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May 13, 2025
A Numbers Game | May 13, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 13, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:08
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin.
0:20
Who says this time of year is slow? I can't believe, I can't believe we're halfway through the show already. I, we could talk about the lottery for, for three hours.
0:28
We could go, but we, we, we only hit on, like, three teams. There's, like, four more other teams there to, to address. Uh, but there's so much else to talk about 'cause, uh, we got a golf major this week. We got tennis.
0:39
We got horse racing. We got a whole bunch of stuff. Uh, before we get to Drew here, we get tweets at Beating The Book. By the way, Sian Lejad also gonna join us, talk PGA a little later on.
0:47
Uh, Rick Ollier, "Hey guys, uh, catching the show a little late this morning. Did I miss something? Who has AIDS?" [laughs] That's a terrible- That's terrible...
0:55
I, uh, I, I made an analogy earlier is what I did, and, uh, maybe I should've said it's, like, they treat the achi- they treat the word Achilles or, like, s- s- you know, suggesting or speculating that someone might have a, a ruptured Achilles like Voldemort in Harry Potter.
1:10
Like, th- th- the name that cannot, he who cannot be named. I think that's a better way to say it, yeah, yeah. [laughs] That's probably better. Well, you weren't alive when I was. Trust me, it's not better.
1:20
It's so ridiculous that they won't, that they won't say the word. I, I think it's- It's a lower leg injury... I think it's most, uh- It's structural. There's nothing wrong with, like, here's the thing.
1:30
The human body, the, the, one of the flaws of our human, or of our sk- of our skeletal structure is that we cannot, our body cannot be supported by those lower extremities if you don't get enough blood flow, stretch, whatever it is, and it just happens.
1:43
So what's, why can't you s- say it? 'Cause nobody wants to speculate over possibly horrendous injuries that could massively affect your career if you don't- His life isn't in danger.
1:52
I mean- But, but, I mean, his career is in, i- in theory. His career is not in theory, but it would be a year, yes.
1:58
I, I, I, I just think it's funny 'cause anybody who's actually had an Achilles injury, I heard people mention it yesterday, but it's all people that had Achilles injuries. They're like, "Oh, that's an Achilles." Yeah.
2:07
Well, we're a, we're a breed apart. We're a unique specimen of athlete is what we are, Kelly. [laughs] That's right, yeah. Especially if you do t- especially if you rupture two, then you're really amazing.
2:16
Uh, Brian M, no, I already read that one. This is from, uh, Paul M, "I thought I was done commenting today, but hold the friggin' phone, Kelly, on Giannis being better than SGA.
2:27
Let's take out Giannis' one main move, driving to the basket." Well, that is a pretty good move. It's a really good move. "He can't shoot threes. His mid-range shot is below 500 in foul shooting.
2:36
'Nough said, I will stop there." Well, I'm with you, Paul M. I think he went a little crazy there, but I hear what you're saying. Two-time defensive player of the year. Yeah, age.
2:45
S- NewYorkMess16, oh, he's just thanking, uh, uh, Sharapan for that, uh, mathematics on the top three picks. Matt Trudel, "What happened with the base winner this morning? Did I really miss it?
2:55
Will you put his parlay and pick up on your Best Bet segment? I can't believe I missed it." We had technical problems. He couldn't be on the show. Yep. You did not miss it. He'll be back next week. All right.
3:03
You know who does n- you know who never has technical problems because he can troubleshoot his own? Drew Dincic, everybody. Drewski. Wale_capper on Twitter.
3:11
He's the co-host of not one but two podcasts, The Deep Dive with Andy Molator, Dincic Classic, and then new Dincic, Bet The Edge on NBC Sports, which they do dailies of now as well, Jay Croucher alongside.
3:21
It's Drew Dincic now from the LBC. How you doing, man? I'm great. I still have a lot to talk about. [laughs] A lot going on right now. Um, fun conversation, honestly, about SGA versus Giannis, who you take at this point.
3:35
I think you've seen, you know, we know where Giannis' peak is. We know it's higher than where SGA is now, but the likelihood that he re- kind of recaptures that peak at his age is probably low.
3:45
So we don't really know where the ceiling of SGA is.
3:47
I think you ride this thing out if you're Oklahoma City, and we're probably having a very different conversation if, uh, if it's not for the great Alex Caruso and his heartfelt fourth quarter performance for the Thunder in game four, where he was hustling and, and fighting through screens, and, and the, he was the injection of energy that that team needed to avoid, uh, what would've been an extremely painful loss.
4:11
Damn straight, Drew. [laughs] Heartfelt. Damn straight. Drew is describing that with a, with a European flair almost. [laughs] Uh, Drew, there's only one thing we really wanna know. Lottery, rigged or not?
4:22
That's all we really want. [laughs] Uh, I think it's probably not rigged, but, uh, I do think the basketball gods have a pretty hilarious sense of humor.
4:32
[laughs] That's, that's kind of where, kind of where I land, which is why I use the phrase, "But I will allow for the possibility that it could be."
4:40
All right, I'm just gonna- Um, it was rigged back in, it was rigged back in the day almost certainly. Yeah. Um, I will say this, though, like, like, what they did of flattening the odds, that is a failure.
4:48
Like, they just need to go back to the old way of things because we have more teams tanking than there used to be, and you have the same teams, you know, that, that desperately need to be less bad not getting the good players.
5:00
[laughs] Like, it, it's, it's kind of, uh, uh, it's kind of what you're, you're- Well, depend- it depends what your year of- Yeah... it depends what your year of reference is. Like, 1983, you're right. I guess.
5:07
There were less teams tanking, but 2017, 2018, there were just as many- Yeah... if not more teams tanking for that 25% ping pong ball. That's, that's fair. That's fair. Yeah.
5:16
But yeah, like, like, uh, you, you have situations that were, and I guess some of this is, like, like, the 76ers, they, they made their bed with, uh, you know, having traded, uh, the, the right, you know, the, only protecting themselves up to six in that Thunder trade.
