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May 21, 2024
A Numbers Game | May 21, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | May 21, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. [clears throat] All brought to you by DraftKings. Excuse me. Right here at Bar Canada, the dean's Gil Alexander.
0:21
It's Kelly Midland, producer number nine. Yeah. So much more than a producer. What's happening? Not much, man. How you doing? Uh, I'm good, man. Drew Dincic on the show.
0:29
We're gonna talk NBA with him, tennis, um, Paul Sporer on baseball. Dan Bespers. Did you book Dan Bespers? Dan Bespers coming on. [clears throat] Host of the Old Man Squad Sports Network.
0:40
Oh, he's got a- He called his thing the Old Man Sports Squad? Yeah. Oh, okay. Cool. Got a whole new podcast network to talk to him about, talk to him about. Well, well, we'll ask him about that. Yeah.
0:48
And then a little later on in the show, I don't really necessarily tease stuff that Kelly and I randomly talk about before the show, but I walk in here and American Woman by Lenny Kravitz is playing, and Kelly goes, "Have we had the Lenny Kravitz talk?"
0:58
And I was like, "No, we have not, but maybe we should." That's later. Can't wait for that. Uh, I, I wanna... And we'll talk, uh, obviously, um, NBA primarily with Drew here coming up.
1:08
Um, I wanted to start the show today, because sometimes the day before we'll do a show, and you and I won't really harp on something while that show is happening or a point that we've made until after the show.
1:21
We'll be like, "You know what? That show, that, that point needs to be fleshed out more. That was actually a very good point."
1:25
So Samich and I, remember we had Samich on yesterday, Mike Samich, Sammo Bombing from The Handle, weekends here at the, uh, network with Matt Brown, noon Eastern, Saturday and Sunday.
1:35
We were talking about all kinds of sports. When we talked about the NFL, I sort of mentioned, 'cause he, he said something that triggered this in me, which is, you know, we get the...
1:44
We obviously know where the teams finish in the NFL, first, second, third, or fourth in their division, so we know who their opponents are going to be.
1:51
And then last week we have the schedule release which lets us know the sequencing of those teams that teams are playing, their, uh, aggregate opponents.
2:01
And we find out things like the Pittsburgh Steelers, which universally everybody seized on as, "Oh my God, we've never seen anything like this before," their last eight games of the season specifically.
2:10
Um, and that should trigger a bet, and it has for, for all of us on the under on their season win total. What happened though this year, and this is what I was alluding to with Samich yesterday, is
2:22
the NFL, and this is not something that has gone on for years. This is new this year. Now we have to talk about a third thing, which is that the NFL has completely abandoned any, abandoned any pretense of schedule
2:40
balance, schedule equity, because their number one priority is great- get the good games on primetime television and let the other stuff fall where it may.
2:53
Now, I said this to Samich yesterday, and we didn't really harp on it, and as it turns out, our old buddy Warren Sharp, uh, who has been on this show many, many times, we love Warren here, uh, he is the guru of schedule analysis.
3:07
Would you agree with that, that this is his time of year? Yeah, absolutely. No one breaks down a schedule, NFL schedule, like Warren Sharp.
3:13
Yep, him and then I, I, I think, I mean, obviously our, our off-season preview stuff here at VSiN I think is always great with everybody that contributes, and Cleve TA. Uh, Cleve TA- Cleve, of course...
3:22
the way he breaks down schedules is incredible too. Cleve, our buddy Cleve, who's awesome year-round. Yeah.
3:28
I would say this is Warren's moment, though, and, and I, I just want to say this, 'cause he's been on the show for a, for a long time. But
3:34
he goes through a bunch of stuff, and some of this is, uh, we need to harp on this more. And so let's just get to the macro stuff, which is the more general stuff, because he's done this every year, which is
3:44
net rest edges. So again, based on the schedule release from last week, what are the net rest edges aggregate for the entire year for teams?
3:53
And what that basically means is, uh, if a team off a Thursday night game is playing 10 days later on a Sunday, and they're playing a team that is coming off a Monday night game six days earlier than that Sunday, that is a plus four advantage for the team that played on the Thursday and a minus four for the team that played on the Monday.
4:09
You just add and subtract for the entire season based on that kind of, um, analysis with net rest. Total days of extra rest versus a team's opponent over the course of a season. So Baltimore
4:21
gets the best rest advantage for the season coming up in 2024. They are plus 16 when you do that exercise. Plus 16. All the way at the bottom is the San Francisco 49ers, who are minus 21
4:39
in net rest disadvantage. Now, Warren does that analysis every year, and we are the beneficiaries of doing it. A lot of us do it on our own as well, but Warren is first to put it out, and he notes that the 37-game
4:54
gap, that 37-game delta between the 16 plus for the Ravens and the minus 21 for the Niners, is the largest delta in the history of how long he's been analyzing this, certainly since the beginning of the century.
5:08
Now think about that, and he actually couched it this way too, and I think it's fascinating. The NFL season lasts from early September, the regular season, to early January. We're talking about four months.
5:20
That's a 37-day difference. That's more than a month of those four months- Yep, yep... difference between the aggregate edge of the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers. That's kind of mind-blowing.
5:38
So that's just the first thing, and you're like, "Okay, well, yeah, but there's been big disparities before. Maybe not 37, but there's been big disparities before." You're right. Okay. But that's just the first salvo.
5:47
I mean, is the, the, the, the, the common denominator though, I guess, with both of those being so, at, at such different opposite ends of the spectrum, like that is the... It's gotta be prime time games, right?
5:58
Because they're both involved in so many prime time games. Well, so this is the theme of this. The theme of this is that- The NFL continues to prioritize key matchups and big-time games for TV revenue.
