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May 21, 2025
A Numbers Game | May 21, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 21, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a numbers game at VSiN, the e-sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Midland.
0:20
Thank God for Darnell back there, you know? We gotta, guys, if you wanna know what happens in between segments here on the break, we have a big dilemma. You see, Fezzik is usually here on Fridays, okay?
0:30
[laughs] Follow me now. This is very complicated. We are, we are really going behind the scenes here, yeah. Fezzik usually comes on Fridays, so we have these packages, right, the video, right? And that is Fezzik Fridays.
0:39
But he's gonna be on a Wednesday, right? He's, he's gonna be here momentarily, so it's really, we can't do the Fezzik Friday stuff on a Wednesday.
0:46
You would not believe the chaos that is happening here trying to delete the way, the word Fridays in creative ways. Yeah, we're just, uh- Yeah... we're tr- we're trying some workarounds, okay? Oh, oh.
0:55
Got a creative crew back there that came up with some great ideas. And I'm j- And we'll see how it goes. And all I'm like is, "What do I need to know?" Yeah, yeah, you wait. We're still figuring that out, okay?
1:03
[laughs] Uh, we hit tweets at Beating The Book. "OPS+ is for commies." Oh, let's see if you like this one, uh, Kelly.
1:10
In his last four games versus the Pacers, going back to his T-Wolves days, Cat has 40, 30, 21, and 40 against the Indiana Pacers. He's put up 40 against them three times.
1:21
The over 22 and a half points minus 114 is a play, he says. What do you think about that? Uh, agreed. Agree. I expect to see a lot of Cat early and often.
1:30
I think the big question, a- and I think it will be, I think he'll be successful.
1:33
I think the, you're gonna see a lot of differences this time around with the Knicks and how they operate offense, and it's going to be a lot of, uh, we talk about the value of a pick and pop with Cat, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Jalen Brunson.
1:44
Yeah, I think you're gonna see a lot of rim, uh, rim attacking from Cat. So I, I like the over on his points. I might actually end up on that prop myself. [laughs] The, the question I have for JVT though, Gil- Yeah...
1:55
is the problem with Karl-Anthony Towns, in my opinion, i- is do we know the talent level's there? It's, it's consistency.
2:01
Can you do this over the course of a series for four games and get, and deliver a victory for your team? Or is your team gonna have to fall back on relying on Jalen Brunson magic like it constantly does time after time?
2:12
Have you been following the, uh, the Cat stuff, the videos that people are making on Instagram and TikTok about him complaining for fouls? Yes. It was, oh my God, are they funny.
2:20
There is, uh, there are so many good ones out there. So great. [laughs] James- The guy that re- the guys that redo, uh, First Take or whatever, that one cracks me up too. Oh, that one I didn't see. Oh, yeah.
2:29
James Sott, "Need behind the scenes with Kelly in a commercial like you guys did the behind the scenes with Stormy long ago. Those crack me up.
2:36
So Kelly in a top hat dancing would be fabulous, or just trying to pronounce random tennis players' names would be awesome as well." Hey, I save that magic for on air, okay?
2:44
Uh, by the way, Stormy, best actress on any of our commercials, the one where she does with Dave Ross where she says, "Dave, I'm busy," that, that, that's the best one. You don't have- That's the most powerful one...
2:52
I don't think there's a ton of the competition, but yeah. Yeah. [laughs] And the nominees are Kelly nodding aggressively at the D.
3:01
[laughs] Uh, Rules for Society, Nick says, "Jason was obsessed with the gorilla losing to Chris Sale and 99 other pitchers throwing rocks as if rocks aren't weapons." Yes, that was more accurate.
3:12
[laughs] It wasn't really 100 men versus a gorilla. It was 100 skillful relief and starting pitchers for Jason. You know what? I, I'll just- Jason, we can't use weapons, and then he just doubles down on it.
3:21
You, obviously I got a lot of, there was a lot of, uh, comments on the way that I thought that fight would go down. Jason made me feel a lot better, a lot, or a lot more sane because he thought this out way deeper.
3:33
Starting pitchers with- Jason made you feel s- saner? Is that what just happened there? Yeah, 'cause he, 'cause his plans were even more outlandish than mine. Jason made you feel saner? Yes. Okay. [laughs] Just curious.
3:43
Just wanna- Yes... just wanna drive home the point. Yeah. Ronnie Roach, "What really, uh, what is really shows me," oh, he's talking about the Orioles and the Rockies.
3:49
He says, "The Orioles deserve to be the worst on this list."
3:52
Oh, oh, John Ewing from MGM put up a, uh, tweet about the m- the best and worst money line teams in Major League Baseball this season, which is what Borchardt and I went over in our podcast, the Beating The Book Q1 derivatives show the other day.
4:03
And what, what, uh, what was shown is that even, you know, with the Orioles being down 19 units, let's say you bet the Orioles every single day this year.
4:12
By the way, you'd be betting baseball incorrectly if you did that. But let's just say you went through the bizarro exercise that you bet the Orioles to win in all of their games this year. You'd be down 19 units.
4:22
And what the, the point that is being made here is that the Orioles were going to have, would ha- would've been favored in many of those games. So that's why you would be hemorrhaging money.
4:31
The Rockies, though, would always be a dog, basically. I don't know, like I don't know how many times this year they've been a favorite. They're, and they're down 25 units.
4:39
So if you went through the bizarro exercise that you were betting the Rockies to win every single game thus far this year, and by the way, again, you're doing it wrong if you're doing that, um, that's the point that he's making, that even as a dog every single time out, they still go way past the Orioles in hemorrhaging money.
4:55
Uh, Money Capperletti, "The 10 lineman tweet reminded me of a ch- of childhood friends, of a childhood friend's dad always saying, 'What's stopping an NHL f-'" [laughs]
5:05
Kelly, you and I might be this guy's childhood friend's dad. All right, good. He says, "What's stopping an NHL team from signing a really fat goalie?" I mean, come on. [laughs] Who amongst us hasn't said that?
