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Mar 7, 2025
A Numbers Game | March 7, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | March 7, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:36
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Billin alongside.
0:21
Uh, Steve Fezzik standing by to, uh, join us in studio for a few segments, talk all things sports betting, an array of topics.
0:28
Uh, but first, as is always the case the second hour on Fridays, we bring in our buddy from Fox Sports, you know him as the Bear, El Oso.
0:35
It's Chris Fallica, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, to bet, or not to, to, to reveal his bets, I should say, on five different sports. How you doing, man?
0:45
I, I, I'm doing well, and I thought about making a s- making a sixth with you, but, um, I didn't have a play on what, what I'm just gonna dub as the, the, the Todd Wright prop on FanDuel.
0:55
[laughs] Like, will, will the Stanley Cup champion come from the United States or Canada? Yes.
0:59
So may- next time you have either, uh, Jay Hahn or Andy McNeil or Todd on, you can see if they're, get their opinions on a bet FanDuel prop- I for-... Stanley Cup champion- I for-... US or Canada...
1:08
I forgot to tell Todd about this prop. Todd, uh, has these always every year behind the scenes, he's like, "A team from Canada will not win the Stanley Cup," and now there's an actual prop for it.
1:16
Uh, before we launch into your picks, uh, the both of us have a documentary, uh, recommendation for folks. It's ne- not a documentary. It's a, uh... What would you call it? I guess it is a documentary technically. Yeah.
1:27
Yeah. Yeah. Uh, it's on Netflix. It's called Sweet Bobby. If you like a good catfish story, and I mean a good one- [laughs]... that is the documentary for you. Puts Manteca to shame. It do- it really does. Oh, my God.
1:42
Sweet Bobby is your documentary recommendation. All right, where do you wanna start? Tennis? Let's start with tennis. Yeah.
1:48
Well, you, you start with tennis 'cause I, I don't know, they may take these numbers down quickly before the, uh, the matches get underway today.
1:54
But any- it's just a simple, uh, Aryna Sabalenka to win the quarter out, out there. She's minus 120. Uh, I know she has a Jasmine Paolini, I think, in her draw.
2:03
Uh, Alexandrova, who beat her in the Middle East a couple of weeks ago.
2:06
But, but Ary- Sabalenka has been very outspoken, a- as Iga was, about how just not feeling comfortable, uh, playing in the Middle East, whether it's the time zone, whatever it might be, the surface, indoor, and, uh, I, I think getting back out, out to, uh, Indian Wells in a, at a, at a hard court, in an outdoor hard court setting, I think that'll treat her well.
2:25
And, uh, like I said, and I know she's got some people in that draw that maybe look imposing, but, uh, I, I don't think she'll have any trouble on winning that quarter. So just a...
2:33
It's the only bet I've actually made in Indian Wells in terms of the future. Yeah, and she got the best of it with her draw, no question about that. Kessler is her, uh, second-round opponent.
2:42
And then oth- otherwise, in that, as you mentioned, Paolini, uh, Leila Fernandes, Kasatkina, Alexandrova, Kudermetova, not the, not the hardest quarter, for sure. Uh, let's go to college hoops. You got a trio of plays.
2:54
Yeah. Uh, Illinois State, whi- which, uh, i- I think now they're getting one. I, it was a pick when I sent the info to you and Kelly.
3:01
But, uh, Illinois State against Belmont, it's a, a four five game, uh, i- in the Missouri Valley.
3:06
Illinois State, a lot of times you see in these conference tournaments, like, the, the higher seed that maybe doesn't play a game early, or maybe they start a little bit slow. Saw it a couple of times la- last night.
3:17
But Illinois State got their legs under them. They started slow yesterday against a, a bad Southwest Missouri State team and, and just roared back and won easily. They're a good shooting team. Uh,
3:29
f- first game was a, a close game that would, that I think they beat Belmont by three, uh, in the regular season. But, but I like...
3:35
This Illinois State team is very, uh, capable of, uh, hitting some threes, knocking down some shots, and, uh, and going up and down the court with Belmont.
3:42
So I, I like, uh, like the Redbirds, uh, getting a, ce- certainly getting a point now in, uh, Missouri Valley.
3:48
Uh, the Boise State Colorado State game, it looks like it might have moved a little bit since I sent it to you and Kelly. Uh, I sent Boise minus five and a half against CSU. It looks like it's six or six and a half now.
3:59
Uh, I still like it. Uh, there's seeding at play here. Home court, I think, really matters a lot in the Mountain West. Uh, these two teams played a really good game, uh, in Fort Collins earlier this year.
4:10
CSU got up big, uh, and then Boise came roaring back. Uh, and CSU actually needed a late shot, uh, to, to win.
4:17
But I, I know CSU kind of has an outside chance, like, eyeing for the, uh, the conference title, but that, that's assuming that New Mexico loses at the pit to UNLV, which I don't think that's gonna happen.
4:28
But, but Boise's a really good team at home, blew out Utah State a couple of weeks ago. So I like the Broncos, uh, might even now even minus six or six and a half now, whatever it might be.
4:37
Our guy- And I'd lay the eight- Our guy Tyson- Oh, sorry? Our guy Tyson Degenhardt still playing college basketball there at Boise State.
4:42
Yeah, that's 'cause he'll prob- probably go to the line about 18 times again tonight. Hmm. Which, which is way, which, which is what he does best.
4:49
And again, you're gonna g- uh, your, that spread is kinda in that foul zone as well where, uh, they could be up three or four late, and the fouls are coming, and they wind up winning, uh, by eight or nine.
4:59
So I, I have no trouble laying the number there. And, uh, I laid the eight and a half with VCU. I think Dayton is one of the more overrated teams in the country.
5:07
Uh, I think it, we still have this fixation maybe, or maybe it's just me who has this fixation, like thinking back to, like, that 2020 Dayton team, like, uh, this is the type of team that they are.
5:17
And then you look up every week, and they're struggling with, uh, St. Louis. They're in an overtime game with a bad Richmond team. I think VCU comes out tonight and absolutely blows Dayton off the floor. Um, follow-up.