5:29
But, um, you know, some of the, uh, um, yeah, some of these teams, like, like, the Jazz are, what, two, two years now of not trying, of trying not to be competitive, and they get the fifth overall pick in, in a draft that has, like, maybe three really good players.
5:43
[laughs] Like, like, that's, that's n- it's not a great outcome. And if you're Utah, too, like, it's like w- no free agent wants to come here. Like, it's just- Yeah... bereft of hope, you know? Um, what else?
5:55
Well, Larry Markkanen got another injury. Yeah, just that. Just coming across my timeline. Just coming across. His shoulder's hurting today, guys. [laughs] This is, this was satire. This is not true.
6:03
Uh, okay, tonight's games. Um, we have a game five in Cleveland where the Cavaliers are seven-and-a-half point favorites, Drew, despite the fact that they're down three games to one.
6:13
We don't know about Donovan Mitchell quite yet. What do you think about this game? Do you have a play total at 230 where it's kind of been all series? [sighs] I can't believe I'm gonna say this out loud.
6:24
[laughs] I think the Cavaliers are a bet for the East at five to one. Ooh-hoo-hoo. Oh, my. Really? I think Mitchell's fine. Uh, president shoot around. That did just come down, in all seriousness.
6:38
[laughs] I know I was just joking. That one is not satsang. I know I was just joking about marketing. Yeah. That one did just come down. That one is true.
6:45
Uh, I think the Cavaliers are correctly eight-point favorites here. I actually make it closer to nine. My fair in the game is nine. I would lay Cavs or pass.
6:54
But, uh, even more than just having a stake in the Cavaliers for this game, um, you know, do the math. Like, they're gonna be minus 150, minus 135, something like that, uh, in Indiana in game six.
7:06
Um, so better than a 50/50 chance that this is coming, going to game seven, where you're gonna have maybe an eight and a half point, nine-point favorite opportunity for the Cavs.
7:15
So like there's, the, you know, this, this seems like the series is over, and the Pacers are just gonna win because largely because of, uh, of a half of game four where they could not miss.
7:27
Every single th- you know, shot went in. Uh, everything broke their direction. They're a great home team, and so I'm gonna be sweating game six almost certainly. But I think the Cavs win game five.
7:37
I think they're competitive in game six, have a very realistic chance to go seven.
7:41
And then in a world where the Cavaliers win this series and play the Knicks, um, the market price for them in the ballpark of five to one implies that that series would be a pick 'em. That's not correct.
7:53
If the Cavaliers get there, that is not a pick 'em against the Knicks. They are, like, in the minus 240 range probably. So this is, like, one of those weird situations.
8:02
And I went to war with the Celtics against the Heat a couple years ago in the same kinda deal, where they're down 0-3, and you're like, "I know it doesn't look good," but if they win, like, the market ha- it just adjusts them one way because the prior and the anchoring is so strong, and we know that this is a good team.
8:19
And so, you know, rather than get involved laying the eight where, when even though I think they will cover tonight,
8:26
I'm gonna add more to what is already an underwater position, that the, uh, Cleveland Cavaliers are gonna win the Eastern Conference. Cleveland to win the East five to one. Coming strong.
8:35
[sighs] Uh, Nuggets-Thunder tonight, game five. This is the only series not ended up at two games a piece. The N- the, uh, Thunder favored by 10 and a half, total 221.
8:46
Yeah, the risk room at, uh, uh, i- i- in my shop has, has, has, uh, removed my ability to bet more on this series. [laughs] So I have, uh, no action for me. Just going to be sweating out a minus 520. At risk room.
8:59
Just, just gonna be sweating out a minus 525 money line in the hopes that it gets home. That's all I really care. Okay. Just win, please. [laughs] I, I mean, the spread's massive. Please do not go to a game seven. Yeah.
9:11
Please. Yeah. Okay. The spread's massive. I mean, I mean, Drew and I both have Thunder positions. I'm not running to lay 10 and a half against this Denver team. Like, we've seen what Jokic and the- Yeah...
9:20
and company can do. Um, do I think they're probably getting tired down the stretch here, the Thunder could take over- Yeah... and this could be a big game? Yeah, but I'm not ruling out Jokic either.
9:30
Let, let's, let's go to tomorrow then. Yeah. Knicks-Celtics. Well, I, I'll tell, I'll just tell you real quick. Okay. Yeah. My, I agree with Kelly's point.
9:34
My, my fair on that one is nine, so I wouldn't, I couldn't lay 10 and a half in good conscience anyway.
9:39
To get to 10 and a half, you literally have to be pricing in the fact that the Nuggets are dead, um, and that, uh, and there is some evidence of that.
9:46
I mean, game four, the missed free throws, the missed threes, like, it all kinda s- told you the same, sim, s- you know, same, same story, which is you have, uh, you know, some sincere fatigue setting in for these guys.
9:56
So, um, yeah, I mean, I'm, I'm cautiously optimistic the Thunder get this done in six and, uh, and, uh, very hopeful that, uh, that they just, you know, that they move through healthy. Okay.
10:05
Tomorrow, um, Warriors-Timberwolves. Let's start with that. 11-point favorites on the T-Wolves. That's the second game tomorrow night. Looking to close out the Steph-less Warriors. Staying away? Yeah, big number.
10:15
Uh, don't agree. I think that is Warriors or pass. Um, the idea that the, the Warriors are just gonna let go of the rope and not fight, uh, uh, I'm not seeing it. Um, this team fights hard.
10:27
They have kind of figured some things out from the last time we saw these teams play in Minnesota where it was, um, you know, it was, it was basically Steve Kerr throwing darts trying to see what he had, uh, in the absence of Curry.
10:39
Now he knows what he has, and I think they're gonna play hard enough to at least stay inside this number. Um, I don't think they, uh, they just completely give up here.
10:47
So huge, huge number for what has been a pretty competitive series outside of that third quarter yesterday. And then Knicks-Celtics back in Boston, we will assume without Jayson Tatum.
10:57
Uh, the Celtics are still a five-point favorite looking to stave off the closeout. Yeah, that's my fair as well.
