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Mar 9, 2026
A Numbers Game | March 9, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | March 9, 2026 | Hour 2
00:00
47:59
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
0:12
VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM Channel 158. This show brought to you by Prophet X, and we are very proud that this show is brought to you by Prophet X.
0:23
Um, Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin in the house. You okay, man? Oh, I'm great. Okay. You still- Fantastic... posing for the Prophet X thing still? That your- Nope, nope, nope, not the, not an appropriate time.
0:33
Maybe next segment. Okay. [laughs] We get tweet speed with Jonathan Call, "I got a little pizza money on Georgia Southern." He didn't get them at 300 to 1, but he got 150 to 1. Ah, that's not bad.
0:43
He put 10, he put 10 United States dollars on it, I believe. Man. You know, he did. You can't afford any pizza like, uh, with 10 bucks anymore. Let's go Georgia Southern. Uh- Maybe a slice, not in Vegas. Let's see.
0:57
This is from Oh Montreal Max letting us know that ESPN's hiring six former Washington Post sports reporters for its investigative enterprise and digital journalism unit after the sports department was blown out at WaPo.
1:11
Matthew Steinhart @bigstonearthe says, "Yo, is it me or does Gil's tennis $2 dogs, uh, two, plus-200 or higher picks seem to hit at a higher rate? Small sample size, incorrect price, handicapping, or something else?
1:23
Is it something you track or small sample size?" Oh, I track 'em, and they hit at a very high rate. Yeah. Um, I just, I have confidence in my tennis numbers over it.
1:33
Do they hit at a higher rate than what though, I guess, is what you're asking. Like, at a, a higher rate than a plus-110 or a plus-120? I think that's what he's asking, yeah. I think that's what you're asking.
1:42
Um, I don't know if I've specifically looked at that necessarily, but they do hit at a, they do hit at a very, uh, profitable rate, and, um, that's the beauty of it. I know what he's getting at, though. Yeah.
1:55
There's the, uh, there, there's something... I, I feel the same way sitting next to Gil for all these years. It's been like, I... Women at like plus-242 or better, for whatever reason, hit at a very high clip.
2:04
[laughs] Yeah, man. I don't know. You probably feel the same way in golf, that you have a, that you have a, uh, an edge. Yeah, no, no, I know what he's saying. It's weird though. Yeah.
2:14
I feel like you do have more success with those lo- with, with some of the longer odd, uh, a- and usually women's players, too. Well, yeah. That's true. Because I don't usually play the men's- Dogs, yeah, yeah...
2:27
dogs of that size very often. Um, Matthew Steinhart, thank you for noticing. I appreciate it.
2:32
Shooter McGamblin, "I think it's interesting that in the NIL era, the gap between the haves and have-nots seems to have grown in college basketball, but shrunk in college football." Interesting.
2:42
Any thoughts why and if that persists? I don't know. We'd have, we'd need more of a sample size, but that's an interesting comment, for sure. ATL Dorn, "What a week for Eagle Nation.
2:51
From an alum, thanks for highlighting Georgia Southern's amazing run.
2:54
Fun facts, they've made 66 threes, 40% so far, and if they win tonight, they'll be the first D1 team to win six games in six nights, and not even this homer pa- and, and no even this homer passed on 300-1?"
3:06
I guess you pass, uh, I get what you're saying. You did pass on it or you did not pass on the 300-1? Again, read the, uh, the little typo there in your, uh, in your tweet.
3:15
And Michael Mana- Michael Manassano lets us know that the highest rated team ever at Kenpom, the 1999 Duke Blue Devils, plus 43.01, and they did not win the title. Hmm. Points it out.
3:26
So no guarantee that a top-rated, even historically in Kenpom, will get you eventually to the promised land. Ladies and gentlemen, always a pleasure to have this man back. It's his first appearance on the show this year.
3:36
Am I correct in that? Uh, he was on a few weeks ago with us- Oh... when, when you were out. When I was out- Yep, yep... he was here. So it's not his first appearance. It's his first appearance with me.
3:43
Paul Spohrer, ladies and gentlemen. You can follow him on Twitter at Spohrer. He works at FanGraphs. He joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. What's up, Paulie? How you doing, man? Morning, Gil. Hey.
3:52
Hey, Kelly. How's it going, guys? How you doing? Puer- Puerto Rico on top, Houston Oilers on the chest. Is that what's going on here? Look at that. It's correct. Wow. Uh- Old school Oilers.
4:01
The Oilers just, uniforms- So good... sweatshirts, anythings, are so good. So good. Are you calling- So, so good. Let's start with Puerto Rico.
4:08
Are you calling your shot in any way for the World Baseball Classic, or you just like the, uh, hat? Both. I mean, uh, they're awesome. Uh, I'm actually going to Houston for the quarterfinal next week.
4:16
I'd like to see them facing the United States, and I can just take both hats and switch 'em on and off depending on who's winning. [laughs] Depending on who's winning. Don King style. That's great. All right.
4:27
It's America for both, right? Yeah. So it's fine. My Korea to win Pool C ain't happening. 8-6 they lose to Japan Saturday morning, and I think they beat, then they got beat by China today. They advanced, though.
4:37
Did they advance this morning? Did they get through? Yeah, they advanced. They advanced. It, it was precarious, though- Yeah...
4:41
because they, I mean, they were leading the whole way through, but run differential was, was the decider. Oof.
4:46
And like every time Australia scored a run, like, someone had a chart, a fan had a chart that showed how each team would, would go based on the score, and it was down to the very end there that if it, Australia had gotten one more run, they would've advanced and kicked Korea out, even though Korea had the game handily won.
5:03
Yeah. They were up on Japan three to nothing early Saturday morning. Yeah. I was like, "Oh, this is gonna happen. This is gonna happen." And then that's it. They had 'em. Not to be.
5:10
I mean, they didn't have 'em, but- Yeah... like, they had a lead. They had 'em. They, they didn't have 'em. They, that's way too early to say they had 'em, but- That's right... they had a lead and they blew it.
