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May 21, 2024
A Numbers Game | May 21, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 21, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the e-sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in this morning, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:17
It's Kelly Bidlin, everybody, live from Bar Canada, La Barrage, here at the D. Uh, still to come this hour, Paul Spohrer on baseball. Dan Bespres talk some NBA playoffs with us. Best audio in the biz.
0:30
Just 'cause he's, uh, started his own network doesn't mean his audio is any worse, right? Still great, I believe. [laughs] I would, I would assume not. I would assume so. [laughs] Okay.
0:37
Um, real quick, uh, let's get to some tweets here, and I want to finish that conversation about the NFL schedule- Yeah... 'cause I think you asked the right question at the end there. Uh, this is from, uh, B. Moriannon.
0:46
"Not quite as unknown," we get tweets by the way, be in the book, always appreciate it.
0:50
"Not quite as, uh, unknown, but equally mesmerizing as Mike Tomlin never having a losing season, you may not have heard," [laughs] oh, this is great, "the announcers for the Edmonton-Vancouver game wanted everyone to know the Canucks only had two Canadian-born players every other minute."
1:04
I did catch that. I watched that game last night. [laughs] Okay, I had it on a TV. Yeah. I don't think, I don't think I had the audio on for more than four minutes. I didn't know that, and I'm impressed.
1:13
I, I, okay, I'm the, I'm the audience member who, who's, who's glad they brought up that stat. That's amazing. I didn't know that. John Butigieg on the call. He's great. Mike s- They really bring it up that many times?
1:23
[laughs] According to Brian, yeah. That's great.
1:25
Mike stacks, "With the NFL and teams rest advantages or disadvantages, it seems like Survivor will have plenty of upsets, and this could be one of the hardest years ever for Circa Survivor." It'll certainly have upsets.
1:36
It does every year, but you're right, maybe so. Maybe that will even make it harder than ever.
1:40
Uh, and then New York Mess 18, "Gil, I did not hear you mention Jets for three games in 10 days, which is how they start the season, aside from the 4 and 17, which you did mention they have in October." My apologies.
1:52
Um, Jets are part of that as well. So I mean, there's all these kinds of quirks, and you asked the right question.
1:57
I think we'll wrap this up by saying this, 'cause I don't wanna belabor it anymore, but you asked the right question, which is, okay, and we've...
2:03
And I've tried to, as we're, you know, this is a kind of thing where you should have it color-coded, right, or you should know- Yep...
2:10
circled when these anomalies, and they're less and less of an anomaly is the point that we're making.
2:16
But when these, uh, circumstances happen in the NFL schedule, because it is something you should know for your handicapping. Now, is it the end all be all? It is not. It is one thing of many. It always is.
2:27
If it were that easy, we'd all be rich off this stuff, and it would be easy-peasy, and, you know, we'd all go, what's, what's the, Kent Beatrice in DC used to say? We'd all go live on an island with a tropical drink.
2:40
Um, but it's not that easy. It's just one element. And so you made a great point off air, which is, how do you, you, on air, you said, "Does it, does it affect your futures bets?"
2:51
I think the point you made off air was the even better one, which is for you, and I think this applies to most people, and I think it does for me too, it's more the week to week where it comes up for me. Mm-hmm.
3:03
Because do I regret my Bengals plus 175 to win the AFC North? I don't, 'cause I still think the Bengals are good enough in the collective of 17 games- Correct... to overcome such a thing, right?
3:16
Now, it's not like as beautiful as a 162 game baseball schedule, where the reason I love to make baseball season wins is because if your handicap is right, you will overcome negative variance. Obviously, with 17 games,
3:28
y- your margin- It's a little tighter. Yeah, it's tighter... your margin is much thinner. But no, I, I think you're right. I think it applies more in season for me. Yeah, I think it, it definitely does for me.
3:37
And, and now just, like, like you're talking about, I don't want to, I don't want to, I don't want this point to get lost, like, 'cause this is definitely, I go into the season for both pr- season prep work of looking at win totals and futures before we go into the season.
3:51
You're gathering all this information, right?
3:53
And then you're s- you're making sure to save it and highlight things week to week that you need to be aware of throughout the season from that preseason homework, like we're, like we're talking about right now.
4:04
I do think, I think you made the point of some of this stuff would more likely, more likely bring me off making a bet- Yeah...
4:13
than lead me to make, making one in, in a win total situation or something like that before the season.
4:19
But I, it's definitely stuff you gotta be aware of week to week, and as I'm, like, talking now, I'm realizing this is also, I guess, very similar to how I approach the NBA.
4:27
You know, the rest situations are something you take advantage of often- Right... throughout the we- throughout the course of the season, but you're not really adding those up before the season.
4:35
Right, and those I think are... Like, this is definitely new-ish. Yeah, correct. Right? 'Cause- 'Cause you keep adding more Thursdays and pre- Right... you know, prime time standalone games.
4:45
We, th- that's the difference, right? In the NBA, everybody knows when those four and- Mm-hmm, yep... seven days or whatever it is come up, right? Oh, they're playing a back-to-back four and six days or whatever.
4:54
Um, this is, it's getting worse. Like, these schedules are getting worse in terms of the inequity, and so that's just the point of all this, and again, a shout out to our buddy, uh, Warren on that.
5:06
Can we do, uh, we're gonna have Spohrer on baseball later. Um- And I'd like, like, like- Yeah, go ahead...
5:11
like I'd, I'd like to say, like, okay, the Christmas stuff is gonna be more of a one-off, and it will come back down, but I can't say that when they're going out and adding different media partners every year.
5:21
I mean, the more media partners you add, they're going to want their own prime time game or their own slot- That's right... which creates more of these situations. You are beholden to them. If you are- Yes...
5:32
if Netflix is paying you 250 million or whatever that number is, I believe it's 250 million, they have a right, right? Yeah. Y- th- they don't want, um, I'll use my, uh, commandeers. They don't want Washington- Right...
