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May 10, 2024
A Numbers Game | May 10, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 10, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. So all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of the Numbers Game, presented by DraftKings, as we're back from downtown Las Vegas. Spar Canada at the D on a Friday morning. Some patrons starting to fill in.
0:17
Golf getting underway here in a couple minutes. The tennis out in Rome has been underway for, uh, several hours, and we've got a lot to talk about on this hour of the show. Back with our producer Kelly Bidlin.
0:26
I'm Ben Wilson. We've got NHL, UFC talk coming up right now with our pal Lou Finoccaro, longtime VSiN contributor and part of the About Business podcast.
0:35
We'll, uh, dive into some UFC here in a little bit, but Lou, it's great to see you as always.
0:39
And as we go out to the progressive guest line, uh, you are a man who is very much diving deep into the S- NHL postseason card right now.
0:46
And how about those New York Rangers who, uh, despite being almost doubled in their shots, get it done last night. They take it down in three-nothing series lead in that Eastern Conference semi against Carolina.
0:55
They've moved out of the pretty prohibitive favorite here to win the Cup at plus 330.
0:59
Uh, you're someone who had invested in the Rangers in the series price here, but how, uh, how much are you buying in now with what the Rangers continue to do?
1:06
They've been outscored in the, in five on fives here against Carolina. Yet they're up in the series 3-0. It's pretty crazy. It is crazy, and I, I first wanna thank you guys for having me on.
1:17
I love talking about, uh, the, the postseason in hockey. And, uh, listen, no one more than the networks would like to see the Rangers keep this up, but they are in the more difficult side of the bracket I think.
1:31
And let's not overlook what Florida is doing.
1:34
And so right now, while all eyes and all the attention is on what the Rangers are doing, and, and granted, uh, Shesterkin can stand it on his head, and a hot goaltender can do that for you.
1:46
But, uh, f- you know, Florida getting through Tampa Bay like they did now, uh, on the Boston-Toronto side, which I thought was maybe a little b- more favorable than having to compete against either the Rangers or Carolina.
2:00
I think Florida's the monster in the room in the East, and, and right now that might be the way I would steer people, not only in series angles, but for the, uh, Wales Conference.
2:11
And right now, Florida is the second choice because of the position they're at in their series, 1-1 right now going, uh, back to Boston there tonight. Florida two to one to win the East, Rangers at plus 115.
2:21
But I am noticing, Lou, in the market for tonight a lot of movement here toward the road Panthers. It's 1-1 as we go back to Boston. Panthers out to minus 125 consensus, out from, uh, minus 120 on the opener.
2:31
Panthers $1.65 series price favored. How much do you agree with that market movement here in a 1-1 series that's been played pretty tightly so far? I tend to agree with it, I, uh, for two reasons.
2:44
Number one, uh, the road teams are, uh, 25 and 27, so they're competing with home teams, number one. Number two, I think the seven-day rest for the Panthers was, was... You had to get 'em in those first two games.
2:59
The longer this series goes, the fact that Boston had to compete for seven games against Toronto, I think the young legs, the freshness of the Florida legs will come into focus, and I, I like Florida in this series to, again, this year, uh, find a way to get past Boston.
3:17
Now, it's not gonna be easy, but I do believe they do it. And again, the odds at this point, minus 165 in a tight series to this point. Game three tonight there in Boston.
3:26
That is one of our two games tonight here, Lou, on this Friday night. We also go to Vancouver.
3:30
Canucks have just been the, you know, the bright feel-good story of the season over, over skated expectations in the regular season, win round one. Here we go again.
3:39
They're underdogs, big underdogs to Edmonton in the series, but they go out, they win game one, uh, in a ser- in a game where the Canucks were able to find a lot on offense here.
3:48
Uh, so Edmonton now, they're again favored on the road, but not nearly as significantly as they were in game one, down to about minus 125 here on the road.
3:55
How much are you buying into what Vancouver's been able to do here as they take a one-nothing lead, uh, back home tonight?
4:03
I have been very guilty of overlooking Vancouver through the last s- uh, part of the regular season and the early part of the playoffs, but Rick Tocchet has made a fool of me, and I'm done with it now.
4:16
I, I think that Edmonton's history in past Cup performances or lack thereof is gonna make them tight, and you add the fact that Henrique and Draisaitl are dinged up and Skinner played a shaky game, and now you couple Vancouver with young guys believing a- and I think you have, uh, an opportunity for Vancouver here.
4:38
I think this series now gets very, very competitive, and the way I'm going to attack this, I'm gonna use Florida in series plays. And, uh, down here in Phoenix, DraftKings menu is great.
4:50
We can parlay Florida in the series with Vancouver plus one and a half games. That's a minus 200. One unit of measure returns 1.40. I'm very high on that kind of approach to both of these series.
5:05
I'm very jealous of you, Lou, for that, uh, for that ability. As we, we mention all the time, our, our... Well, it is a 45-minute drive.
5:10
Kelly's made that drive all the time to, uh, you know, to go get some, some action in, uh- Right... in Arizona. Edmonton minus 140. And the food truck. Well, yes, of course. Gotta go to the food truck.
5:18
Edmonton minus 140 in that series right now, even though they're down 1-0, with Vancouver coming back there at plus 120.
5:25
The one other series here, Lou, to talk about that you also are including in some of these series parlays that in certain jurisdictions you are able to do is Colorado-Dallas, which is basically return now to a pick 'em.
5:35
After Dallas shows up last night, they go out, they, uh, race out to a four-nothing lead.
5:39
Had to hang on for dear life to beat Colorado 5-3, and now the Avs are down to minus 120 in the series price, going back to Colorado in a 1-1 series there.
5:48
Lou, what do you make of what we've seen in the back and forth in that series so far?
5:53
I have to admit I have Dallas, uh, futures, and wh- when the series was down, when Dallas was down 0-1, Dallas series was plus 170 just before the game, so we jumped on that. Now the series is, uh, one, 1-1.
