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May 20, 2025
A Numbers Game | May 20, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 20, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a numbers game at VSiN.
0:10
eSports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin. Still on Tush Push watch. We got nothing? Got nothing. All right.
0:22
Got nothing, although I might have a Jordan Hudson update. Oh. Bum, bum, bum. Oh. That's, that's even better. Yeah, I'll be checking in to more, more of that. [laughs] Oh, there's a tease.
0:31
That's what we call in the business a tease. Jordan Hudson, by the way, Bill Belichick's girlfriend, correct? Maybe. Oh. [laughs] Not for long.
0:40
[clears throat] I always say cut to a shot of Lombardi in his office being like, "I think I've got this covered. I've got this taken care of." We got tweets at Beating The Book.
0:48
Jamie Leyva, "They would spin you to the Belmont is my new favorite slang term. If you know, you know. LOL." Thank you. Jamie- Gil wants to live bet the Belmont. [laughs] Yes, I want a live...
0:58
Because actually, if you wanted a live bet journalism in the middle of the Preakness, they would have spun you to the Belmont. Three Jack H3131, "Pro tip of the day, always make a bet when the odds are plus big time.
1:08
Have a great day, gentlemen." Did I say plus big time on something? I don't know. I don't know. I didn't get that one either. Uh, the May ESPN+ offering French Open field versus Carlitos and Sinner plus 225.
1:21
Is that value? Oh, we'll ask Drew here momentarily. And then Bruce Do- uh, Dobigan, "Been away in Ireland the past two weeks.
1:27
Missed hearing you guys, but ask me anything about why avoiding Munster in the GAA hurling final could benefit Tipperary." My God, he could be making up words. [laughs] I would have no idea. For real.
1:38
[clears throat] I already forgot about the Ken Pom curling section. That's right. Oh, by the way, before we get to Drew here, Drew Dincic joining us to talk, uh, NBA, tennis, Preakness, all that stuff.
1:48
Uh, Jay Kahn about the Conn Smythe, 'cause we, [clears throat] pardon me, we ran into a wall. Uh, he believes that if you think Edmonton is gonna win the Stanley Cup Final, Draisaitl is the better bet than McDavid.
1:59
Draisaitl 11 to 1, as opposed to McDavid plus 350. He would bet Leon Draisaitl 11 to 1. Uh, he did like Jake Oettinger 14 to 1 if you're all about the stars.
2:08
But the one other thing he said off air that was interesting, if you have some Florida Panthers conviction like he does, he was saying that literally, the Panthers could go to anybody.
2:19
So he was saying feel free to take long shots on like Sam Bennett and Carter Ver- uh, Verhaeghe. Both are 75 to 1. So there you go, it's a little Conn Smythe follow-up.
2:31
So real quick, your, uh, your update is, uh, Katie Rosman over at The New York Times wrote an article this morning, I believe, on Bill Belichick and Jordan Hudson, uh, where she says that Jordan Hudson has told at least one person that she and Bill Belichick are engaged to be married.
2:47
Oh, my God. That's not how I thought this was going. Yeah. I thought you were still gonna break up. Went the other way, bro. Went the other way on you. Oh, my God. Drew Dincic joins us now.
2:56
What a bet, what, what better way to segue to Dincic time. Drew Dincic, courtesy of Progressive Gasline. [laughs] Whale_capper. Uh, it's like we're doing TMZ in the morning here. Did you hear that? Oh, my God.
3:07
What's happening? I, I mean, it just warms your heart, you know? Yeah. Uh, so it was a true- I thought that would be your spin... true, true love. True love. Drew's romantic. True love. He appreciates things like this.
3:18
[laughs] She's, she's just attracted to him. Nothing transactional at all about that relationship. No. It's pure true love. He's a good-looking guy. Just attracted to him. [laughs] That's all it is.
3:29
Um, let me just, so let's follow up on a couple of these tweets. One, I was just talking about the Preakness and what an unbelievable run that was for journalism. Mm. And I was just- Yeah...
3:37
I was just, you know, riffing about how imagine if there was like live in-horse race odds, you know?
3:43
And like what would journalism in that scrum of horses being banged around, what would h- what would that horse's number have been right at that moment? It would've been plus... You know, oh, plus big time.
3:54
That's when I said plus big time. Mm. [laughs] Um, [laughs] there it is. I said it again. [laughs] Yeah, I knew- I knew... I was thinking like plus big time, yeah. Yeah.
4:01
I knew if I talked long enough I would run into it again.
4:04
[laughs] Um, that was, that was, I mean, uh, you've seen more horse races than, than we have, Kelly and I combined, but that was pretty exciting no matter who you are, I would imagine. Oh, of course, yeah.
4:14
I, uh, I, yeah, never seen anything like that.
4:17
And yeah, nine, 99 out of 100 times when a horse gets squashed like that, and it's particularly when it's a horse that you expect to have a, a pretty, uh, long and fruitful campaign as a three-year-old, maybe even a, even as a four-year-old, they, uh, they pull up out of caution 'cause, you know, that's, that's, that's a, that's a troubled trip right there.
4:34
Um, but, uh, no, to run him through that was wild. Uh, I couldn't believe it as I saw it. And, uh, you know, it just kind of proved the degree of class that journalism was, uh, in that field.
4:44
Um, and, uh, yeah, I mean, it, it was a relatively weak field in hindsight, but, uh, b- boy, oh, boy, what a, uh, what a, what a, uh, uh, example of overcoming adversity [laughs] from an animal.
4:57
[laughs] From an animal, incredible. Um, preliminary thoughts, who's winning the Belmont in three weeks, or a little less than three weeks' time? Uh, I'd say Sovereignty is very, very clearly your horse to beat there.
5:06
Yeah. Um, the... If, uh, if you're a long student of the Triple Crown, you kind of are used to the Belmont being run at the Belmont and being longer. Uh, it's kind of the marathon of the Triple Crown traditionally.
5:20
Uh, this year is the second and final year they are running the Belmont at Saratoga, and because of the nature of the track at Saratoga, they can't do a mile and a half. They stick to a mile and a quarter.
