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May 27, 2024
A Numbers Game | May 27, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 27, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we do appreciate it.
0:17
Uh, Numbers Game presented by ZYN Nicotine Pouches, America's number one nicotine pouch. Find out more at zyn.com. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin.
0:27
Um, Victoria Tomova did take the first set as a plus 198 dog against Ekaterina Alexandrova. She then proceeded to break Alexandrova to start the second set, and then she got broken back. Now- Yeah... bigger than that,
0:42
Sasha Zverev, who took the first set from Rafa Nadal, Nadal, as I mentioned, broke Zverev in set number two, and it was s- big time excitement there in Paris, and Zverev broke him back when he was serving for the, uh, set.
0:55
So, yeah. Just- We weren't a- we weren't allowed to have good things here with, uh, Rafa Nadal. Yeah, that would've been cool.
1:02
J- Drew had a great call on the, uh, on the Beating the Book podcast about this because I thought when, I, like most people, when Nadal got matched with Zverev in the draw, I was like, "Oh, what a brutal way after 14 French Open titles to have this draw that you're gonna get knocked out by Zverev in the very first round."
1:19
And he was like, "Uh, is it?" He goes, "Think about it. If he can put together any kind of,
1:25
you know," oh, oh, his, my words, not his, "but any kind of really credible performance, like even if he, if he loses, if he won a set," let's say. Yeah. Which I don't know if he's going to or not,
1:37
that would actually be the correct way to go out, as opposed to getting beat by, and I think the player that Drew brought up was Max Purcell, just randomly, right? As opposed to getting- Yeah...
1:45
so maybe there is some truth to that. I think there's, there's that, and, and also- Yeah... it's that combined with, like, stretching it out for, what, a week before you finally lose- Oh, yeah...
1:55
when you kind of knew it was gonna come at any point. Like- Yeah... if you're Nadal at, at his age, like I'd probably rather either know I'm live after the first round, right?
2:03
Maybe I actually got a chance at this thing after beating someone like Zverev, or you're just, you're done, whatever. Not a tennis great, a tennis god. Yeah. Federer, Djokovic, and Nadal.
2:12
And man, a lot of people feel like if you only had one match to win at any point, Nadal would actually be the choice of the group. All right, Kelly, um, what do I spend most of my sports betting day doing?
2:25
Tracking the Cleveland Guardians in May. Updating Guardians stats.
2:29
Ladies and gentlemen, you may recall that in March and April, we had the Cleveland Guardians at 65 to one, and that came one out away from winning a big time bet at 65 to one.
2:41
Just in dramatic fashion, one of the sickest bad beats ever.
2:44
Well, went back to the well in May at 16 to one, also driven by the schedule, and if we go to my path first, this is, um, you know, like I did in March, April, I was like, "Okay, here's what, here's what they ought to be able to do series by series," and then there's the actual what they end up doing.
3:03
Now, in March and April, it tracked almost perfect to the end, and we knew that it was gonna get more difficult at the end, easier to more difficult. In May, it was going to be more, it was going to be the opposite.
3:14
It was gonna be more difficult to easy.
3:17
The problem is, is that the fourth series in May, I had them, you know, going into Chicago to play the White Sox, worst team in baseball, I had them going three to one in my projection, and you know what they did?
3:26
They went one in three. Do you understand that the White Sox have only lost 15 game, have only won 15 games all year? So 20% of all of their wins, the White Sox, came in that series against the Guardians- Oh, man...
3:38
earlier this month. And so at one- That is brutal. Brutal. That part is brutal. Now that we're here [laughs]. Now that we're so, and we're getting to here.
3:44
So the Guardians were five and six heading, they lost the first three games of that series to the White Sox. They were five and six. So now Mr.
3:52
They're gonna finish with a flourish projection, I had them finishing the month 11 and two, the Guardians.
3:58
So even at five and six, and there were some games in between the five and six and what I projected as 11 and two down the stretch, even then, like I didn't talk to anybody about it, but if somebody was like, "11 and two," they'd probably have been like, "Really, Gil?
4:09
They're gonna go 11 and two?" Okay, you know what the Guardians might be able to do after that five and six down the stretch? Uh, they might go 16 and one.
4:20
So the Guardians have won nine straight baseball games, and they've won 12 out of their last 13. And so they've made up for that White Sox series, and they swept the Twins. They swept the Mets. They swept the Angels.
4:35
Now they got three at Coors and one home against Washington to wrap it up. And so you ask, "Where are they?" Get to it. The Phillies are still in first place at 18 and five, Kelly. The Phillies are 18 and...
4:47
Every t- so the sh- Yeah, but they finally lost a game or two. Finally lost. [laughs] That was the thing. It's like, okay, listen, the Guardians are the only team that are allowed not to lose. So here's the deal.
4:56
Unlike the scrum in March and April, where there was tons of teams still a- still alive heading into April 30th, there's only four teams that can win this now. It's very simple.
5:07
These teams have been so good in May that they've left 26 other teams in the dust. The Phillies are 18 and five with four games left. The Yankees are 18 and six with four games left.
5:20
The Guardians are 17 and seven with four games left, and the Royals are 16 and seven with five games left. Now, the tiebreaker at Circa, where I made the bet, is fewest losses followed by run differential.
5:37
Well, the Guardians are bad in both of those tiebreakers. They've got seven losses. The Yankees have six. The Phillies have five.
5:44
And the Phillies and Yankees run differential, if we went to the second tiebreaker, Phillies are plus 67. Yankees are plus 53. The Guardians are all the way down to plus 28.
5:52
But the Guardians, unlike in March and April, have gotten the best of the one-run games. They're seven and one in one-run games Classe, my man, seven and one in the month of May. So here's the deal.
6:04
That, that's incredible. Oh, they- Like, what a heater that [laughs] they're on in those- They're on-... seven and one and one-run games. Their bullpen is so solid, dude. And bullpens are the...
