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May 26, 2025
A Numbers Game | May 26, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | May 26, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:10
Not just any Monday morning, Memorial Day morning. It's Gil Alexander, it's a numbers game. Kelly Billin alongside. VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158.
0:20
However you're taking us in, we do appreciate it. Uh, hello sir. Hey man, how you doing? Memorial Day, uh, plans for you today? Oh, nothing. Nothing. Nothing. These, uh... I, I just get surprised sometimes with it.
0:31
You get so used to working through, through holidays, you know, when we're doing these shows, you, it's, it's barely a blip on the radar. [laughs] Oh, we b- I had to be reminded yesterday. We, uh- Yes...
0:39
Wyatt, Wyatt Tomchek actually said, said it, uh, uh, as soon as I got in, he was like, "Man, it was really easy getting in on the roads today." It took me a few minutes to w- realize why.
0:46
I was like, "Oh yeah, that's why." Yeah. Yeah, we don't, we don't say Happy Memorial Day 'cause it is a solemn day, but, uh, people do go out and, uh, have themselves
0:54
a barbecue and get together and that kind of thing, so, uh- Yeah, I mean, enjoy a day off... enjoy your day. We were just talking to Dave Ross about it. Just keep in mind, you know, why this holiday exists, right?
1:04
And, uh, all, you know, all the, all the respect and due salute to all the troops out there and what they've sacrificed to allow us to do what we do every day, which is BS about sports betting, so- Well said...
1:14
very lucky. Well said. To BS about sports betting.
1:17
Uh, Carl Sack will join us here, uh, momentarily, talk National Basketball Association with us, and he would like to do a point-counterpoint to something that Crack brought up the other day- Mm-hmm...
1:26
about, uh, betting NBA sides. Uh, Paul Sporer will join us on, uh, Major League Baseball. Wes Reynolds, as always, on a Monday, talk a little golf and his Indiana Pacers.
1:36
What of the, the curious case of the Indiana Pacers, which Kelly and I will get into here momentarily. Like the curious case of the Eastern Conference. It's just been- Period... ridiculous. Period.
1:46
Uh, obviously we have a NBA tonight between the, uh, Thunder and the T-Wolves. T-Wolves three-point, uh, favorites in this game, three-point dogs, pardon me, in this game.
1:54
Uh, once again in game number four as they were in game three. Totals at 218. Do you have a play in this tonight? Uh, I do not. I, I think I'm just gonna ride my futures tickets, but I would...
2:06
If I didn't have them, it would l- at least be a small play on the Thunder. Small play on the Thunder tonight. Yeah, I do expect them to rebound tonight. I think we'd be, see a better performance.
2:13
I- Total no-show in game three for the Thunder. Total no-show game three.
2:16
I texted JVT and Zach this, uh, o- over, uh, yesterday, we were talking about it, and I'm, I'm like, "Hey, look, how much you really take away from a game like that?"
2:24
And we were kinda, we were kinda batting back, uh, batting f- back and forth.
2:27
A few things that we did notice that stood out a little bit that Minnesota was doing, playing some other guys off the bench, how they were handling Shay.
2:35
But honestly, Gil, like I bet over five and a half i- in this series because partially the biggest reason for that was I expected after a seven-game series against the Denver Nuggets that, that one of these first few games, the Thunder to just run into a major letdown spot.
2:48
And I think that you, after you battle a seven-game series against Denver, you go and handle business at home, game one, game two.
2:55
I, it, I, it's easy to l- say it now, but it looked back at, at a game three where it just seemed like an easy, easy letdown spot for the Thunder. Are we going with that in the NBA playoffs? There are letdown spots?
3:05
I, I, I think with- That, that seems to me to be retroactive armchair quarterbacking. No, I think s- I, uh, no, you might be right.
3:11
Um, I think with a, I think it's easier to ask that question with a inex- more inexperienced team like the Thunder. I would ex- I would not expect that out of a- That's probably true... battle-tested- No...
3:22
you know, a veteran-led team. Yeah, you're not supposed to have a letdown spot in the NBA playoffs. No, you shouldn't. Yeah. Yeah.
3:27
You shouldn't, and that's why I think they, they learn their lessons and it's a little bit of a teaching point. We see them bounce back stronger tonight. And you know what? Guess what?
3:33
Minnesota finally started hitting some shots that were wide open.
3:36
About last night, starring Rob Lowe and Demi Moore, um, Pacers lose up two to nothing at home, uh, back in Indiana, looking to really the essential close out of the Knicks.
3:48
'Cause remember, if you go up three to nothing in an NBA best of seven playoff series, no team has ever come back from a three to nothing deficit in the history of the league, and only four teams have even pushed a game seven when down three to nothing.
4:01
Most recently, the Boston Celtics, you will remember from two years ago against the Heat, where they came back from a three to nothing deficit to force a game seven.
4:08
Remember they had it at home and they got housed by Playoff Jimmy and the, uh, and the Miami Heat. Um, so this was really for the de facto closeout, and the Pacers went up 20. Not 19, Kelly, not 21.
4:23
[laughs] But that magic number this postseason of exactly 20 points, and that appears, there's something about that number where teams just come back and beat you.
4:34
And last night, this was the, uh, we talked so many times about this Sugar Ray Leonard and Marvin Hagler, uh, April 6th, 1987, when, uh, Leonard beat Hagler.
4:42
And what Leonard did, uh, v- on the scorecards he beat him and he, and he won the match, and he won the bout. And what he did was steal rounds.
4:49
At the end of every w- not every round, but, but several rounds in that fight, the last 30 seconds he would do the, uh, Sugar Ray Leonard flurry and tag Hagler, and it would really, one would assume, make an impression on the judges.
5:00
Well, this was, this is the Knicks now at the end of the second quarter yesterday. They're down 20. They, uh, they go on a s- on a, on a 10 to three run to close the half, to cut it to 13.
5:13
And for those of us who had the Pacers last night, like myself, that was just enough to keep it uneasy. I did not feel great at halftime, even being up 13 points.
