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Mar 5, 2025
A Numbers Game | March 5, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | March 5, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:08
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, V Sports Betting Network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. My name is, uh, Gil Alexander.
0:18
That's Kelly Bidlin to my left, to your right, with the, uh, two finger salute right there. That's right, yep. From Kelly.
0:24
Uh, still to come this hour, we will have, uh, Jason Weingart from Under a Cloud of Smoke, and, uh, Kelly needs to talk some golf with us, as will Byron Lindequist.
0:33
The 2023, he's a Golf Writer of the Year Award- Mm-hmm... 2023. What does FSWA stand for? Byron, Byron crushes it. Fantasy Sports Writers Association, I believe. Uh, Fantasy... Yes, that's correct.
0:45
That's absolutely correct. Uh, you know what his, uh, his Twitter handle is? Model Maniac. He's great, great on Twitter. Must, uh, must follow if you're a golf bettor or do DFS or anything like that.
0:55
He's been on the show before. Been on the show before. We love Byron, yeah. Always sounds good on radio, too, when you bring in a South African accent and talk golf. Lindequist. Love that name.
1:04
Uh, Paul Spoor standing by here momentarily from FanGraphs. Uh, Wet Willy Colon has chimed in on Twitter, all in caps. He's laughing. He says, "JBT is my guy. He's just a Laker hater."
1:12
I almost crashed my car right now, Gil. Um, sorry about that. That was my favorite Twitter beef for, like, three days. It was fantastic. Cowboys_Cubs1, "Yo, I'm sorry.
1:21
If you come from the future, you damn well better be handing over Biff's sports almanac, or else consider yourself dead to me.
1:26
I'll take a baseball bat to your DeLorean's flux capacitor, and you'll be stuck in commie Super Bowlist purgatory." A reference to, of course, Back to the Future from prime time.
1:37
Uh, Paul Spoor, as mentioned, joining us now from Austin, Texas. Uh, you can follow him on Twitter at Spoor, S-P-O-R-E-R. He comes to us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Uh, he works for FanGraphs.
1:48
Paul, how you doing, man? I'm doing well. It is the best month of the year. I think March and October battle each other, and I, I love both. Uh, you know, we got playoffs for the fall, my birthday in October.
2:01
But March, March takes it because the start of baseball, uh, the weather turning. I'm somebody who desperately hates cold weather, so- Mm-hmm... uh, very excited with this month. It's action packed, though. It's nonstop.
2:13
And I know you like college basketball, too, so that plays into that as well. Big time. Love March. Um, for those who, who are new to you, uh, I will say you write for FanGraphs.
2:21
For those who don't know, FanGraphs, I probably stared at that website more between the years 2011 and 2017 than any website that I've ever stared at in my life combined, um, handicapping baseball on a nightly basis.
2:34
So you work for FanGraphs, but you really have carved out a baseball life. Explain to us the other st- things that you do. Yes.
2:41
In addition to that, I am the content director for a game called Out of the Park Baseball, and, uh, their Perfect Team segment.
2:48
Uh, that, that game, you, you basically collect virtual cards, uh, from across baseball history, build your team, and play against other people. It's, it, it's a managed, it's a simulation game, basically.
2:59
Um, if you play MLB The Show, think Diamond Dynasty, but again, you're not getting on the sticks. You're more the manager and, and GM in this case.
3:06
And so I have to basically pull from all of baseball history and create a content plan that flows over the course of the year with cards coming out every week, uh, as we kind of scale across history and, uh, and, and deliver cards, uh, basically from everybody that you can think of except for, except for the big-headed guy.
3:25
Barry Bonds does not allow us to, uh- Oh. I- I was just gonna ask. Yeah. Uh, you know, there, there's a few other guys, uh, s- scabs, uh, people who crossed the picket line.
3:34
I'd, I'd love to put out a fun little, like, Kevin Millar card, but it's not allowed 'cause of MLB does not allow pe-... Benny Agbayani. I, I wanna throw a Be- Benny Agbayani out there, but I can't.
3:44
He was unfortunately a scab. [laughs] Uh, that means a replacement player.
3:47
I know that's a kind of a derogatory term to call them scabs, and, uh, you know, Millar was obviously eventually accepted by his teammates very much and a big part of that Boston team.
3:55
But he unfortunately cannot be done. And then there's some unsavory folks that, uh, that we don't get into that you can probably guess some of them. Hmm. Not everyone you'd think of.
4:05
You know, we, we put out Pete Rose cards. We acknowledge his, uh, unsavoriness. But, uh, it, it's a lot of fun because, uh, the... I've learned so much about baseball history, in particular the Negro Leagues.
4:15
The depth that I've gotten into the Negro Leagues to learn more about it through this job with Out of the Park Baseball, it's unbelievable.
4:23
And so now, you know, an annual tradition for me in the fall and winter is to watch Ken Burns Baseball. Literally every year I watch it. Wow. But each,
4:31
I know more of the people he's talking about in those first four or five episodes, and it's amazing. This year was the best. I, I don't think there was a single player I didn't know.
4:41
Yeah, everyone, every obscure person, all the little stories that he had, I'm like, "I know who that is.
4:46
I know who Fleet Walker is," the Black player that, you know, could have broken the color barrier in the early 1900s if not for some virulent racist pieces of crap like Cap Anson, and everybody, you know, in between there.
4:57
And so yeah, it, it's a basically a way to learn baseball history while, you know, if you remember What If Sports from way back when, Perfect Team is kind of an iteration of that in a way.
5:07
So it's a lot of fun, but it keeps me very busy between Out of the Park Baseball and FanGraphs, especially this month. And is... That, that is fascinating.
5:14
Out of, Out of Park, Out of the Park Baseball is what it's called.
5:18
Um, I as- uh, from what you're saying, I assume you believe that those Negro League players would have just absolutely destroyed in, in Major League Baseball were they allowed to play? Undoubtedly.