6:13
You know, again, people are like, "Oh, the Guardians over-perform." Eh. We always think about the lineup as, oh, they're outperforming their hitting. They don't strike out.
6:23
Um, they're actually better than you think they are. Their starting pitching is probably the weakness, honestly, but the bullpen has been solid. So anyway, here's the deal. What has to happen?
6:34
We usually put up the scenarios with three games left, 'cause it still, when there's four games left it's still a little too complicated, but I'll put it this way.
6:40
The Guardians essentially have to pass the Phillies and the Yankees because they lose both of those tiebreakers at Circa.
6:47
Now, at William Hill Caesars, which is the only other shop that had this bet, there's, there's only dead heat rules.
6:53
So you're just trying to tie for the most wins, so you don't have the same problem that I do at, at Circa.
6:58
This how also was the case last, last month, and it caused actually at the end a better circumstance for the Circa folks than it did for the dead heat folks.
7:06
But anyway, for the purposes of the last four and five games in the case of the Royals, here's what would have to happen.
7:12
The scenario that would have to happen for the Guardians to win is the Guardians, let's just make it easy, the Guardians win out. And if you're like, "Really?
7:20
You got them projecting f- you four, four wins down the stretch?" Well, they've already won nine in a row. By the way, I bet them every day, Kelly. First five and full game. They are- That's the- They are a cash cow.
7:30
That's the fun- like, or not the funny part to me, but, like, you... I mean, you've said that since day one. You are betting them- Every day. Every single day. It's phenomenal. So let's say the Guardians go four and oh.
7:39
I don't- Which is, which is great, because you're probably... I, I mean, are, have you covered this bet by now? Oh. Oh my God. Yeah. I covered it exponentially. Right? Just, just to make it fair.
7:48
Same thing la- yeah, same thing last month. But here's the deal. You want... You obviously want the big prize at the end.
7:54
So let's say if the, if the Guardians go four and oh, by the way, the Guardians could be eliminated by tomorrow night also. It's Coors. If they go four and oh,
8:04
and the Yankees and Phillies both go two and two, 'cause remember, they gotta pass them, and the Royals go f- even four and one, the Guardians will be your May winner. Now, who do they play?
8:17
Guardians are at Coors, at the Rockies for three, and then home against Washington for the final game. Remember, this was always part of the handicap, was the easy schedule.
8:26
The Phillies have, and here's why I don't think the Phillies are the favorite even though they're in first place, the Phillies are three where? At San Francisco, where they have to try to fight Giants magic.
8:37
And oh, by the way, the San Francisco Giants' last week of baseball is one of the most cardiac, unbelievably awesome weeks of baseball you will ever witness in your life.
8:49
So you're saying Giants magic is, is alive and well. Giants magic has never been more alive and well. They won three games in a row down four runs late. It was just incredible. Wow.
8:57
Um, so the Phillies have to go three at San Francisco here in the next three games. Um, and who do they close with? I forget now who they close with. But the Yankees, by the way, have the easiest route.
9:11
The Yankees, who are a half-game behind the Phillies, would have the same amount of wins, one game ahead of the Guardians in the win column.
9:16
The Yankees get three at the Angels, and then they have to go to San Francisco [laughs] for the fourth and final one. So the San Francisco Giants- You're a big Giants fan this week too, yeah...
9:26
the Giants, my team, have a, a- have as much to do with this outcome as the teams themselves that are involved in this. And by the way, I'm going to San Francisco Friday, and if it comes down to the Guardians- Oh...
9:38
need a Yankees loss at San Francisco Friday night, I am so there. That'll be awesome. Uh- Phill- Phillies close after, after, uh, San Francisco with who? Eh, I was looking up Royals, of course. Yeah.
9:48
Um, they got the Tw- Royals have the Twins this week. Yes. The Royals- So what, a four-game set with the Twins in the hot days... and the Royals are a huge dog today to the Twins, by the way.
9:57
Royals had a massive win streak themselves. Problem with the Royals is that even if... I- it's just tough, 'cause they're, they're a couple games behind in the, uh, win column.
10:07
So Phillies, the Giants, and then Cardinals for two. Phillies have- Or Cardinals for one, I'm sorry. Cardinals for Friday... Cardinals for one. They close, they close against the Cardinals for one.
10:17
So, and m- okay, and then in terms of when these games are being played, Phillies, Guardians, Royals play today. Yankees are idle today, and then obviously they play Tuesday, Wednesday.
10:28
So, so Phillies, Guardians, Royals, their idle day is Thursday, whereas the Yankees' idle day is today in terms of the stacking of this. But here we are the last week of this May bet.
10:39
We're at five and six, and the Guardians when they lost three out of four to the White Sox, especially when they lost those first three and when they were five and six, you're like, "Well, this wasn't the start we wanted."
10:48
Nah, I mean t- like, truth serum, Gil. La- I mean, Tuesday, if you would've asked me Tuesday or Wednesday last week if we were still gonna be talking about this t- this week, I would've said, "Nah, I don't think so.
10:57
I doubt it." I mean, when you sent me this stuff last night I was like, "This is awesome." There's a, this is the reason we made the bet, though, right?
11:02
Y- you also realize this is like, let's, you know, we, we like to pull the curtain back for the audience. As a bettor, I would never say this to you.
11:08
As your producer, I have to say you're, you're kind of obligated to the show now to make one for June and keep this run. No. Doesn't have to necessarily be the Guardians. No, I, I swear to God I'm not doing it in June.
11:18
[laughs] I know I said the same thing, but then I looked, I peeped, I peeked at the Guardians' schedule and, man, I'm like, "Oh, no, I gotta bet them again." I don't even think it has to be the Guardians.
11:26
I don't even think it has to be the Guardians. No, I understand that. I don't know if I wanna live another 30 days of this. I know I wouldn't.
11:31
These- Like, like I texted you last night, it's gotta be a bit of a tease feeling at this point now, too. Yes, it's half tease, half this could happen. Right. Yeah. Come on. What am I doing today?