5:47
playing Carolina that night. Yeah, I'm not, I'm not buying the Jaguars season package, you know what I mean? Right. No, like I want a prime time game with good teams. Little Guardians update, 'cause it is May 21st.
5:58
Look at this, Kelly. The Guardians handicap. Guardians win last night. They, uh, beat the Mets three to one. Little interleague action in Cleveland, started a series with the Mets.
6:07
By the way, I'm, I'm betting the Guardians on a nightly basis with these, and it's- Are you serious? They make you so much money. It has nothing to do with the overall bet. [laughs] Right.
6:16
The overall bet this month on the Guardians, remember we lost the 65 to one in dramatic fashion, to say the least. This year- this month it was 16 to one.
6:24
I went right back to the Guardians well, because the schedule absolutely, from my handicap, dictated that I should. And here are the Guardians. They're in fifth place right now.
6:34
They're, uh, they're 12 and seven, and they got nine ballgames left. By the way, those are the games left in the month on the right-hand side. Um, I did it at Circa.
6:43
The only other shop that had it was William Hill Caesars. Circa has a tiebreaker of fewest wins if you end up with the most wins, followed by run differential. At, uh, William Hill Caesars, it is a dead heat situation.
6:55
Yankees lost last night. That was the sort of bigger development. Yankees were up on the Mariners four to one in the ninth, and Clay Holmes gacked it for the Yankees, and I was going nuts by myself. Just like, "Yes!"
7:09
Peop- even, even, it also occurred to me that even if there was an audience there, wonder, they would wonder, "Why are you so happy about this mid-May result?" Don't ask. Oh, yeah.
7:18
That, that was me at the bar celebrating when Jaden Daniels went number two, and everybody's like, "You a Commanders fan?" [laughs] I'm like, "No." No. Like, what, what town am I in? That's right.
7:26
How do people not have bets on these things? [laughs] I thought when I was, when I was rooting on the, on, uh, April 30th, the, um, the magic girl was like, "Oh, you're just rooting on your team." And I scared her.
7:33
I was like, "Yeah, that's what I'm doing." Yeah, sure, yeah, it doesn't- Uh, Phillies, Dodgers, Yankees, though, all have 14 wins. Uh, Phillies are at the top. Phillies won March, April. Remember that.
7:42
They won that with 20 wins. Everybody else, like the Guardians at 19. Phillies are in the, are in first place right now, 14 and three.
7:49
Dodgers and Yankees also have 14 wins, and then it's the Royals and our Guardians at 12 wins. So again, as well as the Guardians are doing, and again, the schedule gets easier as the month goes.
8:00
They're gonna have a lot more wins here. But will it be enough to topple the Phillies, Dodgers, and Yankees, who just refuse to lose baseball games? And even when the Yankees did yesterday- Yes...
8:11
it was in the most dramatic of fashion. So that's where we stand right there. Um, we're gonna have guests coming up. Do you wanna have the Lenny Kravitz conversation real quick here before we get to break?
8:19
Sure, yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay, we have to have this, because Kelly and I have to purge this from our... So I, I arrive here. We always talk about random things. Uh, yesterday it was EDC.
8:27
Uh, today it was, Kelly goes, "Did we have this conversation about Lenny Kravitz?" Because American Woman was playing here. And I said, "No, we didn't, but I've had, I think, what you're about to tell me."
8:36
So tell him, tell him, everybody what you said. Why is Lenny Kravitz so famous? Okay. So- I mean, that's the basic, uh, that's the basis of it... you, and you pondered this on your own.
8:46
Yeah, I was literally, I was in the car running errands like a couple weeks ago.
8:49
Another, you know, a song came on, and I don't know if it was American Woman, Fly Away, whatever, and I, and I, and I'm on the phone with my, a, a friend, and I brought it up and I'm like, "By the way, like, why is Lenny Kravitz so famous?"
9:00
[laughs] Is this like, is he... I know he's like, he's a very good-looking dude who's been around for a while. Like, I know that's a part of it, but like, is that all of it? What i- what is the answer?
9:12
So I- And I don't know, and it drives me nuts... in- independently, I had gone to a Lenny Kravitz show here at the, at The Chelsea, at the Cosmo about four years ago, my buddy Tommy and my buddy Ray.
9:21
And after the show, we spent at least an hour on this very subject. We're like, "All right, that was great and everything. Why is, where does he fit in the American cultural tapestry?" Right.
9:32
"How did he get to be so famous?" Because when we went through this off on a break, I can name you eight Lenny Kravitz songs, and then it falls off a cliff.
9:42
[laughs] So he's done just enough- And I'm shocked you can name that many. Yeah, I can name eight. And you could name eight if you heard him too. Okay. You'd be like, "Oh yeah, I know that song." Okay. But it's not 18.
9:53
Right. It's eight. And so he's done just enough over time, and he has a look. Now, Drew Dinsick, we talked to Drew Dinsick about this off air. Yes. Drew- This, and this is fair to bring up...
10:05
Drew's theory was that he wa- when he was younger, he came a- he came to the prominence at a time where it was like p- he was like the Prince alternative. It's like taking over for Prince.
10:16
Prince might have been a little too weird for some, but Lenny Kravitz was more palatable for some. Yeah. That's one theory. He also- I mean, music style, uh, it makes sense. I get it...
10:26
al- also, by the way, had a famous mom who was on The Jeffersons. Yep. Roxy Roker. Had a famous wife, the beautiful Lisa Bonet, no longer w- uh, married.
10:34
And a daughter, Zoë Kravitz, who's famous, so he comes from a famous family. [laughs] Right. There's like the kind of American history family there. Right. I, I know, and I know he's done some acting.
10:44
I feel like everybody's gonna tweet at us like these one little things. Here's the, right. But like, but, but when you combine all of that together- It's, it's fascinating. How did he become- It's fascinating to me.
10:52
Right. Yes. Yes. Like, I understand everything combined. It is a, it is a fair amount, but I still don't understand- Let me-... why he's that famous... let me conclude it this way. Who dislikes Lenny Kravitz? Nobody.