6:08
We're going back to Colorado. I keep looking for, uh, the Colorado netminder to show, uh, a- an ability to flail, but he's not.
6:18
And what's actually happening, it's, it's Oettinger in the Dallas but, uh, goal that has shown himself to be less than stellar so far these playoffs.
6:29
Here is another series that I think is very competitive, goes seven games. And again, with this DraftKings menu here, Co- uh, Colorado plus the goal and plus a game and a half, minus 280.
6:43
And I'm gonna use Florida again at that minus 165 just for the series. That's plus 117 on a return. Uh, the menu is... If the menu, uh, is gonna offer me that kind of opportunity, I'm gonna be aggressive and take it.
6:59
So I'm really building a foundation on Florida in this series and using some plus game and a halves, one with Vancouver, one with Colorado.
7:07
Yeah, it's a wonderful approach to take, especially if you're in a jurisdiction where you can, uh, do that, as our pal Lou Fanecaaro has, and Alexander Georgiev, who's been very solid in net for, uh, the Avalanche for the most part.
7:17
The series expected back there tomorrow night. That'll be game three tomorrow, going back to Denver in a 1-1 series.
7:23
You follow Lou @Gamblu, known for his UFC, uh, aficionado, uh, type, you know, type moniker that we, we all put on you, Lou, with the About Business podcast.
7:32
And while it's a smaller event this week, and we do have a fight night in St.
7:36
Louis, should be a good crowd there at the Enterprise Center in the Midwest here, and, uh, a six, uh, fight main, uh, main card here that I want to start with, with the, uh, the main event.
7:45
Seeing some movement, uh, to the dog, not really a shock when you have some of these, uh, lower bouts in general. But, uh, Derrick Lewis, seeing the market move against him a touch to Rodrigo Nascimento down to plus 135.
7:55
How, uh, in lockstep are you with the betting market's willingness to take a stab on the dog there in the main event? Yeah, I, I like some dogs on this card, Ben. I'm not sure if I like this one.
8:05
A- and the reason is, yes, he's a mixed martial artist and can grapple and strike.
8:11
That said, he was knocked out by Philadelphia policeman Chris Daukaus, who's no longer in the UFC, and he's in there against, uh, the Black Beast, Derrick Lewis, who's feeling, uh, pretty good for the first time in a few bouts.
8:27
All Lewis has is an explosive nature and profuse power, and I think that could be a dangerous combination, uh, against Nascimento. I tend to...
8:38
I- a gun to my head, and I'm not gonna bet this fight, a gun to my head, I'm probably gonna lean to the Beast to find him, uh, sometime in fi- during five rounds.
8:47
Yeah, Lewis down to minus 160 there, a consensus price in the main event.
8:52
The co-main, we ta- we talk about bettors being interested in dogs, Lou, and you're always a, a guy, you're, you're preaching find the value on the underdogs.
8:59
I don't know about value anymore because Nursult- uh, Nursultan Ruziboev has just been steamed here in the market from plus 145 down to plus 110 against Joaquin Buckley.
9:08
Uh, Lou, what's been the basis for such a massive movement like this of now over 30 cents on Ruziboev?
9:15
Uh, well, Ruziboev is some seven inches taller, and though he doesn't have a reach advantage, he'll surely have that leverage advantage.
9:23
And while Buckley has some wrestling background, he's not a guy that's gonna take it to the floor. If, if he, Buckley was two inches taller, he'd be square. He's just heavily muscled.
9:34
And Ruziboev is gonna have to get this fight, manage this fight into the second round to allow Buckley to swell up a little bit and slow down. He surely doesn't wanna stand toe to toe with him early in this fight.
9:47
Ruziboev, the well more versed, well-rounded mixed martial artist, is gonna need to get him to the floor. Now, the one thing I'll say for those that like Buckley is Ruziboev is an 185-pound fighter.
10:01
He's cut to 170 for this fight, and most of his losses have come at 170.
10:07
Now, I'm on the Ruziboev side early in the week, and so we got a little better price than what we're seeing now, but I, I look for this to be a very competitive fight.
10:16
But Ruziboev must use IQ and take this fight into the second round or better in order to gain advantage. Lou Fanecaaro joining us on our progressive guest line right now. You mentioned you do like some dogs, Lou.
10:27
What's another dog that you do like looking further down this card here for UFC Fight Night, uh, this weekend in St. Louis? At the featherweight division, uh, Sean Woodson, a St.
10:37
Louis native, a long, tall, skinny guy, but he's a great kickboxer and needs distance to manage, uh, his advantage, and he's in against a guy in Alex Caceres that has great experience, has fought the who's who of couple of different divisions now, and Caceres simply is a dog.
10:57
He trains here at Phoenix's MMA lab. Uh, th- the Caceres formula will be to attack those pencil legs of Woodson with leg kicks and push him back and force him to expend energy.
11:11
It took an hour for Woodson to weigh in this morning, so he cut some weight. I don't think he had any real trouble, but, uh, for an hour, Caceres was drinking orange juice and eating bananas.
11:21
And I look for Caceres to try and bully Woodson. Caceres plus 180 currently. That's available at multiple books around the market as well. Follow Lou @Gamblu. Check out the About Business podcast as well.
11:33
Always great to catch up with you, Lou. It's a pleasure. Be well. Thanks so much, guys. Good luck to everybody. No question.
11:39
We will continue our great list of guests on this Friday when we come back because Adam Burke joins to talk some Major League Baseball when we return to a Numbers Game.
11:47
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Back on a Numbers Game live from downtown Las Vegas, Bar Canada at the D. We've got the Wells Fargo on here, uh, in, in the background, forcing Kelly Bidlin to, uh, awkwardly crane his neck in a 180-degree direction.
12:12
Sorry about that, uh, Kelly. I don't like this game. All right. It's the opposite of, it's the opposite of the South Point setup, right? I'd be able to v- Oh my God, a guy hit a hole in one...
