Transcript 0:00 The numbers told the story, they always do. So, all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you. 0:10 This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. That right there is Kelly Billing, y'all. What up? 0:22 Let's go, baby. Big show, big show. Big show, and nice job by you to replace the absence today- Mm-hmm... of, uh, Mr. Felika and Mr. Fezzik. Uh, if you missed it, Steve Fezzik was on with us on Wednesday. We upgraded. 0:36 Uh [laughs] Don't say that, he's listening. He's like, "What?" I hope they're both listening. [laughs] Um, yeah, hope Felika's listening too. That's right. Um, but good job by you because Warren Sharp is in the hizzy. 0:47 Uh, Warren Sharp, a little schedule talk with us. He's got him- himself a little cottage industry, and a special deal, listen to this, a special exclusive deal for VSiN listeners coming up. 1:00 And when I say special deal, I mean it barely costs you anything. Yeah, this is actually really cool. Yep. This is really cool, actually. Yeah, it's really cool. 1:09 And we'll talk, uh, schedule quirks with him and how that has betting implications, that kind of thing. Also, uh, Alex "Noops" Christensen- Noops... from FTN Fantasy and, uh, Bet Us. Bet Us. Bet US. Yep. 1:19 Or it's still Bet Us, whatever. Bet US. Uh, uh, he'll join us, and, uh, he is still alive in the VSiN Killer Sports NBA contest as well. Yeah. Where last night, can I just take a brief parenthetical aside here on this? 1:33 Yeah, go ahead. Steve Fezzik went 2 and 0. Steve Fezzik finally put his foot down. He's like, "I'm winning this thing." He's in first place. 1:39 Zach's in second, I'm in third, but Stevie, Stevie made a, he sent a message last night. He sent a message. Yeah. I didn't see that coming. I saw Zach, uh, Zach texted the group. 1:48 He's like, "I think Fezzik just put us away." And I'm like, "What are you talking about?" Uh, he, he- He's like, "He bet big bets"... didn't put us away yet. He didn't put us away yet, but he- Did put Zach away. No. 1:56 That's for sure. There, uh, here's the standings right here. Uh, this is updated standings. Stevie Fezzik, 21 and 13. Uh, Zach, 19 and 14. Then young Gil, 18, 14 and 1. But our guest, Alex Christensen, right behind that. 2:08 That's right. And Alex only has 13 in the loss column. So we'll get his thoughts on, uh, Pacers-Knicks tonight and, uh, if he thinks this OKC-Minnesota series is, uh, 2:18 headed for a quick, quick exit, or a quick, uh, result I should say, in the, the case of the T-Wolves, a quick exit. We'll talk to him about that. Um, Kelly, you're still in there. You still got a shot. 2:29 You're still in there. Just gotta go perfect the rest of the way. That's the way I'm looking at it, Gil. That's all you gotta do. Just never lose again. Yeah, it's what you gotta do kind of at this point. 2:37 Never lose again. Uh, we also will, uh, have on the show today, uh, Jason Weingarten from Under a Cloud of Smoke, Matt Grissom on college baseball. We'll do all that. And French Open talk, a little French Open futures. 2:48 Uh, in case you missed, uh, Drew Dinsick, Zach Cohen, and I, we did the Beating the Book French Open preview, betting preview yesterday in a podcast form live on YouTube. 2:58 Uh, and so I have the, my plays that I, my, my outrights, if you will. I'm looking forward to it. Yeah. I gotta finish the pod. 3:05 I, I started it up while I was at the gym yesterday, and then I decided this is not good gym, uh, uh, listening. [laughs] Tennis talk? I, I, yeah, yeah. I need something- How-... more upbeat than this... how dare you? 3:14 [laughs] It's my, it's my quarter place, I have to say. I, and I love- Tell me about it... the routine of you guys get- the three of you getting together now too. Oh. 3:20 I think Zach, Zach, Drew, you kind of all attack things a little bit differently. Yeah. Love the different conversation. 'Cause Drew and I have done it for- Right... 3:28 for years and years now, but Zach i- Zach does it his own way too, so we're, we're having fun with that. 3:32 Before we get into, uh, talk of last night, um, Circa Sports, Derek Stevens, big announcement yesterday on, uh, Follow the Money. Um, there's the, there's the shot of these guys. 3:43 Uh, there's t- two adults on the left, two adults on the right, and somehow Jeff Benson didn't get his, the proper chair in the middle. Ah, poor Jeff. What are we doing with Jeff? Poor Jeff. 3:51 Can, can we do Jeff a solid and get him a chair for God's sakes? Um, but we have, so we have a couple things. 3:57 First of all, Circa Sports guarantee for the Circa Million Football Contest will remain the same, $6 million this year, while Circa Survivor, and I guess we can call this Circa Survivor Classic now, guarantee increases from $10 million to $15 million. 4:12 So the answer to the question, what's the guarantee? It's now $15 million in Circa Survivor. How many entries do, do you do in Survivor? Uh, I did three last year. I'll probably do the same. Yeah. 4:22 Uh, I did, what did I do? Five. I do five every year. Yeah. Um- I know you've been on the, y- y- you've kind of come around to going a little bit less, right? No. [laughs] Oh. Not in Survivor. Okay. 4:33 In, in Millions I only do one. Oh, in Millions, okay. Yeah. Millions I only do one 'cause it- Yeah, I always think two, two or three is fine for main Survivor. I don't need to go more than that. 4:40 And then the big sort of the, the larger announcement, I don't know if it's a larger announcement, 'cause that was really answering the question, but Derek had told me, I mentioned this, Derek had told me he had something up his sleeve. 4:51 Um, and, uh, some people said after this happened yesterday, some people were like, "Oh, Derek done lost his mind." Because here's the dealio. There is something brand new called the Circa Grandissimo. Grandissimo. 5:06 Uh, this is the ultimate high-stakes survivor contest. $100,000 to enter. $100,000 to enter, 1.5 million guaranteed, no rake. Your high-stakes survivor contest, Circa Sports Grandissimo. 5:22 Kelly is already in, full 100K. Yeah, they told me I could have five entries actually- Oh... as long as I did them under separate names and I didn't- Yeah... bring it up on air. Okay. Yeah. We'll see. 5:31 Two, two entry max, my reaction was, "Pfft, I would've done four. What are they talking about?" [laughs] I, uh- This is, this is, this is kind of unbelievable. Yeah. 5:40 Um, how many peop- how many entries do you think they, they end up with for a $100,000 entry fee for Circa Grandissimo? I don't think it matters. I'm gonna go, uh, I'll say, okay, it's $1.5 million guaranteed, right? 