6:11
Uh, as we'll get to later, there's also three games in ten days, four games in seventeen days. That is at a rate that has never been seen before.
6:18
And again, this comes down to, remember, I said this yesterday with Samich, the NFL, as we all know, has this big, had this big, you know, thrust of what they wanted to say was, "We are all about player safety."
6:33
They couldn't give a damn about player safety anymore. They don't care. It's Mike, Mike North, as Warren pointed out, the NFL's VP of broadcast planning, gave a, a talk about...
6:45
First of all, his job is making the schedule. What a job that is, right? They have basically sacrificed schedule equity for ratings. Here was his quote. "We try to maximize viewership."
6:55
Listen to the order of how he says this. Okay. "We try to maximize viewership, maximize fan interest, and minimize competitive inequities." It is noteworthy that that's the third thing on his list, because you know what?
7:07
It is the third thing on his list, and I would argue it's way down. It's not one, two, three. It's one, two, drop all the way down to three.
7:13
Let's just do some other macro ones, and we'll get to specificity in terms of which teams these apply to.
7:19
But the twenty twenty-four NFL schedule features a schedule in which there are one hundred and one games played out of two hundred and seventy-two.
7:26
There's two hundred and seventy-two total games in the NFL season, Kelly. One hundred and one of them, or thirty-seven percent of all NFL regular season games this year,
7:37
features a team with a rest advantage over their opponent. You're like, "Is that normal?" Nope, it's the most in NFL history. I was gonna say, "Wow, that sounds high." How about this?
7:46
There are sixty-six games played, again, out of two hundred and seventy-two, sixty-six games where one team has a three-plus day rest advantage over the other. That is also by far the most in NFL history.
8:01
All right, so now those are just, those are some macro stuff. Um, we'll, we'll extend this into a segment later after Drew- Yeah, yeah... 'cause there's a lot to get into here. But, um,
8:14
there is a team, let's start with this. There's a team with eight games where they have a rest disadvantage. Mm-hmm. We just went over who that, who that would be. The Niners are minus twenty-one aggregate, right?
8:25
They have eight games out of seventeen, so nearly half the schedule, right? Basically half the schedule, where they have a rest disadvantage. That's the most games in a season in NFL history for any team ever.
8:38
And the Niners, if you break them down even further, right, the Niners are the specific off-the-edge anomaly. Week seven, so J- d- here's the thing.
8:46
From week seven on, the Niners play the NFL's number four most difficult schedule, according to Warren, talking about season win totals. But during that span, they're at a rest disadvantage in six of those eleven games.
8:57
Week seven versus Kansas City, Kansas City's coming off their bye. Week eight versus Dallas, Dallas is coming off their bye. Week eleven versus Seattle, Seattle's coming off their bye.
9:07
Week thirteen versus Buffalo, Buffalo's coming off their bye. Jeez. Week fourteen versus Chicago, Chicago coming off a mini bye that week.
9:15
And then week eighteen versus Arizona, when Arizona has extra rest with San Francisco coming off Monday Night Football. So just think about that alone.
9:23
I mean, like the-- yeah, like there's, there's rest advantages when you're li-- I, I mean, there's rest advantages when you're talking like Sunday, Monday Night Football situations.
9:31
And then there's r- and then there's a w- uh, the whole bye week. Like that's a, that's a totally different story, at least in my opinion. And to have so many of them- Yes... like that in such a short span.
9:40
That's insane. And, and just to give an idea, 'cause you're like, "Okay, is this real? Does rest really matter? Like I know we're talking about it. Does it really matter?"
9:46
Just to give you an idea from last year, uh, Kansas City Chiefs, who, I don't know if you know this, Kelly, they won the Super Bowl.
9:51
Um, the games where they had a rest deficit of two-plus days, they were two and three straight up. They were one and four against the spread.
9:59
All other games that they played, thirteen and two outright, twelve and three against the spread. Yep.
10:03
The Niners were two and two straight up, one and three against the spread when playing with a rest deficit of two-plus days.
10:09
They were nine and three in their other twelve regular season games, covering the spread fifty-eight percent of the time. That's the two best teams in the NFL.
10:16
Now, what we'll get to later, and we'll, and we'll name the teams, again, courtesy of Warren, and we'll talk about three, three games in ten days, four games in seventeen days, which again, are at an unprecedented rate in this upcoming season, and we will name the teams.
10:30
But you have seven games where the opponent has extra time, uh, this year where the opponent has extra time. Six games, there, there is, there are two teams that have seven games where the opponent has extra time.
10:44
We just named one of them, the Niners. Six ga- uh, six games where the opponent has extra time. Six-- uh, excuse me, four teams where the opponent has six games where the opponent has extra time.
10:56
Four teams apply to that. And then there's a team like the New England Patriots,
11:01
and I know they're bad at football, and we all expect them to be bad at football, but they have zero games with a rest disadvantage, just to give you the disparity of that kind of thing.
11:09
By the way, the Bengals and the Niners, let's throw the Bengals in there, both must play three short-week road games this year.
11:17
In the last two years, teams playing short-week road games have won forty-three percent of the time while covering the spread just forty-seven point six percent of the time.
11:25
We'll get into more specificity on the scheduling quirks, but again, a, a nod to Warren Sharp on these 'cause he did a great job.
11:30
And this is just sort of based on the comment I made to Samich yesterday, which is the NFL don't care anymore. And as bettors, we need to know which teams these apply to and might pull us off bets
11:43
maybe that we otherwise shouldn't have made earlier. We'll get into that coming up. Drew Dincic on the other side. NBA next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:00
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12:46
Ang. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Let's go, Alexander. It's, uh, Kelly Bilin. By the way, I have, um, every host, every guest on the network, every play that they have in every sport is at vsin.com/picks.
