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May 15, 2024
A Numbers Game | May 15, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 15, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in this morning, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:18
It's Kelly Midland live from Barcelona here at the T, uh, the Barrage.
0:22
Still to come this hour, uh, Mark Borcherdt and I, base winner and I did a Beating the Book podcast yesterday, Q1 derivatives, uh, in baseball, meaning basically at the 40 game mark of the 162 game schedule, give or take a few games for each team.
0:36
Obviously schedules are not, uh, uniform. Uh, we go into a deep dive in all kinds of baseball stats from a betting perspective, some more proprietary than others.
0:46
Uh, Kelly and I will do a little sort of cursory thing on it later, and I will talk about one of the things that we revealed on the podcast of a proprietary nature, 'cause we do first five inning betting stats, which are not really readily available after all this time.
1:00
It's very strange. Mm-hmm. You can't, like, they're not abundant. Right, yeah. Uh, but we'll talk about first fives here later on the show. We also did on the podcast, we also did, of course, umpires.
1:08
Mark has all the historical umpire numbers, which should help you sort of take you off bets sometimes if you're leaning, um, oppo to what those umpires' tendencies are, are over under.
1:19
Uh, we also do first inning numbers, which you can't find anywhere else on the podcast as well. But we'll get into, uh, some of the first five numbers that we, uh- The, it's a great podcast, though.
1:27
Like, I love when you and Mark always do those. Like, it's, especially for someone like me that's, you know, wrapped up in so much NBA and golf, I think it's a great, like- Thank you... hey, what's been going on too.
1:36
Yeah. Right? What are the s- some of the teams you should have your eye on after the first, you know, quarter of the season. Oh, thank you for that.
1:41
And baseball is, is so long that most people, let's f- let's face it, the average American sports fan isn't locked in necessarily- Right... on a day-to-day basis.
1:49
But there are some nuggets from a betting perspective, you're like, "Whoa, how does that team- Mm-hmm... figure out in there?"
1:54
So, uh, and by the way, Mark and I have been doing those derivatives, those baseball derivative pods, as long, if not slightly longer, than we've been doing the mega pods and guessing lines. That's incredible.
2:04
So that was really the one that started it all. And then, uh, obviously we'll, uh, circle back to the NBA. Jason Weingarten will join us as well. Uh, let's talk some, uh...
2:12
Oh, before we get to Valhalla, I do have a tennis play later today in Italy. [laughs] That's, yeah, I got, we- I wish I would stop making, I wish I would n- not make expressions. Uh, Valhalla. Valhalla.
2:21
[laughs] I know, once I said that, I couldn't un-hear it. [laughs] Valhalla. Yeah, I think you're, like, stuck saying it that way. I know. I'm in trouble.
2:29
Uh- I also like that they just built a golf course in Kentucky, and it's like Valhalla. Yes. Right. This great Viking phrase. You're in Louisville. Let's meet the gods. That's right. Here in Kentucky.
2:39
[laughs] Come to Kentucky for our golf course. Um, I do have a tennis play. Clay has not been kind, quite frankly. Um, hard court season was just unbelievable, 26 units up. We've given a few back, uh, during clay season.
2:53
I took a flyer today on Taylor Fritz, the number one American player in the world. I think he's 12th, uh, globally. Uh, he's taking on Sasha Zverev today in Italy at the, uh, at the I- the Italian Open in Rome.
3:07
That's a little later on. And you can get a better number than I got. I, I put it in overnight at vsin.com/picks, as I always do if I have a tennis play.
3:15
Uh, Taylor Fritz's clay numbers are every bit as good, if not better, than Sasha Zverev's. But to most, Zverev has looked better in this tournament.
3:24
I don't know that I necessarily agree with that either based on competition. So I took, uh, I took Taylor Fritz at plus 142. You can get him at plus 158 right now, I'm seeing.
3:34
So Taylor Fritz is the play as a dog today against Sasha Zverev in Italy. Real quick question for you. On the, uh, like you said, you're starting off sl- slow with clay.
3:44
Is it every time you, every time surface change, does it feel, is it a bit of a just kind of hard reset almost to a season? Yeah, and let me clarify. I didn't, I, I did start off slow. I mean, we're well into clay here.
3:56
We're about to be at the end of clay. Um, usually clay's pretty good. It's not as good as hard courts. But yes, to answer your question, it's always a reset. Like from- Like-... hard courts to clay
4:08
at the end of, like, the sunshine double, it's like, it's like handicapping a new sport in some ways. Right. Yeah, yeah. That's what I was gonna say. Yeah. 'Cause, 'cause then it's
4:16
like, like sometimes, like I would assume you can't, you're not overreacting when you switch surfaces to bad or b- or great starts. No. Right? Like it's- No, no, no, no, no. Yeah. Yeah.
4:25
Yeah, I mean, you're aware that there's a good, there's a great South American clay court circuit with a lot of good Latin American players.
4:34
But then once they get to play the elite players of the world, the Djokovics of the world, and the Sasha Zverevs, and the Casper Ruuds, and, you know, then chickens come home to roost- Yeah...
4:44
a bit, a bit as well there too, 'cause those guys are still just gods in the sport period. But there, but it's definitely, grass is the most janky one, 'cause grass is in and out. Right.
4:53
And grass is just faster than hard court, and you really don't know what to make of that necessarily. So you kind of just, you gotta kind of go with your guys on, on grass a little bit more.
5:00
Well, I mean, you're looking at numbers, but you're also looking at hard court numbers in addition. But, but clay hasn't been great, um, so far, admittedly. Uh, it hasn't been terrible either.
5:09
We just, it's, it's sort of like you're not at your Bitcoin highs. You're a little off the Bitcoin highs. That's how we are with clay right now. Uh, okay, Valhalla. Can I just- Valhalla...
5:17
talk about the Rory thing real quick? Yeah. So we know Scottie Scheffler just had a child. Scottie Scheffler is your short shot. Rory is the second shot. Rory is playing great golf.
5:26
Rory just announced he is getting divorced. Mm-hmm. Um, do you remember when he broke up with Caroline Wozniacki, bringing tennis back into this? Yeah. So Caroline Wozniacki was
5:38
v- she had been the number one player in the world. Like tennis hardos don't remember this.
