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May 29, 2024
A Numbers Game | May 29, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 29, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, brought to you by ZYN nicotine pouches, America's number one nicotine pouch. Find out more at zyn.com. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin.
0:18
VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, however you're taking us in, we appreciate it. Uh, still to come this hour on the show, um, actually looking forward to, uh, Jason Weingarten from Under A Cloud of Smoke.
0:31
We'll, uh, we'll also have to talk some RBC, uh, golf as well. Kelly is ready to, uh, talk golf with us later, yeah? Fire, yep. Little handicapping on golf.
0:39
Uh, but first, some hockey talk, 'cause the NHL playoffs have been spectacular. Jonathan Davis joins us once again, uh, to do just that from SiriusXM NHL. How you doing, Jonathan?
0:50
Courtesy The Progressive guest line, by the way. What's happening? I'm doing great. Another, uh, fun night, uh, in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
0:58
Uh, yeah, the Rangers and, and Panthers have been providing us with some bonus hockey. It's been great.
1:04
Uh, we should note, Jonathan is the host of The Ice Cap on SiriusXM NHL, host of Show Me the Money hockey betting podcast as well. You can follow him on Twitter @WestCoastHKY for hockey.
1:14
Did you get the sense in that game last night when the Rangers were up a goal that, you know, this was the, obviously the inflection point of a three to one series versus a two to two series, that the, the Panthers sort of just eking that goal in may turn out to be everything in that series to tie it up at that point?
1:35
I did until the Rangers, uh, and Alexis Lafrenière tied the game at two, and I was like, "Ugh, this is- [laughs]... I, I think fate is on the Rangers' side."
1:46
Uh, but you know, look, the big thing for the Rangers, guys, is that they need to get to four goals. When they get to four, I mean, they're 43 and one regular season and playoffs combined this year.
1:58
Uh, but that was, that was huge last night for Florida. Look, they've been the better team. I, I, I'll, uh, I'll be honest with you guys. Go back to the Carolina series. We, we've now, it's been 10 games.
2:08
If you combine Carolina, the six games there, the four games against Florida, I'd, I'd argue with anybody that they haven't been the be- the better team in any of those 10 games.
2:18
Also, the Rangers have one regulation win in their last nine games. Were you aware of that? Uh, I... That, that does make a lot of sense now that you mention it. Um, yeah. That's absurd.
2:32
That, that, it, it- That is ridiculous... well, but that goes, but that goes to my point about they- Yeah... haven't been the better team for 10 games. Yeah. Yeah.
2:41
You know- It was- They've won multiple games, just to clarify, but they've only won one in regulation. Right. Right. So I mean, think about that- Right... with the vagaries of the overtime. Yeah. Sure.
2:48
Look, their goal- Igor Shesterkin, their goalie, has been outstanding a- and he is, he's the reason why they're here.
2:55
And you should never apologize for having a good goalie, but at some point you would think it's gonna catch up to you, and maybe we'll see that in this series. Because I think there's...
3:05
Florida and Carolina play similar brand of hockey, Florida's just got far more talent. All right.
3:09
Before we get to your thoughts on today and tomorrow, remind us, Jonathan, if you could, where, what you have in pocket here futures-wise. Well, I, I'm feeling really good because I've got Florida...
3:21
As long as Edmonton doesn't make it to the final, I've got Dallas, Florida, and Edmonton. Uh, I got Dallas at 11 to one. I think it's Florida 10 to one and the Rangers at nine to one to win the cup. Um- Wow...
3:35
so I'm feeling really good about where, where things are at from just, you know, Stanley Cup. And yeah, I mean, look, there, there's... I, I've got Miro Heiskanen for the Stars to win the Conn Smythe at 11 to one.
3:48
Uh, I do have Igor Shesterkin at five to one and, and Vinny Trocheck at 30 to one to win Conn Smythe, and I've got some good...
3:55
Look, last night, the best thing that happened to me last night was that the Florida Panthers won because I do have the series going six or seven at, uh, both at over $2, and then I do have Florida also to win in six and seven.
