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May 1, 2026
A Numbers Game | May 1, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 1, 2026 | Hour 2
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46:16
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Transcript
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0:57
the sports betting network. The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
1:11
Hour number two of a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander, and that right there is a man ready for some horse racing.
1:23
Let's go. Kelly Bidlin has donned the hat. Derby Bidlin is here. Let's go. Where'd you get, where'd you get that hat? You look good in it. I got a couple sweet hats at home, okay?
1:30
I love- [laughs] I love Derby, Derby week 'cause I get to bust them out, okay? I forgot one, I forgot one. This one was just in my car. You look good. I was rocking this at the pool last week. Were, were you really?
1:39
[laughs] Swear to God I was, yeah. That's, uh, that m- may not be a good look- It looks good... but that looks good now as we talk horse racing. Let's bring in Chris Fallica, who was kind enough to join us yesterday.
1:48
Uh, he was on with us to talk Derby with Peter Fornatale. We'll get back to the Derby here momentarily. Chris, good morning to you. How are you? I'm, I'm good. I got my goggles ready to go.
1:57
I don't think I'm gonna need more than, more than one. Like, like, like, Jerry Bailey showed me how, how great it is, how you, they like stack them.
2:05
That way you pull off one at a time, uh, when, when you get, uh, kickback in your face. Yeah. But yeah, I, I am ready to go. But Gil, I wanted to just congratulate you on your, your NBA rant before. Thank you.
2:16
Uh, that was tremendous, and I wanna follow up on that. If I ever hear... Can we g- We, we've finally gotten to the point where people have finally g- gotten past the Clippers, and, and, and that's good.
2:29
I don't wanna hear about the Celtics or the Nuggets ever again. Wow. Wow. Like, just e- every, "Oh, they, they got Jokic. He's the best player in the..." They got nothing else. They're terrible.
2:40
The Celtics, all they do is chuck up threes. I don't wanna hear ever again about the Nuggets or the Celtics as serious title contenders.
2:48
I'm with you on the Celtics, even though I want them to get to the finals for my big ticket. I, so I'm rooting for them, but I am so with you just on the brand of basketball.
2:56
Forget the fact that Mazzulla can't adjust out of it, as n- he cannot impress upon these players to do anything different.
3:01
But just the brand of basketball has lasted so many years, to the point, and Kelly, I'll ask you on this, to the point
3:09
that if they never win another championship, do we look up back at the one that they did win and say, "Well, they just got this super easy path that one year, and so they, they were fortunate," but they're certainly not a team that we will remember in any way beyond that bit of fortune?
3:25
Yeah, I think there's a really good chance. Yeah. I think there's a really good chance. I, I, I think w- where the question comes in though is, I, I think you understand, and both, this applies to both teams, right?
3:33
Like, you can understand you win a championship and you get stuck in that way, and that's bo- both teams, right? I, we were talking about the Nuggets before you hopped on, Chris.
3:41
I'm like, "Yeah, it's taken one series, but I'm at the point of blow this whole roster up. You need to redesign this whole thing." Yeah, I, I...
3:48
See, I, I still li- I still like Denver and, because Jokic is such this amazing force, and it's p- and it's pretty to watch him play basketball with all the passing. Mm-hmm.
3:56
Uh, even though he didn't have a good game, Gobert was great. He deserves credit, you know, for, for, for his defense. I just view the Celtics...
4:03
I'm with you, Chris, on the Celtics, where it's just this one-dimensional thing. It's like, let's stop with them. Let's stop with them. And again, as a guy rooting for them.
4:12
And I heard- And I heard your conversation, uh, about, I know, uh, Dave Ross and Jensen Lewis were talking this morning about the, uh, Joel Embiid, whatever the number is to be NBA Finals MVP. And I can't quite see them
4:26
h- the Cel- the, uh, the Sixers winning, but I, I kind of dug around and was looking for, for bets for the show, and like, you could...
4:33
Like, in theory, like, why can't they go to Boston and win when- whenever that game is? Win game seven. Why, why can't they beat the other dregs from the Eastern Conference?
4:42
Like, you could find on, on DraftKings, I got 200 to one on Spurs over Sixers in the NBA final, 140 to one Thunder over Sixers in the NBA finals.
4:54
Like, th- those are, like, good pizza money bets if you're looking to take a shot on something, if you think Embiid can keep his body intact for another, about 10 games or so. Yeah. I find myself nodding.
5:05
I said the other day, I was like, when the Celtics were up three to one, [laughs] I c- and again, a guy with a Celtics ticket to make it to the finals against the Spurs.
5:12
I said, I go, "Boy, it's a shame we couldn't see Embiid [laughs] play the Celtics." Right. Now I'm regretting that comment. I'm like, "Oh, damn. I wish I hadn't said that."
5:19
And the only thing, I just wanna be fair, gentlemen, because we, I said this off air, we said this off air.
5:24
It, we could say the 76ers, they could win this g- they could win this game seven, get to the next round, and then Joel Embiid gets hurt in game three- Yeah... and we're gonna be like, "It's the same old 76ers.
5:35
Why would we ever have trusted this team?" And repeating what I said earlier, and the Celtics who win tomorrow by 30. Yeah. Which could easily happen. And I would not be shocked at all. Exactly.
5:42
Would not be shocked at all. All right. Before we get to, uh, today's horse races, 'cause Paul was just on, you have a Champions League play first in, in soccer? Yeah, yeah.
5:52
Yeah, I, I, I play, uh, Atlético Madrid plus 245 to advance, uh, in the tie against Arsenal. Uh, they were the better side on Wednesday in, in, in that, in that first leg.
6:03
Uh, I know it was At the Wanda Metropolitano, uh, which will always have a warm place in my heart, where, uh, Liverpool won the Champions League in 2019. But, uh, A- Atleti was a better side.
6:15
Uh, they, they were very unfortunate to not get a better result there. And Arsenal just looked non-threatening, uh, sluggish, especially in the second half.
6:25
And, and Paul alluded to the, the, the champion- the, uh, the Prem League race r- right there. Like, it's a bad stretch for Arsenal. Like, you've got that, you got that match on Wednes- that they played on Wednesday.