5:17
The plus 850 does not cash. Okay, let's get to Major League Baseball. Let us start with divisions. Let's go division by division, and I'm just curious your thoughts on each from a betting standpoint.
5:27
Let us start with the, [clears throat] pardon me, with the AL East, where it is always a logjam, at least in recent history. Yankees and Blue Jays were the ultimate logjam last year, finished tied.
5:38
Blue Jays end up winning the division on the tiebreaker. Uh, 94 wins I believe they both had last year. So it's Yankees, it's Blue Jays. I think that's right.
5:46
Some people believe the Red Sox are up there as well, at least the market certainly does in terms of season win totals. Yankees are 90 and a half, Jays 88 and a half, Red Sox 87 and a half.
5:55
The Birds, the O's, a lot of people expect them to bounce back this year at 85 and a half. And then the Rays As far as last place teams in a market go, not that last place-ish, right? Pretty good still themselves. Yeah.
6:06
At 77 and a half. There you see the division odds, you see the league odds, you see the World Series odds. Is there anything there that you like?
6:14
I mean, the thing of it is when you're looking at, at division leader, and maybe it's a novice move on my part, but I'm never gonna take the favorite.
6:22
Like, I'm just not gonna put six months down for a favorite and just kind of wait to lose, is what it feels like, right? [laughs] I mean, except maybe the Dodgers. But, uh, I just, I'm looking for something else, right?
6:32
'Cause you got the whole six months ahead of you. You mentioned the Rays. They're not my official pick, but at that price point, a, a, like a half unit on them I think makes sense. They're always live.
6:41
They're always live. They're moving back to the Trop. I think their pitching'll get better, and, and they're the Rays.
6:47
But my pick is the O's, and I am looking at, like, kind of O's, Red Sox, kind of coming a cut down from Yankees, Jays, not 'cause they're bad, but because of how much this division is jumbled like you mentioned, and how much of a battle it is.
7:00
Again, you just can't get me wanting to take the favorites there. So I will lean toward the O's. I love what they did with their pitching. This time last year I was on this show killing them for their brutal off-season.
7:11
They did nothing. They didn't go after Burns, they didn't get pitching, and they melted. Well, this year they did a lot better. They had Trevor Rogers break out under their watch, and then they went and added pitching.
7:21
They went and added Pete Alonso. I think the O's are the team to go for here in the East. Plus 425 on the Baltimore Orioles to win the American League East. Let's go to the American League Central. Your Tigers, Paulie.
7:34
Yep. Your Tigers lead the way. Uh, but a lot of people love the Royals this year. I'm down on the Guardians, though I was last year and they just absolutely destroyed me. Twins, White Sox rounding out the bottom.
7:45
Is there a bet here? Again, you know I love my Tigers. I do think they are the class of that division. Royals are pretty solid. Kind of interested to see what happens with them bringing in the fences.
7:56
But I'm gonna go with the Guard Dogs, you know? Oh, man. They are annoying. You, you understand that first and foremost.
8:01
But [laughs] because they get good numbers and they're usually in the mix, they're like Rays, uh, of the Central, right?
8:09
I mean, obviously they don't do it in the same way, but they run the shoestring budget where they always have talent, and you kind of dismiss them, and then you look up and like, okay, they're, they're still pretty good, right?
8:18
Like, one of the bigger stories around them right now is the loss of Clase. But they don't really feel that that much, at least not in his role in the ninth inning. Cade Smith is arguably better.
8:28
Obviously any time you take a guy like Clase out, that's gonna ding your, your bullpen. You have to backfill him. But that was their biggest strength.
8:36
So of all the, the, you know, ways that you could've lost somebody in a big role, that was the one they could afford. I still hate how they don't spend any money.
8:46
Like, they are a key free agent or, or two away from, I think, being the class of the division. But they choose to sit on their hands.
8:52
I still think they have a lot of talent, though, and they have a lot of in-house talent. A guy like Chase DeLauter could come up this year and dominate for them.
8:57
So if I'm gonna go anywhere in the Central, and this one's a lot softer than the O's one, it would be the Guards.
9:02
I think it is gonna be Tigers, Royals, but I'm probably laying off the Central in general, if not, little bit on the Guards.
9:08
And then it's too early for the White Sox, but I told you last year to watch them, and I think they took a step forward, and I think they take another step this year to where they're kind of a, a, um, an annoying team down the stretch that's ruining other people's seasons.
9:21
Not quite ready to even throw, like, a quarter unit on the White Sox yet, but they're coming, and when we see what they do this year, I think next year they'll be the fun team at, like, plus 700 or something like that.
9:32
So not, not quite yet on the White Sox. Okay. So lukewarm Guardians play. Their strong- Yeah... Orioles play in the AL East. AL West I'm really curious to hear.
9:40
Seattle obviously the team that most feel will win this division. I'm not so sure. Sure. I lo- I love the Rangers. I think the Athletics will be, uh, much improved. Don't think they're gonna win the division.
9:51
I'm curious where you stand. Have a hard time getting fully on the A's with the pitching there. Um, they don't have great pitching, and it's hard to pitch there. Love the offense. Think it's gonna be really interesting.
10:02
It took a while for the park to kind of start playing.
10:05
I think, uh, California was even unseasonably cool in that Sacramento area until late in the season, and then things started to go absolutely bonkers with the offense there.
10:14
But again, the pitching's really tough for them to overcome. I gotta go with what I've termed the horror movie villain, which is the Houston Astros. You can't kill them.
10:23
Every time you think, "Okay, well, you know, uh, these guys are gone. It's time to kind of restart. Okay, Kyle Tucker's traded away. Okay, they're gonna let Framber Valdez.
10:31
We're gonna start turning the page to the next, you know, kind of rebuild." No, they don't. They actually went in this year, made a lot of interesting moves to stay competitive, and I think they're right there.
10:41
I do think the M's are definitely the class, and they're, they're my favorite without a doubt. I think they're a World Series favorite, in fact, the, for the M's.
10:48
But if I'm going on the division, again, I don't go for the faves. Give me this A- Astros team that looks so much better on paper than we thought they were going to coming into the year. Getting Tatsuya Imai.
