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Mar 7, 2025
A Numbers Game | March 7, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | March 7, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, eSports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Salla, brought to you by Kelly Binland, everybody. Producer number nine. So much more than a producer.
0:21
It's Gil Alexander. How you doing, man? I'm doing pretty well. It is, uh, it is pretty costly to pay, uh, everybody that we have on Friday. You know, it comes straight out of my pocket, brought to you- Yeah... by me.
0:32
Yeah. Very well. You sponsor the show. Yep. Thanks, appreciate it. Uh, who we got back there? I actually love it. Who we got? Savannah back there, we got Darnell back there. We got Darnell. Brendan. We got Cam.
0:40
Brendan is working remotely today. Okay. He's a little under the weather. Feel better, Brendan. Sean McCollum is always working remotely on this show, even though he might not be. That's right. Right. Mm-hmm. Absolutely.
0:48
Yeah. Brian Ortega will come in in about an hour. And say things in our ear that we don't want said in our ear. [laughs] It's gonna be awesome. Uh, that's our crew, by the way, every day. That's right.
0:56
This doesn't happen without them. Uh- They do a great job... on the show today, it is a Friday. You know what that means. [laughs] Oh, it's good. It's real good. Felika and Fezzik, hour number two, let's start there.
1:07
Felika wants to talk about, uh, he has bets in not one, not two, not three, not four, count them, five sports. Mm-hmm. I would list them, but I'm sure I'll forget one, so let me try.
1:18
Soccer, horse racing, college basketball, tennis, and baseball. Yes. That's it. Did you say soccer? I did. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. You're good then. Uh, so- You got 'em all... five from Felika... way to go.
1:31
And then, uh, Fezzik, to say that he has, uh, 75 topics to talk about might be short-changing him. Yeah, to say, uh, he sent 49 of them in at 3:00 this morning. He did. Yeah. Yeah. So, like, yes. Well, sure.
1:42
Hope- We'll try to get to all of them. Hope you rested up, Steve. [laughs] Yeah, if C- Crack is unscripted, Fezzik is, uh, somewhat scripted, at least with an outline. Oh, I love it. Yeah.
1:50
As a producer, you know, all the guests did incredible homework today, Gil. They all got their bets to me, topics to me. It's, it makes it very, very easy.
1:57
Yeah, the bane of Kelly's existence is when I'm like, "I don't know. We'll just figure it out." [laughs] "We'll get there. We'll see what happens." The famous Isaiah thing where I'm like, "Uh, Roxy's here.
2:04
We're just gonna stop everything and put Roxy on air." He's like, "No, we can't." I was like, "Yes, we can." Uh, this hour- Yeah... Jordan Sherwood on UFC 313. Looking forward to that. It is 3:13, right? Mm-hmm.
2:14
I didn't get that wrong. Uh, Jason Weingarten as well on the show. Um, and are we gonna do some NFL next team odds? Let's do that as well, um, for a couple players in the National Football League.
2:25
Not among the couple players, Trey Hendrickson, by the way, who the Bengals have said, "Hey, go ahead and, uh, find a team." Yep, saw a report your Commanders are interested. [laughs] As they should be.
2:36
As they should be. It's called cap space, ladies and gentlemen. Use it. I mean, hi- him and Miles Garrett, right?
2:40
Like, this is, like, they both might not work out, but your Commanders are perfectly positioned to, to make a run after each.
2:47
Like I said, with all of these, as Deebo, whether it's Trey Hendrickson or whomever, I'm braced for the news that comes right after that, where the Philadelphia Eagles magically acquire Miles Garrett.
2:56
I'm worried, I'm worried about that. Yeah. [laughs] Um, okay, tennis yesterday. A second consecutive one and two day to start Indian Wells. That is not ideal. One and two is not ideal. It's also not the end of the world.
3:07
Did Maya joint get through at least? No, she's the big- No. She was the big loser.
3:11
She was, she was the one, I mean, she got crushed in the first set, and then she made something of it in the second set, but she didn't get there.
3:16
Though the one where it was, where it ch- turned on was the very first one, which is, we should've been two and one. The one that me and Zach were oppo on. So I'm gonna say I'm up, right? But my guy- [laughs]...
3:27
Bonzi's up, uh, 4-3. He's up 4-3, 40-love in the third set, and he gaks the game. Then at 5-5 he has, how many, how many sports did Felika have bets in? Five. He had, he had five break point opportunities. Five.
3:43
Squandered them all. And, and, uh, good for Zach. Jensen Brooksby gets home. So that was the difference between a winning game. Tennis happened. Yeah, yeah.
3:50
It's the difference between a, a winning day and a losing day, right there. Jensen Brooksby needs every break in life he can get. Jensen, Jensen Brooksby's like, "I heard what you said about me on the show today."
3:58
[laughs] Uh, the winner was, uh, Kimberly Birrell. She got there. Today it's four plays. Four plays at Indian Wells. Um, it's been windy there by the way. Tomorrow's supposed to be glorious. It's been windy here. Yeah.
4:08
[laughs] Yes, it has. Is there anything worse? Is there a worse el- is there a worse weather element? I mean, a common one, obviously. Don't make up something rare. But is there a worse common weather element than wind?
4:18
Oh, my God. Uh, probably not. It's also just bizarre out here, especially when you move from South Florida, where it's like there's no rain or anything with it, it's just wind. I'm just- Coming at you...
4:27
telling you where, if you stay at the Aria, right, when it's windy, and you try to walk in the U between The Waldorf, The Wal- the Aria, and Veer, if you weigh less than 130 pounds, you will be blown into the street.
4:39
That, the wind tunnel that is created there. Yo, yeah, yeah. Here are the- It's crazy... here are the four tennis plays today. One on the ladies' side, three on the men's.
4:46
On the ladies' side, DC-born Hayley Baptiste is the play against Danielle freaking Collins. Plus 136 on Baptiste. She's about plus 131 now, so not, not, not quite as good, but, but playable.
4:59
Um, Collins hasn't played since the Australian Open. She's kind of been mailing it in. She was kind of getting a paycheck there. She was supposed to be retired by now, right? Yeah.
