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May 27, 2025
A Numbers Game | May 27, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | May 27, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
44:36
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. It's like I was in the other chair suddenly.
0:21
Eh, it's almost like you were like that. Almost. Kelly Bidlin alongside. That's the voice of Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Producer number nine, so much more than a producer. How you doing? I'm doing great, man.
0:29
Was it, was it weird being over here? Yes, very odd. Do you feel like Kelly Bidlin sitting in this chair? Mm, no. No? No. You d- you d- you didn't absorb the essence of Kelly?
0:37
I just, I, I did have a g- I did have a much quicker clock in my head where I'm like, "Wait, how long do I stay here?" [laughs] It's very, it was very just strange. It i- it is weird. Yeah.
0:44
The couple times I've done, like, uh, spots in your ch- that your chair, I feel the same way. Like, something feels way, way different about this- That's all it takes... even though I'm three feet away.
0:52
That's all it takes. Different angle, everything. Uh, we got Mark Borchardt coming up on the show from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert, talk Major League Baseball with us.
1:00
I'm sure he'll h- have a pick of the day. He'll try to, he'll try to foist a parlay of the day on us, but then I will insist on a side. He will comply. That's how it works. It's how it works.
1:09
Did he, did he not have one last week? I don't think he had a parlay last week. Well, I ran him into a wall. Oh. [laughs] It's probably my fault. Oh, okay. Jay Kahn on the NHL.
1:17
How about the Hurricanes saying, "We're not dead yet"? Staying alive. Staying alive. I believe that's what the Bee Gees were talking about, the Carolina Hurricanes. Yep.
1:25
Jay Kahn will join us, and then Drew Dincic, hour number two, NBA and tennis. Let's see what else he's got, uh, in, uh, in Paris today.
1:32
By the way, we have a request from, uh, from J-Rod to get you to pronounce not only the main court at Roland-Garros, but also courts two and three. Hey, you got it. Just I- I- I- Okay. Give you some time...
1:43
you just need to text them to me. [laughs] That's, oh, I'll se- I'll send them to you. Uh, so we'll get a pronunciation from Kelly on the top three courts there at Roland-Garros.
1:49
So he'll talk, uh, tennis with us, of course, the NBA as well. And then, uh, the age-old question, can Aaron Judge win the Triple Crown?
1:56
Sure, we could talk can he win the MVP, but yeah, that's what everybody else talks about. Can Aaron Judge win the Triple Crown? We'll talk about that, uh, coming up later on the show as well.
2:04
And I'll have a couple tennis plays that remain from, uh, from my tennis plays overnight. We'll get to those here momentarily. But we must begin, Kelly Bidlin,
2:13
with the NBA last night, where the Oklahoma City Thunder take a three to one lead over the Minnesota Timberwolves in the NBA Western Conference Finals, best of seven.
2:23
They take it back to OKC to try to close out the T-Wolves in five. Uh, after their two-point win last night. They do not cover. T-Wolves cover, as so many in the peop- uh, so many folks in the contest bidded on that one.
2:37
Um, I, I was having a debate with 128, 126, by the way, the finals- Oh, good, I wasn't the only one? Oh, no. Okay, cool. I'm out. I'm done. Yeah.
2:44
Uh, the, I think the five folks alive, five folks mathematically alive left in the contest here. Fezzik, the man to beat, Zach Cohen on his heels. But, um, I was having a talk with somebody yesterday.
2:55
They were like, "Oh, it's a bad beat." I was like, "Yeah, uh, that's not a bad beat." No, it's not at all. But you were definitely on the right side if you had OKC, I think. Um, and you probably should feel bad about it.
3:08
Yes, it was a tough one, but bad beat it was not. We'll, we'll get to this Nate Duncan tweet here momentarily.
3:12
I just wanna go through the, if you missed the last sequence of this game, um, the s- the, the whole game was really this dance between OKC winning by three and by nine.
3:25
So the entire game was, was that margin, with the exception of 30 seconds. There was only 30 seconds in this whole game where the Thunder led by more than nine points.
3:34
They led by 11 points for 30 seconds really close to the beginning of the second half. 40 seconds left in the game, it's 123-118. McDaniels goes to the rack, he's blocked by Holmgren.
3:46
Uh, McDaniels steals, and you think it's over right there, but McDaniels steals it from Shai, or as the, uh, the Israeli, uh, trio that I was happening to watch this game with in the short, in the, uh, sports book kept calling him, Shai.
3:57
[laughs] I was, I was like [laughs] I was dying the whole time. Uh- By the way, not nearly enough of a reaction on the broadcast initially to that Chet block. Oh, it was awesome. "Oh, I got a block by Chet Holmgren."
4:08
I was like, "What are you? That was, like, a massive block." It was kind of like the game clincher you thought at the time. Yeah. But then it w- and then a terrible turnover just pulled down.
4:13
And then McDani- yeah, McDaniels steals it right from Shai. He hits a three, 123-121 with 23 seconds left. So they got a foul, right? They, 'cause they're, you're within the 24 seconds here.
4:23
Shai's fouled with 14 seconds left. He makes them both, 125-121. Gobert follow a bucket, following up someone else's shot, following up his own shot. It was kind of Angel Reece-y. Uh, 9.9 seconds left, he hits both.
4:35
Or excuse me, ma- he makes the follow-up bucket, pardon me. 125-123 with 9.9 left. So they got a foul. They foul Shai with, uh, 8.8 left.
4:44
He makes the first, but he misses the second, and this is where the, uh, the folks who had OKC were like, "Oh, no," against the, uh, against the number were like, "Oh, no." So 126-123, 8.4 left.
4:56
You ask yourself, will OKC foul? Yes, uh, 'cause then they have fouls to give. They immediately foul Reed with 7.8 left, then they had one to, that was the one to give, then they foul Reed again with 7.2 left.
5:06
Remember, they're up three. He makes both free throws, 126-125. Now Minnesota has to foul. SGA fouled with 6.1 left. He makes both, 128-125, and then Caruso fouls Ant in the back court with 3.5 seconds left.
