Search
Login
Sign Up
May 20, 2024
A Numbers Game | May 20, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 20, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
1×
Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, visa.com game plus iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. We appreciate each and every one of you, no matter how you take us in.
0:17
It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin, live from Bar Canada at the D. Still to come this hour, by the way, Samo bombing with Mike Samich. How about that? Yeah. He's always got plays in hockey and in basketball.
0:29
Uh, we'll hear from him coming up. Uh, Guardians update. Oh, yes, the May Guardians update. We had the Cleveland Guardians for best record in March and April. You know how that went. Oh, [laughs] God.
0:39
Sickest beat of my life. Uh, and then in May, it's another sort of fascinating thing, uh, which we'll get into. Um, by the way, real quick, uh, someone offered me a Pearl Jam ticket the other night, and I turned it down.
0:52
I said- Yes, you did... I said, "No, thank you." Now, our buddy JD from Alabama, who's a big listener to the show, and we love JD, he follows Pearl Jam around the globe- Mm-hmm... he told us, 'cause he loves Pearl Jam.
1:03
He thinks Pearl Jam is the greatest band that has ever lived. I, I don't want to put words in his mouth, but at least currently. I, uh, my ears don't appreciate them, let me just put it that way.
1:14
[laughs] So I, literally, when I was offered the ticket, I was like, "Let me see if I know any of these songs," and I recognized one, and I'm like, "Yeah, I'm not going to that." Yeah, I like Pearl Jam. I like Pearl Jam.
1:23
I've never understood the, th- there are a lot of people are like, "It's the greatest band ever," and I'm like, "Okay, I can't go that far." But I, I like Pearl Jam. I like Pearl Jam.
1:30
People love- A lot, a lot of great, uh, a lot of great entertainment in town this week. Uh, Brian Rogers just stopped by. He went to the Grateful Dead. He saw Pearl Jam, went to the Grateful Dead.
1:38
Um- That's your bag, baby. I'm, I mean, I'm going, I'm going to that at some point. What? U2 is too good in the Sphere. Like, I'm going- Oh, no, I-... I'm going to check that out...
1:46
I'll go to it just 'cause it's in the Sphere, yeah. Right. Like, you could put anything in the Sphere, I'll go see it. Uh, not only do we have golf's second major this past weekend, and I get it, you loved it.
1:55
You don't care. You don't care if they shoot 30 under. You just want to see good golf. You know? No, it was a great leaderboard. I thought it was- Yeah... great battle down the stretch.
2:02
Yeah, I- Um, we got tennis' second major coming up a week from, actually six days from today. By the way, congratulations to everybody who had Magda Linette overnight, plus 150.
2:12
Vsin.com/picks, all of our, uh, picks, no matter the sport, no matter the host, no matter the guests, at VSiN, they're all at vsin.com/picks, so we hit a plus 151 dog, uh, overnight in Strasbourg, Germany.
2:25
It's the only 500 tournaments of... It's the only 500 tournament of all these little clay tournaments that are happening the week before Roland Garros and the French Open, so we're gonna tread lightly.
2:34
By the way, amazing hard court season. Clay was fine until Rome. I give... Rome was, like, the worst tournament ever for, like, Rome just, like, stopped us in our tracks.
2:43
So we get a, uh, bounce back win with Linette last night. But the French Open begins, um, Sunday our time, so
2:52
we're gonna do our Beating the Book French Open podcast, Drew Dinsick and I, hopefully we'll get Dan Weston in there.
3:00
Um, we're gonna do it Thursday after a Numbers Game, so Thursday morning, because the draw will happen 2:00 PM Paris time on Thursday, so we will be able to do it post draw Thursday morning.
3:12
Drew and I have actually done the French Open pod while the draw was happening, uh, but I think it'll be done by this time.
3:17
We might not have quarter numbers by then, quite frankly, but we don't even know if we're gonna wait 24 hours if we would have the quarter numbers, so we're gonna do it Thursday.
3:25
Right now, here's the deal, and I wrote something up. We're doing a French Open betting guide at VSiN as well. Zach Cohen is behind it, and I, I did a little blurb for it as well. Um, the women's side is very clear.
3:38
Iga Świątek is the queen of clay, and if you go back in our lives and you think about what are the surest things in sports, Rafa Nadal on clay is probably a number one over everything. He won 14 French Opens.
3:54
He won his fourth right after his 22nd birthday. Iga's trying to win her fourth right after her 23rd birthday. She'll turn 23 in round three. Um, but she's essentially Rafa on the women's side.
4:08
She's going for her fourth French Open title, she's going for her fifth overall slam. She's going for her 22nd title overall. This is her surface, this is her court.
4:18
She's all the way up to minus 160 in some places, which again, I'm contractually obligated. I got her at minus 116. Remember four years ago, she was 33 to one.
4:28
At minus 160, I cannot mathematically recommend a bet like that. On the other hand, I will say this. If you went ahead and you bet it, no one's gonna laugh at you as the stupidest bettor in the world.
4:40
Does that make sense? Yeah. She's just that good, and honestly, like it, it, I- Wait, wait, what number did you get again? Minus 116. I, I thought it, I thought you'd even gotten better than that.
4:50
It feels like this has moved huge. Hugely. Yeah. Well, she won Madrid and she won Rome. Yeah. The last person to do that was Serena Williams. She's only the third player all time to do that. That's not bad company.
5:02
Yeah, she's pretty good. [laughs] As I, as I said back in the day, she'll be the greatest of all time when all is said and done, and she'll win... The first thing I said was she'll win double digit majors.
5:10
Well, she's about to be halfway to there if she wins this. Anyway, so the women's side is very straightforward, and again, if you're, if you just want raw data talk, 'cause I know how much raw data tennis talk- Yeah...
5:22
excites the audience. Let's go. [laughs] Hey, I give strokes gained approach data all the time. [laughs] What do we got, Gil? Oh, man. If, if you're looking for raw data in tennis, this is the place.
5:32
Um, Iga, last 12 months, last six months, in terms of her combined service and return points won on clay, 115, 113.9. Let me just put that in perspective for you. 100 is about average. 105, you're a great player.