5:08
But she decided- Yeah, yeah, what happened with that? Yeah, she's like, "I like this too much. I'm gonna collect money." [laughs] Um- Good call. [laughs] Yeah. So this is kind of her money collecting tour.
5:16
Anyway, she's never done really well here at this tournament, and, uh, Baptiste has the numbers to beat her.
5:21
Collins could, you know, look, Collins show up and be the, the best of Danielle freaking Collins, of course, but, uh, I like the play at plus 136. Baptiste should not be that big of a dog.
5:30
On the men's side, three plays, one of which is a big dog. Colton Smith out of the University of Arizona. Colton Smith, plus 207 against Alex Michelsen.
5:39
Alex Michelsen prefers a faster hard court, and Colton Smith has been doing really well, uh, on the Challenger tour.
5:45
And what I'm talking about, this is one of these guys where, uh, he has had some modest success here, just he obviously had an upset in the first round. But, um, he's got the numbers that could forge this upset.
5:57
Plus 207 versus Alex Michelsen. Again, that's in the plus 190s right now, still very playable. Lorenzo Musetti Uh, the Italian, plus 114 versus, uh, Roman Safiullin.
6:08
Uh, Musetti is right around, I mean, he was, again, you have a little bit of a better price on all, on the first three of these. Um, Musetti is a clay courter. This, remember, is a slow hard court though.
6:20
Um, so this is the conditions that would, uh, author the upset here, and I believe his, his health is better here. Um, conflicting reports on that, but I believe from what I've heard that he's good to go here.
6:30
So Musetti at plus 114. And then the one where my number is worse than what you can get at, at least when I checked it before the show, uh, Zizou Bergs. I got at minus 115.
6:39
He's lower than that at minus, uh, 103 or something like that against, uh, Alexei Popyrin. Popyrin had a stretch where he was a great hard court player. That's last year.
6:50
He's, I think, one in four or one in five, something like that, uh, in the early going this year. Bergs' number is superior. Bergs, pick number four.
6:58
So Bautista on the lady side, Colton Smith, Musetti, and Bergs on the men's side. Zizou Bergs. Zizou. That's a good name. Zizou Bidlin. That's a solid name right there. You should name your kid Zizou when you have one.
7:10
I might just do that. Yeah. When I have one. [laughs] When you figure, when someone teaches you how to do that. When I can keep a plant alive, I'll let you know, Gil.
7:20
There's also some, uh, slam tennis props you wanted to get to, which I'm always down to talk a little, uh, tennis here before we launch into college hoops and stuff. By the way, college hoops, I mean, are you kidding me?
7:29
How great is this time of year? Um, today in college hoops, by the way, just today alone with all these, there's, there's obviously non-conference games as well, non- non-conference, uh, tournament games, I should say.
7:40
Uh, but today, God, you got, uh, double digit worth of, of conference. Well, today's, it's, in this first week it's, you know, some of these tournaments are choppy.
7:48
By the way, uh, Queens, we should mention Will Hill's, uh, Will's Hill sh- Will Hill's long shot to win their conference tournament, uh, came up short yesterday, uh, in the Atlantic Sun.
8:02
It's gonna be North Alabama and Lipscomb on Sunday. He had Queens at, uh, six to one.
8:06
They had a 10-point lead with six minutes left yesterday, and then in overtime had a shot to tie, and the dude went, like, too far under the rim and hit the bottom side of the rim, and they end up losing. Ugh.
8:16
So pe- people, it's always, it's a results-oriented business, but the margins of how you hit these or don't hit these are always, you know, razor thin. So a good run for him, but it didn't work out.
8:25
But today, um, so many intact.
8:28
You had fourth day of seven straight days in the Sun Belt Conference, quarters today in the Big South, semis today in the Ohio Valley, quarters in the Summit today, quarters in the Missouri Valley today, second day of six straight in the West Coast Conference.
8:43
Um, Southern begins today, uh, on and on and on. So can't wait for, uh, all those. Um, the tennis plays, by the way, uh, the tennis slam plays. So these are specials.
8:54
You will find these in multiple-- I think more and more sportsbooks have these up now. Uh, it's not like a stray one, but look, a few- Yeah, that's a good point.
9:00
I just- A few of them have these I didn't shop around big time. They weren't up at DraftKings. Caesars had them. Caesars got them. Yeah. Odds to win a Grand Slam this year.
9:08
We touched a little bit about this yesterday, but specifically about Carlitos and Iga, and my comment was, yeah, Iga should be minus 250. We did an are we sure. Sh- are we sure- Sure... that she should be minus 250?
9:17
And the answer is yes, because she's minus 175 in the French alone, having won four of those. So yes, she should be. Should Carlitos be? Oh, so now this is odds to win a Grand Slam.
9:27
You have Carlos Alcaraz at minus 250 here. I would not play that because Jannik Sinner exists. He is on suspension right now, but he will be back by the time the French Open happens.
9:37
Uh, is there a play on the men's side there? Joker felt too short, right?
9:43
Like, I know it's Djokovic, but wouldn't you rather just, like I'd almost rather just skip him in the French and then bet him at bet him outright prices Wimbledon, US Open.
9:53
If you forced me to play one on the men's side there, it'd probably be Sascha Zverev at three to one, probably. Just because if things break right in a particular tournament,
10:04
and all he had to do was one, win one big match, three to one big, but that's still not a play. Yeah. Still not sexy enough. Yeah. The play is on the lady side. You know where I'm going with this? Hmm. Yes.
10:17
Boop boop beep beep beep. Either- Boop boop... Sabalenka or Rybakina. No, Jessie Pegula, nine to one. Give me that number. Okay. Jessie Pegula, nine to one.
10:26
She, uh, peaked at the, not peaked, I mean, she's still in her, in her prime years. She was the number three player in the world. I think she's currently the number four player in the world.
10:34
Just came off a win in Austin. Remember, she got to the finals in the US Open last year. Uh, have we mentioned at all that she's a billionaire s- uh, for $7.5 billion fortune? Whoa, whoa, whoa, seriously?
10:44
Yeah, I think we haven't mentioned that before. Jessie Pegula nine to one, that, you just play that number. Gotta play it.