5:21
He makes the first, but now with only 3.5 left, he has to, uh, he has to purposely miss the second, which he does. No foul is called on the scrum on the rebound. SGA then heaves it down court out of bounds.
5:35
They adjusted... Oh, no, no, th- they didn't adjust it to 0.3, did they? Was it 0.1 or 0.3 in the end? It was 0.1.
5:40
They readjusted it very quickly to 0.3, Gil, and I'm wondering if they really didn't wanna get into the whole- Yeah... "Hey, that fan catching the ball affected how much time should have come off."
5:52
I actually think, though, that they probably in the end, that's where the time should have been- Yeah... is right around 0.3. So I don't think- Yeah... it's a huge deal.
5:59
I don't think it's a huge deal, but, you know, the difference, again, we make a big deal about that because 0.3, you are allowed to catch and shoot at that point. Right. Anything below that, you're not. So it's 128-126.
6:08
T-Wolves now beyond half court. Um- Randle inbounds, heaves it toward the hoop. No chance. OKC wins. Ball caroms off. T-Wolves cover, but OKC wins. Uh, SGA 49. That's 40 points, nine boards, 10 assists.
6:24
One board, uh, shy of a 40-point triple-double. Uh, Ja- uh, Jalen Williams 34, Holmgren 21. A 79-point fourth quarter between the two of these teams.
6:35
41 to 38 T-Wolves, but the T-Wolves with 21 turnovers in this game, which is really maybe the most, uh, telling stat of all. Um, so I have, I have several qu- several things here. Mm-hmm. One,
6:48
let's put up the Nate Duncan tweet, 'cause much has been made of this here. Uh, the NBA, he said, has to change the rule 'cause it w- that play-by-play I just did of the last 40 seconds was nothing but fouls and- Yeah...
6:58
and free throws, right? So he says, "The NBA has to change the rule to eliminate the smart," that's in quotes, "the smart play of fouling up three.
7:05
Should be one shot and the ball if you foul outside the three-point line up three with shot clock off. Turned an amazing game into a free throw contest late. Robbed us of a great finish." Well, I disagree.
7:16
I'm not a- I'm not about this. I, I don't think you can d- first of all, you know we've been talking about fouling up three on this show since the dawn of time, that it is the smart play.
7:26
I don't think you can go to something. Yes, I get it. It's aesthetically unpleasing. We had this great game where no one could miss a shot it felt like. Just great offense. But you can't then penalize, in quotes, right?
7:39
You can't punish, let's say, the team that has worked to be up three points. You can't then make it artificial c- you can't make artificial competition at that point and penalize that team, the team that's ahead,
7:54
and make them not, uh, n- not able to foul. You can't not let them strategize at that point.
8:01
So while I understand because you think it's aesthetically unpleasing and so much of our sports is about ratings and is about eyeballs and is about being, you know, a fun thing to watch, you can't do this. Yeah.
8:11
You can't. I, it's, I'm a little surprised to... I, I didn't even, I didn't even ask you when you sent me this tweet last night. Yeah. I was like, "I don't know. I w- I'm interested to see what Gil's take is here." Yeah.
8:20
And, uh, 'cause I was surprised to see this from Nate Duncan, I, one of the, one of the better NBA minds and better NBA podcasts out there that I listen to fairly often, Gil.
8:28
I actually haven't, I haven't heard him complain about this before personally, but clearly he's been thinking about this for a while. Yes, he has. Yes, he has.
8:36
Um, I, you know what my immediate reaction when I first read this was this is kind of, this is kind of similar to the tush push to me. We are making a big deal out...
8:45
I, if every team in every situation could execute this perfectly, then maybe we need to think about something here because it is not very aesthetically pleasing, right?
8:55
But we just saw the Thunder themselves screw this up on not all that too long ago. Teams botch this situation all the time, and just because OKC actually played it almost perfectly last night- Yeah...
9:07
then we're gonna go to this far? I, no, I'm, I'm with you. This is- No, you can't, you're- It's rid- it's a little silly... it's as simple as you cannot punish the team that worked to be ahead.
9:14
You can't all of a sudden- You, you can't... you can't all of a sudden change the rules. Yeah, I, I, JVT said- And, and, and by the way, the other, the other team is able to foul.
9:21
The team that's down is able to foul up until that point. Now you're like, "And now you guys can't foul." Right. You, you can't do that. Exactly. No. And JVT put it pretty simply on By The Books. We caught him before.
9:29
[laughs] It's like, wait, we gotta overreact and change every rule when we have a- Oh, that's ridiculous. Again, it was a great game. There was incredible shot-making throughout the entire game.
9:37
It was fun to watch, and it, it kinda sucks when it ends that way. But I, you know, like if you're, if you're betting on this, I, I didn't have a bet, but I had that play in the contest- Oh... a lane three.
9:46
I knew I was dead, uh, 'cause I knew OKC was gonna go foul. Yeah, or they, but I thought you might get it on if they, if they blew a whistle on that rebound. I was like, maybe you'll get two free throws here. Yeah.
9:56
You know, so it, it was, it was in the balance. In the end now, uh, game five, as I mentioned, back, uh, in OKC with OKC now a chance to close out the T-Wolves.
10:05
OKC an eight-point favorite tomorrow night, 220 and a half is the, uh, is the total.
10:10
If you are asking how many teams in the history, we talk about teams that are down three to nothing, zero times have they ever come back in the history of the NBA playoffs from a three to nothing deficit in a best of seven series.
10:21
Only four times has a team pushed it to a seventh game. Well, if you're down three to one in a best of seven series, do you know the answer to how many teams have come back from a three to one deficit in the history?
10:32
Hmm. I feel like I did last year, but no, I don't remember anymore. 13 times total. Okay. Okay. 13 times total. Who could forget the 1979 Bullets against the Spurs? I remember that one.
10:42
Uh, 13 times it's happened, but of those 13 times, you then ask yourself, yeah, but how many of those three to one comebacks were with teams that didn't have home court advantage?
