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May 24, 2024
A Numbers Game | May 24, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 24, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:10
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the e-sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. We appreciate, uh, however you're taking us in this morning. It's Gil Alexander.
0:19
It is Kelly Bidlin in the hizzy right here at the shield table. You ever have a shield table at your house before this? No, I have not. Now we have one. Maybe you take this to your house. Hey.
0:30
[laughs] Here at the D, it's massive. Look at that thing. Overhead shot. It's a shield. Yeah, this would look great in my entire living room. Like, it, it would, uh, yeah.
0:40
I don't even know if I'd have r- have room for it there. How do you get it in is the- Right. [laughs] Yeah. Uh, still to come this hour, Jonathan Davis. Let's do that hockey.
0:48
We're gonna do that later with Jonathan Davis. Great game last night between the Dallas Stars and the Edmonton Oilers.
0:52
We'll talk East and West, uh, finals, that is, with Jonathan Davis from, uh, the Ice Cap on SiriusXM NHL coming up. Uh, we'll also talk Jason Weingarten.
1:01
First, though, instant offense, the microwave, Vinnie Johnson, otherwise known as John Laghezza, everybody, from the Court Stats podcast, MLB and NFL writer for The Athletic. Don't sleep on the NFL part.
1:13
Uh, you can follow him @johnlaghezza. That's L-A-G-H-E-Z-Z-A, Laghezza, on Twitter, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. What's happening, Johnny? Yo, Gil, I missed you, man.
1:24
I, I've been out of commission since I spoke to you last. Feels so good to be back, everybody. Appreciate your health every day you have it. Man. Well, what, what are you- Even out of voice. Okay.
1:33
My wife ran out of, "Oh, it's so quiet," jokes. Like, the first couple days it's funny, and then after three weeks, people are just like... My, my kids are like, "Dad, could you scream about something?" I'm like...
1:43
I sounded like the dog. Yeah, I sounded like the dog from Grown Ups. He's like... Was the doctor like, "You've been diagnosed with too much enthusiasm. Maybe pipe it down a little bit"?
1:51
[laughs] He, well, he's like, "I've seen your show and you've used all your voice." Yeah. So, like, you've used up your reserves. [laughs] No, I, I'm obviously joking. When you said man, it made it sound pretty serious.
2:01
You, you okay? Yo, ev- no, everything is good. Everything checked out. It just, it was an infection that was close to my vocal cords. Oh, man.
2:08
That, again, I felt okay, but I couldn't talk, and me without talking was just, I don't know, man. It was something. It was something. I can see. I'm back.
2:17
I c- I could see Laghezza exploding if he can't talk, like, "What am I gonna do? How do I, how do I live?" Yeah. Oh my gosh. I can't write that fast. [laughs] Well, I'm glad you're doing better.
2:26
I mean, you know, there's been some famous, like, uh, musical artists who had, like, polyp scares. Whitney Houston did. Yeah. Lionel Richie did for some portion of his career. Yeah.
2:35
And, you know, it threatens everything, right? So, um, but- Yeah, and then if you're worried it's, you're actually sick, yeah, of course. Come on, let's, let's do some real stuff.
2:42
Let's, uh, I'll meet you at the cashier window. Come on, let's get it. All right. Let me just ask you before we get to your plays, 'cause you have a couple plays today.
2:48
Um, I have this Guardians bet for this month like I did last month. Last month, it ended in horrifically sick fashion, uh, for the best rec- for the most wins in March and April.
2:57
Th- they're playing great in May again, but the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Yankees are just refusing to lose baseball games. The Philadelphia Phillies- Yeah... in the month of May are, wait for it, 17 and 3.
3:12
17 and 3. Now, I know the competition is, uh, is not good, but that's part of the handicap of this bet, um, that is for everybody. So if you, if you're on the Phillies, good on you.
3:22
They're 17 and 3, plus 67 along the way this month [laughs] in run differential. Crazy. By the way, also five two in one run games.
3:30
I mean, when you have Wheeler and Suarez and Nola as your starters, and then you just have a, a lineup that won't quit. Yankees- Yeah... by the way, a paltry 16 and 5 right behind them, right? [laughs] They stink.
3:46
Um, are w- I mean, let me just ask you from, you know, beyond this month and for the rest of the season, are we looking at multiple 100 win teams?
3:56
Yeah, I, I think so, and it, it's a testament to how good both those teams have been. Remember, what separates them really at the end of the day is r- is the bullpens, in my opinion.
4:06
Because that's what is the wheat and the chaff in the big leagues, not being able to get those critical outs at the end of games, which the Phillies have done, which has been historically a problem for them.
4:16
They also hit on a lot of young players, and that's key, right? Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott. Yeah. Guys that maybe the, the everyday viewer doesn't necessarily know, but are kind of pushing their way to the fore.
4:28
It's kind of amazing that s- a lot of the damage you're talking about was without Castellanos and without Bryce Harper, right? Alec Bohm is playing like an MVP candidate, at least.
4:37
So whenever we're dealing with big outliers, I think regression to the mean is probably the best bet, but we've seen such a, this kind of binary separation in the league, teams that are really, really good and teams that are really, really bad, that, yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with multiple hundred winners, especially that they're in different, different leagues.
4:57
The ever-increasing chasm between the haves and the have-nots. Been saying it for years now. Yeah. It just keeps getting wider. Uh, all right. Yeah. What did, what did you land on today?
5:04
All right, first one, man, this is gonna sound crazy. I'm gonna bet on Alec Manoah. He's back for the Blue Jays, not just 'cause we, you know, share a similar husk. We've seen him excel. [laughs] What?
5:15
We've seen, we've seen him excel. Yeah. We, we, you know, we've seen him excel at, at the highest level, and it's very easy to kind of throw the baby out with the bathwater when last year was really rough.
5:25
He went from 200 brilliant innings in 2022 to pitching in the California Penal League with Ricky Vaughn last year. Like, things were really rough for him, but at the same time, it was more than that.
5:35
He had lost a mile an hour on the fastball. He mentioned some conditioning stuff with the pitch clock, and then we saw an adjustment in the pitch mask. All the... Pitch mix, excuse me.