5:28
Uh, uh, tons of them would have. And, you know- Yeah... they, there's some of them probably would've been mediocre or scrubs- Sure... 'cause not every single one was the best player ever.
5:36
But their top players would've been just as good as if, if not better than the top players. When j- when people call Josh Gibson the Black Babe Ruth, they're not wrong They're absolutely not wrong.
5:46
Bullet Joe Rogan, interesting name given the, today's landscape, but he was one of the best two-way players there was. He can hit and pitch, and that's the beauty too.
5:53
So many of them had to be two-way players because they didn't have super deep teams. And obviously, if they had been able to play Major League Baseball, maybe they would've specialized one way or the other. So in...
6:03
I, I'm not gonna say it was good that they were, that they were segregated out, but we got to see them t- uh, flex all of their skills as opposed to just hitting or just pitching because they had these smaller teams when they were barnstorming.
6:14
But they used to kick the crap out of, uh, you know, teams with Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, and that- Yeah...
6:18
and hey, not saying those Babe Ruth teams, uh, never won, but the Negro Leagues held their own, and what an amazing league it was.
6:24
You know, Bob Kendrick has been a big part of bringing it to MLB The Show with some of the great storyline stuff they have, and I've been, you know, showcasing the players there in, in OOTP and helping people understand how great the Negro Leagues were.
6:36
And Paul plays in about 25 fantasy leagues or something like that- Right, right... as well.
6:40
Not as many these days, but, uh, I do play in a lot, uh, over at the NFBC primarily, and, uh, I'm, uh, very excited for that too because those drafts are, are getting going.
6:48
And I'll have the main event draft in late March, which is the big, uh, the big super event that a bunch of us do. Paul Spoor, A Baseball Life. That's right. I love it. To the modern day.
6:58
You also like to dabble a little bit in the betting world. Yes. Uh, you've been, you've been scouring some of the apps for bets that you like. Uh, I leave it to you. Where do you wanna go first?
7:07
Well, I'm gonna go with some lower tier teams that I think can beat their win totals this year, and we can start with the hat that I'm wearing. Walgreens, baby. Uh, no, I'm just [laughs]
7:17
But no, uh, the Washington Nationals I think are, are an intriguing ball club this year. 72 and a half wins is what I'm seeing over on DraftKings, and I think that they can get there. I really, really do.
7:27
Uh, it's a remarkably compelling lineup. The, the way to really get there, though, to, to beat this number is that the pitching will ha- will have to come through.
7:34
But I think if you look one to nine, that is a solid lineup, especially at the top. Like, it's, it's legitimately good.
7:40
CJ Abrams, Dylan Crews, James Wood, the pickups of Nathaniel Lowe, and the return of Josh Bell, uh, and, and then Luis Garcías at six.
7:47
That's a top six that can rival a lot of high quality teams these days, let alone, you know, a, a mediocre team. Kyber Ruiz, uh, they have Paul DeJong penciled in at third right now.
7:56
I like a guy named José Taina to get that job, and then Jacob Young was a brilliant center fielder last year. He packed on 20 pounds of muscle, a- and he's the number nine hitter.
8:05
So the lineup, I think, is set and impressive. The pitching's gonna need to come through, but 72 and a half is not a big ask. And I know it's a difficult division, but they've got some pitchers too.
8:14
Mackenzie Goedert, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker all had, uh, stints of high quality last year. And keep an eye on Michael Soroka. Yes, this is the same guy that you're thinking of from the Braves- Yeah... 52 years ago.
8:25
He goes by Michael now instead of Mike. Injuries have ravaged this guy. It's been a nightmare, and I really hope he can stay healthy. He's only 27 years old, though. He's up to 95 miles an hour here in spring.
8:35
It's only been one start. It's only been three innings. Let's, you know, tap the brakes. But he's penciled in as their number five.
8:40
So if they can run five deep, the bullpen is a bit of a question, and that can always hold back a young team. But relievers also kind of pop up out of nowhere, right? You, you can cultivate a bullpen on the fly.
8:51
So I like them at 72 and a half to hit the over there, even in that difficult division. I'll stay in the NL and I'll go to the Central, which I believe is remarkably wide open.
9:01
Now, I will say I'm upset with this team for not doing something, but they've got a terrible owner, Bob Nutting, one of the worst in baseball. I'm of course talking about the Pittsburgh Pirates.
9:10
You didn't even have to go out and try to get Juan Soto, right? I'm not saying that.
9:14
You didn't even have to go out and get Pete Alonso, although th- that would've been a good guy to throw a ton of money at for what their situation is.
9:20
But you could've signed a couple of quality hitters and really changed your potential fate here.
9:26
And yet still, even with the critiques that I have here, I like them over 77 and a half because they're kind of the opposite of the Nats. The pitching is in order. The hitting needs to get there.
9:36
If th- if you combine these two teams, they'd be a, they'd be a, a World Series team. I'm not even joking there. If you took Pittsburgh pitching with the Nats hitting, I'd b- I'd be putting them in the playoffs for sure.
9:46
That said, I'll take 77 and a half wins. Paul Skenes is a legitimate ace. Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, Andrew Heaney behind him is another quality three pitchers. I think David Bednar can rebound as the closer.
9:57
The bridge to Bednar is a little bit shaky, so similar to the Nats there. And then again, the lineup is, uh, a weakness. I, I will no doubt, uh, you know, cop to that.
10:06
Tommy Pham was a good pickup, but he should've been, like, their third or fourth pickup, not their marquee hitting pickup.
10:11
But Brian Reynolds, O'Neal Cruz, Andrew McCutchen, Joey Bart, that's a good two through five there to go with Pham on the top.
10:18
Gonna need a Nick Gonzalez, Kubrin Hayes, or Nick Yorke, somebody to really step up and bring something to the table with the hitting. And I do like the trade for Spencer Horwitz.
10:27
They, uh, they, they got involved in that, like, basically like a three-way deal the way it worked with Andrés Jiménez going to Toronto from Cleveland, and then immediately, uh, Cleveland flipped Spencer Horwitz over to Pittsburgh, and I really like that pickup.
