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May 14, 2025
A Numbers Game | May 14, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | May 14, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSIN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
This is a numbers game at VSIN, the Sports Betting Network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM Channel 158. Gil Alexander. Kelly Bidlin with a freshly brushed beard moments ago.
0:24
What's up, dude? I'm just gonna, like, hide it with the microphone. That's what I'll do this first hour. You were totally in your seat five seconds before this. Yeah, I, yeah. Well, well done.
0:31
I don't need the, uh- Yeah... the 90-degree one stray hair sticking out, so I appreciate that. It had a fadeaway thing going on today- Yeah... and a dimple. Right. That's what happens when you fall asleep on the couch.
0:40
When you shaving that thing? When do you think? What do you think? Never. I don't know. Never? I don't know. Yeah. You know how many people would freak out if I just walked in with a shaved baby face tomorrow?
0:49
[laughs] You're scared to s- scared to know what you look like, huh? I, well, maybe there's a little bit of that too. Oh, oh. Most people think I've had this forever though.
0:57
Like, I didn't start growing it till I, uh, took the job at VSIN. Yeah. Well, I'm sure this is a fascinating conversation for many. Yeah, yeah, it's pretty good.
1:04
Uh, Jason Weigart on the show today to give us all his plays from under a cloud of smoke. AJ Schulz, uh, Schulz as you pronounce it. I'm, I'm trying to, I'm trying to claim him or something.
1:13
[laughs] Uh, AJ Schulz, co-host of Puck Cast, talk some, uh, NHL playoffs with us. JVT will join us, uh, to talk National Basketball Association. Do we need to get his was it rigged or not rant?
1:23
Do we need to, do, do people need to hear that again? Maybe they do. I don't know. I, he's- I think it's been a thing on Money Moves. He's kinda, he's kinda angry about it, uh, the people who th- who claim that it is.
1:32
We'll get to him. You thought, um, you thought I, uh, was, was bending over to allow for a little bit, but he d- he allows, he allows for no possibility of a rigging. Uh, PGA Championship preview, that is the main thing.
1:43
We are 24 hours away from golf's second major of the year. Uh, Will Hill will join us to give us all his bets, NBA and Major League Baseball, and, uh, you can bet on this, where will Giannis play next season?
1:55
Bum, bum, bum. The Bucs are the favorite? Bucs are the favorite. Really? Do you believe that? I mean, he has to be traded. It's always one of those situations, right? So I- Yeah...
2:04
yeah, I think they should be the favorite. Okay. Uh, we'll get into that. That's a little portent of things to come. Yeah. Uh, the NBA last night, ladies and gentlemen, my goodness.
2:13
Um, I don't know, those who say that the NBA playoffs has not lived up to the, uh, to the billing, they probably aren't watching the NBA playoffs. Yeah, I don't get that one. Yeah, I don't either.
2:22
The Indiana Pacers are the first to advance to the conference finals, East or West. They do so by, uh, beating the Cavs in five. 114 to 105 winners yesterday. They were eight-and-a-half point dogs.
2:34
They not only cover, they win it outright, and they do so once again with style. Cavs led by as many as 14 in the first quarter. They led by 12 after, uh, the first.
2:44
They led by as many as 19 to the Cavaliers in the second quarter, and then the, uh, with 8:20 left, they led 44 to 25. Pacers then went on a 27 to nine run, uh, that cut the lead to one. Cavs led by four at the half.
2:57
Halliburton, by the way, in that run, uh, he had 17 points at the half, but in that run, he hit four three-pointers in a two and a half minute span that were j- was just incredible.
3:09
Uh, Cavs ended up going back up nine in the third quarter, 63-54 with 9:44 left, but then it was all Pacers. They took their first lead at 65-64 with 7:04 left in the third.
3:20
They extended it to 10 as part of a 21 to two run. 21 to two, that's pretty good. 2:41 left in the, uh, quarter. The Cavs didn't get a field goal for a seven-minute plus span. That'll hurt you, Gil.
3:35
That is not good basketball. Uh, Ca- uh, excuse me, Pacers would extend it to 12, um, during that quarter. They'd lead by nine after, after three.
3:45
Um, Cavs got into it with a five-point play, uh, when Hunter made a three, got fouled, missed the free throw. They got the rebound.
3:52
They put in a bucket from Garland, so they got it within one with 9:24 to go, but they'd never get over the hump. They would never, ever take the lead despite d- being down one there.
4:04
Um, Pacers would get it back up to nine, 106-97 with 2:38 left. Down 106-100 with 1:49 left.
4:10
This was prily- pretty much the biggest moment, or at least the one that will be etched in Cavaliers fans', I think, for the off-season. 106-100, 1:49 left, you're down six. Donovan Mitchell fouled behind the arc.
4:24
Misses not one, not two, but all three free throws. Yeah. Pretty incredible. Oh, boy. Uh, Cleveland would get the ball back.
4:31
He'd hit a three to cut it to three, but then Nembhard three'd the hard way to get it back to six, and it was, uh, Katie bar the door after that. Pacers win it 114-105.
4:39
Your 64 win Cleveland Cavaliers dunzo, and the Pacers on their way to taking on the winner of either the Knicks or the Celtics. That, of course, is in game five tonight.
4:51
Uh, game five tonight back in Boston without Jason Tatum, who, yes, it was confirmed ruptured his Achilles, and the Knicks up three games to one. How about them Pacers? Yeah, man, re- uh, really impressive.
5:02
Look, I mean, uh, impressive season from them.
5:04
Um, I think both these teams have kind of been, you know, when you look at postseasons past, it's okay, how, how far can the Pacers really go, get back to ani- another Eastern Conference finals?
5:14
Have they outplayed their ability? I think this season is a better example of where this team can be and where they're truly at. There's so much talent on this team.
5:24
They've just been, they've been kind of frustrating in the past. Halliburton hasn't had consistent, uh, games. He's started to put it together the back half of this regular season and into the playoffs. Been great.