5:15
Realistically, I think they still sneak with great success as many others already do. Um, again, we have no official banning yet, though, right? Not yet. Just to be clear. Not yet.
5:22
Uh, three Jack, H3131, "Gil, should the plan for baseball wins in June be to hammer the Padres?" Yes. Clearly this should be the plan.
5:29
Uh, even though they only have 10 home games, that would make the most baseball [laughs] sense, I believe. If the Padres win June, again, we don't know who we're gonna pick, uh, who we're gonna pick in this.
5:39
Uh, Teasers and Parlays, "New ideas for the VSiN plus plus plus subscription, Kelly tap dancing during commercial breaks, and a behind the scenes with Savannah and crew frantically changing graphics."
5:48
I, I agree with that completely.
5:49
Yeah, if you really wanna spice it up is you could get the very annoyed looks on, uh, Savannah and others back there while I'm tap dancing in the control room, 'cause that would not bother them at all.
5:58
Hack Jones, "The system is rigged. Tell the bettors they can only bet at the legals, but the legals won't take a bet, all the while trying to kick the offshores out, basically making it so the winners have nowhere to go.
6:06
It's great This is, this just goes back to that- Hack... ESPN bet tweet we were on yesterday. Yeah, hack. Trust me, you're speaking our language.
6:13
And, uh, tailgate sports, if we believe that the tush push is gonzo, it's hard not to consider Saquon over 10 and a half rushing touchdowns minus 130 on Caesars, or over 11 and a half at DraftKings.
6:22
This is what we were talking about earlier. Yeah, yeah. The, uh, you know the one tweet, uh, from last segment I was kinda still cracking up about?
6:28
I think it was a little bit of a dig from an Eagles fan, right, of the, uh, uh, talking about the aesthetically pleasing angle of the tush push, and oh yeah, like the quarterback sneak is all that much better.
6:38
That's so, that is a good point. I'm sorry, that's a good point. Yeah, but they, they don't employ that nearly as often. Yeah, but his point is that any other team could do that.
6:49
They, or they do that, and the Eagles are just gonna go back to a regular quarterback sneak. Do we really think that is- No, that's a-... so much more pleasing to the eye?
6:55
No, that's a great counterargument to the aesthetically pleasing part, but it is not a great counterargument to the real argument, which is, hey, it's the pushing the other players part.
7:03
If you, if the offense gets to do it, the defense ought to be able to do it, too. But if you can't, then you can't on the other side either. Totes. Totes mageotes. Totes.
7:11
Uh, let's talk a little Charles Schwab Challenge with Kelly Midlet, everybody. You saying- Tap dancing... you saying it's, uh, time to go clubbing? It's, oh, we be clubbing? Is that, is that, is that what you're saying?
7:21
Time to go country clubbing. [upbeat country music] I love how the music doesn't start until I say those words. [singing] Might've been a little tap dancing right there, man.
7:33
[laughs] We should really have the camera back on those guys. Yeah, I do. I, I need a camera, or I'll just, like, stream live on, uh, Skype or s- no, Skype's dead, sorry. Sure. Charles Skype. Charles, uh, RIP Skype?
7:45
Yeah, RIP Skype. I think it's officially gone now, right? Can I tell you again, so can I, we, we should have, like, five, five seconds of RIP Skype. Yeah.
7:52
I did maybe 1,000 podcasts, you were lucky if I was wearing pants, using Skype on my computer. You're lucky if I'm wearing pants right now. Yeah, exactly.
8:01
Using, using Skype to do all my old betting dork Beating the Book podcasts before, you know, we did them in a fancy studio, and I used Skype.
8:09
And Skype, every, sure, every 100 or so podcasts, Skype would mysteriously, the settings would change, and it would drive me crazy. And I'd be like, "I don't know how to fix this," while I had a guest waiting. But man,
8:20
shout out to Skype. And- Like, without, without Skype, without Twitter, none of this would be possible. And we're at w- when did I start at this network? 2018. Yeah.
8:29
2018, and we, almost every guest that you have seen on these shows since- Yeah... is, on this network have come through Skype. Probably didn't know that at home. Fun fact. There you go. But I hope you had fun.
8:41
And that was our Skype tribute. [laughs] See you later, Skype. See you later. All right, Charles Schwab Challenge. Scottie Scheffler's back, Gil. He's only won two tournaments in a row, and he's- Bro, just look-...
8:50
in Texas... just look at those odds. It's wild. Before you say anything- Yes, it's wild... just look at that. Scottie Scheffler plus 240, everybody else 22 to 1 or longer. And by the way, names, right?
9:02
Matsuyama, Spieth, Berger. It's not like the, uh, the poo-poo platter. Although- Oh, correct. Yeah- Yeah... oh, absolutely. Yeah, absolutely. So it's, uh, look, it's Scheffler. This is, i- i- this isn't a terrible field.
9:14
And I'm gonna take five seconds and go off on something, too. These, uh, all the Dallas, and it's especially the Dallas natives, but all the Texas natives, good on you for always playing these Texas events.
9:25
Meanwhile, we've got all these guys living in Jupiter and Palm Beach, Florida, that can never make the 15-minute drive- Hey... over to the Honda Classic.
9:32
Bro, when they play a PGA Tour event at Rock Creek Park, I'm there every time. It, it's just, it's mind-blowing.
9:38
But yeah, so Scheffler makes it a big deal, and if you wonder, uh, how does Scheffler or, are you gonna go look to fade anybody who's coming off of a major win, just, just, just a reminder, Scheffler, Scheffler won after the winning the Masters last year, [laughs] a week later, so- He did, yes...
9:53
maybe don't take that angle. Yeah. And don't be very bullish with that this week. I usually tend to believe in that myself, but Scheffler literally just did it a year ago.
