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May 14, 2024
A Numbers Game | May 14, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 14, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:08
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin live from Bar Canada here at the D, downtown Las Vegas, Nevada.
0:20
Majestic downtown Las Vegas, Nevada, where it is now getting officially hot. 90s yesterday, Kelly. Oh, man. Yeah. Yeah. It was like 75 even this morning. Yeah.
0:32
I was kind of enjoying the cool mornings we, we woke up to, and then whatever, if it gets hot in the afternoon, it's fine. But that's all done. Summer's here. Summer's here. We get tweets at Beating The Book.
0:40
This is from Brandon Kyles, "I'll speak for Steeler Nation and say we'll all be betting on Muth." Pat Friermuth is not one of the horses in the Preakness. Just wanna make that clear.
0:50
[laughs] Ryan High- I didn't get that right away. There we go.
0:53
Okay [laughs] Ryan High, "Congratulations to, uh, Gil and Kelly for helping the Total Wine and More jingle crack this week's top 20 on Casey Kasem's countdown. The power of ANG and VSiN knows no bounds."
1:05
Bobby Gettys: "I wrote my last law school paper explaining why PASPA should be overturned. My exact conclusion came through soon after. My teacher gave me a B. Come on, man." [coughs] Oh, sorry. Getting choked up again.
1:18
"Come on, man. I did the Supreme Court's job as a law student. I swear I'm not holding a grudge." [coughs] Still getting over the sickness, Kelly. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay. Nevada A's are. You want me to read some tweets?
1:29
Uh, I'll read these final ones, and then you can take over. Actually, you take over. [laughs] Go ahead. Uh, let's see.
1:34
We got, uh, Marlon tweeting in, wondering if JVT's, uh, voicing some of our DraftKings Spring Break commercials. No, not... We know we get a lot of comments recently on our commercials.
1:44
Just a, just a PSA for the audience. And we don't know. We can't hear 'em during the break. Yeah. Like, we, we take off these headsets, we talk for two minutes.
1:51
We thoroughly plan what we're gonna discuss coming up thoroughly- [laughs]... for a whole two and two and a half [laughs] minutes. Thoroughly. Okay? It's all we talk about.
1:58
We don't talk about the music or anything like that. No. Um, Jack, I hear you. Thanks. 3jackh3131, uh, "Gil, you getting choked up thinking about Ben Rodgers come back player of the year?" And, um,
2:09
wants to know if I'm betting Mike Tomlin for coach of the year. Nevada A's are. Never had a losing season, Gil. No. Nevada A's are. "A-Rod is this year's Hamlin.
2:18
When Brady comes out of the booth week 11 to take a team to the playoffs, LOL, just saying." Uh, and then, [laughs] oh, God, uh, this is Chris Hardman. To my question of who's the quarterback laying in the weeds
2:31
a la Joe Flacco this year? He says, "Gil, Ryan Tannehill is still out there." [laughs] Say, come on, man. Oh, no, I need someone further. Uh, like, I need someone that's been further removed, right?
2:44
A little bit more than Tannehill. Yeah, we'll come up with somebody. Yeah. Yeah. We got John on. John Hasselbauer, everybody, uh, joins us. PGA betting and DFS content for the lines, that's what he does.
2:55
You can follow him on Twitter at pgatout. Don't worry, he's in on the joke. Comes to us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, John? Hey, fellas. How you doing? Thanks for having me.
3:06
Thanks for being here. Um, Valhalla this week, the PGA. We started yesterday talking about this by sort of saying we're in the world of Scottie Scheffler for sure now.
3:18
Uh, we've obviously been there for a while, but now we, uh, we seem to be at the point where you could do a whole bunch of golf handicapping, and in the end you might just have to throw out the window because this guy exists.
3:29
Are you getting there? Is that creeping into your mind? Um, I, I think so. I think, uh, I think at, um, at the Masters it was kind of you have to play him because course history is so repeatable.
3:47
Here it's a little more of a decision to be made, um, you know, just because we've never seen him play this course before. Where, where did you land in terms of your outrights? Um, so I'm,
4:02
I'm daring to go against him this week. Um, I began my card with Jon Rahm, uh, who I, I think has a lot going in his favor this year.
4:12
I think he kind of falls off a lot of people's radars with, um, e- everything going on on LIV, but he hasn't finished worse than top 10 in any event he's started in, which I think is still pretty impressive.
4:24
What number did you get Rahm at? Close to 20 to one? I did, yeah. And I think it's interesting that he's flipped that form. He's still, in my eyes, a top three player in the world.
4:34
Is Rahm the only outright that you have, John, or do you bet on anyone else? Uh, in addition to Jon Rahm, I'd also bet on, um... Let's see. [laughs] Let's see.
4:50
It's been a, been an interesting week, uh, of a lot of pivots back and forth on the card, but, um, I did land on Bryson DeChambeau as well at 30 to one, and Patrick Cantlay at 45 to one.
5:01
Just two numbers I think that drifted too far on a Jack Nicklaus design that really suits their game. So Rahm, DeChambeau in there as well. Um, where...
5:12
So beyond outrights then, did you do match ups or have you got a first round leader bet? Where did you land?
5:19
You know, one first round leader bet that I like a lot, I'm, I'm paying attention to the weather because it does look like it's a little bit, uh, of a softer course and some guys are gonna have a little bit of an advantage with the weather this week, uh, but I like Ben An this week.
5:32
Uh, just somebody who fits this course so perfectly well. He's played well in these Jack Nicklaus designs and these longer courses. He's one of the longer hitters in the, in the field, and maybe he's...
5:41
We don't know how he's gonna stand up to the test of a major over four rounds, um, but that's the type of player that I love going after in, uh, the first round before the pressure sets in.
5:50
You know, he, he suits the course very well. So he's a player both in the first round leader market and in the placement market around, you know, a top 20 bet I like on him.