10:41
Unfortunately, he broke his wrist, so he's working back from that, but he's gonna be back within, you know, pretty early in the season. I think maybe miss a few weeks.
10:48
And he could be the answer over there at first base for them. So I think the Pirates over 77 and a half is looking nice. That's a wide open division.
10:55
Nobody really stepped up except for the Cubs to go out and do anything, even though that's a very winnable division. The Cardinals sat on their hands. They're a blue blood organization.
11:03
If I was a Cardinals fan, I'd be livid at the fact that they did nothing given how winnable that division is. But hey, that leaves it open for the Pirates to get 77 and a half wins on the over.
11:12
And then I'll finish with another low-end team that I like to surprise this year, the Athletics. No city. We can't call them any city. Uh, I've called them Oakland 52 million times on my podcast. I just...
11:23
I'm still calling the, the, uh, uh, Chargers San Diego, but I like the Athletics over 71 and a half, and I hear the music here, so I know I gotta get going.
11:31
[laughs] But they got pieces all over, a, a deep rotation, a quality lineup, and I really think the Athletics can go 71 and a half over easily. I like that probably the strongest of the three. All right.
11:42
We'll have you on for two next time. We'll get to all the rest, individual stuff as well. Sounds great. Paul Spoor, everybody, from FanGraphs right here on Numbers Game. Jason Weingarten next.
11:56
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN fans, it's time to plan your Vegas getaway. Circa Las Vegas owner Derek Stevens offering you 15% off at three incredible properties.
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12:19
Book your stay at circullasvegas.com and use VSiN15 to get 15% off. See how we do that? Your Vegas adventure starts here. It's Gil Alexander. I just wanna read this one tweet after Spohrer.
12:31
Rick Olier: "Uh, Spohrer coming through with an all time remembersome dudes. Agbayani, Millar, and Bullet Joe Rogan. [laughs] It's like a 15-pointer on the immaculate grid." Do you play Immaculate Grid?
12:42
No, no, I really never do. Oh, it's fantastic. Yeah. Will Hill and Spohrer are probably the best two players I've ever seen. Really? Oh my God. These guys, they're, they're ridiculous.
12:50
I only say 'cause I thought Felika was up there. Uh, he's up there, but he's not quite. Like, like Fel- uh, Will and Spohrer, daily, i- the lower score the better, go sub 50 sometimes. Wow. They're always sub 100.
13:05
If they, like, get over 100 they think that it's a, a failure. [laughs] But basically for those that don't know, Immaculate Grid is, is for those of us who are baseball nerds through the years.
13:13
It's just, you know, it's a, it's a nine Brady Bunch square grid. Mm-hmm. The top row and the bottom row will have, like, you know, there'll be categories, right? Like Jep- Jeopardy categories on each side.
13:23
And if you can pick a player that, oh, had 20 stolen bases in a season and was also a rookie of the year, if you can come up with a player like that, the more obscure the pick, the better. Got it.
13:35
So it doesn't, it doesn't reward for obvious, and so that's what, what makes it an awesome game.
13:40
By the way, uh, Spohrer, a little review here on his picks, uh, juxtaposed against other baseball experts that we've had on.
13:46
Uh, with the Washington Nationals now, I have famously, not, not famously, but at least I have said it feels like everybody's bullish on the Reds, right?
13:54
Everybody's going over on the Reds, just sort of anecdotally on our show. Everybody's going over on the Red Sox, and now I feel like everybody's going over on the Nationals, right? Mm-hmm.
14:04
P- Peta liked the Nationals, Spohrer liked the Nationals. I wanna say Adam Burke did, too. Yeah, especially that. I feel like that one, that's the one most recently- Yes... that I feel like we've heard the most. Yeah.
14:13
There was, though, a disagreement, much like with me and Adam Burke on the I- on the Guardians. I'm under, he's over. Peta went under with me. Um, Royals I think, I don't know if we've had any disagreement.
14:25
I've heard network wide we have disagreement. But, uh, the Bucs, the, the, uh, the Pittsburgh Pirates, Joe Peta staunchly on the under. Spohrer today on the over- Mm-hmm... with the Pittsburgh Pirates. So that seems...
14:37
W- we'll need a tiebreaker. If only we had a person that could tiebreak this. Jason Weingarten joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. @spreadapedia is where you can follow him on Twitter.
14:46
Uh, Jason comes to us from under a cloud of smoke. How you doing, Jason? Good morning. How's it going? How's it going? Do you have an opinion on the Pittsburgh Pirates?
14:54
I think, uh, I think they have a couple pretty good pitchers and one really, really good pitcher. Um, not super excited about them as an organization.
15:06
I think they're aware that they have a very small window with Skeens and he's unlikely to re-sign with them. Um, so you really gotta put your, your best team forward here.
15:17
But honestly, uh, 75 and a half wins is probably right about where I'd have them. So not, not really a very exciting play for me.
15:27
I'd, I'd rather approach the Pirates on a, a game by game basis, 'cause you know every time Skeens pitches it's gonna have its own market, gonna be a thing, you know.
15:37
Until he has a bad start, he's, he's gonna be the biggest thing. Yeah, Peta had a great breakdown on it yesterday.
15:43
I think we sent out the, uh, we did send out the clip on it yesterday for those who wanna check it out on, on the Twitter feed. Um, okay, we're getting close here, Jason.
15:51
12 days away from the Dodgers and the Cubs playing in Tokyo. Have you made some bets yet? You've been like really lollygagging on this. What's up? It's just tough with a lot of these markets.
16:02
Like, you look at the playoff market right now, the, uh, the second highest odds to make the playoffs, the Yankees, are minus 400. You know what the Dodgers' odds to make the playoffs are? Oh, geez. I can't imagine.
