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May 27, 2024
A Numbers Game | May 27, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | May 27, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
[electronic music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, visa.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Midlin- Hey... on this, on this Memorial Day 2024.
0:22
Everybody's got their bunting out for baseball. Baseball not with the full schedule somehow on Memorial Day. I don't know why they don't have the full schedule anymore. Yeah. They really should. It's odd.
0:30
It's 11 games, but it's not the 15 that we used to, uh, uh, be accustomed to. Uh, on the show today, Jay Cohn on the NHL playoffs. Get ready NHL, you're about to take center stage for a long time, feels like.
0:43
Um, and we'll talk to Mike Somich at the end of the show today. We'll take some, uh, we'll have a baseball break with Mark Borchert here coming up momentarily. Uh, Kelly, June 6th, that is when the NBA finals begins.
0:56
It is set in stone. It is not this Thursday, it is next Thursday. That is 10 days from now. We potentially, potentially could be done with the conference finals tomorrow night. Yep. That would be a nine-day
1:11
rest until an NBA finals, which they set in stone. You and I were talking about this off air before the show.
1:17
They set that in stone, um, maximize advertising dollars to make sure that there's no rest disparity for one team or the other heading into the NBA finals. But it does seem like this is becoming more normal.
1:30
Um, there has never been two conference sweeps in the history of the NBA playoffs. Last year was the closest we got, where the Nuggets swept the Lakers. Pretty competitive as far as sweeps go.
1:42
Yeah, it's very much like [laughs] like these two series right now, yeah. That's right. Like, like the Mavericks-T'Wolves.
1:47
Um, the, the Nuggets swept the Lakers, and if you recall, the Heat were on the cusp of sweeping the Celtics until the Celtics forced a game seven, and then the Heat smoked them at the Garden. Yep.
1:58
By the way, uh, if you're wondering how many best of sevens in the entirety of the NBA playoffs have ever gotten to a game seven like Boston did to Miami last year, the answer is, Kelly, I have that. You ready for this?
2:14
Boop-boop-boop-boop-boop. Only four teams out of 154 occurrences have ever even forced a game seven. Now let me ask you this. Wait, say that, say that stat again. So 154 times in the history of the NBA, there have been
2:30
three to nothing leads. Okay. Okay. That was a three nothing lead. Right. Yeah. Okay. So to force a game seven happened four times. To force a game seven after a three to nothing lead. Okay.
2:37
Only four times has it happened, and one of those was Boston getting Miami to a home court game seven last year. And then Miami- But zero times has that, yeah.
2:45
[laughs] But zero times, O and four in those four games, to actually get the four-game comeback.
2:53
Um, so I, I ask you to begin the show, and by the way, this is the, a reminder for the old schoolers out there, 'cause those of us of a certain age re- re- getting back to the NBA finals,
3:02
for the last decade we've been back to a two-two-one-one-one format, just like the rest of the playoffs. From 1985, Kelly, to 2014,
3:12
the NBA playoffs switched, if you remember, to a two-three-two, and the reason for that was in the '80s, Boston and LA were such stalwart dynasties that David Stern at some point decided, you know what?
3:24
Was it David Stern or Larry O'Brien? I think it was David Stern by that time.
3:26
Uh, decided we're gonna go two-three-two because the travel is such between Boston and LA, coast to coast, and inevitably one team on each coast is gonna get there, that we ought to minimize the travel by the time the NBA finals gets around.
3:39
Um, Adam Silver, when he took over for, uh, for David Stern, was like, "Yeah, let's just go back to two-two-one-one-one," 'cause it's not always gonna be coast, coastal teams. Yeah.
3:49
Uh, that was always one and two where they... It, it wasn't as fair, right?
3:53
You steal one of those, if you're the, if you're the team with three home games, if you steal one of those first two, you got a chance to close it out on your home court. I thought that as well.
4:01
I thought that it somehow swung a strange advantage to the team- Yeah... without home court advantage because of that format. Okay, so we have Dallas 3-0 over Minnesota.
4:11
Congratulations to you 'cause you got those Dallas futures tickets. We obviously have Boston three to nothing over Indie, or over Indiana, in a series where Indiana did not have Tyrese Haliburton for game three.
4:21
We don't know if he's gonna be available quite yet for game four. But Indiana could very easily be up two to one in this series. Mm-hmm.
4:29
And then the Dallas-Minnesota series, they've all been competitive, but, you know, I was texting, uh, Felika and Will yesterday. I was like, "Well, Luka and, Luka and, uh, Kyrie gonna do their thing down the stretch.
4:38
You know it's coming, right?" And Minnesota could be up 3-0, though. Like, they could be legit be up 3-0. So, so, so this is my question. So in the Indiana case, right?
4:47
Getting back to the format things we were just talking about, five and seven are still in Boston. So even if you can picture Tyrese comes back, they get game four- Yeah...
4:53
you still got two games on the road, even though obviously the Heat, uh, you know, s- stu- stubbed their noses at that last year. Um, in the case of Minnesota and Dallas, if you s- if you can steal game four- Yeah.
5:07
Yeah... you still get five and seven at home, and it is a kind of shifting of pressure in a really weird way to Dallas. No, I, I, I hear you. I think that was a- So could it happen, is the question. It's-
5:21
Do we have a puncher's chance or no? I mean, look, I got, you know I got Mavericks futures tickets, and it's, you could tell me that it's, I'm safe. 154 and 0 is the history, right? Yep. I'm good.
5:32
It doesn't, I, I'm not feeling that way yet. I think that's more of a bettor's mindset, right? Although these have cashed. Like, I, I'm not thinking that way yet.
5:39
Um, but I will say as, as someone holding Mavericks futures tickets, oh boy, did game two and game three both feel huge. I mean, all, I mean, all three games, right?