13:01
I have one in tennis today, and I guess they have rain in Strasbourg, Germany, because this was supposed to be played, uh- Rain season. I'm sorry? It's rain season. Is it, in Strasbourg? Ah.
13:13
[laughs] Uh, this is supposed to be played at 2:00 AM, uh, our time here Pacific, but she- they have yet to take the court. But I'm on Leila Fernandez this morning as a, uh, short dog. I got her at plus 113.
13:22
She's plus 110 right now. She's still playable. I got her as a short dog against, uh, Ludmilla Samsonova. Um, should be more coin flippy to me and, uh, maybe even the slightest edge to Leila here.
13:33
So I'm, I got, uh, keyed by Leila Fernandez, the Canadian, uh, as the play today at Strasbourg, and it should start, at least as the schedule, at least as the timing is here, maybe in the next 20 minutes, but I don't know.
13:44
We'll have to- That's what I was seeing as well... we'll have to check the weather. 15 minutes. Yeah. Se- uh, 7:30 Pacific time start.
13:49
That, of course, is on the run-up to second, uh, the, uh, tennis' rather second slam of the year, the Clay Court Slam at Roland Garros in Paris, which begins on Sunday our time.
14:00
Drew Dinsick joins us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Uh, you can follow him on Twitter at whale_capper.
14:04
He is the co-host of the Deep Dive podcast with Andy Molitor, and of course, NBC Sports Bet the Edge, which he does with, uh, his buddy Jake Croucher as well. He joins us now. How you doing? Oh, not too bad.
14:17
Uh, looking at my wounds from the, the NBA weekend, but, uh, I think I'm in, uh, I think I'm in fair company there.
14:23
I don't know that a ton of people knew that, uh, those two game sevens were gonna break that way, and- Oop... uh, I'm still not sure what happened.
14:31
Uh, we set an all-time record for the offensive efficiency in a game seven by the Pacers and, uh, an all-time comeback by the Timberwolves, uh, on the road against the defending champions.
14:41
I don't, uh, you know, I, I, I, uh, if you had told me the exact results and how they played out of both games the day before, I would've said- [laughs]... uh, "You're pulling my leg."
14:48
You're pulling my le- I said to Kelly yesterday, I said, "If I came to you before the playoffs and I said, 'Hey, you know what's gonna happen? The Nuggets are gonna get into a game seven on their home court, of course.
14:58
Uh, they're gonna be up 20 in the third quarter, and they're gonna gack it,' would you believe me?" Uh, y- you c- No. No... you couldn't possibly- [laughs]... come up with something more outlandish, and they did.
15:07
Yeah, yeah. Uh, and, you know, if, if you had set it up the other way, I would've said, "Okay, yeah. You know, you got the more experienced team. You're, they're on their home court.
15:15
Like, yeah, they, you know, they, they have the better, the best player. [laughs] Like, of course, they can come back from any deficit. You never count them out."
15:22
But, uh, for the Timberwolves to do it was even crazier, and, um, I don't know.
15:26
I mean, like, I, I, I th- uh, I'm still struggling to kind of put the pieces together of how they did this and how to rate them going forward.
15:33
Like, I'm c- like I'm not sure if I'm underrating the Timberwolves right now or not. Um, my series prices is pretty much spot on for, um, you know, for this Mavs-T Wolves series.
15:44
But, um, uh, you know, the, I guess ultimately the way that they were able to, uh, force y- you know, Jokic to be a shooter instead of a facilitator was the way that you s- that's how you stop, uh, the Nuggets, and, uh, I think just the disciplined rotational defense on the secondary pieces, particularly Aaron Gordon, uh, keeping him from being an offensive playmaker, um, was huge in the second half and, and in game seven and in totality for Aaron Gordon's, uh, you know, kind of muted contributions surely.
16:15
But, um, you know, it's, it's, uh, it's, it's, it was especially weird 'cause, you know, uh, Murray looked fine. Uh, he actually played a- Yeah... I thought a very good game.
16:26
Um, and when that happens and, you know, you have Jokic sh- playing 47 minutes, uh, it's, it's unusual to see the offense dry up like that for, uh, for the Nuggets.
16:36
I, I've always kind of been a little suspect of their defense being as good as their rating and, you know, their defense has always kind of held back their net rating really in the entirety of the Jokic era and, uh, and that was s- surely on display in the second half.
16:49
But, uh, yeah, crazy. They, uh, held the Timberwolves to 38 points in the first half and managed to lose the game seven is, is still is, it's shocking to me. Yeah.
16:57
Nugget- Nuggets, [clears throat] as I mentioned yesterday, uh, after the first three shots they took in the third quarter, went two of 13 the rest of the way in that third quarter, 12 of 36 the rest of the way in the game.
17:10
Uh, maybe if Michael Malone could adjust to the fact that they figured out the two-man game perhaps between Jokic and Murray, that would've been a start. Uh, where do you stand? You alluded to it.
17:19
Uh, sounds like you think it's priced correctly. T Wolves are minus four, uh, four-point favorites, I should say, in game one. That is tomorrow night.
17:27
And the series price on that, um, you have the T Wolves at about minus 185 now. So they keep taking money. That keeps creeping upwards. Plus 160 on the Mavs on the comeback
17:39
Yeah, I would, uh, I'm at Mavs buy point now at 160. My fair is minus 150, plus 150.
