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May 16, 2024
A Numbers Game | May 16 , 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 16 , 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. So all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN.
0:11
The sports betting network VSiN.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Fidlin. It's the Numbers Game. Bart Canada at the D.
0:21
Uh, still to come this hour, we are gonna talk to Jonathan Davis on the NHL playoffs. Looking forward to that.
0:27
Uh, we'll get, uh, Steve Fezzik's week one plays in the National Football League, and, uh, Nick Whalen standing by as well. Adam Burke as well later on. What are you nodding about? N- nothing. Nothing? Okay.
0:40
[laughs] Just curious. That, that's my nod of I'm talking to the crew right now, Gil. Yeah. Oh, I'm sorry. Please continue. [laughs] I'm sorry. I just, uh, I just, uh, bet Scottie Scheffler, by the way. Oh, you did?
0:48
Yeah. All right, cool. I bet Scottie Scheffler because- Are you act- Did you get a little longer number? Little bit. Not too much. Yeah, no, no, I expect. That, that's what I would expect. Yeah.
0:56
Um, because right now, again, at the PGA, Xander Schauffele, five under through nine. He's got the, uh, one stroke advantage, five under through nine. One sh- uh, one shot lead over Tony Finau. Let's go, Tony.
1:10
That's your boy right there. Got top tens on both those guys. Let's go.
1:12
All right, Finau- Not even really my boy, but he was that guy of, like, I'm like, "All the numbers say he should be good this week," but his putter as it is.
1:20
For, for how much we've talked about Tony Finau's putting before, it's, like, real bad right now. Yeah. Like, real bad. Uh, for those wondering where the crack man is, you know where the crack man is, Kelly? Any idea?
1:31
Um, I don't know. Arizona? New Jersey. He's, he's gone- He's gotta be in New Jersey. He left the state to go make bets on the NFL schedule release, because they're taking more money out of state- Good on him...
1:43
than they are here in Nevada. Good for you, crack man. Let's, uh- He'll be back next week. Well. [clears throat] Say, what's he bet? [laughs] I don't know. Maybe he wants to bet them first- Bet him, tell me...
1:50
[laughs] and then let us know. We, we have the Fezzik's coming up. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. He's at Roto Wire. He's Nick Whalen.
1:57
You can follow him on Twitter @Whalen, substitute the number one for the letter L. How you doing, Nick? Doing well, guys. Uh, just another great weekend in the sports calendar. We got some huge NBA this weekend.
2:10
Obviously, we got the PGA ongoing. Uh, I do identify, by the way, with, with Tony Finau as a horrendous, horrendous putter. [laughs] Uh, you could say the same thing about me every weekend a- as you can Tony Finau.
2:21
So I, I just wanna give some support to Tony. Uh, that was very, that was very modern day of you, too, that you identify as a, uh, poor putter. Nah, you kind of- Yeah... golfers are annoying.
2:28
Like, I'm the guy that's like, no, if it takes me less than five shots to get to the green, that's where I'm happy about. Oh, you're excited. The putting I don't care about.
2:36
How many times have you seen a, a pro golfer just be so upset with a shot of theirs and you're like, "If I could've done that, I would be so happy"? Right, [laughs] yeah.
2:43
Um- I w- I would love to be five under at any point in my life. [laughs] That's right. Before we get to, uh, your NBA thoughts, this is fun with, uh, the NFL schedule, is that the notion of survivor comes up as well.
2:54
You have actually given this some thought for week one. I have, man. I mean, I, I... First of all, I'm a sucker for, for the schedule release.
3:02
I know some people complain about the NBA, or excuse me, the NFL just, you know, monopolizing the sports calendar.
3:07
It's like, you know, we're in the midst of the NBA playoffs and all, all, everybody's talking about is the schedule release. I love it. I mean, we, we already know the teams everybody's playing.
3:14
Like, [laughs] there really shouldn't be any surprises here. And, and yet it, it is kind of like Christmas morning finding out when your team is going to be heading where.
3:22
Um, and, and yeah, y- you gotta, you know, start to get some action in, right? All the lines pop up right away over at the DK Sportsbook.
3:28
And yeah, whether you're in Circa Million, as I will be again this coming season, or if you're playing Circa Survivor, now's the time to, to start grinding that research, you know?
3:36
I, I do a confidence pool pick 'em league, you know, where you rank every game one through 16 each week. I'm already going through, you know, checking things out, doing some initial research.
3:44
I think we have a few decent options if you're playing Circa Survivor looking at week one. I think the most popular play, guys, is gonna be Cincinnati at home against New England.
3:51
That number is up to eight and a half now at DraftKings. That's on the rise even in the last 12 hours. I think that is by far going to be the most popular play.
4:00
If you wanna zag a little bit, you know, I think Seattle at home against what remains of the Denver Broncos could be an interesting play. I, I think there's a, a lot of positive momentum around Mike McDonald.
4:10
I, I have no idea what Denver's gonna be doing at quarterback. I think that's a team that will likely need, you know, a, a few weeks or even a couple of months to, to kind of hit its stride.
4:18
I also like the Niners at home against the Jets. I, I know this Jets team will be a lot better with Aaron Rodgers, but y- you're still kind of f- starting fresh with Rodgers. He's coming off the Achilles.
4:26
He really didn't get any reps with this team last season. I think that is a brutal, brutal spot for the Jets to have to go on the road to San Francisco in week one. And then the other one would be Tampa Bay.
4:36
Uh, I, I'm still kind of making up my mind. Do I think Tampa Bay could carry over what it did last season?
4:40
But I think they have a pretty soft landing in week one, uh, against the Commanders team that'll be starting a rookie quarterback. How dare you, first of all, on that one. How [laughs] dare you? How dare you?
4:51
[laughs] Um, I have not given it e- enough of a look yet. Uh, my instinct, though, is I don't wanna burn the Bengals week one. I do not want to do that. Yeah.
4:59
Well, you know what my, uh, first instinct was was that, uh, was, oh, I found a teaser leg already. [laughs] Bengals. Your, your, your obvious week one teaser, guys, is, uh- Oh, yeah...
