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May 22, 2024
A Numbers Game | May 22, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 22, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in this morning, we do appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin.
0:19
Still to come this hour, uh, we're gonna talk NFL week one starting quarterback odds. I like that. Nice job, Kelly.
0:28
Kelly, uh, has been, uh, watching Roundball Rock for about, what do you say, seven, eight times this morning, would you say? Yeah, only once this morning. Oh, okay.
0:34
But like at least seven, eight times over the past week, yeah. I mean, he's dreamt it, he put it on his answering machine, and then he just jams on stage about it. I mean, I went down...
0:41
W- we had, we had some people tweeting at us, uh, Lenny Kravitz, like, commercials and stuff yesterday. I also went down that rabbit hole more. Lenny Kravitz commercials? Yeah. I still don't have an answer though.
0:49
I'm just left with more questions. Jason Weingarten gonna join us later from under a cloud of smoke. He's back from London, where he watched, uh, his Crawley Town team get to League One.
0:59
I'm curious if, uh, Jason wore a coat and tie like everybody else did. Oh. Yeah. Yeah. That's interesting to me. Uh, we get tweets at Betting the Books- He definitely had nice shoes on. We know that much. We know that.
1:08
[laughs] $1,500 shoes. Might, might, might have been T-shirt and shorts, but he had $1,500 shoes on. Uh, we got tweets at Betting the Books.
1:14
Scott C: "I'm not even a fan of Inside the NBA the way you guys are, but I shudder to think of how bad the NBC version can be." That's a good point. Uh, Mr. Masterline: "Lenny's birthday is Sunday. He's gonna be 60.
1:27
His second cousin is Al Roker." Oh, I didn't know Roxy Roker and Al Roker were related. Uh, Corbin, oh, okay: "Good morning, guys. Tough loss on Leila Fernandez yesterday.
1:36
I'm curious, what's your opinion on hedging a bet like yesterday when you can physically see the match turning against you and you can still get plus money the other way? Do you hedge in these instances?
1:47
Also, anything today in tennis? Good sir." Um, okay, so this is, this is the first thing I said to Kelly this morning. This is where it gets weird with vsin.com/picks.
1:55
So I sent them in to Bill that I had Magda Linette last night. She won, so we actually had a bounce-back win. It didn't get on vsin.com. Um, so we apologize for that. Sometimes there is a, uh, there is a hiccup in there.
2:08
Um, but to your question, so I don't have... By the way, he asked do I have any other tennis picks, so I don't anymore today. That was the only one.
2:16
The Leila Fernandez thing is a great, is, is great question because she won the first set, she loses the second set, and then it was so clear that she was gonna get smoked in the third set. Like, she just lost it.
2:27
Um, and to your question, it, there really is no blanket response, Corbin- Yeah... other than sometimes yes, most of the time no- Yeah... is the honest answer.
2:38
Because I still think that the numbers could manifest, and so I let it, more often than not, I will let it try to do that. Sometimes it doesn't, and that was one of those yesterday.
2:50
But it's a good, it's a good question in retrospect- It's a great question. Yeah... because she was absolutely like a club tennis player at that point. She was just mentally done.
2:58
And we don't often talk about gut, uh, it, gut decisions and stuff like that. Yeah. But those, those, those situations are kind of that, right? It's, eh, I see this going a different way than I thought it was going to.
3:09
Let me buy off my position. I mean, those are, there are, there are examples in tennis, and we've talked about them here on the show.
3:13
Like, there was one time before we were winning on Katie Volynets, there was a, I remember when Vishnev was on with me on Wishnev Wednesdays, while we were on air... It wasn't while we were on air.
3:21
I think it was the night before. You could tell she just couldn't hit a serve over the net. In those circumstances you're like, "Oh, let me jump on this." Uh, but not, not generally.
3:30
Uh, Jason Sparty KY says, uh, "Not sure if you talked about Lenny K being the son of the lady from the old show The Jeffersons. Not Weezy." Yes, Roxy Roker, the wife. She played the wife of Tom, uh, their neighbor.
3:41
Jesse Welch: "Shout out to Wemby getting first team All-D last night. Won a nice little five to one pre-flop. I still should have won the 50 to one in six different 10 to one Defensive Player of the Year tickets.
3:50
I had him on though." By the way, Paul Carlshill car- also cashed.
3:53
He said, because we were talking about him for DPOY, Defensive Player of the Year, he bet him first team All NBA defensive team, and so he cashed on that as well.
4:01
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he's the host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast. He's also part of Chris Fallica's Bear Bets pod over there at Fox Sports. You can follow him at Not The Will Hill on Twitter.
4:12
It's Will Hill, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. What's happening, man? Boys, what's going on? Thanks for having me on. I'm a, I'm a little nervous.
4:19
I feel like I have a, a high standard to li- uh, to, to l- live up to. You guys before, I mean, d- during the break, you know, seeing Najad this, seeing Najad that. Kelly's fawning over the guy. I mean- [laughs]...
4:29
I feel like I have to, uh, put on a show here. Well, you started off strong with a, with a strong suit, so you're, you're doing well. What episode of Miami Vice was that on? [laughs] Third one. Third one. Yeah.
4:39
Season one, episode three.
4:41
Uh, Will, do you agree with, I'm curious, uh, first thing on the show, I was talking about the Pacers and the Celtics, and I was just talking about from a, from a macro handicapping standpoint, understanding that the Celtics still won the game and that the Pacers lost.
4:54
But that, that was kind of my point from last year about the Heat, where I just feel like if you are...
5:01
It's the one sport where if you're too close to it, if you're too close to the sun during the regular season, it might come back to hamper you at a rate higher than any other sport in the postseason.
5:13
Yeah, I mean, I, of all the sports, there, there's no bigger gap between regular season and, and, and postseason just because, you know, the other sports carry over.
5:21
These teams are, you're not playing the long game like they are in the NBA, and you're just, it, it's a different brand of basketball. It's just, it, it is a different sport.
5:28
I mean, we saw that with the Thunder where, hey, they're top three in all these categories, top five, best defense, best offense, and they get to the playoffs and they couldn't make a shot, couldn't get a rebound.
5:35
So yeah, there, there's a lot of truth to that. And, but, but I mean, you always talk about holding two thoughts in your head at the same time.
