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May 14, 2025
A Numbers Game | May 14, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 14, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:36
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Our numbers do the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
0:12
VSiN.com Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM channel 158.
0:17
We do not really care, we're not particular about how you take us in, just as long as you do it one way or the other, which you obviously are, 'cause you're listening to us right now. So thank you for that.
0:26
It's Gil Alexander. That's Kelly Bidlin, my little buddy Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Heyo. Kelly Bidley, as some call him. Some call him. You losing back that vacation weight? You losing it back? A little bit.
0:34
A little b- little bit. [laughs] Not ba- I'm not back to, uh, pre-vacation weight. Uh, this hour Jason Weingart will join us. JVT, how about that?
0:42
Jonathan Montobl, uh, moments before he joins Stormy for Money Moves, he will be on with us to discuss the NBA. Yeah, we're doing a little crossover action today.
0:51
I'll be hopping on their show as well to talk some golf later. We call that cross-talk in the business. Yeah, yeah. There you go. Speaking of golf, we'll get to that here in a moment, Kelly.
0:58
I just wanna read this one tweet. This is from Vegas Regular.
1:00
"As a Lakers fan," he said, "losing Byron Scott in game one and Magic Johnson in game two of the 1989 NBA finals will always be the worst of the worst when it comes to injuries in the playoffs.
1:11
May have prevented a three-peat." I'm gonna say that KD and Klay beats that. KD rupturing his Achilles and Klay Thompson blowing out his knee- Oh, yeah... preventing the Warriors from a fifth championship. Yeah.
1:25
And which could've been a run for seven. Oh, I lost so much money on that. Ugh. Oh, it was just brutal. It's just brutal. But I hear you on 1989 as well. Uh, this is interesting here.
1:34
The Lakers have p- have, have a job listing. This is a, this is not a joke. The Lakers have- [laughs] That is a joke... put out a job listing. This is, this is a public job listing, correct? Yeah, yeah.
1:44
Um, they have a job listing for a head [laughs] their head strength and conditioning coach. So in case you want the job of, uh, getting Luka Dončić into s- into shape, here you go. [laughs] You can apply for it.
1:58
Their head strength and conditioning coach for the Los Angeles Lakers. Department? Strength and conditioning. Reports to director, player performance and health. How about that?
2:08
Oh, so if it, if Luka's in bad shape, who gets fired then, this guy or player performance and health? Maybe the, maybe the guy you report to. So maybe, maybe this is a cush- Yeah, player performance and health...
2:15
maybe this is a cush gig, Kelly. The w- I'll tell you, I think it flew under the radar a little bit, but when Dallas got bounced from the playoffs, uh, the, I believe the whole department got fired in Dallas.
2:25
Oh, is that what they did? Yeah, like, they cleaned house. By the way, I'm burying the headline on this. You see the salary for this head strength and conditioning coach in the fine print there?
2:32
Yeah, I didn't know what to make of that. I, it also caught my eye. 200, $250,000 a year for the Lakers head strength and conditioning coach job. You feel like that's high or low?
2:41
Uh, I, I think if you had asked me, I probably would've gone lower than that. I would've said lower six figures. I think if you would've asked me, I would've gone a little higher than that. Really?
2:51
I mean, it's the Lakers, an NBA job. This ain't no joke job. [laughs] I didn't say it was. Head strength and conditioning, like this is- I didn't say it was. I just, I, I have a bad guess then.
3:00
I mean, these teams got a lot of money. W- w- who, uh, whoever owns the Celtics these days just paid six bill for them. S- they paid what now? Six billion dollars for that team. Oh.
3:11
Yeah, no, I know, that was crazy, huh, for a basketball team? What do you think you are, the Washington Skins? What do you think you are?
3:16
That was, I, it's funny 'cause the, the salary thing did jump out to me immediately too, but that was the... I always lo- I like having those conversations of like- Yeah...
3:23
do you feel like that's a little low or a little high? No, I, I totally w- I mean, not that I ever think about it, but if you had asked me, I would've said l- I would've said half that.
3:30
Should've, I should've kept, I, I, uh- But now that I think-... should've kept it hidden and then asked that question... but now, but now that I think about it, you're right. Yeah.
3:35
It's a stupid guess because it is the Los Angeles Lakers. It's a lot of money. Yeah, yeah, absolutely right. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, you know what time it is now, don't you? Oh. It's time to go country clubbing.
3:43
[upbeat music] [laughs] Just love that. Uh, we should have a camera pointed this way. Yeah, I see a few floor lights going back there. Oh, the whole crew's getting in on it. Got the big feet up,
4:03
Gil. So what we have is our crew behind the dark glass, they put up their, uh, lights, which I guess is what the kids do in the clubs these days. So f- well, yeah, nobody, 'cause nobody has lighters anymore. Right.
4:11
So, uh, they d- just put up their phones. That's what they do. Yeah. Yeah. So, uh, Country Club, ladies and gentlemen, but not just any edition of Country Club, and it's a golf major, PGA Championship.
4:21
BB- let me say that again, PGA Championship, Quail Hollow, Charlotte, North Carolina, where Xander Schauffele. Now, remember with the PGA it's a different course every year. Mm-hmm.
4:30
But Xander Schauffele shot a 21 under last year. Where was it last year? Uh, Valhalla, right? Valhalla. That was it last year. That's right. 21 under to cash is a 14 to one pre-flop, uh, shot on that.
4:43
Uh, look at the names. Again, we mentioned this the other day. Mm-hmm.
4:46
The PGA Championship, it used to be like the, you know, when it was the last major of the year, it was like the Jimmy Walkers of the world and the David Tomses of the world used to win this thing.
4:57
But the last, what is this? The last eight years, Justin Thomas 2017, Koepka 2018, Koepka 2019, Morikawa 2020, Mickelson 2021, JT again in 2022, Koepka again in 2023, and Xander last year. So a who's who, if you will.
5:14
Kelly Bidlin, ladies and gentlemen, on the PGA Championship 2025. Yeah, I mean, I think this is... It, it, it also, it also plays into what courses they're pl- they've been playing this at, Gil. Mm-hmm.
5:25
And it has been, this has kind of turned into, if US Open's turned into the, the toughest test of golf overall, the PGA Championship a little bit over the past few years has turned into, all right, who's g- like length.