5:08
it's Packers up, Packers up against the Eagles and, uh, Bengals down. There it is. I'm sure those numbers will still exist. It's your teaser of the week. The other, the other issue with Circa Survivor is
5:19
we have two Wednesday Christmas Day games. Wednesday. Let me repeat that. Yes. Wednesday. So you got the Chiefs at the Steelers and you got the Ravens at the Texans.
5:29
There's also a game the next day, Thursday, December 26, which is on Amazon. Kelly, get ready. Mm-hmm. Uh, s- that's the Seahawks at the Bears.
5:39
Now, one would assume, and you know what they say about assuming, it, uh, makes you regret what you thought initially, I believe is the statement. Mm-hmm.
5:47
One would assume that they will include all three of those games in the Christmas group. They better. They better, right? Yeah. Because if they don't, if they just [laughs] Nick said, "They better." Yeah.
5:58
[laughs] 'Cause if they, 'cause if they only keep it to the two Christmas games- Can I make an outlandish statement? You ready for an outlandish statement?
6:06
My buddy Tommy always goes, "Can I make an outlandish statement, Gil?" [laughs] Yes, please. He, he warns you in advance. I'm gonna do that right now. If it's only the two Christmas games,
6:15
I might consider not playing Survivor at all. How about that? Wow. Hmm. Because I think you do get to a- Wow... I, I think you do get to a point
6:25
where you don't wanna be involved, forget the money, you don't wanna be involved in something emotionally for that long and know that there's this two-game nonsense. Gamble. Oh, complete c- Yeah... nonsense.
6:38
Coin flip gamble. And remember, God knows something could happen and it get postponed for whatever reason, right? And then you're down to one l- we, we can't have that.
6:47
So literally it's to the point where if you, if you have it, it's fewer than three games. I wonder how many people would be like, "Eh, I don't know. I don't think I'm gonna do it." I said consider, by the way. Yeah.
6:59
Smart people down there. Don't worry. I heard that part, yeah. I might consider not playing. Uh, all right, NBA, Nick, let's get to it.
7:05
Um, first of all, any observation on the, uh, the Mavericks and the Thunder last night? I, I said earlier, this is a series I just cannot wrap my arms around at all.
7:15
Like, it's, it's, on paper, it's the second best- Mm-hmm... of the semifinal series. Um, but it's like the one where from a handicapping standpoint I have no idea- [laughs]... what I've been watching.
7:24
And so the Mavericks win it, and they win it handily last night. Yeah. They're headed back to Dallas to try to close out the Thunder in six. That is not until, uh, Saturday. The Mavs are favored by four.
7:35
Let's start there. What is your thought on this series? So I, I have been a Dallas bettor, guys, throughout this, this playoff run, and I had Mavs in six in the series.
7:45
Now, we, we have a chance to, to of course cash that on Saturday, but I'm with you, man. I, I've had a really tough grasp, uh, or a tough time getting a grasp on the series, specifically from a player prop perspective.
7:56
I, I really thought this would be a series where Kyrie Irving would be able to feast, there'd be all this attention paid to Luka Dončić, and instead, you know, OKC has, has adopted this strategy of throwing hard double teams at Kyrie Irving, especially over the last three games in the series.
8:11
And for the most part, you know, Kyrie has just kind of sat back and made the right basketball plays, right? I mean, he's got, what, 9, 11, and 12 points, I believe, over the last three games.
8:19
He's just not really attacking those double teams with as much aggression as you'd expect from a guy like him, who's comfortable, you know, making and, and taking tough shots.
8:27
And, you know, it, it's led to Dallas relying more on their role players, which in round one did not go well. They, they could not identify a consistent third option whatsoever. But the combination of P.J.
8:38
Washington, Dereck Jones Jr., you know, Tim Hardaway has, has reemerged, uh, you know, as a guy who they can depend on now off the bench.
8:45
It, it's a dicey strategy I think over the course of a series to, to essentially kind of be okay with Kyrie Irving just taking a big step back as a scorer.
8:53
And part of the reason this series was 2-2 going into last night, guys, was because Luka Dončić had not played like Luka.
8:58
But when you get a 31, 11 in 10 game with five threes from Luka Dončić like we finally saw last night, that makes that strategy a lot more difficult to execute if you're OKC. So I wonder if we see a pivot on Saturday.
9:09
Do they throw a different de- defensive strategy out there? Uh, is this an opportunity to unlock Kyrie Irving? But I, I would love to take Kyrie over 20 and a half points.
9:17
I mean, his, his points prop, guys, is down like a full five points from where it was at the start of the series.
9:22
But at, [laughs] at the same time, there's just been so much game to game variance that I feel like I need to back away. Yeah, Nick, I was the guy last night who did it.
9:29
I, I, I, I shot for Kyrie 25 plus, 'cause like you're saying, like they- Yeah... it's dropped so much. It's so tempting. But I... It, it might get unlocked after what Luka did last night.
9:38
I, watching him, when he's hitting the step back threes, that's what was front- Yeah... rimming for about two weeks. And- I know... now that those are going in, watch out.
9:47
What's the opposite of, of a Steph Curry beautiful three is the Luka, "Uh, I'm just gonna shotput this up there." [laughs] Oh, look, it went in. [laughs] Uh, tonight Nuggets T-Wolves, game six, back in Minnesota. Mm.
9:58
Minnesota trying to stave off elimination. They're favored by two and a half, 205 is the total. What do you got here? Guys, I'm back on Denver.
10:06
And, you know, I, myself, like everybody else, has kind of flip-flopped two or three times in this series, right?
10:12
I mean, when Denver goes down 0-2, you know, we start to write their obituary and, and start to coronate the Minnesota Timberwolves, and start to look ahead and say, "Man, may- maybe they could beat the Boston Celtics."
10:20
And now you fast-forward a week and we're right back to where we were at the start of the series where everyone's back on the Denver Nuggets.
10:26
I, I think Denver has a very good chance to close this series out tonight, even on the road. I have no idea if Mike Conley's going to be out there.
10:32
I think even if he does push through to play, he's probably not gonna be anywhere close to 100%.