5:33
And for the Cavs, man, it's just, it's tough. I'm not gonna, I, I'm not gonna hate on 'em too much here, Gil. Like, it was an amazing regular season.
5:40
You got caught with injuries here at a bad time and, um- Can we talk about that for a second though too? Yeah.
5:46
Because I, I have said on this show, I was like, "You know, poor Cavs fans, f- poor Warriors fans," and now one could say, "Oh, poor Celtics fans," obviously moving forward with Jason Tatum.
5:54
But let's, let's kind of be honest about this.
5:57
Um, the Celtics, in the case of Tatum, it was alr- it was seconds away from being three to one in that series, you know, w- with Tatum completely on the court the whole time un, until he ruptured that achin- uh, until he ruptured the Achilles Um, so obviously the injury there didn't matter into what that series is to date.
6:16
With the Pacers, Darius Garland didn't play in game one. Uh, Pacers crushed them. Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Deandre Hunter, the three of them didn't play in game two.
6:28
That was the one where they built a 20-point lead, the Pacers came all the way back and beat them. And so... And then the Donovan Mitchell injury the last game, they were already getting housed. Mm. Right?
6:40
At half- by halftime the game was over. So I'm not sure. I mean, I do feel bad for Cleveland on the one hand.
6:46
I'm not s- on the other hand, I'm not so sure the outcome of this, you can make a credible argument that it would've changed. Oh, no, I, I think it's... That's kind of where...
6:54
Well, I think you just laid out the injury stuff perfect. Some of that mattered more than others, right? Like Donovan Mitchell, I'm not sure how much that ended up mattering.
7:00
Well, what I'm getting at is I think the only, the only one of these where the, where the fan base can legitimately say, "Yeah, I mean, what are we supposed to do?" Is the Steph one, right? That's the only one.
7:09
The Warriors are up one to nothing, he gets hurt in the first quarter of the next game. Or was it the second quarter? I can't remember.
7:15
And that completely changes everything with that team, 'cause that team is not as talented, right? Sure. As, as the other ones. So- And T- and Tatum, it happens too late to, to really matter.
7:23
Yes, I- I, I, I agree with that... so as, as, as sucky it is for those teams, technical term, for all these injuries, I, I only think in the case of the Warriors did it ultimately matter.
7:30
This is where, like, I think this is in between. I think this is in between. Maybe. I mean, this is- Maybe. We'll never know...
7:35
you play game two with three- without three of your best five players, Garland missing multiple games, and he had a massive season for them. It's just, it, it... 'Cause Gil, I am, I'm somewhere in between on that. Yeah.
7:46
I don't wanna take away any credit from this Pacers team because even if all those guys were healthy, I'm not saying we're sitting here today that the Cavs would've definitely have won this series. Yeah.
7:55
So it's just, it's tough and it's... But, you know, from the Cleveland side of things, if you're a Cleveland fan, Cleveland backer, man, this is another playoffs where it just all goes wrong. It all goes wrong. Yeah.
8:06
And it's, it's maybe for a different reason this time around, but it, it's just, it, it's gotta get frustrating after, after a regular season like that.
8:13
Tied for the third most regular season wins without getting to at least a conference final, these 64-win Cavaliers.
8:20
And then last night, the only series that was two to two in the, uh, conference semifinals, OKC and Denver. What a ball game. Uh, OKC jumped out quick, 12 to two lead. Denver erased it immediately, 18 to four.
8:31
They had a 16 to... A 16 to two run made it 18 to 14 Denver.
8:35
Um, Nuggets would have an 11-point lead during the second quarter, but a nine to nothing run by OKC to wrap up the quarter made it just a two-point Denver lead at halftime.
8:45
Um, but then the Nuggets opened up a 12-point lead, 80 to 68 with 5:05 left in the third. They led by eight after three. OKC would get it to 92-92 with just under six minutes left. They took the lead at 98-96.
8:59
OKC up 103-100. This was the moment where most people just went ballistic. It was, it was unbelievable. Jokic, a turnaround one f- you know, one h- what was it?
9:12
Like off one leg turnaround jumper from the top of the key for three. I don't even know how much of the, like, rim he even saw when he released it. Yeah.
9:19
And tied it up at 103 with 1:40 left in the game, and that was maybe the most awesome moment for Denver, but it was the last moment for Denver. Because from there on, an eight to nothing OKC run to ice it.
9:31
Jalen Williams three put them up 106-103. A Porter Jr. miss, then SGA three, 109-103. Porter Jr. and Gordon missing threes, followed by two SGA free throws. 111-103 with 22 seconds left. 112-105 is your final.
9:44
A 34 to 19 fourth quarter for Oklahoma City. Jokic 44, 15 and five in defeat. SGA 31, six and seven in victory. Um, just a, just absolutely amazing. Yeah. Absolutely amazing.
10:01
And, and, you know, game fives in, in series that are two to two, usually a portent of things to come. Would you take a flyer on the Nuggets 25 to one to win the title? Um, no, but I don't hate it.
10:14
Like, I wouldn't personally. Obviously, I've got a ton of Thunders tickets. I don't hate it, though. I, I think I will be betting... Because of my, because of my Thunder tickets, I think I'll be...
10:24
I, I have to do this on the money line, but I will, so I don't middle myself, I think I'll be betting, uh, uh, Nuggets in game six. I think we're going seven in the series. But this is- I really want it to go seven.
10:34
I just wanna see it... I, I, I am terrified if it does, Gil. Like I, I don't know. I, I feel I definitely lean Denver in g- in game six.
10:41
I might just be rooting for my futures tickets and, and, and hold, and hoping and praying this doesn't go to game seven.
10:47
But to back up the Thunder, we talked about this the other day, massive fourth quarter the, in game three. 34 to 19 last night in the fourth quarter. Yeah. Ma- massive fourth quar- I'm sorry, game four.
10:57
Massive fourth quarter in game four to keep this series alive. It felt like if the Nuggets won that, it felt like all this momentum was gonna swing Denver's way.
11:04
And another fourth quarter last night where they're down entering it, and credit to Lu Dort who didn't see a second in ga- uh, in game four in the fourth quarter, nailing those three threes to make it a game again.