5:54 I think that's a tell, a little bit of a tell right there. Over, under 30 entries. Under. There you go. I think it's under. But, um, but Derek says he's got something up his sleeve. 6:07 I'm gonna- I'm reading into things a bit here. I bet you there's a f- there's a few names probably that have already committed to this behind the scenes- Mm-hmm... 6:14 that might be big names, that this is gonna be a genius marketing thing for him. Okay. All right. That's my guess. Or groups will get involved. Or groups will get involved. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. 6:23 So that's my guess, is that, uh, at the end of the day, as he does so well, this will be another great marketing thing that Circa does. Uh, yeah. Derek's pretty good at that stuff, huh? Mm-hmm. Uh, so there you go. 6:32 That's what's happening. Circa Sports with the, uh, football contest, and obviously between now and football season we'll talk about it far more, um, as the NFL season approaches. 6:42 Again, Warren Sharp coming up here momentarily to break down some schedule, and maybe you can have these in mind as we talk about it. Uh, to the NBA last night. 6:50 This is sort of, you know, it's the opposite of the, uh, the Knicks and the Pacers game one, which was just a basketball opera of the highest order. One of the greatest games I think I've ever seen. 7:01 OKC takes down Minnesota once again, easy-peasy. Uh, not a problem. 7:05 Sort of had the same trajectory as game one, which is Minnesota played w- with them, you know, pretty even for s- two quarters and some change, and then it was Katie bar the door from the Oklahoma City Thunder. 7:16 Uh, after Minnesota cut the lead to four in the third quarter, OKC busted it open, leading by as many as 24 in the third quarter. They led by 22 after the third quarter, 93 to 71. 7:27 Uh, Minnesota made some inroads in the fourth. They never got it to single digits, though. They never got it closer than 10. OKC wins it by 15. SGA 38. Jalen Williams, who Kelly says is overrated. J-Dub? 26 to 10. 7:42 Holmgren- Oh, I don't, did I ever use those exact words? Oh, what, didn't you? Chet Holmgren's b- I, I, I think Chet Holmgren's more valuable to this team going forward than, uh, J-Dub. Holmgren 22. 7:51 I th- I apologize if I misquoted you. I thought you said that about him. I mean, maybe. Yeah. [laughs] Okay. [laughs] I, well he can't... Well, that took a lot to for him to come around on. 7:58 I've probably called everybody overrated at some point. Okay. Maybe you're right. Maybe, maybe I did say that. Ant 32, 9 and 6 in defeat. Randall, six points. Remember, this was your key, right? 8:08 Your key was Julius Randall has to have himself great games. Mm-hmm. He had himself a great first half in game one, and, uh, since then, oh boy. 8:19 Last night, six points on two of 11 shooting, zero for three from behind the arc, and the T-Wolves once again, a turnover fest, 14 for them. 8:26 I think it's, what's real tough if you are, uh, a Wolves backer, Wolves fan, is just looking down at, it, look, look, Randall, yeah, that's, that was massive last night, him not really showing up. 8:36 But Anthony Edwards, after kind of a dud of game one, uh, I mean, he showed up big time. He showed up, I, I mean, 32 points. Uh, yeah, he's 12 of 26 from the field. 8:46 Still struggled with the three ball, but nine rebounds, six assists. He was doing a little bit of everything out there a- a- and really giving this team exactly what they needed from a scoring standpoint. 8:55 You get 17 from Nickeil Alexander-Walker. You get 22 from Jaden McDaniels, I actually thought looked, looked fantastic offensively last night. But it's just gonna take more than that to beat this Thunder team, man. 9:07 And I, and the turnovers, they keep occurring. Uh, honestly, 14 is not bad for what this, uh, Thunder team normally forces. 9:13 But yeah, you just see when they're, when they're executing a little better, more, more efficiently in the half court like they were last night, the Oklahoma City Thunder, and the b- the big three, just to go back to the J-Dub, right? 9:24 If we are gonna say there's a big three here, that's always been my concern, or my, the concern for this team the past couple years, is this enough alongside SGA? 9:33 And that's maybe where we're going with my overrated comments, or alleged overrated comments for J-Dub. He, he got to it. 9:38 It's, the big question is are those two gonna be able, in the moments where they're needed, to step up and supplement what SGA did? And that's what we saw last night, Gil. 9:47 That was my biggest takeaway was we had SGA, J-Dub, and Chet all come through with big games for them when they didn't have the 10, 11 deep, uh, showing up as much. Here's what I wanna know. 9:58 OKC a road favorite in game three. This is down a tick from where it was. It's two and a half now. OKC favored by two and a half on the road, game three tomorrow at Minnesota. Total 218. 10:10 Is that where you thought it would be? Um, I, so I was a little bit surprised. Look, if we're just playing home court, what, what should the spread be going back to Minnesota? Yeah, it should be around this number. 10:21 We just usually see this baked in a little bit more for the team down 0-2 going home. 10:27 I just don't, I don't think these oddsmakers want [laughs] I don't think they wanna make this cl- any closer to a pick 'em, 'cause they're gonna get an avalanche of Thunder money. 10:33 Oh, for, for, no doubt they would at that point. Uh, what about tonight? Game two, Knicks now up to a six-point favorite at home against the Pacers. We'll talk to, uh, Alex Christensen about this on the other side. 10:44 But Knicks six-point favorites in game two. It's the old zigzag for all the NFL, uh, NFL, all the NBA bettors that they love so much, where the, uh, home team gets beaten in game one. 10:55 Now the spread goes even higher to six in game two. 224 and a half is your total here. Yeah, Knicks for me. Uh, we talked a bit about this yesterday, but I played Knicks full game. 11:05 I played Knicks first half, and I, my favorite bet is Carl Anthony Towns over 23 and a half points. We talked about him before the series. Thought he was gonna have, be able to have a big series. Had a huge game one. 11:16 Um, he's kinda showed Ole Juergens' Pacers team he's gonna be a problem. A- and, and the Pacers were struggling for answers early in that game. 11:23 I just, there was the, the beginning with the lightning fast pace that we saw in that game, and then the crazy ending, and then this big chunk in between I think that gets lost, where the Knicks were playing really good basketball. 