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Mar 5, 2026
A Numbers Game | March 5, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | March 5, 2026 | Hour 2
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47:08
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN.
0:10
V Sports Betting Network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander. Kelly Midlan in the house here. Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Mm-hmm. Um,
0:25
was asking about, uh, Thursday, first day of March Madness seeding here. Our buddy Aaron Oster, he's like, uh, "We ain't got anything here, but we got some Stadium Swim for you if you want." Oh, like seeding seeding.
0:34
I was confused. Okay. Yeah. What? Oh, seating. Yeah. With a T. I'm sorry. Gotcha. S-E-A-T. Yeah. Um, yeah, man. And it's, it's so funny 'cause your, your buddies from out of town are still...
0:45
They still think it's 10 years ago. "Hey man, can you get us this? Can you get us that?" I'm like, "Bro, you have no idea what Vegas has become." Yeah. It just ain't that anymore. I also just don't know, like...
0:58
Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's j- it's just not that anymore. It's just not that. It's just not that. There's a couple still, like, kinda few little secret good spots here- There are. Yeah, there are...
1:06
all right in town, but it's tough, man. [laughs] We get- It's als- and also, you just don't know what people want too, right? Like, Stadium Swim is incredibly unique, right? Like, do you wanna do that?
1:17
Like, that's a day. It's a day at the pool where you're watching games. Do you wanna be at one of the m- you know, monster sports books? Do you wanna be- Yeah...
1:23
in a little bit more quiet, a quiet scenario where you could maybe have a conversation with each other? Imagine that. Imagine that. We get Sweet Speedy the book.
1:32
Duke of the South, "Kobe went to Germany and got stem cells put into his body. That's how he recovered in eight months. Stem cells are a universal cell and helps heal damage, uh, areas of the body faster."
1:43
Yeah, I know that's true, Duke of the South, but remember, then nine games later, there goes the knee. So you just don't know, and Kobe was never the same after that. He was older, right? He was 35. That matters, too.
1:55
Primetime, I don't, I, I just don't think it's... Yeah I thought it was his knee that he went to Germany for. Was his knee not the Achilles? Yeah. I thought it was the Achilles he went to Germany for.
2:03
Primetime, Leon Sanders, "Yo, hey man, does Kelly even know of this commercial that you [laughs] that you starred in during the '70s? Best commercial jingle ever. Sing it for us, Gilly." Oh, my bologna had a first name.
2:14
Do you know that? Nah. It's M-A-Y-E-R, Kelly. You know anything about that? Um... Oh, no. It's O-S-C-A-R. My bologna had a second name. Right. It's M-A-Y-E-R. Yeah. No, I don't know the commercial.
2:25
He loves to eat it every day, and if you ask him why, he'll say, "It's Oscar Mayer bologna." I, uh, I enjoyed some Oscar Mayer bologna. Jingles were so much better back then. Oh, much better. What happened to jingles?
2:36
Definitely. For those of us who grew up at a certain time, you can't get those out of your brain. Torch D, the one who put the satin in your panties.
2:42
He says, "It's 2:40 AM last night and I was on the, uh, horn with FanDuel telling them they need to post Brandon Miller finals MVP. Woke up and they have it. 350 to 1. I'm in. Let's go Hornets." How about that?
2:53
Brandon Miller, MVP, 350 to 1.
2:55
Troy- You know what's so beautiful about the Charlotte Hornets, Gil, is that I can't say it's a great bet or a bad bet because all three of those, uh, all three of those guards, forwards, whatever you wanna call them, 'cause you got about three guys that are all about 6'7", uh, with Knipple, Ball, and him, and do some similar things.
3:12
They just, they just work together so perfectly. It's a beautiful thing. Brandon Miller's been great though. It's a beautiful thing. Basketball's a beautiful thing when it all works- Mm-hmm... seamlessly.
3:21
Trojan Ram, "Yo, as a former Orleans employee, I am offended with Mr. Bidilon's statement. So what if the lighting, uh, is dim?"
3:31
[laughs] "So what if the lighting is dim to conceal seedy, obnoxious, abhorrent, disgusting clientele and vomit stains? They have hot dogs and bowling. Can't please everyone." I love the Orleans. [laughs] Oh, man.
3:42
Hey, hey, every one of these places in town has something special about them, and you're right. Hot- you got hot dogs and bowling. You, you go there for conference tournaments. [laughs] It's great.
3:51
It's not like a place we're ever gonna stop going because of that. Oh, it's fantastic. They got these little, uh, burrito bowls. They're so good.
3:58
Trip Tepper, "On the timeline for a return from Achilles surgery, isn't the obvious variable the massive salary increases since 2019? Why rush a comeback when you have 50 million in guaranteed W-2 salary?"
4:11
Uh, I think NBA players were getting plenty of money before that, too, uh. Yeah. Yeah. Uh, Chris Garvin. I- interesting p- to point out though, I guess. I guess.
4:20
Chris Garvin, "Like Sheppard, but Rockets could have had Stephon Castle. Went pick four." Yeah. I was just redrafting that draft over here. Castle's one, right? I think, yeah, Castle, Castle would be one for me.
4:32
How'd I just get rid of that list? Geez. Come on, Kelly. Started looking up Kobe Bryant Germany. Um, the... Apparently he had multiple procedures in Germany, so. We don't know. Uh, don't even know. Yeah.
4:42
Uh, definitely had a knee procedure there. I know that one. Uh, yeah, it would be Stephon Castle for me. And then you know what? You do have an interesting list of bigs that could still develop.
4:52
Uh, y- you know, would you put Zach Edey there? I, I, Zach Edey, far better than what I thought he was gonna be coming out of college, um, especially at the beginning of this year. It was a real shame to see him go down.
5:01
You said Risasche might still go two for you? No, no, no, I said Sar, Sar. Sar. So Sar is like, i- i- he's in that conversation. Yeah. He wouldn't go, but he'd still probably... He would still be top five.
5:10
Clell Ware's in that cla- Donovan Clingan, all those guys I think would be a little bit higher up than where they actually got drafted.
5:15
That's the other thing with the lottery we should point out, right, with all these teams tanking. This is... R- remember, if this was a different year, we wouldn't even be discussing this, right?