11:06
Good. That's a great point. Nobody. That's a great point. There is no negative reaction to Lenny Kravitz. There is no one sitting out there right now... Well, we're about to find out, I guess.
11:15
[laughs] But my guess is that there, [laughs] that there's nobody out there going, "I hate that guy." But, a- and Drew brought up how he was in, uh, uh- Hunger Games... Hunger Games. Yeah.
11:24
About how that, how he thought that spread it to a n- new generation. I don't buy that. I don't buy that. Yeah, I don't buy that either.
11:29
Like, I think he got a gig like that because he was already, uh, famous for some reason I don't understand. But he's just, th- there's a few others like this, right? Like Sade.
11:38
How is she, she so huge to one demographic but unknown to another? Neil Diamond in the other direction, right? Yep. Like half of society knows him, but the other half doesn't even know who he is. It's fascinating stuff.
11:48
We'll come back. Paul Sport coming up. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Have you checked out the new vsin.com?
12:03
Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides, and a quick glance today, Kelly, at the, uh, front page. WNBA best bets from Tyler Shoemaker.
12:13
JBT is all over the Pacers-Celtics series, which of course starts to, uh, starts tonight, and Kelly's got some, uh, Mackinnon trends coming up on this. That's right. Zachary Cohen on the NBA playoffs best bets.
12:24
JBT's also doing some, uh, first five inning bets in baseball. It's all there. Anything you could possibly want, tennis and beyond, at vsin.com. Adam Burke even talking NFL survivor pools already in May. I like it.
12:37
I like it a lot. Um- JBT and Zach's NBA write-ups are home runs- Secondly... ultimately. Yeah, like, seriously, they are, they, they are so good. All right. Conference finals begin tonight.
12:49
Pacers and Celtics at the Garden. Not the old Boston Garden, but the TD Garden. Um, you have some Steve Mackinnon trends from the website that you'd like to get into?
13:00
Yeah, a c- a couple had jumped out to me today I do- I did wanna, did wanna bring up 'cause I did think a couple of them were interesting.
13:05
Um, okay, seven of the last eight conference final game ones have gone over the total, producing 23, uh, 231.9 points per game sur- uh, surpassing posted totals by over 17 points per game. All right, let's stop that.
13:22
Yep. And let's ask a question. Do you think there's anything to that, or do you think that's random? I think it's... I, that's one I would not usually read into as much, but oh my gosh, is that a lot and over by a lot.
13:33
Say it again. Seven of eight over- Yeah... in game one of conference finals. The last four years, in other words. Yes. And those to- gone over the total by 17 points per game.
13:42
In a, and we're also in a postseason where we're seeing historic margin of victories in these games. Yeah.
13:49
I wonder- Uh, Drew brought up, and I, I just thought that note was interesting, especially since Drew liked the over tonight and didn't even really have it close by his numbers. By his numbers. Yeah. I,
13:59
I, as you know, I am not a trends guy by default, but I, I'll try to, I'll try to think through why that might be, and the- Right, you always try to explain. Yeah Is there an explanation? Is there an explanation?
14:10
The, and, and the one that I would come up with is that one team will have a much bigger rest advantage theme of the show- Right. Yep, yep, yep...
14:17
apparently, than the other, 'cause the other team will have grinded out a series while the other team had coasted, let's say. 'Cause you're talking about typically a number one seed will get there and maybe not a two.
14:28
Um, that maybe one team is gassed for game one, so maybe there is an explanation. A- a- and I will s- Yeah...
14:34
I will say coming out of the weekend, coming off of Sunday, first initial thoughts for game ones were overs and g- betting against the teams that just played in game sevens. So I, I, like it is- Yep...
14:46
you know, I'm not saying that, that, you know, it's kinda like what we just talked about, right? With the NFL schedule stuff. It needs to be a piece o- of a reason of why you're making a bet.
14:54
It ain't the end all, be all. It shouldn't be the entirety of it. Yeah. Um, zigzag theory, we haven't really talked about this a lot through, uh, through the NBA playoffs this year.
15:00
Gets brought up e- every year, uh, by everybody. Um, this note from Steve I thought was interesting. Conference finals last three years, okay?
15:10
Teams coming off outright losses are 22-16 straight up, 25 and 12 ATS in the 38 follow-up games. So it's just, it's one of those, I'm not a big subscriber to the zigzag theory.
15:24
I, like you said, there's always why does it... That's when it always makes sense to me.
15:28
Team A wins, Team B loses, it's always Team B that's gotta be like, "All right, well, we gotta go to the, back to the drawing board. What did we do wrong?"
15:36
Well, there's a- "What are we gonna throw at 'em differently next game?" There's also that, and then the market probably over-adjusts by a point or two, right?
15:43
That the, that the, the sentiment creates an over-adjustment in the next game's line. So I, I would say maybe in the past. I don't think you get that much anymore. Yeah, but this is what? This is just the recent history.
15:56
This is the last three years. Yeah. That's what I'm saying. I don't, I don't think, I don't think you're getting that as much anymore. Mm. 'Cause it, we do see zig, like zigzag built into numbers sometimes too.
16:03
I'm just trying to ex- I'm just trying to explain your trends theory. No, no, I hear you. I'm just trying to come up with a theory. I hear you. I thought those were interesting though. Yeah.
16:08
And at least worth mentioning, 'cause I do think, I didn't bet it, uh, but, like, initial reaction was, uh, and I'm sorry, uh, Drew was talking about over in the, the Mavericks-Timberwolves game. I did screw that up.
16:18
Not tonight, tomorrow night for that one. Yes. Um, but s- for me it was, I, I, I looked overs both in both those, uh, both the games.
16:26
I didn't play either one of 'em, but man, that's the only way I would go in game ones here. Um, tonight, uh, tonight I'm, I mean, I'm with Drew. I, th- uh, this is a tough ask by the Pacers coming off for, for game one.
