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May 25, 2026
A Numbers Game | May 25, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | May 25, 2026 | Hour 1
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47:19
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:17
Good Monday morning to you. Not just any Monday morning, Memorial Day 2026. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, vsin.com. Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM Channel 158. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it.
0:31
Good morning to you, sir. Good morning. How you doing? I'm doing all right. All right. Doing all right. I was out in San Francisco. It was good. Um, beautiful weather. Took in Michael. Finally g- finally went out- Oh...
0:43
to see Michael. How was it? It's g- it has to be great, right? Well, listen, I, I don't know if you know this about me, I was a bit of a Michael freak as a kid. I know everybody was a Michael Jackson fan. I was obsessed.
0:54
And so I was... I, I thought Jaafar Jackson, his nephew, Jermaine's son, was great, and I thought the casting was, they, they, their attention to detail was unbelievable.
1:04
Like, the f- the actor who played Quincy Jones, like, his facial structure was just like Quincy's. Same with a couple of the brothers.
1:11
You know, the dancers who flanked him in the Beat It video were, were attention to detail on that. Like, it was that kind of pedantic detail. I loved it.
1:19
I- I, I was, I was waiting 'cause I knew, I knew you would have details like that- Yeah... that you were analyzing, so I didn't know if that was gonna equate in a, "I loved it," or, "I hated it."
1:28
Well, I l- But they did a good job... I loved it, except for one thing. This is only my second time to a movie theater since the pandemic. [snorts] Can you ex- can you answer this question for me?
1:39
Is it normal to have 30 minutes of previews before the actual show starts? [laughs] Hey, man, that's the in-theater experience. You just haven't been in a while. When did that happen? [laughs] What do you mean?
1:49
When did that start? It's been like that for 30 years. No, it's not. It's terrible. That's not true. It's always terrible.
1:54
It used to b- it used to be three or four previews, okay, a bit of a, you know, 10, maybe 10 minutes after the start time. Yeah. This was 30 minutes.
2:02
What, what, what I would say is what I've noticed has changed in the past, like, 15, 20 years is that, you know, you just get straight up commercials now before you get previews. Yeah. Oh, now it's time. Right?
2:12
Yeah, yeah. We d- that was seven times of that. Like, you get straight up commercials before you get previews. Remember, put your phones away. Yeah, no, I remember the first five times. Anyway, that was my experience.
2:20
Oh, man. On the show today, it is Memorial Day, which means baseball. Daytime, nighttime, all of it, except for there's two games.
2:28
There's t- there's two teams that, or I should say four teams, two potential games that aren't being played, so if you're a Braves fan, a Red Sox fan, a Tigers, or Angels fan, I guess you don't get to play Memorial Day baseball, which is a strange thing.
2:39
So we got 13 day, uh, 13 games. Greg Peterson has his thoughts on all of them today, as does Adam Burke. A little later on the show, Wes Reynolds, golf and the NBA. Did you have Wyndham Clark by any chance, sir? Ugh, no.
2:52
No. No, but I actually did consider him pretty carefully. You know what? I, I- Just so funny... I looked at his name. Yeah. I was like, "I could see Wyndham Clark winning this." Didn't bet it. Didn't bet it. NL Cy Young.
3:01
We're gonna do something today, uh, blind resumes, 'cause this National League Cy Young race is so good, so deep, and when I say deep, uh, the, that kind of puts to bed our Mason Miller.
3:12
As great as Mason Miller is- Mm... part of what had to happen for Mason Miller to win this was everybody else had to kind of be meh. Well, it's the opposite. Everybody else is great. And so we'll go blind resume.
3:23
Danny Higgins had this idea. I have not looked at resumes. We'll try to guess who is who, and from that exercise, we'll try to come up with a bet on this Memorial Day. French Open thoughts.
3:33
Uh, Byron Nelson, it's been a choppy start to the French Open for me after a really good week in the Faccha de tournaments last week. Uh, yesterday lost a little less than a unit to start. Today, the jury's still out.
3:44
We don't know how this is gonna go yet. Um, it'd be nice if Stan Wawrinka came back and won this, though, in his final French Open. Stan. Uh, so I had seven picks for subscribers.
3:55
The first one here, Patrick Kipson, he, uh, two hours before the tournament started, he's like, "Yeah, my abs hurt. I'm not playing," so that one's out. So we're reduced to six plays.
4:04
Luka Van Assche has that effect on people. [laughs] So that was a withdrawal. Uh, Zeynep Sönmez lost in straight. She was a $2 dog to Daria Kasatkina.
4:12
We did hit Susan Bandecchi, though, as a plus 218 dog versus Kristína Bučková, so that got us on the board. Then a really bad performance from Petra Martić. She lost in straights to Eve Lys.
4:24
I don't, I cannot explain what happened there. So Wawrinka and Udvardy are playing. The only one left today is Gael Monfils -115 versus Hugo Gaston in Monfils's last ever French Open.
4:40
Both Wawrinka and Monfils, it's, it's throwback day today on a numbers game with these players. Yeah, for real.
4:44
Both of these guys, this is their final year on tour for both Wawrinka and for Martić, uh, a- and for, uh, Monfils. Pardon me, Wawrinka and Monfils.
4:54
Wawrinka, distinction, the only guy to win multiple Slams during the big three, big four era. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Won the Australian in two, 2014, the French in 2015, and I wanna say the US Open in 2016.
5:07
Three times during the height of Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic, which is incredible. Um, so this is his last. And Gael Monfils, who's easily the most electrifying player on tour for his entire career.
5:19
So Monfils still to come if you wanna jump on some tennis. I, I did. I tailged you on that. I'll be, I'll be in on that. I did a little fun parlay here. Or not fun. It's probably not fun at all.
5:28
It's just the favorites parlays you and I were talking before. Yeah. It's like, I don't know why. I don't do this as, as much anymore. I, I don't know why I slept on it the first couple days also.
