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May 22, 2025
A Numbers Game | May 22, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | May 22, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:35
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
0:19
This to my left, to your right, it's my little buddy Kelly Bittling, everybody. What up? What up? What a time to be alive. Oh, this is so... I'm serious, man.
0:28
We are so fortunate to be able to come into work and talk about human achievement, sports at its finest. Uh, let me quote our buddy Will Hill, "Imagine not loving sports. Imagine not liking sports."
0:43
What you missed last night. Anyway, before we get to that, uh- Yeah, that was... No, keep going. Zach and, Zach and- That was, I didn't know the poetry we were getting this morning...
0:49
[laughs] Zach and Crack coming up on the show. Zach Cohen, our VSiN senior editor. Uh, he'll have thoughts on the NBA, maybe some tennis today, I'm not sure.
0:55
Maybe some preliminary thoughts on the, uh, on the French Open. Zach, Drew, and I doing a French Open podcast, uh- Nice... later today, 11:00 AM Pacific.
1:05
We will, uh, record a podcast about the French Open, tennis's second major. So just a couple notes from Zach on that. Phil Bobbitt, you like yourself some Indy 500? I like some Indy 500. I like some F1 Monaco.
1:16
I like some Coca-Cola 600. Phil's here to talk it all. Look at you. Look at you just- Or the Cup Series that d- definitely didn't confuse me and Gil this morning. Kyle Larson going for the double.
1:26
Wyatt informs us as well. Yeah, he, what, attempted this last year? Didn't get a chance to. Uh, going for the double on this. And then we have some Indy, uh, 500 controversy as well.
1:35
I don't know if you know this, with the, uh, with some Pensy- Penske executives. We'll talk to Phil about that as well.
1:40
And then of course, unscripted with the Crack Man, Bill Krackenberg, our number two, whatever's on his mind. Plus we'll do Are We Sure? Estamos Seguros?
1:47
But we must talk about the game last night in the National Basketball Association.
1:52
The Pacers take a one to nothing lead over the Knicks in their best of seven Eastern Conference Finals series as they take home court advantage, uh, away from the Knicks in...
2:03
It's one of the greatest games I've ever seen. So with that, I'm, I don't think I'm being hyperbolic with that. 138-135 in overtime. The Pacers get it done.
2:14
Um, I mean, I could go back earlier in this game, but what's the point? Let's start in the fourth quarter. Um, Brunson, Jalen Brunson commits his fifth foul with 10:05 left in the game, and the score is 94-91 Knicks.
2:29
Oh, that sounds like a problem for New York. Sounds like a problem for New York, except for the fact that once Brunson is taken off the court, they go on a run.
2:38
The Knicks extended the lead to 99-92, uh, in less than a minute, uh, to go, when Anunoby hit a three and then a turnaround jumper.
2:47
They extended it then to 108-92, a 16-point lead that included two straight fouls on three-point shooters with 7:22 left. That was a 14 to one run at that point. And then they led by as many as 17, 111-94.
3:02
And Brunson got a big rest. Well, this sounds like a problem for Indiana now. 111-94 with 6:26 left. I mean, Katie bar the door, right? It's over.
3:14
I mean, this playoffs has been incredible with comebacks, but it can't happen again. Knicks, let's fast-forward to three minutes and 14 seconds left in this game. Knicks are up 14.
3:25
And folks, if you didn't see this, I just sort of suggest do everything you possibly can to find the tape on this, unless of course, you're a Knicks fan or you had the Knicks in a bet.
3:36
The Knicks are up 14 with 3:14 left. Aaron Nesmith, three-pointer. Good. Brunson then hits a three. New York goes back up by 14 with 2:51 left, Kelly. Halliburton three with 2:39 to go. He cuts it to 11.
3:49
Brunson misses a three. Nesmith with another three with 2:04 left. Cuts it to eight. 119-111. Remember, the spread is what, four, four and a half? Somewhere in that pocket. Four and a half was the close.
4:00
KAT then misses a three. Siakam is fouled. He makes one of two free throws. You think that missed free throw at that point is gonna come back to haunt the Pacers, at least on the spread. Forget about winning the game.
4:10
I mean, it's still 119-112 with 1:20 left. Brunson to the rack. Scores. 121-112. The Knicks are up nine with 59 seconds left. They're up nine with under a minute. This is getting a little close.
4:25
You never win a game when you're down nine with under a minute left. Nesmith from 27, bang. Three in a row from Aaron Nesmith. 121-115 with 51 seconds left. But then KAT with a layup, and it's an eight-point lead.
4:40
123-115 with 42 seconds left. Nesmith from 31, bang, bang. The rare double bang. 123-118 with 34 seconds left. Then with 30 seconds left, Siakam steals the ball.
4:54
It took a challenge and an overturn on review to give the ball to the Pacers. It was initially called a foul on Siakam. And by the way, a delay that seemed like it took 10 minutes. Yeah, way too long.
5:04
I was like, "Come on, this game's amazing. Stop and g- get back to the game." So they give the ball to the Pacers. Nesmith from 28, bang. Five in a row. 123-121.
5:13
I'm go- [laughs] I am going with the Pacers plus the points, the Pacers series bet. I am going ballistic. 23 seconds left in the game. The Pacers have to foul. They foul KAT.
5:24
KAT's like, "Oh my God, I can't believe you come and fouled me." He has only, he o- only makes one of two free throws. 124-121, and improbably, the Pacers get the ball back in a one possession game with 14 seconds left.
5:37
The Knicks appropriately foul with 12 seconds left. Nesmith hits both, even though Reggie Miller is wondering out loud if he should purposely miss the second. Reggie, stop it. Stop it already.
5:47
Please, keep your thoughts to yourself. He makes them both. 124-123. Siakam, um, has to foul Anunoby with seven seconds left, but that's after Brunson basically threw the ball away, and miraculously it got to OG.
6:04
Yeah, that was incredible. I was like, "Oh my God, what was that?" Anunoby at the line, he misses the first. Remember, they're only up one with seven seconds left. He makes the second. 125-123 with seven seconds left.
6:18
There are no timeouts here, and then the weirdest thing happens. Did you catch this? The organist starts playing as if it's a, like, random possession in the second quarter- [laughs]...
