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May 29, 2024
A Numbers Game | May 29, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | May 29, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. We don't care how you're taking us in, we just appreciate that you are.
0:19
I mean, we do care, but we love that it's either one of those, or any one of those. That's right. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin from Bar Canada at the D live, all courtesy of DraftKings. How you doing, sir?
0:29
Doing great. How about you? I'm gr- I'm, I'm great. I was, uh... By the way, uh, Joe Gibbs is on the, uh, TV behind you, so I might be distracted all morning.
0:37
Just want to point that out, 'cause they're showing a, showing an old Skins Super Bowl- Oh, boy... back in the day. I'm gonna tell you this right now. Don't, don't wanna spoil it. Skins win it. Beat the Bills.
0:46
[laughs] Place your bets. Eh, I'd lay -12.5. I was gonna say, I would have placed a spot bet. [laughs] I'd lay -12.5. I'd go up to 12.5, but no more than that. No more than that. [laughs] Key number in the NFL betting.
0:57
Key number. Super Bowl betting. The key number in this would be 12.5. Um, on the show today, we're gonna talk with JBT here momentarily. I know he is...
1:06
This is gonna be interesting because Kelly has the, [clears throat] pardon me, Kelly's got the Mavericks futures, JBT's got the T'Wolves futures, and this just got interesting.
1:14
As we, uh, have talked about earlier this week, both Monday and Tuesday, Kelly,
1:18
although it's 0 and 155 lifetime for teams that are down three to nothing to come back and win a best of seven series in the NBA, it has never happened before.
1:27
The fact that the T-Wolves have games five and seven at home make it interesting because we said if they could steal game four, then in some strange way, the pressure, certainly if the T-Wolves can win game five, the pressure firmly, uh, with the Dallas Mavericks.
1:42
So we'll talk to JBT about that. Will Hill with all his plays. Uh, hockey, postseason hockey playoffs have been unbelievable.
1:49
Jonathan Davis will join us from SiriusXM NHL, uh, talk about the, uh, the Panthers and the Stars now both with a leg up in their respective series, uh, or excuse me, the Panthers tying the series.
2:00
Panthers could have been in a, a big hole yesterday, but the Panthers tying up the Eastern Conference Finals, uh, in overtime last night, so we'll talk to, uh, Jonathan Davis about his thoughts about the games moving forward, and Jason Weingarten as well.
2:11
Um, tennis was bad yesterday. Baseball, good. Tennis, bad. Baseball, good. [laughs] Uh, we're gonna update the Guardians coming up. My goodness, is this happening again? Uh, but tennis was bad yesterday.
2:24
So as great as the hard court season has been, um, I shouldn't say as great, 'cause it was way greater than clay has been bad, but clay has been bad.
2:33
Um, yesterday the Golden Sunbury, or not the Golden Sunbury, 'cause that would be 0 and 4, but 0 and 3 yesterday, uh, for me. This morning two have already started and the rain already started, Kelly, so.
2:44
Uh, it's rainy season out there in Paris, uh, Gil. Let's have a slam.
2:48
[laughs] Um, by the way, uh, I'm gonna say the S- I'm gonna say if you can find a prop on this game where the Skins shut out Buffalo in the first half- [laughs]... you should jump on that as well. So I point this out.
3:00
What is this, this- [laughs] I was used to, I used to do this in college. Like, the, you know, like an old game on the TV. Like, I had a hou- I was in a house with, like, three other dudes.
3:09
[laughs] We were always betting on everything. We'd have multiple TVs set up. Every once in a while someone would walk in and they'd be like, "Oh, what, what, uh, what's going on in the game?" Yeah.
3:17
And, like, me and someone else would look at each other and be like, "Yo, this is from the NBA finals two years ago," and be like, "I'll l- I'll, I'll give you five and a half." [laughs] January 1992 Super Bowl.
3:26
Actually, where I was in attendance. Oh.
3:28
And as I said, when I left Minneapolis, of course, of all the Super Bowls I ever went to, it was the one in Minneapolis, uh, cold weather, and I walked out of there after Washington won and I said, "I will never miss another Washington Super Bowl," and I have kept my promise to this day.
3:42
There you go. Still. Um, okay. So tennis today, two have already started. Have the over in the Orcas-Naka Shima match.
3:49
That has started out well at 6-5 in the first set before it got suspended, and I have, uh, Zheng Qin, Zheng Qin against, uh, Sonago in the men's side, and that's 4-3 in the first set, again suspended.
4:00
The only thing I have left is I got Iga. Wait, wait, what, uh, what were the bets real quick though? Nakashima-Orcas over 41. Okay. 6-5 in the first set.
4:09
So I'm trying to see what the, uh, live betting options might be, 'cause these are, these are all suspended right now, right? Yeah. That's right. So there's probably a lot of this stuff's back up. Hopefully.
4:16
Hopefully so. Actually, I'll, I'll te- I don't see totals though. Yeah. Over at DraftKings I don't see totals. Total is still, uh, yeah. Uh, I am on Zheng Qin against Sonago.
4:25
That you will probably see a line, but it's 4-3 and I can't tell by this scoreboard if he's, if it's on serve or up a break. Right. And then, uh, the only thing left today, hopefully they get it in,
4:37
Iga Swiatek and Naomi Osaka under 18 games. I think, uh, Iga takes care of business. So under 18 games. Anything better than 6-3, 6-3, we will cash there.
4:49
As great as Naomi is, the only four-time Slam winners playing each other, clay has never been her thing, obviously now, uh, post-pregnancy, different part of her career. Zheng -220 live, I believe, on serve.
5:01
Up- Oh, if he's -220, that can't be on serve. Okay. Yeah. He's probably b- he probably broke him then if it's -220. That's my guess. Um, okay, so no bet there, in other words, is what I'm saying.
5:12
Uh, we'll get to the Guardians later. Let us begin with basketball yesterday. Uh, as we alluded to earlier already, the T-Wolves get off the schneid, as Chris Berman used to say. Uh, they, [laughs]
5:26
they've let it, they've let in the last five minutes, in the final five minutes of each of these games, finally they get the victory. Um, Ant, 29, 10 and 9.