4:08
So I'm feel- You know, I, I'm in a good spot there as well. Okay. So your only kryptonite is pretty much Edmonton every which way, and say if Bobrovsky won Conn Smythe, that would be a kryptonite thing for you. Okay.
4:20
Maybe. It, it- Yeah... yeah, it would. Yeah. Look, I mean, no, no, I exaggerate with kryptonite. You are well set up in every, every which way, that's for sure.
4:27
All right, game four tonight in the West, uh, Dallas up two to one on Edmonton. The Oilers are minus 132 favorites in this game. They are a slight favorite, but down two to one. They're a plus 215 series proposition.
4:42
You have already talked about how you ha- are positioned on Dallas. What are you doing with this game tonight?
4:47
Well, I'm, I'm saying it from a prop standpoint because I do have Dallas at minus one and a half games at plus 165. When Dallas lost game one, I took them on the adjusted series price at plus 170.
5:00
Look, for me, you know, Edmonton l- I understand it. Edmonton, last time I checked the bet splits on, uh, on VSiN, it was 58% bets, 71% money on the Edmonton Oilers.
5:11
And you know, when you look at the total of six tonight, you know, for me, I don't like the total only because, you know, game three was the first road game that Jake Oettinger had given up more than two goals.
5:23
So you're gonna need five, in my opinion, from Dallas most likely to, to, to win your bet. Um, so I don't love the total. So I'm going with a bunch of prop plays here and [laughs] coincidentally they're...
5:36
Although I like Dallas tonight, I, I would play Dallas, uh, if I had to choose a side. I'm going with a couple of Edmonton Oiler prop plays. Zach Hyman who, uh, has Cy Young numbers here in the playoffs, 13 and three.
5:49
That's 13 goals and three assists. [laughs] I, I love his, his over the shots on goal prop at over three and a half at minus 122. I mean, he's, he's hit this number in 10 of 15... playoff games this year.
6:02
He's the guy that they're gonna be feeding to score goals tonight, so I like him at, at over three and a half shots on goal. Uh, also Dylan Holloway for the Edmonton Oilers, over one and a half shots on goal.
6:13
He's hit that number in six straight games, so I, I like that. Also Stuart Skinner, under 23 and a half shots on goal. That number has cashed in eight of the last nine games, and most of those are losses.
6:26
So again, it's another way to approach things if you do like Dallas. And then finally, the last prop in this one, Wyatt Johnston, the young phenom for the Dallas Stars, over two and a half shots on goal.
6:38
It hit the last game. I like the fact that now r- now with the return of their number one center Roope Hintz, he gets slotted down further in the lineup, gets better, better opportunities for shots.
6:49
He l- he's tied for the team lead in shots in the, uh, playoffs. He was second in the regular season, so I'm approaching it really f- I'm approaching things tonight from a prop standpoint.
6:59
Did you give your Stuart Skinner s- uh, thoughts? Did I miss that? Yeah, no, I did. Okay. So under 23 and a half shots on goal. Okay. Yeah.
7:06
Look, the only time that that went, went over in the last nine games, it took overtime to get there.
7:12
So let's review 'cause that, those are five different bets, uh, four specifically in tonight's game, five moving forward. The one moving forward is Dallas minus one and a half games at plus 165. Uh, Jonathan likes that.
7:26
But as far as the game, uh, tonight is concerned, again, on the Dallas side, Wyatt Johnston over two and a half shots on goal. Two and a half SOGs, Kelly.
7:34
Uh, and then Edmonton, Skinner under 23 and a half saves, and then in terms of the shots on goal, Zach Hyman over three and a half shots on goal. Dylan Holloway over one and a half shots on goal.
7:45
I know you don't have any, uh, thoughts or, or bets on it necessarily at this moment, but tomorrow night, uh, with that series knotted up at two games a piece, we go back to New York.
7:55
The Rangers are now dogs in the series at plus 130, despite having the, uh, the home ice, and the Panthers are a little bit slightly less of a favorite in the game specific, game five, but still a favorite nonetheless.