5:30
So it's the same distance that the Kentucky Derby was run.
5:33
Um, and, uh, the only kind of obvious takeaway you could have from rewatching the Kentucky Derby is that Sovereignty wanted that distance, and, uh, he's gonna get it again.
5:43
So, um, [clears throat] as great a horse as Journalism is, we're probably really not gonna see, uh, a Journalism-Sovereignty rematch where both horses are peaked for their prime until we get to the fall. Okay, to tennis.
5:55
Uh, before we get to the French Open, by the way, uh, Beating the Book Podcast Uh, Drew Dincic, Zach Cohen, and I, Thursday, once the draw is announced in Paris, uh, probably prior to when they'll have quarters out, but you never know, we'll do a podcast on the French Open.
6:11
Uh, tennis's second major of the year, the Clay Major. Any plays today that are left in Hamburg, Strasbourg, Geneva, or Rabat for you? The week before a Slam is a week to, um- The void... reflect- Yes, I'm with you...
6:26
on, reflect on what's happened as opposed to really spinning into those pools. I'm totally with you. Um, the, uh, uh, and maybe no more important week to take that and heed that advice than the week, this week here.
6:40
Um, these clay tournaments are absolutely insane.
6:43
We, y- y- you, you will watch, you can, we, we can watch these matches expecting to learn something, and all you're gonna learn is whatever, whatever that player decided to go to that tournament for whatever reason.
6:53
Yeah. It's not gonna tell you anything about their form. Um, so it's a little bit of a lost cause for this particular week of, of clay.
7:00
Um, no one go, no one, no one plays anything the week before the US Open, largely because those tournaments are pretty absurd.
7:07
Uh, they're in, like, the heat and humidity of Winston-Salem, and, uh, I can't even remember where the women, women's tournament is that, that week.
7:13
But, uh, it's, those, those are just, you're putting yourself in harm's way even competing. Um, the grass tournaments at Eastbourne I think are actually maybe the exception to the rule.
7:22
That tells you a little bit of something about how a player is playing on that surface, because the grass season is so short, that is a little bit of valuable data. But this week of clay is, is absolute chaos.
7:32
I mean, um, I wouldn't say you can learn- Haven't made, haven't made a bet myself either. I'm with you. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you, you, you will learn some things, right? Like,
7:40
do we think that Alexander Zverev feels good about his game?
7:43
No [laughs] because he went to Hamburg as opposed to just getting right for the, uh, the French Open, and, uh, you did have a tweet that asked the question about, uh- Yes. Let's, let's throw up the-... a field. Yeah.
7:54
Let's throw up a field bet here. Yeah. This is, well, the, the f- the tweet was, "ESPN+ offering," I guess he means the ESPN bet, "offering French Open field versus Carlitos and Sinner is plus 225 value."
8:06
Let's throw up the French Open men's odds, if you will. It is, by the way, Carlitos, uh, Carlos Alcaraz just beat Jannik Sinner, uh, at the final- Mm... in Rome.
8:14
But keep in mind that was Jannik Sinner's first tournament back from suspension, so again, how much do you read into that? But it is Carlitos at plus 125 to win the French. Mm.
8:24
Jannik Sinner plus 175, and the aforementioned Zverev leads the rest 11 to one and longer. Yeah. Uh, plus 225 missing a zero. Missing a zero. Wow. There's your answer, Coach May. Two-man race. Yeah.
8:39
Two, two-man, uh, two-man tournament. As we have come to understand m- most in men's tennis really of, uh, of the last, kind of, 30-ish [laughs] of 30 or 40 men's Slams, it's, uh, the quality at the top is so, so good.
8:55
And when the two players at the top are both in, you know, good physical form, there's no real reason to overthink this.
9:02
Um, Sinner for me is, would be the play, uh, at this time of type of price point just because I think his path to the final is gonna be a little bit cleaner, and Alcaraz is a little bit more of a play with this food in week one kind of a guy that has gotten him into trouble against much lesser players at Slam events.
9:20
Um, but, uh, I can't really dispute the, the quality that Alcaraz showed in that Rome final.
9:26
I thought that was pretty, uh, pretty impressive the way he was able to, um, kind of embrace his game in the key high leverage points in the first set tie break, and then, um, you know, effectively just putting on the afterburners and dispatching Sinner with no qualms in the second set was, was, was, was notable.
9:43
Um, I will qualify it the same way you did, which is Sinner's first time back, Sinner's first match against a, an opponent that is, you know, is actually a real true test.
9:52
And so, um, I kind of give him a pass for not being able to find his way into that match.
9:57
But the, kind of the more concerning thing for Sinner and the reason why he's the dog and not the favorite in this ma- in this particular tournament is that he just hasn't solved Alcaraz now going on, like, a year and a half.
10:09
Like, he hasn't beaten him head-to-head, uh, since 2023. Mm-hmm. Um, maybe further.
10:15
Uh, I, I haven't looked at the head-to-head recently, but, um, I know Carlos played him three times last year and he got him all three times.
10:22
Uh, I know that the French Open last year, Alcaraz defeated him in a five-setter, uh, even though his elbow was not in 100%, uh, you know, at, not at full strength.
10:32
So, um, I get it why Alcaraz is the favorite, but I think there's a better, better, there's a more realistic chance that he does something silly in week one and doesn't get to the final, whereas Sinner is so clinical, um, and is so fresh and so sharp that, uh, he will be in the final.
10:47
It's just a matter of, uh, if he can either, number one, find the answers to de- finally defeat Alcaraz in that moment, or number two, if, if Alcaraz is even there.
10:56
So let me ask you this just for giggles before we go to the break here. If I came to you from the future and I said, "Hey, guess what? It's not Alcaraz and Sinner in the final.
11:04
This one player, uh, punctured the bubble," that player would be? Jeez. Uh- Draw unseen, by the way. Draw unseen. Yeah. I think my third choice right now would actually be Lorenzo Musetti. That would be my third.