5:34
I pulled up the odds screen and I'm just like, "Yeah, like, and Hugo's like -300 against someone I didn't, uh, don't even know." So yeah, I did Francisco Cerúndolo, Coco Gauff, and Victoria Mboko in a money line parlay.
5:46
Should win. -120. Should win. What could go wrong? What could go wrong? [laughs] What could go wrong? The National Basketball Association.
5:54
Yesterday, San Antonio Spurs knot up the best of seven Western Conference Final against the OKC Thunder. Thank God. Two to two. Thank God for, for a couple perspectives. Yeah. One, by the way, 103 to 82.
6:06
I, uh, Kelly and I have not spoken about this, but what I think he's referring to is not only from our bets perspective on the Spurs, or at least those of us who have Spurs bets- But from a content perspective, this could have gotten ugly.
6:16
[laughs] I, I me- I have about three bets that I was prioritizing before content- Yeah... but you're right, yes, absolutely. This week could've gotten real long real quick.
6:26
Oh, 'cause the NBA finals beginning is set in stone on June 3rd. Y- yeah, you know what? I, it's- And it's May 25th. Y- So if it was 3-1 OKC, and it's 3-0 already with the Knicks, that could've been ugly.
6:38
Yo, I fi- I caught that date this morning. I hadn't looked yet, like, of when that start date was. You know what? Doesn't feel as bad, actually, as what it nor- normally is. Now it doesn't.
6:45
Usually it feels like it's, like, 10 days we're waiting. Oh, yeah, now it doesn't. Uh, 103-82 yesterday. Um, Spurs, you know, on, on, in game f- game, uh, three went up 15 to nothing and then got clocked by the Thunder.
7:00
Well, this time they were down eight to seven. They went on a 16 to nothing run, 20- and led 23 to eight and never really looked back. Uh, led 28 to 19 at the end of the first.
7:11
By the way, in that stretch, the highlight you will see most is that 25 to 12 where SGA with the flop of all of his flops- [laughs]... not touched by De'Aaron Fox and just looking like he had a seizure on the court.
7:22
Second quarter, um, actually first quarter, second quarter overlapping that five points on the front side, five points at the back, a 10 to nothing OKC run to cut it 28-24.
7:32
But at 43-38 Spurs, seven to nothing Spurs run to close the half, punctuated by a Wembanyama half quarter. That was awesome. Count it. Wembanyama with 22 at the break. OKC was one of 11 from three in the first half.
7:47
That's kind of all you need to know. 9.1%. Cason Wallace then started the third quarter with a three that was followed by another Spurs seven to nothing run. By this point they're up 16. They'd run it up to 25,
7:58
and it was kinda Katie bar the door from there. There was one seven to nothing OKC run to make it 72 to 54, but I don't think they ever got closer than 18 the rest of the way. Mm-hmm. 103-82 Spurs.
8:09
Uh, SGA 19 on six of 15 shooting in just 31 minutes. He didn't play the whole fourth quarter. Mark Daigneault was like, "Yeah, you just keep, you just keep sitting. We're, we're okay for today." Wembanyama, 33, 8, 5,
8:25
two steals, three blocks in 31 minutes. He also played just 31 minutes. And OKC from behind the arc finished six of 33, 18.2%. Again, kind of all you need to know, the one stat. But Wembanyama was tremendous.
8:40
Um, two to two. It's a de facto best of three now. Yeah, kinda wild 'cause it's like you almost, you almost, like, talk about both the games from, you know, Friday and Sunday, right?
8:50
And it's just, eh, like, it's gonna be a tight, long series, right? Over five and a half games cashes for me, so that was nice. Or will cash for me. But the... You know, how much of the injury's gonna come into play?
9:00
Like, that is- Yeah... it, it's, it's been an issue both these games. I, I mean, I don't know about you.
9:04
We did, we were texting a bit on Friday night, but that was an alarming game, I think, for anybody who had, you know, had any Spurs interest. I was on Spurs for that game, too.
9:13
It was, okay, even with the, eh, the, I think the big takeaway from that was w- even, even with these injuries, the Thunder depth can be so overwhelming, and it just, that's what happened Friday night.
9:24
It, Thunder, everybody, all those guys they can throw at you. Spurs never seemed to have a chance. And then, okay, you turn it on last night [laughs] and Spurs defense steps up, right? Shay's got another off game.
9:35
Wemby finally steps up. It's just been the, the seesawing of the MVPs seemingly between Shay and Wemby and who's gonna have a big game and kinda lead these teams. But, uh, big, big game by Spurs last night.
9:46
You know, we said this, what, about a Cavs game last week where you can, you can overreact, underreact if you want, eh, to, to this result last night. It was really bad shooting numbers. This is really bad.
9:57
But you know what I was just about to say? It, it's really, like, you can analyze NBA games as much as you want. Mm-hmm. But in the, in the game on Saturday, or excuse me, the game on Friday,
10:06
what, what was the, what were the Thunder's percentages? 48.1% from the field, 44.7% from behind the arc. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. That's, that's all it is.
10:15
Again, basketball can be very simple, and people can then sort of say, "Oh, well, this is a good arc defense," or, "It was good this." No, sometimes the shots just go in and the shots don't go in. Right, right.
10:24
No, I think the big, the big positive for, you know, any Spurs backers out there- Yeah... were the d- the defensive intensity forcing 20 turnovers last night and turning that into points, right?
10:34
Like, I think they win, they would've won that game even if you got an average shooting performance out of the Thunder.
10:38
But I, n- it's just, for me it's been injuries this whole, uh, this whole series, and big questions heading into the next game.
10:44
And I think, Gil, as we head into the next game, it's okay, what's the deal with, what's the deal with Jalen Williams? What's the deal with AJ Mitchell?
10:51
Because you sure did look different with only kinda one true ball handler out there with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and being able to be attacked. And look, I thought De'Aaron Fox looked okay last night. He had 10 rebounds.