5:30
Illinois State 10 to 1 to win the Missouri Valley. Uh, you not, you are not interested in that still, as we're in the quarters? Uh, I don't know. They... Are they gonna be able to beat Bradley and Drake?
5:42
I mean, that, that's the thing.
5:43
Like, it was funny, I think it was Will that brought it up, like, uh, who, Will, Will Hill who was like, "I'd love a yes/no on Drake to win the Missouri Valley Conference," and he, and he had those great numbers behind it as well.
5:53
Uh, but yeah, I don't know if I can get behind 10 to 1 just to win that.
5:56
Just, yeah, you gotta, you're gonna have to beat Belmont, and then you're gonna have to beat, beat Drake, and then you're probably gonna have to, like, most likely beat Bradley And would you, uh, again, we don't know the brackets obviously with March Madness, but VCU feels like one of those teams that you might possibly consider a to-make-Final-Four bet on, that kind of thing?
6:14
Oh, I did. I did, yeah. I bet, I bet them at, uh, I bet them at 60 to 1 to make the Final Four. Oh, you did? Okay. Just total, just totally on the blind.
6:20
I think, I think they're still out there at like 50 to 1, but I found it at 60 and, and better.
6:24
Yeah, I, I think they're gonna be on that 10 or 11 line, and I think they're gonna be a really dangerous team for, uh, for a six and then a three or a two in that second round. All right.
6:33
To baseball, you got three there, season long. Yeah. Yeah, I did. I bet, um, uh, again, I'm gonna steal this from Will. I'm gonna a- I shouldn't say steal, aggregate it- There you go...
6:41
from our, our, our good friend Will Hill. [laughs] Um, a- and bet the Dodgers. Uh, he brought this up on the podcast yesterday that we, that we r- po- posted.
6:50
The Dodgers are minus 165 to be the number one seed in the National League, and it's kind of like who, if it's not them, who is it gonna be?
7:00
Now, if you don't like going win total over w- 103 and a half or 104 and a half or whatever it might be, this is kind of a different way to play it.
7:07
Like, the NL East, you got the, the Phillies and the Mets and the Braves are all kind of good teams. I, I don't think any of them are gonna win like 100 games. I guess the, the, the Nats are seen to be better.
7:18
The Marlins are bad. The Central, I don't think you have a threat that, to be a number one seed.
7:22
Like, the Dodgers won however many games they won last year, and they had a million injuries, and they brought in reinforcements all over the place this year.
7:30
So I, I know maybe you don't wanna tie up money until October, but like the Dodgers minus 165 to be the number one seed, like I don't really know how they're not.
7:41
Yeah, I guess the Phillies and Braves would be the biggest contenders for that, but I understand the point, for sure. Yeah.
7:46
A- a- and, and then I threw a couple of darts on some strikeout leaders in the, uh, in, in the Majors. I bet, uh, I bet Cole Ragans at 22 to 1.
7:53
Uh, he had 2, 223 last year, which was fifth, which was just five behind Tarik Skubal. He actually had a slightly higher K per nine rate, uh, th- than Skubal and, and that was his first complete year in the bigs.
8:06
Uh, I think if he can take a step forward this year, he's got the benefit of being in that AL Central where you got, uh, Cleveland and Detroit and then obviously however many games against the White Sox.
8:17
I mean, he, he was one of the bigger prospects in baseball and a big centerpiece of a trade with the Rangers.
8:22
So, uh, if he takes a step forward, he certainly could, uh, challenge for the league lead again and maybe even a Cy Young. And then I even threw a bigger dart.
8:30
I threw a 880 to 1 shot on, uh, Tanner Bibee o- of, of Cleveland to lead a league in Ks again. He had some trouble at times working, uh, deep into games.
8:39
A lot of times he was pulled, uh, in, in the fifth or so, uh, high pitch count, but again, he was close to 10 strikeouts per nine innings.
8:46
He was, uh, second to Gunnar Henderson in Rookie of the Year a couple of years ago, so he is highly thought of again as well and like, just like Ragans.
8:53
Plays in a division with the White Sox, and Indians lineup is probably gonna strike out. Maybe a, the Tigers line up that, maybe. Who, who the heck knows? So, uh, just thr- throw a dart. I mean, I mean- Yeah...
9:03
you don't always, you know, you don't expect to win an 80 to 1 shot, but, uh, a couple of bucks never hurt. No, I respect the thinking.
9:09
Tanner Bibee who finished 17th, but again, uh, with 187 strikeouts last year, but again, with only 173 and two-third innings pitched. To soccer, sir.
9:19
Uh, I got three, uh, team total unders for, uh, for, for S- for Saturday, uh, tomorrow. I, I got Luton under a half a goal, uh, minus 110 at Burnley. Burnley, Burnley finding a lot of goal, uh, this week.
9:32
So, uh, JJ Watt will not be coming back to play with the Bengals, for those of you who are unfamiliar with that story.
9:37
Uh, JJ Watt is part owner of Burnley, and he said, "If we don't allow a goal, uh, in league play the rest of the year, uh, I'm gonna come back and play for the Bengals."
9:45
Uh, they did allow a goal, but now they face Luton a- at home. I think they've allowed four goals at home all year. Uh, should be a complete mismatch.
9:53
Uh, then we're gonna go down to the League One, uh, when play, uh, Northampton under a half a goal, a little bit of plus money at Leyton Orient.
10:01
Leyton Orient is a very, a- another deliberate team, play a lot of low-scoring games. Northampton, uh, not a very high-scoring team, should be kind of a sleepwalking-type match.
10:10
And then I play Valladolid, uh, under a half a goal at Valencia. Uh, Valencia is in the midst of a relegation fight. Valladolid is the, one of the worst teams or the worst team in, uh, La Liga.
10:22
So, uh, I don't expect them to go on the road and, uh, and do much as either. So we'll look for three clean sheets tomorrow there in soccer. Nice job on Valladolid. Uh, okay. [laughs] Horse racing, sport number five.
10:32
Uh, Florida Derby, excuse me, Florida Oaks, Tampa Derby. Mm-hmm. We got a minute. Give us your thumbnail on these two. Yeah, we, they, they shouldn't, shouldn't be too, too, uh, too difficult here.