5:36
Karl-Anthony Towns, 25 on 9 of 13, shooting four of five from behind the arc. Who knows what could have happened if he, uh, didn't get in foul trouble. Luka, 28, 15 and 10 in defeat. 105-100 T-Wolves.
5:48
Um, this was a game, really at, I mean, it was a game of runs back and forth, and then finally with, uh, less than half the fourth quarter to go, it was 90 to 89 Dallas, and that's when Cat- Came to the fore.
6:01
Two straight Karl-Anthony Towns threes. 95-90 Minnesota with 5:05 left. Then up 95-92, KAT with another three, Kelly. 98-92 with 2:54 left. Ant with the spin move banker, put 'em up eight with under two minutes, 100-92.
6:16
100-92 with under two minutes left, you thought this game's over. But as is the case in these playoffs, nothing ever seems to be over. Uh, Ant missed, then Kyrie- uh, excuse me, uh, Doncic fouled on a three by KAT.
6:27
Good Lord. Hits all three. Then after an Ant miss, Ant-Man miss, Kyrie too. 100-97. But then, uh, Anthony Edwards with a two with 39 seconds left to put the T-Wolves up five, 102-97.
6:40
Kyle Anderson steals it from Kyrie, and you figure the game is over, but no, Conley makes one of two free throws. Remember, this was a 91% free throw shooter this year. One of two free throws.
6:49
It's 103-97 with 20 seconds left, and then Lucas fouled on a made three by Anthony Edwards. But he misses the key free throw that could have cut the lead to two with 12.8 seconds left.
7:01
Gobert got the rebound, timeout T-Wolves. Anderson inbounds to, uh, Naz Reid for the easy lay up. That did end it effectively. 105-100, the T-Wolves get it done.
7:09
And so I called it yesterday when the, when the Timberwolves were down three to nothing. The series price on the Timberwolves, remember, this is an oh and 155 trend, if you will. [laughs] Yeah.
7:21
This is a zero and 155 trend, and the Timberwolves were as low as eight to one in some shops. 10 to one was pretty much the consensus, but as low as eight to one.
7:32
Almost as if the books were telling you, "We don't want you to make this bet."
7:35
And now down three to one, again, with home game Thursday night, tomorrow night, at Minnesota, and a potential game seven also on their home court.
7:46
The Minnesota Timberwolves down three to one, Kelly, are plus 450 as four and a half point favorites tomorrow night. We're at plus four, see 425 at DraftKings right now. Or as I said, plus 425 even.
8:00
And I, it, I, this is, the, to me this is as absurd of a price as when we were talking yesterday. I agree. I agree. And I'm not, I'm not saying the Timberwolves are not a great team.
8:09
I thought they were the t- I mean, I thought they were gonna win this series. I'm not saying they're not a great team, but the situation. I, I mean, w- the eight to one yesterday, I mean, that was ridiculous, down 0-3.
8:19
At least you get two games, you get, you gonna get two games at home here, uh, you know, if you're gonna play it out the full seven. I, I could, there is, there, I, I don't know how, I don't know how you're betting that.
8:29
I don't know how you- No, I don't think you can. I think, I think it qualifies as one of the most ridiculous lines ever that we've ever seen. Yeah, I agree. A- and maybe you're right.
8:36
Like, then is this a, is this a book liability thing? I mean, what, how do you get a number like that? Well, we were talking about this with Drew yesterday.
8:43
This is exactly what was the case with the Celtics and the Heat last year in the Eastern Conference Finals. So the Celtics, who had home court, trailed three to nothing. Right.
8:53
But they had the prospect of games five and seven on their home court. And I believe Drew said yesterday, was it Drew that we talked to about this? Or- Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. He brought this up...
9:01
that it wasn't much longer than this. It was longer, right? Like, the, the Celtics odds were a little longer than the T-Wolves. Last year Celtics down three to nothing, and also, who knows, down three to one.
9:12
I'd be curious to know what they were. Yeah, I'll have to go back and check some of that stuff. If we can find that, that'd be wonderful.
9:16
I mean, the Ce- the Celtics were so, m- I mean, and part of the reason, like, people like you were ke- kept pressing the Heat last year is because the Celtics were so highly power rated by the books that you were, you know- Yeah...
9:28
they, they were seeing big lines on a lo- lot of those games and stuff. This y- mo- you know, these two se- teams are pretty similarly power rated, so.
9:35
And the other thing about last year was that the Heat, you know, played a certain way during the regular season in terms of load management, and this was kind of, it was like a different basketball team in the playoffs.
9:44
And they made every shot they took, so yeah. [laughs] No bitterness from Kelly. None, none whatsoever. It hasn't lasted. He's gotten over it. Uh, but T-Wolves and Mavericks, you're right. So this is...
9:53
Now remember, of course, famously what happened is the Celtics were, were one of only four teams out of those 155 circumstances to date, at the time it was a few, few series less than 155, but they're, they're one of four out of 155 that actually pushed it to a game seven, and then they got blasted on their home court by the Heat.
10:11
Just absolutely run out of the gym. So I ask you, man, as a Mavericks ticket holder, and we'll get to JVT- Mm-hmm... on the T-Wolves side, 'cause I believe he's gonna be very excited here. Yeah, yeah. How, uh...
10:22
You, you will represent, look at Art Monk. You will represent the feeling of the Mavericks fan right now. How nervous are you? Not much. Not mu- oh. No, I don't- I didn't expect that from you. Um.
10:35
I expected a little more humility. No, no, I mean, look, I, I, I don't think it was out... I mean, this, these have been very tight games. Uh, Karl-Anthony Towns, you finally showed up for a game. Congratulations.
10:45
Um, did the Timberwolves look a lot better last night? Absolutely, they looked a lot better. You're able to take one to Dallas. You are gonna go home. But just- Oh yeah.
10:53
But- I don't want to go tr- I don't want to go trend guy, Gil, but yes, but the situation. I've got, I've still got three games to play with, and I've got- Yeah... Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving. No, I'm with you.
