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May 12, 2025
A Numbers Game | May 12, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 12, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:36
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story. They always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. 150 izzle. It's Gil Alexander.
0:20
It's Kelly Bidlin, everybody, producer number nine. So much more than a producer. Hey. How you doing? Great. Fantastic. Yeah. I- Big week... sound sincere. Big week. Let's go. Uh, this is, let's see.
0:32
We get tweets at Beating The Book. This is from Xavier82, "Before this loss to the Rockies, I put the win total at 23 for the Padres out of a total 26 games to be played." Wow, he's more bullish than I was.
0:43
"If another team gets to 24 wins, it's over, but now with the L, definitely n- need to make up the loss to get to 23 now." I have the same calculus, but I had them at 20 and 6. Now I have them at 19 and 7.
0:55
I think, uh, Xavier has really, uh, really got a, uh, a exploding record there. Uh, this is from, let's see, there were some others on this as well. This is from the, oh, Jensen Lewis before the show.
1:08
By The Books, Jensen Lewis, co-host of, uh, By The Books with Dave Ross before this show. He added to the Padres 18 to 1 and the Cubs 19 to 1 on the show this morning. Mid-May wins bets from Jensen as well.
1:21
Oh, he did that this morning? Yes, did that this morning. He even did the Padres that long still? Wow. Yeah, and the Cubs, by the way, who I would say are the two f- are the two co-favorites right now. Uh, Superjerk.
1:31
Hey, it's our buddy Superjerk. Yeah. Chillin' back here. Former, formerly angriest guy in New Jersey, then angriest guy in Kentucky. Now he just goes by Superjerk.
1:39
Superjerk says, "Gil, I wouldn't watch The Today Show if you tied me to a chair and cut my eyelids off." [laughs] He goes on to say, "If I was a guest on the Today Show, I would not watch the Today Show. You follow me?"
1:50
I think I do follow you. Uh, SpartyKY, "I heard someone say on your show the US had the second-most cardinals there to vote. What country had the most? It was Italy, right?" Oh, man. Or am I incorrect about that?
2:02
Let's see what Google has to say. Maybe I'm incorrect about that. Kelly is currently Googling. Nah, we, we got Wes Reynolds on hold. I bet you he knows. He knows, ladies and gentlemen, better than Google.
2:11
Wes Reynolds, part of the glue that holds this whole operation together. You can follow him on Twitter @WesReynolds1. That's the number one. Wes, of course, co-host of Long Shots as well.
2:20
Who had the, who had most cardinal representation in the conclave? We're such jerks. Well, I, uh, at first I was stricken by the, uh, angry guy from Long Island. Apparently, he's a Good Morning America guy.
2:31
[laughs] And, and, and not a Today- That's right... and not a Today Show guy. That's right. Uh-huh. Uh, in, in terms of this, I don't know, so I'm gonna guess right offhand. Uh, second most cardinals, I am going to say,
2:43
I'm gonna say Germany. Really? Wow, okay. Germany, really? Wow. Okay, maybe not- Uh, after Italy. I don't have the number on Italy- After, yeah, after Italy...
2:51
but the US had 10, second highest behind Italy is what Google tells you. Yeah, had to be Italy. Had to be Italy. It's a home game for Italy- Okay... is what it is with. Uh, Italy followed by the US. Yes.
3:01
Um, did you see Conclave, by the way? Did you see that movie? I have not. Oh, yeah. It's pretty good. Pretty good movie. I enjoyed it.
3:08
I en- I wish I had, again, as I was lamenting last week, I wish that I had watched it earlier, so then my brain would've clicked in at some point and said, "Oh, I should probably take what I've learned from this movie and try to apply it to an actual bet."
3:22
Maybe I would've been part of that, uh, amazing, uh, betting, you know, wins f- that, that folks had betting on a US pope or specifically on the gentleman that did become the pope.
3:33
And by the way, they found footage of him now. You see this? The 2005 World- Oh, yeah, it's all coming out now... 2005 World Series between the White, it was the White Sox.
3:41
That was the year the White Sox won, and he's in the stands rooting for his White Sox. Chicago Bob, what a story. What are the chances of that, that they, uh, that they have a camera on him? I don't know.
3:49
[laughs] It's amazing. Um- No, I was watching CNN that day and they just, like, were randomly pulling, like, uh, people off the street for interviews, you know? Yeah.
3:57
They're in front, they're in front of, uh, I'm forgetting the name of the church, but a really famous Catholic church in, in Philadelphia, and like, they just randomly found an old, an old, uh, like, roommate of his from Villanova.
4:08
He's like, "Oh, yeah, I know him. Yeah, yeah, yeah." Yeah. It's like, wow, okay, this is the, this is the pope we're talking about. Kinda, kinda cool.
4:14
Uh, all right, Wes, uh, before we get to golf, let's talk about your Indiana Pacers. Uh, I saw you tweeting about it, uh, with the #yes sirs, uh, hashtag. You, you must be over the moon here.
4:25
Are you allowing yourself to think this is going to happen, they are gonna advance here? I am allowing myself to think this is gonna happen, but I know it's not going to be easy.
4:34
Now, it's gonna depend on if the, if Donovan Mitchell is gonna play on Tuesday night for, uh, for game number five. If he's not, then I feel very good about the Pacers.
4:42
But look, two things can, I think, be true in this series.
4:47
One, the Cleveland Cavaliers are not 100% in terms of health, and two, the Indiana Pacers are a horrible matchup for the Cleveland Cavaliers, and I think, uh, that bore fruit last night.
4:57
Uh, on Friday night, what really turned the game was when, uh, uh, Kenny Atkinson in Cleveland went to that 3-2 zone, and the Pacers couldn't hit any shots.
5:06
I think they were, like, 0 of 11 from three in the second quarter and only scored, like, 13 points, uh, or 13 or 15, I can't remember right offhand.
5:14
But nevertheless, they got outscored by 20 in the second quarter, and the game was pretty much a wrap.