16:14
Take a guess. Minus, uh, minus 2,000. I don't know. What are they? Minus 8,000. Yeah. Oh my gosh. Yeah. That makes sense. To make the playoffs? To make the playoffs. Wow. It's a, yeah.
16:25
It, it skews a lot of these markets, 'cause then you kinda gotta go and say, "Well, do I wanna play the game and, you know, find the other, uh, the other teams to make the market, or make the playoff market?"
16:37
'Cause you know, like, you know, obviously the Dodgers are gonna be penciled in for one of those spots more, more than likely. Um, you mentioned the Reds. It's not exactly a secret the Reds are improving.
16:49
Um, so you really, if you're looking at futures, I mean, you're really kinda looking for long shots or looking at stuff to fade the Dodgers. And a lot of it, I, I just don't wanna fade the Dodgers.
17:01
I, I think the Dodgers are likely, you know, I'm not gonna say they're gonna win the World Series, but they're likely gonna be one of the last couple teams standing.
17:09
And, you know, you have to give me a really compelling price on something to, to fade them, and I'm just not seeing it a lot of places. All right. Forget t- teams for a second, though. What about awards?
17:19
What about individual, you know, offensive or, you know, offensive markets like homers and stuff like that? Yeah. So I just started, I started looking at the home run markets this weekend.
17:28
I found a couple good ones I like at FanDuel. For example, Cody Bellinger, his over under is 20 and a half. So they're basically asking you, do you think Corey Bell- uh, Cody Bellinger is gonna stay healthy this season?
17:41
And, you know, I think 20 and a half home runs is a pretty low number for a guy like Bellinger who we know can, can hit home runs. Uh, Corey Seager, another guy, another favorite of mine. Yeah.
17:53
His under is 28 and a half. Uh, minus 105 to the over. I think he goes well over that number if he stays healthy. Jose Ramirez, another one of our favorites, he's, o- his over-under's also 28 and a half, minus 105.
18:07
I think there's a guy who very likely can go over his number. Um, then there's one more. I'm trying to find it here. Let me see. Oh, Saiase Suzuki, um, over under 19 and a half home runs.
18:20
I think that's another short number that's basically, uh, saying that they don't expect him to play a full season. If he plays a full season, he can go over that 19 and a half number.
18:31
So, uh, I started looking at home runs, like I said, and those were the first couple. Um, obviously there's a couple other ones, like Mike Trout for example, he's 24 and a half with his over-under.
18:44
Um, that's such a low number. I know Trout hasn't been healthy for a while, but you know, stuff like that's getting my attention. So, um, slowly I'm, I'm adding to some of these positions.
18:56
But in terms of futures like I've had in the past, it's relatively light. And you know, when you look at these markets, I'm sure we'll do a, a baseball mega pod sooner than later.
19:07
We can talk about sort of the, the heavy favorites in all of these markets. I mean, it's, it's a weird year with, with a lot of, a lot of heavy favorites in, in every awards market to start.
19:19
What about rookies of the year? Because I know that's kind of been your bread and butter through the years. Anybody specific pop out on any of those markets?
19:27
Sadly, and this isn't like a, I'm trying to, to keep a secret to get down or anything, it's really not like that, um, I could say I have zero bets on Rookie of the Year so far. Wow.
19:38
And it, it's not 'cause I don't like anybody, it's just 'cause there aren't very many good prices, you know? Jason Dominguez is three to one in the, the AL, and, uh, Roki Sasaki is two to one in the NL.
19:51
By the way, he pitched really well last night and, uh, pretty, pretty excited about him. Um, I'm not even saying those numbers are unreasonable, I'm just saying they're, they're not particularly bettable.
20:03
Um, although I am curious, is Sasaki, if he's as good as he, you know, as, as we think he is, I would be interested in finding a really off-market Cy Young number, um, just because he's, he's that good.
20:18
You know, he, he's like 65 to 1 at Vandel for Cy Young, and you look at some of the guys who are ahead of him, like Justin Steele, Jared Jones, Spencer Strider. Spencer Strider's 40 to 1, Sasaki's 65 to 1.
20:32
Strider has a 0.0 chance of winning the Cy Young this year after, you know, coming back late and... Yeah, I don't wanna say 0.0. Let's say 0.1.
20:42
Um, so Sasaki's got a pretty good Cy Young number if you just kinda look at some of the guys ahead of him who don't really have a actual shot. And then exhibition baseball, you're doing it on a daily basis.
20:54
You came on here last week, you're like, "Hey, I make, uh, $750 to 1,000 every day doing this." Do you wait for lineups, or are you looking at something specific already today?
21:04
Um, well, I just sit in the car and listen to the radio and, and live bet when the ball is in play. Oh, I see. Just that. Or that. There's no other [laughs]... That's the only thing you do. I get it.
21:15
Actually, uh, the worst part was my, my radio stopped working for a day. You know, like some sort of ele- [laughs]... electrical problem.
21:23
Driving around, all of a sudden I can't even listen to the Dodger game on the radio. Um, so I had to come home and set up a regular AM radio and do it that way. Um- Oh my God, it's like 1975 with this guy.
21:34
[laughs] Jesus, driving around town. "Where's a RadioShack at?" [laughs] Springs training betting's pretty good.
21:41
Um, the only thing, I don't love giving out a lot of the, the bets that I make, 'cause I either make them really early in the morning, um, and then some of the bets I make with, with one of my friends, he specifically said, "Don't share these bets because if they start moving on, on screen, I can't give them out anymore."
21:58
So, um, really not much to, to say there other than, you know, just look at the lineups and pay attention to who's traveling and who isn't and who the backups are. It's, it's a pretty easy game for spring training.
22:11
Um, it's really sad that, that it only lasts one month of the year. But in general, I'd say this is a slightly slower baseball ramp-up than usual, even with the season barely two weeks away.
22:23
Like, uh, like you said, my, my futures are lighter than usual. That will change, but at the moment it's, it's a very light season in the futures. All right, Jason, The Sandman is sweeping you out, man. We appreciate it.