5:37
We're gonna design super long golf courses. Who can go out there and d- and, and beat those? And that's what we got at Quail Hollow. You see Quail Hollow every single year, Wells Fargo Championship usually.
5:47
We talked about this last week, been renamed to another bank. I think it was Covia way back in the day, then Quail Hollow, and now we're onto Truist, okay? Mm-hmm. Just banks changing hands, Gil.
5:55
Um, so we are at Quail Hollow. This is, this is a g- a golf course that we see every single year on the PGA Tour, so we do have a lot of, uh, data to back this up.
6:04
It is the fifth most predictive annual golf course, so that's something to keep in mind, Gil.
6:08
I think also one of the interesting things if you are doing Some of your own stat modeling at home [clears throat] or handicapping at home.
6:14
We talk about approach every single week and how it i- it is the most predictive stat to success, uh, on the PGA Tour. Off the tee performance at Quail Hollow is, is, is just so barely behind it, Gil.
6:27
It is almost as important a- uh, as approach. So you were really- You know, we, we, we always show this video. Yeah And I'm, I'm usually like, "Oh, look at that. Majestic." This course looks lame.
6:37
[laughs] Um, it looks like- It looks like- It's funny you bring this up... it looks like a municipal course. It's funny you bring this up because it does get some criticism because it- Oh, interesting... it is kinda...
6:45
They, they t- they, they call it an easy walk because you finish one hole and the tee box is, the next tee box is right next to it, but everything's... You'll hear this term in golf.
6:54
Everything's out in front of you, Gil. Yeah. It, i- it's out in front Everything's out front of you. You can kind of see where you're driving the ball. You see where you're hitting your approach shot.
7:01
Uh, there are some doglegs on some of these holes these guys will have to deal with. But it's one of the, it is one of those courses- Hmm... that there's, there's not a whole lot.
7:09
You only got six holes where water comes into play. 61 bunkers is pretty light, although they are strategically designed, um, around the greens.
7:17
One thing to keep in mind, I wanna go over field size and cut size real quick. 156. We are dealing with a full field event here. This is not the Masters. You do get 156 guys teeing it up. Top 70 is in ties.
7:26
That is the, I believe this is the only major where you get top 70 in ties and not top 65 in ties. So keep that in mind- Oh... for DFS or make miss cut, uh, stuff. All that does come into play.
7:37
One of the, really the only significant difference in my handicapping of this h- of this golf course this year, Gil, was you'll notice if you're watching at home, that rough length.
7:46
The rough is usually around two inches when they play, um, the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow. They are growing that out a bit.
7:54
Now, why I say that is because you used to be able to attack a Quail Hollow just with looking for guys with distance off the tee, and accuracy didn't matter as much.
8:03
It was a little bit of a bomb it and then figure it out once you're down there, uh, sort of course.
8:08
I'm interested to see if the extended rough makes this a little bit more difficult for guys needing to be a bit more accurate this week. So something to keep in mind if you are doing your own handicapping at home.
8:17
There are three par fives on this course. It is a par 71. You gotta score on the par fives. It is score on the par fives, survive the rest. The par threes are extremely difficult.
8:27
You're gonna see guys lose shots, uh, there. But this is really, it's a test of, test of length here.
8:32
Off the tee and then long iron play is going to be tested as well, especially for those guys that are not bombers like Rory McIlroy and Bryson, uh, DeChambeau.
8:40
There is no course, this will lead me right into my bet, uh, first bet, Gil. There is no course where any golfer has had more success at since 2014 than this course and Rory McIlroy. Hmm.
8:52
And where I'm not hating on Scottie Scheffler at all this week. You got Scheffler coming in off a win. You got Bryson DeChambeau coming in off a win. Rory coming in off that Masters win, uh, ju- just a few weeks ago.
9:02
You've got a lot of guys coming in. Justin Thomas picked up a win a few weeks ago. Um, I think there's a lot of high-level players coming in at peak form right now that I, we talked a bit about this yesterday.
9:14
I think we have a great golf tournament in store for us. I think if you're looking for outright hits further down the board, this is not the tournament to be doing it at. So I'm with, I'm on Rory this week.
9:23
I went right back to him. Uh, played him over, a little over 5 to 1 plus 525. I'm in on Rory as an outright backing that up with a top five to cover that. And I'm in on Bryson.
9:33
I think this is a course that Bryson should have a ton of success at. His off the tee numbers recently are insane. He's got two wins in a row. Uh, I believe it is on Liv coming into this.
9:43
And what he's doing off the tee, he's gaining over four strokes over the field. Uh, and that is on Liv, so something to keep in mind, smaller fields.
9:50
But what he's doing off the tee right now, what he's known to do for basically the past five years, it's just be- i- it has been incredible, sets up perfect for this golf course.
9:58
And the biggest difference between Bryson and s- and Scottie and Rory, Gil, is Bryson can just putt better and more consistently. And that, this is a course where putting will come into play.
10:09
So I went with those two shorter shots, and then I did play Justin Thomas last we- uh, over last weekend at 22 to 1. The number's not very different though right now. Anything in the 20s I still like on JT.
10:20
He's won at this course before. His last three times are top 20, uh, tee 21 or better, uh, at this course. He was my third rated golfer in my models this week. Really strong approach performances recently.
10:32
The putter has been working for JT. The one concern I have for him is this season he's been spraying it a bit off the tee. Does that rough come into play? How much trouble does that give him?
10:42
That's my only concern with JT, but I do really like him this week. Um, let's see. Moving on to placement markets.
10:49
Xander Schauffele and Corey Conners, two of the golfers I'm actually mo- uh, some of the most invested in this week. I love Schauffele's top 20 price. I think he's really rounding into form.
10:58
You're catching him into height right now. Remember, he came off that rib injury in the wintertime. It took him a little bit of wa- a little bit of time to get back into form.
11:06
I see, I think we're seeing Xander getting close to what he was a year ago. So at just minus 115 to play a top 20 on him, I love that price. Conners I played in the top 20 and top 30 market.
11:17
Look, not the longest guy off the tee, but he has just been so consistent with his finishes recently. T11, T, uh, T8 at the Masters, T18 at the Valero. Lot of quality finishes for him.