10:37
I mean, a veteran like Mike Conley, who at this point is kind of running out of opportunities to make a run to the NBA finals, that guy's gotta be very injured to, to miss a game- Yeah... in this spot.
10:46
So I don't know that we see Conley out there tonight, and, and we saw how big that is for the Minnesota offense just not really having any other options outside of Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns.
10:55
So I'm on the Nuggets. In terms of props, I'm going with Anthony Edwards over 29 and a half points. You can get that at plus 100, and I know Denver's done a good job on him defensively over these last couple of games.
11:06
But even if you think Minnesota's losing tonight, it's hard to imagine Ant not going down swinging, right?
11:11
I don't think he's going to settle for, like, an 18-point night, uh, in a do or die back against the wall game six.
11:17
I don't know if we can depend on Karl-Anthony Towns to provide decent secondary options for the Timberwolves. So I think this is an Anthony Edwards spot, even if you think Minnesota goes down.
11:25
And I also like TCP over one and a half threes at plus 130. There you go. Very thorough. By the way, yes or no question, are the Pacers gonna force a game seven tomorrow night? I think they do.
11:35
I think they force a game seven and they lose in game seven. And then they lose in game seven. Nick, great talking to you. Um, thank you for the Survivor thoughts, week one. Hey, anytime guys. Thanks for having me.
11:44
@Whalen, that's a number one instead of the letter L for Nick. Jonathan Davis on the NHL next.
11:49
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12:44
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12:55
It's Gil Alexander, it's, uh, Kelly Bidlin. Kelly, uh, you wanna talk some hockey? Let's do it. Let's do that hockey. Who, who says that in that promo, by the way? What's that from? I have no idea. No idea?
13:05
You don't have no idea what I'm talking about? [laughs] I don't know what promo you're talking about. Oh, all right.
13:07
[laughs] Uh, what we ended up having here in the NHL is, and I don't know that we expected this to happen, but we have three out of the, uh, four conference semis going to a sixth game, and we have a fourth that is headed to a fifth game, knotted up at two apiece.
13:21
And to help us navigate through what has been a fascinating NHL playoffs is Jonathan Davis, everybody.
13:27
We're always thrilled, uh, that Jonathan, uh, Jonathan spent some time with us courtesy of the Progressive guest line. He's the host of Ice Cap on Sirius XM NHL, and host of Show Me the Money: Hockey Betting Podcast.
13:37
You can follow him on Twitter at westcoasthky. Uh, how you doing, Jonathan? Great to see you, man. I'm doing great. It is... Yeah, it's, it's a, uh, just a great night ahead in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
13:50
We have, uh, yeah, we've got another elimination game, and we've had three teams that have had chances to eliminate their, their opponent, and they're all... They're a combined O in what, four now- Yeah...
14:01
uh, in these elimination games. Yeah. They, the, it's, it's hockey, man, and it just, it, none of these have ended. And so we have, as we, as you talked about, we have one more chance at this tonight.
14:11
One of the two is a potential elimination game, and it begins with the Rangers and the Hurricanes, where the Rangers still are up three games to two now in the series, but Carolina is a minus 160 favorite in game six tonight.
14:23
We're showing minus 166. And now correct me if I'm wrong here, Jonathan, this is one of those where even when the Rangers were up three, they were up 3-0, right? Yep. And then 3-1. Now it's 3-2.
14:34
I mean, this has happened, unlike basketball where it's never happened, that teams come back from a three to nothing deficit. It has happened a few times in the NHL.
14:42
It felt like most people felt like, like the Hurricanes, even down three-nothing, had a legit shot at this. No question.
14:49
I mean, okay, so you always hear, you know, the fourth game is always the toughest to win, [laughs] and it's proving out so far in three of the four series.
14:57
This is a series that, you know, really did have a feel early on that it should have been going lo- it should have been going six games. I mean, Carolina deserved a better fate.
15:06
They had outplayed the Rangers in a couple of the early games and just kept falling one goal short. Uh, it, it's interesting.
15:13
You know, I, I was texting back and forth with Jeff Benson after, you know, before game five, and, you know, I was looking at the numbers and, you know, he had 86% bets and 93% money on the, on the H- on the Rangers in game number five, yet that line didn't move.
15:28
And I think it may have been somewhat to do with the liability that, that books already had on Carolina. We're seeing it again today.
15:34
I mean, the, the Rangers are only, are getting 34% bets, but just 17% of the money, and that line... or the Hurricanes are, and the line keeps jumping up a little towards Carolina. Um,
15:47
I, I'm not gonna play a side in this one, you know. Uh, guys, I, I'm looking at a, at a prop and, because for me, the Carolina Hurricanes have changed the way they've played the last couple of games.
15:55
They're, they're a team that's really ab- all about shot volume and not necessarily shot quality, and now they're going more for shot quality.
16:03
So Igor Shesterkin under 30 and a half saves is the way I'm approaching this game tonight. Igor Shesterkin under 30 and a half saves, the Rangers goaltender.
16:12
So rather than laying the minus 166, you're gonna play it with that derivative prop right there.
16:17
Uh, play the under saves on Shesterkin, okay, uh, as the Hurricanes look to force a game seven back in New York in that series.
16:24
Then we have the one series that's still knotted up at two games a piece, and this is out west, and this is, uh, to determine what will be the de facto Canadian representative, if you will, in the final four here.
16:34
Uh, two to two, um, and you have a play on an Edmonton Oiler here, specifically on Leon Draisaitl. What are you doing? Well, look, this has been one that I've been on since game one of, of the playoffs.
16:46
Leon Draisaitl over a point and a half, and I started out in game one of the LA series when it was plus 195, and here we are eight games later, and it's now [laughs] down to plus 106, and it actually closed at minus 115, uh, going into game number four.
17:03
But yeah, he's had two or more points in eight of the nine games. For me, you know, he is been the most valuable player in the playoffs to date.
17:12
I, I, I just can't shy away from this prop, and I'm getting plus money, so for me, this i- this is, you know, th- this is the, this is the safest bet.