17:45
And, um, I give, uh, both of these teams a fair amount of credit for how well they've played on the road this se- y- year in the playoffs in particular. Um, I think that's noteworthy.
17:54
I mean, if you're able to overcome, uh, you know, whatever home court advantage is still manifest in today's NBA, um, particularly the T- T-Wolves being able to go into Denver, uh, which is historically the most significant playoff home field adva- you know, home court advantage and, and win three out of four games, um, you know, you get a ton of credit, uh, in terms of just being a, a road dog.
18:15
Uh, and, uh, my game prices are three and a half in, uh, Minnesota, uh, and I'm Mavericks minus one and a half in Dallas. Um, and I think, uh, that, you know, maths out to about minus 150, plus 150.
18:28
And, um, the idea that this is gonna be a short series either way, I would throw a serious objection to. Um, my, you know, baseline expectation is most likely this is Timberwolves in seven.
18:41
Second most likely this is Timberwolves in five, and then, you know, you get the Mavericks in six, Mavericks in seven, uh, as your next outcomes.
18:48
And, um, yeah, I think, I think we're in for a, a pretty g- uh, exciting series, and I think a lot of what, uh, really stands out effectively in, in, uh, what the Timberwolves do, um...
18:59
I mean, my, my biggest questions for this series are, uh, you know, Rudy Gobert was, is able to, you know, be a, a, a lockdown, you know, rim defender when asked.
19:10
But what really kind of makes him special as far as a defender is his ability to do more than that. But he also defend iso, also defend pick and roll.
19:17
Um, and I got a funny feeling that this is sort of a you take a little bit of his defensive versatility away, uh, because you, you really just, "Hey, you need to go defend the rim, and we need, uh, our other defensive players to be kind of, uh, you know, super stoppers on the wings."
19:33
Um, and that could be a little bit of a, a, you know, a tough ask. I think this game one total is probably the, the-- at least where I show the biggest edge. I kind of think 206 is absurd.
19:44
Um, my-- I have, again, turned way down on pace. I've turned down on offensive efficiency because of the playoffs, and I'm still at 211 here for what should be a fair total in game one.
19:54
Um, and so I think, uh, early in this series, I'm gonna be playing into these overs, and then, uh, hopefully there's a point, a pivot point where, you know, they start to solve each other defensively, and we'll get some late series unders, uh, to come through.
20:07
But, um, yeah, I think, uh, at price, I'm slightly into the Mavericks. I didn't know the 160s were available.
20:13
I just assumed I was never gonna get my number here, 'cause some of our sharp friends are really into the Mavericks in this series. So- Yeah... I didn't think this was gonna, I didn't think this was gonna drift.
20:21
Um, so I'm a little caught by surprise there. Um, but, uh, yeah. You mentioned, you mentioned you think it's gonna, it's not gonna be a short series.
20:26
Over five and a half games is-- I'm seeing as high as minus 197 shop around. Would you play that? No, I don't think so, actually. Let me pull up my number exactly.
20:36
But, uh, I'll-- I think I'm at minus 160 there for, uh... Oh, no, you said one minus 190? Well, that's what I'm looking at right now. But you gotta shop around, obviously. That's what the, that's what the fair is? Yeah.
20:45
No, I, I... That's pretty close to what my fair is. Let me pull up the, uh, the exact calc I got for you here. But, uh, you know, I, I'm, I'm, you know...
20:52
The, the fact that both of these teams can win on the road, um, may make it a little bit more chaotic, right?
20:58
Uh, I think, uh, um, you know, playing into, uh, the zigzag of, you know, road team wins and then is, you know,
21:07
incredibly favorably priced the next time out at home, uh, is probably gonna be a, an interesting way to attack this one.
21:12
But, um, yeah, my, uh, my Minnesota Mavericks over five and a half price is-- Actually it's only mi- yeah, minus 150, so I'm not there. Okay.
21:22
Um, I think, uh, uh, I do think it's still gonna be a pretty lengthy series, but, um- Pacers-Celts... you know, for me it- Yeah. Go-- I'm sorry. Finish your thought. Go ahead. I'm not-- Yeah.
21:31
I'm, I'm kinda out of the land big old prices game in the playoffs the way that my performance has gone. So there's a little of that.
21:38
Like, that little sentiment that you had at the end, though, I think, like, uh, there's-- that's pretty representative of a lot of people after what just happened, where I think a lot of people, maybe they're not verbalizing it this way.
21:48
I think this is the first words out of my mouth on the show yesterday is, like, it's okay to say, "I may not know anything anymore."
21:54
[laughs] Like, in this NBA playoffs, I may not know anything anymore, if I knew anything to begin with, right? 'Cause I was so all about the Nuggets.
22:01
By the way, we'll go, we'll talk Pacers-Celtics on the other side 'cause that's game one tonight in the Eastern Conference. I feel like I am one of the few who give the Pacers a puncher's chance here. Do you at all?
22:13
Uh, I do not. Uh, my series price is not close to 900. [laughs] Really? It is much, much higher. Okay. Um, my fair price in Boston is Celtics minus 13. I'm not even really accounting for the return of Porziņģis.
22:28
I'm assuming he will come back in the series at some point. But, um- The as-... I have the Celtics as meaningfully better. The assumption is game three, but you know how assumptions go.
22:37
Makes you regret things that you thought earlier, Kelly. Um, we'll talk about that. We'll flesh that out. See if Drew's playing anything in tennis today, French Open thoughts, and beyond.
22:46
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. Coming back. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. This segment of a numbers game is brought to you by ZYN nicotine pouches.
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23:21
Warning, this product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical. Back on our numbers game live from Bar Canada at the D, Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlin. Uh, ESPN over your shoulder, Kelly.