5:50
But to steal one of those ga- or, you know, to beat Minnesota in Minnesota on a Luka Dončić last second shot, to steal a win there.
5:59
And then, I mean, when Minnesota kind of surged back in that game l- last night and, and, and then Kyrie and Luka took over in clutch time were just amazing as they have been all series. I, same thing, right?
6:10
Like, just to be able to walk out of there with a wi- with a win in a very, very tight game felt massive because, because of that, right? If, you steal one or two in Dallas, it's a brand new series all over again.
6:21
Indiana 90 to 1 to come all the way back again. We don't know about Tyrese. Games five and seven will be in Boston. I'm looking at a book where Minnesota is south of 12 to 1. Is that... Are you serious on this?
6:34
You gotta shop around for these obviously, but [laughs] I'm looking at one where they're south of 12 to 1 to come all the way back. Okay, whatever. That's not a good price.
6:42
Um- I don't even think DraftKings has it posted. Oh, no, I'm so- I'm looking at it- Yeah... uh, in a certain spot here. [laughs] Yeah. Um. DraftKings doesn't even have the Pacers-Celtics series priced up. Yeah. I, uh...
6:52
Let me just ask you this. And yes, Timberwolves 10 to 1. Yeah, like, whoa, really? Yeah. That's all you're giving me? Yeah, that's all you're getting. It's 0 and 154. 0 and 154. All you're getting is 10 to 1. 10 to 1.
7:03
Yeah, that doesn't seem like a good bet today. What do you think? And like Karl-Anthony Towns seems to have forgotten how to play basketball. Okay. So most of you... You and me were...
7:09
You were, you and I were texting yesterday. And I think it started by me saying, "Has there ever been," and yes, we're gonna bring this up one more time, 'cause I haven't brought it up in a couple weeks.
7:19
Has there ever been an award given to a player, I'm talking about Rudy Gobert winning Defensive Player of the Year, that was so quickly and resoundingly and repeatedly shown to be utter nonsense
7:33
as it has in this postseason? Like, the people who voted for Gobert, I'm not talking about them admitting it publicly. Yeah. I'm talking about when it's them and their pillow- Right...
7:42
as they sit and their final thoughts of the day. They have to know this is, this is a sham, right? Yeah, you would think so. Y- y- you would think so.
7:49
I, I think this, this series, like, I mean, again, we were texting all this yesterday, but I... Like, this series goes even beyond that to me because it's...
7:57
You're talking Coach of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, best defensive team by a... We- remember, we talked about this for a series. I brought it up multiple times. The defensive ratings at the r- regular season.
8:09
The difference between where Minnesota was and the second-best team was the same difference between second and 13th. Yeah. That's how good Minnesota was all year. They got that going for them team defense-wise.
8:21
The Defensive Player of the Year that we all gave a lot of credit for the team defense to, right? Coach of the Year, and they're getting dismantled- They are... by the same offensive action that all- They are...
8:31
that Kyrie and Luka are running time and time again. There are no adjustments. There have not been adjustments. Uh, it's- T- they've, they've tried things, Gil. It's... Nothing's working. Nothing is working.
8:40
But it, it shows that, like, Gobert, okay, you're a great rim protector, but you can't do anything else, as Luka so clearly showed also. Like, can't, definitely can't put him on an island one-on-one with those guys.
8:50
Oh my gosh. At the, at the end of game two, the m- the greatest example of that, um, as he just floundered trying to keep up with Luka.
8:57
By the way, those post-game interviews with Kyrie after game one and Luka after game two were some of the greatest television interviews you'll ever see after a game, where both Luka and Kyrie sort of sheepishly when asked about, you know, "How do you, how do you fight this defense?"
9:12
And they both kind of with like a wry smile quietly, "Well, we take what w- what, uh, you know, we just adjust to what they give us." Luka even came out and s- [laughs] and said, "Oh, I'm not doing very well right now.
9:23
I'm not very," uh, I don't know if he said fast in his, in his somewhat broken English, whatever it is. "I'm faster than him though." Yeah, yeah. Um, and- Chris Finch, Coach of the Year nominee. Nominee, sorry.
9:32
Yeah, he didn't win it. Dags. Sorry, go ahead. Dags won. Yeah. Um, so I just... Y- y- yes, he's a good rim defender, but, like, the s- the, the drop-down defense and the constant alley-oops.
9:42
What was that stat we gave, uh, after game two? Which was, remember, at halftime of game two, the T-Wolves were outscoring the Mavericks at the half from behind the arc 33 to 6. Yep, yep. But they were only up three.
9:57
Why? We said this last week. Because they have 10 dunks. So it's like... And, and, and now, okay, let's just throw this in the mix, 'cause I wanna just sort of think. I mean, does Minnesota have a shot here? Lively.
10:10
We don't know. I- that's huge. That's huge, right? That is huge. Huge. So that takes away some of that. Yes.
10:15
The adjustment that the Thunder had made against the, uh, the Mavericks was will actually crunch Luka and Kyrie. If you can beat us, you have to beat us with threes.
10:25
And you and I were talking about PJ Washington did, right? Yes, yeah. And those guys did. But we were talking about how someh- in, in our basketball viewing and basketball analyst brain,
10:35
okay, if you beat them by the three, we all get it. I don't even care if it's wide open.
10:40
But there is something so laughably ridiculous about getting beaten by 10 lobs and alley-oops, right, where you dunk it over them every time. I mean, I think that as a viewer and a fan- Gil...
10:51
I, I would think if you're playing on the court, it's gotta be even worse. I, I mean, [laughs] we were talking about it. Like, if...
10:57
By the third time I've had a lob thrown on me, like, I'd be, I'd be tackling guys running, run- Just hug them. Hug them... yeah, yeah, hugging a, hugging these centers running towards the basket. Here's...