11:03
And he, and really I would say Harper did not look good on Friday. He did not look good at all on Friday. Even though he played. Even though he played. I still don't know that he... What did he finish with last night?
11:11
He still didn't really- Yeah... jump out to me. No. Seven points, two of four shooting, only 21 minutes. But at least, at least those two guys are playing through it. Right.
11:18
And right now with, with, uh, Jalen Williams and AJ Mitchell, we don't know their status for game five, which is tomorrow night.
11:25
Remember, it's game five tomorrow, game six on Thursday, and if necessary, game seven on Saturday. Yeah. Saturday, game seven. Clear your plans if that happens.
11:37
And then there's the other side, the Knicks and the Cavs, which is tonight a potential closeout for the Knicks in game four in Cleveland tonight. How do you, uh, attack this one? We'll talk about that on the other side.
11:50
And oh man, the Vegas Golden Knights, they're killing your hockey bet. Yours, Kelly Hiller. Next on the Numbers Game with VSiN, the sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge.
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13:56
[rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. The clock is ticking on one of the best VSiN Pro offers of the year. This is your final week to get a full year of VSiN Pro. Normally $240,
14:14
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Offer expires after May 31st, though, so don't wait. Head to vsin.com/subscribe. Use promo code PRO. That's V-S-I-N.com slash subscribe. We get tweets at Beat of the Book even on this fine Memorial Day.
14:51
Uh, this is from, let's see, Grayson Rossi. "Interesting trend I've been on, uh, Chet under points, rebounds, assists. He's never gone over 24 in any game him and Wemby have played.
15:03
It started at 24 Game 1, 23 in, uh, Game 4 last night. Set for 22 and a half for Game 5. Book's catching on, but it's nine and O to the under regular and postseason." Mm-hmm. Thank you for that, Grayson Rossi.
15:18
Uh, T-Pars too. "Bandecchi gets home this morning. Nice underdog to start the day." Thank you, Gil. Yeah, trying to get, uh, either Varinka or, uh, Udvardy home here as well.
15:28
Monfils still to come, but thank you for the kind note. Uh, this is from No Emu Doug. "My multiple AVS," oh, AVS, it's in caps.
15:36
"My multiple Avs futures," is what he's trying to say, "and Conn Smythe bet are dying as we speak. I can accept that a better team is beating my bets. My NBA MVP losses, though, have been in rip-offs." By contrast, yeah.
15:49
The Vegas Golden Knights, can we just stop there for a second? Under John Tortorella now- Incredible... they are, they are 18, four, and one.
15:58
18, four, and one since he took over with eight games left in the regular season. Last night, Vegas tr- uh, they fell down to Colorado three to nothing at the end of the first period. Three to nothing.
16:11
What were the, what was the price on the Golden Knights down three to nothing? Does anybody know? I have no idea. Golden Knights- 17 to one... Golden Knights storm back, win it five to three last night. Five to three.
16:22
That's the first time all season the Avalanche have lost consecutive games in which they've had the lead. That's it. Best team in the r- in, in hockey during the regular season.
16:33
That is the first time, games two and three, first time regular season or post that the Avalanche have lost consecutive games in which they've had a lead.
16:43
The Golden Knights did that to them in games two and three, and the Knights lead it three to nothing in the best of seven Western Conference Finals. And the Golden Knights are on the cusp, one win away
16:57
from heading to their third Stanley Cup Final in nine seasons of existence. Unbelievable. It's crazy. Looks like, uh, looks like 13 to one-ish live down three to nothing. 13 to one when they're down three to nothing.
17:09
Mm-hmm. Anybody take that? Anybody? Nope. Bueller? No, I was sitting there all pumped about my Avs ticket, or my, uh, N- NHL, uh, exact, uh, Stanley Cup Final ticket. Yeah. I was like, "Good, three to nothing lead.
17:22
Don't have to worry about this game. Can just lock in on basketball." Also, why are they playing these games at the same time? Oh, it kills me, man. Do, do we like, do- It bothers me so much...
17:31
do we think there's just zero crossover audience? Like, what? Like- Yeah, I guess that's what they think...
17:35
act- I mean, actually, the, the one that stands out to me more, more so than the hockey is the basketball starting late. Like, the, I, I guess I'd remember earlier Sunday afternoon games. Maybe I, maybe I'm crazy, but...
17:47
Unlike with the Knicks and the Cavs, which we're about to talk about, Knicks lead that best of seven Eastern Conference Final of the NBA three to nothing.
17:53
No NBA team has ever come back from a three to nothing deficit famously in a best of seven. In hockey, for those who still have Avalanche tickets, Avalanche, by the way, 14 to one to w- now to win the Cup.
18:06
I'm surprised it's not longer. But it has happened four times in hockey that a team has come back from a three to nothing deficit in a best of seven playoff series. The 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs, who could forget it?
18:17
Sure. That was in a Stanley Cup Final, by the way. That's the only time it's happened in a final.
18:21
Uh, '75 Islanders versus the Penguins, 2010 Flyers versus the Bruins in the Eastern Conference Semis, and the Los Angeles Kings in 2014 most recently did it against the Sharks in the first round out west. Jonathan Quick.
18:34
That is correct, and that's all, that is all That, uh, that's all. Four times. That's what the Avalanche are trying to do to buck history for the fifth time.
18:44
Um, Jeff Holdorf, "Curious, with Vegas up three to nothing, do you know what the pre-series price was to play Vegas to sweep the series four to nothing over heavily favored Colorado? Had to be massive.
18:55
Thank you for great shows every day. Appointment listening." Thank you, Jeff. And another great question, 'cause Felika asked this on the group chat last night. He goes, "What was, what was Vegas to, to sweep?
19:04
Must've been astronomical." We'll get that for you. Jason Stark, "Hey, Gil. I have two boys, so a lot of movies here." Yes, the previews have gotten insane.
19:13
It's so bad that they passed a law in Connecticut that theaters have to publish the actual start time of the movie now. Thank you. This close to being a 10. That, that's a thing in Connecticut? That's incredible.