10:02
All right, like you said, Gil, we still got some solid names in here. This is a light betting card. I, Scheffler is so hot right now, I'm not gonna go crazy on this.
10:09
But when you have s- a lone heavy favorite like that, right, you're getting even better numbers on these guys than y- you would typically with a w- with a fuller field, um, with, with more, more battle-tested guys at the top.
10:23
So get a, you're getting longer prices, uh, on, on Berger, on Matsuyama, on Fleetwood, if you were interested in those guys. So I only played a couple th- this week. I'm back on Berger. He's been playing great.
10:34
Uh, he was second rate, by far second rated golfer of my modeling, uh, all this week. His ball striking's been great.
10:40
He's just gotta clean up, clean up some of the putting, uh, some of the stuff on the greens that will be important this week at the Colonial.
10:46
If you're looking for, for, uh, to do your own handicapping at home, make sure you check out Long Shots. Matt and West did that yesterday. But this is a little bit more of a positional course.
10:54
Uh, gotta be accurate off the tee, and then, uh, approach play is gonna be extremely important, and putting usually comes into play at this event. Does become a bit of a putting contest, um, will be important.
11:05
So Berger and Si Woo Kim are the outrights that I played. Si Woo's been playing, uh, some great golf recently, a bunch of top 20 finishes. If, if you wanna, uh, target him in that market, I think that's okay as well.
11:15
I decided to go outright top five with both him and Berger. Then a couple top 20s, uh, for me this week.
11:20
Tommy Fleetwood will go back there, uh, in that market with him, and then Jordan Spieth, who usually plays this course very well, I will be playing a top 20 on him. No J- JT Poston, uh, bets for giggles?
11:32
No JT Poston, but he did rate out very high for me this week, Gil. I considered it. Oh. In tribute to, uh, JT Poston's dad trying to talk to Kelly's mom. That's right. It's a whole thing. You tried, bro.
11:43
Steve Fezzik on the other side. Fezzik on a Wednesday. Anything on his mind, everything on his mind, right here on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. Coming back.
11:51
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12:06
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12:18
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12:31
Ladies and gentlemen, uh, typically this will be Fezzik Fridays, but you're in a time vortex. It's Wednesday, and it's time for Steve Fezzik on the radio.
12:39
[upbeat music] Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Fezzik. [laughs] They just cut off the Fridays. [laughs] It's time for Fezzik.
12:53
And it is, Steve Fezzik, the only back-to-back champion of the Hilton Super Contest back in the day. Good morning, sir.
12:59
You know, I'm trying to say something in Spanish, but I've forgotten everything except for today's what, veinte y uno? Uh, yes. 21st? Yeah. It is the, uh, 21st of May, yes. Mayo. Do you speak Spanish, Steve?
13:11
Or you just- Uh- No, not really... Estaban es muy estúpido en español. [laughs] Okay. Gotcha. Y ingles. [laughs] Es- and strangely in English as well.
13:20
[laughs] Uh, okay, uh, first things first, uh, you're wearing black, so it's, it, it's slimming, so you are a svelte, svelte weight. You are trying to get to 199, and you are only a few pounds shy. I'm at 202.
13:33
There you go. And pre-production we were talking about, "Oh, you'll probably be 201 tomorrow." [laughs] No. There is- No, you've-... zero chance I'll be 201... you've never met this guy before.
13:42
He is a maniac when he puts his mind to something. Uh, before we get into anything else, let us talk about this, uh, VSiN Killer Sports NBA Contest.
13:50
Uh, last night, uh, obviously only one NBA game, the T-Wolves were seven-and-a-half-point dogs against the Thunder. The total in the contest was 215. I think the game closed at 219 and a half.
14:04
It was, like, four and a half points higher. So someone like me, and I knew someone like Stevie, there was no choice, but you had to play the over in the contest at 215.
14:16
I wasn't gonna play anything, but when I saw the number, I'm like, "Well, I mean, you're crazy if you don't play this," and we all ended up losing.
14:22
Yeah, so contest basic strategy, it doesn't always work, or if, if it did, the same people would, would win every contest- Yes... you know, with, with, you know, employing that strategy.
14:32
But, uh, yeah, had a little meltdown as I'm watching the game. [laughs] You know, and I'm watching it, and I'm like, th- this is a s- this is stupid. This game's [laughs] going way under. Yes, so- Yeah...
14:40
and, yeah Well, well, the o- the s- the only saving grace is that everybody else, uh, who was in contention took the T-Wolves plus the points. So here are the current standings.
14:49
Zach Cohen and Steve Fezzik, your co-leaders at 19 and 12 with seven games left, uh, throughout the, uh, remainder, the balance of the, uh, NBA playoffs. Doug Kazerian was the big winner yesterday.
15:01
Did he change his name? Uh, yeah, we had a little typo there. [laughs] Little- Uh, Doug, Doug was the big winner by not playing anything yesterday, so he gains a, a half game on everybody.
15:09
He's in third place at 17 and 13. And then me and Kelly Bidlea, my, uh, my cohort here on The Numbers Game, producer number nine, so much more than a producer, 16, 14, and one.
15:19
We are just outside of the money now, but we both took a hit yesterday 'cause Kelly took the, uh, T-Wolves plus the points. Uh, Alex Christensen and Kyle Aikens, also big winners by not playing anything yesterday.
15:28
So, and Alex is really in, in fourth place, quite frankly. Uh, so those are the folks in contention. Now, now a broader point can be made by this, right? So I wasn't gonna play anything. I saw the 215 in the contest.
15:42
I'm like, "Well, I mean, I have no choice," right? It is my duty to play this. You felt the same way, and this triggered something in your brain about a, a broader point about bookmaking in general.
15:53
Yes, that bookmakers know nothing, all right? Everyone's like, "Oh, well, they, Vegas knows." You always hear that, "Vegas knows." Vegas knows nothing. How do they know? You hear people say that all the time. Yeah.