11:02
I have 112, 107 projected there, so five points is right on the money, but my total is coming in a lot higher than 208. Uh, and I think ultimately, Tatum's absence defensively is, is what makes that game interesting.
11:15
Uh, Knicks, uh, certainly have, you know, they played their best game of the series yesterday.
11:21
Obviously, OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges have, you know, bringing something to the table offensively to supplement what you are already getting from the unstoppable Jalen Brunson and, um, and the very solid Karl-Anthony Towns offensively, uh, is, uh, is definitely, you know, is, is not repeatable necessarily.
11:38
But, uh, the total is sitting at 208. It's about five points too low. Okay. Cleveland to win the East five to one. He likes the over in the Knicks-Celtics tomorrow night. Uh, we'll come back.
11:48
Preakness, tennis, and Drew needs to make some contest picks next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Smarter bets start here and last all year long with VSiN Pro.
12:04
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12:16
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12:21
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12:31
Head to vsin.com/subscribe now and use promo code PRO to lock in 14 months of VSiN Pro for just $199. Slash subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Too much to get to with Drew. Uh, we bring him back.
12:45
He's always kind enough to do two segments with us, @whale_capper, uh, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Deep Dive, the Deep Dive podcast, and of course, NBC Sports Bet the Edge. That's where he does his thing.
12:57
Um, real quick, you are getting-- You have four plays left in the second round. You do have two tonight you've already made, so you're, you're gonna be okay getting in all your plays. Yes, I think I'm gonna make it.
13:06
Uh, it's gonna be close though. I'm gonna need to pick my spots carefully. We're talking about the- I'm running out of options here. Um- We're talking about the VSiN Killer Sports NBA Playoff Challenge. Steve Fezzik.
13:14
Got two wins yesterday though. Oh, there you go. Why not? [laughs] Uh, playing, uh... Yeah, played the, uh, eight with the Cavs tonight. I mentioned my fair is nine.
13:23
Uh, and I took under 220 and a half for the, uh, uh, Thunder and the, uh, the Nuggets game.
13:30
Uh, and honestly, I only hit submit on that and, and I'm, I'm holding my breath that I-- that the, the Nuggets defense can keep the Thunder under 130 points, because I don't know how the Nuggets are breaking 90. Okay.
13:41
Wow. All right, there you go. His contest picks in, in the, uh, challenge, so we'll get a little more insight from Drew on the NBA. All right, to tennis in Rome, the Italian Open.
13:52
By the way, did Musetti win this match or it's still suspended? What did they play a few more points and then they suspended it again? I think it's match point. They suspended it on match point.
14:01
[laughs] I think they suspended it on match point. Wow. So I hit the Paolini, right? And now I'm waiting for the Musetti, and they... It was 5-4, they suspended it. It got to match point, they suspended it again.
14:11
I cannot get my flowers here. R-rain? What is it? Yeah, rain. Okay. I hope it's rain. I don't want it to be lightning. Well, I don't like, um- Lightning... do you have anything left when the rain stops? Uh, let me...
14:22
Yeah, let me take a look. I have Tommy Paul against De Minaur later as a dog to win outright. Um, I took the games with Jaume Munar against Casper Ruud. Um, that's it for today. Tomorrow I have,
14:36
uh, I'm hoping Andreeva can s- can crack the code and defeat Coco Gauff finally. Uh, she's played her three times. She's lost three times. Um, but my pricing between those two women says that should be a pick 'em. Hmm.
14:49
Uh, and I got plus money on Andreeva to go through. I... And just overall, like, I have Andreeva as, um, your second choice right now. Sorry, Gil, in the, uh, in the French Open, second choice- Oh, there's no apol-...
15:02
after Sabalenka. [laughs] Like, there's no apologizing. It's, uh- There's no apologizing anymore. Mm. One, one she... Once, we're talking about Swiatek, by the way.
15:09
Once she lost in an early round on slow clay, that was the end of that, right? Because until that point, you could still hang your hat on, she never loses early, and it's slow clay.
15:20
Now you can't hang your hat on anything. And I have to s- the new coach has to have something to do with this also, right? Like, maybe she's completely... Well, who knows what it is? Anyway, no need to apologize.
15:28
Keep, keep as you were. Go ahead. Yeah. So, uh, Andreeva, for me at least, is... You know, a lot, a lot of markets right now kind of have, still holding on to Yige at the top of the board, the time they want to.
15:39
Um, but, uh, I would put her right now as third choice. I would put Gauff fourth. Uh, Gauff right now is a third choice above Andreeva in a lot of places.
15:47
I, I, I just feel like there's a much higher upside with Andreeva, especially when you kind of consider what we've seen from her this year as overall, uh, and the fact that she's taken such a serious step forward this year.
15:56
So, um, this is, uh, kind of where the rubber meets the, you know, the road for her to, to really contend for slams. These next three are kind of her breakout opportunity.
16:06
Um, particularly if Yige's gonna concede, uh, dominance in this particular event, then, uh, then there's gonna be potential for something fun to happen.
16:13
So why not get Andreeva in there, especially after she, uh, ships, uh, Indian Wells this, uh, you know, this, this spring. I think I'm gonna be opposite you on the Coco-Andreeva match tomorrow, but I'm not sure yet.
16:24
Okay. I'll have to look, yeah. I might be opposite. Riding the, uh, riding the, the, uh, the head-to-head. Well- 3-0... not the head- It's... And honestly, like- Not the head-to-head...
16:31
her win against her in Madrid was good. Not the head-to-head. Her numbers, her clay numbers are spectacular. Coco's are. They're good. So I may, I may ride with that. We'll see.
16:40
Um, can't argue with you about the French right now, though. Wouldn't it be awesome if Yige somehow came alive? Um, okay, to the Preakness. You had a good Kentucky Derby. You had a great Kentucky Derby.
16:51
Let, let me not shortchange that. Fantastic. Um- So did Chris Felica, so did Mike Somich. I just don't wanna get any texts, okay? [laughs] That's right.