11:36 I think if they can recover mentally, Gil, like you brought up yesterday, they show up tonight. Is this spread gonna go even higher by, by tip-off? Uh, not much. Not much. 11:44 I, I think six, six and a half probably where we close. All right. We'll get Alex Noops Christensen's thoughts on this on the other side. The NBA on a Numbers Game right here at VSiN. 11:51 [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back with the Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, and my little buddy Kelly Bidley with me. Right, buddy? 12:07 Kelly Bidley. Yo. Uh, producer number nine, so much more than a producer. We get tweets at Beginning of the Book, I just wanna read these. 12:12 Uh, Master of Puppets, "With the $100,000 entry, do you think we could finance it?" He says. [laughs] Well, that's between you and your bank, I believe. Can I get a marker? 12:22 Uh, Real Knicks, "I'm offended as a Greek American that the graphic for the Grandissimo contest is using a Greek letter font, but it's an Italian word. I want my $100,000 back." 12:33 W- I was actually wondering the same thing when we put it up on, uh, on air. I was too. I was too. You, you said something off air that, before we get to, uh, Noops here, I, w- you said something- Yeah... 12:41 that, that I, I s- was, was with, uh, was with Parls and, and Wes last night, and I said exactly what you just said off air, which is the Pacers have you so conditioned now that no game is over, that I actually said this out loud to them yesterday. 12:57 It's so funny you brought up the same thing, where it's like, "Oh, it's down to 11. Oh, it's down to 10." Like, 13:03 w- this game in any other normal year, it's over already, but, like, because the Pacers keep doing what they're doing- Yeah... we're like, "I don't know. I gotta keep watching this. You never know." 13:10 Combine that with a, a position where you've got a bunch of t- futures tickets on, like I do with the Thunder. Yeah. And what, what was the lead, 24 at one point? 20- But it's like, uh-oh... 24, yeah. 13:20 They've, uh, they've made it 15 with three minutes left, and I'm like, "Oh, boy. Oh, boy. This isn't over yet." [laughs] Like, this is getting a little sweaty, Gil. [laughs] Getting- Getting a little sweaty... 13:29 [laughs] You're in your little panic stance. Like, no, no, just easy runaway as it was all this time. They never got it within 10- Yeah... but you were still on your, uh, tip of your toes. 13:36 You're like, "Well, this could happen." It's like JDub three to put them back up 17, and I'm like, "Yes." Uh, pleasure to welcome to the show a gentleman who is in, what did we just say, fourth place now- Yeah... 13:45 in the, uh, NBA Vixen Killer Challenge, with roughly, I don't know what, five, six games left to play. 13:51 Again, it's not, uh, even, because folks have as much as, as long as they want to play five here in this round, and then three more obviously in the NBA finals. It's Alex "Noops" Christensen. 14:01 Uh, you can follow his work at FTN Fantasy, where, uh, Aaron Schatz does his stuff at FTN on the football side- Mm-hmm... of things. And then, uh, Bet US. Uh, follow him on Twitter at _Noops. 14:11 He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Alex? It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood, gentlemen, plenty of basketball. All the games have been good. 14:19 And I heard what you were talking about there for just a second. It is strange, right? That we're at this point where we feel like no lead is safe. 14:25 I, I think with the Pacers specifically, the, the pace that they play with, if you will, the way they shoot threes, that's a little different. I felt pretty good, unlike Kelly. 14:34 I was pretty sure the Thunder were gonna win as soon as they got up double digits. Uh, let me, let's bookmark that. I wanna ask a couple, uh, administrative questions here first. One, how did we get the name Noops? 14:43 What's that? So you might notice that Noops is spoon backwards. Oh. And, um, when I was in high school, I was a big Clarence Weatherspoon fan. I used to wear a Clarence Weatherspoon jersey all the time. 14:54 They started calling me Spoon. You go to college, you play those terrible icebreaker games. One was, um, two truths and a lie, and I would always win two truths and a lie because my lie would be I play baseball. 15:04 And my, one of my truths would be people call me Spoon. So of course, after a while, that sort of stuck. Again, my friends in college got bored of Spoon. My buddy Gordon was sick of- [laughs]... Brian, Gordon, and Spoon. 15:14 So we became Nod, Rog, Nerb, and Noops. [laughs] There it is. That is a very good explanation. So, so- That was locked and loaded. He's been asked this before, Gil... 15:22 so not Washington Bullets great Nick Weatherspoon, but Clarence Weatherspoon- No... uh, started this whole thing. Exactly. All right. 15:27 And then where can folks get, and when can folks get your Bet US shows, and where can they find your FTN Fantasy stuff? Yeah, everything of course runs through my Twitter, @_Noops. 15:37 I put pics out in the FTN Fantasy Discord all the time. I'm hanging out there. 15:41 And the Bet US NBA show, when we're done here, if you wanna hear more basketball from me, every Monday through Friday at noon, we've got a show today. We're gonna break down both games, myself, Sean T. 15:51 Green, you might know him from the Sports Gambling Podcast, and the aforementioned Carl Sack, who's leading the, uh, pick competition. Yes, Carl Sack, the brainchild. 15:58 Uh, he, he, his was the brainchild for this competition, which by the way, you are still alive. There's the standings once again. Alex, Alex has 13 in the loss column. 16:06 That's the real thing you have to look at here- Mm-hmm... when, when, uh, the games aren't uniform. So still very much in this grand prize $3,000. 16:14 Stevie Fezzik once again putting his foot down last night with a two and O. 16:17 Uh, okay, about what you were just saying then, Alex, which is, and you'll forgive me if I call you Alex instead of Noops here, since this is the first time we're- Go ahead [laughs]... we're talking. 16:24 Um, I don't want, mean to be formal or anything. Um, you said you, you were never worried about it last night in terms of the, the final outcome. What about the series in general? 16:34 Uh, the Thunder, two and a half, three-point favorites, still three consensus, but I'm seeing some two and a halves. Three-point favorites on the road, game three tomorrow night at Minnesota. 