5:49
If you go north of 110, you're like pantheon god kind of thing. Okay. Like a Djokovic, Nadal on clay, right? And that's what Iga is. So Aryna Sabalenka, who's like in the 104, 105 range-
6:05
In a world where Iga doesn't exist on clay, Irina Sabalenka's great, but she's the, she's the woman who, she's the lady that Iga just beat in both Madrid, and Madrid is really Sabalenka's court, uh, that speed.
6:16
She just beat her. Swiatek did in, uh, Swiatek did in Madrid and in Rome. And so Swiatek is the correct favorite. Now, can anything happen in any tournament? Sure. But is she, is she where she should be pricing-wise?
6:28
Absolutely she is. Um, and I'm talking Rafa on clay, Iga on clay, Bonds at baseball. Like, that's, these are the surest things in our lifetime. Scottie Scheffler in golf's getting there, by the way.
6:39
Tiger Woods should be on that list as well. Um, on the men's side, it's a complete free-for-all. And I don't mean the ATP Tour, because I don't think the ATP Tour will be a complete free-for-all.
6:47
This is a real flip, as I was mentioning in the betting guide, which is women's tennis, pre-Swiatek, Sabalenka, Rybakina, was really the side of tennis where most tournaments were a free-for-all, and the men had the big three, Djokovic, Federer, Nadal.
7:03
It's flipped at least in this moment, because going into this tournament, Rafa has made the trip to Paris, but he just lost in the fourth round to Jiri Lehecka in, uh, I believe it was Madrid or Rome.
7:18
I keep getting confused now. But he lost the fourth round. So he's made the trip to France. He's gonna, if there's no hiccup in training, he'll try. But really, what can we expect from the 14-time winner? Who knows?
7:29
Alcaraz had an arm injury. Uh, if I gave you the technical term without reading it, I would botch it. So here is what it is. Uh, the technical term for his injury is a muscle ed- uh, muscle edema in his pronator teres.
7:43
Sure, I think I said that right. Uh, it's an arm injury. I know what a muscle is. Sure. I, he'll be playing, we think, but we don't know.
7:51
Remember when Drew was on Tuesday, he was like, "A week from today, we'll see who's withdrawn." Yeah. Well, so far no one has.
7:57
Joker had the water bottle fall on his head, and then he lost to Alejandro Tabilo, 6-2, 6-3 in Rome. Most uneven performance of his recent days. So who knows what to get out of him. Zverev just won in Rome.
8:10
He's six to one. Sinner's got a hip problem like he's an old man. He's four to one. I don't trust that. Yeah, Zverev moved from nine to one to six to one over the weekend. Tsitsipas has been great on clay this year.
8:20
He's plus 750. And Casper Ruud, who's two-time runner-up these last two years of the French Open, he's 12 to 1. So bottom line is, I ended up anchoring Iga, not only straight on her side, but also to
8:33
Carlitos at plus 450, to Joker at five to one, and at Ruud, and with Ruud at 20 to 1. I don't trust Nadal, hate to say it, God that he is. I don't trust Sinner's hip.
8:47
I do think it is possible that both Carlitos and Djokovic show up, and it's business as usual. Okay. Uh, that's what I wanted to see, so with you. Yeah. Yeah.
8:56
'Cause, 'cause I actually think it's inter- like, as we sit here right now, I think tennis and golf this week are bo- or French Open and then golf this week are both kind of interesting from the standpoint of who's gonna be there, who's not.
9:09
So that's, that's what you think right now, is that both those guys will be there. Anybody else you think w- that will withdraw? Like- Listen, is it possible that-... should people be making bets right now?
9:17
Here's my point. Is it possible that they withdraw and these injuries are, like, and we find out Carlos can't go? Yeah. It's very possible. But what I'm saying is if they do, if he does show up,
9:28
as opposed to Nadal showing up or Sinner showing up, I have much more confidence in him overcoming his injury than I do Nadal's cumulative plus age, um, and the hip.
9:38
The hip on Sinner is the, that's the worst injury in tennis right now. Okay. 'Cause you're too young to have a hip injury. Hips are bad.
9:46
Hips, by the way, if you look at the, if you, tennis globally, like from a macro level, hip injuries are what plagues tennis players for the rest of their lives after their careers.
10:00
You can go through a myriad of tennis players who are dogged by hip injuries in their 30s and 40s and beyond. And for Sinner to have the seeds of this in his early 20s is very concerning.
10:14
Um, so, like, I mean, do you think, I mean, you have a piece of Casper Ruud in one of those parlays. Yeah. Like, is he, but is he someone, like, maybe people should run and grab a piece of right now? Yeah, I think so.
10:21
'Cause some of these guys could withdraw? I, I mean, I, I- Before the tournament... I wouldn't go crazy on him, but 20 to 1, absolutely. Yeah. Okay. Because Ruud loves this court. Again, runner-up the last two years. Um,
10:33
a- and again, it's one of these things where it's like, if Djokovic showed up and just destroyed everybody, or if Ca- or if Carlitos did the same thing, would it be in any way surprising? No, it would not be.
10:45
Nor would a withdrawal by Carlitos before the tournament starts, 'cause who knows really how serious the injury is? Um, but if they show up,
10:54
I have more faith in their ability, Alcaraz and Djokovic, in their ability to soar than I do Nadal or Sinner. And by the way, Casper Ruud, who's relatively injury-free by comparison, I trust him as well.
11:07
Now, by the way, you can't bet everybody. So who are my blind spots on this?
11:12
Sascha Zverev, I don't have any piece of him, again, coming off the Rome win, and Stefanos Tsitsipas, who also very formidable on clay, but I just can't get behind a bet on him to win a major here. So
11:24
narrowing it down to three people on the men's side, for me it w- it ends up being Carlitos, Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Casper Ruud, all tied in with the great Iga Swiatek, who is hitting on all cylinders. We'll come back.
11:40
Mike Somich, some NBA, some golf, all over the sports betting, sports betting landscape. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:47
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Numbers game brought to you by the good folks at Zyn nicotine pouches.