5:59
Um, and then someone in the top 40 range that I think is a pretty conservative placement bet for me is Taylor Moore. Uh, another guy who kind of just like f- games across the board.
6:11
Uh, very well-rounded and playing in good form, finished top 20 at the Masters earlier this season All right, John, I'll tell you what, our connection's not so great.
6:18
We'll, we'll get back to you another time when it's better. Thank you for making the time. Appreciate it, man. Yeah. Okay, thanks. Thanks, guys.
6:25
John Hasselbauer, everybody, PGA betting and, uh, DFS over there, um, @Pgatout, once again, is his Twitter handle. Does, uh, PGA betting and DFS content for The Lines, uh, joining us for the PGA Championship.
6:38
Sorry about that connection, uh, but it sounded, uh, very echoey. Um, Kelly, you did your research on, uh, Valhalla yesterday. Ready to go. Long Shot Special coming up, uh, tomorrow morning is when it airs.
6:51
I'm recording it today. [laughs] Outrights, who'd you end up with? I have two. I do not think I will be adding anything more. Um, I bet Jon Rahm as well. He had drifted to 20 to one. I am in on Jon Rahm.
7:05
Uh, that is a, that is pretty much just a number play. P- two outrights I bet, pretty much just number plays.
7:11
The win equity at the top, I think when you are talking, you're talking Scottie Scheffler, and now you're talking Rory McIlroy coming in off a win. You're talking Brooks Koepka coming in off of a win.
7:21
I, yeah, it's Scheffler, and then there's two other guys that hold a bunch of win equity at the top. So I, I, my outrights are gonna be, it's gonna be light this week. It's gonna be two.
7:31
Um, I might add in tournament once I get a look. I don't think it's as simple though, Gil, with the other guys playing.
7:37
You know, Ma- McIlroy's, I mean, if you want, it was a team event, but it's two wins in a row for him.
7:42
Yeah, I'm not, I'm not gonna treat that as it's completely nothing, and Brooks Koepka coming off a win a couple weeks in a row of some of his best putting that we've seen in a while out of him, I think he's a little live, too.
7:54
A little bit more l- you know, more live than these other guys, and I don't think it's just Scheffler that we're talking about for this week. So I, I found that interesting really digging into stuff.
8:03
Jon Rahm, though, at 20 to one, like, it, it's still out there.
8:07
That was the number I kind of was like, "If I see Jon Rahm anywhere with a two starting in front, I'm gonna have to get involved," 'cause that is, this is just by- When was the, when was the last time we saw that?
8:18
Oh, boy. Um, probably a year. I, I [sighs] I don't even know, probably not last year. It's probably been a couple years, but that's, that's the point, right? Yeah. This is just, it's... No, he hasn't been great.
8:28
He hasn't won on LIV yet. He also hasn't finished outside of the top 10 in a single event on LIV yet, right? Yeah. So if he was still on the PGA tour, you're not seeing 20 to one on this guy.
8:39
This is 14 to one, 12 to one, something like that. So I'm really playing a number there on him. The other guy that I played was Wyndham Clark, uh, at 40 to one.
8:48
This is gonna test distance off the tee big time this week, uh, at Valhalla. He is big, big hitter off the tee. Almost all the guys I bet this week, um, are long off the tee.
8:58
I think that's really gonna be a, the truest test this week, both the length and accuracy, 'cause, uh, the rough gets really brutal here at Valhalla.
9:05
I bet him 40 to one, um, and you know, just the guys that can win, right? He's won three times on tour in the past, uh, in the past year. He's a guy that can get it done.
9:14
He's gone, he's gone up against Scheffler before and got it done. So it's me picking guys I actually think can win. I don't think I'm gonna add any more outrights besides those two.
9:24
Uh, outside of that, it was really getting into top 10s, top 20s, where I think there are some, I think there is some value that you can attack, uh, on the board.
9:31
I know one of the guys that really stuck out to me, um, was Keith Mitchell, who I've played a lot this year, but you're talking, um, a lot of top 20s this year.
9:41
He has seven top 20s in his 12 starts, long off the tee, good on approach. Last 12 rounds, fourth off the tee, 14th in distance, 15th in approach. No, he's not good around the greens. He's not a great putter.
9:53
Um, a lot of the guys I'm targeting this week, yeah, they might not be the best putters. They're gonna have to s- have a spike putting week to get it done. I got a five to one on him, though, to finish top 20.
10:01
I love that bet. Played a couple longer shots. Um, ta- talked with the Xander one already. Xander top 10, that was the first bet I made, plus 150. Lock it in, forget about it. Uh, hopefully that gets home.
10:11
Um, Keith Mitchell, and then Adam Scott was the other one that I played top 20. Adam Scott. Adam Scott, who I haven't, I haven't bet a ton this year, Gil, but he just keeps popping up. Yeah.
10:21
Whenever I run numbers, kind of real- he's just hanging around, hanging around. Old, uh, uh, was it Johnny KGB? Who was the guy? Not Johnny. Um, from Rounders. Forgot his name. Do you... Let me ask you a question.
10:34
For this, for this tournament, do you end up having more bets on the PGA than you do on a standard tournament b- only because there's more bet offerings? So I don't think so.
10:45
F- for, for myself personally, also being here in Nevada, I think it's a great question 'cause I don't know if I was, if I was here in Nevada I would answer the same way. Um, but, uh, Teddy KGB just hit me. Uh, [laughs]
10:57
I think if I was outside Nevada, possibly. For this tournament though, not r- overall, no. The Masters for sure, right? The Masters are posted for longer.
11:06
You've got all that lead up time to kind of add bets through the first couple months of the season as you see guys, "Hey, I think he's looking good. He could look good at Augusta. Let me bet him now." I don't do...
11:16
I know some people do that in the weeks in between. There's only a couple weeks, obviously, in between the Masters and the PGA. There was nothing I added before yester- that I bet before yesterday for this tournament.
