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May 28, 2024
A Numbers Game | May 28, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 28, 2024 | Hour 2
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44:20
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
0:11
VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, so many ways to take us in. We appreciate however you are doing so this morning. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin.
0:22
Still to come this hour, we'll look at some French Open props. Paul Sporer will join us to talk MLB. By the way, uh, Kelly, I know you got in on it. Kiki Mladenovic drops the first set 6-4. She got broken late.
0:33
Come on, Kiki, get it together. Well, you can get 10 to 1 now if you wanna jump in. Gotta get the home crowd behind her, man. She is a French player taking on Petra Martic.
0:42
Uh, Kiki Mladenovic down a set, while, uh, Nuno Borges and, uh, Tomas Machac are in a first set tiebreaker, where Borges is a slight dog.
0:53
As the French Open rolls o- I shouldn't say rolls on, 'cause it's like gets in matches in between the raindrops kind of. Yeah, rolls and then stops for rain. Yeah. Yeah, and then rolls on.
1:01
A really quick, uh, interesting, uh, uh, note coming down from Shams on Bronny James. Uh-oh. Scheduled, was schedule, was scheduled for 10 workouts with NBA teams.
1:13
Has declined them all except for the Lakers and the Suns. Okay, translate that for me. I mean, I just, I don't know.
1:21
Just for- Meaning, meaning does that say that LeBron James is only willing to play for his Lakers or the Suns? That's what it tells me. Um, yeah, maybe.
1:28
Maybe, and that, yes, I don't know, I guess the whole thing of Bronny with LeBron will be a thing at the end of the day. So if you're a Phoenix Suns fan right now, you're like, "Are we getting LeBron James?"
1:38
I mean, this might be like Matt Ishbia just thinking like, "Oh, if I draft his son, like, he'll have to come here, and then I get LeBron, too." That Pablo Torres, Matt Ishbia podcast is awesome.
1:48
Yeah, that was a really good show. All right, this is going to be awesome because we have regionals determined now in college baseball. Matt Grissom joins us from Arkansas.
1:57
He is the, uh, the emperor of collegebaseballinsiders.com. He joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. What's happening, Matt? Oh, can we just go back and you read old Bill Walton quotes?
2:09
[laughs] That was the greatest segment on television. [laughs] He's so great. Uh, rest in peace, Bill. Yeah, man.
2:15
Uh, and, and in great fashion, the last Pac-12 event ended, I believe, on Sunday with a walk-off in the ninth, and then Bill Walton died the next day, so. Uh, he didn't wanna live in a world without Pac-12 after dark.
2:29
That was the line that I used. He didn't wanna live in a world without the Pac-12. Yeah. It's, uh, it- Right. Yeah May he rest in peace.
2:35
By the way, and, and I just, this'll, last thing about this, but he, I've never, when someone passes away, you know, I said it was melancholy. I've never seen so many people sm- universally smile about a guy, right?
2:48
Like he was just beloved, uh, for- Yeah... all kinds of reasons. By the way, he had a broadcasting career. He had a horrible stutter early on. He couldn't- Wow...
2:56
when he was in college, and even when the Blazers won the championship, he could barely speak. I, I didn't know that. That was well documented in the- Yeah... 30 for 30. That was pretty beast. Oh, it was amazing.
3:03
All right. Before we get to your plays, and you've got plays, and I love this. This is gonna be college baseball nirvana.
3:09
Explain, we try to do this every year, there are the regionals, then there are the super regionals, and then there is the College World Series where they have this fakakta bracket which we're gonna have to explain with a graphic.
3:20
By the way, in Arkansas, how many times do people use the word fakakta, by the way, Matt? Is that a well-used word? Not, not often. [laughs] Not often, okay. Maybe the first half of the word, but that's about it.
3:28
[laughs] Uh, the first third of it, yes. All right, so explain the regionals and the super regionals to us, please. All right, so it's real simple. Uh, you've got 64 teams. They're all seeded.
3:41
1 through 16 are your regional seeds. They're gonna play host to a two, three, and four seed. Now, it's not on an S curve. It's more geographical, kind of like we talked about.
3:52
So, uh, the number one overall seed may not get the worst four seed, so it's not on an S. But, uh, basically, you've got the top 16. They'll play in a double elimination tournament, and then
4:07
the, the team that survives, you say, well, uh, top eight national seeds, they'll be the regional host or for the super regional host, and unless they lose, and then it will go to the, the higher seeded or lower seeded host.
4:24
So, uh, for instance, one is going to be matched up against the 16. That's Tennessee is your number one overall seed. 16 is the Greenville region with East Carolina.
4:34
If both teams win, ECU will go to Knoxville to play in the super regional. But if, uh, if Southern Miss pulls the upset over Tennessee, then, uh, ECU would then host. So it's very confusing. Oh.
4:48
And then you've got the same sort of format in Omaha. So you go for the top eight teams that win in the super regionals, which is a best of three.
4:58
They'll go on, and they'll play the first half of the bracket pretty much in a double elimination, and then if they make it to the championship game, that's when they'll pay, they'll play the best of three series for the national championship.
5:09
Now, I'm sure that was simple to you, but I'm guessing most of the audience, their heads just exploded. It's- Yeah...
5:14
you know, six years of doing this, I still have to stop and think of, all right, what are, what are we doing here? [laughs] Do you have to win, or do you, can you lose one?
5:24
Um, yeah, it's, it's total chaos, but it makes for a very entertaining weekend. You can watch squeeze play on ESPN. That's like a Octabox, like NFL RedZone type, just watch eight games at once. It's, it's amazing.
5:41
And- You've gotta tune in to it...
5:42
and, and forgive me if you included this, but the, the regionals is double elimination, and the super regionals is a best of three, and then it's the weird bracket for a College World Series. Correct.