11:28
Got some other bombs, uh, on some guys who've been playing well recently in the top 30 market, Novak and Bud Cauley, uh, at longer prices. And, uh, how about I wrap up the other, uh, the rest on the other side?
11:38
Yeah, we can, we can, uh, we can recap it later too also. That too. Yeah. As well. Kelly Bidlin, everybody. All right. More, more bets than I imagined you had at Quail Hollow.
11:47
Beginning tomorrow, golf's second major of the year. Jason Weingarten on the other side. It's a numbers game at VSiN. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
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12:10
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12:24
I mean, just the most thorough tweets you can imagine. This is from Trip Tepper, was talking about that Lakers job posting. He says, "$200 to $250,000 for a job with the Lakers is low."
12:33
He said, "Three things come to mind." One, California's massive tax burden Yeah, how did we not think of that? Yeah Two, overall high cost of living. Three, good luck buying a house in that market.
12:45
Illustrates the Lakers' earned reputation for being cheap. Thank you, Trip, for the very thorough response to that. Pl- plus I'd love to know where that salary ranks among other NBA teams.
12:55
Well, that would be- Right, 'cause like the Lakers need to be, especially with Luka Dončić Yes... I'm sorry that it- Yeah, that's a big job... like, I love Luka, I still think it was a great trade, but it's a thing.
13:04
I'm not, I'm not saying it's not a thing, his fitness and, and, you know- I'm gonna guess that the- Luka... Charlotte Hornets or the, you know, I don't know, the, the San Antonio Spurs job is, doesn't pay as much.
13:13
I'm gonna guess that as well. Yeah. But like Lakers should be top five. Oh. It, I think it would be gross if they weren't top five. Bobby Gettys, only an hour late here. He's listening back to the show.
13:22
He's an hour behind. He says, "Obviously I'm a salty Celtics fan right now, but I don't see how you can say the Celtics game was seconds away from over, and that the Tatum injury doesn't really affect the series.
13:33
They were down nine with three minutes left. In these playoffs, that is certainly not over. And if Tatum was healthy, they'd probably be plus 250 to win the series. That's not over and I shall continue to complain.
13:44
#firstangrytweet." Well, to be accurate there, uh, Bobby Gettys- I like the hashtag. Yeah. 'Cause Bobby really doesn't get angry very often. Yeah, he doesn't get angry. He's a very nice guy.
13:52
Um, it was an 18 to five run with Tatum on the court that the Knicks, you know, put together there to go up 116 to 104 ultimately with 2:25 left.
14:01
Um, listen, they, as you said, they were down nine when he went off the court with three minutes left. I'm not sure if you're arguing that without him on the court, they were more likely to come back and win that game.
14:11
My point being that when we're talking about these injuries in the NBA playoffs, while they are obviously, in the case of Tatum, it's just a sad injury 'cause it's, you know, he's gonna miss a year because of it, um, that I think it's a l- besides the Warriors losing Curry, I don't think that Cavs fans and Celtics fans can argue completely knowingly that those injuries affected them all.
14:34
In the case of Tatum, I'm sorry, it was, it was basically three to one with him on the court.
14:38
And in the Cavs case, yeah, it's a little more nebulous because game two you didn't have the three players, uh, Hunter, Mobley, or Garland. You lost the 20-point lead.
14:49
Okay, you can argue that one game, but I don't think you could argue anything else. I think you're wording though. It definitely affected the series. The question is how much. Which, which series? The- The Cavs one.
14:58
I've got, I, I- The Cavs-Spacers... I will stand up for the Cavs more, more than this. No, it, it af- it affected it, right?
15:02
It affected it, but you, you cannot as a Cleveland Cavaliers fan claim that you would've won the series otherwise. Correct. Yes. And you certainly can if you're a Celtics fan. I'm sorry, Bobby.
15:14
Now the Warriors on the other hand, I think you can just say what, what's the point of even continuing? [laughs] To be honest with you, based on what we've seen.
15:21
Jason Weingarten joins us from under a cloud of smoke courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @spreadapedia, an old database gone by the wayside. How you doing, Jason? Pretty good.
15:33
How's it going? I'm doing very well, sir. You, you looking good. Are you betting on the PGA Championship? Do you have golf bets already? Are they gonna tee off? I heard it was raining a lot yesterday.
15:43
I was kinda worried that we're gonna get too much rain and have a abbreviated tournament or have to go through Monday or something, but, uh, no, I haven't really paid much attention to it. I kinda expect Rory to win. Uh,
15:56
haven't really looked down the board for any, any big numbers yet. I'll probably wait for it to tee off this week. What'd you bet in baseball today? Big day, 17 games. You know, today, today is kinda interesting.
16:09
Uh, you got six games today with over $2 favorites, um, including Patrick Corbin. Patrick Corbin should never be minus 220 in, at this stage in his career.
16:20
Um, but that just goes to show you how terrible the Rockies are and how, how little the Rockies are catching a bid by anyone or anything, you know, at this point in the season, which is quite odd. Um, I don't know.
16:35
Uh, the Rockies, I don't think I can bet them today, but I kinda want to. I mean, in what world is Patrick Corbin a minus 220 favorite for any living Major League pitcher?
16:47
[laughs] I just can't wrap my head around that concept. But I start looking around the league today, I see six games again with $2 favorites. That's just crazy for this early in the season.
16:59
I mean, we're barely 40 games into the season, so, um, I'm kinda looking at a couple of these games trying to see if there's any dogs that really stand out to me today. Uh, the A's are one of them.
17:10
Uh, they're playing the Dodgers, that second game of a three-game series. They won the first game last night. It's Gunnar Hagland versus Yamamoto.
17:18
[clears throat] I actually bet the alt line on the A's minus one and a half plus 345. I like that a lot. I think getting almost three and a half to one on the A's versus the Dodgers is, uh, pretty compelling to me today.
17:35
Otherwise, I'm looking at some of these, uh, big underdogs and seeing which ones I can kinda make a case for, and honestly, White Sox, Rockies, uh, you know- The poo-poo platter is what you're saying...