6:38
Now you have a match against Fulham, which you have to win, uh, because, uh, City is right there in the Prem. And, and then on Tuesday you gotta turn around and face Atleti, who...
6:49
Atleti hasn't, they've been out of Spain and out of the other c- uh, nothing has mattered domestically for them for a while, so they can kind of throw all their eggs, uh, in, in the basket.
6:58
And it's not like Arsenal's gonna come out and really threaten and attack and put up a bunch of goals.
7:03
I, I think Atleti's got a great chance to go into, uh, Arsenal at the Emirates and, and, and win and get a result and, and move on and advance. And I think plus 245 is a really good price.
7:14
Plus 245 in the Champions League game on Tuesday between Atletico Madrid, Atletico Madrid, plus 245 to advance versus Arsenal. That is Tuesday. Okay. Uh, let's talk about the horse races today, Friday- Mm-hmm...
7:29
at Churchill Downs, including, uh, the Kentucky Oaks race, [clears throat] pardon me, which is later in the day. But let's start with these in chronological order. What do you got?
7:38
Yeah, I, I think r- the third race of the day, which is not a stakes race, it's not a, uh, any special race, it's a little first level allowance race, and I really like the, the number 10 horse, Star Actress, in here.
7:49
Uh, she's four to one.
7:51
She's a three-year-old for Bill Mott, who, uh, she has faced a bunch of good horses, uh, in her previous races, including a horse, uh, named Zanie, who is, is among the contenders in the K- in the Kentucky Oaks.
8:04
So I like her quite a bit. She comes out of a, um, uh, the, the Ashland, Percy's Bar and, and Zanie, like I said, were both there. Her second race versus winner.
8:14
The, I think she figures really, really strongly here at a good price, and hopefully, uh, will get close to four to one on her.
8:21
Uh, the La Troienne later today, uh, later today as well, I really like the number nine horse, Fully Subscribed, who is seven to two.
8:29
Uh, it is a bet against Shred the Nar, who is the favorite in that race, who did not look very good in her first race of, off of a layoff. Did, didn't, uh, didn't fire at all.
8:41
Did she just need the race or is something wrong? And there's a little bit more speed side on into that race. So I think Fully Subscribed, uh, kind of sits the trip there and wins that race.
8:50
Uh, if you look at the Edgewood, uh, turf race for, uh, three-year-olds, uh, Just Aloof, the five horse, is eight to one. Not sure if we're gonna get eight to one because of the connections, uh, involved in this horse.
9:03
Kind of stuck down on the inside at Keeneland. Really, really couldn't, didn't have much lately. But I think off of that race, uh, Just Aloof is very eligible to, uh, to improve here.
9:14
And we get six to one or so, I'll, I'll be happy with that. But I'm really curious to see how the board treats, uh, Just Aloof.
9:20
And then the Kentucky Oaks, uh, kind of hit on it a little bit yesterday with, uh, with Peter. Uh, I do like the number five horse, Meaning. Uh, I, I think she is just sitting on a monster race.
9:31
Uh, I love her progression. I love her trainer, uh, Michael McCarthy, who wound up winning the, uh, the Preakness last year with, with Journalism.
9:38
Ran second, uh, in, in both the Belmont and, and the Kentucky Derby last year. Uh, I think she is a monster. I, I think she wins the Oaks.
9:48
I would probably be looking at boxing her in exacta, uh, w- with the one, Explorer, uh, the number four, Counting Stars, and then the, uh, then the number 10, Prom Queen.
10:00
Those are the, those are the four horses I feel, uh, best about there. But I, I'll definitely be, uh, betting Meaning, uh, w- with both, uh, both fists, uh, winning place.
10:10
Meaning to win, the five horse in today's Kentucky Oaks, uh, at eight to one.
10:15
Uh, I feel bad 'cause Peter Fornatale, who was kind enough to join us yesterday, is not here to do, to sort of get the point, counterpoint on this, so I feel like we're talking behind his back.
10:23
But he liked Zanie in the Kentucky Oaks. Why don't you? I, I, y- you know, reports out of, out of, uh... Oh. Oh. And we lost Chris. Oh. We'll try to, we'll try to reboot Chris as to why he is...
10:38
But anyway, he's not, he, Zanie is not involved in any of his Kentucky Oaks. Let's review these, by the way. I'm gonna guess the reports were negative. Uh, uh, well, we're, we're gonna find out. I can't wait to find out.
10:48
Uh, today, these are the races today at Churchill Downs. Race number three, uh, he's on the number 10 horse, Star Actress, to win at four to one.
10:54
La Troienne, that race, he's on the number nine horse, Fully Subscribed, to win at seven to two. Uh, Edgewood, he's on the number five horse, Just Aloof, to win at eight to one.
11:03
And then in the Oaks today, the Kentucky Oaks, the number five horse, Meaning to Win, at eight to one. Kelly, I am going to play some of these, if not all of these. All right, I like it.
11:14
I'm gonna, I'm gonna bet some horses today. There, there's a... It's, it's a great afternoon, an afternoon of just betting horse racing. It's fantastic. Yeah.
11:21
I don't know if I'm gonna get there today, but I will be tomorrow. That's for sure. Yeah. Did we say we have Chris back? Is that what, is that what I was told? Is it? We do. Chris, Chris Falica, why not Zanie?
11:28
Sorry, sorry about that. That's all right. I, I heard from the, uh, reports from the track that Zanie is not doing great. Uh, uh, she has...
11:36
We talked about, uh, the m- other Micro Folie, Todd Pletcher horse in the Derby, Renegade, having some feet problems.
11:42
Uh, supposedly she's got some kind of feet and soundness issues as well, and she's gonna be shot up with some kind of protective shoes, uh, a- as well. So I'll be, uh...
11:52
You can't bet them all, and in races like this on big days, you need to take a stand against certain horses, and, uh, I will be standing against Zanie. Where do you take all of this in? Where do you watch? Home.
12:04
I, I'll, I will be home. It's gonna be great. I will have, uh I'll have my laptop up. I will be firing away on, on my computer.