5:41
Boston's obviously a really good team, but man, if you don't have your guard up with them at, at some point, I do feel like, like Kelly was hitting at, we hold them to this higher s- high standard where if they don't win every game and win every game by 10 points, we're all disappointed with them.
5:51
But, but if you don't have your guard up with them at, you know, at, at this point, you're just, uh, you know, you're, you're not paying attention because they just, it's hard to trust them.
5:59
Now, maybe they'll, a month from now they'll be holding up the trophy, and a lot of those questions- Yeah... will go to the side and say, "Hey, you know what? The, the- All is forgiven wh- when you win.
6:08
You know, we, we lose those questions about you. That's why we, well, assumed Denver was gonna get to the finish line, but kind of have to see it with them before we believe it. Right now- Also- Oh, go ahead.
6:16
I'm sorry... I was just gonna say, also it's this weird thing too where, okay, they're winning and they're what? Nine, nine and two in the playoffs, but the level of competition is so bad where it's hard to factor in.
6:25
Like, oh, I, I mean, these aren't really... At least in the first two rounds, the Heat without Butler and all those guys, the Cavs with nobody, those aren't really, like, NBA playoff teams, so...
6:34
And then you throw in a couple of losses, a couple of blowout losses in there, I mean, I don't know what to do with them. Yeah.
6:39
So I think the Pacers have a puncher's chance, and I absolutely think the T-Wolves would smoke 'em in the finals. Um, right now if you, if I had to say, okay, so how's the series gonna end?
6:47
What's gonna, what's gonna be the final game tally in this Eastern Conference finals you would say? Uh, well, if, if, uh, Boston in five. I woulda said six yesterday probably. I just hate the fact that Indy got one.
7:05
Indy won a game. Yes, they did. And just gave it back. Yeah. That w- that r- that always worries me. It's- Especially when you're the lesser team. If you're the better team, okay.
7:11
You know, a long series, you can get over it. The fact that you're the underdog and man, you had one, you had one on the road, put all the pressure on Bo- in the world on Boston in game two, now you gotta go do it again.
7:21
That, that does worry me. Yeah, I heard some people this morning say, "Oh man, Indy, Indy coulda, Indy shoulda stole that game." I was like, "No, Boston stole it." Like, Indy didn't steal anything. Uh, okay.
7:30
Western Conference. You have any thoughts here? T-Wolves, Mavericks. I love, love, love, love over five and a half games minus 160. I, I just, I, I don't see anybody sweeping. I don't see anyone winning in five.
7:40
To me, this is a long series. This is one where like, uh, boy, middle of OKC-Dallas I lost confidence.
7:47
You know, Minnesota-Denver it was hard to have any confidence after the first three or four games just, uh, of what you were watching and where, what direction it was going.
7:53
This one I'd be surprised if it's a short series. So minus 160, there's some juice there, but I, I... You know, how does anybody sweep or win in five here? These are very evenly matched teams.
8:02
Um, I, I, if Dallas w- if Luka was healthy, I'd probably pick Dallas. I just don't know that he's healthy.
8:07
Then you have the other, every other night nature of this series where, I don't know, can Luka, with all the bodies Minnesota, you know, has to throw at 'em, is, is Luka gonna get worn down?
8:17
Dallas does have the extra day of rest. But to me, very even teams. The fact that Minnesota does have the seventh game just feels like they have more depth.
8:25
I'll, I'll kind of have a cop-out here and take Minnesota in seven, but I love the over five and a half games. Nobody's winning this in four or five, I wouldn't think. Wow.
8:32
Hearing a l- hearing a lot of different opinions anecdotally about the, uh, length of this series. Uh, has anybody ever won an NBA championship at the pace that Luka Dončić plays basketball? Just point that out.
8:42
[laughs] It's like, "Oh, God." I didn't miss... I, I must have missed it. Who liked the short series? Uh, I think JBT did. Did he not earlier?
8:48
Uh, he, he threw out he wouldn't be surprised if Minnesota- Wouldn't be surprised. Yeah... Minnesota won this in, you know, five or something like that. Yeah.
8:54
I do think that's the- That's what- Like, like, Will, if I told you one team won in five, who would, who would you say wi- wins it though? Minnesota just 'cause they have the first two at home.
9:02
They could do the, the thing where they get the first two at home, they split, and then they, they close it out in five. Um, i- I would think...
9:09
Boy, I'm just, I'm wired, I'm conditioned to believe that home court matters. But after the last series in the west, I mean, the, the road teams went eight and five.
9:16
And really if OKC didn't gag that game up Saturday night, and boy, they ga- they gagged that game up 100 different ways, uh, the road teams would've gone nine and four in round two. And we're just not wired to that.
9:25
You know, game seven at home's supposed to mean something. Home court in general's supposed to mean something. So I'm gonna, I'm gonna think these teams trade punches and play a longer series here.
9:32
Let me, let me piggyback that wonderful question from you, Kelly Bitlan. Uh, if I told you one of these series and only one went seven, which series would it be? I think you, I already got the answer from you.
9:42
Yeah, this one. The west one. See, I'm not so sure. This one. I think I'd go the other way. I think it's fascinating. Do you have any space? Yeah.
9:50
I would say this series too, but I think it is fascinating the different answers of- Yeah... what's the, what's the takeaway from last night, right? Is that the sh- the one shot Indy had? Yeah, I don't see it that way.
10:01
Or is it did they prove they're competitive and can stick with that team throughout this entire series? I don't know. It's gonna be fascinating. We'll see.
10:07
Even if they go down two to nothing, I wouldn't be surprised if it comes back two to two. By the way, if they w- if the Pacers went up two to one, we would have to sit here and say, "Oh, the series should be over.
10:14
Should be over now. It's three nothing." Um, okay, real quick, baseball, what do you got today? Yeah, I love KC-Detroit under, uh, under seven, under three and a half first five. Uh, Reagan's against Skubal.
10:25
That's a hell of a pitching matchup. So I'm gonna play the under. I always kind of prefer the, uh, the first five under. I don't want to get involved in extra innings or bullpens, anything like that.