12:18
view past Gil's shoulder to watch something in the, uh, in the sports book. Yeah. I couldn't make Kelly, uh, bite, uh, bite on that.
12:23
What they're doing now on PGA Tour Live is they're doing live interviews, uh, with guys on the range, which is kinda cool That is very cool.
12:30
It seems to make a lot of sense since the past two years we've seen them introduce on-the-course interviews while guys are in the middle of their round.
12:37
So yeah, yeah, while warming up seems to make a little bit more sense. [laughs] It does, yeah.
12:41
Funny, you have Taylor Moore talking about whatever while he's, like, changing the, the, uh, you know, his alignment sticks out, out on the range. Great stuff.
12:48
Uh, we go out right now to our progressive guest line, uh, to a, a friend of the show, and of the network, and of all of us. It's Adam Burke at Skating Tripods. Talking Major League Baseball.
12:57
You know, Kelly, once upon a time, Adam and I hosted, uh, a great baseball-specific show here at VSiN called The Run Line. Who could ever forget? Who could ever forget? Sunday. Adam, great to have you back, man.
13:05
Good to see you. Good to see you guys, too. Kelly forgot it before we even started the segment. [laughs] So that's the answer to that question.
13:11
The greatest baseball show that has ever been canceled in the history of VSiN. [laughs] It's a great... It was a great time. Adam, you... We'd... Sunday nights, man, it was a, a great thing.
13:19
You know, the staple though of that show, which I, I really loved, and it was something that, uh, we enjoyed diving deep into every week, was something called the Regression Report, which could be positive or negative.
13:28
But we're at the point now, Adam, it's May 10th, right?
13:30
We've got a good amount of data to kind of suggest whether it's individuals, teams, regression of the positive or negative is definitely something that we feel like is about to hit.
13:39
Who's kind of the leader in the clubhouse from your perspective?
13:42
If we go maybe individual first, let's say pitchers that you believe are, are kind of in that, that classic situation of either positive or negative regression as it stands right now.
13:52
Yeah, I mean, you know, there's a lot of guys here, especially because you, you know, as you mentioned, you're kind of getting enough data points now to really look at some sample size here.
14:00
One guy who's in line for a lot of positive regression, a- and I don't know if it's going to happen, but it's Patrick Sandoval. Patrick Sandoval's got a 485 ERA right now with a 291 FIP.
14:10
Babip, his batting average on balls in play, 361. Left on base percentage, 60.5%.
14:16
He's a guy who's racking up a lot of strikeouts and a lot of ground balls, but he's still not having a whole lot of success despite either one of those things.
14:23
So, you know, a guy that's gotten unlucky a lot on his batted balls. The Angels are actually improved defensively this season after being a dumpster fire the last few years.
14:31
And of course, you know, new manager Ron Washington, that's a hallmark of kind of what his, you know, baseball career has been about, the fundamentals, playing good defense, stuff like that.
14:40
But a guy who's in line for positive regression is Patrick Sandoval. I just- Yeah... don't know if it's going to show up.
14:46
A guy I'll be looking to on the other side of this, Adam, I'm gonna be looking to fade this weekend. I believe he's in line to start, uh, Sunday here for Baltimore. Dean Kremer.
14:54
I'm gonna put Adam into a, into a tizzy here, 'cause I'm gonna mention barrel rate, Kelly, which, you know. If Adam wasn't awake already, now he is. Dean Kremer,
15:02
192 Babip, fourth lu- fourth luckiest is how you kind of phrase that here in Major League Baseball.
15:07
And the barrel percentage he's giving up is a ridiculous 12 and a half percent, which is the second worst in Major League Baseball. I, I, I don't know how he keeps doing this.
15:16
It's a Diamondbacks offense [laughs] that's been really good this year. He'll face them o- on Sunday. But man, if, if there's anybody who has the red flashing lights to me right now, Adam, is...
15:24
of a pitcher who is going to come back to earth, it, uh, to me, is Dean Kremer with those very frightening peripheral numbers. Yeah, Dean Kremer, 357 ERA, 502 expected ERA. Oof. His FIP up in the 475 range.
15:37
Yeah, he's a guy definitely in line for some negative regression.
15:39
And look, you know, I think as the weather warms up, we may start to see some of this come to fruition with some of these guys, particularly the guys with the high barrel rates, because we've seen a massive power drop-off in Major League Baseball across the board here.
15:53
Something I'm gonna write about very soon at vsin.com, whether it's today or Monday here coming up after the weekend, but the home run to fly ball ratio is down quite significantly. The pop-up rate is up a little bit.
16:04
Some of it has to do with how pitchers are attacking hitters.
16:07
They're throwing a lot of fastballs up in the zone, trying to get them to hit, you know, the absolute bottom part of the baseball, just pop it up, hit it weakly somewhere, stuff like that.
16:16
But also, there are some whispers out there in the social media community that maybe the baseball has been altered yet again, and the baseball's just not carrying as much as expected.
16:25
So maybe warmer weather will kind of help all of that stabilize. But for right now, there's a big power outage in Major League Baseball, so some of these guys with the high barrel rates have gotten a little bit lucky.
16:37
Maybe that's something that turns here as we go forward.
16:39
Yeah, that, that's absolutely fascinating when you bring it up, Adam, and it leads me into some of these individual teams that have gotten off to slow starts, even if some of the advanced data was s- would suggest they should be getting more fortuitous with those batted balls.
16:52
The Seattle Mariners are the one team that stands out to me, where they're bottom 10 in WRC+. Julio Rodriguez has looked lost at the plate most of the year. But they're fourth in hard hit rate so far.
17:02
They're hitting a lot of balls hard, just not getting the benefit of any of those dropping or going over the fence here.