11:40
Watching the Guardians at Coors. Check out our website, vsin.com. We'll get into that later. Mike Salmiche will join us with all our picks coming up. Oh, and the NBA, the Mavs and the Celtics, that price next.
11:57
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Check out that new website, vsin.com. Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides.
12:08
If I look at the, uh, front page of our, uh Of our website right now, I see Jake Paul versus Mike Tyson from Adam Burke. Adam Burke also all over NFL survivor pools. Michael Lombardi on the NFL interim coach dilemma.
12:21
I didn't know there was an interim coach dilemma, but he's gonna write all about that. And a whole bunch of tennis, by the way, from, uh, Zach Cohen. Zach Cohen is all over the French Open.
12:31
He has a play in this Nadal Zverev match, which this tiebreaker will go a long way in deciding. I think he has the over in games in this match, uh, Zachary Cohen does. Yeah, he has over, over 33 and a half games.
12:45
Uh, Zverev won the first set 6-3. We are in a second set tiebreaker where it is 3-3 in the middle of that tiebreaker. So Zachary Cohen heavily rooting for Nadal. All of that at vsin.com.
12:57
He's got more tennis plays there as well. Um, and thank you to Zach for having me part of the, uh, French Open primer as well. Oh, Zach killing it, man. Can I- All his NBA and tennis, uh, stuff going on.
13:08
He's got a lot going right now. He's got a lot going on. Um, let me ask you a question. Can I ask you a question? Mm-hmm. It is Memorial Day.
13:15
Tim Lawson was, uh, so kind to provide that, uh, note about, um, Elmer Gedeon, the, uh, former Major League player, and just a little baseball history on, on this, uh, Memorial Day, of a player who played five games, uh, before he perished in World War II.
13:32
Um, and just a story about how 500 major leaguers had served. He was only one of two that had died in World War II. Um, Memorial Day is a holiday, Kelly. Are you invited to a barbecue today? Yeah, I was.
13:46
I for- totally forgot about, uh- How do we feel about barbecues?
13:49
We, we, we were joking at the end of last week that we alwa- we, we work these holidays so much, we don't really think, you know, think about doing anything on them because we're working.
13:56
And I had a fr- obvious- obviously I was, I was, I was under the weather for a lot of the weekend, but I had a [laughs] friend text me. He's like, "Hey, you want to come to a barbecue tomorrow?" I'm like, "On a Monday?
14:04
Like, isn't tomorrow Monday?" Like, oh, yeah, Memorial Day. Was it you who expressed that you thought, uh, barbecues were sort of, uh, a strange way to, quote-unquote, "celebrate" Memorial Day? I don't, it...
14:14
Like, look, Memorial Day is a we- like, it's a tough day regardless. Yeah.
14:17
Like, you know, everybody should enjoy a day off, but it is supposed to be a day where we remember the, these amazing people that made these sacrifices for us. I don't, you know, it's- Yeah... it's tough.
14:28
But yeah, and, um. No, I'm thinking about my tribe, and every, again, ev- we joke that every, every Jewish holiday is, "They tried to kill us. We survived. Now we eat." R- right. Yeah. [laughs] Yeah.
14:41
I don't know why I put on that voice, but- [laughs]... that's kind of the thing. Oh, man. Um, this is...
14:46
I've, I've been trying to look this up, 'cause that, we talked about the writing about the Jake Paul-Mike Tyson fight. Yeah. And Tyson reportedly suffered a medical emergency while boarding a plane last night- Oh, no...
14:58
it appears, seeing this from The Mirror, uh, in UK. Oh, yeah, I'm seeing that now, too. So- Medical emergency on a plane to LA yesterday.
15:06
But this is, like, just coming down, though, I think, so stand by on more information on that. It's a little scary. Paramedics boarded. Um, yeah, they actually had a, an announcement on the plane asking for a doctor.
15:19
The message even came on everyone's screens. I didn't even know they could do that. And then paramedics boarded. Uh, the plane was delayed two hours, uh, prior to that, and then, um, Mike was in the Admirals Club.
15:36
He was escorted to the gate at the original boarding time, but then escorted away when the delay happened, and he eventually got on the plane, Mike did, during this original delay, about an hour and 20 minutes, uh, after the first time that he got on the plane.
15:50
So he boarded, got off, boarded again, and, um, I don't know, that second time he needed paramedics. Yeah, that's a little, little scary. It's a breaking story. Yeah. A developing story, as they say. We'll see.
16:02
Uh, hopefully he's okay. I just kind of randomly Googled that, too, because the, uh, we keep teasing that fight, and I'm always like, "Oh, is it, like, this weekend? Next week?" Yeah. No, no, still July. July.
16:11
Buried right in the middle of the Olympics or before the Olympics, I believe. Uh, Sasha Zverev off a mini break now in the second set tiebreaker. We're not allowed to have good things. Ah.
16:19
All right, we referenced this earlier. A little bit of fun this morning. Yeah.
16:22
We referenced this earlier, NBA Finals, now with the Mavericks and Celtics both up three to nothing in their respective conference finals, and that 154 such occasions where a team in the N- in the history of the NBA went up three to nothing in a best of seven, uh, the teams trying to advance are 0 and 154, and only four times have they actually forced a game seven, one of them last year with the Celtics and the Heat, and then the Heat resoundingly crushed them.
16:44
Um, so fait accompli that it is going to be the Celtics and Mavericks based on that history. If it is, the Celtics are currently, these are current numbers, right? Celtics are minus 230, and the Mavericks are plus 190.
16:59
Yep. Isn't that an odd... Now, I say this as someone [laughs] who's like- When, when we talked about this last week- Yes... just to, to, just to put this in perspective a bit, Celtics were minus 280- Yes... this matchup.
17:10
Mavericks plus 230. So there's been enough [laughs], Mavericks have been convincing enough for d- to drive this price down. I still think it's a great price on the Mavericks at plus 190, because- I think it is too...
17:21
correct me if I'm wrong, they still have the best two players, don't they? I, I think so. I'm with you on that.