16:39
Uh, I didn't lay, I didn't lay the full game. I did lay five and a half first half. Uh, Celtics have been w- the best first half ATS team all season. Uh, giving the, them the time to prep, sitting at home with this team.
16:51
Pacers just coming off that game seven on Sunday. I think it's gonna be tough for them to come out f- uh, you know, firing two, uh, on all cylinders right away. So I did lay the first half.
17:01
He brought up the t- total, team total over for Celtics. Seemed like a safe bet to me, too. That's 115 and a half. I liked that. Uh, we can go through everything in this series.
17:12
I mean, the biggest thing is these are two of the most efficient offenses going up against each other.
17:15
The big difference is it's one of the top defenses against one of the worst defenses, uh, in the NBA on the Indiana side.
17:22
And there, there's some of these things where you get, um, you know, like Pacers, best, their b- their, their strongest, uh, asset is what they can do in transition. Celtics have one of the best transition defenses.
17:33
So I'm, I'm still with, on the side more, more with you, Gil, of I think Pacers are still gonna win a game or two in this series.
17:40
But it's just 'cause they're so efficient offensively, I do think the shooting is gonna overwhelm the Celtics at some point when the Celtics probably have an off night as well.
17:48
The unanimity of the Celtics love troubles me. Like, I just, I don't know, and you might be right in the end. Maybe they do, maybe they do roll in this series. Maybe they do have an easy time of it. But I just-
18:02
The willingness to get back on the Celtics train at every turn is always fascinating to me. This, by the way, is from Michael Montesano. He says, uh, "Saw a potential price difference at DK with the Pacers and Celtics.
18:14
If anyone likes the Pacers plus two and a half games," so you're talking about getting it to at least six games, right? That line is plus 130.
18:24
Over five and a half games, which is also getting it to at least six games, is plus 145. So as we always say- Yep... not only shop from book to book. Thank you, Michael Montesano, for that.
18:36
Not only shop from book to book, but shop within the same book for different markets that are essentially saying the same thing.
18:42
Now, obviously, uh, the over five-and-a-half bet can lose if the Pacers or Celtics sweep or win in five, but just saying if anyone likes the Pacers, that's one way to look at it.
18:51
By the way, he also adds in a subsequent text, I should point out, "And Lenny Kravitz keeps himself in tip-top shape and just looks like the coolest dude you wanna hang out with." R- yeah. Uh, the, all facts.
19:00
That's a fact. [laughs] That's a fact. I would hang out with him right now. Yeah. So you, so you are... So what's your bet for tonight, for tonight in this game?
19:09
First half, Celtics laid, laid first half, uh, with the Celtics. I think a team total over on the Celtics is a good look, too. Um, that's...
19:16
I'd rather play that than lay, laying the full points just because, just 'cause the Pacers' offense is always gonna be a factor.
19:24
So I don't think there's gonna be many times I'm gonna be rushing to lay these huge numbers. I, I mean, J- like Drew is, a- and I did in the first half.
19:31
I mean, it's, it's first half versus full game, so can't make that big of an argument against it. But the... I, it just, it doesn't, it... Some of these big spreads got backdoor written all over it to me.
19:41
Like, this team could be down 20 easily- Of course... and shoot their way into covering, uh, i- late in the f- fourth quarter. Um, and then series-wise, I did bet, I bet Celtics in five. I'm,
19:52
I would say, I'll, I'll be... It's gonna end five or six. I'd be shocked if it was 4-0. I'd be shocked if it went seven. Okay. I got the, uh, S- Pacers in seven at 17 to 1.
20:03
Should I, uh, [laughs] 'cause we have guests coming up. Should I Ron Burgundy through all these tweets? This should be interesting. [laughs] Yeah, sure. Go ahead. I always like this. Putting on my Evel Knievel helmet.
20:11
Uh, we get tweets every now and then. Sam Ginsburg: "Uh, you need the players union in the NFL to get this done, but since it's, uh,
20:18
sure- since it surely brings in more money, and it doesn't matter if the Super Bowl is February 4th or February 24th, they should go to 20 weeks, 18 games, two byes- Ah... and one preseason game." Agreed.
20:28
"Give a bye the week before each team plays on a Thursday." Completely agree. Copy the CFL again. Uh, work in a couple, uh, bye weeks. I'm there. Uh, before we do, uh, go, so I know you're gonna go Lenny Kravitz.
20:38
Uh, the, the other one I think that with Pacers-Celtics with the series, I'm not, I'm laid five and a half for the first half tonight.
20:44
I don't think I'm gonna get involved very much with the side and the series, Gil, because I think it's gonna be a great live betting series. With these offenses and how potent they are, like- It's very potent...
20:51
I think it's gonna be a great live betting series. If you are watching, and you can isolate yourself from these games, it will be a great situation.
20:57
Jamie Leyva, uh, tuning in late today, and I hear, uh, Gil mention Lenny Kravitz and Paul Spohrer. Did not have that combination on the bingo card. Robert Busap, married Lisa Bonet. I said that. Mr.
21:07
Masterline, "I hate Lenny, LOL."
21:10
[laughs] James Sott, uh, "With all the Derby Preakness talk, when I see the Guardians graphic, I flash to horse racing and start yelling to myself, 'Come on, Biscuit,'" meaning the Guardians.
21:21
"Down the stretch they come." Chance Copperpot, "Lenny Kravitz, much better than Pearl Jam. His first album, Let Love Rule, was a classic." There you go. Okay. All right. You know Let Love Rule.
21:30
That's one of the eight songs. Uh, the numbers, guys. Eight songs? Eight? Are You Gonna Go My Way, American Woman, the one that goes something, something, something till it's over. [laughs] That's all I got.
21:40
What's up with these guys? Kravitz, meh. [laughs] Chris Heath, "Do you think Lenny Kravitz would be as popular if his name was Mike Smith?" Great question. Uh, great, yeah, yeah. Great question.
21:50
He, uh, Lenny Kravitz was part of the Dave Chappelle draft, wasn't he? Leaflet. [laughs] Yeah. Trip, Trip Tepper, "American Woman is a cover song." It is, by the way. "So I consider that a ding on his resume.