10:40
Uh, the Florida Oaks, I don't have necessarily a horse that I want to land on, but I am totally against the favorite in this race, uh, the nine horse, Nitrogen. Uh, absolute bet against, my suggest- worth it really.
10:53
Uh, anytime you're a dead closer, uh, you need everything to go right. I would look for a horse you like the most, uh, at the best price and play against Nitrogen.
11:02
And then in the Tampa Derby, I like, uh, Chancellor McPatrick, who is the, uh, horse coming back. Uh, Chad Brown's big horse is coming back. Again, I don't know if he'll be fully cranked for this.
11:10
I think, uh, the seven horse, Patch Adams, who's two to one on the morning line, gets the jump, and Brad Cox has called, uh, Patch Adams wins the Tampa Derby. Patch Adams. Chris, appreciate it.
11:21
Uh, that'll give us a lot to run through when we, uh, recap- Absolutely... in the G Bank Best Bets later. Very thorough.
11:25
Soon you won't have the Pioneer on at the end of the show or else it doesn't take up that entire segment. [laughs] We gotta get the Pioneer back on for college hoops. He loves conference tournaments. Next episode.
11:33
That's what I like. He had all his, oh, what happened to all of his conference tournament subsets? We gonna have that next week?
11:37
[laughs] He, he'll only reveal half of them, but sure, we'll get him on to reveal that half. Talking about Dr. Bob, of course. Thank you, Chris. Appreciate it. You got it, bud. Steve Fezzik next in the house.
11:47
It's a Numbers Game at VSIN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSIN, the sports betting network. All right, do yourself a favor.
12:02
Remember this URL, vsin.com/champweek. No cost, no commitment. Free until Selection Sunday. Sign up today at vsin.com/champweek. Enjoy full VSiN Pro access instantly.
12:16
That includes daily best bets to help you cash more tickets, exclusive betting splits from DraftKings and Circa, 24/7 video with full access to the VSiN Watch app, full vsin.co- uh,.com access, including expert analysis, trends, and pro betting systems.
12:29
Don't miss out, it's all free. This VSiN Pro preview is free. Get the insights you need to bet the tournament smarter, no cost, no commitment. Sign up now, vsin.com/champweek. Have I mentioned that?
12:39
And enjoy free access through March 16th. That's V-S-I-N.com/champweek. Um, we got tweets that'll be in the book. I just wanna read one here. This is from Brosek1870.
12:51
He goes, "Didn't Jason do this last year, too, with the baseball?" He says, "Then a week before the season started, he had an article called How to Bet $5,000 on Baseball Futures. Somebody call the postmaster general."
13:02
I think he did. Now that you mention it, he kind of slow-played it last year, too, and then he just dropped the bomb right, right, uh, close to the baseball season.
13:10
Um, also we got, uh, Ice Cold Gambler who texted in, uh, Jason, or tweeted in, "Jason looks like he's a character on Fraggle Rock." Fraggle Rock reference, ladies and gentlemen. It's actually a pretty good one.
13:20
Um, we have an intro for this gentleman. It's time for Fezzik Fridays. [upbeat music] Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Fezzik Fridays.
13:34
Oh, you're official now, man. Steve Fezzik, ladies and gentlemen, in studio, the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest. How you doing?
13:42
So, for a year I talked to Gill, so Crack gets his intro, and everybody loves, you know, the Crack Thursdays, gets juiced up with that intro. Yeah. No intro for Fezz, but- Now you got one... now I've arrived.
13:53
By the way, you've had one for a couple weeks, I just botched it. No, I botched it. I, I talked over it. Well, 'cause you don't have your earpiece in, so you don't hear it also. Earpiece. That's a problem.
14:01
I wasn't told there was earpieces involved. I wasn't told there were earpieces. [laughs] All right, we have about 75 things to talk about.
14:06
Um, can we start with the one that I would least expect you to talk about, which is basketball, the NBA? Sure. You, you have, you have very strong feelings on, um...
14:17
Well, let's start with the, let's start first of all with the Lakers, the Lakers who are on this win streak. Uh, they end up beating the Knicks in overtime last night, and you believe what about them?
14:25
It's time to dump the Lakers. Okay, we get it. The Lakers, this is working way better than we ever expected it to. Now they've won eight games in a row, most since 2019, but, like, this Knicks game, miraculous cover.
14:41
Knicks are winning the whole game. Yep. Goes to overtime, where Dr. Bob gets unlucky in his selections, and underdo- because underdogs go to die, and [laughs] No, Bob wasn't on this game. Yeah.
14:52
And ultimately the Lakers get it done with a miracle cover, winning by four, so even covering the minus three. So it, like, oftentimes I see, it's like I'm waiting to fade a hot team. Where is the buy point?
15:04
And this is it, baby. So they get the cover. This is the sell point is what you're saying. This is the sell point. Yeah. This is the apex.
15:10
It's like the movie Wall Street, "Stock's going to Pluto, baby," and Charlie Sheen says, "Dump it. Dump it all." All right.
15:17
So the oth- the other NBA thing, and this is the thing that I lo- uh, traditionally on this show, or historically on this show, that we have loved most this time of year is, all right, uh, what started out in 2018 as Tankapalooza, which was a real betting vehicle, which was awesome, but they changed the lottery rules so it's not really Tankapalooza anymore so much as it is, is it time to just sort of say it's NBA brain-dead parlay season, money line parlay?
15:42
I know how you feel about parlays, but, but you do feel that there is a team or two that is just not trying to win.
15:48
Yeah, so, and I can't name a player on their team, but my, just watching the, at the o- Al and Boston watch the ticker, right? So Brooklyn, oftentimes they're styling early in their games.
15:59
They get leads, they're doing well, and that team can't score suddenly in the fourth quarter.
16:05
Like, they are desperately [laughs] not trying to put in, put the biscuit in the basket, and you see it again and again, where like, well, Brooklyn's got, like, nine points eight minutes into the fourth quarter, and then they blow their leads and they lose the games.
16:17
So last night, perfect storm Brooklyn, they're playing everybody. They're up 20 against Golden State, and on our group chat text, I'm like, "Golden State's gonna win. Let's get on Golden State."