16:42 Um, h- what does this feel like to you? Does this feel like a gentle- a, a five-game gentleman sweep kind of thing? Yeah, I, I, well, coming into the series, I was thinking Thunder in five, maybe Thunder in six. 16:53 I, I'm still waiting for Anthony Edwards to really put his mark on this series. I, I'm not sure if it's the Thunder defense just being so good that he's uncomfortable. 17:02 Maybe he finally sprained his ankle one too many times. It just doesn't look like him. I'm just not seeing the, kind of the juice from him. 17:09 And, uh, basically since the Thunder s- got through the third quarter at game one, they have looked far and away to me the better team in this series. I, I do still think Minnesota will find a way to steal one. 17:19 When you look at this line for game three, I, I think that's the adjustment for the market sort of knowing that a lot of people are gonna come in on the Timberwolves. 17:25 You know, teams that are up 2-0 go on the road game three, generally that team at home does pretty well here. 17:31 I do, but I think for the most part, barring some sort of horrendous injury or something goofy like that, I think we're looking at the Thunder here to close this thing out, probably at home at five, maybe on the road in six. 17:41 If I gave the Thunder truth serum, who would they rather play in an NBA finals, or, or would they not be spooked by either team? 17:49 I think they'd rather play the Knicks a- simply because the Pacers do a lot of things that the Thunder do. They're happy to push pace. They p- they play really good defense. They don't turn the ball over. 17:59 Um, it, it's a team that i- in the way the Thunder sort of slowly, like a boa, wrap themselves around you and just squeeze and squeeze and squeeze for four quarters. 18:08 I, I think trying to do that to Indiana's gonna be a little tougher because at the same time, that's kind of what Indiana does. They run you ragged for three quarters and then take advantage of that in the fourth. 18:16 So a- as much as I know seeing Jalen Brunson's gonna be really scary for them, I think they'd rather see the, a Knicks team that's got a little shorter bench, a little more tired, a- and just a little less maybe dynami- dynamicism is the word I'm looking for. 18:29 Wow. Good word. By the way, have you had a boa squeeze and squeeze and squeeze around you? S- sounded like you had personal experience with this. No? Nothing. Uh, luckily, no. 18:37 Oh, good I've been good enough to avoid, uh, most snakes, especially giant ones. [laughs] Oh, good. Um, okay, to tonight, and maybe we can sort of cleverly glean if you're gonna have a pick tonight. 18:47 We can do this- Ooh... try to glean a competitive advantage here with you, Alex. Uh, Pacers and Knicks, game two, obviously game one, a classic of the highest order. 18:56 Uh, maybe not if you're a Knicks fan, maybe not if you're, you were a Knicks backer. But the Pacers are six-point dogs now, the, uh, proverbial zigzag situation tonight. Up to six. Uh, I don't know if it'll get higher. 19:08 No one knows. We shall see, but a six-point spread, 224 and a half now on the total. Are you playing tonight's game either side or total? 19:18 Yeah, the side is very tough, and it's one of those situations where, uh, maybe I am holding on to the fact that I, I probably should have bet the Pacers more in the previous series, that I'm a little too hesitant to do it now. 19:29 I think six is, six, six and a half, uh, it's Pacers or pass for me. What I like is the total, 224, 224 and a half. Uh, you know, playoff basketball, what we see from most teams is first half, pretty good pace. 19:42 The ball's moving. Second half, things really start to grind down. Indiana has really sort of changed that script. They continue to push the ball. They almost play faster in the second half of these games. 19:51 So instead of looking at maybe just a first half over, I think this full game total is at least a couple points too low. Like you said, 224, 224 and a half, I was expecting to see something closer to 226, 227. 20:03 So I'm gonna be on the over tonight in a game where, again, the pace is gonna be fast, and when I look at totals, shooting efficiency comes and goes. 20:10 It's, it's really hard to figure out who's gonna shoot the ball very well each night. But pace for me is what really drives totals, and as long as the Pacers continue to push the ball here, I'm gonna keep playing overs. 20:20 Contest play perhaps, Alex, from you? Maybe? Sounds like it? Yeah. I, I believe so- Well... 'cause like you said, now the contest, it's all about game theory. That's right. 20:28 So what I need to do today is watch, watch, again, go back and watch this show, Gil, figure out who you're going to pick- That's right... 'cause you're ahead of me. 20:34 I gotta bug Fezzik, see what he's into, and then maybe start to get to some of that stuff. But I, I, I'm gonna be hard-pressed not to take the over in the contest. 20:41 Yeah, I, Noops, I think we just need winners for me and you at this point right now. Just need winners. Yeah, we just need winners. Yeah. Need winners. And hope everything else breaks our way. 20:48 [laughs] So last thing here, Alex, so, so adjusted series prices. Now, the T Wolves, again, over $9 you get if, if the T Wolves were to somehow come back and beat OKC. 20:57 Sounds like barring the unforeseen catastrophe with OKC, you would not recommend playing that price. But what about the Pacers and the Knicks? 21:04 Now, with the Pacers up one-nothing, they've taken home court regardless of what happens tonight. Uh, Pacers are now, basically this is flipped, Pacers minus 145 favorite. 21:14 It's not quite a total flip, but Pacers minus 145 adjusted series, the Knicks plus 125 on the comeback. Is there a bet there for folks? 21:22 Like if folks are like, "I wanna bet this series right now," which is the way you would go? So this is kind of a tough position. 21:29 Uh, so myself personally, I've got some Pacers futures kind of already in my pocket, and I've been looking at maybe an opportunity to grab some Knicks, but I still feel really confident in Indiana. 21:39 I think that if you're New York, to not be able to win that first game is really, really heartbreaking. They put a lot of effort into that. A, a lot of guys played a really solid game. 21:48 I think New York probably bounces back tonight, but I, I'm looking at ways to back the Pacers still. I mean, I'm looking right now, Pacers minus one and a half games. I'm seeing that at minus 110. 