5:22
We wouldn't even be doing these bets. Exactly, yes. If this was a Risasche year- Mm-hmm... where the Hawks got supposedly super lucky, right? With the 10th great- Yeah...
5:32
the 10th w- you know, greatest odds to get the number one pick. They end up getting him. Then the Mavs I think had the 11th most. I might have those two backwards where they got Cooper Flagg. But the Risasche.
5:41
So Risasche had a good stretch at the end of last year, and that's about it. That's kind of been his career so far. It's tough. I, i- i- look, he's gonna be sliding.
5:51
I think he's p- pretty much gonna be coming off the bench here for the rest of the, rest of the year. I... He's still young enough, Gil,
5:58
a- and with the s- the just kinda size and probably player profile, I- I'm not completely out on him being something down the line, but it, it, it looks like right now it's gonna take, it's gonna take a while before we're talking about Reese Auscher mattering really in the NBA.
6:14
Colin Murphy: "Are we sure that Charles Lee's odds for Coach of the Year at 15 to 20 to 1 are not way too long?
6:21
Missoula and Bickerstaff having great years, uh, but the Hornets' performance is flat out impressive and Lee deserves some serious credit." Brian Schaefer, 31, you can answer that by the way. Yeah?
6:33
I, of, of course it deserves credit. It, it, it definitely does. I don't... Look, I think the Coach of the Year, y- right now you could make a lotta, a lotta great cases. Um- Are the, are the odds too long,
6:44
15 to 1, 20 to 1? Yeah, yes. I, I would- Okay... I would agree with that part, that the odds are too long, but I also think Jordan Knox l- odds have gotten too long.
6:51
For, for we're talking about teams that the expectations were real low and, and exceeding, then those ones belong, those guys belong in the conversation.
6:59
Brought it up y- the other day, though, when we were talking about this.
7:02
Look man, this is, with this award especially, this is kinda time of the year where I tr- I just try to, I'm tar- starting to pay more attention to what the, some of the national NBA media guys are talking about, and it has been two names and that is it.
7:15
Bickerstaff and Missoula, Bickerstaff and Missoula.
7:18
And it's, you know, as much as we wanna make the cases for what, "Hey, this was a win total," and how much they exceeded it, the end it's the, it's the national media that's m- that's voting on these things. Yep.
7:27
Good call. And Brian Schaefer says, "How cool would a college basketball tournament be at The Sphere?" Anything is cool at The Sphere. Oh my gosh. Anything is cool at The Sphere. I hadn't even really thought about that.
7:36
We, we, we got the boxing match coming there. Yeah. Did you go to see... Oh yeah, that's right. You go to see Backstreet there? Was that you? The, uh, did not s- did, did not see Backstreet. Oh, I'm sorry.
7:46
I've seen ma- I'm t- I'm trying to think if I, if I can say I've seen every other show. Mm. I've seen three shows there. Okay. Wow. Three, four? Three? Three. Saw the Eagles.
7:57
Y- you two, the, you two, the Eagles, and Zach, Zach Brown Band? Oh, you did. Zach Brown Band, yeah. Look at you. All right. I was gonna say Zach Bryan. Hey, uh, baseball the other day we did- Luke Bryan...
8:07
we did this whole [laughs] Yeah, I, I, I keep like- You, you work it out on your own, maybe?... my country music stuff [laughs]. Just talking, just in the background. Luke Bryan, my man.
8:15
Uh, yes, so was it yesterday or the day before? Okay, I think it was the day before.
8:18
We did the, uh, 100, we did the 100 wins thing in baseball, one-and-a-half teams over under, 100 losses, one-and-a-half teams over under, and I basically came to the conclusion, we went through the history of teams that have lost 100 or won 100 plus since 2013, and my recommendation was forget those, go to the most wins market and just bet a long shot there.
8:41
If you d- if you don't believe it's the Dodgers, that's the way to play that.
8:45
Today we just sort of expanded it, team to record 80 plus regular season wins, team to record 90 plus regular season [laughs] wins, and then team to record 105 plus.
8:54
Real quick on the 80 plus and the 90 plus, 'cause obviously this- Oh, by the way- Yeah... there's way more options of that listed over at DraftKings.
9:01
Danny and I just kinda cherry-picked where we thought like, [laughs] far enough out of way from each other. Like, basically every five wins y- you could, you can go and check these out. Of the, the...
9:10
I'll just do 80 and 90 real quick, 'cause I don't have much to say, but the 80 plus, if you were to do this just based on what their season win total is and these numbers, the 80 plus, the
9:23
value would be on the Kansas City Royals, I think, at minus 160. Not only... That's not my opinion I'm injecting, that's sort of... The, the Royals are lined at 82 and a half. I think that's...
9:37
'Cause the rest of them kind of track linearly- Mm-hmm... if you will. That's a word. So I think the Royals minus 160 is incrementally the best value by number. Um, as far as the team to record 90 plus,
9:52
the best value sort of incrementally would be the Blue Jays at 88 and a half at plus 105. What was the, uh, what was the last time we had seen that Pirates win total? 78 and a half? Oh, 78 and a half? Yeah.
10:04
I guess that's one to just kinda keep your eye on. If that thing keeps c- getting, getting higher... So interesting with that.
10:10
So Joe Peta has regrets that he didn't bet it at 74, 'cause he, he leaned over, he just didn't think the market would move that quick. Fezzik's been betting it like it's going out of style. Over. Over, over, over. Yeah.
10:20
And Borchard finally said, "Enough is enough. I have it at 74.1, I'm going under." A- and then, and then Joe Sheehan yesterday. It, it- He said it's too much... just, it had gotten too much. Yeah, too much.
10:30
All right, about 105 plus regular season wins, though. Do we have the grav- So this is, the number of teams, I went back to 2000, since the turn of the century.
10:40
Guess how many teams, 30 teams in Major League base- well, we just showed it, so you can guess. Seven teams since the year 2000, 26 seasons, 30 teams. What's the math on that? Boop-boop-boop-boop-boop. Uh,
10:53
780 baseball seasons. 780 baseball seasons. I think it was like- Only seven teams have won 105 plus. I think I would've guessed 10 if I didn't see it. Really? Okay. Yeah. Well, you would've been close. Only seven.