11:19
Um- Bang. That's exactly who- I think Lorenzo Musetti definitely has... He's, he's young young, right? He's, well, I say he's young young. He's 23. So Sinner's 23. T- Carlos is 22.
11:31
So he's, he's right in that generation with these guys. But, uh, he, uh- Something, something happened to Musetti in- He's putting, he's, he's putting it together. Yeah.
11:37
Something happened to him in Monte Carlo where he went from- Yeah... just sort of a twen- top 20, top 30 player to, "Oh, I found it. I'm going to be awesome." Yes. Uh, we'll get to the women's side. Okay.
11:47
We'll get to the NBA. Drew's got a number you gotta hear next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. The Belichick family is losing their minds right now.
12:04
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12:15
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12:18
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12:31
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12:40
Jay Buckley, "Never forget Drew tipping us on," uh, was that Jonas to win the Tour de France the other year? Jonas? Is that how, how pronounced it correctly? Yeah, sure.
12:50
He's giving Drew a shout-out for his, uh, Tour de France, uh, expertise. V James Lloyd, "Having Sunday fun day, and I found, uh, Drew Dincic's doppelganger in North Carolina."
13:00
Oh, we should probably throw this picture up at some point. This guy looks exactly like Drew. Um, that could be Drew. That might actually be Drew on the drums. Drew, do you play the drums by any chance?
13:09
Let's bring in Drew Dincic. Drew Dincic, uh, @whale_capper, by the way, I failed to mention, co-host of both the Deep Dive, uh, podcast with Andy Molitor, and of course, uh, NBC Sports Bet The Edge with Jay Croucher.
13:21
By the way, Bobby Geddis shouts you out. He says, like, "I think I can help Kelly with the hurling versus curling dilemma. Also, Drew's solo pod while Andy was out was fantastic yesterday. Lot of quick nuggets."
13:31
There's a shout-out for you, Drew. I love it, man. Um, don't play the drums, although my, uh, my cousin Matt, who's my musical, uh, kind of north star in, in life, uh, was and is a professional drummer.
13:43
Um, he has actually similar hair, so you might be looking at Matt Dincic. [laughs] The, uh- Oh... uh, the, uh, the, um, yeah, the curling, uh, the, the, the, uh, the, the biking.
13:56
Um, if there's a niche sport that you need handicapped, uh, there's a decent chance that I got a good, I got a good number for you. Where are we? D- does... When is the Tour de France? What month?
14:07
So we're, we're in the, we're in the heart of the Giro d'Italia right now, Gil. Okay. And you don't need me to remind you of this. Duh. No, clearly not. But, uh, they, they, um- No...
14:14
Sunday, Sunday was the, uh, kind of the classic stage through Tuscany that finishes in Siena. Oh, beautiful. Um, all of us who are, yeah, all of us who are kind of gambling men know the, know the name Siena, Italy.
14:25
It's of course where, where they run the, um, the, the horse race in the, uh- Oh, yeah... in the town square. Oh, yeah. Oh, that thing's cool. [laughs] The, this is...
14:33
Yes, this is, uh, is c- c- this famous, uh, you know, uh, thousand-year-old gambling city of Siena.
14:41
The Giro just finished, uh, stage eight there with Wout van Aert, uh, riding the, the race of the s- of the Tour to this point.
14:49
Uh, today's the time trial in the Giro d'Italia, uh, and, uh, we have a potential wild upset on our hands as a 21-year-old Mexican from Ensenada- Wow... in Baja- Wow... uh, is currently, uh, a minute ahead of the field.
15:03
And, uh, this is like a true and wild breakout that no one saw coming. Um, my guess is his pre-Tour odds were somewhere in the 200 to 1 range, if he was even listed.
15:14
Um, and, uh, yeah, it's, it's, uh, it's pretty, pretty chaotic.
15:17
But, uh, the important news and notes if you're handicapping cycling is that the top two riders on Tour, Jonas Vingegaard, who won the Tour de France two years ago, and Tadej Pogačar, who won last year- Yep...
15:29
uh, they both elected to skip the Giro d'Italia to rest up and prepare for what looks to be, uh, the head-to-head of the last decade in cycling as- Wow...
15:39
both guys are in peak form with good teams and, uh, are gonna go head-to-head to kinda square once and for all who is the rider of this generation. It's in two months. It's the Sinner-Alcaraz of, uh, of, of cycling.
15:51
S- how much- True... how much rest do these guys need, Drew? They, it's two months away. Drew, Drew, I just need a, I just need a one-sentence answer to this question. Is the kid from Mexico now, is, is the nature of...
16:01
If he is to win, is the nature of his win, is the veracity of it going to be questioned with cycling history? Not at all. Okay. No. You win a classic, you win a classic, you are for real.
16:13
What, what will, what will happen is he will be a, you know, he will punch his ticket financially for like the next decade. Good for him. Right?
16:20
Like, some team will either give him a huge pile of money to be, you know, one of their kind of captains or, uh, or he will be kind of swept onto one of the top teams to, uh, to be a support rider, um, with, you know, the potential to elevate into kind of lead rider, uh, as he ages into kinda his prime.
16:38
So- Okay... um, no, if he, if he holds on and win, and it's, a- again, like a lot of racing left, guys. We got a, we got a, we got a lot of, lot of stages left before we get- Yeah... to the end of the Giro.
16:47
Obviously, Kelly. Um- Jeez. [laughs] I mean, I know we gotta hit NBA, but what's a huge sum of money mean for a, a cyclist? What, how much is that? Uh, shoot, man.
16:59
The, th- this is big time for, for like kind of the, among the niche sports.
17:03
My guess is yearly contracts for a guy who kind of punches his ticket on a classic and wins something like this, um, you're in seven figures in terms of- Wow... compensation. So- There you go...
17:14
um- Kelly, it's not too late... I'd say probably two- [laughs]... two, $3 million a year. S- start training. I mean- All right. All right.
17:20
This is the, the, the, the, the, the money that these teams put into the, um, the actual, the full team, uh, is not unlike, uh, like F1, right?