10:58
I thought Mike Burroughs from the Pirates and the Ryan Weiss pickup from the KBO really lengthened their rotation, uh, behind Hunter Brown.
11:06
Christian Javier's gonna be really important for them coming off of, uh, injury for a full season. The offense is very top-heavy and, and, and old.
11:14
Even though I, I know, uh, Alvarez is on the right side of 30, his legs certainly aren't. So even, like, the best portion of their offense is a bit old, but still good. Altuve, Alvarez, Paredes, Correa, Walker, not bad.
11:25
I'll go Astros in the ALS. That's what I get for leaving out the Astros in the preamble. Paul going Astros.
11:31
We'll do the NL on the other side, and I'll get some season-long thoughts in terms of some markets and some awards, thoughts from Paul as well. Paul Spohn, everybody, from FanGraphs, @Spohn on Twitter.
11:43
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] Let me get your attention real quick, podcast listeners.
11:54
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12:00
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12:26
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13:23
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on a numbers game, live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Billett.
13:38
Hey, don't forget, this show brought to you by Prophet X, once again. And, uh, here's the deal, Kelly. Once again, uh, you see your gentleman on the screen there. A numbers game brought to you by Prophet X.
13:49
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14:17
VSiNMM, start winning King of March only on Prophet X. That a, that seems like a really good deal. Like a really good deal. Dude, we'll say it again here on the show. [laughs] I promise you.
14:29
But I wanna just get into the details again. 10 plays, win 10,000. Yeah. Do they say anywhere you wanna go? Is that what they said? That's what it said. That's what it said. It's kinda open-ended.
14:38
Hey, uh, you know, we talked a lot about this last week. You think, uh, you think Prophet, uh, you think they need a jingle? Think we can work on a jingle for 'em? Oh, I'd love to.
14:46
[laughs] Pitch a, pitch Prophet X a jingle for them? [laughs] I'd love to. DGen_SouthernGen on Twitter, "Always a fan of hearing my alma mater on your show, fellas. Plenty of room on the bandwagon for you guys.
14:57
Here's a picture of Gus and I back in 2011, back when I still had hair and Gus was still showing up to house parties in Burkhalter. If you know, you know." That's a Georgia Southern guy.
15:06
Georgia Southern getting a lot of play on the show today. Yeah. Wow, wow. As they should. As they should. 300 to one. A lot of representation from the tweeters. I like it.
15:12
Montreal Max, "Nice hearing you had a great time again at Indian Wells, and after already having my standard soft spot for Bencic play-
15:20
playing, I just now hit a strong- I hit it stronger at minus 110 after Gil's release." Aaron Bender was driving and said, "Oh no, Gil's playing volleys nets again." That was, uh, over the weekend. "And against Ostapenko.
15:31
Have you tracked your record on Ka-tie? Love your tennis, but volley nets, no, baby, no." Oh, we used to hit huge on volley nets dogs. Back to the other one of, like, $2 dogs or greater. She used to be our girl.
15:43
Not so much this week. What did, uh, what did Ostapenko beat her? Like, 7-6, 6-4, I believe. Jesse Welch, "Geez, no triumphant return for Spohrer, huh?"
15:52
Well, 'cause apparently I learned that Spohrer was here when I was on vacation, so there is no triumphant return. He's already had his triumphant return. Mm-hmm. Paul Spohrer joins us now, triumphant or not.
15:59
[laughs] Back on the show right now. You can follow him on Twitter @Spohrer. Paul, tell everybody what the other thing you do is besides FanGraphs, 'cause we always talk about it off-air. OTP?
16:08
O-OTP, Out of the Park Baseball. Yeah. It's a video game we're releasing actually this week. Uh, uh, Ou- Out of the Park Baseball 27. Uh, we have a
16:17
team mode called Perfect Team, a game mode called Perfect Team, where you collect, uh, basically virtual cards from players across the entire history of baseball, build your team, and go up against everyone else.
16:27
It sims against other real managers. So you know, we could all have a team in the league with guys like Josh Gibson, Mike Trout, Bob Gibson.
16:35
You know, you can run the gamut in history, and I'm the one who creates all the cards for it.
16:40
So I'm creating the game pieces that everyone plays with in Perfect Team, and like I said, we release this week, so it's been a pretty hectic week so far here, uh, with baseball popping off and Out of the Park Baseball coming out in no time.
16:52
Out of the Park Baseball. Yeah. Short change the of. Right. A- a- and Paul, how many years now h- have you guys done the game? Um, well this is, I'm, I'm, my fourth year here in 27. The, it counts.
17:03
Um, it happens to be off by a year. You know, usually baseball games match the year. Like MLB The Show 26- Mm... is coming out, and then the fall games are kind of a year ahead.
17:11
Technically, we're, quote-unquote, a year ahead, but that's just 'cause it's the count. This is the 27th iteration. 'Cause people say, "Why do you do, why do you do that even though it's 2026?"
17:20
I'm like, " 'Cause we're not matching the year." [laughs] They just so happen to be somewhat aligned with the year to make it look like it's a fall game, but it's the 27th iteration of Out of the Park Baseball. Yeah.
17:30
Let's go to the National League. National League East. Yeah. Top heavy as always with the f- with the Mets, the Phillies, the Braves. Um, Washington, not created like the others, by the way, should be pointed out.
17:42
Uh, is this the year of the Mets? A lot of people seem to think so. What do you think? Sure. [laughs] I mean- Wow. Take that, Metro- They made the playoffs last year-... politician fans... for crying out loud.
17:54
[laughs] What is going on? Why are the Braves still plus 225? Are they just not updating after the news? I, I, you couldn't, you couldn't pay me to take that. That's insane.
18:04
With all the players that they've lost already, a- absolutely no way. So they're off the board completely, and then you're looking at two basic favorites there with the Mets and Phillies.
18:11
So I got a very soft lean here, and I would just take a long shot on the Marlins, because I actually... I- it is, you know- Quarter play, half play type, uh, half unit type play. You don't wanna get silly here.
18:21
But I just don't have a big lean. I can't trust the Mets after what they did last year. I do like the Phillies, but they're not at a good enough number.