17:07
How much of that, when you kind of talk about some of the potential changes to the balls here, do you maybe believe in Seattle or are you maybe not as, as inclined to think that's a true direct lineage towards positive regression there for the Mariners?
17:21
You know, the Mariners are interesting, 'cause they got rid of four guys from last year, including Teoscar Hernández, Yovani Suárez.
17:27
There were four guys on that team that aren't there this year that were pretty much regulars in the lineup that struck out over 30% of the time.
17:33
So the thought was that the Mariners were going to make a lot more contact this season. That has not been the case at all. Their strikeout percentage this year, 28.7%.
17:42
That is the highest in Major League Baseball by more than 2%. Oof. Colorado is second. So Seattle's just not making enough contact.
17:50
And while they've made a lot of hard contact when they have, you know, been able to hit the baseball, they don't make enough contact. So that's one of the big reasons why this team has struggled offensively.
17:59
They're just not giving themselves a chance. And the thing about it is, you know, as you mentioned, I mean, this is a team that is, you know, tied for ninth in home runs with 40.
18:08
You typically don't see that out of Seattle because T-Mobile Park is such a hindrance offensively. But this is a team that when they've made contact, they've done some good things, they just don't make enough of it.
18:19
And in fact, I believe their strikeout rate against right-handed pitching is actually up over 30%. Well, it's 29.5% now, so it was up over 30 here recently.
18:29
So you're gonna get a right-handed pitcher about 70% of the time, and if you're gonna strike out in 30% of those plate appearances- You're gonna have a lot of difficulty scoring runs, and that's why this is a team that has elite level starting pitching, a pretty competent bullpen, and yet they're just 20 and 18.
18:45
They got off to a really slow start. They've been better offensively here of late, um, you know, at least within the last three weeks or so, 'cause they were terrible to start the year.
18:54
So we'll see if they can keep that positive trend going. But right now, Ben, they just don't make enough contact. Yeah.
18:59
And amazingly they're still, because of how bad the AL West has been, they're only a, a game and a half back of the Rangers right now, plus 140 to win the division, and we're only, uh, in May 10th here with the Mariners sitting at 20 and 18.
19:10
Again, he's Adam Berg joining us right now on Numbers Game. Follow him at Skating Tripods.
19:14
As we're talking all things Major League Baseball, and probably the biggest individual storyline this weekend, Adam, it's going to be the long awaited debut...
19:20
I guess not long awaited, he's only been in the minors a, a matter of months, but it's Paul Skenes', uh, the most highly anticipated pitching debut we've had in quite some time.
19:29
Well, probably going back to the, you know, you think about, like, Steven Strasburg and how hyped his, uh, Major League debut was for, uh, you know, a US born pitcher.
19:37
But Skenes starts tomorrow night there for Pittsburgh at home against the Cubs. I've seen DraftKings, they've set, like, a season long strikeout prop at 109 and a half for Skenes.
19:45
Realistically here, start number one, guy throws, you know, 100, 101 with the fastball. What are your...
19:49
What are you expecting here out of Skenes with no real Major League data, uh, to speak of here as we go into his debut tomorrow? Yeah, I mean elite fastball, elite slider.
19:58
In terms of the stuff plus metrics that are out there, uh, you know, the best pitcher in, in triple A in that department. So a guy who very much has Major League caliber stuff.
20:07
Uh, to be honest with you, Ben, I'm kind of expecting one of those starts for him tomorrow where it's like five shutout innings, gives up two hits, strikes out nine, and then the bullpen blows it. [laughs] Yeah.
20:15
Or something like that. And, and people, people get upset 'cause Skenes tops out at, you know, 75 pitches. So the Pirates absolutely should be very careful with him. This is not a good baseball team once again.
20:27
Uh, they got off to a really hot start, they've been pretty awful since. Uh, the offense just isn't there for this team.
20:32
So there's really no incentive to push Skenes, and even Jared Jones, who gets the start here tonight. There's no incentive to push either one of those guys more than you have to. So I think Skenes will be electric.
20:43
I think it'll be a great atmosphere at PNC Park. I imagine he'll pitch very, very well for as much as he pitches throughout the course of this Major League Baseball season.
20:52
But look, nine of the top 10 guys in average fastball velocity from last season are on the IL, and Hunter Green had a big velocity drop yesterday in his start for the Reds. He's the only guy hanging on.
21:05
So, you know, the human body can only take so much. Throwing really hard has been, you know, a pretty big precursor to some kind of injury.
21:12
So the Pirates are gonna take it very, very easy with him, but the stuff is absolutely Major League ready, and I think we'll see... You know, if you follow Pitching Ninja on Twitter, uh- Yeah...
21:21
you're gonna see a lot of Paul Skenes tomorrow. Yeah, 100%. Look for Adam's writeup coming up here shortly on vsin.com for the daily card.
21:28
Adam, anything jumping out to you here for the Friday slate specifically you want to get out in front of? Yeah, there's, there's one play that I like.
21:34
There's a lot of things I kind of like that I'm trying to decide if I can take that leap or not, but one play I definitely do like here, I like the Twins at a short price.
21:42
Uh, short underdog price, excuse me, against Toronto. Joe Ryan and Yusei Kikuchi in that one. Kikuchi's giving up a ton of hard contact here of late. 57.6% hard hit percentage over his last three starts.
21:55
Twins are a top five offense in WRC+ against lefties, and Toronto's just not hitting for any power this season, and that's really the only blemish for Joe Ryan on a pretty regular basis. He gives up the long ball.
22:06
But he's a guy who can induce strikeouts, induces a lot of weak fly balls. Rogers Centre should be a good pitching environment for him. I do like the Twins here today on a short dog price against Toronto.
22:17
He is Adam Berg. Give him a follow at Skating Tripods. Leads our website coverage at vsin.com. Check out his articles up six days a week on MLB. Long live the run line, Adam. Long live the run line.