5:22
Then at the end of the third quarter, and this will go a little less heralded,
5:26
the Pacers were up 15, 78 to 63 with 3:11 left in the third quarter, and then a s- a little mini seven to two run by the Knicks to cut it to 10 at the end of the third quarter.
5:37
And that was once again one of those uneasy feelings- Yeah... where you're like, "Oh boy, here we go."
5:42
Within four minutes of the beginning of the fourth quarter, the Knicks had taken the lead, and from that point forward, from the eight-minute mark forward, the Pacers had no more than a one-point lead a couple times.
5:53
They did get it tied late at 98 apiece with 1:37 left, but the Knicks had the ball, Brunson with a teardrop. Uh, Knicks went up a bucket, then eventually two free throws from Hart, went up four.
6:05
Halliburton got two free throws on a, just a gift foul call to make it 102-100 with 9.7 seconds left, but then Brunson two more free throws, a miss by the Pacers, Hart two more free throws, and it's Katie bar the door, the Knicks do it.
6:18
Come back from 20, they win it 106-100. And, uh- This now is a much different series feel than it was just a mere hours ago.
6:29
And I will tell you that in the, uh, you know, we've been doing this Killer Sports VSiN Challenge, the brainchild of Carl Sack. My loss in this last night, 'cause I had the Pacers, right?
6:37
I was, I was kinda scorching hot in this, but that- You've been on a tear, man... I was at a eight, one, and one run. But that loss last night pro- doesn't mathematically knock me out, but probably knocks me out of this.
6:49
'Cause I'm in third place now. Uh, me and Kazarian I think are third place, tied for third essentially.
6:55
I would have to win the rest of mine, and Fezzik would have to lose the rest of his, and there's only three games left. That's the problem. So as, as hot as I was, I can't quite get to him, uh, unless he falters.
7:06
Zach, though, is the man to get to Stevie if anybody does. He's one game back. You, Doug, Alex Christensen, you got work to do to stay alive here heading- And you guys got more picks left- Yeah...
7:18
uh, before the end of this round, whereas Steve, Zach, and I do not. And I will, I will make this point, getting back to the games. I'm glad-- So we've made 35 picks during this postseason already. 35 plays we've made.
7:29
What, what are you, what are you four in? You're four picks into this round? No, I'm, I'm complete this round. Oh, you're complete. Okay, okay. 19, 15, and one. Yeah, Zach is also complete.
7:37
Um, that should say 20-- Okay, our standings are off.
7:40
That should say 22 and 13 for Stevie, 21 and 14 for Zach, a game behind, and then I'm 19, 15 and one, a game and a half behind Zach, two games and a half behind Fezzik.
7:53
So 22 and 13 for Stevie, and 21 and 14 for Zach at the top. Anyway, point being, uh, you know, we've made 35 picks in this contest. I've made 35 bets, right? I've backed all these up with bets.
8:05
I am glad I don't have any more picks left in this round, Kelly, because
8:10
with that outcome last night, I've gone from, you know, I-- First of all, in the Timberwolves-Thunder series, I'd never really had a feel for that one. Don't have a feel for that at all.
8:19
For this sp- Pacers-Knicks series, I might come back with the Pacers in game four, but that kinda-- My take on that game last night was a little different from what the broadcast crew was saying.
8:30
Broadcast crew was, was really emphasizing, oh, the Knicks defense was, they really stepped it up. They were really great. I don't know. There was a bunch of possessions there where I felt like the Pacers got tight.
8:42
Yeah. Like a, like a tennis player that couldn't quite get over the finish line. I was just like, uh, there were shots that they passed up that in previous games they weren't passing up.
8:51
I thought Haliburton had a bunch of possessions where he was like, "No, I'll just pass this," almost like he wanted to preserve his legacy here in this, in this playoffs. I got that feeling a few times last night.
9:02
Oh, he's the-- That is the most frustrating thing about him as a player.
9:05
So I, yeah, I, that to me was, uh, I know they were emphasizing, by the way, the Knicks deserve credit, absolutely great defense and all that might be true, but I do think the Pacers were a bit of an accomplice to it.
9:16
Yeah, I'm not. I, I think if you're holding a Pacers series ticket like, like both you and I are, I, I don't really think here there's much concern.
9:23
I ag- I don't disagree with anything you just said, but as far as looking forward and look- You said I'm not. I'm not sure what you're saying I'm not to. What did I say I'm not? Not too wor- not too worried about.
9:30
Oh, yeah. Like, I don't take too much conc- too many concerns away from that if I, if I am a Pacers backer. You and I both have series bets on them. I think the defense part, the Knicks defense, sure, it, it, it's true.
9:41
Guess what happens? When you take players off the court because they're in foul trouble like Brunson and Katt were, who are amazing offensive players and disasters on defense- Yeah... your defense can only get better.
9:53
And then the bench unit that the Pacers never see because the Knicks run out the same guys every single game- Not last night... not last night. Yeah.
10:00
You, you get a look at something that you haven't seen basically all year. Okay, credit to those guys that came in and knocked down shots. That was huge.
10:08
And then Karl-Anthony Towns played like an absolute monster- He was-... in the fourth quarter. He's had a couple of those games this playoffs where he has just been a spectacular offense.
10:15
And it's frustrate-- I, you know, I was building him up before this series 'cause this should be a series, in my opinion, that he should be dominant in, and it's frustrating when he doesn't go out there and do this every single game.
10:24
But I, I think the Pacers are still just a better-run team, more organized, know what they're doing t- uh, t- time in and time out. I think the one thing you said is they looked a little bit tight. I agree.
10:35
They looked a little bit tight.
10:36
And what, what it does for me, though, is it, um, I'm glad I don't have any more picks to make and therefore bets to make in this 'cause I don't know that I would want to ne- I don't know that I necessarily have the feeling of this series anymore- Got-- No, I got you.
10:49
I got you... uh, from that. And I've, I feel, maybe I will. I, I'll probably bounce back into it tomorrow. By the way, the, the- Remember, though, they did this the last, what was it, the last two rounds?