22:00
Kravitz feels like a music industry creation more than an artist who emerged organically. I've been confused by his popularity as well. He still built a hell of a career." And therefore, ergo the conversation.
22:10
I, I agree with all of that. Yeah. I, yeah. I think that was well-written. Doug Wedge, "Mama Said was even better." Got some Lenny Kravitz votes in there. We can go on and on with them.
22:19
[upbeat music] It's, it's an interesting thing, too, because you also made a great point, 'cause when I brought up Sade and, and Neil Diamond- Oh, yeah... they have their cult followings.
22:30
The answer to those is it's a cult following for their music. Lenny doesn't even have that. Like, d- does he that I just don't know about? I don't think he does.
22:39
I'm sure Paul Spohrer will have absolutely no opinion on this subject, but we'll talk to him about baseball on the other side. It's the Numbers Game at VSIN, the Sports Betting Network.
22:46
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSIN, the Sports Betting Network. So great. I asked Spohrer on the break what he thinks of Lenny Kravitz. He goes, "In what capacity?"
22:58
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23:11
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23:18
With VSIN Pro, you'll gain instant access to our daily best bets with the leaderboard to see which VSIN expert has the hot hand, betting splits to show you where the money and bets are moving for every game, betting systems, premium analysis, and 24/7 video access.
23:29
Visit vsin.com/subscribe today to claim your 14 months of VSIN Pro for only $199 with promo code ANG. It's spring sales time here at VSIN. Gil, we're slashing prices left and right. Two months for free.
23:44
Gotta use that promo code, though, ANG. A used car salesman, that's the man. That's vsin.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander, that's Kelly Bidlin slashing prices. Again, promo code ANG on that.
23:56
Uh, this gentleman joins us from Austin, Texas, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @Spohrer, S-P-O-R-E-R. His name is Paul Spohrer.
24:05
He works at FanGraphs, podcast is Sleeper and the Bust. What's happening, Paulie? Not too much, Gil. Thanks so much for having me on. Good to join y'all. Uh, great to, uh, see you as always.
24:14
We begin the segment by simply asking the question, give me an awards bet that you like right now. I'll tell you what, I'm, I'm kind of getting in on this, uh, Kyle Tucker for MVP situation. Oh.
24:28
Which, you know, like fifth or sixth off the board right now. You know, those odds have moved up, but not to a crazy point. I, I'm kind of selling myself on the idea that Houston might be able to make a run, too.
24:40
They're playing pretty well. Um, you know, th- they had a point here before this recent run where their record historically is one that you don't come back from.
24:49
And so they're still in a situation where, like, it's going to be tough, but they're getting their horses back, they're playing better. The offense has never really been the problem. It's been the pitching.
25:01
So if they make a big run, I know, you know, the narrative plays a bigger deal than it probably should. I'd rather it just be on the performance.
25:09
But you throw in the fact that Kyle Tucker's been amazing, and if they make the run and he's a huge part of it, I, I really like where he's at.
25:16
He's been an excellent player for quite some time, but I think he's finally kind of taking center stage this year with, uh, you know, Bregman kind of coming back down a little bit, Altuve maybe not at his best.
25:28
Alvarez, still a god, but Tucker's always been, kind of gotten short shrift there. So I love what he's been doing this year, Kyle Tucker. Well, a couple things.
25:35
You match with Mark Borchard, who said earlier this week he likes Kyle Tucker for American League MVP. Right now, DraftKings, uh, plus 850. Is that enough for you to bet him? Yeah, I think I could get there.
25:48
Uh, because again, that's, that's fifth on the board there. So, you know, it- it's gotten a lot shorter, but he's playing brilliantly.
25:54
I kind of am surprised that he's not, you know, behind Soto, like right behind Soto, but then you got Witt, Judge, Gunnar, and then there's Tucker.
26:02
Now, uh, those other three are fine, got no issues with them, but I'll take Tucker at plus 850, sure.
26:07
Now, the American League West is the division with the, uh, first place team that has the worst record among the first place teams, if you will. The Seattle Mariners are 26 and 22.
26:17
They have a two-game lead over the defending champion Texas Rangers. Houston is third. They're only five games back. They're 21 and 27. By the way, their run differential's minus eight.
26:26
They probably should be closer to 500 than 21 and 27. [laughs] Um, but I look at their American League West price, and it's not like you're getting anything, right? Because that's apparent to everybody.
26:37
It's only plus 260. You're not taking a shot at that, are you? No, no, no, no. No.
26:42
Like you said, it's obvious that they're still in the mix, that they're kind of hanging around, but we're not jumping on that with the team right now.
26:48
But they're just a team that I was close to ready to move on from, but now I've said, let's relax on that just because, like you said, the West has not run away and hidden from the Astros.
26:58
They've kind of kept them in it. So way to go, rest of the AL West. We could have buried the Astros, but no, you had to let them linger. Had to let them linger.
27:06
All right, so we're about 50 games into the Major League Baseball season, and we have a, a handful of teams, and when I say a handful, I mean exactly five, that are over the 30 game mark, uh, 30 win mark.
27:18
Yankees have 33 wins. Guardians have 31. Royals have 30. Phillies have 34, and the Dodgers have 33. One of those teams is very much not like the other in the Royals.
27:28
Maybe two of those teams in the Guardians and the Royals are not like the other three, the Phillies, the Yankees, and the Dodgers.
27:34
If I said to you right now, all right, that's a pace that would have them all over 100 wins, obviously. Um- Mm-hmm... how many of those actually get there? Two. Two, you said? Yeah, two.
27:50
I'll take, you know, the Dodgers is kind of the obvious one, and then probably one of the East teams. You're, you're probably right that the Guards and the Royals are the two that, that don't quite belong.
28:01
And you know, the Royals had some upstart love coming into the year from a lot of folks.
28:04
Uh, so I'm sure there's people out there pounding their chest saying, "Hey, hey, I, I was on this," and I, I believe that there's plenty of people that are on them pre-flop.