22:27
Long live the run line. Thank you, boys. Have a good one. Good to see you, man. When we come back, we continue the baseball talk, except we transition to the colleges, where Paul Skenes dominated at LSU last year.
22:37
Our pal Matt Grissom from SEC country joins us to talk about the biggest storylines in college baseball with the postseason just a few weeks away. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:55
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23:04
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23:20
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23:35
Visit vsin.com/subscribe today to claim your 14 months of VSiN Pro for only $199 with promo code ANG. That is vsin.com/subscribe. We welcome you back in Numbers Game on a Friday. Final half hour for us.
23:49
We'll have best bets coming up in our final segment. But right now, uh, it's contractually obligated if I'm ever filling in for Gil here, uh, Kelly Bidlin knows this, it's college baseball talk. [laughs] Let's go, Kelly.
23:58
Shut up, Ben, and talk college baseball. Yeah. We don't care what you, uh, want to talk about. Yeah, no le- no league, uh, soccer for you. [laughs] It's college baseball.
24:05
And to do that, we have Matt Grissom, who joins us right now from the heart of SEC country in Arkansas as we got to our progressive guest line.
24:12
Uh, he's been a loyal listener, viewer, and also contributor here for us at VSiN, uh, especially as college baseball the betting interest has really ramped up over the, uh, past few seasons here.
24:21
So Matt, for a lot of bettors right now, they're kind of doing the parachute in, uh, process. Uh, they're not like you. You've been watching here since opening weekend.
24:28
I'm sure a lot of people are looking at the odds and they're going, "Oh, all right. Texas A&M, five to one to win it all." They're, they're the favorites right now. What can you say about a team like A&M at the top?
24:38
Are they deserving of being favorites, and, uh, how good actually are the Aggies here? Uh, we'll start with them here as we start, uh, this breakdown of top teams going into the final couple weeks of the regular season.
24:47
Yeah, hats off to Jim Schlossnagle. He's got the Aggies playing well. They're, at the moment, they're the most balanced team in the country, and, you know, right there with Tennessee.
24:58
Both of them have really good pitchers. Uh, they can bat really well. I am worried that A&M may have peaked a little too soon, and that may have been evident last weekend. They did drop a series to LSU on the road.
25:11
The defending national champs, that shouldn't sound like a big deal, but, uh, LSU's not very good this year, even though they may be up on the, the come up right now.
25:21
So A&M, they end the s- the season next weekend against Arkansas. I feel like that is gonna tell us a lot. Both Arkansas and A&M have both gotten the ability to evade having to play Tennessee in the regular season.
25:35
So I think that helps both of those teams as well. He's Matt Grissom. You can follow him @GrissomOnX.
25:40
It's funny, you and I were, we were texting privately about the A&M thing, because I loved them, I loved them at 18 to 1. I don't know if I love them at five to one.
25:47
[laughs] And it does kind of feel like with the start that they had. I mean, A&M was, uh, was off to a ridiculous 17 and 0 start, 24 and 8 since, and just lost two of three, like you mentioned, at LSU.
25:57
Uh, that is your current leader in the clubhouse.
25:59
I think as we have done this over the years, Matt, we've always kind of gravitated away from those teams at the very, very top, and we've more looked at the teams who are projected to be really good.
26:08
They struggle for whatever reason, and all of a sudden you get to May and it's like, whoa, we've got a Ole Miss at 100 to 1 like two years ago, or whoa, TCU is 66 to 1.
26:18
They end up making it to Omaha, uh, like they did a season ago.
26:21
So if we're going away from the top of the board here, who's a team like that that was expected to be really good, has unimpressed for whatever reason, but still has the talent, you believe, to get hot at the right time?
26:33
I mean, I know I just said you look at a team like LSU. Wake Forest, they had really high expectations too. I think both of those teams are gonna be in the field of 64, and I mean, who's to say they can't catch fire?
26:47
I like Wake Forest a little bit more just because they're led by Chase Burns. Their pitching staff is, is really good.
26:53
Not to say that Lou Coleman and LSU, Gage Jump, they're, they're pretty good too, but I feel like it's an easier path for Wake getting through the ACC and climbing up the polls.
27:04
That was a team that kind of fell off earlier in the season and have worked them- themselves back in.
27:09
But then you've got a couple outliers like, uh, East Carolina, which to me is the best mid-major team in college baseball right now, backed by starting pitcher Trey Savage and Zach Rood.
27:21
This team is really swinging the bat well. They've got the deep pitching staff to contend with any Power Five school.
27:27
And then staying in the SEC, you've got a team like Mississippi State, which I think they were 60 to 1, uh, just yesterday. Six to one to make the College World Series. I know that was a market you really liked too.
27:38
This pitching staff is good and, I mean, Chris Lemonis has proved that he can win when, when it's time to win. And if he gets into the regional, uh, hosting picture,
27:49
I really like, uh, the Bulldogs to make some noise, especially if they end up winning the series against Arkansas this weekend. That, those odds are gonna shift a lot.
27:57
Yep, that's a great, uh, that's a great call mentioning Wake Forest. 14 to 1 preseason favorites at a lot of books. East Carolina 20 to 1, and then Mississippi State, I'm now seeing, Matt, uh, 50 to 1 at DraftKings.
28:07
What do you make of their series against the second favorite right now on the odds board, Arkansas, who's six to one, but just dropped a series to eighth ranked Kentucky? And there were some issues on the pitching side.
28:17
Their second and third weekend starters struggled, and there was even some talk of, well, could maybe Dave Van Horn shake things up?
28:23
Doesn't sound like they will, but makes for a really interesting series this weekend there in Fayetteville. Yeah, it does.
28:29
It was also finals week, so he, he barred all the players from getting to come into the facility and work out. I think it was just a, a chance for them to get their mind right.
28:39
Brady Tygart, Mason Molino, like you said, they both have struggled. This is still a very good pitching staff. They're the number one pitching staff in the country. Hitting has always been a problem.