17:31
Like, this is, these are massive, like, oil and gas companies in Europe that are, you know, like Astana is a team which is literally like the national team of Kazakhstan.
17:42
You know, like, they, they're putting their entire fortune behind that to give people, uh, kind of awareness of- Jeez... how, how, you know, Ka- Kazakhstan as an entity, you know?
17:50
Like, like, th- this, it's, uh, it's pretty big money ultimately. And- All right... um, my guess is if you're a top-tier rider, you're getting compensated in the tune of $2 to $3 million a year.
17:57
For more on the Tour de France, Drew, in coming weeks, in coming months we will talk more about it. Um, by the way, we- we'll talk French Open ladies' side on the podcast on Thursday.
18:06
We'll shelve that for that, so listen to the Beating The Book podcast. I know Drew was fiending to talk about it now, but we wanna get to the NBA. By the way, again, another tweet.
18:14
"People are more fascinated by your, like, your random stuff, Drew, than anything." Bob, uh, this is from- [laughs]... Steve The Proxy.
18:20
"Is this the first time we've seen the California version of the stratosphere in Drew's background, his fish tank? What's the status of that ecosystem? Anyone new to the neighborhood?"
18:29
I have-- people are fa-- people wanna know about his fish and everything. Um- It's just a planted aquarium right now. Yeah. I, uh, I have two fish tanks. Yeah.
18:37
One that is in front of me, uh, with, uh, uh, with one of my fish that, uh, has survived the fish apocalypse. Uh, he's great. Yeah. Uh, but the, uh, the one behind me is only plants. Okay. Yeah, a tree fell in it. Yeah.
18:48
NBA, I went to break, and I said, "You've got a number that's gonna wow people." And then you, after a pregnant pause, go, "Do I?" [laughs] Uh, but you do.
18:57
Oklahoma City and th- and th- and the, uh, Timberwolves of Minnesota. Uh, Oklahoma City, seven and a half point favorite. Obviously, OKC prohibitive, uh, series favorites as well. How do you see this?
19:08
Yeah, so, um, ultimately, again, like, lots can happen. We are still eight wins away from crowning a champion, uh, in the NBA finals.
19:19
However, uh, it feels very, very strongly like the Thunder effectively, uh, punched their ticket on Sunday with the win over the Nuggets.
19:30
Now, um, with that win, um, I draw them into a minus 700 fare against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the- Ooh... Western Conference finals. Oof.
19:41
Uh, and then regardless of opponent in the finals, they would be minus 400, or thereabouts for me, which means I have the Thunder right now at about 70% chance to win the title, which is in the minus 230 range. Wow.
19:54
So it's gonna, it's gonna be sh- uh, it'll be a surprise if the Thunder don't ultimately ship this. And, um, and in this particular series, I am really, really looking...
20:04
I'm struggling for answers as to how Minnesota's competitive, honestly. By the way- This is the perfect match-up for the Thunder... th- this slight update, a little tick down here.
20:12
Timberwolves now seven-point dogs, not seven and a half. Go ahead. I'm sorry. Yeah. I, I don't, I don't hate that movement either, 'cause this game one is probably the Timberwolves' best chance.
20:22
You're getting a Thunder team that really poured a lot of energy into a game seven. Um, and really, that, that, uh, that entire series was, it was massively physical.
20:31
Um, and could have taken something out of the Thunder to the tune of they, you know, have a bit of a, a, you know, of finding their way in game one. So
20:41
if you made me take a side with the points in game one, I would take the seven with the, uh, Timberwolves, as my fare is around five and a half considering the fatigue.
20:49
Um, but, uh, my most likely outcome of this series is Thunder sweep. I have that happening 26% of the time. Oh my God. Uh, and then- Wow... and then decreasing c- confidence at, at, uh, a longer series.
21:03
So basically second most likely is Thunder in five, third most likely is Thunder in six. Uh, fourth most likely is Thunder in seven. But, uh- You, you have a play on game one? Every game. You doing anything with this?
21:14
I like the under. Um, I think the Timberwolves are gonna struggle to get to 100 points in pretty much every game in this series. Yeah.
21:20
I have their expected offensive rating coming in around 104, which is f- super f- super low. So this is, uh, um, this is gonna be a tough series for them offensively.
21:32
And, uh, I'm, yeah, I mean, I, I'm kind of excited to see exactly what D'Antoni decides to do in terms of his defensive rotations and making life miserable for the Timberwolves.
21:41
Your number's closer to market for the Pacers and the Knicks? I am on the Pacers there. [laughs] Uh, I line that as a dead even 50/50 series. Oh, boy. And, uh, I took plus 140 with Indiana. Um- Look at that...
21:53
I took the four and a half points in game one. I think the Pacers pro- I think the Pacers have the best offensive player in the series with Haliburton, although it is very narrow between him and Brunson.
22:03
And I think the Pacers have the two best defensive players with Siakam and Nembhard.
22:08
Um, and if you kind of wanna throw a little bit of extra sauce into the mix, the, kind of the current form of the Pacers' offense is just, it is such a smoothly oiled machine right now, whereas the Knicks,
22:20
their offense really only looks good when they're getting something out of Bridges and Anunoby, and that has been a choose-your-own-adventure this entire playoff.
22:26
So, um, I'll be surprised if the, uh, if the Knicks take care of business cleanly. If they win, it's gonna be close and ugly. Um, and I will not be surprised if the Pacers turn out to be just very good.
22:37
Here's a picture of Drew playing the drums in North Carolina on the way out. Look at this kid. He's handicapping and also playing the drums. Do we have that? No? It might be a little tight. Might be a little tight.
22:46
So I won't- Let's show it on the other side. I saw it on the side, and that was a, that was a little spooky. [laughs] Thank you, Drew. We'll show it on the other end.
22:51
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Don't forget to check out the Sharp Plays.
22:58
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23:08
Gil Alexander, we get tweets of betting the book. Jesse Welch, [laughs] "Somewhere out there," he says, "Somewhere out there, base winner is still talking Dbacks metrics for tonight's play." [laughs] I just love that.