22:36
Pleasure. Talk to you later. Jason Weingarten, everybody. AM radio, some people say you shouldn't have given that out on the show either. Golf with Byron Lindiquist on the other side. Arnold Palmer.
22:48
It's a numbers game with VSiN, the sports betting network. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the numbers game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
22:58
Don't forget, it's the biggest betting month of the year. March, championship week tipping off with the NBA and NHL playoff races heating up, PGA Tour in full swing, and MLB opening day just around the corner.
23:09
There's nonstop excitement to wager on. Stay one step ahead with a VSiN Pro subscription, your ultimate betting playbook for the tournament and beyond.
23:15
For as little as 9.99, new subscribers get full access to expert analysis and best bets from our hosts and guests, daily emails with exclusive picks and insights, deep dive stats to help you make smarter bets, plus our upcoming March Mania betting guide, your key to winning this tournament season.
23:30
Guess we're not allowed to use March Madness, is that correct? March Mania we went with? Don't bet blind, bet smarter. Start your VSiN Pro subscription today for just 9.99 at vsin.com/subscribe.
23:40
That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlan, you wanna talk some golf? Let's do it, man. Big one this week. Big one. Fourth signature event of the year, Gil, already. [laughs] Is it really? Yeah, four.
23:53
Four already. [laughs] The signature events being the elevated events, as we used to call them. Correct. Yeah. Uh, the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
23:59
To help us along with that, we bring in our old buddy, Byron Lindiquist, who, uh, by the way, gotta give him his, uh, street cred here, 2023 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Golf Writer of the Year, co-host of Back Nine Bets and Fantasy Golf Degenerates on the Mayo Media Network, and of course, uh, one of our favorite Twitter handles, @themodelmaniac.
24:17
Byron joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Byron? Gentlemen, thank you for that wonderful introduction.
24:23
It's a lot colder here in the middle of Iowa, but I've got this, uh, Florida shirt rocking and rolling, so we're gonna have a good time- [laughs]... down in, in the warmer weather, hopefully.
24:32
Um, we were just talking about this off air real quick. We, we gave Paul Sporer a whole background for those who haven't heard him before.
24:38
Um, you came over from, people didn't detect already, you, you're from South Africa, your accent, from South Africa to pl- to play on a golf scholarship in Iowa? Correct.
24:49
Southeast I- William Penn University, the Statesmen. So, uh, six years there, three and a half degrees, and a wife. A good- [laughs]... good period of time over there. And a wife. You picked up a wife along the way.
24:59
Yeah. Beautiful wife. That's great. Were you aware of the weather, uh, before coming over?
25:04
Everyone said, you know, it's gets a little cold in the winter, but as a South African, we just imagined that would be, like, 32, 30 degrees at nighttime. You go play some golf with a sweater on during the day. Yeah. No.
25:16
And then they also told me that it was pretty flat, which I do agree with, but everywhere they couldn't put a corn field or a bean field, they put a golf course, because golf courses in Iowa are pretty damn hilly.
25:26
So, uh- Yeah... yeah, don't believe everyone's words from across the pond. Before we talk about the Arnold Palmer, I, I said off air, I go, "Hey, you don't have any Masters futures, do you?"
25:35
And you're like, "Well, I don't have Masters, but I do have this." What was that? I have a Rory McIlroy PGA Championship future, and it's a 11 to one future out there.
25:45
I'm sure you can shop around and find that number out there somewhere. He has won four majors in his career. He's won four times at Quail Hollow, where the PGA Championship will be happening this year.
25:56
So I'm calling this the Holy Pentinity. I don't even know that, if that's a word. [laughs] But he's gonna win his fifth major and his fifth time at Quail this year. That's my... All right.
26:06
And for those who are, again, just to recap, what used to be the last major of the year is now the second major of the year after the Masters.
26:13
So the Masters is April, the PGA now in May, of course, which will be at Quail Hollow, as, uh, Byron just said. Then you get US Open. Wait, did I mess that up? Then you get US Open and then Open Championship. Yeah. Yep.
26:24
Right. Used to be that PGA was at the end of the line.
26:26
All right, Arnold Palmer Invitational, where Scottie Scheffler is your short shot at plus 320, and the aforementioned Rory McIlroy the only other person in single digits at plus 750.
26:37
Let's start with, uh, what are the characteristics needed to succeed on this course, sir? The characteristics off the tee are twofold.
26:45
You either need to be hyper accurate, as in hitting every single fairway as many times as you can, or just have tons of distance off the tee because the rough around you is ultra thick.
26:55
Then on the iron front, you're gonna need great, great iron play from 150 yards and out, particularly out the rough, because getting these fairways is extremely difficult, and hitting out the rough, out of the thick rough here is important.
27:08
So you're gonna be doing that about half the time.
27:10
And then, you know, you get the casual Bermuda putting surface here, so you're gonna have to be able to make those 5 to 15 footers on these Bermuda greens while hacking it out the thick cabbage around them.
27:19
So a full complement of skills and some good course history, because this venue's got some nuances, for sure. Okay. Uh, in the outrights, did you make any bets? I've got a Rory McIlroy problem.
27:32
I think if you come at the king, you best not miss. [laughs] And Rory, um, is coming at Scottie Scheffler, who is missing a little to the left off the tee at the moment.
27:40
You know, he missed the ravioli and got his hand a couple weeks ago. Yeah. So he's still kind of recovering from that. He's got a bit...
27:49
Some people have rust, he's got some, some scab maybe, but I think he doesn't have the A game that he has typically shown up with to start the season. Maybe Rory's A game can take down Scottie's B game.
28:01
We saw Rory at Pebble Beach absolutely demolish that golf course, and he's had great success around here in the past.
28:08
Yeah, you, you have a, when you say you have a Rory problem, meaning that you're all about Rory here in, uh, both tournaments that we just mentioned. Uh, so you did- Yes, sir...