16:04
The, the best evidence that I can give is that it's not that no one knows nothing.
16:09
Someone knows something, but not the bookmakers, because if they did, here we have an example of, like, Oklahoma City's playing Minnesota, and book one has the line at seven, and book two has the line at seven, and book three has the line at seven.
16:22
Everyone's at seven, all right? So think about it. You got plus 110 working for you as a bookmaker. You could go to six and a half. You could go to seven and a half. He- heck, you could go to six. You could go to eight,
16:33
and you're gonna get so much action, all the action you want. And, like, think about that total. It closed 219 and a half. If you had just dealt to 218, it was 215 earlier, right? Mm-hmm.
16:43
If you dealt 218, you would get a bazillion of dollars on over 218, but nobody does it. And why don't they do it? Because some bookmakers have tried, and they have just gotten annihilated, you know?
16:58
So basically, the bookmakers' opinions are like, "I'm just gonna deal the market because I've learned. I've put my hand on the hot stove." They are, they are risk-averse is what you're saying.
17:08
W- w- w- not only are they, are they risk-averse, they lack the ability to be able to win doing that. They've learned the hard way where- Mm-hmm... they basically probably, when they deal their opinion, they,
17:20
they oftentimes get games wrong, and then their bosses, you're right, absolutely scream at them, "How'd we lose $100,000 on this?" All right. Here's the real truth serum question, though.
17:31
Let's say we live in a bizarro world where Steve Fezzik was actually the bookmaker. Do you think you would actually behave as you are suggesting right now? Absolutely. You would? 100%.
17:40
I mean, the, like, like, it shocks me that there are not more books that don't do that. And, like, I'll, I'll use an example.
17:47
So I, I loved, it's easier on a derivative obviously, but, like, Texas, deGrom i- is styling, okay? So deGrom is, his last six starts he's given up one run.
17:56
So first five innings, first three innings, um, deGrom was a modest favorite for Texas. Boom, I woulda just c- I would not have allowed the bettors to bet.
18:04
I would've said, "We're making Texas 20 cents higher than the marketplace this morning, and I don't want any Texas money whatsoever first five," because I, I really love Texas, and I would do that.
18:16
And a lot of books, you know, they don't do that on any game. Uh, you were speaking of manipulation.
18:21
This is a little bit different, but I'll tell you what, uh, you, you were sorta suggesting might have been, uh, some better manipulation.
18:28
I don't know if that's the right word, but yesterday in the WNBA, the Atlanta Dream beat the, uh, the Indiana Fever, Caitlin Clark's Indiana Fever, 91 to 90.
18:38
Uh, and they did so at the end of the game when Aliyah Boston only hit one of two free throws, uh, to put the Fever up one, but then you got two made free throws by Ryan Howard to give the Dream the win. That held up.
18:54
Uh, Fever could not, uh, get a game-winning bucket, so the Dream win at 91-90. But the first half total caught your attention.
19:01
Yeah, so the first half total was right around 86, and my guys, the Hitman, says, "Oh, we want over, right? Bet over, right? Bet over 86." And so it goes up to, like, 86 and a half. I come back later in the day.
19:14
What's this? It's down to 85 and a half. There's even some 85s popping up. I'm like, "That's odd. He played over 86. He never plays a bad number."
19:23
And then I see later, I go back to the odds screen after the game tipped off, it closed 87, the first half did.
19:28
So there was this unusual period of time where this total inexplicably dropped down to 85, and I truly believe someone manipulated the market. They, they invested in some shark books.
19:39
Oh, you believe someone purposely bet the under? They phonied it up- Yeah... by betting under when they really liked over, and then when it hit 85, they went nuts playing over 85 and over 85 and a half.
19:50
And, you know, Billy Walters famously has talked about- Yes... like, phoning up this game. And I think someone phonied up that total, and then it lands 86, so they fiddle in the middle. You're, you're speculating that.
20:00
You don't know that for a fact. I don't know.
20:01
You're speculating, but the re- and the reason you're speculating is because, like, i- in the Billy Walters case, everybody, "Well, it's Billy Walters, so he can, you know, he knows what he's doing. He's..."
20:08
So you, what you are saying is Hitman, your guy, knows his stuff so much, I mean, you have to respect the handicapper to come to that conclusion, right? Sure.
20:18
You respect him so much that, in your opinion, someone had to, to, to go under, you would've had to have manipulated and then gone the other way, right?
20:25
Or they had information about, like, the point guard being injured or something that Hitman may not have known. Yeah. So that certainly could've been possible, yes.
20:32
Uh, what's this blackjack thing you came, uh, stalking in the studio with before this?
20:35
Oh, I saw, I saw a fella playing, and he was making one of the most egregious mistakes in blackjack that you won't see in any books, and specifically, he was doubling down for less. All right?
20:45
So people, some people may not know that when you double down, uh, let's say you have an ace four against a dealer four, you don't have to double for the full amount.
20:53
If you want to double for half, you know, if you bet $200, you can double for 100. And in this ca- i- in, in a case like the ace four, it's an enormous mistake.
21:02
Same thing, like, if you double, like, an 11 against a seven and you double for less, it's a really big mistake. And the reason it's a big mistake is that you wanna, uh, you have a positive expectation.
21:12
You wanna get as much money out as possible, but you are actually hurting your chance of winning that hand when you double down, 'cause what happens if you get an ace or you get a two?
21:20
Well, now you have to stop, all right? So you never wanna put just a small amount out there and double, and now you've eschewed your, your opportunity to take a fourth card. So, um, bottom line is don't double for less.
21:32
You observed this because he was playing at your table- Yes... or you were just- Yes... looking over someone's shoulder? He was playing at my table. Oh. They were playing in, in a high limit salon.