10:56
They definitely did against the Cavs. And, and look, they were due for a bad shooting game too, which they finally had. But, uh, and now I forgot where I was going with this. Shooting regression, right?
11:05
Shooting regression. It's gonna happen one of these games. But I, but I did notice that a couple times. I don't think they emphasized that enough where I was like, "Are you guys, n- no one wants to shoot the ball now?
11:12
No one wants to shoot this?" Um, so there was a little bit of that. I, um, I- This is one thing, like Haliburton it is frustrating with 'cause he's a great point guard and, like, an old school point guard, right?
11:22
Great facilitator, but sometimes stars gotta step up and score. Got interesting. I thought both would be short series. Maybe they still will. Maybe they'll still go five, but we'll see. Maybe they'll go long.
11:31
Remember, NBA Finals does not start locked in stone June 5th, no matter what happens here, uh, in these remaining conference finals games. More on this game. Carl Sack will join us to talk NBA betting in general.
11:45
It's a numbers game right here at VSiN, the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
12:01
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12:10
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12:27
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12:42
It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin alongside, everybody. Yep. How you doing? You good? I'm good, man. Yeah? Uh, I wanna say a couple other things about this, uh, this game last night. Um,
12:53
well, one, I thought, by the way, I was on, uh, Should've Bet More, Will Hill's podcast. Mm-hmm. He was kind enough to have me on yesterday. We, we both thought the, the refereeing was kind of evenly poor on both sides.
13:03
Um, when both teams ran out of challenges, right, like the one where McBride tried to jam it on Siakam, and he made a perfect defensive play. They called it on Siakam. Yeah.
13:10
And then, and then as I mentioned earlier, that, that foul that they [laughs] that put Haliburton to the line with 9.7 seconds left was just a phantom call.
13:17
Oh, that was, yeah, that was- Yeah, so I mean, I, and I think that kind of evened out.
13:20
The one thing that I did wanna say was, 'cause if we're being, like, s- super honest about this, uh, when the Pacers were up 20, or when they were up big at any point in that game,
13:30
I was all prepared to come on that podcast and on this show today and be like, "How was that spread only a point and a half or two?"
13:37
And I really felt that way where it was like, I, I think the point of that, 'cause Crack and I talked a little bit about...
13:42
or no, uh, Fez and I talked a little bit about this last week, which is lines can totally manipulate your betting behavior.
13:49
'Cause if that had been four, right, which is where I expected it to have been after games one and two, I would not have bet the Pacers. But at two and at one and a half, I'm like, "Oh, that line's too short.
14:01
I'll absolutely play that," 'cause it, it's close enough to a money line basically, right? Mm-hmm. It's close enough to just having to win where I'm just, I'm absolutely playing this.
14:09
And, you know, most of that game going on, I'm like, how could this have been what it is?
14:12
Is, are there are so many trends in favor of the Knicks in that situation that it kept the line muted, or it's just that the, the, you know, the, the adjustment from the home games from one venue to the other is such that you could only make it that, that amount.
14:27
Anyway, my point would have been, right, nothing that I've seen on the court should have made this only a one and a half or two-point spread, and yet then the Knicks come back, and they win it, and the narrative sort of is there's a bit of confirmation bias in, in the result of this.
14:40
Because a lot of that is, right, oh, well, the, if, if all the trends were in favor of the Knicks for game three, they sure were for the zigzag in game two. Mm-hmm. And that didn't work out either, right? Mm-hmm.
14:48
So, so much of this is confirmation bias based on results. Oh, totally.
14:51
I, I think it's, uh, like some, some of the spreads though this playoffs have been really interesting to me of where we're seeing kind of normal, norm- what we're seeing with some of these games, and like that one, uh, last night I think is a good example of, okay, that's a pretty normal home court flip from what we go just from, okay, one ar- one city to the, to the, to the next.
15:11
But so often during this playoffs, we've seen some of the trends, situation, must-win game scenario stuff built into the spread that it goes even more than what it is.
15:21
So yeah, it's, uh, it, it's been, there's even been a couple games for me where I've been like, [laughs] "I don't know why we're moving this far, but you know, this far out from what the normal flip should be."
15:31
And, and then games like la- last night that kind of just stay like they are. You over the, uh, the standings? You okay after those standings from last segment? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, okay. Sure. Just curious.
15:40
Uh, French Open was not a, it's not a good one this morning for Young Gil. Not a good one. G- day one was great. Didn't get on the picks page. Day two is terrible so far.
15:48
Uh, and it doesn't look like Naomi Osaka is gonna get it done. She's down a break here in the, uh, third set here.
15:53
I have her over, uh, Paula Badosa in what was a great first round match, uh, set, uh, match up anyway in the first round. But it looks like, uh, I don't know. We'll see if Naomi can break back here at the end.
16:04
Naomi looking great, by the way, in the pink with her hair all did. She looks like she's in great shape, uh, but I don't know if she's gonna get us a win, which is the main thing here.
16:12
There's only one match left today, so proceed with caution for me. Uh, Richard Gasquet, once this match ends on Philippe-Chatrier, then it's Richard Gasquet playing tennis on the men's side.
16:24
What's the, what's the court called? The Frenchman. 'Cause that's the stadium- Philippe-Chatrier is the court. Oh, what's the stadium then called? Uh, Philippe-Chatrier. I don't know. Oh. [laughs] I don't know.
16:33
Uh, it's, it's, uh, it's the main court is what it is. I thought I heard another name the other day where I was like- Yeah... I don't know that one as well. Philippe-Chatrier, I remember that one. That's the main court.
16:42
Yeah. Yeah. Um, so once this match ends, then, uh, r- by the way, spell, pronounced in English, it would be Richard Gasket- Mm-hmm... spelled, right? Yep. G-A-S-Q-U-E-T. Have him at plus 147 here.