12:10
I'll be sitting, uh, sitting in the, uh, downstairs room on the big screen, just, uh, wa- watching all the races there. And, yeah, I, I don't have to worry about weather, I don't have to worry about- Yeah, no weather...
12:21
session lines. I don't have to worry about bathroom lines. I, I can do what I want, when I want. I- i- it'll be great.
12:28
It, it's great to be there with friends, but it's also great to be there and not have to worry about running low on money, and ATM fees, and betting lines. I just, I just got everything right in front of me.
12:38
All right, well he's not gonna start his day yet. He's coming back, Chris is.
12:41
We'll g- he'll give us all of his non-Derby picks for tomorrow, and then we'll get back to the Derby, 'cause he's got more to say about that, and some, how about some adjusted baseball season win totals as well thrown in.
12:51
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13:49
I'm doing the math. That's a year plus two additional months, Kelly, I believe. Mm-hmm. I believe that's correct.
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14:12
Use the promo code Pro for 14 months of your VSi- of your VSiN Pro discounted annual subscription at $199. Chris Fallica is kind enough to join us again, The Bear from Fox Sports.
14:22
You can follow him on Twitter at Chris Fallica, F-A-L-L-I-C-A. He's got the Bear Bets Podcast over there, uh, which he does in multiple forms.
14:31
Uh, where are we now with the Bear Bets, b- by the way, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Oh, he's got a hat now too. Look at this guy. Oh, yeah. I, I, I had a...
14:37
K- Kelly made me feel bad, and Peter made me feel bad from yesterday, so I gotta get this hat that really doesn't fit me very well on my, my thick 7 and 5/8 or 7 and 3/4 head. But, uh- [laughs]...
14:47
th- th- throw it on top of there. It feels great. What was that car- what was that cartoon character we saw as kids that this very, they had this kind of look to him? I th- I know- Yeah... who you're talking about. Yeah.
14:55
There's a- I don't know the guy's name. I don't know the name either. Eh. Someone will know.
14:58
Um, before we, before we launch back into horse racing, can you give us your, you have a few baseball adjusted season win totals? Yeah, I, I played, um, uh, the Royals under 77 and a half. I like that.
15:11
Uh, I think they are a bad, bad baseball team. Me too. And I'd, I'd, if they, if they go over, b- I'll, fine, congratulations. I, I'll take my hat off to them.
15:19
But, uh, th- everyone was so high on the Royals coming into the year. Oh, they're moving the fences in, and P- and Pasquino in Italy in World Baseball Classic, and Cagliani coming up, and Bobby Witt could be the MVP.
15:32
But, uh, it j- just had, Reagan's hasn't been great. Bubic hasn't been great. Uh, the team with a lot of holes. So under 77 and a half, uh, I took the Reds.
15:41
Now that it's no longer April, Bill, I, I, I can kind of root against the Reds. I like it. Thank you. [laughs] Uh, so I went under 84 and a half.
15:47
I think this is kind of a peak time, uh, number where you can kind of go under here. I think they're decent, uh, but again, some of the,
15:55
some of the, some of the, uh, the metrics there with the one run wins and things, you would think that that'll kind of even out a little bit as the season goes on. So under 84 and a half.
16:03
And, and the Phillies, I think, again, good time now off of a couple of wins. Manager got fired. Donny Baseball's the manager now.
16:10
Again, that doesn't solve the, the holes in their lineup, certainly the bottom of the lineup, the, the holes in their pitching staff. Uh, under 82 and a half for, uh, for the Phillies as well. All right.
16:21
Royals, Reds, Phillies, all the adjusted season win total unders that you see on the screen right there. All right, back to Churchill Downs. You gave us four plays today in four different races. Mm-hmm.
16:33
Let's talk about the non-Derby picks for tomorrow. Uh, yeah, I got three of them.
16:39
Uh, in the Turf Sprint, uh, there's a horse named Litigation, who I have actually given out on this show before, and won at a, at a, at a nice number for us, uh, earlier- Oh, that's right. Yeah... earlier in the year.
16:50
So I, I went back to Litigation, uh, three to one. Uh, again, I, I, I just think th- this horse, uh, is a great turf sprinter. Um, bad trip at Keeneland last time out, and I, I think she should better here.
17:04
Uh, the Distaff Turf Mile, the number four horse, Temptable, uh, is eight to one. Again, I don't know if we're gonna get eight to one on this horse, but, um,
17:15
the horse has been with Bill Mott since Del Mar coming over from Europe. Uh, so he's been here the, the entire summer. Um,
17:23
I don't know if that was the best company she kept over in Europe, but she's probably not gonna ha- uh, not gonna have to be great, uh, to beat this field here.
17:30
I, I think she could be very, very dangerous at or near the lead. And then the American Turf, I like the number seven, LP Land, who is eight to one. Uh, gotten better with distance.
17:41
A- and I think the number 10 horse, Vassy, is, uh, is live as well. So those are three for you for tomorrow.
17:47
And I wanna sneak in one that I, uh, that I didn't pass along to you, because I noticed it, uh, after I sent along. A- and again, this may not be available everywhere.
17:59
Uh, you might have to search for it, and I was able to find one, one PPH, uh, that had it. There is a, uh, a... Again, this is not normally something that I would play, but there was a prop up-...
18:13
Derby, the winning Derby horse's name will begin with the first letter A through H. Oh, wow. I think that that is the best bet that I have found in the Derby so far.
18:24
Because you get commandment, Commandment, you get Chief Wallaby, you get Emerging Market, you get Further Ado, and you get, uh, De- uh, Denon Bourbon, who a lot of people like the Japanese Invader.
18:34
Like, you get all of those, and basically the only way we, we, we... You can, you can lose.
18:39
You can lose if I'm wrong about Renegade a- and I don't think, and I don't think he wins, or if an outside bomber long shot, like a Patente or The Puma, who's a, a, massive underlay and So Happy was a massive underlay, one of those wins.
18:54
But if you give me Commandment, Chief Wallaby, Emerging Market, Further Ado, and the best Japanese horse that, that someone like, uh, uh, Paul Matias, who Crack gave out yesterday. Yeah. Like, that, that was -145.