10:53
In other words, didn't have games five or seven at home, only si- only game six at home, and the answer is it's only happened five times. Hmm.
11:00
So historically speaking, for the T-Wolves to pull this off, it would be something else. And against a team like OKC, who if you now add their playoff record to their regular season record, they are 79 and 14. Mm-hmm.
11:16
Pretty good. They don't really lose basketball games. And they don't lose at home. [laughs] Yeah. That's the bigger one. I, this was... I, look, you're just overmatched, Minnesota, so I, this series is over.
11:27
It was, and Minnesota's got a good team. They, they do. Uh, role players stepped up huge for them last night. Ant was suffocated on defense. This Oklahoma City Thunder defense is just incredible.
11:38
One other note on this series coming up. We'll get Kelly's thoughts on tonight's game. Tennis picks, May wins update. It's all coming up. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:47
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12:04
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12:24
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12:33
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12:45
[laughs] What do you, who do you think you are, Mark Borchard? [laughs] That's next segment. I gotta wait for Mark. Sorry, Mark. There's only one resident rapper. Sorry, Mark. [laughs] Don't step on- That's your bit...
12:55
stay in your lane, Bidlin. Stay [laughs] in your lane. Uh, I do have two tennis plays that have yet to start. We, uh, split, uh, two dogs this morning. Lost on Sele Metava on the ladies' side, but won on Hailey Baptiste.
13:07
Hailey Baptiste beat, uh, Beatriz Haddad Maia, so that's a small little win. We have one going on right now on the men's side, Enrique Roca. Um, I hope I'm pronouncing that all right.
13:19
First set tiebreaker, t- tiebreaker currently with Nikoloz Basilashvili. But the two that have not started yet, both on the ladies' side, uh, one is the Czech Republic's Marie Bouzková, uh, +138 versus Anna Kalinskaya.
13:35
Kalinskaya, aggressive player. Bouzková, more of a defensive player. You can get it about +133 right now. Still playable at that price.
13:42
Uh, Bouzková's clay numbers are outstanding, as are those of the 20-year-old up and cl- up-and-comer on, at least on this surface- This is a new one for me... Solana Sierra, who is, uh, Argentine.
13:57
And the Argenti- the Argentines can, you know, they grow up on clay. They, just great on the men's side. She is a, uh, a great player on clay.
14:05
She's taking on Yulia Putintseva, who I met, by the way, at, uh, Indian Wells. She was just there in the ho- Oh, yeah, that's right. Hey... just there in the hotel lobby. I was like, "Hey, what's happening?"
14:12
Um- Gil's betting against you now, Yulia Yeah. She, you know, she has won us a bunch of matches as b- as a big dog in the past, but this ain't her year. She is just not, she's 29. I think she's Kazakhstani, by the way.
14:25
Um, I just feel like Sierra can get her today, uh, the up-and-comer. Now, it's, it's a bigger stage for Sierra, but that's the bet for me. So Bouzková and Sierra remain, uh, today. W- And, and I'm on the Pacers tonight.
14:38
Is, uh, is Bouzková one that your numbers usually point towards a little bit more than, more than less? I just feel, I feel like- No... you, i- i- is a pretty, she's a pretty common bet for you. Uh, no. No?
14:50
'Cause, I mean, there's Bouzková, there's Bolter. I don't know, maybe they, maybe you're getting confused there. Ev- I bet her once in a while, yeah. Only when the number fits though.
14:56
I mean, Kalinskaya you've bet before too, but- Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Well, she's, uh, she's something else, that one. Uh, Bouz- [laughs] Bouzková and Sierra. W- which one's that? [laughs] Kalinskaya. W- what?
15:06
What are you talking about? Uh, okay, and the Pacers tonight is another play for me, but those are the two tennis plays that remain. By the way, May wins update, Major League Baseball.
15:12
Sorry to do this to you guys, uh, back there. Uh, we just wanna get through the administrative stuff here before we get back to basketball. But, uh, May wins, the Twinkies and the Cardinals.
15:22
Did, did the Cardinals lose yesterday? Yes, the Twins lost yesterday. The Cardinals lost yesterday. Uh, so the Phillies now
15:30
one win more than the Twins, Cardinals, and Tigers, and one extra game to play than the Twins, Cardinals, and Tigers. So it is on the Phillies racket to keep the tennis theme going.
15:44
Phillies in the driver's seat, 17 and 6 with one game more. Five games left in the month of May. Twins, Cardinals, Tigers each have only four games left in the month of May.
15:53
Cubs and Yankees, uh, still on the screen, but really have a lot of work to do. Speaking of still on the screen and a lot of work to do, in that NBA, uh, VSAN NBA Killer Sports Challenge- Yes...
16:05
five people remain mathematically alive now. Fezzik in the lead, 22 and 13. Zach Cohen, 21 and 14, one game back. And then it's me, Kazerian, and Alex Christiansen who are mathematically alive.
16:20
Kelly Bidlin with the loss yesterday, you have been eliminated, sir. Eliminated. Sorry about that. But- It happens. What a terrible, what a great start to this, this thing for me, and then, geez, the last two rounds.
16:31
I mean, pretty, pretty, uh, pretty, uh- Common... pretty good reflection of what my betting's been like through the playoffs too.
16:37
First round was awesome, and then just kind of the games I've jumped in on here, uh, la- last two rounds, up and down. I, I think Doug can relate to that. Doug's the biggest example of that. I think he was 14 and three.
16:46
Yeah, he was crushing it. Yeah. Yeah. Um, Alex, if, if Noops loses, he's eliminated.
16:52
Doug can take third place with a win here in his last, 'cause D- both Doug and Alex have one more game to play this round, whereas Fezzik, Cohen, and Alexander do not. We are done with the round.
17:04
Man, it was the, I mean, I'm, uh, not gonna p- gonna complain.
17:07
Again, pretty good reflection of how my playoffs have gone, but the [laughs] just the, again, the Thunder with three last night, just another one where it felt like I was on the, I'm not, I'm not be- Uh...