17:20
From a value standpoint, the Vancouver Canucks have tremendous value at that, at, at plus money. So I can understand if someone wanted to play Vancouver.
17:28
I mean, look, they've got two of the next three games on their home ice. Um, I'm just not...
17:33
I, I, I'm just more comfortable with what's been the safest and the best play from, I think, throughout the Stanley Cup playoffs is Leon over one and a half points.
17:42
But if somebody came to you and say they wanna take an adjusted price on the, on the Canucks, you would be okay with that to win the series? I understa- sure. Yeah.
17:49
I mean, look, they've played well enough that they could, they could be up 3-1. I mean, there's no question. But, um, yeah, I'm just...
17:56
So the value is with Vancouver, but for me, again, yeah, like I say- How can you go away from a guy who just continues to dominate on the ice?
18:04
All right, so the two props today from Jonathan Davis, Igor Shesterkin under 30 and a half saves for the Rangers tonight, and then, uh, Leon Draisaitl of the Oilers over one and a half points in the Oilers-Canucks game five back in Vancouver.
18:16
Uh, we won't be able to talk to you before, uh, tomorrow's two game sixes, but I wanted to get your thoughts. Uh, Bruins staved off elimination.
18:25
They are back on their home ice for game six, trying to knot up their series against the Florida Panthers at three apiece. Uh, Florida still a favorite in that game, about minus 150.
18:34
And then the Stars and the Avalanche, the Avalanche staving off elimination last night with their five to three win over the Stars.
18:40
Stars still up three to two in that series, but we're back in Colorado, where the 'Lanche are a slight favorite in game six tomorrow. Any thoughts on either of those two? Well, some interesting numbers with both those.
18:50
So the Colorado Avalanche are 6 and 0 in a series when they trail three games to one in game number six, or game number five. They're s- they've won six straight games.
19:01
But they're 2 and 14 in game number six when they trail three, three games to two. So interesting numbers there. Look, Dallas is the better team, but that was a gutsy win by the Colorado Avalanche last night. Yeah.
19:14
They, they, they looked like a team, you know, especially after what happened to them, you know, in game number four, that I, I just didn't think they were gonna have it in them.
19:22
But, you know, look, Dallas' goaltender, Jake Oettinger, uh, came up short. He just, not one of his better games. He has to be better. Uh, you know, for me, the over is the play in this one. I, I'm, I'm, uh, I'm just...
19:34
I, I love the value. I, I just think that, you know, these two teams traditionally, I think it's now 10 of their last 13 games, regular season and playoffs, have gone over. So I'll, I'll play the over right now.
19:45
That, that's what I'm looking at. And in Boston and Florida, yeah, look, Boston's gonna get a boost from getting their captain Brad Marchand back. It looks like he will return after missing the last two games.
19:56
The, the Bruins are, are just like a lunch pail hockey team. They, they don't have the talent that Florida has, but they just keep gutting out victories.
20:04
Still, at the end of the day, for me, Florida's the much deeper team. They had a bit of a hiccup in, in, in game number five.
20:10
I think they, they, they win game number six, and I think, and I'm, for me, I would play Florida on the puck line. All right, so let me ask the basic question. Who's in the finals?
20:18
Who's in the Stanley Cup finals in your opinion, and who wins it? I think it's Dallas and Florida in the Stanley Cup Final.
20:27
And, oh, God, I'll, I'll go with Florida right now 'cause I think they've got the best goaltender between the two. In Bobrovsky we're talking about. Okay. In Bobrovsky.
20:36
In, in Bobrovsky we trust more than right now we trust Jake Oettinger. All right. And then here's my, here's my question for next year. Obviously, we don't know the numbers.
20:46
We don't have all of the betting markets up at all.
20:48
But give me a team that e- either they snuck into the postseason, maybe they didn't even make the playoffs at all, that you think your hunches will be undervalued in betting markets heading into next season. Oh, God.
21:02
Uh, a team that's gonna be undervalued in, in betting markets next season. Ah. In other words, they got the worst of it this year. Things didn't break their way. Yeah. No, no, no. I, I, I, I'm, I'm, I'm trying to think.
21:13
You know what? I'm gonna go with the Salt Lake Whatevers. Oh, wow. I think that I would play their, their point total over next season. The Utah Yetis. [laughs] That's what they're, that's what it's gonna be, Jonathan.
21:24
Uh, that's what... Yeah. Yeah, the Utah Yetis. Yeah, yeah. Yes. Matt, Matt Brown and I kicked around the list last week of what they should be called. I, I remember. I remember, yes. I like that.
21:32
But remember, we talked about, don't we wanna have the Utah Blizzard so they could face the Carolina Hurricanes? That's right. [laughs] That's what Jonathan wanted, yeah. [laughs] Utah- He wants storms colliding...
21:40
Utah Yetis is hot. [laughs] Yeah, that's hot. Yeah. That's good. I like it. Yeah. Yetis is hot. All right, Jonathan, we appreciate it. Thank you so much. Great talking to you. Always a pleasure, guys.
21:49
Have a great rest of your day. You too. Jonathan Davis, everybody.
21:51
Once again, uh, you can follow him on Twitter at westcoasthky, that's West Coast Hockey, host of the, uh, host of Ice Cap on SiriusXM NHL, host of Show Me the Money, the hockey betting podcast called Show Me the Money.
22:04
Check it out. Fan vote for the new name of, uh, of the Utah team. Utah Yetis, I like that. Yeah. And it is gonna be, it's gonna be Utah.
22:12
It won't be Salt Lake City, which that was the first question I had for Matt, because, you know- Right... the name kinda goes to, you know, goes with the, uh, together.
22:20
Right, because the yeti has been discovered in Utah. [laughs] No, but, but, like, Salt Lake City Yetis doesn't flow- No, I understand... as well as Utah Yetis.
22:29
Utah Yetis would still be better than the oxymoron that is the Utah Jazz. [laughs] Right, yes. Jumbo shrimp. There, there were a lot of names we had to question. We were like, "How, what does this have to do with Utah?"