18:28
And like I said, they have not moved the Braves number up enough to make it enticing at all with all the injuries. The Marlins are interesting, though.
18:34
They, they, you know, they're gonna have Sandy back all year, Yuri Perez back all year. They're starting to put together something of an offense. And when you have good pitching, you don't need that much offense.
18:43
Are the Marlins gonna win the division? I don't think so, folks. But are they live dogs? I actually do believe that.
18:48
So this isn't just idle chat about them, but I would, I wouldn't go crazy with any sort of bet on the East at all. NL Central, Cubs, Brewers, or somebody else? Somebody else. The Reds. There you go. I like the Reds.
19:04
I like the, I liked the Reds as soon as Francona got there. I think they've had a lot of talent for the last several years, and obviously he got them to the playoffs last year.
19:12
Unfortunately they're, you know, kind of the, uh, the sacrificial lamb for the Dodgers, but they still made it. Tons of talent for this team, too. They've got the rotation. They've got the offense.
19:21
They have everything to come together and have a gigantic year. I got Tito winning this division, uh, Cincinnati Reds in the Central. Okay. West, which I assume- Pass. Yeah, I, I- Pass.
19:32
[laughs] Don't really need to get into it. I mean, it's the D- Why, why even bother? All right, let- Yeah. Let me ask it this way. Are the Rockies or Nationals gonna be the worst team in baseball? Rockies, um,
19:45
I know they got Paul DePodesta, but like when's the last time he did anything? Didn't, wasn't he terrible- Yeah... in football? It's better than what they've had though, right? That's the thing.
19:53
Their bar is so low that even, you know, Paul DePodesta on the back end of his hype machine is still easily like the best front office management that they've had. But that division is still so difficult, too.
20:05
You know, Padres, Giants, D-backs can also all be really good. The Nats, you know, I, I like some of the stuff that they've done. I like some of the talent they're putting together.
20:13
They've got a compelling offense to me. Few pitching pieces that are all right. I still think it's gonna be the Rockies.
20:19
I know some people, at least some circles I've, uh, run in, think the Cardinals are gonna be down there with them. I think that's delusional. I think they're just kind of regular bad. Like, they're not a great team.
20:29
I'm not picking them to win the division or anything, but the idea that the Cardinals are down with the dregs of the league, I, I don't know where people are getting that from.
20:38
Um- Thankfully, you know, the betting market does not agree with that, as I can see here, but I'm seeing people in baseball circles believe that, and that's wrong. I think.
20:45
For those who wanna bet a one-two exact in the West, Dodgers and who finishes second? I'm still gonna stick with the Padres. Um, also because they're so committed to winning, right?
20:55
I know things haven't really gone as well as you would hope with all the money and expenditure they, they've put into it, but they continue to stay grinding and trying. Like, they're still adding pieces.
21:05
I kinda like what they did this year at the back end of the, um, uh, of the free agent period, where they just kinda went and got a bunch of older guys. Talented guys who've done it before.
21:14
They're on the downswing, you know, Castellanos types guys like that, and they did a handful of guys like that. Just MLB-ers so that you're not calling up Johnny Two Cents from Triple-A when things happen. Hmm.
21:24
And that's what you gotta do when you're a top-heavy team, right? They've spent all that money on the big players. Well, then your depth gets, uh, taken away, especially with all the prospects they've traded.
21:32
So they've backfilled it with competent major leaguers. I like that. We saw it work last year with like Ramon Laureano, Gavin Sheets. They're going forward again this year with another handful of those guys.
21:41
So it would be Dodgers, Padres for me, um, a- as the one-two. All right. Let's close it out with an awards bet that you like. I'll leave it open-ended, any awards market, and then a stats leader bet that you like.
21:52
Let's start with awards. So awards, that's another one where you just, you're never gonna find me going for the faves. I just can't do it.
22:01
So I know Scubal has two straight Cy Youngs in the American League 'cause he's awesome. I hope he gets a third. Everyone knows I'm a Tigers fan, but you gotta jump down the board. You can't go Scubal and Crochet.
22:10
That's just a waste of your time. I'm gonna stick with the Baltimore pick, pick them to win the division. Let's go ahead and get Kyle Bradish on the board here. He's returning. Wow.
22:19
Now he's, he made his return from Tommy John last year. We got innings under our belt, and I love when a guy does that, when he can come back late in the season, kinda shake off the rust.
22:29
Yuri Perez did the same thing with, uh, with Miami, and both were actually really good, too.
22:34
But even if they had been bad, shake off the rust, get through the command and control issues of TJ, and then take off for a full year. I think Kyle Bradish is back to ace form this year, has a gigantic season.
22:45
Baltimore wins the division, and Kyle Bradish gets a Cy Young. All right. Stats leader to close. All right. Well, I'm gonna stick one more with Baltimore here. I got two on the saves.
22:56
I gotta throw Helsley in there plus 3,000, but then also Cade Smith. I think Cade Smith is arguably the best closer in baseball now that it's free and clear as his job.
23:04
He's plus 2,200, which is a little bit surprising to me on that one. So I think Cade Smith and Ryan Helsley are interesting saves guys.
23:10
I'm gonna run down a few here since we are short on time and I wanna get them all out. Brent Rooker for home runs at plus 4,500. Ooh. Uh, again, that park, his ability, I think he's got a shot to do it.
23:21
Yandy Diaz for hits, plus 4,500 as well. I know they're going back to the Trop instead of Steinbrenner Field, but he always got hits there, too. It doesn't really suppress hits. It suppresses home runs.
23:31
The turf actually helps you with hits, especially when you're a ground ball guy. Yandy needs to stay healthy.
23:35
That's why a volume thing is a little bit difficult with him, but I think the number is there to, to get you, uh, at plus 4,500. And then steals, Victor Scott.
23:43
That's a bit, pretty big long shot one, but he's an, a brilliant defender for the St. Louis Cardinals, and they're just gonna let him play. By the way, I talked about them earlier as being kind of just regular bad.
23:53
They are running out a fully homegrown team, and I think that's really, really interesting. I think Victor Scott can get something like 60, 70 steals if he plays all year and has even a 300 OBP.