11:02
I'm not sweating yet. I'm with you. But you were, you were hu- Checking back games six... you were humbled down three to nothing. You're like, "I'm not, I'm not so comfortable yet," right?
11:08
Well, no, no, it was more the, that, that's where I kept saying the win in game two felt huge. Yeah. The win in game three felt huge. To put yourself up three oh- And have the cushion... and have that cushion.
11:19
You said, you said the T-Wolves looked a lot better last night. Okay, they won. They were up in the last five minutes in all these games. Isn't it just as simple as, oh, the shots actually went down?
11:30
Uh, c- I mean, c- uh, y- sort of. And then Luka, Kyrie, Towns. Karl-Anthony Towns, Towns was a different player last night- Yeah... than he was in the three games prior.
11:36
Ba- basketball can be very simple sometimes, right? Like, we tend to overlook, oh, those shots went in and those shots didn't. Sometimes it can be that simple.
11:43
We'll get JVT's thoughts on it from the T-Wolves ticket holder perspective next. It's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:50
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network Numbers game presented by Zyn Nicotine Pouches, America's number one nicotine pouch. Find out more at zyn.com.
12:06
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12:16
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12:28
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12:40
Remember, though, again, Friday, this Friday, two days from now, the offer expires. So visit vsin.com/subscribe now to grab your 14 months of VSiN Pro for just $199. Again, the promo code is ANG. ANG like a numbers game.
12:54
[laughs] It's vsin.com/subscribe. Less than 50 cents a day. Come on.
12:59
See, Gil, the part you don't remember, though, is, uh, about a month ago, JVT and I, we, we, we, we were in one of the offices, and we were like, "All right.
13:07
Whichever, whoever goes up three games first, Mavs or Timberwolves, in the series that they will eventually meet in, the other guy's gotta pay for two months free for everybody." So that's what's happened.
13:17
JVT is a nice guy. Oh. He's doing that for everybody. Wow. Yeah. That sounds, uh, like we need to corroborate that. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Uh, Jonathan Vontobel, the aforementioned, joins us right now.
13:25
If only we had JVT available to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. We do. Our senior NBA analyst and of course the co-host of VSiN Prime Time. How you doing, JVT? I'm doing okay.
13:36
I'm glad the, uh, Timberwolves have given me a little bit of hope, but, uh, as Matt Umines famously says, there's nothing worse than hope. So I feel nothing. [laughs] Is that his line? There's nothing worse than hope.
13:46
What a gr- what a motto that is. There's nothing worse than hope. That describes Matt. Uh, here's the thing, though. Let's be honest. Okay, just, just us, Jon. You're kind of pumped right now, right? You're feeling it.
13:59
Like, you think this might happen, huh?
14:02
No, I mean, I think that if there was a team, and not just the Timberwolves specifically, but, like, uh, we've talked about this before, and, like, Boston fit this archetype last year.
14:10
If there was a team that was going to overcome a three-nothing deficit, it would be one with home court, right? Because- Yes... you're down three-nothing, you win game four, you go back home, you're gonna be favored.
14:18
They are. You steal that. You gotta win one more road game, and all of a sudden you're looking at game seven. I mean, last year we got game seven, right? As we all remember.
14:24
So I don't know if I think that they can do it, but at the very least, at least I'm not supporting a team that doesn't have home court in a scenario like this.
14:32
They do have some things that work in their favor, and I did think that in the first three games you watched a team that when they lost those match-ups, 'cause, you know, we all know how they were in these crunch time games in the first three contests, that their lack of execution put them in position to lose those games.
14:47
So I at least have those things kind of in my favor. Now, will it happen? Don't know. But I at the very least have some positivity because they have those things working for them, if that makes sense.
14:56
I w- I was mentioning this, I didn't say it in so many words to Kelly in the first segment, but
15:01
w- when handicapping basketball, the NBA, and specifically now when we're this deep in the post-season, you have two great teams like this, do you allow part of yourself to just release to, "Well, if the shots go in, they go in.
15:13
If they don't, they don't. That's just part of this. I gotta deal with that as, as a just sort of randomness thing"? Yeah, I mean, you, you have to, right?
15:21
I mean, Karl-Anthony Towns is a perfect example of it in those first three games [laughs] shooting. Going into that game yesterday, he's averaging 15 points and shooting 30%, or less than 30%- Yeah... from the floor.
15:30
So, you know, if a couple of those shots hit, then all of a sudden you're looking a little bit better.
15:34
So, and especially in a game which, what, going into yesterday, what was the, uh, difference in the three, first three games? It was, like, 12 points or whatever it was.
15:40
I, i- that's, that's a lot of stuff that doesn't work in your favor. So there is part of that where you, the shots just have to go down for you, and if it doesn't, you gotta chalk it up to some variance and bad luck.
15:48
If you didn't have your T-Wolves bet, let's say you were coming into this fresh, game five, T-Wolves are four and a half point favorites. Total's 209 and a half. Would you make a play on either? I mean, I think I would.
15:59
I, I, I think when you look at it, I would go toward, I, it, look, the, as somebody who thought the unders were the play and then we saw the first three games go under, and we finally saw the game yesterday, um, but I, I think that I would go under.
16:09
I, I think one of the things that the Timberwolves did yesterday that did work a little bit, and I don't know if it's gonna work to this degree, was switching those defensive match-ups on Kyrie Irving and, and Luka Dončić, putting Jaden McDaniels as the primary defender on Kyrie, uh, putting Ant on Luka as a primary defender.
16:23
Luka can't all of a sudden have this physical mismatch where he's, you know, putting his shoulder into Jaden McDaniels and, and pushing him back six feet to create separation.
16:30
Kyrie Irving all of a sudden isn't outplaying, uh, from a speed standpoint, his isolated defender.
16:35
Jaden McDaniels can actually stay with him, and thus you get these two inefficient performances from those two guys for the first time in a long time, and I think a lot of that had to do with the way the Timberwolves were playing.
16:43
And they want to play that type of game, right? They want to play slower pace, defensive oriented. They held the, the, uh, Mavericks to a, an offensive rating in a half court of under 90, which is very, very good.
