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May 28, 2025
A Numbers Game | May 28, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 28, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. So all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:08
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 158. We do not particularly care which way you access us.
0:21
We are just grateful to you that you do take the time to, uh, access us on any of those networks, or I guess they are not all networks, but platforms- Platforms, yes... I should say.
0:31
It would make my day, though, if one, one time, one time, one of you could just take a video of, like, six different devices- All of them... going with it. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. See if they sync up. Mm-hmm.
0:39
That wouldn't be annoying at all, yeah. Uh, Steve Fezzik's able to join us. Not a Fezzik Friday, but a Fezzik Wednesday. He's got, uh, lots on his mind.
0:46
We'll get into it with Stevie Fezzik, uh, whatever's on his mind sports betting-wise. Uh, this is, uh, we get tweets at BeatyingTheBook. This is from Steven @brosek1870.
0:57
Was that the Will Hill 11 to one Aaron Judge MVP anniversary pick? Oh, did he, was he on the Yankees today? I'd have missed it. Was he on? I don't know. No.
1:07
Uh, yeah, w- was it a little more than a year ago, he had, uh, Aaron Judge to win the MVP. I wanna say it was 14 to one. Might be short-changing him on that.
1:14
Uh- I, uh, I got involved for the second straight year in betting against Aaron Judge. It was real smart last year. You remember that whole story? I still don't regret this bet. Yeah.
1:23
Like, I don't, I guess, tough to say when you lose a bet. No. But remember we were sitting here, like, last year and all the spring training, he had, like, a foot injury. A toe injury.
1:30
And he said on the record how this was gonna bother him through the entire season, and I was like- And we, we actually, when Jason was on, we'd be like, "I, were we not making enough of this toe injury?" Right, yeah.
1:38
Right? And I was like, "Okay, I'm betting under on his home runs," because, like, if your guy's literally telling me, "This is gonna bother me the, in the entire season," I'm gonna bet it.
1:45
Of course, he made me look stupid. And, uh, yesterday, not that they only, uh, took a few bucks- Oh, yeah... but I did bet the no on the Triple Crown. But they only took a few bucks on it. Like, literally. So bad.
1:55
So stupid. By the way, Will Hill does chime in. He says, "It was 16 to one," he said just now on Twitter. [laughs] Uh, this is from Aya Oya, uh, Aya Oya69J. Uh, he says, uh, "Call me Matt," he says. Okay. Hey, Matt.
2:07
"Sign me up any day for eating dry cereal. Top five dry cereals." You want a list? Five- Oh, I'm in, oh, I'm interested in this. I've, I've got thoughts, too. He got f- he says, "Five, fruit-" Golden Grahams.
2:17
You want, you wanna hear his list, or you wanna just shout out names? Is there [laughs] A little bit of both. Okay. Five, Froot Loops. Okay. I, uh, that one works. That one works. Four, Lucky Charms.
2:26
Meh, better with milk. Three, Honey Nut Cheerios. That one works. Two, Captain Crunch. That one works. It's gotta help the roof of your mouth, though. Yeah. And number one, and I agree with this, Frosted Flakes.
2:36
Absolutely. That one works. Yeah. Yeah, that, that's a solid list. He also says, "Ranch on cereal, kinda gross." Kevin Ryan, "Gil, I was a longtime Cox cable subscriber until I gave YouTube a try.
2:46
Night and day difference. Cut the ties and you will thank me." I don't have Cox Cable, but I s- I still- I've gotta do that, yes...
2:51
I still rely on Cox for my Wi-Fi, for my internet, and that is in, so everything I have is streaming, right, on Roku, with YouTube TV and everything, but I rely on them for my internet, and it just does not, it's done.
3:02
I think my router is shot. That's what I think happened. I gotta redo my whole setup. Yeah. It, it's a disaster. [laughs] I got a few TVs going.
3:08
Like, one of them, if you walked in my place right now, you'd be like, "Hey, Kelly, is that TV, like, why does one TV look like it's 20 years older than the other one?" I'd be like, "'Cause it is." 'Cause it is.
3:18
Uh, okay, yesterday, by the way, in case you missed it, I, I made three College World Series outright bets. Yeah, you did. [laughs] Yes, I did. Yeah, you did. Just like Flavor Flav, "Yeah, you did."
3:28
[laughs] Um, Vandy was one of them, the number one team in the country. Uh, by the way, l- I don't think I've ever talked about this website here on air. We wanna give you a college baseball website.
3:36
I know we have Matt Grissom on. He has collegebaseballinsiders.com. By the way, I'm thrilled to hear that Matt, um, is now doing things with vsin.com- Yeah... and Adam Burke. College Baseball Betting Guy.
3:46
So we're, we're pumped about that. Yeah. But before I ever even knew who Matt Grissom was, I w- And he'll be on with us Friday... and he'll be on with us Friday.
3:52
Uh, you may remember here, again, three years ago, Ole Miss 100 to one to win it all. Brad Porus and I, uh, getting that home, which is just a, one of the great runs ever, a hotty toddy run.
4:01
We're forever grateful to Ole Miss. Uh, but so I made three picks, and I relied on a, on a website at that time also, not only D1 Baseball, but, uh, warrennowlin.com. Are you familiar with warrennowlin.com? No.
4:13
Sort of like an analytics-ish site for college baseball, but not only is Vanderbilt the number one team in the country, but, uh, based on ELO and RPI, they are also number one in both of those categories.
4:24
So at plus 950, I bet them to win the College World Series yesterday, Jensen Lewis' Vanderbilt Commodores. Jensen Lewis, of course, co-host with Dave Ross of By The Books, which precedes us.
4:34
By the way, Jensen is so into it. He, like he's, he is, he is so immersed in this, far more than I am, and he's on his way to Athens, Georgia for the regionals. He will make his way to Omaha as well.
4:45
So Vanderbilt, 42 and 16 Commodores. I have it plus 950 that I made at, uh, Circa here. We're showing plus 650 up at, uh, current- currently at FanDuel. Search for the best number you can find.
4:56
Vandy's still, I think, [clears throat] in the nine to one range at Circa, if I'm not mistaken, so again, shop around for these. The second one I made was Texas.