5:44
All those things have been cleaned up for this year. That mile an hour is back on the fastball. They're throwing the changeup more and allowing him to induce whiffs with the slider.
5:52
He's working on 14 scoreless night, right now, and he looks exactly like the guy he did, right? He's, you know, he's attacking the zone. He's winning in the zone. He suppressed hard contact.
6:03
This is the pitcher that a lot of us thought we were gonna kind of get- Out of the box last year before that massive disappointment. I mean, you could just go down the line, 30 CSW, 79 zone contact.
6:13
He's keeping the ball down, suppressing all contact. He's been great. They're facing the Tigers, so I've been keeping my bets this year, Gil, to F5, so I should have been clear. I like the Blue Jays. Give me the F5.
6:23
You know, especially with a slight favorite like we have here, I got minus 115. I'll be honest, I don't know if it's the patience, I'm getting old. If I'm not winning F to 5, uh, just give me my money back.
6:33
I wanna, I wanna go do something else, right? Especially when you have a favorite in baseball, there's no need to ride the rollercoaster up and down with these wonky bullpens for two and a half hours wasting your life.
6:42
Yesterday, we did it with Pittsburgh. We hit on Skeens, we won, and for the people that had the Pirates ML, they spent three hours in a missing clumps of hair. So thanks but no thanks.
6:50
Give me F5 Toronto over the Tigers, who have Manning going, who I, I don't know. I... If he's wearing down, it's just been really kind of ugly. He's putting too many guys on base.
6:59
The control has been really out of whack. The double digit walk rate. He's not inducing chases. He's putting the ball in the air and getting barreled, and has been getting just crushed in the zone.
7:08
So Toronto offense has actually clicked up. I know, I actually have a lot of Canadian fans, and I know they've been really upset hoping for this huge bounce back. I think it's starting right now.
7:18
Toronto, last two weeks, 350 PAs, top five offense verse righties, 800 OPS, number one in line drive rate, 350 team WAR, but so give me Toronto through five. I think the Manoah bounce back.
7:29
He sits on the Tigers offense, which is also in a bit of a lull. So I think with the price, I don't think the markets have really caught up to Manoah quite yet. Yeah, I'm just, uh... A couple things.
7:38
One, I don't know if you caught that, uh, Kelly, but, uh, Lagasse and Alex Manoah share a similar husk. I did catch that. That's the first thing I was probably- Did catch that... you should probably know about that.
7:46
Uh, and the, the other thing, I'm looking at- Square, square is a shape, Gil. [laughs] Square is a shape. Uh, first five records for the entire season, for those who might be curious, Toronto's 22, 20 and 7.
7:56
Detroit's 17, 22, and 11. By the way, because I'm, because I have this Guardians bet, I'm well aware of teams' full game records in the month of May. The Tigers- Yeah... the, they're 6 and 14 this month.
8:10
They have not been good. The Mets are also 6 and 14. The only team worse than the Tigers and Mets in the month of May has been the Cincinnati Reds, 4 and 16. Oh. So, uh, first five bet on the Blue Jays for Lagasse.
8:23
You also have another first five bet. Yeah, although I'd like to just expand and touch on what you're saying. Please. Bullpen stats matter, people. Save yourself the aggravation and the money.
8:31
The Tigers are a perfect example. If you want to bet on the Tigers, you bet on Jack Flaherty for the first five innings. Why are the Tigers so bad? Last 42 and two-thirds, Gil. Bullpen has a 7 ERA. 7.
8:45
Y- y- you can't be giving up one and a quarter runs every time you're out there, right? It's just unsustainable, so- Well, this was-...
8:50
there's a way to get exposed to these teams Yeah, th- this was the point that, uh, Borchardt and I, we did our, uh, Q1 podcast of a, in the Major League Baseball season.
8:56
This was the point we were making about the White Sox. White Sox are the worst team in baseball. Yeah. But in first fives, they're 18, 25, and 8. Not good, but because they're dogs in so many of those, they are...
9:11
At the time, they were a top 10 team in first fives. They're just outside of the top 10 right now. So you're right, there's different ways to play these teams. Garrett Crochet is another perfect example.
9:19
The market despises these bad teams. They, a lot of people make their bets based on the jersey, more or less. You could give me Garrett Crochet up against just about anybody, especially with the odds we're getting.
9:31
Sometimes you get positive odds for Crochet, Gil, through five innings. You walk away with a tie. This guy's been absolutely unhittable.
9:36
So, you know, a lot of times there's different ways to skin the cat without scratching his bottom, as my grandfather used to say. All right, the second play. Hot and heavy. Here it comes.
9:44
Another F5, another one near even money. I saw a minus 110, but once I post my plays on Substack, Gil, you know the market starts to shake a little bit. Give me the Royals.
9:53
They're on the road, F5 against the flat fish from Florida, those pesky Rays. You got Seth Lugo on the bump. One, I wanna give a quick hat tip to the Royals themselves, people, remember.
10:04
Yes, you know, we have such a hairy, fine eyeball on these games in small samples. We wanna be thinking on the macro sometimes, right? Jump out of the trenches into the zeppelin and get the wider broad view.
10:14
Kansas City Royals doing a lot of good work with turning other people's trash to treasure. Cole Ragans was on the Rangers as like a weird mixed usage guy. He's now an ace for the Royals.
10:25
Seth Lugo was a weird mixed usage guy for the Mets. He's now an ace for the Royals. 1.79 ERA for Lugo, the sub 9 WHIP, OPS at 600. There's not anything he's not doing wrong. I especially love the control.
10:37
5% walk rate, he's getting ahead, limiting fouls, winning in the zone, keeping it down. Just about everything you could ask for. Tampa offense has also been pretty putrid against righty at home, a bottom five team.
10:49
They're just striking out way too often. 26% K. That's the last 435 plate appearance against righties. Not nothing. Royals have also hit lefties all year.