16:53
So I would think that because of that switch, because of that change, and one that I think does work, I would tend to think that that, again, back at home in your environment, is going to be a game which goes under the total.
17:03
I'm assuming, 'cause when Kelly and I were sort of... Or I said it. I'll, I'll speak for myself.
17:07
I was saying the eight, anywhere between eight to one and ten to one on the T-Wolves down three to nothing was the most ridiculous series price I've ever seen, and now the plus 450, uh, plus 425 even we're showing at DraftKings down three to one.
17:18
Kelly, would you like to, uh, would you like to voice what you were saying off air? I, I, uh, son, I, I'd give JVT p- plus 425. We'd take the vig out of this conversation. Jon, would you- I mean, I, I- Go ahead.
17:29
[laughs] Well, I was gonna say, personally, I already have some, so I don't need it. [laughs] Right, yeah. I don't think either of us need it, but yeah. No, but, but, I, I mean, yeah, I, I thought it was...
17:37
I, I think it's a little short. There's some belief there. I also think that when you looked at, like, there's a lot of Twitter talk about this.
17:43
I don't know if you guys picked up on this, but a lot of folks were surprised by the series price only because the teams never come back from down three-nothing.
17:49
[laughs] So there was a lot of like, "It should be 100 to one," [laughs] which was a little extreme. A little extreme. But I kind of, I get- Yeah...
17:55
yeah, I get the, I get the thought process about behind it, what you're talking about. Um, okay.
18:00
The hypothetical series prices for the NBA finals Has the Celtics at minus 225-ish when last we looked, and both the Mavericks and T-Wolves plus 180-ish on the comeback. Do you, do you buy into those numbers?
18:15
Yeah, I mean, I th- I would, I think it's, to me it would be the underdogs, I think, in both of those series.
18:20
Uh, only because, look, Boston has been power rated to the moon for a very long time, and we do have some strong evidence that they're a little overvalued at this point right now.
18:28
You look at the ATS numbers, uh, which they have been failing to cover at a pretty wide margin. Their spread by, their spread differential in this postseason, uh, is in the negatives, has not been very good.
18:38
Uh, we watched that series against Indiana.
18:39
You get credit for winning, but obviously the stat that everybody knows in three of the games that they played, they had a win percentage of over 90% in the fourth quarter, whatever it was.
18:46
Like, I think Boston's a very good team, but I, I think that they have been power rated a little too high for a while now, and I do think that there is a higher probability that both Minnesota, should they move on, uh, or Dallas, which is likely that they move on, uh, wins that series against the Boston Celtics for both of those teams.
19:02
So to me, it would be both underdogs. I understand the belief in Boston to an extent, but y'all, I've been saying this for a while.
19:07
You know, there's a, there's a lot of people in the analytics community that, that bet the NBA that do have this blind faith in Boston, and I get that Porziņģis might come back- Yeah, man...
19:14
but, you know, there's a, this is a team that has struggled in crunch time throughout this entire tenure, not just this year.
19:20
We're talking about the last two years in overwhelmingly ne- negative net rating in crunch time.
19:24
I just don't know why we're assuming that those issues are going to be fixed in a best of seven against two extremely good defensive teams, and two teams that are much better than the three teams that you faced on their way to the NBA finals.
19:34
I agree with you. You making any random Bronny James bets, by the way, JVT? Uh, no. I did, I did bet, uh, I do have an NBA draft bet, though.
19:40
I did bet, uh, as Kelly O'Donnell and Clingan to go number one overall at 12 to one. Um, so I do have an NBA draft bet in pocket, but I am not going to bet, uh, Bronny James to go number one overall.
19:51
But if you've been paying attention, you know, he can get... There was multiple shops with his draft position. It ranges from, if I remember correctly off the top of my head, 38 and a half to 46 and a half. Yeah.
20:00
So you could set yourself up pretty nicely and just sit back and watch where he goes. Yeah, we'll have to, uh... We, we gotta press, uh, we'll press Zach a little bit more, uh, for the, the draft information.
20:09
He got Clingan at 60 to one, did he, Zach? Yeah. He did, he did bring that up in the text conversation about a week ago. He said it on air with us. Oh, he did? Yeah. Oh, he did, he did. Yeah. Okay. Yeah.
20:17
Okay, uh- And by the way, shout out to Zach, 'cause I just totally... He was like, "You know, this makes sense." And I was like, "It does," and then I went and bet it.
20:22
[laughs] I, I, I think, I actually think in the conversation went, Zach was like, "Yeah, I'm kind of interested in this," and I was like, "What do you think? Like draft position or something?"
20:30
And then JVT just fired to win a ticket away. He's like, "Yeah, I bet him number one right already." [laughs] Draft coming up, uh, June 28th. June 28th for the NBA draft.
20:39
Uh, before you go, JVT, we have about 90 seconds here. Little birdie told me that, uh, you also have a May most wins bet in Major League Baseball. Is that true? Yeah, I got two of them, actually.
20:49
I got the Phillies and the Guardians, so- Oh... this is a big week. Yeah. Yeah. We, we got two horses in the race. Thank God my Angels actually did something for me yesterday and beat the Yankees.
20:57
Oh, bro, I was loving your Angels last night. [laughs] You guys are big Angels fans. Woo! [laughs] Uh, I'm all about the Guardians. Um, and we'll get into the standings on that coming up after the break.
21:06
So what number did you get both teams at? Uh, I've got, uh, I've got the, uh, Guardians at, like, 10 to one, and then the, the Phillies number I missed out on. It moved quickly.
21:14
I have only got them at, like, nine to one. So those are the two that I've got right now. And did you do it at Circa or at William Hill Caesars? I bet it at Circa. Okay, so you're with me.
21:23
You have the, the tiebreaker situation of fewest wins and, um, best run differential, which is a, a slightly different sort of scenario here down the stretch.
21:33
Not much of a different scenario, but slightly different than the, the dead heat shops. All right, JVT, now that I know that, um, so you have both.
21:39
So the problem with that, of course, as you know, is the Yankees are the favorite right now, right? Yes. Yeah. Mm-hmm. That, that's the issue. Okay.