6:28
as Halliburton brings the ball up the court. It was the weirdest thing for, like, a second and a half. I- I'm like, "What, what are, what are we watching?" Yeah, yeah.
6:34
The, the NBA i- uh, in-arena sound sometimes hear, you could be like, "What, what's going on?" What are, what are you doing? So Halliburton dribbles the ball up the court.
6:44
He gets inside, sort of like around the free throw line, and then does a complete 180 and directs directly back to the other goal. Like, he does a complete I'm gonna face the other way. He then thinks, right?
6:59
He thinks at this point that he's got his feet behind the arc. He shoots it for the win. Ball hits the back of the rim, back of the iron, bounces way up in the air- Roughly-... and miraculously through.
7:13
Roughly 37 feet up in the air, Gil. And that thing was, like, out of the frame. Pacers win, right? Choke sign. He does the, he does the Reggie Miller choke sign, except his toe was on the line. We're going overtime.
7:26
You could go to a basketball court right, b- by the way, right now, and a th- take 1,000 shots and try to duplicate what happened on that three-pointer, with the ball bouncing as high up in the air as it did.
7:35
Fairly wild, yeah. You cannot duplicate it. Unbelievable.
7:38
By the way, when that went in and I thought they won the game, I m- um, I was so out of my head that I got this massive head rush that took me for, like s- took me, like, six seconds to recover from.
7:47
[laughs] You what, you got dizzy? [laughs] I was like, "This is unbelievable." Yeah. I, I was, I was a little surprised how convinced Halliburton was that it was a three.
7:58
Like, obviously he did the whole motion to try to get behind the line. Yes, yes. But I, I thought it was pretty obvious that it wasn't. Everybody- Yeah... every- everybody who was paying attention did.
8:05
Todd was like, "That is not alive." He was on the... And I was so wrapped up and I couldn't believe what was happening. 125-125.
8:12
A sif- a 17 to 6 run for the Pacers the last two minutes and 38 seconds of the quarter to force overtime.
8:20
We go to overtime, Knicks go up four early, but then after a Nembhard three, they basically end up trading baskets all overtime, both teams, until the Knicks are down one, 136-135 with 27 seconds left in overtime.
8:30
Nembhard tips a pass off of Brunson's fingertip. Review. India- Indiana ball with 20 seconds left. Pacers inbounds, way too easy, no defense, top and jam.
8:40
Got fouled, and like the refs did all night, they decided not to call anything on the Knicks. 138-135 Pacers with 15 seconds left. Brunson misses a three. Knicks rebound. Katt misses a three.
8:52
Bodies flying, everyone on the ground, no whistle anywhere.
8:55
Ball off Bridges with 0.2 left, and then with 0.2 left, Halliburton, ever cognizant of what's going on, just gives it to Katt because he knows the rules- [laughs]... that you need 0.3- That's awesome.
9:05
That was awesome [laughs]... for the opponent to shoot it. Pacers win. Unbelievable. Halliburton, 31 points, 11 assists. Nesmith, career-high 30, 8 of 9 from three, including five in a row in that final sequence.
9:18
He had 20 in the fourth quarter. Brunson, 43 in defeat. Katt, 35 and 12 in defeat. The Knicks had 40 free throw attempts. The Pacers, 28. Don't get me started on that.
9:28
Fourth quarter and overtime, the Pacers scored 51 points in fourth quarter and overtime. History, if you think I'm being ridiculous about this, this is from Tim Reynolds.
9:38
"Pacers tonight," we have it w- any way you slice it, this was history. "Pacers tonight, 23 points in the final 3:14 of regulation.
9:45
That's the most in the final 3:14 of regulation of a playoff game in the play-by-play era since 1997." But wait, there's more. Uh, this one is from... Let's go to the next one, guys. This one... Do we have the next one?
9:57
Mm-hmm. Uh, this is, um... I'll read it off my phone here 'cause we're not getting it on the screen. This is from... [singing] Uh, just unbelievable things that have never happened before in the history of the NBA.
10:09
Knicks led by 14 with 2:45 to play in the fourth quarter, and now in overtime, um, teams that had led playoff games by 14 plus in the final 2:45 of the fourth quarter were 994 and O in play.
10:24
In, uh, were 994 and O in the play-by-play era, now it's 994 and one.
10:29
And then the last one here is, teams that trailed by nine plus in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime of a playoff game were 0 and 1,414 since 1998 entering Wednesday. Now they are one and 1,414.
10:45
That according to the Elias Sports Bureau, uh, courtesy of ESPN Research. Unbelievable. Uh, Pacers get the money on the spread. They obviously win it outright, one to nothing series. And I gotta tell you, man,
10:59
I, I quickly toggled into both of these series could be quick. Ooh, on the Pacers side. Yes. What's funny about that was there was a...
11:09
I, I was a part of a text exchange probably beginning of that fourth quarter that was like, "This might be quick on the New York side if they're gonna keep blowing the whistle- Oh... for Brunson like they are."
11:17
Well, uh, well, there w- what we were talking about at that point was this will go seven because the refs are going to be so i- so, uh, their whistle is gonna be such in favor of the home teams- Yeah...
11:28
that it's gonna go the full seven. I, I really thought that was gonna be the story of this game- [exhales]... was how friendly of a whistle the Knicks got the entire night.
11:36
But, uh, well, Nesmith's looking like Klay Thompson down the stretch is the story of the game. That was incredible. What a time to be alive. What a game. Imagine not liking sports. More on this in Are We Sure?
11:49
Next on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music]VSiN, the sports betting network If you wanna bet smarter, you gotta start with smarter insights.
12:04
Right now you can check out Greg Peterson's Major League Baseball picks, Zach Cohen's NBA best bets, and our Coca-Cola 600 preview.
12:10
And later today, you can check out Jonathan Davis' NHL best bets, Daniel Karpuk's NBA props, and Adam Burke's MLB picks. Right now you can sign up for our annual subscription.
12:19
Get 14 months for only $199 with promo code PRO. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. It's Gil Alexander. We get tweets at Beating The Book, best listeners in the game.
12:29
Benjamin Schott, "Yo, Gil and Kelly, my grandma passed away last week, and the funeral was this weekend. She was the biggest Pacers fan. She lived an amazing 95 years," almost 95 years.