24:03
Paul Spohn, everybody, @spohn. Quality performance. Thank you, Paul. Great seeing you, man. Thank you. Appreciate it. Take care, y'all. Paul Spohn, Puerto Rico hat, Houston Oilers sweatshirt.
24:14
Man comes correct every time. Mm-hmm. Country Club on the other side. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:26
Back on A Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort and Casino, downtown Las Vegas, brought to you by Prophet X. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlack. Uh, more Georgia Southern bets.
24:36
First of all, a lot of Georgia Southern alum coming out today. Yeah, for real. Um, Trip Tepper, he didn't make it pre-flop, but he did bet Georgia Southern after the first two Sun Belt Conference tournament games,
24:47
and he's saying, "Shoulda bet more," the Will Hill podcast, uh, title. He says, "Jumped in with a cup of coffee bet on them at 62 and a half to one after the first two wins."
24:56
So he's got 'em at plus 62 point, uh, excuse me, at, uh, pardon me, 62 and a half to one. Again, we've seen 150 to one. Yeah. No- nobody yet with a 300 to one. Trip's a known liar, though. That's the problem. Known liar.
25:10
[laughs] Trip is a known liar? No, just stop it. Just play with you, Trip. Stop it. Cash some tickets. Stop it. Brian Young, oh, we're getting to this.
25:18
Brian, he says, "Just catching up on A Numbers Game with Gil and Kelly. Wondering if we're gonna get a Monday morning rant from Kelly. Thought we had one on golf tournament withdrawals, but he refrained."
25:27
Oh, it's coming. I think it's coming. What do you mean? Was that not, like, was that not good enough? I mean, there's, kinda like you're talking, there's nothing you can do in these. There's nothing you can do.
25:36
I mean, more of, like, the bigger rants would just be of, like, okay. But, like, I, we all gotta learn h- lessons the hard way, right?
25:43
If, if Gil woulda asked me on Wednesday, "Hey, uh, how does Cal treat withdrawals if a guy pulls out before the tournament?" I'd be like, "I don't know, Gil." But I found that out Thursday morning- [laughs]...
25:52
with Jake Knapp. I don't know, Gil. And so I know going forward now, I guess. I like that, Kelly.
25:55
It's the, uh, Matt, Matt Brown and I were talking about, it's like, look, it's still a, I think it's still a very useful tool.
26:00
I think the pricing i- for, for especially for placement markets, I think I told you this a week ago, a week or two ago. It's, it's basically where I've started making all my top 10 and 20 bets.
26:10
It's, like, not even close, and ties pay out in full.
26:12
But you have to, now that you know something like that, you gotta work that into your pricing of how you're gonna price out, uh, and compare these top 10s and top 20s everywhere. Yep.
26:22
Um, before we get into some of the Country Club, I just wanna recap, uh, the tennis bets today, talk a little bit about your golf props from the weekend.
26:29
Uh, the NFL free agency stuff, though, I just wanted to mention this. So Rashan Gary goes to the Cowboys this morning from the Packers. Minkah Fitzpatrick goes to the Jets. Um, legal tampering begins.
26:42
You can talk openly with other teams now. Great oxymoron, legal tampering. It's happening. You know what this one, the one interesting player that seems to have come up here? Uh, Jalen Carter of the Eagles. Hmm.
26:54
Jalen Carter of the Eagles, who one would think, oh, well, you would never all- allow him to go anywhere. Problem is, the Eagles have too many players to pay, so they're trying to trade A.J. Brown.
27:02
That's the first thing, right? Right. Uh, Jordan Davis, I believe, just got an extension, if I'm not mistaken. The problem is next year
27:10
both Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell are up for long-term deals, and those guys are going to get paid, especially after what we just saw with McDuffie, the contract he just got. Yeah.
27:25
$100 million guaranteed, largest for a s- for a cornerback ever. So both Mitchell and DeJean are gonna get paid next year. And so the Eagles do have a bit of a conundrum
27:36
because Carter, they feel like, took a step back last year, uh, incrementally so, but still a step back. So they gotta make a choice somewhere.
27:43
Maybe, at lea- at least the word is, is that they're at least listening now to offers for Jalen Carter, which is a bit of a development, which I did not see coming. No, me either. Me either. Listening.
27:54
That doesn't mean he's going anywhere- Yeah... but listening to offers. Me either, and I just, I, I guess I still find it hard to believe he'll really will be gone. I don't know.
28:02
It's- I mean, I mean, I know what you're saying, but at some point money just becomes a prob- A cap's, a cap's a cap... yeah, an impossible issue. A cap's a cap. Yeah.
28:08
And the Eagles, and the Eagles are the one team where it always feels like if you're, like, one of their rivals, [laughs] every time the Eagles do something, my reaction as a Washington fan is always like, "Uh, they don't have a cap?
28:16
Is that, they can do that, too?" Plus, plus the moment you see it, it's like if you got traded or something, right? Jalen Carter traded to whoever, you'd be like, "Well, there was clearly something wrong there," right?
28:25
Like, well, that, that would be our immediate reaction 'cause the Eagles never screw this stuff up, seemingly. What was your Minkah Fitzpatrick theory that, uh, as great of a player is, he's not a beloved guy there?
28:34
Oh, no, I have no idea. I was comparing him to C.J. Gardner-Johnson where it's like- Yeah...
28:37
the, he's, like, he played for, like, four teams last year, and he's like this great player, good enough to get constantly picked up by these other teams- Yeah...
28:44
but seems to wear out his welcome within about a- Sure does... month, month and a half. Sure does. So I don't know, maybe the same thing's going on with Minkah there. I d- don't know. Do we do a Country Club and intro?
28:53
Yeah, let's do it. Go for it. [upbeat music] Oh, yeah. Blow sticks. Congratulations again to Ben Wilson's family celebrating there in the Country Club and Open.
29:12
Larry. Congratulations over his, uh, pending nuptials. Yes, for real. Ben Wilson. I haven't spoke to him in person about it yet. We texted a bit.