8:11
You, you're just on board with the Panthers at this point. I would play Florida. Look, the other, you know, the thing with the Rangers right now, their blue line is pretty banged up.
8:19
Uh, Adam Fox, Ryan Lindgren, uh, and K'Andre Miller, three of their top six defensemen all looked like they took a pounding, uh, in last night's game. Did not look right as the game progressed.
8:31
So I think that that's definitely one thing to look at. And like I said, you know, Florida has outplayed them, I believe, and I feel in all four games. Um, so I, I, yeah.
8:43
Look, e- even the Rangers still continue though, Rangers fans would s- will tell you that they don't get any respect. They haven't...
8:49
They've been a dog throughout this series, uh, but I think there's, there's good reason for it. I, I, I will play Flor- I would play Florida in game five if I didn't have in pocket what I already do have.
9:00
Um, do you have it, by your numbers, do you have what you have a fair price at as i- in a Panthers Stars series?
9:10
Um, well, I, God, I mean, my, my numbers are, you know, are great because I've got 11 to 1 for Florida and, and th- No, I'm saying in terms of the s- in terms of what a series price would be. Oh, a series price?
9:22
I would, I would probably put, I would put Dallas at maybe about minus 115. So the slightest of favorites. D- DraftKings actually has it posted. Yeah, that, I was saying- Yeah...
9:34
what are Jonathan's numbers I wanna see juxtaposed against the actual. Y- just a little flip. So Panthers minus 115, Stars minus 105. That's what I was trying to get at, Jonathan. Okay.
9:42
Where, where y- how different your numbers are from the actual. So not much, is what, yeah. I mean, yeah. I, I, you know, even if you to- Yeah, I, I, I, I can see it e- either way.
9:52
I mean, I, I, these two teams are just so evenly matched. You know, if it does end up this way, guys, you know, both these teams had the best road records in the NHL in the regular season.
10:02
Dallas still has the best road record in the playoffs. They're six and one. But yeah, i- i- it really, it's pretty much a coin flip o- once we get to the final, if that's the matchup that we do get.
10:13
Last thing- But the Rangers still have a lot to say. Yeah, they do. A lot, a lot to still be determined, especially in the East, but also in both. Um- Yeah...
10:20
I'm curious your, your thoughts on Florida and Dallas here in our last minute.
10:24
Just from a recent history perspective or maybe even a more than recent history perspective, Florida and Dallas, special through the years or just sort of, you know, you know, your, your, your garden variety Stanley Cup Final finalists?
10:39
Well, no, Florida, I mean, look, they, they were, you know, look, they g- they lost to Vegas last year.
10:44
Um, Dallas keeps getting better and better, and both these teams, guys, there are teams that are built, I think, for the regular season, and there are teams that are built for the playoffs.
10:53
Both these teams have guys that would run over their mother to win the Stanley Cup, and I, I very much would look forward to both of these teams being in there.
11:02
I will say, I would love to see Connor McDavid i- in, in a Stanley Cup Final. Wouldn't, it wouldn't help me from a betting standpoint, but I think it'd be great for the league.
11:10
I think the league wants the Rangers and Edmonton, to be honest. Yeah, that could be. Jonathan Davis, always appreciate it, Jonathan. Thank you so much and enjoy. Good luck with all the bets. Well positioned, sir.
11:21
Thank you. Always a pleasure, guys. And he's got some great, great numbers on, uh, three of the four remaining teams. Host of the, uh, Ice Cap on Sirius XM NHL, and again, Show Me the Money: Hockey Betting podcast.
11:32
Follow him on Twitter @WestCoastHKY. Uh, where will LeBron James play next year? Where will Paul George play next year? Where will Klay Thompson play next year? You can bet on all of the above. That's next.
11:46
Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network It is a numbers game.
12:04
Live from Bar Canada here at the D, Skill Alexander. Stormy Bonatoni joins us for a word about Zyn in your Zyn moment. This is your betting moment of Zyn, brought to you by Zyn nicotine pouches.