11:04
So they are these markets up. They say MLB 105 plus wins, and what, what is the price there? What are the prices on those? We go to the other ones. By the way, the Dodgers are the last team in 2022.
11:14
By the way, of those seven teams, guess how many won the World Series? One of them. [blows air] The 2018 Red Sox with 108 wins. So you, you can get plus 160 on, on pretty much history. Yeah, cool. Well, here's the thing.
11:26
Yeah, I, I wouldn't... I mean- Or none of these prices are good, is your point. Yeah... none of these prices are good. None of them. None of them are good. But certainly don't play the Dodgers at plus 160.
11:36
But none of them are actually good. 105 just does not happen that often. Seven times since the turn of the century. The Seattle Mariners, the record holders, 2001 at 116, they lost in the ALCS.
11:52
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11:58
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12:06
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12:22
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12:34
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12:39
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12:53
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13:03
Sign up today, vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. We got tweet speed in the book. Uh, let's see here.
13:12
Edward Perez, "Gil, I'm currently en route to Indian Wells, also got a tee time at the Mountain Course at PGA West this afternoon. It's gonna be a great weekend." Nice. Is there anything greater- I'm, uh-...
13:21
than going to Indian Wells? Seriously. I'm going golfing tomorrow. Are you really? Oh, Matt Brown, the, the Matt Brown day. The Matt Brown Invitational. Yes. Yes, yes, that got, uh, pushed back a week, yeah.
13:30
That's right. But, uh, the great Isaiah Wrinkle, who just walked out, will be, uh, golfing. He's playing? It'll be myself, Danny Higgins- Oh, man...
13:36
Matt Brown, and Isaiah Wrinkle, and I'm gonna need some Kelly golfing props out there, 'cause I haven't picked up the sticks in about two years now. Who's the betting favorite in that foursome? It's gotta be Matt.
13:46
Matt- Matt Brown? M- Matt's been, like, five hours a day in the lab. Like, he's, you know, just, like, like, he's got those plugs all over him, like, practicing his swing with seven data scientists breaking it down.
13:55
That's right. That's all he does all day. I'm convinced of it. Um- And if you, and if you challenge him- So I'm gonna get some props tweeted in...
13:59
if you challenge him he'll be like, "I haven't bl- I w- I haven't played golf in three years. I'll bully you right now."
14:03
[laughs] Well, he's one of those guys, like, you never, I don't think he'd ever really played before, like, two years ago. Yeah, he decided he wanted to be great at it. Yeah. Well, guess what?
14:11
He's a former collegiate athlete. Yes. Like, these guys are pretty good at picking up sports. So yeah- Yeah... I think he got hooked on it, and he's been going hardcore, which is great.
14:18
But, uh, uh, I'm, I'm just gonna try to outplay Isaiah. That's my, that's my sole goal. I don't really think it's gonna happen though, 'cause Isaiah plays. I remember Matt Brown played, uh, he pitched in college. Yep.
14:29
And I think, what was he saying? Ricky Weeks once hit a l- a lath [laughs] lashed a double off him. Former major leaguer Ricky Weeks, if I remember that correctly.
14:36
Yeah, I think that was the, the story was, yeah, something like that. Something. It, it was like, "That was what I do. That was what I do." It was the, "I didn't fully belong in that next level." Yeah, yeah. The, uh,
14:47
I will, I will keep track. If anybody wants to tweet in some projected scores, though, I will k- I will keep true score. There's not gonna be any... Danny's already laughing.
14:56
There's not gonna be any drunken pickups on hole 14 of like, "Nah, I'm way over." I'm playing every shot as it lies. You will self-penalize if it's- I will self-penalize. Okay.
15:05
Yes, I'm a gentleman out on the golf course. Honor system. Honor system, yes. Okay. So this might be a massive number. Might be, like, 142 I'm putting up tomorrow.
15:14
Jeff Nelson, "Top commercial of all time, Miller Lite golf commercial with pro athletes and coaches. This open ought to be closed." All the Miller Lites back in the day were great, those commercials.
15:22
That whole campaign in the '70s, early '80s. LosVegas514, "Yo, can you identify these jingles? The best part of waking up," yeah, that's Folgers- Folgers... in your cup. Come on, man.
15:32
Pop, uh, plop, plop, fizz, fizz, Alka-Seltzer. Come on, two classics. LosVegas514, you will not stump me on those. Uh, can we show that list one more time, Dan? I'm sorry about this. The, the, the seven teams.
15:43
I'm just curious again. The seven teams that have won 105 plus games since the year 2000. Thank you, sir. Um,
15:50
again, the only team of these, Kelly, that won the World Series, the 2018 Red Sox, with 108 regular season wins. They're the only team of this bunch.
15:59
Uh, remember the Giants-Dodgers year there in 2021, remember they met in the divisional round, a best of five divisional round, those two teams, and the Giants lose it in game five when the umps gave Max Scherzer a strike call on a Wilmer Flores check swing.
16:14
Don't get me started. I guess I already started. Uh, the Mariners in 2001, w- 116. That is still the record. I had forgotten the Dodgers won 111 in 2022. That was the third most ever.
16:26
The second most, the 1998, we didn't go far, that far back, but the 1998 Yankees, who won 114, and subsequently, uh, swept the Padres in the World Series that year.
16:35
You know what was un- under the radar my favorite line from yesterday's show? Hmm. Was, I think it was yesterday or the day before, when, uh, Giants were playing Team USA. Oh, yeah. [laughs] And you said the score.
16:45
And Gil Alexander goes, "Feel bad for Giants fans out there." [laughs] And I'm like, immediately like, like- Yeah?... G- like, "Giants fans really, uh, rooting against Team USA?" Yeah. Uh, we gotta love fandom, man.
16:56
It's great. I would've been rooting for the Giants. You would've been rooting for the Giants. That's awesome. Yeah, 'cause it was a meaningless game? Sure. [laughs] I would've rooted for the Giants.