10:58
I think they're gonna be facing it, I saw a mixed bag on the books, between Armstrong, maybe Tyler Alexander. They're both kind of, I wouldn't call them junk balling lefties, but let's call them junk balling lefties.
11:08
Royals have hit lefties well all year. You know, Bobby Witt, Nelson Velazquez, Sal Perez, those boys should get us at least the run or two we need against the Rays. Again, they've just been kind of flaccid on offense.
11:20
So Toronto F5 and KC F5. I think we get them both. Skinning the cat without scratching the bottom. Johnny Lagasse. I didn't hear anything. Miss you, Gil. I didn't hear anything after that, John. Miss you guys. Thank you.
11:29
Miss you too, by the way, again. [laughs] Uh, Toronto, he's on Toronto first five against Detroit, and he's on Kansas City first five against the Tampa Bay Rays. John Lagasse, everybody. @JohnLagasa. My boy. Lagasa.
11:40
Lagheza, if you wanna do it phonetically on Twitter. [laughs] Let's do that hockey. Jonathan Davis next right here on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:47
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Back on The Numbers Game, a show presented by ZYN nicotine pouches, America's number one nicotine pouch. Find out more at zyn.com It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin.
12:10
Oh, by the way, check out our website as well, vsin.com. Should always mention that. Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides.
12:17
Kelly, I don't know if you know this, but on the, uh, vsin.com homepage today- Oh, what's there? A WNBA Best Bets with Tyler Shoemaker. Okay. Uh, Johnny Lazarus on the NHL, Zachary Cohen's all over the French Open.
12:29
French Open begins on Sunday. Cannot wait. Adam Burke with Baseball Daily, Steve Makinen with the top splits and trends in the NBA playoffs. All of that, vsin.com. Check it out.
12:40
Um, I don't know if you, uh, watched the, uh, the Stars and the Oilers last night. Game one of the Western Conference Finals in the NHL, um, Oilers went up two to nothing.
12:49
Tyler Seguin scored two goals, one with about 3:30 left in, uh, the third period to, uh, eventually force overtime, and they go to overtime. The first overtime was pretty unbelievable.
13:00
It was a double minor all on Connor McDavid, so four-minute penalty. The Oilers are able to kill it off, and then later in the first overtime, Connor McDavid has a point-blank...
13:13
Connor McDavid, best player in hockey, right?
13:15
Point-blank shot to get it by Ottinger into the, uh, into the net, and Hank Lundqvist did a great explanation of this afterwards, but he thinks, like, McDavid, like, hesitated for, like, a second, a second, or a second and a half, and Lundqvist, of course, g- uh, you know, Hall of Fame goalie, he said it's because he thought that Ottinger's stick was still airborne.
13:39
And so McDavid, the instinct for players is to wait for the stick to come down to the ice and then go over the stick- Right... instead. Which makes sense. I- yeah, I guess 'cause that's a human instinct. Instinct.
13:49
Gravity. What's that? Gravity. Stick's coming down. Well, yes, but then you go over. But you gotta go [laughs] Okay, maybe you should interject.
13:55
[laughs] Um, and then, uh, yeah, so basically when the stick came down, it was too late and it immediately made contact, and it was an unbelievable save.
14:05
The, the end of the story is, then it go to a second overtime, and literally in the first minute, Connor McDavid makes amends, redirects, Oilers win. It was awesome. I saw most- Yeah... of the overtime.
14:15
I, I missed the game-tying goal, though, i- in the third period. Seguin, yeah. That, that was, that was the part... And if you... The, the, the Stanley Cup playoffs are so good and it- They're so good...
14:23
it, it infuriates me, though, when you miss a goal, where I'm like, "Wait, what happened? What happened?" Well, the thing is- Now we're in overtime all of a sudden...
14:29
especially juxtaposed, we, you and I went the whole first segment talking about what were we watching in the Eastern- Yeah... Conference Finals in the NBA last night.
14:35
Uh, to help us along with hockey, Jonathan Davis is kind enough to, uh, hang out with us. He's the host of Ice Cap on Sirius XM NHL, host of Show Me the Money, a hockey betting podcast.
14:44
You can follow him on Twitter @WestCoastHKY. That's a cool way they say hockey, uh, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Jonathan, how you doing, man? Good. Well, that's the Canadian spelling of hockey.
14:54
Didn't you know that? HKY, that's right. Of co- of course, yes. [laughs] The branding, yes. [laughs] Um, so this is the third consecutive home game one that the Stars have lost, correct?
15:06
Obviously, it, it hasn't ultimately been a problem for them in the first two rounds. Do you think it might be here?
15:13
Well, it's not only the third consecutive home game, Gil, it's the seventh consecutive game one that they've lost. They've lost five of the last six games that have gone to overtime in game one.
15:24
Um, but I don't think it's problematic. I, I... Look, I thought this was gonna be a six-game series, um, at, at minimum, and for me, I don't care how you get there and, and I just...
15:34
You know, the more you talk to players, momentum doesn't go from game to game, it goes from shift to shift. So if you're, if you're still believing in Dallas, I would be grabbing the series price right now- Yeah...
15:46
at Dallas at plus 160. That was what I was gonna ask you. We, uh, we're showing plus 165 over at DraftKings. Always shop around for these, but the Stars down one-nothing. Yeah.
15:54
Um, but I'll say it again, I've said it a million times, but I give credit to, uh, stats by Lopez.
15:59
You know, we, we're more familiar in this country, um, well, I mean, it's a bigger fan base for the NBA in best-of-sevens, and we know how that goes.
16:07
Um, 80% of favorites get through the NBA p- uh, NBA best-of-seven series, much of that because the first round is so top-heavy. For 80% of favorites to get through in hockey, uh, you'd have to play a best of 51.
16:23
That was the old stats- [laughs]... by Lopez stat. Like, it's, there, there's the randomness of that.
16:27
So even though some hockey handicappers can show you that home ice matters, the point is, is that there is a random nature to it.
16:35
And so I guess I can't say, at some point, if the Stars keep going down one-nothing, you, you play with fire too much, it's, it's gonna burn you, but kinda not, I guess, here. Well, look, I...