12:03
By the way, our website, Kelly, is banging. Say that about a website, that it's banging? Vsin.com? Mm, mm. Yeah, bang it. I don't think I'm overselling.
12:11
Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides. I'm looking right now at the, uh, front page. Zach Cohen, "Should you bet on Rafa Nadal to win the 2024 French Open?"
12:23
Also Zach on the, uh, schedule release in the NFL. Adam Burke talking hockey with the Panthers and the Rangers, Eastern Conference Finals set to begin tomorrow night.
12:31
Tyler Shoemaker's all over the WNBA beat, and JBT talking Mavs and T-Wolves. Everything you could possible w- possibly want. Even Jake Paul, Mike Tyson from Adam, all at vsin.com. Check it out. When, when is that fight?
12:46
Oh, you gotta ask me that one, eh? Like, I, I, sorry, man. Like, like, like, wait, like I feel like we, I feel like we first heard about it, like, a month ago, but now I feel like it's happening, like, soon. July 20th.
12:55
Okay, so it's still a ways off. July 20th. We get tweets that beat the book. This is from Rat City. [laughs] Titans_Insider. Remember that song, Rat City, Rep City? What was it called? Rat City?
13:08
Bro, I got no idea what you're talking about. Oh, back in the day. It's like 10 years ago. [laughs] Uh, "Pacers plus two and a half games at plus 115. Interesting," he says.
13:15
Yeah, that's the- Maybe you should go to vsin.com and check out JVT's write-up on that exact bet. Oh, is that right?
13:21
Nash, last name Nash, "Just bet this myself, so I'll share it to others who have it available before it moves. Jack Flaherty 100 to one at the super book," he says. Uh-oh. Uh-oh.
13:29
Judd O'Connor, "Xander built a, uh, stance in the fairway bunker on 18. That should be a penalty stroke. Signed the wrong scorecard, another penalty. Side note, I had Bryson." [laughs] That's a great tweet.
13:41
[laughs] Side note, I had Bryson. On a related note, I had a bet on another guy. Jesse Welch, "Thank God I d-..." By the way, he didn't sign a wrong, wrong card.
13:52
I mean, i- i- if, if he was gonna be taking a penalty th- or if he should have taken a penalty stroke there, then he would have signed a wrong card, so yeah. Right. Correct. Oh, I see. Yeah.
14:01
[laughs] It, uh, it snowballed is what you're saying. It, it would snowball from there, yes. Yes.
14:05
Uh, Jesse Welch, "Thank God I did great on my placement bets on the PGA Championship because I gave 50% back on Sunday just knowing Xander would gak it away." Yeah.
14:13
I, I mean, uh, look, I feel like both those tweets, like, yeah, I bet Bryson live yesterday. I, I was in that camp.
14:19
Like, I, don't be beating yourself up over, [laughs] over Xander Schauffele finally breaking through and winning one. Like, I, I don't think that you're...
14:27
I- it's not like you were making bad bets, uh, everybody out there, if you were thinking, "Oh, let me get on one of these other very talented golfers- Yeah... because Xander Schauffele never wins."
14:37
And then Rick Ollay, "Pearl Jam," oh, he's quoting me, he says, "Pearl Jam. Uh, no, I'm good, but let me know when H-Town tickets become available." [laughs] H-Town.
14:44
Oh, there are, if you guys could hear some of the Gil stories on, I mean, who was at the Palms, like, r- semi-recently that you were like, "I am not missing this"? Oh, I, I went to Babyface. That's the one.
14:55
Yeah, Ba- I went to, uh, no, Tony Toni, I went to Raphael Saadiq. Okay. Well, I was, I, I r- I especially remember Babyface. You wouldn't shut up about that for like two months. Oh, no. No. Yeah.
15:04
Gotta, gotta, can't shut up about that. [laughs] Had some good stuff over there at The Palms. What's the name of that, uh, theater over there? It's great. I don't know. I liked The Palms. Yeah.
15:11
Um, real quick before we move off golf. The Pearl. Uh, uh- The Pearl, Pearl... thank you, Matt Hicks. Thank you, Matt Hicks. That's right, Pearl. Um,
15:18
we do have to stop once more because we, because it took over our show Friday. You said it off air just now, and I think it needs repeating. They put Scottie Scheffler in an orange jumpsuit for a half an hour.
15:30
So what, I texted you on Friday. I couldn't stop thinking about that. It's just ridiculous. Like, I have no, like, I really, I have no problem with, I, I kind of don't have a problem with hap- what happened at the scene.
15:41
It's a chaotic scene, right? Like, uh, cops are always trying to, uh, you know, protect themselves, protect each other, figure stuff out, blame whoever you want to blame.
15:50
What I don't understand, though, is once they got back [laughs] to the police station, how there isn't, how there isn't more like, "All right, guys," like, someone at that point knew who this was, and, like, you really made him get in an or- you know, the orange jumpsuit getup, take a, take the picture, and, like, and then wh- I mean, what, for 26 minutes, and then you're like, "All right, Mr.
16:09
Scheffler, here's your clothes back. You can go." Like, what? [laughs] It's like, I, on Friday, what is that, it's like the tennis equivalent is, like,
16:17
Novak Djokovic being put in an orange jumpsuit outside of Roland Garros. Right, right. [laughs] And being like, "I'm sorry, Mr. Djokovic, but, uh, so, it was understanding." Like, "Hold up there. Change for us.
16:27
Okay, you can change back and go on. Go ahead." Nothing cracks me up more than the Kelly pool. [laughs] Kelly does that. Hold right there. It's very cartoon, comic book. Um- Uh, oh, wait, wait.
16:37
But [laughs] Scheffler, Scheffler this week. Yes. Oh, that's a great point. I have no idea what's going on.
16:43
We are v- It feels like everybody is very much under the assumption that these charges are gonna be dropped, because that's what we kind of heard. But to my knowledge, they haven't been yet. Right.
16:53
To my knowledge, he's supposed to be in court tomorrow. That's correct. To my knowledge, he's in the field for, uh, the Charles Schwab this week.