17:02
Like, "Damn it, we lost to Team USA." S- s- what was it, 15 to one? At least that's when I last checked, it was 15 to one. You, you want a update from the Arnold Palmer Invitational? Please, yes.
17:11
Johnny Vegas, five under through 15, but he is not alone at the- No, he's not... top of the leaderboard. Tell them. He's one. Daniel Berger is right there as well, five under par through 11. Berger with a hot start.
17:26
He's got several more holes to play. So, uh, I guess he's, he, probably your favorite. I don't have odds in front of me. Probably your favorite for, uh, first round leader right now.
17:33
Ryan Fox, who continues to play well this season. I'm, I, I, I thought long and hard about betting him this week, Gil, and I said, "Nope, this tournament's too big for Ryan Fox. I want nothing to do with him."
17:43
He is three under par. In solo third you've got Billy Horschel, Min Woo Lee, Cameron Young, and uh-oh, that guy who can't play on Thursday, Scottie Scheffler, two under par. Scottie two under through four. Lurking.
17:58
He's a lurk is what he is right now. All right, Scottie Scheffler. Plus 168, I believe Danny just told me, for first round leader for Berger. See you back there. Uh, Bobby Knuckles has chimed in.
18:08
Over under four and a half holes before Kelly throws/smashes a club. Oh, I, they- First prop is in there... they are, my clubs are basically completely useless at this point, Robbie, so yeah, that's...
18:20
They, they might, you might wanna set an over under on how many clubs. How about this? Happy Gilmore with the putter throw. Speaking of clubs, let's go country clubbing. Let's do it Wow.
18:35
I just wanna be in Matt's country club drink- drinking those fine drinks with Danny overexaggerating. He's overselling it after I called him out the one day. [laughs] Ah, yes.
18:46
Matt Brown's Country Club better be that- A great crew, by the way... better be that nice, I expect. Larry, Larry running the show over there, Darnell, Danny, Chris Foster, Deep Thoughts with Chris Foster.
18:57
Chris Foster trying to get me Teddy Riley on the podcast, let's go. Yeah, I'm working on finalizing nicknames. I'm struggling with Darnell, 'cause there's a one he, one I came up with he did not like.
19:06
But otherwise, we got the Lair Bear and we got Bananas Foster, which I'm real pr- proud of those nicknames. Bobby Knuckles, DJ Machi. Everybody's got a nickname. Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. DJ Machi, she doesn't get enough credit.
19:16
I don't know about Higgins. Higgins? Danny. He's, he's definitely... What, what, what would all the football bros call you back in the day? You definitely had a football bro nickname. Higgs. Hi- Higgo.
19:26
Trip Tepper, "My, my respectful guess for Kelly's 18-hole score is 129," he says. No, that's respectful. That is respect. I'm gonna go over that.
19:34
Um, I didn't, uh, I didn't, uh, prepare for these, but we have some who will go further in the, uh, in the Indian Wells tennis tournament that I wanna get to here. Yeah. Can we do the ladies first?
19:44
'Cause I can do those a lot quicker. I just, I just put them all on one graphic 'cause there wasn't that many available. Okay. Well, I'll do the la- the, Elena...
19:50
On the ladies' side I will say Elena Rybakina at plus 150 would be my play. The middle one right there. Sabalenka minus 200 versus Elena Rybakina.
19:59
If you go in their quarters, uh, I mentioned this on the podcast, on the Beating Book podcast, I feel like Sabalenka,
20:07
and, and with respect to what Zach was saying, that it's playing a little faster here in the early going, so maybe that helps Sabalenka a little. But it doesn't diminish Rybakina.
20:13
Rybakina is just in a quarter where she will... She's on a collision course with Jessi Pegula in Q3, Rybakina. I think Sabalenka could get tripped up by any number of players.
20:25
In fact, I am banking on her getting tripped up. So- Okay... and by the way, by the way, Sabalenka just got engaged. She just got a puppy. She's a little distracted. A puppy and engaged? Not necessarily in that order.
20:36
Wow. So Rybakina plus 150 would be my play there. Uh, Zheng Qinwen is correctly priced against Emma Raducanu, minus 150 versus, uh, Raducanu. Uh, Zheng is just a, a better player in all regards, regardless of draw.
20:49
That's how I would go there. I think that's properly priced. And I think Benčić is a better player than Paolini, but I think Paolini is in the easier quarter, Q2. Hmm. Benčić is, is in the Iga quarter with Svitolina,
21:06
uh, I believe. Let me make sure I'm saying that. I- Maybe I'm right on the Benčić one. I'm wrong on the Benčić. Let me just make sure that I'm correct on that.
21:12
Overall, Bill, have we, have we cooled on Benčić overall a little bit? Oh, yeah, pardon me. Benčić, Benčić is in the Pegula, Rybakina Q3. Jasmine Paolini, though, is in the Coco Goff. I... That's a tough one.
21:23
I don't know that I would play that one. But for me, Rybakina plus 150 versus Sabalenka, and Zheng Qinwen minus 150 versus Raducanu. Those would be plays on the ladies' side.
21:33
There's also one that I did not list on here that, that was available, but it was, uh, Alcaraz and Sinner. Oh. It was like- No. Yeah, what are we doing? Th- th... I didn't have to tell you the odds- Oh, yeah...
21:43
and you're already, you already had the same reaction. Yeah. It was like, and it was something absurd, too. It was like Alcaraz, like, minus 140 and S- but what are we doing?
21:52
'Cause if you, if, if you, like everybody else, think they're gonna meet in the final, you j- just bet one of them to win outright. Yep. Uh, the two men's, uh, sorry, we did this in reverse. So the two men's on top.
22:02
Let's go second versus, Shelton versus Fritz. If this is Zach or Drew, they love Fritz in this tournament. Love. He's a Ca- a Cali guy. He has won this tournament before. He's been a little banged up.
22:14
They have him both to win it outright, the whole thing. So they would go Fritz on this. I'm not so sure that I would. I got a court question for you. I think I'd actually go Shel- but I, I would stay away.
22:24
My advice would be to stay away from that one as well. So is this a, because it's a slower hard court and better for a player like Iga, does that mean it's worse for a player like Shelton with a big serve?