5:20
But what happens is these, the, these coaches, uh, d- despite what many people might think, 'cause I know a lot of people, the NBA gets a lot of grief, and rightfully so, with the load management and all that stuff, but I think a lot of fans and a lot of outside viewers out there kind of think, "These guys in the NBA, like, these coaches don't really coach.
5:38
Like, they just kind of roll the basketballs out and just kind of like, you know, sit on the sidelines and just chat everybody up."
5:44
No, they make adjustments, and Rick Carlisle did last night, and, and we knew he scored 80 points in a half, and they're up 80 to 39.
5:53
The, you know, it was great shooting, but it was also getting great looks, and it was also making adjustments against, uh, what the Cavs were trying to do defensively.
6:00
And I, I just thought Cleveland got dispirited very early. Uh, even after the Matherin ejection, it, it was kind of like, "Okay, is this a momentum killer for the Pacers?" 'Cause I was like, "Man, that's really stupid.
6:12
Like, what are you doing? You know, they need you." Yeah. And apparently they didn't need him because they, they absolutely ran him out.
6:18
And I just think you got a connected group right now with the Pacers, and these guys have now played together a couple years, this core, and this was the fourth best record in the NBA since January 1st.
6:28
Uh, I know I've, uh, belabored that point, but it is, and, and that tells me that they can compete with anybody. And, uh, you know, still gotta get one done.
6:37
Don't wanna, uh, you know, count it yet, and Rick Carlisle even said that in the post-game presser last night. He was like, you know, "We haven't done anything yet."
6:44
I do feel like Rick Carlisle, not to get into sports talk radio conversation, but I, I do feel like- He's maybe as underrated a career coach as there is. Took the Mavericks to the title, obviously.
6:56
I feel like if the Pacers get to the finals, let's say, all of a sudden his place in history becomes etched in a way that it hasn't been. Yep. Would you agree with that? Yeah, 100%.
7:10
Uh, you know, won, won the title with Dallas, has always been a really good coach. Of course, uh, him and Larry Bird were old buddies back from the Boston Celtics teams, and Larry Bird was former coach of the Pacers.
7:22
Actually, the last time they got to the finals, he was the coach in 2000, and was the team president for many years. So, so it wasn't like, okay, he's doing his buddy a favor.
7:31
Rick Carlisle can really coach and, and has a very good staff, and he has got a bunch of guys that have bought in right now. And just Cleveland, I think they gotta be scratching their head, you know, "What are we doing?"
7:41
Because they're kinda... You could sense they were getting frustrated, where they're getting a lit- a little bit out of character for this team that won 64 games.
7:49
And, and, uh, you win 64 games, that's legitimate, but the playoffs are always a different bird. And, and it doesn't always, you know, go towards, like, what the regular season produced.
8:00
And you look at some of these series where it's like, okay, Oklahoma City should lay over Denver, and they lay over 'em in every way.
8:06
But most of these games, save for that blowout in game two, have been absolutely competitive and down to the wire.
8:11
Yeah, he also got fired the year before the Pistons won it all in 2004, so what could've been there as well.
8:17
Uh- He's, he's an interesting guy in, in NBA's history and how you hear NBA people talk about him, because he's... I, I, I think there's a lot of respect around- A lot... the league for him.
8:27
A lot, but the general- He rubs people the wrong way, though, often. Like, that kinda got him out of, out of town in Dallas, and... Like, he coaches hard, Wes, right?
8:35
I mean, he's a guy that he's gonna be in your face, and if you're gonna be young players, you gotta be willing to be coached up by him. And, and it seems to all be clicking in Indiana. It just- Yeah.
8:44
Look, he's n- he's not a, he's not a screamer or anything, but he has that, like, you know, sarcasm almost- Right... where, where he can, like... You know, he's very, he's very short.
8:53
He's very curt sometimes with guys, and sometimes that, that personality can grate on people, but, uh, hasn't done it so far for the Pacers. All while looking just like Jim Carrey.
9:03
[laughs] I just think, I just think we give, like, you know, Phil Jackson here, you have Michael Jordan for six seasons, then you have Shaq and Kobe. It's like, "Oh, he's the greatest coach of all time," and we don't...
9:11
I just don't know why we don't make that extra layer of assessment in the NBA.
9:15
By the way, as we've sat here, uh, Wes, in the first hour of this show, the Pacers have gone, at least to the w- book that I'm looking at, they've gone from a seven-and-a-half-point dog tomorrow night in game five back in Cleveland to an eight-point dog.
9:27
You taking the points? I'm tempted to. Uh, we, we don't know. I, I'm assuming that Donovan Mitchell, and you never wanna assume with all these injuries, but I'm assuming he's gonna go in an elimination game here- Yeah...
9:40
where, you know, there, there's no tomorrow for this team. You would think that, that he would play. But Garland, they played him in those blowout minutes.
9:48
They played him those extra minutes in the third last night, because this was kinda essentially his first full game back. 'Cause remember, he got in foul trouble on Friday night and, and didn't play very much.
9:58
So it's like, okay, we gotta get him some minutes and kinda get him back into, quote-unquote, "game shape."
10:04
Uh, Mobley missed game two with that, with that sprained ankle, so you know, they, they, they're not 100% healthy. I, I think that's a big ask to lay eight here. Any other plays in the NBA either tonight or tomorrow?
10:16
Uh, I'm gonna go, uh, with the, with the bounce-back game, uh, perhaps for Jalen Brunson with the Knicks. I like the over threes, uh, over three, three, three-point makes tonight.
10:26
And then I'm gonna keep going against Tatum until he clears it. Uh, everybody was betting Jayson Tatum on Saturday.
10:32
You know, you get those tweets, like, what are the most popular props, and inevitably they're always the superstars, right? So they played Jayson Tatum over. That game became a blowout. He only ends up with 22.
10:42
He's back at 27 and a half again. I know he shot the three better in the Garden on Saturday, but I, I, I... Until he can do that in this series, I'm gonna play under Jayson Tatum points.
10:52
Yeah, the thing with the Celtics-Knicks too is I, I feel like there is some sentiment like, "Oh, see, that was the Celtics.