5:42
Caroline Wozniacki was the world number one, like four years before Rory McIlroy, via three-minute phone call, they got engaged, the wedding invitations went out, and then via three-minute phone call, he broke up with her,
5:58
and he had made their relationship public. Like she wasn't really into b- being public. Mm-hmm. But he had made a point to make it public. So then she was subjected to this like public... breakup.
6:09
And for years afterwards when he was with his wife that he's now getting divorced from, he would be like, "Yeah, at least I could be myself around her."
6:17
Like, he was, like, taking subtle shots at Wozniacki the whole time, and she's like, "What, what, what's going on here? Why are you still talking about this?" Meanwhile, she got married to David Lee, former Warrior.
6:26
She has two kids. I keep forgetting that. Yeah. You, you, I feel like you bring that up randomly once in a while. I keep forgetting it's David Lee.
6:31
'Cause people talk about it like it's something she's, he was with some girl. He was with the number one women's tennis player in the world. She was better at his, at her sport than he was at his. Yeah.
6:40
Uh, I know I've told you this story. I've talked about this on air, 'cause there's parts of it I don't want to talk about on air.
6:46
But remember I was telling you about the Venus Williams shoot I had the one day at Caroline Wozniacki.
6:51
[laughs] There's, like, the Williams camp where there's, like, 30 people involved just in the most basic practice for, like, Venus. And then, like, Caroline Wozniacki is, like, three courts over- Yeah...
7:00
just, like, by herself with one coach, and, like, Rory's just, like, standing there. Like, it was, like, really awkward. [laughs] Well, so my point in all that, I guess, is to ask you, do you buy into this very, um...
7:12
You know how dudes are. They're like, "Well, now he, now he's getting divorced, he's gonna be great again." Do you buy into any of that? I don't buy into any of that. Yeah.
7:18
No, not even, like, the, I mean, you hear the baby, the baby swag stuff brought up all the time, too. Like, I, I don't know.
7:25
I've never had any children, so maybe you instantly get better at your job, like, right afterward. Maybe that is a thing.
7:30
But I, people bring it up, I don't, I don't- Maybe you should go out and have some and we'll find out. We'll figure it out. [laughs] Yeah.
7:37
I don't really buy into i- I'm not, I'm not, I don't know if it's a thing or not a thing. I'm sure it is more of a thing with some people, but, like, how do you, how do you quantify that? How do you handicap it?
7:46
So I kind of throw it all out. Yeah. Like, I don't think Scottie Scheffler we're expecting to be any better or worse this week than if this, uh, tournament was played a month ago. All right.
7:54
Just had to be asked, 'cause everybody's- Yeah, no, no, no... you know. I'm, I'm glad you brought it up, 'cause no, I don't factor that stuff in really at all. All right, what are you looking for on this course?
8:02
It's gonna be long. It's gonna be tough. It's gonna be a test to every part of the game, just like majors should be.
8:08
Um, you're seeing these PGAs, uh, become, they're, they're becoming, the past few years, they're playing a little bit more like US Opens. These are tough courses.
8:15
They're usually picking long, tough courses to put these PGAs at. So, uh, field 156. Keep in mind, if you are doing, uh, cut parlays or anything like that, it is top 70 in ties, not top 65.
8:27
That is something to keep in mind. You have extremely 30-yard fairways, if you're watching the video at home right now. You got 30-yard fairways. That's, it's narrow, Gil, but it's not brutal.
8:36
The problem is if you go too far, uh, into the rough, you're going to encounter four-inch high rough- Ooh... which is gonna be fun for these guys to hack out of. Yes. Four inches.
8:46
And it's apparently, uh, by some reports, uh, we've had a, a warmer than usual spring in Kentucky, so that four inches is actually taller than that because of the grass growing, uh, throughout the spring.
8:56
So if you are targeting doing your own handicapping at home, y- I, I emphasized guys that were good off the tee very, very heavily this week, about as much as I will, uh, at any tournament.
9:09
Looking at guys that are not only hitting it accurately, you want to be hitting your second shot from those fairways, but guys that are long, too.
9:15
And there is a little bit more forgiveness, uh, with the f- with the fairways being 30 yards, and you do have a little bit of that first cut. So if you miss the fairway, distance over accuracy by a little bit.
9:26
But off the tee, super important this week. You got three par fives, Gil. Gotta score on these par fives. So if you're doing your own kind of stats at home, handicapping at home, look for guys to score on par fives.
9:36
Yes, that's usually gonna correlate with guys that hit o- hit far off the tee. [laughs] You get a little bit shorter shot with that second shot at a chance to get on the green in those par fives.
9:44
That's gonna be really key this week. But you gotta look at everything.
9:47
Approach, if you are looking at approach numbers, um, 175 yards to two, over 200 yards, you're gonna see a lot of approach shots this week on those par fours. That's extremely important.
9:58
Scrambling is gonna be big this week. These greens are smaller. Uh, you're gonna see some guys having to play around the green. Sand's gonna come into play. There is one of the changes to the course from 10 years ago.
10:10
Uh, they did take away some of the rough that kind of protects those traps on the fairways, so you're gonna see a lot of balls that get driven that run out out of the fairway into the g- uh, into the traps as well.
10:20
So something to keep in mind. It's a major. It's a test of everything this week, right?
10:23
But you gotta figure out what are you kind of emphasizing a little bit more than others, and that's really where I looked, uh, really looked at distance, c- long approach shots, guys that can score on par fives.
10:35
Um, that was the stuff that I focused on the most. A- again, everything's important. Putting's important. If you want to look at bent grass putters, who's done well on those, go ahead.
10:43
I would say emphasize more, uh, guys that pu- uh, putt well on really lightning fast greens. That's what you're gonna see this week. These are gonna be really, really fast.
10:51
Um, for me, now, when, when you talk, when you talk speed, the, when you, when you get really fast or really slow greens, Gil, it does kind of, it, it, it kind of levels the playing field a bit because the tough, uh, it's not necessarily easy putting conditions for the great putters who are used to something a little bit more in the middle.