21:39
Now, what does, what does Steve Fezzik do in that situation? Do you, A, not say a damn word, B, open your mouth and tell this person what a Dumbo he is because Twitter Fezzik, it just infests you at that moment?
21:52
Uh, the answer, the correct answer is C, ask him, "Can I cover the re- the rest of the amount- Oh... with my own money?" But- Little passive-aggressive there... it, well, not passive-aggressive, just grab an EV.
22:03
I'm just- Yeah... grab an expectation. But, like, the, I don't do it because the casino doesn't like it. So okay, it was option C then. Yeah. Okay. Option C is- Interesting...
22:13
but, but option C for an advantage player, that's, like, clearly... Like, and you, and you s- you see this every now and then. Someone runs out of money.
22:19
They get a pair of eights, and they're like, "Oh, you know, what do I do?" And you're like, "I'll, I'll, here we go. Let's go, partners."
22:25
Relating this back to our NBA thing from last night, I know Kelly, uh, Kelly's here behind the glass, but we'll get his answer to this.
22:31
I wonder if Kelly not playing his conviction on the under last night was not only 'cause the number was what it was, but also that Steve Fezzik was looming, and he knew that you would frown upon that behavior. I wonder.
22:45
Kelly will answer that. But contrarian would've been the right play. Well, in retrospect. Yeah. Let's get Kelly to answer that on the other side. Numbers Game, more with Fezzik.
22:51
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23:18
Kelly, by the way, has, uh, informed us that, uh, he forgot to even look at the total in the contest yesterday, so he didn't even know that it was a 215, but he said had he seen it, he probably would not have played the under.
23:30
Hmm. But wouldn't have been because of Fezzik shame, I didn't get the impression. Uh, we get tweets at Beating The Book.
23:35
StringFellowHawk, "Since the only difference between football and rugby is the forward pass, why not change the rules to allow for linebackers to push defensive linemen? I'm in camp find a way to stop it on the field."
23:45
Well, that's an interesting, uh, uh, solution to it, StringFellowHawk, and we have an update on this from Tom Pelissero over there at the NFL Network.
23:53
Tom Pelissero has tweeted that the general session of the spring league meeting has concluded without a vote on banning the tush push, and the debate will continue in a privileged session with only owners.
24:06
Privileged session, where only the owners get to be in the room. If I may, and I know they discontinued the talk of changing the playoff format. Yes. This is a slam dunk. I don't know why the NFL doesn't do this.
24:18
Minimum standards, if you win your division, but you do not have a winning record, all right? Mm-hmm. You don't get a home playoff game. So you gotta go at least nine and eight to get that home playoff game.
24:30
If you're eight and nine and you win the division, boom, you have to go on the road in the playoffs.
24:36
And it's, and it, and it's not really hard to change because there is no, like, you know, the, the stadiums haven't been preparing for a game all these weeks and months, so it's, yeah, you can change that on the fly.
24:46
Yeah, so the five- Yeah... hosts the four. Yeah. Now you s- you, you're still the four, but you have to go on the road.
24:51
Jonathan Doe, not John Doe, Jonathan Doe During the Vsin Batman commercial, at the very end of the ad, there's a left hand throwing the switch with SFP monogram on the cuff. Who is F- SFP? Hmm. Oh.
25:08
Am I allowed to say that on air? Yes? Barring anything? Uh, it's, uh, I'm told it's DJS upside down. Derek J. Stevens upside down. Ooh. Ooh. Now, I keep waiting for- Ooh...
25:19
Mike Palm to, like, become The Joker or someone, you know? Like, like, if he's in disguise and he's always incognito as, like, a guard, you know?
25:27
[laughs] All right, uh, got a few questions here for you, Steve, 'cause I know you have a lot on your mind.
25:33
One, let's get the s- I know you wanna, you always wanna talk about, uh, getting the best of, uh, the, the value out of, uh, living in Vegas and casinos.
25:40
We'll get to that momentarily, but first you have to give us a couple sports things. One, um- [laughs]... the Pacers and the Knicks. You have an opinion about this series. Yeah, so I'm very much pro Indiana.
25:52
I think the Knicks, if you watch the Detroit games, they were all dog fights, it could've gone either way, and then Boston can't make a three in games one and two famously. So I think the Knicks are overvalued.
26:06
I think Indiana's the better team. I don't know if I'm gonna get there, you know, by a smidgen
26:11
in game one, but I'd love nothing more than the Knicks to win game one, and then Indiana, Indiana basically has got to become a big bet.
26:18
Any game they lose, the next game in that series I will invest in, in the zigzag in Indiana. You gonna play the Pacers in the contest tonight, Steve? I don't know. I don't know about game one. Yeah.
26:29
Kelly and I were just talking about, we are not quite yet at the point where we have to go contrary to you to win this, but we're almost at that point. We're almost at that point.
26:38
Um, okay, baseball, you have come in here many times and you have given us repeated adjusted season win total bets. Today you have something a little different, which is a little bit bridge jumpy.
26:50
Yeah, so, uh, I, I've been betting against these bad teams like the Pirates and, y- uh, Co- you know, Colorado to go under, you know, but Colorado's, um, season win number's down to [laughs] 40. I still like it under 40.
27:03
Um, but I'm gonna take a team I haven't invested in yet. T- the Toronto Blue Jays. I was talking to JVT pre-production, I was like, "What do you think Toronto's chances of winning, making the playoffs?"
27:12
And he thought about it and he's like, "Like, 20%." And I think that's a l- that's a good number. I think it's a little bit optimistic. Um, how are the Blue Jays gonna make the playoffs? They're below 500. Yeah.
27:23
They've been outscored by 25 runs. The Yankees are gonna likely win the division.
27:28
All these other teams, we used to talk about the American League, you know, how terrible the American League was, but now all these teams in the Central are stylin'. They're all, they're getting their act together.