10:50
No, she's not the favorite at the French, I get it, but- She won't be the favorite anywhere, right? Here's, she won't be the favorite anywhere, but here's the thing with her. Like, she is mentally steely.
11:00
She won't, like, if she's going to be bounced out of a tournament, it's not because something happened between her ears.
11:06
Which, by the way, I would say Iga has more happening between her ears than Jessie Pegula does even. So I would say Jessie at nine to one is the play. Most likely to win in what order? US Open, Wimbledon, French?
11:16
Correct. Okay. Of the ones coming up this year, yes. Correct you are. Um, okay, we'll come back. We will, uh, talk UFC 313 with Jordan Sherwood. Uh, before that, though, some basketball talk.
11:26
The Warriors continue to win. The Lakers continue to win. Which of those is, uh, the more sustainable? Which is more unsustainable? We'll talk about that.
11:37
Um, probably ask Kelly once again, uh, give him a third shot at this. If it's not the Thunder that wins the west, who will it be? We'll get into all that, NBA and more. Plus UFC, plus Fezzik and Felika.
11:49
It's a numbers game at Vsiz, the sports betting network. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, the place to be. All of this is free.
12:06
Listen to this. Wanna bet smarter?
12:08
Start with smarter insights with, uh, articles like the CAA, that's the Colonial and the Southern Conference Tournament previews, Greg Peterson's best bets in college hoops, Adam Burke's 30 Major League Baseball team previews, and later today you can check out Zach Cohen's best bets in the NBA, Steve Makinen's NBA analytics report, and Adam Burke's college hoops best bets.
12:27
Access to all those articles on VSiN.com for free. Don't cost you nothing, in the words of the great Ashford & Simpson. That's through Selection Sunday, free through Selection Sunday.
12:38
That's the end of next week at VSiN.com/champweek. VSiN.com/champweek. I like free stuff. Yeah, you do, right? I like, I prefer it over paying for stuff.
12:52
[laughs] People do lose their minds when anything is free.
12:57
Oh my gosh, there is, like, eh, you might, you might roll your eyes out there, like, if you see marketing tables set up with free T-shirts or, like, stress balls or something like that. Now, people go- Oh...
13:07
nuts for free stuff. Nuts. And this, this ain't that. This ain't that. This ain't that. This is work. This is not that. This will, uh, this will come back to you. Uh, we get tweets @BeatingTheBook.
13:16
Uh, this is from, uh, Clinton, Tennessee, who says, "All the unscripted shows are very good, but this week's was awesome with the Crack Man yesterday," he says.
13:23
Ice Cold Gambler, "Fez should be paying you for him giving out your tennis plays to his crew, and if Fez is telling his crew your picks as if they're his own, you are doing something right." Thank you, Ice Cold Gambler.
13:33
I, I will take it that way as well. Uh, this is from, doo, ba, doo, ba, doo, sorry, Clinton T- oh, Clinton, Tennessee is back.
13:39
He goes, "Hopefully I can figure out why I'm blocked by Bill Krackenberger though," even though I c- he complimented him a second ago, but he can't s- uh, but when you said that you can't see the forest through the trees, that suited that to a T about the casinos yesterday.
13:50
Prime Time, Cowboys_Cubs1, "Dear Mr. Gill," [laughs] he's saying this, I think he's trying to be someone's mom here. He goes, "Please excuse Stevie's absence."
14:00
Oh, this is, this is interesting that everybody's on the Stevie thing with the tennis picks. "Please excuse Stevie's absence from crediting your tennis picks while passing them on to others. He's a good boy.
14:08
I just don't get his Twitter thingy. Signed, aggregator's mo- aggregator's mother." [laughs] That's absolutely right. Mile High David- That one took some work, Cowboys Prime Time. [laughs] Yeah.
14:18
[laughs] Uh, Mile High David, "Can't believe you didn't say Maya Joint got smoked." [laughs] Yeah. Yeah, you're right. See? You're right. See? All this classic content we're missing out on now, Maya.
14:28
The jokes, the jokes write themselves, don't they? They really do. Yes. Way to blow it, Maya. She did get smoked, by the way, in the first set. DGen, Southern Gen, "Hey, I was, uh, with Zach on Brooksby yesterday."
14:37
He says, "Hate rooting against you, Gill, but as a bit of an outcast myself, I've always been a big fan of Brooksby and hope this win is one of many more to come. #slayingthespectrum, #autismawesomeness."
14:50
You trying to say that about Jensen Brooksby, Gill? I don't know what you're saying. Um, yeah, y'all got lucky. [laughs] There's no other way to say it, but it's tennis. It happens.
14:59
So congratulations to the both of you, uh, on that. Um, JasonH11, "Hey, I, I heard you guys are giving out T-shirts. Can I get one?" He's, he heard the free end, so he's just going.
15:07
By the way, when I was doing music radio, it didn't matter what we give out. It doesn't. Caller, caller 106, I'll give you this Bic pen in front of you. Yeah.
15:15
We would get hundreds of calls, someone trying to be caller 106.
15:18
Uh, the old, the old intern days of doing, like, marketing street teams, and you'd be all mad s- I'd be at, I'd be at spring training setting up some table in 95 degrees South Florida heat, all pissed off that I'm there, and I'm like, "Nobody's gonna take this crap."
15:30
You're like, "Nah, it's free. People, uh, people will flock for it." I don't wanna peel back the curtain of music radio, but when we do caller 106, we don't actually count to 106. Oh, yeah, yeah, that was, yeah.
15:39
We go one, two, three, four, 105, you just missed. That kind of thing. My, my first- Sorry... my first internship in the business was for a pop station. Yeah. And, and I learned that on, like, day four.
15:49
I, when I, when you start, you do it. You're like, "84, 85," and then by, like, day three you're like, "Okay."
15:55
I, I could tell that the, uh, the show was not, they, they were not happy of how many questions I had about it. I was like, "Whoa, whoa, like, we're really not gonna take the 10th caller? Like, there's-" You're that guy.
16:03
Yeah, I'm like, "The phone lines are lit up. There's at least 16 people here." Well, 10 is fine, but 106- Something like that. [laughs]... is different. Um, 106 KBLJams, by the way.
16:12
Okay, let's go to the, you wanna do the football stuff first? Yeah. Let's, uh, find out. Uh, w- you can bet on this stuff.