22:36
Big serves get mitigated on slower hards. Okay. But again, Zach pointing out, it's playing a little faster in the early going here, so we'll see. It's a weird tournament 'cause it's two tournaments in one.
22:46
Daytime is one tournament, nighttime is another, also, in terms of weather, in terms of temperature. It, it's, it's just bizarro tournament, I would say. No, that makes, I mean, that makes sense, right?
22:55
That you could get in the desert heat and co- heat and cold, that happens. Yeah. And Musetti, uh, Di Menor I would actually go Musetti there.
23:02
So Musetti, Rybakina, Zheng Qinwen would be my three plays as we go country clubbing. And when do we get to the, the true hard, the hard true? True hard is next week, Miami, or no, week after next in Miami.
23:12
Ah, quarry research. Oh, hard true? Yeah. Oh, no, that's later. Later, okay. Dr. Bob, coming up. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:26
You see, what I thought you asked me was when's the next true hard court tournament. Oh. Not when the next hard true court is. I played on hard true in Florida, by the way, on vacation. It's spectacular.
23:38
I'm slacking on a lot of things, man. Yeah. At falconry I haven't advanced my skills with at all. What's going on with you?
23:44
I haven't actually bought stock in the, the hard true q- quarry that I researched so, so hard a couple years ago. [laughs] Did I? Yeah. I think I told you about this, right? A hard true quarry in Virginia. Yeah. Yeah.
23:54
Oh, I was beyond fascinated. And then we got in an argument, is it in Virginia, is it in North Carolina for the hard true. Oh, we're gonna have that argument again.
24:00
When, when Willy Colon says, "Google how to acquire a quarry located deep in the football mountains of North Carolina." Exactly. [laughs] That's what we're, that's what we're trying to do. He's on it.
24:09
I thought it was in Sh- I thought it was outside of Charlottesville, Virginia. Maybe I'm wrong. Yayo on Twitter, "Just moved to the greater Palm Springs area.
24:15
Looking forward to hitting Indian Wells this week for the first time. I know this isn't the Palm Springs lifestyle pod, but any recommendations on good steakhouses/restaurants?" I'm not your guy, 'cause I go in and out.
24:24
All we do is watch tennis. It's, it's frenetic. And then I bother the players in the hotel as well. [laughs] How you feeling, Yulia? Feeling good out there today?
24:34
Yeah, I was kinda gonna say those are most of the stories I hear from Bill Look, looking for, looking for tennis, uh, insight He's the guy just pretending to read the newspaper in the, uh, hotel lobby Hey, Ian Shabor, are you checking your texts?
24:43
Let's talk about your game. Eric Pock, uh, I'd like to teach the world to sing is for kid of the '80s, but this one got me. Oh, that's Coca-Cola, of course. Beautiful ad campaign in the, in the, uh, '70s and '80s.
24:56
Jason McKinney, I'm stuck on Band-Aid, please don't squeeze the Charmin, and the Uncola. Kelly, if you play Bogey Max, I'd say 19 over. By the way, I'm stuck on Band-Aid.
25:05
Do you know who, uh, wrote I'm stu- the Band-Aid jingle? I'm stuck on Band-Aid- Hmm... but Band-Aids stick on you. Um, but Band-Aids stick on me. Barry Manilow. Really? Yeah, the great Barry Manilow.
25:14
He does a part of his act, he, he lets everybody know how many jingles. Oh, Jamie Samuel. Jingles, Barry Manilow. I'm stuck on Band-Aid, uh, Band-Aid's stuck on me. I'm a Pepper, you're a Pepper. Oh yeah, he did the Dr.
25:24
Pepper one too. And like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. You deserve a break today at McDonald's. All of that. He goes, Indian Wells, good luck. Yes, Indian Wells. All of that, Barry Manilow. There you go.
25:34
Uh, and then Brian- All of those were Barry Manilow? I think so. Wow. Brian M., I believe what Kelly was looking for is when is the Emma Navarro GoFundMe open? [laughs] Oh, man. That's right. Okay.
25:47
Ladies and gentlemen, we do this every year at this time of year when the small conference tournaments begin because historically, and I'll ask him why he thinks this is, but historically, this man has crushed conference tournaments in a way that he, uh, even exceeds his normal crushing of college basketball.
26:03
It is the great Dr. Bob Stoll, @drbobsports on Twitter.
26:07
At DR, or excuse me, I should say drbobsports.com, where he has lots of full analysis during football season, or free analysis I should say, in addition to, uh, the paywall stuff. Dr.
26:17
Bob joins us now from outside of Denver, Colorado, courtesy of aggressive guest line. How you doing, Bob? Doing good. I'm doing good. Um, life is, uh, life is, life is exciting this time of year. I love March.
26:30
I love March. I know you love March. First of all, how's your, how's your college basketball season going? Good. You know, it started out hot, then had a big lull in the middle of the season.
26:39
We're up, like, only, you know, seven units, like, as of, like, two months ago, and then suddenly hit a ridiculous hot streak the last seven weeks or so. So now we're 788, 671 and 16. 117 games over 500.
26:54
So, um, been, been, it's now better than average season, so it's been, been solid. How, uh, that's, all those picks are this year, the, that many picks? Yeah. We do, like- The 1,500. Yeah...
27:04
1,600 last year, and been consistently good, yeah. Wow. Yeah, you wake up on a Saturday- Kinda good, actually... Saturday morning, Bob's got like a million picks in the span of 45 minutes. It's like, okay.
27:15
[laughs] Okay, enough already. That kind of thing. Walk away. [laughs] Enough, Bob. Stop it. It's, it's a lot. Yeah, it's a lot. But, uh, we, we haven't been down the entire season.
27:23
We started off first night of the season
27:26
red hot, and then I said, you know, like I said, hit a little bit of a lull, but the last seven weeks have been seven straight winning weeks, and now we're plus 50 units for the year with all plays are basically one unit and a half unit, and we're up 50 units, so it's been, been solid.
27:39
That's the thing. The man doesn't do three stars ever anymore. Two stars, not, I mean, he's, he's- Nah... he's, he's, the man's got integrity. Yeah. I like it.