16:55
Um, about to start once the, again, it'll, it'll start shortly after this one ends on that court. At least that's how the schedule is. Um, so he will take on, uh, another Frenchman, Terrence Atmane,
17:08
or Atmane I believe it's called. Or Terrence Atman. Terrence Atman. Yeah. Yeah. There you go. So Gasquet's the play. But again, proceed with caution 'cause it's not been a good morning.
17:16
Lost a couple five setters on the men's side. Just sort of, you know, could have gone my way and none of, and nothing is. Let's put it that way. How you feeling coming into the tournament in general though?
17:25
The clay numbers have been spectacular- Okay, good... until today. Good. Spectacular. Um, but not this morning. Um, right now in terms of like the futures though, nothing has changed.
17:33
No- nobody, I guess the biggest name to get knocked out on the ladies' side was Marta Kostyuk. Hmm. Got knocked out on the, uh, on the women's side to, uh, Sara Bejlik. She, she lost in the first round.
17:46
So that's one name out of the very crowded Q2 that got bounced.
17:52
So it's like an incremental bump to everybody else in Q2, but it's only incremental 'cause Iga's still gotta play Raducanu and Ostapenko, her kryptonite, and not to mention Paolini or Svitolina down the road.
18:03
So it's, it's one name out, but it's not a huge deal. And then on the men's side, no- nobody really to, to this moment, um, has been ousted, although Taylor Fritz is in trouble, I believe.
18:12
What's the Taylor Fritz score right now? Yeah, Taylor Fritz is abou- is about to get bounced. Wow. From some guy named Altmaier. Uh, Daniel Altmaier, yeah.
18:22
Well, Fritz, Fritz was always a sort of fugazi number one, uh, uh, you know, number one in his quarter, let's put it that way. This is not his surface. That's one of the q- uh, quarters you got betting? No.
18:33
Uh, yes, I have, uh, yes, that the Taylor Fritz quarter is the one that I have. I can't remember if he's Q2 or Q3, but I have Cerundolo in Q2, Francisco Cerundolo in Q2, and I have, uh, Lorenzo Musetti in Q3.
18:45
Uh, Cerundolo at plus 550 to win his. He is down a set, by the way, to Gabriel Diallo. And, uh, then I have Lorenzo Musetti, who is the short shot to win the third quarter at plus 180. Fritz was in, what is he in?
19:00
Q2, Q3? I can never remember specifically. He was in Q3. He was in Musetti's. So that's a boost to Musetti if you believe in that. Yeah, t- totally. Yeah. I mean, that's a good, that's a good result for you.
19:10
The, uh, okay, I'm gonna do some Gil q- uh, questions at you like you do with me with the NBA.
19:15
We said on Friday, one of the are we sure questions was, it's gonna be the, it's gonna be one of the two favorites that wins this on the men's side. If I said one of those guys doesn't make it, who do you think does?
19:25
Musetti. Musetti? Yeah. No, no, no, I'm sorry, I'm talking just the main, the main future sport of, um, uh, Alcaraz and, uh, who's the other favorite? I'm sorry. Sinner. Sinner. Yeah.
19:36
If one of those two doesn't make it, Musetti's the answer? To the final? Yeah, to the final. Yeah, Musetti. Okay. Yeah. That would be, that would be the answer to the question.
19:43
Just 'cause he's had a spectacular year, and specifically on clay since Monte Carlo, he's found something. That's- So that's, so that's... what about on the women's side?
19:51
Oh, women it could be anybody, 'cause again, that Q2 is so c- is so stacked that it's just looking at the quarters right here. I don't even think I ever asked you that question, but you- It's Coco has the best draw.
20:03
Okay. Coco f- Coco from the bottom, Q4, has the best draw. Um, her quarter is the easiest.
20:10
She does have in Q3 in a final, she would potentially have to beat the winner of this match between Badosa or Osaka, Muchova, Pegula, and Andreva. Those would be her biggest competition to get the final.
20:20
But, and then Sabalenka and J- and, uh, Zheng Qinwen on the, uh, on the upper half, just because Q2, the Iga quarter, you can't pick a player out of Q2 'cause there's too many great players. Hmm.
20:31
So it could be Iga, it could be Svitolina, it could be Paolini, you have no idea. So, so you're, are you less sure it's gonna be the two favorites meeting in the, in the finals in the women's side?
20:39
Oh, absolutely less- Yeah... absolutely less sure. It's way, ooh, it's way too stacked. Way too stacked. By the way, um, y- Major League Baseball, May wins. Can we talk about that for a second also? Mm-hmm.
20:49
Um, May wins Major League Baseball. We're down to the last five games for the leaders. Down to the last five games, and by the way, our Padres, they ain't getting it done. It's not happening.
21:02
Hasn't been happening for a while, just that update. But remember that day we had five potential teams, Padres, Phillies, Tigers, Cubs, Giants. Phillies and Tigers are one and four right now.
21:15
Uh, first place and fourth place. Phillies 17 and six in the catbird seat, followed by the March, April pick of the Twins in second at 16 and five. Cardinals are in third at 16 and six. Tigers in fourth at 15 and eight.
21:28
Those are your, uh, those are your contenders now with five games left. Remaining schedule for all of these teams. Phillies, three versus Atlanta at home, two versus the Brewers at home.
21:40
Twins, three at Tampa Bay, two at Seattle. Cardinals, three at Baltimore, two at Texas. So maybe on paper the Cardinals have a, a shot here if they can take care of Baltimore.
21:51
And then Tigers three versus the Giants, two at Kansas City. So anybody's game here. Cardinals being slept on a little bit overall? Uh, I was sleeping on them. I speak on behalf of most people.
22:01
[laughs] We were all sleeping on them. I, I want the Cardinals to win this just so, again, so I don't hate myself.
22:06
'Cause again, Phillies and Tigers were two of my five that I decided not to, uh, you know, two of my five that I considered but didn't pick, and the Twins were March, April.
22:15
So I want the Ca- I want the Cardinals to win so I can just move on. Yeah, I, I m- I guess I meant more from a season just perspective of, uh- Oh, yeah... you know, can they keep up?