16:17
Again, I don't know how high the limits are, of course, when we're talking about next team in the National Football League, but nonetheless, it is bettable.
16:26
Um, so there's a couple guys out there that, uh, you can do this on, one of whom, Kelly, would be, and we can start with, uh- Sure, DK. DK? Okay. Yeah, yeah.
16:35
DK Metcalf, who has said to the Seahawks, "Hey, man, get me outta here. I wanna trade." Seahawks remain the short shot. Staying with the Hawks is still two to one.
16:43
Then you got the Chargers at three to one, the Patriots at plus 350, the Raiders at seven to one, the Texans at eight to one, the Steelers at 12 to one, the Broncos at 12 to one.
16:53
Now, it should be noted, what, what do all those teams have in common? They're all AFC teams. So in other words, get 'em out of the conference. Hmm. Yeah, good, good call.
17:01
After that, it's the Giants at 14 to one, uh, the Jags and the Bears also at that number as well.
17:07
One, one thing to point out, too, with these, Gill, 'cause I know this was one of our questions or points when they first started posting markets like this years ago, it was always like, "All right, you gotta put a field or list every team," right?
17:19
Every team is listed now. Every, uh- Yes... every time I've seen DraftKings post the- Yeah... these, every team is listed, so good on them for finally coming around to that.
17:28
Where do you, where do you, how do you feel about DK Metcalf, period, as a s- as a wide receiver? I love him. I, I, I mean, I think he's a top 15 wide receiver in the NFL. Okay, 15 I'll allow. Yeah, sure. I don't know.
17:38
I, I might go into top 10. I think a downfield threat like that, though, with how deadly he is, I, I think it's a game changer for offenses.
17:45
I think it really opens up what you're able to do- Maybe he does need a change-... pushing the ball downfield... maybe he does need a change of scenery. I don't know.
17:51
I just don't, w- whenever I'm thinking about the top-tier wide receivers, I do not think of him, right? But he's great. He's great. Well, he can't do it all, right? Like- He can't do it all...
17:58
like you said yesterday, he's not a, he's not a Justin Jefferson. No. But, like, he's that next tier down. He is- I would agree... that next tier down for me. I would agree.
18:05
Anyway, I have, I have no instinct on this one, however. So this, well, this one, I think it goes back to what we were talking about yesterday in where's the truth in what the What the trade rumors are, right?
18:16
'Cause the other thing we heard then for, uh, quotes out of the Seahawks front office yesterday is that they, they have been talking to teams. So they've been, they've at least been talking.
18:24
But i- if we're supposed to believe the report that they're asking for a first and a third- Yeah, nah. No... uh, like, then plus 200 actually doesn't feel all that bad for him going back to Seattle.
18:36
I mean, the Chargers need, this is such a need for them. The Steelers, this is such a need for them. But yeah, first and third, forget it.
18:43
I mean, I think both of these wide receivers we're gonna talk about, uh, I mean, Metcalf and Davante Adams, Chargers, like you've gotta be in play for both of these, right? Put Da- Yeah, you got to.
18:51
D- well, I mean, look, how do you feel about Davante now? Davante Adams, let's do the same thing. Next team odds. Sorry, I don't have an instinct on DK, I really don't, in terms of a next team.
18:59
Uh, Davante Adams, who if you...
19:01
Did you, did you see the story, you know how I was going on last year about, uh, yeah, or the, the, two years ago, when I was just mad that Matthew Stafford wouldn't throw the ball to Puka Nacua? Yeah.
19:10
And I was like, "Oh yeah, he and Sean McVay and his boyfriend, Cooper Kupp, who he does a podcast with, they all live in the same cul-de-sac, and they're not throwing the ball purposely to Puka Nacua."
19:19
Well, the Jets actually came out, right, that they had been disgruntled, 'cause as soon as Aaron Rodgers got there, they thought he was funneling the ball to Davante Adams. Um, so Davante now, next team.
19:31
Do we have those odds, guys, at all? Mm-hmm. On Davante Adams? Um, I'll let you read them, Kelly, since we're... There we go. Packers, going back to the Packers, plus 190.
19:40
Going back to Cali, except this is to the Packers. Then there's the Chargers, the aforementioned Chargers at plus 450. Niners are six to one, Rams plus 750, Giants plus 850.
19:53
Now remember, we're always thinking about linking this with Aaron Rodgers. So d- where, where are the Vikings on this? 'Cause they have Justin Jefferson.
20:01
But I'm just saying, if Aaron Rodgers ended up on the Vikings, what would be the number on him? You'd, you'd crash that number at that point, wouldn't you? Uh- 'Cause, 'cause these guys are attached by a string.
20:11
I don't, I don't know if I view it fully that way. I do, because it always happens. Or not always, but it seems to ha- Vikings... it seems to have just happened... 75 to one.
20:21
If you're Davante, don't you wanna just, just distance yourself at this point again? Go b- go like you did to when you went to the Raiders from Green Bay. Well, uh, so that's where I'm like, I don't know- Yeah...
20:29
if they're... I, I, I r- and, uh, when I say I don't know, Gil, I have no idea. Maybe Davante Adams really is like, "Aaron, I'm following you wherever," right?
20:37
But I also think he l- if you look at what he did, at least the pa- I mean, last year for both the Raiders and the Jets, he's still got a little something in the tank.
20:45
It's, for Davante Adams, it's a personal versus team assessment, I think. Personally, he's like, "Why wouldn't I go with Aaron Rodgers? He feeds me the rock over and over and over. I can accumulate stats."
20:57
On the other hand, you're not gonna win any Super Bowls with this guy. Yeah. So I don't know. Packers are the short shot, which is an interesting one, 'cause the Packers need...
21:04
I mean, the Packers have, Packers are one of these teams, they have a bunch of wide receivers, none of them spectacular, but g- but all good. Mm-hmm. The Packers themselves right now. Mm-hmm.
21:13
So they could use Davante Adams, obviously a team that's knocking at the door at the top of the NFC. Um, but then the, and there's the Chargers. Niners is interesting. Again, I have no instinct on this.