28:15
you did bet Rory at plus 750 here to win, to win the, uh, tournament. Correct. I miss a d- I miss a dominant, like, I like knowing that Scheffler is dominant. Yeah.
28:24
I feel like the tour just is diminished just a little bit not knowing that. Um, anything else? If you d- if you were gonna play anything longer than that, who might be on your radar?
28:34
If I were to play someone longer than that, I think Hideki Matsuyama is one of these enigmas. You n- you just never know what you're gonna be getting from him, and we saw what he got up to at the Tournament of Champions.
28:45
He's a Masters champion. He's won three times in the last cup- couple months. So at 25 to 1, I don't think he's a terrible bet. He's played quite nicely around here in the past as well.
28:55
He's got the skill set needed to succeed at a venue like this. The putter for him has also shown up a lot, like, which has been his big bugaboo.
29:02
So I think he can absolutely take advantage of that, and, um, at 25 to 1, I really fancy that one. Yeah. This is a signature event, an elevated event, if you will, fourth of the year.
29:12
Uh, all the big names are, not all the big names, but most of them are there. Um, okay. You bet this all kinds of different ways as well, top five, top 10, top 20, top 30. Tell us how. Beautiful.
29:23
So I'll start off with Aldrik Portgita, who is one of my South African natives, and he is just a demantler of big, difficult golf courses. He is second to Rory McIlroy in driving distance.
29:35
He played really well at the Nedbank Challenge back in South Africa. He played well at Torrey Pines, which is a similar kind of a golf course, and Mexico, another long venue. Top five for Aldrik, 20 to 1.
29:46
Top 10, eight to one. And a top 20 for a plus 300 over there. I think that's a nice little ladder to have some fun with. He's a very talented youngster. He's 20 years old, and he drives it a country mile.
29:59
So looking forward to him just really nuking it off the tee and, and getting his job done in that department. And Rory McIlroy is an avocado. I've called him an avocado a couple times this week already.
30:11
You never quite know what you're gonna get, even though you're holding a ripe avo in your hand. He's finished top five every single time he's finished top 10 in the last 12 months.
30:20
You have to go back to the Open Championship in 2023 When he finished outside the top five, when he finished inside the top 10 in a single tournament on the PGA Tour. So every time he pops, he pops.
30:32
So I love that top five bet on him at a golf course he's played well at. And then Min Woo Lee, top 30, even money. You will find Min Woo Lee inside the top 30 in 18 of his last 25 starts around the world.
30:45
So he's only got one top 10 during that stretch, but he is just a top 30 connoisseur, and I think he'll find himself inside the top 30 at a golf course that will reward his distance this week.
30:56
Byron, you do a great job on Twitter. I always tell people to give you a follow when you, especially breaking down success in the top 10, top 20, top 30 markets, um, that you and I both like to attack.
31:06
Uh, just wanted to ask you about Schauffele coming back this week and, and just thoughts on him, 'cause there are s- prices that are all over the place.
31:13
I mean, I feel like I've seen him as short as 15, 16 to 1, and as long as 24, 25 to 1. How do you think he's gonna look this week? Yeah.
31:21
So Xander Schauffele's one of the guys that hasn't had great success at a golf course, at this golf course in the past.
31:27
But just taking a look, uh, Kelly, at his top 10 market, if you take a look at his recent odds, it's all negative. Like minus 150, minus 170, minus 200 at times.
31:37
He's plus 170 out there for a top 10, and he's a perennial top tenner. So if you're looking at Xander Schauffele, maybe he's got a little bit of rust, but still not enough to keep him outside the top 10.
31:48
Maybe enough to keep him from winning, but I love that top 10 market for Xander Schauffele, whi- which has been his most profitable in a big, big way the last couple years. But, but no bet, just to clarify. Yeah.
31:59
No bet on him? No. I- I'm a very passive aggressive bettor. I don't want to attack someone that's coming off of a injury.
32:08
I've bet him twice, at the Zozo and the Sentry, top 10 markets at, like, minus 200, and he hurt me because of the rib, you know? Yeah. So we didn't know he had a rib injury, and now he's coming back from that.
32:18
We're not entirely sure how well he's playing, so we'll hang tight on that bet for a while. I like that, a passive aggressive bettor. Let's recap Byron. Byron Lindacue's, uh, Arm- Arnold Palmer Invitational bets.
32:27
Rory outright, plus 850. Uh, you can get him at plus 750 right now, but shop around. There could be a better price than that. Uh, top five, Rory, uh, at plus 150, and Aldrick Potgieter at, uh, 20 to 1.
32:39
Top 10, Potgieter at, uh, eight to one. We're going Potgieter or Potgieter? Potgieter. Potgieter. Top- Although, although Byron would probably be the guy to officially ask that. [laughs] Yeah, yeah.
32:48
How do we pronounce that, Byron? What's the official? You're gonna have to eat a couple bananas so you can say Potgieter. [laughs] Potgieter. There you go. I knew we were both wrong.
32:55
And then three to one on the top 20 for me. Uh, three to one. Yes. Eight to one on, uh, on the top 20, is it, for- No, three to one on the top 20 Three to one on the top 20. Three to one on the top 20. Pardon me.
33:03
Three to one on the top 20, eight to one on the top 10. Um, top 30, Min Woo Lee, uh, Min Woo Lee, pardon me, at even money. Did you have Potgieter in Mexico when he, uh, lost out at the end to the great Brian Campbell?
33:16
The great Brian Campbell hurt my heart at the Mexico Open, where I had Aldrick, and I also had him at Torrey Pines for the Farmers, where he was inside the final group going into that one. Oh. Ah.
33:25
So the heartbreak's been there, but he came back to a top five. All right, maybe the third time is, is the charm here with him. Thank you, Byron. Great seeing you, man. Thank you, boys. Byron Lindacue, everybody.
33:35
You can follow him on Twitter, once again, at TheModelManiac. Kelly's thoughts on the Arnold Palmer and more is next. Numbers Game, right here at VSiN.