29:19
Ben Wilson now, of course, has to do conference tournament games and, uh, has to endure the heckling of Todd Wishnev this week. He was, uh, I almost met up with him a couple weeks ago.
29:28
Like, when we first announced, he w- classic Ben Wilson. He was, like, in town for, like, a night- Yeah...
29:32
and had to go over to Dollar Loan Center or whatever it is, and I was like, "Oh, like, oh, well, let's go grab a drink or something after your game."
29:38
He's like, "I gotta get right on a flight, like, right afterward, like, to go do something LG League or something." Like- Is...
29:44
If I, I love the thing about it's no longer the Dollar Loan Center, but it will always be the Dollar Loan Center to us. Oh, you g- I mean- Always...
29:50
this is, it's where, it's where, uh, well, I think you hadn't been there either, right?
29:54
It's where we discovered the gorgeous arena and, you know, it had to do with Victor Wembanyama's, like, first- We watched Wembanyama. Yeah. What, how many people do you think were there when we watched Wembanyama?
30:03
That's a great question. Couple thousand? Oh, I don't even think there was that many. The whole place is 4,000. I don't think there were 2,000 people there. Such a great arena. Just think about that. It was amazing.
30:14
Yeah. Dollar Loan Center arena. Um- Yeah, we were there on two separate days, though, right? Uh, that I don't remember. Think so. Okay.
30:21
They, remember they did, like, the games, like, there was, like, two games in two days or something like that. Oh, yeah, something, something. Yeah. Anyway- I, I got the Ben Wilson treatment.
30:29
I, I mean, I was like VIP with Ben Wilson. [laughs] He ca- he came up and sat with us for a little bit. Yeah. Uh, tennis plays today on the men's side, Valentin Vacherot.
30:39
Valentin Vacherot, money line plus 140 versus Casper Ruud. Vacherot at plus 140. Again, really good hard court numbers. Burst onto the scene in Shanghai last year out of nowhere, wins that tournament in Shanghai.
30:54
Cousin of Arthur Rinderknech. Um, Ruud has done well at this tournament in the past, but I think Vacherot gets the best of him. I think Vacherot dictates.
31:02
On the ladies side, Belinda Bencic versus Elise Mertens, two really good players, but I like the, uh, number on Bencic and minus 120, all based on the data of course. And then Sonay Kartal plus 152 versus Maddie Keys.
31:15
Not a historically great tournament for Maddie Keys, but she's gotten this far. But I think Kartal surprises today at plus 152. Her numbers are shockingly good.
31:26
So Vacherot on the men's side, Bencic and Kartal on the ladies side at Indian Wells, which has been a grind for sure, but, uh, not too close to making it profitable.
31:40
Not t- not too n- d- not too far away from making it profitable. And by the way, Iala and Swiatek still alive. Iga Swiatek not so much in our c- in our futures. Iga Swiatek lost her, uh, opening match.
31:51
She had three match points. She gagged 'em. Pss. Iala two wins away from cashing our second quarter, and Iga today taking on Maria Sakkari in her round of 32 match, uh, at Indian Wells today. Coachella Valley,
32:08
where there's the, uh, Coachella concert and then there's a Stagecoach, I think the country music one follows that one. What a great spot in this country that is. And how's the, uh...
32:17
I, I was kinda asking Drew about this last week. I don't think I really got an answer out of him. H- how is the wind out there? Well, it c- it, when Alcaraz took the court against your boy Grigor- Ugh, Grigor. Yeah...
32:28
the other day, it was howling. And so you really do, you're really fighting the conditions as much as, as you are your opponent. Okay. Okay. So it's- And it- And it's swirly, and it, it...
32:39
They always say about this tournament, it's two different tournaments in one. There's the daytime tournament, there's the nighttime tournament. But it really wasn't that cold at night. It was perfect weather. Perfect.
32:48
Yeah, it was nice out here, man. It was really beautiful. But the wind, when it comes up, it's a problem, for sure. So what about your props this, uh, weekend then in the golf tournament? How'd that go? No, not so much?
32:56
Oh, y- you mean my golfing from Friday? Oh. My golf- Your golfing. My astound- Yes. Oh. My amazing return to the golf course on Friday. So- How did that go? I didn't even ask. Oh man, it was, uh, it was a lot of fun.
33:08
It was a lot of fun, myself, Danny Higgins, uh, Isaiah Wrinkle, and of course Matt Brown out there. Danny Higgins, get well soon. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Hmm. Danny, Danny feeling it today, I guess.
33:16
Um, m- might be feeling that butt whooping that I laid down. Oh. That's what he might be feeling, Gil. Really? How'd you play? The te- the team of Brown and Bidlin did win. Um, I, you know what?
33:27
There was a lot of bad shots. There, there was some really good shots, though, too. It was, uh, I was actually, but I actually played a lot better than I would've guessed. Uh, but it was a lot of fun, man.
33:35
It was a lot of fun. That happens sometimes with golf. You don't play in a while, the first time back you play better than you would the next time. I- it's, yeah. Yeah.
33:40
I- i- it's all that that's in my head, Gil, like where e- you know, all the guys are like, "Oh, we're doing this regularly." And I'm like, "Man, probably not. Probably not." It was a good time, but probably not.
33:48
[laughs] Um, the, uh, the, it was great prop set by Rob Moreno. Even s- Yes... I gotta g- I gotta shout out Fezzik, 'cause even he dropped one.
33:57
Remember the end of the show on Friday where he was like, "Here's a, here's a fun one for you, Kelly."
34:01
He's like, "Will you have a ball that ends up further away on your next shot from where you s- y- where you were on the previous shot?" And that, that happened, like, twice where I like, I had like- [laughs]...
34:11
I think one putt that I just went sailing ba- uh, across the green. One chip, like same thing. Um, okay, no thr- no club or th- uh, smashes or throw. There was none of that, none of that nonsense.
34:22
Uh, Danny I think thinks that the under hit on the F-bombs. That's not true, then he wasn't listening. He, he was, he, he said something like that at the end of the round. He's like, "Man- 18 and a half. Oh...