22:22
I mean, 16 and six is obviously a little tough to keep up, but can they keep up this type of play? 'Cause I, I feel like- I don't-...
22:27
feel like they're a team that people are high on when they're good, but I heard nobody talking about them- Nobody... this off season. I don't believe it's sustainable, but it's a great organization, that's for sure.
22:36
And they have defied expectation. Cardinals and Giants, and Rays, just smarter than other teams. Mm-hmm. Um, so that's where that stands right now. Five games left. Gotta start with...
22:45
I'm gonna have to give you some, uh, I'm gonna have to give you some funds for June. Coming back, Carl Sack. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
Don't forget to check out the Sharp Plays unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, alerts directly from the pros at sharpplays.com. Check it out.
23:07
We get tweets at Beating the Book on this Memorial Day morning. This is from, appreciate everybody up with us this morning listening. Yeah.
23:14
Uh, Chicago and Ohio tweets, uh, "Tabilo/Cazaux was a excellent first round battle this morning. Should we fade Tabilo next round, or does this boost him?
23:23
It was tough, uh, it was a tough win with the crowd mostly all against him." Yes. Whenever you're, uh, you're beating a Frenchman at, uh, Roland Garros, it is a big deal. Tabilo is a clay court specialist.
23:32
I don't know that he's one of the top clay courters, though. So I, I'd have to look at it in match to match basis. I wouldn't do a blanket fade or a blanket, uh, backing. Um,
23:43
depending on, uh, the situation, obviously, who's his opponent and f- of course, what the price is more than anything.
23:48
Charles in Connecticut, "Always a good listen," uh, talking about the Shoulda Bet More podcast, "when Will and Gil get together without the, uh, hard out restrictions.
23:54
The players looking for a review every call drives me crazy, too, in these games. Don't ask the coach to challenge a blown possession call when the score is 13 to nine in the first quarter." Oh. "Understand the moment."
24:05
Yeah. Yeah. That is, uh... Look, I, like, I get it. You're in the game. It's gotta be tough. Like, this, this is- It's gotta be tough... any sport, right? Yes.
24:12
Like, you think it will, and you think you had the best view of it. You were gonna go signal back to your coach, but- Well, there was, there was the one, remember Stan Van Gundy does a great job- Siakam...
24:20
where Siakam- Yeah [laughs]... he's like, "We gotta review this," and Stan Van Gundy's like, "You fouled him three times." [laughs] Oh, that's great. Yeah, like, what are you talking about?
24:27
Like, there's nothing to, there's nothing to go review, man. Jesse Welch has a great question for you, Kelly. He says, "Hey, Kelly," 'cause you're the comeback player of the year, uh-[laughs] expert.
24:35
He said, "Hey, Kelly, in your opinion, is Nick Chubb eligible for Comeback Player of the Year this year since he came back last season but didn't actually come back to his standard of play?
24:43
Just wanted to check with a professional." He says- I'm gonna, I'm gonna go with no. [laughs] I'm gonna go with no. Yeah, am I just getting trolled at this point, Gil? Yes, 'cause you get so mad about it.
24:50
I get so mad about it. I get so mad about it. Scuba Scott: "Is today the, uh, is today too early to start discussing June win totals? If it is, when will that air?"
24:59
I'll have to discuss it by the end of the week, and, and then I have to give Kelly money to make my bet for me, 'cause I might not be here. When they, 'cause there's such a small window when the lines are out. Right.
25:09
You know, pre-flop almost. And you usually bet it at Circa, right? Right. Yeah, and I usually bet it at Circa. Like, you usually bet it at Circa. Yeah. Uh, let's see. This is, uh, by week picks.
25:17
"Listen to you guys daily at work. I thought I was the only one working today. Thanks for making my workday go faster. Keep up the great work." Thank you, bi-week picks. It's very nice of you. Um, let's see.
25:25
OPS+ is for commies. Panthers, uh, Panthers puck line parlay +607. Minnesota Frost on their way back to back, back-to-back PWHL championships. Sure. All right. See if you can parlay those two at your local book.
25:40
Uh, Edward Lefever, very happy about Paul Obadosa's win. I'm not. And then, uh, Andy Money, giving away funds? I'll DM my Venmo. No, no, no, just to Kelly so he can make my bet. I'm not just giving away funds.
25:49
I always wonder, like, how much the, how much of these books kind of track our behavior, especially Circa, right? Yeah. When it's us.
25:55
And I just walk up to the window and bet something, uh, bet something semi-big that I never bet. [laughs] Like, what their reaction is. Yeah. Like, "All right." Is this for you?
26:02
[laughs] Um, ladies and gentlemen, by the way, I should, I should point out also for the, uh, the crew, if I was gonna win this, uh, Killer Sports, uh, VSiN Challenge, my money was going to the crew, and it turns out only first and second place are in the money.
26:15
So that loss last night for me on the Pacers, sorry crew, this might not work out for us. We'll see, uh, if we can get there. But, uh, the brainchild of which was, uh, from Carl Sack, this whole contest.
26:25
He joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line at killersports.com, killercappers.com. How you doing, Carl? How you doing, Gil, Kelly? Doing very well. Let me, let, let's start.
26:36
Before we get to your thoughts on the game tonight and the game tomorrow night, let us go back to last week. Bill Krackenberg was here with me in studio. We did our hour.
26:44
We talk about all kinds of things, and he launched into something about you cannot beat NBA sides. And, um, I'll raise my hand and say I didn't, uh, I didn't refute, I didn't push back for sure on this.
26:57
This got under your skin. Explain. Well, I think, um,
27:03
probably most of your audience knows that, uh, th- the betting limits in the markets are typically, uh, correlating with how beatable, um, how beatable those markets are.
27:17
And, and this time of year, NBA sides in the playoffs, you know, you're gonna get pretty good limits. And, and I would say in general that
27:26
whether you're looking at a handicapping service to tail or you're looking to get into the industry as a better, uh, a handicapper, si- in, in all sports, sides are definitely harder to beat.