19:07
I wi- I wish I was able to get more money down on that. But if you could find that somewhere, that, that, that's two fists to the window. Where, where... By the way, where did you find that? Do you remember?
19:17
I found that at, at, at one of, at one of the PPHs- Okay... that one of my buddies had access to. Okay. -145, that's a hell of a price on that. Yeah.
19:24
That's the first time we've ever given out a, uh, a partial alphabet play- [laughs] Yeah... in the Kentucky Derby.
19:29
'Cause I've been looking, I've been looking for head-to-heads, and I haven't seen any head-to-heads posted yet. Yeah. And I, I was, I saw Der- Kentucky Derby props. And you look at it, I'm like, "Oh, okay.
19:40
Well, they're, they're... No head-to-heads," but they had that. So. Interesting. Fe- Fezzik I know wants to talk about head-to-heads in the Derby. 'Cause I haven't seen a bunch of them either.
19:48
Yeah, neither have I, Chris. I haven't either. And I, I always like betting those. Uh, do you have a, do you have a l- short list of horses you're looking to specifically fade in those?
19:55
Oh, yeah, I'm looking to fade Renegade i- in any head-to-head that I can get.
19:59
Uh, a- and I think the good thing about that is, uh, being that he is one of the favorites in the race is y- you're gonna get him in head-to-heads against the Chief Wallabies, the Further Ados, the Emerging Markets, the Commandments, like the other favorite horses who I think are gonna beat him.
20:16
'Cause again, I, I don't think Renegade's coming in here in, in good form. The combination of, of his feet and, and the rally's gonna be up against it. So I, yeah, I'm gonna be looking to fade Renegade.
20:25
And I, I just wanna see who are some of the other, like, who are the some of the matchups with maybe So Happy as well is another horse that I'll probably be looking to fade. All right.
20:33
Before you go, let's talk about this. We sort of talked, we briefly touched on this off air after you were on yesterday, which is this notion of bettor versus handicapper as it relates to The Puma, among other horses.
20:45
What do, what do you have on this? Yeah, it, it's interesting because i- as in sports betting in general, we're always looking for closing line value. We're like trying to beat the closing number, and it's a little...
20:58
I- it applies somewhat in horse racing, but I'm not sure it's like the end all.
21:04
Like, if you're handicapping the race and you think a horse figures on paper, and in the Kentucky Derby, like The Puma is the perfect example for this. Uh, he fits on paper. He, he, he's, he's run well.
21:16
He's won the Tampa Bay Derby. He beat Further Ado. He almost won the Florida Derby. He's been great. He's gonna sit the trip. Like, he fits on paper.
21:25
However, these rumors about Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce either owning part of the horse now or gonna be there or c- making a wager on the horse, like, it's gonna bring the price down on this horse.
21:37
And I think the horse actually got bet down to like 6 to 1, uh, right now, like i- in the live betting from where he was. So like are you willing to take an underlaid price at like 6 to 1 on a horse that was 10 to 1?
21:50
Because, I mean, the horse doesn't know that it's getting bet. Like, the horse has gotta run its race. And if you think the horse, uh, fits on paper, do you take it?
21:57
And I think the way horse wagering and pa- parimutuel wagering goes, uh, like you can put the horse in an exacta. You can put the, you can bet the horse place and show. You can put the horse in a tri.
22:08
So like I, I think in, in, with the exotics that you can play, the, the fact that you're not necessarily getting the t- the 10 to 1 maybe not be, uh, the, the biggest deal.
22:18
A- and then in, in this weekend in general, like again, handicapper versus bettor, when it matches up and it lines up and you get the perfect storm of, again, I will use an example today, uh, in the Kentucky Oaks, uh, Lovely Gray.
22:31
Dave Portnoy, who I am friends with, who I, my colleague on Big Noon Kickoff, uh, I'm s- ecstatic that his horse is in the race for him. Enjoy the walk over. Enjoy the day.
22:41
He's done so much for horse racing in terms of an owner and a bettor. But his horse is overmatched in there. But he has such a massive social media following that all of his, uh, stoolies are gonna bet on this horse.
22:54
And the horse was 30 to 1 in the morning line. Got bet down to 6 to 1. Like the ho- you... Meaning, the horse that I gave out is a longer price right now- Yeah... than Lovely Gray is.
23:04
And when you get that public money on a horse that you don't wanna bet and really doesn't have a chance to win, and you get better prices on horses that factor in, that's, uh, that just makes a, a bettor like myself or Mike Somich or Marco and Ve- Like, like our eyes light up when we get- Yeah...
23:22
better prices than we ever could have expected on legit contenders. I do worry about that sometimes just be- you know, between us and the lamppost. I do worry about that Somich with, with the superfecta, right?
23:31
Like, and he's giving out a new one this year, that that's going to be s- enough of a swell, a ground swell of support that- Mm-hmm... the value is gonna be taken out of it in a parimutuel field, right?
23:41
Like, so there's, there is that quirk with this kind of betting as well. It's, it's a, it's an issue. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. There is. Okay. I'm sorry. But there's so much mon- there's so much money in the pool- Yeah...
23:52
on, on, on days like this. And this is a g- Like we're all, we could talk forever about, uh, uh, CRWs and z- uh, wagering c- algorithms. On weekends like this, the big stakes races, you don't notice it as much.
24:05
So this is about as fair of a shake, I think, as a bettor as we could get this weekend. I believe, uh, Marco D'Angelo used to say, "A lot of dumb money today," or, and tomorrow specifically. Yes. Chris, enjoy.
24:16
Thank you so much. Chris Felica, everybody, from Fox Sports. Drew Dincic and Stormy next. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:32
Back on A Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Smarter bets start here and last all year long with VSiN Pro for a limited time. Get our annual subscription, normally $240, for just $199.
24:45
I mentioned that, uh, moments ago. But the other thing, uh, that you should know about is this offer right here at Racetrack Television Network.
24:54
You can get five days free using promo code VSiN, live streaming and replays at RTN.TV. Figuring out where folks are watching their horse races. Mm-hmm.
25:04
Racetrack Television Network, RTN.TV, five days free, live streaming and replays, promo code VSiN. We get tweets beating the book. Always appreciate it.