11:25
Okay. All right. Um, we hope Hasselbauer is okay. I know that segment caught him off on by surprise, so we're, hope everything's all right there. Uh, Long Shots live tomorrow. Yes? That's right. Vsi.com/podcast.
11:37
I will be doing a Beating the Book podcast after this show, our Q1 MLB derivatives pod with Mark Borchard. So, uh, something for everybody.
11:45
By the way, we'll come back the other side, we'll update the Guardians bet, my tennis bets, that and more next. A numbers game on VsiN, the sports betting network.
12:00
Back on a Numbers Game presented by Zyn nicotine pouches, America's number one nicotine pouch. Find out more, of course, at zyn.com.
12:08
About that Long Shots, uh, podcast, by the way, in-depth preview of the PGA Championship with VsiN's golf betting experts on the Long Shots podcast. It's called Long Shots.
12:16
Wes Reynolds, Matt Brown, and Kelly Bidlin, maybe you've heard of that guy, break down every aspect of this year's second golf major, including their best bets.
12:22
Subscribe and download the podcast with a new episode out, well, tomorrow. Or check out the live airing Tomorrow at noon Eastern, 9:00 AM Pacific. VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:32
Are you out today or are you out tomorrow? It's, it's airing tomorrow. We're recording it today. It's very confusing. It's very confusing. Um, we get tweets at VSiN- Yeah, when you see me wearing the same shirt...
12:44
No, I didn't wear it two days in a row. [laughs] Or I didn't change after a numbers game, run over to Circa tomorrow in five minutes and change. [laughs] All right, this is fairly amazing. We get tweets.
12:54
We, we talk about all kinds of random stuff, and it, it always is interesting what hits.
12:58
And we're talking about Comeback Player of the Year in the NFL next year, and of course we're lamenting that we're talking about Comeback Player of the Year in the NFL next year.
13:04
But I brought up the fact, okay, who's the Joe Flacco out there this year, right? Who is the guy that nobody's thinking about? Uh, someone said Ryan Tannehill.
13:12
You said, I think correctly, "No, he's got to have been out of the league for a little longer to fit the Joe Flacco bill." Well, we've gotten at least three different tweets. Yeah, like what's Chad Pennington up to?
13:21
Yeah, no. [laughs] We've gotten at least three different tweets from... And, and it's about the same player. You ready for this? Any guesses? Logic3227. We, we...
13:32
Three people have tweeted in the same name- The same name... and it's not Tom Brady? And it is not Tom Brady. I don't, I don't know. Go ahead. Logic3227, "P. Rivers, Comeback Player of the Year." Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
13:46
Okay, okay. Brian M., "Your outrageous long shot Comeback Player of the Year, straight from the delivery room to delivering Ws. Someone cue- [laughs]... the Philip Rivers music."
13:55
Steven Vegas, "By now you'd have th- you'd have thought that the shine of driving around the country in an RV with 16 children in tow has rubbed off.
14:03
A scenario of Herbert out for the year in week 12, Jim Harbaugh, fellow RV lifer, calls in Philip Rivers for the help, and he wins Comeback Player of the Year." [laughs] Hey, he fl- That's a guy.
14:15
Th- those are good answers. Those are good answers. I mean, he fits the Joe Flacco, uh, mold, right? Like, if you just need, "I need a dude with arm strength," coming off the couch- It's a-...
14:24
who can still sling the ball... it would be a way better story than Flacco. Yeah, really. Actually, it really would. Way better. He must have gotten a call. He must not want to come back. I think you gotta eliminate him.
14:35
Wait, people, were, were people really calling Joe Flacco before they were calling Philip Rivers? No, I think Philip Rivers is always on speed dial with pe- with folks.
14:41
I think he is too, but it's- He's like, "No, I'm busy." [laughs] What are you busy with, Philip? [laughs] And by, and by I'm busy, I mean he's getting busy. [laughs] If you know what I mean. Uh, okay.
14:51
Uh, real quick on a couple bets that we have going on. So just the French Open, 'cause we talked to Drew about the French Open. So we are... Listen, how many years removed now are we?
14:59
We're, we're four years removed away from Iga winning her, uh, debut French Open, uh, in 2020, when she won it at 30 to 1. But she is roughing a doll on clay, on, uh, specifically at Roland Garros.
15:12
And yes, like every year, we have Iga bets. It's just not sexy. Um, got her at minus 116. I do have her parlayed with both Joker and Carlitos.
15:22
Um, but I ask the question for a reason, because we have the Alcaraz injury, uh, and obviously Joker, we just have no idea what's going on with him after that just horrible loss to Tabilo after the bottle fell on his head.
15:35
Is this the year to take a flyer on a long shot on the men's side? And maybe it is. Maybe it is. I may add a Swiatek, Casper Ruud, Kiniella, if you will, to that list. But that's what...
15:44
It's, it's about Iga, and it's about pairing with Iga, and that's a really the long and short of it. It's the, it's why we don't have to do full segments on it here.
15:52
But we will do a French Open preview podcast, hopefully with Drew, hopefully with Dan Weston, uh, coming up next week.
15:59
As far as the Guardians, the Guardians, if you remember the March/April bet on the Guardians, people had betted at Circa, like myself, then there were others who had betted at DraftKings, there were others who had betted at William Hill Caesars.
16:12
We all know how that went down in the final day, a dramatic rollercoaster loss on the last out, uh, at 65 to 1. I did, as you know, the day, day before, I re-upped on the Guardians for May.
16:25
The way that their schedule played out was sort of the flip, which is to say that the hard part was not at the end like it was in March/April, but that the hard part was at the beginning, and then the easy part of the May schedule comes at the end.
16:37
Uh, we're not quite halfway through the month of May. Um, the most wins in the month of May belong to both the Phillies, the defending March/April champs, if you will. Did they get rings for that?
16:48
I, I think they had a whole ceremony. [laughs] Again, why SportsCenter didn't lead with it, I have no idea. Um, so the Phillies won with 20 wins in March/April.