10:57
That game three thing with the Celtics and making the threes, that's their, that's their real thing." I don't know.
11:01
Maybe the truth lies somewhere in between their horrible three performances, three-point shooting performances, let me be clear, in games one and two and what happened yesterday. Yeah, somewhere in between 25 and 50%?
11:10
Yeah, yeah. I agree, yes. Yeah. [laughs] I think that's fair to say. Somewhere in between. Yes. Yes. Um- Tatum, man, I... And Wes, I, I can't hate on the bet. I almost texted you, but I, you were...
11:18
I knew your business this weekend. I'm like, as soon as I saw him miss his second m- uh, f- uh, layup, I'm, I'm like, "What's going on? What is going on?" Just stick to the threes, I guess, Tatum.
11:26
You can't make a layup, dude. I got the Knicks tonight. I think I'm doing the Knicks in the contest. Carl Sachs saying the best play on the board is the under in this one at 208.
11:34
First of two tonight in the National Basketball Association. Wes will join us for a second segment.
11:38
We'll talk golf, not only the, uh, the tournament that was with Sepp Straka, uh, winning the Truist by two strokes, but also of course the PGA Championship this week from Quail Hollow.
11:48
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Want to know where the money is really going?
12:03
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12:09
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12:14
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12:18
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12:28
That's $9.99 for your first month at vsin.com/subscribe. You know, uh, so Kelly, just, uh, between you and me, this kid from Israel, Ben Saraf, supposed to be a first-round draft pick.
12:42
And then from Michigan, of course, uh, the great Danny Wolf- Mm... supposed to be a, uh, top 15 pick. The record for highest drafted tribesman in the history of the NBA, do you know who it is and what number?
12:54
Is it, is it not Deni? It's Deni. Deni Avdija. Oh, okay. [laughs] Ninth- Thought you were setting me up for a trick question... by the Wizards. No, no, no, no trick.
13:00
Deni Avdija, the mark to beat For those of us- Gill's guy right there... for those of us who are interested in those kinds of things. Ble- uh, it's Gill's guy right there. I- That's my guy.
13:09
Do you remember I came back from vacation one year, uh, one year, and I'm like, "You don't know the most important thing that happened during vacation." [laughs] This was last, last year. And I was so confused.
13:15
I'm like, "What?" It was like, "Danny Abdi dropped 43." [laughs] Um, and the record is 50 for this category. Do you think it... No, never mind. I won't, I won't go there.
13:24
Um- I, I know you're re- I know you're still looking for that golf market to be, uh, set up as well. Yeah. Yeah. No, well, you can't put the market, he can't put the market up.
13:31
[laughs] I understand, but if it were my sportsbook, I would put the market up. Anyway, Wes, you know what I'm talking about. [laughs] Wes Reynolds, everybody, rejoins us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
13:38
Again, @wesreynolds1. That's the number one on Twitter. Co-host of Long Shots. It's called Long Shots. Uh, did you have Sepp Straka, sir, at the Truist? Not for the win. I had him in a placement market.
13:51
He was one of my last leaveoffs. I only, I only played four outrights last week with about a 70-player field. But, uh, had him earlier this year at the American Express. Didn't go back for seconds, unfortunately.
14:03
But, uh, it, y- you knew it was kind of a three-guy tournament there at the end. It was him and Shane Lowry. Shane Lowry's still trying to win on the PGA Tour. It's been several years since he's won here in the States.
14:13
He, of course, run at Portrush, uh, won the Claret Jug for The Open Championship, uh, a few years ago. And by the way, that's where The Open is this year, again at Royal Portrush.
14:22
Uh, but, and then Justin Thomas was kind of lurking. I had Patrick Cantlay, who had a pretty darn good round on Sunday. But Patrick Cantlay does what Patrick Cantlay does when I bet him. He's out of it.
14:32
[laughs] And then all of a sudden you see him, like, birdie three of the first four holes. Of course. And it's like, "Here we go. He's got a run," and, you know, gets it, get, gets in the back door in the top five.
14:41
But, uh, uh, didn't, didn't unfortunately get there.
14:44
But I thought that that course, by the way, even though it played like four different courses it seemed like over four days with just the setups, Philadelphia Cricket Club I thought was a nice addition to the PGA Tour because it was hosting this event.
14:56
Because what usually hosts that event is Quail Hollow, which is where we are for the PGA this week. Okay. By the way, Straka won that by two strokes over both Justin Thomas, who you had, Caleb. Yeah, that was a play.
15:06
And Shane Lowry. Four-stroke lead over Cantlay, Fleetwood, and Jacob Bridgeman. Bridgeman play- uh, he had another great tournament for him. Yeah, that was tough. I had JT down the stretch.
15:15
He just, ah, man, blew it on the par fives all week, uh, is really where he left some shots.
15:19
Hey, it's kind of funny you say that, Wes, 'cause that was my biggest takeaway too, of like, I don't know if this course was great or not, because it looked like four different courses every day with how the weather, uh, was going.
15:29
But, um, yeah, b- a big event for Straka, and then you hit it with Lowry. Man, I don't know that I've seen...
15:35
I, I don't, I don't know how much interest I would've had him, in, in him this week, but man, d- did Shane Lowry look like he took that loss harder than I have seen him kind of take anything before.
15:44
It was really, really bad. L- really, uh, him on 18 looked like he was just kind of broken. I don't know how you feel about him heading into this week. Yeah.
15:52
Like, when you see your buddy, you know, and of course he's happy for him, 'cause remember, he was the first guy greenside, or greenside to greet Rory McIlroy at the Masters.
16:00
And, you know, that, that's one of his best friends in the game, and he's happy for him that he accomplished that. But it's like, you know, "What about me?" You know? I, I want to accomplish something too.
16:09
I'm out here playing and grinding and competing. So I think he thought he had it, you know? And, and, uh, just wasn't able to, uh, to finish it off.
16:18
Uh, a great putting week, by the way, for, uh, Sepp Straka, and that's what led him to another victory. Okay. It is the PGA Championship. It is the second major of the golf calendar.