21:23
And again, be- because the limit is not high enough, I'm not gonna devote a tremendous amount of brain power to this. Yeah, I mean, the other, other ones, like you, you're hearing rumors he wants to go back out west.
21:32
I think that is why you're, uh, a, a part of the reason why you're seeing Chargers, 49ers. Rams, uh, as high up as they are. Um, [laughs] I like the Raiders being listed at 16 to 1. He just, he just left. Yeah.
21:43
Like, is there, is there any way that happens? Just left. I mean, this is what, if I had to bet this one, it would be Chargers. It, it just- What about Andy Reid and the Chiefs sneaking in, which they tend to do?
21:53
A la DeAndre Hopkins. That would be a great move. They're 18 and one. Yeah, that would be awesome if they could pull that off.
21:58
But like, I, so this is where I think if, like you're talking about, get in Davante Adams' mindset, right?
22:02
Okay, if you're talking about going to the Chargers, and you become, may- you're not the number one, whatever, that's fine, but you are the main outside threat on that team with a gr- a good quarterback.
22:14
I'm not gonna go great, because remember, j- people give Justin Herbert way too much credit for what he's done in his career. [laughs] Uh, but a very, very, very, very, very good quarterback, right? Yeah.
22:22
Then you've got Lad McConkie inside. Things are gonna open up for you outside. You know who we need to find? Was it you or Parlay who was my producer?
22:29
We had the guy at the South Point who's, like, friends with Davante Adams, who told us, "Yeah, he's gonna be on the Raiders within a week." No, it was not me. Yeah. Oh, okay, yeah. We, there's a guy.
22:37
There's a guy who knows his world. Well, Parlas, get on that. [laughs] Find that guy, Jeff Parlas. Bring him to us so we can make a bet here. Uh, we'll come back. UFC 313, big night.
22:46
Jordan Sherwood joins us next right here on the Numbers Game at VSiN. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
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23:06
Sign up today at edgeboost.bet with promo code ANG. ANG as in A Numbers Game. Deposit $25, and Edge Boost will match the deposit. That's edgeboost.bet. We get tweets at Beat of the Book, always appreciated.
23:19
Ryan Hyatt, shadow producer for, uh, Primetime Action back in the day, our buddy.
23:24
He says, "You know it's gonna be a great Friday on a Numbers Game with Gil and Kelly when we have a, uh, Sweathogs reference in the first 20 minutes. Well done, ANG Twitter folks." Was there a Sweathogs reference?
23:32
I missed it. Yeah, there was two. A welcome back kind of reference. Uh, Charles in Connecticut, "Hoop Homer. Is it one of these multicolored Bic pens? I'll take it. I use those to help color code my betting research."
23:42
Talking about how, uh, in music radio, no matter what we gave away for free, including a Bic pen, people go crazy. Chris Heath- Oh, those, those pens are legendary. Those pens are awesome.
23:49
I, I loved those for, I loved those for years. Oh, the ones where you can change the color? Yeah, yeah. Change the color. That was high tech when I was a kid. It really was, yeah.
23:56
Chris Heath, "Can't win if you don't call. I've won tickets to Martin via Chewy Gomez [laughs] at 106 KMEL, and Sharks playoff tickets, plus Grateful Dead, Metallica from 95.7 The Game." That's my buddy Chewy.
24:08
Yeah, I love it. Uh, JasonH11 also chimes in, "What free agent receiver would wanna go to the Giants given their quarterback or lack thereof situation?
24:15
Oh, and you'll be second fiddle to second-year neighbors who's on a rookie deal."
24:19
Listen, I say this is the biggest thing about Jayden Daniels with the, with the Skins, excuse me, with the Commanders, is now people wanna come there. It's like it's night and day.
24:27
You couldn't attract anybody before that. Okay, sure. I'll, I'll... Uh, no, you're totally right. I'll answer the Giants side of it, 'cause we've been talking about it all week.
24:35
It's the if you just want money, and you don't really care about any of the rest of it, then the Giants might be interested in you, 'cause again, we're dealing with a GM and a coach that are just looking after themselves and trying to save their jobs.
24:49
The, the Giants saving their jobs thing is, is definitely a thing. Right. That front office. So like, again, does Davante Adams make a splash? Yeah, that name makes a splash.
24:57
Uh, Jay Salter, "DK to the Dolphins in a trade. What are those odds? They're tired of Tyreek." And Jeff Cam, "Gil, loved your comment on the Cul-de-Sac Boys Club. Best two days, Thursday, Friday on Gambling TV.
25:07
Crackman to Fezzik." Thank you, and thank you to Crackman and Fezzik. Uh, let's talk some UFC. 313, Jordan Sherwood joins us now, ladies and gentlemen. Um, we always love hearing from Jordan.
25:17
Woodon1000 on the old Twitter machine. Uh, what is it? WoodonESPN1000? Is that correct? Yes. That's right. That's right. That's right. Left out the ESPN, God forbid. All right. Uh, we're in Vegas this weekend.
25:28
Uh, the main event, Alex Pereira, Magomed Ankalaev, uh, a, a... The classic styles make fights, right? 100%. I mean, Alex Pereira is the most prolific striker we've seen.
25:43
I mean, he's got highlight reel after highlight reel.
25:46
And I'll say this, and it's probably a, a, a factor for, you know, when you're handicapping a fight and considering the public money, like, Alex Pereira is the biggest star in the UFC, period.
25:56
He has reached levels now where, uh, Conor McGregor ask, Anderson Silva, Jon Jones ask for. When, when he fights, people care. So a lot of people will be tuning into this fight.
26:06
They're, they're gonna be thinking about his highlights. And look, he's a fantastic fighter, and what he's accomplished over a short period of time is phenomenal.
26:13
This is his tough- toughest challenge to date in Magomed Ankalaev.
26:17
Many consider him to be the uncrowned light heavyweight champion of the world, a guy that's got outstanding wrestling, yet we've never seen it because he can strike with the best of them.
26:26
Uh, and there's worrisome about Pereira's ability to, uh, handle i- if Magomed Ankalaev comes with a heavy takedown approach, which he likely will because that needs to be tested.
26:39
If this fight is contested on the feet, Gil, like, Alex Pereira should win the fight. He'll, he'll land some leg kicks, and Magomed Ankalaev will, will struggle with that.