5:04
Now I am prepared to just get s- you know, completely saddened by this one. But Texas, sixth in ELO, fourth in RPI, um, fourth in predicted RPI. By the way, Vandy first in predicted RPI. Texas was also plus 950.
5:18
[clears throat] You can get them at a better number here at FanDuel, 10 to one. So I made a bet on Texas to win it all.
5:22
And then the long shot flyer, the a la Ole Miss 2022 long shot flyer, is not Ole Miss, by the way, which I considered, but is instead Northeastern. Northeastern, 22nd in RPI, but fourth in ELO.
5:37
Uh, I took about 125 to one here at Circa. So, um, and by the way, you know, we talk about all, all the shops.
5:44
Cir- Circa was not willing to take, uh, the biggest bet that I wanted on it either, I should point out, at those odds. So, um, there's a little of that going around. This is an interesting side monitor right now.
5:55
So bl- looking at the ELO ra- uh, ratings here. Uh, Coastal Carolina, but they are, they're actually not that far down the odds board, right? I saw them yesterday. Um-
6:07
By the way, I should mention, I, I throw out ELO ratings as if everybody knows Yeah, yeah, yeah...
6:10
ELO rating's a way to sort of mathematically, uh, assess the relative skill of players, uh, in zero-sum games where one player wins, the other loses. It is team by team, player by player, team by team.
6:24
So it's a, it's an analytical way of looking. There, there's formulas. I won't, I will spare you from formulas. Um, so anyway, it's, it's just a more analytical approach to things.
6:33
So anyway, those are the three teams, Vanderbilt, Texas, and Northeastern. I don't understand. Why, why has- I think I played five.
6:39
The year that Ole Miss won it, w- I played five teams that year, and Ole Miss was the longest shot of them all. So here we got three teams.
6:45
I think DraftKings for the past couple days has had, had down at least, all this stuff changes state to state, don't ask me why, but they, they haven't had outright odds up. Who has, who has not? FanDuel. DraftKings.
6:56
Really? The past two days. Wow. Yeah. That's interesting. I keep getting tricked 'cause I go there first and I'm looking to pull up odds on something and they don't have them up. Hmm. Okay. Um, okay.
7:05
I might add on some Florida State. Coastal Carolina is who I was looking for 'cause they're up there, up there. You know, it's funny, I considered them as well. Who, Coastal? Coastal, yeah.
7:12
Yeah, 'cause they're up there, up there in the ELO ratings, so they're 31 to one though. I mean, the College World Series history is littered with teams, you know, like the, the, you know, of that ilk, right?
7:22
They don't have to be ma- you know, big conference teams either, although the SEC is so dominant here. Southern Miss was the one I was looking for 'cause they're, they're, they are, what are they, ranked eighth on this?
7:32
Yeah, eighth in ELO rating, and they are- Yeah... 50 to one. It's v- it's, uh, this, you, you juxtapose it against the odds. You actually watch these games, too, of course.
7:41
Uh, Jensen, uh, Jensen Lewis, he, uh, he texted me. There's also a prop. I can't remember where he said this was, at FanDuel maybe. And Jensen joining us tomorrow.
7:49
Jensen joining us to talk college baseball with us from- From Athens... Athens, Georgia. Oh my gosh. Yeah. Ath- Athens, Georgia, not Athens, Greece.
7:55
Um, but he, he was saying there's a prop, will a four seed out of one of these regionals, will a four seed, uh, get to the College World Series, I believe was the, uh- Oh, that's interesting... was the prop.
8:07
And it was, like, nine to one or something like that. I hope I'm, I hope I'm saying that prop correctly. And at first I was like, "Oh my God, are you kidding me? To get to the College World Series?"
8:16
And apparently it, it has not happened that often in the history. Huh. Yeah, so I was like, I was like, "Oh, I shouldn't be that excited about it."
8:22
[laughs] Uh, how about, okay, NBA, I know we've talked a lot NBA, but potential now, potential NBA finals lookahead prices, okay?
8:31
So these are not potential lookaheads, these are the actual lookaheads of potential match-ups I should say- Yeah... to be more accurate. All right.
8:37
Thunder against the Pacers, who again have the three to one lead, both the Thunder or the Pacers do, obviously. Thunder against the Pacers.
8:43
Thunder is minus 525, Pacers four to one on the comeback, and not much different at all against the Knicks.
8:50
$5 favorite versus the Knicks plus 380, so a slightly bigger favorite against the Pacers [laughs] as the Pacers continue to get no respect, uh, than they are against the Knicks.
9:00
Yeah, it, let, I mean, let's stop it right there 'cause JVT kind of brought it up earlier, right? It's the, okay, me and you are both on, on Pacers series prices, right?
9:08
We, even if I thought this was pr- like, fairly even going into the series, us getting the plus money on, on the Pacers, I, I would, that was good enough for me to get in on a, on a series bet.
9:18
I don't know what the Pacers haven't shown you during this series to tell you that they're a better team than the New York Knicks right now. So I, that, that pricing's a little wild to me.
9:27
I frankly, if you- This NBA playoffs for me will just be remembered as, yeah, I just kept betting the Pacers over and over and won- Yeah... won, won good money doing it.
9:34
And I, I, I guess I have a feeling that's gonna continue for you in the NBA finals- Maybe. I don't know. We'll see... even if it is Thunder-Pacers. Yeah.
9:39
But the one I was gonna bring up, 'cause I think, I just, this is, when you get markets posted like this at this time, if you have already in mind, let's say you do wanna go run and bet the Pacers, uh, to win the NBA finals, right?
9:51
Use all of these different markets to compare prices. Yes.
9:54
'Cause you could get in on a series price right now, or you could get in on a straight outright price, and I saw some wildly different prices, uh, for, for those, for the Pacers yesterday when I was kinda going through these.
10:06
So, um, what- Now did, did, did this part surprise you?
10:09
If the Timberwolves were to somehow win three in a row, buck history, and win three in a row against the Thunder, they would only be minus 120 favorites against either the Knicks or Pacers.