34:30
like, I can't believe the under hit on that." Over under one and a half pars. We did a shamble, so I guess this really isn't fair to grade this, 'cause it wasn't just me personally, but it was over.
34:40
Good on Danny and Isaiah for being better sports than I, I would've been if I were in their position.
34:45
We split up Matt and myself, 'cause Matt's like the strongest golfer, and we put m- you know, me with him 'cause I hadn't, hadn't played in forever. But like, Matt Brown's driving the ball like 315 yards off the tee.
34:57
We just used his drive every time. It was completely unfair. I would've quit halfway through if I was those two. Is Matt driving it 315 now? Dude, yes. He almost drove the green on like a 330-yard par four.
35:09
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36:16
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Numbers Game brought to you by Profit X. Now, here's the deal, okay? I wanna go through these details again one by one.
36:28
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37:17
Apparently he's the reigning King of March, I think that guy right there. I'm assuming. Yeah. Yeah, he looks like it. Looks like it. ProfitX. Check it out.
37:26
Uh, okay, uh, Kelly, uh, real quick, back to your, uh, back to your story. Yes. Yeah. Where you were rudely interrupted by the commercial. Where did you all- Fair, fair enough... end up playing on Friday?
37:34
Well, Gil, I'm glad you brought that up, 'cause, uh, I believe I, I was telling the audience end of last week that we were going to, you know, Matt's, Matt's private club. Right. Wherever that might be. I, I didn't know.
37:45
So I'm, I'm driving over to the course and, and I, you're kind of driving into it and we, we played at, played at Palm Valley for anybody familiar out here.
37:52
And, and I'm pulled into it and I'm like, "All right," like, "This is nice." Like, I kinda, kinda expected a little better from Matt, to be honest. Like, that's kinda what I'm thinking in my head.
37:59
[laughs] And then I pull into it and I'm like, "Wait a second. This is a public course." Like, this isn't, this isn't like his private course.
38:05
Of course, M- Matt made the good decision to bring us out to a public course to let me hacking around at. Ah. I think. Yeah, yeah. He wasn't gonna have you at his club.
38:12
I don't think he wa- I don't think he wanted me, uh, me to embarrass him in front of, you know, his, his- His new friends. That's right, his new friends, his fancy- Who, who are these three people- Exactly...
38:20
you brought here, Matt? The Smothermans might've been out there. That's right. Who, who's this, who's this person? [laughs] It was a good call, though. It was still, it was still a tough course. The, um...
38:30
I, I gotta go back to the props, Gil. Yeah. These were great. Will Kelly at some point blame the clubs? This is the easiest yes cash ever. I said that on Friday, but yeah, it, it, I was blaming clubs immediately.
38:40
Um- Did you hit one over 200? I sure did. Yeah. I sure did. There were, there was a couple drives I wa- I, I definitely got over that, so that was nice. How, how, how about the direction of that drive?
38:49
Was it down the fairway, or was it like to another- Oh, no, yeah, the, the- Oh, yeah... no, I had one or two that was right down the fairway. Okay. Easily over 200 yards.
38:55
I was a little insulted by that prop number by Rob, but that's fine. Um, did, did hit the over there. Over on lost balls for sure. I don't even know how many. I went through like 11 or something like that. Hmm.
39:05
There was, there was, uh, I think Danny and I each in, uh, uh, achieved, achieved hitting it in the water, Gil, from like 10 yards out. Oh, nice. Like he, like he had a tee shot that just went way in the water. Yeah.
39:17
And for real I hit one out of a trap that just went right in the water like five feet away. Seriously, is there any, is there any activity in life harder than golf? It's incredible. It's incredible. It's wild.
39:25
And then meanwhile, I hit a green on a par three. That no problem. Yeah. Over on the drinks hit. Definitely hit one in the water. I hit a house, but Danny hit more. And, uh, yeah.
39:33
Da- Danny hit more than, more than one house? I, there was, I think it's, I ha- I had one that I don't even know. I'm gonna say it hit a house. Yeah. It definitely hit a yard if it didn't hit a house. All right.
39:42
It went some, on someone's property. Well, a yard doesn't count. The, the sound that the ball makes when it hits the house, there's nothing like it. So it, so- Yeah...
39:50
that's where I can't say for sure mine hit a house, Gil, 'cause I never heard that sound. Danny hit two, I think, that were like smack.
39:57
Like, thank God it wasn't any shattering of glass, but it, it was the, the loud smack of hitting right into a house.
40:02
We've talked about this before, but the people who buy houses on golf courses and then have the audacity to be indignant about when you hit their house with a golf ball, like, what's that? I, I don't know.
40:11
You, me and I have talked. Yeah. There was, there was f- one, one lady, it was funny, that I, I had hi- mishit one, didn't hit a house. Yeah. But it, it got close to her house. Yeah.
40:19
And I think she was outside already, but she like took, she like took the time to walk like the 15 feet to get, to get my ball and throw it back out at me, like nicely. And I was like, "What did..."
40:29
Like, kind of like you're talking about. I was like, "Who, who does that?" [laughs] Nobody needs to do that either. How dare you do that? Um, did, and, and so the meltdown didn't happen? The, the same game parlay?
40:39
No, not at all. No, no club throw. We all kept our cool. Yeah. Okay. We all kept our cool. Kelly Bidlin's- Fun was had by all... the, the K Michael Bidlin Invitational. Over on the real PGA tour. Yeah.
40:48
Dude, our guy Daniel Berger. Oh, it was tough, man. Oh. It was tough. Loses in a playoff to Akshay Bhatia. Yeah.
40:55
And it was, man, w- a wild, a wild final nine holes, 'cause it really did, I mean, anybody who missed it, Daniel Berger really held onto this thing. Looked like he was gonna go wire to wire.
41:05
Had the lead throughout the entire tournament. Um, he got to the back nine. You had some guys that started making a move. Akshay had drifted early in his round. Didn't really look like he was gonna be involved.
41:16
And then the putter, which was, which was red hot all weekend. Birdies 10, birdies 11, birdies 12, birdies 13, bogeys 15, eagles 16. Puts himself right in the mix.