16:27
And by the third quarter, you know, Golden State had pulled even and the game was never in doubt. It's amazing how well Brooklyn plays, though, when they get down eight again.
16:34
Then they can score, because they know they're not gonna come back all the way, so. Well, you, you're not suggesting it's the players on the court. It's the put- it's the players they put on the court.
16:42
Oh, n- exactly right. Yeah, yeah. Well, well said. Yeah. Every player wants to win, and they're playing their very hardest. Yeah. Yes. With maybe the exception of Terry Rozier, but that's a whole nother subject.
16:51
Saw those clips. Yeah. Uh, time to get- Whole nother... time to get some, um- [laughs] There's billboards in Vegas with all kinds of lawyers, so there's good lawyers out there. Even trying to hide it anymore?
17:00
Um- By the way, the Utah Jazz, another team that is, uh, openly sort of not trying to win basketball games. Yeah, but the Jazz seem to excel at it all four quarters, not just the fourth quarter. Yes.
17:09
[laughs] You mention in there the group chat. Um, I bring this up from time to time. Uh, me, you, Todd Wishnev, Will Hill, Chris Felica, we're all in a group chat, the five of us.
17:20
We are, you know, as, as, as the wives and girlfriends say, "Oh, are you talking to your girlfriends again," right? There's maybe h- I mean, hundreds of texts that get exchanged on a daily basis.
17:30
We're live betting stuff. Um, and we don't s- y- you bring up the point that we don't say this to say, "Hey, look, we're on a group text," that there's actually huge value in this. You know, think about it.
17:39
You can't be at all places at all times.
17:42
So even, like, on an NFL Sunday, the first guy to spot, like, a possible quarterback injury or a key player injury, to be able to let and alert everyone and talk about, like, even with player prop betting and the like.
17:54
So everybody brings something to the table. Um, sometimes, like, in terms of live wagering, you know, uh, I actually get, like, Todd Wishnev is just, excels at live wagering. Yes. He's phenomenal. It's what he does best.
18:06
And there's, there's dumbos on the internet that are like, "Oh, Todd lives with his parents in the cork attic," and like, "He's, he's not good at this." And it's, it, it, it almost infuriates me. They don't know Todd.
18:15
They haven't, like, worked- Yeah... with him.
18:17
And there's, like, in the movie In Search for Bobby Fischer, the father is talking about his son, and his teacher refers to, he's, he's a chess master, and he's like, "Well, I'm worried about this chess thing your son's doing."
18:26
The dad's like My son, uh, Todd is better at live wa- wagering- [laughs]... than you will be at any wagering your entire life. Yeah.
18:36
So while you still, if you're just gonna refer to this as his live wagering thing- Oh... our conversation has terminated.
18:41
By the way, I love how passionate you're getting about this, even with the slam of the glasses on the ground, because one of the things I saw was, "Well, yeah, you know, uh, you know, sometimes I, I can't get his numbers."
18:50
Well, yeah, sometimes you're not gonna be able to, 'cause you know why? It's live wagering. This is not a, a pick service giving out their pick and front-running you. He's not asking for any money.
19:00
He's not asking for any, that's right. He's, and of course he's gonna get the best number. He's the one that's originating it- Yeah... making the bet first. He knows how many team fouls Liberty has.
19:09
He knows how many team fouls Mississippi State has, uh, uh, um, uh, this, uh, Middle Tennessee State has. He knows who has the possession arrow. Yeah.
19:17
And you listen to all these other shows, and I'll say it, they are no good. They have no idea of any of this information. How could they? This is high-level stuff.
19:25
Todd is playing, like, advanced chess, and everyone else is playing, you know, tic-tac-toe, and they're losing with O.
19:32
But that's one example of what you're talking about, and so this is where, you know, if you and your buddies wanna get into a group text with each other, it is great that everybody has their own sort of expertise.
19:41
Todd, by far, gives the most picks, 'cause he's the one doing the live betting, so the rest of us give a fraction of those picks. And I congratulate him on his winners faster than anyone. [laughs] Well, okay.
19:50
Why do you, why, we, this came up on the show the other day. Why do you insist on doing this? I know you think this is funny- [laughs]...
19:56
that you do this, but it is gambling 101 that you do not call a winner before it happens.
20:00
I, I understand, but my left brain, obviously, me declaring an, a, a first half over a winner when we only need five points the final three minutes is not gonna impact the result.
20:11
[laughs] The gaming, great gaming odds gods out there are not gonna say, "Oh, Stevie declared this one too early."
20:17
You are suggesting that this is not scientific, that gamblers are not i-n any way l- relying on science, that calling a winner early manifests in losers from time to time. So I've been better.
20:28
I, I just finger, like this, this last night, "Todd, I've got my fingers crossed. This looks very favorable right now." Yes. "Let's hope it comes through."
20:35
Or you'll just do it before the, before the game even starts at this point. Yeah.
20:38
[laughs] Um, yeah, no, I think that's a, it, it really is a great thing because you are, listen, Todd's doing that, and just I'll, I'll give our example, right? Um, and so you, you're the great aggregator, you know?
20:50
You're aggregating picks. By the way, nice job on the tennis aggregation. I, I have originations, like, like, for instance, like- You have originations... so by example, and that drives me crazy. People are so stupid.
20:59
They're like, "Fezz gets all this information from other people," like, like I'm not doing nothing myself? Like, like, like, I mean, I do both. Yeah.
21:05
Well, people, the, the aggregation part, you and I have talked about this, you probably should, you know, maybe give more credit to people, but I'm just saying, I get it. What, what are you originating?
21:12
What are you most, most famous for originating, would you say? Probably games of the year. Okay. Yeah. That's, uh, one of my- But in what sport would you say? NFL. NFL games of the year.
21:20
I can s- I can set a line better in the NFL than the, than the bookmakers in Vegas can. Yeah. And that's on a week-to-week basis during the season that you wanna be- Before the season starts- Before the season starts...
21:29
and during the season as well. Yes. Oh, okay. I see. Yeah. Um, how, and before the season starts, what would you say your s- your CLV rate is on that? Gosh,
21:41
not as good as you think because the, the vagaries of the team, like, I, I might bet- Sure... a week 15- That's what I, that's what I had...