25:13
JasonH11, Monday's headline, "Coach of the Year fired after losing in the first round to the Sixers." Well, I wouldn't go that far. I, I hope it's that, 'cause- That would be awesome... I have tickets to cash.
25:22
So hopefully, yeah, we can trash him all we want af- after he wins that award. Awesome just in a sports history way, not for the Mazzulla family, if you know what I mean. Yeah.
25:29
Tronsky, "Hey, uh, Gil, everyone jumping at center for the French Open needs to realize what he's trying to do here. Sunshine Double, Monte Carlo, Madrid?" Question mark. "Nearly there.
25:37
Then Rome, his home country, then seven matches and best of five at Roland Garros. That is a historical hill to climb. Minus 150? No, thanks." Well, it could have had him at minus 120 when we were talking.
25:47
I don't think you can have him at 150 anymore. No, I don't think so either. Uncle Bush, "Dearest Gilliam of the Alexanders, I hope this tweet finds you in good grace and favor.
25:55
Will you be bestowing upon us a pot of the mega variety regarding the circumstances and duels scheduled for battle for Roland Garros? Regards to your kingdom of ANG." Thank you, uh, Uncle Bush. That's very nice of you.
26:04
Yes. I, I would prefer all tweets sent in this way- That would be fantastic... going, going forward. That'd be nice, yeah. Yes. There will be a French Open pot, I believe is the answer to that question. Mm-hmm.
26:11
If I'm not mistaken. Uh, Rhodes, Rhodes knows. "Is 35 to 1 for Embiid Eastern Conference MVP a bet you would make also, or bet both?" I li- I prefer the NBA Finals one,
26:20
just 'cause it's a seven-day, a seven-game max stretch, and it's a way longer number. Right. So as long as we're doing this- Right, yeah, right... just go with the crazy number. We're getting cute, yeah. Yeah.
26:30
Let's get real cute. Roger Jones, "On a side note, we did find out yesterday something the Bear will not bet: Arabian horse race. Disgruntled," I love it. Hmm. That's something he will not bet.
26:38
And then Tony Hernandez, he didn't like Drew's hat. We're gonna find out what hat Drew is wearing, huh? Uh, in, in just a bit. We had a video this morning.
26:44
He sent the old Caddyshack clip where, uh, [laughs] Chevy Chase destroy- just murders Rodney Dangerfield's, uh, hat, and he goes, "But it looks good on you, though."
26:51
Ladies and gentlemen, I don't think she's wearing a hat, but she will wear her hat tonight in terms of her job at the Mammoth-Golden Knights Game 6 in Utah. She is in Salt Lake City right now.
27:03
It's our own Stormy Bonitoni, the co-host of Money Moves, of course, each and every Monday through Friday on this network. She comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Stormy, good morning. Good morning.
27:14
Yes, I was actually very curious. Kelly, when you took your hat off, did you have to re-comb the hair? I di- Was that part of the process?
27:21
I just did a little bit of that, you know, just kinda just fe- brushed the fingers- [laughs]... through it, and I was good to go. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. I got a...
27:26
The hat's coming back for Drew, so I, i- i- need to give the hair a breather. Yeah. Okay. It's big, it's big. I, yeah, I c- I'm kind of ashamed I don't have a hat today. So Gil, thank you, I appreciate it.
27:35
Yes, I'll wear the reporter hat today. We'll play that game. Yeah, that's right, the reporter hat. That's what I was going for. I couldn't quite get there. It was an almost smooth transition. Yeah. Yeah.
27:42
Um, and by the way, I said this to you off air, but thanks for responding to Kelly's email and ag- and accepting. I know you did it in person, but still a response. Thank you for coming on the show. We appreciate it.
27:52
Only emails for you, Stormy. I've, uh- That's our policy at a certain hour. Appreciate you guys h- having me. And Kelly, feel free to text me anytime. I like to think we're friends. Of course.
28:01
I didn't know that you thought that there was this professional line crossing- No, it-... by you texting me early in the morning. I just didn't wanna wake you up. I'm trying to respect people's sleep, okay?
28:10
The w- A- as someone who likes his, his sleep respected maybe a little too much earlier this week. The lady is of- [laughs] The lady seems offended, Kelly. [laughs] Yeah, I know. That's what I'm getting at.
28:18
Apparently, I'm sorry. She seems a... All right. Just thought, I just thought we were closer than that, Kelly. That's all. We are. [laughs] Wow. All right, Stormy.
28:23
[laughs] Just- Uh, this series, you, you have seen every second of this. Uh, you've been great, by the way, covering this as well. We all enjoy seeing you on this.
28:31
But the Golden Knights, um, up three to two in this best of seven series against the, against the Utah Mammoth. How? How has this happened? Like, this feels like this could be over.
28:41
Utah could've won this series already, and yet somehow, uh, the Golden Knights, with the dramatic comebacks, some more dramatic than others even, are up three to two in this series.
28:51
And tonight, game six, Utah staving, trying to stave off elimination. It's a basic coin flip. Uh, what about this series? How have you seen it so far, and how do you feel about tonight?
29:02
I feel like it's gonna be a coin flip once again tonight. Uh, Utah's gonna do everything they can to try to force another game seven. They've been in position, you said it, to win so many of these games.
29:13
And I'm sure by now everybody's seen that Opta Stats tweet that has gone out.
29:17
But the fact that Vegas has trailed in the third period in all five games this series, and the 28 other teams that have been in that same situation have either already lost their series through five games or been down in it, is such a testament to what Vegas has been able to do here coming out on top.
29:35
Uh, I mean, the game that I worked, game four here in Utah, where they get out to this three-nothing lead, they give up four unanswered, then they tie it, then they win in overtime, and then like they're down with a minute to go, and then here's Pa- Pavel Dorefyev, and they score and force overtime and win.
29:50
They've played essentially, with the overtimes in these last two games, almost an entire extra game in this series. [laughs] It's been fun. It's been back and forth. I haven't known what I was gonna get on a given night.
30:03
But I think, and I w- I'm curious if you guys agree, what has shown up for me in Vegas is the experience element and the killer instinct late in these games.