19:27
Can I tell you something? If you're not- Can you imagine get- something getting so bad you have to do that? Listen, this is, it's like, you know, with movie theaters. This was, it used to be a huge part of my life.
19:35
This is only the second time since the pandemic that I've gone. It just, it's just not a part of my life anymore.
19:39
And so to be just, you know, air dropped into a movie theater for the first time in all these years, it's, it like ta- I was like, are you kidding me? Another? Show the movie.
19:50
I, I mean, it is like, you know, thank God you're a business. Are you ready for the film yet? Yes, I am. Like, thank God you're, you're an industry that hasn't struggled at all recently, Gil.
20:00
Let's, uh, let's continue to dupe people into what time a movie starts. Make sure, again, to silence your phones. I've done that five times. Show the film. I wanna see Michael.
20:11
See, I hate when it's like, then it's, then it's roll the T-Mobile ad. You're like, "Why? Why? Why do I need this in the movie theater?" Keep it down for those around you.
20:19
No, I'm not gonna say anything, just show the movie. Montreal Max, "Thank you Gil and Kelly for being on this holiday morning, as having you guys on live during the French Open is a valuable asset for us.
20:28
But HBO Max is killing me with two concurrent stream limit, but they offer you four streams beyond multi-view, just not for sports. WTF?" Boy, that's a lot to unpack there.
20:39
You have your own complaints about this kind of thing, right? Yeah. There, there's a lot to unpack there. But no, I just think like yesterday's such a great example. Like, what an, what an amazing sports day it is.
20:48
Like, every year you got all these races going on. Yeah. You got the French Open starting up.
20:52
You got golf, NBA, NHL, Major League Baseball, everything going on, and it's just like, it's, it's what we've been complaining about for a few years now. But, but you can't like...
21:01
The days of jumping around your old like TV Guide and hitting last buttons and everything, it's like, no, let me pull up Amazon Prime and go to this NASCAR race for four minutes before I have to exit out of Amazon Prime, and then I'm gonna forget about the NASCAR race going on because I gotta go over to this streaming service to put on, you know, I gotta go to HBO Max to put on the French Open.
21:20
It's just, it's, it's too much, too much. Chuck is the one. "Did you sneak any food or drink into the theater?" Plus EV. He said, "Of course I did, Chuck. Come on. What are you really thinking? Of course we did."
21:31
James Sod, "I don't know why you guys were worried about the Knicks Cavs ending early. Kenny Atkinson told me the Cavs are up two to one via analytics."
21:38
[snorts] I- It is, this is by the way, again, this is one of my pet peeves. Because Kenny Atkinson should be smart enough to know that saying that is gonna have- Right. Yes, yes...
21:48
everybody's lowest common denominator jump down his throat. Yeah. You do know what he means, right? With all, whatever the gobbledygook or blah, you know, expected points, whatever that stuff is.
22:00
So he's just, he had a moment where he wanted- [laughs]... he felt the need to communicate, "Hey, actually, it's not as bad as it looks." He shouldn't have, and no one cares.
22:12
But let's hold two thoughts in our head at the same time. That- He should never have said it. But- It is funny, Gil. Yeah.
22:16
You and I did, you and I did talk about it, but all I, all I thought when I first time I, uh, heard it, I was like, "Oh, Kenny. Oh, you can't, you can't." You can't say it. "You can't say that.
22:24
Leave that for goobers like me to say," right? [laughs] Like, leave that for guys like me to try to defend how well you're playing by saying stuff like that. Like, nah, this is, this is what we bring up.
22:33
Like, you don't bring this up. Don't bring this up. Oh, you know what Jason s- uh, what, uh, Jason Stark is showing me? Something that w- a little fine print under Star Wars, The Mandalorian.
22:41
He goes sh- "Movies may s-" Oh, wow. "Movies start 25 to 30 minutes after showtime." Well, didn't see that. Well, at least, at least whatever app- Good to know... that is puts that on there. That's kind of cool.
22:51
Good for AMC Theatres. I think I did go to an AMC Theatre. All right. As far as the Cavs and the Knicks, it's game thr- it's game four tonight. The Knicks are up three to nothing.
22:58
Knicks roll the Cavs again, uh, in game three. And again, this has never happened. No team has ever come back from a three to nothing deficit in the NBA. Knicks are favored by two and a half points tonight.
23:11
Total's at 218 and a half. My only comment on this is if you, [sighs] I, if you wanna bet the Cavaliers, my only question to you is what's your justification? There are no hero points in betting. Yeah.
23:25
So I don't know what your, your philosophy is. I'm not saying the Cavs can't win it. They very well can. But I just don't know what your philosophy is on this. Anything from you? I got nothing in this game.
23:36
I laid the two and a half small with the Knicks. I'm with you on the Cleveland side. 'Cause there's a, 'cause there's a capitulation factor that's possible here? Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Yeah.
23:43
I absolutely, and, and look, I heard Will bring it up, uh, on By the Books too. [laughs] Like, love that Will and I see so eye to eye on this.
23:49
Like, yeah, if you're into, if you're into laying alts, I think this is probably a good game too. This could easily get out of hand and New York just steamrolls o- over the Cavs. Eh.
23:58
But kind of every time I go to look at those alt prices, Gil, I do the same thing Will does where I'm like, yeah, just feel like I should be getting a little bit more bang for my buck, uh, on these.
24:04
So yeah, I laid the two and a half [laughs] small. I don't think I'm gonna be doing anything more than that. It's just, like they, I, I guess I could say the Cavs have shot the three ball really poorly all series.
24:15
Yeah, that's a thing. I- i- if that, is that gonna turn around though and turn around tonight and then save their series? Yeah, probably not.
24:23
Anything about this changes how you feel about the Knicks in the NBA finals, assuming they get there? No. Whether it's versus OKC or San Antonio. No. It's t- it's tough, man.