21:47
Anything- Well, I mean, I would say the o- the one thing that I think worked out for us was the, the win yesterday, obviously, but I thought that the Angels' best shot at a win was gonna be Sandoval, who starts at the end of the series.
21:56
So- Yeah... they get this win last night, and then they can steal one maybe at the end of the series, it would be good.
22:00
It would also be nice if the Phillies took advantage of Zach Wheeler absolutely dominating the Giants last night. That would be cool, too.
22:05
Well, and you know, John, once again, I'll say it for the 1,000th time, it's called Giants magic. I'm not sure if you're aware of that. [laughs] It's those uniforms. Jonathan V- yes, those orange uniforms.
22:14
Jonathan Vontobel, everybody, @meJVT, senior NBA analyst and, of course, co-host of BSIN Primetime. Thank you, JVT. Good luck with your T-Wolves. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it. Washington, Buffalo, January, 1992.
22:27
It's like that, uh- Chris, I'm gonna have to change this channel. [laughs] Do you remember that Chris Andrews, Zach, uh, his cousin Zach, Chris Andrews told the story.
22:33
Chrissy and his cousin Zach, their Uncle Jack, Franz, Franz Ysu, he, they, he would make them bet on a game that they didn't know was taped. [laughs] This is exactly what we're talking about. This is a great story.
22:45
We'll come back. The Guardians update next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. This segment is brought to you by ZYN nicotine pouches.
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23:43
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23:50
It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin live from Bar Canada, Bar Canada, The Barrage here at the D, downtown Las Vegas. Uh, we get tweets at Beating the Book. Always appreciate the feedback. Best listeners in the game.
24:02
I will stand by that. Las Vegas 514, "Yo, don't tease us. What did the great Art Monk do in this game? Tell it[laughs] Jim, I'll tell you what he, uh, if you really want me to answer that literally- [laughs]...
24:13
is that he missed the first two Super Bowl wins they had, and so this was huge that he got to play in this. Uh, Jim, James Sott.
24:19
By the way, I think he had, like, a controversial touchdown in the back of the end zone, too, that got ruled out of bounds, which we were bummed about also. Uh, more of an answer than you wanted, wasn't it?
24:28
James Sott, uh, "Keep checking multiple books here in Ohio, uh, but looks like they've locked out the endgame for that Super Bowl, Gil. Damn."
24:35
I felt I could really hit the books on that one, too, and make some good bank. Back to the French Open and the Guardians, I guess. Yes, we will get to both next here. The numbers guys, uh, would you be better betting...
24:45
Okay, this is a great question. I'm glad you are pointing this out because it occurred to me on the break that we're not conveying this properly.
24:52
The numbers guys asks, "Would you be better betting the Timberwolves money line for games five, six, or seven, or the series bet of the Timberwolves at plus 425?"
25:01
I wanna point this out, uh, 'cause we're, we're saying these are the most ridiculous prices ever. Mathematically, they are not, okay? So let me be clear about this.
25:10
So the plus 425 or plus 450, whatever you're seeing the T-Wolves at right now, if you did a parlay, right, on the T-Wolves money lines in games five, six, and seven, that's about exactly what the price ought to be.
25:24
So mathematically, that is the price. Also, before g- now, before game four, was it exactly accurate? No, you were getting a little bit
25:34
chintzed out of money, uh, in terms of what the line should have been, but it wasn't, like, egregiously mathematically bad. It was... Th- this one's m- this one's almost dead on.
25:43
Before game four, um, you should have gotten just a little more bang for your buck.
25:48
The point in saying that these are just unbelievable lines does come from that historical trend, and JBT brought up the fact that, you know, some people on Twitter are like, "That should be 100 to one."
25:56
Well, no, it shouldn't be. So I just wanna be clear for those who are, who are wondering exactly what we mean by this.
26:03
Mathematically, this number is actually correct, but if you, if you take the other side of it, you're like, "Well, then, Gil, why should historical trends matter? It's a historical trend." If you take, like, the Dr.
26:13
Bob side of things, when he handicaps sports, he has a two-pronged approach to handicapping sports.
26:19
He has his mathematical model, and then he has what he call his technical analysis, which we know as historical database trends. And if a trend is...
26:28
By the way, most people, you know, most sharp bettors, when they hear the word trend, we are not a trend show, th- they sort of recoil. But I'm not a, I'm not a black-and-white guy on everything.
26:37
I don't believe in 100% here on stuff. There are some trends, to use that verboten word, that actually make sense, in football particularly, right? With rest, coming off byes, playing a team that has less rest.
26:49
Like, those things matter. Um, and I would argue that 0-155 ought to be factored to some degree into the price. Should it be 100 to one? No. Um, is plus 450 mathematically incorrect?
27:03
It is not, but there should be some, in my opinion, bump- I, that-... for the history. I think that's a, that's a great clarification. Uh, gla- glad we got that question. Yep. Thank you for sending it in.
27:13
Uh, good breakdown. You're right pr- uh, price-wise, but that's, the way that I'm talking about it, yes, is a lot of that factored in, sure. David J agrees with me.
27:21
He goes, "Shots definitely went in for the, uh, T-Wolves last night," and he agrees with what I said w- I said, "And they didn't for Luka and Kyrie," he says, "But alternatively, they did not for Luka and Kyrie.
27:30
Uh, 13 of 39, five of 17 from behind the arc combined. Coulda, shoulda won the game easily. I'm salty, had the Mavs over. #That'sWhyWePlayTheGame."
27:40
Um, Kevin Ryan, "As unpredictable, Gil, as unpredictable as the Wolves-Mavs has been, a sure bet to the overs how many times either Luka or Kat will throw their arms up to complain about a call. Almost entertaining now."
27:51
Dude, I know. I know. And I'll Ron Burgundy through Rydeko. He said, "How about this for a tough luck? Flew the fam here, and we all have tickets tonight at, uh, Roland Garros." Wow.
28:00
"Hoping to see some play on the outside course, but it's been raining since noon. Get c- I got center in the stadium, hoping to see Anisimova for many reasons, though." Yes, I'm aware of that as well.