17:48
the, the Red Sox maybe. What? The poo-poo platter of teams. It's a very poo-poo platter. The White Sox, the Rockies. Yeah. It's the grossest poo-poo platter you could possibly have on May 14th of a baseball season.
17:58
The Rockies, the, the every worst team is on my radar today, the, the Marlins. Ugh, the Marlins. Am I really gonna bet on the Rockies and the Marlins and the White Sox on the same day? I don't think I am.
18:09
I think that's just, you know- Yeah... that's a waste of my time, so- Uh, a m- a window into the mind- I'm gonna think about it... a window into the mind of Jason Weingarten.
18:17
Jason has been obsessed with three different stories this past month, um, and I will, in no particular order, he was obsessed with, uh, Shedeur Sanders' slide in the NFL draft as so many of us were.
18:28
Uh, has been really, um, really focused in on Just this amazing Bill Belichick story, uh, going on obviously around the University of North Carolina program, and, uh, his girlfriend and all the, uh, tentacles of that story in particular.
18:45
And, uh, the NBA draft or draft lottery. Uh, Jason is on the side of it, it's not rigged, why are other... why are all these people, you know, thinking that, that something like this is rigged?
18:55
Is that an accurate representation of how you feel about the, the NBA draft lottery, by the way?
19:00
Yeah, I mean, it's more of the media sort of framing of it and how people are talking about these, these events more than my interest in it.
19:09
Like, Shedeur was clearly the perception and reality were just completely different things.
19:14
Bill Belichick, the perception and the reality are just completely different things, and you've seen, uh, some s- some media companies kind of trying to spin it and not really wanna approach it head-on, uh, because it's a touchy subject, subject.
19:29
Uh, so I'm interested in, in the media's sort of handling of these situations. Same thing with the, the draft. I mean, everyone was just completely ready to declare it rigged, which, you know, it very well might be.
19:41
I'm, I'm not, I'm not gonna say that I'm not gonna listen to people's opinions and thoughts on these things, but, you know, 1.8% chances win at stuff all the time. It wins in golf, it wins in horse racing.
19:54
We don't bat our eyes. But when it happens in the NBA draft, everybody immediately jumps to stupid conspiracy conclusions. Well, you're, you're with me.
20:01
You know, I just think it's- I, I allow for the possibility, and the only reason I allow for the possibility is because of the history. I allow for the possibility of anything. Yeah. But, but it's- You know what I mean?
20:09
I, you can allow for the possibility of anything. Yeah, but usually I don't allow for the possibility 'cause I think people who say things are rigged are, are generally ridiculous.
20:15
But in this case, it's because of the history, right?
20:17
Ewing to the Knicks, Rose to the, to the, uh, Bulls, LeBron to the Cavs, the, the Pelicans getting rewarded after trading AD and, uh, Chris Paul and, uh, and then this, this one a couple days ago.
20:30
But I wanna get to the Belichick thing because this is the most like sports betting perhaps related of, of the bunch 'cause we don't know how the Shedeur thing will shake out from this point forward. Um,
20:40
Bill Belichick, is there a... Uh, let me just ask this. Do you think it's 100% that he will end up coaching North Carolina?
20:48
Do you, uh, let's just using the phrase allow for the possibility, do you think there's a scenario here where he never gets to the regular season? Yes.
20:56
I mean, look at, look at the situation and take away Bill Belichick that you know. He's just been completely embarrassing himself for the last couple months.
21:04
He had to go and hire a PR guy from the Chicago Bears to come in and, and be the guy there on site to spin everything 'cause he's just thoroughly been embarrassing himself with his behavior for the last couple months every opportunity he gets.
21:18
Um, he has this book that's come out. I don't know a single person that's purchased it. I don't know a single person that's read it. Um, you have all this stuff with these videos being leaked.
21:27
How many more videos are there? Um, a- and you know, the first one was him not wearing a shirt on a Ring camera. How much more embarrassing could these videos get?
21:35
Uh, I certainly would not be surprised if there's more embarrassing content being held for compartment by this woman at this point. Um, it's clearly being manipulated.
21:45
Like I said last time, I hope his kids and his family have stepped in and have got the legal representation they need or whatever. But, um, like I said, if this was my family, this would be handled much differently.
21:55
It's, it's quite embarrassing to watch from, from the outside and watching a coach like Belichick destroy his legacy. Um, very odd to watch. It's- I- and- Like, I don't think the story is far from over...
22:06
wh- whether he, and whether he gets there or not, and let's assume he does, um, you know, I just wonder if, if they're in, you know, y- you wonder if they're, if they get...
22:14
It's, it's not an easy transition, and we're starting to hear like a little rumblings from other college, you know, lifer college, uh, coaches and, and those in the administrations or in the, or in the, in the football programs.
22:25
Like, maybe these guys are in over their heads when it comes to NIL and that kind of thing.
22:29
Seven and a half is their season win total, and I'm curious if you at some point are just gonna keep pounding the under on something like that. Yeah, I'll bet the under.
22:36
I mean, for a coach who made his career on not having distractions and, and cutting every player who was a distraction- Yeah... he's sure not practicing what he preaches all of a sudden.
22:45
It's quite a, quite a scene to watch unfold. Thank- We'll see what happens. Thank you, Jason. But I'm not optimistic for him. JVT next. See ya. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
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23:08
Download the First Bet app or visit first.com/bet. Use promo code VSiN200 to get started today. That's first.com/bet, promo code VSiN200. I just wanna read this, uh, one tweet here, Kelly.
23:23
Uh, 3JackH3131, "Gil completely forgot about Jason's determination to validate 100 men could take out a gorilla this past month." He did.
23:31
"We're all reasonable people, and we [laughs] and we need Belichick to do the same and drop the girlfriend experience. Lombardi needs to step in," he says in caps. It is, uh- I'm sure Lo-...
23:40
every time I think I'm out on this story, something else comes up that brings me back in and out. I love that Pablo Torre's been all over it. We've had him on the show before. Yes, we have. Love Pablo Torre.
23:49
Al- I've always enjoyed his work. But, like, it is dangerous.
23:53
When you deal with some of these journalists, they are as real journalists who I know we m- some of us might work for joke, uh, betting companies like DraftKings and stuff of, of sports books.