16:57
We have- [laughs] The horse racing people are very prickly with that. Chris Felica hit a seven to one, and Somich hit a superfecta. Y'all were great. Nice. Um, do we have a shot at the- Bets... Triple Crown?
17:08
Let's start there, and then how do you see the Preakness go? I'm gonna go no. Yes, Somich's superfecta was effec- like, practically a cold too, which is to say he didn't put nine million options in there. [laughs] Yeah.
17:20
He just gave you, like, five horses, and four of them hit. Um, but, uh, yeah. The, um, uh, the Preakness is an interesting, uh, setup this year. This is obviously the 150th running.
17:31
Uh, and it does not feature a Triple Crown contender, as the most notable name absent from the field is Sovereignty. Um, he's elected to pass the Preakness and focus, uh, point towards the Belmont Stakes.
17:46
There's my answer. The Belmont, it is... It's a longer race, guys. Well, there's two things about Sovereignty.
17:52
Um, one of the reasons he was such a, a, a s- a wise guy pick for the Kentucky Derby is because his performances suggested he really wanted the mile and a quarter. Like, he was ready to go that distance. He was...
18:06
And he was the type of horse that really excels at, you know, in that type, those type of conditions. Like, it was the perfect, perfect storm. Well, the Preakness is a step backwards in distance. It's more of...
18:16
It's like- the sprint, uh, of the Triple Crown, so to, so to speak. It's a mile and 3/16ths.
18:23
Um, and so, you know, the fact that you're kind of ramping back down distance-wise when they have been really kind of pointing Sovereignty to go further and further and further, like that, that was one reason to kinda say, "You know, does this make sense to run him here?"
18:36
Um, and then on top of that, you have other speed in this field. You have sprinters, effectively, and, and Sovereignty is a closer. He is gonna have to come off the pace to get every win of his career probably.
18:46
Um, and, uh, you know, so you're, you're, you're, you're not feeling like this is our race necessarily. Um, and then you're looking at the- But do you agree with that, Drew? I'm, I'm curious what your stance is on that.
18:55
Sure. Do you agree with that? In, in a, in a sport that already, you know, thirsts for younger generations to love it, there is this thing called the Triple Crown that most are still- Sure... aware of, right?
19:07
It might be the only thing they're aware of in horse racing. I, I get the points you're making. That's a pretty, i- you know, we've talked about this for f- several years now.
19:16
It's a pretty interesting decision to make to forgo any chance of that. Still understanding your reasoning, but it just seems like, yeah, history shmistory. You know, the chance at history.
19:27
[laughs] Um, history shmistory, as my mom used to say. [laughs] Who cares about the big financial prize if we do win the Triple Crown?
19:35
Let's just play this the way we want, because all we really care about is the horse's health and breeding in the end, I guess. Is that part of it also, the health?
19:44
Well, I, I mean, if you cared about the breeding part of it more than you cared about the arc of the year, then you probably just run him. That too.
19:54
Because that's, like the upside of, like, y- the, uh, the upside of, of, of kind of r- early retirement, you know, the, say, the Justify path where he just runs the Triple Crown and then you retire him right away before anything else can happen to him, right?
20:07
Like that, that is sort of, like the, "Hey, we have something special here," where we, we don't know that this career, th- you know, the, this more, horse is more valuable for us not on the track.
20:15
Well, Sovereignty is more valuable on the track. This is a horse that could potentially, and probably will win the Belmont.
20:22
He probably will win at least one if not two races over the summer of, you know, p- premier Grade 1 stakes, uh, at Saratoga.
20:31
Uh, he probably will have a very reasonable shot to win a Breeders' Cup Classic, um, if not this year, then next year, right? So they're probably really looking at his three-year-old and four-year-old seasons.
20:43
We're gonna run this horse in all of the premier graded stakes, and he is going to ship a number of those, uh, to the tune of, you know, he's, he's gonna...
20:51
This, this is what we want out of this, uh, experience, as opposed to we are looking at this as potential, you know, smash and grab m- money, money play where we can breed him. Um, they wanna race him.
21:04
And I think kind of electing to not run him on a two-week turnaround in a race that doesn't really fit his, his running style and isn't really, like a reasonable, very reasonable chance against a bunch of fresh runners, like this, this, it w- it would've been tactically poor- Okay...
21:21
if what they really care about is running him throughout the year. It's a good answer. Yeah. Right? And, and, and so I get it. Like, i- if I was in the horse racing game, you know what I wouldn't care about?
21:30
Whatever breeding rights I'm getting from the horse. I wanna run him in all the big races, and I wanna win those races, right? And so, like the history part of it, of the Triple Crown, would've been tough to pass up.
21:39
But I think I would've similarly looked at this field, looked at this, kind of what you're asking of this horse, and said, "You know, we're probably gonna get beat."
21:46
Uh, and you know, we're, we're, we're gonna get beat on top of the fact that we're gonna threaten our chance to win the Belmont, so let's hold him. What do you got in the Preakness then?
21:56
Uh, give me the, uh, give me the one. Uh, Goal Oriented is kind of your freshest, hottest newcomer in this field. Uh, he is a Baffert-trained horse.
22:06
Baffert famously eight-time, uh, training rec- tr- training, uh, winning record, uh, at the Preakness, which, uh, is the most of any trainer. Uh, and I think he has a pretty cool and special horse here.
22:20
We saw Goal Oriented run his second race of his career on Derby day at Churchill Downs. He was on the undercard in race three. He stomped.
22:28
Uh, he gets Flavien Prat aboard, who is, uh, obviously if not the best, one of the best jockeys in the sport. Uh, and in general, uh, I like his, uh, his ability to go speed heads-up with Journalism.
22:40
Journalism is gonna have more tactical speed early. Okay. Goal Oriented could just flat out be on the pace, and I could see a world where he, uh, he goes wire to wire. Drew, thank you as always. Appreciate it.
22:50
See you on the PGA next. Bye. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
The Sharp Plays unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, alerts directly from the pros. sharpplays.com. Check them out. Let's go, Alexander.
23:09
Kelly Bidlin alongside here. I just wanna read this one tweet. This from PrimeTime. Cowboys_Cubs1. "Yo." Hey, man.