24:33
It's tough because this is as good as we've ever seen this Knicks core play together, and it, seeing the wing players step up has been incredible. It's still a really crappy Eastern Conference. Yeah.
24:45
It's like we say in tennis, "This w- this represents a step up in competition for this player." Yeah. That's what this would be. Coming back, Greg Peterson, baseball plays, numbers game. VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:55
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
25:05
Don't forget about the sharp plays, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting info, alerts directly from the pros, sharpplays.com.
25:15
You can scan the QR code on the screen for more information. Uh, back when the, uh, San Francisco Giants, Kelly Bidlin- Mm...
25:23
were, uh, winning three World Series in a five-year span, 2010, 2012, 20tw- 2014, uh, we used to afterwards be like, "All right, who were all the Giants that played on all three of those World Series teams?"
25:34
And it was some of the names you would know, right? MadBum, Timmy Lincecum, Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, and then it gets a little dicey 'cause it goes to the bullpen, right? [laughs] Yeah. So it's Sergio Romo.
25:46
It's- Oh, man, haven't thought of Romo in a while... Affeldt. It's Lopez. How many is that now? How many did I get? Uh, three from the pens. You're up to seven or five. Casilla. Casilla. This is where it gets- Okay...
25:55
really, like, Giants hardowish. And then who did I forget? Oh, y- Matt Cain was not actually on the roster, but it was those guys.
26:01
The Vegas Golden Knights have not, uh, they haven't won three Stanley Cups, I get it, but it's three Stanley Cup finals in a span of nine years.
26:08
Can you name the three players that if they get there will have played in all? Oh, God, not at all. Absolutely not. Let's bring in Greg Peterson. Let's see if he can answer that.
26:15
Greg Peterson joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line on this Memorial Day. Good morning, Greg. Mark Stone. [laughs] No. It's Greg. Hey, hey, I'm doing great, and I have no idea whatsoever- No idea...
26:25
who those players are. Really? I would think even tangent, like, even just casual being here you would know the players. Shea Theodore. Yeah. Okay. William Karlsson, Brayden McNabb. Karlsson's still on that team? Geez.
26:40
They, they had a... Yeah, there were, there's a couple Karlssons- Yeah, yeah, yeah... but William Karlsson, though. Bill. Wild Bill, right? No, no, no John. Former Capital- Yeah, yeah... I believe, as well.
26:48
Anyway, it's just a kind of a, a Giants fan thing to think of. So it's full-day baseball here, Greg Peterson, uh, but we don't have four teams playing, which seems un-American. Um, do you get excited?
26:59
You, are you invited to a barbecue later today? Or, or for you, is it just standard schedule, you leave here, you run 12 miles, that sort of thing? I am very much a man of routine, Gil.
27:10
I'm gonna be doing my jog a little bit earlier today. It's getting nice and warm, so we're gonna be putting in a good sweat. I'll get in a nice lift. I will maybe eat something a little bit out of the ordinary.
27:22
I'm like a typical chicken breast and vegetables guy. Maybe throw in there, like, a little bit of shrimp, a little bit more of the steak on this day.
27:30
I'll make that myself, and I'll go to work, make sure that the podcast is all up at midnight Pacific, 3:00 AM Eastern like I always do. So for me, it is business as usual.
27:41
I love it, and the podcast, by the way, he says a jog. He's going for 12 miles. A jog. Yeah. Um, the podcast Coast to Coast Hoops, college basketball does not stop with Greg.
27:52
He is still podcasting college hoops and the Baseball Betting Show for our purposes here today. It's full-day baseball.
27:57
Let's start with the Tampa Bay Rays, best record in all of baseball, and for now, the best record in the month of May for those who have bet on this sort of thing.
28:05
Uh, Rays are 16 and 4, and the Guardians are 16 and 7, so right now it would dead heat at Caesars if the month were to end today. This just in, it does not. Six games left.
28:17
By the way, the reason there's six games left in the month of May for both of those is 'cause the Rays have had two postponements at the Red Sox and at the Yankees. Oh, man.
28:26
So for dead heat purposes, that's a real- That's a gift to the Guardians. For circa purposes- Right... it could go either way on that. It might be a helpful thing to the Rays. We'll never know.
28:39
Anyway, back to today and Greg. Sorry about that, Greg. Hmm. Brief, brief parenthetical aside there, Greg. Uh, Rays play this morning. You have a play in the Rays game.
28:48
Absolutely, and I will say, by the way, speaking of the Coast to Coast Hoops podcast, thank you, LSU, for making this last week very, very easy to do podcasts. So we appreciate [laughs] that here in the month of May.
28:58
But that said, what I appreciate is what the Rays have been able to do as well. You mentioned it. Winners of 16 out of their 20 games here in the month, and Sugar Shane McClain, man, has been great for this Rays team.
29:10
He's been able to fly a sub-three ERA, sub-three field, independent, and for the Orioles, this offense has been much better at home rather than away from home.
29:18
You have to have some question marks here with the fact that this bullpen has been in the bottom eight in terms of ERA. Kyle Bradish, who gets to start for them, 4.8 walks per nine innings.
29:28
I feel like the Rays offense is very undervalued. You got so many guys like Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, that do a nice job move line, getting on base. Junior Caminero had 44 home runs last year.
29:39
He's back on pla- pace for 35-plus this year as well. With the Rays, they had a shaky start to the season for their bullpen.
29:45
They've been able to round into form, and the Rays, they have the best record right now in the American League. They've been playing as such. I laid about a minus 120 here on that Rays money line. Okay.
29:55
Rays to keep it going from Greg. Uh, Nats and Guardians. Speaking of the Guardians, Guardians are big favorites in this game, but you're playing the total here?
30:03
I'm playing the total, and I do like the Guardians on the run line as well. You're seeing that right around plus 120, plus 125 because I just think that they pound Zach Littell in this game.
30:12
With Zach Littell, he has got a 583 ERA, fielding independent of a 737. He's getting 4.5 strikeouts per nine innings in his line, 2.9 home runs per nine innings.