17:00
[laughs] So I, I don't, I haven't made a bet yet, but, like, I- It's like all those tennis injuries. Like, what do you do? The, and that's where I wanted to carry over that conversation. Yeah.
17:08
'Cause I think I'm gonna make a bet or two today, Gil, 'cause, I mean, g- I'm tr- I'm trying to put myself, self even just in that guy's head space. Why play this week? Like, you're the best player on the planet.
17:20
Everything you just went through, I mean, you, you said it. Like, I felt the same way on Saturday watching him, like, okay, this finally caught up to the guy. Yeah.
17:28
Like, what he did on Friday was incredible on the course. This caught up to him. How can you blame him for it catching up to him? He's got a newborn kid at home.
17:37
Man, it feels like it makes way too much sense to be like, "I'm taking a week off." Like, this is, this is too much, too much craziness for me. I mean, he's plus 260 to win this thing. This... [laughs] Plus 260.
17:47
This is insane. It's wild. Um, g- And, and again, I don't know anything. I don't know anything- Right... 'cause we haven't heard anything really. But, like, plus 260 is just insane no matter what.
17:58
Yeah, uh, it, it's wild. Uh, Guardians update real quick, because I don't wanna act like this is not happening, 'cause it is. 'Cause I'm locked into the Guardians every day, just like I was in March and April.
18:08
And as you know, for those who, uh, were not with us, a 65 to one shot was one out away from winning, and then we got a home run hit against us. It was ugly. Worst, sickest beat ever. So I ran it back in May.
18:21
Now, here's the difference between March, April, and the May bet. DraftKings did not have the May market, um, whereas they did the March, April.
18:30
So those who are on the Guardians in May is only Circa and William Hill Caesars. So it's about half of our tag-alongs, our tailing, uh, listeners are out on this because they didn't have it at DraftKings.
18:44
But, and by the way- Tagalongs... it wasn't 65. What'd you say? What was it? Tagalongs. Ta- tagalongs? Was that one of the Girl Scout cookies, right? Tagalongs. I think it's the peanut butter one.
18:51
What do you prefer in Girl Scout cookies, by the way? Tagalongs? Yeah, Tagalongs. Tagalongs. It's, it's, it's those ones, yeah. Um, 65 to one was what it was in March, April.
18:58
16 to one is what I got it out in, uh, got it out in May. And I do my path and what is actual. And the Guardians are only one game worse than what I had them projected at to this point.
19:10
They had a little White Sox problem earlier in the month. They went one and three against the worst team in baseball. Literally three of the White Sox 14 wins on the whole year was in that series against the Guardians.
19:20
But the Guardians have fought back. They're only one game worse than I thought they w- they would be at this point. They're 11 and seven in the month of May.
19:27
And you're like, "Well, 11 and seven, that doesn't sound that good."
19:29
Right, but remember the difference between March, April and May is that in May, the easy part of the schedule comes at the end, which is Angels, Rockies, Nationals.
19:39
Three against the Angels, three against the Rockies, one against the Nationals, at least on paper. So the Guardians are gonna win a whole bunch of ballgames between now and the end of the month, one would think.
19:48
Um, at 11 and seven, the next question is, okay, what are the other teams doing? And therein is the rub, ladies and gentlemen. There's the problem, because nobody is losing.
20:01
The Phillies, Yankees, and Dodgers refuse to lose baseball games.
20:06
So as on point as the Guardians projection was for May, the difference between this month and March, April, is that the teams at the top alongside are not cooperating.
20:17
The Phillies and Yankees are 14 and three in the month of May, and the Dodgers are 13 and four. By the way, their run differentials, Phillies plus 54, Yankees plus 40, Dodgers plus 44. Like, it's ridiculous.
20:29
They're just stomping opponents. And it doesn't matter what their predicament seems to be in any one of their games, they all end up winning. And part of the...
20:36
By the way, and people are like, "Well, they're not playing anybody either." Well, part of putting together a good season in Major League Baseball is beating the teams you're supposed to.
20:43
And the Phillies, Yankees, and Dodgers are not giving ground. So right now, with, what is that? It's, uh, 12 days left in the Major League, uh, excuse me, in May. Guardians have 10 games left.
20:53
A lot of teams you see on the far right column, if you're watching at vsin.com. Teams either have 11 or 10 games left this month.
21:00
They're behind the eight ball because even if they put together a run here, and again, 11 and seven, nothing wrong with that, with an easy schedule in front of them, they're gonna win a whole bunch of games.
21:09
But the Phillies, Yankees, and Dodgers gotta cooperate, and we don't have any control of that. So we shall see. Right now, even with the easy schedule in front of us, a little bit behind the eight ball.
21:21
Remember, it was the opposite in March, April, where the easy part was early, and then they just couldn't quite get to the finish line at the end. This, we'll see.
21:28
If they have a flourish at the end, see if they can make it close. But boy, oh boy, sometimes, uh, your part of it's going well, but, uh, what do you say about teams that just refuse to lose?
21:38
Are, are the Phillies really that much worse than the Dodgers and Braves? Nope. Okay. It's like the one- I, I- It's the one question I just- Well, by the way, the Braves are not part of this in May.
21:46
The Braves are like 500. Eh. They, they have kind of just become sort of mediocre for this stretch. But w- what are your thoughts on them? Because I mean- I still-...
21:54
it was only a couple weeks ago, right, where- I, I still think they're the best team in baseball. Okay. And I might be wrong about that, but I still think g- push comes to shove.
22:00
But this is, this is why when we get to a postseason, this is why when we talk about why did you bet the Giants to win the NL at f- you know, uh, and to win the World Series? Because if they get in- Right...
22:10
and by the way, they're two games under 500, somebody's gotta get in as a wildcard in the NL. The way that the postseason is structured, any of these teams can randomly win.
22:20
And if you're the best teams, like the Yankees, the Phillies, the Dodgers, the Braves,
22:25
that structure, best of threes or best of fives, if you're lucky enough to avoid the best of threes, it's just a recipe for disaster after a 162-game schedule where you're clearly the better teams.
22:37
So anyway, Guardians got a shot, puncher's chance, but the teams at the top have got to cooperate. Mike Somich on the other side. His hockey bets, his basketball bets. That's next.