12:42
"She knew more about the NBA than most huge fans, the players, their stats, et cetera. At the funeral this weekend, the family was commenting, 'It must suck to be the Knicks.
12:50
They have no chance with her directions from above.'
12:53
I'm embarrassed to say I went to bed with them down 14 in the [laughs] fourth quarter, woke up in shock, but a huge smile, thinking she helped the final outcome for the Indiana Pacers." Wow, that's a cool story.
13:03
That is a fantastic tweet. Um, got a little, got a little Hail Miriam feeling in me from- Mm-hmm, mm-hmm... that one right there. Uh, Benjamin, our condolences to you.
13:14
And yes, your grandma could not have been more happy last night. Maybe she was pulling the strings on that one. Uh, this is from, uh, let's see. Uh, [laughs] these are great. Uh, Zach Tuchman.
13:26
Tuchman, I'm gonna say it that way. Maybe it's Zach Tuckman.
13:29
Says, "I don't wanna b- be the guy that brings this up," it's Kelly's favorite topic, "but I was browsing FanDuel and noticed Comeback Player of the Year odds in the NFL." [laughs] Oh, no. Oh, geez. Oh, no. Ah, geez.
13:39
"Why is J.J. McCarthy plus 850? Is he even eligible? Brian Robinson wasn't when he was shot before his [laughs] rookie year. Not sure if this is the same." [sighs] Oh, let's not start this. Should, uh- No.
13:50
No, you should not. You can't, you cannot bet that one. You can't bet that. No, no. Uh, Shrek McFeas says, "Happy bracket day for, uh, Roland Garros."
13:57
Yes, we will do the, uh, French Open podcast with Drew and, uh, Zach, who will be joining us here on the show momentarily. But bo- both, bo- both those guys a little later today.
14:05
Uh, Kevin Ryan, "Gil, am I the only one that turned the Knicks game off once the, once the n- n- uh, Knicks," rather. I gotta edit these. "Knicks went up 17 in the fourth quarter. Did I miss anything?" Yeah, you did.
14:16
Again, I'll say it again. When, when they were trading baskets in overtime, I texted everyone. I was like, "This is one of the greatest games I've ever seen." And I thought about Brett Musburger.
14:24
Brett Musburger, um, the co-founder, obviously, of VSiN and the godfather himself, he did a triple overtime game when he was doing NBA play- Mm-hmm... play-by-play.
14:34
I wanna say it was 1976, he did a triple overtime game in the Boston Garden between the Suns and the S- uh, the Celtics, that the Celtics ended up winning, I believe, in triple. Or did the Suns win? I can't remember.
14:44
But anyway, Gar Heard hit a, like a bomb shot to force a- another overtime. Triple overtime, and I think Brett might say that that's the greatest game he ever called. But this, I mean, that's 1970s NBA basketball.
14:57
That was a much slower game. This was just unbelievable. 1976, game five. There you go. Triple overtime. Who won it? Uh [laughs] Eric, Eric- Not in front of me at the moment. [laughs] Eric Berg.
15:09
Kelly, again, the research goes to re-sir. [laughs] He doesn't get to the end of the research. Uh, Eric Berg, "Loving the guessing line summary NBA version from, uh, Gil to start the morning off."
15:18
How could you not with that game? My God, just look at the play-by-play. It's incredible. Uh, Rick Ollier, "So Team of Destiny, eh? I did say the other day there's just something about the Pacers."
15:29
Something about the Pacers. No, I mean, this is like the third time in the playoffs they've done something like this. It's, but you know what? It's incredible. This was the most incredible of them.
15:35
It was the most incredible of all of them, yes. Uh, T. Lynch, "The old foul up three with way too much time left. When will they learn?" Todd was t- texting the same thing last night. 128-126, Boston in triple overtime.
15:46
There you go. Torch D, the one who put the satin on your panties, "Last night on the NBA flop-offs, Brunson literally grabbed a defender's arm and hit himself in the face with it to get a call. Your move, SGA."
15:57
That was a, an awesome replay. That's a great tweet, and Brunson was ridiculous with that last night. O- um, I think it was Will who texted last night, and he goes, "If you're guarding Jalen Brunson, don't have arms.
16:09
It might not be a good thing." [laughs] That's a great comment. It's so bad. Uh, and Chuckism1, "If a player can't propel or throw a ball carrier over the line, how are they allowing the tush push?
16:20
It's essentially the same thing without the hang time." Yes, tush push, as we, as we talked about at the end of yesterday's show, passed. Um, what we didn't know yesterday that it was 22 to 10. 22 a- uh, to 10.
16:31
They needed 24 to ban the tush push, but they only got to 22. 10 teams, nine backed up the Eagles. Nine other teams, along with the Eagles, uh, voted against the ban. One not being the Bills. One not being the Bills.
16:43
Most notably, yeah. So were, who, who like have benefited from it second most to the Eagles. I was kind of thinking about that though yesterday, where I'm like, you know what? Maybe you, like you have Josh Allen.
16:52
You don't real- like it's, it's nice to have like James Cook give him a little push. Yeah.
16:56
He doesn't really need it though, so maybe you are like, uh, hurting advantages for the rest of the league thinking to take that away. [laughs] This is Shades of Mako.
17:05
Shades of Mako says, "Yo, I was not ready for Gil's Kat voice," laughing emoji. What? That wasn't what he said? That's what I thought. [laughs] That's what he said.
17:13
String Fellow Hawk, "Have the Pacers series at two to one. I used to be a Knicks fan, but when the owners started acting like a tuchus," uh, blank. I can't say those two words together.
17:21
You could say them separately, but you can't say them together. "A few years ago, I bailed. I wish them nothing but the worst, and I hope Dolan never lifts a trophy."
17:27
Well, they are not on their way, uh, in this particular series. Um- The, uh, so- Game, game two. I'm sorry, Kelly, go ahead. Yeah, sorry, just to add on a couple other things.
17:36
Four, fifth playoff game in NBA history that had four 30-point scorers. Does that surprise you? Surprises me a little bit. Fifth that had four? Oh, I would've expected there'd be more than that.