17:27
Even if Porzi- even if Porziņģis shows up, and it's Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and by the way, Jaylen Brown and Stephen A. in a bit of a dispute now as well. Ah, Jesus.
17:34
Uh, e- even if, even if Porziņģis shows up, it's still Luka, Kyrie, one, two, and I'll still take that at plus 190.
17:42
Yeah, before I, yeah, before we get tweets from all the, all the Tatum defenders, although it doesn't really feel like there's that many of them. No, no.
17:49
I'm, I might not say that dur- on, on any night, but given it's the NBA Finals, and what Kyrie Irving does to close games, and the type of player he is, yes, I will take those two before I'll take anybody on the Boston Celtics.
18:03
Luka Dončić being the other person, of course. [laughs] Luka, Luka and Kyrie are already Hall of Famers. One would assume- Yeah... Jayson Tatum, if he continues- Yeah... this pace, would be.
18:12
Um- Th- this, this matchup's fascinating, though, Gil, 'cause this is
18:16
I, I mean like, like even this, all these NBA series, how many of them def- defined by injuries like you've brought up so many times, and it's so true. Like this is...
18:25
Okay, I'm gonna give like, Maxi Kleber, the Mavericks could really use him back in this series. If Derek Lively, if for whatever reason, I mean h- that was a little weird reporting last night.
18:35
Like there is, there is NBA concussion protocol. Everybody assumed he'd be put into concussion protocol. Yeah. Went to the hospital, but like to ch- get checked out for his neck.
18:44
A neck strain is what they were ruling it as. I don't really know what's going on. I would actually think if you're looking ahead f- to this far down, you'd prefer him to actually have a concussion, right?
18:54
To then, uh, you know, if you're, if you're betting on this, you know, nobody wants him to have a concussion, but you prefer that over a neck issue, right?
19:00
Where a neck issue could theoretically be a longer lasting thing.
19:04
Um, but they need him, 'cause if they're gonna continue this dominance with the, with the lob game in the pick and roll action, he, Derek Lively has been absolutely incredible.
19:15
A- a- and it's still not being talked about enough in my opinion. He's the best big on the team.
19:20
Gafford's been great, but he's the best big on the team for what he can do on the defensive side of the ball and the offensive side with the athleticism. It's just a difference between those two really.
19:28
Um, but the, all that stuff, it, it's Porziņģis. You're like, "Well that, that's cool." But like if Derek Lively's there and they don't have Porziņģis, oh man, like this is, it's a tough ask for Boston on the back end.
19:41
I just wanna revisit, 'cause people may not have been here for the first segment. I just wanna revisit again with the three nothings.
19:47
In Indiana's case, we don't know about Tyrese Haliburton, and even if he came, let's just say in a world where he came back and he played and they won game four, games five and seven are still in Boston.
19:57
But in the case of the T-Wolves and the Mavericks, if the T-Wolves could figure out a way to steal game four, games five and seven are in Minnesota. Yeah. So in just some strange way,
20:10
the Mavericks- I'm not counting my money yet, Gil. Yeah, the, the Mavericks would only have this one-off in game six where all the pressure would be on them. I know Minnesota's hardly reliable, I get it. Yeah.
20:20
But just play along, right? Yeah. It's a different scenario than Indiana and Boston. And so I'm just saying, uh, we looked at the prices earlier- I think-... on these series.
20:28
You know, Indiana, if it's even posted, and some book is not even posted, but if it's even posted, they're 90 to 1. And I'm see- [laughs] I'm seeing with the T-Wolves as low as 10 to 1 on something that's 0 and 154.
20:41
It's ridiculous. Give it... G- you gotta make that a better price. You do, but like, I don't know, at the same time- But, but it's reflective of what I'm talking about. Right, right.
20:48
It's reflective of what you're talking about right now. Yeah. So I, I, I don't... That is, it, it is interesting. A- and I think I would be
20:56
not as serious about this, Gil, but the, it's the, it's the better truth theorem, right? Like you always bring up. Game two and game three felt like massive wins to me. Of course. Massive for my tickets. Of course.
21:08
Because the situation you keep playing out, if this gets extended, who knows? As a Mavericks, I was gonna say ticket holder, but it sounds like you're going to their games.
21:16
As a Mavericks betting ticket holder, were you more worried about the T-Wolves than you are about the Celtics? Ah.
21:25
I think it's easy to say no now, but heading into the series, I w- I mean, I, I bought- I think you were... I bought off my ticket. And, and look, this is...
21:34
I will show, still show some respect to the Celtics for what they can do, and it's a different type of defensive animal that you're going up with the Celtics, and a, a completely different offense, right?
21:45
For as much as we ha- you and I have talked about the Minnesota defensive issues this show, Karl-Anthony Towns has been a no-show, right? Anthony Edwards, a couple clunky games.
21:54
Like they can't, they, they can't get anything going offensively. The Celtics will likely not have those type of issues, right? So that's the big difference.
22:01
While they, while at the same time they'll be able to put a, some incredible perimeter defenders out there, just like Minnesota will, uh, or, or has been able to. But yeah, I don't know.
22:12
I mean, I said it before the series. What, and I'll stick by it. Like I s- I s- we were wrong. I thought that it would be dead for d- Minnesota. Are you- That's how good tho- those teams play...
22:19
are you touching any of the game fours? Three nothings are so difficult. Uh, they, they are d- they are difficult. I think a couple I'm gonna look at later.
22:26
I'm interested to see how much further down this line comes with Boston. We, we could circle back to this too. Yeah. But Boston only a seven-point favorite? Like Indiana's taking money?
22:33
How- Boston favored by seven, Mavs favored by two. I might lay that. I, I don't know. We- let's, we'll circle back to that in the show. Game four tonight. Uh, good news, bad news.
22:44
Tomova serving for the match in our bet, but does Verhaeghe two sets to nothing. Samobomb next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. And Tomova serving for the match gets broken.