11:09
If it's really slow or really fast, kind of brings everybody a little bit closer together.
11:14
So that's my long way of saying maybe I bet on some guys that aren't the greatest putters this week that I'm hoping get a little bit of a spike. 'Cause that is the, it's the hardest thing to handicap in golf is putting.
11:25
You're just looking for someone to run hot for a week, um, and, and, you know, hopefully put yourself into contention. So- All right, let's get into some of your bets on the other side. Yeah, go right ahead.
11:33
So let's- Uh, your outrights and beyond, and then, uh, some question as to why you're not betting some others. We'll get into that, plus the baseball stuff with the first five innings.
11:41
It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:44
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:00
Getting in-depth preview of the PGA Championship with VSiN's golf betting experts on the Long Shots podca- uh, podcast, pardon me.
12:07
It's called Long Shots Wes Reynolds, Matt Brown, and Kelly Biblin break down every aspect of this year's second golf major, including their best bets.
12:14
Subscribe and download the podcast with a new episode out Tuesday, or check out the live airing on VSiN. That was yester- uh, that is today at noon Eastern, 9:00 AM Pacific, right after this show.
12:23
Your live airing, right? That's right. That's right. VSiN, the sports betting network. And, you know, thank God we have one of the long shots guys here with us now, Kelly Biblin. Hey. Hey.
12:33
So you can, like, uh, tell us, uh, some of the stuff you bet. What did you, what did you end up with outrights, and then we'll go from there. I bet two whole outrights.
12:40
Um, I, look, I think there is a lot of win equity at the top of the board bes- uh, even besides Scottie Scheffler.
12:46
What Rory's done recently, I got, I'll, you know, tip of the cap from me to Rory, which I don't do very often. Um, I'm not, I'm not a Rory hater, but I'm not a Rory...
12:55
Like, how many times have you s- heard, heard me say I'm betting Rory McIlroy? Tha- it's not often. Except for that time you, you said he, he did, wasn't yucky dirty. [laughs] Other than that. Um, so two for me.
13:05
Like, but I think, but Koepka, Rory, Scheffler, they're all coming off of wins. I don't, you know, like, Koepka, you still gotta figure out, okay, really, you know, what's LIV mean? What do the results mean?
13:15
But man, he had a great putting week last week, too. I think he's a little scary coming into this week. So I am going very light with outrights.
13:21
I know that might not be the most fun thing for golf bettors out there to hear. Uh, but I, that's the state of the game right now.
13:27
If you're not, if you're not looking at Scheffler, um, it's really too far, it's, it's hard to look too far down the board. Yes, that's the squeaky wheel cart, Gil, yeah. [laughs] Oh, sorry. Gotta get out.
13:37
Um, I did play Jon Rahm at 20 to 1. I, I went into this tournament saying if they're gonna give me 18 or longer on Jon Rahm, I'm betting him.
13:44
He hasn't won on LIV yet, uh, but he also hasn't finished outside the top 10, uh, on LIV yet. So real- you know, good results. He's a guy that, we talked a little bit about this yesterday.
13:54
I mean, if he was still on the PGA tour, you wouldn't be catching nearly this kind of number. So I'll take a stab at him at 20 to 1. The other guy that, look, he's won three times in the past year.
14:02
He's shown he can play with these bi- uh, with these big guns. Will mention him, Wyndham Clark, I did play an outright on.
14:08
You will notice on the rest of my card, I didn't go back to those guys, so I'm not, I didn't really play him in any matchups, didn't really play him in any, uh, finishing position markets or anything like that.
14:16
This next crop of guys, I would say are the guys that I'm targeting for bets, uh, for, you know, for these other markets and sinking more money in. Xander Schauffele, top 10.
14:25
Auto, like, auto bet at this point, basically. It was the first bet I made, plus 150 for him to go top 10. Eight, eight top 10s in 11 starts this year for Xander Schauffele. Uh, he has been incredibly consistent.
14:36
Up until last week, I would've said second-best player on the PGA tour. You can push back with Rory now if you want. I'll still go Xander. He just doesn't win.
14:45
Tony Finau is, I think, the most interesting guy on my card for, to, even to myself, Gil, because he checks all the boxes this week.
14:54
His scrambling's even gotten a little better, but oh my gosh, this guy's putter, he can't get it figured out. Cannot get it figured out.
15:01
So when I talked last segment about I'm looking for someone to have a spike putting week, okay, it'll- He's the guy... Tony Finau's one of the next several guys- Yeah... this applies to.
15:09
But if you're looking, if you think, there's a chance Tony Finau misses the cut, right?
15:14
But if he plays as well as I've got him rated out, then I'd rather take a five to one on a top 10 than, you know, minus 130 on a top 40 or something like that, right? I'm, I'm, I'm gonna play the variance on that.
15:26
Top 20 is Bennie Aun, Adam Scott, Keith Mitchell, um, everybody on this card with length, uh, off the tee and with their irons.
15:34
Adam Scott, I, man, he, he keeps kind of floating around my, uh, my model's pretty high, Gil. Almost tournament, i- uh, every tournament here, uh, here in and here out, uh, each week.
15:45
If you go back 10 years ago, he was T15 here, but I don't really think [laughs] there's much to go off of there. Last 12 rounds, first in pi- uh, par five scoring, 23rd in driving distance, 26th in scrambling.
15:55
He's got solid recent results, four top 20 finishes on the season, just been hovering under the radar. Keith Mitchell, man, I love him again this week.
16:02
Last 12 rounds, fourth off the tee, 14th driving distance, 15th on approach, ninth on par five scoring. He is not a good around the green player or putter. He needs to have a big time, uh, spike putting week.
16:13
But top 20 at five to one you're giving me, I will play a long shot play on that. Played him in the top 40 market as well. Bennie Aun, been really consistent this year. Top 20 on him at plus 230.
16:24
Kurt Kitayama, I'm very interested to see where he ends up finishing, 'cause he rated out pretty high for me. Great off the tee.