30:25
He's quite literally lucky that his ERA is below a six, and then he's backed up by a Washington Nationals bullpen that's in the bottom eight in terms of ERA.
30:34
Guardians have been more of a league average team in terms of their bullpen in terms of ERA. This year as well, that's a little bit uncharacteristic.
30:40
Typically, they find themselves in the top five, but likes of Erik Zabowski, Tim Aron, they've been pretty rock solid. And for the Guardians, this offense has been better than it has been in the past.
30:50
They're more of a league average team this year, despite the fact that some of your guys, like Steven Kwan, José Ramírez, that we all know and love, they haven't necessarily been great.
30:58
It's been more of the guys like Brian Rocchio, Aníbal Martínez, that have been able to step up for the Guardians.
31:03
Do think that they have, are able to get a little bit more of those star guys here today and moving forward. And additionally, I do think that Tanner Bibee gives you a relatively solid start.
31:12
He's been posting up an ERA more than two and a half points lower at home rather than away from home. So like the Guardians run line and that eight total to the over.
31:20
Before we get to your other three as part of your, uh, fab five on this Memorial Day for baseball, Greg, since, uh, just, we just paired the two together talking about the top of the May standings Rays, Guardians.
31:30
I had, I have the Guardians under season win total for the season. They're killing me. Rays obviously, uh, overachieving per most pre-flop expectations.
31:40
Which of those two teams do you think is the more sustainable in terms of their success, Rays or Guardians? Tampa Bay Rays. I love their starting rotation.
31:49
They haven't even gotten great bullpen pitching just yet, and it feels like they've been getting better and better in that bullpen by the week.
31:56
Like, we saw what they were able to put out there over the weekend against the New York Yankees, played them really well.
32:01
I think that this Rays team is very much the real deal, and they've been really good at the top this year.
32:06
Like, a lot of people wouldn't think this, but in the past, the Rays have typically not been the world's greatest team when they've been at home. They've been good on the road. They've been good at home.
32:16
It just feels like a really well-rounded team.
32:18
And while they might not be able to make the World Series, because I feel like oftentimes with the Rays' style, they burn themselves up by the time they get to the postseason, they play every game like it's their last.
32:28
That's really good if you're betting day-to-day, and if you're betting a, shall we say, divisional prop. Let's go to the National League, Phillies, Padres. It's Luzardo against Vasquez.
32:40
Yep, and Randy Vasquez, in my opinion, has been one of the most improved pitchers in all of baseball this year. So taking a shot on plus money on the Padres on the moneyline.
32:48
And Jesus Luzardo has pitched much better than the ERA would indicate. Right around a 4.85 ERA, 2.86 fielding independent.
32:54
He's not giving up the deep ball a lot, but he's also got a Philadelphia Phillies lineup behind him that's 24th in the league in terms of run creation away from home. Padres have a sub-three bullpen ERA at home.
33:05
You can get to Jason Adam, Mason Miller. That's, in my opinion, the best eighth and ninth inning punch in all of baseball. Padres seem to be finding a little bit more on offense with Gavin Céz. So Fernando Tatis Jr.
33:16
having as many home runs as the three of us, and neither of us have went into a professional batter's box this season. Hmm. So that's not a place where you wanna be.
33:24
But do think that they're gonna round into form a little bit more there to take a shot on plus money on the Padres on the moneyline. Greg, you don't know that about Kelly.
33:31
He might've played some minor league ball at some point. Yeah, might have. Uh, Dodgers- I can look at the box scores and not see Kelly Bidlin in there this season. [laughs] That's true.
33:39
Uh, look, uh, look, look now, Dodgers game and a half lead over the Padres for the NL West. Whoa, no way. Rockies, Dodgers at Chavez Ravine tonight. How are you playing this? Yeah, I liked that run line before.
33:51
Now you're getting minus 150. This has gotten to a point of no return. Instead, you can look at the over of nine. I was thinking you were gonna get Kyle Freeland a little bit earlier. Now it's looking like Tanner Gordon.
34:01
That's actually a downgrade. Tanner Gordon for his career well above a five ERA. He's gotten pounded like crazy. And Emmett Sheehan has been giving up quite a few runs as well.
34:10
Over a 4.70 ERA, he's been giving up about 1.8 home runs per nine innings. Dodgers have actually scored more than a full run, half point, or a run and a half more when they've been away from home rather than at home.
34:21
I think that you're gonna get a little bit more offense out of this Dodgers lineup at home.
34:25
Additionally, you saw them be able to bust out over the weekend against the Milwaukee Brewers for two big games, so I think that that really gets the ball rolling.
34:32
I like that total of nine to the over in this Dodgers versus Rockies game. All right, and then finally, AL West game between the Mariners and the Athletics.
34:40
The no account Mariners, who I bet on for most wins in the month of May, Todd was right, so frustrating. This is a virtual coin flip in this one. Yep, and I want no part of Luis Castillo in a coin flip.
34:54
Like, man, this has not been great. Now, likely gonna be piggybacking with Bryce Miller.
34:59
In his two starts thus far this season, Miller has been solid, but throughout his career, he's got an ERA that's a full point and a half worse when he's away from home rather than at home.
35:07
Aaron Civale has been really good for the A's this far this season. Do think that there might be a little bit of regression there. Not to the point where you get the seven and a half to the over.
35:15
Mariners are right now dealing with the Cal Raleigh injury. They've been a bottom eight team in terms of run creation away from home. 10 and a half, too rich for my blood, so I like the under.
35:23
But do think that the A's go out there, get the job done in a relatively pickup game at home. Took the Athletics on the moneyline. All right, Rays over the O's. Nats, Guardians over eight.
35:32
Padres over the Phillies, a slight dog. Rockies, Dodgers over eight and a half. And the Athletics over the Mariners. Greg Peterson's Fab Five. Greg, enjoy the day. Enjoy your run. Appreciate it. I appreciate you.