22:57
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23:08
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23:18
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23:30
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23:43
Four more days. That's vsin.com/subscribe. It's Gil Alexander. We get tweets, uh, on this Memorial Day. Always appreciate the, uh, the feedback.
23:53
Also got a lot of tweets from, uh, Bren and Brandi and Brandi with an I and that kind of thing, Kelly. Big fans of ours. Come on, dude. You know how it is. Big fans of ours. Uh, Bruce Dobbinger.
24:02
I got a Grace on here, yep. [laughs] Nothing to say. But as a Canadian, today is not a holiday, so I'm watching. You sounded lonely. However, remember hosting radio on... Uh, I remember hosting radio on Christmas Eve.
24:13
Only Cappies called. Courage. [laughs] With the Dan Rather exit courage on his tweet. I love it. Uh, Spence Listening from a Madagascar bazaar and the onions are 37 cents a pound. Thank you very much for that as well.
24:25
[laughs] I appreciate it. Uh, Jamie Samuel, "So I was walking through New York preparing to watch the French Open, listening to your show, and I walked right by this. I know it's a favorite for you in Vegas. Cheers."
24:35
He walked by Carbone there in, uh- Oh, wow, okay... New York City. Nice little shot of the awning there. And, uh, Corbin, "Morning, guys. Absolutely PO'd that I lost my headphones today before work.
24:45
Can't listen to ANG this morning. But please, someone bring up the hundreds of Wolves fans groaning as the four-time defensive player of the year, Gobert, switches onto Doncic.
24:54
I think everyone knew what was going to happen." Yeah, man. Mike Rouse, "Should we expect Gil to go full Wishnev at the Giants-Yankees game on Friday?" Oh, I will totally go full Wishnev if that counts.
25:05
[laughs] Uh, Teasers and Parlays, "Are we sure Gil will be giving back the tribe to Adam Burke after May? Rooting for that to get home." I gotta give him back the tribe. John- Yeah, I don't know.
25:14
He said the same thing after April, too. I know. I lied. [laughs] Oh, and then a somber note here. This is from Jesse Wells- Yeah, finally... but it needs to be said. Um, "RIP Grayson Murray.
25:24
Feel like this is the proper forum for that to be said." Yeah, Grayson Murray, who at the age of 30,
25:30
he pulled out of the second round of the golf tournament this weekend, a couple holes shy of concluding the second round, uh, feeling ill.
25:40
And, uh, we learned that he had passed away the next day, the parents confirming that it was a suicide. And, um, Grayson Murray, dead at the age of 30.
25:49
And it, so it, it really did cast a pall on the, uh, the rest of that tournament, um, which was... I don't even know, was, uh, Scottie Scheffler did not get there.
25:59
It was ultimately won by Davis Riley, uh, who won by five strokes. Scheffler was, uh, Scheffler and Keegan Bradley were five strokes back.
26:06
But it really, you know, to, to talk about the actual result of the golf tournament seems kind of- Yeah... unimportant. Yeah, yeah, it was tough.
26:14
Um, I mean, at first, first individual win for Davis Riley was a big, big win for him. But yeah, it, Grayson Murray's death is just crazy. I, I, it's so tough. We, we ta- we try to talk about...
26:25
I, I like that the mental, mental illness is becoming more of a conversation. Uh, uh, it, it's something that needs to happen.
26:31
But, and this is a guy who was very, uh, public with his str- some of the struggles that he had from that standpoint, alcohol, uh, a battle with alcohol and stuff like that.
26:40
And it's just so tough when you, you know people that are suffering through some of that stuff aren't willing to come out and talk about it.
26:46
So to have the courage to come out and talk about it, and then, and then see something like this happen, it's just, it's just horrible. It's tragic. A- and, and, and props to all the golfers out there, man. Yes.
26:56
Like, you could tell, for everything we've talked about in golf for all the past couple years of, of this divide with LIV, and, a- and you don't know how these guys feel about each other, to see that, how, how that had rattled so many of those guys, it really...
27:09
You get, like, the PGA Tour is still a family, and those guys are traveling and seeing each other week in and week out. I, I mean, it was- Who was the, who was the golfer- Peter Malnati was the guy who was breaking down.
27:17
Peter Malnati. Amanda Balionis was doing an interview with him, and he just broke down. And he's right. I mean- Yeah... he's kind of the same type of player.
27:23
Like, this is such a grind, and we never, you never think about what these guys are dealing with in their own lives, 'cause we just think about the competitiveness of the tour- Yeah...
27:30
and what they're trying to go through and everything there. We don't factor in everything else that's going on in their lives. 30 years, 30 years old, it goes without saying, is just, uh, tragic. Um,
27:41
Mike Somich, no way to artfully segue to this, but, uh, Mike Somich joins us to, uh, talk about some bets.
27:48
Mike, of course, the co-host of The Handle here weekends at the network with Matt Brown, @somobomb18 on the Twitter machine. How you doing, Michael? How's it going, man?
27:58
I'm doing good, doing good on this Memorial Day, Gil. Looking forward to doing this, and then headed to the beach for the day, so I can't complain. Oh, where? W- in, uh, Santa Barbara, are you? Yes, the beach?
28:06
Uh, we're gonna ac- we're gonna go, uh, up in Goleta with one of my daughter's friends. Oh, man. Good life. Good life. [laughs] Weather in Cali is cooperating, I'm, I'm sure?
28:16
Uh, it's, uh, sunny and 70, just like every other day. Man, oh, man. Uh, okay.
28:20
Uh, Kelly and I s- uh, we, we finished the last segment by talking about these, how difficult it is when it's three to nothing in a series, in both of these series.
28:29
Three to nothing just generally in any of these best-of-seven series, to really sink your teeth into a, a game four line. Celtics are favored by seven tonight in game four, trying to close out the Pacers in Indiana.
28:43
Total is 222 and a half. And the Mavericks are two-point favorites against the T-Wolves in game four tomorrow night, uh, back in Dallas. Do you have a play on either? Not right now.