10:19
I thought, well, first of all, I shouldn't say only. I wasn't sure they would be a favorite at all. Okay, so this has come down. Remember I first brought this up to you- Yeah... like a few days ago?
10:27
This number has come down now, so it's only minus 120. I think it was minus 140 before when these first opened.
10:33
Um, look, I still had the Wolves as a higher rated team than the Knicks and a little bit more than the Pacers, so I guess this checks out, but I mean, I don't, I don't think we're seeing that.
10:47
I, I, obviously I don't think we're seeing this [laughs] matchup at, at this point.
10:50
Uh, what, I think what's gonna be more interesting, if it does end up being Thunder-Pacers, how much do these remaining games and when they get decided, Gil, affect the series price?
11:00
'Cause I was texting back and forth a little bit with JVT. Uh, he and I were texting a little bit this morning a- about these.
11:06
A- and frankly, I'll say, like, I felt there was a little bit too big of a difference in what the series price was for the Thunder against the Nuggets and what they ended up against the Timberwolves.
11:17
It was a little light against the Timberwolves in my opinion, and then we're kinda seeing right in the middle now at, like, minus 525. We, it, that feels high. You know me, I'm a Thunder backer.
11:27
I got the Thunder tickets. Yeah. I thought this was gonna be more like Thunder minus 425, something like that. So. Yeah. Thunder minus 525, Pacers four to, four to one on the comeback.
11:37
Uh, that's the one that obviously with both teams up three to one in their respective conference final series we expect to actually manifest. Steve Fezzik on the other side.
11:47
Special Wednesday appearance for the second week in a row. That's next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting- A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Edge Boost is the first ever bank account built for bettors ensuring all gambling transactions are approved. That's all gambling transactions approved. No usage fees, no minimums. Earn cash back rewards.
12:11
100% approval for all betting deposits. Sign up today at edgeboost.bet with promo code ANG Deposit $25 and Edge Boost will match the deposit. That's edgeboost.bet. SkillAlexander, we get tweets.
12:24
I'm gonna Ron Burgundy through all the tweets here. This is Nemesis Enforcer, "Had to replace my router on AT&T a few months back. Service went kaput. Couldn't h- hard reset. AT&T sent a new one.
12:35
I activated via app, even downloaded old router settings. Didn't miss a beat." There you go. I think that's what I'm in for today. JasonH11, "Yo, greatest invention that has been, uh, made obsolete by streaming?
12:45
The previous channel button on the remote. I su- I so miss being able to hit one button to switch between two games. Those were the days." Jason, I brought this up yesterday. There is no seamless way to toggle.
12:55
That's the issue, uh, with the streaming. Uh, Fairway Fred, "Speaking of golf, who's the best player of the VSIN daily hosts got a triple bucket list course to play?" Who's the best golfer of the VSIN hosts?
13:05
Humans, would you say? I don't know. Matt Brown? One of those guys. This. Uh, 3JackH3131, "I'm sorry, but how are Frosted Mini-Wheats not in the top five of cereals that can be consumed without milk?
13:16
Full of fiber and they come in flavors." Sorry. Sorry to the Frosted Mini-Wheats crowd. We apologize for the omission. SteveTheProxy, "I hit a 175 to one Texas over Arizona World Series exacta two years ago."
13:28
I think I remember that, Steve. "I'd probably make that same bet again this year. I'd like both to get into the playoffs and go deep. Only problem is, you see the Diamondbacks bullpen last night?"
13:36
Good God, their bullpen is terrible. TorchD, uh, the one who moves the, the one who puts the satin on your panties, "Had a great money line parlay going last night.
13:44
Mets, Yankees, Cubs, Oilers, Pacers, but the last leg, the goddang Diamondbacks," he says, "Gak, gak, gak." There you go, just mentioning them. And GameTimeJones, "I'll always remember the Ole Miss 100 to one ticket.
13:56
The Ole Miss 100 to one ticket. I made two futures wagers on the, uh, College World Series that season as an Oklahoma fan. The other was Oklahoma 66 to one. Love a can't lose matchup." Yes, uh, that was the final.
14:08
That was awesome. YoWorthy311, "Is 75 to one on Northeastern a good price? Would you still play? Love the show, FYI." Thank you. Um, 75 to one, we're starting to teeter, right?
14:19
But that's about as low as I would go on that. Ladies and gentlemen, it is not a Friday, but it is a Wednesday, and so it's time, this week anyway, for Steve Fezzik.
14:28
[upbeat music] Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Fezzik. It's time for Fezzik.
14:39
The Friday's got on the screen, but we, we cut off Ryan's voice. How you doing, man? Steve Fezzik, everybody, the only back-to-back winner of the, uh, Hilton Super Contest. Licking my wounds after yet another defeat.
14:49
Correction, humiliating defeat on the tennis court- [laughs]... against Gil Alexander. Well, you know. Your serve looked good, though. There's that. Yeah. Yeah. But you- Serve looked good... you know what?
15:00
You know when your opponent's, like, more busy checking his scores than worrying about his strategy, that you're probably not gonna win that day. Yeah, yeah. Uh [laughs] That's right.
15:10
I was wor- I was checking tennis scores- [laughs]... the whole time. By the way, I'm checking tennis scores right now. [laughs] Zoom horror, got two sets to love over Mpetshi Perricard. That's going well.
15:19
Hattingh off and off on her own serve, uh, down two sets to one, though. Uh, six dogs in tennis, but the only two that I mentioned that are still, they still haven't started, I don't think, Danilovic and Brooksby.
15:29
I'm not sure if those have started yet. Um, okay, let's start with, uh, the Crackman segment from last week. Crackman was on here, um, and he was talking about, and he said NBA sides are unbeatable.
15:43
Uh, and he took a lot of incoming. I, by the way, took some incoming from some of my cohorts here for not, uh, clarifying. And by the way, I accepted the incoming 'cause I was like, "You're right."
15:52
Uh, in the crack hour, you know, we, we move pretty quick, and yes, it was on me to say, "Okay, unbeatable is a strong word," and I mentioned that yesterday when Carl Sack was on, uh, and Kelly, uh, when we had that discussion.