5:54
Okay, let's get to the regionals. You have not one, not two, but six, count 'em, six bets. Let's start at the top, and you can give us an explanation for each. So the first one I, I noticed was Georgia.
6:09
They were one and done in the SEC tournament. They were projected eight seed going into it. Uh, when they lost, I kinda assumed the committee would push them back a little bit.
6:20
They actually improved their ranking, which for us, who hopped on Georgia to win the College Wo- or to win the College World Series and to make it to Omaha bet, they actually have, in my opinion, one of the easiest paths to get there.
6:34
They're in a regional where they host against their rival in Georgia Tech, and then UNC Wilmington is the two seed. Army is the four. I think they, they pretty much have a cakewalk through their, their own regional.
6:47
So Georgia minus 115 just made sense to get through there. And then Texas A&M. You look at the top seeds, Texas A&M's the number three overall seed hosting. They did get the Texas Longhorns in their own regional,
7:00
uh, as well as Louisiana for the s- the two seed, and then Grambling. But Texas A&M is just far and away better. This is a team that ranks fifth in team weighted runs created plus, and third in team Sierra.
7:15
Uh, your next closest is Louisiana, 53rd and 27th. I just think Texas A&M gets right at home and they walk through that. Minus 140 was way cheap compared to the other sports books that had odds out.
7:27
I saw it as high as minus 190. And then Oregon State. Oregon State, one of the only Pac-12 teams that are hosting with Arizona, who was kind of as a shock to some. But, uh, I think Oregon State is just set up nicely.
7:41
They've got UC Irvine, and then Nicholls State, Tulane in there. Oregon State eight and two in their last 10. They rank third in team weighted runs created.
7:50
They're just in a totally different ballpark than the rest of this regional, so getting a little plus money there. And then Duke. Duke is a team that is going to be, I feel like, just a lighted fire under them.
8:04
They probably should've hosted. Honestly, they, they worked them- their selves into it. They won the ACC tournament, uh, in just great fashion. Duke is getting their ace back in Jonathan Santucci.
8:18
He threw in the pen last weekend. Plus 115 to get through Oklahoma's regional. I'm not buying Oklahoma.
8:25
This may be a- another one that you bet game by game, but Duke is, is far and away better on the stats page than Oklahoma. 16th in team weighted runs created, 19th in pitching, compared to 50 and 54 for Oklahoma.
8:39
So take Duke to get through that. And then our darling Oklahoma State, the team that just continues to not lose. Uh, it's beautiful. They are plus 105 in their own regional, where they are paired up against,
8:53
uh, Nebraska. Florida, who should not have gotten in. Florida's 28 and 27 on the year. That was a, a committee doing them a favor. Boo. And then Niagara. Politics. Boo, Gators, boo. Uh, it is.
9:06
Oklahoma, yeah, and they have a committee member on board, shocker. Uh, Oklahoma State, 13th ranked in team weighted runs created, second in team Sierra. The next closest to them is Nebraska at 58 and 25th.
9:19
These are just teams that are p- are way better, and they're playing at home, and you're getting plus money. This is crazy.
9:26
And then the number two seed that I think has the best chance of getting through, it's Mississippi State. You've got Kyle Steven. You've got Yourngelo Santilli, the ambidextrous pitcher.
9:38
This is a Mississippi State team that was really in their, i- in the conversation of being a regional host. They didn't get it.
9:48
They go to Virginia, who Virginia's kind of been night and day different, uh, just depending on what you get. They dropped a home series I think two weekends ago. I think Mississippi State plus 145 is a solid play.
10:02
I, I just can't see them at least not pushing Virginia into a, a potential game three elimination type.
10:09
And a team that ranks sixth nationally in Sierra, uh, verse a team that is 17th in hitting, that should, it should make for a very fun game that'll end up deciding the winner of that regional. All right.
10:22
And I'll back the SEC team every time. Georgia, Texas A&M, Oregon State, Duke, Oklahoma State, Mississippi State.
10:31
They're all up on the screen, but for those not watching, those are your six bets in their respective regionals. And refresh our memory, Matt, how many bets do you have right now to win it all? I have about nine.
10:45
Oh, man. Yeah. I try to spread around, get a little value here and there. Uh, I think my latest one I took was Oklahoma State, 60 to 1 still. That, the price is just way too high.
10:58
And then of course I've got, got some Arkansas, 10 to 1, 12 to 1, uh, plus 750. Uh, but Tennessee, I've got them, Tennessee plus 1750 before the season started, then I hit them again for 10 to 1.
11:13
Uh, North Carolina, 30 to 1. I'm sitting here looking at the board and, and who's got the easiest path. I still think there's a ton of value on Oklahoma State.
11:24
Um, this is a team that's got the total package, and they are just playing out of their minds right now. It kind of re- resembles the TCU run of last year. Matt, appreciate it.
11:34
So Oklahoma State the, uh, most recent of those College World Series plays. Thank you for the regional plays, man. Enjoyed it. Absolutely, guys. Thanks for having me on.
11:44
Matt Grissom @grissomonx on Twitter, collegebaseballinsiders.com. French Open props next.
11:56
Back on a Numbers Game, brought to you by, of course, the, uh, good folks over at Zyn, presented by Zyn Nicotine Pouches, America's number one nicotine pouch. Find out more at zyn.com. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin
12:10
It's B-Y-D-E-L-O-N, everybody That's right Bydelon. Lexi Thompson will retire at the end of this LPGA season. Really? Yeah. Wow.
12:19
What was that Lexi Thompson thing that happened in one of those tournaments back in the day? Do you remember that? There was a whole... We, we had a Lexi Thompson discussion once on a numbers game.
12:29
There was a specific thing that happened in a tournament. I don't remember. Yeah. And I was doing stories- I-... on her when she was, like, 15. She was down in South Florida. She was s- phenom. Yeah.