27:36
You got your three good teams in the West. There's no room for the Blue Jays to make the playoffs, so no, Toronto Blue Jays, this is at Caesar's, no playoffs, minus 320. Uh- Hmm...
27:46
I'd be shocked, shocked if the Blue Jays made the playoffs. I would be surprised. Yes. The other teams, you're right, are stylin', and by the way, Steve, profilin' as well. But I, I'm with you.
27:56
Like, the Blue Jays to make the playoffs, I mean, right now they're 23 and 24. Um, you know, y- here are all the teams with better records in the American League currently than them.
28:06
Yankees and Red Sox in their own division, Tigers, Twins, Guardians, and Royals all in the Central, Mariners, Astros, Rangers in the West. So I mean, yeah.
28:15
Now, we're o- we're only a little more than a quarter of the way through the season, but you have to get through that scrum to somehow make a post-season, you know, get a post-season berth. I'm with you.
28:24
Minus 320, not for everybody, but, uh, I get the point. Okay, you've given us a couple sports. Now let's get to the Steve Fezzik. [laughs] This is, this is your... So, so give us the theme of this.
28:35
So the theme is that Vegas has, unfortunately it used to be a great cheap destination. Yes.
28:41
Everyone come to Vegas and you get great deals, and now everyone knows Vegas, boy, it's become a money grab, $25 cocktails, um, parking fees, resort fees. It's just so dang expensive.
28:54
But for those who search for it, there are still outstanding deals. [laughs] You can eat so cheap in this town. And you search for it. Yes. What did, what did your search r- r- reveal for us? What do you have?
29:07
So if you're age 50 plus- [laughs]... it turns out these casinos are like, "Wow, uh, you know, we get these old farts with their walkers coming in, right?
29:14
And they, they're just gonna donate their money at the slot machines. We'll give them everything." So, and I qualify. Um, so they give, at the South Point, we'll start there, 50% off.
29:24
So if you use your points, and getting points is easy if you're an advantage gambler. You can place at the sports book, get some points on the card. So you get 50% off at any of the restaurants, but you stack promotions.
29:36
You go in, so it's m- it's Sunday night, it's midnight, so now Monday at 12:01, you go in and you get your 7.45 steak and eggs or your 4.99 cheeseburger, um, or your bacon and eggs for 4.99, but now you get it for 2.50 because it's 50% off the already massively discounted price, and it's that way for 24 hours on Monday.
29:58
So boom, Monday night you go into the outstanding buffet. South Point has an underrated buffet. Great buffet. It's like $28, and now you get it for $14 when you pay with points.
30:07
Bottom line is you eat both meals Monday at the South Point because they have that 50% special and, but wait, Gil, there's more.
30:15
Wednesday, the Green Valley has their 50% off for 50 plus, so you, you stack it, you do the same thing, and guess what? Crack came on, he says like, "24 hours a day, 5.95 cheeseburger and fries special."
30:28
Well, now it's $2.97 [laughs] because you get the 50% off, or you can go to Fat Burger and pay, get the same thing for $14. It's up to you. Yeah. And there's something at Green Valley too, right?
30:39
So Friday, I just discovered this, a Mexican restaurant, all right? Yeah. And they have half off appetizers at Green Valley, and what's this? I see this little note on the kiosk.
30:48
If you show a losing sports bet that you made during the, the week at Green Valley, $20 or more- You, uh, you get 20% off your entire bill for up to six people, okay? Oh. So think about this.
31:01
So on Wednesday, when you go there Wednesday for your 50% meal, just make a bunch of $20 bets at the sportsbook, and then some of them will lose. Right.
31:09
And then on Friday, boom, you go in and you have your half-price appetizers. And by the way- How'd you find this one out?
31:15
It was on their, their, th- they have a rotating, um, uh, kiosk that shows all the different specials that they have. All right. And, and no one is doing it.
31:23
I walked, I, I like had to ask four people in the casino, and like finally the manager at the Mexican restaurant confirmed, "Yes, we're doing this." Okay, so here's the question. You, you have a wife and child.
31:31
Do you take the wife and child for all of these? Or in your Stevie Fezzik robot, uh, chin sprain, are [laughs] you, are you, are you like, "No, if I take them, that obviously multiplies the numbers.
31:43
I'm just going by myself to all of this"? Um, oftentimes I bring the food back. And here's the thing- Uh-huh... is that the South Point- [laughs]...
31:50
they don't like this because they're losing money, so they have rule, there's rules- Yes... that you can only have one entree, all right? And there's no to-go.
31:58
So you have to pretend like you're trying to eat it, and then you don't, you don't have the order to go.
32:03
You say, "Oh, I'm gonna go ahead and need to have, um, uh, a doggy bag here because I'm, I'm, I'm unable to finish my shrimp fra diavolo." 'Cause, 'cause they won't let you take just a clean order to take out. Right.
32:14
[laughs] You have to start eating, then stop and do it. Yes. You, you realize that this is meshugana, right? Like, you, the, your- A what?... brain space is occupied.
32:24
Like, you spend so much time trying to figure out how to, like, cut costs on each corner on this. You need to meet my cousin Itzik once and for all. Itzik.
32:32
[laughs] You need to meet him because as, as Todd said, as Todd Wishnev said, uh, you're the Willie Mays of this. My cousin Itzik is the Babe Ruth of this.
32:40
But, but what if, but what if you're, you have to eat Tuesday or Thursday? So you go to Old Henderson on Water Street- Yeah... at the Pass.
32:46
They have a s- like a $17 prime rib, but if you use your player's card, it's $9.99. Oh, my God, this guy. [laughs] My cousin Itzik, by the way, he w- he would, like, he would scoff at your tactics.
32:59
He would be like, "Eh, Steve, I notice that, uh, your Coca-Cola has too much ice in it. Why didn't you ask for f- for little ice?" He would, he would totally br- I-... just break down your game...