30:13
And I know Utah's head coach, Andre Tourigny, has tried to kind of bring down the narrative of youth verse experience a little bit, but in these last couple games, in the gotta have it moments, it feels like That Cup experience and the veteran nature of this group has gotten the better of Utah.
30:30
Well, you know what? It's so funny you bring that up, Stormy, 'cause I hate to say it, the valet where I live- Mm-hmm... John, John, not the Arsen fan. Arsen fan? No, Arsen fan- Yeah, I know who that... Okay. Yeah...
30:38
got fired. He crashed a couple cars. John, he, I, when I came home yesterday, he's a huge Golden Knights fan. It's the very thing he said to me. He goes, "Gil, you just gotta chalk it up to experience.
30:49
That experience came through." And I quest- as, as a guy who is not watching as much hockey as he is, 'cause he's like super hockey fan, I said, "Is that really a thing?
30:58
Like, do you really chalk it up to that, or is it just the bounce of the puck happened to go their way?" I guess you kinda have to say part of it's experience, but do you buy into that?
31:09
I think it's a little bit of a combo, because if you look at some of the metrics, right, like especially five on five, in so many areas Utah has outplayed Vegas. They just eye test look a lot faster.
31:21
But then an area like special teams, for example, where Vegas was complaining about how bad they were and then the bulk of the series, they have more short-handed goals now than Utah has power play goals.
31:32
Like, they're outscoring Utah on Utah's own man advantage.
31:35
Like, that to me shows killer instinct, coming up in the clutch late in games, in overtime, shows a comfort in being in that position before to be able to elevate in moments. So I think there's a layer to it.
31:50
Do I think that's the end all, be all and is hockey a crazy sport? Like, that's a different story. Yes, there are gonna be puck bounces.
31:57
They call it puck luck for a reason, but honestly, like, sometimes the team that deserves it or finds a way gets that extra bounce when they need it.
32:06
Winner of this series will play Anaheim, which got by Edmonton last night.
32:11
Um, do you feel, as someone who has watched the Golden Knights in all their iterations through the years, from Stanley Cup champ to a Stanley Cup finalist, all of these years, do you feel like this Golden Knights team, uh, if they're able to get through this series with the Mammoth, can get through Anaheim?
32:26
Do you feel like, and here's the real question, if they end up taking on Colorado, let's say all that goes well, in a Western Conference Final, do you feel like they can overcome in a best of seven there?
32:38
Uh, Vegas fans are gonna hate, especially as someone who is born and raised in the town and previously worked for the team.
32:44
I do, I would find it hard to believe that they could win in a Western Conference Final, um, against anybody who comes out of the Central, whether it's the Wild or the Colorado Avalanche in that, in that spot.
32:54
I do like their chances against Anaheim, however, if that ends up being the matchup. They, the Ducks were just such a surprise to me period, that they were able to show up.
33:05
I, like, I pre-series thought Edmonton was gonna win this thing, no problem. Like, I loved laying one and a half games in the series.
33:12
I thought you could probably even feel good about laying two and a half games and then, especially the way the Ducks closed out the regular season. They lost like eight of the last 10.
33:19
They were struggling all over the place, and then they just put up this type of a performance.
33:24
Vegas can play defense, which I know sounds rich coming off of back-to-back five, four overtime games, but they can defend, are better in net than he's shown in some of these recent moments, that I think that matchup with Anaheim is favorable and they would get out of that, but, but I don't see it.
33:42
Okay. Uh, don't mean to get you in trouble with, with Vegas, with everybody here in town. Yeah, thanks. I have to go talk to George- They're all, yeah... John Ferella in two hours, and you're making me look bad.
33:52
[laughs] He's gonna be like, "I heard- We won't tell... I heard you earlier on that show. You can't fool me, Stormy." Um, okay, and then real quick, how many teams do you think can actually win the Cup, and who are they?
34:02
Avalanche and who else? I think anyone who gets out of Tampa, Montreal, capable. Um, the Canes are good enough, but they just let me down year after year after year after year, so will they actually win? I don't know.
34:19
And whoever comes out of the Central, so I would say probably four. Okay. Um, last question, and this is just from me out of curiosity. You're doing this game. You do it for college football as well.
34:28
I'm just curious from a broadcast perspective, 'cause I don't know the answer. Are you, do you have scheduled break-ins to games, or do you alert them, "I got something to say"? Not the halftime stuff.
34:39
I'm talking about during the games themselves. During the game I alert them. The only set hit I have is in the first period, either the under 16 or under 14. They put me on camera to just be like, "Look, she's here.
34:52
She's a person. We'll put her on the TV." [laughs] And then after that it's all, like, I pitch stories throughout the game.
34:57
And how many of those can you get away with before they're like, "Stormy just wants to be on camera too much"? How many of those do you get? He's like, "Get out of here, Stormy." Yeah, it's, uh...
35:05
They're pretty generous, I'll say. [laughs] Okay. All right. We'll see. Well, we look forward to seeing you, not only, uh, there tonight, but all the time on Money Moves. Thank you, Stormy. Appreciate it.
35:16
Stormy Bonitatibus. Sorry about a little audio jankiness there. Okay, we've got most of it. Yeah. Drew Dincic from Churchill Downs next.
35:21
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. A numbers game, un partido de numeros.
35:39
Live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas, Gil Alexander. That's Kelly Binlin right there, everybody, back on with the hat. That's right. That means Drew is standing by. Let me read through some tweets.
35:48
These are all, I think every one of these is horse-related. Chris Heath, "Fixed number on Meaning is 5 1/2 to one. Will it close lower than that?" Oh, we, we wanted to ask Felika. Maybe we'll ask Drew the same.
35:58
We, we should just answer these things like we know for sure. Like you and I know. Yeah, obviously it's gonna end shorter than that, clearly.
36:03
[laughs] Chance Copperpot, "I rarely bet my team to do something positive, but I took your May bet, Gilly, on the, uh, Mariners 11 to one.
36:09
By the way, did you know pure maple syrup contains a unique polyphenol molecule named quebecol, created during the boiling process?" Did not know that. Hashtag 22 tweets about maple syrup.