16:30
Can the rest of the game match w- you know, w- where it was at s- last summer where he put up some really good finishes? Um, played a plus 140 on a top 40 for him. Tournament matchups then, Finau over Jordan Spieth.
16:43
I j- there's just nothing I've seen from Jordan Spieth that has any confidence whatsoever in him. Patrick Cantlay. I almost did a little bit more with Patrick Cantlay.
16:50
Might add a little bit more, maybe in the top 20 market on him. But right now, just a matchup play over Tyrrell Hatton. Kurt Kitayama, uh, over Denny McCarthy, and Adam Scott over Jason Day. That is my full card for now.
17:02
Might be a couple top 20 adds. All right, two questions. Yeah. One, Brooks Koepka just coming off a win in Singapore on the LIV Tour, his fourth LIV title.
17:10
He has obviously won four majors, two of which were PGAs, if I'm not mistaken. Mm-hmm. Obviously, the PGA has different courses. Um, no Brooks Koepka for you? Nothing. Um, no, but I, I completely...
17:25
I, look, if I wasn't betting Jon Rahm, I'd probably have Koepka on the card as an outright 'cause I think you could, I, I think you can make the same, same sort of case I just made for Rahm I think you could make for Koepka.
17:35
If those results were PGA Tour results, his, his number would be shorter than it even is. And by the way, I shortchanged Koepka. Five majors, three PGAs. Yeah. I forgot that he won in 2023. Yeah.
17:45
By the way- He's looking to make the very, uh, very exclusive list of six ma- six-time major. Bro, five majors. Yeah. Um, by the way, so he won the PGA last year. Uh, we were just talking about this off air.
17:56
The Michael Block story, if you had asked me- Right... without me looking up, like, what year did the Michael Block PGA thing happen, there is no chance I would've said last year. It, it feels- None.
18:07
It feels like eight years ago, right? It does. Yeah. I'm with you. Uh, and then the only other question I have here is this, and this applies to every tournament that he enters.
18:16
How, if, if you don't have any Scottie Scheffler, which you don't here at the beginning, at the pre-flop, how quickly into it? Is it one round of golf? Is it half a round of golf? Is it one and a half rounds? What is it?
18:27
How quickly into it does Scheffler have to perform well where you're like, "I can't take it anymore, I'm bet- I'm betting Scheffler"? Yeah. Well, well, I think they're...
18:35
So there's the, there's the live betting if he's performing well or if he's not performing well, right? Now, you can get a longer number on him. Correct. I think, which both ways- Both ways...
18:43
I don't think are necessarily bad to, bad to bet. Um, I think it's a good question because weather's gonna be interesting to monitor. I think on Friday, a little bit more likely we're gonna get rain.
18:52
So it's my way of saying, I think after a round is where I'd consider him, but if it does look like there's gonna be rain in the forecast on Friday, I might reevaluate things during second round is probably when.
19:03
During second round. Okay. Uh, real quick, uh, Mark Borchardt, base winner, and I did a Beating the Book podcast yesterday.
19:09
We do three of these a year, Q1, Q2, and Q3, 40 game mark, 80 game mark, 120 game mark of the Major League Baseball season.
19:16
And it is a deep dive into betting stats that, um, the purpose of which really is to figure out, okay, what's narrative? Hey, that was great.
19:25
That happened the first 40 games, or that happened the first 80 games, versus what is otherwise predictive, which is what we're really looking for to try to exploit the betting market.
19:34
Now, a lot of the things we talk about are widely available, uh, and then a lot of things are more proprietary. Um,
19:41
some of the more widely available are simply a look at, you know, which are the best money line teams in baseball from a monetary perspective.
19:48
So remember, it's a bizarro exercise where you'd bet on this team every single game that they've played already this year, whether as a favorite or as an underdog, and where you would be had you done that.
20:01
And oftentimes it brings up interesting results. Right now, the number one top money-making team in baseball this year is the Washington Nationals of all team. And you're like, "Wait a minute, they're only 20 and 21."
20:12
Right, but they're dogs so often that when you are cashing on them, you are doing it at a rate that ultimately when you put it all in the wash, again, bizarro exercise, nobody's bet the Nationals all 41 games, at least I hope not.
20:24
Uh, you're probably doing something wrong if you are. [laughs] But you'd be up 10 plus units. You'd be up 10 and a half units doing that. The Guardians, that's my Guardians, Kelly, they'd be number two.
20:34
Nice win for the Guardians yesterday. Yankees would be three, Phillies would be four, Brewers would be five.
20:38
Those teams are more the teams you would expect to be there because they're really good teams at baseball and have really good records, and even when they're favorites, they're getting through.
20:46
Um, by the way, the bottom of that, who are the biggest hemorrhagers in baseball, again, bizarro exercise if you bet them every single game thus far this year, the Miami Marlins are by far the biggest loser for folks.
20:59
You'd be down 17.35 units. By the way, if you're betting the Marlins every single game, something is wrong with you.
21:05
Uh, but the Astros, this would make more sense to people, the Astros would be the second worst, and people, that makes sense intuitively because the Astros have a lot of pre-flop, preseason hype, as they always do.
21:15
Big favorites. And they're 17 and 25. Right. If you're watching at home, these are based off $100 bets, the money you're seeing. $100 bets. $100 bets if they're underdogs, to win 100 if they're favorites.
21:25
And so, uh, Marlins would, would co- cost you over 17 units, the Astros over 10, almost 11, and the White Sox, Angels, and Giants, that makes sense, three, four, five. Again, they're just bad at baseball.
21:35
But you can learn some stuff. So when we did five innings, remember you can of course bet first fives in baseball. Mm-hmm. You would think, okay, well, is this stuff consistent? And it rarely ever is.
21:46
And first five, if you had any guess, most profitable first five teams in baseball this year. Do you know who the most profitable is? Yankees.
21:53
Phillies, which they, they're the first team to win 30 games, so that would make sense also, right? That you'd be up nine units betting the Phillies. They're 29, 11 and 3. Remember, you can push on first fives.
22:04
Boston is second. Washington is third. Washington third. Remember, they were good, full money line too. Milwaukee's fourth, Chicago Cubs fifth. Guess who's the sixth most profitable first five team in baseball this year?