26:47
But if it th- this, and it is a mixed martial arts fight, we're gonna see some takedowns. As, as much as it pains me, 'cause I love Pereira, the, the play has to be on Magomed Ankalaev.
26:58
He has more ways to win this fight, uh, and I think that, uh, he's gonna fight intelligently and look for those takedowns, look to exploit, or at least challenge the unproven ground game of Alex Pereira.
27:11
Let me ask you a, uh, sort of just off-the-cuff question here. I- I- If the book is known on Pereira, right, like, okay, the way you should fight him is to try to grapple with him, right?
27:21
Why is it that his opponents never seem to do that? What's the Jedi mind trick there?
27:26
Well, I mean, for, for starters, the, his last three or four opponents, you know, Jamahal Hill, Israel Adesanya, Jiri Prochazka, Corey Anderson, not grapplers. Like, they're strikers.
27:35
They're guys that are comfortable also on the feet. So that's the way that they're gonna look to have an advantage. Uh, Magomed Ankalaev is not that.
27:42
He is a guy that comes from a Dagestani background and has the ability to take it down, and Pereira came from that kickboxing background. So that's why you have to challenge it.
27:51
Now, you, you do have to remember, he is under the tutelage of Glover Teixeira. Pereira is a black belt in Brazilian jujitsu, and he has shown improvement when fights have gone to the ground.
28:01
But nonetheless, I think that, look, the public money's gonna be on Pereira, the fun money's gonna be on Pereira, but the smart play, in my opinion, is Magomed Ankalaev, 'cause he's got more ways to win this fight.
28:11
I hear you on that. When they fought the first time, Ankalaev was -200. Why the huge... I mean, is it, is it just enough to say the public loves Pereira to give that drastic of a line move?
28:21
Yeah, and I also think, uh, Magomed Ankalaev, you know, has, went the decision against Aleksandar Rakic. He had a pretty boring fight against Jan Blachowicz for an interim light heavyweight championship opportunity.
28:31
So, uh, it's, it's just he has had underwhelming performances. And against... A- and Pereira, a guy, two divisional champion.
28:38
And keep in mind, Gil, as I mentioned, like, he wins this fight, he's probably fighting Jon Jones for the heavyweight title next and has a chance to do something that's never been done, win a belt in three different weight classes.
28:50
Jon Jones- Wow... still lurking. Co-main, uh, Rafael Fiziev, Justin Gaethje. Uh, when they fought in 2023, Fiziev was a, a -230 favorite. He got housed. Technical term, Kelly. Mm. Uh, he's still a favorite here.
29:03
Not quite as high, though, -162, but still not negligible of a favorite. That's interesting. Yeah, I, I, I'm, I'm kind of shocked by the, these odds, because this is a short-notice f- fight.
29:14
You know, Justin Gaethje was supposed to fight Dan Hooker. Dan Hooker had a hand injury. Fiziev comes in after about a year-and-a-half layoff. He had a leg injury that prevented him from competing.
29:25
And, you know, he comes in under two weeks and, and is a, is a pretty heavy favorite against Justin Gaethje.
29:29
And I think the reason for that also is because Justin Gaethje's last fight, the brutal knockout at UFC 300 at the hands of Max Holloway. Like, we've seen knockouts before. That was a brutal one.
29:39
Like, he was out cold for quite some time, and that's what Jits- Justin Gaethje's known for. He's known for firefights. He's known for walking through to, to, you know, taking one to land two.
29:50
He's gonna get that fight against Rafael Fiziev, and, and I think the, the lateral movement that Fiziev has, the striking that he has, we're not gonna see wrestling by either fighter.
29:59
So I think at that price point right now, despite the layoff, despite the concern maybe about lateral movement for Fiziev with, with the, the knee injury, uh, I still like him at that price.
30:09
If it goes any higher, I'm not playing it. Uh, but I, I think Fiziev's gonna win the fight. Justin Gaethje's just been in too many wars. I think he's on his way down.
30:17
Uh, and it, and it's a, it's a winnable fight for Fiziev, especially at that price. All right. So Fiziev is an official play from you. O- Ankalaev- Yes... was not an official play?
30:26
No, but I, that's my recommendation as much as it pains me Okay But wait, wait for maybe m- more money to come in on Pereira, and then Ankae might be a plus money come, come fight night on Saturday night.
30:35
All right, where else you wanna go? Obviously, uh, Jalin Turner and Ignacio Bahamondes is a big one right before those two. Yeah, I've described this one as, like, two ships passing through the night.
30:44
I, I think Jalin Turner's on his way down. Uh, you'll like this guy, Gil, though. He's known as the, uh, Tarantula because he had an arachnophobia, so he bought himself, like, a dozen tarantulas. What? Stop it.
30:55
And, and got o- and, and got over his fear. Yeah. Really? [laughs] Yeah. So, uh, and look, he's a thumper, long, rangy fighter for the lightweight division. Uh, ha- has made some mental mistakes.
31:07
You know, he tried to have a walk-off KO against Renato Moicano, uh, and didn't get the walk-off KO, and then ended up losing the fight. And Bahamondes, I think, has better boxing.
31:17
He can work in grappling, and, and also just, like, height, weight, length-wise, like they match up the same. Jalin Turner typically has a, a size advantage. He won against Maha- Bahamondes.
31:28
Bahamondes also training out of Chicago with Belal Muhammad, the welterweight champion of the world. So I like Bahamondes on this fight, and that, that is an official play for me on the money line.
31:37
I think he's on his way up, and Jalin Turner likely on his way down. I love it. Arachnophobia. Yeah. Uh, I, I'm not, uh, thrilled with heights, but my instinct is not to go skydiving. You know what I mean? Oh, no. Yeah.
31:48
Yeah. I am... Same thing with you, and you will not catch me skydiving anytime soon. Okay. Well- Actually, actually, bungee jumping sounds even worse. Oh, forget it. People still do that? I don't know. Good point.
31:58
Sorry, Jordan. Maybe that died in the '90s. Sorry, Jordan, we had to have an aside there for a second. Apologize. Uh, preliminary, uh, preliminary cards, what do you got? What do you like best?