11:16
Uh, this, th- this team might be growing up in front of our eyes, Gil, 'cause some of these concerns we've had has been a lot about the playoff maturity. Teams who trail at the half in this NBA playoffs- Incredible...
11:28
now 45, 21 and one. That's 68%. 45, 21 and one against the second half spread this year's postseason. 10 in a row, by the way, since May 9th. Thank you to Evan Abrams for that little tidbit. We'll come back.
11:44
Tonight's games in the NBA, some bets perhaps or not, we shall see. That's next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:50
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN Sports Betting Network Don't forget, vsin.com always available to you. Today, you can check out Mr.
12:06
Ed's Preakness Stakes horse profiles. Hey, Mr. Ed, I didn't know that.
12:10
Mike Savage's Preakness Post Pace report, Wes Reynolds' PGA Championship preview, and later today you can check out Jonathan Davis' NHL props and picks, Zach Cohen's NBA best bets, Tyler Shoemaker's WNBA MVP picks.
12:23
Right now you can sign up for our annual subscription. Get 14 months for only $199 with promo code BRO. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. Skill Alexander, we get tweets at Beat The Book.
12:36
Uh, Rick Olie, "I think what most people fail to understand is that the Pacers are built to win in seven-game series. Teams aren't built to play this speed every other night over a series.
12:44
Mix in nagging injuries and Pacers' depth, and they're a nightmare matchup for most. Cavs were gassed." It's- Rick, great point... it's the coolest thing about watching them right now. It, it is, it's that.
12:54
It's, it's when we... We've gotten so used to the NBA when we get into the post-season of half court offense mattering so much that we see these pa- It's why totals go lower, right? The pace slows down.
13:04
Possessions slow down.
13:05
Everyone becomes so much more important, and it's so fun to watch the Pacers, Gil, where it is, "Okay, you're gonna make a layup or a dunk on us, we look at that as an advantage because we're inbounding the ball right away, and whoever's just dunking and still hanging on the rim, you're playing five on four now."
13:21
And [laughs] then the other way, as soon as they score, they're pressing the ball right away. It's fun to watch. You don't see it often in the NBA.
13:27
You think the rest of the league, uh, regrets doing that overrated poll on Haliburton? I don't know, man. It's been a thing with... And you know what? I, no, I'm sure they don't regret it, and- They should...
13:37
yeah, like even Haliburton, there was a great story in The Ringer, uh, earl- it was, like, a couple weeks ago, just Haliburton talking about kinda some of the mental stuff he's had to go through the past couple years, and where he's at, at a total different mindset now with his game.
13:49
Uh, Pacers reaching the conference finals in consecutive years for the first time since 2013 and 2014.
13:55
Indiana, the first team since seeding began in 1984 to reach the conference finals in consecutive years as a four-seater lower both times. That according to ESPN research.
14:05
Uh, what about tonight's games before we move on to, uh, the tennis pick that remains today, uh, the May wins update, and a little, uh, little Giannis prop. Boston, four and a half point favorites tonight, Kelly.
14:17
Game five, they try to stave off elimination, of course, without Jason Tatum. That's why that's down to four and a half.
14:22
And then in a potential closeout, Minnesota, Minnesota on their home court trying to close out the Warriors, that is a 10 and a half point spread. Total 202 and a half. Any plays on these games tonight?
14:34
I don't have anything yet. I'm going back and forth on this Boston, New York one. I, the si- look, the side in Gold- Golden State, Minnesota, I, it's Warriors or nothing. Warriors or nothing. I, the- I agree...
14:45
you're, you're talking about a total that's barely over 200. You're catching 11 points. Um, I, it, it's Warriors or nothing on that one. I don't think I'm gonna get there, but, uh, it would be Warriors or nothing there.
14:56
I, this Celtics Knicks game is fascinating to me. I might take one more stab at the Boston Celtics before, uh, bef- before I expect- [laughs]... the Knicks to close this out in game six.
15:07
Just keep running your head into that side of the mountain. Well, no, it's just, it's one of those in, you know, the whole fallen hero thing.
15:13
You know, does this Boston team show up and play a little bit better, uh, with Tatum out? I, it, you know, I, I could see that happening tonight. So, um, I don't know. Nothing in the accounts yet.
15:22
Might be a stay away on all the, uh, both of these tonight, but I'll tell you, for the contest I gotta start making some picks. That's for sure.
15:27
Well, and I was just about to say for the, for the contest, what Kelly's referring to, the VSAN Killer Sports NBA Playoff Challenge, the brainchild of Carl Sack. Steve Fezzik in the lead, by the way, at 19 and 10.
15:39
Zach Cohen just one game back at 18 and 11. Dang, he keeps racking up wins. Doug Kaziri at a half game behind Zach at 17 and 11. They are one, two, three.
15:49
Um, I was just gonna say, I'm glad I only have one play left this round because this is slim pickings now. I have... This is tough to even come up with the play- So what was-... in these last games...
15:58
was it yesterday or Monday on the show when I brought up, I'm like, "Dude, I got like three or four more left to go and I'm getting worried." You have a lot, you got a lot left now. I still have three left.
16:05
Yeah, it's too many. And I'm, like, looking at the board. I'm like, "I gotta s- I gotta force. I have to force stuff now." Yeah. Kelly, where are you right now? You're in sixth place, tied for sixth.
16:14
The, uh, real quick before we move on, Pacers, probably a bet for me in the Eastern Conference Finals. No, I was gonna say, so Pacers, Pacers, Knicks, who's the favorite in that series? Knicks win.
16:25
The N- the Knicks will be a favorite, huh? The Hardwood Handicappers trio were kicking this one around last night.
16:29
I believe JVT talked to, uh, Jeff Sherman over at the Westgate too, and we kinda had price pr- pretty much same. We, I was guessing, me and JVT were guessing minus 140.
16:39
Zach was guessing a little bit higher, thought that Knicks bias would come into play a little bit more at minus 1, like, 80. Sounds like it's gonna be probably about minus 140, 150 on the Knicks.