21:57 Basically that means the Pacers win in six or less. I think that's the best bet on the board. I had Pacers in six coming into the series, and I still feel like it's Pacers in six. 22:05 So take a look at maybe a Pacers game spread. Again, minus one and a half, minus 110 looks really nice. 22:11 If you're a little more bullish on Indiana, I don't mind the idea of taking the Pacers here, um, you know, minus two and a half games, plus 225. 22:17 Now, not sure the Knicks are gonna totally roll over, but that's kind of the angle I'm looking for. I think Pacers minus one and a half games is probably the best bet on the board. Alex, great to meet you, man. 22:26 Appreciate the time. Absolute pleasure, gentlemen. Best of luck until we talk again. You too. Good luck in the contest as well. Alex Christensen, everybody, @_noops on Twitter. 22:37 I'm serious, man, I still think I have a, I have the feeling that both of these series are gonna be stupid quick, and we're gonna have like a eight-day break before the NBA Finals. It's always a brutal- Yeah... 22:47 it's brutal. Uh, Warren Sharp, football schedule next right here on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music] The Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa Resort and Casino. 22:59 Don't forget about VSiN At The Track, expert analysis, race previews, exclusive interviews, best bets, live on VSiN's YouTube page. That's today and every Friday, 2:10 PM Eastern @VSINLive. 23:12 Mike Semanch doing his, uh, doing his thing with this each and every, uh, Friday. We, we say 2:10 PM Eastern. He says 2:15 PM Eastern. But get there five minutes early. Yeah, get there in advance. Yeah. 23:24 Get your popcorn ready, okay? Do the man, do the man the respect. He got you a superfecta in the Derby, right? Only could hit a winner though last week. Uh, jeez, what a hack. 23:32 [laughs] VSiN At The Track, live on VSiN's YouTube page, again, today, 2:10 PM Eastern. Uh, this is always a treat when, uh, he joins us. It's, uh, it's an annual tradition. 23:41 We used to have Warren on all the time, but he's a very busy man. He, when, when he worked in the NFL, um, and now among other things, he's got a couple things going on. 23:49 He's got his football preview guide, which he has out each and every year, and then when the schedule comes out, he goes gangbusters. 23:56 From Sharp Football on Twitter, sharpfootballanalysis.com, Warren Sharp joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Warren? I'm doing great, Gil. 24:05 It's a fun time of year because now we actually have real games that are set on the schedule. We can talk about the games. We can talk about the season. It's a great time to be an NFL fan. 24:14 Yeah, I, we were, we were getting to this off-air just before you came on, which is the schedule comes out, and then you break it down so quickly. What's that period of time like for you? 24:26 I mean, there's no templates to this necessarily, so I mean, how have you gotten it down to the fact that you can do it so quickly like that? 24:35 Well, I, I do have formulas and algorithms where I pr- I, I load in all the data as absolutely quickly as I possibly can get it, and then I start breaking it down. 24:43 Um, I, I crunch the numbers Because it takes a while to actually be able to compare. What I like to do is I compare year over year, because I wanna see if the schedule makers are improving. 24:56 Everybody, most people look at the schedule from... I, I think I'm probably the only person that looks at the schedule from a, what did the NFL do to the 32 teams? 25:06 Everyone else looks at the schedule from, how's my team's schedule? What does my team's schedule look like? 25:11 And there's other people that are looking at it from just a pure betting perspective, like, where are the exact spots? Uh, some people like Monday night games, et cetera. 25:19 But I'm looking at it as, did the league screw the teams more this year than they did in the past? Are things getting worse because the league is so focused on ratings? 25:28 Um, and it's, it's a mad rush for me to, to process my analysis, and then to come back with the findings and to report objectively. If there's improvements, I'm gonna share those. 25:39 If there's things that are continuing to get worse, I'm gonna share those. 25:42 And as always, of course, we're gonna identify the spots that certain teams are getting screwed and certain teams have the benefits, and we're gonna break that down with you guys over the next half hour. 25:52 Has anyone at the league ever, like, said to you, and I mean this seriously, 'cause I've wondered about this, uh, has anybody like, "Hey, uh, Warren, you're, you're kind of pissing us off. Could you stop doing this?" 25:59 Has anybody said anything to you? Not directly, but indirectly I do know that they, uh, certainly are aware of the analysis that I do. They are, in some cases, unhappy with the analysis that I do. 26:13 Um, and, you know, I've worked with owners directly in, in years past, identifying things, pointing it out to them, that they would then take to the NFL to complain about as it relates to the schedule. 26:25 Um, but in more recent years it's been more public analysis. 26:30 Like, last year, for example, was the worst schedule that I have ever seen from the NFL in terms of rest disparity, teams with edges, teams with disadvantages all in the same year. 26:41 Um, and the league k- the, all those games, 10 games, 10 teams had to play three games in 10 days, which hadn't been done even one time for, like, seven years. It was absolutely absurd. 26:52 Um, so identifying those things and speaking out loudly about them, maybe it helps a little bit because they reduced that down to one game this year. Uh, but certainly they, I, I don't think I'm a, 27:05 th- they're gonna be sending me any Christmas cards- Yeah. [laughs]... let's just put it that way. Okay. And I remember that analysis last year. Th- there were tons of teams that had three games in 10 days. 27:12 There was a few that had four in 17, if I remember correctly. And so they, they did a good job at least in terms of mostly eliminating that. 27:18 I think Dallas is the one exception that you pointed out, uh, one time they play three games in 10 days around Thanksgiving. 27:24 Uh, okay, before we launch into this, 'cause I have questions, uh, what is this, I, I teased your segment by saying you have a special offer for all VSiN listeners. What is that, sir? 27:35 Yeah, well, this book, it's a, it's a 500-page book. Um, and I'm gonna give it to you guys for just $1. Uh, here's the book right here. I spend, and my team does as well, assisting me, months. 