28:48
They're, they're 70-- They have a 70 weighted runs created plus on the road, but 120 at home. Uh, for those that aren't familiar, that's 30% worse than average on the road, 20% better at home. Crazy.
29:02
Which I, I feel like you could say that if you just blindly bet college baseball, if you took the home team, I think you'd be hitting at, like, 65%, up 42 units or something like that.
29:13
So it's not-- We're, we're not, like, creating anything crazy. It's just backing the home team. Typically, you're playing better at home, and I feel like you could say that for a lot of college sports, but- No question.
29:25
Yeah, it's gonna be a big series. I do feel like Arkansas gets right in this one.
29:29
Uh, I feel like it's gonna go Arkansas wins with Hagen Smith on the mound, and then they're gonna drop one tomorrow with Jur- uh, Jurangelo Sangey, and then win with Mason Molino on Sunday.
29:41
Hagen Smith about a $3 favorite. He's been one of the, arguably the best pitcher in college baseball with his numbers this season, uh, there for the Hogs, as we're talking college baseball with Matt Grissom.
29:49
He also does great work for College Baseball Insiders. Go to collegebaseballinsiders.com.
29:53
They have a lot of great tools for individual props, game lines, a lot of really, uh, cool deep dive things you can look at as a college baseball bettor.
30:01
You know, the big topic I want to get to that has really been a big storyline this season, Matt, compared to in years past, and it's kind of been brewing with some success of the ACC teams, but it's been the growth of that league in general.
30:11
And as much as the SEC has always been conference number one when it comes to college baseball, and this year they have the top three teams in the odds board with A&M, Arkansas, Tennessee, all sub 10 to one.
30:21
But you look a little bit further down, we have a huge series this weekend, uh, as Wake Forest, who you've already mentioned, is in action. They're at home against Clemson. Clemson 12 to 1 to win it all.
30:31
Wake's at 14 to 1. Kelly Bid hugs, Florida State Seminoles, 15 to 1. Duke is back really strong at 15 to 1. Just how good do you really believe this ACC has grown into, especially over the past year or two?
30:43
I mean, I would put them right up there with the, uh, with the SEC. I think it's A, like, 1A, 1B. You look at the depth, though, like the tier two, tier three teams in both the ACC and SEC.
30:55
Your Georgia, which we saw last night, take South Carolina to the woodshed behind Charlie Condon. Uh, they're right there with, like, uh, Virginia and North Carolina. Duke Duke is really good.
31:08
I mean, that was a play I gave out there for Kelly, uh, on a numbers game a few months ago. Like- Yep... Duke with Jonathan Santucci, they were mispriced. This is, this is a very deep conference. It...
31:20
But on the flip side, just like the SEC, these teams cannibalize each other.
31:24
So you look at their overall record, they may be, you know, 32 and 15 or whatever, but they're, they're playing the best of the best week in and week out, which I just feel like builds you up for the post-season.
31:37
As far as today then, so we look at the, the first of Clemson-Wake Forest matchup, 6:00 Eastern. It's Wake out to -185 there. You talk about how the home teams have been very successful. Wake is at home.
31:47
Either that or anything else really stand out to you as far as series openers, which in general for people who don't track college baseball, can be the most consistent to bet since you have ace versus ace on these Friday night games.
31:58
Yeah, so I'm backing the Florida Gators at home. They're even money right now. They're taking on a red hot Kentucky team who's coming off, I feel like they're a little fat and happy right now.
32:07
They came off the big series win against Arkansas last week. I, I just, the analytics say that Kentucky should not be this good, and eventually I feel like they're gonna regress.
32:17
Florida has, has all the talent in the world. They've not been able to put it together, both on the mound, in their line-up, getting some situational hitting.
32:25
But Pierce Coppola, that's a name, if you have not watched, he's a hard-throwing lefty. Dude's like eight feet tall. This, he's got the stuff, and his SIERA and xFIP are very good.
32:36
I feel like Florida at even money is a really good play. Uh, LSU, another team I talked about earlier, with Gage Jump on the mound, taking on Alabama. Uh, I feel like the Tigers are clicking right now.
32:49
I got them at -105. And then Vanderbilt, +115. They're taking on Tennessee. Bryce Cunningham splits are astronomically different from how he performs in Nashville versus on the road. This is the battle for Tennessee.
33:03
Vanderbilt's in desperation mode right now, dropping two of their last three series, I believe. Uh, Tennessee's red hot, the number one team in the country.
33:11
As you know as a baseball fan, this is a curse, and I don't know if Tony Vitello really wants to be number one overall. I wouldn't be surprised if Tennessee gives up and has a scheduled loss this weekend.
33:23
So take the Commodores plus money against the Vols. Great stuff, Matt. We'll have you on a bunch here as we ramp up toward the college baseball post-season. We'll be back with you Sunday on Live Bet Sunday.
33:34
Matt, great to see you as always, man. Enjoy the weekend of baseball. Awesome, guys. Thanks for having me. We'll have our best bets as we wrap up the show right after this.
33:41
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:54
The NBA playoffs are heating up, and so is the action at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner to the NBA. New customers bet five bucks to get 150 in bonus bets instantly.
34:04
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now and use code V-S-I-N. That's only on DraftKings. The crown is yours. Back for the final time from Bar Canada at The D with Kelly Bidlin, I'm Ben Wilson.
34:15
A big thanks to our whole crew here at The D with our technical directors, Matt Hicks, Dakota Martin, Justin Monteith helping out as well on graphics, and our guests for today, Paul Carr on the Premier League, Lou Finoccharo on UFC and the NHL, Adam Burke on MLB, and Matt Grissom, great as always on college baseball.
34:29
I know you were checking out his site, uh, Kelly. He, he's a contributor to collegebaseballinsiders.com, which has really turned into almost like the Ken Pom equivalent, uh, for college baseball.