27:47
Uh, before you launch into your, your, your spiel here, Bob, can I just ask you why you think, and maybe the answer is because of what you're about to talk to us about, why you think conference tournaments have been so good for you through the years, even beyond what you just mentioned?
28:00
Well, this time of year in general's better. I mean, this is, this year's not, you know, pretty typical where the end of the season, uh, tends to be better than, than, than earlier in the season.
28:10
Um, the conference tournament's not only the, the model's better with more data, um, but the, the, the trends that are used in the tournament are, are, there, there's some really unique trends in the tournaments, and I'm not gonna get to those really great ones.
28:25
I've, I have trends that are like 424 and 268, you know, [laughs] for like, that's, for, you know, just tons of sample size. They win every year.
28:36
I'm not gonna talk about those necessarily today, but I'll talk about some things that I do look at and some things you, you should keep in mind.
28:42
But the trends in the, the conference tournaments are really, really consistently good. The, the patterns that, that you see in the conference tournaments are good.
28:49
Last year I was actually two games under 500 in the conference tournament plays, but I had a great NCAA tournament, so I made up for it with that.
28:55
But historically, I've been 55% in conference tournaments going back 20 plus years. 55% in college basketball is really tough to do in the long run.
29:04
So it's been, it's, uh, yet, it's better than, you know, a little bit better than, than the regular season. Um, and looking to bounce back this year after sort of a, sort of a, you know,
29:13
500-ish, you know, conference tournament record last year, but, uh, I'm pretty confident going in this year. Okay.
29:19
So what Bob just said again, some, some trends are so, so, so good that he won't share those with us, but generally speaking, he'll share much with us. And Bob, the floor is yours.
29:29
What do, what would you like to tell the people? Yeah. Uh, first of all, the first one, and I talk about this every year, it's, it's really not like an actionable trend. It's more cautionary.
29:37
A lot of people you hear all the time say, "It's tough to beat a team three times in a row." You hear that all the time in football and playoffs and conference tournaments, you know, teams that double revenge.
29:46
Boy, you, it's tough to beat a team three times in a row. That's really not the case. Teams that double revenge in college basketball are 48% against the spread in conference tournaments over thousands of games.
29:57
Um, obviously you don't bet ag- you know, you don't bet that. It's a 52% going the other way.
30:03
Um, if the double revenging team hasn't had at least three days off between games to prepare, then it goes down to 46% for those double revenging teams against the spread.
30:13
Now, like I said, I'm not suggesting you bet against teams that double revenge. I'm giving you this information to keep you from betting on a team because they have double revenge.
30:23
If that's your reason for betting on a team, that is not going to work. Love that. So just keep that in mind. But there are a couple of revenge angles that do work.
30:33
One I like to, you know, that it comes up, you know, a handful of times every year is, is called, what I call immediate revenge, if teams just played In the regular season finale and they're meeting again in the first conference tournament game.
30:44
Immediate revenge on neutral courts is 114-81-5 against the spread. That's 58.5%. That's something pretty easy, um, easy to, to digest. Um, so look for teams that just played.
30:57
If the team, uh, has a conference win percentage of less than 250, so if it's a really bad team, then you can ignore those 'cause those are 12 and 15 against the spread.
31:05
So if the, if the team that has immediate revenge has a conference win percentage of 250 or better, those teams are 102-66-5 against the spread. That's 61%. Um, so those, those tend to be, you know...
31:18
And like I said, that's just something to consider. That's not something I play blindly. It's just one of those things I, I take a look at and maybe worth half a point or something like that.
31:25
The other one I like is single revenge, and single revenge tends to work if the team with single revenge, they played once, they lost to that team, and now they're favored by two points or more.
31:35
So they're a legit favorite to win the conference tournament game. Single revenge favorites of two points or more are 247-174-11, a, a tidy 59%. Those come up pretty often, so keep your eyes out for those.
31:50
Uh, not any today. James Madison was close. They were favored by one and a half, not quite two, so that's sort of borderline. Doesn't really qualify.
31:59
Um, another one I like is in general, teams coming off a loss tend to have a little bit more motivation as, when they're facing a team that's coming off a win in the regular season finale.
32:09
The teams coming off a loss against a team coming off a win, simple, 52.5% against the spread on nearly 2,000 occurrences going back to 1991.
32:20
So it, that's, like I said, you don't bet that blindly, but it's worth 0.7 points.
32:24
So just if you're doing power ratings or something and you have a team coming off a loss, the other team's coming off a win, that's 0.7 points of value just for that.
32:32
There is sort of a subset of that that, that is better.
32:35
Teams coming off a loss of seven points or more, so more than two possessions, facing a team coming off a win of seven points or more in their, in the most recent game, those are 59% on nearly 800 occurrences going back to 1991 against the spread.
32:50
There are three of those today. Drake, which I played, they were plus five and a half when I played, and they're probably less than that now. Uh, Evansville is another one, and Colgate are the three, um,
33:03
that are, that are coming off a loss of seven points or more against a team coming off a win of seven points or more. Drake, Evansville, and Colgate apply to that today, and 59% over nearly 800 games going back to 1991.
33:15
The other thing, especially this week, I look at one-bid conferences.
33:18
Dominant teams in the minor conferences tend to play their starters more in the conference tournament games, uh, versus a lesser team than they normally would against such teams in the regular season.
33:30
Like teams like High Point or Navy who have dominated their conferences but still need to win their conference tournament to get into the NCAA tournament.
33:38
Those teams don't wanna take any chances, and they tend to be more focused against lesser teams than they might be in a regular season game.
33:46
Uh, I don't blindly bet on those types of teams, but if you're laying 12 or less with a team that won 90% or more of their conference tournament games, those are 61% over the years.
33:56
Not- nothing applies today 'cause Navy's favored by more than 12. Bob, love you for that. Thank you so much. All right, buddy. Dr. Bob Stole, everybody. Predictive sports modeling pioneer.
34:10
@DRBobSports on Twitter, drbobsports.com. We'll come back where we cap the bets next on the Numbers Game. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
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35:18
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Gotta love Dr. Bob here on the Numbers Game with his, uh, yearly conference tournament thoughts.