23:19
Just ran him into a wall. I apologize. I like that the, uh... Well, well, you brought that up with Spore yesterday. Yeah.
23:26
All I was thinking about was, was the Diamondbacks, and I was like, "Well, Mark's gotta love the Diamondbacks here."
23:30
As I was, as I was loading that question, I thought to myself, I'm like, "Oh, we already know the answer to this from him." Yeah. Right. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Uh, Brian M., "Euro d'Italia," which is in New Jersey, I believe.
23:40
[laughs] Talking about the, uh, the race that Drew was referring to. Ben Handorf.
23:46
Ben Handorf, "As a long-suffering Leafs fan, Gil, we will need another cryptic miracle like the legend of Bill Barilko for this squad to win another cup.
23:54
Check out the song, uh, '50 Mission Cap' by The Tragically Hip to get the full history of this wild happenstance."
24:00
Andy McNeil, who used to do hockey for us, he used to, his Twitter handle used to be The Tragically Hip, I believe. Really? Or The Tragically Hip Check. He made it into some hockey thing.
24:09
He's one of those guys that changed his handle too many times. 'Cause I think The Tragically Hip was f- is from Toronto, if I'm not mistaken. Let me Google. Yeah.
24:15
While you're looking for the tush push update, why don't you look at Google that? And Steve the Proxy. Uh, I brought this up yesterday, Steve. I'm glad you're bringing it up again.
24:22
He goes, "Is there anything to the thought that OKC versus Indiana would be a ratings disaster for non-NBA hardos? Shouldn't we assume that New York and Minnesota would be the beneficiaries of foul calls in each series?
24:33
SGA versus H- uh, versus Uh, Halliburton or Brunson versus Ant, Jeff thinks it's over total games combined. Hey, listen, I can't work reading these tweets.
24:43
[laughs] You guys gotta, you, you, you guys gotta spell out the words. Um, no, I totally agree with you, Steve. Um, this is for the n- we're so close to the sun on this. We're betting it. We love basketball.
24:53
But yes, I, I was just talking about the average sports fan friend in your life who let's say is a big football fan, but is kind of like, "Hey, if LeBron or Steph is playing, I'm into it, but otherwise I really couldn't care less," this is a nightmare.
25:07
Y- you know what? I sat- Yes... uh, just to take this to, to prove your point even more, the...
25:12
You know how excited I got yesterday when I had the realiz- I hadn't really thought about it this way before, but the realization of like, these are four teams that are all led by star young, youngish guards, and it's like, that's really cool and rarely ever happens.
25:28
I- Like, usually we've seen the wings. Yeah. We've seen, y- you know, all these other different sets of teams. I always use my buddy Tommy in DC as an example. Huge football fan, as many in DC are, right?
25:37
But, but he's like, i- you know, and if it's a star, if it's Steph, he's into it. But, you know, m- i- will he watch these conference finals? Not a chance. Not a chance. And I think he represents a lot of people.
25:49
Uh, Ben Wilson, ladies and gentlemen, in the non-Stormy Monitoni category, he is the winner of Who Will Be The Most Famous Person To Ever Come Out Of VSiN? Ben Wilson joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
26:01
Always a pleasure to see his face. How you doing, Ben? I'm great. I'm, I'm glad I can win a, uh, a winner without market. Yeah. What [laughs] what- It's, it's a, it's a high, high honor. Winner without market.
26:10
There's a, there's a market with Stormy, and then there's a winner without Stormy market. You are the favorite in that market. Good call, Ben. Yeah. That's what I was wondering too. [laughs] That's awesome.
26:17
Yeah, that's awesome. It's a golf thing. [laughs] Nice of you to catch that. Yeah. Uh, all right. Great. So let's, let's do a, I wanna do a few sports here. Let's start with the French Open, your thoughts on that first.
26:29
I can't wait to see what, uh... First off, with the draw here coming up, I think Thursday, we have, we s- we s- have tended to see, Gil, in the past, the, the folks who organize the draw tend to do some weird things.
26:41
Yes. And when you now have... I mean, for the women at least, Iga Świątek, who's the, we know the seeds, we just don't know the order. A five seed, right?
26:49
But are they really going to put Iga and Aryna Sabalenka in the same half of the draw?
26:54
Like, that, that to me is the big question here, and, um, I, I, I love also getting the ev- every few weeks just random tweets from people during your show of, of, uh, "Hey, remember that one time you slammed Iga while I was in for Gil?"
27:05
Yes. [laughs] Yes. It's, it's been the best running bit ever. Um, but- Stole my question... I, it... Yes, exactly. Um, I will say, though, I mean, if we're just comparing odds, right?
27:16
Remember when Iga was, you know, you're laying a, you're laying a big price for her to win this tournament. Uh, that feels, you know, now you're getting to, you know, plus 220.
27:23
That's an awfully big shift, just generally speaking on that, on a surface that certainly plays the slowest right along with Rome of all these clay court spots. I...
27:32
Look, I've always been a huge, and a part of why people make fun of me on, uh, for, you know, for my Iga slaters, 'cause I've always been a huge Aryna Sabalenka fan.
27:39
Uh, she, her clay numbers actually are not that big of a dip down from her hard court and grass numbers, which I think would surprise a lot of people.
27:46
However, a lot of the, the good clay court data has been on the faster clay, like in, uh, like in Madrid, like in Barcelona, and in Stuttgart, which is an indoor event.
27:56
But I, I mean, I, I totally believe that that's justified her and, and Iga to be basically around the same.
28:01
I really hope they're not in the same side of the draw, uh, but, but that to me is very, you know, very interesting where the odds are at there. Yeah. Um, m- in men's side, it's, it's, uh, simple for me.
28:11
I just, the quarter four with Taylor Fritz being the four seed, being completely out of form, there's, like, three or four guys I'm like, "Please just end up in Q4," 'cause that thing's gonna be totally wide open.