28:53
I mean, it, it's tough to play these game fours when you have these 3-0 leads, because motivation becomes a factor for both sides.
28:59
It's funny to say that, 'cause you'd assume both sides, you know, one wants to sweep, the other wants to make sure they get a game, would be motivated.
29:05
But we've seen in the past in game fours, it's generally one side or the other that comes out and is motivated to be able to win the game.
29:12
Uh, the Celtics, we have seen them sleepwalk through multiple games in the Eastern Conference Finals. I don't really wanna jump in and back them laying the seven and a half.
29:20
If anything, I'm looking at some player props here.
29:22
I think Derrick White has the possibility to have a big game, especially if we don't see as, as many minutes from, uh, the stars Brown and Tatum there on the Celtics side. He's sitting at 15 and a half.
29:31
So if I play anything here, I'm taking 15 and a half, or possibly the under here, sitting at 222 and a half. Uh, in, in the second game, look, I, I like Dallas.
29:39
I bet Dallas before in the, the series started in the series. I've got a future ticket on them. But I, I'm gonna wait, and I'm gonna see what the score is after three quarters.
29:47
If I get a situation where I can get Dallas in at a cheap money line heading into the fourth quarter, let's say it's tied, let's say Dallas is up one, down one, somewhere in that range, and I'm sitting there and I'm looking at minus 110 to minus 130, I just trust this Dallas team so much more in the clutch.
30:00
And if we're tied at that point, I assume we're getting, uh, equal motivation from both sides, and Dallas, they were gonna pull it out in the end, just like they have been the last three games here.
30:08
Uh, it's the difference in the series. Dallas is a, a, a clutch team, and you've got Minnesota who struggle scoring in the clutch at times, and that's really reared its head all three games.
30:16
No, it's a, it's, you, we alluded to it earlier. It is the single biggest thing.
30:19
It's, it's, there is nothing that we have seen That would in any way dent your perception that in crunch time, Luka and Kyrie are gonna figure it out, right? Like, it just, this is what we've seen.
30:32
It's so-- they, they make the right decisions every time down court. Um, they p- they defer, they pl- when they're supposed to. They play the defense they're given. So I couldn't agree more.
30:43
What about the, uh, the, the hypothetical, uh, series price between the Celtics and the Mavericks? The Celtics were minus 280 last week. They're still minus 230. The Mavericks are plus 190 on the comeback.
30:55
Does that interest you? I [laughs]
30:58
it's interesting to watch how this has moved, 'cause it, it actually opened pl- minus 300, plus 270, uh, as, as Boston, the minus 300 favorite over Dallas when both these series started.
31:07
And we've just seen it kind of plummet consistently. It's funny that it's 3-0 on both series, and yet we're not staying anywhere near that number. People are respecting Dallas more.
31:15
I think people are watching this Boston team kind of sleepwalk through Indiana and saying, "Well, are we really sure they're gonna be able to turn it up in the finals?"
31:22
Uh, yeah, if you don't have a, a Mavericks ticket by this point, I would recommend getting one bef- sooner rather than later. I don't think this stops moving.
31:29
I, I think that if w- we end up getting this matchup, let's say both of them sweep, I think we might end up seeing Celtics minus 200 by the time this tips off.
31:36
So if you like the Mavericks, the time to bet them was at the start of the series.
31:39
But if you haven't gotten them in and you are planning on betting them, I would bet them sooner rather than later, 'cause I think there's a consistent amount of Dallas money coming in just because of, of the, the narrative that's formed around the Celtics at this point.
31:49
The three of us before, uh- I agree. Yeah... on, on the break were talking about how
31:54
last year, the Mavericks, we f- we forget about these things 'cause we're so wrapped up and we're a hamster on a wheel with all these sports.
31:59
But the Mavericks op- openly tanked with Luka and Kyrie down the stretch last year, because if they fell out of the lottery, they lost their pick.
32:08
So they got in the lottery, they got the 10th pick, and they end up picking Lively. Um- Just massive... generally, generally speaking, Mike, are you a pro-tanker? Yeah, of course. Yeah.
32:19
Look, if, if, if you're in a situation where it can better your franchise, what are we doing? Isn't that the whole point- I agree... is to better your franchise? So go ahead and tank if you think it's gonna do it.
32:27
Like, I, I don't understand why people get so upset about teams tanking when, you know, if, if, like, I'm a St. Louis Blues fan. When I know we're not gonna make the playoffs, I hope we stink.
32:36
I hope we are the worst team in the NHL, 'cause then we get the first pick. I, I, it boggles my mind that teams don't wanna ta- or fans don't wanna tank once their team is not going to be able to make a run.
32:44
Yeah, it's funny looking back at that Mavericks situation now, because that, I was, I was someone in the moment, and I don't think my opinion really changes on this, 'cause it's the whole Luka-Kyrie thing this, this playoff, right?
32:53
If you have those two guys, you're always gonna have a chance. So that same, that still holds true from last year.
33:00
But man, where is this d- where would this team be without Derek Lively now, and where would they be without him in the future? This guy could be a, a big-time player for them for years to come.
33:09
And I just have to say, when VSiN first started and I talked about Tank-a-thon 2018- Yep... and the, and the race for D'Andre Ayton, how much incoming I took from people. "They're not tanking."
33:17
I was like, "It's not the players, it's management. They're doing it." And people, now people are super warm to it, right? But back then, what's that? F- six years ago? People were like, "What are you talking about?"
33:27
Now it's, it's a, not only is it a thing, it ought to be a thing for everyone in- Right. Yeah... in certain situations. Mm-hmm. Uh, we'll come back.
33:33
Mike has hockey thoughts for tonight, perhaps beyond, as hockey may take center stage here for the greater part of a week. That's next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:50
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. We're so close to crowning an NBA champ again, after the delay to the, uh, NBA Finals.
33:57
And with the action heating up on the court, it's even hotter at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA. New to DraftKings? Listen up. New customers get a no sweat bet up to 1,500 bucks.