17:45
Yeah, I would've, I would've expected more. Yeah. Um- But you got Brunson, Kat, Haliburton, Nesmith, and I like, yeah, we could go through so many of the details. We could do two hours on this game.
17:53
New York was once screwed up. Like honestly though, Aaron S- Aaron Nesmith turned into nuclear Steph Curry at the end of the game. Right. And like that, that's what got you.
18:02
How many times have I said baloncesto is a very easy sport sometimes. If the ball goes in the hole, things are gonna work out for you usually. Yeah. And if it doesn't, the opposite.
18:09
I think, I think I'm almost, like I'm not defending the Knicks, but like, man, on any like couple of the NBA pods, shows I started watching quick last night, this morning They were killing Knicks defense for going under screens on Nesmith and some.
18:22
Like, okay, well, like, you're right. You are right. But you didn't expect Nesmith to go out there- No... and hit every single one of them time and time again.
18:30
Every one of them was like Atlanta Hawks on the bench versus Larry Bird in New Orleans in the mid-'80s where they're just, like, losing their minds. A- and, like, only half of them.
18:38
Did he, did they even look like he was stable in rhythm shots, right? It was like, "Oh, I'm fading off to this direction." Incredible. I'm- Knicks installed as a five and a half point favorite in game two.
18:49
The total has risen to 227 after that yesterday. Yeah, I'm on full, uh, full zigzag here, Gil. [laughs] You are full zig- I, [laughs] I laid the five and a half- All that said, full zigzag...
18:57
[laughs] all of that said, full zigzag. Uh, uh, where we saw that, where that game was at in the fourth. We saw the Knicks... I, I... Man, there was a lot of good things you did see out of the Knicks early in that game.
19:07
It, hitting the boards. I thought they were dominant there. We talked about it yesterday. Karl-Anthony Towns looked unstoppable at points in that game, and I think he's gonna be a problem for the Pacers going forward.
19:17
Um, so yeah, I'm full, I'm at full zigzag. But I have a, I have a feeling I will be on Pacers game three if the [laughs] Knicks win game two.
19:23
But- That's tomorrow, Friday night, at Madison Square Garden, game two Yeah, I laid the five and a half. I laid three and a half on the first half, and I'm, I'm pretty surprised.
19:31
I forget who tweeted in yesterday asking about KAT's point total, but it's up to, it's only up to 23 and a half. I love that. I played over, over that. Uh, tonight, OKC seven and a half point favorites.
19:41
This total was down from game one, but now ticking a little bit upward to 16 and a half. Anything tonight? I've got nothing tonight. I'm just sort of, I'm just- I don't, I don't know if I'm touching it tonight, no...
19:49
I, I, honestly, it would be Thunder or pass. I, I would not be looking zigzag here. The only thing I would do is over nothing, but I'm not sure I'm playing it. Yeah, yeah. Um- I'll just... I...
19:58
Look, I got, I got more than enough money wrapped up [laughs] in these- Yes, you do... Thunder futures tickets. This is [laughs]... I just need them to win. Um, ladies and gentlemen, it's time for Are We Sure? Hit it.
20:10
[upbeat music] You think you know what's going on in the sports betting world? Are you sure? I'm positive. Gil and Kelly tackle the hard-hitting questions on another exciting edition of Are We Sure? Wow.
20:26
Is that Roberto Moreno who did that for you? Oh, of course. Yeah. Of course. Robert, Robert Moreno. Look at you. With, with, with an assist from... I don't even th- I don't think I got this tweeted at me one day.
20:36
Someone tweeted into the show, though, and tweeted at you about, uh, the Joe Pesci line. Yes. Oh, Are We Sure? Yeah. Right, right, right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. All right. Well, let's start this. Are we sure? What do we got?
20:46
Are we sure- Yeah... SGA should be minus 190 to win finals MVP?
20:52
Uh, yes, if y- I mean, this is, this is completely correlated with your conviction as to who's gonna win the title because the answer to the question, has anybody from a losing team ever won finals MVP, the answer is yes, one time.
21:06
1969, when the logo Jerry West won the finals MVP for the Los Angeles Lakers. So basically, you have to correlate it with who you think's winning the championship.
21:17
So yeah, if you think OKC's winning it, minus 190 might be considered cheap. Now, if you don't think that, then clearly it's the opposite answer. But that's the issue with that question, right?
21:26
You, it's from the winning team. I'm glad you brought that all up. F- okay, first of all, do you think we'll ever see one won again by a member of the losing team? I...
21:35
Listen, if it ever happened, I could see Tyrese Haliburton being that guy. Like, he could just go ballistic. But, I mean, it's, it, it's going to- Oh, I would, I would say it's a Jokic.
21:45
Well, yeah, but I'm just saying he's not, he's obviously not around. But I'm just saying for the, for this, for this part of it. I'm just saying forever. In the, uh, for, for the next 20 years, 30 years, do we see one?
21:54
No, I think, I think it's possible, but I think it's unlikely. Yeah. Yeah. I think it's tough. I- Yeah... I'm glad you brought up the pricing, though, because that's kind of what I w- wanted to get to with this.
22:01
If you like the Thunder, a 15 cent difference, at least that's what it is at DraftKings, minus 205 for them to win the finals, SGA minus 190, that's a good bet.
22:10
Like, there's nobody else on the Thunder that's winning that. You don't think? I don't think so. Hmm. I don't think so. Hmm. Let's do one more before the break here.
22:17
Are we sure the Timberwolves should be favorites over both the Knicks and the Pacers in the finals because that's what they are on lookahead lines over at DraftKings? No. No, I'm not sure.
22:28
Pa- uh, I, again, there's something about the Pacers. No, I'm not sure. I know you hardos think yes, but I, I, I'm not sure. No, no, I, I was a little surprised by it. Yeah. That's why I brought it up. Yep.
22:37
More Are We Sure on the other side. Maybe we'll even segue into a tennis Are We Sure with Zach's around the corner, which he is. Zach Cohen on the NBA and tennis next.
22:46
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Take your betting to a whole 'nother level with First Bet.
22:58
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23:06
And use promo code VSiN200 to score a 20% rebate on all your wagers for the first 60 days, up to $200. Don't miss out. Bet smarter today at firstbet.com. It's Gil Alexander. We get tweets, beating the book.