23:16
"There are only two plausible causes for this sudden rash of Achilles injuries, the MLB pitch clock or the Dutch." [laughs] Reference to, uh, Michael Caine in, uh, Austin Powers. What does he say in this?
23:28
"Only two things I hate in this world, intolerance- [laughs]... intolerance of other cultures and the Dutch," he says. Nice to have angry, uh, Country Club and Kelly, uh, K. Michael Bidlin back as well.
23:38
Any player award future losing tickets we can get him to discuss to ease his pain? Wow. Yeah. Shots fired. Yeah. No, not really. Not really, PrimeTime. That, that- Love you, man... that was a bad NBA award season.
23:50
Oh, it sucked. Yeah. It sucked. There was so many, so many, just so many close. Like, it so coulda, it, it could've easily have been great. I only had the one. I had Norm Powell injury.
24:01
The only NBA future I had, Warriors injury. Like, there's nothing you can say about them. I think the one, especially with most improved, it's the, it's the award, 'cause I've hit, what? I think three of the last five.
24:11
Like, I thought I kinda had down, and, and hit on preseason tickets too, right? So it was Kind of that little formula of the star on the rise sort of thing that I was always targeting.
24:23
And man, the way this played out this year, Gil, it's throw out what, throw out the playbook because this has changed.
24:29
And I mean, I- the NBA awards this year, I don't think you really, y- y- you wouldn't have thought, you wouldn't have had a winning season if you didn't r- [laughs] uh, only if you bet them, like, in 2025.
24:40
Like, you had to have waited till February, March really to get involved in a lot of those. Uh, this gentleman, uh, knows not only golf, but multiple sports as well. Maybe he, uh, wants to chime in on some stuff.
24:51
Sia Nejad joins us from the Monumental Sports Network, of course, also CBS, uh, SportsLine as well. We always love having Sia on, or SportsLine as we're calling it these days.
25:00
You can follow him on Twitter @sianejad, S-I-A N-E-J-A-D. Joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Sia? Gil, I'm good. What a great day to have a, a sports talk show. Oh, man. A great time of year.
25:12
There's just so much going on. And since we're talking about awards, can I just tell you, Jayden Daniels, NFL MVP 2025, how do you feel about that, Gil? Oh, music is happening.
25:21
[laughs] There's, there's like a choir in my ear. Go on. Well, I mean, so here's the thing.
25:27
W- we know, you guys know better than anybody, that voting is flawed, and part of that flaw is people looking for narratives, people looking for new faces or additional faces to, to put on the, quote, you know, the, the Mount Rushmore, if you will, with Mahomes and Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.
25:42
We're looking at Jayden Daniels. I think his number is at -- I know I'm here to talk golf, but we're looking at Jayden Daniels. I think his number is in the, you know, plus 800 to plus 1,000, maybe plus 1,100 range.
25:51
He's got a new toy in Deebo Samuel. He's got his offensive line back, plus Laremy Tunsil. Uh, you know, you look at their projected win totals.
25:59
They probably won't win the NFC East, but they certainly have a chance to, and he doesn't need to to get this MVP award.
26:05
Uh, it just feels like when you look at Jayden Daniels as a person and as a football player, and if you're narrative shopping and you're looking for an additional face on a team that is very much excelling, he really checks a lot of those boxes.
26:19
So Jayden Daniels is your MVP NFL 2025. Go on. No, I'm kidding. I, I love when our guests- Yeah, yeah...
26:26
hit the, like, the regular or semi-regular guest point, and then the guest gets so comfortable, like Sia's crossed that line. Yeah. Like, "I know I'm here to talk golf. Unapologetically, though- Yeah...
26:34
I'm talking something else for the next minute." [laughs] Sia, Sia, do you g- do you get all fired up for the NFL schedule release tomorrow? Do you get fired up for that as well?
26:42
Only to the extent -- I mean, we know who these teams are playing. I mean, I -- for, for Washington, for example, like, we're gonna get a lot of primetime games.
26:48
That, by the way, also feeds into what I'm talking about when it comes to, uh, Jayden being NFL MVP. He's gonna have a lot of primetime games. So I think that part is interesting.
26:57
But to me, the NFL schedule release is more of like, okay, now we can start to take the next NFL season kind of seriously.
27:03
We, we are still kind of far removed, but when I see the schedule, now I can start breaking down wins and losses, and now futures are starting to come out more and more.
27:11
So yeah, I kind of get excited about it, but it's mostly because of the time of year that it comes out. Yeah. Six games already leaked, quote-unquote, or announced.
27:19
Announced slash leaked, and we'll give you the, uh, spreads on those, uh, here before the end of the show. Okay. To... Well, o- one more thing before we get to golf.
27:28
I, I know you're not an Achilles guy, but you've had your shoulder knocked, uh, uh, separated, what, like 100 times? How many times have you had your shoulder separated? Oh, God. Yeah, seven full dislocations.
27:36
Seven full dislocations. Yes. Why do we have to talk about it? It hurts my shoulder every time we talk about it. [laughs] And you, and you pop it back in every time, do you? He's like Riggs. Is that what you do?
27:44
Yeah, five out of seven I was able to pop it back in, and two of them I had to go to the emergency room. And let me tell you- [laughs]... when you go to the emergency room, they, they don't just pop it back in for you.
27:53
Like, sometimes it is a brutal experience because they have trouble putting it back in as well, and, uh, that's not fun. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. That's worse. They tried, like, seven times.
28:03
The last time, I know I keep using the word seven or the number seven, but it was probably six or seven times they tried.
28:08
And on the, before the last try, the doctor said, "Okay, we're gonna have to put you down, like put you to sleep, if this one doesn't work."
28:14
[gasps] And there were multiple people trying to put my shoulder back in in that moment. There's- There were nurses in pinning down my other shoulder. It's a story for another day.
28:22
So there's, like, people holding you down while multiple other people are grabbing your arm and, arm and just trying to jam it back in like you're a Lego or something. It's like le- it's like Lethal Weapon.