10:33
But I did split my bet. I did play both under. I think that'll be, uh, you know, a 2-1-3-2 kind of game. Skubal's been great. Skubal's, uh, the short shot here to win. Cy Young. Reagan's a really good pitcher.
10:42
So this is, I think, 2:00 Eastern start. This, this should be a fun pitching matchup. I did play the under here. And hopefully people listened last week 'cause I was on last week talking about Judge 16-1 MVP. Yes.
10:51
In 24 hours it was like four to one, five to one. So that, uh... K- kind of wish I'd gotten m- more down. Shoulda bet more as they say. But yeah, that's, uh, hopefully people tail along with that one.
11:00
See what he did there? Shoulda bet more. See what he did there? Got a pro. See what you did.
11:03
[laughs] By the way, to your point about, like, not wanting to deal with, like, later, w- it feels like we have this rash of late inning comebacks. Another one last night. The Pirates were 0 and 589- Oh...
11:14
when trailing by four plus runs in the ninth. Yesterday they come back and beat the Giants with O'Neal Cruz. The two hardest hit balls of the year. Oh, stop.
11:23
The one that tied the game 121 and a half miles per hour off his bat. Geez. Brutal loss for the Giants. Brutal. Thank you, Will. Appreciate it, man. All right. See you, guys. Thanks for having me.
11:34
Will Hill @NotTheWillHill. Shoulda Bet More, name of the podcast. I was on the one on Sunday night. Oh. Will and I were like, "What the hell did we just watch?" Talking about the T-Wolves and the, uh, the Nuggets.
11:45
Uh, we'll come back. Who's starting week one in the NFL? You can make a bet on this. That's next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. It's the Numbers Game. Gil Alexander.
12:02
Coming up, we're gonna talk NFL week one starting quarterback odds. But first, here's Stormy Bonta-Toney with your moment of zen This is your betting moment of Zen, brought to you by Zyn nicotine pouches.
12:15
Find your moment of Zen at zyn.com. Stormy, Bunny, Tony here with VSAN, the sports betting network. Time to talk Defensive Rookie of the Year in the NFL.
12:24
While Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner didn't end up the first defensive player off the board as expected in this year's draft, the consensus All-American is at the top of the board at four to one odds to bring home some rookie hardware to Minnesota.
12:36
It was the Colts, actually, who swung first for defense at pick 15, taking a chance on Laiatu Latu out of UCLA, who at one point had to medically retire from football, came back only to lead the FBS in sacks the last two years.
12:47
Newly minted Eagle Quinyon Mitchell out of Toledo at 11 to one was the only non-Power Five player selected in the first round. Also 11 to one, two-time All-American Jared Verse, who landed with the Rams.
12:56
And rounding out the short shots, Dolphins rookie Chop Robinson at 13 to one. This has been your daily moment of Zen. Learn more about Zyn smoke-free nicotine pouches at zyn.com. Warning: this product contains nicotine.
13:06
Nicotine is an addictive chemical. Back on our numbers game, live from Bar Canada at The D. Can I say on air what I said off air?
13:13
My favorite VSAN promo going now is Stormy going through the, the different sports and being like, "And that's why we're here." Mm-hmm. So natural, as if the camera was not rolling. And she does it there again.
13:23
It's fantastic. Stormy, extremely talented. Extremely talented. Uh, we get tweets at Beat in the Book.
13:28
Mark Meltzer, Melts Vegas, uh, in case you're looking for Gil in July, oh, he's, uh, put up a poster of a, uh, Ja Rule Fat Joe Slick Rick Dougie Fresh concert. [laughs] I'd like to MC one of these please.
13:40
Vegas- Where's that at? Uh, it is at, thanks for asking. Ja Rule, come on. I'm, I'm- [laughs] Ja- I'm there in a second. Let's go... Ja Rule. [laughs] It's Ja Rule. By the way, we get a tweet from, uh, DurbinP24.
13:50
He goes, "Ja Rule has to mess everything up on that card," he said. Um, man, [laughs] it's so funny he said that. That's not, that's not like him.
13:57
[laughs] I think I was on a flight once with this g- with this guy who goes, "Is that Ja Rule over there?" And I was like, "It's not Ja Rule." Matthew Mayberry, "Hey, Gil, do you like the Pacers in this series?
14:06
I haven't heard you mention it." [laughs] He says, "Actually, LOL, I'm with you. I bet Pacers in seven and Celtics in six." Oh, great. "Love Pacers plus two and a half games as my best bet."
14:16
I'll tell you what I have, what I feel vindicated about already. Remember how I went on the rant about how ESPN ought to do better by the Pacers? Mm-hmm.
14:23
Because they, uh, the whole s- you know, the first of all, the whole run-up where Stephen A's like, "New York, stand up," then the pregame show where he's giving Spike Lee a pep talk.
14:33
They're doing an arrival video, for God's sakes, with the players, and then Stephen A.
14:37
Then at halftime, Bob Myers is talking about how OG Anunoby could only go four and a half minutes while the Pacers are killing the Knicks.
14:43
And then down the stretch, Breen, Redick, and Doris Burke eulogizing the Knicks as if they've won four championships. Stop it. Well, Tim Legler, do you see this?
14:53
Tim Legler went on with Russillo, and he says, "I've been wanting to talk about the Pacers, I can't tell you how many times. I wish we had the video of how many times I want to talk about the Pacers this year."
15:03
But he said it wasn't sexy enough. Yeah. How about that? Yeah. Those uncomfortable, uh, meetings in the newsroom. Yeah. All right, this is cool. Um- Sorry, sorry Legs, but good job on that three-point shooting.
15:18
1996 three-point, uh, contest champion. I'm not sure who you're talking about. They wouldn't screw up the year. [laughs] Greatest percentage of three-pointers in 1995. Not sure who we're that on. 95 Bullets, by the way.
15:26
Webber, Howard, Legler, George Muran. That's just George being George. What a team. Uh, okay. Um, NFL, who's playing quarterback week one? I love these markets. Yeah. Um, team by team. Not every team, obviously.
15:44
Some teams are obvious. But, um, teams particularly with rookie quarterbacks pose a betting question and, uh, might trigger a bet from you. Let's go through these one by one. These are courtesy of DraftKings.
15:57
Nice job on them to post this. Broncos, Bo Nix minus 425, Jared Stidham plus 450, Zach Wilson 10 to 1. That's their quarterback room, Kelly. Remember, it's a room in a building.