22:46
Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. For a limited time only, we're offering our annual subscription at an unbeatable price.
22:58
Normally priced at $240, you can now grab your subscription for just $199. Sign up today, we'll also give you an extra two months for free.
23:05
That's 14 months of VSiN Pro access for less than 50 cents a day when you use promo code ANG.
23:10
With VSiN Pro, you'll gain instant access to our daily best bets with a leaderboard to see which VSiN expert has the hot hand, betting splits to show you where the money and bets are moving for every game, betting systems, premium analysis, 24/7 video access.
23:20
Visit vsin.com/subscribe today to claim your 14 months of VSiN Pro for only $199 with promo code ANG. A-N-G like A Numbers Game. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Let's go, Alexander. That's Kelly Bidlin.
23:35
We get tweets @BeatingTheBook. Always appreciate the feedback. Just be funny. We'll read them. Even if you crush us, we'll be funny about it. Uh, Jesse Welch, "Gilly saying raw data three times in one segment."
23:49
Yes, sir, we can mark that off the bingo card. Oh, I was making fun of the fact that we had raw data, that, that it would be like the most boring radio ever is what I was making fun of. Uh, Johnny Ringo, oh, Rack City
24:00
by, uh, Tyga. Oh. That was what I was thinking of. Oh, yeah, oh, now I know what you're talking about. That reference definitely paid long odds. Yes, thank you for that.
24:08
Mike Alvarez, uh, "I was up in Las Vegas this past weekend for the Pearl Jam concerts, and we'll see them back to back in LA this week. Pearl Jam fans" [laughs] He's, he's killing me.
24:18
"Pearl Jam fans are a great community and a 30-plus year journey for a lot of us. They are a great group of guys with great humanitarian causes." I'm sorry. I apologize.
24:28
Uh, Dan Cobalt, "Thank you, Gil, for your statements on the ridiculous national media coverage of the Pacers.
24:33
How about some karma to New York fans for chanting, uh, mean things to Reggie, let's say, and Josh Hart for pointing at it out to him. Show some respect. Have some class."
24:43
Phil Weiss is never happy, by the way, um, generally, but he's never ha- He- I love Phil Weiss, but Phil Weiss is the guy who he, he, he competes with himself for worst tweets ever. Remember when he said- [laughs]...
24:55
the Warriors, best thing to happen to basketball? Try worst thing. And you're like, "Uh, okay." Here's his latest one. He goes, "Here we go again with the greatest of all time.
25:04
PS, Serena, 23 Grand Slam singles titles, 14 doubles. Can we please temper the recency bias rhetoric for a couple of years on Iga?" Phil, I'm sorry, did she win 23 at the age of 22?
25:16
'Cause I'm curious where your comparison sort of loses any bearing whatsoever. Do better, Phil. Come on. [laughs] I'm laughing at both of y'all. She's, she's 22 years old.
25:28
It's like, it's like the, it's like the- Do you think Serena had 23 Slams at 22? Stop it... It's like the Anthony Edwards/Michael Jordan compar- Oh, stop it. It's like Anthony Edwards is great- God...
25:36
but, like, what- Do better with tweets... maybe let's, maybe let's give it a while. Yeah, the Warriors, worst thing that ever happened to basketball, sure. Michael Burns, "What the hell is wrong with Ronald Acuña?
25:44
Looks completely lost at times. Dropping fly balls, picked off bases. Looks completely unfocused." The Braves look u- unfocused this month, quite frankly, um, as we talked about.
25:55
Ladies and gentlemen, courtesy of the Progressive guest line, Samo bombing with Mike Somich, co-host of The Handle here at VSiN Weekends, 12 noon Eastern. How you doing, Mike? I am doing well. How are you doing, Gil?
26:08
I'm doing very well. Did you have... Let's start with horse racing. Did you have Seize the Grey at Pimlico? Oh, I did not. I had, I had someone going gate to wire. Unfortunately, it was not Seize the Grey.
26:22
I thought Imagination was gonna be able to clear the field, and, uh, interesting ride for Dettori.
26:26
Not sure he was good enough anyway, but, uh, would've liked to see him up front instead of four or five wide on that first turn sitting in second. Yeah. Uh, Belmont is gonna be at Saratoga, not at Belmont, so it is a...
26:39
It's not the long race. We've talked to you about this before. We're still obviously three weeks from that. Your thoughts on the Belmont Stakes, though? I think it's gonna be a phenomenal...
26:50
First off, a phenomenal re- weekend of racing. Everyone wants to win at Saratoga. It's one of those marquee tracks around the country. It's a boutique meet that's in the summer, and so you really point your horses there.
27:01
With the fact that we've got the Belmont Stakes Festival at Saratoga for two days, you're gonna get some phenomenal horses that end up that want to go and win a race, specifically a stakes race there.
27:10
And with the Belmont being a mile and a quarter this year instead of being a mile and a half, I expect you're gonna get a nice big field for the Belmont as well, because everyone's going to want to win the Belmont at Saratoga, and they won't have to do it at a mile and a half.
27:23
They won't have to push their horse that extra quarter of a mile further. So I think we're gonna have a phenomenal field, and it's gonna be a great two days of racing up in New York. Okay. We look forward to it.
27:31
We'll talk to you between now and then for sure, um, several times. Uh, we didn't get a chance necessarily to dive into the NFL schedule with you. What were your big reactions from that release? A couple of them.
27:43
So first one, uh, I love my golf 40 to 1 MVP ticket even more after we saw [laughs] the schedule come out. Uh, the, the early half of the schedule for Detroit is very beatable.
27:52
Don't love the early bye, but outside of that, I thought they drew perfectly. They-- we knew they were gonna have three outdoor games during the season. One of those, the Green Bay game, drew earlier in the season.
28:02
Doesn't look like that's gonna be a weather factor. The Bears game obviously will be an issue with weather, but the other one in San Francisco, it's later in the year.
28:09
That shouldn't be a weather issue, so you don't have to deal with outdoor golf too much this season. And then when we're talking about MVP, you've got to win a parlay, right? The team has to do well.