24:03
He's still a journalist, and he doesn't have much to lose right now at UNC. Like, he is not gonna back away from this story at all. Oop, we're about one development away from getting Pablo back on here. Yeah, I think so.
24:13
Yeah. By the way- It's, it's just so fascinating... [clears throat] by the way, to your point there, 3Jack, I'm sure Lombardi has it all under control. I'm sure he's got it all under control.
24:21
Uh, in studio, before he, uh, does two hours, uh, on Money Moves with Stormy, it's JVT to talk some NBA with us. Jonathan Von Tobel, baby, @meJVT on Twitter, in studio. How you doing, man? I'm good.
24:33
Thanks for coming in early. Yeah, of course. I mean, I'm always here a little early anyway, so it's- Uh-... no problem. No problem... so you just, like, come in early. Enjoying his coffee, prepping for a show.
24:40
I like to sit at the overhang. You know, they have the tables there- Oh... and they just kinda just chill, you know? Take in the morning air with the blasting techno music at 8:00 in the morning.
24:48
[laughs] They get a little video poker session in there. Yeah, yeah. Did, Kelly and I have, have never complained about that ever- [laughs]... in, in all our years doing this.
24:55
It's just such, it's such a d- it's such at odds with the vibe of the morning. [laughs] It's the vibe of the morning, yes. Oh my God, it's 6:00 in the morning. Stop it. Uh, okay, looking for a bet tonight, John.
25:05
We're all in this, uh, VSiN Killer Sports challenge. Um, and of course, the rest of the world is not, but we have mandatory picks to be made. So I wanna look at it from a- Yeah...
25:15
mandatory pick standpoint, where we gotta fill 10 throughout the, uh, the semifinals, the conference semifinals. And most of us have at least one or two picks left to play. Kelly's got three left, right? Yeah.
25:26
Three left to play? Yeah, three. I am having- Not worried at all, Gil... I am having much difficulty at least coming up with one tonight in either of these two games. I'm curious what your thoughts are.
25:36
Boston, four-and-a-half point favorites, game five, looking to stave off elimination against the Knicks, down three games to one. And then, of course, the Warriors at Minnesota.
25:46
Minnesota looking to, uh, just put the Warriors, the Steph-less Warriors away. We're showing 10-and-a-half. I'm seeing some 11s out there. I mean, T-Wolves are huge favorites here. Total's 203.
25:56
Is there a bet for you either side or total? So I've got one play left. Um, and I mean, my initial thought was kinda looking around is, I don't know, do you have a quarter that I can flip? Yeah.
26:07
A- and then, like, maybe we could, like, decide in that way. Then I'll be doing it. [laughs] That's the problem.
26:10
Th- this second round, I said it on the show yesterday, I feel like I'm just constantly playing catch-up on almost everything.
26:14
In fact, like, I was going to, it didn't happen, but I was gonna send it, like a rage out text message to Kelly. When the, when the Cavaliers were up by like, you know, 15, 16 points, I'm like, "Are we doing this again?"
26:26
No. It just, it makes no sense. Now eventually, you know, they stayed inside of the number, Pacers did eventually won the game outright.
26:31
I think we're starting to kind of find the level when it comes to the things we expect to happen should start to happen. So in other words, like I think Minnesota, I laid 10 with Minnesota today.
26:40
Now obviously, our contest is 11-and-a-half, so I don't think you wanna go and play that.
26:44
But the way that Minnesota has defended, it has been very consistent throughout the series, it's just their offense has been all over the place.
26:50
But the one thing that I think that has really stuck out that I keep bringing up to Stormy, since game one, where it was a series of coin flips, a coin flip for them at the rim, they have killed the Warriors within four feet of the basket.
27:00
They have been getting to the basket. They are shooting nearly 70% within four feet of the basket.
27:04
If these shots from beyond the arc start to fall at a higher rate, which you would think at least it's gonna find its level there, and you're gonna be able to shoot relatively well, you should be able to win and cover this sort of number at home against the Warriors team that has been really up against it.
27:16
I also think the team total for Golden State under, again, another angle I talked about this with Will Hill yesterday on his podcast, something there, 'cause again, without Steph Curry, they have been absolutely lost.
27:25
And I think it's something worth looking at here tonight too. See, I- Yeah...
27:27
it's interesting hearing you and Will both talk about that, 'cause I, I think the bet I'm gonna end up on tonight is Minnesota team total over. Sure.
27:35
I think that's where I'm gonna go, and just kinda get these points out of there. 'Cause I, I could still see a, a, a lower scoring game, obviously the total tells us, tells us that. But I- it's...
27:44
Trying to just take the points out of the equation. This is a big number to be laying. Yeah, I also think the over is an option too.
27:49
Like to that point, again, with Minnesota going back home, you know, we again, the old cliche of role players play better at home.
27:55
So you would think that the ancillary pieces give you a little bit more in terms of scoring, uh, and efficiency.
28:00
But you've also, kind of what you're g- getting at, Kelly, the last game we reached such a low point of the total for the series, like 199-and-a-half at some spots.
28:07
Where I think now that we're at 203, again, expecting better offensive efficiency because the numbers have been there.
28:13
If you look at it, like cleaning the glass as a metric, location effective field goal percentage, what would this team's effective field goal percentage be if they shot league average from all the spots that they're shooting?
28:21
It should be higher for Minnesota in this series. So I think maybe you can make the case for this game to go over the total as well. What about Nuggets tomorrow night? Um, they're trying to stay alive.
28:31
Game six now down three to two after that thriller yesterday at OKC. Thunder four-and-a-half point favorites on the road. To me, I th- I think the Thunder close this out, uh, and I think they can cover this number.
28:40
Th- there's a couple things that stick to it. Um, but one thing really sticks out when you look at yesterday, despite the, the really close game and obviously the way that Ni- Nikola Jokic played.
28:49
One number really stuck out when you looked at the box score for, uh, Denver. The number was 46. That's how many three-point attempts they had in that game. They average low 30s in terms of- Wow... three-point attempts.
28:59
Hm. The, they cannot get inside the paint against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
29:04
If you look at their frequency numbers in this series, nearly 40% of their attempts from beyond the arc are coming from, or excuse me, where, uh, 40% of their attempts are coming from beyond the arc.