16:09
[laughs] That's how NFL people talk about it now. In the building. That's their quarterback room. That's right, yeah. You're not in the building or in the room.
16:16
Uh, Bo Nix minus 425, I would not make a bet here because Sean Payton has staking his entire reputation on Bo Nix. Yeah. Yeah.
16:24
I, I think priced correctly though, like I don't know that I would be s- too much steeper than that, though e- like I do think there is a slim chance that he doesn't start week one, but it's very slim, 'cause as you, as you said, he's basically staked his whole reputation.
16:38
Yeah, and I'm sure- And what does this team do? And I'm sure Sean Par- Sean Payton won't be arrogant about it the whole way through. I'm sure he won't be at all. D- I...
16:44
There's almost like a part of me that w- like wants to see the Broncos succeed so I can apologize for everything I think about them right now, because oh my God, I think this franchise is gonna be a disaster for the next- [exhales]...
16:56
five, 10 years. Don't get me started. By the way, and for those people who say like, "Sean Payton is such a quarterback whisperer," I'm sorry, besides Drew Brees, can you give me the list? Drew Brees.
17:06
Raiders, Gardner Minshew minus 180, Aiden O'Connell plus 130. Hmm. Um, so there are a couple on here, by the way, that I would love to bet. This one. But this one you would? Who would you bet here? Yeah.
17:21
The, the Raiders just brought in Gardner Minshew. Gardner Minshew is not starting week one for th- for this team? Minus 180.
17:26
After what you saw out of Aiden O'Connell last year, you're rolling it back with Aiden O'Connell week one? I'm gonna tell you the one I wanna bet is the next one.
17:33
The Vikings, Sam Darnold is minus 155 and JJ McCarthy is plus 120. Now, for those who are like, "Well, it's gotta be JJ McCarthy," no.
17:42
Apparently, the Vikings want to do everything to start Sam Darnold, barring an injury.
17:49
There is even some weird talk, weird buzz out there, that they have this intention to play Darn- that they would play Darnold the whole year if it went okay. Okay.
17:59
But game one, I would absolutely bet the minus 155 on Darnold. Of course, injuries could, could crush you here. But barring an injury, I think that's the best bet on the board.
18:08
I mean, that, that is, so glad you brought it up before we go too crazy on this, 'cause a couple of these I do really love. That is the, that's the big thing, right? Yes. Injuries occur. Yeah.
18:15
If you're betting this right now- Yeah... it is May 22nd. There is a lot of, a lot of practices, [laughs] a lot of training camp to come, uh, where these guys can get injured.
18:24
But I'm w- like This is, the Vikings have basically said this is their plan all along. Like, this is why they signed Sam Darnold, right? It w- it was to give McCarthy the time to, to get ready.
18:35
And I, I guess I'd be shocked if it ended, really ended up taking [laughs] that long before McCarthy's in there playing, but week- Yeah, no, but- But week one...
18:42
but week one minus 155 doesn't seem like too steep a price to pay there. Th- they've basically told everybody this is the plan. [laughs] Sometimes you have to believe what they're telling you. That, that's, yeah.
18:51
We are going to play Sam Darnold. Okay, that's good enough for me, why not, minus 155. Uh, Patriots, Jacoby Brissett is minus 300, Drake May plus 225.
19:00
I think that the Patriots probably wanna start Jacoby Brissett week one. I think so too. I think this one's properly priced, though. Yeah. Like, I do, uh, uh, I think there's a chance.
19:10
I, I mean, if Drake May looks incredible for some reason in training camp, you're not, why, why p- put Brissett out there? Like, you might as well just go right away with May. I don't think it's gonna happen.
19:19
I think it's most likely Brissett starting, like you said, but... And then the biggest favorite of all these, the Seahawks. Geno Smith is minus 600. Sam Howell, acquired from the Washington Commanders, plus 390.
19:32
Matt Brown and I, uh, disagreed on this one, I believe, when he was, uh- Oh. Who took the s- He was fil- when he was filling in. I was... I, I thought this, it, it was, this one has moved the most.
19:41
I forget what it was, it was like Geno minus 250 or something. Yeah, I was gonna say, Geno's a lock here, right? I was like, "Geno, for sure." Yeah.
19:48
I don't wanna misquote Ma- Matt, but I believe Matt was like, "Well, why would they bring in Sam Howell?" Like, you're bringing in Sam Howell. Yeah, but what has Geno done wrong?
19:55
I, I mean, I guess a bit of a s- I mean, I get it, why would they bring in Sam Howell? But then, but now week one. I mean, he's had a little bit of a step back last year.
20:00
But I, I don't think there's any plans to move on from him immediately at least. Well, here's the thing about all of these things.
20:06
So you bring in Sam Howell, and I get the, I get the, the argument of why would you bring in Sam Howell. The problem with this is always, like, let's do it in, from a human perspective.
20:14
So if they decided that they wanted to start Sam Howell week one, what happens if Sam Howell plays bad out of the gate? Yeah, no, this is a great point. Right?
20:25
So it's like for- Teams screw themselves up so much- That's right... with this stuff.
20:28
For them, it's a much better tact to just, if, if they have the intention, and clearly they have some intention with Sam Howell, that they traded for him. If they have the intention to
20:40
elevate him to QB one at some point if Geno messes up, the way to play it is to start Geno at the beginning and let that happen, right? Right. Correct. So I, I- That, that's the way I would view it too, yes. Yeah.
20:50
So I think Geno Smith. I, so I basically- [laughs] I mean, well, like we have seen, we've seen NFL teams do stupider things, right? Of course, yeah. Like, that makes a lot of sense to me, Gil, but [laughs]... Yeah.
20:59
And it's not Pete Carroll anymore, so there's that. Right.
21:02
Um, so basically looking at all these, Broncos, Raiders, Vikings, Patriots, Seahawks, I believe the best bet is Sam Darnold, believe it or not, with the Vikings at minus 155 to start week one.
21:13
If this, if this was available, I'd bet, I'd bet Gardner Minshew and I'd bet Sam Darnold. Yeah. I think your confidence in Minshew is, starting week one, is probably correct as well, minus 180.