16:48
Yeah, I'd be on the Pacers too. I'll be in on the Pacers. Yep. Um, real quick, we have one tennis play left today.
16:53
Uh, hit Coco Golf earlier this morning, vsin.com/picks for all subscribers, every host, every guest, every sport. Uh, you heard me mention I was gonna be on golf yesterday when Drew was on as well. So Coco wins.
17:03
We went 2 and 0 yesterday. Coco wins this morning. We have one tennis play left today, and that is the over, the over in games in the Aryna Sabalenka Qinwen Zheng match. Uh, Qinwen Zheng, Q-I-N-W-E-N, last name Zheng.
17:19
It's a Sabalenka match. That's all you have to know. Over 21 games. Sabalenka has dominated her in the few times they've played before, but never have they played on clay. So I expect this to be much more competitive.
17:29
Over 21 games, that's a, uh, ladies semi. Is that a semi or a quarter? It's a quarter, pardon me. Ladies quarter in Rome in the Italian Open. Uh, added more to Jackson Merrill MVP, by the way.
17:42
Added another 25 to one last night. Um, the pa- What, what, it jumped all the way down there? Yeah, added another one. He d- he, he did not get a hit last night though, so I added to 25. So 80 to 150, 125 to one.
17:53
Pacers plus 191. Uh, my plus 191 series price from after game one cashes. Cha-ching. Cha-ching. Still have that Nuggets plus 267, though they're down three games to two. That's not looking as great right at this moment.
18:05
Um, as far as the Padres, as I mentioned with Jackson Merrill, Padres May wins.
18:09
Padres do get a win yesterday at home against the Angels in dramatic fashion, and it required the Angels to be a Little League team, throwing the ball around the yard. A couple wild pitches scored runs for the Padres.
18:21
[laughs] And then at four to four in the ninth, Fernando Tatis two run bomb, Padres win. Padres in sixth right now.
18:29
So this is a, uh, this is an interesting day because Two teams at the top, the Cardinals and the Twins, nine and two and eight and two respectively, they both got rained out in their respective games yesterday.
18:39
So both of those teams play double headers today. So we shall see where this cookie crumbles, uh, after today. Padres, their final game against the Angels tonight in San Diego, which I'm told means... No, never mind.
18:53
[laughs] Uh, Padres. So it's Padres seven and four, so again, uh, 15 games left after the Angels. Uh, these are the remaining teams they play.
19:00
They play the Mariners, they play the Blue Jays, they play the Braves, and then they close easy with the Marlins and Pirates. So let's go Padres. Let's get these wins, man. Come on. Let's go, fathers. Come on, fathers.
19:12
Get it together. Again, William Hill Caesars stuck for six figures, Circus stuck for s- six figures. Let's do it all together. Um, okay, Giannis. Back to basketball for a second.
19:23
Where will Giannis Antetokpo, Antetokpo play next year? First regular season minute played for which team? It's down to that kind of language.
19:33
Where will he play his first, uh, for who, for what team will he play his first regular season minute? Um, now what does that mean?
19:39
Does that mean that if he got hurt after 30 seconds and then he played for a different team after that, that this wouldn't count? Like, I mean, I don't know why they word it that way.
19:47
Anyway, Bucks, the team- They're trying to do the whole first snap thing. That one- I, I know... the one year that, uh, who was it? Ro- Roddy Brown with the Dolphins?
19:54
I think they have, but I feel like it ha- no, it happened once they started posting these, posting, like, the first snap stuff. Yeah. And then it w- it didn't go to a quarterback somehow.
20:02
So they've, they're trying to be as specific as possible. I don't think we really have to do this with basketball, but okay. Bucks minus 145, where Giannis plays currently, obviously. Bucks minus 145 is the favorite.
20:12
Here is next on the list, though. The Spurs at plus 350.
20:16
Again, the Spurs have not only the second pick in the draft per the lottery, they also have the 14th pick in the draft courtesy of the Atlanta Hawks and the Dejounte Murray trade.
20:24
They also have the reigning Rookie of the Year in Stephon Castle as perhaps trade, uh, assets for a Giannis trade, potentially. Rockets are seven to one. They're the next team in this. Could they use Giannis?
20:37
Darn right they could. By the way, uh, Rockets don't seem to share the love for Kevin Durant that Kevin Durant seems to love them with. They're like, "Yeah, I don't know about you, KD." Mavericks are next, though.
20:49
The Mavericks have the first pick in the draft. They're 12 to one.
20:53
So it goes Bucks, Spurs, Rockets, Mavericks, and then way down on the list at 30 to one is the Thunder, who again, we had a bit of a discussion yesterday about this.
21:02
If the Thunder were to somehow get bounced early, might they be interested in trading all of their draft picks and some players for Giannis? Where's the bet, sir?
21:11
I mean, if I had to make one sitting here today, it would probably just be on the Bucks at a short price to co- for him to come back there and play. Um- Money... I mean, again, he has to be traded.
21:21
He has to be trade- so there's even a chance. I mean, they, they, think about, this is where the wording becomes important, like he'd have to get moved this summer, right?
21:28
They, they, the Bucks could theoretically hold onto him and then trade him in season, too. I, I, you know, it's hard to figure out exactly what they're thinking timeline. That's, that's the rub right there. Yeah. Yeah.
21:37
That's the rub. So it's hard to really figure- Yeah... out what they're thinking timeline-wise.
21:42
Um, a- and the other part that's tough for me as a huge Giannis fan, [laughs] Gil, is to put, try to put myselves in the front office shoe, the shoes of the front office in Milwaukee, where you're just, this is where the Dallas getting the number one pick and the Thunder possibly being an option is huge because it's so hard to sit there and think you're getting remotely close to fair value back for Giannis.
22:04
Oh, you can't. You're just trying to get something before the guy- Yeah... walks out on his own, right? So I, I li- I think that's tough and the, and Milwaukee's gonna have to get over that.
22:12
If I had to make a bet today, it'd probably be the Brooklyn Nets at 30 to one, just seeing a longer number with a bunch of things that they have the ability to piece together.