28:11
But you still look at that team and you're like, "This is a, this can be a playoff team, this Royals team, sure. Do I buy it as a 100 win ball club? I don't really see how it gets there." And then with Cleveland,
28:22
again, I think you could make a valid case for any of the AL Central teams to win it except for the White Sox at the beginning of the year. So there might have been some pre-flop, uh, Cleveland folks too.
28:31
Of course, you know, obviously you've had your, uh, your situation with them related to the first month. They're a good team, but they're not winning the way they've used to.
28:39
I look at that cl- club and I don't see 100 dubs. So yeah, I think, uh, the Dodgers and one of the East teams, the Yankees or Phillies, would be the two that are gonna reach it. Yeah.
28:47
By the way, just to be accurate, the Royals would be on pace for 99 wins, not exactly 100. So I just want to be clear on the math there. Uh, okay.
28:55
Uh, people can bet on lots of stuff, including the team that ends up with the fewest wins. We have a lot of folks who are guests on the show and who are listeners who have bets in this.
29:04
Right now, the White Sox have the fewest wins, uh, 14 and 34. Um, they also have the worst run differential in all of baseball at minus 106-- excuse me, minus 105, by, by a bit of margin.
29:17
However, they have pursuers, if you will, pursuers in quotes. Uh, the Rockies have 15 wins. The Marlins have 16 wins. The Angels have 19. The Athletics have 19. The Reds have 19.
29:29
So I mean, there's a bunch that are within, uh, you know, a f- a five iron away, if you will. Mm-hmm. Who do you think ends up as the worst team in all of baseball? I think it's still gonna be the White Sox, though.
29:40
Still? Um, yeah, 'cause they're gonna trade down everything, or trade everything that isn't nailed down, like everything. So
29:49
all those other teams don't necessarily have that incentive to get rid of everything that, that somewhat matters. I mean, I'm not even so sure that they should keep Garrett Crochet.
29:59
I'm not even sure he'll be around for the next good White Sox team. He's probably the one that kind of, uh, rises above being traded, though. But like, you know, Erick Fedde, been pitching pretty, pretty decently.
30:11
They've had a few hitters doing some things. There's no way Tommy Pham's gonna be sticking around. I think it's time for maybe, like, an Eloy, uh, to be shopped around.
30:19
Gavin Sheets been intending-- Like, these guys aren't even that, that great, but, like, everything's gonna be traded there. A lot of those other bad teams that you're talking about
30:27
They're not as incentivized to trade everything. I mean, take even a team like Oakland who, you know, just a week ago was like, hey, they're playing kind of decent ball. Yeah. Yeah. I was someone saying that.
30:36
Then they go out and lose an entire week, and well- [laughs]... that, that'll, that'll change your record. But I'm not even sure that they're, like, incentivized to trade, say, Brent Rooker necessarily, right?
30:44
He's a little bit of a late breakout, age 29, but now into a second great season. If he's on the White Sox, I think he's 100% gone. Being on the A's, I'm not so sure.
30:53
So I think just with the way the White Sox situation is, everything must go, and they will continue to be the worst team in baseball, in my opinion. All right. This is the most fun question of the segment.
31:03
People can still bet on it. I love that these are up at certain books throughout the season. Maybe not throughout the season, but they're certainly up still now.
31:09
The exactest, which I bet in the NL Central, one, two, I bet the Cubs, Brewers, one, two, at 14 to one odds- All right... before the season started. I'm gonna go through every division.
31:17
You tell me how it's gonna end, one, two. You ready for this? Yes. AL East. Go. It's gonna be Orioles, Yankees. Love it. AL Central. Gonna be Royals, Tigers. You heard me. Homer. AL West. Yep.
31:35
Um, it's gonna be Rangers, Astros, and that's so annoying. Yeah. NL East. This'll be interesting. Uh, the Braves will catch the Phillies, but it'll be Braves, Phillies. NL Central. I kind of, I like yours.
31:50
I, I, I'm, I'm a Brewers guy I would consider myself, but I like yours. I think Cubs, Brewers. I, I think the Brewers are happy to get in the dance, whereas I think the Cubs really want the division.
31:59
I think that little bit of difference there might make it a nice Cubs, Brewers there, uh, for the top two. All right. These are all bettable, by the way.
32:05
Not only exactest, but people can still bet one, two, three, fours in a lot of these divisions. Uh, and then the NL West, Dodgers and...? Uh, I think the D-backs can get back in it- Wow... but I'm gonna go Padres.
32:17
Padres. Yeah. No, I'm gonna go Dodgers, Padres. I do think the D-backs are lurking, uh, but I'm gonna go Dodgers, Padres. I'm gonna stick with what's go- what's there right now in the West. Yeah.
32:25
Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks all in a cluster in the middle of that division. Yes, sir. What's, what's the chalkiest option there? Do you, do you have one of them? Probably Braves, Phillies has to be.
32:34
Braves, Phillies? Yeah, gotta be. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Br- Braves, Phillies, and then may- W- is it Dodgers, Padres the next chalkiest, or because those other teams are so close? Yeah.
32:42
I, I, I don't think, I don't know if it's the next chalkiest or not. I'll have to check on that. But, but clearly Braves, Phillies. I would think Orioles, Yankees might have a shot at being the next- Yep...
32:50
actually as well. Real quick, DFS on the way out. What do you got today? Uh, well, I think we have, we have a game in Colorado. No, no, no, we don't. We do not.
32:57
It's actually Colorado is at Oakland, so, um, yeah, I haven't done a bunch of DFS yet today. I had an early meeting, so probably... And I'm still in on Kyle Bradish.
33:05
He hasn't really gone super deep yet, but his price is kind of down over at, at DraftKings. Um, I like Gavin Stone. He's a cheap Dodgers pitcher. He can try to get an easy win.
33:14
So I'm gonna go cheaper pitching and then kind of spread out my hitting. I don't have a ton of great DFS tips yet. Like I said, I haven't dove into the boards. Apologies on that one. No, no problem.