21:47
I may lay five, and that team might be laying 10, or that team might be getting two by that time. Or somebody gets hurt, right? Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Um, okay.
21:55
And, you know, so I just think that's, that's a great sort of thing to suggest to folks. Mm. Yeah. Almost 100%, though, by the time the g- the season kicks off. So if I lay two in August, my CLV is, like, 90% plus.
22:08
I'm always getting the best of it before the season starts because nothing really changes in August. Oh, I see what you're saying. Yeah. Gotcha.
22:15
Um, right, so CLV by September, whenever the season starts, but not necessarily by game time. Exactly. Oh, okay. Um, gotcha. Steve Fezzik, uh, so much more to talk about, um, including season win totals.
22:30
Steve has, uh, things to say about that, um, and anything else that's on your mind, um, including also beyond, uh, season win totals, I should point out, uh, you wanna talk about, uh, the, the notion of why a half a point can turn losing bettors into winners, dumbos into winners.
22:49
That and more coming up. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. You're probably not great at betting every sport. Let Rhythm help. Rhythm, Rhythm is gonna get you.
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23:31
Quick, uh, Steve, uh, name a, uh, a word in the English language, six letters, no vowels. Rhythm. Correct. Bill Ady will be proud. Uh, name a word, nine letters, one vowel. Don't know. Strengths. That's what we'll put.
23:47
Shocked I couldn't get that. Uh, we get tweets at Beat of the Book. I made it plural just to get to nine. [laughs] Uh, we get plural, uh, we get plural. We get tweets at [laughs] we also get plural with the tweets.
23:55
Monty Spires, "Gil, where can I follow Todd's in-game plays?" Great question. We probably should have mentioned this. If I was doing my job, I would've said this last segment.
24:02
Uh, @T- Wish- T- Wishnev, pardon me, T- Wishnev on Twitter, W-I-S-H-N-E-V, or as, as Todd likes to say, just think wish never, wish you would never hang out with him.
24:12
Uh, Todd, T- Wishnev, he will oftentimes, not often, it's not regular, but every once in a while when he has the time, he will think to himself, "Oh, I'll add more people to my chat."
24:22
But if you express your interest in doing so at T- Wishnev, he will add you at some point. Uh, Brian M. B. Morianan, "Missed the start of a numbers game. What was Kelly Bidlin's side bet today?
24:32
You get the White Sox, he gets [laughs] the Dodgers most wins. If he wins, you do his laundry and a bet list for a month. You win, he uses Fezz's comps to get you a bottle of water."
24:41
I know that was some nonsense yesterday, that bet he had. I got a prop for you. How about who- Is, what would it be more of? Dodger wins versus White Sox losses. That would be a good prop.
24:51
I would still say do- I would still say White Sox losses- Oh, yeah... is the, is the heavy favorite. Yeah. Oh, yes.
24:56
Because I d- I do think, and I mean, I know we should probably have talked about this, that you, 'cause I don't think we did when you've been on, which is you, you, you love the baseball season longs, and you, you love the, the 100 wins thing.
25:08
Um, and- Yeah, tell everyone about the wins bet we made. So we discover this bet, the world's greatest bet. Yeah. Actually, we're, we're at the M. We're at the M. And- What was, and what was it, uh, specifically?
25:18
It was how many teams? Well, no. No. Will any team. Will, will any team lose 100 plus games? And so- This was a couple years ago... it was a couple years. And- Yeah...
25:27
the, the season wins, there were, like, three teams that were favored to, like, lose over 100 games, but what happened is the odd makers in that case had looked at what the, the, the last five years had been, and it had been close to 50/50, and it was just insane.
25:40
Like, the, like, I was like, like, and so we're having Todd bet it on his account, and it, like, goes from, like, minus, from memory, like, -140 to [laughs] -170- Yeah, minus-... -190. Hit it.
25:49
Hit, it, it's like Die Hard, hit it again. Um, I don't know if we have this graphic available to us, guys, but we ran it, like, last week.
25:56
If not, I'll, I'll just talk, but we, we, I actually went through, back over a decade, and saw how many teams had 100-plus losses and how many teams had 100-plus wins.
26:05
And if you go back to, uh, 2013, there was only two teams that had over 100 losses, right? Parity. 100 more. Teams are in the middle. And there were no teams that had 100 wins, right?
26:15
2014, neither wins or losses had 100. 2015, there was only one team that had 100 wins, Cardinals, none with 100 losses. 2016, it was one and one.
26:25
2017, it was three teams with 100-plus wins, no loss, no teams with 100 losses. And then starting in 2018, the chasm of the haves and the have-nots occurred, right?
26:35
Because you can spend as much money as you want or as little as you want. Like, Devontae Adams might be going to the Dodgers. I'm holding out for it. [laughs] In 2018, it was three and three. 2019, it was four and four.
26:47
2020 was a strike year. It was only 60. Actually, not a strike year, but the, uh, pandemic year. There was no, uh, it was only 60 game seasons. 2021, three and four, talking about wins and losses, 100-plus.
26:58
2022, four and four. 2023, three and four. And last year, interestingly, no 100 win teams. There it is on the screen. Thank you, guys. Uh, three with 100-plus losses, including the White Sox with a 121 on the board.
27:16
You know, they said Hack Wilson's RBI record is, like, the most unbreakable in baseball, where- Is, is it Hack Wilson or Hank Greenberg? I thought it was Hack Wilson. You might be right.
27:24
It could, like, 190, but I tell you, this White Sox 121 loss season, that's gonna be a tough record to break. That's gonna be tough, even for them. Um, most RBI in a season, by the way, is Hack Wilson. You are correct.
27:35
Where did I get, where did I get Hank Greenberg from? Could be modern era. Oh, Greenberg was third. It was Hank Wilson, Lou Gehrig, Hank Greenberg, 191, 185, 184.
27:44
I was just trying to add somebody to the leaflet is what I was trying to do. Anyway, getting back to the point on this. Where was the point?