34:38
Just awesome, uh, pretty much free- Yeah... deep dive info, statistically, uh, analytically, on all these top teams, which is a great resource. It, it- Yeah... really is impressive. Go check it out.
34:47
I think if you're trying to handicap college baseball on a daily basis, this is, uh...
34:51
I think Matt, Matt's one of those guys that I, you know, I'll do the promoting for him because I spent about four minutes, uh, just searching around the site and looking at some different things, some really, really impressive stuff up here.
35:01
And I think you're, uh, the Ken Pom comparison is probably pretty fair.
35:05
I think that is, uh, what they're building up to here, some great matchup, uh, stats and some adv- advanced analytics that just I know for years, for some of you guys that were always talking college baseball and c- bet- betting college baseball, uh, you know, needing more access to information- Sure...
35:20
like this, feels like, you know, whenever we go and talk live golf or something like that [laughs] Like, I, I don't know. We don't have any stats. Like- It was always a feel thing, and you could kind of...
35:28
You know, if you followed it, you could get by because you were- Right... looking at it every day.
35:31
But this, I, I've always felt just sort of like gives you that, that, that feel of the actual data you have to support some of those beliefs. Mm-hmm.
35:38
And it's not just as random as like, "Oh, well, I test, I think, this." And it might be totally different than, [laughs] than what you see sometimes. Um- Is there any sport like you feel like you still bet that way?
35:49
I test only? Because man, I, I'm just so, I'm so- Not really... data supported now, it's like hard for me to even- No... trying to think of what I would even [laughs] or when I would even do that. But I, it's very rare.
36:01
Actually, for me, it's probably NCAA tournament. Once we get into the NCAA tournament- That's funny... okay, I've seen a couple hot games these guys.
36:06
I actually think the c- you know, and it's weird to say this because, uh, it, it's only in specific situations, but tennis is in that weird realm where you s- like you still have situational spots where you still have the old guard that's hanging on- Yeah...
36:17
that has the pedigree, that sometimes to me the data gets baked in too much. Like Djokovic last year at the French Open was the best example of this, where the whole like, "Okay, this is the time.
36:28
The stats are indicating this is when the new guard takes over." And it was like, okay, mentally though, Novak Djokovic is the greatest mental tennis player we've ever seen. Mm-hmm.
36:39
And yet he is still being priced as like, as if the numbers behind his, you know, his late 30s slow decline are the be all, end all. And it's just not that way sometimes. So I, I sometimes get that way in tennis.
36:50
Yeah, yeah. But it's funny how that is- That's a good call... that is very specific though, where for the most part, like my, whenever I bet tennis, it's basically analytic driven. Yeah.
36:58
It's just those guys are in their own unique category, and, um, and I know Gil can talk to this, uh, speak to this as well. No, I think that makes a lot of sense. It's a very similar feel. I think that's a good example.
37:06
Yeah. Yeah, I think that's a good example. Exactly. You can't really [laughs] their greatness can't be quantified really. I mean, that's, that's what it is, right?
37:13
I, I mean, it's the I, I guess a little bit the opposite would be [laughs] I could tell you, I could read off a billion stats that show you Xander Schauffele's the second best golfer on the PGA tour.
37:23
[laughs] But WinEquity, uh, yeah How many wins does he have, though? [laughs] It ain't much. Xander, your overnight, uh, first round leader at, uh- That's right... at Wells Fargo. Sleeping on that three shot lead.
37:32
I'm sure he'll hold on. What, what did he, like, plus 150? I'm s- plus 190, yeah. Oh, boy. Oh. Don't, don't go running bet, bet, uh, boys and girls. Maybe... Yeah, maybe hold off. Maybe hold off on that.
37:41
But we do have best bets, though, for today. Uh, something I do really rely on.
37:45
I, I don't think I ever, on the flip side of this, 'cause I don't think I've ever made a baseball bet that w- [laughs] that wasn't at least somewhat backed up in Major League Baseball, uh, by some data here.
37:54
So two plays for me today. One on the baseball card, one will go across the pond to the French League to, to bet some soccer. But I'll go.
38:02
This is, you can call me a square on this one, Kelly, but this is your biggest favorite today. It's a great match-up, though, no matter how you slice it, and I wanted to get in front of this market move last night.
38:10
So I bet Tanner Houck and the Boston Red Sox at short plus money on the run line against Washington today, when they were plus 102. It's more like minus 105 now, as that Red Sox line has gone up north of $2.
38:23
But ultimately, you get Tanner Houck, who's been the biggest improvement pitcher in the league this year, largely because of the Red Sox first year pitching coach, Andrew Bailey.
38:31
Houck, a 199 ERA, but he's been backed up by a 269 xFIP with a career low walk rate. And what he's really done a great job of, his four seam fastball, very average, you could argue below average.
38:42
He's reduced the usage of that in favor of a heavy slider, splitter combo. Those two pitches individually have been really, really good.
38:49
He's pounding the zone, and now he gets a Washington National team that's bottom 10 in the league in hard hit rate, WRC plus, barrel rate.
38:56
Oh, and we get one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball going for the Nats in lefty Patrick Corbin, who's just been awful this year, an over six ERA.
39:03
It's not a, not a bet that's baked in a lot of, uh, like, a lot of deep dive data outside of that.
39:08
It's just give me one of the best pitchers in baseball, Tanner Houck, that I believe is real, uh, against a pretty fraudulent 500 team right now in the Washington Nationals. We'll take plus 102 o- on that run line.
39:18
I like it. I like it. There you go. There you go. Oh. Tanner Houck, baby. Pride of University- I don't, I was gonna say... University of Missouri. Oh, man. Sorry.
39:27
I was like, if Ben's asking me this, I can get the answer within, like, three guesses. Yeah, it's gonna be, it's gonna be one of, like- I was gonna go, like, Florida State first- That would be, yeah...