21:24
Again, we cannot bet these, but these, so whenever we do stuff, uh, that are, is out of state, and specifically at DraftKings, which we couldn't even if it was in state, we always like to say, "Would we actually bet these or not?"
21:35
This is one of these where we actually would. Yes. In the case of Darnold and Minshew with the Vikings and Raiders specifically. But I do think it's Bo Nix. I think Bo Nix is correct as a $4 favorite.
21:45
I think Jacoby Brissett is correct as a $3 favorite in New England. And I do think Geno's correct as a $6 favorite in Seattle. Injuries, once again, can torpedo all of this. Yes. Yep.
21:53
So please don't come back if somebody breaks a leg and say, "Hey, you were wrong."
21:57
[laughs] I, like this is one of those, like, hey, I know we complain about, uh, you know, different, different, uh, markets being limited in and stuff like that.
22:04
This is one you probably don't wanna be betting heavily into anyways because of injuries. [laughs] That's right. That's right. So yeah. Like, we'd be betting them, but yes, I'm not going crazy, uh, in crazy.
22:12
But it's fun to talk about. Yeah, I mean, if, if they were p- let's say if they were posting an obvious team like the Jets, then they're just posting about an injury. Right. Right? Yeah. Correct, correct.
22:21
Yeah, the, a- and what do, I mean, what, what has been at least last off-season, I wanna see the off, say the off-season before DraftKings has posted these.
22:28
I don't remember liking [laughs] bets as much as I like these two. I, I, uh- Like, we definitely talked about this last summer... I think you're correct. Yeah. I think you're, I think you're right in that memory.
22:39
Uh, Jason Weingarten's on the other side. All his bets, how his trip to London was. Did he wear a coat and tie? All the burning questions next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
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23:39
Gil Alexander, Kelly Billings, uh, Jason Weingarten st- uh, standing by. Real quick, uh, with those, uh, week one quarterback starts. Yeah. When you did them with Matt, there was a Steelers one that was up at that point?
23:51
There were a couple others that I didn't include. They were- Oh, okay... so heav- heavily, uh, there were a couple others, yeah. Steelers are up there now. I think Russell Wilson's like minus 1,000- Massive favorite...
23:59
or something like that. Yeah. I just didn't even include him, uh, this time around. But I wanted to look at those odds 'cause I wanted to make sure I was remembering right on Geno.
24:05
Geno was minus 330 when Matt and I were first discussing it, so he's taking money. But then, like, I, I think kind of interestingly, uh, O'Connell, uh, uh, O'Connell and J.J. McCarthy have taken money. Yeah.
24:20
Well, if you take the Vikings at their word. Oh, I'm sorry, not McCarthy, May. Drake May and- Oh, Drake May. Okay... O'Connell have taken money. Yeah, I mean, I don't know.
24:28
I guess that could change with, with training camp. But I mean, I'd start Jakobi Brissett start the season too. I would too. Yeah.
24:35
I mean, a- again, it seems like that was their plan, and they basically s- told everybody that's their plan. But if Drake Day starts, I think it's because he has an incredible training camp, right? Right.
24:44
And, and it's why hold this kid back? That's right. Let him go. Ladies and gentlemen, this man was just in London, England, watching Crawley Town go from League Two to League One. League Two champions. Pardon me.
24:54
His name is Jason Weingarten. He comes to us from under a cloud of smoke, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. How you doing, Jason? Pretty good. Uh, it was fun, fun trip, quick trip.
25:03
But, uh, yeah, got to see Crawley play at Wembley. They, they're not the league champs, by the way. They, uh, they... I think, you know, you win the playoffs, not the same as winning the league. But, uh- Oh, sorry...
25:12
they won, they won the playoffs. They're the, they won the promotion, whatever. They won the promotion. Promotion. That's all that matters. They won the playoffs. They are not League Two champs.
25:19
They're headed to League One nonetheless. That's right, I forgot. Different, different, uh, currency there. Uh, take us through that. You flew Thursday night. Um, and I was mentioning this on air the other day.
25:30
This is how dumb I am. So I was considering going briefly, 'cause you're like, "Hey, you wanna go to London?"
25:35
And then when I turned on the TV right, and like Preston and Rufus are on camera and they're wearing coats, coats and ties, it never, like, it never occurred to me that we should have been wearing coats and ties.
25:45
Did you wear a coat and tie? Yes. I was wearing a suit and tie. Uh, you had to wear a suit and tie to sit in the box. Um, so yeah, I was, I was all suited up. How, um, w- Well, you had to You had to.
26:00
You're not allowed in it without a coat and tie. How about that? Yeah, everyone was, everyone was wearing suits, which is kind of, kind of unusual, but whatever. But like, did you guys know that?
26:09
Did you talk amongst yourselves about that? 'Cause like Kelly and I are looking at each other like, "How are we supposed to know that?" Yeah, I mean, they told us before we came- Oh, okay...
26:16
you gotta bring a, yeah, like a dress code sort of thing. [laughs] Like, like is that a team rule or just like a soccer dress code rule? You know what I mean? Like Wimb- like Wimbledon wearing all white.
26:23
That's a, that's a Wim- that's a Wembley rule, right? Uh, something like that. I mean, I don't beli- I don't think it has anything to do with the team. It had to do with sitting- Okay... in the, in the royal box.
26:33
Uh, you said it also, which I think was a great line. You, you texted me, "Can you imagine people betting against Preston Johnson?" I think that, that sums it up, doesn't it? Yeah.
26:43
I mean, uh, it, it wasn't always, uh, smooth sailing, and there were a whole bunch of bumps, especially at the beginning.
26:50
But, uh, it was really unfortunate to see the fans and the way they kind of came out against Preston, knowing Preston personally and say, thinking and knowing, you know, there's nobody you'd rather have be the owner of your club than this guy, the amount, the amount he cares and, you know, what he's putting into this personally.
27:09
Yeah. Um, and, and the fans just didn't care. Um, now we're champions and w- I don't know, what are they gonna say now? There's really nothing they can say. Yeah. So congratulations.
27:19
Yeah, we don't live in a world where people do mea culpas very, uh, easily, that's for sure.
27:23
Th- there have been, there have been a lot of people that have come around and have said, you know, congratulations to Preston and yeah, we're, you know.