29:13
In the regular season, that was 31%.
29:15
Like, they are being forced to take so many more perimeter jumpers because the one thing that Gold- or excuse me, Oklahoma State has done very well in this series is they have defended.
29:24
Their offense has been all over the place. Yeah. Y- you don't know what you're gonna get.
29:27
The ancillary pieces are not really performing outside of Lu Dort finally waking up yesterday for a stretch and turning into Ray Allen.
29:33
But the one thing the Thunder have done really well is defend the Nuggets extremely well throughout this series. Offensive rating's abysmal. It's floating around like 102 or 103 for the series for the Denver Nuggets.
29:42
They're shooting more perimeter shots. I think that continues as it has throughout this series, and I think that they're gonna be able to go in.
29:48
And by the way, should note too, we've been tracking this, and I, I'm, you, I think you guys have hit on this a couple of times too, home court's been absolutely nothing in this post-season. Yep.
29:55
Median average for, for home teams is one. [laughs] Like, when you're looking at that, or median result I should say, not median average. Median result at home is one point.
30:03
If you're talking about average net rating for home teams, it's barely three. That would be the lowest non-garbage, uh, time net rating for home teams since 2017, if that holds.
30:12
Th- this has really been one where I think home court has been overpriced at times, and I think you might be getting a little bit here too.
30:17
But I, I think Oklahoma City is very valid to come in here and lay that number and, and get it done. All right, let's do this thought exercise. Um, seven teams left, Cavs out obviously.
30:26
Thunder, let's say, let's, the thought exercise is the f- the Oklahoma City Thunder do not win the NBA championship. Mm. Okay? So of the six remaining teams, and I'll, you know... I, actually I won't spot you any.
30:38
I'll ask you to rank them. Of the six remaining teams, who then won the champion- who is most likely to win the championship? Nuggets included Mm-hmm...
30:47
Celtics and Warriors included, everybody included of the remaining six I mean, I, I feel like, so if, if Oklahoma City, we're just saying they don't win the championship? They don't win the championship. Okay.
30:56
That doesn't, that means that they could get knocked out here- That doesn't mean... Right, yeah, exactly. Okay. Yeah.
30:59
So, uh, then going with that, then I would probably say number one for me would be, I think by default, Minnesota, just because they would be one of the higher rated teams that are left, and they have a very clear path to get to a Western Conference finals and then of course maybe beyond.
31:15
I think number two would be Indiana. Mm-hmm. I, I think that the Indiana Pacers have some very good depth. They have been playing very well on defense. Their offense has a very high floor.
31:25
Like, you know what you're gonna get with Indiana offensively. Their depth is great. They're second or third in bench scoring per game.
31:31
They're going to be a team that I think is going to be a very big pain in the ass for the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference finals. Again, assuming that's it.
31:37
We don't, we don't know if the Knicks are gonna win that series yet. Um, but I think those would be my one and two in that order. I think it'd be Minnesota, I think it'd be Indiana.
31:43
I think that I would, I'm glad you a- asked it that way, Gil, because I think it would be, yeah, Wolves and Indiana for me, but slot them in at two, three, 'cause the way you phrased the question, that means I'll say if the Nu- Thunder are out, that means they lost this series- I'm with-...
31:56
game six and game seven- I'm with you... and it's a dead heat. I'm with you. Yeah. I would put Nuggets one, Pacers two, T-Wolves three, and then the interesting part about the exercise is the Knicks still don't rate.
32:07
Yeah. Right? The Knicks still come up to, for most people, as fourth in that, and then I guess you would have to go Celtics, Warriors after that. Yeah. I'm just turned off by the lack of depth for New York.
32:15
Like, they- Yeah... like, I want more, uh, I want more of these guys to contribute off of the bench. They're one of the worst bench-scoring teams in the field.
32:22
Like, at some point it has to matter that you get some sort of help from the pieces on this team. And to your point, like, I get it, like, I, the, it's, I thought about it only because look, Jokic has been great.
32:31
Yesterday was incredible. He scores 44 points. Amazing. He was, [laughs] he was awesome. The turnaround three at the top of the key. Dude, the entire sports book- That was awesome... is losing its mind. Right.
32:40
[laughs] But, like- Yeah... I just, I think that they are so worn down. I, I think that this is a team, too, that only has, like, a six or six and a half man rotation. Yeah.
32:48
I, I, like, greatness can only carry you so far when you're that shorthanded. Well, see, like, that's the other part of it, right, JVT? Like, this, that's mattering a ton right now. In theory, if they- Yeah...
32:56
got past OKC, you get a lot more rest baked into the schedule going to, going into the conference finals, into the finals. I mean, not that much though- Right...
33:03
'cause in this theory really quickly, right, you're going to seven games. You gotta win in seven. Yeah, yeah. And then it's a quick turnaround to the start of a Western Conference finals. That's true.
33:10
That's interesting because if we, 'cause if I ask the same question knowing that the Nuggets had gotten through to- Yeah...
33:15
the conference finals, and I asked you to rank the four remaining teams, let's say it's Indiana, New York, Denver, and Minnesota. Denver would still not be number one for you. No, I think they'd probably be two. Okay.
33:24
Just because again, I think the situation's better for Minnesota, but they're definitely a threat. Okay. Man, it's, I don't care what others say, and I know the three of us are in agreement, it's been a great playoffs.
33:34
Um, getting a bet in tonight, though. There's no question that it's been a great post-season. Yeah. Who are the, the people saying that it hasn't been- John Calipari was-... haven't, haven't been watching.
33:41
[laughs] Haven't been watching. But there's people saying it. We'll come back, we'll recap the bets next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSIN, the sports betting network.
33:56
Back on the numbers game live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Finland, producer number nine, so much more than a producer, alongside. You good? I'm good, man. Okay, just making sure.
34:07
I'm, I'm just, I'm just trying to recover from our break conversation, man. [laughs] Just, man, I... Going down memory lane, it is fun times. Oh, back down memory lane. We got tweets.
34:16
Chance Copperpot, "Do you think I could be a strength and conditioning coach if I'm not strong or conditioned? Might have to apply for the Sonics job." Uh, you could apply for Luka Dončić's assis- personal assistant.