11:06
I s- I saw this stat this morning from ESPN. Mavs have 48 alley-oop dunks this postseason. Rest of the NBA combined, 59. Yeah. Says a lot. I mean, it's, it's...
11:16
They're, they're doing it time and time again over Rudy Gobert. I, it's, it's wild. And again, talking, talking about adjustments. They adjusted offensively to that.
11:25
'Cause it's not like the Mavs were playing all season like that, right? Mm-mm. A, a, a little bit more since the All-Star break. Right. But no, not to this level. Um, we'll talk more about this. Largely based on how
11:36
I have... A- anything that might have been right by me was torpedoed by injury, and then all the other stuff was just wrong. And then I'll ask about the final weekend of the regular season. Baseball break next, though.
11:46
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12:03
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12:23
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12:49
[laughs] That's VSiN.com/subscribe. Kelly had a migraine yesterday. You all right, man? Yeah. Yeah, anybody who has chronic migraines, fun weekend. Laid out for two days. Here's what I want to know. At a time.
13:01
Do, do you kn- I, I asked you this, but I, I think for public discourse on it. Do you, do you know that they're coming? No. No, it's always the worst part. I, like I was telling you, like, you, you think...
13:12
But whenever you get them, like I think back on things. Like I don't like... I, I never have any hunger, like, during them, so you don't eat, like, before it comes on and like that.
13:19
Like, when I was feeling it, like kind of Friday night, I wa- I was like thinking back. I'm like, "Oh yeah, I haven't really eaten anything all day. No duh." No duh. No duh.
13:27
And like the problem is, like for so many people who deal with this stuff, like it's, they know exact- they know what I'm talking about.
13:31
Like you, you can't really sleep, but you're exhausted, and the problem is the longer they go on, the worse that gets, right? So like you haven't slept, so you're more tired, but you can't sleep.
13:41
Um, so it's, uh, yeah, it's fun. It's fun. Yeah. Um- Sitting in a dark, quiet room, yeah. Glad you're feeling better. Thanks, man. Um, okay, let me get my tennis picks real quick here because- Yeah...
13:52
there's rain, so the French Open began yesterday, uh, in Paris. There has been rain on and off yesterday, today. There will be rain on and off, you ready for this? All the way until Friday.
14:03
So this isn't gonna be frustrating at all. So we have a couple matches still that, uh, have not, uh, started yet today. I don't know if they will during the show. I don't know if they will after. You know how this goes.
14:13
Uh, but I do on the men's side have Thiago Monteiro. Uh, Thiago Monteiro is a Brazilian clay court specialist. He is a coin flip right now. I, I mean, last night, again, all these picks are at VSiN.com/picks.
14:27
Every host, every guest, every sport, every pick is on at VSiN.com/picks for subscribers. So last night I gave out Monteiro against, uh, Miomir Kecmanović at minus 104.
14:39
He's minus 109 right now, so you could still play him. He's a coin flip. But, uh, Monteiro is the play. Remember, those are best of five.
14:45
And on the ladies' side, the ladies' side, I, I still have, I have a big dog still to come, and that is in the person of Victoria Tomova. Victoria Tomova. Um, Victoria Tomova is yet to start. She is a...
15:02
I, I got her at a plus one. Looking what her, for what her price is right now, and I am not seeing her up on this board. Tomova... Oh, it's started. It's started, and she's already broken Alexandrova, and she's plus 198.
15:16
Ugh. Again- Ugh... this is, you don't know with the rain and the start and stop, but this again was on, uh, VSiN.com/picks. She has, by the way, she has not broken. She is, she has a break point.
15:28
She's up one-love against Ekaterina Alexandrova. So we'll see. So she has not broken yet. Um, but she's, uh, up one, one-love early in that one. So that one did start.
15:38
So Thiago Monteiro is the only one that has not started yet. Dumb twen- uh, tennis question for you. Feels like this hap- uh, do they get a lot of rain this time of year? I was just thinking that.
15:46
It feels like this happens often, like during the French Open. Uh, if, I, I don't know if I'm- Like and I don't know if it's the rainy season- Yeah... in Paris. Like I have no idea. Tomova breaks her right there.
15:57
I don't know if that's a, if I'm remembering that incorrectly, but it sure felt, it feels that way recently. Just like the same way that we were talking about the NBA Finals and- Yeah...
16:07
this break between the Conference Finals and the NBA Finals because it happened the way it happened last year, and the, we actually got saved from a long break, but we might have had it.
16:16
And this year it looks like we might get it. Remember there was a Warriors year? Wasn't there a Warriors championship year where the break between the Conference Finals and the Finals was just endless?
16:25
Um, 'cause I think it was a 4-1 maybe. Um- Yeah, that's where it, it's become, it, it's become like it, it feels like it's a thing every year. Yeah. You're like, "Okay." And I don't know if that's- The way to win...
16:35
'cause we're so immersed in it or whatever. Yeah, I don't know. Um, back to the NBA for a second. So the, uh, I was saying before the break, I feel like this entire playoffs, like there's some things.
16:46
We're, we're gonna talk about the Guardians coming up at the top of the hour. You know how much I'm into tennis, you're into golf.
16:51
And then there's some things where I'm clear to say, well, I've, I've gotten, I've either gotten everything wrong or everything that could've been right got torpedoed by injuries. So right?
17:00
Like I thought Jimmy Butler was gonna, you know, give the Celtics hell again in the first round, he got hurt. Uh, I thought Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers were gonna give them hell.
17:10
They probably should be up two to one, but H- Haliburton got hurt, right? The Celtics have just gotten the royal flush of injuries. It's insane. So there, so there's that stuff.
17:17
But then there's also, I am still stunned by the Nuggets blowing that 20-point lead last week. Like it's, it's been eight days and it still has left a mark. [laughs] Yeah, yeah. Honestly. I hear you.