23:19
Dan Goodwin, Colt's owner, Jim Irsay, uh, passed yesterday. Last tweet, "Go Pacers." Is that right, that was his last tweet, was "Go Pacers"? Um- Do not know... rest in peace, Jim Irsay. Uh, as a Washington fan,
23:34
um, I will always thank Jim Irsay for being the first owner to publicly speak out against Daniel Snyder. That would be my personal, uh, DMV-oriented, uh, angle on that.
23:44
But, uh, again, condolences to the Irsay family on that. JB, "Ugh, not another day of tush push discussion." Oh, no, no, we're not, we're not discussing it. It was just a tweet. We're just reacting to a tweet.
23:55
We went through it yesterday quite fine. Sparty, @SpartyKY. Th- listen to this, Kelly. SpartyKY, "Corey Pavin is one under through eight. Didn't even know he was still golfing."
24:07
Now, I read this tweet and I thought well, clearly Sparty is being sarcastic about something, right? So I go to the Ca- uh, I go to the, uh, Charles Schwab leaderboard.
24:15
And sure enough, Corey Pavin, it's the Corey Pavin- Yeah... is, what, what is he, two strokes back? What is he right now early going here? T10 Uh, two strokes back, yeah Two strokes back, Corey Pavin. And I'm with you.
24:31
Uh, uh, I'm, I'm with you, SpartyKY, which is I had no idea this man was going. He's 65 years old. Corey Pavin, Kelly, won the US Open in 1995. Yeah. Uh- Has he been golfing?
24:44
So that's what, that's what I'm just checking through right now. He's played a few events on the Champions Tour this year and last year. Man, it, it's not- That is crazy...
24:54
I mean, he's pla- he's played some Champions Tour events. I guess that's where he's been, but it is nothing, nothing very significant finish-wise even over there. [laughs] Where is, uh, where is D.A.
25:03
Weibring and Keith Clearwater on that, [laughs] on that leaderboard? But, but you know- Are they up there as well?... but like we say often, uh, if you're betting golf, it's real early, folks. Wow.
25:11
[laughs] That was, that's the surprising tweet of the morning. Uh, Moneyline Marv, "Gil, you are way too deep in NBA meme culture to not only know the cat voice, but to do it perfectly. Salute, sir." Thank you.
25:20
Thank you very much. [laughs] It's very good. Um, okay, let's do one more are we sure, and then we'll get to Zach here. What do you got? Are we sure? I gotta erase the one I was gonna ask after what you just said.
25:31
Uh, are we sure? Oh, what'd I do? The Dodgers should be minus 145 to reach the NLCS. Uh, no, because again, you don't know what's gonna happen.
25:43
If they end up in a best of five, you have no idea that they'll get there, so no, they shouldn't be minus 145. Pretty shocked by that pricing as well. Right. Minus 145 to get there? No. No. That's, uh, pretty stunning.
25:52
All right. I got one more for you and Zach.
25:54
Okay, let's bring in Zach Cohen, everybody, a part of the whole glue that holds this whole operation together here at VSiN, VSiN senior editor, uh, to join us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Zach?
26:05
I'm doing well. How are you guys? Doing very well. Okay, Kelly, by the way, you can follow Zach on Twitter at Betting on X. Kelly has an are we sure for both of us here.
26:11
Zach, a noted former Knicks fan, abandoned the Knicks. Yep. [laughs] Uh- Yeah. [laughs] Are we sure it will be either Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz winning the French Open? Yes. Yeah.
26:25
I, I'm, I'm pretty sure it's gonna be one of the two of them. I'm pretty sure it's gonna be Carlos now, having seen the draws, but I, I haven't looked too much into either of them yet.
26:33
I have not seen the draws, so I, but I would've said, be- pre-draw, I would've said yes. Well, they'd be on opposite sides regardless, right? Yeah, yeah. Okay. And Drew would say, well, yes- Yeah...
26:40
they'd be on opposite sides regardless, but we'll see what, you know, who, who's in their particular quarters, um, and on their particular halves. But yes, I, and I think Drew feels the same way.
26:48
Anyway, with three of us doing a French Open podcast, uh, few hours from now, looking forward to that. Um, Zach? Yep. What about that game last night?
26:57
A- am I being ridiculous in saying it's one of the greatest games I've ever seen? Yes. I mean, it, it's, I've, I've never seen anything like it, honestly.
27:04
Like, uh, just what B Smith did at the end of that game, you know, the way that they weren't guarding him, I mean, there were some that, you know, there was nothing they could do about.
27:11
I mean, B Smith hit like a 33-footer from the center of the court at one point, and I, I, I just have not seen a collapse quite like that.
27:18
The fact that the Pacers now have three of these wins in this, just this one playoff run is insane, and Haliburton continues to make clutch shot after clutch shot.
27:26
I said before this series that Brunson was by [laughs] far the most clutch player on the floor, and that the Haliburton stuff would run out at some point. I, I guess I was wrong.
27:34
Haliburton does not miss when the game [laughs] is on the line.
27:37
When you, when you leave a game like that, and the w- the manner in which the Knicks collapsed, I guess the sports talk radio question that folks would ask beyond the betting is, can the Knicks recover from something like this?
27:48
'Cause I think most people would say, "Oh, sure, it's one game." I, I'm not so sure. Like, to me, sure, could they win a game or two? Yeah, but I, I think this is kind of like, "Oh, that, that's it.
27:58
Pacers are winning this." Yeah, well, it's funny because obviously the zigzag theory is really enticing for game two, like they taking the Knicks and laying the five and a half.
28:08
At the same time, I thought the Pacers' pace did bother the Knicks. I thought they looked gassed in that overtime. Yep. Jalen Brunson especially, who was, you know, in foul trouble, didn't even play the entire game.
28:17
I thought he looked exhausted by the time the final five minutes came around. So I, I, I'm not really sure.
28:22
I, I think that there's a chance Indiana does win game two, especially when you combine, you know, the, the X's and O's edge that, you know, Rick Carlisle has over Tom Thibodeau.
28:30
That's one of, you know, the big things that I did bake into this series is I kind of expected the Pacers to get the better of the Knicks every other game after having, you know, a, a previous game to watch.