32:05
Yeah, I mean b- yeah, Carlos Ulloa, big, big favorite on this card against Alex Morono, uh, who's, you know, veteran, but he just hasn't looked great as of late. He's been stopped a couple of times in his last fight.
32:17
Uh, uh, Ulloa is, is coming from that fight nerds camp that's getting a lot of hype right now, a lot of steam, uh, and he's got some knockout power.
32:25
So I, I do think Ulloa's probably gonna get, Ulloa's gonna probably get the knockout, uh, and the finish, but there is also some part of me that Morono could, could work in some grappling, get some takedowns, and, and, and get a, a stoppage.
32:36
So I'm just gonna play the under at two and a half, uh, but Ulloa, heavy favorite. He's likely gonna get the 10 raise, but just to, you know, kind of hedge a little bit, uh, I do think there's a finish.
32:46
This one's not going to the judges' scorecards. All right. Ignacio Bahamondes, uh, -125. Uh, that's right before the, uh, co-main and the main. Rafael Fiziev, uh, -162 in the co-main.
32:58
Uh, no official, but leaning towards, uh, Ankae in the, uh, in the main event. And then Alex Morono, Carlos Ulloa, uh, Moranda, under two and a half.
33:06
By the way, nothing on the, uh, on the Amanda Lemos, Yasmein Lucindo fight? Nothing there? I, I look, I think Amanda Lemos is a former title challenger. She's been in there with better competition.
33:16
Lucindo may be on her way up, but I, I think Lemos' gamesmanship, despite the 12-year age gap, uh, may be a small play on Lemos as, as the dog. I, I just think she's just been in a better competition.
33:27
Lucindo has to prove it to me that she's up, uh, near the top of that division before I say, "Okay, she's officially there." Jordan, always a pleasure, man. Thank you so much. All right, guys.
33:36
Jordan Sherwood, everybody, on UFC 313. Check out all his stuff once again, Wood on ESPN 1000. Jason Weingarten on the other side.
33:52
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back with the numbers game, live from Circa, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin alongside. Still to come, uh, Chris Felica will join us.
34:05
Has bets in five different sports, and then, uh, Steve Fezzik, the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest with, uh, an array of sports betting tocket, uh, topics. That's right. Did we just...
34:15
We're an array? An array of them. Topics, bets, everything. Yeah, he's got it all. Uh, we get tweets that be in the book.
34:22
This is from, oh, but DJ and Southern Gent wanted to follow up, uh, 'cause I was asking about Jensen Brooksby.
34:26
Uh, and he points out a, a piece about Jensen Brooksby, who, uh, Zach got correct in the end and I did not, on the Benjamin Bonzi, Jensen Brooksby match yesterday.
34:35
Jensen Brooksby opens up about living with autism as a professional tennis player. Uh, "Time for me to share something that I've kept quiet for my entire life.
34:43
I was diagnosed on the severe end of the spectrum as a very young child, non-verbal until the age of four." Wow. How about that? Um- What a story. Yeah. That's great. Yeah, professional tennis player. Good for him.
34:55
Good for him. Uh, this is [clears throat] pardon me, and, uh, [clears throat] Roger Jones, "Gil, I know you touched on this briefly, but I need a deeper look behind the curtain. Has someone chastised K.
35:05
Michael Bidlin for his numbers game promo? Because recently he approaches it with the same verve as Todd's greeting on the Megapod."
35:13
Todd's greeting on the Megapod goes like this, "And now, and Todd, and from his mom's core attic, Todd Wishnam." And Todd goes, "Hey." [laughs] Did you not read the promo with enthusiasm?
35:22
I thought I did, as in a numbers game. Oh, is that the one, you think? I think that's what he's talking about. Oh, yeah.
35:27
That's what he's talking about, 'cause you know we are not- I think that's what he's talking about... yeah. Mm-hmm. Yeah. You usually do the promos for the next day. Right.
35:33
I, I thought it was- We got a lot of promos going these days, folks. Yeah, yeah, yeah. A lot of promos.
35:36
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, from under a cloud of smoke in Southern California, though, uh, someone's suggested on Twitter that I say a cl- uh, under a cloud, it's period, because it's that way in Southern California.
35:45
It's Jason Weingarten at Spreadapedia, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. He joins us now. How you doing, Jason? Pretty good. How's it going? Doing very well.
35:54
Um, so I wanted you to expand on something you talked about last time. The, because for those who missed it, why you don't have as many baseball bets this year as in the past. You view the markets how right now?
36:09
The markets are competitive, whereas in years past, I think you had a lot of opportunity to get down on good numbers early in the season or in spring training.
36:20
I think the markets have sort of, uh, sharpened up a little bit. For example, uh, I was surprised to see Bobby Witt the favorite for AL MVP, slightly ahead of Aaron Judge. Uh, Garrett Crochet on, uh-
36:35
Uh, on the, the Red Sox, he's plus 370 at FanDuel for Cy Young.
36:39
There's a guy I'd love to bet, but even the earliest numbers, you know, that opened in late December, January, he was still eight to one, 10 to one, which isn't a very compelling bet for a, a Cy Young bet at, you know, January, before even spring training.
36:55
Um, but to see him plus 370 now, like, there's a guy I love. I, I'm very high on him, but I just don't see a lot of value in a lot of these numbers, you know? Jason Dominguez, he's three to one.
37:08
I liked him last year when he was 100 to one. Um, not exactly running out to bet three to one the first week of March right now. Just these are, these are good players out there, just they're not necessarily good bets.
37:22
But you, you are, you have less long shot appeal that, this year as well, though. Like, usually you'll come up with a sort of a diamond in the rough somewhere. Not, not this year so much.
37:32
I have a couple guys that I could, could put some money on, you know? Sit- it's more situations than players. I'm always looking for, you know, uh, a team that doesn't have an outfielder, for example.
37:44
That's how Michael Harris won when the, when he was on the, the Braves the year he won Rookie of the Year. Uh, Braves had an open outfield spot and somebody took advantage of it.
37:53
So, uh, I'm still mostly looking at spots where I think players are gonna have the opportunity, because we've seen, you know, especially the last couple years, uh, with Rookie of the Year, that the, the first month or even the first two months don't particularly matter.