27:49
Oh, the point was your question about who do I think wins more, d- does, who's the favorite? White Sox, 100 losses. Yeah. Dodgers, 100 wins.
27:56
I just, I do think the Dodgers at some point may just say to themselves, "There's no incentive in doing this." Yeah, the Golden State thing, like, when they- Right...
28:06
lost them- cost themselves the title by chasing 72 wins. It's- You think that cost them the title? Didn't help. Can't be sure. I mean, they were up, they were up three to one in the championship.
28:14
So, so, so, so they were right there- Yeah... like our tennis guy that blew it- Oh... you know, up 40-love. Benjamin Bonzi you're referring to yesterday? Yeah, Bonsai. We got bonsaied- Yeah... by Ben, by Bonzi.
28:26
By the way, that game seven against the Cavaliers, people forget this. People remember, oh, the Golden State Warriors were up three games to one against the Cavs and then famously blew that lead. Mm-hmm.
28:34
In, in game seven was the iconic LeBron block of Igoudala's shot. The Warriors, the 73-win Warriors, went scoreless the last 4:40 of that game seven. Crazy. That's what it took. Yes. Now, the White Sox- Yeah...
28:48
obviously are supposed to lose 109 games, and the Dodgers are only supposed to win 104 and a half, so the White Sox probably should be close to a, you know, minus 220 type of figure.
28:56
Yeah, well, so, so it's even lined that way, but I'm saying even- Yeah... on top of that. All right, but why season wins? What is it about season wins you love so much?
29:04
Because if you're right on your handicap and everything breaks out close to what's expected, you win. All right?
29:11
Because any one game, any one unlucky bounce of the ball doesn't matter because it's gonna take a lot to defeat your, your accurate handicap. I also like the bias. I love unders, all right?
29:22
So what happens, I did the, just did baseball seasons, and this happens in every sport, where if you take the average, the cumulative average of, of the, the line, the average line being, um, offered to the bettor, it's, you would think, well, they play 162 games, so it'll be 81.
29:37
No. It's never 81. It's always above 81. Now, the, it's 81.34, the average. Yeah.
29:43
That sounds trivial, but if you break this out, warning, little math, it's like if, if you randomly walk up to a sportsbook and say, "I wanna bet over," you're laying -117.
29:52
If you're betting under, you're laying -103, is the way it works out. You're, you're now aggregating my, my yearly baseball manifestos, everything that I used to say about this. Hmm.
30:00
You can overcome ba- the reason that baseball season win totals are great is if, like I s- like you said, if your handicap is good, you can overcome negative variance.
30:08
You can overcome a bad month, whereas in football, especially college football, you have a bad couple weeks, you might be toast, right? With your, with your season win total. You could have Louisiana Tech- Yeah...
30:17
over, and then they lose on a Hail Mary to Jacksonville State- For instance... and they miss an 18-yard field goal to win a game, and they win five instead of seven, and they don't get to six wins.
30:26
Just as a random possibility of an example. Um, the, but with the, what you were saying, other, 'cause people, when they get into averages, they go, "What do you mean 81 point?"
30:34
The, the way I used to say it was, so if you take 30 baseball clubs, right? Um, so what is that? F- 15 times 162, so it's two- The wins, yeah. Yeah, so what is that? Um, uh,
30:46
2,440 baseball games or something like that, right? Mm-hmm....
30:50
possible wins that exist in baseball, and if you added up all the season win totals, depending on the book, sometimes it will be, you know, 10 games over that number.
31:01
If you go to a different book, sometimes it's 30 or 40 games over the number. Exactly. Yeah. This is without shopping. That's right. This is just a consensus number.
31:07
So imagine how well you're gonna do if you start cherry-picking high numbers at rogue numbers, and pretty much I'm, it, it, it, I can make the case you have to bet them.
31:20
Whenever you see a number that's really high, I'll give you an example. So the Pirates are up to 77.
31:24
I don't like that they're up to 77 in a sharp book like Circa, but, like, big picture, this is almost like Alan Boston 101 who famously would say things like, "Hey, this team's never been in the top 20.
31:34
They can't be the 10th best team in the country." The Pirates are always lousy. I don't care how good the rookie pitchers are gonna be this year, the Pirates are not a 500 team, so it's 77.
31:43
If you can put me down as an official play, we gotta play under 77. Under 77 on the Buccos. Yeah. That was Joe, Joe Peta was on that as well the other day. Smart man, that Joe Peta. He is a smart man.
31:51
By the way, do you love these, uh, Circa alternates?
31:54
Yeah, so anyone who's not following it, um, Accolades Drew Dincic famously came out and talked about playing the, the NFL alternative totals where you can get, um, shaved, uh, take a haircut and take one game worse, but get, like, plus 220 on your bet, and he was absolutely correct.
32:10
So what Circa's doing is they're giving you six extra games in each direction. So if a baseball team is supposed to win 81 and a half games, they'll deal it at 87 and a half. Mm-hmm.
32:18
And of course, then they'll take it down to 75 and a half, and so I've been...
32:22
It's fascinating 'cause if you just run a binomial distribution, like, if you, like, say, a 500 team like, you know, the Reds or Tampa Bay, and you flip a coin 162 times, it turns out you want the extra six games.
32:34
But now here's the problem. That assumes the team's playing an equivalent opponent, that they are anchored correctly, they're lined correctly, and they have no injuries, no changes.
32:44
So it's, it gets very complicated 'cause teams do go through changes. Look at the White Sox and how bad they got- Yeah... last year. By the way, we didn't even establish your street cred.
32:52
You did really well on a season wins contest last week, right? Yeah, so I finished second in the Westgate season win contest, and I've actually, you know, cashed three times in that contest.
33:01
So, um, went, um, I think I had 24 and 8 in that contest, and 25 and 7. Best record ever in that contest beat me. I thought I was gonna win, so I got second, but I've always historically done very well in that contest.
33:15
30 teams. I thought you went 23 and 7, and somebody beat you with 24 and 6. Uh- Something like that. Well, there's 32 in the NFL. Oh, we were talking NFL. Yeah. Oh, I thought you did baseball.
33:23
I, baseball, I was talking about the, yeah, no, I know. I, I've, I've, for the season win contest, NFL. NFL. NFL. Gotcha. Okay. Yes.