28:31
Yeah, it's Riggs. It's, yeah. Yeah. Riggs. Yeah. That's who you are. Yeah. Time said it. Little bit. I don't know why I brought that up. It just reminded me of, Jason Tatum reminded me of that.
28:39
Tough, tough break for Jason Tatum because next year- Oh... I'm sure you talked about it, probably a wash as well. Yes, a wash as well. I said earliest he could come back, I said is playoffs. That's, that's my timeline.
28:50
Mm-hmm. That's what, that's what they ought to say, unless you're listening to these hack doctors on Twitter who go with the Aaron Rodgers thing just so they can get clicks. Um, okay.
28:58
To the PGA Championship, sir, let us start with outrights. Where are you on that? You know, in events like this, I really am conservative.
29:07
I mean, I'll tell you, it's, it's like the alt events where I'm gonna pepper, like, a five or six-person card because I think there are so many guys, not just the alt events, but some of the, the non-signature, non-major events where I'm peppering the board.
29:17
Here, I, I gotta be honest, I'm taking a couple of short shots, or really just one right now that I focused on. It's Bryson DeChambeau at 14 to 1. I got this at 14 to 1, like, two days ago. It's now down to 11, 10 to 1.
29:29
I also was able to take him two days ago in the without Rory and Scottie market at 10 to 1. So that's where a lot of my money is.
29:35
I did see Patrick Cantlay at 45 to 1, and I know his major championship history is not good, and he hasn't closed lately at all, but I, I can't ignore what I'm seeing from him, which is usually three out of four great days with ball striking and with the putter.
29:49
There's always a lazy day from Patrick Cantlay where he doesn't come through. But again, 45 to 1 is long enough for me to invest. This is really the theme. Kelly, I'll ask you this as well.
29:58
This is really the theme from everybody I've heard about this PGA Championship, is you did hours and hours and hours of research on this yesterday, and in the end you're like, "Here's the most boring bets ever." Yeah.
30:08
That's kind of the theme here. Um- Nobody's straying into- Look, it's, it's, I think I said this yesterday, but it's, if you're a golf fan, I, I think we got an awesome Masters.
30:18
I think we're about to get an awesome PGA Championship. If you're a golf bettor who likes to go further down the board These ain't your tournaments These ain't your tournaments.
30:26
Yeah In my opinion, and it worked out pretty well the first time, Ral, with Rory. But that, but that's more pronounced than, than ever before, it feels like. It's, like, this wasn't always the case with every major ever.
30:35
I mean, this one's even so- Yeah... uh, Sia, this one's even crazier than the Masters to me, and we said a lot of these same things heading into the Masters. But you're talking about Rory off a Masters win.
30:44
You've got Scheffler and Bryson both coming in off of wins. Like, JT has won recently. Like, the, the top of the board is as strong as it's ever been, yes. Yeah. Well. Yeah, I think that's the difference.
30:55
And by the way, I think JT is a good play, too, uh, in that 20 to 22 to one range. I mean, I, I, I don't think I'm gonna add him to my card, but, but I like him as well. I mean, when you... See, here's the thing.
31:04
The last few years, we've, we've caught something that we hadn't had since Tiger Woods, which is a, a couple of people, maybe one in Scottie Scheffler's case last year, but a couple of people that are dominating at the top of the board.
31:14
And when you look at this course, and you look at the PGA setup, it's probably gonna be pretty tough. Receptive 'cause of the rain, but pretty tough nonetheless. The rough is gonna be grown out a little bit.
31:23
Y- you're really, and when you factor that distance thing in there, and you got Scottie, Rory, and Bryson at the top, it's really hard to ignore those three.
31:30
Yes, somebody could sneak up, even like a Sepp Straka like last week, but this is a different type of course. Yeah.
31:35
And I think over four rounds, you're, you're really seeing, like, a top tier that we haven't really seen in some time. You do have a top 30 play, one top 30? Yeah, I usually play Corey Conners in the top Canadian market.
31:48
The reason I'm not doing it, I'm playing in the top 30, is because I do think Taylor Pendrith and Nick Taylor, who, uh, Nick Taylor has good history here. Taylor Pendrith I think has good history as well.
31:57
I, I, I'm kind of worried about them eclipsing Corey Conners in this tournament potentially.
32:02
So while I'm, I, I'm gonna skip over the plus 160 I can get top Canadian, I'm gonna take him plus 105 including ties in the top 30 market. Corey Conners has just been so, so solid. Uh, this entire year he's been solid.
32:15
Uh, at the Wells Fargo as well. The ball striking is there. The putter has largely been there. So top 30, it's kind of a conservative play. You could play him top 20 at, you know, probably plus 165 including ties.
32:25
But I tend to be more conservative in these finishing position bets, so give me Corey Conners there. And Sia, your mister first round leader, uh, bet, you don't have any for this one?
32:33
Keith, well, tee times aren't out yet. So normally I'm on with you guys Wednesday, but because- Oh... of my schedule for the PGA Championship tomorrow, it just, I can't join you Wednesday. So I'll tell you what, though.
32:42
I'll tweet them out. I'm gonna tag you guys in the tweet.
32:44
There are guys I have my eyes on, but I'm looking for morning tee times, and so I'm just gonna kind of wait for the t- The tee times are coming out in, like, an hour or two is my guess. That's an acceptable answer.
32:54
It, it is. Yeah. It's an acceptable answer. We will accept that. Um, all right. Next time we'll do it on a Wednesday. That's my fault. It's my fault, not you guys. Oh.
33:00
Sia bets with me even earlier than I do, so I can't, I, I can't give him any crap. Uh, Sia, any- anything else you want to say about Jayden Daniels before we leave here, or is, that was sufficient? We're good?
33:08
[laughs] I like that. Suitable? I mean- Yeah... listen, y- uh, no, I said, I said it all, but, uh, I, I do think that's actually a pretty good look, especially if you can get 10 to one on Jayden Daniels MVP. I dig it.
33:18
I dig it. Um, and there's a lot of people who are like, "Well, how do we know it's gonna be, uh, good the second year?" Let me just say this.