27:30
But they still, they held up banners that said they want him out and- [laughs]... you know, whatever. Eh, get out of here. Uh, okay. Uh, baseball, have you been able now to sort of gravitate back towards baseball? Yeah.
27:44
You know, I still, still get to bet baseball every day. Um, I don't necessarily get to watch as much baseball every day. Um, not, not paying as much attention to the props, which has actually been probably good.
27:56
And, uh, you know, seeing, seeing the way some of the first innings have go- gone some of these days, I've probably saved myself a lot of money.
28:02
'Cause you are, let me clarify that, because you are a yes, you, you, you lean yes on first inning bets, yes a run will be scored, and a lot of scoreless first innings is what you're saying? Uh, yeah.
28:15
I mean, I, like I don't follow it day to day, but I saw there were a couple days where they were like heavily no, like, you know, three in 12 sort of days to the no.
28:23
And if you bet a lot of them, that'll really ruin your week pretty quick.
28:27
Um, there's still p- you know, really good spots and, you know, there's, there's like one I'm gonna play today, but uh, you know, just going through them and playing the whole slate has not, uh, not been a thing for me the last couple weeks.
28:40
And like I said, it's probably fortunately ended up saving me money, um, just, you know, avoiding probably good bets that end up losing. Care to share which game you are thinking of betting? Tigers, Royals, yes.
28:54
I'm gonna get a really good number on that. I know it's an early game. It's like 11:00 AM on the West Coast. Um, but if you weigh it, I see plus 125s right now. Probably easily gonna go north of 135.
29:06
I'll play that at 1, 135. You know, I know, I know it's got the good pitchers and, you know, you get a, you get a premium there. So, um, I'll be, I'll be happy to play a big number on that game.
29:16
And again, if it loses, it's only one game. Yep. And that is, uh, Skubal against Reagan. So that is the, again, with the first innings, that is what this cottage industry of, uh, yes...
29:28
Uh, excuse me, of no runs will be scored or what they call nerfis. That's what that cottage industry of nerfis- The stupidest bettors in the world- This, the-...
29:36
is what we should call them I was just gonna ask you, is there anything- [laughs]... that you and I have sort of talked about through the years that you've seen sprout up that annoys you more than that? Mm.
29:48
Uh, I mean, just gambling, no. I, I, I, I, I've seen real estate Twitter sprout up. I don't really like that. [laughs] But, but that's, that's, that's separate. That's a different, that's a different show. Yes.
30:00
The Jason Weingarten Beyond Sports Betting Show is, uh, is coming to a, uh, a network near you. Uh, okay, so that's your only bet the first inning, Tigers, Royals. Um, no. Uh, excuse me.
30:11
I bet, I bet Balt- Yes, the first run will be scored. Yes. I bet Baltimore today. I got 121 on Baltimore. Uh, Kyle Gibson, I, I don't know why we're giving him such respect against Baltimore.
30:21
Give me, uh, give me Baltimore there today. Um, that's another day game. I'm happy we're finally getting some day games today. Um- Oh, great day of day baseball today. Yep. Love it.
30:31
Yeah, gotta, gotta take advantage of the day games. Um, and you bet Rose Zhang before your trip to London. You like to say it was the, uh, trip that Rose Zhang built for you I did. That- that's... It's kind of funny.
30:44
It's the only, uh, the only lady who's won besides Nelly Korda in, like, the last two months. Um, Rose, you know, had to beat her by like 10 shots, [clears throat] um, to win.
30:56
And then- Do you bet her, do you bet her every tournament, by the way?
30:59
Like, maybe for, you know, like not, not, not the same amount, but like, yeah, I'll bet her for 100 bucks, 200 bucks just to have some money on her, um, if I'm, if I'm not betting it for more.
31:09
But, like, this last week, for example, I did, I did bet a little bit on her. I expected her to still play well after the win. She withdrew after like three holes. There was...
31:18
There were like 10 withdrawals in the first two rounds of the, the ladies tournament this last week. They said there was, like, food poisoning going around or something.
31:25
But that was kind of annoying to, to see someone withdraw after three holes. You know, you could have just gotten sick before you teed off or something.
31:33
[laughs] Yeah, that is, from a betting standpoint, that is annoying. Three holes in.
31:38
Um, it's sort of the, uh, the opposite of the tennis thing that annoys you, which is, "Oh, look, the player I bet on is at five games of the third set.
31:45
All I have is one more to win," and then the other person takes their toys and go, and goes home and it's a refund. Um, okay, anything else you're betting on in the whole landscape of things?
31:55
I just bought a, a claw machine. You know, I'm gonna, gonna- [laughs]... make that a ga- a gambling game. Oh, God Looking, looking for somewhere to put it. Uh- [laughs] I didn't know if you wanted to talk about this.
32:02
Yes I'm thinking like a, a lobby of a, a lobby of a 24-hour restaurant or something. Or I might fill it with, like, lotto tickets and cigarettes and put it in a bar or something.
32:11
So I don't know what I'm gonna do with it, but- So Jason-...
32:13
I'll turn it into some sort of gambling game Jason tells me he's buying a claw machine, to which I respond as anyone would, "Wait, a claw machine from like a carnival?" He goes, "That's correct."
32:24
So what are you- That's the coolest thing you've ever said, Jason. Yeah. [laughs] Okay, so- I, I am so on board with this. Yeah What... So what do you plan on... You said lottery tickets.
32:31
Then you said you wanted to put, like, sports collectibles in there, too? Yeah, baseball cards. Let's see if I can get some futures, throw a bunch of futures tickets in there, like $5 future tickets, maybe some Zin.
32:41
I hear Zin's real popular recently. [laughs] Gonna go put it in a, put it in a bar. Think about it, you're drunk at a bar. You, like, want a pack of cigarettes. You're gonna start throwing dollars in my machine.
32:49
I'm gonna get rich. [laughs] They put them in casinos. I'm- They put them in casinos [laughs] Yeah. Exactly. That's where I, that's where I got the idea. I saw one at Circa. I couldn't believe it.
32:59
Did you actively look for a claw machine, or did it just come up on your screen? Uh, one of my friends said we should buy a claw machine, and I looked on eBay and there was actually one someone was selling in LA.