34:25
Uh- That probably works... apparently, uh, Adam Silver will meet with all team owners in July to discuss the expansion to 32 teams in the NBA. No, I thought we just did that, like, two months ago. I don't know. Weird.
34:36
Adam, is Adam Silver feigning interest in this now? You and I were ta- were discussing this.
34:39
I, it's the, they just had an owners meeting, like, a couple months ago, and one of the biggest stories is that the lack of information that came out about the expansion.
34:46
Adam Silver to date has always been more interested in, like, European stuff, games in Europe, than he has been in actual expansion.
34:53
They, uh, uh, and JVT, feel free to dunk on me here if I'm wrong with any of these facts, but it was, there was the owners meeting a- and, like, the Seattle reporters, right?
35:02
The, the whole idea is it's supposed to be expansion to 32, and it's supposed to be Seattle, Vegas will shake up conferences, right? So of course the Seattle reporters are- Mm-hmm...
35:10
like, going nuts about, like- Going nuts... "Give us information here." And to some degree the Vegas folks do too. Some degree- Yeah... but obviously we know why- Yeah...
35:16
Seattle missing the Sonics cares way more about it.
35:19
Um, so they've been going nuts and they, they, you know, the biggest thing to come out of the last owners meeting is just, like, how they're gonna get more involved with the whatever, whatever chaos is going on in the European leagues right now.
35:30
It sounds like the NBA is just gonna ta- step in and take advantage of that chaos and kind of rebrand everything under the NBA flag.
35:37
And it's, yeah, every time they've met, it was, Silver said in the past, like, "Hey, we gotta, we gotta get through this, we gotta get through this, we gotta get through this, and then we're gonna talk expansion."
35:45
Well, the last thing that was on that list from what I remember, Gil- Yeah... was the Celtics sale. And now that the Celtics sale is done, I don't really know what we're waiting for. But, but that's the thing.
35:54
Adam Silver has always then come up with a different priority- Yeah... to, to go ahead of the line of expansion. And not that I'm like, I, not that, I mean, we just talked- We'll see...
36:02
about the, the draft lottery yesterday, right? There's a lot of crappy teams in basketball. I'm not, I'm not an NBA fan that's beating the drum that we need 32, that I need more, two more teams all that badly.
36:13
It's just weird. Let me, let me ask you this, though. If Vegas did get a team, would you try to get season tickets? Yeah. Oh, yeah, so would I. Brian, uh, @Brian9330076, "Did Jason..." [laughs] This is a great point.
36:24
I almost said something, but I, I thought better of it. He said, "Did Jason poo-poo the PGA Championship? Since when do they abbreviate a major golf championship [laughs] because of weather?" Yeah, I noticed that too.
36:35
Uh- That was, yeah... yeah, yeah, they'll get it all in somehow. They'll get it all in. I, I think his, I think his main point was- [laughs]... he's worried about it starting on time tomorrow, which is, is fair.
36:43
Yes, but they never abbreviate it. That's fair. No, they're not abbreviating. Yeah. Corbin, Corbin13- Even if it finishes next Wednesday, they will get it all in. [laughs] That's right.
36:49
"Good morning, guys, wondering if you ended up getting to the Shooting Guards documentary yet?" Oh, gosh, stop bringing it up. No. [laughs] He's, he's- I really wanna watch it... he's just wondering. Yeah, I know.
36:59
Uh, uh, also curious if you guys caught the pic, oh, I did, of Nicolas Cage playing John Madden in an up and coming movie. Not too sure what I think based off this picture. I'll tell you what I think.
37:10
He just looks odd no matter what. You see this picture of Nicolas Cage as John Madden? Yeah. Oh, God. Yeah, Rob sent it to me earlier too. Yeah. I, I did, I actually didn't know that...
37:18
Well, that came out a while ago, right? 'Cause wasn't there a shot taken while they were shooting it or something, and everybody was like, "This is Nic Cage," like, like, Madden.
37:25
I didn't realize that Christian Bale is in it, uh, playing Al Davis, which is- Yeah... honestly as odd-looking in the picture that I looked at of him.
37:33
Well, it doesn't even look, it doesn't even look like Christian Bale in the picture. Right. Right. Whereas Nicolas Cage is like, "Come on, guys, we're gonna win the Super Bowl."
37:40
[laughs] That, it, that's the, like, the, it's not so much the look. I wanna hear- Yeah... how Nic Cage pulls off the Madden voice. That's right. It's gonna be so bad.
37:49
Johnny Brock, "The way Gil cuts his guests off when they're up against it is second to none." Thank you, Johnny Brock. It's a hard out. My bad. I don't know, I just have to, I have to time it better with some guests.
38:00
Yeah. D- did you- Some guests look at the clock, some don't. Everybody has their moments. I love Dave Ross. Yeah. So I'll call him out. He did it today to Adam Burke. He did it today. It was kind of funny.
38:07
[laughs] I heard, I heard it on the way in. He's like, "Thanks, Adam." [laughs] It was, like, zero time left though. I was like, "One more question for you. Oh, wait, gotta go. Sorry."
38:14
[laughs] Thing is, it varies, 'cause if it's, if it's Dr. Bob, if it gets to four minutes and 30 seconds left, it's too late. Yeah, you're, yeah, you're sweating already. Yeah. It's too late.
38:22
These are the things you guys don't realize. Gil's gotta think about. Yeah. Oh, God, just sh- herding sheep is what I'm doing over here. Uh, let's recap our best bets. GBank, courtesy of GBank, the official bank of VSiN.
38:33
Every host, every guest, every sport, every show, recapped by VSiN, or by, uh, GBank I should say, the official bank of VSiN.
38:39
Mine today, once again, the only one, uh, remaining here in tennis, hit Coco Gauff earlier, uh, over Mirra Andreeva in straight sets.
38:47
I do have the over 21 games played in the Sabalenka- Zheng Qinwen match that is about to take place, oh, about a little more than an hour from now. So over 21 games, as I mentioned.
38:58
Sabalenka has dominated her thus far in their very small head-to-head competitions, but never have they played on clay. So I expect this to be a little more competitive. Over 21 games is the remaining play in tennis.