16:46
First off, come playoff time, to me, I throw home ice out the window. Yeah. Because in the regular season, guys, it matters.
16:51
Teams, you're at home, you're getting a team on a back-to-back, you're getting on a team that's playing three games in four nights on the road. Come playoff time, we're both, both teams are on the same schedule.
17:01
So, you know, no advantage anymore to me, and I, and I'm not one that buys last change in hockey as, is a big advantage, because teams right now are just far better constructed and far more talented.
17:12
So I don't really think it's a big deal. I, I think Dallas, you know, I love Dallas at plus money on the road when this series shifts to Edmonton. So I don't really think it, it's much of a factor.
17:22
But look, you know, Dallas found themselves down two-nothing to Vegas in round one and, you know, rallied and, a- a- and won that series.
17:29
So, you know, it wasn't like they played a bad game i- i- i- in game number one, but they just, you know, they were on- Yeah... the wrong end of a bad bounce. That's absolutely right.
17:38
Um, okay, so you would advocate the Stars here at the adjusted series price, plus 165 is what we're showing at DraftKings. Uh, okay, let's go to tonight.
17:45
Now, the game one in the Eastern Conference Finals between the Panthers and the Rangers, not nearly as exciting of a game as, uh, that one last night.
17:52
Panthers won that first game three to nothing against the Rangers, take a one to nothing lead. Um, tonight, Rangers the slightest of favorites, and I mean slightest, I mean a couple pennies.
18:02
Really, it's a coin flip tonight. In game two, the Panthers are the series favorite. They're a $3 favorite right now on the adjusted price. You have several plays, a few plays in this game, starting with the side.
18:14
Who do you like? Y- well, I like the Rangers. One, you know, let's take the zigzag approach that many like to talk about in the NBA.
18:20
And, you know, look, uh- You know, Paul Maurice, the Florida Panthers coach, talked about the fact that, you know, he expects the Rangers' best game tonight in the series. They got pushed around in game one.
18:30
Uh, and here's the other thing with Florida, guys, uh, you know, they were one of the, they were the best road team in the regular season in the NHL.
18:38
Now, the Rangers are just a slight favorite, but the Florida Panthers were only three and nine as a road dog. I had them at 22 and six as a road favorite during the regular season.
18:47
And when I checked the, the bet splits on VSiN before I came on, uh, I saw that Florida was getting 34% bets, but only 18% of the money.
18:55
So there, there lies why we're seeing that line move, that, you know, Florida opened up at about minus 115, now it's now Rangers at minus 112. All right, so you're on the Rangers tonight.
19:06
You also have a play on the total. Yeah, you know, ha, I'm going over five and a half.
19:11
You know, coming in into game one, the over was 18, one and one between these two teams, and that one under hit six years ago, and the one push was on six.
19:22
I, I just, you know, look, the Rangers MO has been, when they win, I think they're 42 and one when they score four goals or more. I know Sergei Bobrovsky has been very good.
19:31
I just think we're gonna get the Rangers' best game. I'm gonna go back to the well one more time with the total going over. With the total going over the five and a half. Okay. And then, uh, a prop bet or two here.
19:43
What do you got? Oh, no, you have a parlay. Ooh. A prop parlay. I do. Wow. We have a parlay because the numbers are very, are, are, are, are very juicy if you play them individually.
19:52
But Vincent Trocheck, uh, over two and a half shots on goal, and Sam Reinhart over two and a half shots on goal.
19:59
You can get that at about, I think it was, like, around minus 120, or maybe it was plus money, I can't, can't remember off the top of my head. But Trocheck's eight of 11 games have gone, he's had at least three shots.
20:08
And for s- for Reinhart, it's 10 of... 11 of 12 games over two and a half shots on goal. So I, I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll play those two guys in a parlay tonight, uh, with the prop play. Okay.
20:19
When we had you on before the finals, you said, uh, you thought Panthers and the Stars would go to the finals. I can't remember who you said you thought would win. Refresh my memory, if you would. I said Dallas.
20:29
You said Dallas. Okay. Um, so maybe you're not the guy for this question, but I, I'm looking at Conn Smythe. Who was your Conn Smythe pick then?
20:37
Well, I mean, for, for Dallas, I would go with their defenseman, Miro Heiskanen. Uh, he's a guy that never leaves the ice. He played over, he's been averaging over 28 minutes a night.
20:46
He is first, uh, in time on ice, uh, with g- who, for players still in the playoffs. He was number two heading into the conference final. The other n- guys in the top 10 are all out. He played over 29 minutes last night.
20:58
He leads the Stars. Uh, I think he s- he still may lead the Stars in points, or maybe he's tied right now.
21:05
On the Florida side, you know, I, I think Sergei Bobrovsky, who I wasn't leaning to earlier, may be the way to go. He, I think, is at nine to one, and I think, so if you like Florida- Yeah...
21:15
um, you're gonna get a better number on Bobrovsky. I like Sasha Barkov, their, their leading scorer, but there is a good n- you know, the, the number is really good on Bobrovsky. That's where I was going with that.
21:25
You, uh, you anticipated the pass. Um, 'cause Bobrovsky- Yeah... right now at DraftKings is actually better than that. He's 11 to one. And, you know, Conn Smythe goes to goalies, um, fairly frequently.
21:36
Vasilevskiy won a few years back, right? Um, so at 11 to one, if you are a Panthers backer, right, you gotta be correlated on these things.
21:43
So if you're a Panthers backer, that just seems like f- for a team that is more democratic, right, um, b- outside of goaltender, that that might be the guy, 11 to one.
21:54
Yeah, the offense has been pretty, pretty much spread out.
21:56
Now, on the Rangers side, you know, really quickly here, guys, Vincent Trocheck was the guy that I grabbed at 30 to one, and if it's Edmonton, you know, it should be Leon Draisaitl for me.
22:06
That, to me, n- no, no question, Leon Draisaitl's the guy to grab for Conn Smythe. All right. Uh, really appreciate it, Jonathan. Enjoy the games. Good luck on all the bets. Thanks for all of those tonight.