33:12
Uh, it was like 600 bucks, which is totally reasonable, and, uh, we went and got it. And that's, that's how we got a claw machine. It's, it's, that's how it works. 'Cause that's what you and I would think, Kelly.
33:21
We'd see it, we'd be, "600 bucks? That's totally reasonable." I, I speak for yourself. [laughs] I am so on board with Jason on this. I would have done the same thing.
33:29
He's in- You can all thank Nas Reid for, uh, this investment. A claw machine that Nas Reid built. Thank you, Jason. Appreciate it. Thank you for having me. I'll talk to you guys later. At Spreadapedia.
33:40
We'll come back, golf next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
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34:12
Download the DraftKing Sportsbook app now and use code VSIN, that's V-S-I-N. The crown is yours. We get tweets at Beating the Book. Always appreciate the feedback. Prime Time, Cowboys_Cubs1. He said, uh...
34:23
Oh, 'cause we were praising Stormy earlier. He says, "So you're saying Story Money Tony has done it again." Tony, Tony, Tony, by the way. Mm. See what he did there? Mm. Uh, he also asked Jason to put on a coke diet soda.
34:33
Oh, uh, Buddhist Man, "No offense to, uh, Siya Najah, but when I heard, 'Ladies and gentlemen, you will notice that our next guest never goes to a gym and is not well-groomed at all,' I instantly thought you were introducing the manifestation of physical perfection, Todd Wishnev, as seen below."
34:48
I don't know. Gotta get Wishnev back on. I think it took Si a second to realize what... Uh, that, that was a compliment. [laughs] You were, you were being facetious. Oh, of course. Um,
34:57
can we just say one thing about Jason's claw- One thing?... idea? First of all, this is my imitation of not the guy on the claw, but the guy directing the guy on the claw. Right. You gotta work in teams.
35:10
You gotta work in teams. Okay, a little to the left. Okay. No, no, no. To the... Little back. No, right. It's all right. Uh, uh. And you always ran into the duo that was super confident.
35:19
Like, everybody knows somebody in their life that thinks they can beat the claw machine, like every time.
35:25
It is a fun- It's larger in casinos now You have a shot with stuffed animals because you could actually lay the claw into them.
35:31
But as Sean McCollum behind the scenes here just told us, there's a ran- He believes that the claw machines have a random, uh, random generator onto- The spin... how tight they squeeze on each and every squeeze. Oh.
35:45
So, like, if you own a claw machine, maybe that's something you can set, huh? That's what you're saying? Jason Weingarten's finest harebrained scheme of them all.
35:53
I really w- Jason, can I please be there when you go to whatever bar- [laughs]... or whatever to try to sell this idea? Like, can you imagine- That'd be great... Jason walking, being like, "Look, I got a claw machine.
36:01
I don't know what I'm gonna put in there, but, like, let's talk about it." Uh, you got thoughts on the, uh, Charles Schwab, sir? I do. I do. Charles Schwab Challenge going on this week. Uh, Scheffler stuff, man.
36:12
It's interesting. Uh, if, if... I don't know what to make of it. This is... Uh, like, I would...
36:18
How often in the past couple months have I said, "Yeah," like, just like Siya did, "I'm looking in the winner without market. I'm looking to b- go light on outrights this week"?
36:27
I don't know where Scheffler's head's gonna be at. I... And, like, it...
36:30
And this is kind of home tournament for him, Gil, so this could be Cruz out of bed [laughs] going to win this thing, like, with- without having to worry about it.
36:39
The-- below him, though, there is not a ton of guys that I am really scared about, uh, uh, about at the top of this board. Morikawa's come on lately.
36:48
I do think the odds are appropriate with how, uh, the weakened field, uh, for him to be at 12/1. Homa, Spieth's, Spieth's been good here in the past. He, he played terribly recently. I am on Finau.
36:58
I did land on Finau last week in a top tw- uh, top 20 play, uh, at, at the PGA. His irons are coming on. Led the, led the field in approach last week.
37:08
It's gonna be appro- uh, see what ran through this, but you're off the tee, distance mitigated at a course lice- l- like this, w- accuracy, premium in on, on accuracy off the tee if you are modeling stuff at home or looking at stats.
37:21
Big time approach course here. Small greens and pu- putting, putting, putting.
37:25
One of the few tournaments, Gil, that really do factor in putting stats because this is, just historically, everybody who wins this one has a crazy, crazy, uh, big s- uh, putting week y- uh, past five, six years.
37:37
Go look at the strokes gained putting numbers. It's insane. Um, so I really dial- dialed in on those three basic things.
37:42
Who's gonna be accurate off the tee, great on approach, putt, a- and has putted really well this year. Finau, I, outright wise, where I landed on, Tony Finau, 30/1, uh, got him at. Look, the putter hasn't been great.
37:54
This is a guy that di- take that out of the bag right now, but if he can have a spike putting week, he's, the irons are back. His approach game is really strong right now. Uh, Sia said I was not in my head.
38:04
I love Sepp Straka, uh, and Aaron Rai this week. I did not go with an outright on Aaron Rai. I did go Sepp Straka, though, 50/1. Just to... I mean, these are longer bobs.
38:13
I, absolutely Scheffler, if he's in this tournament and his mind is right, he should be the guy, uh, that is probably winning this thing. But I took some b- I took some longer shots. It's called long shots.
38:22
Uh, [laughs] Sepp Straka 50/1. Thomas Detry, interesting case right now. This guy is putting lights out. Like, uh, he is gaining on the field, like four-plus strokes putting in his past six tournaments, I believe.
38:36
Out of control putting right now. Play-- had a good showing at the PGA, so I do like him this week. Played an outright on him. And I'm going back to Akshay Bhatia.
38:43
He's a guy I'd played, uh, a few weeks ago, and he had really gotten in a, in a rhythm of playing him, uh, in some markets. Like him in an outright here. His game's very suited for this, uh, this course.
38:52
So going back, back to him after a couple rough outings by him. Uh, outright top 20 for him, for me. Uh, and we often talk about this, Gil, with tournament matchups. Tournament matchup's the best way to bet golf. Yep.
39:05
The problem is you can't design what matchup you want to build, right? So all, you gotta go with whatever the book gives you, which means some weeks you're gonna have very few that you actually really like. Yep.