22:21
Um, I think that would be the best bet on the board if you had to bet something right now. I'm gonna s- I'm gonna s- You know I'd love to see him in San Antonio. I'm gonna say Mavericks 12 to one. Okay.
22:30
Hey, Nico, if he's- Does that involve the first overall pick? Yes, it does. Of course it does.
22:33
If, if you're, if you, you know, meant what you said before, the defense wins championship, and you obviously wanna- And you've got a window... you obviously wanna take away the stench of the Luka trade.
22:41
There's your, there's your move, man. 12 to one. God, I love it. By the way, Kelly, just for the record, said he's a big Yukons fan, in case you missed that. [laughs] Coming back with Will Hill next.
22:49
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22:56
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23:08
Let's go, Alexander. Kelly Bidlin alongside, of course, on a numbers game. We get tweets at Beating The Book. Paul M., "Last two games, Denver bench a total of 18 points, and Westbrook 18 points in his last three games.
23:19
Conversely, OKC 57 points from the bench in the last two games." Yeah, I mean, that was, uh, that's a spot they, they shoulda had an advantage at all series long.
23:28
I, it's, it's, it's good for my brain that Russell Westbrook has started to look like Russell Westbrook again at his age and not, like, hitting every corner three that's available to him.
23:38
Uh, my brain was having trouble processing that, Gil. Uh, I believe it was outside of Jokic, one for 15 from every other Denver Nugget in the fourth quarter last night. Outside of Jokic and Murray, I believe.
23:49
Jokic and Murray? Yeah. Okay. I believe so. Steve the Proxy. Hey, what's happening, Steve? "As a Knicks fan, I'm going to assume the Eastern Conference Final versus the Pacers is what's gonna happen.
23:58
Are you ready for two weeks of insufferable interviews and highlights," oh, you're so right, "of Spike and Reggie Miller? You think NBC might overplay that angle?" Oh my God, yes. We absolutely will.
24:09
There's probably, like, three d- three mini documentaries in the works already- [laughs]... just to set it up. Have you seen Reggie Miller score eight points real quick? Yeah. Watch it again.
24:16
Johnny Ringo, "The difference between the Eastern Conference Semis and the Eastern Conference Finals. Guess. Guess what the answer is, Kelly. Classic case of the Cavs and the Cavs nots," he says. [laughs] Hey yo.
24:27
Yeah, I see what you did there. That's pretty good. Dad, dad jokes on my Twitter feed. Nice job, Johnny Ringo. Las Vegas 514, "Yo." The 14th of May, yes, today, is a very special day. He's right.
24:38
PASPA was overturned eight years ago today. Eight years? No, seven years ago today. Pardon me.
24:44
Seven years ago today, PASPA was overturned, and my, and this is Las Vegas 514 talking, and my sports betting life changed forever. Did I mention it's also my birthday?
24:52
Thanks for you and Young Kelly for being the gift that keeps on giving. What a nice tweet. Thank you, Las Vegas- Yeah, that's awesome. Thank you... 514.
24:58
Yeah, seven years ago this morning, producer number three and I, the great Georgie Bueno, Jorge Mondaca and I,
25:06
uh, we did the, uh, we did a numbers game at that time, and the Supreme Court revealed the cases that they would be ruling on at exactly 10:00 AM Eastern, 7:00 AM Pacific, and they would pull these, you know, these, these things out of a box.
25:20
That's how high-tech it is, right?
25:22
They'd pull the, the subjects out of the box, and Jorge would have to, every time that there was a date where we knew that the Sup- Supreme Court was going to reveal whether or not they were gonna rule on cases, he, we would have to prepare two shows.
25:35
One would be our normal show, and the second show would be in case they decide to rule on sports betting.
25:41
And so this happened a few dates beforehand, and then on May 14th, 2018, Jorge with his back to the basket, I'm being the basket, he looked at it, he turns around [laughs] and if, if he could have gone ashen white- [laughs]
25:54
Georgie Bueno would have been ashen white, and it was the morning, and it was overturned, and so we did a whole show, and it was amazing. Oh, man. It was amazing in real time.
26:01
Now, we could argue about what's ensued from there, but that's a whole nother subject for another day. Uh, let's talk some, uh, let's talk every sport, everything he's betting. With Will Hill, everybody.
26:11
He's the host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast, and of course also, uh, the star of the Megapod, the star of Chris Fallica's Bear Bets podcasts, uh, and he does, of course, a regular show now on VSIN, Thursday and Friday nights.
26:23
Yes, Will? Yeah, VSIN Prime Time, Thursdays and Fridays with, uh, with Matt Youmans, and then Live Bet Saturday, Live Bet Sunday on the weekends. So, uh, busy. It's been fun.
26:32
It's Will Hill, everybody, in case you, uh, didn't understand who I was talking about here. All right, let's start with the NBA. Uh, it is a, it is the business end of the, uh, conference semifinals.
26:42
Doesn't make the betting easier in my humble opinion. What about you? Got anything tonight? Uh, we talked, we'll start with the bad.
26:51
We talked this time last week, Gilly, and I think I texted you right after Curry get, got hurt, and I said, "Man- Yeah... I have the Warriors. I, I bet the Warriors 60 to 1 to win it all right before the deadline.
27:00
Of, of all things, thinking Durant to the Warriors was possible, and I said, "This is not good."
27:04
I, I, I was skeptical that they could win a game without Curry, and they almost did on, on Saturday in game three, and that felt like, it really, even at the time, that was the one they had to get.
27:13
They're just so undermanned, overmatched. I, I would actually lay it here with Minnesota. Uh, I would go back to Warriors team total under 95 and a half. It bit me in game four.
27:22
They went way over, but under in game two, under in game three. They just, they just don't have any shooting. It's, you, you hope Hill gets hot. You hope Podziemski gets hot. Butler, he's al- such a strange player.
27:33
Some nights he can do it, and then some nights- Yeah... he gives you the 14 points he gave you in game four. That's gonna be a raucous home crowd.