22:16
The Chicago White Sox. Wow. Who in your standings, in your real life standings, are fifth... Excuse me, 13 and 30. But they're the sixth most profitable first five team. And by the way,
22:31
one of your least profitable first five teams, the, the least profitable of all, the St.
22:38
Louis Cardinals, 11, 25 and 6, who aren't very good in real life, but they're a heck of a lot better at 18 and 24 than their first five stats indicate. Anyway, that's the Beating the Book podcast. Check it out.
22:51
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. So Kelly, I says to him, I says, "When does the suit end, and where does Perk begin?"
22:59
Oh, uh, don't miss VSiN special programming tonight, breaking down the NFL schedule release. We started the show with this. It is schedule release day.
23:07
Check out VSiN Prime Time NFL Schedule Release Special at 8:00 PM Eastern to get instant analysis as the schedules come out tonight.
23:14
Then at 9:00 PM Eastern, it is a special edition of The Handle, the NFL Schedule Release Special from The Handle.
23:20
Matt Brown, Mike Somich will talk with odds makers to give their analysis on which bets you can take advantage of.
23:25
That's VSiN's NFL Schedule Release Special starting tonight at 8:00 PM Eastern, only on VSiN, the sports betting network. Remember when we used to be on VSiN Prime Time? As they were coming out, we would- Mm-hmm.
23:37
Remember our, our guys back behind the scenes would produce the schedules on the fly. They're gonna do that tonight as well. Man, you are setting high expectations for this show.
23:47
[laughs] Everybody, everybody back there is like, "Shut up, Gil. We're not doing that." Gil's like, "I don't have to host it this year. I'm gonna keep saying how great it's gonna be." [laughs] Oh, sorry. It's great.
23:56
No, no, you're right. I mean, the crew does amazing work. They, they try their best. I don't...
23:59
I mean, really the timing, you know, the toughest part about this, 'cause we've done mult- multiple of these before, is you could co- go into this with a great game plan, but you don't know exactly- 100%...
24:10
how the show's gonna go and how you could follow it. 100%. Yeah. And you don't know where the schedule's going. R- Right. Exactly. So, uh, real quick before we get to Jason, Jason Weingart standing by.
24:20
So again- Before the break, we just talked about first five inning stats as just one of the things we talked about on the Beating the Book, uh, MLB Q1 Derivative show that I did with, uh, Mark Borchardt.
24:30
Mark and I have done these shows for over a decade now, these podcasts.
24:34
What I wanted to point out about that was, you know, 'cause the readily available stuff is, oh, which are the biggest money line teams thus far this year? Which are the worst? We also did home/road splits.
24:43
We also did which are the best run line teams. The de facto power rating, of course. And so your job as a handicapper is to figure out, all right, what of that is narrative, what of that is predictive?
24:52
But what's great about baseball, and we highlighted this with our March/April bet, with our May bet, uh, there's so many different ways to bet the sport that when we talked about first fives, in there that nugget of, as bad as the White Sox are in real life, and Borchardt has them as his worst team, they're the sixth most profitable first five team.
25:13
Now, what does that mean?
25:15
That means that in a betting market, as bad as the White Sox are discussed and as, uh, as, uh, talked about, justifiably so in mainstream media, that actually from a betting standpoint, their starting pitching is competent enough that they're actually kind of okay.
25:31
And because of the dog prices, they do very well for first five bettors. Now, what does that also mean? It also means that their bullpen is crapola. Like, the worst, right?
25:39
And conversely, the Cardinals, a little more nuanced. The Cardinals are 18 and 24. Um, not good at baseball, right? Not good, but not horrible in your standings.
25:50
And yet, as a first five betting vehicle, they are horrific.
25:56
They're the worst possible team in all of Major League Baseball, uh, where their first five numbers, again, 18 and 24 in real life, but their first five numbers on the Cardinals, 11, 25 and 6.
26:06
You'd be down 15 units if you bet the Cardinals first five every game this year. And again, that's just a bizarro exercise. But anyway, little nuggets like that.
26:14
And then we talked about first inning pitchers and that kind of stuff. So, uh, check it out, Beating the Book Q1 MLB Derivative show, derivative betting show with Mark Borchardt, Basewinner.
26:23
Jason Weingarten joins us from under a cloud of smoke courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter, @spreadapedia.
26:31
He is a day away from flying to London, England to go see Crawley try to get to League One. How you doing, Jason? Pretty good. Pretty, pretty excited. Been, uh, been traveling around the last couple weeks.
26:42
Just got done with, uh, back to back weddings. Uh, you know, so one more trip on the horizon, and then maybe we'll get some, uh, some time to focus on baseball every day.
26:52
[laughs] Are you at that age where all your friends are getting married? No, I'm at the age where all my friends are having kids. Okay. But y- you're a- you're attending weddings left and right, though. Two.
27:04
Um, I mean, that's- that's more than- than normal. Okay. But less than some, I suppose. Yeah. Lay off the guy, Gil. He's popular, okay? Come on. There's one on the left and there's one on the right. There you go.
27:11
So I said left and right. [laughs] Okay. You're right. All right, it's just two. All right. Well, so now again, um, for those who missed this, we, 'cause we had Preston on last week.
27:19
Preston J- uh, not, the week before last, pardon me. Preston Johnson, co-chairman of Crawley Town. You are involved in the team as well to the extent that you're, that you care to share to the extent you're involved.
27:31
But you are headed to Wembley for the game this Sunday, Crawley versus Crewe. Crawley wins promotion from League Two to League One. Could you have imagined this in your wildest dreams in year number two?
27:45
Um, you know, probably the day we got the team, we, we hoped we'd, we'd be in a situation like this. And then the reality set in, um, of actually running and managing a, a minor league soccer team.
27:58
And, and so at that point, no, I, I did not think we would necessarily be here this quickly. It's, you know, it's, it's always a challenge and there's always things going on and it's, uh, it's, it's very cool, though.
28:10
Um, but yeah.
28:11
So to be here is, is amazing for the players and Scott Lindsey, the coach who kind of took over and righted the, the ship and, you know, has done a lot of great things and, um, it's just a really cool situation.