23:32
Still talking about the Knicks. Do they need someone with Brunson to win a title? They cannot get over the Knicks. Oh, go on.
23:40
Don't let me on that rant again from yesterday It's unbelievable Anything going on with the Lakers? [laughs] Anything going on with the Lakers or the... I don't know. They haven't updated that in six days.
23:48
The Jets maybe. Uh, Drew Dincic kind enough to join us for a second segment courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, @whale_cappri comes to us from his, uh, lair in Long Beach in the LBC.
23:58
By the way, uh, Drew, I'd be remiss if I didn't ask you, you didn't have Seize The Gray in the 149th Preakness Stakes, did you? Uh, no. [laughs] Not on my radar. Yeah. Um. Yeah. No, no. We have a Belmont thought?
24:09
I, I was too, too busy breaking down the, uh, the combine footage of Bronny James, you know, so I could be ready to, you know, to talk about the, you know, the important topics in sports. I, I didn't have Seize The Gray.
24:19
No. By the, by the way, can we talk about that? Have you seen these, you know, the, the, the Ben Fox, John Ewing, uh, Patrick Everson crowd? Mm-hmm.
24:27
They're all reporting from their s- from their sportsbook contacts that Bronny James to go number one is by far these books' biggest liability. Like, there is a 0% chance he goes number one, and yet- Yeah...
24:42
the average sports bettor keeps putting money in on him. Right. But I mean, that is the, that is... I mean, I think it's, I, I think, actually think this is an interesting topic.
24:50
Like, we've now hit the point in sports betting media where it's now widely talked about enough that the crossover from regular sports, sports fans, sports media entertainment, and now finding a betting market for it- Great point...
25:05
it's everybody thinking and thinking and hearing about Bronny James. They don't even look at what, who else is on the board or care to know who else is on the board. I'm gonna go bet that.
25:13
And this is as, as Stormy says in the promo, he goes, "And that's why we're here." Right? That's- [laughs]... that's the thing.
25:18
It's the, it's, you're right, the average sports fan, I'll use my buddy Tommy in DC, my oldest friend, right?
25:25
Loves sports, loves football more than anything, probably lets the Bronny James thing come in one ear, and he may not run and bet it, but he'll ask, "Hey, should I be betting Bronny number one?" Uh, no, you shouldn't.
25:37
But many people don't ask, right? Yep. It's f- uh, fascinating. Anyway, I'm sorry about the, uh, the aside, but you brought up Bronny there. Uh- No, there's an important lesson in here- Yes...
25:44
which is it's always best to be the book. It's always best to be the book. [laughs] Yes. You wanna be writing those bets.
25:49
You don't wanna be, you know, trying to fire into these markets and, you know, lose your edge at some point. But- Well, in life- Uh, yeah... in life number two, Drew, you can come back as a sportsbook. How about that?
25:58
Sportsbook director. It looks like- I, I got that. I've, I've had some conversations, believe me.
26:03
[laughs] I would, I'm, I'm sincerely wondering why I'm, uh, trying to grind and, and firing into some of these, uh, very, very, very, uh, difficult to beat markets and, and losing. It's, it's, uh, it's tough. Yeah.
26:15
Well, I know you've had a y- I know you've had a year. It will turn, as you know. Let, let's get through a few- I don't know, man. [laughs] It's like, "I don't, I don't know, Gil. It sounds optimistic."
26:24
[laughs] Hey, Olympics are coming up, all right? You killed the Olympics. All right, come on. No, the Olympics are coming up.
26:28
The last-- No, but, uh, yeah, the last, the last, like, sincere major win I had was Sinner Australian Open. It's been a while. Yeah. Uh, 2024 has been bad. Um, yeah. Okay.
26:37
Now, Drew, I'm gonna attempt something with you that is gonna be unprecedented. I'm gonna try to do rapid fire- Okay... sports with you, okay? Great. Uh, so we'll do, like, 45 seconds to a minute on all of these.
26:46
Belmont Stakes, not at Belmont, it's at Saratoga. Hmm. Any thoughts three weeks out, or a little more than two weeks out? Yeah, Sierra Leone. Sierra Leone. Sierra Leone's the best, best horse in the field.
26:55
If you can get a fixed odd price, I would just fire. Sierra Leone. All right. Not Nigeria. Borders on Nigeria. Sierra Leone. Okay. Um, tennis. Anything this week before the French Open? Are you playing anything today?
27:09
Hmm. Watching a lot of qualifiers and loving the atmosphere already for qualifying in Roland Garros. Wow. Like, they are really into it, which is, uh, you know, which is quite cool.
27:18
Um, I don't have anything, other than I have a, um, a Luciano Darderi- There you go... uh, right in, um... Is he playing Lyon? I think he's in Lyon. Uh, I like his path. I like that, uh, that's a soft field.
27:30
Um, interested to see what Djokovic does in Geneva, obviously.
27:34
Like, that's kind of the open question that everyone needs an answer to before we get to main draw of, uh, Roland Garros and kind of making some hard decisions there.
27:43
Um, still a little bit, uh, shocked that, uh, the top of the board looks like it looks on the, uh, men's side.
27:48
'Cause remember a week ago, you s- you proclaimed out loud that a week from now, which is right now, we thought we would have some withdrawals from the men's side, right?
27:57
We thought we'd have some of these guys say deuces already. We have not yet. Is, uh, Sinner is not confirmed? No, what I'm saying is you, you thought they would say, "We're out," by now.
28:08
Yeah, I think, I think Sinner might be, um, although he's, uh, looks like he has traveled. Yeah, he's traveling. He's traveling. Okay. All right. Well- We'll see... uh, yeah, there's been some conflicting stories there.