35:47
Thank you. Greg Peterson, everybody, @gunit_81 on Twitter. Little Country Club next. There's nothing like being in the stands cheering on your favorite team.
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Download the Game Time app and create an account to start searching for tickets to upcoming games and events. [rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
36:39
Back on the numbers game live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlin. You get tweets of beating the book. Doug Tuttle, "What day this week do you expect to talk about June wins?"
36:51
Man, I hadn't thought about it. Uh, it's the 25th today, so we have to do it this week because the 1st is on Monday. Yeah, so we have to do it Friday or Thursday. Well, I mean, we can only do it if they're posted.
37:05
Yep, we can only do it if they're posted. That's right, and my guess is Circle will not have them posted by the time we do it, but Caesars probably will. Bat, bat signal to Eric Biggio over at Caesars, William Hill.
37:17
Yeah, I would hope. Yeah. Hope Friday they're up at least there. We can discuss them then. Otherwise, it'll be bright and early on Monday morning. Jason Schaumburg
37:25
@shellme, "What was the slot book Fezzik was promoting on Friday's show?" Do you remember? Um, I do not. I had it written down. Uh- Well, Danny's got it... Danny Higgins is, uh, efforting it right now. Uh,
37:39
Breaking the Slot Code. Breaking the Slot Code, and the author, Danny, do you know? Ben Rosenthal. Breaking the Slot Code. There you go. All right. Well, we're just do- we're just doing this show off the cuff.
37:52
Lookit there. Lookit her, the beautiful Iga Swiatek right on the set there with your boy, with your boy Lefko. [laughs] Which means we gotta go- Why is he my boy? He bothers me more than like anybody.
38:01
[laughs] Although I like his jacket. Oh, God. Let's go country clubbing. Let's do it. No? [upbeat music] Oh, yeah. Little slow. Little slow. Sorry. Those sticks aren't slow though.
38:16
Well, this has been a, uh, this has been a rough tennis morning. Uh, one in four for me with Monfils pending later this afternoon. The one was a big one though.
38:27
It was over two units, but still, not a, not a good start to the French Open. Choppy to say the least. Not good. And, and particularly, a couple ladies performances that I cannot explain at all.
38:38
Pennetta, Udvardy, and what was the other one already? I can't even rem- I already forgot already.
38:43
But both of the, both performances on the ladies side were just awful this morning, so I apologize for those who are subscribers. We had a great, uh, which, and clay has been interesting 'cause Madrid was great. Mm.
38:54
Rome sucked. Last week with the Ficaccio tournaments was great. This week, first two days, you know, it's not the end of the world if Monfils wins today, but still not a good start to the French Open.
39:04
Uh, Danny Higgins has put out a, uh, has found this. This is the Men's French Open without Sinner, so we've reached the without Scheffler phase of the men's tour. Good.
39:14
With Car- Carlos Alcaraz out for both the French Open and Wimbledon. So this is the Men's French without Jannik Sinner. Sascha Zverev is the short shot, plus 320.
39:25
Rafa Nadal who made quick work in his match today, straight set winner, he's at six to one. Casper Ruud, who has the best clay numbers of anybody on this board, is at plus 650.
39:36
Novak Djokovic seven to one, everybody else double digits. And quite frankly, those are accurate numbers in my opinion. Djokovic didn't look great against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard the other day. Mm-hmm.
39:48
Was that yesterday? Yesterday. Yesterday. Yeah. Watched a lot of that. Didn't look great. Um, won it in four sets. Perricard's worst surface is clay. His serve gets mitigated.
39:58
He's a bit of a serve bot, really good server, terrible really besides that. Djokovic had a little sh- more trouble than he should've with him.
40:06
Should've, but, you know, I don't know if you know this, the man's 38 years old. So I don't know if should've is the, uh, is the correct verbiage on that anymore. So, actually 39 years old, pardon me.
40:19
I don't wanna shortchange him. 39 years old, just turned on May 22nd.
40:24
So for me, again, and this is sort of related if you, if you listen to the Beating the Book podcast, which I did with Drew and Zach Cohen, Drew Dincic, Zach Cohen,
40:33
Casper Ruud was the guy, is the guy that we all consensus felt would beat Djokovic and be a great bet against Djokovic if they meet in the round of 16, I believe it would be. Mm-hmm.
40:44
So I think the best value is either Hodar or Ruud, six to one or plus 650, in the winner without Sinner market. So are they both, are they both on the other side of the bracket? Great question. Top or bottom?
40:57
'Cause that's where this handicap comes in, right? If you are, if you're really thinking Sinner makes it to the finals, then who's meeting him? So let's, let's define what this means here, winner without Sinner.
41:09
In golf, it's very easy to determine winner without Scheffler. Right. Whoever's got the lowest score. The fine print here is what? Whoever, what, what happens if there's a tie? No one gets past a certain round.
41:24
See what I'm saying? It's a different sport, so I don't know how this works. I have to read the fine print on this. Somebody would have to, right?
41:30
No, what I'm, what I'm, what I'm saying is what if no- what if there is a,
41:35
what if multiple players, and let, well, let's say the, the players in this market that go the furthest all get knocked out in the same round at the end.
41:44
So let's say, let's say two of these guys get to the quarterfinals. The last two remaining on this board get to the quarters, and they both get knocked out. You dead heat those two guys? Is that what happens?
41:52
N- no, but you, you, no, you can't, right? Right? Like, am I thinking about this right? 'Cause s- let's say Sinner makes the final.
41:58
Whoever, whoever makes, whoever makes- Yeah, but what if the person who makes the final is not on this board? Or is ev- I'm assuming everybody's listed... almost every human, uh, would- I'm assuming everybody's listed.
42:05
Okay. So then whoever- Yeah. Okay. Okay, well, that makes sense. So it's, for me, it's Hodar and Ruud, but of course, you would have to go to the draw itself.