12:38
29 years old, though, gotta remember. 29 years old, she's had enough of it. We get tweets at Beating The Book. Um, Blake, GM of the week, "Gil, taking seven friends to Vegas for a homie's birthday.
12:49
Any way we could get the name of the sushi spot?" I don't know if they can handle seven. Seven. Yeah. Oh, boy. Don't know if they can handle seven. Stay, stay out of jail and the ER.
12:58
[laughs] Get that many, you get that many people coming, th- those are your two goals. Peter Watry, "Really enjoy Matt Grissom. Side note, could we, uh, get subtitles during his segment? Nice guy."
13:08
[laughs] What, you didn't understand Matt? He's awesome. I thought it was a good, uh, it was a good line he had at the beginning. [laughs] I did too.
13:15
Uh, Brian Moranian, uh, "Having Grissom, uh, describe the College World Series just, uh, brings me back to Baseball's Denzlo Cup." Do you remember that, uh- [laughs] What a great movie. The Denzlo Cup...
13:27
in the Southwest Division East Northern. [laughs] Oh, man. And then Milwaukee goes to the Denzlo Cup. Uh, Jason H11, "Yeah, pretty, uh, sure that college baseball segment gave me an aneurysm. Got sushi?" Why do people...
13:40
Oh, I think it was the explanation of the, uh, the format. Yes. Yeah, yeah. That's what I mean. Yeah, no, it's...
13:44
Trust me, I'm there every year, and you point a- I almost wanted to halt you, because it's the, it's not even worth c- yeah, exactly, halt. Halt, Gil, halt.
13:52
Um, 'cause it's almost not even worth explaining the craziness of the College World Series till you get there. Oh, no. The regionals and the super-regionals aren't that bad. That's why I said for Count Dracula. Yeah.
14:01
We'll get to that when we get to that, but it's double elimination regionals. Yeah, you got four teams in each regional, double elimination. Best of three in the super-regionals. You're correct, yeah. Okay.
14:10
That's all you need to know for now. Uh- I think what, what we said during the break, I think what really screws people up is you just go the regionals, the super-regionals look very different from the regionals, right?
14:19
And then the College World Series looks very different from the super-regionals. Yeah. You gotta navigate it all, and you gotta have your pitching in the proper intact order. Mm-hmm.
14:28
Mike Alvarez, always love Mikey, "The College Baseball Championship is confusing. Can we go back to ta- uh, talking simple things like parimutuel betting and dead heat rules?" [laughs] That's right.
14:39
Uh, speaking of which, we'll get to with the Guardians here coming up. Um, yeah, those aren't fun either. Thank you for reminding me. All right.
14:46
I, I could have every horse bettor on the planet tell me how it's in, it's in my favor to bet the parimutuel market, and I will refuse to do it every step of the way, Gil, as long as someone's offering me fixed odds.
14:56
I, I... It only, all you gotta, it's kind of like dead heat, right? Yeah. All that, it has to happen to you just one time, where you're like, "Oh, I bet this horse at 15 to 1."
15:05
And they're like, "Wait, why'd I just get paid for three to one? What, what are you talking about?" Dead- Like, it happens to you one time, and then you're like, "I'm never doing this again."
15:11
The dead- If you're not a big horse guy... the dead heat is, is particularly deflating in sports betting. It's brutal. Yeah. It's brutal. We did the math one day and we won't do it again, I promise.
15:19
Uh, all right, uh, French Open props. Come on Kiki Mladenovic, hold your serve. Get it together. Um, sorry, just a brief aside.
15:28
So French Open, uh, you can still bet this not only match to match, uh, but obviously there are props that are still up in multiple, uh, locations. DraftKings does such a great job of stuff like that. Great job.
15:38
I, I love throwing this stuff together, throwing it at you, and making you answer this stuff. Well, you can make- There's so many great, like, so many different options, but you never go to look to bet it, right?
15:46
I cannot guarantee that there's going to be a bet here. Sure, sure. But you'll throw them at me, so here we go. French Open on the men's side. W- okay, so you have a field bet. Yep.
15:55
Alcaraz, Djokovic, and Sinner minus 200. The field is plus 150. So in the field you would have the likes of Casper Ruud, Sascha Zverev, and if you're a Stefanos Tsitsipas guy, I guess you could add him in there as well.
16:09
I am not. Um- So-... that's about right... so you have bets on Alcaraz, Djokovic. If Ruud was in there instead of Sinner and you were getting, like, minus 150, would you bet that? If you didn't have your bets already.
16:22
More likely to. More likely to. Because Ruud and Djokovic play in the quarters, so I would be gu- well, will, in, in my estimation, will play in the quarters, and so I would be guaranteed in my mind a semifinalist.
16:34
Gotcha. Okay. Um, I just don't, the, the problem here is that, I mean, a lot of people think Sascha Zverev is the guy. Sascha Zverev coming off a win last week on clay. Um, so they might consider a field bet.
16:47
But y- I would just say if you believe in Zverev, just bet Zverev at a much better number than this. I don't like either side of this bet. Gotcha. Don't like either side of it.
16:58
Um, but I think, okay, the price is about where it should be. Right. Okay. Unseeded player to reach final. No, of course not. N- no is minus 1,200. Okay, so I- We can go through that one...
17:07
I wanted to include this one because, like, without even knowing, right, I thought that same thing, right? That seven to one seemed a little silly on this for a yes price. Is the no price bettable at that number?
17:19
I mean, kind of. Right. Okay. That, that's kind of what... That's more what I wanted to bring it up. Let's put it this way, if Steve Fezzik were here, I would say, "Stevie, have at it." Right.
17:25
Like, is that a Fezzik bet written all over it? That's a, that's a Fezzik bet. Yeah. No minus 1,200. That's why I wanted to include that.
17:31
There is, there, the chances of an unseeded player winning the Men's French Open, come on.