22:39
And then we Google and we're like, "Oh." Guest host, Utah Jazz. Of course, a holdover from New Orleans, which did make sense. More NFL schedule next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:55
It is a numbers game. I'm Gil Alexander. Coming up, we're gonna talk NFL schedule, more NFL schedule, but first, here's our own Stormy Bonatony with your Moment of Zin.
23:05
This is your betting Moment of Zin, brought to you by Zyn nicotine pouches. Find your moment of zin at zyn.com. Stormy Bonatony here at VSiN, the sports betting network, talking a little coach of the year in the NFL.
23:17
Jim Harbaugh is back in the league and already leading the way on the odds board at eight to one.
23:21
The Chargers' new head man has turned around every team he's coached in short order, and oddsmakers expect that to be the case again in 2024.
23:28
Bears head coach Matt Eberflus is the second shortest shot at nine to one after landing two offensive studs in the top 10 of the draft, number one pick Caleb Williams, as well as wide receiver Rome Odunze.
23:38
Chicago won five of their last eight games to end the season, and are hoping the marked improvement on defense carries over to open the season.
23:44
Robert Saleh and DeMeco Ryans, who nearly won the award a year ago, both sit 11 to one. This has been your daily betting Moment of Zin. Learn more about Zyn's smoke-free nicotine patches at zyn.com.
23:54
Warning, this product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical. Zyn is intended for adult nicotine users over 21 years of age. Thank you, Stormy. Stormy, by the way, uh, gonna be on the show tomorrow.
24:03
Yes, she will UFL preview Yeah Heading down, uh, closing, g- getting close to the end of the season, I believe Remember the time, uh, we were coming on, uh, after Stormy over the one of the times they'd let us, uh, do a show from Circa, and I said, "Hey, Storms," and you were like, "Do you know her well enough to call her Storms?"
24:17
[laughs] And I'm like, "I do not." Do you remember that? I'd like to say I jokingly said that, but yeah. You did not jokingly say that. [laughs] Said it right in front of both of us. I'm like, "I do not."
24:27
I didn't know you two knew each other that well. [laughs] Uh, we get tweets @bettingthebook.
24:31
Mike Stacks, "I believe the Bruins will come back to win this series l- uh, like the Panthers did last year to them, series five to one in home dogs Friday. I will ride the Bruins train. Let's go."
24:43
Where you been at, Mikey Stacks? Like I said- Delray Beach native going against, uh, Flor- the Florida Panthers. Watch out By the way, shout out to JD Emmett- Yeah... from Alabama, who just stopped by. We love JD.
24:54
Great seeing him. Uh, Larry Fresh, "People questioning the more than a producer tag never met Kelly. The swinging arm walk is proof." Oh, you know about that man. Oh my God. Pronounced swinging arm on this kid.
25:04
I- you don't understand how, like- You can't walk next to him... you don't understand, like, how, like, self-conscious I am that you br- like, the, the fact that you brought that up.
25:12
[laughs] You know those things you wonder- You are welcome... you know those things, like, you wonder about yourself, like, "Do I do this weird?" Oh, yeah. Pronounced s- Like- You have a pronounced arm swing...
25:20
that's one of those things I've wondered about before. I- And then you just straight up called me out on it, and I'm like, "Well, clearly it's a thing I do then." It is a thing I do.
25:28
I was, I was worried that I would take incoming 'cause standing too close to you, I was like, "Whoa. Hey, hey." It's really the...
25:33
I, I know this is something I've complained about for years, but it is the, when you work in casinos in Las Vegas- Yeah... like, we are very much, I mean, especially Gil and I, right?
25:42
It's, hey, it's wake up, get ready for the show. You know, we're going in, and we're, we know exactly where we're going.
25:47
So we arrive at a casino, and it's I'm going from point A to point B, but I've got to traverse a lot of things between it, right? Excellent use of traverse. Thank you. Mm.
25:54
Uh, but what happens in Vegas, and I don't blame anybody, but you get a lot of people on vacation who are like, "Hey, look at the bright lights- [laughs] That's right...
26:01
and I'm gonna walk all slow and stop at escalators and things like that." And you're like, "Ugh." So you gotta spin move and get around them and all that stuff. Spin, swim moves.
26:09
Yeah, you gotta s- swim move th- through them. Yeah. Uh, this is from The Numbers Guys. Uh, "Gil, maybe, uh, get in now. Chef was 4 to 1 this morning, now up to 5 to 1." I did get in on him exactly 5 to 1. Yeah.
26:20
Uh, Auburnist, "I would bet on Kelly completing the running of the porta potties at the Preakness." [laughs] Good friend Shillionaire, "Mugatu at those odds has to be a must bet.
26:30
However, my only concern is can he turn left?" Zoolander reference. [laughs] On the show. Steven Vegas, "Counting London, the Jets have seven standalone games in the first 11 weeks.
26:40
Do you think the morning shows on ESPN might have something to talk about this season? So thankful for VSiN as a supreme alternative." Thank you, Steve. [laughs] We do. That, that should be our motto.
26:49
We promise we will not talk about the Jets incessantly every morning, uh, in that voice by the way. Greg Neresian, uh, "The only phrase better than a packed second hour would've been a Crack up next after the break."
27:02
Oh, thank you, Greg, and, and Crack appreciates that. But again, with the schedule release, he went to Jersey because he can get down more money there than he could in Nevada.
27:10
Because one day when we get sports betting here, man, when it is legalized in Nevada, oh, what a day that's gonna be. Uh, this is from Mardle, "Gil, the term you're looking for with Grant Hill is word salad.
27:21
Maybe word vomit or verbal diarrhea are too harsh." Word salad, one of my favorite phrases ever that I use on this show. It's not even the word salad so much as it is he must hear himself say words. Y- yeah.
27:34
It's like- It's, it's the weirdest thing... it's like s- it's j- like, like, it's kind of stating the obvious sometimes, but it's like, "Oh, it's my airtime. Let me talk." It's a lot of... Right.
27:43
It's a lot of I- Ian Eagle stops talking, and he goes, and let's say Oklahoma- It's my turn, so I have to say something... let's say OKC scores. He's like, "OKC trusting their teammates, getting to the rack."