16:03
So, but yeah, part of it's on me for not pushing back just to some degree. But you, you know, Crack has taken a lot of incoming on this, and you wanted to say something about it.
16:10
Yeah, I'm gonna push back on the people pushing back. I've been thinking about this. Yeah. Because, I mean, you're doing, like, a three-minute discussion on each one of these topics. Yeah.
16:19
And generally, what he said is correct. Now, he coulda said, probably shoulda said, "In general, NBA sides day of the game are generally unbeatable when betting minus 110." Yes. All right?
16:34
And the idea is that the market is so efficient that there's few and far between are the people that can beat it, especially as you approach post, especially when you're laying full vig.
16:46
And famously, I used to, I used to tell you this about your baseball. Like, um, like g- uh, you know, I'm fast asleep, and Gil Alexander releases a play, a baseball play at midnight.
16:54
I'm getting up to bet that sucker on an overnight. Gil tells me who he likes two minutes before a game starts. I'm like, "Eh." Right. "I'm playing poker. It's, it's fine." Yeah. Yeah. You know?
17:03
Because it, because it's so much harder to win at that point.
17:05
So I'm gonna use, I'm gonna give an analogy of why Crack's right and all these internet tough guys that, like, like, are, are, like, ready to pounce on anyone's misstatement are wrong here.
17:15
[laughs] If I said always, blackjack, if I said always hit 14 against a 10, okay? It's what the basic strategy card says, all right? It's fine f- I think it's fine for me to say that for d- for general gambling advice.
17:28
Now, it's massively wrong for the highest level blackjack players. Would, would, would, would jump all over me and say, "Fezzik sucks at blackjack.
17:36
Everybody knows in single deck if you have a pair of sevens against a 10, it's basic strategy to stand. Everyone knows if you're card counting plus three, you surrender if it's allowed.
17:45
If it's, like, plus five or plus six, you stand on the 14 against a 10." Well, but these are all exceptions to the rule.
17:51
And so in general, the overnight betting, the, the, uh, a player's suddenly out, there's a rogue number, you can lay minus one on three, these are all exceptions to the rule. But in general, what Crackman said is true.
18:03
How often do I ever Or does any of our our group text, do we ever say on the day of the game, like an hour before, does, like, Chris Bear Felica come and say, "We gotta go ahead and get down on this," you know? Never.
18:13
Never. Yeah. Yes. Never. Uh, and by the way, again, let me, let me just, uh, accept responsibility too, right? In that moment, I, I assumed that people knew what we were talking about. I should not assume, right?
18:25
By the way, if you're searching long enough for me to not be perfect at, you know, at, at clarifying, you, you will be correct at some point. Um, so yeah, what he meant, and, and I, and I made sure to tell Carl, right?
18:36
I was like, "Listen, there is no n- I, I hope you know," right, Carl, talking about Carl Sack, Carl Ar- Aaron Rinning, all these guys who are great at betting NBA, "I, I hope you guys know that he's not talking about you guys," right?
18:49
Like, he's, that's not what he- Mm-hmm... that's not what he was saying.
18:51
What he was saying was the general person who's just, you know, new to, new-ish to sports betting, let's say, has been, only been doing it for a few years, whatever.
19:00
You know, it's like Roxy telling me, Roxy Roxborough, the legendary Roxy Roxborough from Las Vegas Sports Consultants, I think I mentioned this the other day too, once he told me, he goes, "Gil, nobody beats the NFL.
19:10
Nobody, ever." And I took that to mean, right, when R- and Roxy meant it this way, was sure, you can beat it for a month, you can beat it for a, a year even, but over the long term you are not.
19:20
And what he's referring to is also the same thing, which is talking about doing it, you know, when the market is as efficient as possible. Exactly. They're not talking about Kirk Cousin touchdown props here. Yeah.
19:31
They're talking about- Yeah... you know, b- a- and the irony is that the group that was h- that was hyper-critical of Crack, um, at, you know, making that statement,
19:40
they hit, like, 33% against the spread on their podcast last year in the NFL. Same thing, NFL sides, you know, professing to have an edge.
19:49
Which of course, it's not, I mean, they, it's just bad variance and some bad picks, but the point is, it's really hard to win against NFL sides and NBA sides, and then they're being critical of Crack saying that, it seems completely inconsistent.
20:03
Yeah.
20:03
It, it brought up, you, you brought this up also, and this is, I, I don't know, I find this subject even more interesting to me, but maybe that's just me, which is you, you say there's something about gambling Twitter, and I don't know if this exists in other industries, but it's like if you're friends with the person, the presumption is everything this person does is perfection pristine.
20:26
If you're n- and pristine. If you're not friends with the person and you have some ax to grind, or you're jealous of them or whatever it is, that you don't like them, right?
20:33
You will find anything you possibly can to just crap on that person. It's e- exactly right. So my, so my haters are like, "Well, he won some, some contests, but that was 100 years ago," you know?
20:44
And, and, and he gives out some plays that, that, that are, are hard to find, and they're only at DraftKings and FanDuel or, you know, a, a, a few other books, not at every book.
20:53
So but those haters never compliment me on anything, and, and I assure you, I mean, I have some gambling acumen. I finished third in the blackjack ball, and I don't even play blackjack, you know?
21:05
It's like, you know, one year. Um, I, I have a good poker game. It's like you could learn something from me. I'm not perfect. I make mistakes. I'm gonna misstate s- some things.
21:14
But the point is, like, if you're just gonna paint me as being an idiot at all times- Yeah... you're probably the idiot. Yeah. Well, uh, okay, and I'll take it even b- I'll, I'll remove you from the conversation. Mm-hmm.
21:24
Uh, there was a, and we should probably do this after the break, but there was a bet bash c- there was a bet bash panel that you might have even been on a couple bet bashes ago. With, with Ravel? With Darren Ravel. Yes.
21:34
Now, Darren Ravel is not, for those of us who are, who are betters, right, and are immersed in this 24/7, 365, Darren Ravel is not a, uh, advocate of the industry, or, or, or someone we would ever look up to or someone we would ever side with or anything of that nature.