27:40
Um, they're lower EV plays in general. Um, and so I, I would agree that, you know, it, it's definitely something to be careful about. Um,
27:53
but, uh, there's, there's certainly some, some caveats and some nuances to that that make it hard to just generalize and say, "Well, you know, NBA sides can't be beat." Um,
28:05
you know, you can look at, it, it, it, d- are we talking about closing lines versus opening lines?
28:11
You know, like some of these NBA lines during, especially during the season, the opening lines, you know, overnights are just, uh, really, really weak. Um, you know, you can look into first halves, second halves.
28:23
You can, you know, if you're really paying attention and you know the sport well and you can react to injury news properly, there's plenty of opportunities to beat sides.
28:33
Um, but, uh, in, in general, I would agree that, you know, if you're an aspiring handicapper, it, it's gonna take you a few years of bumps and bruises and, and it's probably not the place to start.
28:46
Yeah, it's a, it, by the way, and again, I'll take responsibility for not sort of, you know, enabling the discussion to go further, 'cause we, we, we're random in terms of what we talk about during that hour.
28:56
But I do think where I relate to you on this is, you know, I, I've been handicapping baseball for, you know, the greater part of my life and, and tennis, uh, as well.
29:07
And, you know, you get in periods of years where you're awesome, right?
29:11
You get in periods of years where you're awesome, and then somebody tells you, "Hey, you can't beat this stuff," you're kind of like, "Hey, uh, kind of look, I kind of am," right?
29:19
Um, and so I don't think, by the way, I don't think at any point in that discussion, and Kelly will back me up on this, I don't think anybody who's listened to this show would ever think that you or an Aaron Rinning or anybody like that was in that conversation.
29:31
Now, you guys are sort of eternally accepted from that. I think, I think people who listen to this show know that. But I, I do agree with your sentiment, your overall sentiment, that it shouldn't be blanketed in any way.
29:41
Um, I, I, I would assume what Bill meant was, you know, 'cause Roxy once said to me about the NFL, right? Uh, we were at Piero's and he said to me, "No one beats the NFL, Gil. Nobody does."
29:51
And what he meant was long-term National Football League sides, and he knows from his side that nobody beats it long term, but we have handicappers that can beat it for a period of time, and maybe even an extended period of time.
30:01
So nothing is a blanket, and I do think that it's worth bringing up again.
30:05
We shouldn't have left that conversation, I shouldn't have left that conversation just sitting there, because I know, and especially, a- and, and Bill would agree with this too I think, especially when you're not the one doing the handicapping, it's a l- it's, it's, it comes off maybe as a little flippant to say it that way also for those who do, do work handicapping these games and these matches on a daily basis.
30:25
So- My apologies to you, Carl, on that. That was on me, not- No, it's all good...
30:29
yeah And I, I'll also mention, you know, nowadays with, um, with the betting exchanges and the reduced juice places, like, y- you really only, you know, if, if you're utilizing those, you really only have to hit, like, 51% to break even.
30:42
So there's a lot more opportunity. And when it comes to NFL, you know, you, you've had, uh, Warren Sharp on your program a number of times. He's really, [laughs] uh, in a, no pun intended, he is really sharp.
30:54
Um, I've, I've followed his service for a long time, and yeah, he bets a lot more totals and sides, and I do, too, as well, but, um, uh, he can beat the NFL. He can beat the NFL sides.
31:05
Y- um, he's, he's a, he's a sharp guy. What about tonight? What about tomorrow night? Today it's, uh, game four in Minnesota, at Minnesota.
31:13
Timberwolves trying to even up this series at two games a piece, OKC trying to take it back to, uh, a game five with a clinching opportunity. T-Wolves three-point dogs, total 218. Anything tonight?
31:25
You know, I would lean towards what Kelly said earlier on in the show, in that, um, if I had to go anywhere, it would be OKC bounce back.
31:33
Um, they have had their trouble on the road, and it makes sense for a younger team, and this Minnesota home court, while not a good home court during the regular season, they have definitely showed up...
31:44
Uh, the fans have definitely showed up in the playoffs, and so I worry a little bit about that. I, I think, yeah, if I had to go anywhere, it'd be OKC.
31:54
I think the, the, probably the best bet is to, is to maybe sit on the sidelines, hope that Minnesota wins again, and then really look to get involved in OKC game five.
32:06
What about tomorrow, game four, after the Pacers squander the 20-point lead and a chance to go up three to nothing? Now it's game four with the Knicks trying to get it back to Madison Square Garden.
32:16
It's basically like, "All right, we got a best of three now. Nothing's happened." Uh, Pacers trying to, though, uh, take the three to one lead.
32:23
They're gonna be two and a half point favorites, at least not gonna be, they are two and a half point favorites. 221 the total. The daunted 20-point lead, right? We, um, I was just looking at, into that this morning.
32:34
This year, they're, in the playoffs, there's been six games where a team has trailed by 20 or more and then won. It's amazing. Um- It's incredible...
32:42
we've never had more than thr- in the last 20 years, there haven't been more than three in a postseason.
32:47
We've had six this postseason, not to mention those, those three, um, Pacers games where they were down by seven or eight with 40 seconds left, and that's only happened, like, once in history.
32:57
So recency bias, I can see why people would, um, be a little bit scared of NBA sides. But, um, I, I think the Pacers are gonna bounce back. You know, I think they are the better team. I think they've shown that.
33:09
You mentioned that the line seemed short last game, and up until the fourth quarter that, that seemed like the right side.
33:16
I would expect, uh, Carlisle to make some adjustments, and I would expect that the Pacers don't shoot 20% from three-pointers again. All right, so clarify, is there a play here? Yes? Yeah.
33:27
Yeah, I would bet Indiana plus two and a half. Indiana, well, Indiana's the favorite, two and a half point favorite. I'm sorry, Indiana minus two and a half, yeah. Okay, Indiana minus two and a half. Thank you, Carl.