17:16
not calling it a bad beat- No... but just kind of the wrong side of, of things- I had-... at the end... I had three of those in the first round too Yeah. I had three of them.
17:24
I had- There was a lot of those in this playoffs. Yeah. Like, there's no doubt. It's basketball. Yeah. That's what it is.
17:29
Um, okay, and about that, uh, one more thing about this OKC-Minnesota, uh, series, by the way, also, 'cause I just said, you know, OK- OKC 79 and 14 if you add their postseason and, and regular season records together.
17:42
So that's epic, obviously. Um, but do you know a little quirk that Will Hill, uh, mentioned yesterday when we were talking via text? What's that? They have n- Will's a smart guy...
17:52
they have not covered a road playoff game yet. Oh, yeah, we brought that up yesterday. Oh, we did. 0 and 6 heading into yesterday's game. Oh, we did. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. And then, 0 and, yeah, so 0 and 7 now.
18:01
So I've got, I've got Carl Sack on the job here. [laughs] I saw that. Yeah. You're doing good. [laughs] Uh, Killer Sports. Give, giving farm it out homework. [laughs] Yeah, I'm farming out homework.
18:08
Dude, Carl, who was kind enough to come up with this contest with us, he's got the Killer Sports database. So I'm trying to figure out, has a team ever won the title never covering on the road?
18:17
'Cause OKC is, at least if they get it done in a game five, they'd be one series away from doing that. Yeah, so they were, this was heading into yesterday, their, um, net rating in the playoffs, 10.6.
18:31
This is from Zach, I believe. I wanna give him credit. Uh, net rating in playoffs, 10.6. Okay, that's pretty good. It's 24.2 in their eight home games, which is very good. And then minus 7.5 in six road games. Mm.
18:44
So, you know, it's, it... They've been meh pedestrian on the road. Meh. What about tonight? Uh, I'm on the Pacers. I believe you are also. Yeah, right there with you. Mm. Um, right there with you.
18:55
I, look, I, the Nesmith stuff w- uh, is something to monitor here today. Down to one and a half in some spots. Yeah. I, I get it a little bit. Yeah, yeah, I bet them yesterday.
19:05
I didn't go in, don't, didn't go in huge on it though, Gil. Did want to see what this Nesmith, uh, news looked like. I, it didn't look good at the time when he left that game, but we'll see. This is the playoffs.
19:14
These guys usually find a way to, to, to play if they can. Um, but yeah, I, I, I like them tonight. Knicks, Knicks showed up big. Look, that was a huge game three performance.
19:23
I think these teams are pretty tightly aligned, but I expect us to see the Pacers bounce back a little bit here tonight. Um, have we talked about the whole KAT and Brunson on the court at the same time thing? No, barely.
19:37
I mean, I, I kind of brought it up a little bit yesterday with the way, you know, how their defense got better [laughs] when both of them were off the court.
19:43
Uh, but no, not really if, if you got the on/off numbers in front of you. So the Knicks' starting lineup, uh, minus 20 for the conference finals, minus 41 overall for the playoffs, plus/minus.
19:54
Um, Bru- Towns and Brunson minus 20 in their minutes together in the conference finals, minus 9, uh, in 412 minutes together in these playoffs. You remove one of them though, and the Knicks suddenly start being awesome.
20:12
With Brunson on the court and Towns off, the Knicks are plus, uh, 9.17 net rating in the playoffs. With Towns on and Brunson off, New York is plus 9.14 per 100 possessions via, uh, PBB stats.
20:29
The Knicks allow 119.47 defensive rating. That's points allowed per 100 possessions. That's terrible.
20:36
With Towns and Brunson on during the playoffs, that number falls to 113.08 when Towns goes to the bench, and to 98.2 when Brunson goes to the pine. That's from, uh, that's from a Yahoo article. Um, and then the EPM,
20:53
estimated plus/minus, this is via dunksinthrees.com. Yeah.
20:58
Uh, that metric has Brunson rated as the best offensive player in the playoffs at plus 4.8 overall, while also being the worst defensive player, uh, in the playoffs at minus 3.6. You get the idea. Um, you get the idea.
21:12
And by the way, uh, Brunson... Yeah, so Bru- so Towns, by the way, what is it, what is it now?
21:19
Brunson named, uh, 2025 NBA Clutch Player of the Year, only played two minutes and 46 seconds in the fourth quarter of game three in the Knicks' comeback win.
21:28
Towns on the floor for 11 minutes and 24 seconds of the 12-minute period. Do you think Tom Thibodeau is aware of this? Uh, yeah. I, I think he's definitely aware of it.
21:37
Um, look, I think it was a bit, it was part of the gamble from last year's roster to this roster of how they were gonna change it up bringing in Karl-Anthony Towns.
21:46
They, they are the ultimate example of two, your new superstar doesn't mesh with your old one. So, yeah, I, I mean, I think there's a little bit of that, but what...
21:54
I, I would actually blame it more on Thibs though, 'cause I think you saw this last game where you're stay- You, we talked a little bit about this yesterday, a- and part of the reason why I liked the Pacers tonight.
22:02
So I mean, Thibs messing with the starting lineup, where that guy has loved his starting lineup all season long. Mm-hmm. And
22:10
if you really felt as a head coach this was an issue, then you should have been working on different rotations and different lineups more than you were during out, during the regular season.
22:18
So when you got to this point, you had an options to go to lineup B, lineup C with these guys, one off the court, one on, to play a l- you know, Brunson with a Mitchell Robinson.
22:28
If they had more exper- you know, more time together during the regular season, um, you know, that's one that you'd probably go to a little bit more often. All right, we're both on the Pacers. What could go wrong?
22:38
Yeah, I'm sure nothing. Game four, Knicks trying to send it back to Madison Square Garden. Knot it up at two a piece in Indiana, trying to get that three to one lead. We'll come back.
22:46
A little baseball break with Mark Borchardt, Base Winner, next right here on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
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23:06
Sign up today at edgeboost.bet with promo code ANG. ANG is an A Numbers Game. Deposit $25, and Edge Boost will match the deposit. That's edgeboost.bet. Gil Alexander, we get tweets @BeatingTheBook.