17:36
And less likely, and that was, I'm glad you just said it that way, less likely for it to happen on the men's side than the women's side, right? I would say. Okay. Even though Iga exists on the women's side- Right.
17:45
Right... I would still say it's less likely on the men's side. Winning half, top half plus 110, bottom half minus 140. I'm sorry to tell you, Kelly, but that's accurately priced.
17:53
Because, um, the top half, if we're doing a, uh, quarter by quarter here or a half by half on the men's side, Joker, uh, uh, Novak Djokovic, Casper Ruud, Sascha Zverev, and again, a guy that I have a quarter bet on, Johann, uh, Jan-Lennard Struff for instance, they're all on the top half.
18:13
So you got Djokovic and you got Ruud And you got Sascha Zverev. But on the bottom half, you've got Alcaraz, Sinner, Rublev, Tsitsipas, um, and then just a bevy of other, like, clay court specialists.
18:30
So I do think the bottom half should be a slight favorite, barely. Maybe minus 140 is a tick high, but not... There's no value, there's not enough value there to play. Gotcha. There shou- they should be the favorite.
18:42
Yes. Okay. Yeah. They- What about the quarters specifically? So I think the quarters are priced correctly. Okay.
18:47
'Cause the third quarter, when Drew and I did the, uh, the podcast, and when we talked about it here on the Numbers Game, quarter number three has, is the most top-heavy.
18:54
It has Alcaraz, Rublev, Tsitsipas, Ben Shelton, OJ Aliassime, Pedro Martinez, that kind of thing.
19:01
But it's got Rublev, Tsitsipas, and Alcaraz, and w- Tsitsipas is the ninth seed, I believe, and so there was always gonna be one quarter that had the extra player- Hmm...
19:12
that was going to be the top-heaviest, and that's the one, third quarter. So that i- that should be the short shot. But that doesn't include, it, unless I missed a name, right, Alcaraz?
19:20
Alcaraz is the only guy you actually bet on, right, in that quarter? Yes, correct. Is there any of the other quarters that has two of your guys?
19:27
Q1 is the one, if, if you are forcing me to make a bet here, I would bet, I would bet first quarter. Because that's got Djokovic and Ruud in it. Gotcha, okay.
19:34
And again, the r- the play there is because I think they're meeting in the quarterfinals, and so having one of those guys, Ruud back-to-back finalist, finalist here at French Open.
19:45
So that plus 240 on the first quarter, um, but again, I've got... You could bet each of them singularly at much- Right... sexier numbers. Yeah. Right?
19:57
So again, that's only if you're forcing me to bet, that's the one I'd bet first quarter. Ladies' side, do we have some equivalents to this on the ladies' side? Yeah, I mixed, I mixed it up with the- Oh, good idea...
20:04
the ladies' side. There's so many different, uh, ones. I like, I always like these, the who will advance further bets. Well, first the field. Kinda match bets.
20:10
First the field bet is Swiatek, Sabalenka, and Gauff at minus 550 versus the field. Uh, don't bother, just take Iga. [laughs] No jab. I'm, I'm just saying.
20:19
And if you have someone you like besides Iga, just take that player. Don't, don't bet this. Why, why is Gauff included there? Uh, she got, she got to a final here, but I just don't trust in Coco here.
20:30
Uh, her game has not been the same since the US Open. And who will advance further? Okay, Swiatek versus Sabalenka. Well, you know Iga should be the, uh, the finalist. I mean, the, uh, the favorite.
20:40
Now, if you think they're meeting in the final, and if you think that that's a favorable price on Sabalenka, then you would bet Sabalenka here, I suppose.
20:48
But to me, there's not a bet there because I think Swiatek will be about that price against Sabalenka in a potential final. Uh, they're on each, they're on different sides of the bracket. Here's an interesting one.
20:59
Zheng Qinwen, the lovely and talented Zheng Qinwen. You should watch every match she's in, Kelly, by the way. Just point, should make you do.
21:06
Zheng Qinwen is minus 150 against Yelena Ostapenko, who won the French Open in 2017. Zheng is a minus 150 favorite. I hate to say it, that's accurate, because Ostapenko's next match is against Clara Tauson,
21:21
and Ostapenko is a favorite in that match, but she's probably not a big favorite. Let me see real quick. Do, do, do, do, do. Minus 160. Hmm.
21:31
Uh, and I think Clara Tauson might be live in that match, so I, I actually think that's correct. And then Ostapenko- Well if, so if anything, Zheng minus 150. Correct. Yeah.
21:39
Um, though Ostapenko, like Drew believes Ostapenko is gonna get far in this tournament. Okay. But I still think that's priced correct because of Ostapenko's next opponent.
21:48
And then Jabeur versus Badosa, man, I wouldn't bet Paula Badosa at anything because she is as likely to withdraw or come up with some injury or something.
21:58
And Ons Jabeur seems to, uh, she's not back to where she was, but she seems to have found a little something. Um, and if you look at the draw, it's also favorable for Jabeur.
22:07
Badosa, Badosa might not beat Katie Boulter today. So- Yeah, that's, that's just, that's a big price, I guess, in this market to look at.
22:14
Yeah, I wouldn't, I wouldn't bet it, but I certainly wouldn't take a flyer on Badosa either.
22:18
So to me, of all of those, I think Zheng Qinwen at minus 150 against Ostapenko, and I do think if you made me bet a quarter in the f- in the men's side, I would say Q2, Q1, which is the second short shot.
22:30
I like these, though, 'cause if you actually thought that, that that's what the number was gonna be for Iga in the final, this, uh, this isn't a bad bet at, at minus 400. Ron serving the second set with Kiki Mladenovic.
22:41
Come on. Paul Spoor next on Major League Baseball. We'll update the Guardians too. For a limited time only, we're slashing the price of our annual subscription. Normally, it's $240. Normally. That's on a normal day.