22:16
Always a pleasure, guys. Have a great rest of your, your day. You too.
22:19
Jonathan Davis, once again, on the Rangers, on the over tonight, and on the Sam Reinhart, Vincent Trocheck, uh, parlay, both over two and a half socks, Kelly. You love socks. The sock parlay, baby. Let's go.
22:31
By the way, I failed to mention on that four-minute, uh, double minor, they, they hit two posts, the, uh, Stars last night. [laughs] Not shots on goal, 'cause they hit the posts.
22:50
That's right. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. For a limited time only, we're offering our annual subscription at an unbeatable price.
22:58
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23:23
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23:40
[laughs] It just caught you by surprise. It did, yeah. How many times have we read this? That's VSiN.com/subscribe. Kelly was going down a Wheel of Fortune rabbit hole, so he just noticed it was 199.
23:51
Just trying to bring renewed eth- enthusiasm every time we do it, okay? Kelly, remember, uh, it's, This Is The Best is the name of that puzzle. This Is The Best, solve that puzzle. [laughs] So great.
24:01
Pat Sa- Pat Sajak's reaction was great. He goes, "Uh, no." [laughs] I love that there's one of those, like, every six months too. Right, right.
24:09
Like, eh, they are, they are pretty frequent you get an entertaining one like that. Uh, we get tweets @BeatingTheBook. Always appreciate the, uh, the feedback. This is, uh... Oh, listen to this.
24:20
Uh, Bill Hooker, "Djokovic is getting waxed by Mahac." And then Sean Sheehan updates it, "Novak just lost. Does that change your view on Roland Garros?"
24:29
[clears throat] By the way, uh, Tomas Mahac in the, uh, semifinals in Geneva just beat Novak Djokovic six-four, love-six, six-one.
24:38
Took him down in the, uh, third set there Wow To answer your question, uh, Sean, this is why I have the three, right? I have Carlitos, I have Novak, and Ruud tied in with Iga.
24:49
Ruud happens to be in the same quarter by luck of the draw, literally, as Djokovic. And so I have Ruud at 20/1 with Iga to win this. So I mean, to answer your question directly, does it change my view on him? Slightly.
25:05
I mean, it has to. I- it's, 'cause it's one of these things with him where he's been s- he's not a tennis great, he's a tennis god. Like, it is hard to really express what he is in this sport.
25:17
As I've said many times, Novak Djokovic, Rafael, uh, Nadal, and, and, uh, Roger Federer are better at tennis than any of us are at anything.
25:25
So when you see this happen to a player who is getting up in age, half of your brain is like, "Oh, man, look, he lost." And remember, he lost to Tabilo. It could be ending. Like, that could be the dominance, it's over.
25:38
Um, you know? And then the other half, pardon me, the other half of your brain is, it's Novak Djokovic, I don't know if he just shows up- Yeah... and kills everybody. Yeah.
25:46
A- m- much, much like our upcoming guest, uh- Yes... sa- says about other sports, if you're gonna give me 3/1 on Novak Djokovic at the French Open- [laughs]... I'm, I'm still gonna bet it. I'm still betting it.
25:56
Yeah, as a matter of fact, let's bring in Jason Weingarten from Under a Cloud of Smoke at, at Spreadapedia, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, because, uh, Jason makes all kinds of bets, and he has all kinds of reasoning for all kinds of bets.
26:06
Jason, would you like to share with us your latest?
26:10
Yeah, so we were just talking about this right before, uh, or during the commercial break, but, uh, a good friend of mine, uh, a, a person who's been on gambling Twitter for, uh, you know, a very long time, 10 years, saw him tweeting about, uh, USA cricket under 20, uh, under 20 cricket, the Team USA versus Bangladesh.
26:29
And he was saying 3/1 was a, a really big price on Team USA. And I looked at it and I'm like, "Yeah, sure, Team USA is 3/1 against Bangladesh? I'll bet that. What are we betting, cricket?
26:41
I'll bet Team USA 3/1, uh, against, uh, against Bangladesh in anything." [laughs] You know? I don't, I don't care what sport we're playing. [laughs] Anything. But 3/1, come on. Team USA in anything?
26:54
What, what are we doing here? There's a lot of patriotism on this show today. What was the result? What happened? They won. I don't know the score.
27:00
I've actually, I've only bet cricket a couple times and it's, it's the weirdest thing to bet for me because I can't tell what's going on and who's winning.
27:08
[laughs] Um, I, I just look, I look at the live odds- Can't even track the score, yeah... and I'm like, you just track the live odds and you're like, "Okay," like, "It's going down on the team I bet.
27:17
That's good," you know? Or you know, I bet at 3/1, they're now 4/1. That's, that's bad. Um, you know, so, so I, I have no idea what's going on with cricket. Don't, uh, don't pretend like I do.
27:28
Well, and the final scores are always, like, 133 to 102 or something, right? Over the, over the course of four days- [laughs]... USA took down Bangladesh. I have no idea.
27:36
No, that, that's a d- there's like day, there's two types of cricket. There, there's- Oh... cricket that takes a, a really long time, there's the day cricket, and then there's crickets that I feed my pet frogs.
27:46
Sure, we knew that. [laughs] I was just testing you, Jason. [laughs] By the way, do you know who, you know Dan Weston, my tennis guy, or was, we know him as our tennis guy, Dan Weston is a massive cricket analytics guy.
28:00
I gotta introduce... Well, Jason's not even interested in this, so I'm [laughs] not gonna introduce- [laughs] But it's like, but if you were, if you were really serious about it, he's the guy.
28:08
Like, he can't do the Tennis Pod anymore that we do because he's so wrapped up in cricket to the point that actual cricket, do you call them teams, by the way? They employ him because he's so far into it.
28:19
So if you're ever there, if you're ever- I mean, I mean, I have heard from the, the gambling and sports, uh, sports betting world stuff that cricket especially on the, uh, the Asian subcontinent, India, is a, a massive betting market.
28:32
Um, you know, just massive, massive betting market. You probably can't even comprehend the size of it. That's your pro- But it's so- I was gonna say, that's your pro tip of the day.