33:25
If you watched every play like we did, there is nothing, nothing to suggest that there will be anything markedly different this coming year. Right. That's how mature this kid is. Mm-hmm. Uh, thank you, Sia. Mm-hmm.
33:37
Always appreciate it, man. Sia Najad, everybody. Thanks, Gil. Thanks, Gil. Uh, from the Monumental Sports le- uh, Network, and Sport Line, Sports Line as well. We'll come back. Those NFL plays.
33:45
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the numbers game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Dibble alongside. Uh, we got tweets at Beating the Book.
34:04
Let me just read through these, uh, tweets here that we got. Uh, best listeners in the game, by the way.
34:08
Kevin Ryan, "Gil, I had the Padres last night in a large money line parlay, and for the first time in a long time, found myself screaming at the TV and defaming," he says, "the head coach," I think he means the manager, "for not yanking a pitcher who had no idea where the ball was going when it, when it left his hand.
34:22
It was brutal." That's terrible. Walk, walk, walk, walk. After the second or third, you gotta pull.
34:30
Well, the other, the other thing with, like, that excuse, that, doesn't that sound a lot better in August than like, "No, we're sticking with our guy"? I just can't stand.
34:38
I mean, again, Buck Showalter still, uh, hasn't put Zach Britton into that wildcard game against the Blue Jays, right? It's like this, this adherence to he, this is the role he fills, and he must stay in.
34:50
And now Brian's got a tweet. Don't tweet about j- Sia's shoulder either. Brian M. Like, it literally makes me nauseous. Brian M., "I have multi-directional instability.
34:58
In high school, I dislocated/separated my shoulder countless times. Our head trainer worked for a professional lacrosse team before our school, so he started just popping it back in for me." Oh.
35:09
Sia had having it done seven times. Well, five on his own, twice in the emergency room. [laughs] The, the, just the, the picture in my mind of him, like, being held down on a- Oh...
35:17
on a hospital bed while, like, two doctors just, like, grab his arm and yank it in there. Isn't it interesting how, like, certain things land in your brain when you're a kid?
35:26
And I remember nothing else from Lethal Weapon, the Lethal Weapon movies- Yeah... except for that. That stands out, yeah. That's the only thing I remember. Yeah, yeah, 'cause it's disgusting, yeah.
35:32
Mel Gibson looking up at the camera and screaming. And then he'd find a wall to jam it into. That's right.
35:38
The Better Life Tim Lawson, the official, uh, historian of the Beating the Book podcast, uh, he said, "Yesterday Gil mentioned the Crying Kenny story on a numbers game.
35:47
If you've never heard it, it's a great one, and my personal favorite, first told by Chrissy Andrews in 2014 on the Beating the Book podcast. The Crying Kenny story starts," and he logs it.
35:58
So anybody who wants to, uh, listen to the greatest Crying Kenny story of them all, um, famous better that used to roam around Vegas here many, many decades ago, um, there it is.
36:09
Chris, Chris- It's on my, it's on my feed. You can, you can get to the actual, uh, link, and the actual time log of it. Uh, but anyways. Chris always had a, a few funny stories about him, yeah.
36:19
Uh, just, oh, the, the sto- story times were the greatest thing ever- Yeah... on that podcast. Yeah. Are you kidding me? That was the highlight of everything.
36:24
Just Call Me Skip, "Does Sia use mousse, gel, or Gorilla Glue?" Ooh. #HighHair Well, he's got great hair. Uh, there's no questioning that. I don't know what product he uses.
36:35
I'll have to reach out Uh, Andy V, "Bulls were bad with the lottery, however it's a 1.8% versus a 1.7% chance.
36:41
The worst offender was the Heat, who if they lose either play-in game not only end up in the Dallas slot, but by winning a play-in game they forfeited their pick to OKC." But again, with the 1.8 to the 1.7%,
36:53
it's, it's not about that. It's about, again, they won a spate of games at the end of the year to get into that tie with the Mavericks, right? Six of their last seven.
37:01
By the way, it was, the streak was even longer than that, but six of the last seven to just, uh, make it, uh, you know, as succinct as I can. And that got them in the tie in the coin flip. It doesn't...
37:11
Again, the, the combination that was pl- that was picked was in that one, it was in that group of 18, not in the group of 17.
37:20
So the difference being 18 versus 17, ultimately it's not about focusing on that one difference, it just happened to be in the group of 18. Does that make sense?
37:29
It would be any team that landed in that, in that slot- Mm-hmm, yeah, yeah... was going to win the lottery. Um, by the way, our best bets, let's recap them courtesy of G Bank before we move on to these NFL spreads.
37:41
Uh, G Bank, the official bank of VSIN. Here are mine. Um, I made a bet yesterday. I made a World Series matchup bet. Tigers-Padres 66 to 1 at BetMGM. This is not an exacta.
37:52
Doesn't matter who would win the World Series, but just to meet in the World Series, Tigers-Padres 66 to 1. I just love the way the Padres are constructed.
38:00
Not the last night, not last night I didn't, but Tigers-Padres World Series matchup, 66 to 1. Jackson Merrill, NL MVP. I mentioned that I bet this last week. I got in at 50 to 1 at first.
38:10
There was a, uh, let's say a muling of an 80 to 1 was also in there. Mm-hmm. I am still- As it should have been... going to add to this. I am going to add to this at current numbers. This kid is unbelievable.
38:24
He is like, his, his batting average since I made these plays is just out of control. Over 500. He's batting for something for the, you know, his young season. Um, this kid's incredible. Jackson Merrill, NL MVP.
38:37
I have the Pacers adjusted price at plus 191.
38:40
Drew thinks I still may lose that, uh, that I made after game one, and I have the Nuggets price adjusted, series price after game one, plus 267, which I made after game one in that series.
38:49
That series knotted up at two apiece. Kelly Beidelman, what do you have? Yeah, I'm, uh, well, I'm riding with you. I'm just doing Pacers. I'm going Pacers, uh, I think game by game here.