16:27
Uh, PGA Championship used to be at the end of the calendar, but a few years back they switched it up. So PGA Championship now coming to us in May. It's at Quail Hollow this year.
16:36
Um, and Wes, it is Quail Hollow, by the way, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
16:40
Uh, unlike most weeks here on the show where you sort of say, "Well, we're gonna, you know, it's all gonna be on long shots," I understand that your, uh, that most of your picks are gonna be on the podcast.
16:47
But, uh, if we could open it up just a little bit in, in, uh, in celebration of the fact that it's a major. Give us some thoughts, some preliminary thoughts on this event and where your bets might be headed.
16:58
Yeah, it's gonna be a big boy golf course.
17:00
Uh, 7,600 yards, as a matter of fact, here at Quail Hollow, where by the way, Justin Thomas back in 2017 did win here at Quail Hollow, the, his first of two PGA Championships that he has won.
17:12
So he's gonna get a lot of support this week.
17:14
And, and what you mentioned, Gil, about the calendar, this is a little bit different, and I'll include that in, in my trends portion of, uh, the column, which will be out tomorrow morning, early afternoon at vsin.com.
17:26
This, of course, back in I believe, I think it was 2019, where they moved this, 'cause it used to be called Glory's Last Shot, the last major of the year for PGA.
17:35
And it used to be in August, and now it is moved up to May.
17:38
And ever since it's been moved up to May, four of the last five winners of the PGA Championship, by the way, did finish in the top 10 at the Masters the month prior.
17:49
So now you have some, albeit a short-term sample size, you have a little bit of context here where you're seeing, okay, guys that play well at the Masters are probably gonna play well at the PGA, and that's what we've seen over the last few years.
18:01
So who are the guys that played well at the Masters? Rory, uh, Scottie Scheffler, of course. They're the two favorites. And then there's another guy who I did play. I played at 14 to 1.
18:10
I still think you can get some 12 out there. Uh, Bryson DeChambeau, who, you know, tied for fifth. He was in that final pairing with Rory. Didn't get it going.
18:19
Well, he did take the lead, because Rory, uh, you know, messed up out of the gate on Sunday, and then eventually got well behind where he was kind of out of it.
18:27
So I think Bryson might be looking for redemption if, and if you want a guy on a big boy golf course at 7,600 yards, why not get the longest hitter on the tour? And that's Bry- or on the, really in the world.
18:38
I say on the tour. He's not on the PGA Tour anymore. But anywho, he's h- the longest driver of the golf ball. So, you know, Bryson DeChambeau I think makes a lot of sense here. He has been obviously in the mix in majors.
18:49
Won at Pinehurst last summer, right in the state of North Carolina at the US Open. Was a contender, of course, at the Masters. Was a contender at the PGA last year.
18:59
Finished runner-up to Xander Schauffele at Valhalla in Louisville. So Bryson's gonna be, I think, a fixture in the majors, even though this LIV preparation has been very questionable.
19:08
Because they had to go to Mexico City, and then they had to go all the way to South Korea be- you know, be- before the major, where Bryson, by the way, won.
19:16
So I think he's a guy that you're gonna want on your card this week for sure. Yeah. It's, it's, it's interesting, because you were just saying how, you know, this
19:25
This tournament was all about, you know, once they moved its big names. So if you go back to 2017, so this is even before they moved it. So 2017, these are the list of the winners of the PGA Championship.
19:36
2017 was Justin Thomas, 2018 was Brooks Koepka. Then they moved it in terms of the calendar, they moved it to May. 2019, Koepka again.
19:45
2020, the pandemic year, was Collin Morikawa at, uh, TPC Harding Park at San Francisco. Then it was Mickelson in 2021, JT in 2022, Koepka again in 2023, and Xander last year. So it's really been a who's who.
19:57
And remember, before that stretch, it was like the Jimmy Walkers and the Jason Dufners and the Y-E-S famously against [laughs]- Mm-hmm... uh, Tiger Woods. It was all those kinds of guys, right?
20:08
Like, and so this is, uh, it, it is a different animal for sure. Yeah, it is. Uh, and y- you mentioned those names. Rich Beem, Sean O'Keefe. So yeah, you would get some outliers I, I, I think win this event.
20:21
And, you know, at the PGA you get a different course every year, but... And, and some years you get scoring.
20:27
It was 21 under, by the way, was the winner last year with Xander, and then you've had five and six and seven under. So it's, it's a unique deal.
20:35
You gotta handicap the weather obviously, but this is, this is a long course. This is 7,600 yards, and it's a par 71 as well. Uh, it's very straightforward and, and that's why I think you're gonna wanna look at distance.
20:48
You're gonna wanna look at the iron play, strokes gained approach. You're doing that pretty much every week. Uh, par five scoring, gotta take advantage of the par fives here. So this is a familiar course for these guys.
20:59
I mean, granted, they'll try to grow out the rough a little bit, but it doesn't play like a US Open, where it's like, okay, if you're right around par, that's gonna be a good score.
21:08
You will be able to score on this course for sure. Shameless plug, Gil, Wes, Matt, and I will be recording, uh, Long Shots. We'll be live on YouTube tomorrow, uh, 11:00 AM Pacific Time, around there.
21:19
We'll be hitting live on YouTube. We record and that'll be re-aired, uh, overnights on VSiN leading up to the tournament. Uh, I like your play on DeChambeau, uh, Wes. I have only one bet so far.
21:29
I did bet Justin Thomas over the weekend, uh, at 22 to one. I was hoping I was gonna get better number than what was gonna get reposted at, but it looks like there are 22s out there. I like JT.
21:39
Bryson, I was hoping to get something a little longer than that, but you're right, man, all the books were caught up, uh, over the week.
21:45
I think this is setting up, if you're a golf fan, I think we're gonna get another great major.
21:49
If you're a big golf betting fan, I don't know that my card's gonna be very long, because I think we are gonna see one of these top guys win it.
21:57
H- how do you feel about that, just kind of early thoughts as we're get- you're getting your card together? I think we might have another Rory and Bryson showdown- Yeah... in a major.