39:10
Added more to Jackson Merrill, NL MVP yesterday, 80 to 151 and now 25 to one. I'm building a rather large position on Jackson Merrill to be the National League MVP. Pacers series price cashed, the adjusted. Cha-ching.
39:24
Cha-ching. After game one I put that in, after they were up one to nothing. We shall see if the Nuggets gets there. That was also placed after game one in that series. Obviously that one not looking quite as good.
39:34
Kelly Bidelon. You know what was funny? Uh, actually we're gonna get to mine later 'cause I'll run through all the golf here. Oh, yes. Okay.
39:39
Uh, it was funny though 'cause I did, I did play that money line on the Pacers last night. I don't know if you heard me walk through that, but I was gonna kind of martingale that of- Oh...
39:45
just like if I lost, go right back to it. Right. But then you're like, you hit something like that, and you're like, "Well, yeah, but I wanna, I shoulda bet more," right? [laughs] Like... Shoulda bet more. Oh, man.
39:54
Speaking of shoulda bet more. Speaking of shoulda bet more, Will Hill's best bets on the show, that's the name of his podcast. He's on the Knickerbockers tonight, plus four and a half points.
40:02
Knicks tonight plus four and a half points at, uh, what do they call it now? TD Garden, is that what it is, the latest- Mm-hmm... uh, iteration of the Garden in Boston.
40:09
Knicks plus four and a half in what could be the end of the Celtics season. Talk about the number one seed Cavs already out, could be the end of the number two Celtics. He's on the Knicks plus four and a half.
40:20
He's on the Warriors team total under today in Minnesota, at Minnesota. Under 95 and a half points for the Dubs, and he is also taking the T-Wolves minus the points. He's laying the wood, laying 11 with Minnesota.
40:34
Does A-Rod annoy you, by the way? Oh, yeah. As the, as the owner? Yeah. Always has. Yeah. Why, why the coat and tie? Irritating. Why the full suit?
40:40
Uh, in baseball he's on Tarik Skubal under four and a half hits allowed in the Tigers game today, and he's on the Rangers on the run line, giving up the one and a half, uh, there as well. Jason Weingarten had one play.
40:51
Uh, we extracted this from him. The Athletics on the run line. Is that plus 340? That can't be right. No, he's lay- yes, he's laying a run and a half. Oh, he's laying the run and a half. As the, as the dog. Yeah.
41:01
Correct, as the dog, plus 340 against the New York Yankees. New York Yankees. Uh, and then, uh, there's Kelly with the one basketball play. Yeah, I got one, just one small.
41:10
I'm gonna go team total over 106 and a half, just placed that here during the break. Uh, I'll be on that, and then I've got a bunch of PGA Championship bets for you. How about all 20 of them here in- Whoo...
41:20
uh, less than three minutes? Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas in the outright markets. Uh, covering those with top fives on Rory and Bryson, then a top 10 on Justin Thomas.
41:31
You might ask, uh, you might be asking, "Kelly, why? Why are you doing it that way?" Well, I don't know. Hey, Kelly, why are you doing it that way? We don't have each way betting out there.
41:38
If you have each way betting, I highly, uh, suggest you take advantage of it. Always shop around and check odds, make sure it's the right thing to be doing.
41:45
But the way you could do that a little bit, uh, with the markets we have available is cover it with top fives.
41:51
Given the price, I thought the price was just silly on Justin Thomas for top 10, so I went a little bit further back with him. Uh, plus 215 on his top 10.
41:59
Top 20s, love both these guys this week, Xander Schauffele and Corey Conners. Uh, o- minus 115 on top 20 with Schauffele, uh, two to one with top 20 on Corey Conners.
42:09
Also played Conners in the top 30 market, along with Andrew Novak and Bud Cauley there. Those are two of the, two of the longer shots I'm getting involved with, uh, this week, Gil.
42:19
Uh, and then Berger, I just, I went back a step and I said, "You know what? Just make me top 40, Daniel Berger. You've been great ball striking this year."
42:25
He doesn't have that distance off the tee to probably put himself into contention here this weekend, but man, the rest of the game has been so steady. I like a top 40 bet at minus 110, uh, on him.
42:36
As far as tournament matchups that I have played, and I might add one or two more, uh, here before we tee off tomorrow.
42:42
Again, all of these can be found vsin.com, Long Shots podcast up, uh, wherever you download your podcasts, up on YouTube as well. Check it out. Uh, Xander Schauffele over Collin Morikawa.
42:52
I also played Justin Thomas over Collin Morikawa. Not, not a huge fan of Morikawa this week, but I do think he, uh, should be priced further back against those two than that. J.J.
43:04
Spaun over Olesen minus 124, Berger minus 122 over Patrick Reed. Just don't think this is the course for Patrick Reed. Uh, not Augusta. Jordan Spieth minus 132 over Brooks Koepka.
43:16
That is a matchup bet, Gil, I did not think I ever pl- thought, saw, saw myself making ever [laughs] on Spieth against Koepka, who has won me a lot of money- Wow... before in the past.
43:25
And then, uh, one little nationality prop, Corey Conners, top Canadian, plus 160. All right.
43:31
Um, after Money Moves, by the way, when, uh, Stormy and, uh, JB T leave the studio, I'm gonna do a podcast, Beating the Book podcast, the Q1, Major League Baseball Q1 derivatives pod, which Mark Borchardt and I have done for over a decade now.
43:44
We do Q1, Q2, Q3, all kinds of betting stats, full game, uh, first fives, first inning stats that no one else has, so we'll do that after the show.
43:53
By the way, the best, the, uh, best bets courtesy of GBank, brought to you by the GBank Visa Signature card. Most credit cards treat sportsbook and gaming transactions as cash advances.
44:01
That's even when you put your own money on the card. GBank treats gaming transactions as purchases, so you're saving up to three to five percent on cash advance fees on gaming transactions right there.
44:10
Also with GBank, you're earning 1% cash back rewards on all eligible sportsbook and gaming transactions and 2% cash back rewards on all eligible purchases. Apply now at vsin.com/gbank. That's vsin.com/gbank.
44:22
NFL schedule full release tonight. We look forward to that. Money Moves next with Story Bonnetone, Jonathan Von Tobel, and Joy from VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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