12:18
Find your moment of Zyn at zyn.com. Stormy Bonatoni here with VSiN, the sports betting network, diving into the odds for offensive rookie of the year in the NFL.
12:27
To the surprise of no one, number one overall pick Caleb Williams is the shortest shot to claim the hardware at plus 135.
12:33
The Bears QB set to be a day one starter and has plenty of skill position talent to work with, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, fellow top 10 pick Rome Odunze to name a few, and the Bears on paper have one of the weaker strengths of schedule.
12:44
From one former Heisman Trophy winner to another, Commanders QB Jayden Daniels is next on the odds board at plus 650.
12:49
Daniel's ability as a runner should help his case, especially with new OC Kliff Kingsbury in tow, who helped the similarly mobile Kyler Murray win the award with the Cardinals in 2019.
12:59
Speaking of Arizona, Marvin Harrison Jr. is a seven to one shot, followed by JJ McCarthy at 12 to one. This has been your daily betting moment of Zyn. Learn more about Zyn smoke-free nicotine pouches at zyn.com.
13:08
Warning: this product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical. Thank you, Stormy. Skill Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin. By the way, I said a Zyn moment.
13:15
You know, it sounds much better if I say a moment of Zyn. There you go. I think that's what you're s-supposed to say. Zyn it to win it. Okay. Sure. Just keep me... I keep making up taglines for them.
13:24
I'm gonna Ron Burgundy through some tweets. We get tweets at Beating the Book. Kyle Rybasel, "As a Rockies fan from day one, I can't understand why a Giants fan wouldn't love Coors Field.
13:34
Coors is typically good for eight to 10 Giants win a year [laughs], not to mention Barry Bonds hit several homers at Coors that still haven't landed." Well, yes, there is that, for sure.
13:44
Um, and by the way, Coors Field, the o- the only ballpark that has wider dimensions than Oracle Park in San Francisco is Coors Field, so it's not that like they're dissimilar in that respect.
13:54
But one is a pitcher's park in San Francisco, the way that it plays, and the one at Coors, as you very well know, is a doubles and triples alley, uh, extravaganza.
14:04
And, uh, I do think it is, as I've said many times on this show, I think it's particularly problematic for roster construction for the, for the Rockies themselves because it just plays so differently at home than it does on the road in terms of hitters ability, um, and pitchers.
14:20
Because the pitch is just n- like, you know, I, I used to say this about Sergio Romo's slider. It ain't sliding at Coors. It just, it's, it's such a different environment.
14:29
Uh, By Week, uh, no, Futures_Bet, uh, "Caught Advocate Skirmish napping last week. They had, uh, Jose Ramirez at 70 to one for AL MVP." Are you kidding me last week? Wow. We'll see if he wins, but good value.
14:45
Man, you ain't kidding. That's amazing. Uh, Sean Foxplace, he says, "All the crazy craziness, uh, that, uh..." Oh, Rich Paul, he had a typo here, "... is trying to do the Lakers plus 160 to draft. Bronny seems too good.
14:58
Refusing to sign two-way contract though means he will have to sit on the bench all season. Also, over 39 is a lock as I see Laker buying pick in end of the second round."
15:07
Yeah, uh, the Bronny James thing is, like people who are betting him to go first in the draft, like that's a joke. But there are bets to be made. Absolutely are bets to be made. It's a, it's, uh,
15:17
I think it was a conversation, like you jokingly brought up once or twice, like in the past few weeks 'cause it's, it's kind of been a little bit of a joke just overall, but the wa- I love that we do all this reporting from the Bronny, LeBron standpoint, NBA.
15:30
Like the NBA combine, he actually had a pretty good combine. Yeah. Like [laughs] and like nobody talks about that, right? Like it's- Well, no, the joke-... like not a part of the story or barely a part of the story.
15:39
Yeah, let's be clear. The joke was that he was gonna get picked first in the draft. Yeah. Yes. That was the only prop that was up there, right? Like p- And it was the most bet thing at DraftKings. Mm-hmm.
15:49
Like what are y'all doing? But in terms of now, you know, like positioning himself to be with his dad and what, you know, what range of picks he can go, go in, I mean, that's a, those are bets.