34:07
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34:18
Gil Alexander, Kelly Billin, uh, I got some good news and I got some bad news. The good news is Victoria Tomova comes through for us in straights. She wins the second set tiebreaker.
34:28
Uh, she was plus 198, so that in one fell swoop, uh, takes away some of the pain of yesterday, um, and this morning.
34:36
So we are back to sort of even level now here in the early going of the French Open, and we still have, uh... Did the Thiago Monteiro, uh, match begin? It did not yet, but it will, uh, in about 25 minutes.
34:46
That's the last bet that we have today in the French Open. Thiago Monteiro on the men's side, which you're only getting a few pennies worse than I got last night.
34:54
All hosts, all guest picks, every sport, vsin.com/picks for survivor. So I'm pumped about that, Kelly. Tomova plus 198 overall. That's awesome. There we go. Gil Alexander over. Okay.
35:05
Uh, Mike Somich kind enough to join us for a second segment. You can follow him on Twitter @somobomb18, where you know what he does. He drops somo bombs. [explosion] There we go. Bruce on it this week.
35:17
You guys are crazy. They are on it. [laughs] Thanks to everybody, by the way, for showing up on Memorial Day, by the way. Chris, Matt, and Larry. Chris, Matt, and Larry.
35:25
Larry's been so on it today, I'm Ron Burgundy-ing through things that are on the screen. [laughs] That was, that was my favorite segment in a while. [laughs] Watch what you put on the screen, Larry.
35:32
I might just blurt it out. [laughs] I ask them to lead you along with graphics sometimes. [laughs] You set up the next live read, and Gil goes there and start reading it in the middle of a segment. Ron, I have no choice.
35:42
I have to fire you. [laughs] What are you talking about? [laughs] Um, all right. Uh, Mike, uh, hockey is, uh, in full swing. These playoffs now, this. 'Cause I was like, we were going through like the...
35:51
Remember how the Western Conference playoffs in the NBA was supposed to be so great? And like- Yeah... if, if you go through, like, the series, the bracket, then the series, um, the series outcomes, it's horrible.
36:05
It's bad. Like, it's- I don't know about you guys, but I also f- I ke- I keep being... I mean, maybe this is just the NBA fan in me, but I keep saying this, right, every time, Gil.
36:12
"Yeah, but next round," [laughs] "like, it's gonna be good." These are all the series outcomes in the Western Conference playoffs, which were supposed to be the greatest conference playoffs ever. 4-0, 4-0, 4-1, 4-2.
36:24
That's the first round. 4-2, 4-3, 3-0. So at least they'll get a 4-2, 4-3 if they, uh- What are best series so far? I was thinking about this yesterday. Uh, Denver, Minnesota- Denver, Minnesota by far...
36:34
and then two Knicks series, Knicks, Sixers and Knicks, Pacers. Yeah, but that was so hyped up beyond this. And we're, and we're talking about all these teams that are not gonna be here anymore. Yeah.
36:45
I still think Nuggets, Nuggets-Timberwolves is the headline of the whole playoff so far. And the, and all the, uh, and all the Samich-induced injuries in the Eastern Conference, where now I owe you dinner, Mike Samich.
36:54
Where do you wanna go? Well, I'm looking forward to going to the sushi spot with you, Gil. No. No.
36:59
[laughs] And [laughs] to be honest, like, the other bummer about the NBA playoffs, we talk about that Timberwolves-Nuggets series. There were, like, six blowouts in that series. Yes. We didn't get any good games.
37:07
It's true. Like, it wa- It's not even like in the 4-3 series, you have these moments where it's like, "Oh, we got a big game winner here, big game winner there."
37:13
I mean, you look back and you think of Jamal Murray's two game winners. Those might have been the only two really late shots before Luka Dončić hit that three to go up 2-0.
37:20
Like, uh, we haven't had exciting games in the exciting series.
37:23
Remember that moment when, when Jamal was hitting those and, and we had to have the conversation of Jamal Murray has this unbelievably interesting NBA career where he's never been to an All-Star Game.
37:33
But yet he is a champion who has made a myriad of game winners and just amazing perform- And has amazing performances in the playoffs. It's unlike any other player.
37:42
And now it's like it feels like it was three months ago. It really says that. [laughs] Yeah. All right, let's get to- It was pretty wild. Yeah. Let's get to hockey.
37:49
Let's start with tomorrow night first, before we get to tonight. Tomorrow night's Rangers-Panthers. It's game four back in Florida. Rangers are up 2-1.
37:56
Most people didn't, didn't necessarily think that was gonna be the case. Panthers are minus 168. They're big favorites in game four to knot up the series. Rangers are plus 145 on the comeback.
38:06
And when you go to the series price, the Panthers down 2-1 are a pretty juicy plus 130. How do you play this? Well, I, I played it yesterday when it was plus 145. This opened at minus 165 Rangers, plus 145 Panthers.
38:21
I would still play the Panthers at min- at plus 130. Uh, unlike the NBA games, the NHL games have all been- Oh... very close in these series. Yeah. Just phenomenal hockey games.
38:29
Yesterday, if you missed yesterday's Rangers-Panthers game, you missed a classic. And it was a, a situation where Shesterkin, the goalie for the Rangers, absolutely stole the game.
38:37
Headed into overtime, the attempted shots were 92 to 35 for Florida. They, so they'd almost tripled them up in attempted shots. They controlled the entire pace of the play.
38:46
But timely goals, bounces, that's what matters a lot of times in these playoffs, as well as big saves. And I, uh, Florida's been the better team in all three games, yet they are down 2-1 in the series.
38:55
And it's, it's ironic, because Carolina was the better team in the first three games against the Rangers, and yet they were down 3-0.
39:01
Uh, I expect Florida's going to continue to add this pressure that they've had on the Rangers all series.
39:06
And at some point, you have to think you're going to be able to beat Shesterkin a couple times, as well as not just get these fortunate goals that you are getting from the Rangers right now.