27:54
[laughs] It's like, "Oh, thanks, Grant. Appreciate that." [laughs] Just like, that's the, that's what he does. He's just something like that. Yeah.
28:00
"Trusting their teammates, getting in the flow, getting into the rhythm, scoring a bucket." Uh, this is from Disc Golfer, "The backup beeping in the background is a nice touch today.
28:10
I can't watch the stream [laughs] and they're doing construction." Yeah, we gotta... We're fixing- Yeah... we're fixing security cameras or something. Listen, the D is always improving.
28:17
They're actually d- uh, they're doing a great job of trying to time out our breaks. It's just not- They are. It's, it's, yeah... they are really doing a, uh, it's a yeoman's effort sometimes. It really is.
28:25
It's just, you know, it's not going perfectly. [laughs] Uh, Scoreline didn't understand that I was being sarcastic about not understanding the assume thing. Yeah. Yeah. I t- I tweeted back at him.
28:34
Said you, you were being sarcastic. He actually texted. He's like, "When you assume, Gil, you make a..." I'm like, "No, I know." [laughs] I was just being cheeky about it. Michael Burns, oh, this is interesting.
28:41
Listen to this. "Mike Palm was on FTM this morning trumpeting the exact scenario you were just talking about with Survivor. He said..." I guess he's Palm, I think he means. Oh, okay.
28:51
"He said it would hurt entries if only two games used," on Christmas, I assume he means. "That was part of the Palm, Benson, and D. Stevens meeting. Benson and Palm thought it would hurt entries." Oh, look at that.
29:05
I mean, that, it's- I am not crazy. I, I'm telling you- Yeah... if there's only... The, the thing with Survivor is I love it so much, and I think I speak on behalf of so many people.
29:16
It's not about the money, it's about the journey of it. Mm-hmm. And if you know that you get that far, and there's only gonna be a two-game thing that you have to plan for, and you can be not... I'm not playing it. Yeah.
29:30
Like, I don't wanna go through that. I mean, I think that's a, I, I think it was a, that's a good initial thought by you. A- and tip of the cap, i- i- you know- Yes... to all the Circa guys- Yes...
29:38
for being aware of that already. I, I mean, I think I would have thought that would have taken a couple months, right?
29:43
Of like, you, you catch some incoming for some people about it maybe, and then you start to rethink about it. But good on them for already being aware of that. Absolutely good on them. Yeah.
29:52
Jason H11, "Arm swing to the level of George Jefferson?" No, no. George Jefferson is more of a strut thing. Kelly's is just... Kelly can't control the... Just look at this.
30:03
This is- I, I forget that- I forget it was part of my reasoning for walking. That was why I brought up the casinos walking through, is you, you gotta motor through sometimes.
30:10
And sometimes it j- it just helps the momentum to go, you know? Yeah, bro, those are weapons, man. Forrest Lehmann, "Tell Kelly to hit up Raquel Welch for walking hips." Oh, wow. [laughs] Raquel Welch.
30:18
All right, Steve Fezzik. You wanna know what Steve Fezzik bet week one in the National Football League? You wanna check out week one lines first? Well, let's do that. [laughs] Week one lines, everybody, in the NFL.
30:28
People are just like, "What did he bet on?" [laughs] What'd he bet on? We can roll through them, and then we can, uh, talk about, uh, what Steve bet. Most of these are short lines.
30:35
There's very few lines that are longer than four-ish or four and a half. Uh, Chiefs favored by three over the Ravens. That's on Thursday night.
30:42
The next day, Friday, in São Paulo, Eagles favored by one and a half over the Packers. D's up pack. What's that? D's up a pack. [laughs] Oh, you already got the teaser leg on the pack. This is my teaser leg.
30:53
[laughs] Uh, Giants are one-point favorites of the Vikings Sunday. Or hol- hosting the Vikings, pardon me. Giants are one-point favorites. Texans, one and a half point favorites on the road at the Colts.
31:01
That's interesting. Bengals, eight and a half. This is the biggest line. This is what, uh, Whalen was talking about. Bengals are eight and a half point favorites at home against the Pats.
31:09
Bears, four and a half at home against the Titans. By the way, I still feel like that Bears line we talked about the other day is the most curious of all the lines. Mm, yep.
31:17
Um, Saints, four and a half point favorites at the Panth- uh, hosting the Panthers, pardon me. Falcons are two and a half point favorites hosting the Steelers. These are all week one. Flip.
31:26
Um- I'm laying the two and a half. What's that? Laying the two and a half with the Falcons. Are you? Dolphins, three and a half hosting the Jag- Wires. Also the Jaguars.
31:35
Bills, seven-point favorites hosting the Cardinals. Oh, full touchdown. Seahawks, four and a half point favorites hosting the Broncos. Chargers, three hosting the Raiders.
31:43
Browns are one-point favorites hosting the Cowboys. Bucs, three and a half with the hook against the Commandears. How dare they? Lions, three-point favorite host- uh, three-point favorites hosting the Rams.
31:53
And the Niners, five and a half point favorites, no man's land, hosting the Jets on Monday night. Fezzik bet these. Are you ready? There could be some past post fines involved. The, um...
32:04
Can I ask one question real quick? Please. These totals, right? Yeah. Yes, sir. Hmm. These seem back to kind of more regular- Okay, so-... NFL totals... okay, let me get to the Fezzik thing.
32:13
There's some about totals here too. Ah. All right. Uh- Steven... Steven Fezzik, who'll be on the show tomorrow, he said he bet the Chargers big, minus two and a half versus the Raiders.
32:22
He also bet them a little at minus three. He bet Atlanta, minus two and a half versus Pittsburgh. Is that a past post right there? Is there a line up? No, no, we had two and a half. Okay. I said I like that one.
32:31
That's a bet for me too. He took the Giants plus one- But, you know, there's just no betting... versus Minnesota. He laid the six and the six and a half with Buffalo versus Arizona. Now it is seven.
32:39
He took the Denver/Seattle under 43 and a half, and 43. He took Detroit and laid the three versus the Rams.