15:59
Those are legitimate bets whether you win or lose.
16:01
Yeah, I, I, I think the part that I'm, I'm a little confused of the, what, the narrative out of the LeBron, Bronny camp of for so long, even through the combine, he was...
16:10
You know, Bronny's talking, "Hey, I d- you know, I kinda wanna be able to get out on my own and do my own thing."
16:14
And it's like, well, but I- So it really feels like we're right back to positioning to make sure that he's with his dad playing somewhere. Brian Schaefer, last tweet here, "Thanks Gil.
16:24
Uh, this show brings a lot of betting opportunity. Jumped on Carlitos to win the fourth set when he was down a break in that set." I assume a break, he said down in that set.
16:32
"If you ain't listening to ANG, you ain't making money."
16:35
Um, before we get to the, uh, where will, you know, the Bronny, uh, props and then the, uh, LeBron, Clay, and Paul George, I wanna say real quick because you're gonna do RBC Golf later. This just popped into my head.
16:46
I wanted to bring this up 'cause when we were teasing the RBC Canadian Open and the Golf tour, or PGA Tour, um, Bill Walton, did the whole, uh, tribute to Bill Walton yesterday on the show as so many have, and Bill Walton passing away at the age of 71.
16:59
Just, yeah, spectacular. One of the things that I wanted to point out to folks was recommending watching the four-part 30 for 30 series on Bill Walton. It is life-affirming. It's so great, uh, produced by Ezra Edelman.
17:12
Um, and one of the things, one of the details that I remembered from that documentary, that docuseries, Kelly, is that when the Blazers won the NBA championship, I used to say that in 1978 when the Bullets won the championship, the Washington Bullets, Sports Illustrated ran the article
17:30
on page 75, which is a true story. This was pre Magic and Bird getting drafted in '79. So in '78 when the Bullets won, Sports Illustrated by, it was a oh by the way.
17:40
The year before that, when the Blazers won the world... I say the w- world series. When the Blazers won the NBA championship in 1977, it was on a Saturday, Saturday, and CBS producers tried to get the game
17:57
played at 10:30 AM Pacific. The reason Because the Kemper Open's third round was going on, and the producer at CBS thought golf was much more important than the NBA championship. [laughs] And not a golf major- Yeah...
18:15
the Kemper Open. So now they relented a little bit. The game got played at 12:00 noon Pacific.
18:21
So the Blazers won the NBA championship in the middle of the day on a Saturday so they could air the third round of the Kemper Open.
18:29
And by the way, as soon as the Blazers won, and in those days the court got stormed in Portland. Mm-hmm. So it's full of fans. Brent's doing the game, Brent Musburger, our own Brent Musburger. Yeah.
18:38
By the way, happy belated 85th to Brent. They're going crazy. Brent has to throw it to the Kemper Open. So imagine the mayhem, and then it goes to this silence. Right. And Vin Scully's like, "Here's the putt."
18:51
No trophy presentation, no nothing. So the, these are the things when we talk about, we often start talking about, like, you know, what markets would be bad for the NBA finals or whatever, right?
19:02
And it, and it's l- like, local TV ratings just don't matter nearly as much anymore. Back then, though, they did. [whistles] And Portland's not giving you big time TV ratings.
19:11
So I'm wondering if that's a part of the reason. Maybe. And then what? You probably had Jack Nicklaus or something like that, uh, playing. Just to let you know where the N- That's incredible...
19:18
just to let you know where the NBA was at the time. Yeah, that's incredible. Can, can I... I, I just stumbled upon some, uh, some record, uh, some record breaker props that DraftKings has posted- Yes...
19:28
for the NBA playoffs. I, I gotta bring up a couple of these. Um, these are, so all time playoff records, right? And then odds if they will be broken.
19:38
Any player to break Michael Jordan's single game playoff points record of 63 points. There's only yes options on these, of course. 45 to one if you're interested in that.