27:38
How about Minnesota, a franchise that has not had a lot of his, uh, success historically, chance to go to back-to-back conference finals and really surprising conference finals appearances each year.
27:48
So it's just, I think it's gonna be a coronation tonight. I, I would look to lay it with Minnesota and go under 95 and a half the team total with Golden State.
27:55
It's just tough, and especially, I know you're not gonna like this, Gilly, I, I love Curry. Who, how could you watch basketball and not love Curry? You'll wonder if this was his last chance to get to conference finals.
28:05
With the way the West is stacking up, now Dallas is gonna get Flag. Who knows? Maybe the Spurs get Giannis. The Lakers have Luka, Jokic, the Thunder. Uh, maybe he gets back there next year.
28:14
Maybe they could figure something out, but it's just a bummer. They, I, I don't think they were winning it all, but I think they were very live to beat Minnesota, but not, not gonna happen. I, I think Minnesota rolls.
28:24
Uh, I like the Knicks plus the points, but- You know, I have no counter, I have no counterargument to that, by the way. Yeah, it's- I think you're absolutely right. Yeah. I'm sorry. Go ahead. It's tough. Yeah.
28:30
It's tough. And I like the, I like the, uh, the Knicks tonight, and you know, Kelly, you brought up a good point, the fallen hero theory. Uh, there's almost no pressure on Boston now. Everyone's kicked dirt on them.
28:38
Their best player's hurt. I wonder if they come out relaxed and play a good game. Sports can be funny that way.
28:43
That being said, I, I'm not, I, I'm not looking to lay points with this team with how this series has gone, and, you know, it's always dangerous to play amateur psychologist, but you're, you're really gonna lay four and a half points with this Celtics team after all these leads they've blown?
28:54
Tatum's hurt, and not, he's not just hurt like he rolled an ankle or pulled a hammy. He, he's gone for a while. He's probably gone for next year.
29:00
There's, who knows what this franchise looks like going forward with all the stuff they have to put, to pay in terms of their salary. Uh, will Tatum ever be the same?
29:07
I mean, that's a devastating, devastating injury, and now you're gonna lay points with them? I can't do it.
29:11
I, I think the Knicks, uh, I'll take, I'll take the points, and I think they have a decent chance to close them out. Those are, those are my thoughts at least for the games tonight.
29:18
I think what the, with this basketball talk over a few segments has, has gotten me to is that I've got one play left in this, uh, round of the challenge. I think I'm waiting till tomorrow night.
29:27
I don't think I want anything tonight, neither of these two games. Um, big baseball day, Will. 17 games, 'cause we have a couple double headers, and your standard 15-game slate.
29:38
Where did you land on Major League Baseball's Wednesday full card? Yeah, there is a lot. And by the way, one, one last thing on the NBA.
29:44
I do think, and, and I think I texted you guys this in the group chat last night, it felt like the ch- the champion was on the floor last night when it was tied with a couple minutes to go. Oh, I know.
29:51
I just felt like, uh, whoever wins the rest of these five minutes is probably gonna win, win the series and, and win the title the way the East is breaking out.
29:58
I'm not a b- believer that the Timberwolves can probably win it all, so I think the Thunder probably have a good chance to, uh, to win it.
30:03
Uh, as far as baseball- Can I, can I just, let me just, let me just riff, riff on that for one second. I completely agree with that, too. Yeah. I, yeah, I- That was the finals. This series I think is the finals.
30:10
The one thing about that [clears throat] that is a- always in the back of my mind is, you know, we, the Pacers, amazing story. The Knicks, fan- fantastic story. Um, the Timberwolves, amazing stories, all three of them.
30:21
But as long as OKC lurks, like I think those fan bases, if they're really being honest, can only get to a certain level, and then they're like, "Oh yeah, but they're still around." Right?
30:31
And you d- and you don't have Jokic. All of those teams- Yeah... do not have Nikola Jokic. And this felt like their moment.
30:39
And to go back to the Warriors for a second, Gill, remember that their first title, it was 2015, they were down 2-1 to Memphis, and a lot of people were saying, "Oh, you can't win with a jump shooting team.
30:48
They're too young, they're too this." [laughs] And they got over the hump. These last two games, down eight in the fourth quarter in game four, and then down, what, 80 to 68 last night.
30:56
To be able to overcome both of those, maybe we look back in a month when they win the title and say that was their moment where they overcame all of this. It's a great point. Absolutely. You may be very right about that.
31:07
To baseball. Uh, I did play Scubel under four and a half hits.
31:13
Um, I, I haven't played it yet, but you look at the Rockies numbers and the run differential, the win-loss record, the, the record-setting pace, I don't think anything is as damning as the fact that they are, uh, e- facing Patrick Corbin in the year 2025, and Patrick Corbin is minus 260 or so.
31:31
That, that is the worst of all. Um, but I, I, I would, I lay the run and a half with the Rangers. I just, I think we're at the point with the Rockies where you gotta get a fade of them in your account somehow.
31:40
Team total, run line, money line, it's not fancy, it's not, you know, genius by any stretch to, uh, to just fade them, but they are that bad. And I think they're looking at like a 37, 38 win season. Oh, oh.
31:52
Let me ask you, what, what number-- They update these season win totals every day pretty much, or pr- regularly at least. What number would you need to see where you actually said, "You know what?
32:02
I'm gonna bet the over on the Rockies for the season wins"? A great question. What, what number would make you pull the trigger?
32:06
Uh, 'cause Fez asked the other night, he said, "What should their s- adjusted season win total be?" And I said 45 and a half was the first number that came out of my mouth. But you're asking it the other way.
32:14
What, what number would I require to go over? 32 and a half. 34 and a half. [laughs] Seriously. So 34 and a half.
32:22
You see a 34 and a half, you're go- you're going to the window, you're getting out the wall, and you're, you're betting the over. I didn't, I didn't say I would be sprinting to the window.
32:28
[laughs] That's always what it is, man. You just asked me what I would require, and I, maybe I would consider it, but yes, I, I think at that number, um, if I didn't have any other bets to make, maybe I would make that.