27:45 We're in the middle of it right now. 27:47 I was doing some great analysis on, uh, on the Rams last night, and some things I think that could help the Rams if Sean McVay wants to, uh, flip into his team chapter once this thing gets published in July. 27:57 But you can get this book for just $1 if you go to sharp.football and enter the code VSiN. It'll drop the price from $35 for the PDF down to just $1. 28:07 Probably no better way to spend a dollar in terms of trying to find edges this season than going over to sharp.football today and grabbing a copy. $1. Uh, it's, it's a heck of a deal, Warren. That's, that's- That is-... 28:19 tremendous That is awesome. 28:20 I, mean that, this is, I think for everybody that gets ready for, for NFL during the off-season, and there's a lot of prep work we all put in as bettors, I- Warren's stuff is one of the must g- go gets every single off-season, and for a dollar, get it now. 28:32 Lock it in now. It, and that's, that's awesome. From $35 to $1 for the PDF form of this. Uh, okay. Uh, we'll remind folks of this, uh, coming up as well. But let's launch into one thing. 28:42 Let's go to the, you guys have the, uh, five, we have the five easiest schedules. Now, this is off, based off opponent win totals. 28:48 This is not the things you hear on mainstream media where they're doing it off last year's win percentages. This is actual betting stuff based on season win totals. 28:56 San Francisco with the easiest, New England with the second easiest, New Orleans third, Atlanta fourth, Buffalo fifth. 29:04 Just wanna ask you about a couple teams on this list, one of which is, first of all, San Francisco at the top. I mean, should folks be running to, uh, to make some season-long wagers on the Niners based on this alone? 29:15 Well, from, from a strength of schedule perspective, they're great, and from a rest perspective, they are also great. They have one of the best net rest edges of any team in the league this year. 29:26 I have them ranked fifth in my overall best prep and rest, uh, variable analysis. So, you know, it is rare, you guys both know this, uh, being on the West Coast, the, for the 49ers to have a really down year. 29:38 Under, under Kyle Shanahan, w- they go to the NFC Championship game more often than they have a down year. Now, they may not win the Super Bowl, we know that. 29:46 They need to get to that and win that, but they are very successful. 29:51 And so for them to have a very poor year last year, 6-11, and play as easy of a schedule as they're able to play this season, and then get the rest advantages, and I think the big, Gil, what we love to look at and identify are the big swings, right? 30:05 If you're talking about strength of schedule, it's the teams you got listed here, the five easiest, the 10 easiest, or the five hardest, the, the 10 hardest. We're talking about rest advantage. 30:13 The San Francisco 49ers each of the last two years had a minus 20 day rest advantage or worse, for two straight years, and now all of a sudden they're plus nine, I believe, this season. And, uh, yeah, plus nine. 30:28 Fourth-best net rest advantage this season. That is going to be a big difference-maker from minus 20 for two straight years now to plus nine this upcoming season. There's absolutely work that they need to do. 30:39 There are, they are a fragile roster. Uh, if they sustain injuries- It's harder for a team like them to overcome them. 30:46 Not only are they top-heavy from a salary perspective, but just think about Kyle Shanahan himself, how he utilizes these players. 30:53 He's carved out such unique roles for guys, and they're such unique players, like a George Kittle. 30:59 Uh, th- so that if they lose that George Kittle or a Kyle Juszczyk, then this team really struggles to overcome that, because the replacement player isn't just a plug and play type guy. 31:09 They're doing so many different things with a guy like a George Kittle or a Christian McCaffrey or a, or a, uh, Kyle Juszczyk. 31:15 So they need to be healthy, but this is a team that has a lot of things set up really nicely for them in 2025. Yeah, and w- Warren is, uh, I should probably have done a better job of, of sort of saying this at the top. 31:25 There's your schedule, there's your opponents, and then within that, then within Warren's schedule breakdown, then you go to the notion of rest advantage and rest disadvantage. 31:33 When those two things are both on the positive side, both on the negative side, um, it's, it's one thing. We have a curious case. By the way, this is teams with the largest net rest advantage. We can throw that up there. 31:43 Lions plus 13. There are the Niners there in fourth at plus nine, so that's aggregate rest advantage taken over the course of the whole year. The Lions are the most curious case. 31:52 I'm gonna save them for the other side, because they actually have one of the, the hardest schedules based on opponents, but we'll get to that net rest advantage and how their schedule's very quirky and how that might take you off bets or give you pause to make bets. 32:06 Let me just go back to the, uh, the easiest, uh... Excuse me, pardon me. Yes, the, uh, yeah, the easiest schedule. So the Niners are the easiest. 32:13 The Bills are fifth, talking about a team that, you know, should coast, barring the unforeseen, should coast to an AFC East, uh, victory. 32:22 Fifth easiest schedule based on opponents, but also, like, the toughest opponents are all at home, right, Warren? 32:29 Yeah, the thing that I love about the Bills' schedule, if you are the Bills, not only are y- y- your, your point is the biggest point to make. Their toughest four opponents are all at home. 32:38 I'm pulling up their schedule right here, but they've got the... 32:41 I know they got the Philadelphia Eagles, the Kansas City Chiefs, the Baltimore Ravens, and the Cincinnati Bengals, and those four teams are all at home in Buffalo. That's a big advantage. 32:50 I also love the way th- and this... See, the NFL, to your point earlier, the NFL does not choose who you play. 32:57 That's predetermined based on last season's record for three of your games, and the rest of it's just a rolling calendar that moves forward each year. 33:05 But they do determine when you're going to play those teams, and for the Bills' schedule, you can see it on the screen there, they open with a tough game against the Ravens. 