28:20
I really hope Arthur Fils, he's kind of the top of my list for, uh, you know, one of the... I think there's gonna be a total random long shot wild card who, uh, who wins that Q4 there on the men's side.
28:30
Stop dancing around, Benny. Sabalenka or Świątek, who wins head-to-head? I, uh, uh, look, I think for this particular tournament, I'll go Sabalenka. Ba, ba, ba. For him, him. For this particular tournament.
28:42
[laughs] For any tournament you would say that. What? What? Uh- This, what is, it, it's the worst form Iga's ever been presented. Oh, no question. Aryna Sabalenka is playing out of her mind.
28:51
Like, if it's ever gonna happen, it's now. I mean, there's probably no other time, at least, you know, in their careers they're gonna be this evenly priced. Second-best clay numbers behind Iga, Coco, actually.
29:02
Both, both Iga and Coco have mental blocks, it, it appears. I just wanted to make sure we got it on the record. Yeah. You know? That's good. Yeah. I, I, I... Thank you for leading me down that path.
29:12
[laughs] I, I knew I could count on you. Again, Ben, the non-Stormy market, you're the favorite in that. [laughs] Yes. Yeah. Um, okay. To, to basketball. You have some Timberwolves plays here. Yeah.
29:22
I'll, I'll go against the grain and, uh, I, I respect everything that, uh, I just heard Drew Dinsick talk about.
29:28
But look, we, we have seen the blueprint at least play out of, as, as far as how you beat an Oklahoma City team.
29:34
It's leverage the youth and inexperience and show physicality that can match their, their really good defense.
29:40
And I'm not gonna, you know, sit here and say that, you know, look, the best thing that anybody does of these four remaining teams is what Oklahoma City does on defense.
29:47
Uh, however, I, I believe that that line, the series price is a little heavy, uh, there in favor of Oklahoma City. To me, it feels more of a toss-up series.
29:56
I do believe Minnesota, look, they can go seven, eight, nine deep of guys you can actually trust in a playoff series. Denver couldn't do that.
30:04
That's ultimately what could not get them over the hump, and, and you need that sort of depth to be able to compete with an OKC team that's just so malleable and can throw so many different things at you.
30:12
So there's a world in which Minnesota's able to find those answers to me, and given that this is such a big price, like, I don't, I don't see Minnesota, like, if it's a close series, them going into OKC and winning a game seven.
30:24
So I just took a sprinkle on a Minnesota in six. I mean, you're getting four to one.
30:28
And look, Julius Randle, who's just been on an absolute heater now for, uh, six, seven weeks here, averaged 25 a game in the, in the conference semis Especially if, you know, depending on how the defensive match-ups go, if more attention, it certainly, there's gonna be dual attention to both he and Anthony Edwards, no doubt.
30:46
But, I mean, 30 to 1 when we've seen some shooting struggles for SGA, who's the favorite in that market. 30 to 1 on Randall to lead the, the series in points.
30:54
I, I just looked at that, I'm like, "That, that seems like a ridiculous price for a guy who is, um, just playing insane basketball," and at one point we thought was kind of a guarantee to use his player option for next year.
31:04
Uh, now I don't, there's, I don't think he'd do that.
31:07
I mean, he's gonna, he's gonna get a, a lot of great offers, uh, and one of the few guys to have that ability given the, the new cap rules coming into place for next year. So that was a couple plays for me.
31:16
I also threw in the Isaiah Hartenstein, the series rebounds leader. You're getting that near three to one. Just in a situation where wanting to diversify the portfolio a little bit.
31:23
I definitely think if you're comparing him and Chet Holmgren, two pretty similarly priced guys as far as leading that series in rebounds, I'd much rather take a Hartenstein to kinda neutralize what Rudy Gobert wants to do on the interior, someone who's a little bit more, um, anchored to that part of the floor.
31:38
So just a few, look, you know, th- throw three of those out there, you hope to hit one. Um, pretty good plus money numbers on all those.
31:44
All right, Ben, you are, for those who don't know, Ben is a fantastic play-by-play announcer across multiple sports. One of the sports you cover, uh, and do play-by-play for is college baseball.
31:54
So you see a lot of games. Uh, Omaha is right around the corner, College World Series.
31:59
Give us a team right now that you would play in the futures market in terms of winning the title, and then some other teams that have caught your eye as well. Yep.
32:08
I, I believe back in February I, I mentioned Clemson, and they remind me a little bit of what Texas A&M's season arc was last year, which was super hot start. I think A&M went like 21 and 0 last year.
32:19
Clemson was, I think, 19 and 1 to start the year. Then they got a bunch of pitching injuries mid-season, so they, they struggled a little bit back into ACC play, and now they've got their guys healthy.
32:30
I'm gonna buy in that dip. I think I, when I first looked at them they were 30 to 1 back in February. Well, now they've dipped to 40 to 1.
32:36
They are likely gonna host a regional, and they've got a, a pretty good setup to draw the ACC tournament. So I still like Clemson. That's a, a really good team that should not be 40 to 1.
32:45
Cam Candarella having an awesome year hitting over 330.
32:48
And then two teams who had no expectations coming into this season really but have been awesome, and it's sort of the, the case in the transfer portal era where you can put together really good teams out of nowhere.
32:57
Louisville out of the ACC, K-State out of the Big 12. K-State, by the way, I think is a good long shot pl- pick to win the Big 12 tournament.
33:04
Uh, they play, uh, they're a speedy team, hit balls in the gaps which plays really well at Globe Life Field in Arlington. So K-State is a six seed.
33:12
Watch out for them in the Big 12 tournament, both with very veteran coaches, Pete Hughes for K-State, Dan McDonnell for Louisville, coaches who, you know, know what they're doing, how to manage the bullpen, handle the pitching staff once you get to a regional.
33:23
Those are two probably gonna be like two to three seeds, uh, and I think they'll be really dangerous in regionals. Ben, you're awesome. Always appreciate you coming on, man. Thank you so much. Absolutely, guys.