16:58
The Phillies and the Dodgers both have nine wins so far in May. They're both nine and two in the month of May. So they're in the driver's seat. Um, we do have a couple teams with eight wins.
17:08
Those are the Twins and the Yankees. Twins and Yankees about to play each other. Uh, so they are at eight wins. Um, and remember, the tiebreaker, eight and three, by the way. Phillies, Dodgers nine and two.
17:20
Twins and Yankees both eight and three. Tiebreaker at Circa is, again, number one is fewest losses, number two is best run differential. The difference in this is that DraftKings did not post a May market, Kelly.
17:34
So we don't... We're gonna have about half the number of listeners out there who are on this bet this time. Uh, Caesars William Hill is a dead heat situation.
17:42
Seven wins, that's where the Guardians are, but there's a bunch of teams with seven wins. Padres, Orioles, Rays right now are all seven and four. Royals are seven and five. Guardians, seven and six.
17:54
So that's where they stand right now. Um, the bugaboo for the Guardians thus far has been they had a series against the White Sox. You remember how I did it series by series? Mm-hmm.
18:04
We'll show that after the, uh, Rangers series here. Um, but it was all within one game prediction-wise, series by series, up until the White Sox series, where Cleveland went one and three. Oof.
18:16
So they have a chance to make it up here against the Rangers, 'cause I had them going one and two against the Rangers. They won the first game.
18:21
So if they're able to win a couple here against the Rangers and sweep, they will have made two of those games back. Um, but right now they're about three games worse than I thought they needed to be.
18:32
Can get to two games worse and one games worse here in a... You know, one game worse here in a couple days, and be right back in this.
18:37
But right now, that White Sox series got 'em, and so the Guardians in a scrum at seven wins, two games be- two wins behind both the Phillies and Dodgers. So that's where that stands.
18:48
If that makes sense Still a long ways to go though Long ways to go Only, and only two wins out And only two wins out, and they, and the, and the reason we made this bet again is 'cause they, they c- conclude- Which-...
18:56
with the Angels, the Rockies, and the Nats. So, like, there's a flourish that could happen at the end. I mean, would you have t- if I had told you before May- Yes...
19:08
right, before you made this bet [laughs] that you were gonna go one and three against the White Sox and only be two wins out, like, you'd take that scenario. I would take it, but that was part of the handicap.
19:16
I, we're looking at it series by series. Right. Yeah. But it's still disappointing 'cause they shouldn't have been one against the White Sox. Right, exactly. Yeah. Yeah, you should, you should have the lead right now.
19:24
I should have the lead again. [laughs] Uh, we'll see how it goes. Oh, man. Anyway, that's where we stand on both of those. Uh, all right, NBA tonight. Kelly, we didn't get your thoughts. Pacers-Knicks, game five.
19:34
Series knotted up at two games a piece. We're back at MSG. Knicks favored by one and a half, total 217. I'm on the Knicks bet. I'm on the Knicks bet. Uh, did, d- did dabble.
19:43
I, I'm not gonna s- this is not a big bet for me by any means. I had all the series stuff, kinda bought off series stuff after game two and the Anunoby injury. Anunoby's i- is huge, but you're going back to MSG.
19:54
That crowd is sh- has just been electric. I think you're gonna get...
19:59
You, you, you got a little bit of time to rest some of the, you know, some of the Nova three and, uh, in that blowout game in, in game four, so we'll see how much that helps. Brunson's gotta be better.
20:10
I mean, if Brunson's not great, this team's, uh, probably not going anywhere. But man, there's still... I, I know there's no Anunoby, Gil.
20:17
I can't get my mind around, though, half court offense, half court defense, I still think the Knicks have a slight edge over the Pacers.
20:24
The Pacers did exactly what they should try to do last game and get out and run, run, run and get these guys tired and go deeper into the bench. Knicks, you got... I mean, they're gonna be Luka with the ball.
20:35
It's Brunson. Bri- take all the time you need bringing the ball up the court. Um, so I understand. I, I, I like Drew's under, uh, too. I would definitely lean that way.
20:44
Um, I actually did a silly little, if you wanna join me on a silly little same game parlay, I actually did a Knicks money line and alt under and Deuce McBride over his PRA. Uh, do think we're gonna see a little...
20:55
We're, we're gonna see precious Sachua start. I think Deuce McBride you're gonna see more of, though, um, like you did in game four.
21:00
Some of that was due to, due to it being a blowout, but I think he's gotta be a little bit, uh, a bigger part of what we've seen. The other one that, like, everybody's going crazy over Alec Burks. Okay, i- it- it's fine.
21:11
He's had a couple good games. Those are b- he, he didn't really do anything all season, so I don't really expect him to be a m- big, big part of the conversation these next couple games.
21:20
But McBride, McBride's been there, man, so I, I, I think playing some overs on him tonight- Better-... um, could be a good look... better puncher's chance against the Celtics, Knicks or Pacers? Knicks.
21:29
Still Knicks to me. Even with the injuries? Yeah, even with the injuries. It's still the Knicks. Pacers, even with their ability to score out of the gym? Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Uh, T-Wolves Nuggets.
21:40
The nightcap tonight, game five back in Denver. Denver having taken a two to nothing deficit and knotted it up at two a piece. Nuggets favored by four. I'm seeing some four and a halves as well, 206. Yeah.
21:48
I'll be watching the movement here this afternoon. If this hits five, I'll probably be in on Minnesota lightly. I, much like Drew said, though, I don't, I don't see a huge edge here tonight.
21:57
I, I can't wait to watch this game. From a betting standpoint, though, uh, uh, I'm definitely not in the camp of thinking this is over [laughs] by eight. Yeah. Like, hey, Denver won two in Minnesota. Nor should you.
22:07
They'll come back home and they're rolling from here. We just saw Minnesota win two games in Denver. It can happen.
22:13
Um, I don't think we should be th- pretending like the Nuggets are just running out, running away with this thing at this, uh, at this point. There are players on Minnesota that gotta p- play better.