28:23
And, uh, to, you know, it- hopefully this is just the first step in many steps of- Yeah... you know, event- eventually getting higher.
28:30
But, you know, you always remember your, your first Super Bowl or [laughs] you know, the mo- the, the, it's, the, the first thing is the most meaningful, so hopefully just going to get to be a part of this is, is gonna be an experience, and we worry about everything else later.
28:45
And Crawley is a favorite here, right? Uh, yeah. That's a little scary of a thought to, to be the favorite all of a sudden.
28:52
Obviously, uh, winning the, the playoff, the two, the two leg playoff eight to one probably had a bit to do with it. Excuse me, nine to one. Um- Nine to one. Yeah...
29:00
highest, highest margin of victory in any FL playoff ever, by the way, um, which is crazy to think about. That's Crawley's aggregate score in both of the playoff games. Wow. Nine to one, uh, crushed. Yeah.
29:12
Have you let your mind drift to what is beyond this? Like, have you- Nope. No, you have not. Nope. Not, not worrying about anything. You know, just going in and I wanna enjoy. Okay. Take in the experience, you know?
29:26
It's, it's a, it's that kind of thing if you, if you already go in and assume you're gonna win, you're gonna be disappointed and, and I wanna, you know, take, like I said, I wanna take in the experience, enjoy it all, and 'cause you never know if you're gonna get to do it again.
29:39
Yeah. I'm sorry I can't be there, man, but that, that was funny. That was one of those nopes that Jason just gave me, which is, "Don't even let the words come out of your mouth." [laughs] Just nope. [laughs] I have not.
29:48
Like, people- Yeah... people were text- people were texting me in the second half of the game, "Are you booking tickets to London?" Oh, geez. And I wanted to kill them. Yeah. Don't do that. I was like, I don't...
29:57
I- immediately, they scored a goal right after someone texted me. I was like, "If you text me again, we're gonna have a problem." [laughs] We're, we're done. [laughs] That's right.
30:05
Um, well, enjoy every ex- every moment of the experience. Soak it in, man. It's gonna be awesome. Um, t- one of life's great experiences. We should all be so lucky. Um, okay. Let's, uh, let's go to baseball.
30:18
You haven't been paying attention to it. Did you bet anything today? Oh, well, I have, I have been paying attention to baseball.
30:24
Um, I just, you know, I, I haven't, I, I don't get to watch a game or two every night at the, at the moment, which, which I have in, in years past. But, um, yeah, I mean, I'm, I'm paying attention to stuff.
30:35
I, I obviously, you know, I read the, the newspapers and kind of crawl the, the beat writers for, for info and see what's going on still. Um, one thing I really got my eye on is the Angels.
30:46
The Angels continue to just be a mess. Yep. Um, Ron Washington went from I'm not blaming the players to I'm blaming the players to it's not a rebuilding year. [laughs] Is it a rebuilding year?
30:58
They don't have anything to rebuild with. So of course when they say it's win now, it's 'cause yeah, you're all gonna get fired. The, the next GM is gonna be rebuilding.
31:05
Nobody, nobody who works for the Angels right now in the front office or the coaching staff is gonna be involved in the next rebuild, so of course they're in the, the win now mode. But the Angels are a disaster.
31:16
They're, they're, they're just top to bottom an absolute disaster. The Marlins, absolutely a disaster. I mean, I just wanna call them losers. Like, this is what losers look like. Losers lose, you know, winners win.
31:28
Um, we're watching losers just lose every day right now when you watch the Marlins, watch the Angels. I'm trying to think which other teams I've been incredibly disappointed in. The Rockies, by the way. Rockies.
31:38
They're on a six game, six game win streak. Uh- Haven't lost in a week. Yes. What's, what's gotten into them? [laughs] I know, it's awesome. Now, Kelly and I, here's the thing.
31:46
So, um, May 1st, 'cause I, it was the morning after the Guardians March, April dramatic loss, we were going through worst, you know, team to finish with the fewest wins in all of Major League Baseball, and I said out loud, I was like, "Oh, Angels, 40 to 1, pretty interesting."
32:02
And that day Trout announced, "Yeah, you know those two bases I stole last night and helped the Angels win? I got hurt, so I'm out."
32:12
And it dropped to 30 to 1, and I immediately told Kelly, I'm like, "I'm betting this 30 to 1." You bet it as well, right? I bet it, yeah. Yeah.
32:18
So we've got the Angels 30 to 1 for worst record, and we do feel kind of live. Obviously a whole three quarters of a season to go. Very live. Yeah. They're, they're a disaster.
32:28
They're literally, I mean, like I was saying, I read the beat writer stuff a couple days ago, they didn't have a lineup posted 15 minutes before the game. Geez. They just don't have it together.
32:38
You know, it's, it's not... And then it's funny because I look at organizations which are doing things like, like hiring guys from Driveline to, to, to revitalize their whole operations and streamline everything.
32:49
It's like the, the Angels are so far behind, like, they, they have to spend twice as much now just to get up to, to where teams were two years ago. This is, this is such a disaster. I wouldn't even wanna work for them.
33:00
[laughs] Jason gets a call, he's like, "No, thank you." What did you bet today? Anything? No, I'm not, I'm not gonna work, I'm not gonna work for them. Uh, I actually did bet Colorado. Um, you're getting over 2 to 1.
33:12
Uh, 217 is what I see right now. Um, probably gonna, gonna lose that. And, uh, I bet the Blue Jays, uh, Blue Jays Orioles under 7 for the game. 7 minus 115. Right now the Marlins with the fewest wins at 12.
33:25
Uh, White Sox 13, Rockies 14 after the six game win streak, and the Angels at 15, baby. [clapping] We're real live. We love rooting against human achievement. Thank you, Jason. Safe flight tomorrow. Thank you.
33:40
Gonna hop on over to London and jam with The Stones. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
The NBA playoffs are heating up and so is the action at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA. New customers bet five bucks to get 150 in bonus bets instantly.
34:03
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now and use code VSiN. That's V-S-I-N, only on DraftKings. The crown is yours.