33:35
Appreciate it, man, as always. Hey, have a great week, guys. Carl Sack, Killer Sports, and again, thanks for that contest. We've had a ball with it, even if Fezzik does win. Sport X-
33:52
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34:20
It's Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin alongside. Do you wanna add anything to that, uh, discussion we just had? No, I thought it was j- it was just a good com- good comments by Carl, and I don't think there is...
34:28
Like, I, I think what he brought up is really interesting with, with opening lines and closing lines, and I think this year in the NBA you saw it even...
34:35
I, I, I felt they were more wildly off overnight, on overnight lines than I've ever seen maybe, maybe ever. Uh, if not, it's been years. So I, like, there's big differences in what you're able to grab on openers.
34:47
There's also, uh, you know, he's talking about limits, right? I'm not betting as much as what a Carl Sack a- and a Bill Krackomberger are, right? I'm betting most of the o- mostly overnight lines.
34:56
I'm usually getting closing line value because of that. Um, and then I'm monitoring injuries throughout the a- uh, throughout the afternoon.
35:03
It's just, I, I understand where Bill's coming from, but it's also, I mean, I've been on this show for three years now. I was crunching numbers last Thursday.
35:08
I'm just like, "All right, let me pull up my spreadsheets and see what we've done." On this show, I, I mean, I've had three straight years.
35:13
I've been on here for three years, three straight years of pre-game ATS sides- Yeah... have been winners, so it happens. You can do it. Well, you know what it, you know what it is with, with betting, right?
35:22
So again, like, three years of tennis winnings, and then as soon as it goes sideways for you, the people who show up when it goes sideways, "You suck," right? Yeah, yeah.
35:30
So it al- it, it's, it's when do you show up, who are you talking to, and there's always, no matter how much books are having...
35:37
Let, let's say books are having a great year in a particular sport, there's always someone beating it, right? Oh, correct, yeah. So you c- you can't blanket statement anything.
35:46
I probably should've done a better job of caveating that. You can't blanket statement anything, and there are people who are actually good at certain sports, right? Yeah. And I do wanna, I'll make the point again.
35:58
I don't think anybody, you know, thought that we were talking about Carl or, or Aaron, or the Aaron Rennings of the world, right? Nobody was thinking about... Or the Kelly Bidlins of the world for that matter.
36:06
We're talking about basketball. But I can see how also if it's your bread and butter, it would rub you wrong. Oh, of course. Yeah, that's- Yeah... that's all it is. Yeah. That, that's all it is. Yeah.
36:14
You're a little more- I mean, l- look, we like, we, yeah, uh, w- we gotta focus- You and Carl are a little more upset than you're even letting on. Let's put it that way. Sure. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, sure. That's fair.
36:24
All right. I think we, I think we covered it. Mm-hmm[laughs] Okay. Let's talk some base- sucks some, mm-mm. [laughs] Let's talk some baseball.
36:30
Paul, Paul Spohor joins us now, uh, from the Progressive Guest Line from Austin, Texas, where his dog Charlotte is liable to make an appearance and just chill on the couch and mock all of us with her- She's right there...
36:41
her life of leisure. [laughs] Look at her, just chilling. Uh, Paul Spohor, uh, who can be found on Twitter @spohor, and of course, courtesy of, uh, the FanGraphs website, the K- Sleeper and the Bus podcast.
36:52
Sleeper and the Bus started as a FanGraphs podcast, correct? Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, it's been there- That's what I thought... been there the whole time. I'm not the original host, though.
37:01
Well, you are the host that perfected it. How about that? How about that, Paul? Thank you. [laughs] You're very welcome. Thank you.
37:06
All right, I don't wanna belabor this point, 'cause it feels like we bring it up every other time. Okay.
37:10
But I keep r- but I have to keep bringing it up, 'cause it just keeps getting more unbelievable and more, and, and worse and worse. The Colorado Rockies, let's just take May. [laughs] Let's just take May.
37:21
They have five games left in May. Their run differential for May alone is minus 94. Their run- [laughs] Their run differential for the season is minus 170.
37:31
The record, modern MLB history record, so we're not talking, like, you know, teams from the 1800s. Right. The 1932 Boston Red Sox had a minus 349 run differential when all was said and done. These Rockies are on pace
37:49
for a minus 519.6 run differential. Uh, they are also on pace, you know, the on pace game, for 27.54 wins. Is that good? This is not, not optimal. Not. [laughs] It's not optimal. Great, Bob.
38:06
And we thought the White Sox were just the bottom of the barrel last, last year. Right. Um,
38:12
you, uh, so, so Jason Weingarten pre-flop, before the season started, he was like, "Rockies over," and he's, he's definitely done the mea culpa on that. What's, I'll ask you what w- Will asked me. Will Hill asked me.
38:23
A couple weeks ago he said, "What's the number it would take for you to go to a sportsbook and bet them on the over?" And a couple weeks ago I said 45 and a half.
38:31
If you ask me that now, it can't be 45 and a half anymore. And so I ask you, maybe, maybe one of the, the last folks who are like, "No, these fi- teams figure it out. They win a certain number of games."
38:42
What is the number for you that it would take for you to bet a in- Oh, man... in-season adjusted win total over? I, I, I gotta be honest that that 45 and a half would at least catch my eye.
38:52
But I'm with you that, like, it, it wouldn't be a snap bet, where usually, you know, when you're talking, like, April and we see whatever teams are struggling in April, if I saw anything beginning with a four,
39:03
I'd bet the house on the over, right? Because it'd be overreaction to the early season. It's Memorial Day. [laughs] It's June later this week. Yeah. Or, or early next, I should say. Yeah.
39:15
I guess Sunday, however you determine the end or beginning of the week, whatever. You get my point. Like, we're not early anymore. So yeah, I think you do need to bring it down to maybe 40, 40, 40 and a half.
39:28
Oh, I, I think there's a three. Uh. I think there's a three that it has to be now. You think it has to be a three? I do. I don't know, man. I just, I still have such- I see... a hard time with it.