33:29
Uh, more with Steve Fezzik, including, again, the thin margin between being a losing bettor and a winning bettor. That's next, right here on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:40
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa.
33:57
It's Gil Alexander, Steve Fezzik hanging out with us on Fezzik Fridays here on the show. Uh, before we get back to Fezz, we get tweets at Betting The Book. Actually, we get texts. Lou Finicaro, Gamble Lou. Sweet Lou.
34:09
Sweet Lou. Sweet Lou Whitaker. Sweet Lou Finicaro. He says, "No sleeveless T-shirt for Fezz? What has this world come to?" That got banned, didn't it? Okay, you don't have to do that. It's there. Okay.
34:20
[laughs] The num- the Numbers Guys, via Twitter. [laughs] "Regarding Fezz declaring victory before the finish, I'm reminded of the g- old golf adage, 'Keep your mouth off my ball.'" [laughs] Okay.
34:31
Margin Call, "Love watching you guys. Market in the dumps. Need a good pick for the weekend." All right.
34:38
Um, why don't we do our G-Bank Best Bets of the Day then, since you want, need a good pick, and see what, uh, see what Fezzik can offer us after that as well. It's time for G-Bank, the official bank of VSiN.
34:47
All of our best bets, every show, every host, every sport.
34:51
We recap at the end of every show, and by the way, that free vsin.com package, vsin.com/picks, every host, every guest, every, uh, every sport, it's all on there as well.
35:02
And so some of these guys, by the way, some of our picks, they don't appear on shows during the week, so it's just hundreds of picks available to you across the sports betting landscape.
35:10
As far as today's show, I've got four tennis plays, one on the ladies' side. Hailey Baptiste going up against Danielle freaking Collins, plus 136 on Hailey Baptiste.
35:20
On the men's side, Colton Smith out of the University of Arizona, plus 207 versus Alex Michelsen. Hopefully, these courts do not appeal to Michelsen, who, uh, typically likes a s- a, uh, faster hard court.
35:32
Lorenzo Musetti, plus 114 against Roman Safiullin, and Zizou Bergs, I got him at a worse number than you can get him at this morning, minus 115 versus Alexei Popyrin.
35:42
And Steve Fezzik coincidentally has some of those same tennis picks. Hmm, how'd that happen? You know, so Gilly gets upset when I don't bet his tennis. He's like, "Stevie, how can you not play in them?"
35:48
And then when you do- And then, and then when I send them out to someone to, like, to, "What are you doing?" Why are you sending them out? [laughs] "Why are you, why are you routing my picks around?"
35:55
[laughs] Jordan Sherwood on UFC 313. He's on Ignacio Bahamondes, minus 125. Rafael Fiziev, minus 166, uh, minus 162, pardon me, in the co-main.
36:05
Uh, Fiziev, who got blasted by Gaethje last time, is not quite as big of a favorite this time, but, uh, Jordan is still on him here.
36:12
And then Alex Morono and Carlos Leal Miranda under two and a half rounds as his third UFC 313 pick this weekend.
36:20
Stevie, Stevie's got some, uh, he's got the Pirates under win, uh, Pirates under season win, pardon me, at 77. Joe Peta agrees. Um, and you have a couple college hoops that you like here as well.
36:31
Yeah, let's, let's win a bunch before lunch. Let's go Missouri Valley Conference, 10:00 AM start time here locally Pacific, and we're gonna go 846 Southern Illinois Drake. Love the Drake.
36:42
Gonna go under the 127 and a half, and it's funny, all day yesterday, I was saying every Missouri Valley Arch Madness game goes under.
36:50
And, but Indiana State, that one's gonna go over because, like, the happy action fun time, they love to go, uh, fast-paced. So we're gonna stick with the under theme. I know Will Hill is on this as well.
37:01
And, uh, game 839, South Florida, Memphis over 151 and a half.
37:05
You know, I watch a lot of basketball, so this time of year, and the only Memphis games that go under are games [laughs] where they, they, like, they're shooting 20% from three. Yeah.
37:14
As long as they shoot 30%, so much pace in Memphis games over the 151 and a half. I'm definitely jumping on the, uh, the, uh, Southern Illinois Drake game with you, for sure. Uh, under 127 and a half this morning.
37:25
Then Chris Felica, my goodness, a plethora, a cornucopia of picks from Felica. Uh, Aryna Sabalenka to win her quarter at Indian Wells -120. She is in action today. Illinois State in college hoops, um, pick 'em.
37:39
Boise State laying five and a half, and then VCU laying minus eight and a half. His three college basketball plays.
37:47
Uh, as far as baseball season long, he's got Cole Ragans and Tanner Bibee, both of them to lead the major leagues in strikeouts.
37:52
Ragans at 22 to1, Bibee at 80 to1, and he's got the Dodgers to be the number one seed in the National League at minus 165. That looks like a Fez aggregation play. [laughs] Oh, god. That looks very familiar to me. Stolen.
38:05
Stolen. [laughs] Uh, and then, uh, Chris Felica in terms of soccer, uh, Luton Town under a half, a team total under a half a goal, meaning he believes they will go scoreless at Burnley.
38:16
Northampton, he believes they will go scoreless at Leyton Orient. And then Villarreal also under team total, half a goal at Valencia. Uh, Chris Felica, three pack of soccer plays as well.
38:30
He, uh, he had a couple horse racing ones as well, but w- actually he only had a, he had a stay away in horse racing. Uh, let me, uh, make sure that I get that right 'cause I wanna, uh, be thorough.
38:40
But in the, uh, in the Florida Oaks, he said stay away from the favorite, the number nine horse, Nitrogen. And in the Tampa Derby, he does like the seven horse, Patch Adams.
38:51
All of that, your G Bank Best Bets of the Day courtesy of G Bank, the official bank of VSiN. And don't forget, with G Bank, they're upping the ante with up to a $750 bonus for new G Bank Visa signature card customers.
39:02
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39:20
That's vsin.com/gbank. Subject to credit approval. Terms and conditions apply. Uh, James Sod on Twitter asking me who or what matches I got lined up at Indian Wells tonight that I will be there for.