34:11
Uh, for those who missed it, I'm sure Steve Fezzik didn't miss it, by the way, 'cause Steve Fezzik is a, uh, a movie buff- Mm-hmm... and specifically a Fast Times at Ridgemont High movie buff.
34:20
But as Jason was, uh, leaving us this last segment, [laughs] he threw out, I don't think he quoted Spicoli perfect, uh, perfectly. Yeah, close enough. But close enough. Was this...
34:30
And so it was the surfer's dream, for those who are familiar with the movie Fast Times at Ridgemont High.
34:34
Jeff Spicoli had a dream at some point which featured Stu Nahan, right, like [laughs] and girls, uh, where he, uh, was to- Wins a big competition. He's, uh, yeah, having a dream... having a dream.
34:46
He won some surf competition, right. It was the same one where he's like, "All I need are some tasty waves, cool." Now [laughs] this is, uh- It's a way of looking at that wave and say, "Hey, let's party, bro."
34:55
[laughs] But he says in the, uh, in that interview, in the dream interview, he says, "Me and Mick are gonna wing on over to London and jam with The Stones." And so that's what, uh, Jason [laughs] was referencing.
35:05
He said it on the way out. But it's great. I was like, what's that from again? Is that from Fast Times? I remember it was a good line. I don't know what it was. Uh, we get texts, we get tweets.
35:11
Speaking of texts, we did get one from, uh, Steve Fezzik earlier. There's no birthday party in here. [laughs] Steve- That movie's so good. I haven't seen it in so long... Steve Fezzik, "Gobear started the COVID epidemic.
35:22
I blame him for all the world's problems." That's from Steve Fezzik. Um, Michael Montesano, "We will all now hear from the apologists for Gobear and excuses for him, lol. But it's Joker he's guarding, lol."
35:35
Oh, yeah, you missed that part of the show. Like, that was earlier. Lou Finicaro, Sweet Lou, Gamblu, "Scottie Scheffler round one score 69 and a half over plus 110." Lou said he took a big Italian bite of it. Okay.
35:48
You like that? Over 69 and a half. Do I like it? Yeah. First round, um, I haven't dug, dug in exactly into weather yet. I haven't done my first round leader bets yet.
36:00
So I mean, I don't, it's, it's hard for me to say over on anything, Scottie. But Lou, I hope you win your bet. Phil Weiss, we get- Not that I'd honor the ransom... we get tweets at Beat of the Book.
36:07
Phil Weiss, "If JVT had as much on Wemby DPOY as we did, he would've been crying like a two-year-old." [laughs] That's the always lovely Phil Weiss.
36:15
Just to follow VSiN, oh, he's talking about, uh, Will Hill and on, like, comment about his name of his podcast.
36:21
Just to follow VSiN said, "Perhaps I'd have more in my account based on the results had I increased the amount of my wager in previous action." That was the original name, and then we switched to Should've Bet More. Oh.
36:31
[laughs] Yeah. Brian Schaefer, yes you did, Brian. He said- What a terrible podcast that would be. [laughs] You missed the whole joke earlier. That's why. No, I know. I got it earlier. Oh, all right.
36:39
Brian Schaefer, uh, "Gil, I predicted the Phillies." Yes you did, Brian Schaefer. He said, "Gil, I predicted the Phillies to have most wins in the months of March, April. Now, here is my May prediction."
36:49
Well, you don't get to make the May prediction on May 15th. That's not how this works. Uh, but he says, "The Yankees and their favorable future schedule, but I'm rooting for the Guardians." Well, thank you for that.
37:00
Guardians are in, uh, sixth place right now, in the month of May. Sixth place. Trust the glove, "If you do not know, raising children is like being, uh, pecked to death by a duck, Kelly," he says.
37:15
"Not performance enhancing. Love, my kids."
37:18
[laughs] It's- I mean, I wasn't gonna say it, but [laughs] Kelly, we, we've already decided earlier on in the show that Kelly's gonna have kids and see if it improves his job performance.
37:26
[laughs] Uh, Brian- Just as an experiment. Yes, an experiment. [laughs] Just as an experiment. I don't think that's responsible. And giving them to Gil afterward. [laughs] Happily take them.
37:36
Uh, Brian M., "Valhalla was named, uh, after some guy drank too much bourbon, wandered into a field, and had a conversation. Uh, Odin, who told him, 'If you build it, they will come.'" Best listeners, though. Oh, man.
37:50
Jason H11, "Last I saw, the weather is coming Friday afternoon. Scotty being late Thursday, early Friday makes me think the latest I'd bet him would be early during his Friday round." Hmm. There you go. Yeah.
38:02
Some actionable weather information. Valhalla, Chance Copper Pot, "How dare you call me out for betting the Marlins every game? I'm not betting on them, but I'm betting them. Seen a lot of Marlins baseball this season.
38:15
They are atrocious, holding my worst record plus 450 ticket." Yeah, plus 450 is where he got that. 30 to one on our Angels. Kelly, you excited? Yeah. Sometimes it's hard to get excited midnight.
38:27
Uh, well, no, like, it, it is. Yeah. Yeah. That's where, like, I don't know if you caught it in my eyes, but I, uh, was shocked to hear they were as bad as they were. [laughs] Kelly was like, "Really? We're live?"
38:35
'Cause I haven't exact- Yeah, it's May, so sorry, I haven't been tracking this day by day. Uh, but yeah, I, hey, I like our position of where we're at.
38:43
Me and Mick are gonna wing it over to London and jam with The Stones. Such a good way to say that. By the way, Rolling Stones actually not playing in London, uh, for those scoring at home.
38:51
All right, uh, let's review the, uh, the bets then, first of all in the baloncesto tonight. Yeah. Do you have anything? Um, okay. Tonight I did, uh, make a bet. Tail at your, uh, own will. Kyrie Irving. Oh, let's talk...
39:06
Can we talk about Kyrie for a sec? Yeah, we can. We can, Gil. What had happened? Uh, yeah. Yeah, yeah.
39:11
I mean, like, okay, at the beginning of the series you would b- you would've said, "Okay, he's, he's molded in well into the facilitator role. This is gonna work." Yes.