38:58
I, I, I hear Drew where he's got Cavs power rated. Um, I think que- health is still a question though, and this Pacers team is, uh, they're good enough, man.
39:06
They are good enough to get this done, win one of the next three games. So I'll be going money line here on out, uh, for them every game. So money line, uh, on the Pacers tonight for me, and that's it for tonight. Okay.
39:16
Uh, we also heard from, uh, Jay Kahn. He's got the Stars-Jets under six goals in tonight's lone NHL playoffs match up. Two NBA games, but only one in the NHL as they get all series to a total of four games as well.
39:31
Also, uh, we had our, our buddy, uh, Drew Dincic, Cavaliers to win the East at five to one. How about that? Down three to one of the Pacers, he's taking them to win the East at five to one.
39:41
Uh, his remaining tennis plays of the day, Tommy Paul plus 150 versus Alex de Minaur. Uh, Jaume Munar plus four and a half games versus Kasper Ruud, and then tomorrow he's on Mirra Andreeva plus 110 versus Coco.
39:54
Yeah, I might be oppo him. And then in the Preakness, Goal Oriented from the- The number one horse... from the pole position, six to one. Goal Oriented. Yeah. Six to one from Drew.
40:03
I understand his thinking on, on, on the Cavs playing them in the futures market, 'cause it's a little bit of what I did with the Thunder last week, adding them in, in the, to win the finals.
40:12
It's just the, you gotta get past this series- You gotta get past the series... and then you're set up with a great price. Sian Ejad, PGA Championship bets, Bryson DeChambeau to win it all at 14 to one.
40:20
Bryson in a market without McIlroy and Scheffler to win it all at 10 to one, and then Patrick Cantlay, one flyer, at 45 to one. He also has a, uh, top 30 I believe in there as well, right? Yeah, Corey Conners top 30.
40:31
Yep. Corey Conners top 30. Uh, G Bank, the official bank of VSIN, with all of our best bets, every show, every host, every guest, every sport. Get the G Bank Visa signature card today.
40:39
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40:44
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40:50
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41:03
Now, if Steve Fezzik was doing the show this morning, uh, Kelly, he would not have done as much NBA draft lottery as we would've because we're obsessed with that kind of thing.
41:10
You know what he would have done three segments on? [laughs] We, we got spreads, man. We got NFL spreads. NFL spreads. We got 'em.
41:16
[laughs] He's a, he is, uh, he's the kind of guy that would, that will make bets on this now and wait till the fall for them to gr- to cash or grade, um, the results. And, and what do we usually say?
41:29
Mo- for most people, it's usually not that smart to tie up your money that long. Steve Fezzik- Steve Fezzik... I'm not worried about it. Yeah... different animal. That kid's a different animal.
41:36
Uh, here are the, here are the leaks. Here are the ones that have been announced, slash leaks. Uh, we know now the Cowboys are playing the Eagles again opening Thursday Night Football, September 4th.
41:46
Eagles are seven-point favorites. These are all draft kings. I think these are draft kings. Uh, Tuesday, November 11th. Well, I don't know why it says Tuesday, but this is a Monday Night Football game. Eagles-Packers.
41:57
Eagles- Yeah, that's the 10th on Monday. [laughs] Yeah, Eagles at the Packers. Eagles favored by one and a half. The Eagles have four of these games already announced. Friday, November 28th, this is Black Friday, right?
42:07
The, uh, the day after Thanksgiving, biggest shopping day of the year. Uh, Eagles favored by seven at home over the Bears. Anything interesting so far? Saturday, December 20th, Eagles-Commanders.
42:19
Eagles, one and a half point favorites on the road against the Commodores. Disrespectful. Uh, also on Saturday the 20th, Packers at the Bears.
42:28
Packers, one and a half point road favorites, and then on, uh, December 25th, I believe the kids call that Christmas Day. Broncos-Chiefs. Chiefs favored by four and a half Total's also included in all this. Interesting.
42:42
You wanna bet any of those, Kelly? You racing to bet any? No. No. Trying to think what the, uh, most interesting one would be to me. Boop. Rams at Jaguars. Lay the four and a half with the Rams.
42:54
I think I'm gonna be very bullish on the Rams. Wait, what's that one? I haven't even seen that one. Oh, Rams- I wanna see, see that DraftKings. DraftKings has got, looks like a dozen games up here.
43:01
No, they're, they're adding more as we speak. Sunday, October 19th, so this must be... Oh, this is one of the international ones. Oh, the internationals. Here's the international schedule. Oh, well, yeah, yeah. Yeah.
43:10
No wonder why I, I- So we know the international ones also. That's correct. These- Well, now I like it even better- These-... 'cause it's not in Jacksonville. Yeah, these were, these were announced.
43:17
So again, we have one in Brazil. We have one in São Paulo, uh, September 5th, the day after. Remember the, uh, the Packers and Eagles played this Brazil game last year, the day after the opener?
43:27
The night after the opener, Friday Night Football. So the Chargers are gonna be in Brazil. Sunday, September 28th, in Dublin, Ireland, Vikings-Steelers. Sunday, October 5th, in London, Vikings-Browns.
43:37
How about the Vikings going back-to-back in the United Kingdom? And then Sunday, October 12th, in London, Broncos-Jets. October 19th in London, Rams-Jaguars. Wouldn't be an NFL season without the Jaguars London game.
43:50
Mm-hmm. Sunday, November 9th, in Berlin, that's Germany, Kelly, Falcons-Colts. And then Madrid, España, Commanders-Dolphins on November 16th. Das Bundesliga?
44:00
The NFL's dreams, um, Roger Goodell's dream of making the NFL international truly, truly manifesting this coming year.
44:08
You know, you know where my sick brain really goes with this, is like, man, there's a lot of good teaser legs on the board. [laughs] Which would be the most ridiculous thing you could do right now. Oh, man.
44:19
Ladies and gentlemen, we've done all we can do. What a time. NBA draft lottery talk up your JBT. JBT will have his thoughts on that. Story by Natoni. Jonathan Von Tobel next.
44:29
Money Moves right here at VSAN, the sports betting network. Enjoy.
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