17:27
It completely destroyed the NBA playoffs for me, 'cause I was like, "I can't process it." And then the T'Wolves go out and they're down three to nothing to the Mavericks.
17:35
Um, and then I also called, by the way, the, the hits keep coming. I also called that Nuggets-T'Wolves series the NBA Finals, right? So I was like, "Whoever comes out of this- Yeah, yeah. Same vibe...
17:43
wins the NBA Finals." Yep. So I say all this with the, with that backdrop of I'm trying to make sense of it all, and I'm trying to, I'm trying to sort of contextualize it.
17:56
That last weekend of the NBA regular season- Something happened in the Eastern Conference, something happened in the Western Conference. Remember, in the Eastern Conference, Cleveland purposely tanked, right?
18:05
They looked at the scoreboard, they saw Milwaukee was losing. That meant whatever seed they got was on their racket.
18:12
And they knew that if they ended up with the number two seed, if they beat, uh, Charlotte, it was the Hornets they were playing, right?
18:19
If they beat Charlotte on that final Sunday, they would be the number two seed, and they would have to play Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers, who would land in the seven seed.
18:27
So they purposely lost, and they're like, "Nah, we're gonna get a home series against the Orlando Magic. We need to win a playoff series, 'cause we got crunched last year by the Knicks." They did that.
18:37
They ended up winning in seven. Mazel tov to the Cleveland Cavaliers, okay? But what that ended up doing is- Donovan Mitchell's still gonna leave you losers [laughs] He's still gonna leave you [laughs] See? Losers.
18:46
JB Bickerstaff, you still lost your job. Sorry about that. I love you, Dad. Um, okay. So what would've happened had they decided to play it out correct or, or, or, um, kosher way, right? Wow, okay.
18:58
They would've ended up as the number two seed. Yep. They would've played Philly. Let's say Philly wins. Philly gets Boston in round two. Does the whole East change?
19:08
Or would it, or do we have to factor in Embiid's injuries would've happened anyway, and it wouldn't have changed? Maybe it would've, maybe it didn't.
19:14
Denver, Friday night, two nights before that, squandered the big lead to the Spurs. Remember, uh- Yeah... uh, Wem- Wembanyama- Yeah, yeah... had 34 points that night. Crazy game.
19:26
He had 34 points that night, and I wanna say he had, like, a stretch of 17 points in three minutes. Like, we... That game got lost while we were talking about Defensive Player of the Year. Yeah.
19:36
He was just this offensive juggernaut in that game. So the Nuggets end, don't end up with the number one seed. They end up number two. OKC ends up with number one.
19:44
If the Nuggets had held onto that lead and gotten the number one seed, then they end up playing the Mavericks in round two. Does that end up being completely different?
19:56
I ask all of this because as I try to make sense of it all, I'm wondering, has the NBA gotten to the point where it is so matchup specific- Yeah...
20:06
that that ought to be our biggest handicapping factor in all of this, and we can no longer...
20:11
There's no team that is so dominant, like the Jordan Bulls, like the Celtics and Lakers of the '80s, like the Bad Boys Pistons. W- pick your, like, like this, like the Curry/Klay. Let's be more modern.
20:21
The Curry/Klay Warriors were the biggest dynasty of them all. Is there no team that is that dominant anymore, that y- that that has to be your only handicap now is who are they gonna end up playing?
20:32
I think this is a great question, because yes, I think that, or great topic, 'cause I think yes, that we have gotten...
20:38
It w- it has come so far to that point, but I think what you're seeing right now in this Mavericks-Timberwolves series is stars still matter. Like, the, the- Stars still matter... Luka Dončić- Yes...
20:51
and Kyrie Irving in, in, look, I, in full transparency, this was, I thought, I, I have Mavericks tickets. It's, I, I did hedge. I thought Timberwolves were gonna have a leg up in this series.
21:01
The defense had been that good all year round. On the perimeter, at the rim, has been so superior, I thought they had the advantage here.
21:08
But we did say before the series started, the floor is so high for the Mavericks when you have those two players, and that is proven to matter more.
21:17
And I, and we laughed about the way I said it caveman-wise on, like, Friday or Thursday, Luka offense better than [laughs] than Rudy Gobert defense, okay? Like- Not even a doubt. Luka offense better.
21:26
[laughs] Defense, Timberwolves defense bad. Exactly [laughs] That's right.
21:29
Like, it just, when you have those type of players to fall back on, and especially, I mean, we're talking about the fourth quarters are where they are winning every- Every game... single one of these games.
21:38
All these games come down to that in that series. And they have been absolute stars when they've needed to be stars. And Karl-Anthony Towns cannot be found. Nope.
21:46
And Anthony Edwards is exhausted or just figuring out how to play in this series in game three. Yeah. He had a, he, he, he showed up last night late. He, he was, he was fine. Yeah. He was fine.
21:55
Uh, that- But you know, he's not Michael Jordan, so let's shut up about that But that point you made, though, also, is that basketball ultimately- Right...
22:01
unlike, unlike, uh, football, which is the most, you know, team of all team sports, um, basketball ultimately is five players on a, on a court. And if you have the best couple players, that can still take over.
22:16
Now, as, as you've kind of hinted a lot these first 30 minutes, we got a long way to talk about the NBA Finals. Yeah. But, uh, Dallas gonna have that same advantage going into Boston.
22:26
And the Celtics opened at minus 280 in a hypothetical series against the Mavericks now? Oh, we're gonna talk about those numbers, 'cause they've moved. Yeah, they've moved.
22:35
And they should have moved, 'cause how the, what kind of number was that? Why do, why does the market, why do people believe in this team so much? I do not get it. Baseball with Borchardt next.
22:45
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23:49
Skill Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin, live from Bar Canada at the Deep, Bar Canada, The Barrage, on A Numbers Game, brought to you by DraftKings.