22:21
I give 'em a chance, though. Gil, if you're gonna give me five, I'll probably take a small bit of it. Otherwise, I'm passing and just watching this one tonight. You worried about your Mavs bets? Oh, yeah. Yeah.
22:29
No, I mean, I was worried about that at the start of the series. Yeah. But they took the two to one lead, I guess is what I'm saying, and then, yeah. I mean, I said yesterday, I thought Thunder were a good bet yesterday.
22:37
I thought they're a good bet this series. We'll come back. Baseball with Paul Spohrer, soccer with Paul Carr. We got some plays for you. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:51
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Visit vsin.com/subscribe today to claim your 14 months of VSiN Pro for only $199 with promo code ANG. Gil, we're slashing prices on everything from Adam Burke baseball articles to betting splits and more.
23:50
Slashing prices on Adam Burke baseball articles. Wow. Yeah. It's vsin.com/subscribe. I lied to Adam Burke. I said I was only barring the Guardians for March and April. Yeah, you did. You lied. Total liar.
24:02
We get tweets at Betting The Book. Tom FT for three. This is the best tweet of the morning. [laughs] He said, "Bad form, Gil. Sneak attacking guests, catching them by surprise." [laughs] That's so great.
24:13
Tim Lawson also texting in the same. He said, "Did that guy know he was on a live show, or did he think you guys were just chatting on the phone?" Did seem like we caught him uh, by surprise there.
24:21
Nick G, "Off subject, but coming to, uh, Vegas end of June, staying at Aria.
24:25
Besides coming to the D to see you guys," oh, that'd be great, "uh, listen to the Vegas Lifestyle pod, definitely going to some of your restaurants. Any other recommendations?" Kelly, you have any lately, uh, late to...
24:36
restaurant remen- recommendations- Hmm, good question... that you've discovered of late? No, no, nothing recently. Man. Nothing new at least, yeah. You know where I haven't been in a long time, which I miss? Yardbird.
24:48
Good spot. Go f- fried chicken over at Venetian.
24:50
Brian M- You could stay in the Venetian for two weeks and not lea- uh, like not leave and be completely happy Oh, there's- There's so many good restaurants and stuff there... a lot of places you could say that about.
25:00
Yeah. Brian M, uh, he says, "The, the correct French Open parlay in Poland is Poland meets Greece." Uh, he was joking. He says, "Or Kot Soccer." He goes, "No, but really, Iga Tsitsipas."
25:09
I don't hate the Iga Tsitsipas either. Uh, again, just anchor it around Iga. She is Rafa Nadal. Ladies and gentlemen, he comes to us from Austin, Texas. You can follow him @spohr on Twitter.
25:21
He works for FanGraphs, and he's down with OTP, which he'll explain. It's Paul Spohr, everybody. How you doing, Paulie? Courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Thanks so much for having me on.
25:31
Uh, can you explain what OTP is? We never really delve into that for you. O- O- Out of the Park Baseball.
25:37
So it is a, uh, baseball simulator, and frankly, if, if you're a betting nerd, uh, and I say that with, uh, love, not slander, chances are you would like a baseball betting simulator.
25:48
Um, you can play lots of different ways, but the thing that I do is called Perfect Team, and it's a card collecting game where you collect cards of real life players from over the years for different, uh, you know, stages of their career.
26:01
You can get a rookie card for a player. You can get their best season for a player. You put a team together and it simulates against other human opponents.
26:07
So Gil, we could both create a team of different players and then our, uh, the simulator would, would play us against each other. You have a season throughout the week.
26:17
Every day is a month of, of games, and then on Sunday is the playoffs if you make it.
26:22
And then there's one-off tournaments that you can play where maybe you can only use the silver cards, which are kind of like mid-tier level players, and then we go against each other there.
26:31
So it's a lot to explain, but basically- Wow... it, it, it's, it's computerized fantasy baseball in a way. That's kind of the quickest way to, to say it. I love it. You- Remember Strat-O-Matic? You remember that game?
26:43
Which game you said? Madden, you said? Stra- no, Strat-O-Matic. You remember? Strat-O-Matic. Strat-O-Matic back in the day, yeah.
26:49
Computerized version of that, and Strat-O-Matic has their own computerized version of their game. But that's the probably easiest way to describe it to people that know what Strat-O-Matic is.
26:57
Wow, and you are creating the player profiles, basically? Yeah, all the content for that Perfect Team game there. So, you know, one week, one week we'll release Ken Griffey Jr.
27:07
Well, we're not gonna put out Mike Trout the next week 'cause that's another center fielder, and, you know, you want to give some time for the Griffey Jr. to kind of be the king of the hill there, and then you move on.
27:16
So you gotta space out the content from March to the following February and kind of plan how it fits in accordance with real baseball, too.
27:23
I do stuff a- around the draft, you know, with rookies and prospects in, in July there. Uh, playoffs of course, October. So it, it's a lot of fun. It's a lot of work, a lot of puzzle pieces.
27:33
It gives me a, a newfound respect, even though it's not the same thing, a newfound respect for the schedule makers. You know, we're always clowning those guys, "Who made this schedule, man?
27:41
Why is there only five games today?" [laughs] It's not easy when you got a lot of restrictions, you know? Taylor Swift concert coming into town, you can't book for five games over here or whatever.
27:49
They gotta deal with a lot of restrictions. I have to deal with a lot of different in- interesting restrictions like that, too. That was a spectacular imitation of me. "Who made this schedule today?
27:57
Why aren't there more day games?" Uh, all right. You're wearing a San Diego Padres hat. Now, I, uh, my favorite season win total, I had two I made. I made the Cubs over. Uh, Cubs off to a great start this year.
28:09
They're now 24 and 18. Uh, they've sort of mellowed a little bit. Off to a great start, now they've... Still, still- Oh, that's fantastic. Yeah... a 97 pace.