28:11
Uh, good luck to you. I hope the rain stops, and I hope we can, uh, see our bets through. All right, Guardians. What a night. Uh, I said Monday was a great day for the Yankees.
28:19
The Yankees were idle, and everybody else, uh, er- But before we just move on real quick- Oh, I'm sorry... uh, 'cause I'm gonna lose these numbers. Oh, please, yes.
28:26
We were talking about what the, uh, we've been talking about what, what was this pricing for the series for the Celtics-Heat, right? Oh, yes. In the same situation last year. Thank you for reminding me that.
28:34
So when the Heat were up 3-0, it was Heat minus 1200, Celtics plus 750 at that point. So just for- So same, same deal. Mathematically
28:45
similar because the Celtics probably were whatever favorites, whatever point favorite and corresponding money line the Celtics would've been in games five and seven.
28:53
Here you have the T-Wolves at four-and-a-half point favorites in games five and seven, let's say. Corresponding money line is minus 190. Mm. You put a couple of those in, and then in game six, what would they be?
29:04
Plus 130 or something like that. It comes out to about that number.
29:07
All right, uh, as great as the Monday was for Yankees ticket holders in the most wins in May market in Major League Baseball, and again, shout-out to Circa and to William Hill Caesars, uh, DraftKings did ap- did the March-April with those two shops, but DraftKings did not participate in the May market.
29:25
Um, so we have, we have, I'd say about half the listeners who are on board with this as well. But for those who are, what a night for the Guardians last night. Guardians win.
29:36
Uh, they beat the Rockies at Coors 13 to seven. Side note, Kelly, you ever watch a game at Coors from start to finish? No. It is not enjoyable. [laughs] Or not, not in 20 years.
29:48
It, I don't know what it is, but it's not baseball. [laughs] Okay. It's like, you know, Guardians go up, uh, Guardians went up two to nothing, two to two. Went up four to two, four to four.
29:55
Went up seven to four, seven to seven. Then finally, ten to seven, 13 to seven. But it's like you're watching a pinball machine. Okay. Uh, you don't like the offense?
30:03
I, I mean, I don't have anything against offense, but it's like, that's not why I love baseball- Right... to see, like, a, a band box of a game. Anyway, Gardens g- Guardians get it done, 13 to seven.
30:11
They beat the Rocks at Coors. One more game, uh, today, tonight, uh, at Coors for the Guardians. We'll get to that momentarily.
30:19
While the Guardians were winning, you had the Royals lose to the Twins You had the Phillies lose to the Giants in 10, one to nothing, Giants magic, and you had the Yankees get beat by the Angels with a, uh, two-run RBI shot in the eighth.
30:36
The Angels go up four to three and it holds. And so now, here are the standings. Most wins in the month of May in Major League Baseball. The Phillies are 18 and seven with a run differential of plus 62.
30:49
They've got two games left, Kelly. The Yankees are also 18 and seven with a run differential of plus 52. They've got three games left.
30:58
And then it's the Guardians, our Guardians, 18 and eight, one more loss in the loss column, plus 32 in run differential with two games left.
31:09
We also put the Dodgers and Royals on the screen for reasons that I'll tell you right now. So if you have the bet at Circa, which is where I have it, 16 to one. Remember, March, April was 65 to one.
31:21
Don't remind me, but I'll remind myself. It came down to the final out. We were one out away. Uh, it didn't happen. Now we're 16 to one. So at Circa, there are no dead heats.
31:33
Tiebreaker, fewest losses, followed by best run differential. The Guardians lose on both tiebreakers this month to the Phillies and to the Yankees.
31:42
So the Guardians, for us to win at Circa, which is where I have the ticket, must have more wins, cannot be tied in wins with the Phillies and Yankees. We must exceed them.
31:53
So here are the scenarios for those who have it at Circa. Cleveland goes two and O in their final two games at Colorado today, home against Washington on Friday, May 31st. Philly goes one and one at best.
32:06
Phillies are at San Francisco this afternoon trying to avoid a sweep. Then Phillies are home against St. Louis on Friday. The Yankees, though, have three games left, and that's the rub.
32:16
Two more at Anaheim today and tomorrow, and then at San Francisco on Friday night.
32:21
Because the Yankees have one more game to play than, than do the Guardians and the Phillies, the Yankees are the favorite to win this still, and they're the team that controls own destiny.
32:33
Cleveland, so that's a scenario where Cleveland could win, though. Two and O, Phillies one and one at best, Yankees one and two at best. Ooh, it's gonna be tough. Also, if Cleveland goes one and one,
32:43
Phillies would have to go O and two, Yankees would have to go O and three, Kansas City would have to go two and one at best. That's more unlikely. By the way, bet loses out, right, if the Guardians go O and two.
32:52
For the dead heat shop folks at William Hill Caesars, for those who have a Guardians bet there and have ridden our bet there, uh, there are, is it's only dead heats. There are no tiebreakers.
33:03
And at this point, those two scenarios remain the same for you.
33:07
Again, Cleveland goes two and O, Philly goes one and one at best, Yankees go one and two at best, or Cleveland goes one and one, Philly goes O and two, Yankees go O and three, Kansas City goes two and one at best.
33:19
But, and by the way, you also lose if the Cleveland goes O and two, but you also could dead heat not only with the Phillies and the Yankees in a tie, but also perhaps with the Royals and the Dodgers, any or all of that group of four.
33:34
So you have that ability to tie. Those of us at Circa do not. But here we are. Could happen again. Oh, boy. William Hill next with all his plays.
33:49
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
We're so close to crowning an NBA champ, and with the action heating up on the court, it's even hotter at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA. If you're new to DraftKings, listen up.
34:02
New customers can get a no sweat bet up to 1,500 bucks. Just deposit at least five bucks. You'll get a bonus bet back equal to your first bet if it doesn't hit.
34:11
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now and use code VSin. The crown is yours. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin live from Bar Canada at the D. Uh, let me explain to you what happens here behind the scenes.
34:21
Uh, there was the, uh, Super Bowl, uh, from January of 1992 that was on the screen behind Kelly.