21:51
Like, he is just not one of us, in other words. But I will tell you, by the end of that panel, he, he was almost a sympathetic figure to me.
21:59
It was like, like- Because everybody was, everybody was going after him, and he actually said some stuff where that I was like, "You know what? He's right."
22:07
And, and Darren Ravel is not, like, like, on, on, on the spectrum of, like, good and evil. I mean, he might, he wears the gray. He doesn't wear the black hat, you know what I mean? Yeah.
22:17
And, and so it was like Survivor series, four against one, and they're just pounding on the poor guy. Everybody was pounding on him. And by the way, he was brave to be up there in the first place. Yeah.
22:24
And one thing he said, though, where I was like, I was nodding in the back, I'm like, "He's right and all y'all are wrong," which was he was l- he was telling other panelists, he's like, "You all assume that everybody you think is a winner is a winner, and that everybody you think is a loser is a loser.
22:36
You guys don't know anything." And I was like, "You're right. You're 100% right." And that's part and parcel with what we're talking about, uh, with all this.
22:44
More with Fezzik on the other side, including him atop the Killer Sports NBA contest standings. That's next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Ready to get in on the action? First Bet has you covered.
22:58
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23:04
Visit firstbet.com, that's the number one S-T bet.com, and use promo code VSiN200 to score a 20% rebate on all your wagers for the first 60 days, up to $200.
23:14
Don't miss out, start betting today at firstbet.com This is from, uh, James Sott on Twitter. He said, uh, "Yo, man, this TNT coverage for the French Open is awful," he says. "Tommy Paul on TNT over Iga and Emma?
23:28
Uh, and TruTV has a McEnroe cast with John and Patrick talking over whatever match is on. Awful." It's interesting with tennis coverage, 'cause I have a buddy who just, he can't stand the Tennis Channel coverage either.
23:38
He's alwa- he thinks they're always on the wrong match. Oh, no, not Tennis Channel so much. When ESPN has a slam, he hates their choices of when they move on- Hmm... from one match to the other.
23:47
I don't know who's making those decisions, but they, they are very curious at times. By the way, speaking of Iga, uh, she is, uh, up a set on Emma Raducanu in her second round match.
23:57
And, uh, let's see if we can get these other ones, uh, home here.
24:00
Ofner serving to knot it up at two sets a piece with Khachanov, and Zhu Hur, uh- Up two sets and up a break in the third, looking to close it out in straights.
24:09
By the way, the one, again, one of the things, and I don't know if you have this in other sports, but in tennis, Steve, Steve Fezzik, by the way, ladies and gentlemen, joining us,
24:17
I, i- if you ask me, what do you hate more, losing a match, losing a bet, or not having fired on a big dog that ends up manifesting? Hmm. It's always the latter. It's like the stock market.
24:30
Losing money on a stock or not h- not buying long on something that soars. Especially a three to one, yeah.
24:37
Oh, yeah, so, um, Martin, Kelly's gonna laugh 'cause he always says this is the, uh, the scariest name to say on air.
24:43
Martin Fucsovics, uh, [laughs] is taking on the American Tommy Paul, and he's about to go up two sets to love, and I did have numbers that suggested I should play him, and I didn't have the onions. Hmm.
24:52
Didn't have the onions. Um, Stevie Fezzik, he's a contest player, ladies and gentlemen.
24:57
Not only is he back-to-back Hilton Super Contest champs, uh, back in the day, the only one who's ever won 'em back to back, but he's won multiple contests here in town, and then there's our little, our, our little, little VSiN Killer Sports NBA Contest, where we only have three games left now, and they all are in the NBA Finals.
25:13
We've had, we've each had 35 plays, 20 in the first round, 10 in the second, five this round, and three w- coming up in the NBA Finals. 15 invitees from the great Carl Sack, and only five of us are still alive.
25:26
Kelly, unfortunately, on screen here, mathematically eliminated, but Kelly gave it a, uh, gave it a heck of a run, too.
25:32
Um, me and Alex Christensen, Noops, we're kind of on life support 'cause we're two and a half back with three games left. Doug Kazerian now in third place again. He's in sec- he's in third, two games behind you.
25:45
Zach Cohen, VSiN's Own, one game behind you, and Stevie at the top, 22 and 13. And you know- What could go wrong, Steve? You should get, like, Bill Adey's, um, daily report that he puts out at 3:00 in the morning.
25:56
So he interviewed me, and I gave him some of my contest tips. You hear all that time, he goes, "Contest player." Yeah. Well, what the heck does that mean?
26:02
It's like being called, like, a, a global, you know, l- leader in setting lines. What does that mean? I, I don't know. Um, but I, uh, what does being a contest, you know, specialist mean? Well, I explain what that means.
26:14
Hey, by the way, um, speaking of contests, this Circa Survivor, um, one thing that no one ever talks about is there's gonna be a Thursday game, and the Eagles are gonna be laying seven against the Cowboys.
26:25
Oh, I like this. So now this is gonna be controversial. If Philly wins, no big deal of me getting in Survivor. You know why? Because I'll be losing going in, okay? I can, I can sign up after that Thursday game. Mm-hmm.
26:38
So why do I really wanna sign up if a bunch of people already have a W in f- you know, in front of them, es- a- especially with $100,000 buy-in? But what if Dallas upsets Philly?
26:48
And I know some of those people in that Gran Turismo have taken Philly already, and there's $100,000 or f- uh, times four, there's $400,000, bang, seeding the pot, if you will.
27:02
It's g- i- it, all of a sudden just becomes extremely attractive to enter the Survivor contest. I don't think that's controversial at all. I don't think that's controversial at all.
27:10
I think there's, uh, by the way, I think that also, don't they have the rule where if you did pick Philly, you then, then you can re-up? Then can, can come back in. Right? So it's more money in the pot.
27:17
Well, maybe it's not controversial, but no one ever talks about it. Oh, we've ta- And it, yeah... we, we've talked about it before. Yeah, except for, yeah, us. Yeah, yeah, we have talked about it.
27:24
But it, the, I think the, now let me just clarify. That first scenario where Philly wins that game, are you going as, so far as to say then you won't enter? Yes. I will not e- There's no way- You will not enter...