23:57
Um, Kelly, a baseball story on this Memorial Day, courtesy of Tim Lawson, who is, uh, the host of A Better, uh, A Better's Life. Or, excuse me, The B- A Better Life. Was it Better Life?
24:09
His podcast, that he no longer does now, by the way. Right. Um, he also, of course, is a bit of a, uh, beating the book podcast historian. Um, and Tim sent this along. This is from El- uh, this is Elmer Gedeon.
24:23
Does the name Elmer Gedeon mean anything to you? Elmer Gedeon had only played five games with the Washington Senators when he was drafted into the military during World War II.
24:33
He trained to be a pilot in the Army Air Forces and f- and, uh, flew B-26 bombers in Europe. Lieutenant Gedeon told the press, quote, "I'll be back in baseball after the war."
24:45
On April 20th, 1944, Gedeon was flying a mission when his plane was hit by anti-aircraft flak and crashed over France. He was initially reported as missing in action, but eventually was pronounced dead.
24:57
Of the more than 500 major league players who served in the military during World War II, only Gedeon and one other were killed in action. Elmer Gedeon, laid to rest in Section 34 of Arlington National Cemetery.
25:09
We honor his service. A little baseball, uh, historical note on this Memorial Day, courtesy of Tim Lawson. Yeah, great stuff from Tim.
25:16
And, uh, as always, on Memorial Day, thank you to all the servicemen out, uh, and women out there and, you know, all those that, like that right there, that paid the ultimate sacrifice. Absolutely.
25:24
Um, Memorial Day was always a day of full baseball, bunting, uh, in the rafters. We don't get full baseball, we get 11 games today. Mark Borchardt is here to help us along on this Memorial Day. How you doing, Mark?
25:36
I'm doing good, Gil.
25:37
Yeah, that's, that's, that's an interesting story about Memorial Day, and I think it's, uh, important that we keep that in mind that, you know, people actually have died so that we can enjoy what we enjoy in the United States, in- including bet- you know, doing things like betting on baseball, which real, real, uh, real first world problems, Gil.
25:53
Hey, you're absolutely right. You're absolutely right.
25:55
Before we get to today's slate, let me, and then, and your plays, let me ask you, obviously, the big news in baseball yesterday, you know, besides The Guardian's surge to try to get May, which we'll get into later.
26:05
Ronald Acuña Jr., uh, devastating news yesterday. Non-contact injury between second and third base in the Braves game, in their eight to one win over the Pirates at PNC Park yesterday.
26:16
Um, 2021, remember his right knee crumpled out in right field when he was making a play. This was just like a delayed steal, and his left knee crumpled, full blown out of the knee. He's out for the season.
26:28
And I'm just curious, you know, uh, if you could quantify that for us, and I'll go straight to a betting market on this specifically. Uh, this is the Braves to miss the playoffs is still 16 to one.
26:44
Is that a bet or is that an overreaction if we bet that? I, I think it's an over-- I think it's an overreaction. I think that team's pretty deep.
26:51
Um, and it's interesting that he's out because I was watching that game yesterday and, and they didn't know during the game.
26:58
So it's gonna, it's gonna make the projections completely different, uh, him, him being out of the lineup. Not, maybe not completely different, but it's gonna definitely, uh, bring their win percentage down.
27:10
And I, I just... I haven't taken him out of the, of the, uh, the Monte Carlo simulations right now. But I, I think that that, that seems pretty high to me, just, uh, based on with him in the lineup.
27:21
Uh, I've got them still winning the division, you know, with him in the lineup, like, 82% of the time. So, uh, I think his, his base runs are like, uh, like, six and a half or something.
27:30
So you gotta, you gotta figure you're gonna, they're gonna lose a couple base runs from, from one of the lineup spots. So it's not gonna be as, I think, severe as, as...
27:39
I mean, you know, he's got a big name, so people are gonna, gonna react to it, uh, obviously, and it, it does add, add some probability there.
27:46
But, uh, you know, without taking him out of the lineup and putting in a, a replacement player, I, I wouldn't know, Gil. What was the percentage of time you had them winning the division?
27:56
This is with him in there, uh, 80%. I mean, uh, they still have really good parts, like, that Chris Sale's really good, Max Fried, and then their bullpen's still top five.
28:06
And if you look at, like, Ozuna and Olsen, Olsen, um, like, he's still around six base runs created, a- and that's taking in, like, I think he's got, like, 200 or 215 plate appearances.
28:18
So part of this season, people are really down on Matt Olsen, like, "What's he do- what's wrong with him?" Well, the guy's got a 110 weighted runs created plus, so it's not exactly like he's, he's be- he's totally awful.
28:29
It's just he's down from last year. So again, that's a really high standard. Like, when you have a 110 weighted runs created plus and people are like, "What's wrong with Matt Olsen?"
28:37
Uh, that's kind of a high standard to, to hold, Gil. Yeah. And, and again, that's, that's the difference between baseball. As big of a name as Acuña is, and, and he's the MVP, right, from last year.
28:47
Uh, they don't get any better than Acuña, but he is one player in a baseball team despite that, as great as he is. Still 18 to one. What did I say? 18 to one?
28:56
Yeah, 16 to one, pardon me, to miss the playoffs, and only plus 120 to win the division. Like, it's, it d- it's not like they became a massive dog.
29:04
Philly, Philly incrementally higher at minus 150, the Braves at plus 120.
29:08
I know you can't feel good about it if you have Braves division tickets after what's happened with he and Strider, but the point being the market didn't go crazy, I guess. Uh, I sent you a bunch of other division odds.
29:20
Was there anything else that stuck out to you? Yeah, there's a lot of things that I like [chuckles] actually. Um, I, I like the Twins to win that division.