22:53
This isn't normal. You can now secure your subscription for just $199. Sign up today, we'll throw in an extra two months for free.
23:01
That's 14 months of VSiN Pro access for less than 50 cents a day when you use promo code ANG, but you gotta hurry. It ends Friday. That's when the special offer expires. Expires. Expires May 31st this Friday.
23:14
[laughs] With VSiN Pro, you'll get immediate access to only daily best bets, [laughs] uh, to our daily best bets, I should say, complete with a leaderboard showcasing the hottest VSiN experts, betting splits that reveal where the money and bets are trending for every game, exclusive betting systems, premium analysis, 24/7 video content.
23:28
Remember, the offer expires Friday, this Friday, May 31st. So visit vsin.com/subscribe now to grab your 14 months of VSiN Pro for just $199 with promo code ANG. ANG, like A Numbers Game. That's vsin.com/subscribe.
23:43
It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin. Uh, time to update the Guardians. It is May 28th. Boom, boom, boom.
23:50
Yesterday, not a good day, because the Cleveland Guardians' nine-game winning streak, 12 out of their last 13, the, the nine-game winning streak got snapped. Uh, they lose at Coors.
24:01
They had themselves a three to nothing lead and a four to one lead, but, uh, here's the thing about this monthly bet.
24:07
And by the way, shout out to Eric Biggio at, at William Hill Caesars, who, like, tweeted me the new June. Trolling you, yeah. He's totally trolling me. He's like, "I don't know, Gil, wanna look at June?"
24:15
[laughs] Hey, it's, uh, he's helping me out as a producer. [laughs] That's right. He's like, "We need the content."
24:21
Again, as your friend and a bettor, I w- I would tell nobody to force anything As a show producer though, this has been fun the past two months.
24:28
You, you enjoy seeing me come to the cusp of victory, only to get destroyed at the end. Uh, so the Guardians lose eight to six to the Rockies, and this is the trippy part about these monthly bets.
24:38
Uh, Stephen Vogt, the, uh, manager of the, uh, Tribe, he does not know that there's anything on the line, right? They're not- Right, yes, yes... they're not playing for the pennant, they're not playing for the division.
24:47
They're not playing for anything. It's, like, the end of a month, and only the bettors who have this bet knows this. So he left in Xavion Curry probably a couple batters too long yesterday. I'm like, "Take him out.
24:57
Take him out." Didn't take him out. Uh, so they lost their lead, and they lose eight to six. Now, here's the other thing that happened, though.
25:03
The other two teams that are involved, and by the way, there's only four teams that are, that are involved in this now. 26 have been eliminated from having the most wins in the month of May.
25:12
It's only the Phillies, Yankees, Guardians, and Royals. Well, not only do the Guardians lose, but so did the Royals, despite a furious comeback in the ninth. They lose to the Twins.
25:21
And then the Phillies got doubled up by the magic that is the San Francisco Giants, eight to four.
25:27
So I said yesterday on the show, even though the Yankees were in second place in the standings, that they're the real betting favorite at this point to win May. They're the big favorite now, in my opinion.
25:37
The Phillies and the Yankees are both 18 and six, but now the Yankees have four games left while the Phillies just have three games left.
25:45
So the Ya- and the Yankees, by the way, they got three at Anaheim to play the Angels before they go to San Francisco to have to contend with the magic that is the Giants.
25:54
But you got three at Anaheim, and so not only do you have the extra game, but you got the easy opponent. And so the Yankees are the betting favorite right now, both the Phillies and Yankees at 18 and six.
26:04
The Guardians are 17 and eight. The Royals are 16 and eight. They're the only other two teams that are in this. So we're still alive with the Guardians.
26:12
But here's what has to happen, because we could be eliminated tonight or we could be on life support after tonight. Here's essentially what'd have to happen. The Guardians would have to win their last three.
26:22
Just one scenario, right? Win their last three, two against the Rockies, one against the, uh, Nationals. The Phillies would have to go one and two. Okay, that's possible, 'cause they do have to play the Giants.
26:34
Uh, and the Royals would have to go three and one. Okay, that's possible. All, all possible at this point, except here's the problem. The Yankees would have to go one and three, and that is where the rub is.
26:48
Because the Yankees would have to go one and three, three against the Angels, one against the Giants. Uh, that's asking a lot. Yeah. It's asking a lot. We'll see. We've gotten this far, though. Good luck to all of us.
26:59
I mean, the only, the only, I mean, the only upside, I guess, for people that did bet in a dead heat shops, there's way- Oh, damn, I'm glad you brought that up... way less teams involved.
27:05
[laughs] I'm glad you brought that up. That's, that's for those of us who bet, who bet at Circa, where there are tiebreakers of fewest losses and, uh, run differential.
27:14
But for those who are at the dead heat shop that is William Hill Caesars and you have a Guardians bet, you could still dead heat this. You don't need to have those things happen, right?
27:21
You just have to get to the same amount of wins as the Phillies and Yankees. That is p- more possible.
27:27
It, it wasn't, it wasn't, in April, weren't, at this point, wasn't there still, like, six teams or something like that? Oh, it was much more of a scrum. Yeah, yeah. So, like, dead heat, you were gonna get crushed.
27:34
A- April 30th, there was, like, six or seven teams still in. Yeah. Okay, that's where we stand. Good luck to all of us. Paul Sporer joins us from Austin, Texas.
27:42
He's at FanGraphs, host of the Sleeper and the Bust podcast. He joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line @Sporer. Oh, he switched his hat to a Guardians hat. I saw what you did, Paulie. Thank you, sir.
27:54
[laughs] I got your back. What's going on, Gil? [laughs] He was wearing a Marlins hat, now all of a sudden it's the Tribe. Thank you so much. Um, okay. I, uh, let's start with DFS.