27:34
I would enter the Gran Tu- Turismo if I'm- Not Gran Turismo. I'm saying the regular Survivor. I, I'll enter, but not nearly to the extent. Like, literally I'll max- Just that-...
27:41
I'll max my entries, you know, based upon that, um, I- if Dallas wins, and I'll probably play, like, three of them if Philly wins. So that's enough for y- for it to alter your betting behavior at that point? Yes.
27:51
Interesting. Um, that's, that's interesting.
27:55
So in, and by the way, the, so this contest, uh, you know, you give contest advice like that, which is great for Survivor, but in this contest, you know, you have a lot of NBA hardos that were invited to this thing.
28:06
You don't know much, right? Can't name a player. Can't name a pl- well, you can name a player. Yeah. You heard of Michael Jordan before? Um, you can name a player, but you can't do much more than that.
28:15
And so you were, I mean, what would you say, of your 35 picks, you nev- first of all, Stevie will zero times will get the worst of it. We will zero times get the worst of it. One time I did.
28:25
Uh, like I get my first, my second pick in the contest I did. You got the worst of it? Yes, because I really liked the under in the game, and I took a bad number- Okay...
28:30
because I said, "I'll, you know, I, I'll, I'll get a jump on everyone, try to get a game lead." And then I, I look and hardly anyone played the total [laughs] except for me.
28:37
So y- so removing your handicapping entirely, well, you can't entirely 'cause there's not, not every pick are you getting the best of it, right? Not every one. Right. But I would say, I would say, eh- So what?...
28:48
60% of my- So you're, so you're getting the best of it, and the rest of the time you're just aggregating other people's, uh, b- expert bets or?
28:54
No, I put, I put my own, but well, let me, b- I, I put, put my own stuff because I hear that all the time because I do massively aggregate. Yeah. The great aggre- The people aggregator...
29:01
the great aggregator, and just, it, it, it actually kind of gets me angry because, like, last night- Well, we could call you something else, Stevie. That'll get you more angry Yeah, yeah, and it'd probably be correct.
29:09
Yeah. But the, uh, like last night, like boom, I saw the opener, and New York was at minus 170 at Circa, all right? $3,000 limit. I'm like, "Well, that's, that's obvious. I'm gonna lay minus 170."
29:21
And I laid four also with, with the Knicks. Well, I can't aggregate when the line just [laughs] comes up. I mean, obviously that's just me. Yeah.
29:28
I don't have time to check with anyone, but I'm like, how the heck can the Knicks be, you know, laying four and a half game one, and, a- and then laying higher in game two?
29:35
And now I, I understand Indiana's probably a little bit better than the Knicks, but this is the world's greatest spot for New York to, uh, to zigzag to a win here.
29:44
I, I think, uh, just as informative, by, by the way, playing this, and I'm not gonna win, right? 'Cause I'd have to go three and O.
29:50
You'd have to go O and three, and then everybody in between would have to falter as well. You're extremely unlikely to win. I'm extremely unlikely- [laughs]... to win. But the point is of this,
30:00
I think just this little case study of a contest, 'cause it was a really condensed little contest as opposed to our, uh, our football ones that are season long-
30:08
It was very eye-opening in terms of forget you being good at a contest, 'cause we know that about you, but we also learned that some people are not good at contests, right? Doing everything wrong. Right.
30:20
I'm not casting shade, because I, I just thought this was a very interesting thing for sports bettors to learn, right? But it's like, okay, you see that you're really good at, at handicapping, but
30:31
th- there was, there was a couple things. You'll see if you can add to this. There was, first of all, there was no regard for when to put in the picks. In other words, they put them in a day early almost, right?
30:40
And you can wait until an hour before, and why not get the injury information? This happens- You want-... in all the football contests all the time. People like with their proxies- Right...
30:49
or, or, or even before, they wa- oh, they wanna play the Thursday game. So bang, they put it... I, I know my five players, I'm gonna put them in Wednesday night.
30:55
You know, I'm, yes, there's, you, there's people that have been successful in contests doing it, but you are so up against it. You want to as cl- get as close to perfect information as you can- Yes...
31:06
which is as close to the deadline as possible. And the other thing was just simply a,
31:11
a, it's not a disregard, 'cause then it sounds dismissive, but it's prioritizing your handicap over the best of it to an extent that might be, might be seen as somewhat arrogant about one's own handicapping.
31:25
Yeah, so the Lakers are playing Minnesota, and the line's two and a half, and you take the Lakers plus two and a half, and then, and in the contest it's three and a half, okay?
31:34
So, so, so like you lay three and a half with Minnesota, and Minnesota wins by three, and if you would've betted against, o- o- on the board, you win, but if you played them in the contest, you lose.
31:44
You can't win betting or in contests taking bad numbers. It will absolutely bite you in the butt. Yeah. Maybe not in the short term, but in the long term it would actually, it would bite you in the butt.
31:54
And then, you know, I think that that's, that was, it was really interesting to see that. And again, not from a, I'm not casting aspersions on anyone. I think everyone can learn from it.
32:04
And so it makes sense why you, in all these contests in v- in various sports, are so successful. N- not late season stuff where then if you're down or you're up you have to employ some game theory. That's different.
32:15
That's its own category. Mm-hmm. But just generally speaking, to get to that point, um, why you are in contention.
32:22
Even remember the y- was it last year or the year before where people were like, "Ah, Steve, you had a terrible year." You finished 24th, right? Twenty, yeah, 21st in the millions- 21st... be- because I was like- Yeah...
32:30
15 and 15 my last 30 picks, and I heard, "Oh, Fezzik collapsed in the millions." So I just, I just think that's interesting. Now, will that work every single season? No. No.
32:38
Because there are some seasons where the best of it doesn't work out. Right. But those are the exceptions, not the rule, right? Yes. Yeah.
32:45
And, and I just think it's, it, it was a fascinating exercise, and again, thanks to, uh, Carl Sack. We all had a, uh, we all had a tremendous time playing this. And it ain't over. Again, first prize, $3,000.