28:20
Yeah, still right there, uh, a half game out of the, uh, lead of the NL Central.
28:23
The other one I loved was the Padres over, and the Padres started slowly, and then I had, uh, Steve Fezzik, uh, text me and be like, "Oh, your Padres aren't doing so well." And I was like, "Pipe down. Give it some time."
28:33
Yeah. And here they are. They're, uh, they're 500 now. Big favorite tonight against the Rockies. What has gone right for the Padres, and how bullish are you on them right now? Yeah, I'm, I'm actually pretty bullish.
28:44
I'm mostly wearing this 'cause I was out there this weekend, uh, a quick little San Diego jaunt. Got to go set the record, uh, for the Petco attendance. All I'm saying is that they never set a record b- until I went.
28:55
That's right. [laughs] So if you want to say the record is me, that is your decision. But they never set a record until I went. I go, they set a record, ergo, vis-a-vis, ipso facto, I was the record setter.
29:07
Anyway, what's gone right for them? Quite a few things, in fact. Uh, and it was starting to look a little dicey early on.
29:13
Again, like, are we gonna have another season where we have to kind of wait for the talent to come through 'cause we know the talent is there? No, it is finally coming through.
29:20
I will say in a weird way, and I don't ever root for injury, but maybe having Jo- Joe Musgrove on the shelf a little bit, not bludgeoning the team every fifth day- Yeah... um, has, has kind of helped.
29:31
Although Randy Vasquez in his stead hasn't been great, but the rest of the pitching has. Dylan Cease has been amazing. Darvish has been amazing. Michael King's been more good than bad despite having some bumps.
29:41
Waldron's been up and down, and then Musgrove, of course, was struggling. Hopefully getting healthy will be great for him. Robert Suárez is a, you know, unfortunately only the second best closer in California.
29:51
Thanks Ma- Mason Miller there in Oakland. But, um, you know, the best in the National League right now. Robert Suárez has been amazing. The bridge to Suárez has been fantastic, so they're not blowing leads.
30:02
You know, remember their one run record last year, their extra inning record? The offense is going pretty well, and they've even got a few guys that are in a lull, like Xander Bogaerts specifically.
30:11
I have no real concerns about him. Profar's been god tier and kind of picked up the slack for maybe some of the stars that aren't super starring, right? Like Machado hasn't been great.
30:21
Bogaerts hasn't been great, and Tatis has been good, but not god tier. Well, Je- Jurickson Profar's kind of picking up the slack for those guys. So they've got a lot of things working.
30:30
The, the Luis Urías trade was great. The fan base is a billion percent behind them there. That was a heck of a game.
30:35
Of course, I will say that the record was set at least in part due to the fact that the Dodgers were there, and they had a very strong contingent. But this Padres team is good.
30:44
I like what they've got, and we know that they'll remain aggressive.
30:46
A big injury or two, like, they're still gonna go out and try to replace guys, and so they're gonna try to be there all the- all year, even though they have to go up against that juggernaut Dodgers team.
30:56
Give me the team, either AL or NL, 'cause someone was asking me the other day about the Oakland A's, and the Oakland A's have been- Absolutely pesky. They're 19 and 24.
31:04
And you can bet specifically who's going to end up in the number six position, uh, for the playoffs in either league, which is obviously the, the last position, which is a really interesting thing 'cause you can get really favorable odds on that kind of thing.
31:19
Give me just generally the team that is sub-500 right now in baseball that you think is the best of all of them, and the one that you have the most hope for heading into a post-season. That is really interesting.
31:33
I'll take one of the easy answers and say, like, I'm still pretty keen on the Diamondbacks despite some things not going their way at 20 and 22.
31:40
Corbin Carroll looks really off right now, although that new, uh, bat speed metric over at Baseball Savant says his bat hasn't slowed down. I know there was a lot of speculation there that with the shoulder,
31:51
maybe the bat has slowed down a bit, at least from a pure velocity swing standpoint. It hasn't really, although th- this is the first year of that data.
32:00
But then for a team that is maybe a bit more off the radar, you mentioned the A's and they have been pesky. They've got Mason Miller as the best closer in baseball, and they are hitting bombs.
32:08
But push come to shove, I just don't think they have enough horses. I'll tell you the team that could still do it. They started strong and then immediately hit a lull.
32:16
I still am pretty interested in that Pirates ball club. Mm. They need to figure out some offense. Uh, Skeens, you know, Matt, talked with Matt Brown in this slot last week. We were pretty excited about the Skeens debut.
32:28
I feel pretty good about that. Uh, we told people, you know, you could still go out there and get a Rookie of the Year ticket. He didn't go out and have the best debut, but you saw how it works, right? Like, you...
32:37
It makes sense how this could definitely work, and four innings, three runs is hardly a bad start when you've got seven Ks, two walks. That's not too bad.
32:44
He and Jared Jones, Skeens and Jared Jones at the top of that rotation are really, really strong. The offense needs to start pulling their weight. There was a lot of excitement about Oneil Cruz coming into the year.
32:53
He just recently hit the IL. They have to hope that when he comes back, he's ready to kind of do what he was supposed to do. Oneil Cruz has finally started to turn the ship around.
33:02
Jack Suinski, Henry Davis, like, they've got some pieces, but they would need to start pulling their weight. The pitching is pulling their weight right now. I do think the Pirates are still pretty intriguing.
33:13
And then one other team I'll say is the Mets. If Kodai Senga gets going when he comes back, they could find enough pitching, and I think they have a decent enough lineup too.
33:22
So the Mets, Pirates, and then, um, uh, like I said, the Diamondbacks are kind of an easy one. Paulie, great seeing you. Appreciate it. Congratulations on all the, uh, on all the gigs. Thanks. Appreciate it, Gil.
33:33
Take care. Paul Spohn setting records in San Diego. @Spohr on Twitter. Paul Carr on the Premier League and more. Little Crawley Town next.