33:21
By the way, Rangers, Astros is also pretty chalky. The, the long shot is, of course, Paul putting in his, uh, Homer, Tigers in, uh, exacto there. Yeah.
33:29
They need some more offense, but I'm telling you, the pitch- the pitching can definitely do it. I am being a homer on that one. I will freely admit it, but if Cole Keith, Spencer Torkelson get going, they can do it.
33:38
You're a homer, but I still love you. Thank you, Paul. Take care, guys. Dan Bespers on the NBA next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
We're getting close to crowning an NBA champ, and with the action heating up on the court, it's even hotter at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA. New to DraftKings? Listen up to this.
34:03
N- new customers, that's new customers, get a no sweat bet up to 1,500 bucks. Just deposit at least five bucks and you'll get a bonus bet back equal to your first bet if it does not hit.
34:14
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now and use code VSin. The crown is yours. Gil Alexander, we get tweets at Beating The Book. Always appreciate the feedback.
34:22
JasonH11: "If Lenny Kravitz called a sushi place, could he get a reservation?" Yes. Yes, he could. [laughs] Uh, Jeff Holdorf: "Lenny Kravitz, meh. Clearly no Barry Manilow." Now there is a cult.
34:35
Barry Manilow's in town, Kelly. See, how about, like, that's another one. It's got the answer. By the way, have you seen Manilow in concert? No. You gots to go. Where, where- It's a gots to go situation.
34:45
Where's he at, Westgate? Westgate. Okay. Gots to go. He's always there, right? Pfft, I wouldn't know. Robert Busa: "African American rocks are great. Remember Living Color. Awesome band."
34:56
Can you name one rocker or group that wasn't great? Well, that's a different story. Uh, Coach Brian wants to know if we're gonna talk some college baseball conference tournament games this week.
35:05
Yeah, we'll get, uh, let's get Grissom on here. Yeah. Talk some of that. Uh, James Lloyd: "The worldwide leader got to the Lake Show finally. All we need is cowboy talk to complete the bingo card."
35:15
And Shine the Professor chiming in, "There's one guy who probably does not like Lenny Kravitz, Terence Trent D'Arby." Oh, I like this.
35:23
"Both were Prince-ish alternatives, but TTD was far superior, but couldn't follow up his great debut. Kravitz slid in, the rest is history." That's an interesting theory. Are you, uh- Oh, okay...
35:32
at, at your tender age of, uh, 17 years old, Kelly, are, do you remember Terence Trent D'Arby? No, not at all. Sign Your Name, Wishing Well. He was a monster.
35:42
Like, there was a moment in time where people thought this guy was going to be the next Prince. What are we talking, like 1991? Correct. Exactly, I think, 1991. Somewhere around there, or late '80s maybe.
35:53
Late '80s, early '90s. I can't remember exactly the year. But he ended up changing his name, by the way, to Sananda Maitreya, and he actually had some great jams that way, but they were so obscure that no one even- Yeah.
36:05
I, I don't even know- Yeah... who that is. Oh, he's phen- he was a phenomenal talent. It's an interesting theory.
36:09
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, this is always a monster day when we're able to book the great Dan Bespers on the show, because that means his kids are behaving. Dan Bespers joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
36:21
And Dan, as I, uh, first of all, I want to say hello, but I look at your, at your byline now, and it says, "Founder and host of the Old Man Squad Sports Network."
36:30
And of course, you can follow Dan at Dan Bespers, B-E-S-P-E-R-S. What, uh, what ha- happened?
36:37
Well, you know, I got tired, honestly, Gil, of you asking [laughs] how long it was, I was gonna be the assistant GM at my previous job. That sports 11. Yeah. Yeah. [laughs] Yeah.
36:47
Uh, this is just an opportunity for me to go do something on my own. I thought it would be a lot of fun. So far it really has been. A lot of folks have reached out to be a part of it.
36:55
Um, it's just an opportunity for me to focus on broadcasting, podcasting, that side of an operation, which is always kind of, you know, has been my passion. Yes.
37:05
And so now I can just yell into the ether for a few extra hours every day. 'Cause what could go wrong with that, right? More broadcasting from Dan Bespres makes for a better broadcasting world. I really mean that, man.
37:15
Thank you. I'm, I'm glad to hear that about you. Okay. That said, you have been watching the NBA. Were you as stunned by the results this past Sunday as everybody else? Uh, the Minnesota and Denver game, yes.
37:29
The Indy and New York game, not as much. Yeah. I mean, New York was down, what, the entire starting lineup by the end of that. That, the, the war of attrition was lost.
37:39
I was g- frankly, pretty impressed that the Knicks continued fighting as long as they did.
37:45
They simply had to play their five g- best guys 48 minutes every ballgame, and you kinda knew that eventually that was gonna catch up to them. You hoped it wouldn't be so soon, I guess.
37:55
But, uh, that one not so surprising.
37:57
Minnesota winning in Denver on the road with a second half altitude comeback, that was very impressive, and I wish that I could say that I saw that coming 'cause then I'd be the damn smartest person in the room, but I did not.
38:11
But you may recall that before the season started, I did come on this show and say that I liked Minnesota a lot more. I also said I didn't think the Thunder were as good as they were, so I gotta take the hit on that one.
38:21
But, uh, I was pretty high on the Wolves at the start of the season, and this still way, way better than I could have ever expected. All right, let's start with these exactas. Kelly, I want you to chime in as well.
38:30
These are the eight combinations. We'll do it from long shot to short shot. Pacers to beat the Mavericks, 55 to one. Pacers to beat the T-Wolves 45 to one. Mavs to beat the Pacers, 25 to one.
38:41
T-Wolves to beat the Pacers, 15 to one. Now we get to the shorter ones. Mavs to beat the Celtics, plus 750. T-Wolves to beat the Celtics, plus 370. And Celtics to beat the Mavs, plus 240.