22:06
[laughs] That's how it's shaping up when I look at the trends and some of the stats, at least early on, and they're right up there at the top. And you know what? If it is, great. That's great for the viewer. Mm-hmm.
22:15
Not necessarily for the bettor, as you mentioned, but take advantage of, of the, uh, placement markets.
22:20
Go with the top 20s, go with the top 30s this week because there will be some guys under the radar that play very well, but maybe just don't quite have enough to beat the big boys at the end.
22:30
Scheffler four to one, Rory plus 450 to win it, Bryson DeChambeau 12 to one, Jon Rahm 16 to one, and only Xander, JT, Oberer, and Morikawa shorter than 30 to one besides those golfers. Thank you, Wes. Appreciate it, man.
22:45
You bet, guys. Thank you. Wes Reynolds right here on the show. College baseball with Matt Grissom. His thoughts headed into the conference tournaments next. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Wanna know where the money is really going?
23:01
Unlike other sources, our betting splits come straight from Circa and DraftKings Sportsbooks, giving you ins- Oh, did I read that one already? Yeah, you did already. Oh, okay. It's okay. You can do it again.
23:09
It sounded familiar. Go to vsin.com. Check out the betting splits. Yeah. This is way cooler than betting splits. It's the all-in Circa Las Vegas summer package. Listen to this.
23:19
$400 all-in, two nights stay at Circa, $100 dining credit, $100 beverage credit, and your very own daybed at Stadium Swim where the party don't stop, and it don't stop. On and on and on.
23:31
All for just $400, resort fees and taxes included. This limited time offer valid for stays between May 26th and September 4th. Don't miss out locking your all-in summer package now at circalasvegas.com.
23:43
It's not a package, Gil, it's a package. That's how good it is. I mean, it's really, like, just $200, right? 'Cause you're [laughs] getting $100 right away at dining and, and, uh, beverage.
23:52
You're good at eat and you're good at drink. Breaking news. It's less than $200 'cause then you get the daybed. Yeah. It's less. I guess you could say that's a luxury. They're, they're practically giving you money.
24:02
[laughs] We did the math just now. All-in summer hotel package again. Check it out, circalasvegas.com. It is good. Again, I'm, I'm even considering getting it for a staycation- I, I have had-...
24:12
that's how, that's how good it is... multiple friends, uh, utilize it already. It is a great, great, great deal. You think, you think the word utilize is the most over-utilized word? Because all you can do- Hmm...
24:21
every time anybody uses the word utilize, you can just, just as easily use the word use. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. How about that? I, I guarantee you I'm one of those people that, uh, uses it too much then.
24:30
[laughs] That always gets me. Or- Utilizes it too much... uh, Rhodes, "The playoffs are a different bird," also known as flipping the bird to people who bet favorites. He says, [laughs] "Las Vegas five one four yo.
24:43
Come on, man. Let go, let's go to Spain. We can go to the Spanish bullfighting or see you doing some flamenco dancing. We'll have a blast." He's talking about for the, uh, Commanders-Dolphins game.
24:52
Skins fans wanted to go to Madrid. [laughs] By the way, I have been to Madrid, I have been to Spain, and I did witness bullfighting. Uh, let me just say this, it is, uh, steeped in Spanish culture.
25:01
It is, uh, one of their, their cultural, uh, hallmarks. Uh, for those who are uninitiated, it is tough the first time you watch it. Oh, I'm sure it is. It is tough. And then by the third bull, you're like, "Oh."
25:14
You just kinda get used to it, yeah. Yeah. But that was the '80s. Now I don't know if you'd be used to it by the third. I'm gonna give you one guess- Hmm... uh, what Steve Fezzik just texted me about.
25:22
Uh, he'd like to add on to what's so great about the Circa all-in summer package. Oh, I'm sure he would. Would you like to guess? Or- Yeah, no. What is it? Fireworks on Friday night, y'all.
25:30
Come on Fireworks on Friday night Fireworks. He loves fireworks. Paul M., "I listened to your complaint regarding Jones broadcasting, and I will add he is Canadian, and SGA is. 'Nuff said.
25:39
If you catch him throughout year, he plays the Canucks. I am Canuckian too, by the way. I know." Yeah. Well, you might be right about the SGA thing. I feel like he gets put on every Heat game ever. I also...
25:50
The problem with Marc Jones also is the, uh, the, "I'm... Whoa," and then SGA lacerates the lane. Okay. There's probably a better way to say that. Marc Jones is fine. He's good. He's not great. He's not terrible.
26:04
Oh, he is less than good. With the, with the over- He gets over the top Come on, really? I'm not a fan.
26:10
Uh, Scuba Scott, "With the current price of today's resort fees in Las Vegas, that $400 deal at Circa is really like 50 bucks," he says. Mm-hmm. He did the math. He came up with 50 bucks. You're right.
26:19
Um, ladies and gentlemen, let's talk some college baseball because, uh, not this coming weekend, but the following weekend is the conference tournaments.
26:25
If you recall, that's when I put in the Ole Miss bet that, that cashed at 100 to 1 for the College World Series back in, uh, 2023. Was that 2023 or 2022? I can't even remember.
26:35
Uh, Arkansas is your short shot to win it all. If you recall, this gentleman gave out Arkansas as one of his three plays when he came on before the college baseball se- uh, college baseball season began.
26:46
It was Virginia, it was Clemson, and it was Arkansas. Arkansas plus 470, the short shot to win it all. It's Matt Grissom, everybody, uh, joining us now.
26:53
You can follow him on Twitter, of course, @GrissomOnX, collegebaseballinsiders.com. What's happening, baby? Well, thank you for having me back on.
27:03
If you only went off Virginia, you would've said, "Ah, this guy doesn't know what he's talking about." Well- Cavs, Cavs are having a, a pretty rough year, but they're turning it on here late.
27:13
So is Florida, which we saw Florida barely make the tournament last year, and almost... I mean, they got to Omaha, uh, almost made it further than that.