19:47
There's, there's only a yes option, that's bad news, people. Yeah, it's bad news. Um, I'm trying to f- find the Wilt one. This is- Jordan did that against the Celtics in the first round of the playoffs...
19:55
this is an all time great. This is like, I b- I was laughing so hard when I stumbled upon this. Uh, any player to bu- uh, break Wilt Chamberlain's single game playoffs rebound record of 41 rebounds.
20:05
[laughs] What number are they giving on that? What, what would you like, what odds would you think should be on that, Gil? A bajillion to one? Uh, you're getting, you're getting 1,000 to one. You're getting 1,000 to one.
20:14
But, uh- Wow... I think you're gonna need even higher than that. That's low. [laughs] I'm gonna rely on Rudy Gobert or something like that to get 41 rebounds? [laughs] There's just like, there's just- Yeah...
20:24
in today's NBA, there's no way that's happening. Uh, which team will draft Bronny James? Lakers plus 180. Everybody including the Phoenix Suns.
20:34
Remember yesterday Bronny said, "I'm only working out for the Lakers and the Suns." Everybody including the Suns, 10 to one or longer. Yeah, I, I, I got nothing here. I mean, interesting to point out the odds.
20:43
Like we said, we did hear that- Yeah... yesterday, that he's only gonna work out for those two. Um, I don't know, I'm very, I'm just kind of sitting on the sidelines very curious to see how this all plays out.
20:52
Yeah, me too. I'm, I'm rooting the best for Bronny, I just hope we're making right decisions here. Wanna throw up the other three real quick here? Yeah, absolutely. LeBron. Happy to.
20:58
LeBron James himself, uh, Lakers are minus 450. Cavs, [laughs] a return of the Cavs. Yeah. Seven to one. Warriors, 12 to one. Everybody else 16 to one. Suns are 16 to one, by the way.
21:10
So this, like, I, the only th- the only reason that I would say that this isn't a bet is because of the Bronny James factor. Like, if there's still a,
21:20
a possibility that he does, he ha- that LeBron's gotta go wherever his son ends up going.
21:26
When I walked in the D this morning, you know, all the screens are up, and ESPN was doing a whole segment on what are the chances of LeBron ending up with the Sixers. Are we gonna do this- No, of, of-...
21:35
a different team every day? Of course we're, of course we are, Gil, but it's not, he does the same thing every year. He's got a player option. Oh. He opts out to sign for more money.
21:43
He's gonna be right back with the Lakers. The only thing I'd be concerned about is the X factor this year is Bronny James that hasn't been around in years before.
21:51
It's really, it's becoming The Real Housewives of the NBA. Like, all these people apologizing to each other, Draymond apologizing to Stephen A.- That was so weird yesterday... Stephen A. and Kyrie.
21:58
What are they apologizing? What is going on? I was watching the pregame show so confused the entire time. Paul George, same with the Clips show, is minus 270. Sixers are four to one. Everybody else double digits.
22:08
Yeah, this one's really fascinating. He's been linked to the Sixers for a while here. I, I, I don't know that, I don't think he'll pro- I don't think he'll be back with the Clippers.
22:16
I think he is likely playing elsewhere next season. All right. And, um, it, it, the, the Sixers are going to make a, they're gonna make a push for him, for sure. Here's the one I'm really interested in.
22:25
Klay Thompson, back to the Dubs, back to the Warriors, minus 150. Magic are three to one, everybody else 16 to one or longer. Yeah, this is, uh- Think he's leaving?... I think Sixers will be, I don't know.
22:37
I think s- I, I, I think he should. I don't know if he will. I think he should. I mean, he's gonna get offended by a low offer? I guess so. We'll come back. Jason Weingart from Under A Cloud Of Smoke next.
22:51
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23:03
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23:16
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23:25
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23:29
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23:41
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23:57
Gil Alexander, real quick, a few tweets here, just a couple tweets maybe. Michael F-, uh, Lafon, "Love your show, Gil, but, uh, I'm having a rough time with all the basketball talk.