32:46
He also took the under 49 and a half in the Jacksonville/Miami game, and the under 51 and a half in the Rams/Detroit game.
32:54
Um, he says, "Bold prediction, none of these numbers will be available ever again starting tomorrow." I mean, I,
33:01
I mean, think about how much we talked last year, last regular season, about where, how much totals had moved and the unders hitting. Listen to this.
33:10
So he says, "I think you will likely see a little movement on the unders in pretty much every game." Yep. "If you like unders, bet now. If you like overs, wait.
33:18
I know that's opposite what we typically do, but these totals are too high. Perhaps I'm underestimating the rules changes on the kickoff.
33:25
It looks like the markets feel that's going to increase totals, which certainly is the case. I just don't think it's going to be worth more than one point tops." Yeah. I, I, I- There you go...
33:35
per- perfectly said by Steve. I'm kind of just thinking about it now. All these feel a little high. Fezzik tomorrow. Adam Burke is next on a Numbers Game at VSIN, the Sports Betting Network.
33:50
A Numbers Game on VSIN, the Sports Betting Network. The NBA playoffs are heating up, and so is the action at DraftKings Sportsbook and official sports betting partner of the NBA.
33:59
New customers bet five bucks to get 150 in bonus bets instantly. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now and use code VSIN. That's V-S-I-N. Only on DraftKings. The crown is yours. Little PGA update at Valhalla.
34:14
What's in your head more? The, uh, pronounced arm swing or Valhalla? Um, I mean, I can't, I can't hear or read the word Valhalla this week- [laughs]... without having you, you singing it in my head like that.
34:26
You are quite- Valhalla. [laughs] Xander Schauffele extends the lead. He is seven under through 13. This dude- Mm-hmm... got a three-stroke lead over your, over your guy, Tony Finau, who's four under through eight,
34:41
and a four-stroke lead over a trio of golfers. That does include Jordan Spieth. You know what? I'm no longer liking my Keith Mitchell, uh, first round leader, uh, chances, even though he's not even teed off yet. Yeah.
34:53
Uh, Xander's putting the number way out there. Yeah. Going low. Uh, Xander, who has... He started on the back nine. So he has birdied n- it's a bogey-free round.
35:04
He birdied 11, 13, 15, 16, 18, and now rounding into the, the, uh, front nine, two and four. I mean, he is just destroying this course, as he does pre-Sundays. You know how it works.
35:21
Uh, Scottie Scheffler yet to tee off as well. That's coming up later. Again, my only tennis play today is on Danielle Collins, which brings us to, uh, one of our favorite guests. Always fun to have him on the show.
35:31
He comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. He is the glue that holds this whole operation together.
35:35
It's Adam Burke, everybody, @skatingtripods on Twitter, and also the, uh, co-host of the Double Play podcast, VSIN managing editor. How you doing, Adam? I'm good. Yeah, just finished up a new episode.
35:46
So for people that aren't subscribed, please do. And for people that are subscribed, you got one coming here soon. Double Play podcast, do you do it Monday through Friday, Adam? Monday and Thursday. Monday and Thursday.
35:58
Okay. Mondays and Thursdays. Yeah. Double Play podcast, baseball nirvana with Adam Burke. Uh, speaking of which, by the way, a little update on the Guardians. I lied to you, Adam. I took them again in May.
36:10
Apologize, just borrowing them for another month. Uh, they are eight and seven in the month of May. This was different from March, April because March, April, they started with the e- easy part of the schedule early.
36:21
This one ends easy, but I had them, you know, Kelly, how I did the series by series, I thought they would have to be like 10 and 5 right now headed into the nether regions of this May bet. Still a couple tough series.
36:36
They got Minnesota here for three, um, and then they have one more series before they get into the Colorados and the Angels and the Nationals of the world.
36:45
So a little bit behind the eight ball 'cause the Phillies and Yankees are never losing a, a baseball game. How do you feel about the Guardians thus far in the year beyond the bets though, Adam?
36:55
Well, I think you wish that they would've played a little bit better in Chicago- That was- Where they lost three out of four- That was the run... to the, to the lowly White Sox.
37:01
And, and also, I mean, Colorado's won seven in a row all of a sudden, so, you know, I mean, the Rockies still aren't any good, but, you know, who knows?
37:08
I mean, there's a lot going on in baseball right now where some of the bad teams are playing pretty well. Cleveland is a deeply, deeply flawed team.
37:15
Um, you know, I mean, I think Steven Vogt has pushed all the right buttons. The bullpen's been terrific, and the way that he's leveraged the bullpen has been really, really impressive.
37:24
But offensively, they continue to have lots of problems, and Kyle Manzardo has not come up and been kind of the elixir that they were hoping for. Um, but, you know, man, the team is still, you know, they battle.
37:34
They create opportunities. They're a very good base running team. They're a good defensive team as well. So they're able to overcome some of those offensive shortcomings.
37:42
The thing that worries me is if power around the big leagues does come back up, and it's been down at almost a historic level over the last 10 years, uh, so far this season, if teams start hitting more home runs, then Cleveland kind of reverts back into what we saw last year, where because they don't have power, they don't have contact quality, contact authority, it'll put them behind the eight ball offensively.
38:06
So we'll see how things go as the weather warms up, 'cause their pitching staff is a little bit terrifying as well right now on the starting side.
38:13
This is such a great point, and by the way, such a great advertisement for your Double Play podcast because that's the kind of thing that, that baseball bettors think about.
38:21
I said this about the Giants for years, that based on their ballpark, which besides Coors Field is the biggest pitcher's park there is in baseball, they kinda had to do their roster construction, you know, as a team that wasn't a home run hitting team.
38:36
And by the way, home run hitters don't wanna come play there to begin with. But yes, you're right.
38:40
If the run environment becomes, you know, explodes into being this, this much more home run friendly thing and balls are flying out of parks, they're behind the eight ball by definition almost to start with, right?
38:53
And so the, the way that the Guardians are is sort of similar to that. You're right. If it starts being a different kind of run environment, all the more difficult for a team like that to excel.