28:18
Uh, I guess, yeah, if all these guys play, that's one thing, but, uh, that ju- actually just makes it even better, 'cause, you know, if you, uh, the, uh, if they kind of occupy tho- those spots in the draw and keep the next, you know, class of guys from sliding up into the favorable paths, then, uh, then that's huge.
28:34
All right. So Drew and I, uh, and we're hoping to get Dan Weston as well, we're gonna do the Beating The Book French Open pod on Thursday after we do a numbers game. Very excited about that.
28:44
That will be post-draw, as they do the draw 2:00 PM Paris time in France on that day. Okay. Um, Kelly mentioned the Olympics. That's your thing. Do you have any Olympics insight for us here?
28:57
Uh, I mean, we are still a ways away, and we need a lot of qualifying to happen before we even know who's in the, uh, the big events for the swimming and the track. So I haven't, uh- Okay...
29:06
I haven't gotten involved to the point where I have any bets to be made at this point. But, uh, yeah, it's, uh, and, you know, the, the swimming in particular is setting up to be an all-timer.
29:15
We have some events on the women's side that, uh, are gonna be so closely contested between, uh, the US, Australia, Europe, and then the rest of the world, uh, that, uh, yeah, we're gonna see some all-time swims. Okay.
29:27
All-time swims coming up. That's a, that's a good teaser for them. I don't know what Drew's waiting for. I got my 200 meter, uh, uh, butterfly guys already power ranked. Do you? Yeah.
29:34
[laughs] Well, that one's the, that's the, that one's been decided for a while, so. I stepped into that one On the show count. [laughs] He's just completely- Yeah, Hungary- True...
29:41
Hungary, Hungary has, uh, lock up one gold for Hungary in the men's 200 fly True. Kelly's just saying words, and you're like, "Actually, that one's taken."
29:48
[laughs] All right, back to the- That's the least interesting race of the whole meet. Yeah, Kelly's obviously, he knew that. [laughs] Uh, Pacers-Celtics begins tonight.
29:56
Now, you did mention, uh, that you have the Celtics priced even higher than they are. They're at $9, you got them at $12. Would you make a play? Yeah. They're laying 10 tonight. Would you make a play on this game?
30:09
Yeah, yeah, I, I, I've, I've, I'm max- I'm maxing to Celtics minus nine, uh, on the open. Oh. I was nowhere close to this number. Uh, I think it should be closer to 13.
30:20
Uh, and I think, uh, yeah, I just think the Celtics are... That it, you know, I'm, again, like I'm kind of going based on numbers here.
30:27
Um, I'm not kind of using any kind of witchcraft related to the Pacers coming off a game seven or, you know, inevitably cooling off now that they're up against a p- you know, a team that can play defense.
30:38
Um, you know, and, and I think, uh, um, you know, the, the number that really stands out between these two teams in this series is Indiana's defensive number against the Celtics' offensive number.
30:49
Um, the Celtics could, should, w- would, they'd be expected to score 130 in pretty much every game in this series, uh, if we get, uh, things playing out neutrally.
30:58
Uh, I, I really don't know how the, the Pacers defend the Celtics what- whatsoever in this series. Season series, Celtics beat them three out of five, correct? That gives you no pause? They played five times?
31:09
Yeah, I believe they played five. Yeah. Okay. 'Cause I think there was an in-play tournament game. Oh. No, yeah, I, I- Celtics 3-2 still...
31:15
yeah, uh, I'm I- I'm, I'm, I'm just, I'm looking at the, you know, the, the, uh, Celtics I think are b- even as m- you know, heavy favorites now to win the title, I think are still underrated.
31:26
Um, my fair price is for Celtics, Wolves, and Celtics, uh, Mavs, but they're both, you know, they're both screaming at me just, you know, bet more Celtics title. Like this is, uh- Wow...
31:38
this is, this, this to me looks like a short, sweet series for the Celtics. Keep everybody healthy. Get Porziņģis some reps.
31:45
Uh, and then be the rested team with home court advantage for the finals against, uh, whatever team emerges from, you know, a seven-game war. So, um- Wow... yeah, I think, uh, yeah, I, I'm, I, you know, I, I'm,
31:56
I need the Celtics to come through in the East pretty badly to, you know, close a hole in my book. Uh- [laughs]... but, uh, outside of that, I think, uh, it's still fair to lay prices on Celtics at this point.
32:06
I ad- I admire your confidence. I did take the Pacers in seven at 17 to 1, I made that bet. Um, just because I think they're the team that has the proverbial puncher's chance the way that they play.
32:16
Uh, whether that happens or not, I also proclaim that the Nuggets-T-Wolves series was the NBA finals to me.
32:22
And even though I was shocked at, uh, at the Nuggets gacking that lead, um, I'm of the mind, and I've said this now for a week, where I think, uh, there may be a reckoning of this whole Rudy Gobert trade, and that everybody's collectively, including myself, we're all gonna have to eat crow, that, uh, Tim Connelly knew exactly what he was doing.
32:42
It doesn't matter that he, that he made what appeared to be the worst trade ever, uh, in trading four first-rounders and a s- and a pick swap plus five players to get Gobert.
32:50
But in the end, if they win a championship, well, he did what he needed to do. And remember, he's the guy that built the Nuggets, and he's the guy that- Mm-hmm...
32:58
one would then extend the thought to would know what it would take to beat the Nuggets. We'll see.
33:03
You're not, uh, you're not in any way worried that the, uh, the Timberwolves cursed themselves by doing the Suns "We're gonna work out after our- [laughs]... our closeout game- Yes. [laughs]...