35:35
Yeah, man, that was good stuff. Uh, making sure that those three plays are still, uh, still qualify that he came up with earlier. Yeah. Uh, we have a trade in the National Football League.
35:45
Ian Rapoport from The Rap Sheet. Uh, the Bears are trading veteran wide receiver DJ Moore to the Buffalo Bills. That gets Josh Allen another weapon. Mid-round pick compensation going back. So DJ Moore, who was, uh,
36:03
sort of the, the odd man out in the Chicago Bears wide receiver rotation here in the off-season, going to the Bills who always need wide outs and had just, uh...
36:13
That is a, that, that's a, that's a solid pickup for the Bills right there if DJ Moore can, uh, capture his best. I guess, you know. You know me. I guess I'll speak for Bear, uh, Bills fans out there.
36:24
[laughs] You are a de facto Bills fan. 'Cause, 'cause I'm kind of a Bills fan at this point. Kind of a Bills fan. This can't be it, right? Like, this is, this is fine. This is not going to satisfy...
36:35
DJ Moore doesn't satisfy the outcry for wide receiver help for, for Josh Allen As a Skins fan, I'm still traumatized by DJ Moore destroying them on Thursday Night Football- Mm...
36:45
a couple years ago, so maybe you're right. I mean, like, i- if, if, if we're talking about, hey, they go out and they draft someone high to, you know, as well, or pick up another free agent, then fine.
36:54
Th- th- then we're talking about something here, but this can't be it. Like, this isn't the grand prize that every, every Bills fan's gonna be like, "Well, there it is. Championship."
37:03
Oh, I don't think anybody's saying that. Eh, well, you, Terry, Mr. Pegula, you got some things to do to satisfy the fans this off-season. You need to do more than that.
37:11
[laughs] Maybe, maybe cut back on Jesse's allowance a little bit. You know? I think Bills fans are probably happy with that though, as a start. It's, as a start. I'm okay with it as, i- if it's a start. Okay.
37:22
Well, yeah, tweets. Speed of the book. Always appreciate it. This is from, let's see, where do we start here? That DJ Moore, one of those just, like, t- like, a lot of years on the Panthers. Ooh.
37:33
Uh, AyaOyaS69 points out that, "Not sure if Terrell Suggs is the outlier, but he came back to play after tearing his Achilles in five months and six days." Is that right? Is that what D- what, uh, Ter- Terrell Suggs did?
37:42
I do, yes, I believe that is correct. Yeah. Interesting. Again, none of these, none of these injuries are the same on the Achilles.
37:51
No one's age is the same, although if you looked hard enough, some people's ages are gonna be the same, as we said. Brian M, "Google votes," uh, oh, I'm correct, "Virginia source of hard true clay.
38:01
Blue Ridge Mountains of Virginia, right outside of Charlottesville, Virginia." Thank you so much, Google. Hey, I'll double-check my research. Thank you, Google. I'm not even, I'm not even arguing with you, Gil.
38:11
I remember, I remember this being a thing of, like, there were different results, but I can't r- there was a reason why. I'll get to the bottom of it aga- once again.
38:19
The beauty of hard true is that it, it, if it rains, it dries up so quickly. John's Fox Plays. "Sorry, Gil, any talk of commercials begins and ends with Clara Peller.
38:28
The iconic Where's the Beef would be the greatest meme if occurred today with TikTok, but still is the best. Honorable mention, My Buddy, My Buddy and Me." What's that one? My Buddy, My Buddy and Me.
38:37
I don't know that one. Yeah, I don't know. Where's the Beef. Was that Wendy's? Yeah, Clara Peller back in the, uh, '80s, early '80s. Uh, let's see. Oh, no. Go over to...
38:50
Auburnist, "Can you ask Crack Man about what I can do about a stolen ticket at a slot machine? Bad move by me walking away from the machine. It was in Mississippi last week and the casino security was not helpful."
38:59
We will get that answer for you when Crack is here at the top of the hour. Let's recap the bets. Oh, boy. What? What's wrong? That sucks. Yeah, it does suck.
39:06
I hope it wasn't for a lot, 'cause I don't think you're seeing a dime of it. That does qualify as sucking. Now, remember though, it is, y- the, the wording you just used is correct, stolen.
39:16
If that guy goes and gambles with that, we, we've had, we had Bill, I think it was Bill talking about that just, like, a month ago. Yeah. Like, that is illegal for that person to be doing so. Yeah.
39:26
Remember with sports betting tickets, though, it's always worth bringing this up every once in a while. Let's say you make a sports bet hard ticket. Uh, let's say you prematurely rip it up. Mm-hmm.
39:38
I don't know how many people actually rip up their tickets before they throw it away, but let's say you, you discard of it.
39:43
I'm the guy who just keeps jamming them in the same drawer in my desk, like they're gonna turn into winners or something. I don't know. All right, well, let's say you're not Kelly Bidley. You don't hoard them.
39:51
[laughs] And you discard of them in a responsible waste basket. Um, and then come to find out there's this massive comeback or whatever.
40:00
Uh, famously, I once had a ticket at Coors Field on a Gi- on a Giants, uh, c- uh, Rockies under.
40:09
The game soared way over, but then in, like, the bottom of the seventh or the top of the eighth, this is about, like, 10, 11 years ago, a freak windstorm came through Coors, and it didn't get to the requisite number of innings, eight and a half- Ugh...
40:21
the old, the old- Yeah... ridiculous rule that was made years ago in Vegas. So I was entitled to a refund when it was already a losing ticket, and I learned then what is true of anybody in these situations.
40:30
If you think you're out of luck because you got rid of your ticket, it is not true. You go to the window at which you made that bet.
40:40
You tell them approximately when you made that bet, for approximately how much money you... Not approximately, but e- exactly for how much you made it, and they will abso...
40:47
As long as someone else doesn't grab your ticket beforehand out of the wastebasket and cash it before you, you will get your refund even without the ticket. Yeah, that's true. It's good to point out. Yeah.