24:06
Can we check in with Nick Maki or something? I miss football." There's gonna be some people like that, right? All the time Uh, master of puppets. He says, "Only two teams for Klay, Lakers or Golden State."
24:17
Let's get back to that in a second.
24:18
And then RossTheOne, Thomas, sorry, says, "I remember being so excited when I was a kid that my dad would let 11-year-old me stay up till 11:30 PM Eastern to watch the Celtics on tape delay in the NBA playoffs."
24:29
That's the other thing of that era, Kelly. Yeah. [laughs] Tape delay. We could, we would watch, not the weekend games, but the weekday NBA finals in the late '70s was on tape delay after the local news at night.
24:41
That's awesome. [laughs] It's amazing that we lived in a world like that.
24:45
Real quick, uh, 'cause, well, before we get to Jason Weingarten, because we, we talked about the Klay's next teams, B- uh, Klay Thompson's next team, Paul George next team, LeBron's next team.
24:54
Those markets, um, I don't have much to say about them because those aren't markets I like to get involved in. The limits are low also, so it's not like you can go crazy on them.
25:03
You do have one though that you may suggest a play on though. Yeah, I mean, this... I, I don't even know if I have a play for, but I, the Warriors one's interesting with Klay just because that's...
25:11
Look, they're in a cap hell situation, but you know how much he's meant to the franchise. I, that's not one I'd go guessing on.
25:17
Paul George though, I, th- I mean, he's in current contract negotiations with this, w- uh, with the Clippers. It is, by all reports, it is not going well.
25:26
Um, I mean, the Clippers are not willing to offer him what they had offer- offered Kawhi. So he's got a player option for next season.
25:33
So yes, he could opt into that, be right back with the Clippers, um, no problem a- and, and that minus 270's cash in.
25:39
He declines that though and hits the open market like a lot of people expect, I mean, uh, there's so many teams on here that are live, but the Sixers have been linked to him for a long time now.
25:49
I mean, he's not a franchise player, right? He's a piece in the puzzle. Yeah, and he's 34 years old at this point. And he's 34 years old. What does he think he is, is the thing, right?
25:57
I, I mean, that's, uh, with a lot of these guys. Well, Klay is gonna- And, and Klay, right? That's part of the issue with Klay... Klay is gonna come down to complete ego. Yeah. Right.
26:04
It's like- I mean, that's why you saw the Magic next on there. Yeah. Right? 'Cause the Magic can give him a lot of money if he wants to go play in Orlando.
26:10
And he, and he could just sit out there and shoot and be a nice complimentary piece. Yeah. I mean, I was trying to recruit him as part of my new Pelicans team, but- Yes... they weren't even listed. That's right.
26:19
When, when are, when is the GM, uh, introductory conference? I, I don't know. I'm still waiting for that call. Okay. It's weird I haven't gotten it yet.
26:26
Jason Weingarten joins us from under a cloud of smoke in Southern California, uh, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line at Spreadapedia. What's happening, Jason?
26:34
Not much, just getting back into a swing of things after a couple weeks of vacation it seems like. So, uh, it's nice to be getting back to a, a routine all of a sudden. Where'd you go besides London for Crawley?
26:49
I was in Austin, uh, I was in Orange County. Just every, every week there was somewhere I had to go. It was all about wedding stuff mostly, but a lot of traveling, a lot of, lot of going places.
27:01
Austin, Texas, one of the gems of this nation, you would agree? Yeah, it's a nice place. If I was like 23, probably be a great place to move to if you're, you're a little younger.
27:10
But it's, it's happening over there right now. It's happening, that's for sure. Uh, you back into the baseball swing of things? You betting on anything today? I am. Uh, only one game surprisingly.
27:21
Looks like it's taking a little bit of money. I bet, uh, Cubs minus 127, Imanaga back on the mound. See 140 still available, that's good. I'd probably get some better numbers if you shop around.
27:33
Uh, other game had my attention was the Mets plus 101, but literally as I was looking at it, it, it moved to minus 103, and I said, "You know, I'm probably just gonna skip that game today."