28:40
Now it's a really interesting situation where it's zigzag versus a lot of things that I liked that I saw out of the Pacers.
28:45
So is there a play for you in game two with the Knicks favored by five and a half and the total upped to 227? I'm gonna lean Pacers five and a half. I'm not positive I'm gonna take it.
28:55
I'll probably write that up for vsin.com in a few hours, but, uh, it's gonna be really hard for me not to take five and a half. I was, you know, tempted by the four and a half.
29:02
I wanted five in game one, ended up, you know, staying away and taking the under, which was a great play. [laughs] I, I do think Indiana i- is probably gonna cover a five and a half point spread.
29:11
By the way, I, uh, buried the headline, the NBA Killer Sports VSiN Playoff Challenge, Zach and Fezzik still co-leaders, clinging- Oh, but at- Do you think you had the biggest win?
29:23
At 19 and 13, I am the sneaky freaky brother sneaking in from the rear. I am, I am, in the standings I'm listed as third, but really I'm fifth, right?
29:32
Because I think you have to, I don't know why they list it the way they do.
29:35
I'm a, I'm a game and a half behind both Zach and Fezzik, but I think the folks who have 13 in the loss column as opposed to 14 like you and I do, Kelly, I think they're actually, I think Kazarian is actually still in third at 17 and 13.
29:50
Uh, and then Alex Christiansen at 16, 13, and 1 is really in fourth. I'm probably in fifth. You're probably in sixth. Kyle Akins in seventh. There is, there is the updated standings.
29:59
Thank you, guys, uh, for that right there. But look at this- What are we, what are we, we're getting a half point for a push? Hal- uh, no. Yes, half point for a push. Correct.
30:05
We're just missing, we're missing a push on your record. Yes, we are missing a push on mine. I am 17, 14, and 1. So I think, you know, really- I was gonna ask that...
30:14
yeah, really Doug is in, uh, Doug is in fir- is in third place I think. Yeah. Uh, and I'd be in fifth. But Zach and Fezzik clinging. What do you think, Zach?
30:21
You gonna be able to take this home, or are you, uh, are we getting tight? What's happening here? I'm getting ti- I'm O and two in, in this round, so I'm definitely getting tight.
30:29
I, I, we both had the under last night, so it didn't matter at all for either of us, but I was watching your play. I knew you had the Pacers plus four because, uh, you're, you're gonna come back here. I feel it. Mm.
30:39
I feel it too. I feel it. See what happens.
30:41
Once again, the crew-- By the way, that was the first time where the crew behind the glass, all of a sudden they got to the edge of their seats when I got an above the line in the third.
30:47
They're like, "Hey, wait a minute." 'Cause, uh, again, my-- If I win this, no matter what, if I get the money, it's all going to the, uh, to the crew here on The Numbers Game for all the work that they do.
30:57
What, what's the payout structure? It's 3,000 for first. I'm not sure what's second and third is. Yeah, me either, 'cause it's 5,000 total, right? It, it drops, it drops down significantly after- Okay...
31:04
after first, I think. I think it's 3,000 for first, 500 for second. Oh, okay. That's all it is. Oh. Yeah, I'm just making up numbers 3,000 for first, 500 for second. I'll shut up.
31:11
[laughs] Wait, three's not in the-- Why do we have the bar under three then? It's gotta be, there's gotta be some money for third, right? I thought. Anyway. I don't, I don't know.
31:17
I don't think that there-- [laughs] I think there's just a bar. I don't know. Oh, okay. Just a bar. [laughs] Just a bar.
31:21
All right, what about t- You, if you g- [laughs] Yeah, if you, if you finish in third, you get that bar. [laughs] I thought this, I thought this bar had some magical powers. You get a high five from Zach, all right?
31:29
[laughs] All right, what about, what about tonight's game? OKC favored by seven and a half, looking to, uh, go up two to nothing in that best of seven. Yeah, I like the Timberwolves again. I, I liked them in game one.
31:39
I thought that they really, you know, just they were, all their wounds were self-inflicted in my opinion.
31:43
I know Oklahoma City's defense in the second half was unbelievable, but a lot of that is just Minnesota being careless with the ball.
31:49
They knew going in that they couldn't do that, and they still did it, but that's kind of on par with what we saw in that Warriors series where they just showed up flat in game one.
31:57
I, I think in game two we're gonna see, you know, just better ball security. I, I think they're gonna shoot the three a little bit better.
32:03
Uh, they were really, really bad from three, especially, you know, Mike Conley, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Naz Reid, Dante DiVincenzo combined six for 33 in game one.
32:12
Those guys all shot 37% or better from the in, from three in the regular season. I think they're all going to be a lot better than we think in game two.
32:19
Also, uh, you know, this account that I follow on, uh, on X, NBA Game Report, had the expected score at a 111.2 OKC, Minnesota 106.2. That's a lot closer than what the final margin actually was.
32:31
That's, you know, expected points per possession versus actual points per possession.
32:35
And, and one of the things that just really stuck out to me was that Minnesota was minus 10.8 on wi- wide open threes, you know, uncontested threes- Yeah... that there was nobody around.
32:44
I know that the Thunder are really good at kind of tricking you into thinking you're open, but these were ones that actually were open, and I think that they're gonna bury them in game two.
32:52
I think Ant's gonna be a little bit more aggressive going to the rim 'cause, I mean, if SGA is getting the type of whistle that he got in game one, Ant's got to attack the basket and put the onus on the refs.
33:01
Minnesota 15 of 51 from behind the arc [laughs] in game one. Guess when the NBA final starts, guys. Guess when d- game one of the NBA finals- I already know... June 5th. I should know. June 5th.
33:13
These series, if these series are short, oh my God. It's like one of those, you know, week-long or eight-day breaks. [laughs] So, uh, I don't know. We'll see if that, uh, manifests. Zach, appreciate it.
33:24
We'll talk to you in a couple hours, uh, or a few hours for the French Open pod. Th- thanks. Looking forward to it. My man Zach Cohen, everybody. Betting on X.
33:32
Roland-Garros Beating the Book podcast coming up later today. Let's talk some, uh, auto racing. Indy 500 and more with Phil Bobbitt, Speedway Steve calls himself. That's next.