39:34
'cause I thought that's where you're going to me. But yeah, Missouri would've been within those, uh, three guesses. Would've been within the three guesses. 19 and 18 Boston, uh, tonight against 18 and 18 Washington.
39:43
Um- S- speaking of which, when am I betting Florida State? Can someone just tell me to bet Florida State already? Bet Florida State. They're good. I know, it's true. They're a good baseball team.
39:50
Come on, I w- I need a convincing argument, okay? Well, we'll, we'll, we'll wait till the... Really, I'll wait till the regional gets set, and then we'll get you some. All right.
39:58
We'll try to get a convincing argument- All right... uh, should they be a regional host there, uh, down in Tallahassee. They won't be. They'll put it in Gainesville like they always do. Right?
40:06
Or am I just getting angry about things I don't really know about? Is that regional, regional, regional bias, uh, Kelly Bidlin over here. Um, I will also go to the soccer. Let's go to Ligue 1.
40:14
I did not make this bet just so I could say Ligue 1 on the air today, Kelly, but- I, I really don't believe you... I- I actually don't believe you... as a soccer bettor...
40:20
So it's funny, if you actually, if you follow a lot of these leagues, and you make a lot of fun of me, Kelly, for the amount of, uh, content I consume, uh, in international leagues.
40:29
But the one thing you, you tend to notice trends and general stylistic things that really stand out in some of these leagues. And in Ligue 1, there is not much goal scoring.
40:37
This is a league that is amidst the lowest goal scorers in all of European soccer.
40:42
As a result, your standard total is more like two and a half, as opposed to a lot of threes or three and a halves across the rest of Europe.
40:48
And what we've had happen is so many of these two and a halves have just been cash cows to the unders, that books really juiced them up. They were getting to the minus 140, 150 prices.
40:58
But then recently, over the last week or two, maybe because it's, you know, end of the season, you have some teams who are on, uh, you know, on, on Ibiza time as a- Yeah, yeah... you know, in, in Europe.
41:07
Some higher goal scoring totals have happened, which has kind of deflated these under, the under juice you're having to lay back down to a very reasonable, and probably too good, of numbers at this point.
41:18
So I'm gonna go back to a, a tried and true formula I've looked at. It's Nice, who have the number one defense in the French League this season. They've allowed 25 goals in 34 matches so far, or 32 matches so far.
41:29
They've been ridiculous. Against the bottom seven scoring teams this year at home, Nice have played seven matches against those teams, allowed three total goals. Okay. Like, they're just a great defensive team.
41:40
Nice can- Going up against Lee Harvey today. Uh, Lee Harvey, yes. Uh, Lahav. [laughs] Or Lee Harvey, as, uh, as... Were you gonna, you gonna add a last name to that or are you gonna stick with Lee Harvey?
41:49
[laughs] No, just Lee Harvey. Uh, ag- Just Lee Harvey... against Lahav. So I want situations where both teams have motivation, right? And something Paul Carr talked on earlier in the show.
41:58
You want teams at this point, uh, that it's not gonna be loose and wide open. Nice is hanging on to the final European place. They're fifth in the league. Lahav's three points up on the final spot to avoid relegation.
42:09
Both teams- Wow. Okay... uh, very much have a lot to play for. This is coming up today, 3:00 PM Eastern Time from the Allianz Riviera, uh, there on the south coast of France.
42:18
So look at the under two and a half minus 113. Uh, that's a spot if you shop around, you can find in the 113, 115 range. A super fair price. If anything, it, that should probably m- be more like a minus 125, 130.
42:31
But because Lahav, who are, uh, one of the worst goal scoring teams in the league, they've scored six combined their last two games, which is like a full season- Whoa... for them.
42:39
Uh, because of that recent explosion in goals, you're seeing a, a much more reduced price on what you have t- to lay- Okay... for the under two and a half today. So that's where I'm going back. Tried and true.
42:49
Where is, uh... W- when in... W- how many more weeks of all of the European soccer leagues? Like, do they all end the same week? Uh, pretty much. Some are a little bit more staggered.
42:59
So some have, like, in France, they play 34 matches. There's, there's 18 teams, so they play the 17 opponents twice. Uh, England is a little bit longer since you have 20 teams, so it's 38 matches. Gotcha.
43:10
So it's a little bit, uh, kind of depends on the league. But for the most part, they'll all be wrapped up before the Champions League final, which is June 1st. Okay, got it.
43:17
So within the next two to three weeks we're done. Something, I guess, to just double check, uh, if you're, especially if you're making bets on relegation or something like that. Yeah. Right? Yeah.
43:26
Just to, you got to [laughs] definitely know when the league ends. I love that. Lee Harvey, that's great. [laughs] Lee Harvey, uh, had a stretch of 12 straight matches with one goal or less scored.
43:34
Yeah, we just kind of spelled it wrong. We r- you know, we just missed a couple H's. Yeah, Lahav. Yeah. That is true. That is correct. Nice and Lahav. Uh, so those are my bets for today.
43:43
Red Sox run line plus one or two over the Nats. Nice, Lahav under two and a half at minus 113. Uh, you have the Timberwolves tonight, right, Kelly? I do have the Timberwolves. That's your best bet?
43:51
Yes, I bet them, uh, when I thought Jamal Murray was probably gonna be suspended, but I still like the Timberwolves tonight.
43:56
I think that's interesting that there has not been much movement in this line, um, since the announcement that Jamal Murray's going to be in.
44:05
Uh, uh, at four and a half, I think I'd still l- I'd still lean to the Timberwolves. The other one that, uh, in the Knicks-Pacers, uh, also tonight, I think I'm going to be playing Donte DiVincenzo over- 20 and a half...
44:17
either over his points or over his threes. Yeah. I haven't decided yet. [laughs] Um, tough beat last night on Donovan Mitchell not getting over 29 and a half. Settles with 29. Ah. We're done.
44:27
If you're listening on radio, Gojo and Golick next. If you're watching on VSAN, it is best bets coming up next.
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