33:09
and famously you can walk into a high limit, you know, um, salon area, buy in for like $500 and on a double deck. And they're like, "You gotta wait till the shuffle." And I'm like, "Oh, that's fine.
33:19
By the way, I'll have an old-fashioned Woodford, please." And then they bring the drink, and they haven't gotten through the double deck.
33:25
And you're like, "Oh, uh, wife needs me to go home," and you just walk out with the drink. You, you can never live anywhere else. You just, there's- Never... never. Vegas is, I love Vegas. You will die here, sir.
33:36
You know, by natural causes, I'm just saying, because you can't live anywhere else. Uh, more with Fezzik on the other side. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. 91.
33:43
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
33:59
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin behind the glass, Steve Fezzik alongside. We have an update to the update now on the tush push. Adam Schefter, Dianna Russini, uh, lots of folks reporting this. This is from Schefter.
34:11
"A ban of the push tush play that the Eagles popularized did not, repeat, did not receive enough votes at today's league meeting in Minneapolis. The play remains alive. There will be more tush pushes this season."
34:26
Uh, Schefter goes on to say, "One source said there were at least nine and possibly 10 teams that voted no on a ban of the tush push play. The tush push lives." Or as we like to say here, the tuchus push lives.
34:39
So we'll get more of that during guessing lines this year. Um, there it is.
34:43
So everybody who were, who was acting like it was fait accompli this morning, um, all over the place on Twitter and beyond, who were like, "Oh yeah, it's banned," no it's not. Tush push continues.
34:53
Why did the teams get to decide? This makes no sense 'cause obviously it says benefits only, like, three teams. It should be the, the competition committee should be deciding this, not the teams. I agree with that.
35:04
I agree with that. Um, yeah, it's, look, it's, here's the thing. You gotta have a, you gotta have a, uh, a threshold, right?
35:12
You have to exceed the threshold of votes to pass these things, and that's, uh, you know, that's over a quarter of the league right there according to Schefter saying, "Yeah, we don't, we don't really have a problem with it."
35:22
So there you go. Um, the tush push lives. The seeding got tabled. Nothing happened today, uh, in terms of NFL rule changes yet. Kickoffs do come out to the 35 this year.
35:31
Oh, but now that I know you love, you love talking about this. That's the thing. Like, you were, you were like, "Oh, the average kickoff return will come down to the 28.7 yard line," whatever you were saying last year.
35:42
But that, the g- the, the, the, um, touchback to the 30 did not deter teams from kicking it through the end zone. They made the rational business decision of like- Yes...
35:53
"Why get all my players injured for one yard of expectation? I'll just kick it out of the end zone." But now that the ball comes out to the 35, all the good teams are gonna mortar kick to the five. Absolutely.
36:03
And all the, some of the bad teams might still kick off to the end zone, and if they do, they're at a massive disadvantage.
36:07
Because you're, tho- those five yards from the 30 to the 35 yard line, your rate of scoring as an offense increases really markedly. Two first downs- Just those five yards, yeah... and you're in field goal range.
36:20
Yep, that's it. Um, let's recap all the bets before we get back to Stevie. Let's recap all the bets. By the way, Stevie with a McDonald's hack coming up. Is that what I'm hearing? G-BAANG, the official bank of VSiN.
36:29
Oh, [laughs] people like a McDonald's hack. Uh, G-BAANG, the official bank of VSiN, every host, every guest, every sport, every bet recapped at the end of every show, courtesy of G-BAANG, the official bank of VSiN.
36:40
Uh, I am, again, I'm on the Pacers plus 140 on the series price. I will be on the Pacers. I haven't put it in the book, but this will, this will be a play for me tonight.
36:48
Pacers plus the points tonight, game one of the Eastern Conference Final at Madison Square Garden. Kelly Bidlin, Kelly Bidley, everybody, he too is on the Pacers price. Look, he got 5 cents better than I did. That kid.
37:01
And he's on Josh Hart to lead the series in rebounds. Josh Hart of the Knickerbockers to lead the series in reboundings, pl- uh, in rebounding plus 550 on Josh Hart.
37:11
The Sidwell Friends product, for those from the DMV, Josh Hart. Will Hill's best bets, he's on the Knicks to win the series in exactly seven.
37:19
He says the Knicks to win it full distance in this, in this, uh, series at four to one.
37:23
And today in baseball he's on the Marlins Cubs first five under five runs, and the Rays Astros first five under four and a half runs. Betting against human offensive achievement in both of those games, uh, is Will Hill.
37:36
And, uh, then we had JBT, Pacers Knicks over five and a half games in this series, uh, at minus 165. He was not scared to lay the minus 165 on over five and a half. Goes at least six, he thinks.
37:48
And he's got Josh Hart to lead the series in rebounds at a better price than Kelly. Kelly was inspired by the JBT bet. Josh Hart nine to one, I don't believe that number's there anymore, to lead the series in rebounds.
37:59
Jason Weingarten had himself a couple baseball bets today. Uh, he is taking the Marlins as a slight dog, and he's laying the wood with the San Francisco Giants.
38:07
Giants magic minus 202 today against the Royals with Cheese. Uh, GBank once again. Oh, and by the way, Stevie Fezzik, who's sitting to my left, Blue Jays not to make the playoffs. Should we call this a bridge jumper?
38:19
It's not quite a bridge jumper. Blue Jays to n- to miss the playoffs, so no to make the playoffs at minus 320. What do you think? Bridge jumper officially or no? What do you call it?
38:29
Yeah, haven't lost one of those in over two years, Purdue. [laughs] Still, still not in the black, though. Still not in the black. [laughs] Uh, get the GBank Visa Signature card today.
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39:04
Tush push in full effect, y'all. That's the update. It's still happening. Tush push in the National Football League. All right, what's the McDonald's hack? Is a hack a correct way to talk about it?
39:15
Yeah, no, there's several. Okay. Some of them are obvious. If you're thirsty, you can get a large drink for $1.50.