32:36
Yes. I, I picture in my head Gill just pushing a couple old ladies out of the way. [laughs] Costanza style. Sprinting down the line. "What are you do- what's he doing? Where are you going?"
32:43
"I'm going to bet the Rockies over wins." This is free money. Come on. I mean, this is like, how- They gotta win 28 left. That's it... how, how often do we bring it up?
32:50
This is, like, for me, this is that Warriors-Wolves game tonight. Like, the only bet I could consider is the Warriors plus 11. You taking it? No, no. No. No, I don't feel like living through that at all. No. No.
32:59
Could you imagine living through the Rockies thing for the next four months? Like, come on, 28th win. It's all I need left. They're seven and 35 right now. Good God. Epically bad.
33:08
Your Yankees, uh, last thing here, Yankees leading the American League East. Um, you know, comfortable three-game lead here over the Red Sox. They're 24 and 18. You happy with what you've seen so far?
33:17
[upbeat music] About what I expected. I thought they'd get more out of Devin Williams. Freed's been good. They can hit. Goldschmidt's been giving them something. Rice, uh, Grisham's b- been like an all-star.
33:27
That's a, a season out of nowhere. So, uh, uh, pr- probably a little better than I expected, about what I expected, but they, they still don't have a ton of starting pitching. All right, Will. Appreciate it as always.
33:36
Will Hill, everybody. All right. See you guys. Thanks. That's not the Will Hill. Two Es on the V, by the way. Jason Weingarten from Under a Cloud of Smoke, all his bets next on the Numbers Game right here at VSiN.
33:45
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:55
The NBA playoffs obviously in full effect mode, heating up as we speak, and our partner ProfitX is offering the best odds all playoffs long. ProfitX is a peer-to-peer sports exchange available in 40 plus states.
34:09
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34:18
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34:31
ProfitX, do yourself a favor and check it out. 40 plus states. Not Nevada, though, Kelly. I, I, yeah, I know, it's frustrating. Very frustrating.
34:39
I, I know this was supposed to be the NBA setup for ProfitX, but I was looking at some of the golf numbers yesterday. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. I wanna throw a chair through the window that it's not available to us out here.
34:49
Like, it is just- Yeah... it, it's, it's amazing. Again, I think I said this last time we did the read, in nine minutes and 40 seconds, we're gonna go to commercial break.
34:57
If you don't have ProfitX and you're in a state that has it, do yourself a favor and go to the site and check it out and compare some odds. Wow, I thought you were about to call people stupid.
35:06
That's what I thought you were about to do. No. But in, in nine, nine- Stupid if you don't have 'em, uh, have it. That's what I thought you were going with. Well, I mean, could say that.
35:12
[laughs] I'll choose not to, but you know. That's very kind of you. Um, ladies and gentlemen, how about we talk some hockey? All this basketball.
35:19
The hockey playoffs just as awesome, maybe some would say even more awesome. Do you like that debate where people are like, "Oh, no, hockey's better than basketball playoffs"? They're both great.
35:28
Uh, to discuss, we bring in AJ Scholz, who, uh, joined us last week or the week before. Joins us again, editor at Roto Wire, co-host of the Puck Cast. With stats man in AJ, you can follow him on Twitter @AJScholz.
35:38
That's S-C-H-O-L-Z 24 on the old Twitter machine. How you doing, AJ? Doing good, fellas. I, I agree with you. I think both, uh, both products offer great, great playoffs. Obviously, I'm partial to hockey.
35:53
Um, but you know, I'll throw some NBA playoffs on there as well. They're, they're both great, uh, great content to watch.
35:59
Well, like the NBA conference semifinals, uh, the NHL ended up here with three series that are three to one, and one that is two to two.
36:08
Before we get to the two to two and the two games tonight, let me just ask you a blanket sort of statement. I'm gonna say, okay, so Carolina's up three to one on the Caps.
36:16
Dallas, after the, uh, the Michael Granlund hat trick last night, up three games to one against the Winnipeg Jets. And of course, famously to folks around here, Edmonton up three games to one against VGK.
36:28
Now, if I came to you from the future and I said, "AJ, one of these three teams, the Caps, the Jets, the Knights, one of them came back from the three to one deficit and won it," the answer would be who?
36:44
I think for me it's the Jets. Um- Hmm... I, I know Dallas is really good, but they do have, if he can find his game, the best goaltender in the league.
36:54
Connor Hellebuyck's gonna walk away with the Vezina Trophy from regular season awards. He is underwhelmed in the post-season, there's no question about it. But they have home ice advantage, that certainly helps them.
37:07
Uh, that does obviously apply to Washington as well. But, uh, if Connor Hellebuyck can s- find something, even, even half of what he had during the regular season, he could still steal this series for Winnipeg.
37:19
Yeah, Golden Knights, Caps, and Jets, all three of them, right, down three to one, have games five and potentially game seven on their home ice. So all of that, um, is intact for those three teams.
37:33
Now, tonight we have a double header. One of them, the first one, is the one series that's not ended up at two games a piece, Toronto and Florida. Two to two, we're back in Toronto.
37:43
Uh, Florida the slight favorite in game five, obviously the slight series price favorite as well. How do you see this going tonight?
37:52
I think we're gonna see Florida really try and end this in six games, and that means they have to win tonight. But I don't think they wanna go back to Toronto for a game seven.
38:02
Uh, obviously for the Maple Leafs, they're trying to hold, you know, hold serve here. Just win at home and you're fine, you don't have to worry about it.
38:09
But I think Florida, I would expect to see a high shot volume here. Uh, it's worked for them in the last two games. They've put up over 35 shots in each of the last two and come away with wins.
38:20
So expect a lot of shots and a lot early. I would look, you know, if you can find, like, a first series, uh, or first period prop, uh, for shots, I would absolutely target the over on that.
38:31
I think Florida comes out strong in that opening period to try and get a goal or two and take control of this one early. Okay. And then game two, Oilers-Golden Knights.