33:49
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. The NBA playoffs are heating up, and so is the action at DraftKings Sportsbook an official sports betting partner of the NBA.
33:58
New customers bet five bucks to get 150 in bonus bets instantly. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now and use code VSin only on DraftKings. The crown is yours. Gil Alexander, Kelly Vidlin.
34:10
Uh, our next guest, uh, requests that Ben Wilson, uh, take over this chair once again, because apparently when Ben was here on Friday, he went three and O. So apparently it's Ben.
34:20
Uh, so if he doesn't go three and O, it's clearly my fault.
34:23
Ladies and gentlemen, it's Paul Carr from Topeka, Kansas, True Media Networks, and of course, the Expected Value Podcast, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. What's happening? What's up, Gil?
34:32
Uh, always happy to talk to you. I'm glad we got our differences out- [laughs]... uh, aired morally so we can move on with our day. [laughs] That's right. We can move f- we can move on.
34:39
Hey, before we get to your Premier League thoughts, Crawley, Crawley Town, Preston Johnson- Yeah... co-chairman of Crawley Town. This is real. Uh, they are in the championship on Sunday against Crew.
34:55
Uh, if they win- Yep... they are headed up to League One. This is unbelievable. Yeah. It's wild.
35:03
I mean, there's nothing like this in American sports where you just earn your way up and you can be, you know, a Crawley Town type of team where you were, you know, non-professional for a long time.
35:13
Now you're inching your way up and got a shot at the, the third division in England, which is, you know, it's, this is a, I'd say it's a higher standard than say AA or something in baseball.
35:21
So th- yeah, this is a pretty wild story. It's a great ride. It's incredible.
35:24
By the way, Jason Weingarten, our buddy, uh, Jason Weingarten, who's tied into the team as well, he is flying to London Thursday night- Oh, yeah... to go to this game. He actually texted me.
35:34
He's like, "Do you wanna go to London?" I was like, "Yeah, easy, buddy." Oh. I'm not, can't just go on the drop of a dime. Uh, but they're at Wembley, and this is just, I am, I cannot- Yeah... this is, what a story, man.
35:44
Wrexham schmecksom- It's great... as my mother used to say. Yeah, that's right. This is the story. Why don't we do the show on the road that Friday? That's right. Should we go to Wembley? Yeah. That'd be awesome.
35:52
What do we got to do, Gil? Come on. I've got the D, for God's sakes. It's a big day. What's gonna happen to the D if we leave? Uh, now wait a minute, before, so there's that.
35:59
There's Crawley going from, uh, League Two to League One. You have some play also in, in League One to the Premier League in one of these? Yes.
36:07
This is the championship, which is the second division to the Premier League, so they're at the semifinal stage, the second leg.
36:14
Uh, I mean, this is a cliché pick of taking the under in these matches, but the first legs were last weekend. Both ended nil-nil. So I like Leeds Norwich City under two and a half at minus 105.
36:25
That's the second leg on Thursday. Leeds' defense is good. Norwich's best striker, Josh Sargent, American, may not play because of injury. This just feels like a classic grind it out.
36:34
Someone wants to win this one desperately one-nil. Okay. Le- without further ado, let's go to the Premier League table. Arsenal at 86 points with one match left, Man City at 85 with two left.
36:48
Now, um, this is obviously a game between Man City and Tottenham, and there are some implications here that you would like to go over. Well, uh, yeah. The title stuff is short and simple, uh, for City.
37:02
You know, they win this, they're in the driver's seat to win the title this, on Sunday Tottenham still has a shot at Champions League. They probably have to win both games, th- this one and the finale.
37:12
Or they do have to win both games, and hope Aston Villa does not, uh, win on Sunday. And they're also still fighting for a Europa League spot to f- if they finish fifth.
37:20
Uh, they just need a point the last couple games to get those.
37:22
But the weird thing is, there's a lot of Tottenham fans hoping that Tottenham loses this game to Man City just so their rival, Arsenal, does not win the title, which is pretty wild to me.
37:30
[laughs] But because Tottenham has stuff to play for, that's probably not gonna manifest, correct? No. Yeah.
37:38
I mean, you can root all you want, but I mean, you know, it's the same thing with, you know, the NBA and tanking and things. Like, the players aren't tanking.
37:45
The tanking comes from, you know, coaches or GMs or putting the team together or something. Tottenham's still gonna go out there and, and do their best against City.
37:51
I don't think it's really gonna matter 'cause City's a lot better. But yeah, they're not gonna, you know, lay down and let City roll in this one, without at least trying.
37:59
Now, isn't there some ownage between Tottenham and Man City, recent history? Uh, City's kind of struggled in London a little bit, but, uh, in general, City has had the better of Tottenham for the most part, so.
38:12
I mean, it, it... Just to move to the play, I don't see how City is gonna drop points in this game especially, but I just think they're gonna roll. They're cooking.
38:20
Uh, they've won, let's see, seven straight games, all by multiple goals. They've scored four straight in six of them.
38:26
Now, most of those opponents weren't all that great, but they still beat Villa 4-1, they beat, won 4-0 at Brighton, and those teams are, you know, similar or better than Tottenham. Um, Tottenham has injury issues.
38:35
They've lost four out of five. Um, th- they do have a little to play for, but City's healthy and cooking. I, I will lay the goal in a half gladly at minus 110 on Man City here.
38:44
Man City minus the goal of the half against Tottenham. Okay. Uh- Yeah... that is- And that's today, just to be clear. That, that's today. Okay. Uh- Yep... T- tomorrow you have a play as well.
38:55
Um, Newca- Newcastle is also on the outside looking in, but they cannot get to the Champions League. They are too many points down. Right. But they are taking on Man U. Yeah.
39:06
Newcastle has an outside shot at Europa League, but they need Tottenham to lose both games.
39:10
Uh, they're kind of in the conference league, which is like the, you know, CBI or whatever of European soccer at this point, so that's something. I don't know that it's a huge thing, but it's something.