39:36
Now- This is why I ask you- Go ahead... because I know you, you maintain that old school, like that fabric- Yes...
39:41
that fiber where you're just like, "No, it cannot, they cannot lose that, they cannot win that few games." I just- But we just saw it last year. Yeah. So I do need to be a little bit more open to it, right?
39:49
Be, like, and I wanna balance being open to it, 'cause we just saw it last year, with not overreacting to it, but oh man, maybe you're right.
39:57
Maybe it has to be a high threes that before we even start to reach for the wallet at that point. Well, yeah, before you start to reach for the wallet. Because, and, and I did make this point with Will also, though.
40:08
Let me also just couple it by saying, can you think of a worse bet to make in all of sports than subjecting yourself to an in- [laughs]... in-season over on the Colorado Rockies?
40:19
Like, let's say you've got a 35 and a half. No. Let's just say, 35 and a half, and you're like, "Over." Just to live through that the rest of the summer. Just have to follow them. Yeah. Ugh. To, like, maybe watch them.
40:30
You know, we play a game on the Sleeper and the Bus, uh, a, a couple times a year called, uh, Congressman or Reliever, because as the season goes, a lot of these, like, random relievers will come up.
40:40
And, you know, even, uh, us who follow baseball all the time are like- [laughs]... "Who the hell is this guy? Who is this guy?" Congressman. Uh, you could do that with so much of the Rockies roster right now.
40:51
Carson Palmquist, does he represent y'all's district, or is he pitching for the Rockies today? You don't know. [laughs] You don't know for sure which that is.
41:00
Um, yeah, no, this team is so impossibly bad, and here's the really tough part. If you are thinking of going for an over this year, there's no cavalry coming. Right. There's nothing coming to improve this team.
41:14
You know, I've been telling White Sox fans, "There's light at the end of the tunnel. There's things that will get better. You know, they've made some amazing trades. They've got some good prospects.
41:22
They're, you know, they're bad again this year, but they're not comically bad quite to the degree of last year's team, and they're gonna get better." I got nothing for Rockies fans. You got a cool u- uniform.
41:34
I like purple, and I like their uniform. Uh, and you got a cool stadium. And that's it. [laughs] There's a couple good players on the team. Cool uniform.
41:42
Ezequiel Tovar, Hunter Goodman, but that, that team sucks out loud, dude. It is so impossibly bad.
41:48
[laughs] And four te- you know, the, the, this happened to the White Sox last year, too, where the division beat up on them, of course, but it elevated some teams. That's why the Central sent so many teams. This is
42:00
three powerhouses and a really good Giants team. And I know they've been playing like a powerhouse. I don't quite have them in the powerhouse status. But I have Dodgers, Padres, and Diamondbacks.
42:07
I think they're all powerhouse capable in terms of their talent. So they're just getting bludgeoned all the time.
42:14
The Rockies should be thanking the schedule gods that they, that they went to a little bit more of a balanced schedule Or they might only win 25 games this year As we were speaking here, I went to FanDuel Oh my God.
42:26
I was like, "Is Gil doing the same thing I'm doing right now?" [laughs] I went to FanDuel to say like, you know, we're sure speculating what actually is. Yeah, uh, yeah. What's the win total?
42:31
What actually is the Colorado Rockies win total? Why has Gil or Kelly not brought it up? Do, do, do you know how many teams are in Major League Baseball, Paul? And he guessed 30, right? The last I checked.
42:40
There, there are 30, yes. Yes. 29 are listed. They do not list the Rockies. They don't even wanna list it. Hey, guess what, Gil. Huh? I went to two other books, right? Yeah.
42:46
I saw that and I was like, "Well, [laughs] okay. Like-" Never mind... that's a little silly." Yeah. But let me go check. DraftKings doesn't h- DraftKings and MGM don't have win totals up right now. No, I saw that.
42:54
I saw that at DraftKings. Nobody, nobody has them up. Cowards. Cowards. [laughs] Yeah. That's right, cowards. Are we sleeping on Memorial Day? Are we being cowards? What is this? Cowards. FanDuel's going with cowards.
43:03
Uh, I love it. It's coward hour. Spore coming out with the c- cowards. Uh, all right, DFS on Memorial Day, full day baseball. What do you got? Not a full day, Gil. Not every team is playing today.
43:13
Don't get me started on that on a holiday, drives me absolutely bonkers. But anyway- Yeah, it's stupid... a lot of pitching to go with today that you can go a bunch of different ways.
43:21
You can go against the aforementioned Carson Palmquist facing the Cubs. That's gonna be a lot of offense. Jack Kahanowitz, uh, gonna get beat up by the Yankees.
43:28
There's where you want your offense, your Yankees and your Cubs. Pretty standard. Pitching wise, love Garrett Crochet. He's been amazing this year. Clay Holmes going against those White Sox.
43:36
Again, light at the end of the tunnel for them, but not that bright of a light. Clay Holmes is gonna dice them up. I like Ryan Nelson quite a bit against the Pirates.
43:44
He should be a bit cheaper than your Crochets, your Clay Holmeses. Lots of different angles that you can go at today. Don't sleep on Ryan Weathers in a revenge game.
43:51
If you really wanna get a zig, the Padres are not hitting that well. Like, they're still a good team, I put them in that powerhouse category, but Ryan Weathers might get them today with the Marlins.
44:00
Yeah, full day Major League Baseball, but not full league- Right... Major League Baseball, as Paul says. Insane. Six, six teams not playing today.
44:06
By the way, we got Eric Biggio and Caesars coming in and dunking on all the other books. 39 and a half, they got it up right now with the under. There it is. Under 39. There is a three. There we go. 39 and a half.
44:16
I can't do it. I couldn't bet over on that. I couldn't. I don't think I could either. [laughs] 35 and a half, we start to think about it. Can't do it. Thank you, Paul. Have a good one, guys. Take care. You too.
44:26
Paul Spore, everybody, @spore. We'll come back. Wes Reynolds on the other side. The Pacers, golf, and more next on The Numbers Game at Visa, the sports betting network.
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