38:41
Um, you know, again, if Riley Smith doesn't put the puck in with 0.4 seconds left in game three, maybe this is a sweep already. As it is, uh, we're back in Vegas at T-Mobile tonight. Uh, VGK a slight favorite.
38:56
Remember, this was the pre-flop series where, uh, the Golden Knights were gonna be a favorite in four games, but Edmonton was actually the series favorite.
39:03
Uh, so we have Golden Knights as a slight minus 125 favorite tonight. How do you see this going? I hate to say it, but I, I think this might be the end for Vegas tonight. They, they've gotten underwhelming net minding.
39:16
As you said, this series was seconds away from being a sweep. Uh, Edmonton seems to have just found something.
39:23
They've been able to outscore their poor goaltending, which is something I haven't expected them to do in the post-season, uh, because the goaltending's been that bad.
39:33
Um, it'll probably be Stuart Skinner between the pipes again for them tonight. His numbers are underwhelming other than that game four win. Um, but I, I think, I, I think this might be the end for Vegas tonight.
39:45
I think Edmonton clinches it to move on to the Western Conference finals.
39:49
For my, uh, for my Caps fan friends over there in the DMV, is this, uh, is this gonna be like all other Caps teams except for the one that won the Cup, uh, in 2018?
39:59
Which is to say, great regular season team, but it just fizzles in the playoffs. You give 'em any shot to come back and, uh, take down the c- the Hurricanes? I just think this Hurricanes team is too well-constructed.
40:12
It, it's, for me, this is more of a, a good Hurricanes well-constructed team, and less of a knock on Washington. You know, the, the Capitals have gotten good goaltending out of Logan Thompson.
40:23
They've obviously got Ovechkin. Dylan Strome had quite a career year. Um, but this Carolina team is built to play with pretty much anybody. They've got a, you know, a top six that can really produce.
40:36
They've got a really deep team that can play physical. They've got defensemen on both sides, offensive and defensively-minded guys.
40:43
And Freddie Andersen's been playing some of the best go- uh, goal- you know, hockey of his career.
40:47
So I, I think this is more of a, a Carolina just overwhelming Washington, and less of a Washington collapse like we've seen- Hmm... uh, in, you know, prior seasons from them. All right.
40:59
So AJ, if we get, if we get Edmonton and, uh, Dallas in the West for the Western Conference finals, and then we get, uh, Carolina and Florida, let's just say. Sorry Toronto fans, just we'll go with this- [laughs]...
41:12
for the, for the purposes of this exercise. Florida-Carolina in the East. Would we have, in your opinion, the four best teams in hockey, apologies to Winnipeg, which won the President's Trophy?
41:23
I mean, you'd be pretty close. I, I, you know, Dallas I think had some flaws, but then they went out and got Mikko Rantanen. They got Miro Heiskanen back last night. That's a huge boost to their blue line.
41:35
Obviously Jake Oettinger is one of the best goaltenders in the league as well, and I think that's what you would see kinda, you know, you've got Bobrovsky in Florida.
41:44
Uh, Edmonton's the anomaly here, but Freddie Andersen's playing lights out for Carolina. Jake Oettinger, or even if Winnipeg were to come back, uh, you've got Connor Hellebuyck.
41:53
So there's a theme here with some of the top net minders in the league being left on these teams. Obviously, again, Edmonton being kind of the weird outlier there. Yeah. So odds to win the Stanley Cup.
42:04
Stars are the short shot, Oilers right behind them. Plus 265, plus 320 respectively. Then you see the aforementioned two potential Eastern Conference final teams in the Hurricanes and Panthers.
42:14
Leafs still have something to say about this, they're plus 950. The Jets, you mentioned if, uh, you know, in that scenario, one of these teams gotta come back from three to one, which is it?
42:22
If one does, you said it's the Jets. They're 40 to 1 to win it all. If you could only make one bet here, what would it be?
42:29
I have been on the Jets all post-season, 'cause I was on them beforehand, but I do think I'm finally gonna walk away from that.
42:36
The fact that Dallas has gotten just peak, uh, Rantanen through this one, and that they get Miro Heiskanen back tonight, I, I think, I know they're the shortest, you know, shortest odds here, or y- the least return, rather, for you, but I think Dallas is the team to beat right now with how easily they're handling Winnipeg, how well they've been playing, a- and again, you can't undersell the benefit they get from gettin- getting Miro Heiskanen back in the lineup.
43:04
All right, and what about Conn Smythe, if I could ask your opinion on that? Mikko Rantanen, uh, is your short shot at this point, followed by Connor McDavid.
43:12
Uh, makes sense that the both of those two guys are at the top. Rantanen plus 370, McDavid plus 450. Uh, Frederik Andersen plus 650. Everybody else, starting with Leon Draisaitl, 11 to 1 or longer.
43:23
Jake Oettinger in there as well, by the way, 16 to 1. That's an interesting choice. Who, uh, where's the bet here? Well, it's obviously gonna come down to who wins, right?
43:34
But I think if Dallas does win, there would have to be some sort of huge performance in the last two rounds from somebody other than Mikko Rantanen.
43:43
Uh, Oettinger would make a strong case if he pitched a shutout or two, especially if it were in, you know, the Stanley Cup final and he got a shutout or two.
43:51
So, uh, if you're looking for longer odds, I don't hate the idea of Jake Oettinger. Um, if Florida wins, I think you have to consider Sergei Bobrovsky.
44:02
You know, he's got the best odds from the Panthers right now for a reason. Uh, actually Barkov is slightly ahead of him, but Sergei Bobrovsky would be a good play.
44:10
Um, but for me, uh, again, I think it has to be Rantanen, because I'm back in Dallas as the best odds here. All right. AJ, appreciate it, man. Thank you so much. Yeah. Anytime, fellas. AJ Scholz, everybody.
44:22
Once again, you can follow him on Twitter at AJScholz24 for all of his hockey thoughts. We'll come back. Jason Weingart will join us, but first, Kelly, 24 hours away from the PGA Championship.
44:33
That's next, right here on The Numbers Game
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