36:18
Uh, JSA723, "The sheer talent watching the Feaster match was mesmerizing." Sinner still wins it in straight sets, though. Uh, BP Futures bet. "Gil, can you ask Felica who he likes in the Turf Classic? Thanks."
36:30
Well, he had his bets, the non-Derby bets. The Turf Classic was not among them, so I don't think he's betting the Turf Classic. Sorry I didn't get to that specifically. Maybe Drew has a bet on that.
36:38
Scott, "Breaking news, we just had a scratch in the Kentucky Derby." Is that true? I know Full Effort got scratched, but that wasn't just now. Is he just messing around? Eh.
36:45
And then Nemo, Ryan's Voice, "I've just finished all the Derby content on the internet. Turns out every horse can win, and all combos for other bets are viable. Good luck, everyone."
36:53
[laughs] I think a lot of people feel that way about the horses. Well, it is the, it is the, uh- Yeah... like Matt Pratt always brings this up with UFC, right?
37:00
When he was covering the UFC, it was like, "Hey, if you go talk to trainers and stuff about how their fighter's looking, guess what? No one's ever gonna say, 'Uh, it doesn't look good.'" That's right.
37:07
"Everybody looks great. They're in the best shape they've ever been in." Two more real quick. Felica, "Bet available at Coolbet according to Roger Jones."
37:13
And then Rhodes Nose says, "Can you give the horse again that crack friend suggested yesterday? Thanks, guys. Great show." Talking about Paul Matias. Uh, he gave out Dan and Bourbon.
37:23
Dan and Bourbon, the number seven horse. Mm-hmm. Without further ado, this is gonna be a surprise to me 'cause I haven't laid eyes on him yet either, so I can't wait to see this shot.
37:30
Drew Dinsick, our buddy, whale_capper, live from Churchill Downs now, courtesy of the Progressive guest line, joining us now on a numbers game. Look at this kid. Oh, yeah. Look at this guy. He's- Oh, look at that vest.
37:42
Look at this k- [laughs] oh, wow. Is, is, is that a fur vest? Yeah, that's a- No, no, no, no, no, that's not fur. [laughs] Oh, no, it looked like it. Yeah, it probably is, yeah.
37:50
No, I got, yeah, I got a wool coa- I got a wool coat on, 'cause it's like 40-something degrees out here. This is very unusual Derby weather. [laughs] Usually it's either pouring rain or sweltering hot.
37:58
This is the first time I've ever been here, and it's like a crisp, uh, s- expecting like a high of 58 today, so. Wow. Uh, awesome, awesome day for horse racing. Wow. Okay.
38:06
Drew, uh, you're the man on, you said boots on the ground. You h- now have boots on the ground. Yeah, buddy. What have, what have you learned? Hey, uh- And what are you betting?
38:13
Kelly, here's, let's, let's do a side bet, Kelly. Do you think Gil knows he made a Kentucky Derby pun in the open there? Oh. He said, "Without further ado." Oh! You know, you know who's- I was gonna say, I know Joe Drew.
38:25
[laughs] You know, you know who's... Yeah, he, yeah, you know whose superfecta is gonna be without further ado? Yeah. This guy. This guy.
38:30
Not inter- not playing, not playing further ado in this year's edition of the Kentucky Derby, despite the fact that he'll be wearing 18 and breaking from gate 16, which of course was your winning combination for Sovereignty last year.
38:41
I think Further Ado is due for a bounce. Uh, and I don't think he repeats what we saw from him at the Blue Grass. He's a toss for me. Well, well done, Drew. Especially 'cause he's getting bet.
38:49
He will go, he'll close short. Well done. Ah, that was- You're, you're already off to a fantastic start. [laughs] Th- this is like Larry coming back from vacation on Monday.
38:56
Would you put, would you put Dinsick out where he wants to be? [laughs] Just, man, the energy that you get. Wow. Next lifetime, I would like to come back as Drew Dinsick. Me too. Yeah. I love it. Me too.
39:05
Or Dr- or just Drew. Yeah, no, boots on, boots on the ground so far have been super valuable. Uh, I ran into, uh, Bill and Jordan last night at dinner. Uh, that's of course Bill Belichick.
39:13
Uh, uh, and, uh, you know, and, and d- uh, on the backside, um, in the morning workouts, uh, you know, th- we've been collecting a lot of data.
39:20
I've been snapping some photos, uh, and sending them to people like, uh, "Oh, boy, this horse doesn't look good. What's going on here? Oh, Todd Pletcher, he's on a, he's on a heated phone call."
39:28
Like, uh, what do we think's going on here? Um, but ultimately, like, uh, none of the, um, kind of backside information has been actionable in terms of, uh, like who to avoid, um, with the, I m- for the Derby, that is.
39:41
Uh, the, uh, the Oaks, there were a couple of clear, um, question marks for me. Um, m- notably the, uh, morning line favorite, uh, Zaney, uh, w- m- looks s- a little problematic.
39:52
I don't think she should be the f- should have been the favorite. She's not going to go off as the favorite.
39:56
Uh, and then Prom Queen, weirdly, like Brad Cox got her up at 5:30 this morning to do kind of a workout under the cloak of darkness as opposed to, uh, you know...
40:04
And why you would do that on Oaks day was also a little weird. She didn't work out, but she, you know, she was galloping around. It's kinda, kind of unusual to be doing that on the day of the race.
40:12
Uh, similarly, um, Commandment was the only Derby horse that was not, like in the, uh, parade this morning. Uh, they clear the track from 7:15 to 7:30 for Derby and Oaks horses only.
40:24
Um, and every other Derby runner was out s- either schooling or galloping just to kinda get their legs loose. Uh, didn't see Commandment.
40:32
Commandment also, Brad Cox brought him out in the cloak of darkness at 5:30 in the morning. So a little unusual- Hmm... for Commandment. Uh, a little unusual for Prom Queen.
40:40
A little surprising, we saw Zaney, uh, s- you know, s- stretching her legs today. So those are the horses with question marks from me on the backside.