33:12 Their next toughest game isn't until the Kansas City Chiefs, week nine. 33:15 That's another tent pole in the middle of their, their season, and then they go to the very end of the season, where they're playing the Philadelphia Eagles. 33:21 I just love the way that it breaks up the difficult games for the Bills, and they're all at home. Warren Sharp right here on The Numbers Game. Uh, Warren's kind enough to stick around for one more segment. 33:30 Uh, we'll remind you how to get his preview again for $1, and we'll get to the Lions, Giants, Raiders, Commanders. We'll talk about all these teams. 33:39 Warren Sharp right here on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Don't forget to check out thesharpplays.com. 33:57 Unmatched transparency with records updated daily. AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, and alerts directly from the pros. We invite you to check out thesharpplays.com. 34:06 That is not affiliated with our current guest, Warren Sharp, just coincidentally that we're, uh, reading that promo there in that, uh, segment. 34:13 Warren Sharp from Sharp Football on Twitter, uh, the author of his Pro Football Preview Guide yearly, Sharp Football Analysis 2025 Football Preview Guide, and of course, a guy who, uh, breaks down schedule and more. 34:25 But the, but the football preview is not just schedule. I just wanna make that clear. Uh, Warren talks about all kinds of other things. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line once again. 34:33 Uh, remind us again, Warren, how folks can get this Sharp Football Analysis preview for $1. Where do they go? Head, head to sharp.football, and it'll take you to a page. You'll see an ad for it right there. 34:45 You click the ad. Enter in code VSiN to drop the price from $35 to $1. $1. One United States dollar. Uh, real quick before we go back to the schedule, uh, you and I were talking about the Rams a little bit off air. 34:59 I thought that was pretty interesting. What have you uncovered about their, uh, goal to go situations? 35:05 Yeah, in part of my writing the Rams chapter for the book, which each chapter's, like, 15 pages, goes into detail, for the LA Rams, I was looking at Matthew Stafford's efficiency last year, and I saw how much he was struggling down inside the 10 yard line in go to go situations, passing the football. 35:21 You look at the rest of the field, the other 90 yards, he's top five, top 10 quarterback. But down in goal to go, he was struggling. 35:27 And so then I looked at the Rams over the last several years for Stafford, and it's been, he's been in, like, the 40th ranking quarterback, number 40, uh, in goal to go passing. 35:36 And what I started to realize, the light bulb goes off, is of course, that it's a lot easier to pass the ball from a condensed formation down at the goal line. 35:43 So I looked up at the Rams, and lo and behold, they utilize 92% 11 personnel down in goal to goal situations. 35:51 And so I really think that if the LA Rams and Sean McVay utilized a little bit less spread formation down at the goal line when they're passing the football, their touchdown rate, their efficiency passing the ball, would go significantly higher, and that would help everything about the Rams trying to beat a win total. 36:09 And if you've got them up on the screen here, they have one of the best net rest edges. The entire NFC West had the good fortune of getting solid net rest edges this upcoming season. 36:18 They do have a more difficult schedule than the San Francisco 49ers, but I do think that there are opportunities for them to tweak just a couple of things and to really improve their efficiency and their production and win more games in 2025. 36:29 I love that, stuff like that in Warren's football preview. Rams win total nine and a half this year. 36:33 By the way, before we get back to the schedule, I lied, but since you were talking the goal to go, it triggered the tush push in my head. Are you a tush push guy? Were you in favor of keeping it or banning it? 36:44 It didn't really matter to me. I think the biggest tush push discussion point for me is simply that teams don't need to utilize the tush push. 36:50 The quarterback sneak is just fine, and teams aren't utilizing it nearly enough. I shared the information. Quarterback sneaks, I think, converted over the last three years 84% of the time. 37:02 Teams utilize quarterback sneaks in third and fourth and one yard to go. 84% converted to first down. But they are being utilized at just a 23% rate. 37:11 23% of all third and fourth down and one plays are quarterback sneaks, including tush pushes. 37:18 Makes no sense to me when you- when teams are trying to go and drop back to pass the ball on third or fourth and one, or try to, uh, running back run. These are, like, 61, 64% conversion rate. 37:29 Quarterback sneaks are way up at 84%. Your quarterback's not gonna get injured as much as people tell you. Tom Brady, Drew Brees, these guys were doing it for years. It's about disguise. 37:38 It's about getting to the line of scrimmage quickly and executing it so that the defenders aren't crowding around. So I just think more teams need to quarterback sneak in general. Um, so tush push- Yeah... 37:49 they can try to build tush push packages if they want, but, you know, utilize some more quarterback sneaks as well. 37:54 The sneak thing is so interesting because, and you and I have talked about it through the years, like, Philip Rivers, there's, like, one piece of Zapruder film-like footage of him sneaking, like, one time when he was younger. 38:04 He refused to do it after that, or they just wouldn't call it, whatever their deal was. Big Ben had the word big in his nickname- Yep... and he wouldn't do it towards the end of his career. 38:13 So maybe it's a, it's an injury concern more than anything. Here, here's just some nuggets, and I, I wanna crescendo this to the Lions. Uh, Steelers fans out there, Steelers... f- folks thinking of betting the Steelers. 38:23 Number one toughest schedule of opponents week seven on. Uh, number two toughest rest and prep schedule. This is from Warren's, uh, preview. Um, rest scheduling disadvantage in five of their six toughest games. 38:36 Uh, disadvantage versus Buffalo. Disadvantage of three days in Baltimore. Also, a one-day rest disadvantage in Detroit. Seven-day disadvantage versus Cincinnati. Short week road game in Cincinnati. 