40:59
I'll tell you, the one I did the other day was a... Y- you're constantly learning about stuff like this, or, or relearning or being surprised. But, uh, I was at the Aria, like, a month ago at this point, okay?
41:09
And same thing, I was playing video poker, cash out, get, get my ticket. Forgot to hit the ATM before I go hop in an Uber, and I'm like, "Ah, it's an MGM property. I can cash this anywhere, no problem." Oh, wow.
41:21
So, like, a week and a half ago, I'm in, what, I think it was Mandalay, and I'm like, "Why is the ATM not taking this and not c..." I go to the, I go to the cage, and I'm like, "Hey, look, this is from Aria.
41:29
Like, you guys can cash this, right?" They're like, "No." Looking at me like I'm crazy. I'm like, "Totally thought this was a thing with, like, MGM and Caesars." You know? I kind of did too. Yeah, I...
41:39
Maybe that's changed. Yeah. I don't know, or I'm just crazy and wrong. Which w- w- was The Cosmo involved in, in either of these? No. No. Oh. Okay. Aria and Mandalay Bay. Oh, Aria and Manda- Yeah.
41:49
Oh, that's sh- I don't... That's strange to me. MGM properties. That's strange to me. Yeah. By the way, JasonH11, "Is this it for the Bills?" He says, "Unfortunately, Kelly, that's it. Good luck, Josh," he says.
41:56
[laughs] Probably, yes. Uh, here, here are the bets today. I have two in tennis. One and two yesterday in tennis. Oh, Adrian Mannarino almost got there against Berrettini. Just couldn't get there in the end.
42:05
I'm on, uh, Valentin Royer versus Benjamin Bonzi today. Me and Zach are oppo on this. I'm on Royer, +105 versus Benjamin Bonzi on the men's side. And on the ladies side, I'm on Anna Bondar, -145 versus Elsa Jakimo.
42:19
We have a Takapalooza NBA brain dead parlay, 4-0 now, 15-0 in terms of each individual leg. Plus 35, uh, plus 3.52 units. Just tick, tick, tick. Just, just accumulating numbers as the days and the weeks go on.
42:35
It's amazing. Tonight, it's the Magic, Heat, and Suns, a three-legger that pays about 60, 63 cents, I believe it was, uh, on the dollar on this.
42:45
Magic, Heat, Suns is the three team Ray Dead, Tankapalooza Yeah NBA parlay And I know Zach brought it up, uh, Zach brought it up too about the Rockets. I would be a little careful with their injury report tonight.
43:01
Like I said, I'm not straying from the script. Yep, you're not. Yep. Not straying. I, I completely agree with Zach. I've been pick- Yep...
43:06
I've been picking on the Warriors too, but they are not a part, part of the script, like you said. Not part of the script.
43:11
Man, you, it, look, you're gonna get, uh, sometimes when you get friskier you're gonna get more money than I will, but sometimes it'll, it'll nip you in the butt. Um, Kelly, what do you got?
43:20
Berger seven under and your outright leader at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Leaflet. Uh, I went just Heat Suns, so I even went, [laughs] went further back, just those two. I'm playing a minus 289 on that.
43:32
Uh, and then I do like the Spurs tonight. Laid three with the Spurs, uh, on open with the Pistons coming to town. Yeah, this is gonna be another great game.
43:40
But I, I've got the Spurs, though, about a point and a half, two points higher rated than the Pistons, so you add in home court. I just thought this was a little light. You're seeing three and a half mainly out there.
43:51
I think you were gonna see about probably four, three and a half, four, this close at. Like the Spurs at this number 10, re- reminder, 10 and 3, uh, their last 13 against the spread.
44:00
Detroit one and four ATS their last five. And since the break, San Antonio Spurs six and one with a 17.8 net rating. They have been damn good. Not listed, uh, by the way, I did play the Nuggets Wolves at five.
44:14
Uh, was a little s- I like the Nuggets. I think it's a great spot, great matchup for the Lakers. Little surprised this is rushing out to five and a half, so I laid five small with the Denver Nuggets.
44:24
And then yeah, Cooper Flagg, Rookie of the Year, just covering my butt a little bit as it does look like he is going to be coming back tonight for the Mavericks. Cooper Flagg.
44:32
Like I said, all it takes is one big outburst and we'll see what happens with that market. Rookie of the Year. Zach Cohen, uh, he's got one brain dead parlay of his own. Magic, Heat, Rockets, Suns.
44:43
So he's throwing in the Rockets against the Dubs. Then he has a, uh, money line parlay that has nothing to do with tanking. That's the Timberwolves and the Nuggets, pays plus 113. Couple NBA props.
44:52
Reed Shepard of the Rockets over three and a half first quarter points at plus 135. Julian Champagnie over 10 and a half points for the San Antonio Spurs. Um, Zach also added three tennis plays.
45:03
Rafa Nadal minus 131 versus Alejandro Tab- uh, Tabilo at Indian Wells today. On the ladies' side, Taylor Townsend, his favorite play of the day, minus 109 versus Marie Bouzkova. We are oppo on the Royer match.
45:16
He's on Bonzi, minus 111 versus, uh, Valentin Royer. I- interesting what he said.
45:21
He wouldn't have made this play 24 hours ago, but based on what we're seeing with the court speed in day one, that's what took him to Bonzi. And then Dr. Bob, uh, Dr.
45:30
Bob said three teams qualified for one of the trends he just talked about, but the only one he played was Drake. Yeah. Just wanna be clear about this. Mm-hmm. So he is on Drake. Drake is the Dr. Bob play of the day.
45:40
Drake plus five and a half points versus Southern Illinois. Bob even said on text, he's like, "I can come back for two minutes if you want me to for two more angles." So I'm sorry we did that. Sorry, Bob. Sorry.
45:49
There are a couple fives out there still. We almost got them all in, but that's his play of the day. Drake plus five and a half versus Southern Illinois. The Salukis, I believe, correct? Southern Illinois? Yes. Yes.
45:59
All right. Yeah, yeah. That's good. I had a good friend that went there. Ladies and gentlemen, on the other side, Bill Krackenbergers Unscripted. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
46:09
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46:17
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46:31
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46:38
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46:47
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46:56
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
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