41:28
Hit one of the most incredible shots on 18 to put himself close. Uh, it, the, these guys, the last few holes, it was a duel, man. It, and it was, you and I both Daniel Berger fans.
41:39
It was tough to watch, 'cause it was, you could tell he was doing everything he could just to hold onto this lead that he had built for himself over the first three rounds.
41:47
Um, and just hits this massive par putt to send it to a playoff. He's all jacked up. Just can't get it done in the playoff, man. And this was, you know, the only thing that's crazy, people will see this highlight.
41:59
Let round three got suspended. They had to pick it up their final hole early yesterday morning of round three, before they got to the final round, right, Gil?
42:07
Akshay hits one of these putts that, like, you're like, is, did any, did anybody start timing this thing? 'Cause it, it hung on the ledge of the cup. Oh. For, I don't know, 20 something seconds.
42:19
Like, they start walking up to it- Yeah... like he's gonna grab, boom, tips it. Wow. I mean, and that's- Oh... look at the final score. What a, that ended up mattering a whole lot.
42:29
I was wondering, because they don't, they, they never really highlight the money one. Right? In these tournaments $4 million this week So Akshay Bhatia gets $4 million.
42:38
Dan Berger's, Daniel Berger still made $2.2 million. So I always wonder, like, we focus on, yes, he wanted to win the tournament, but, like, he goes home to Mrs. Berger, he's like, "Yeah, we won 2.2 million." Yeah, yeah.
42:48
Think she cared? I don't know. I don't know, man. The pro- I don't know... problem is I think that's, I think that's, the money, I think, means more for a guy like Akshay, who's- Of course...
42:58
young and up and coming, you know, he kind of chose this for a career path. Daniel Berger's won before though, right?
43:03
And we've seen him for a long time trying to get back now to that point, and I think that one hurt yesterday. Yeah. I think that one hurt. Yeah. Good, good play, man.
43:12
I added some other guys I'll just point out quick, I think that's worth noting for going forward. Dave Ross's guy, Ludvig Åberg, I thought was very impressive.
43:20
Uh, second-best tee degree numbers on the week behind Daniel Berger. All right, Ludvig, you're back on my radar. We'll see if you take any of my money here, um, soon.
43:28
Cameron Young, a good finish, so he's put together a couple now this year. Uh, he finished tee three r- right next to Ludvig, and Collin Morikawa, fifth place finish.
43:37
Uh, he, man, he, he's, he's playing some really good golf with a win already this year. He'll be on my radar looking ahead to the Players Championship this week. Um, Russell Henley, a good finish.
43:47
Rickie Fowler again, man, I, there was not many bet- bets that I won this week, but Rickie Fowler, another top 10 finish. This is, I, I really think, yo, this is as high as I've ever been on Rickie Fowler is right now.
43:59
Wow. Say, and it, it's just, it's basically, top 20 is basically just an automatic bet for me at this point. I don't really see myself going away from him this week. Back to Daniel Berger for a second. Mm-hmm.
44:07
You know how I did this with the AT- random ATP players last, last ye- uh, last week. I said, "How much do you think Mackie McDonald has made in his career?" It was over $7 million, tennis player. Oh, damn.
44:17
Daniel Berger, career earnings, what do you think? A great question. I have no idea. Tw- ah. $27 million. Close. 29.9 million to 32 million- Wow, okay... depending on your math. Okay. I mean- Yeah...
44:33
it's a good living if you can get it. [laughs] It's a good, it's a good living, man. It's a good living. Yeah. Dude, at these type, I mean, these signature events, right?
44:39
We could talk a lot about how, how LIV kind of hurt things for a while. It made some of these ev- events start to exist on the PGA Tour that are big money events outside of the majors.
44:49
And yeah, the fact that you can, the fact that you can take home 2.2 million without winning- Yeah... [laughs] uh, you can't do that very often.
44:55
Well, this is why the whole LIV thing in the end is this double-edged sword of, not double-edged sword, but it's, it's a, it's a complicated answer to the question, did LIV win? Mm.
45:06
Okay, LIV didn't win because nobody watches LIV. Right, right. But did LIV win for the players 100%? Uh, I, I mean, it force changed the PGA Tour- Force changed-... and specifically how they're paid, yep...
45:19
how they're paid up top, but it, it, it just, it exposed the PGA Tour for really the premise, which is y'all aren't paying these guys nearly as much as you should be. Mm-hmm, mm-hmm.
45:31
So, and yet none of, [laughs] none of us watch w- what is your collective, if I had to ask you, collective number of minutes you've watched of LIV Golf since its inception, what's your answer?
45:41
Oh, it's a, it's a, um, so I watched one of the tournaments at the beginning of this year, multiple, multiple rounds. I would say I watched probably- Oh, you did... two or, two or three hours.
45:52
But that was by far the most of a tournament I had ever watched of LIV Golf. And- Mine is less than one minute... I would say combined hours that I've watched, what are we in, year four or something now?
46:02
Something like that. Three or f- Yeah... no, it's four. It's gotta be year four. Yeah. Something like that. I'll guess 30 hours combined.
46:09
It's at least year four, 'cause we were at the South Point when, like, Dustin Johnson got 100 million and we were losing our minds, right? Yeah. Yeah.
46:15
The better question would be TGL, the, uh, the indoor golf, 'cause I don't... That, that they s- they s- intelligently, like we always complain about a lot of the other leagues.
46:23
It's on at 5:00 Eastern Time, so it's on two, 2:00 out here. [upbeat music] I often have it on in the background, but I'm really not paying attention to it. Yeah. It's interesting. It is.
46:35
How it, uh, they, th- for themselves, it didn't work out, but they, they really did change the game, for sure. Uh, let's talk some baseball. I'll recap my March/April bet in Major League Baseball on the other side.
46:46
We'll look a little head-to-head regular season wins, team versus team, see if those are bettable. Adam Burke will join us as well. Numbers Game, VSi, the sports betting network.
46:55
[upbeat music] Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more. That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
47:08
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks.
47:15
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
47:22
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
47:28
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
47:38
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
47:46
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
A Numbers Game
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