32:55
You have pledged it to the room attendants of Circa. Yes. I, I figure that, uh, Mike Palm will probably maybe get tasked with figuring out h- what the heck, how to- [laughs]... how to do that administratively.
33:04
I'm sure he's looking forward to that. That'll keep him busy. Uh, by the way, second place is a, uh, $500 prize as well. But third place, nothing. It's only first and second prize. Mm-hmm.
33:12
Uh, anyway, so that's the VSiN Killer Sports Contest. You can check it out, uh, on the website. Was it vsin.com/challenge I believe is the URL, uh, for that, if I am not mistaken, if you wanna follow along.
33:24
Three games left. That's it. Five players still alive. We'll come back. Uh, Stevie has some thoughts on the Colorado Rockies, one of his favorite topics. We'll do that. We'll recap all the best bets.
33:35
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:37
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:56
Back on a numbers game live from, uh, Circa Sports, Circa Resorts Casino and Sportsbook, I should say. Let's go, Alex Ann, numbers game. Kelly with us as well, and Steve Fezzik. Uh, we get tweets at Beating The Book.
34:07
Brian M., "Brian Moriennan, one of you will be getting," uh, [laughs] one of you, Fezzik probably, "will be getting a call from jail if Dallas/Philly ends up in a tie on that first Thursday night after he gets arrested for reckless driving trying to get to Circa."
34:20
[laughs] That's true. Jason Smith, "Will you ask Mark Borchardt to post his June most wins best bet again after you announce yours, as he had the Phillies for May? Love the show. Keep up the great work."
34:28
Yes, I will ask him to do so. And the numbers, guys, the great aggregator? More like the great aggravator. Just kidding. Love Fezzik's insight. It's safe to say that Fezzik's specialty is optimal game theory.
34:38
Yes, yeah, that's probably a good way of saying it. Uh, let's get to our VSiN best bets because Fezzik has a bunch of baseball this morning and a hockey play. Uh, best bets courtesy of G Bank, the official bank of VSiN.
34:49
By the way, we're gonna hold off on the golf plays. Uh, for golf, just check out Long Shots with Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and our own Kelly Bittler.
34:55
I've got Jensen Brooksby here still to come on the men's side in tennis, and Olga Danilovic on the ladies' side. I don't believe either has started. I could be wrong about that, but hey, I'm doing a show.
35:05
Uh, Jensen Brooksby on the men's side against Sebastian Korda. Olga Danilovic against Danielle freaking Collins.
35:11
My three College World Series plays, Vandy and Texas both at plus 950 to win it all, and Northeastern, the long shot at 125 to one to win the College World Series. Okay, let's go to Will Hill.
35:23
Timberwolves tonight, plus the eight and a half. Thinks OKC probably closes it out, but he'll take the Timberwolves and the points, and tomorrow night he's laying it with the Knicks.
35:31
He's also got Jared Young under, uh, 0.5 hits 'cause a pinch hitting situation is usually in the offing, uh, after a couple ABs. Sandy Alcantara under 17 and a half outs.
35:42
He's saying that Sandy Alcantara is being priced as the pitcher he was, not as the pitcher he is. Jacob Wilson from the Athletics minus 170 to win Rookie of the Year in the American League.
35:52
Leaflet And Luke Weaver, he took a shot at 15 to one for AL Reliever of the Year. Yes, it's actually an award and you can actually bet on it at certain shops. Um, this is from JVT.
36:03
He's got Isaiah Hartenstein tonight under 14 and a half points plus rebounds. And tomorrow night he's on the Pacers plus the points once again. And then there's the curious case of Steve Fezzik.
36:14
Would you like to go through these? Let's start with hockey. You got the Stars tonight. Absolutely. Or not tonight, but tomorrow night. Yeah. Absolutely love the Stars.
36:19
My, uh, talked to Scott Seidenberg about it, and yeah, they got murdered on the scoreboard, but not in the, in the stats and- Two, two empty netters. Yeah. Yeah. And a home run spot for them now, um, down one-three.
36:31
So, uh- Okay... I'd b- be shocked if that line doesn't inflate, and I'd really be surprised if they don't win. All right, and a lot of baseball today. You have some day baseball included. What do you got here?
36:39
All right, so we got Skeens and the Pirates.
36:41
Now I always bet Skeens first five, but this is the one exception to the rule, because that Arizona bullpen, the Pirates, who can't score four- more than four runs in any game, scored six in one inning, um, or more last night.
36:52
Yeah. Uh, so that, uh, so we'll take Pirates full game, but we expect a slow start. First five, under four in that same game, minus 130. Um, chalky, I'm on the Phillies.
37:01
That number has come down, so you're gonna get a better price, uh, rare case. Uh, Twins-Rays, two good pitchers, we'll go under eight. Uh, the Cleveland Guardians, um, you know what?
37:11
I just think the Dodgers pitcher is absolutely donezo when I watched him, you know, pitch last time out, so I'm gonna fade him every time out. So I'll, I'll take Cleveland plus the 130.
37:20
And, uh, you know, base winner, and you were talking about the White Sox. Yes. And what a great first five team they are for a terrible team, and so I will jump on them today, first five plus 175.
37:32
That Dodgers game is the first one to start. The Dodgers pitcher you're referring to, of course, is Clayton Kershaw, by the way. Uh, that's- Watched... that's a 10:10 Pacific, 1:10 Eastern start there in Cleveland.
37:43
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38:36
Uh, okay, a few things to get to before we're out of here. One, you brought up the Gran Turismo moments ago.
38:42
You were actually talk- You're actually referring to the Circa contest that is re- that is actually titled the Grandissimo. Oh. [laughs] Grand Tur- Read bad. Gran Turismo would be something else.
38:53
Um- [laughs] By the way, whether, whether the Eagles or Cowboys, let's just take that game out of it, the first game of the season, are you, are you intending to play this?
39:01
And what do you feel the over under is in terms of entries? I'll go over under 14 and a half, and I'm probably not gonna play because I don't like a, I don't like winner take all contests.
39:11
I wouldn't play a poker tournament that was winner take all. Hmm.
39:13
So, uh, now, when it's millions, it's $1,000 entries, it's, it's, you've got so much dead money, I have to do it, but I don't think there's gonna be a lot of dead money in this contest. No. Yeah.