28:40
USA versus Bangladesh in anything at 3/1, bet it. Final score yesterday was 144/6- [laughs]... for the US against 138. So I, yeah. No slash on the 138? No slash on the 138. You got that, Jason? It's close, I think.
28:56
I, I, I still don't know what that means, but sounds great. Me either. [laughs] I, I, uh... [laughs] Is the six the margin? I don't know. Oh, yes, that is what it is. Yeah, it says underneath it. Oh, thank you very much.
29:07
Look at you. Wow. Look at me. Look at the big brain on Gil. I got a big brain on me. Uh, what else, uh, more conventionally are you betting, Jason? Any baseball? Baseball today, yeah, I got the Cubs -149.
29:18
Uh, Miles Mikolas going for the Cardinals. He's kind of one of those guys I feel like I'm gonna be betting against him every, every start now till he, uh, he retires. But, uh, yeah, I don't like him at all.
29:30
Uh, Imanaga, what, no, nobody, I, I wish we had been, you know, on him more before the season, but you see the numbers he's putting up? Oh. That's, uh- It's sick... pretty impressive.
29:40
Well, it's sick because when I was doing the Ranger Suárez thing the other day where it's like, "Oh, he's the first pitcher since Juan Marichal to have 10 starts where you go nine and O and your ERA is below 1.50," and then you look, is there anyone better than Suárez?
29:51
And there's, there's Imanaga. I- Imanaga's just sitting there. He's like, "Yeah, I'm, I'm below one."
29:57
Yeah, I hate to say it, but you got the, the four pitchers at the top of the NL Rookie of the Year market, and one of them might win.
30:03
It might be the year, uh, might be the year a pitcher finally wins, which gonna just kinda be more insulting to Spencer Strider that, that he didn't win with the season he put up. But, uh, might be a pitcher this year.
30:15
Might be a pitcher for MVP, you're saying? No, no, for Rookie of the Year. Oh, for Rookie of the Year. Uh, it, it- Oh, gotcha... usually skews heavily towards position players. Right.
30:23
But you got the four pitchers in the NL. I don't know who it's gonna be, but might be one of them. Might be one of them. Again, Shota Imanaga's ERA currently 0.84. I'm told that's good. It's pretty good.
30:36
I'm told that's good. Um, okay. So, uh, repeat the bet again. What is the bet today? Uh, Cubs, Cubs minus 149 And- I think probably good time to play it now... anything else? Yeah, I got the Padres tonight.
30:49
Layed, uh, minus 101 with Padres at home versus, uh, Carlos Rodon and the Yankees. Uh, not a huge fan of Rodon right now.
30:58
And there's another guy, Yu Darvish, putting up some, some pretty, uh, pretty nice numbers for, you know, a guy we haven't heard much from lately.
31:05
Yeah, if I asked you right now, 'cause Padres are 27 and 26, Giants are 25 and 26, Diamondbacks 24 and 26. If I say to you one of the, one of the NL wild cards, if not two, comes from there, who are they?
31:22
Padres, for sure. Padres for sure, yeah. Um, they, they actually have, I think, the best road record in baseball, if I'm, if I'm not mistaken. I was looking at this yesterday.
31:32
Um, they also have the worst home record in baseball, which is sort of unusual. I don't, I don't know how, how that happened.
31:38
Probably just variance, but I looked at the Padres a little deeper 'cause, 'cause I was a little curious about this yesterday, and I was like, "Wow, yeah, they're actually a surprisingly decent team."
31:47
You, you would expect the year after getting rid of Juan Soto, um, there'd be a precipitous drop-off, but it's, it's only been, you know, slight, if, if at all.
31:57
Especially when you look at what they're getting out of Jurickson Profar, um, you know, a guy that if you went back, like, 10 years probably wouldn't be surprising.
32:05
If you remembered his performance the last four or five years, I, I think it's, it's pretty shocking what they're getting out of Profar, um, you know, for the price. Yeah, they, they don't have the worst home record.
32:16
There are other teams that have worse records. And by the way, away I think they have the third best away record.
32:22
The Yankees are 17 and 9, the Padres are 17 and 10, and then the Phillies, who I said earlier on the show, they don't, they just don't lose baseball games anymore.
32:29
They're 15 and 6, so from a, uh, win percentage standpoint on the road. Like, the Phillies are just unbelievable. 17 and 3 in May. They're 37 and 14. Give me all the teams that win 100 games right now, Jason.
32:42
Uh, well, Phillies right now, if, if you just keep, if they keep up what they're doing, I think they're, they're gonna probably be the best, the best team in baseball that's not the Dodgers.
32:52
Um, Dodgers, I think, hit the 100 game mark. I don't know how far they go over it. Uh, besides that, I don't know, maybe one or two of the Yankees and the, uh, Orioles.
33:02
But, uh, you know, I'm more confident in the Dodgers than the Phillies right now. How many 100 game losers do we have? Oh man, I don't know.
33:11
I, I, I don't wanna, I don't wanna think it's gonna be more than two or three, but it's not looking good. I could easily... You know, White Sox, Rockies, uh, A's probably get us three. Yeah, I think that sounds right.
33:23
Jason, um, congratulations on your big three to one cricket win. Mazel tov. We were so wrong on the score, by the way. Oh, we were. [laughs] Okay. We were. [laughs] Okay. Well, we'll- Don't thank me.
33:32
Thank, thank my friend NumberRunner. He's old OG from gambling Twitter. Have a good weekend, guys. You too. At Spreadapedia. We'll come back. Uh, take a look at some NBA curious votes next.
33:49
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. We are so close to crowning an NBA champ, and with the action heating up on the court, it's even hotter.
33:56
DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA. New to DraftKings? Listen up. New customers can get a no sweat bet up to 1,500 bucks.
34:05
Just deposit at least five bucks and get a bonus bet back equal to your first bet if it doesn't hit. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now and use code VSin. The crown is yours. Gil Alexander, Kelly Billin.