39:20
Most of the other competitors charge $3, so pop through there if no one's in the drive-thru and get your $1.50, all right? Okay.
39:27
Uh, the McValue menu, this is obvious also, um, buy one, get the second for a buck, be it a McChicken sandwich or six-piece McNuggets, so that's a good deal.
39:36
Um, there is an $18.95, like, lots of food deal where you get, like, two Big Macs, you get 20, two 20-piece McNuggets, fries. You get, it, it, it's basically, like, 60%, 50, 40% off- Oh-... if you did them a la carte...
39:50
oh, that's not a very well-known one, is it? Yeah, it's on the menu, but they don't, you know- They don't promote it... they don't promote it. So, so here's the biggest hack, the most important hack. Yeah.
39:57
Whenever you order any sandwich from McDonald's, you have to order it with no onions or no pickles, all right?
40:04
And whenever you order fries, you have to order it with no salt, because you don't want, if you order, like, a big package, they're gonna give you the two old Big Macs.
40:11
They're gonna put it in there, and you're gonna get, like, cold Big Macs. Like, so- Mm... you need them to make it fresh for you at all times, and so say either no onions or no pickles, whatever you're indifferent about.
40:23
Now, what's interesting- By doing that, then they give you a freshly made? They have to. Right. Yes. They could, ba- it is, so, like, like, there's, I'm not gonna mention any names or embarrass anyone. It's Rob Pizzola.
40:32
[laughs] He was saying- Yes... "Why," uh, Steve Fezzik, "Why wouldn't you just ask for us to freshly make up the Big Macs?"
40:39
Well, this may work in Canada and the Northwest Territories, you know, and, and the Yukon, but here in the United States of America- Wow...
40:46
can you imagine if you go to, like, by the Westgate, that McDonald's and you said, "I'd like you to make me a fresh Big Mac, please," what they might do to my Big Mac? But aren't you kinda saying that, though, same way?
40:58
Yeah, but I'm saying it so I'm not- Yeah... like, gonna have something- [laughs] Why don't, why-... unpleasant surprises with my sandwich...
41:03
why, why when you go after Rob, you gotta, yeah, Canada's gotta catch some strays also. We, we love Canada on this show, for God's sake. Tariffs. Oh, God. Um, okay. Still not as good as my Chipotle hack.
41:16
Once again, let me, let me- Oh-... repeat my Chipotle hack... this is so strong. It's the greatest thing ever. Um- Go ahead...
41:21
if you want double chicken or double whatever on your Chipotle bowl or burrito, you do not say you want double chicken. You wait for them to just, you just say you want chicken.
41:30
You wait for them to put single chicken on it, and then you double back and you say, "Oh, I want double chicken," 'cause that way they give you 2.0, two, two times chicken. Instead of 1.5.
41:40
Instead of if I said double chicken, then they only give you 1.5 times chicken. Clearly. That's the best, uh, fast food hack. Do we call Chipotle fast, fast food? I think we do. So strong. Um, okay.
41:49
Back to the, uh, can I just, I wanna wrap this up with the, uh, the contest because you are, you've, uh, well, we always say you're the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest, and for those who are new to the show and are like, "Who is this guy with all of these, uh, these bits of advice?"
42:03
So you've won not only those two contests, but you've won multiple contests. You won others in town, too. Yeah, so I've won, like, six contests. Last year I finished second in the Westgate season win contest- Yeah...
42:13
out of 156 people, and 21st in the, um, two years ago in the Circa Millions. Okay, so I'm gonna do something. I'm gonna do, like, an Evel Knievel thing here. I'm gonna put on my Evel Knievel helmet- Ooh...
42:22
and ask you a question because this is daring of me, because I want you to try to answer this without offending anybody. [laughs] But in this NBA Vsin Basketball Challenge,
42:35
you as a contest expert, and once again, co-leader of it currently with seven games left, what have been some of the things you have noticed about poor contest play?
42:46
Yeah, so I, I covered this with Bill 80 and he put it in, in a newsletter. Yes. Basically, most of the contestants aren't contest players, so they're gonna take whoever they like.
42:56
If they like the Knicks, they're gonna play the Knicks.
42:58
If they like the Pacers, they're gonna play the Pacers, and then they're gonna go into the contest and they're gonna click Knicks or Pacers, and they're not gonna pay even any attention to the number. And me, I,
43:09
uh, a, a contest, a true contest player like a Frank B, who famously won houses in contests and the like, he w- he agrees with me. Never play a bad number. Never, ever, ever play a bad number.
43:20
So last night, um, Oklahoma City was minus seven half against Minnesota. That means you have to play Minnesota in the contest or you pass. Oklahoma City minus seven half is not an option. Know why?
43:31
Because I can bet Oklahoma City minus seven at reduced vig, and when I play it in the contest, it's like having an implied bet, and I would never lay minus seven and a half on Oklahoma City, so why would I do it in a contest?
43:43
Yeah. Um, and contest behavior also shifts based on where we are in the contest. A great example, Kelly and I are both two and a half games behind you. As the games dwindle, our behavior ought to change.
43:55
You're out, you're two and a half games out with- Yeah... seven to play. Yeah. So, but you're really five half games out. Right.
44:00
So you gotta make up ground, and if you know, if someone told you, "Stevie is on the Pacers tonight," you're like, "Well, then I like the Knicks." Tonight, probably not, but in a couple days, yes.
44:14
Yes, we are getting there- Yeah... very quickly. We're getting there very quickly. Right. Steve Fezzik, ladies and gentlemen, @FezzikSports. Follow at your own peril. [laughs] Seriously. Guy gets a little ornery on you.
44:24
Canada's a good place to go for vacation. Apologies to the Canadians. Thank you, Stevie. They're good people. Thank you, Stevie. Stormy and JBT next with Money Moves, a joy from Visa, the sports betting network.
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