39:19
Uh, this is really a fade of Manchester United, 'cause they just look absolutely cooked. Uh, one goal in their last three games on the offensive side.
39:28
They've only had one shutout in their last 13 games on the defensive side. The defense has tons of injuries. The midfield looks washed up. Uh, so I played Newcastle to win a plus 155 last night.
39:39
I've seen it down close to, like, minus or plus 130 already today, which is, is getting thin. But Newcastle, I mean, they're not cooking.
39:46
They look a little tired as well, but Alexander Isak, Callum Wilson, their two forwards up top, have five goals in their last three games.
39:53
They're averaging over three goals and three expected goals in the last three games. So this is, you know, just take the good team on the road getting plus money, 'cause United looks like they are done for the season.
40:03
So let's get back to the, uh, top of the table here. So you have Man City beating Tottenham. Yeah. You're laying the goal in the half. Um- Yep... all right.
40:10
So regardless, then, of what Arsenal does, Man City will still be in the driver's seat heading into their game against West Ham. That's no gimme. Correct. That's no gimme, right? It's not, it's not a gimme.
40:20
West Ham also looks like they've kind of been on the beach for a few weeks. Uh, their manager is leaving at the end of the season.
40:26
So it's not a gimme, but it's City at home, and it's hard to imagine, you know, them losing at home to a, you know, mid-table team at best.
40:35
Um, but then we can go back to, like, 2012, Man City just had to win at home against QPR to win the title, and that's when- Right...
40:41
QPR, it's the old Aguero scores the last kick of the game, waves his jersey around and everybody else.
40:46
That was the game City should have rolled in as well, so, you know, the old Chris Berman, "That's why they play the games." [laughs] That's why they play the games.
40:54
So this kind of game today, again, Man City and Tottenham, like, where does this rank in the Paul Carr excitement hierarchy?
41:01
Like, if you go not only Premier League, but alth- also other national leagues, and then of course the international- Yeah... leagues as well.
41:08
This pre- I mean, this is kind of as close as you get to, say, a, to compare it to the NFL, a conference championship game.
41:15
It's kind of a semifinal where, you know, City cannot wrap up the, the title here, but if they win this, they're in great shape going to the last day of the season. So it, it's kind of at that level.
41:24
Like, look, we're amped for this, and then there's just the weird factor of all these Tottenham fans who seem to be selling their tickets. Not sure what attendance is gonna be like. Are they gonna be rooting for City?
41:33
That's kind of just a weird wrinkle on top of just your usual, you know, title race and, you know, semi conference championship type of game. Okay.
41:41
Uh, and then Olympics, we're still a good ways away from talking about that, or any o- other additional thoughts on the Olympics? Nope, we're still, still waiting.
41:49
I mean, for, from a US perspective and a lot of these countries, uh, we'll see what kind of rosters they name for some of their early summer stuff.
41:56
The US has Copa America, Euros, things like that, which may give us a clue as to what the rosters on the men's side might look like, uh, for the Olympics.
42:05
But until we know, like, who those players are, on the men's side especially, it, it's tough to bet. And the women's- Yeah... uh, women's side is set.
42:11
We know what we have there, but there's no Germany to bet on, so I'm just confused. So you're, you're confused. You have no idea what's happening. Yeah. Paul- I, I, I don't know what to do.
42:18
[laughs] Paul Carr, uh, Man City today, minus goal and a half against Tottenham in the big one, and then tomorrow Newcastle at plus 155 against Man U. Thank you, Paul. I appreciate it. All right, Gil.
42:29
Talk to you this weekend. All right, and if he doesn't go two and oh, consequences. Absolute consequences. It's gotta be for you. Gotta be, gotta be me. [laughs] For you.
42:39
You're the, you're the- Why, why do you have John Glazier? [laughs] You're the neutral. You're the neutral in all this. He's here to watch right now. He's like, "Hey." He's here, he's here to watch the podcast.
42:46
[laughs] Better get a couple winners, Gil. He's like, "I can't wait to watch the podcast." You're sitting on the hot seat. Ben Wilson's ready to step in right away, okay?
42:52
Uh, podcast schedule again, uh, Q1 baseball derivatives today. You've got long shots coming up after that today. Yep.
43:00
Um, again, for PJ Valhalla, and then, uh, next week a little French Open podcast with a little, uh, Weston and Dinsic. Nice. Let's get Dan Weston back out there, baby. Yeah, we haven't seen him in a while.
43:11
That'll be great to see. Dan Weston had some, uh, health issues and so we're, we're glad that he's passed them, so we look forward to- Yeah... uh, to talking with him as well.
43:19
Um, all right, and then NBA, just to, uh, clarify again, your plays tonight are? I'm on the Knicks. I am on the Knicks small. Did a little, I did a little, uh, same game parlay too.
43:27
I think, I think you, the, I think total's pretty correlated to side tonight. Like, if you like the Pacers, you're probably liking Pacers team total over or over for the game.
43:35
Um, if you like the Knicks, I, I, like, which I do a little bit tonight, um, like Drew said, I, I think it's gonna be their, their style [laughs] when it's gonna be ugly. It's gonna be physical.
43:45
It's gonna be back to some of the games we saw, game one, game two in Madison Square Garden, where I think referees probably come into question over some calls. Uh, it wouldn't shock me at all if we see that tonight.
43:56
But I'm expecting a little bit lower score in game two. 17 feels pretty t- pretty high for me. Um, so I did a little, uh, what'd I do?
44:02
Kn- Knicks money line, uh, an alt under on the total, and Deuce McBride over on his p- points, rebounds, and assists. And Nuggets-Timberwolves, unless I see a five, I'm staying away.
44:11
I think that's gonna be a great game tonight, though. Great game to sit back and watch. Yeah, absolutely. All right, let's go Guardians. We've done all we can do.
44:18
Uh, if you're on the radio side, go Joe with Gola Guard next. If you're watching the pictures, it's Best Bets. Enjoy from Visa, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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