28:18
The player has to do well. And generally, you're gonna have to finish first or second in your conference.
28:23
Well, the other major competitors, Philadelphia, Dallas, and San Francisco, I didn't think ended up with a great schedule this year, and San Francisco specifically was interesting to me.
28:32
They played four different teams off a bye. Yeah. Those four teams are Kansas City, Dallas, Seattle. I mean, they're, they're good football teams that they have to take on off the bye.
28:41
I think that favors Detroit as well. Do you get the feeling that the NFL schedule makers have...
28:49
I- if they ever did, and I think they did once upon a time, but do you get the feeling that they have completely abandoned any care about that kind of stuff?
28:58
Like the Niners, this is the second year in a row where they get a really unfavorable rest disadvantage. It feels to me as if
29:07
the, the, the schedule makers have sort of cast those kinds of things aside, that they're not a huge priority.
29:13
They're more concerned about, "We got to put this team on prime time television as many times as possible, and that's the only thing we care about," and i- i- in, in sort of, you know, at the expense of, I should say, of some of those more equitable things.
29:29
I, I definitely think they are m- more concerned about having quality prime time games than they are overall rest for specific teams. And, and like, even if you look at the Jets, right?
29:38
The Jets are on seven of the first 11 weeks, so they've got to play, I think it's three games in 17 days to start the season, uh, with Aaron Rodgers coming off an Achilles injury.
29:46
Like, they, they clearly want to make sure they get th- they get Aaron Rodgers front and center as much as possible early in the season, 'cause they're like, "Hey, if he's not around later in the season, we want to make sure we got the most out of this Jets team early."
29:57
And so I s- I think you'll see clear concern from the NFL around making sure you have marquee players and marquee games and marquee time slots versus making sure that everyone gets equal rest.
30:08
I, I thought the byes were interesting as well with... We have all of these byes in week four and week five. We don't have any byes one of the middle weeks of the season.
30:15
Then you've got no byes in week 13, but you've got six of them in week 14. So you have a lot of teams that ended up with early byes or late byes, and that kind of feels like it's pushing that NFL narrative.
30:25
Well, how about we just go to 18 games and give you all two byes so that we can spread this out a little bit more evenly for you? So I thought this schedule was very interesting from an NFL perspective in that sense.
30:34
Yeah, it's, it's interesting because as we've gone through these schedules through the years, we've never had to really give it a, a two-pronged consideration, which is, okay, um-[coughs] One, we know the, the opponents, then we find out, like we did last week, what's the sequencing of those, and usually the conversation stop there.
30:52
But like now, stuff is happening that never did.
30:55
So you have multiple instances of teams, you just alluded to one of them, but we have multiple instances of teams who play three games in 10 days, and then we have just as many of teams playing four games in 17 days.
31:11
So there's, there's all kind- there's, there's a deeper dive that seems to be required now on these schedules than there ever was before. Oh, yeah.
31:20
I mean, you have to pay so much more attention to rest, so much more attention to travel, because these scenarios are more and more extreme now than with what they were.
31:27
I mean, I remember when I was growing up, maybe you get one Saturday game, then you get a bunch of games on Sunday and a, one Monday night game.
31:33
There were no Thursday games, there were no Friday games, there were no international games.
31:38
When you compile all of these different things, th- these different moving pieces that the NFL now has to schedule around, whether, whether it's being in Europe, whether it's being in Brazil, whether it's playing on, you know, the f- the Friday after, after Thanksgiving, it, it creates all of these different tweaks you have to make to the schedules, and it's going to naturally force you to ke- have some teams that have advantages from a rest perspective, from a travel perspective.
32:00
Some teams are gonna go on the road three games out of the first four, and some teams that are going to get specific stretches that are absolute gauntlets.
32:07
And I, I mean, I look at Jacksonville, where they have those two games in London, and then they come back and they've got just four really tough games before their bye.
32:15
You kind of wonder if they wish they had taken their bye right after- Yeah... the, the trip to London, so they didn't have to come back and take on Green Bay at Philly, Minnesota at Detroit.
32:24
I mean, that's, that's a tough stretch heading into your bye. So there, it's just, it makes it more and more complex to make this schedule when you've got these international games.
32:32
You've got all the Friday games, you've got the Thursday games, you're playing on Saturdays. It's not as easy as just playing every Sunday and Monday night.
32:38
And, and for those who are listening who are like, "Oh, but Gil, these things have always existed," yeah, they were always exceptions.
32:44
There was, you know, oh, this team plays this team twice in three weeks or, or this team [coughs] has that three in 10 or four in 17. Pardon me.
32:52
But now it's as if the schedule makers have just decided, "We couldn't care less about that stuff. We only care about the prime time games and, and putting that forward."
33:04
And by the way, all of this, the main point of all this is not only... Well, there's a couple main points. One, from a betting perspective, we have to be aware of all of these things.
33:11
It's not just enough to look at the sequencing now. But the other thing is all of this flies in the face of the ridiculous, you know, urge, quote-unquote, "for player safety." It's all counter to that, right?
33:25
[laughs] So that's a whole hypocrisy. We'll come back. Mike's got plays. He's got hockey plays, he's got a baseball play.
33:30
We'll also get his thoughts on the NBA playoffs and the meshugas that went down yesterday with those game seven road wins. It's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:40
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
We're so close to crowning an NBA champ, but with the action heating up on the court, it's even hotter at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA. If you're new to DraftKings, listen up.
34:02
New customers get a no-sweat bet up to 1,500 bucks. Just deposit at least five bucks to get a bonus bet back equal to your first bet if it doesn't hit. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now and use code VSIN.
34:14
The crown is yours. We get tweets of betting the book. Uh, this is from Chance Copperpot. "I'm sorry," he says. "I'm from Seattle and grew up with Pearl Jam, Nirvana, Soundgarden, et cetera." Oh, boy.
34:24
Chance could have a problem with this one. No, he says, "I can't stand Pearl Jam." Oh. "You couldn't pay me to see them at The Sphere. On the other hand, I see New Edition is performing at The Encore.