38:46 The Raiders, for all you Raiders fans out there, um, no team got hit harder, per Warren, by the 2025 schedule than the Raiders. Fewest rest edge games. Most rest disadvantage games. Net minus 19 days of rest. 38:59 Worst in the NFL. I wanna ask you, though, about the Lions specifically in our, in some of our remaining time here, because they've got one... 39:06 You know, in terms of just the, the breadth of their opponents, it's one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. But you sort of broke down their schedule, and it's like it is not what it seems, is it? No, it's not. 39:20 For the first time in NFL history, a team is being allowed to play eight games where they have a rest edge over their opponent. Historically, that's happened only to teams six times was the most. Six games was the most. 39:33 Not seven, but eight edges do the Lions have. They only have one game with a rest disadvantage. As a result, they are plus seven games in net rest advantage spots. That's never happened before in NFL history either. 39:46 They, th- it's only been plus four. The Lions are plus seven games. They are going to play a historic number. 39:53 You're seeing the schedule here of a couple of times that they do play on Monday Night Football, where the Lions have the benefit themselves of playing five teams that are coming off of a Monday Night Football game. 40:03 That has never happened before in NFL history. What that allows the team to do, and you might say, "Well, it's just one day difference." If the Lions... Think about this. 40:11 If the Lions play at 1:00 on a Sunday, they then get home in the afternoon, uh, early evening, start to rest, maybe break down film, have all night to recover and rest and, and rehab, all day Monday to do the same, study film of themselves, study film of their opponent. 40:27 Then they get to sit there and watch their opponent who they're gonna play the next week play on Monday Night Football, get beat up. That team doesn't get home until Tuesday morning. So the Lions have so... 40:36 L- like that one day, it's actually more like a day and a half. They play five teams off of that, uh, Monday Night Football game. So there are some edges built in there for the Detroit Lions. 40:46 It is unique because they play such a tough schedule of opponents. 40:49 But this schedule of rest is definitely not only the best net rest edge, as you see they're number one on the screen, but these spots and the number of games where they have rest are unprecedented in NFL history. 41:01 Do you think, Warren, that... I mean, the obvious follow-up to me is this: Do you think the NFL schedule makers are... I'll give you a few choices here. 41:09 They're aware of it, and they're like, "Well, somebody's gonna get the best of it, so, oh, well, it's them." 41:15 Or two, they're, it, they actually go into it saying to themselves, "Well, if there's going to be a rest advantage for somebody, let's make it this team." 41:25 Or they do it, third choice, they, they figure out that it's going to be the Lions, and then they say to themselves, "Well, that's not a bad team for us to sort of catapult that way." 41:34 Which, which of those is most likely? I, I, those are all good, solid scenarios that could happen. I think it's probably most likely number three. 41:41 They're not trying to give them these rest edges, but they build out their schedule, and they're like, "This isn't a bad thing to have the Lions b- b- offset the difficult schedule that they've got." 41:50 The thing to me that bothers me more than just the number of games, which is ridiculous, like eight games, is the fact that if you look at the rest of the NFC North, right? We still have divisions. 41:59 We, that, that was a ruling. We're still... It matters who wins that division for the playoff seeding. Uh, they've got one game with a rest disadvantage. Every other team in their division has at least four. 42:09 They've got those eight games with a rest advantage. No other team in their division has more than four. Wow. And as a result, from a net games, I talked about the Lions have plus seven games. 42:19 No other team is above zero. Every other team, like the Chicago Bears from a games with a rest advantage, they're at minus three. The Lions are at a plus seven. That's 10 games swing in a 17-game schedule. 42:31 So I just don't think it's fair, specifically in the North, for the Lions to get this much rest and none of the other teams in their division to get anywhere close to the same benefit. It's, it's interesting. 42:42 Lions, again, season win total is 10 and a half. 42:44 So before you, like, rush, you see, you know, you'll hear on mainstream media, "Oh my God, they have all these tough opponents," think about something like that, and that should give you pause before you fade a team like the Giants. 42:53 Uh, before you fade a team like the Lions, pardon me. 42:56 About the Giants, unlike the Bills, who have all their toughest games at home, the Giants, who, clearly the Giants are not like the Bills as a, uh, when it comes to talent, but their home schedule is the number one toughest in the NFL. 43:07 They got Kansas City at home. They got the Chargers at home. They got the Eagles at home, the Niners, the Packers. So they're, I mean, it's just every opponent forecast for over nine wins. That's just brutality. 43:18 And then there's... And I'll let you go with this in 30 seconds or less, Warren. Then there's the quirk with the Bengals. They always play the Ravens on the road on a Thursday night. That's brutal. And unfair. 43:29 They should not be forced. They've played now three straight times on the road in Baltimore. Baltimore is nine and 0 hosting Thursday games. 43:37 Short week road games, I wrote an article up at Sharp Football Analysis you can read on all the different situational spots and what edges they provide, and I looked at some of the ATS numbers as well. 43:46 Going on the road on a short week game is extremely difficult. The Bengals have lost two straight times in Baltimore on a Thursday. You know how many times Baltimore's gone to Cincinnati and played on a Thursday? 43:56 Once since 2006. It's far too frequent that the Bengals are having to play on Thursday in Baltimore. It's not fair. It's obviously gonna get righted next year. 44:06 I mean, Joe Burrow was at a press conference speaking on it, so it's gonna get fixed, but it's not fair for 2025. Warren, super appreciate it, man. 44:14 Good luck with everything, and thanks for the offer for all Visa listeners. Appreciate that especially. Hey, thanks for having me, Gil. Warren Sharp, everybody, @sharpfootball. 44:22 We'll, uh, repeat, uh, how you get to the $1 deal here momentarily as well. Coming up, some tennis. French Open is upon us, and I've got some quarter bets that I have made I will share next. [upbeat music]