33:44
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Sharpplays.com, check 'em out.
33:57
Unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, and alerts directly from the pros. We invite you to take a look at sharpplays.com.
34:08
Steve Fezzik, uh, just, uh, texted me. He said, uh, "Corey Pavin is the same age as Jim Irsay." Jim Ir- Jim Irsay, uh- Oh... rest in peace, passing away. Corey Pavin on the golf course again this morning.
34:20
That's unbelievable to me that he's playing. Had no idea we still, he's still out there, uh, playing on the tour.
34:27
Uh, by the way, Primetime, Cowboys_Cubs1 on Twitter, "Yo, I was following Corey Pavin at the Greater Milwaukee Open at Brown Deer Park just after the turn of the century when he shot a 26 on his front nine.
34:38
Sucks getting old, brother." Uh, well, not for Corey Pavin this morning it doesn't.
34:43
St- uh, Steven at Brosek1870, "Guess who started watching the series finale of FBI Most Wanted because the Pacers and the Stars were down? Still got to see the end of the Pacers game."
34:53
[laughs] That would be you, I guess.
34:54
Uh, and by the way, Stan Van Gundy, Ryan Morsteen points out to us that, that Stan Van Gundy called the Tyrese Haliburton giving the ball to Cat with 0.2 seconds left, or, or even if they got the ball, there was nothing the Knicks could do about it with 0.2 seconds left, with the rule being only at 0.3 can you actually, uh, take the full shot.
35:12
I just wanna know if Halley said something to him. Like, it looked way, like C- Cat looked way too, like, like he expected to get the ball. Like he expected it.
35:21
If Tyrese said something to him like, "Hey, take a shot, Cat." Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Like, 'cause it doesn't matter. Knicks up by- It doesn't matter...
35:26
Bruce Dobing, "Gil, you're missing on the second course of, uh, bad beat Wednesday.
35:30
While Knicks, uh, aspirated in, in New York City, the Oilers," oh, yes, "blew a three to one lead, letting Dallas score the f- final five goals. What a time to be alive." I said this. I texted, uh, Kelly- [laughs]...
35:41
about an hour after the game. I'm like, "While we were watching the NBA, apparently the Stars scored five goals in the third period against the Oilers."
35:47
Dude, I told you a little bit of this, but, like, I watched more of that hockey game last night than I think I have of any NHL playoff game so far. But, uh, I kinda got distracted late in the game by the NBA and- Yeah...
36:00
forgot to check back in, and sure enough, I, uh, I was alerted by a Gil Alexander text message. [laughs] Uh, Stars go up, uh, one to nothing in the best of seven Western Conference Final.
36:10
Uh, so both the Panthers and the Stars up one game in those respective conference finals in the NHL. Jesse Welch, by the way, says, "That 1970s triple overtime game ended 128-126?
36:20
Imagine the score if the Knicks and Pacers went to triple overtime." Yeah. Oh, dude. Yep. You are so right. Let's talk some auto racing. Ladies and gentlemen, uh, we love it when he's on the show.
36:28
Phil Bobbitt joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Uh, you can follow him on Twitter at, what is it, Speedway Steve, and then there's a number. Speedway Steve... No, it's just Speedway Steve. Two. Two.
36:38
That's it. Speedway Steve two. See, that's, they forgot the two, right? Did they forget the two? There is- No, they got the two. I'm blocked by the, uh, microphone stand. Steve, Speedway Steve two. How you doing, Phil?
36:48
Good morning, fellas. Man, I'm, I'm excited. It's like the Super Bowl weekend of, of auto racing. It's gonna be racing from morning to night on Sunday. So grab a beer. Let's strap in and, and cash some tickets.
36:59
You look great, by the way. Look at this Carolina blue bow tie you got going on there. I know. Uh, what, what do you, what do you got a job interview after this, Phil? What, what, what are you all dressed up for?
37:06
Just for us? Yeah, just, just for you, Kelly. [laughs] You know, you lost all that weight. I, I felt like I had to spruce myself up a little bit.
37:13
Let me ask you a couple questions before we get to your picks, 'cause I know there's multiple, and it's not just the Indy 500. We have three races to talk about here with your picks.
37:19
But before we get to that, uh, our buddy Wyatt Tomchek here, who's a big, big racing fan, he cue- he, you know, cued us in on a couple things. One, um, so Kyle Larson's going for the double here, right?
37:30
This is, uh, this is something he was not able to attempt last year? Yeah, he, uh, the, the, um, Indy 500 last year had a rain delayed start. Um, so he was unable to make the start of the Coke 600 later that night.
37:46
And then that, that same rain cell made its way to Charlotte, and the ra- uh, the rain caused the race to be called early. So, uh, it was kind of a, a, a hyped up thing with very poor execution.
37:58
So this year the weather looks a little bit better, um, and hopefully he can get all the laps in. It's, it should be great. Okay. Uh, that's a portent, a teasing of, of bets to come here maybe.
38:07
Uh, and then the other thing is, before we get into your picks, is there's this massive controversy for those who follow this sport, uh, with some top executives at Penske Racing being fired, which is, it's not the first scandal, right?
38:21
Explain to us what's going on, and is this now sort of washed away? Oh, it, it hasn't washed away. This is just a terrible time for Team Penske to be going through the wringer here. Um, and it's one of the big favorites.
38:33
Josef Newgarden is one of the, the very best oval racers. Uh, during qualifying, i- they found an illegal part, um, on the rear of the car.
38:41
So, uh, two of the Team Penske cars were, were scrapped in qualifying, so they're, they're gonna be starting in the very last row, 32nd, 33rd.
38:50
Um, and, and some of the top executives, Tim Cindric, big name in, in motor racing, uh, he lost his job over it. Not sure what's gonna happen.
38:58
I'm sure we're gonna find out some, some things later down the line, but just a terrible week for, for there to be a hullabaloo at Team Penske.
39:05
Yeah, some people claiming that these, uh, uh, you know, these, uh, alterations, I'm not sure if that's the right word, to the car is something that enhances speed and, and gives them a competitive advantage.