34:32
I'll go to that instead. Thank you very much," he said. How about that? Eh. Chilly Gambler. Suck up. Chance. [laughs] He's a suck-up. He's a suck-up. Thank you, Chance. Keep on sucking up. I love it.
34:43
He's not taking you for sushi. Chilly Gambler. [laughs] "Interesting your best friend Phil Weiss brings up the Iga versus Serena comparison. Both had six Slams by the time they turned 23.
34:54
Iga has a chance to outpace her now because Serena only won one at ages 23 and 24. Iga also well ahead in weeks at number one by this age." She didn't have six Slams. Everything you said is correct.
35:05
She has four Slams currently. She's going for her fifth right here at, at the French Open. Uh, but yeah, she's been number one way more than Serena had at this point.
35:12
So it's, again, it's a ridiculous, uh, counter by young Phil. Thank you, Chilly Gambler. Chilly Gambler also sucking up as well, Kelly. Both looking for a sushi place. [laughs] Everybody's scoring brownie points.
35:22
[laughs] Thank you, guys. Appreciate it. No, they're right is what they are. They're absolutely right. Mike Somich, ladies and gentlemen. He's, uh, often right. He joins us again courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
35:33
Mike, uh, on Twitter at somobomb18. Somobomb. [explosion] There it is. Uh, co-host of The Handle with, uh, Matt Brown. How's it, uh, doing, uh, with Matt Brown? You enjoy spending time with Matt every weekend? I do.
35:48
I do. We, uh, we actually had a blast this weekend. It's a lot of fun to be in studio, be able to go back and forth with him, and then we went golfing as well. Played TPC- Oh... Las Vegas on Saturday.
35:57
That was a, that was a good time as well. Played... It was a very nice course. The Handle, noon Saturday and Sunday right here at, uh, VSiN with, uh, both Somich and our buddy Matt Brown. Okay.
36:07
Uh, real quick because we just did the NBA promo, your thoughts about everything that happened yesterday. Pretty surprised, to be honest with you.
36:14
I thought the Pacers obviously shot the ball phenomenally well, but were able to really just wear down that Knicks team later in the series.
36:20
You could see that, you know, just, just the gas left in the tank was a problem for the Knicks as that went longer and longer.
36:25
And, and as soon as you saw OG wasn't really going to be able to play yesterday, felt like the Knicks were in a little bit of trouble. Hart was more injured than I expected.
36:32
Obviously, the Brunson injury kind of ended it, but they were down 20 at that point anyway, so I don't think that was a major factor in the game.
36:38
Uh, then the other game, I mean, Minnesota and, and the Nuggets was a, a shocker to me. You have the Nuggets up 15. It's the largest comeback in game seven history at halftime. Crazy.
36:46
And we saw this Timberwolves team just kind of mature in real time. I, I thought they were really impressive toward the second half. The defense was smothering later in that game.
36:54
You're forcing Jokic to be shooting threes. He was 0 for 7 to start out from three-point range. It's gonna be a fun series. I mean, I'm excited.
37:01
I'm happy that Dallas won, that they got through Oklahoma City, 'cause I think Oklahoma City would've had a real struggle with Minnesota or Denver, whoever had won that game, because of the size issues they have.
37:09
I think this, this Dallas-Minnesota series is going to be phenomenal basketball, just a lot of fun to watch. Any leans on either of the su- uh, two series? Um, well [laughs] I'll take Boston. [laughs] Shocker, right?
37:21
Um, I, I do think that- Wait a minute. Wait, wait, wait. You don't think the Pacers can win this and simultaneously get to the NBA Finals, and more importantly, Mike, take down [coughs] pardon me. Take down Gil.
37:32
Getting emotional. Yeah, I mean- You're five and a half under on total number of Celtics losses in the, uh, Eastern Conference playoffs. I know it's painful for you, Gil.
37:40
I'm gonna get to see that sushi spot after all here when we get to the NBA Finals here. Oh, he does not get the sushi. [laughs] I see how he slipped that in. He's like, "Sushi." I was like, "No, that wasn't sushi."
37:48
I'm pretty, I'm pretty sure that was the deal. We might have to go back- Oh... and check the tapes on this one here, right, right, Gil, uh, right, Kelly? I think that was the deal.
37:53
[laughs] I, I, I'd really like to side with you, Mike, but I don't think it was. [laughs] He's not giving up that spot for anybody. I think the Pacers- Oh, man... I, I honestly think the Pacers have a puncher's chance.
38:04
You do not. I think it's four-two, right? I, I think that, uh, the, the Celtics don't show up for one game. I think the Pacers legitimately win one game.
38:12
And I think we end up with that four-two, four-two finals series score. Uh, honestly, anyone has a puncher's chance against the Celtics after what we saw- Yeah... in the Game 2s of both of those series.
38:20
I, they just, they ha- they're lackadaisical at times. And I, I just, I don't, I don't think they're gonna win the title this year. To me, the winner of the West is your winner.
38:28
So if you're playing either team to win the West, I would rather play them to win the title 'cause of the odds are so significantly better. Dallas right now is sitting at 6-1, I believe it is, to win the NBA title.
38:37
I don't think that's a terrible number because I do think that they would have an advantage over the Celtics if we go that far. The Celtics team is just, they're not battle tested.
38:45
They consistently just make, uh, weird mental mistakes. They don't show up for certain games, certain parts of games.
38:51
So I, I lean toward whoever wins the West being able to win the title, and I think that Western Conference series is gonna be phenomenal. You can go over five and a half games.
38:59
That's minus 135 last I saw for over five and a half games in the Western Conference finals. I think that's a good bet. I think either Dallas or Minnesota, whoever you think getting out, is a good bet.
39:08
I thought it was interesting how the series price adjusted as well. We saw Dallas open plus 150 dog. That got up to plus 170, and then immediately the money started pouring in on Dallas.
39:18
Now we're sitting there at, at plus 145 for Dallas to win the series. So been interesting to follow that momentum as well that we've seen in the Western Conference finals.
39:25
Yeah, I said the, uh, T-Wolves Nuggets was the NBA Finals. I'll stick to that. I think the T-Wolves, uh, are out on, are gonna be on top in the end and will cause us all to rethink the Rudy Gobert trade.