33:33
Winner without. Winner without, cash out. Benny. You got a shot in the full one too, but I'm just saying. Benny and the bets. Ben Wilson, everybody. We'll recap all the bets next right here on The Numbers Game at VSiN.
33:45
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander.
34:01
My little buddy Kelly Bidlin alongside everybody. What's up? Producer number nine. So much more than a producer. Uh, we get tweets of Beating the Book.
34:08
Ryan Hyatt, shadow producer of, uh, Primetime Action back in the day. He says, "Love the college baseball discussion on ANG with Gil, Kelly, and Ben Wilson.
34:18
College baseball post-season should be a great market for those smart enough to do a modicum of research." He's right. Again, I don't know if y'all remember this, 2022, Ole Miss, 100 to 1, cha-ching.
34:31
That was one of the great rides ever. The Hotty Toddy ride was fantastic. What a summer. Brian M., "I've been enjoying the WTA the last couple days," the women's tour- uh, side of the tour.
34:41
"Seven four and one yesterday and today." Good for you, Brian. Nice. And Zach Cohen reminding, uh, folks on, uh, Twitter. He said, "I'll be doing a bunch of, uh, French Open stuff.
34:50
Draw comes out Thursday, so I'm gonna be joining Gil and Drew on the Beating the Book podcast." He's also gonna do men's and women's draw analysis for vsin.com either later that day or Friday.
35:00
So all the, uh, all the tennis you can want. And Roger Jones, beloved national treasure of the Tragically Hip, not from Strasbourg, Ontario, or Toronto, but Kingston, Ontario. Yes. Thank you for that, Roger Jones.
35:10
I had that pulled up, yeah. Yeah. By the way, I hope Ben wasn't, uh, offended by the fact that I said he would be the most, most famous in the non-Stormy market. Yeah, it's kind of funny the way you say that.
35:19
[laughs] Well, 'cause Stormy's already, you know, doing big things. Oh, I understand. Stormy, and Stormy is lovable. I mean, what is there not to love about Stormy? She- Uh, uh, nothing... lovable, able to be loved.
35:29
Yeah. I, I, yeah, I think you could just say good things about Ben without comparing him. [laughs] You, Kelly, are remarkable. [laughs] Folks are able to make remarks about you.
35:39
[laughs] No, Ben, this is, I just wanna, I was just busting on, on Ben. Yeah, yeah. Ben Wilson is fantastic in what he does. Fantastic. He's, his play-by-play is awesome, by the way. Oh, he's great. Yeah. He's great.
35:53
So he'll be doing, so he'll be doing the WAC Tournament this weekend, college baseball. Yeah, yeah. That'll be on ESPN+. Sounds like a lot of ESPN+ for Ben here, right? A lot of ESPN.
36:02
He's gonna be doing arena football he said after that. Mm-hmm. Arena football? Yeah. Uh, let's recap all the best bets from today courtesy of gbank, the official bank of VSiN.
36:10
Uh, I didn't have anything specific today yet, but I will be, uh, as I mentioned, I did bet the Pacers yesterday, plus 140 to win the series against the Knicks.
36:19
I will most li- listen, I'll be on the Pacers plus the points in game one tomorrow. I can almost guarantee that. Will I be on the T'Wolves plus the points in the contest tonight is the only question. Mm, mm, mm.
36:31
We'll see, we'll see what number they're dealing in the old VSiN Killer Sports Challenge, where Steve Fezzik and Zach Cohen are tied. And you and I are two and a half games back So, so that's another interesting wrinkle.
36:43
I thought it was a g- great story up at V- at vsan.com. We're releasing the newsletter today about Steve, from Steve and Zach.
36:49
I think Bill asked them about kind of their different approaches to, to, to the contest, right? We were talking a little bit about this earlier. And the... I think the one note, like I already submitted one.
36:59
I already have a play in there. Yeah. It's Timberwolves plus seven and a half. And you know what Fezzik would say about you? What?
37:05
Unless your number is just so much better than the market price and you're betting it now- I th-... because of that... I put it in because I thought this number would go the Minnesota way, which it is going this morning.
37:17
Okay. So you're, you got a...
37:21
Let's put it this way, you s- you got a save because if it had not gone that way, Steve Fezzik would say to, to you and about anybody who plays it this way wrongly a day before or whatever, and also we've had pl- you know, people who get the worst of it playing- Mm-hmm...
37:35
these contest numbers. He is just beside himself. He's like, "How do these people not know how to play contests?" He's like very judgmental about this kind of stuff. Yeah. No, no, no. Yeah.
37:43
I, that's what I'm pointing out. I thought that, I thought that was one thing that was missing from that piece. Yeah. That there is the, still at the end of the day I'm trying to get the best of the number.
37:51
Here is the, uh, current standings by the way. Grand prize $3,000. Second and third place are in the money as well though, courtesy of Carl Sack and Killer Sports. There's Zach and Steve, 19-11.
38:02
Remember, it's only pre-flop ATS full game or pre-flop total full game. Doug Kazerian in third, and you and me along with Alex Christensen just ready to pounce.
38:15
Hon- honestly, Gail, I'm just try- Kyle Aikens in it as well... I'm just trying to decide if I'm gonna, if I'm gonna use two bullets on tonight's game. Oh, Kelly Bidlin, two bullets. I might. I might.
38:24
[laughs] That one I will be waiting until, uh, right before entry time. An hour before, right? Hour before? Hour before tip-off. That one I'll be waiting on, but, um,
38:34
I'm gonna feel really dumb though if the, uh, Thunder then go, go win this game like 140 to, [laughs] to 100 or something like that.
38:42
Well, and when the question for me is will everybody else be betting the Timberwolves plus seven and a half and then the str- Sure... and the strategery for me would be to just stay off it and then hope everybody loses.
38:52
I thought those, if you've listened to Drew Dincic on this show for a long time, I thought his pricing of that game and that series were very interesting. Very fascinating 'cause he is...
39:04
H- this is, I mean, the one thing that I've, and I've said this about Drew now for the last few months especially, like I've noticed this about him. Maybe you've noticed this on, on his podcast.