39:16
Others saying it really doesn't, that it's more of a, uh, aesthetic thing. Um, does this sort of call into question last year's win from Newgarden, by the way? Um, not for us, 'cause we cashed that ticket.
39:27
[laughs] Um, so they can't have the money back. Um- That's not really what I mean, Phil- So I'm happy with it... but I hear you. Yes. Oh. Yeah. Yeah, so I- That's the only way you can cash. [laughs]... I'm not sure.
39:35
I'm, I'm not a big engineer guy, so I, I don't... I, I'm sort of in the camp, I don't, I don't know how it affected the car. Um, and we're, we're gonna run it back again if, if we could get to the bets.
39:45
Um- Let's do it... I, I'd love to talk. Yeah, so Newgarden, I, I think this presents an opportunity. Uh, he's starting in the back. The number got super long.
39:53
He, he was about six to one, five and a half to one a couple weeks ago before all this happened. There's a, a boost over at Caesars, 12 to one.
40:01
So I think even if Newgarden was starting in the parking lot, he could make some noise. He can overtake here relatively easy. Um, so I'm, I'm looking for Newgarden to make his way to the front.
40:10
We're gonna hedge it with a little top five at plus 165 as well. But my, my real horse for this weekend is Pato O'Ward in the McLaren. Uh, he's finished second twice in this race over the last few years.
40:22
He's won on ovals before. He won, uh, Texas. He won the Milwaukee Mile last year, so he can get it done. He was leading at the 499 and a half mile mark last year, and it got taken away. So he's starting third.
40:34
He's gonna mix it up early. I like Pato O'Ward to get it done. All right, so Josef Newgarden 12 to one to win it. Also a hedge on the, uh, T five, get him top five, plus 165, available at BetRivers and Hard Rock.
40:45
And then Pato O'Ward six to one, uh, to win it, and then, uh, T five also on him at plus 125. Not mentioned by Phil, it should be noted, and it's going on his permanent record, no Robert Schwartzman talk.
40:57
[laughs] Uh- Look at that price shopping- No, I-... though, that Phil's doing, though, for you out there. BetRivers and Hard Rock, uh, not, not in the same states, so he's really giving you all the options.
41:06
There you go, Phil. Well done. Sometimes you just have to fill your gas tank to get these bets in. [laughs] See what he did? Mm-hmm. See what he did right there? Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. All right, where you wanna go next?
41:14
You wanna go to the, uh, the Monaco Grand P- Grand Prix F1? You wanna do that next? Yeah, let's do that next. Yeah. Let, let's hit, let's hit Monaco quick.
41:21
So, uh, we're gonna take Oscar Piastri here at two to one at BetRivers to win it. Uh, it's about plus 180 all over the, the rest of the market, so make sure you're shopping around.
41:30
Uh, Monaco, just to sum it up, it is incredibly hard to pass here. The streets are narrow. The cars are too big. The, the real action happens Saturday. It, for instance, last year there were only four on-track overtakes.
41:42
So, um, this year to increase the excitement level, uh, there's mandatory two pit stops, so hopefully that, that shakes up the grid a little bit. We like Oscar Piastri in, in his, uh, McLaren to get it done.
41:54
That's just the very, very best car on the grid. To go along with that, we're gonna take his teammate Lando Norris over Max Verstappen in a head-to-head.
42:01
Max finished sixth here last year, and that was at the height of his powers. Max did win last week, but that was more of an outlier rather than the norm now. We like Lando Norris over Max Verstappen.
42:12
Finally, in the other head-to-head, we're gonna take George Russell over Lewis Hamilton. Uh, we have, this is a huge disparity. I know it's a little bit juicy at minus 163, but we see it as a well over $2 play.
42:24
Uh, George is a qualifying merchant. He's averaging a 3.43 grid start. Lewis, 8.71. Qualifying is everything here, so go ahead and lay it with George Russell over Lewis Hamilton at the Monaco GP.
42:37
Wow, Oscar Piastri to win it at two to one, and then matchups, uh, fading a couple big names, Lando Norris over Max Verstappen and George Russell over Lewis Hamilton. We should go to, uh, Monaco and watch this, Kelly.
42:48
Uh, bring the show on the road next year? Bring the show on the road, play a little clay court tennis afterwards. Sounds good to me. All right, let's do that. Um, all right, back stateside, the, uh, Coca-Cola 600.
42:56
What do you got here? All right, um, my wife is gonna love this one. We're gonna go Kyle Larson to win the thing, six to one at FanDuel. Larson has been the very best on the mile and a half tracks this year.
43:09
Uh, his speed rating is just out of control. He just dominates from, from start to finish.
43:14
We're also sprinkling, uh, it's not on the graphic here, him to win stage one and stage two, plus 650, plus 600 respectively at Caesars.
43:22
Um, he's been, uh, uh, the, the very best stage winner so far this year and, and, you know, in his career as well. So go ahead and get on those.
43:30
Uh, just a couple quick matchups, Alex Bowman over Joey Logano, William Byron over Tyler Reddick, Josh Berry over Chase Briscoe. Alex Bowman is returning from injury last year.
43:41
He, he had a, a back injury, and the books haven't really caught up to his speed. He's been very, very impressive, uh, on all different track types. It's a long race. We expect those Hendrick cars to be fantastic.
43:52
So let's get on Alex Bowman for sure, minus 110 over Joey Logano at Caesars. Why does the wife like that so much, uh, Phil? Does she like Kyle Larson, or? Well, I just Googled him. Oh. She doesn't just like Kyle Larson.
44:03
She loves Kyle Larson. [laughs] He's a, he's a pretty good-looking dude. I'll give him that, all right? I'll give him that, Gil. Oh, okay. He's got a much better hairline than me as well.
44:11
Just, I just wanted to follow up- [laughs]... 'cause I didn't know what you meant by, what you, what you meant by that. Thank you so much, Phil. Appreciate it, man, and good luck with all the bets.
44:19
Thank you very much for having me, fellas. Looking forward to seeing you again. Absolutely. We do as well. What a, what a time to, uh, be a- Great race weekend... to be in Indiana right now. Yeah.
44:28
Pacers fans, Indy 500 happening. It's the weekend of Wes Reynolds. Crack. Next on Unscripted on the Numbers Game with Visa
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