39:02
What has been your, uh, what-- As you look at the schedule today, what did you come up with? Any bets today? It's really tough today. I mean, there's only six games out there. You got the Dodgers is over a $3 favorite.
39:13
Houston's over a $2 favorite against Oakland. And, and I would've liked Oakland if it wasn't Joey Estes on the mound, 'cause Christian Javier is just not the same dude.
39:22
Um, you know, as I kinda look at it right now, and I'm trying to sort my way through it 'cause we had to record the pod this morning, but kinda leaning towards the Pirates a little bit, um, just because Jared Jones has been really good, hasn't allowed more than three runs in a start yet this season.
39:35
And Justin Steele, you know, third start back off the IL, got knocked around by the Pirates in, in Paul Skene's debut last weekend. But Steele's not generating much swing and miss right now.
39:44
So I don't think that the quality of the stuff is fully there. I think that's more of a, you know, kind of a coin flip type of game.
39:51
Uh, so I think getting the Pirates at, you know, a decent plus money price here is, is kind of attractive in that one. I was also looking a little bit at Reds Dodgers under.
40:00
I don't expect Cincinnati to do anything against Tyler Glasnow. Most teams don't. And Cincinnati is really, really bad offensively this season. Brent Suter opens. Nick Martinez will be the bulk guy.
40:11
I think that's kind of a more familiar, kinda comfortable role for him. So I'm kinda thinking under seven and a half a little bit in that Dodgers game.
40:18
Not sure if I'll fully pull the trigger, but I do think of the options here today, uh, Pirates at the plus money price, and again, I think it's kind of a toss-up, is probably my favorite look on the board.
40:30
Was there a season-long bet you made before the season started that you're particularly, uh, happy with right now? Is there one you're particularly not happy with?
40:41
Well, I mean, the A's are kinda slowing down a little bit, but I did play their season win total over.
40:45
I mean, you know, their season win total number had them losing 105 games, and I really didn't expect them to be as bad as that preseason market was suggesting.
40:54
And to this point, you know, for the most part, they've played pretty well. I mean, you know, I think that when they get Luis Medina back, he'll be another nice upgrade to that rotation.
41:02
The bullpen's been exceptional, although really scared they will trade Mason Miller for a gigantic return here sometime throughout the course of the season. So I do like that.
41:11
And I also played the Marlins season win total under.
41:13
So I mean, I'm not exactly counting that one yet, not spending that money yet, but, uh, the Marlins are a dumpster fire and, and that looks like it's going to continue.
41:21
Did you have any thoughts on the, uh, schedule release yesterday in the NFL, particularly as it relates to your brownies? Nothing really on the Browns.
41:29
I mean, I, you know, the one thing I, I thought about, and we've got some content up over at VSiN.com for you to check out, week one, uh, all the week by week odds.
41:37
Zach Cohen did, you know, some of the schedule situations and all of that.
41:41
One thing that really stood out to me, and, and I mean, we knew this based on the opponents, 'cause we knew who all these teams were going to play, we just didn't know exactly when- Right... they were going to play them.
41:51
I am pretty interested and may wind up with a ticket, kinda shop around town here a little bit, for Jared Goff to win MVP. I mean- Hmm... the guy's playing three games outside.
42:02
One of them is in November in Green Bay, the first week in November, so it shouldn't be awful. And then one of them is late in the year in San Francisco.
42:09
I mean, he's got the one bad weather game right before Christmas in Chicago that's a possibility, but Jared Goff's gonna play three games outside, and two of them, the weather should be just fine.
42:18
So I think that Goff and the Lions offense can really cook this year And Goff was one of these guys who we have many times over the years.
42:26
I remember specifically there was a, uh, there was a primetime game in Chicago where the temperature must have dipped to an arctic 31 degrees or something like that, Adam, and he looked so cold.
42:40
He was like, "I don't know how to deal with this kind of weather." So for him in particular, that's a big deal, right? Yeah, absolutely. And I mean, you know, again, I think this, this Lions offense is pretty loaded.
42:50
They got a lot of weapons around him.
42:52
And yeah, I mean, late in the year, you don't, you don't necessarily want a guy playing San Francisco's defense, but if you're gonna play a road game outside in December, San Francisco to Santa Clara is not a bad place to do it.
43:02
So- Yeah... one bad weather game, all these indoor games, uh, early bye week might be a bit of a struggle, but... And I think Jared Goff is, is definitely live to have a really big season there for Detroit.
43:13
Yeah, that sucks when you have the bye week, week five, and then you have three to four months of straight football to deal with. That is the one, uh, caveat to all of that.
43:22
Uh, Matt Brown, our own Matt Brown, bet Jared Goff last week, right? MVP. Yeah. [laughs] We were talking about it on the show. I was a little surprised to hear him. Uh, yeah, he's loaded up on it already, 40 to one.
43:31
40 to one. 40 to one on Jared Goff to win MVP. Adam, appreciate it, man. Uh, Visa managing editor, Adam Burke. Guardians will be returned to you intact on June 1st, sir. I appreciate it.
43:43
I don't know what state, what kind of shape they'll be in, but I appreciate that. [laughs] Okay. Thank you, Adam. Have a good one, guys.
43:49
Adam Burke, everybody, @skatingtripods, one of the great Twitter handles of all time. Yeah, that doesn't sound like Adam expects them to be intact maybe, huh? [laughs] When you give them back. Yeah, he, he did...
43:58
It's interesting, he says deeply flawed team, which is a, uh, you know, it's an honest assessment, but with him it's a little, you know, I think he's hard on his own team guys too.
44:08
I was gonna say, we always know those guys. Yeah. Adam's definitely the guy who's a little bit more, uh, cautious, pessimistic with his teams, I think, in bets. He's right about Stephen Vogt, though.
44:16
He's done a great job so far, first time manager. Uh, Tony Finau within two strokes early going at the PGA Championship at Valhalla. Schauffele seven under, Finau five under through nine. Schauffele through 13.
44:29
We've done all we can do. Gojo and Golic are next in Joy from Visa and the Sports Betting Network.
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