28:04
We usually close with DFS, but there is a game at Coors, that is the Guardians game. What would you play today at DFS? Yeah, I mean, obviously I'm always gonna be looking at the Coors.
28:13
Uh, now, I will say, at least anecdotally, I don't have all the data on it, I don't feel like Coors is yielding a ton of numbers. And yet- That's correct. That's correct, yeah...
28:23
it's partly because they suck so bad, um, so they're, you know, the Rockies themselves aren't really delivering the numbers.
28:28
But I feel like, in a weird way, some of their pitchers have stepped up there too and limited the opponents. That said, I'm still gonna look at some guards, but there's a lot of good pitchers going out there today.
28:37
Um, you know, you got Wheeler, Peralta, Reagan's, three bonafide aces. I'm, I'm inclined to lean one of them. Luis Castillo, Max Fried, two more aces up there.
28:46
They're even a bit cheaper if you're looking at the DraftKings board. I might go one of them to kinda save a little bit. Especially Fried. Fried's the cheapest of that group, so I'm definitely gonna look at him.
28:56
And then as far as teams to go, if you try to fade the Colorado game because the, the runs there haven't been massive, probably gonna go with a bunch of Phillies against the Giants, even though it's in San Francisco, they're hitting everywhere always, and, uh, Blue Jays against Mike Clevinger.
29:12
The Ronald Acuña injury. We were talking a little bit about this yester- on the show.
29:17
From a betting perspective, you know, I asked Marc Borchard, "Okay, does this mean the, you know, Phillies minus 150 to win the division?" He actually went the other way.
29:24
He's like, "The market has overreacted even with the movement that it has made," which wasn't, like, massive movement, but still was an overreaction in his estimation.
29:32
He actually thinks, uh, bet on Braves now that you're getting more favorable prices. Do you see it that way generally? I, I do like that. Uh, I think an overreaction doesn't surprise me at all.
29:44
That's exactly what I would expect to happen. We constantly, we as a betting community, fantasy community, baseball community, whatever you want, constantly overrate the impact of one player. Now, he is a god.
29:54
I'm not here, you know, negating any impact of Acuña. He's amazing. But didn't they win the World Series without him? That w- that was without him, yes? Am, am I, am I wrong that, that he was not part of that?
30:06
That's when they brought in Soler and everything. Um, I'm, I remember a huge run that the Reds made, this is a while ago, 'cause they were in contention, that they made without Joey Votto, right?
30:16
Like, one player in baseball, it's just not like it is in other sports. So I'm not surprised that, you know, the odds are gonna change a bunch. Everyone's gonna say fade, fade, fade the Braves.
30:25
I, I'm actually kind of open to leaning into it because they're not gonna fold. They're not just gonna pack it in and say, "Well, we lost Acuna. We're out." No.
30:34
Alex Anthopoulos is gonna go pull a rabbit out of his hat somewhere and, I don't know, I'm trying to think of, uh, a- an outfielder he could even get.
30:41
I almost said Brian Reynolds, but the Pirates are still kind of, like, in fringe contention now. They have, like, two aces. Uh, and they signed him, so they're, they're inclined to keep him.
30:48
But that was the, that was the default guy to say a team was gonna trade for for a while until they locked him in. But they're not going to cower. The Braves are going to put their foot to the pedal.
30:58
Uh, you know, so I'm really gonna say I would go further in on the Braves right now as opposed to fading them. And the interesting thing is with some of these markets, they're 15 to 1 to miss the playoffs.
31:10
So the, it's still, they're still a massive favorite to make the playoffs. Do you think 15 to 1 represents some value, though? To miss the... I, h- how are they gonna miss the playoffs, Gil? Well, because here's why.
31:22
Because [laughs] just the way you asked that question. Get 'em, Paul. Get 'em. Just the way you asked it was so mean. Um. I loved it. I think because, I'll, I'll put it this way, you still got three wild cards, right?
31:33
Mm-hmm. And can you find three wild cards? Well, the answer to that would be I can't in the East, but I could find one in the Central, right? Either the Brewers or Cubs, whoever doesn't make it there.
31:44
And could you, it comes down to could you find two in the West to have better records than the Braves, two of the Padres, Diamondbacks, Giants trio? Oh, eight Giants You're pr- well, here's the thing, you're probably...
31:58
You're, you're absolutely still a dog, right? But 15 to 1 as a no? Like, that- Uh... I mean, that's, that price is kind of nice, is what I'm saying. If it was five to one, I wouldn't ask. Sure.
32:12
It's, it's not a bad price. Like, you, you, you know, you're always thinking these angles, and I, I love that about you. I just don't see it. [laughs] So it's like, there's some times where
32:23
I get the principle and, and that alone kind of gets me hyped and I'll make, like, a half unit, quarter unit type bet. 'Cause I'm like, yes, the theory works here. Yeah.
32:32
But in practice, I, I just, I gotta be honest with you, Gil, and, and the listeners, I don't see it at all. Okay. So, like, I, I- That's why I ask...
32:37
I guess you're mapping out, but I wouldn't put any serious cheddar on it at all personally. All right. Would you, would you take them to win the division at a plus price? Phillies are minus 150. Yes.
32:47
That, I, again, I forget who you referenced earlier, pardon me to that gentleman, um, saying to go in on the Braves, but I wanna cosign what he's saying, 'cause I totally agree.
32:56
Everyone's gonna pivot away from them, understandably, 'cause they see, oh, big name is out. I'm going in. I trust Alex Anthopoulos. I trust the foundation that they have around him.
33:05
Again, they won the 2019 series without him. He only played half the season. Acuna, l- losing Acuna sucks. He's a god. The Braves, I don't think they're going anywhere. I think they're- Plus-...
33:14
more or less gonna be fine... plus 120 to win the division. By the way, real quick on the way out, who wins the AL West when all is said and done? Um, Texas. Texas does. Okay. The defending world champions. Plus 380.