39:11
His conviction on stuff is like the certainty, the certitude- Mm... with which he says certain things and his numbers is, is eye-opening for sure. Like even the NFL draft, remember, he's like, "Oh, Shedeur is dropping.
39:24
Everybody knows he's dropping." I was like, "Does everybody know that already?" And it turns out he did, right?
39:27
And then there's some other stuff that don't go his way, but I'm like I'm, I'm always impressed by how the c- the level of his conviction on things.
39:33
So I don't think it's, like the series pricing, I don't think it's absurd to sit here and say that you've got this price similarly to what the Thunder were against the Nuggets.
39:42
I don't think that's crazy to say, but to me, I watched that Nugget series, and my personal rating of the Thunder went down a little bit after that, after that Thunder series.
39:52
But then to hear him say that he's got this game tonight at five and a half, it's like that's almost more aggressive than where I see it. So, uh, just interesting.
39:59
So yeah, I'm on Wolves, uh, plus seven and a half tonight. Uh, in the series I've got a couple bets. Wolves-Thunder over five and a half games, played this at minus 125. I, I think it's Thunder.
40:09
I think it's Thunder in six or seven though probably is what we're seeing in the series. And then what did Ask Ben about this, but it's too, too much to talk about with Ben.
40:16
I bet leading rebounder in this series as well. I went Chet Holmgren though. He went Isaiah Hartenstein. I don't know if he's looking at it the same way I am.
40:24
I think there is a chance though that we see Gobert get played off the court a little bit. I don't think it will happen early in the series.
40:31
I think Chris Finch is gonna s- try to stick with him as much as possible early in the series.
40:35
But if Thunder go single big and only Chet on the court and a lot of other guards and wing players, I think it's gonna force, uh, it's gonna force them to evaluate how they're using Gobert.
40:45
So I think there's some value on Holmgren to lead in re- rebounding. I like him over Hartenstein 'cause he's already got more rebounds in the playoffs than Hartenstein does anyways.
40:53
He's the Thunder's leading rebounder, uh, already in the playoffs. Playing a little bit of that off position is where you're gonna see him come in and swoop some rebounds, scoop some rebounds over some shorter guys.
41:02
So I actually like him. It's over three to one at DraftKings. I think it's a good price. Um, and then the other, only other bet, [laughs] the only bet I have in that Knicks-Pacers series, this is a bit of a tale of JVT.
41:11
I thought he had a great writeup on it, missed the best of the number, but Josh Hart, uh, to lead the series in rebounds, uh, I'm going with in the Knicks-Pacers series.
41:19
Plus 550 on that for Josh Hart to lead the series in rebounds. The, uh, Pacers-Knicks series starts tomorrow night. Marc Borchard joins us ear- uh, joined us earlier.
41:28
He's on the Arizona Diamondbacks, uh, in a singular game. He's actually on the Diamondbacks on the run line to be more specific, plus one and a half, plus 105 against the Dodgers, uh, tonight.
41:40
So he is all about the Diamondbacks and his [laughs] was it Jesse Welch who said, "And somewhere he's still talking Diamondbacks metrics right now," as we're, as we're talking about this.
41:48
Uh, also, uh, had Jake Hahn on the show earlier to talk, uh, National Hockey League with us. He is on the Florida Panthers tonight, plus 110 in game one against the Hurricanes.
41:59
And said, "If you're gonna play the Panthers on the series," he was like, "Wait till after game one in case they lose and then jump on them there." Yeah, I thought that made a lot of sense. Yeah.
42:04
Play them in game one instead of the series. Yeah. Train, train may leave the station, but- Mm-hmm... you know, he's play- he's on the Panthers game one. Drew Dincic, uh, he is on the Pacers plus the points.
42:13
He's on the Pacers at the exact same series price I got 'em at, plus 140. I will be on the Pacers plus the points tomorrow night as well.
42:21
Um, and all, oh, and Ben, Ben Wilson of course, Clemson 40 to 1 to win the College World Series. 40 to 1 still available out there on Clemson, uh, to win the College World Series.
42:31
What were, what were Matt Grissom's preseason- I thought he was Clemson 40 to 1 was one of his calls preseason. No, he was, no, I don't... He was Virginia, he was Arkansas, and- Now I remember the little list...
42:43
yeah, there was a third. I was wondering though who told us Clemson 40 to 1 though, so you think it was Ben when we talked to him earlier in the year? It might have been Matt too. I, I can't remember now.
42:51
Timberwolves, uh, Ben is, is oppo. He's on the Timberwolves minus one and a half games in this series. So in other words, the T-Wolves to win this in six or better at four to one odds.
43:02
He's on Julius Randle to be the series points leader at 30 to 1. Remember, this is all about the price. Worth a shot here. And Isaiah Hartenstein, Hartenstein, series rebound leader at plus 285.
43:14
Let's make sure we pronounce that correctly. That is your gbank Best Bets of the Day courtesy of gbank, the official bank of VSiN. Get the gbank Visa Signature card today.
43:21
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43:26
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43:33
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43:47
Padres back in action today. Well, might as well win them all. That's right. See if we have a shot here in May. Just, just win them all. Yeah, that's all you gotta do. It's not that hard.
43:54
Go 11 and 0 the rest of the way, and then maybe, maybe we'll be in it 'cause right now, shh, don't look good.
44:01
It's what happens when your bullpen fails all of a sudden and you don't get any hits with runners in scoring position. I could go on. Have we ever asked Jake, like is he a, is he a big Padres fan?
44:10
I don't- 'Cause he's got the Padres hat... I think he's just doing that for, for me. But maybe not. Maybe he is a Padres fan. I thought I was wondering that after it was back to back weeks with it. I don't know.
44:18
Find out who our team is next month, and then we'll find out what hat he wears then. [laughs] That's a good point, yeah.
44:22
Uh, Stormy, the aforementioned Stormy Montone, and JVT, Jonathan Votolo, they're next with Money Moves right here at VSiN, the sports betting network. Enjoy. [upbeat music]
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