23:20
Always appreciate the, uh, the feedback. Bob Saccomano, "Should we sprinkle some of, some on the Padres for June's [laughs] Major League Baseball most wins, just in case we get trolled again next month?
23:31
Looking forward to your June MLB win leader picks." As am I. I'm very excited for this.
23:36
Uh, Eric Biggio from, uh, from William Hill Caesars, "Few markets you guys might be interested in are out or n- or will be out today." Oh, listen to this. We have breaking news from Eric Biggio at William Hill Caesars.
23:47
He says, "NCAA baseball regional prices, the 13-run pool, new pool starts today." Do you know what that is, Kelly? That is- I do not know... that is when a team in Major League Baseball records, uh, that run total
24:02
in the game. So in other words, they have to hit every run total up to 13. So thir- they have to have one game that's 13, one game that's 10, one game that's 11. The first that fills them all out wins that.
24:13
So they're starting a new pool 'cause that's been accomplished already? I guess so. I feel like that would- First team to record- I feel like that would take a couple months...
24:20
first team to record individual team final score totals of zero to 13 runs in different games. Start date, May 27th. So that one's actually starting today. Wow, okay.
24:29
And then the big one, most wins in June should be up, Eric says, by this afternoon. All right, let's go. Breaking news. Thank you, Eric. Thank you for that. Appreciate it. Um, Sp- C.
24:40
Spackler says, "Roll those Rs, Kelly." I don't know what he's referring to. Oh.
24:44
But ladies and gentlemen, now we have the three court names, the three biggest courts at Roland-Garros for Kelly, and it goes a little something like this. Philippe Chatrier. I know that one already. It's, it's Chatrier.
24:55
Yeah. Well, okay, that's all right. All right. Well, but, uh, that wasn't perfect? Eh, it was close. Chatrier. Eh, it's good enough, yeah. Hmm. All right. So these are French, so I don't think this is Suzanne.
25:04
I'm gonna go with Susanna Lenglen. Susanne Lenglen. Lenglen. Mm-hmm. All right. Simone Mathieu. Uh, Simon Mathieu. Sure. All right. Well, nice try, though. Good try. Yeah. We'll do that again next time.
25:19
Uh, Chris Heath, "Exactly how I feel about the ghost runner in Extras. The home team is penalized by the road team getting the first runner," talking about that suggestion about you can't foul, uh, up three. Mm-hmm.
25:30
So he's saying that's how he feels, you know, and we were saying, you brought up the tush push. He says, "Exactly how I feel about the ghost runner in Extras.
25:35
Home team penalized by the road team getting the first runner." OPS, uh, excuse me, OPS+ is for commies.
25:41
Miles Turner, he says, "Under 5.5 boards tonight, -120, averaging four in the series, and I think Tibbs plays Mitchell Robinson more tonight."
25:48
Mike Rouse, "Please ask Mark Borchardt," who's coming up, "about the prison cell windows [laughs] and his college degrees on the wall." Will do.
25:55
And then Torch D., the one who put the satin on your panties, says, "Last series, Pacers go up on the Cavs 2-0, then come back home and lose. We're in the same situation for this series.
26:04
The halftime score of Game 4 between the Pacers and Cavs was 80-39 Pacers. Give me more of that tonight," he says. Let's go. We shall see.
26:12
Mark Borchardt now, the aforementioned, joins us from an undisclosed location in the desert. You can follow him on Twitter @basewinner.
26:18
Basewinner.com is his place and, of course, the Bet US show that he does on a daily basis, except for when he makes an exception and comes on our show. How you doing, Mark? What's happening? I'm, I'm doing good.
26:29
Wait, he says it looks like a prison cell. Well, I'd like to think of it more as a lab, Gil. I mean- Oh...
26:35
you know, I actually have a really good view, but you have to, like, you have to close all the windows and stuff to get the decent lighting, and so, like, I, I actually have a better view [laughs] than this.
26:44
And as far as the degrees on the wall, not my degrees. I do have my, my degree from lovely Sonoma State up there in the Bay Area. Uh, th- they're my wife's. She's got way higher education degrees than I do.
26:56
A Michigan alum, Gil, and, and she's- Oh... hardcore [laughs] Michigan football person. As, as Michigan alum tend to be.
27:03
They're, do you know anybody who went to the University of Michigan who doesn't love the University of Michigan? I don't know a single person. They lo- it's like 100% rate of how much they love that school. Yeah.
27:13
I, I, I would think- Yeah... I would think it would apply to most people and their schools, but- I don't know. There's some schools where- Okay... I mean, my Georgetown buddies are like, "Yeah, whatever."
27:19
[laughs] And they're not, like, they're not, like, rolling for Georgetown basketball. I mean, Michigan hard-nos, yes. Yeah. Are very, are ve- yes, they're very extreme.
27:26
Uh, Mark comes to us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line, of course. Mark, uh, let's start with your picks. Before we get into anything else, what do you have today for us?
27:33
Yeah, I'm gonna go with the parlay today, the Yankees and the Diamondbacks, and I think Rodon's been really, really good, and it's, Gil, it's kind of a funny story. It's really hard for me to bet on Rodon.
27:45
I mean, he went into Kansas City, I think it was in 2022, and I mean, all the stars were lining up, the X, the rolling X fifth, the, the alpha, gamma, delta, all those numbers were look, looking good for him.
27:57
He went into Kansas City, and he didn't get an outing. Allowed 10 runs. It, it has [laughs] to be the worst bet I ever gave out on air. So I'm giving him out today. All the numbers look good. I have this game priced.
28:08
It should be, like, -215. It's kind of rolled up a little bit from the overnight I sent out, but, uh, uh, I like the Yankees bullpen, number two in baseball, and the number four offense.
28:19
And then, um, Arizona's the, the number two offense against Burns, and he's, they're gonna p- uh, pitch Burns today, and he's really kind of had mixed results, but his last three starts have been tremendous.