29:30
I mean, they're plus 340, and I've got them winning 60% of the time. I... They're, they're pitching that, that relief, the bullpen's best in baseball and has been all year.
29:39
And then, you know, Pablo Lopez, Paddock, uh, Joe Ryan, uh, Bailey Ober. I mean, they're, they're not lighting up the world, but they still...
29:46
If you just look at strikeout percentage, walk percentage, and ground ball rate, they're, they're so- they're a, they're a solid rotation, Gil.
29:52
So, uh, I know you, I know Cleveland, yeah, your bets with Cleveland's looking really good for May. Out of-- what kind of price did you get on, by the way, for, with, with that Cleveland bet? That's a, like, good bet.
30:02
That's, they're, they're right there, right? 20 wins right now? Uh, no, not quite 20 wins, but the March, April, it was 65 to one famously. Uh- N- no, I'm talking about... D- don't you have it for May right now?
30:12
Yeah, and May. Yeah, yeah.
30:13
I- And May, and May was 16 to one And really, you know, part of that plays into what you just said about the Twins, which is, you know, the biggest part of that handicap is who are they playing?
30:23
And the reason that I made the bets in both March, April, and in May is because the Guardian schedule is just so easy in both, and so that plays into your hands as well, right?
30:32
'Cause obviously we don't really pay attention to strength of schedule this early in a baseball season typically, but Cleveland moving forward, because of who they've played in March, April, and May, they're gonna have a top 10 hardest schedule in all of baseball the rest of the way.
30:44
So that helps your, your Twins thought out as well. Yeah, no, I looked at that, and by like 20 wins in May, they won nine straight. I'm like, "You're, you're looking pretty sweet on that one."
30:53
I mean, j- I mean, it's he- hedge time maybe, but I don't know. And then, and then, and then another, another bet that I like are the Orioles to win the, uh, we'll stay with the American League.
31:01
Uh, the Am- the American League, uh, I have given them 66% of the time winning that division minus 202, and, uh, I just think they have better pitching than the Yankees do.
31:12
And if you look at the Yankees, you know, they've, they've, they're up at the top of the division, but those advanced metrics for their pitchers, they're good. They're not d- they're not great.
31:20
I, I would take Bradish and, and Rodriguez and, and Corbin Burnes, uh, over, over their rotation at this point. And they're gonna get Cole back, and that's something to think about.
31:30
But I, I still think, like, I mean, no offense 'cause it is Luis Gil, but it is spelled kind of like Gill, and always looking for the Luis Gil, Tyler Alexander matchup. [laughs] Uh, the, the numbers game special.
31:41
But, but, uh, I, I think Baltimore's a good play there. I think, think, think, think they should be the favorite. You're getting plus 200, Gil. Wow.
31:47
That, that, that flies in the face of a lot of, just anecdotally, I'm hearing a lot of Yankees love.
31:52
So you like the Orioles two to one to win the AL East, and yes, I did get a lot of tweets when Gil was facing Alexander that one day. Everybody was tweeting me. Gil is, by the way, if you go to FanGraphs,
32:03
whew, Gil is a bit of, a bit of smoke and mirrors. Like, he's good. He's not this good.
32:09
Yeah, I mean, so I, I, I, I account for the whole rotation and just kind of looking at the, at the numbers, like, you know, based on strikeout percentage, walk percentage, uh, and ground ball percentage, and I think the walk percentage is like a 300 plate appearances, and the, and the strikeout percentage, ground ball, uh, percentage is, what, last 150.
32:26
So Baltimore's at 24% strikeout percentage, 7.6 walk percentage, 45.9 gro- ground ball percentage. And then the Yankees are at 23.9 strikeout percentage, 8.9 walk percentage, and 42.9, uh, ground ball percentage.
32:42
And what does that mean? It means that the Baltimore Orioles are ranked number two in baseball if you, if you do like an ERA from those components, and, and the Yankees are 14th. So- Yeah...
32:52
um, I mean, it, it's pretty, pretty good stats to use, I think, you know, moving forward, and, and, and that's, that's what the stats show, Gil. 30 seconds, Mark. Who you got today? Real quick.
33:02
Um, I, you know, I'm gonna throw out a parlay here, Gil. I'm gonna go with the, uh, the Twins, and I'm gonna go with the Padres. The Padres are actually pretty good, uh, to, to make the playoffs.
33:12
Uh, they're, they're getting plus money, got 'em 60%, but this parlay pays, uh, well, 1.54, plus 154, uh, Twins, Padres, Gil. Twins, Padres, Borchardt with the Memorial Day parlay.
33:23
By the way, Luis Gil, 203 BABIP, 5.8% home run to fly ball rate, and a walk rate that is near five a game. Mark, enjoy your holiday, um, obviously in the proper context. Thank you so much for making the time.
33:38
Awesome, Gil. My, my pleasure. Have fun. Jake Hawn on hockey next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. It says we're so close to crowning an NBA champ.
33:55
You know, after that delay, uh, up to the NBA finals, then we will. And with the action heating up on the court, it's even hotter at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA.
34:05
New to DraftKings? Listen up. New customers can get a no sweat bet up to 1,500 bucks. Just deposit at least five bucks, and you'll get a bonus bet back equal to your first bet if it does not hit.
34:14
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now and use code VSin. The crown is yours. Gil Alexander, Kelly Billin. Uh, we get texts, Kelly, in addition to tweets. Are you aware of that?
34:24
Uh [laughs] We don't get many tweets today. [laughs] Weath- weatherman Chris Falica? Cr- weatherman Chris Falica. Uh, weatherman Chris Falica does confirm, because he's a very savvy international traveler. Yes, he is.
34:35
He says, yes, very rainy this time of year in Paris. Thanks, Chris. Thank you, Chris. Uh- I lo- I love when I just ask questions on the, on the air, too, that I could, like, easily Google, you know what I mean?