34:18
Um, who's back behind the, uh, the, uh, closet today? We should thank everybody who is always on the show. Man, we got a full crew back there. We got Chris. We've got Matt. We've got Dakota.
34:28
We've got Fenhouse, who's new. We got a full crew. We would do it more, but it's d- it seems like it's different every day now, huh? We do, yes. Yeah. We have a rotating, rotating, uh, cast of characters.
34:36
Well, thank you to everybody that makes this show happen. Yeah, Matt's directing every day for us, so five deep. Kelly Billin is just the pretty face on TV. M- Matt Hicks, who, uh, who did, uh...
34:44
I, I forgot to bring this up earlier and I'm very mad about it now. Um, a driver in the Indy 500 this weekend, Sting Ray Robb. Actual name, Sting Ray Robb. His parents named him Sting Ray? Apparently. Okay.
34:59
Wikipedia didn't argue back, so yeah. Well, you're, you're totally betting on him. [laughs] There is... What's the bet? He's matched up with, uh, oh, I can't say this name. Pietro Fittipaldi. Oh God, here we go.
35:11
Sting Ray Robb. I, I would like on Monday, you should just go through all the WTA matches in the French Open that day. I, I will, man.
35:17
Uh, this is by the way, uh, from Michael Montesano, who won the, uh, Circa Booby Prize first year of Circa Millions. He said, this is a quote from Jason Weingarten. Jason was on the Unabated podcast yesterday.
35:27
Um, that's, uh, Captain Jack and Rufus's outfit over there on, on Unabated. Mm-hmm. I think, uh, Viola does that podcast. Yeah. He says, uh, this is j- a quote from Jason, "I don't bet on players with neck tattoos."
35:37
[laughs] He was referring to Luis Hill of the Yankees, an AL Rookie of the Year. Um, [laughs] and Montesano has Luis Hill at, uh, 22 to 1, and he's like, "Well, I guess that's a loser for me."
35:48
[laughs] Jason has all kinds of rules.
35:51
Um, so yesterday, uh, we, we started the show obviously talking about the Pacers and the Celtics and just what a weird game that was from just the broadcast perspective yesterday, and how the, the Pacers just punted early in that game, and no one seemed to mention it.
36:03
Uh, Jaylen Brown ended up with 40, and part of the speculation today in sports media in the, in the mainstream is, well, he was just upset and angry that he didn't make the All-NBA team, and so he vomited out 40 points.
36:15
You know how that goes. But, um, I wanna give credit here to Midrange News. They did this whole breakdown of, like, strange NBA votes this year and who made the votes.
36:26
I, I th- Oh, are we get- we getting to the DeMonis Sabonis one? I thought you'd find this curious, uh, as an NBA hardo that you are.
36:32
He goes, "Everybody already knows about, uh, Ignacio Garcia voting-" Sabonis everything. DeMonis Sabonis, fourth in MVP, All-NBA first team, third in Defensive Player of the Year, and All-Defensive first team. Sure.
36:43
Yeah, sure Okay. Sure So here's some others you might find interesting. You ready for this? That was the one everybody was waiting for. It was like, "Who keeps putting Domantas Sabonis up here on everything?
36:53
E- especially defensively." Your answer is Ignacio Garcia. Um- I actually don't hate, like, the MVP vote, I don't hate. Like, remember we, we did- Oh, I-... my MVP power rankings at one point.
37:02
He was up there, yeah I thought he should be in the top 10 of MVP, for sure. But, like, you're u- you're using the... What, what's one of the defensive things we always get angry about?
37:09
It's when they count up rebounds, like, that's a, that's an o- the a catch-all stat for, [laughs] for defensive play, and that's the only thing you can give Domantas Sabonis.
37:19
Stan Van Gundy, we're gonna name names- Mm-hmm... was the only voter to not vote Chet Holmgren second in Rookie of the Year. Yep, can't do it. He went with Brandon Miller. Michael Wilbon, Stephen A.
37:30
Smith, um, Kevin Pelton, Mike Greenberg, they all voted Brandon Podziemski of the Warriors third for Rookie of the Year. [laughs] Yikes. [laughs] Uh, look, by the way, Podziemski was great, but third? Yeah. Wow.
37:44
Uh, David Aldridge, the only voter to choose Derrick Lively as the third best Rookie of the Year. Like, th- I mean, that's, that's the correct pick. [laughs] That's, that is the correct one in my opinion.
37:55
Rod- I don't think these are too egregious though Let's see if we can find one for you. Yeah. Rod Boone of the Charlotte Observer voted Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the second-best defender in the league.
38:04
Now, for some context- This is a n- this is another one like Sabonis though. You're just counting steals. He led the league in steals. Yeah, because he points out that, you know, versus the Mavericks, he was on P.J.
38:15
Washington or Derrick Jones Jr. 'cause the Thunder didn't want him to be on Kyrie or Luka. Right, yeah. He voted him second.
38:20
He's a great defe- he's a great two-way player, but, like, yes, he has one attribute that leads to stat, a, a specific stat that jumps out, and it is steals.
38:28
Richard Jefferson also voted for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander second in Defensive Player of the Year. Uh, this is a Greek voter by the name of Thalis Koutsias.
38:37
Uh, he was the only voter to choose a perimeter player as the best defender this season. He went to, with, uh, he went with Jrue Holiday. Um, I'm okay with that.
38:44
Yeah, the, the, th- that's where all defensive teams and Defensive Player of the Year is getting d- is getting difficult because you wanna go with these shot-blocking bigs so much, and the d- and the perimeter defenders are so important in today's NBA, and it's just, it's very hard to compare the two of these now.
39:01
So the reason I'm going through these is 'cause I'm just trying to make the point, we bet on these things. Yeah, we [laughs] And so just give me a couple more here.
39:09
And, like, for all the arguments we get heated about, right? Yes. Gil, it's where it's we all get heated because it's our opinion, and we all gotta keep in mind our opinion doesn't matter at all- Oh, yeah...
39:18
'cause you're trying to figure out what these people are thinking. Handicapping the voters, as I've said many times. So this guy, Bennett Durando. Bennett Durando, representing the Denver Post.