28:32
Uh, I've, I've, I've had the pleasure to watch him. I really like him personally, and, uh, I've been rooting for him, so there's a little bit of a heart bet in that, but the numbers look good over the last three games.
28:43
So it's gonna be Yankees, Diamondbacks, and you risk one to win what? About 1.15, so pretty much a little bit better than even money on that parlay, Gil. Yankees, Diamondbacks.
28:54
Um, [clears throat] anything besides a parlay? Do we get one side out of you maybe? No? No, nothing?
28:59
You know, I, I think that speaking of good bullpens, the best bullpen that I have are the Minnesota Twins, and I kind of like them today, uh, going into Tampa and, and, and winning there. Uh, you know, Ryan's a decent...
29:12
He's number, he's better than decent. He's my number five starter, and combine that with the, with the number one bullpen. I think you can overlook the fact that, you know, these, these, uh, concussion protocols are odd.
29:24
Correa has been back for almost a week, and Buxton's still out of the lineup. At least I have him out of the lineup today because of the con- concussion protocol.
29:31
But even given that, I, I would say Minnesota as a short favorite, about -120 today, Gil. Um, let me just ask you a question 'cause w- you and I haven't brought this up before.
29:40
I wanna, I wanna ask about the Padres in a minute, but, uh, AL Rookie of the Year, Jacob Wilson of the Athletics, who's on the leaflet, -265. Prohibitive favorite. We're not yet in June.
29:51
And then you got, uh, Jack Hagglion, who's, uh, you know, just killing in the minors, who is, I guess, you know, gonna be called up at some point here by the Royals. You can still get him at 28 to 1.
30:03
We have enough of a season where would you recommend betting a flyer on someone like that? I, I think it's tough for me to, to responsibly give out Rookie of the Year.
30:12
It's really a market that I don't pay that much attention to. I do give out a couple plays early on, uh, uh, prior to the season, but I just, I don't really pay that much attention to it.
30:22
Other than Wilson, what is he batting, over.400 still? I mean, he's, he's really... I, I think it's hard to bet against that guy, Gil. Uh, he is scrappy as could be. Great player for the Oakland A's.
30:32
Uh,.350 he's hitting right now. Uh- Oh, I guess he's gone down because he was at.400. Yeah, for the Athletics. So, yeah, maybe. Not, not the Oakland A's, by the way.
30:39
I mean, but they, but your, your, your point's well taken in that, you know, there's a lot of season left, so, you know, some of these markets, and I think Jason came on your show before the season started and said, "You know, some of these markets are better [laughs] just to wait on."
30:53
And we have to, you know, because of what we do, we have to give out, you know, plays and futures and that sort of thing before the season starts, but I th- I would agree with him actually Yeah.
31:02
Well, he, he came to that on the hard way, too. I- he, he had to learn the hard way on that as well.
31:06
But I, I don't know, 28 to 1, pretty tempting for a guy who's gonna, uh, you know, i- is, is a much more f- you know, in terms of hitting the long ball more than Jacob Wilson.
31:16
Uh, a team that will be in contention as opposed to the Athletics, right? Perhaps they, they will be. The Royals, we'll see. So I don't know. I think there's a, there's a path where you bet that.
31:25
Um, I wanna ask you about the Padres, because, uh, I bet them most wins in May. They have been, I don't wanna call them a disaster in May, but kind of a disaster in May. They got all their offensive players back.
31:39
Still, still need some pitching help with, uh, you. But they got all their key offensive players back. They go on this epic 0 for 38 hitless streak with runners in scoring position.
31:51
And as a, you know, someone who has a bet on them, you just have to laugh, because the record is 45 in a row hitless. So they, they really flirted with that.
31:58
Like, every time they got somebody in, with, in scoring position, you would watch, after a while you'd just be like, "There's no chance they're getting a hit here. There's no chance they're knocking him in."
32:06
The other thing that just went into the, you know, just dove into the oblivion, I almost went a different direction there, Kelly, uh, was their bullpen, which was great up until the early days of May, and then just all of a sudden was terrible.
32:21
You kinda, I mean, you, you... I, I don't wanna say you were onto this kind of nosedive on either of them, but you were never quite as bullish on them as I was, huh? And this kinda manifested a little bit for you.
32:33
Yeah, I mean, I think that it's interesting watching that team.
32:36
And, and what I noticed when watching them yesterday is the energy that they have at home versus on the road where they look kind of like they were sleepwalking.
32:46
Uh, but I, I don't, I'm not as high on their bullpen as, as a lot of people were, uh, during, I guess they had a stretch, Gill, where they, they won eight straight. Yeah. Or they, I don't know, what were they?
32:55
14 and 3 to start the season off. I think they're a good team.
32:59
Uh, I think I have them close to, like, 88 wins on the season, but it's, it's a tough division, and my numbers say Dodgers, Diamondbacks, or Giants, and Giants are better teams. Okay. Uh, there he goes.
33:11
Um, Mark, appreciate it as always. When is the Bet US show? How do people access it easily? Y- it's on YouTube, Bet US MLB Show, uh, every day at 8:00 AM, Gill. Every day at 8:00 AM.
33:23
And it's you solo, or who are your co-hosts? Uh, well, my, my, the host is, is Kyle. He does a show 180 days. I don't think he's missed one show.
33:32
And then there's Corby Craig, who's really good, and Kenny MacAndras who-- and we all handicap differently.
33:37
But one thing you can do is you can catch Gill's show live, and then you can go to YouTube and, and watch our show later. There you go. Thank you. Thank you, Mark. Hockey next with Jake Hahn on a Numbers Game at VSiN.
33:52
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Take your betting to the next level with First Bet. Whether it's Santa Anita, Gulfstream Park, or Saratoga Racecourse, First Bet puts the action at your fingertips.
34:04
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34:18
You and I had the, uh, similar experience. We, we don't do well betting horses, and then we went ahead and we bet, uh, journalism to win the Preakness. Mm-hmm.
34:30
And of course, we finally get a winner, but then we also bet other stuff and we lost. Oh, no, you might have. I, I only bet the other stuff. Oh, you only bet the other stuff.