33:10
and take pictures of it and post about it? Yeah, no, I, that, that did creep into my mind, [laughs] I must, I must say. That was not a great move. All right, Drew, we're on record.
33:18
Uh, we'll talk to you Thursday, French Open pod, baby. Can't wait. Yes. Can't wait. Let's do it. Talk to you then. Drew Dincic, everybody, @whale_capper.
33:26
Courtesy again, [clears throat] pardon me, of the Progressive Guest Line. That's the Progressive Guest Line.
33:30
And again, the podcast that Drew co-hosts, Deep Dive with Andy Molitor, and of course, NBC Sports Bet the Edge with Jay Croucher. We're coming back. More of that Warren Sharp stuff, specific teams applied next.
33:42
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. We're so close to crowning an NBA champ and an NHL champ, by the way.
33:57
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34:08
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34:18
By the way, hockey's final four, if you will, uh, the conference finals are set after the Oilers hang on to a three to nothing lead yesterday.
34:25
They win it three to two against Vancouver, and they win game seven on the road. And so we got, uh, Edmonton and Dallas in the West. We got our- Late push by the Canucks last night, but couldn't get home That's correct.
34:38
Rangers and Panthers in the East. And, uh, most hockey folks feel like it will be a Panthers Stars Stanley Cup Final, but you know how that goes. By the way, it's, uh, Stanley Cup Final, singular. Yes.
34:50
NBA Finals, plural. That is correct. Just wanna point that out every year. Well, they're also, what it, it's also... The one that bothers me more actually is it's the Stanley Cup Playoffs, right?
35:02
The entirety of the playoffs are the Stanley Cup Playoffs. That's correct. Oh, uh, that bothers you because- Yeah. Oh. Just make it the Stanley Cup Final. Like it should be the Larry O'Brien Final?
35:13
R- uh, yeah, I don't know. It'd be weird. To me, it would be weird if they were like, "It's the Larry O'Brien Trophy Playoffs." [laughs] That's true. You're like, "What?" What? Uh, what sport is this? What?
35:24
Uh, we get tweets at Betting the Book. Always appreciate the feedback. Best listeners in the game. Trust the glove. Props to Mr. Sharp, but that was golden info. Uh, time on rest differentials. Thank you.
35:34
Uh, we got more coming up here. We'll s- we'll specify some teams that apply to some of these situations. Mike Rouse, "Can you please ask..." [laughs] Okay. I know.
35:43
See, I was trying to act like there was nobody over my shoulder during that Warren Sharp segment. Uh, but Mike Rouse says, "Can you please ask Rob Ryner to not stand directly behind you?"
35:51
Brian M said, uh, "The segment with, uh, Drew was easily stolen by the guy in pink over Gil's shoulder." Michael Burns, "I was hoping Kelly would come in with a bone-crushing tackle before the break." Yeah.
36:01
Whoever's, uh, friend, uh, was out there was watching. Uh- [laughs]... I, I hope you got your moment. I hope you got your moment, 'cause it was coming. Yeah, it was coming.
36:08
Uh, Brian Schaefer, "What tennis player did Drew like in Lyon? He said the path looks great for him." Uh, he was referring to Luciano Darderi, who's a great clay court player.
36:16
We've bet on him several times this year to success as well. Uh, Darderi was his play in, again, one of these run-ups to the French Open. These are always squirrely.
36:27
There's, there's a couple on the men's side, there's a couple on the women's side.
36:30
Um, the only 500 is the women's tournament in Strasbourg, which we're betting on with Fernandez today, and, uh, to success with Magda Linette yesterday as a plus 151 dog. Uh, the others are 250s.
36:41
And you always, as the week goes on and you get closer and closer, uh, if some of these players are going to play in Ro- at Roland Garros, then it gets a little funky with, uh, with bets.
36:52
So you want to, uh, sort of tread lightly, if you will. Um, okay, back to the Warren Sharp stuff.
36:58
Again, for those who missed it earlier, we were talking, uh, at the beginning of the show about how, you know, yesterday when I was talking to Mike Somich about this, I think the big thing that we wanna get across is that we know the team's opponents, that's the first part based on where they finish in the NFL, first, second, third or fourth in your division.
37:16
Then we have the schedule released last week like we do every year, where it's like, oh, wow, and then a look at the sequencing. Oh my God, the Pittsburgh Steelers play eight Super Bowl contenders down the stretch.
37:25
They are going to get roasted. Sorry, Mike Tomlin. Do you know Mike Tomlin has a record, by the way? He never has a... Um, so- He's won a fair amount of games. He has. I believe that's the streak.
37:34
[laughs] Mike Tomlin has won a fair amount of games streak may come to an end. Uh, and then the big thing is this year it changed. The NFL has completely... They didn't state this. They'll never state this.
37:46
They'll still act like they are really concerned about schedule equity, but in fact, they have placed such a priority now as the years have gone on, specifically this year, with
37:58
getting the right primetime game match-ups and getting those ratings. And by the way, uh, you know, what it was their deal with Netflix, $250 million, whatever it is, like, you understand. They follow the money.
38:10
Uh, this is why they do what they do. And so it's gotten to a point though this year where they don't care anymore. Player safety, player schmafety, they couldn't care less.
38:20
Let's talk about three games in 10 days, Kelly. But Gil, they changed the kickoff. Yeah, that's right. Before we get to three games in 10 days, how about the notion of a bye week, right?
38:30
The notion of a bye week is you expect that when you come off that bye week, you will probably have an advantage, right? Mm-hmm. All right. Six teams have their bye weeks negated.