39:14
And some weeks you're gonna have a lot. You guys ever talk about that on, on, uh, Long Shots, about the origin of those matchups? Yeah, we do. We do. Yeah.
39:20
And, and it's, it's comical because, like, the, the guys that set odds run the same type of stuff that we do. So, like, the, I mean, there are Straka and Aaron Rai matchups out there, right?
39:31
Like, versus each other, where I'm like, "I have no interest in that," right? Yeah. So it, it is funny how it, it always ends up that way.
39:37
I can't wait till a book lets you, lets you match up with whoever you want- Custom made matchups... and adjust the odds appropriately- Yeah... to what they think. That would be a very nice addition.
39:46
Golf, the sport most ripe for gambling revolution. That's right. That's right. Um, Aaron Rai, though, I, I love him.
39:52
I, the last 12 rounds, 10th on good drives, which means you're either in the fairway or just off the fairway and hitting the green on approach. Fourth in fairways hit, eighth on approach.
40:01
Uh, his putting's getting a little bit better. Do like him. This is a Tom Hoagie course, too. Will Hills guy. Uh, Tom Hoagie's a, accurate off the tee, great on approach. Love to top 20 bet on him this week.
40:12
Uh, playing him there, didn't play an outright. Uh, and his putter's been pre, uh, pretty good this year. Seven top 20s for him.
40:18
The one guy I can't, can't get rid of, he's great when he's, uh, when you're, you're looking for distance off the tee, Gil. Still keeps popping up in my numbers. Keith Mitchell, I'm just going top 40 this week.
40:26
You love Keith Mitchell. L- I, I love him th- this year for some reason. I don't know why, but even money on a top 40 I will take. He has had seven top 20s this year, so hopefully even money pays off nice on a top 40.
40:37
Matchups real q- quick. Finau over Min Woo Lee, Straka over Chris Kirk, Hoagie over Billy Horschel, and Keith Mitchell over Tom Kim. Uh, I am on the Guardians once again today. First five, full game.
40:50
It's Tristan McKenzie for the Guardians. It's a day game. This is happening about, uh, hour and a half after we go off here.
40:56
Uh, Tristan McKenzie going up against José Quintana of the Mets as, uh, the Guardians looking for another sweep here. Uh, consecutive sweeps after they, uh, swept the Twink- uh, the Twins, the Twinkies.
41:09
Uh, now they're trying to sweep the Mets, and they will be on the road after this again, part of our big, um, separate, but part of our big May macro bet on the Guardians as they just keep on winning, trying to get back in this.
41:20
Come on, Phillies, lose a game. Mm-hmm. Um, also French Open for those who are like, "Hey, when's the French Open pod?" That is tomorrow. Uh, I gotta hit up Dan Weston. Uh, Drew Dinsick and I will, uh, do this.
41:31
Dan Weston, hopefully. Totally forgot Dan. [laughs] Yeah, forgot. I gotta hit up Dan Weston as well and, uh, see if he's available. But we'll talk about tennis' second slam tomorrow after the show.
41:40
The Beating the Book podcast, French Open betting special will be recorded tomorrow, so everybody can have it. That, once again, Iga Swiatek settling in as a minus 150 favorite on the ladies' side.
41:52
And then on the men's side, it is a free-for-all, I mean free-for-all, between the likes of Carlitos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Jannik Sinner, Sascha Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, all of those in single digits.
42:07
Alcaraz at two to one is the short shot. Uh, Casper Ruud is at 12/1, and Rafa, who has won 14 of these in probably his last French Open ever, 14/1. Uh, I can't get behind Rafa, sorry.
42:21
As great as he's been, I think it's over. Um, that's certainly not stepping out on a limb. Casper Ruud is a, uh, two-time finalist here in the last two years, even though he lost both.
42:30
And then you've got S- Tsitsipas who has been great this year. Sascha Zverev coming off a win in Rome on clay. Sinner's got the hip injury. We don't know what we're getting from him. Carlitos has the arm injury.
42:40
We don't know what we're getting from him. I still think that it's Novak Djokovic's to lose. I really do.
42:48
And I have, uh, I've got parlays with Iga anchored on the ladies' side with Carlitos, with Djokovic, and with Ruud at plus 450, five to one, and 20 to one respectively. I don't know what I'm waiting for.
43:00
It's alw- it's, that's always my, my, my zigzag, I feel like, is I bet, I bet Djokovic every year at the French. [laughs] Do you? Yeah, yeah, yeah.
43:07
Like, like every year it feels like, just 'cause the odds get, you know, he's always a little longer at the French Open, right, than he is on hard courts or on grass. So yeah, I, I think I'm gonna be joining you.
43:17
I think the Iga, Iga-Novak, uh, parlay. I've got a lot of bets. Matt Brown makes fun of my list of bets to make, but, like, like Steelers win total under I had made it, yeah.
43:24
Oh, 'cause you have a, you have a list of bets to make. To make, yes. [laughs] He finds that funny, yes. Yes, he finds that funny. I can see how he would find that funny about you, yes. So that will be going on the list.
43:33
I gotta make that bet at some point. Yeah, we- Iga-Novak parlay... for some reason we don't have the Iga, uh, Casper Ruud as well, which I have up at 20 to 1.
43:40
Okay, and then finally on basketball, and we'll run back on social. We'll run back our first segment, uh, everything about the Pacers-Celtics yesterday. Uh, you are rooting for the Mavericks to win it all.
43:49
That is your future. No. But you also are taking the Mavericks plus the points today? Uh, I am not. Or you recommend it? I played that, I played that parlay for them to win game one, Timberwolves to win the series.
43:59
Gotcha. Sort of a hedge, right? But I do like them in game one tonight. I really do. I think this is their, their best chance. I think Luka gets some time off, looks a little bit healthier here tonight.
44:07
And oh, boy, watch out. I think if you're wa- if Luka looks healthier than he did last series, we might be in for a long one, like Will said. So not just ATS, you would recommend a sprinkle for some folks out there?
44:18
Mm-hmm. Okay. Uh, we've done all we can do. On the radio side, Gojo and Golic are next. If you're watching the pretty pictures, Best Bets is next. Enjoy from VSIN, the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
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