34:37
Yeah, [laughs] I only bet the trifectas- Oh... and all that stuff, yeah. [laughs] Oh. Sorry about that. Didn't mean to bring... Yeah. Oh, I do have a grievance about, for, for you. Oh, good. I have a grievance.
34:47
What's that? I have, I have a Gill versus Kelly grievance after you had a grievance against me yesterday. All right, cool. Um, you know how in the contest you're like, "Yeah, well, it doesn't surprise me.
34:54
You and Fezzik are good contest players"? I'd say Fezzik is a great contest player. I would say mine is just as much handicapping as it was contest on this one. Well, well done, then. Yeah. You've had a good playoff run.
35:03
Yeah. Yeah, you, but you, what'd you have, an 8-1, 8-1 tear or something? 8- 8-1-1, buddy. Yeah, man. That's a sick tear. Don't worry, I'm still, like, literally Fezzik's magic number to knock me out is one. Yeah.
35:15
Yeah, I'm done. Yeah. I'm done too. I'm not winning this. He, he's pretty much dominated this thing throughout. Zach, Zach could still beat him. Yeah. And here's the thing we don't know about the contest.
35:27
Remember, there's a tiebreaker. And that- Oh, right. Yeah... and that is concealed. We don't know,
35:34
I do, by the way, but we don't, I'm not allowed to say it out loud 'cause Fezzik's like, "No," but there might be a competitive advantage if you say it out loud, right?
35:41
But w- but you, before the contest began, we had to submit via email the team we thought would win the NBA championship. Wasn't the, was the matchup in the winner or just the winner? No, just the winner.
35:50
Oh, it's just the winner. Which you would think would be just, oh, clearly everyone's gonna take the same team. Not the case. Ah, well, not that I have to worry about it anyways, but mine's- Yeah... already eliminated.
36:02
Oh, who'd you have? I think I said in the Celtics for that. Oh, you did? Okay. All right. Let's talk some hockey for goodness sake.
36:08
While all this basketball's been going on, the NHL in full effect, in full effect mode as the great Albie Sher one said. Jake Hahn joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
36:16
Uh, you can follow Jake on Twitter at JayHahn4. That's H-A-H-N. Of course, co-host of The Point and the Fantasy Hockey Show at SiriusXM NHL. How you doing, Jake? I'm doing great, guys.
36:27
And, uh, I guess even a little bit better because we've got an extra hockey game this week. I, I thought we would get the sweep last night. Ultimately, Carolina steps up. They finally win a, a conference final game.
36:37
It'd been a long time for Hurricanes fans.
36:39
So I, I know it's likely they're gonna lose the series here at some point, but at least you get one, you avoid the sweep, and, and we get another hockey game to break down on Wednesday.
36:47
And obviously we have a, a really big one tonight as well between the Dallas Stars and the Edmonton Oilers. Yeah, game five back in, uh, Carolina tomorrow night.
36:55
It's, there's a virtual coin flip, by the way, on the line. What, what about that last night, Jake? I just wanna ask you as a, as a guy who follows hockey closer than Kelly and I do.
37:05
Uh, so Carolina just gets rolled in the first three games. They look terrible. Uh, that after, you know, crushing the Caps, that's a whole nother story.
37:13
And then last night they come out, they win three to nothing, and all of a sudden it's like, all right, well, you know, if we win this next one, all of a sudden the pressure is all, you know, in, in, with, with the Panthers.
37:22
What about that? Is it just hockey as, as hockey is, or was there something to it last night?
37:28
W- well, I, I think there was a little something to it, not that the series has shifted by any means and, you know, Carolina's gonna rhyme off a couple more and, and rip this to seven.
37:36
I, I don't think that that's going to happen. But I think if you just looked at last night's game, Gil, we use the cliche probably too much when it comes to breaking down hockey.
37:43
Okay, if you score first, everyone wants to score first. Of course you wanna score first. Who do- well, you also wanna score second. You wanna score third. [laughs] You wanna score fourth.
37:50
You just want, you wanna score all the goals, right? But we always talk about that- I'd like, I'd like to score fourth. [laughs] That's kind of my thing. Yes. Yeah. Four- fourth would be good as well. Yeah.
37:57
Any time you could score, it's a good time. But I think specifically in this series, and I don't think Carolina is built to trail in hockey games and come back in games, especially against Florida.
38:07
It's one thing against maybe a different team, but Florida and how well they defend, and Carolina's offense can tend to go away a little bit.
38:13
I just think trailing in hockey games is, is not meant for them in this series. And they finally got a chance to score first. Now, it was a late first goal.
38:20
Uh, it didn't come until the second period, but you could just tell it went right to their legs playing with the lead.
38:25
Florida was still doing a lot of good things to get in the zone, uh, but it felt like they were closed off a lot more by Carolina. The pucks just weren't bouncing for them around the net.
38:33
There was a couple moments where I thought, "Oh, Florida's gonna tie it here.
38:36
They have a, you know, little mini two-on-one or a great chance right in front of the net," and it would bounce over a stick, or it just wouldn't go their way. So things didn't go Florida's way, uh, last night.
38:45
I wouldn't read too much into it to say that this series has dramatically shifted. I think it's as simple as Carolina being able to finally get to their game for the first time in this entire series. Yeah.
38:55
That, that sounds like a reasonable explanation. I think m- I think most would agree with that. You'd be on Florida then tomorrow night? I will be on Florida tomorrow night.
39:03
I, I've been on Florida in some fashion in every game so far. Obviously, last night it, it didn't work out, but I still liked a lot of the things I saw from the Panthers. And hey, you gotta give Carolina credit.
39:12
They were desperate. They don't wanna get swept again and have to hear about how they never win a conference final game, and the Metro stinks, and the Atlantic is way better.
39:20
So you could tell there was, uh, the desperation, which you would have expected. I, I actually thought Florida matched that. They just couldn't find a way to score a goal.
39:27
Now, we aren't getting as good of a line on the Panthers tomorrow night as we did in the first two games in Carolina. We actually got them at plus money in games one and two, which I, I loved.