33:49
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game, live from Circa. It's Gil Alexander. This is Kelly Bill with everybody. I'm not sure if you've met. He's, uh, producer number nine.
34:00
So much more than a producer. When I say so much more, uh, he really likes himself some NBA. You know what else he likes?
34:06
He likes himself some golf, so the whole time that Byron was talking about golf, Kelly was feeding to get in on this. So now's your chance, sir. Yeah, yeah, Arnold Palmer Invitational this week.
34:15
Like, we were joking, the, uh, f- fourth signature event already. It's just funny how they stack these up again early in the year now. Yeah. Um, you know, we're still a month away from the first major. Uh, but yeah.
34:25
Explain that to folks, by the way, 'cause there's some, some folks who are listening that might not know. What do you mean signature event?
34:29
Yeah, signur- uh, signature event, so this is basically the PGA Tour's reaction to LIV to try to get the big star players more money.
34:36
They do their more invitational-like fields, shorter fields, um, uh, that are all invite only, and that they pay o- they pay out much bigger purses.
34:45
So if you are playing in something like one and dones, uh, very important to realize that the p- purses are much larger at these events.
34:52
You wanna use some of the bigger names, uh, some of the bigger favorites in events like this. So there are...
34:58
I don't even know what we're up to, six, seven in the year, something like that now, and then you get the ma- the majors as well that come along. Bri- brief aside, I see Koepka wants back on the PGA Tour.
35:06
What's gonna happen with all this? Yeah, who knows? I don't... The, the, the president's getting involved, Gil, so it will all get figured out. [laughs] Sure, I know. Did he, did he cover that last night? I don't...
35:14
[laughs] I could not stay, I couldn't watch the whole thing. Well, we'll go ask Dave Ross. Maybe he has the answer. [laughs] Sure he does.
35:20
I mean, like, he actually probably will have an impact, and I have more faith now- Yeah... that this will come together. But I mean, we've been talking about it for what? Two years now. Oh, yeah.
35:30
Like, I'm not holding my breath any time soon, and I think, I think the rep- I mean, the reports, it was a radio interview. I, I think the Brooks Koepka...
35:39
part is, like Broo- I don't think Brooke, Brooke screws around, so if he wants it all back on the PGA Tour, he'll figure out a way of getting out of LIV and, and getting back on there somehow.
35:47
Is he gonna have to give back money? Pro- probably. I mean, he's there under contract, so I d- however that stuff works. I don't know the length of his contract. Right.
35:54
I don't know if it's coming up, you know what I mean? All right. Sorry, sorry, didn't mean to take you off the, uh, center here. No, you're fine. You're fine. Yeah. So yeah, API, you're gonna have a 72-golfer field.
36:02
Now, this is one... The other one you can keep track of the signature events is all the ones that have big names attached to them, like Arnold Palmer, there is a cut still.
36:10
Because all the big, the, uh, all the big-time golfers, Gil, still wanted a cut in their event, no matter how many were invited.
36:16
So the [laughs] we always joke about this, 'cause yes, the look on your face is great right now. 72 golfers, that is not a typo, top 50 and ties will still make the cut- Oh my God... after 36 holes.
36:26
So, so you could have like 11 guys cut from this? Uh, I mean, even, even worse, Gil. Yeah. In theory, you could have everybody, because it's top 50 and ties, plus if you're within 10 shots of the lead. Oh my God.
36:36
So at a tough course like Bay Hill is, um, there, in theory, that could happen. It has not happened to have a signature- Wait, the more awkward thing, the more awkward thing is gonna be like one guy got cut.
36:45
Yeah, one guy. Yeah. Yeah, exactly, exactly. So look, uh, Byron did a great job rolling through the course. This is really, real... This is a signature event. Bay Hill is gonna test every, every part of your game.
36:56
Ball striking, super important this week if you are doing s- looking at some of your own stats at home. Off the tee and approach, uh, extremely important at this course.
37:04
You gotta keep it out of that rough that is very tough to play out of. Um, fairway width is, I mean, they're not super narrow, but you gotta put it in the right spot. You will see guys club down every once in a while.
37:15
Off the tee's a little tough to figure out at this event, 'cause if they have driver in hand, they can, it really can become a weapon, Gil, but a lot of times they're force, forced to club down to play angles into greens and s- and stuff like that.
37:27
So just keep that all in mind if you are handicapping at home. It is very much a ball striking week on the PGA Tour. Uh, Byron even mentioned it, 150-plus yardage looking at some of those proximity ranges.
37:38
You need guys that are very proficient with long iron play, um, this week. So we've got everybody in, finally in the field. This is, Xander Schauffele's back. This is his big return. Scottie Scheffler's in this field.
37:49
It is finally the first event of the year where you've got all the star power playing in it, and I think that made it very, uh, interesting and tough to figure out how to at- how to attack, uh, Gil, 'cause I do think with the success that Rory McIlroy has had at this course, uh, over the years, and it is a ton, uh, i- is, it's a lot of wins, a lot of top f- uh, win, the top fives, a lot of top fives, a lot of top tens for Rory McIlroy.
38:12
It is one of his favorite courses on the PGA Tour. I think he makes a lot of sense. We've already seen him win this year, uh, a- already. Scottie Scheffler, w- we still, I still think he's ramping up.
38:23
He's already put up some scary numbers, though. Uh, but even his own admission, I don't think he's 100% there yet. So I didn't mess around too much with the outright board.
38:31
I do think it is very lu- uh, likely that it is Scottie Scheffl- Scheffler or Rory McIlroy in this event, uh, uh, in this event. One guy I played was Ludvig Åberg, though. I am going back.
38:41
I think Ludvig belongs, uh, is going to prove this season he belongs up in that conversation with the rest of these guys. So I did play one outright with him. The first bet I made on this event was Rory top five.
38:52
Uh, haven't played an outright price on him yet. Ludvig's getting shorter and shorter, so he might actually drift out to a point where an outright, uh, ends up on my card.