39:23
Uh, gr- groups, or do you think, like, what, how many, how many of those entries, let's say it's tw- let's say it's 20 entries. How m- what's the percentage? Uh, 50% will be groups? 60. 60%. Yeah.
39:35
12 of 20 would be, uh, groups. Yes. Okay. Um, all right. Once again, $100,000, uh, per entry in Circa's new, Derek Stevens' new innovation with the Survivor.
39:47
We have the Survivor Classic with now a $15 million guarantee, but this new contest is $100,000 per, $100,000 per entry. You know, accolades to Derek- Called the Grandissimo... and, and, and yeah, what he said.
39:58
Um, it, it- [laughs] Accolades to Derek, the entire team, and just what a great job they've done with all these contests. Absolutely. Uh, and, and forced others to innovate, right?
40:07
That's why we love w- you know, that's what Derek has done greater than anybody else is that he has forced other old school Vegas folks to have to do better for the better- Hey, maybe it's-... in these contests...
40:19
a good idea not to put a rake on these contests when it's- Exactly... driving huge amounts of business to your property. Exactly. Uh, Colorado Rockies before we go.
40:28
Colorado Rockies, so the White Sox were, you know, famously in, in the modern era, one of the worst teams we've ever seen. They won 41 games. The White Sox only got out, uh, scored by 306 runs.
40:39
Colorado's approaching 200. I mean, this team, I really think, like you talked about, "Eh, I think we gotta go over 36 and a half," like if that was offered, I don't know. I think they might only win 35 games.
40:50
But it's, uh, the bookmakers have had enough. Yeah. Rocky under money th- so I'm, I'm looking at, at a lot of these menus, it's not even being offered anymore. Kelly and I were doing it live on air the other day.
41:01
29 are listed. We're like, we're, 'cause we're like, "Okay, well, it actually is," 'cause we were speculating with Spore, what do you need to bet them?
41:08
What would the number be for you, need to be for you to go over on them? And as we're doing it, we're looking for what is the actual number, and it's not listed. Yeah, so it's like- Yeah...
41:15
basically it fell off the radar. The, the season win number started at 59 and a half. Yeah. Jason Weingartner went over, not his best work. Yeah, he did a mea culpa on that very quickly. He, he- Yeah...
41:23
he's still the number one most profitable guest ever. Um, self-documented. But the, uh, he's, he does very well. And so when the plane hit 40- Are, are, are you quite done? Yes, go ahead.
41:32
When the plane [laughs] hits 40, uh, it's, it's fallen below, the Rocky plane has fallen below the radar. [laughs] Yeah, well, now Eric Biggio reminds us that William Hill Caesars did have it up. Oh.
41:41
But most books did not. Most books did not. Mm. And 39 and a half was the number. I'd go under They were, yesterday was the one I was like, "Oh, are they gonna win a game here?"
41:50
They were, you know, it was like, went to extra innings, they got a run, they're up three to two. No, that didn't work out. Didn't work out. All right, and then, uh, before we go, a, uh, cereal hack, Stevie.
41:59
So take your cereal the night before and put it in the freezer. All right? You'll thank me. Take your Froot Loops, take your Cocoa Pebbles, take your peanut butter Captain Crunch, put it in the freezer.
42:08
Next morning, you put that cold milk on it and it will turn into icy milk with the cereal, and it'll be the best cereal bowl you have ever had. [laughs] You child. You still do this at home? Fireworks, Gil. Fireworks.
42:20
Friday night, 7:00 at the Lake- Dude-... at dusk at the Legacy Club... you love fireworks more than anything. Um, okay. [laughs] So when does your...
42:29
And this is, this is the last thing, because of, because football season, obviously football is king. Do you prep, like, okay, so Dr. Bob, right? Dr. Bob's a handicapper. Come July, right?
42:41
Now, it's a little different with the transfer portal with college football now. Mm-hmm. So he has to wait, but with pro football, like he's, you know, he is just mister...
42:48
He works harder than anybody I know, and there's a prep time for, before a season starts where he is just, you know, you can't even get to him.
42:55
Do you, as the type of bettor that you are, do you do, uh, extensive prep work? What do you do? Yes, but it's completely different from Dr. Bob's approach, because he's always gonna be better.
43:04
So I, I grabbed, took out my notebook, and I'm sorry, I can't find the pages, but like I went, just went through and I'm writing like every college football season win number right now, because I wanna know what the openers are.
43:14
Yeah. Like, like Tulsa, for instance. Tulsa's gonna be a lot better. Why are they gonna be a lot better? Because they opened two and a half, and it took a nanosecond for them, for their total to move up to 3.3.
43:23
So everybody like pounded, even though they're tying up their money for six months, Tulsa over two and a half. So Tulsa's not gonna be god-awful this year, and the market is showing me that.
43:33
Okay, so that's the, that's the beginning of your preparation, is what you're- Yes. Okay. The market, market, uh, uh, just maniacal, uh, market awareness of where these numbers are being put. Yeah.
43:42
And I know on a weekly basis you have your printouts that you're, I mean, you're, you're working off stuff.
43:47
Oh, I've got my, my power ratings are good, but you know, they're, a lot of them are aggregated because I've got my opinion- Yeah... but my opinion's only worth like three-quarters of a point max.
43:54
Only sport you do power ratings on, college and pro? Only sport. Pro foot- pro college football. Pro, pro football, like not college football. I mean, I've got someone else's. I use someone else's college football.
44:02
Right. Yeah. Okay. And there's no, and by the way, there's gonna be some people who are like, "Oh, so that's kinda..." There's no shame in that.
44:07
You, you know what your strengths are and what sports and- How the heck am I, would I evaluate all these- Yeah... free agents and these rookies? I, I, I could stay up all night.
44:14
I lack the, the acumen to be able to do so. Thank you, Stevie. Appreciate it. Always interesting. Steve Fezzik, everybody. Uh, @FezzikSports, follow at your own peril on Twitter. Money Moves is next. Stormy's still out.
44:27
JVT at the helm. That's next. Enjoy from Visa, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
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