39:31
Uh, not gonna watch Iga. Iga's playing this afternoon. I will have Medvedev and, uh, Zheng Qinwen tonight on the schedule. I saw Iga last time I was there, and I was like 10 feet away from her and was fanboying out.
39:41
Are you gonna attempt to courtside this, the Pass Pro live while you're there? Uh, why not, right? Yeah, of course. Sure.
39:46
I mean, hey, Jason Weingarten's got, like, 3:00 AM radios in his car [laughs] over- Yeah, of course. But then the girlfriend is like, "Why are you on your phone?" Right, so there's that. Jason Weingarten's girlfriend?
39:55
No, no, I'm talking about my- Oh. [laughs] Yeah, I don't know about Jason. Yeah. [laughs] Jason might too. Um, okay, before we go, I was teasing this.
40:01
The thin line between, between being a losing bettor and a winning bettor. Yes. And
40:08
little experiment you can do over the rest of your life, record how you'll do with an extra one point on all your wagers, each and every wager, college basketball and football, but- Oh, that's interesting...
40:19
but especially basketball. So here's the thing. Everyone says, "I lost because I'm betting the wrong teams." All right? Um, and the truth is, no, you lost because you didn't get a good enough number.
40:29
So if you just add one extra point to every bet that you make, you will turn a horrible losing, lifetime losing, you know, Arch Leister type of bettor- Arch Leister... maybe not Arch Leister.
40:42
[laughs] But anybody else, into a winning bettor. That is the margin. It, it's so thin, and every half point is worth, like, eight cents, and you're paying 10 cents a vig.
40:50
So if you get an extra game, an extra point on every bet, it's like you're, you're, you're skewing it towards your favor for, by six cents instead of 10 cents against you. Again, a lot of math.
41:00
But, uh, and that's why my pet peeve, and I'm, I'm handing out fines left and right, and I fine myself. I do that all the time. You're, you're, yeah, we do that on the group chat, too. A lot of fines are levied.
41:09
Y- It, it doesn't do me any good to say, "Hey, in pocket I got minus seven and a half, and the line is minus nine."
41:14
All that's relevant, and so I brought it up, like, uh, in our graphic, like a Memphis, South Florida, w- I sent it in this morning at a different number. But all that matters is the current.
41:22
Now, the current number's 151 and a half here, so that's what we should grade me at, and we should grade everyone at that.
41:28
It's like you come on a show and you give out a play, it's gotta be what the number that's readily available now, not what it was when you may or may not have bet it and it's in pocket. Yeah.
41:38
I- It's funny how, you know, sometimes people say things in a certain way and it lands in a certain way, and somehow it, it, it's emblazoned in your brain. I don't know if you even know this.
41:47
One time you were, you said in the chat, not that I didn't know this, but the way you said it, like, left an impression, which is, "If you don't think a point matters, live through these bets."
41:56
So let's, let's just say we have a first half at 78 and a half, and somebody else on the chat took a 79 and a half. Live through it. You know how much that point means when you're living through it.
42:06
Last night, overtime, Lakers- Yeah... you know, open up for a blink at four and a half, you know, against New York, then it comes down to three and a half, and three, and two and a half. It goes to overtime.
42:15
Fiddles in the middle, lands four. Almost everybody loses that took the dog on the Knicks, they had the right side. Yeah. But somebody won plus four and a half that's listening that's like, "Those guys are nothing.
42:24
I'm like the king. I should be on this show. [laughs] I, I, I got the plus four and a half." But you know what, what you've, you know, people famously say, uh, "Don't bet teams, bet numbers."
42:33
This is, what, what you've just outlined is a different way of saying that, right? What they, it's very creative, which is if you're logging all your bets in the next column, do it as if you had one extra point.
42:43
One crummy extra point. And see the difference. Or one, or one fewer, one less, right? Or whatever. Yeah. Oh, you'll get crushed. You'll get crushed.
42:48
The best bettors in the world, and, and, and like I, and I talk to Will about this all the time, it's, and I do it too. It's really hard. Every sharp is on plus 23. Oh, yeah.
42:57
The dog on plus 23, and it drops to 21, and it's like, eh, all, all the sharp money plus 21. You look at all the spreadsheet breakdowns, it's like, like, no. No, it's over. No sharp- It's over...
43:06
no sharp is playing plus 21 and a half. The sharp's playing plus 23 and maybe plus 22 and a half. You're getting the last bite of the poison apple at that point. Yeah.
43:13
You, I mean, there are times in football season, though, I re- I remember this distinctly about you, where, you know, a seven will be sitting out there, well, not a, let's, let's not use a key number.
43:20
But let's say it goes from, you know, uh, five and a half to four and a half, whatever, and then people are still giving out the four and a half at the end of the week 'cause they still, I m- the plus four and a half 'cause they still like it.
43:31
You even object to that, though. Yeah, but in football, because the numbers are worth, five is such a dead number. Yeah. I, I, I'm, I don't love it. It's okay. Good.
43:38
But- I just wanna make sure you don't go crazy about that... yeah, right. But, but, but I, I still think it, it, it's a slippery slope. Yeah. Yes.
43:43
I think, I think the exercise is such a helpful one, what you just described, and what it does is illustrate, again, you know, the, the thin line between being great and being terrible.
43:55
And let me give one tip, one pro tip. No one has ever spoken about this. This is really important. Some people say, "I bet 1% of bankroll, 2% of bankroll on my plays."
44:02
Let's say you like an underdog plus six and a half college basketball, and it's painted six and a half. Everyone has six and a half. You should bet less.
44:09
Now let's say it's six and a half at half the places and seven at the other half, or it's six at half the places, six and a half at all the other places. Ooh. Bet more. You know why?
44:17
'Cause you're essentially, basically, not to bore you with the math, you're laying minus 106 essentially, because you're getting help from that situation.
44:25
Five-second season win total, a shout-out to, what's the gentleman's name? Oh, s- so David Kaufman, old guy. That's it. That's all you gotta- Name a player wins every year. David Kaufman, shout out. Story's next.
44:34
Money moves. Enjoy from VSiN, these sports bet-
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