34:26
It involved my boyhood team, uh, the Washington football team, Washington Redskins, and, uh, Kelly just told the people behind the scenes to take that off the screen.
34:35
What he put on the screen, though, is much more dicey. Carlitos Alcaraz is in a situation. Uh, he took the first two sets from he, I guess it's Jesper De Jong is the name. You're giving me way too much credit.
34:46
I didn't do that. Oh, you didn't do it? Okay. I mean, folks at the sportsbook. I just thought I'd throw you under the bus. Uh, and then De Jong- Would you prefer to watch the old sporting event though or the current one?
34:53
[laughs] No, no, no. No, this is great. De Jong won the third set. He took a set from Carlitos, and then he broke Carlitos in set number four.
35:03
Um, I don't know if he got broken back just now, but anyway, he's giving a, a guy who, by the way, when I do tennis matches, he rarely comes up in the spreadsheet, uh, because he rarely plays
35:15
Bane Tour events, quite frankly, besides Clay. But right now he has given Carlitos all he can handle at Roland Garros.
35:22
Iga ought to play, Iga, uh, this q- this match is on Philippe Chatrier, and I believe Iga is also scheduled for Philippe, Philippe Chatrier later.
35:30
Yeah, so as soon as this match ends, we would assume Iga will play against Naomi Osaka. We have the under in that. Will Hill joins us @NotTheWillHill on the Twitter machine.
35:41
Of course, the name of his podcast is Shoulda Bet More. Comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line @NotTheWillHill, as I mentioned. Also part of the, uh, Chris Felica BetBets pod empire over there at Fox Sports.
35:51
How you doing, Will? I'm good. Uh, what should I do here? Alcaraz minus 1600, De Jong is 10 to one. Is that, i- is there a play there or no? Uh, well, it's breakpoint Alcaraz, so I wouldn't touch it. Okay. No.
36:05
Wouldn't touch Alcaraz. Oh no, the guy, we got a newer security guard working today, and he is pumped about the match. That's all I know. Yeah. He just jumped up and down, distracted me for a second. Wow.
36:12
Maybe, maybe he's got some Carlitos money. [laughs] Um, Will, do you have any French, pardon me, you have any French Open bets, by the way? Futures? Nothing other than the ones you sent me, no. There you go.
36:23
Thank you very much. Uh, okay, how about, how about basketball? 'Cause I, I know you are, uh, keeping an eye on that. Do you feel like we could see history with the T- Wolves?
36:32
What's your, what's your gauge on that right now? I mean, you and I did the podcast after Minnesota beat Denver, and you and I are both kind of just threw our hands up.
36:41
And I'm still k- I'm still kind of there where this has just been a strange postseason. Um, I picked Minnesota i- in seven going into this series, so I don't know. The, the first two games s- certainly surprised me.
36:52
The game two surprised me. Usually when the team loses game one at home, they roll in game two, and Minnesota was on their way to doing that, and the Dallas rallies back.
36:58
That's the one, the real curve ball in the series that ha- has kind of gotten this off track for me. And I think it's John Hollinger had the stat, Minnesota has led after f- all four...
37:06
Uh, uh, l- led at the 4:40 mark of all four games. So it's been a strange series. I wouldn't be shocked if we're sitting here playing game seven.
37:13
Like, I, I wouldn't be shocked if Minnesota actually does this for all the g- for all the reasons you guys have mentioned, where not the traditional. You could throw that 155 and 0 out.
37:20
I know it's an overwhelming stat, but a lot of those are, I don't know, like LeBron versus the Bucks when he was on the Heat, and those series are just, you know, over before they start.
37:28
A lot of these just complete mismatches. This is a rare one where you, if you're Dallas now, you only have one chance at home t- to do it. Yeah. And it's gonna take...
37:35
If you don't do it in six, it's gonna take an upset where, yeah, you're four-point favorites in game five, four-point favorites or so probably in game seven if it gets there. Now you got three cracks at it.
37:46
But, uh, you know, maybe the Lively injury is something, uh, that is just not being made enough of. Now who knows if he'll play in game five. He was on the bench, which I guess that's a good sign.
37:55
If you had a concussion, you probably wouldn't be out there on the bench with all those people. But hey, if you're, you're dealing with a strained neck, I don't know how easy it is to play basketball a couple days later.
38:04
Uh, I don't know. I, I, I have my, uh, stu- not stupid, but over five and a half games bet for the series, and it's actually looks like it might get home, who knows.
38:11
So I'm- [laughs] I, I would guess Minnesota would win, but I, again, I don't have a ton of confidence. I will say this though, it's gonna happen at some point.
38:18
Like, happened in baseball, happened a couple times in hockey. You know, I remember as a kid, it's like, oh, is a 16 ever gonna beat one, a one in the NCAA tournament? Now it's happened a couple times.
38:26
These things always find a way to happen eventually, so maybe this is the year it finally happens. Anyway- So Lively thing's huge. Yeah. I'm glad you brought that up, Will. 'Cause it i- it is...
38:34
We didn't really talk about it early. I, I... A, seeing him sitting courtside, yes.
38:38
I think if you're someone like me who's a Mavs ticket, uh, holding tickets on the Mavs, that y- you're not in concussion protocol, so at least you know, you know that's not a set period of time you're already gonna miss.
38:49
Now, is he gonna get back? We don't really know. Um, but man, he, he's been the third-best player on that team right now. I, I...
38:55
What he does, what he, he does defensively and then what he's doing with the lob game with De Luca, he's been the third-most important player in the series for them. So, a- that's a big part of it, for sure. Will?
39:05
I don't think it was a coincidence that Towns got going too with no Lively. Yeah. And then Towns got going a little bit. Yeah. You, you seem to have my... And again, I, I know the basketball betters.
39:14
I, I feel the hate wash over me when I say this kind of thing, but you, I think you're of my mindset, Will, you'll correct me if I'm wrong, where it's, you know, the sports that we tend to bet, uh, I bet baseball, I bet, uh, tennis, I bet football.
39:28
Basketball, to me, is the one where, you know, you said you throw your hands up. I'm kinda like that, where it's like I'm not sure the result proves anything, if that makes any sense, in, in a series like this, right?