27:25
But these Ole Miss type teams from 2022, you just have to watch out. Every SEC team I feel like is dangerous- Yeah... this time of year. Well, that's how it was that year too, right? That's how it was that year.
27:35
You said the SEC tournament has a different format now? They do. Since adding Texas and Oklahoma, they've dropped the whole single elimination, double elimination, single, uh, which is a weird format anyways.
27:47
It made for a long week in Hoover. Now it's just straight single elimination. The top four seeds get a double bye.
27:54
So I wouldn't be surprised if you see, I think the top four seeds right now are Texas, LSU, Arkansas, and Georgia. Uh, maybe Auburn instead of Georgia. I need to, I need to look. But I wouldn't be surprised if they just
28:08
one and done and go back home. Because, one, it's gonna save your pitching staff. Two, you've already got your seeding locked up. Selection Monday is, is on Memorial Day at noon after the tournament's end.
28:21
So, uh, you're not gonna fall from the graces of the committee's top eight national seeds or top 16. It's kind of what's done is done.
28:29
It's a 60-game season, so your, your body of work is more reflective of, of all those 60 games and not just a little tournament in Hoover. Yeah.
28:39
So let's start there, 'cause we talked a little bit about this off air with Best Bets. LSU, which is second short shot to Arkansas in terms of winning the College World Series, you can get, you can get LSU at plus 550.
28:49
But to make the College World Series, you can still get them at plus money? How is that possible? It is minus 115 right now. Oh, minus 115. So that- But still, though, right? Yeah. Like how does that look?
29:00
And that's only... I mean, yeah, you're talking about not wanting to tie up money on big futures. We're, we're talking two weeks and, or three weeks and you cash this.
29:09
So I think LSU could likely be the number one overall seed. I'll, we'll see when D1 baseball puts out their field of 64 projections. Last weekend they had LSU, I believe, as the third seed.
29:20
They had, uh, it was Florida State, Arkansas, I think LSU. And we were big sellers of Texas, the advanced analytics. And one of those idiots that believe in those, they said the Texas Longhorns- [laughs]...
29:34
shouldn't be number one. And lo and behold, now they've dropped two straight series, one to Arkansas getting swept, and then to, uh, to Florida this past weekend.
29:43
So yeah, i- if, if you're looking at this odds board, it just doesn't make sense. Arkansas minus 200. They just lost at Alex Box Stadium against LSU in a series. Tennessee minus 170 to make it.
29:59
Uh, they just dropped to number 17 after losing their fifth straight SEC series. LSU minus 115, the clear-cut number one in the country right now by, I think, every poll, and likely your number one overall seed.
30:13
Make it make sense. Yeah. M- uh, make it make sense. Let me just ask it the other way. What would they have to do to not make it? Like is it even possible?
30:21
If they lost every game from now to the end, wouldn't they still make the College World Series at this point? They...
30:27
So they will have to get through the regionals and super regionals before they get to the College World Series. So what this bet is is saying that they're gonna be one of the final eight in Omaha. Gotcha. Okay.
30:37
And just a quick refresher, regional, super regional. So there's 16 regional hosts, then there's top eight national seeds. Those will host the super regionals the following weekend.
30:47
The basic format is you get four teams seated one, two, three, four. One plays four, two plays three. Then you play until double elimination. Chances are home teams rule in most cases.
31:01
So as long as you're a regional host and a s- uh, top eight national seed, you're getting all home games until Omaha. So like I said, LSU probably gonna be the number one overall. Is it gonna be a cakewalk? No.
31:15
But the odds are in their favor, especially when you're considering Arkansas minus 200, Tennessee minus 170. It's a cheap price at 115 for the number one overall seed who's- Yeah...
31:26
likely gonna get the easier path to make it to Omaha. All right. Beyond that- And then Florida State- Yeah...
31:32
plus 210, sorry To give Kelly Bidlin some credit here, as I talked about last time out, Florida State's gonna be probably the number two overall seed and here they are at plus 210.
31:44
Hey, I, uh, Matt, I crossed off, uh, that, that bets to make to-do list I sent you last night. Uh, Florida State to win the College World Series. Had been on there for about three weeks, Gil. Mm. I'm in. 25 to one.
31:55
Let's go. There you go. Knowles. G- g- There you go... give me the, uh, give me the Ole Miss equivalent in the SEC. What's the SEC team that no one's thinking about that could absolutely win it all?
32:05
The problem is they've kind of wised up right now, and I think there's still a lot of value on Auburn, 40 to one. It doesn't really make sense why.
32:14
They're gonna be a top eight national seed, assuming they can handle business and, and win the rest of their games.
32:20
They are coming off a big series sweep against South Carolina, which not really huge, but then they go at Ole Miss, who's coming off a, a loss to Mississippi State, who just fired their coach.
32:31
So I honestly, I think Auburn could come into the SEC tournament on, like, a nine and one win streak, and they're playing really good baseball right now.
32:40
They're getting good outings by, uh, Cade Fisher and Sam Dutton, their one-two punch on the mound. And Ike Irish, you've got some, some big time hitters for, for the Tigers here.
32:53
Um, and then if you just really want a longer shot flyer, I would say, um, you've got Mississippi State at 65 to one, who, like I said, fired their head coach, but their advanced analytics have been there all season long.
33:07
They were a top five pitching staff looking at XDIP in Sierra. Who knows? Do they, do they, does the interim head coach come in and, and rally the troops?
33:16
It looks like it, 'cause over the last two weeks they've won more games than they had all season long in the SEC. So, uh, Mississippi State and, um, Auburn I think are- All right... the way to go there.
33:29
I'm getting that, I'm getting that old hotty toddy feeling again from a few years back. Thank you, Matt. Appreciate it. Definitely more faith in Auburn. Absolutely. Say the last part again.
33:38
Uh, definitely more faith in Auburn- More faith in Auburn... than the team that doesn't have a head coach. All right. Thank you, Matt. Appreciate it. We'll come back, we'll recap all the bets next.
33:46
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Hey there, uh, Kelly Bidlin. What do you say we recap our best bets of the day? Yeah, let's do it.