39:28
Did you see that Grayson Allen got a point for Most Improved Player? He, uh, this guy, uh, Bennett Durando, had Grayson Allen third for Most Improved Player. Ah, that got Kelly. [laughs] Kelly's about to blow.
39:39
I did not see this one. Just look at his- I did not see this one... close-up on Kelly. What? Yeah, he had Grayson Allen third for Most Improved Player. Duncan Robinson received a vote for third in Most Improved Player.
39:48
That came from Signals' Jonathan Mitchell Fuentes. Duncan Robinson got third? Oh, my God. Um, let me know when you're bored. This'll be the last couple. I mean, I'm not, but okay. [laughs] These are the last couple.
40:01
Gary Washburn, Ramona Shelburne, and Kendrick Perkins. When does the suit end and Perk begin? [laughs] Were the three voters to rate Brunson's impact the most. They gave Brunson his three second-placed MVP votes.
40:15
I, I don't, I don't hate that. I think Br- I think Brunson is the, was the toughest guy to figure out where he should land in MVP, and I, I don't really have a problem if you put him anywhere from two to seven.
40:27
All right, last one. Shams, [clears throat] Shams Charania, Ignacio Garcia, who we mentioned earlier- [laughs]... was the Domantas Sabonis guy. Everybody was waiting for that one.
40:36
And Perk left Giannis off their MVP ballot. Instead, they opted for Anthony Edwards, giving him the fifth spot, whilst Michael- Yeah...
40:44
Wilbon, as we know, remember, that was the first thing I said when I saw Ant was second, I was like, "That's Wilbon." He gave him second place. [laughs] 'Cause we had brought it up the day before, yeah. Yeah.
40:52
One person had him third, and another, Dennis Scott, had him fourth. I'll res- I, a little respect for Wilbon, though. Like, he said it. Like, you know, he said it- Yeah... wrote, wrote it in.
41:00
Like, stood by what he, uh, what he put down there. Yeah. Giannis should've been in your top five. Criminal if Giannis wasn't in your top five this year. Of all those, which is the one that bothers you the most?
41:10
I think the... I mean, I'd have to go back and check some numbers, but Grayson Allen being third in, in Most Improved s- uh, that, I think that one's up there. Yeah. Yeah.
41:20
All the Sabonis one though, like, everybody was like, "This is, this is clearly one person.
41:24
Like, this has gotta be one person that keeps doing this with every award," 'cause it was, you're talking multiple different awards. [laughs] Like he's Bar- like he's Barry Lamar Bonds. Right, yeah.
41:33
You gotta put him in everything. [laughs] I mean, like, I get it. Sacramento, like, I get it. You don't g- you don't get the respect you deserve. You don't get, as a, probably as a city, as, as the franchise, for sure.
41:43
Maybe- Sabonis has been awesome, but like- Maybe he's just a real fan of double doubles. I mean, yeah, he clearly was. Yeah. That means Defensive Player of the Year. Did you know that? He goes, "That's me."
41:52
Double doubles. He's like, "It's good for Defensive [laughs] Player of the Year, Most Improved, everything they voted for." All right, tonight, Game 2, Mavericks-T-Wolves. Mavs up one to nothing in this series.
42:02
T-Wolves are favored by five. Total's 207. What do you... I mean, you're a Mavericks guy. Let's just say that again. You've got Mavericks futures.
42:09
Do you want me to se- I'm gonna separate my brain for, from, from this conversation right now. Yes, let's take your brain out of that- My ticket's away... out of that Oz Perelman- Yes...
42:17
uh, y- you know, inability to- Uncrackable safe... uncrackable safe that it is, yes. I would have hammered Timberwolves four and a half when this opened.
42:26
Oh, you would've gone the other way, 'cause you were on the Mavericks Game 1. Yes. Oh. Did you hammer it? At op- at open at four and a half I w- I, I would've bet Minnesota, but I am... I, I shouldn't say hammer.
42:36
I would've bet it. I would've bet it. Um, but I think after Game 1, I think you and I broke it down pretty well.
42:40
There's w- both teams can sit there going into this game tonight and say, "We got things that we know we can be better at- Yes... going in."
42:47
So Minnesota, I think's got more of those, but man, I, I, like, everybody said, a- and I agree with this, everybody said, "Okay, if Dallas wins this series, it's gonna be because Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic, Doncic look like the two best players in the series."
43:02
I don't think that it's unreasonable to expect that to continue. I d- I really don't. They're going to have big games, but them only making six threes, that's not gonna happen, especially when they're going to adjust.
43:13
Minnesota's gonna adjust to some of the pick and roll stuff. You're going to see some of those corner threes that were open the Oklahoma City series are gonna open back up, I would bet, tonight.
43:22
Um, you're not gonna have the three-pointers coming from such hi- uh, higher up on the arc.
43:27
Uh, for Minnesota though, like, I mean, I c- I, I don't think they brought it up enough on the broadcast or afterward where Anthony Edwards was exhausted and disappeared in the second half of that game.
43:37
I brought it up purposely yesterday. Yeah, you did. I just gasped. And I'm g- I'm glad we keep talking about it 'cause it is, he'll be back. He'll bounce back. I don't know if that was seven games with Denver, Gil.
43:46
I don't know if it was first half where he was, he probably came out and put a little too much effort into guarding Kyrie Irving and didn't realize how exhausted he was gonna get.
43:54
Uh, but I mean, he basically played himself out of the game last time. I don't expect that con- uh, to continue. Karl-Anthony Towns has been too good this postseason for him to be, have as bad of a game as he did Game 1.
44:05
So I would ex- I would, I would expect, uh, Minnesota to look pretty sharp tonight. Absolutely nothing would surprise me tonight.
44:12
And as far as the Pacers and the Celtics, it's just a information race to see if you can get Halliburton news and get to a book before they- Yeah... adjust. What a shame. What a, absolutely, what a shame.
44:23
If he is unable to go. We'll see. We've done all we can do. Gojo and Golic next on the radio side. Best Bets next on the pictures side. It's VSiN, the sports betting network
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