38:08
Uh, we'll see a lot of movement across the board.
38:10
For example, last year, uh, Shota Imanaga and Jared Jones took turns as, as, you know, two to one favorites as pitchers and, uh, neither one of them ended up receiving significant votes.
38:21
So, uh, especially with Rookie of the Year stuff, I'm, I'm not, uh, running out to, to jump into some positions here knowing, you know, what I've seen the last couple years. And it's just sort of another matter of fact.
38:35
You look at some of these pitchers, uh, Bubba Chandler eight and a half to one, Jackson Jobe five to one.
38:42
Uh, outside of Sasaki, I, I don't think there's any argument to be made that you need to bet any pitcher at a low number.
38:50
I mean, we even saw with Skeens down the stretch, he was trading back at double digit numbers against Merrill the last couple weeks of the season. So, um, you know, biding, biding time is effective in certain situations.
39:06
That didn't stop me from making some more bets on, uh, over under on home run guys this week, though. Oh, what you got? Uh, Freddie Freeman is 20 and a half at FanDuel.
39:17
I would very much like somebody to walk me through that number, because other than the, the COVID season where, you know, played 60 games instead of 162, um, the last time Freddie Freeman didn't hit that number was 2015.
39:32
So, um, you know, that's not my full reasoning for betting it, but where do you get 20 and a half with Freddie Freeman expected to play the full season? I don't understand that number.
39:44
Um, someone needs to walk me through it. Then the other one is, uh, Michael Toglia, a player you might not be as familiar with. He's a first baseman DH in Colorado. His total is 23 and a half.
39:58
Uh, considering his projections and the amount of at bats he should be getting and the lack of competition to keep him from getting those at bats, uh, he should go well over 23 and a half with a full season of course.
40:10
Um, that one's short. Um, other than that, I think I went over a couple other ones earlier in the week. Uh, we talked about Mike Trout a little bit.
40:19
Trout stays healthy, he's absolutely gonna crush that number and likely be an MVP candidate again.
40:25
It'll come down, obviously, to the Angels being competitive or not, but 24 and a half for Mike Trout, uh, assuming he's healthy and plans on playing more than 115 games this year, is, is also extremely low.
40:39
I k- I knew if I prodded hard enough we could squee- we could squeeze it out of Jason. The, the Trout thing is interesting because you're the third person on this show, right?
40:46
Lagares had over 24 and a half, you're saying over 24 and a half. I think JBT had most home runs at 66 to one. Yeah, he went the long shot way, but yeah. He went the long shot route.
40:55
You're right, it's a, it's an injury number, um, or an, you know, anticipation of injury. Again, a guy who has not had 500 at bats since the year 2016. The Freddie Freeman thing I completely agree with, too.
41:06
It's like, it feels like that number is with the built-in assumption of injury. Um, why would it only be 20 and a half? I, I, I would agree with you there as well. That's, tho- those are curious numbers. Yeah.
41:18
I mean, the Freeman one especially, he's back in the lineup. He should be ready to go for opening day. So, um, it's not like the Dodgers are gonna rest him every four days or five days, you know?
41:28
Like, I, I just don't understand that number. I'd, I'd very much like someone to explain to me how they got 20 and a half with Freddie Freeman.
41:35
But either way, you know, easy, easy over, I'm saying, as long as he stays healthy. So J- Jason, these are, these have been all overs for you so far in this market, right?
41:44
Are, are they all kind of injury angles that you're attacking? I- is that what you, you think you're, uh, you're finding here in these numbers? Uh, no. I mean, not, not necessarily only injury angles.
41:55
A lot of it is playing time angle.
41:57
For example, like, I think Michael Toglia's not getting, uh, the, the playing time that, that he's gonna get, you know, necessa- like I, I don't think it's projected he's gonna be the full-time starter if there's only 23 and a half playing, of course.
42:11
But a lot of them, um, for example, Marcell Ozuna's a guy I bet the last two years. I haven't bet him this year. But a lot of times it's just going against sentiment, you know? Mm.
42:21
Senti- because Ozuna was washed and coming off a bad season, and they wanted to cut him and this and that.
42:28
And, you know, his, his home run total the last two or three years, I want to say it was, like, 18 or 19 and a half, and then it was in the mid or, mid or low 20s last year. Now it's 30 and a half this year.
42:39
I, I, I don't necessarily want to bet over 30 and a half this year.
42:42
I think that's a lot more accurate, but- A lot of times you, you, you'll find a guy like that, you'll ride him for a year or two, then the market will eventually adjust and you gotta find somebody else.
42:52
So this year it does seem like there are some guys coming off injury, Mike Trout, Freeman being two of them. Um, but otherwise, I mean, it's mostly coming down to projecting playing time.
43:04
And sometimes coming off injuries, you have a hard time projecting the exact amount of time. But, um, I'm confident both of those guys are gonna do well, assuming they, uh, you know, they get the at-bats.
43:15
Last one before you go here. Um, I'm workshopping this one. I haven't bet this yet. Most hits. I get it, Luis Arias should be the short shot, as should Bobby Witt.
43:25
Jung-hoo Lee, who will return to the Giants lineup in the leadoff position. He was the, uh, KBO Rookie of the Year, the Korean League in 2017. He won MVP in the Korean League in 2022.
43:35
He only had, like, 145 at-bats last year. 30 to one. Worth the shot?
43:41
30 to one seem short, but, uh, leadoff hitter, I think that's probably one of the, the, obviously one of the top spots you're gonna wanna, you're gonna wanna consider for most hits, you know, most at-bat opportunities.
43:54
Um, probably want a better number than 30. You think he's- I'll shop. That's the first one I saw. I'll shop, for sure. Yeah. Uh, I don't know. I, I think I want a higher number than that there. Yep. Okay. Makes sense.
44:05
Just workshopping. Haven't bet it yet. Jason Weingarten, everybody, from under a cloud of smoke in Southern California. You can follow him on Twitter @spreadapedia. Thank you, Jason.
44:15
Jason, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. All right, Chris Felica bets in five different sports: soccer, baseball, tennis, horse racing, college basketball. That's on the other side, followed by Steve Fezzik.
44:28
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