39:42
And you just said it. Minnesota's been up, uh, at the 4:40 mark in each of these games, courtesy of John Hollinger. I'm not sure the ultimate result of those games then corroborates any handicap. Does that make sense?
39:56
Yeah, I would agree. And the o- the old saying, it's a make or miss league, there's, uh, there's a lot of truth to that. And again, I just go back to there have been some trends.
40:03
I'm not a huge trend guy, but there have been some trends in the playoffs over the years that are just rock solid. Like I said, like the team losing game one at home, rolling in game two, game seven unders.
40:12
Those trends just haven't, I don't know, come home this year. And just to go back to Denver, Minnesota, that was such a wonky series when you go back to that. [laughs] And that has really- Yeah...
40:20
uh, just kind of colored my whole view of this, where like, what do I actually know? Because Minnesota, Denver up 20 in the second half of a game seven, like you gonna tell me they're gonna blow that? And I got...
40:31
I, I just don't know what I don't know anymore. I don't know what I do know anymore. I think that's fair, and I think that's very honest. I, I feel the same about it. Uh, okay, baseball, what did you play today?
40:41
I played first five under, uh, the... This is a, a doubleheader now, Tigers and Pirates. It is Skubal against Jerry Jones. Both guys have been outstanding.
40:48
Skubal actually got roughed up a little bit a week or so ago against the Royals, but he gets like a full week of rest, so that should be a good pitching matchup.
40:54
Three and a half gets a little dicey, but I, I think that's like a one one, two one after five. Those, those pitchers both, uh, outstanding numbers across the board, every sort of metric, so that should be a fun one.
41:04
And then Skene's pitches later, which will be fun to watch.
41:06
I think that strikeout total for him is juiced up a little bit just because he had that one dominant one against the Cubs a couple weeks ago, that Friday afternoon where he struck out, what was it, like 10 or 11 guys.
41:16
Um, he only had three last time out. He wasn't great against... He was good against the Giants. He was effective, I think it was six, six innings, six hits, three K's, something like that.
41:25
So my, my natural inclination is to play under the strikeouts, just feel like that's jacked up a little bit. So those are the only, uh, plays I have so far. It's, it's tough.
41:33
A lot of day games today, so some of the props starting to pop up. But, uh, that, that's all I got so far. And by the way, y- Gilly alluded to it. You pulled one of the dirtiest moves in sports betting last night.
41:43
[laughs] The reverse jinx jinx on the Yankees. I had the Yankees, and you said, "This one-run lead might, might as well be five runs, it might as well be 10 runs, might as well be..."
41:50
I kept, I kept- You just kept going... I kept doubling it. I kept doubling it. You just kept going. Dirty move. [laughs] I've done it. I've done it. I know a dirty move when I see it, and that was a dirty move.
41:56
[laughs] It was a dirty move. I ne- I needed the loss, so I, I really ginned it up. [laughs] Uh, I also need a loss from your Yankees today. It is Luis Gil on the hill. Is he, is he pitching for your Yankees today?
42:06
Uh, can we get some regression here? Yeah. A 203 BABIP, a 5.8% home run to fly ball rate. I mean, come on, man. Like, let's, let's have that manifest today against the Angels, please. Stats don't measure heart, Gill.
42:20
Stats don't measure heart. That's right. I'll tell you what that is. Se- seven and a half, by the way, Will, on, uh, Skene's, uh, strikeouts. Yeah, that's a little high. I, I'd be, be inclined to play the under there.
42:30
Yeah, I mean, it's gonna happen at some point for Gil. His stuff is great. Doesn't give up the homers, doesn't give up Uh, a lot of hits, but the walks are concerning. You figure a blowup at some point.
42:37
I wouldn't lay that number with, uh, with the Yankees. Maybe an Angels team total over, because at some point, yeah, that...
42:43
All it takes, you, you walk a couple guys, all it takes is a bloop double here or there and, and you're in some trouble, for sure. Yeah. I'm looking to see what his, uh, strand rate is. 81.4%.
42:51
Yeah, so basically Louise Heel in two months of baseball is, is doing exactly what Blake Snell managed to do for an entire season last year, put guys on base and then escape, essentially.
43:03
Um, real quick about the Skeens thing. Does it trouble you at all that it's a double header? In other words, that the lineup he faces could be squirrelier than normal? They get a little squirreliness.
43:14
That's, uh, that's a good point. I won't go, I won't go crazy on it, but I do think it's just naturally inflated a little bit. Okay.
43:19
Is there a futures bet or an awards bet that you have made since the last time we spoke? I added it yesterday when you guys were talking about it. I like Phillies minus 150 to win the division.
43:28
Doesn't ex- they haven't played well here. I think that this is, uh, three losses in a row. Giants magic last night, they couldn't get anything for Wheeler.
43:34
But I just think without Acuna, without Strider, it's just starting to mount, and eventually s- we're gonna get the Sale MRI and he's gonna miss a couple.
43:41
I mean, it just hasn't been on the back of the baseball card for Sale to stay healthy for seven, eight months at a time, and Philly's got a decent cushion now.
43:48
I di- I didn't like that event last night, that, uh, that start to the bet, but I did b- lay minus 150 with the Phillies to win the division. Isn't that awful? He's like, "Well, eventually we'll get the Sale MRI."
43:56
That's awful. Uh, usually how it goes. I mentioned this last night, that Jose Ramirez is still 25 to 1 to win MVP, whereas like preseason he wasn't much longer than that.
44:05
And I'm thinking about betting it, and you as a Yankee fan said you don't like that. I just said this, somebody should post a prop, will a Yankee... A yes/no prop, will a Yankee win the MVP?
44:14
'Cause then you get Soto and Judge. It'll be a fun one. Okay. Well, enjoy the games and, uh, hope your Yankees lose. Sorry, buddy. Sorry about that yesterday. Hey, guys. Thanks for having me. That was wrong.
44:21
He's right, I was wrong. I, uh, it's a faux pas, but I needed it, so I went ahead and did it. Jonathan Davis, NHL playoffs next on the Numbers Game at Visa, the sports betting network.
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