39:35
Can I jump in real quick- [laughs]... on something we didn't bring up at the beginning of the show, but, uh, the, the Knicks Pacers game. I love tips.
39:43
What, what, what were they watching pregame to let OG Anunoby out on the court? Like, as soon as that game started, you're like, "This guy can barely move. What, what's going on here?" Yeah. That was bizarre.
39:53
Four and a half minutes he lasted. That was so weird to me. Yeah. Uh, okay. We- Go ahead, Mike. I'm sorry.
39:58
We talked about the props a lot, um, specifically for OG Anunoby and Josh Hart, and their points props, because OG Anunoby opened 12 and a half in that game, and it actually posted while we were on the handle.
40:08
So we were talking about the movement there. And you think about back to the NFL, those hamstring injuries, when you're trying to come back after a week in the NFL as a receiver- Gah...
40:17
you barely make it 30% of the game. I was like, "I, I could never play the overs on OG," 'cause it's what? A 50/50 shot he doesn't make it through the first quarter, and that's exactly what we saw.
40:26
And the other part of it is you go through everything to get ready. As soon as he sits on the bench, how is he gonna get back into the game? Right. Because he's gonna, he's gonna tighten up immediately. Right.
40:34
It's, it, it's, for me it was so hard to believe he was gonna play a full game. Hammies are pesky. I don't know if you know that, Kelly. Oh, so weird. As soon as they tip the ball, like this guy can't move.
40:43
Dallas Stars are waiting for the winner of the, uh, game seven clash between Edmonton and Vancouver tonight.
40:49
Any thoughts on that game seven, and do you have a bet in a creative way on the Dallas Stars, and specifically a certain goaltender? I, I've got quite a few Dallas Stars bets.
40:58
So I, I have them 11 to one when they were down two to one to, to the Las Vegas, uh, Golden Knights. I played Oettinger 14 to one to win Conn Smythe.
41:06
I just came back in and put in a big bet on Oettinger plus 425 to win the Conn Smythe again. Um, I... Look, if Dallas wins it, I think it's going to be Oettinger.
41:14
He was a big part of them getting through this last series against Colorado. He's played phenomenal throughout the playoffs.
41:19
He's going to get either Edmonton or Vancouver here, and I will be backing up the truck if it's Edmonton.
41:24
I would love, love Dallas to play Edmonton, because you're gonna get around a Dallas minus 120, minus 125 series price, and I think they should be closer to minus 170, minus 180 in that series with Edmonton.
41:35
If they end up with Vancouver, then I will be happy to play the game and a half with Dallas as well. But both of these set up well for Oettinger specifically.
41:42
If they're playing Vancouver, you're not gonna see very high scoring games. You're going to see a lot of five on five play. That's something Dallas does very well.
41:48
If you get Edmonton, and Dallas is able to stay out of the box, Edmonton just can't score five on five. It was a huge struggle. It has been a struggle against Vancouver. It's going to be just as big of a problem there.
41:58
And if that's the case, and you've got a Dallas team that's winning with defense and not winning, you know, the, the five to three, six to four games, Oettinger is going to be in the Cap Freund seat heading into the Stanley Cup finals to be able to win this if Dallas wins.
42:10
And right now Dallas is plus 205, and Oettinger is sitting at plus 425. Remember when we did the, uh, primetime action hockey awards, uh, trivia contest? Remember that? Calder Trophy, Hart Trophy.
42:20
Oh, I'd fail them all again. [laughs] Conn Smythe is the, uh, the MVP of the playoffs, if you will. What's, what's the, like, what's, uh, Mike, what's the top scoring defenseman one?
42:29
Like, that's always one that, that blows my mind. What's... It's not the top scoring defenseman. The Norris Trophy is what you're thinking of for best defenseman. Generally, they give it to the top scoring defenseman.
42:38
Oh. But you can win it with defense as well. Okay. Excellent question, Kelly Bikler. Well, apparently not. Well, well. [laughs] I tried. It's worth bringing up.
42:46
[laughs] Uh, and before we get out of here, uh, you do have a baseball play. Yeah, I'm gonna go under first five here, Tigers and Royals. Uh, wonderful AL Central match up here. Uh, you've got Olson taking on Wacha.
42:57
Wacha been pretty good, uh, from a statistical perspective this year, but Olson been sneaky good for Detroit. He's 0 and four, but he's got a 2.09 ERA.
43:05
Don't think either of these offense able to get it going early against these two pitchers. So we're going under four and a half first five Tigers and Royals today. All right.
43:12
So give me your NBA finals and your NHL finals are? I'm gonna go, I'm gonna go Dallas b- uh, Dallas Boston with Dallas winning, and Florida against Dallas with Dallas winning as well.
43:24
Give me both titles down in the big state of Texas out of the city of Dallas. Wow. A Dallas duo. A, a Kenny Ella for the, for Dallas in basketball and hockey. You know what? I'm gonna have to put a Stars bet in.
43:35
Uh, I was born in Dallas, at least around here. I'm just gonna become the obnoxious Dallas guy, okay? Oh, no. Let's go. Not that guy. I got Mavericks tickets already. Mike Somich everybody- Get him a cowboy hat.
43:45
[laughs]... @somo bomb 18 on the Twitter machine, and of course, co-host of The Handle with Matt Brown, noon on Saturday and Sunday Eastern here at the network. Thank you, Mike. Always a pleasure. Thank you, guys.
43:56
Have a good week. Mike Somich, everybody. We gotta run. Um, by the way, happy Victoria Day once again, 'cause J Khan brought it up. Happy Victoria Day, uh, in Canada. Stumped him yesterday on what that was.
44:07
It's like, "It's gotta be after Queen Victoria." After Queen Victoria, the mother of confederation. You knew that. So, uh, shout out to everybody in Canada. Enjoy your day. We've done all we can do.
44:17
If you're on the radio side, Gojo and Golik are next. If you're on the pictures side, well, we got a little Best Bets next at Visa, the sports betting network. Enjoy. [outro music]
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