34:43
Like, "Is it rainy this time of year, Gil?" [laughs] That's right. So what are the prices of onions in Madagascar? [laughs] He wants to know. Uh, Michael Monosano, Circuit Booby Prize winner, uh, year one, $100,000.
34:55
He said, "These playoffs have just installed Wemby as a minus 200 favorite for Defensive Player of the Year when the odds come out next year." Oh, that's okay. "Gobert eight to one." Uh, if it's minus 200,
35:08
how much can you get down? I don't, I don't even know- You're only final wagering at that point... what they're gonna, what they're gonna price that at. I have no clue either.
35:15
By the way, uh- I, I feel like it, it's not gonna be that short, but I don't know. Uh, Victoria Tamova, who was a, who's our, uh, plus 198 play, remember, we still have Tiago Monteiro to come, uh, at the French Open.
35:27
Tamova was up, was, she broke while we were mentioning that, uh, you know, again, that it's at vsin.com/picks, then she got broken back. Now she's up a break, serving for the first set up 5-3 on Ekaterina Alexandrova.
35:41
What could go wrong, Kelly? Uh, in a early, by the way, 24 hours into the French Open, our most defining thing is that we were up two to nothing in a play yesterday, two sets to none in a men's match, and we gagged it.
35:52
Ugh. That was, uh, Terrence Atmane, French player. Can't ever trust him. By the way- I'm saying it for you... during the match, Terrence Atmane got upset that he lost a point.
36:04
He hit a fan with a ball that he thr- that he hit, which usually is an automatic disqualification, but it was like home cooking 'cause he's French, and they're like, "Yeah-" Are you serious? "... you can keep playing."
36:15
[laughs] That is- [laughs] "Oh, we're done." He's like, "Yeah, you can keep playing. You can lose in two less." That's ridiculous. It is ridiculous.
36:20
Uh, Jake Hawn joins us ostensibly to talk about hockey, but he knows tennis, too, and I think he's got some French Open plays.
36:25
He comes to us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line, which is exactly how Mark Borchardt came to us. Jake, how you doing, man? Uh, doing great guys.
36:32
And I, I was, I was chatting with you before I, I came on and we were kind of going over some plays that we could have left that have started, and we're both on Tomova. Yes, we did not know that.
36:40
So I'm hoping to get that first bet and we can, uh, we can get some good vibes here to start the day. @JHan4, that's the number four. Jake is the co-host of the, uh, Point and Fantasy Hockey Show on Sirius XM NHL.
36:50
Any other thing that you have pending today in tennis, or is that it? I, I'm look- I'm looking at D- I think Dom Koepfer could take a set off of, uh, Medvedev later.
36:58
As we know, Medvedev doesn't love clay, although he's gotten a, a lot better in that, uh, department, and does seem at least a little bit more comfortable on the surface.
37:05
But he also tends to start slow in these slams, where, you know, first couple rounds maybe he'll give you a set or, or, or even two. Um, and I think the overrun games there would be the play for me.
37:15
So that one doesn't start until, uh- Okay... very late in the day. So I, I've got my eye on that one. And in terms of, of an outright, Gil, I know you're heavy on, uh, on Iga.
37:23
I see it on your, on your French Open, uh, bets there. And hey, you can't argue against that play. Iga on clay at this tournament, she deserves to be a decided favorite. But I, I do think Rybakina has a legitimate shot.
37:35
Um, just if they ever do get into a head-to-head situation, which wouldn't be until, uh, the final. Uh, Rybakina around 8/1 I think is, is where I got my eye, at least for some value on the women's side.
37:46
And can't argue with her as she's always live and everything. Um, okay, by the way, a set point for Tomova. We are burying the headline of course.
37:54
The biggest thing that is going on at the French Open right now is that Rafa Nadal, winner of 14- Yeah... uh, tournaments here at Roland Garros, is taking on Sascha Zverev.
38:03
And when I first turned on the TV next to us, 'cause I'm looking through Kelly, uh, Zverev had already won the first set, and he was about to break Nadal in the second set, and I was like, "Oh no, this is not gonna go very well."
38:12
Nadal, by the way, not committing to this being his last French Open. He's leaving it open. Um, but then we did a sh- you know, the show went on for a couple minutes and I turn, Nadal breaks Zverev.
38:24
So Rafa Nadal up a break in set number two, and it is pandemonium at Philippe-Chatrier. I don't even know if they're playing at Philippe-Chatrier, I just wanted to say. [laughs] Poor Zverev. Yeah.
38:33
Anybody with w- uh, that doesn't have a ticket on him, there's no way they're rooting but any, for anyone but Nadal. Oh, man. Come on, Rafa. Uh, okay, let's get to hockey.
38:41
Um, we were just talking earlier, Kelly and I were, specifically, specifically I was, about how these NBA playoffs, man, what, what you think you know either gets torpedoed by injury or then you just don't know some other stuff just flat out.
38:54
Um, when I polled folks about, and this is just before the c- the conference finals, who they thought would be in the Stanley Cup final, most people said, "Oh, it's Florida and Dallas." Yeah.
39:06
If I remember correctly, you did not. Didn't you say the Rangers? Well, my, my, uh, my pre-playoff pick was the Rangers and the Edmonton Oilers, uh, in the cup final, guys. Wow.
39:17
So a- as you know, when you get this far with it, you get into a co- like, and obviously you see a lot of things through the first couple of rounds, right, that might change your view.
39:23
Even though your team's got through, I might look at it and go, "Well, yeah, Florida's playing so great now and Dallas looks really deep, so should I change my mind?"
39:30
But I was just sort of sticking with that, that, that pre-season prognostication or pre-playoffs prognostication. Uh, and look, the Rangers have had to work for their wins, guys.