33:26
Plus 380. Thank you, Paul. Appreciate it. Take care. We'll come back. We'll wrap things up with the NBA tonight. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:40
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33:49
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33:59
The crown is yours. Kelly. Kiki Mladenovic did not get there. She loses 6-4, 6-4 as a $4 dog. Come on, Kiki. Cost me a whole $20 this morning. Oh, that's what you bet on her, 20? Yeah, [laughs] 20 bucks.
34:13
That's how much confidence you had in my bet, 20 bucks? Well, I got in late. I got in when she was down a game already. Oh, okay. I was gonna say. So I had, like, plus 520.
34:20
I was like, "I'm gonna go a little lighter on this." Uh, we get tweets. We get a bunch of tweets.
34:24
Uh, this is from Kevin Ryan, "I am 66 and had the pleasure of watching Bill Walton play and listening to him announce, uh, for the Pac-12. I ran across him at the Phoenix Airport and he talked to me for 10 minutes."
34:39
These are always the s- these are all the stories I keep hearing. It's incredible. An icon has passed. Only thing, I didn't have an encounter with Bill Walton.
34:46
I w- I attended a, the Who concert here in Vegas, 'cause I was on a concert binge where I was like, "I'm gonna, I'm gonna watch concerts of genres I'm not into."
34:55
And there was Bill Walton two rows in front of me on the aisle, standing. That's awesome.
35:00
You know, the person behind him, I think the person behind him was just so thrilled to be behind Bill Walton that they didn't complain about it.
35:06
Uh, this is from C Oaks, "The final round of the World Series is basically a combination of the region, super region formats. Eight teams split into two regions, double elimination.
35:15
Winners of each play in a two out of three series for the title." Duh. That's easy. Isn't that simple? Oh, and Grissom jumped in. He goes, "What I should have done- [laughs]...
35:22
what I should have done to simplify the college baseball postseason could be summed up in one rule, 'Don't lose twice in one weekend and you're good.' That's the way to say it." There you go. Yeah. There you go.
35:31
Just don't lose twice in one weekend. Yeah. Yeah. Thank you, Matt Grissom. And then Logic3227, "How could you forget the biggest story of the day? Angel Hernandez retired. This day should be a national holiday." Yeah.
35:42
Uh, Angel Hernandez, uh, quote unquote, "retired". I think there was probably- But what does that mean? I think there was... Well, he retired. Like, he was pushed out? But I think there was a deal. Okay. That's my guess.
35:52
Like, maybe baseball finally realized maybe we shouldn't have this perception of us. Right. Yeah, yeah. Like, you're kind of hurting the game. Maybe a time to ta- time to take that golden watch.
36:01
And well, well, well, lookie here. People still get gold watches when they retire? [laughs] Does that, that happen anywhere? [laughs] You let me know when it happens.
36:11
Uh, well, well, well, Kelly Bidlin, Kendrick Perkins says that he's embarrassed he used his Defensive Player of the Year vote on Rudy Gobert. [laughs] And he calls it the biggest regret of his media career. Quote
36:29
When does the suit end? No, I'm kidding. [laughs] Quote, "He has tarnished the Defensive Player of the Year award. He has. He's not respected by his peers. We saw what happened to him in the Denver series.
36:41
He couldn't even guard the person at his position." Unquote. Well, thanks for nothing, Kendrick Perkins, 'cause some of us bet on this stuff. But I do appreciate the public mea culpa. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Me too.
36:53
Even though it cost us money. Me too. But this is what I said yesterday on this show, right? I think, I don't think you're hearing that from the DeMonis-Sabonis guy on anything.
37:00
That DeMonis-Sabonis guy's not apologizing for anything. I hear you. Th- th- this is where I think I, I feel like I'm always re- defending Rudy, 'cause I, I shouldn't be at all.
37:08
But, like, the thing with this series is he's, like, the fourth biggest problem on this team.
37:13
Like, Karl-Anthony Towns, oh my gosh, after this r- after this resurgence of a year, has just disappeared in the biggest moment, when he was arguably the biggest star of the Denver Nuggets series, series.
37:26
You know what he's shooting from three in this series? 13%. Yeah. What was the, what was the one I heard the Establish the Runs guys drop this morning?
37:34
He has a higher usage rate than his field goal percentage in this series, which is just [laughs] like something you don't hear. You never hear. One more thing. Steve Fezzik is angry.
37:46
He's very angry, and he's about to blow. [laughs] Blow. Steve Fezzik, uh, who, uh, can be heard on, uh, Sharp Money with, uh, Patrick Maher and Dustin Swedelson regularly, weekly- Yeah, every Monday... I believe.
37:56
Every Monday here on the network. Steve is the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest. Stevie comes on this show, and, uh, famously I, uh, challenge him on some of his, uh,
38:05
how can I put this, behavioral things. Mm. Uh, most recently I said to him, I go, "Stevie, does it mean more to you to make money or to call other people dumbos?" And he said, "Dumbos."
38:17
So this is, with that as a backdrop. [laughs] Let me just say this. Stevie texted in, he goes, "I strongly disagree with your baseball experts." He says, "The markets are going nuts on the Phillies with good reason.
38:30
I bet my blanks off minus 150 and minus 175 to win the division. Phillies will be minus 300 by mid-June. No Strider, no Acuna." So there's his point.
38:41
He's thinking it's gonna move further, so he's grabbing the best of it now. That, that was my one question on that. He says, "Instead of winning 102 games, Atlanta's only gonna win 92, and Philly's gonna win over 100.
38:50
Your guys are on crack," he said. There it comes with the name-calling and the characterizations. He can't help himself. Um- Yeah...
38:58
he says, "Bookmakers asleep at the wheel, allowing me to bet these at less than minus 200." Allowing him, Stevie, to bet it at less than minus 200.