38:59
But ris- n- uh, just for now, a top five on Rory, and then top 20s on Tommy Fleetwood, Akshay Bhatia, and Michael Kim. Uh, Michael Kim played last week. He's been playing very, very well with his irons right now.
39:11
With an approach heavy course, I'm gonna s- uh, go back to him. Uh, props, Ludvig Åberg, top Nordic player minus 140. He'll go up- Top Nordic? Yeah, he'll go up against Viktor Hovland and Chris Ventura in that market.
39:21
Is that a common, uh, prop, Nordic? Nah, they're like all these shops which will, like split it up differently. So that's how Caesars lists it. So, um, just a little geography.
39:31
So Scandinavia would be, uh, Norway, Sweden, and Finland. Nordic adds to Norway, Sweden, and Finland, Iceland, and what's the other one? I have no idea. Denmark. Good job. Denmark. There you go. So five countries.
39:48
That's interesting. Yeah. I've never seen them do that before. Uh, and then one tournament matchup for me so far, Sepp Straka over Robert McIntyre. Sepp Straka killed me on, uh, Sunday.
39:56
I had Berger over Straka in the final round, and Berger was up two strokes. I looked, like after 11, I'm like, "Ah, he's up two strokes, no problem." Yeah. And then Straka just went ballistic. I know.
40:06
I kinda, I kinda had to go away from Berger this week, but he still rates out very highly for me. All right, which brings us to our, uh, GBank Best Bets of the Day. Is that how we wanna do this? Yes. Yeah.
40:14
All right, our GBank Best Bets of the Day, courtesy of GBank, the official bank of VSIN. Uh, began the show with all the, uh, Indian Wells futures. Have we mentioned that Indian Wells starts today on the show?
40:23
[laughs] Uh, tennis' de facto fifth major. Iga to win it at 4/1. Belinda Bencic Q2 at 6/1. All the Bet365 folks who are listening are like, "Oh, we got Bet365.
40:34
We got a, uh, got a stray 9/1 on Belinda Bencic, uh, to win the Q2." Uh, Q3, I went Jessie Pegula plus 550.
40:42
Jessie Pegula with a lot of karma after she, uh, helped out a few other ladies on the tour by, uh, saying, "Hey, you wanna fly in my private jet from Austin to, uh, Indian Wells? Come on." Plus 550 for her to win Q3.
40:53
I also did Naomi Osaka to win Q3 at 9/1. Again, the Bet365 folks out there, stray number on Osaka to win Q3 at 16/1. And then Iga to win her quarter at minus 105. I got no futures on the men's side, none.
41:07
As far as the matches today are concerned, I got four of them. Two on the ladies' side, two on the men's side. On the ladies' side, Renata Zarazua Um, she is taking on Elisabetta Cocciaretto. She's at plus 130.
41:20
That's a fade mainly of Cocciaretto. Um, really boils down to that. Katie Volynets is not as, is not currently at as good of a price as we got. Again, visa.com/picks for subscribers, every host, every guest, every sport.
41:35
So, uh, last night when I put that out, it was plus 123. Volynets now about plus 110, uh, against Ashlyn Krueger.
41:42
On the men's side, you can actually get a better price on Luca Nardi, though, than I did, and this is the one I like the most. I got Luca Nardi plus 139 against Cam Norrie, a former champ here at Indian Wells.
41:51
But Nardi is the guy who beat Djokovic on this surface as a lucky loser last year. Nardi's about plus 149 right now, so he's 10 cents the other way. So have at it.
42:01
And then Tristan Boyer, apparently this is the one that didn't make the picks page for some reason. Should be up there now. Oh, should be up there. Okay, even money versus Alexander, uh, Vukic. Those are mine.
42:09
You, sir, you have any NBA? I do have two NBA plays tonight. Uh, I bet the Blazers plus 10 and a half. I think that number is still around, uh, down to nine and a half.
42:18
I still like it, uh, at the Celtics, so we're gonna be sweating that one. Uh, and then Pistons money line, uh, I laid out minus 130 last night.
42:25
They are four and a half point favorites at the Clippers now, so that one's- Ooh... probably a little out of range. Little out of range. Yeah. Uh, Jim Root, James Patrick Root, don't call him James, though.
42:34
He doesn't like that. Uh, three college hoops plays tonight. He's on NC State. He's on the Wolfpack catching two and a half. He's on the UMass St. Bonnie, uh, under 139, the Bonnies of St.
42:44
Bonaventure, and Louisville laying two touchdowns here against Cal. Louisville minus 14. And then his conference tournament plays.
42:52
Wow, nice job typing these into the, uh, into the proper lines here, guys behind the, uh, glass here. I'm sure the format actually allows them to do that, but that's another story. I wanna give them credit.
43:02
Bradley to win the Missouri Valley, uh, plus 340. Bradley to win the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. Remember, that's the one where Drake is the favorite. He's got Bradley at plus 340.
43:11
Northern Kentucky is the real long shot to win the Horizon at 28 to one. And then he parlayed a couple favorites in a couple tournaments, Central Connecticut and High Point, uh, to win their conference tournaments.
43:22
Montana to win the Big Sky at plus 270, and Omaha, Omaha, plus 450 to win the Summit League. That's from Jim Root. And then Paul Spohrer came on strolling in with some baseball season wins. Nationals over 72 and a half.
43:35
Pirates over 77 and a half. The Athletics over 71 and a half. That from Paulie. And Jason Weingarten with some, uh, individual season longs. Cody Bellinger over 20 and a half home runs.
43:46
Corey Seager over 28 and a half home runs. Jose Ramirez over 28 and a half home runs. And Sayas, uh, Saya Suzuki over 19 and a half home runs. Those from Jason Weingarten.
43:57
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44:05
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44:22
That's visa.com/gbank. Subject credit approval, terms, and conditions apply. We've done all we can do. Stormy is next with Money Moves right here at Visa, the sports betting network. Enjoy.
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