34:00
All right, let's do it courtesy of gbank, the official bank of VSiN. Uh, let us begin with me, your mild-mannered host. Uh, had a couple tennis plays today at the top of the show.
34:11
Jaume Munar, uh, versus Sebastian Korda at plus money, and, uh, Mr. Munar is up a set. He won the first set six four, so, so far so good on that one. What could go wrong, Kelly, on Munar? Oh, I'm sure you'll be fine.
34:25
Up a s- [laughs] I'm sure I'll be fine. [laughs] Ah, what could go wrong? And then a little later on today, this one has not started, Marta Kostyuk plus 243 versus the world number one Aryna Sabalenka.
34:36
Taking a flyer on Kostyuk at plus 243. She played, uh, Aryna very close last time, and I don't think, uh, I don't think she fears Sabalenka, let's put it that way.
34:46
Um, and then of course the Nuggets and Pacers adjusted series prices, which I both bet after their respective game ones. That Pacers one looking darn good up three to one.
34:55
Nuggets, uh, not so much at two to two, but we'll see. We'll see what happens there. Kelly, what do you have, sir? I am on the Wolves tonight. Uh, not a big play for me, but I'm laying five.
35:05
That was, uh, it's an interesting game the other night and I'm just, I'm just wondering if the wa- if Warriors are gonna have enough without Steph.
35:11
We, we, we thought there'd be a chance that, that they could hang around. It's not ruling them out yet, but man, you got a lot out of Kuminga and Jimmy Butler the other night. Still couldn't get it done.
35:20
So I'll lay five with the Timberwolves, uh, here tonight. I, I just think they might be a little too much right now with, with Steph out of the lineup. Um, Justin Thomas 22 to one to win the PGA.
35:30
Only PGA championship bet I have made so far. Basically the rest of my day will be digging into golf and getting ready for long shots tomorrow.
35:37
And then, uh, I'm very glad we had Matt on the show today because it did, uh, make, remind me to complete the one bet that I had left on my bets to-do list, Gil, and it is Florida State 25 to one to win the College World Series.
35:48
By the way, I, I got short shades on my picks. I am going to be on the Knicks tonight. I haven't made it yet, but I'm gonna make her here right after the show.
35:53
I'm gonna do the Knicks plus the points tonight in game four in Madison Square Garden. And in baseball, I will be on the Padres run line first five and run line for the full game against the Angels tonight.
36:04
The, uh, full game is about plus 102 on the minus one and a half for the home standing Padres. Uh, as far as Matt Grissom was concerned, you just heard him, Auburn 40 to one to win the College World Series.
36:15
He also, uh, thought that there might be some value on Mississippi State. He's also got Auburn four to one to make the College World Series. Again, that is to make Omaha get past the regionals and the super regionals.
36:26
LSU, he didn't mention this specifically, but this is available at DraftKings.
36:30
LSU plus 750 to win the College World Series is a bet, including that one that we talked about, which is LSU minus 115 to make the College World Series. But to win it all, plus 750.
36:42
There's a straight plus 750 at DraftKings. Go get it, people, 'cause we can't. Thank you to Matt Grissom for that. Did they, did they have the make market last year? It's a great market. Yes.
36:51
I don't know, I don't know why everybody wouldn't have that on. Yeah, we had the make market. Okay. Yeah, I don't see it in any other books, so. Uh, Carl Sack, he liked the under in the Celtics Knicks tonight.
36:59
Under 208 and a half. Yeah, I lean that way too. For sure. Yeah. Okay. Uh, anybody else or is that it? Was that it? Do we have any more? No, we got Wes. We got Wes. Yeah, I was gonna say, Wes Reynolds.
37:07
Jalen Brunson today. Wes has a couple props in the Knicks, uh, Celtics game. He's got Jalen Brunson over two and a half made three pointers, and Jason Tatum under 27 and a half points.
37:19
For my Knicks plus the points bet, I hope both of those things actually happen. So that's from Wes Reynolds. All of our best bets courtesy of gbank, the official bank of VSiN. Every show, every host, every sport
37:32
Every guests, every sport, all recapped at the end of each and every show on the network. Most credit cards treat sportsbook and gaming transactions as cash advances. That's even when you put your own money on the card.
37:41
G-Bank treats gaming transactions as purchases, so you're saving up to 3 to 5 percent on cash advance fees on gaming transactions right back.
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Also, with G-Bank, you're earning 1% cash back rewards on all eligible sportsbook and gaming transactions, and 2% cash back rewards on all eligible purchases. Apply now at vsin.com/gbank. That's vsin.com/gbank.
38:01
By the way, our Vsin Killer Sports NBA Playoff Challenge, Kelly Bidlon. Oh, update me, 'cause I never even check the standings anymore as they just keep dropping Ls. Stevie Fezzik threatening to run away and hide.
38:13
Are you serious? 19 and 9. You s- you said Kazirian's come back to the pack? Zach Cohen and Doug Kazirian tied for second at 16 and 11. Wow. What am I, 500 now? Kelly Bidlon, 13, 12 and 1.
38:31
And- Brutal second round... and young Gil Alexander, and I think I deserve a prize for this, 13, 13 and 1. I have managed- There you go... to go 500 in 27 games. Where do you, where do you rank?
38:45
Do, do we have more, is there more people below [laughs] 500 than above 500? You, you, you, do I wish you hadn't asked that on air? [laughs] God, okay. It's been a rough second round, man.
38:53
[laughs] Let's put it this where, let's put it this way. Me flipping coins, if this continues, I could finish second if this goes- Oh, geez... if the trend continues.
39:01
Is that, well, Z- well, Zach and, Zach and Fezzik seem to be the only ones consistently rising every time we check in on this. Yes, that's correct.
39:08
In terms of round two, Steve Fezzik six and two, Zach Cohen five and two. They've been the best. That is damn impressive for the tribe.
39:14
That is damn impressive because- I don't, I don't know anybody talking or, uh, talking in NBA circles that they've had a great betting second round. No.