38:42
Bengals, Chiefs, Colts, Buccaneers, Giants, Broncos. Meaning that when they come out of their bye week, they're also facing a team that has either the exact amount of rest or rest as well.
38:57
Yeah, that one I'm okay with though. That one you're okay with? Yeah. 'Cause it's gonna happen, right? Right, right. Yeah. You can't have it perfect.
39:01
But six weeks, uh, six teams with a bye week negated: Bengals, Chiefs, Colts, Buccaneers, Giants, Broncos. But like, in my opinion, schedule ba- like and this is, it's, it's...
39:11
I can't even imagine creating these schedules, right? Like, but like that's one of the things I actually think they should go into wi- like realizing it's a priority.
39:19
Like try to match up as many bye week teams with other bye week teams- Okay... so you don't have these rests. I don't, I don't have a horrible problem with how you're, how you're looking at it.
39:27
But again, remember, this is the year where 101, this is courtesy of Warren Sharp, 101 games played out of 272. 37% of games this year has one team with a rest advantage over their opponents, the most in NFL history.
39:41
66 games played where one team has a three-plus day rest advantage. That's the most in NFL history. How about this now? Three games in 10 days.
39:50
Kelly, there has been no instances in the last five years, the last five seasons, no team has played three games in 10 days. In the last 10 years, there's only been two instances of it.
40:03
Again, courtesy of our buddy Warren Sharp. How many times do you think it happens in 2024? I'll give you the answer. Nine. Happens nine times. Wow. Now, for four of these
40:16
instances, for four of these nine teams, it's unavoidable because we have the Wednesday Christmas quirk, right? Right.
40:25
So the Sunday, Saturday, Wednesday situation for Christmas, the Steelers, Ravens, Texans and Chiefs end up playing three games in 10 days.
40:35
Unavoidable though because of that Christmas Wednesday, and they made the decision to play on Christmas, and okay, it's gonna happen.
40:40
However, for five other teams it was completely avoidable, and it still happened in a Monday, Sunday, Thursday situation. Those teams are the Bengals, the Bears, the Seahawks, the Saints and the Cowboys.
40:53
We should all be noting these with a highlighter on our schedules. All right? So let me repeat that. Three games in 10 days. It's only happened twice in the last 10 years. It happens nine times for nine teams this year.
41:06
Four because of the Christmas thing, Steelers, Ravens, Texans, Chiefs. But five other teams has nothing to do with the Christmas thing. It's a Monday, Sunday, Thursday.
41:14
That's the Bengals, Bears, Seahawks, Saints and Cowboys. Um, by the way, you wanna know what does that mean then from a betting standpoint, 'cause that would be the right question to ask.
41:23
Since 1990, teams in their final game of a three-game stretch in 10 days have won five of 13 games, despite being favored by an average of 1.6 points in those games.
41:34
according to Warren, covered the spread in just four of those 13 games. Now how about four games in 17 days, Kelly? You wanna step it up? Sure. Um,
41:47
there are four games in 17 days that would occur with a Monday-Sunday, Sunday-Thursday sequence. Monday-Sunday, Sunday-Thursday. Uh, how many times has it happened in the last five years?
42:03
It's happened five times in the last five years. You know how many times it happens this year? Seven times this year alone. The seven teams impacted, by the way, obviously the most in NFL history.
42:13
The seven teams impacted by the four games in 17 days: Browns, Dolphins, Steelers, Falcons, Chiefs, Jets, Ravens. Let me repeat that. Browns, Dolphins, Steelers, Falcons, Chiefs, Jets, Ravens.
42:27
Now there is overlap, as we just talked about, with that Christmas stretch, right? So the Steelers, Chiefs, and Ravens, it's part of that Christmas game- Right, right... I believe. That's what I was just looking up.
42:36
Yes, they are. But that's not the case for the Browns, Dolphins, Falcons, and Jets- Oh my... who just by scheduling quirk end up with this four games in 17 days sequence. Yeah, yeah. So
42:48
bottom- Like halfway through when you were going through some of this, I was gonna be like, "Yeah, like this is a high point, but we're also unlikely to see something like this extreme again because of where Christmas is at."
42:59
But you're bringing- When it ain't just Christmas... but you're bringing up so many examples- Yeah... of teams that are not d- that don't, uh, play on Christmas.
43:04
They have completely, I'm talking about the schedule maker this year.
43:07
The NFL has completely, of course they'll never say this, they've completely decided, yeah, all that, like player safety, schedule equity, you know, balance stuff, like they couldn't care less.
43:18
They could not care less anymore. So bottom line in this, teams hurt most by the NFL schedule makers based on this kind of scheduling imbalance,
43:28
Bengals, Niners, we've talked about, Buccaneers, Colts, Broncos, when you do all the- Yeah... sequencing of it. Now- And then the teams helped the most, Titans, Patriots, Panthers, Vikings, Eagles.
43:42
Talking about net rest advantage, that they don't have to play three and 10 or four and 17, that kind of thing.
43:49
Okay, I'm gonna ask you something because we talked, we talked about this for a whole like 45 seconds last week. How much of this will impact season win total bets, any futures bets for you?
43:59
Which, which is a great question. I think it should, it should absolutely be factored into everybody's calculus on everything. Here's a way I would answer that.
44:08
I made a bet on the Bengals to win the AFC North, remember, back- Mm-hmm, yep. So did I, yep... at plus 175. I'm not sure after seeing this if I would have been so quick to have made it. I think it can take...
44:21
I don't think it nudges you over. I think it's one factor in everything. Yeah. But boy, it should be taking you off bets. I believe that. We'll come back. Lenny Kravitz, Paul Spohr, and more next.
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