42:14
'Cause oth- otherwise, right, if you're b- if you're, if you're betting, uh, sor- uh, sorry, is it, is it top or bottom or sides when we're referring to the, uh, tennis brackets?
42:23
What it would- Like, is he the same side as Sinner or is it the top- That's a-... top or bottom, right? Yeah, you have to, you have to go to the draw itself, right? 'Cause you almost can't bet anybody on his side.
42:31
That is correct. I mean, if you are- You cannot do that... you're betting in a, betting in a different market, betting in just the outright market or to make the final.
42:37
Well, so to answer your question, right, um, of these players, the per- the, the folks that are on Sinner's side, just at, at a quick glance- Like Zverev's gotta be on the other side, right?
42:49
That's why he's, he, that's why he's as short as he is... Zverev is on the other side. Well, I'll do, I'll do, okay, I have it listed here. I'm sorry. There's a, we should really be prepared for these segments.
42:58
My bad on these. So on Sinner's side, Sinner is, is on Q1. Sinner is in Q1.
43:05
In Q1 and Q2 to go along with Jannik Sinner, and this would effectively eliminate them from consideration here, would be Ben Shelton, Luciano Darderi, Matteo Berrettini, Daniil Medvedev, Flavio Cobolli, Lerner Tien, and my guy, Francisco Cerundolo.
43:22
And my guy because I have him to win the quarter. Everybody else though- Yeah, like he's not even listed... everybody else here, right, this entire group is on the other side, besides Medvedev. Besides Medvedev. Yes.
43:31
Yeah, I was gonna say, that's the only name I heard. Um, I can't vouch for Mensik and Machac off the top of my head, to be honest with you.
43:39
But all these other, like, and, and Shelton is on, is on, uh, his side as we said. But Ruud, Paul, Fonseca, Djokovic, Hodar, Zverev, they're all on the other side
43:51
So yeah, goes back to what we said at the beginning, Ruud and Hodare for me. Mm-hmm. That's it. That's the answer. By the way, Taylor Fritz, the big upset of the first round of the tournament. Oh, yeah. Lost today.
44:01
Beaten by Basavaradi. I, I only know that be- Visesh Basavaradi in his first ever main draw in a slam. Oof.
44:11
I only know that, Gil, because as always, when Taylor Fritz goes out, we get at least a couple tweets about Joe Cerullo. That's right.
44:16
[laughs] And, and that's one of those where I would never, like, there, like, uh, Zheng Qinwen lost today, and there's a little bit of regret for me- Ooh...
44:22
'cause I'm like, I had a lean on her, on her opponent, but I didn't have the, the onions to play it. There was no such lean in the Fritz match. Mm. Like, there was no way I would have ever played Basavaradi.
44:33
So anyway, that's the answer to that question for me, is Hodare or Ruud. Uh- Isn't that, isn't that interesting, like, the, the betting mindset?
44:40
Like, we were talking about that on Long Shots last week when you asked me about Wyndham Clark, right? Oh, yeah. And it's, like, PGA Championship, Aaron Rai. No, uh, there- Nope... no consideration whatsoever. Nope.
44:50
So it's really hard to be angry about that. Yeah. Wyndham Clark was in consideration for me. That, it's the same thing for me. And didn't, didn't bet it. Ugh. Same thing for me.
44:56
Some, some of them you have regrets, some of them there's no, there's no world in which you would bet. Here's the Women's French. This has n- it's nobody, in other words, there's no market without anybody here.
45:04
It's everybody. Um, Iga, quick work of her opponent, Emerson Jones, today. Uh, she was on the court for an hour. I think won it 6-1, 6-2 or 6-2, 6-1. Either way, Iga's on her way to the second round. Um,
45:19
she is co-short shots with Aryna Sabalenka, who's yet to play, plus 275. Has Sabalenka played yet? I don't think she played yet. Uh, Coco, 6 to 1. Rybakina won this morning. She's plus 650.
45:30
Andreieva, Mirra Andreieva, that is, 9 to 1. Everybody else double digits. Elina Svitolina, who, uh, is the shortest of the rest. Mm. She survived a scare this morning against Ana Bondar.
45:40
She had to go to a third set tiebreaker to win it. That could have been the other, uh, the second, uh, upset of the day.
45:46
Although, uh, Zheng Qinwen at the bottom of your screen, she lost in straights to Swiatek this morning, which I do have some regret about. Um, Iga still the girl to beat, but Coco's got the best of the draw.
45:56
I don't think anything's changed from what we were talking about last week here. The draw did Iga no favors, even though she's the queen of clay, looking for her fifth Roland Garros title.
46:05
But Coco got the best of it, and so I think there's a lot of value. If you wanted to bet Coco, it makes sense based on the draw. The, the upper part of that draw, so much easier than the bottom half,
46:19
in my humble opinion. Yeah, Sabalenka tomorrow. Yeah. Sabalenka tomorrow. Jessica, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro. See who she's playing. Shouldn't have any trouble with her, but Bouzas Maneiro's not terrible.
46:30
Anything that you bet that's still left in action today? Just the, just the, uh- That started... Morphew. Okay. Just the Morphew. Uh, Suzanne Bondarchuk is, uh, saving us from disaster today.
46:41
If Morphew can win again, it's not, and then, you know, what are you, you lose a little less than two units. Still a bad day, but not disaster if Morphew can win. And then what, uh, what futures we got? We got Sinner.
46:51
You and I are both on Sinner. Sinner, but at numbers that no longer exist. Yeah. Swiatek a little quarter. Swiatek a little quarter. Swiatek on the ladies' side. There it is right there on the screen. Boom.
47:00
Not to mention the Spurs to win the finals, also pictured at 19 to 1. Somehow crept onto that screen. Yeah, love it. Come on, Spurs. Let's do it. All right, Adam Burke to join us. Wes Reynolds.
47:12
How about some blind resume? NL Cy Young blind resume. This should be fun. Next on a Numbers Game with VSiN, the sports betting network.
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