39:14
I mean, uh, you saw a couple phenomenal plays by, by the Rangers youngsters there to get breakaways and be able to cash those in against Bobrovsky.
39:21
They get two goals in 25 seconds in the first period after the Panthers go up 1-0. I just don't believe that these breaks are gonna continually happen for the Rangers here.
39:30
I think the Panthers are the t- the side to be on. You can get them, like I said, plus 130 in the series. I would still take the plus 130 number. I think a fair is closer to plus 115.
39:38
I expect them to win game four, and then we make this a three-game set. And they've dominated, like I said, every single game in this series. They have the better offense.
39:46
They clearly have New York's number from a forechecking perspective.
39:49
The pressure that they're able to create on the Rangers in their own zone has just been relentless, and the Rangers haven't been able to handle it very well and get the puck out of their zone.
39:57
And if you spend that much time in your own zone, if you are facing that many shots, that big of a discrepancy every single game, eventually the flood, flood gates will break.
40:05
So I, I have to think the Panthers are gonna be able to win this series and win game four. I feel like I have a couple hockey bets I'm about to make.
40:11
I feel like the Panthers plus 130 in this series, and I feel like that Draisaitl bet, plus 165, to win Conn Smythe. I know you're a big, uh, Stars guy, but let me ask you about tonight's game.
40:21
Edmonton up, excuse me, pardon me, 1-1 in the Western Conference Finals, game three tonight. Edmond took, took, uh, Edmonton took game one in double overtime against Dallas in game one. Stars even it up in game two.
40:34
We're in Edmonton now, where the Oilers are a minus 125 favorite, a slight favorite in game three. The series is a coin flip. How do you feel about this? I, I, I bet Dallas pre-flop, bet 'em pl- minus 125.
40:46
I bet Dallas plus 165 after they lost game one.
40:50
Uh, if you go back and you look at the game one numbers, if you look at the, the simulations from multiple sites, Dallas had a, a 52 to 55 win percentage over 10,000 simulations in game one.
40:59
They won expected goals in game one, yet they lost the game. You watch game two, Edmonton outplayed them in the first period. But after that, the ice was tilted toward Dallas.
41:07
They, they played phenomenal in the second and third period. And Dallas is the best road team in the NHL this year. You f- You wind back just one series, Colorado was the best home team in the NHL.
41:17
Dallas went 3-0 in Colorado in that series. I still believe Dallas is the better of these two teams, and they found their game in the second and the third period in game two.
41:25
If they're able to bring that same game to Edmonton, I think the Oilers are gonna be hard-pressed to win. I like Dallas today. I played them the plus, uh, plus 110 number in the game.
41:35
I'm looking for a in-regulation number as well, trying to get plus 160, plus 170 on Dallas in 60 minutes. And if you don't have a Dallas series bet, I still like it.
41:43
And even more so, right now you can get Oettinger for, uh, Conn Smythe winner. I've talked about this for, I don't know, two straight weeks on this network now. Yeah. He's still sitting right around five to one.
41:53
If they get through this series, it's gonna be built around Oettinger and that defense. You're not seeing Dallas be able to, to fill the net up with goals.
41:59
That all plays toward Oettinger, if the Stars win the Cup, being the Conn Smythe winner.
42:03
Right now you're getting somewhere in that plus 260 range on them to win the Cup, but you're getting double that on Oettinger to win Conn Smythe.
42:09
So if you like this Stars team, to me, Oettinger for Conn Smythe's a good bet. I know you're a horse racing guy first, Mike. Where does hockey rank on your favorite sports to handicap?
42:20
Well, hockey is, is I would say the 1B to horse racing's 1A for me. Really? From a, just a, a fandom perspective. Uh, from a... I, I really am a, a fan of one team. That's the St. Louis Blues.
42:30
I, I root for other teams, but man, I am, I am a diehard St. Louis Blues fan because of when I lived in St. Louis, and the fact that I played hockey in high school. So I, I love watching the NHL playoffs.
42:40
I've been just locked in to both of these conference series. Can't wait for the Stanley Cup finals. And I like betting hockey because I don't think it gets as much action as some of these other sports.
42:49
Like, everyone's talking about the NBA, but if you watch these hockey games, there's bigger edges in the hockey games than there are in NBA right now. So I, I love betting hockey, Gil.
42:57
What's interesting, have you ever done, and this is just a me to you question. A- and when you... Have you ever considered that horse racing and hockey, some might say, are...
43:07
feel more random than some of the other sports do? Maybe, maybe you don't agree with that. Um, I would say I, I would understand why people say that. Horse racing definitely feels the most random, right?
43:18
But you're also getting three to one, four to one on the horses that you are betting. Right. So essentially, that's like a three-team parlay, right? That you're playing inside of a two-minute race.
43:25
So the randomness you have to expect in that sport. Hockey definitely has some more randomness in it.
43:30
Uh, you're going to have games like the Panthers' last game, where they clearly should have won game three, and they lost.
43:35
And you're gonna have games where, like game one, I think, again, Dallas was the better team, and they lost.
43:39
That happens with hockey because you have such low scores and you get one bounce that can really change the game. Uh, I like the randomness, Gil. Yeah.
43:47
Because I think it allows you to play certain scenarios out and you're, and you're going to get situations where it's hard to say, "Well, because of that randomness, one team should be minus 400."
43:56
You rarely see that in hockey, and so I, I think it gives you an edge when you are betting because you have more randomness in the sport. That is why I asked the question, 'cause I knew you would have a heady answer.
44:04
You embrace the randomness, and the market prices make it worth your while. Mike, I appreciate it. Thank you so much, and we'll talk Belmont Stakes next week. Sounds great. Happy Memorial Day, everybody. Have a good one.
44:16
Mike Somich, everybody. Co-host of The Handle: Weekends with Matt Brown, here noon Eastern, Saturday and Sunday at VSiN. If you're on the radio side, Gojo and Golick are next. Pictures.
44:26
Best bets at VSiN, the sports betting network. Enjoy. [upbeat music]
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