40:48
Um, the big kind of 50/50 was, are the vets gonna allow Renegade to run? Uh, he of course was the Derby morning line favorite. It looks like he will run from what we're being told.
40:58
He, there was no official scratch of Renegade. Um, so he, unless the vets s- find something late and call him off, he's gonna be in the field. I still don't think he has much of a chance.
41:08
There's like a dozen reasons to be against Renegade, especially at this price.
41:11
Uh, and that makes, uh, betting the Derby pretty fun because I think you, you're gonna get a horse that's kind of in the 8 to s- 15 to 1 range come across the line, and it's gonna be a solid score.
41:20
So I don't think you have to put together kind of the perfect superfecta this year to be a, a pretty healthy winner in the Kentucky Derby.
41:26
All right, so tell us what you, at least now, at this moment, are betting or planning- Yeah... on betting today and tomorrow. Yeah, I'm pretty much all in on Chief Wallaby for the Derby.
41:36
I think he's the best horse in this field. Everything I've seen from him, boots on the ground, everything I've heard from the grooms, from the people who have, uh, you know, the clockers, if you will.
41:45
Um, they're all extremely impressed with how he looks. He's taken, pr- presumably taken a step forward from, uh, what was, uh, an, uh, an interesting Florida Derby.
41:54
Um, I think if you wanna watch one race, prep race, to kind of be prepared for what to expect in the Kentucky Derby, watch the Florida Derby. Those, that was the best class of horses coming into this field by margin.
42:06
Um, and they ran a close race. And then watch beyond just the bob at the finish, because that's getting all the attention. Commandment got the puma with the bob, uh, right at the line. Wallaby ran third.
42:17
But watch what happens after. Like l- look how much more race Wallaby had in him in that Florida Derby. And then tell yourself, "None of these horses have ever run a mile and a quarter."
42:28
You need a horse who wants the extra distance. Wallaby looks like that horse to me.
42:32
He's running with blinkers on, and a lot of people are kind of pointing to the equipment change is, is, is, is a bad omen for horses running in the Derby. Look at what happened to Palace Malice, blah, blah, blah.
42:42
Like, guess what, guys?
42:43
If, if Hall- you know, if, uh, if last year's Derby winning trainer, Bill Mott, and one of the most experienced trainers in the game, if he thinks Chief Waldbie will run his best race with blinkers on.
42:53
Guess what I think? I think Chief Waldbie will run his best race with blinkers on. [laughs] Yeah. So i- I, I really am not second guessing that decision, and I really think he's gonna kick ass tomorrow.
43:02
So he's on top for me. Um, I know you mentioned Danon Bourbon in the open. He's... There are two true wild cards in this field.
43:09
Danon Bourbon is one of them, because the data from him is l- so suspect, 'cause he's only run against, uh, you know, the Japanese kind of B, C tier horses.
43:17
So how he handles the trip, how he, you know, the, the trip as in the ship. Uh, and how he, uh, a f- you know, how he is, uh, able to compete against a, a really talented field is a question mark. He could run first.
43:29
He could run last. I honestly don't know what to do with him. Uh, the other kind of wild card is Potente, the 14. Um, not- Baffert's getting no attention in this race.
43:38
His horse, Potente, might go off at, like, 25 to 1, which is seemingly unheard of. Um, if you look at the bloodlines, Potente is an Into Mischief colt.
43:46
The Into Mischief is, like, the most productive sire by margin over the last six years in American thoroughbred racing. Um, he was a $2.4 million purchase.
43:56
He's only won $200,000 in his career to this point, so he's been a massive disappointment. Some might say Potente has not lived up to his potential.
44:03
[laughs] Um, but, uh, I don't know that he'll run a good race on Saturday, but I have kind of...
44:07
I, I've been trying to keep my ear to the ground to see if that is, uh, a potential getaway price that you might need to cover some of your, uh, exotics with, just because, like, you know, if he goes off at 25 to 1 and he is every bit as his pedigree says he is, he might, uh, he might ultimately be in the mix.
44:22
If you want, like, a little bit of commentary on the shape of the race, uh, there was a scratch today. It was Right to Party, number five. Uh, he is another deep closer.
44:30
So if you're keeping track, we have lost three deep closers so far in the three scratches of, uh, Silent Tactic, Right to Party, and Full Effort.
44:39
These were all horses that had the potential to clean up some mess and hit the board at a big price if you were playing a super. Um, they're all out. They're... And so we're kind of running out of closers here.
44:49
Um, and they've been replaced by Great White, who is an early speed horse who has no shot. Ochelli, who ran third in the Wood Memorial, and honestly should just be happy to be here. He might go off at, like, 99 to 1.
45:01
I wouldn't be surprised. He has, like, less than... He's never w- He's, he's never broken his maiden. I don't know how he's winning th- this, this race. [laughs] Good luck, buddy.
45:07
Um, and then, uh, the, uh, Robusta drew in with a scratch of Right to Party. He's another early speed horse. Um, and when you draw in, they put you in the outside gates, and they move everybody else in.
45:19
So Renegade is still stuck in the one. And all of this early speed is on the outside of Full Effort.
45:24
I think that's gonna cause a problem for him, as, as he's not gonna have a clean break, and he is gonna have four or five horses that are trying to get the lead coming from his inside and his outside.
45:33
So Further Ado, I think, is in a, a bad spot beyond just the likelihood of a bounce from him. Um, and, uh, you know, that kind of leads us back to our three Florida horses.
45:41
This could just be a rerun of the Florida Derby. I again think Waldbie is the best of that group.
45:46
I think he has, wants this distance the most, and I think he's gonna make us all, uh, super happy on, not so happy, but super happy, uh, on S- on S- on Saturday. Drew, you are the best. I like it. Yeah, man.
45:57
That was awesome. [laughs] Uh, five seconds. Do you have a... Are you betting on a horse in the Oaks? Yes. Oaks today? Uh, yeah.
46:03
I wanted, I wanted the nine horse, but apparently the word got out, and that's gotten Betchu obliterated, obliterated price. Meaning, the five right now, is drifting. Looking like eight to one for Meaning.
46:12
That's the pick in the Oaks. Meaning. Meaning. Thank you, Drew. Enjoy.
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