39:20
But, uh, Stevie, and Stevie asked me yesterday, he goes, "Uh, make up a line for me. What's my line to win this?" And I think he's about a minus 250 favorite, 'cause he's still got, he's still got, what is that?
39:32
Uh, boop, boop, boop, boop, boop. He's still got 10 games to play? Yeah, 10 more to go. Uh, Doug and Zach each have 11 more games to play, I believe it is. I'm just doing it in my head.
39:44
And then, yeah, so there's, there's still time for Fezzik to blow it, don't get me wrong. I think I played myself out this weekend. It was the, uh- You know what? Here's the thing.
39:52
You just gotta keep birdieing holes, right? Like Stevie said, you just birdie or par, or you just birdie or bogey every hole, right?
39:58
Although, you and I managed to par one with a push the other day, which was comical, on the Warriors. I was on the Warriors side, and you were on the other side. You were on the T-Wolves side.
40:06
Oh, I'm still a little angry about that one. Yeah. Draymond needed to get that cover. Draymond needed to cover.
40:11
So I would, I would make Fezzik about a minus 250 favorite, and that's good news for all the people at, uh, at Circa. He pledged his potential winnings to all the folks- That's right, yeah... here at Circa.
40:22
I pledged mine to the people behind the glass. I'm not getting it done for them. Hey, there's still time. There's still time. There's still time.
40:28
I think I got, I think I'm done after this weekend with the Wolves not getting there and then the Thunder not getting there yesterday because Aaron Gordon had to bank in a three, uh, to make sure that cover got home.
40:38
Oh, you know who I have not mentioned in this that actually has, has fewer lo- fewer losses than Doug and Zach? Alex Christiansen is actually the closest- Noobs... to Fezzik in the loss column. I should mention him.
40:52
Uh, he's 14, 10 and 1, so he's only one game behind Fezzik in the loss column. Actually, with the push, one and a half you might say. But still, so he's in it. He's very much in it as well. Yeah, that's big. That's big.
41:02
Yeah. There you go. Um, to football for a second before we close, I don't know if you caught this, uh, this weekend while you were watching basketball and everything else, that Derek Carr retired from the NFL. Man,
41:15
kind of upset. I, I was, I was not in a position to immediately make bets. No. I, uh, would have. I'm sure there were a lot of people that did. Good on you. Uh, looking at Saints unders and stuff like that.
41:25
But man, thi- this was kinda, now, now looking back on it, feels like he was kinda, this was being telegraphed all along, of like, "Hey, there's major questions in New Orleans," and we weren't really getting updates on Derek Carr and what was going on.
41:38
I, I'm not very surprised to see this has happened. Tyler Shuck is your favorite to take the Saints' first snap. Tyler Shuck, minus 260. The 26-year-old rookie out of Louisville, Tyler Shuck. Yeah.
41:54
Is minus 260 to take the Saints' first snap in week number one. Spencer Rattler, plus 190, and Jake Haener, son of former Bay Area news anchor Julie Haener- [laughs]... 17 to 1. That's great.
42:08
I didn't know, I didn't know that. Oh, yeah, Julie Haener, when she, she anchored the, uh, the local news I think on the Fox affiliate there for many years.
42:13
Were Rattler and Haener really that bad in their brief appearances last year that we're gonna make- Well... the rook minus 260? Yeah, that's, uh, I, I thought the same thing.
42:21
I was like, they're not, they weren't good, don't get me wrong. They weren't good. They were not good. They were not good, but I did think that was a little aggressive on Shuck. Like, I think I'd go Rattler.
42:30
I, I actually think wrong guy's favored here. I don't think I'd have an opinion. I, I, I- Well, uh, there, there's a name- Yeah... missing from this list, Gil Alexander- Where does-...
42:37
'cause I saw a report come down this morning- Yeah... which I think was a very intelligent report. Yeah, I know where you're going, I think. Free Jameis Winston. Oh, that's not the one I heard. Free Jameis. Free Jameis.
42:47
Free Jameis. 'Cause, 'cause Jameis Winston, uh, got signed by the Giants, and then they signed Russell Wilson, and then they, then they went ahead and they traded up for Jackson Dart. Yeah, now he's stuck.
42:55
Now, like, you can actually get something back from Jameis from a Saints team that I'd, I would think would be interested in a quarterback that has played under this system before. Jameis, who played for the Saints?
43:05
Um- So I need another name added, DraftKings. There's no way the Falcons would trade him to the, to inter-division team, right? Intra-division team. Who, Kirk? Yeah, no way they would do that. Yeah, I don't think so.
43:18
No, no way. No way. Aaron, Aaron Rodgers would not be someone to go there, right? I wouldn't think so. Question mark. Although, although in... You know how I feel, Gil. Yeah.
43:27
Inside in New Orleans sounds a lot more comfortable to me than outside in Pittsburgh, but- Let's just put it this way. You don't have to bet everything.
43:33
That would be one of the props that I would have no interest in betting whatsoever. Give me a no price on Tyler Shu- Shuck. I still don't even know how to say the guy's name. Shuck. Yeah, Tyler Shuck.
43:42
Give me a no price on that, I might be interested. Otherwise, I'm with you. Okay. Stay away. A lot of people love him, though. There's a reason why they drafted him.
43:49
Yeah, there's a reason why he played college football for 17 years. [laughs] Something wrong with a 26-year-old rookie.
43:56
Anyway, tho- those are, those are prol- proliferating, those, uh, first snap props on all the teams where that thing is in question. The Saints now become one more team where that is in question.
44:07
And what does that do to the Saints' season win total, right? I mean- Oh, yeah... crash away. Yeah, cra- yes, crashes. Uh, schedule comes out in two days. Again, leaking, uh, trickle by trickle, as they say.
44:20
I don't know if anybody says that. I just said it. [laughs] Um, but of course, uh, Cowboys/Eagles is the opener. Eagles favored by seven. Fezzik's already in at six and a half on the straight six and a half.
44:29
Money Moves is next. Enjoy with Stormy and JVT right here at Vsin, the Sports Betting Network.
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