39:20
And at times it's looked like that, but- What a mature chapter of his career kind of thing. E- exactly. But now when you're staring at 2-2, going back to Oklahoma City, and now...
39:31
I mean, game four, we're all wondering what, where's Kyrie? And, and Luke, and Luke is not 100%. He's, he's dealing with seven different injuries. Yeah. Like, I understand he's still gonna be extremely ball dominant.
39:41
That's gonna happen. I, I, I find it hard to believe that one of these last couple games Kyrie Irving is going to go... Like, the Mavs are gonna go down without Kyrie Irving trying to put up a bunch of shots.
39:52
So I played 25 plus. You're getting almost two to one on that right now, which is kinda silly for just, you know, Kyrie Irving point props. So I played that small tonight. Nothing big.
40:01
If I did not have Mavericks f- I'll just be rooting on my Mavericks. I keep saying that, saying it before the series though, I thought there was a little value on the O- on the Thunder.
40:09
I think there's val- value almost game to game on the Thunder. I think if you're looking to bet the Thunder, bet it now. Um, I wouldn't be surprised at all if this gets out to five tonight.
40:17
The way we've seen Thunder money come in late these past couple games, uh, I'm s- I'm thinking it's going to hit five.
40:24
So, uh, that's what I would say in that one, and then I've got, I've got Celtics, uh, in five, so I just hope they take care of business.
40:30
By the way, as you were speaking, the Celtics line, like, people cannot stop betting the Celtics. Went from 15 and a half to 16, back to 15 and a half while you were speaking. So what was that?
40:39
Was it yesterday on the air where we were like, "Whoa, 15 and a half"? Yeah. So that came down a bit. It was like 14, 14 and a half this morning.
40:47
About 30 minutes ago, Donovan Mitchell got downgraded to doubtful, which I don't know if that should be that big of a surprise. But we went from 14 and a half back up to 15, 15 and a half in that game now.
40:58
Probably more notably, I don't know if everybody caught this, Kara Slauvert questionable for this game tonight too, so [laughs] Yeah, in addition.
41:05
I mean, I don't- The Celtics have had, I, and I know Samich says the poor Zingas is hurt, but the Celtics have caught every possible break. It's incredible. Yeah.
41:12
I, I, I mean, w- we've been saying all year, I mean, the East was a, a, but not nearly as strong as the West, but I mean, what? Br- I mean, br- even, even if the Knicks advance, you're talking...
41:23
But this is not the Knicks squad- No... some of us were excited about, and it's not, it's not fair to judge them like they were 'cause they're not the same team.
41:31
We will never know what a Butler heat team could've done- Sure... to the Celtics. Yeah, honest. They won one game without him.
41:36
Uh, and I, I have this, and there's no way I can prove this, but this Cavaliers team, I have a feeling they would've won at least another game, if not two.
41:44
Like, I think people were way underestimating just how much Donovan Mitchell could mess with the Celtics. There, there was a large chunk of the season. Yeah.
41:52
This is where I know a lot, lot of, a lot of people don't check in the NBA basically [laughs] till we hit the playoffs. I get it. Yeah.
41:58
There was a large chunk of the regular season where the Cleveland Cavaliers were a top, uh, they were a top five offensive and defensive team, and one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference. So repeat again.
42:08
So you're over Kyrie points? I'm over Kyrie p- points. That's all I played tonight. Um, I would lean Thunder's side, though. Uh, Cavs, Celtics, I, I don't know what to tell you. Yeah.
42:18
I mean, under nothing probably, but I wouldn't, I wouldn't be touching that. This is tomorrow night, but do you think the Nuggets and T-Wolves extends to seven? [sighs] I think the Nuggets take care of business.
42:29
I, I think J- what JBT said was right, which is You wanna say seven, but like the Nuggets are on some stuff right now. They're on, they're on, they're-- yeah. Yeah.
42:37
Where, where the Knicks were on something earlier- Yep... the Nuggets feel like that right now. And I, and, and I'll go, I'll go-- It's three games in a row. Three games in a row.
42:45
They're shooting over 50% from the field. Like, the shot making has just been incredible. And I'm not saying, like, it's, it's, it's Nikola Jokic, it's, it's, it's Jamal Mur- There are great players on this team.
42:56
So much like we talk about three-point shooting percentages and how those can be extremely, uh, volatile, and we, we see those come down or go up, it, uh, I, like, Nikola Jokic, what you saw last night was incredible.
43:08
Incredible. It's Nikola Jokic, though. Like, I'm not gonna put it past the guy to be able to put up those types of games. Um, I would love to see this go seven. I, I, I don't know what to think, though.
43:18
I did bet -- The only other thing I bet was I bet under immediately last night in Knicks-Pacers, uh, game six. Uh, the whole game six, game six, game seven, you're installed- What number did you get?
43:27
I, I betted 217 and a half. No, 217? 217 and a half. 216 right now. Opened 218 and a half. Yeah. So yeah, under money coming in quick. If you wanna get on that, I'd get, I'd get it on, like, on that quick.
43:39
Under -- And I would, I would lean with those guys on the, on the Knicks, but I'm not r- I'm, I, I still have a little Knicks series exposure, so I'm just gonna let that roll. I'm not running.
43:48
All right, long shots on in five minutes. That's right. Long shots coming up with- I gotta change into my clothes from yesterday- Gotcha... and run over to Circuit real quick. [laughs] He's about to do it.
43:55
Kelly, Wes, and Matt gonna do that. Uh, I'm on Taylor Fritz in tennis coming up a little later. Kelly and the guys will tell you all about their golf plays. Again, for Valhalla coming up here in five minutes.
44:05
And then tonight, don't forget, once again, our schedule special. Mm-hmm. Tonight, NFL schedule release day. Um, both V's in prime time, and of course, special edition of The Handle. Wow, Matt Brown doing double duty.
44:18
He's working a lot. Better be getting overtime. [laughs] Overtime. Uh, we're going to London, hang out with the Stones. Done all we could do. GoJoe and Goliker next. Kelly's gonna sprint. Go. Best bets.
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