39:39
It has not been easy for them by any means, uh, to be up 2-1 in that series against the Florida Panthers. And sometimes you just win your overtime games, and that can be the difference in a really close, tight series.
39:49
Florida knows that from the other side last year, right? We saw their run to the Stanley Cup final, and it seemed like they won every single close game.
39:56
Every single overtime game, one goal game, went the way of the Florida Panthers.
40:00
So at least early in this series against the Rangers, they're getting a taste of their own medicine, where game one they completely dominated and deserved the win, and then two close games, game two and three, that could have gone either way.
40:10
We could be talking 3-nothing Panthers right now, but the Rangers find a way to win a couple of close one goal overtime games and, and that can sometimes be the difference in these series.
40:19
Okay, so you, because of your pre-playoffs prognostication, as you put it, you would not be the guy to say Florida plus 127 right now, down 2 to 1? Would you ra- if you didn't have that, that thought.
40:33
If you had never- Yeah... made that prediction, and you were coming in here blind, would you say to people, "Hey, Florida plus 127, pretty good"?
40:40
Well, I, yeah, I think if you're looking to bet Florida in the next game, right, in game four where they will be on home ice, they'll be priced around, I believe, minus 150, minus 160, just like they were in yesterday's game.
40:50
If that's your thought, if you feel like Florida's going to win that game, then I, I think you take the series price instead, uh, thinking, "Okay, they're gonna tie this thing up 2-2."
40:59
Yes, the Rangers will still have home ice advantage either way, but I think it's a, a nice way to get some plus money instead of having to lay the chalk, uh, in that game.
41:07
Or you, you stay away, you wait to see what happens, and if they get down 3-1, then you're obviously gonna get a, a much better price, uh, if you still feel like the, the Panthers can come back. It won't be for me, guys.
41:16
I'm just gonna continue to stick with the Rangers, and, um, I'm gonna wait till tomorrow to, to, to see if I actually make a play on them.
41:21
But it's a, it's a pretty tempting price, uh, with the Rangers, uh, at, at around plus 140, whatever the number is for, for tomorrow's game.
41:29
I, I think that's a, a pretty nice price for a Rangers team that should be able to keep these games close. Wow. Rangers trying to win their first Cup since 1994 and the Mark Messier team.
41:38
Rangers are plus 146, I'm seeing, tomorrow night, game four back in Florida. Rangers up 2 to 1 in the best of seven Eastern Conference finals.
41:47
All right, tonight, and I was just, you know, we were saying earlier, because the NBA might be in a situation where we're gonna have a long break here, so hockey's gonna be front and center.
41:55
Tonight is game three of the Stars and the Oilers. The Oilers were able to take game one in overtime against the Stars. Stars were able to knot it back up in game two. We're in Edmonton now.
42:05
Uh, our buddy Andy MacNeil used to come on the show all the time. He lives in Edmonton. And I was asking him, I was like, "Okay, what bets do you have?"
42:12
He says, "Well, I have the Stars to win it all, but just for the people of Edmonton, I wouldn't mind losing the bet and seeing this happen." Uh, how do you feel about this?
42:22
If Edmonton is minus 125 in game three, they're a slight favorite. And it w- when it comes to the series price, it's a complete coin flip at this point. Yeah, well, you l- look, this is a tough one to predict, guys.
42:34
I, I will say probably the toughest series I've had. And I, like I said, I sort of stuck with my, my pre-playoffs.
42:39
I think that w- that broke the tie for me, being like, well, I picked Edmonton to go to the Cup final, so if I'm having a tough time deciding this series, let's just roll with the Oilers and see what happens.
42:48
But, uh, so far this series has gone exactly like every Dallas Stars series so far throughout the course of the playoffs. They lose game one to Vegas, they come back, they look dominant, they win that series.
42:57
They lose game one to Colorado, they come back, they look dominant late in that series, and they win it. And same thing here, they lose game one against Edmonton.
43:05
Well, they just bounce back and they play a dominant game two, so we'll see if they can carry that into the road in Edmonton tonight. But I am still gonna continue to stick with the Oilers and trust in this team.
43:13
I am worried about the health level of their star player, Connor McDavid. It does seem like he's playing at less than 100%, but an 80% Connor McDavid is still better than probably almost every player, uh, on the ice.
43:24
Uh, and they do still have Leon Draisaitl there, who's done a great job, uh, carrying this team as well. And I've also, uh, really liked the under in these games, uh, as well.
43:32
I don't think Edmonton gets enough credit for how great they are defensively and the improvements they've made there, and we know Dallas isn't afraid to lock it down.
43:39
I think especially on the road, that's the type of game that they're gonna wanna play tonight. So I, I like the under once again. I'll, I'll run that back from Saturday. All right, real quick 30 seconds.
43:47
Conn Smythe, Igor Shesterk- uh, Shesterkin, plus 370. Jake Oettinger, six to one. Connor McDavid plus 650, Draisaitl plus 650 as well. Everybody else, double digits. You have a thought? I like Leon. I like Draisaitl.
44:00
Like I said, I do think McDavid is a little bit compromised here, so if the Oilers are going to win the Stanley Cup, which is kind of crazy to say, a Canadian team, uh, possibly winning the Stanley Cup, I think Draisaitl's the guy that's gonna be, uh, hoisting that beautiful Conn Smythe trophy, one of my, one of my favorite trophies in pro sports.
44:15
Yeah, I think Draisaitl is a, uh, worth a shot there, plus 650, 'cause you're right, Connor McDavid looks diminished.
44:20
Uh, Todd Wright, our buddy Todd Wright is gonna have a, he's gonna have a tough time if a Canadian team wins the Cup. His head might explode. He just doesn't think it's gonna happen. Thank you, Jake, appreciate it.
44:30
Thanks, boys. Have a great week.
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