39:35
I was hoping to maybe get that price again. Uh, but about minus 110. You know, I'm seeing it up to minus 115 in some places. I'd be comfortable playing it at anything around a pick 'em.
39:44
I like the Panthers to close it out tomorrow night. Okay. Uh, as far as tonight is concerned, Dallas and Edmonton. Edmonton up two games to one. Game four tonight. Edmonton trying to extend the lead to three to one.
39:55
They are a minus 151 favorite in this game. Uh, I wanna relate this to my buddy, who, uh, many listeners are familiar with, Todd Wishnev.
40:02
Todd does this thing where whenever he voices a bet, right, where he's like, "Oh, man, I think this is a great bet," and then he doesn't follow through and actually bet it, I think he has a documented lifetime five bajillion and O, I think.
40:15
[laughs] It always works out if he doesn't then follow through the bet. This applies to other things in life, right? He's like, "You know, you should really invent in the, i- invest in these Bitcoin ETFs.
40:24
Are you b- are you investing?" He goes, "I don't know if I am." Uh, soars, right? Yeah.
40:28
So I, earlier in the NHL playoffs, I said, "You know, this Edmonton team, I don't know much about hockey, but they look like they might win the Stanley Cup." And of course, Jake, I did not bet it.
40:38
And so here they are, and now I'm having all this regret. And so now I'm like, I'm figuring out a, a ch- [laughs] this is the worst.
40:46
What it amounts to was a chase bet here, where I'm like, "Okay, they're too short to bet right now." But I look at the Conn Smythe market, and Leon Draisaitl is still in double digits.
40:57
Like, is this an impossibility that he would win it if they win the Cup? Well, uh, Kelly knows this as well, betting golf, and a lot of people a- will ask me for my golf takes, you know, leading up to a tournament.
41:08
And I'll say, "Well, I kind of like this person. I, you know, I kind of like this person." And then, you know, you can't bet everybody.
41:13
You end up not betting a couple guys that maybe you really liked, and then you pull up the leaderboard on Thursday, and the guy that you liked that you didn't bet is, you know, minus six, and he's leading the golf tournament.
41:22
And you're like, "Well, now, now I know I need a piece of him. I'm desperate."
41:25
And you don't wanna bet him at, at horrible odds, so I know exactly what you're saying, Gil, about that n- you know, non-Edmonton bet that you made, and still trying to find a way to bet it without taking, you know, the Edmonton Cup price.
41:35
I think Draisaitl at 12 to one is reasonable because this, this award does come with a lot of recency bias. Now, you're still, you'd still need a lot of things to go your way.
41:43
You would need Draisaitl and Edmonton to obviously make the Cup Final, win the Cup, and he would have to have the big series, which he's very capable of doing. McDavid's the man right now, and he is driving this team.
41:54
He's j- just unbelievable to watch. But the, by no means, uh, could Draisaitl... Draisaitl could go out there and have six goals in the Cup Final, and everybody's gonna remember that and vote for Draisaitl.
42:03
So I, I think at 12 to one, uh, if you still wanna get a piece of that and you feel like you missed out, I, I don't mind that number on, on Leon at 12 to one. Yeah.
42:10
The flip side of this, of course, Jake, going into the psychology of a bettor is the moment I bet Draisaitl, the Stars will come back and win this series, right? Yes.
42:18
That's obviously part of this, uh, superstition as well. And what about this game tonight, Edmonton, uh, against Dallas? Dallas still, according to some, the team to beat, no matter that they're down two to one.
42:30
I think this is different than the Eastern Conference series.
42:33
Uh, all due respect to Carolina, and they did get a, a well-deserved win last night, but Dallas has a way better chance of getting back in this series against Edmonton. Now, I picked Edmonton in this series.
42:42
I still like Edmonton to get it done. I just don't think it's maybe gonna be as neat and tidy as it's looked the last couple of games. The Oilers get that three-nothing shutout.
42:50
And then the six-one game on Sunday afternoon, I... You know, you look at that score and go, "Wow, the Oilers blew them out of the water," and they did in the third period.
42:57
But, you know, that was a, a two-one hockey game late into the second period. McDavid scores a goal in the final minute, and that was just kind of a backbreaker for Dallas.
43:04
So it was a lot closer, I think, than the score indicated.
43:07
Uh, and I, you know, don't really think there's a ton of value on the money line in tonight's game, even though I, I would lean Edmonton to get it done on home ice, guys.
43:15
I think the under six and a half is where I, I would look here. I know it's frightening to take an under between these two teams, but it, w- we're starting to see these games tighten up.
43:23
We had a dead set under on Friday night. It sh- probably should have been an under, uh, in the last game, and it ends up still barely going over, uh, by a goal with that six-one final.
43:32
So under six and a half, you'll have to pay a, a little juice for it. But I, I think we, we tighten this thing up as it gets deeper and deeper into the series. All right.
43:39
And would you, in a hypothetical Stanley Cup Final, would you make Florida the series favorite over either Dallas or Edmonton, or would you make Dallas the series favorite over Florida, but Florida the series favorite over Edmonton?
43:54
At this point, I would have to make Florida the favorite over anybody. I don't know if the oddsmakers are going to agree with me on that. And if I do catch Florida as an underdog, it's gonna be hard to resist them.
44:03
But I go back to your original thought, Gil. It just, to me, it feels like the Oilers' year. It feels like McDavid will not be denied two years in a row. So I'm, I'm still rolling with the Edmonton Oilers.
44:12
But yeah, if I'm pricing it, I'd, you know, I almost have to make Florida the favorite against anybody at this point. Does it mean a lot to you personally to, to have a Cup win in, in Canada? Not me personally. I, I...
44:23
The rest of Canada doesn't really do that as much as people think. Yeah. But I would be happy for the, the, the fans in Edmonton, and mostly the individual of Connor McDavid. There you go. Thank you, Jake. Appreciate it.
44:33
Drew Dintzen. Thanks, boys. Tennis and the NBA next.
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