39:10
Um, he said, uh, to use your phrase, "These guys are too close to the sun." Um, and he disagrees with them strongly. Well, Stevie has an opinion on it, and by the way, I understand Stevie's point.
39:20
Yeah, I mean, it sounds like you lean that way a little bit too, right? Yeah. The, the reason I keep bringing it up is because 15 to 1 for them to miss the playoffs is a good price to me.
39:33
I was wondering about, you know, like, I brought up the Phillies a couple times even before the Acuna injury. So that was the one I gravitated more towards, was the, was Phillies in the division.
39:42
Listen, I, I was saying during March, April, when we had the Guardians bet, I was like, the, you watch these games every night. The Braves appear to be the best team in baseball.
39:49
I, I'm convinced the Braves are the best team in baseball, but that assumes- You did say that... that assumes that they're at full strength and that everybody's playing well.
39:57
Now Acuna, even before the injury, something was wrong with him, and that became more apparent. I w- I did keep saying, I was like, "Oh, Zun is the best player on this team right now."
40:05
Um, but baseball's a funny sport, and just because it's there on paper doesn't mean that it's all gonna work.
40:13
And they don't have Strider, and they don't have Acuna, and that's their best pitcher, and that's their best hitter overall.
40:17
Do think it's interesting between what, what Steve said and what Paul said, how many ga- how many games in baseball is a player like that worth? Well, St- so Steve says- How many wins?...
40:27
it's gotta be w- Steve says it's gotta be worth at least four wins, he says. Okay. Well, I mean, there are ways to quantify this, right? It's called WAR. Right. But problem with WAR is it's not a stat I like.
40:36
It's not uniform. FanGraphs has a WAR. Baseball Perspective has a WAR. The two do, do not meet. Yeah, yeah. So there's a bit of subjectivity to it. Um, but yes, they are, every player is worth certain amount of wins.
40:53
Um, sometimes it's negligible. Other times it's not so negligible.
40:57
Um, so that's Stevie's point, and so that's why he's betting it, 'cause he's taking the best of it, 'cause he thinks it will only go in that direction here in the short term. So there you go.
41:05
So that's, uh, one man's opinion versus another. That's why we talk about these things. All right, uh, finally, game four. Let's, uh, go back to where we started as we close out here.
41:13
Game four of the Western Conference Finals. Mavericks leading the Timberwolves three to nothing in their best-of-seven Western Conference Finals in a g- a series where T-Wolves should have themselves
41:25
a win or two or maybe even three along the way, but they don't. And so the Mavericks on the cusp. Again, 155 and 0 for teams up three to nothing to close things out.
41:35
Only four times has a team even forced a game seven when down three to nothing. That's what the Timberwolves are up against. Mavericks are either a one-and-a-half or two-point favorite here, Kelly.
41:43
The total's at two 10 and a half. You've got Mavericks futures. Yep. If you did not, how would you play this? I don't, yeah, I don't, side is very tough in this game.
41:51
I, it, as we keep, I mean, we've been saying this throughout this series. I think Minnesota's extremely live, just like they've been every single game.
41:59
I think kinda like we saw last night, I don't expect this, this team to completely give up. Um, sidewise, I w- it, no, there would be no bet for me. There is no bet for me.
42:09
There would be no bet for me even if I didn't have Mavericks tickets going. Total, I, I've kinda leaned over all along too. I know that was Drew's thought at the beginning of the series too- Yeah...
42:17
with the, with the game one, uh, total. I, I kind of agree with him. I, every game it's kinda been looked more, more to an overlook, uh, than under. I did bet one player prop tonight.
42:26
I bet Naz Reid over his points, 12 and a half. Um, this is ano- this is another one. I heard, heard Establish g- uh, the Run Guys talking about. I completely agree.
42:34
You gotta figure out something with Kat in this game quick. And I think that means you're probably gonna see a lot of, a lot of offensive play calls, action run for him in the first quarter.
42:45
And either he's got it or you gotta put him on the bench. And you got, Naz Reid is one of the only guys who's effectively scoring for this team.
42:52
And yes, he hurts you on the defensive side of the ball, but man, you've got Karl-Anthony Towns out there who's hurting you on both sides right now.
42:58
So I, I think it's gonna be really interesting to see what they do with the bigs tonight too, uh, bigs tonight overall, Gil, because I, whether it's Gobert or Kat, I think there's times where you, uh, you could easily have made a case over the past couple games, man, you gotta get them off the court, get, uh, getting Naz Reid, uh, or even Kyle Anderson or any of these guys back on there who are just frankly playing better right now.
43:19
So, uh, I like Naz Reid over his points. I, I played over 12 and a half. I think I saw his 15 plus at, like, plus 150.
43:25
I, I think if you're playing over on Naz, you gotta sprinkle the alts too, 'cause if you're thinking like I'm thinking, he's gonna m- be a much bigger part, uh, of the offense tonight. So played that one.
43:34
That, that's really the only thing I'm looking at though, uh, here tonight. I think it's gonna be really, that Karl-Anthony Towns story, man, it's, it's fascinating. 'Cause can you,
43:43
with this team moving forward, can you throw a guy, can you bench a guy in this type of moment, you know, in a playoff series of that star power? Some people, some people, some people say you should sit Gobert too.
43:52
I know. Like, there's all kinds of things. That's what I'm saying, but you could completely screw up the future trajectory of this franchise, right? That Kendrick Perkins mea culpa,
44:02
I know we're doing a show and I'm laughing about it, but it's kind of left a mark on me. I'm like, yep, I talked about this yesterday. We've talked about it for months now. Yeah. No one's in it.
44:12
Everyone's voting for Wembanyama last year, and all the reasons for not voting him are gonna be out the window. Ah. It's VSiN, the sports betting network.
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