38:52
And the shortest of them all, Celtics to beat the T-Wolves, plus 150. Give me your best one, Dan. If you had to bet one, what would you bet? Oof. That's a tough one. Um, how about Celtics to beat the Mavs at plus 240?
39:07
I just, I can't see the Pacers beating the Celtics, so I've just wiped those off the bingo card here. Um, so assuming- Me too...
39:14
I put the Celtics in the finals, then you're looking at just the top four, which I know is not as exciting as the bottom four. Uh, and then you're thinking, okay, can anybody beat the Celtics?
39:23
I guess you could take Wolves to beat the Celtics at pl- plus 370 is kind of like the second choice there.
39:28
So option two and option three on the board are the two that I w- would look at if you're ignoring, can you call it chalk at plus 150? I guess that's, I don't know. I'm trying not to pick the favorite of them.
39:39
Is that fair? No. No, that's fair. I, I do have the Pacers in seven. I made a long shot bet on that in this series. But I would say T-Wolves to beat the Celtics, plus 370. Yeah. Kelly By-D-L-O-N, what do you got?
39:51
Um, yeah. One, one of those two. But I, I, I mean, I'm hoping, I hope it's the s- uh, Mavericks and Celtics though- Right... 'cause I got Mavericks bets, so. You'll take Mavericks to beat anybody.
40:00
That's your- Yes, I would. Okay. I'll still take Mavericks to beat anybody. [laughs] You said you don't, you said you don't, you don't, it sounded like you don't give the Pacers a shot here at all. Is there any bet?
40:10
I'd, I can't.
40:11
I, I, I like the Pacers just sort of like, the only way you're hoping they go through, and Gil, I know you said in seven, is if the Celtics do a Celtics thing and kinda take their foot off the gas for too long.
40:22
I just can't see that happening against a team that's not as gritty as the kinda clubs that can exploit that with Boston. Now, Porziņģis being out is a factor, but I still think the Celks- Celtics could overcome that.
40:34
I... And plus the Pacers just went seven. You've got that thing looming over it, and I, I'm trying not to go too far on tangential thoughts here. I, I, I- Would, would you lay 10 on the Celtics tonight?
40:45
Or would you stay- No... stay, stay away from that as well? Probably a stay away. Yeah. I'm probably more inclined to look at, uh, Dallas in game one if you're gonna sort of fade a team coming off a game seven.
40:55
So Dallas plus the points you like. That one. Of the two game ones, and if I'm looking to try to take a position against a team that went seven, I'd prefer Mavericks over Pacers in game one.
41:07
Although, uh, or over, uh, Celtics, excuse me, in game one, just 'cause laying 10 is, is a truckload in the playoffs in particular.
41:15
Do you like the Mavericks in that series against the T-Wolves or you still like the T-Wolves?
41:21
See, now that's where I, I, I spent like 35 minutes last night stewing in bed, my heart racing, 'cause I was like, "I know we're gonna talk about this on the show tomorrow, and I don't have a strong [laughs] opinion on it."
41:32
Finally, I ultimately fell asleep because life was very exhausting.
41:36
[laughs] But, uh, yes, I think I still lean p- Timberwolves for the series even though I think the Mavericks have a really good shot to get game one or at least keep it real tight.
41:46
Um, I just think the Wolves from a matchup standpoint, I, I, I didn't know the Wolves had the, the horses to match up with Denver as well as they did defensively.
41:54
I think the Mavericks pose different challenges, but, and I, I hate to say this word, but I think from a defensive standpoint they're slightly easier challenges just because of the way their offense operates.
42:05
There are fewer things to think about when you're guarding the Mavericks as opposed to guarding the Nuggets.
42:11
And, uh, you know, I, this is a little bit of a remedial way to handicap it, but if the Wolves can, can appropriately strategize for a Jokić-led offense, I think they can do it for a Luka-led offense as well.
42:23
I, I think that is very well said, and that is why I believe that that last series, and I said it during the series, the Nuggets-T-Wolves to me was the NBA finals. And I really- Yeah...
42:33
think the Timberwolves, the, the reason to me that the Celtics are the short shot is because they play the Pacers, right? Yes. Absolutely. And because that's why.
42:43
It's not because they're, to me, it's not because they're better than the T-Wolves if you put them out on the court. As currently constituted, Porziņģis obviously changes that. But I, I agree with what you said.
42:52
To me, this ought to be, and obviously Luka's gonna, gonna have a say in this. Yeah. [laughs] Luka and Kyrie will both have a say in this. But this ought to be,
43:02
at least when you look at it that way, an easier proposition. Now, easier said than done obviously because basketball is basketball, but I like where you're thinking on that anyway. Yeah.
43:13
I mean, if Luka gets nuts, then anything is possible, and he has been known to do that from time to time.
43:19
But I'm just thinking from a s- from a game planning standpoint, he's a wizard passing wise, but they don't move the way that the Nuggets do.
43:27
And the Wolves somehow, I have no idea how they did it, game planned for the Nuggets, and they ran it, and they were effective, and they shut them down.
43:36
I, like, the, the stat that the Nuggets scored under 100 points a dozen times all year and half of those were against the Wolves I thought said everything about how good defensively Minnesota is.
43:45
So yes, I still think they win the series even if I think game one probably the hardest game for them.
43:52
The way they sneak by is because the Mavs have actually been historically bad in game ones under Jason Kidd, so hey, you know, the scales of justice.
44:00
But, uh, you guys know me, I like to look for opportunities to fade teams off a seven-game series, and that would be the side I look of the two remaining. I, I'm with Dan for game one though.
44:09
Like, I think that's, I like Mavericks game one. I, I think they've got, that's their best shot to win one in Minnesota. We shall see. That is tomorrow night, Pacers and Celtics game one.
44:17
Tonight, Dano, founder and host of the Old Man Squad Sports Network, his new podcast network. Congrats, man. Looking forward to it. Thank you, guys. @DanBespres for all the information there.
44:27
GoJoe and Golic next on the radio. Best Bets next on the TV side. Enjoy from VSiN, the sports betting network.
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