27:43
But, uh, we'll see what happens. Here, a quick triv- trivia question because I have the, uh, Guardians bets for most win, uh, Guardians bet for most wins in May. Which club has the worst record in all of May?
27:55
The answer is, guess. The Dodgers? I don't know. The Mets. Well, the Mets? The Mets, the Mets. Oh. I was like, was it a trick question or something? I don't know. No, not, not a trick question at all.
28:03
The Mets, the worst record in all of May. Uh, boop-boop-boop-boop-boop, what is it exactly? It is, up to the moment, where are you? It is... I'll get there, Kelly. This is great radio. Don't worry about it. Uh, 7 and 18.
28:19
7 and 18. So the exact opposite of the Phillies and Yankees at 18 and 7 at the top. 7 and 18 with a minus 37 run differential. Good Lord.
28:28
Uh- Has the sweat, has the sweat for this, this month been anywhere close to the, the Guardians bet from the first month, or no? Well, yeah. I mean, now it is.
28:38
It, it's, uh, the, the first month, the March, April, as you know, came one out shy, and then we lost in the most heart-wrenching, dramatic fashion.
28:46
This one, the Guardians have as many wins as the Phillies and the Yankees. Uh, 18 and 7, 18 and 7 for the Phillies and Yankees. Guardians are 18 and 8. But the Yankees have one extra game here in the final three days.
28:58
So Guardians do not control their destiny. But yes, the sweat is on. Could be eliminated today, could also win it. You, you, you have absolutely got your money's worth on this two months in a row.
29:08
Bro, I'm glad you pointed out that. Uh, let me just say this. For people who bet baseball on a daily basis, right? The rollercoaster of that, the gambl- the bang for your gambling dollar.
29:20
Now, if you had picked other teams and you got, you know, beaten out by April 10th or May 10th, maybe a different story. But the two Guardians bets, man, what absolute bang for your gambling dollar.
29:31
What a, what a ride by this club. Um, I don't know how you feel about them in general. It's been one thing to bet them for most wins in March, April, and in May, but that's schedule based.
29:43
I don't know how you feel about them in terms of putting them in... 'Cause right now they have, what is it, one, one fewer win than the Phillies, or do they have the exact amount of wins?
29:51
I mean, they are, with the Yankees and Phillies, the best team in baseball collectively since the beginning of the season. You don't put them in that echelon, do you?
29:59
No, but you know, it's like before the season we talked about how Jose Ramirez just doesn't get any respect and, and I, just the Guardians don't get, get any respect.
30:07
It seems like they turn the roster over pretty frequently, and they have a bunch of no-name guys.
30:13
But, you know, organization wise, they are very good at identifying and developing talent and Yeah, it's, it's not gonna surprise me when we get a, uh, a, a wild card game with them again, and it's gonna be 0-0 in the ninth inning.
30:26
That's right. Just live betting the under- And here comes- Over and over. That's right. Here comes Clase. Uh, Phillies, by the way, 38 and 18, Guardians 37 and 18, Yankees 37 and 19.
30:37
That's how close it is at the top of baseball from the beginning of the season, just from a Major League standpoint. Uh, you brought up Jose Ramirez. I mentioned earlier, he's 25 to one still to win AL MVP.
30:50
He wasn't much longer than that before the season started. Obviously, we've gotten two months under our belt now.
30:56
Do you feel like based on events, and obviously Aaron Judge, Juan Soto are the favorites or the short shots in this, but do you feel like 25 to one on, on Ramirez is worth a bet right now?
31:08
I, I bet that before the season, and I wouldn't double down on it now, mainly because when you look at what Soto and Judge are doing, um, even if one gets injured, the other is gonna become the front runner.
31:21
If not, I, I still think Kyle Tucker is probably the guy. But the odds have kinda been cut on most of these guys so much, you know. Uh, this is my way of saying I, I'd be really shocked if it's not Soto or Judge.
31:34
Um, I really thought it was just Soto, but I mean, it's a Yankee. When you have a Yankee playing this well, how does, how do they not win? There's, there's a bias built in, I think, that, yeah.
31:44
Well, that's, so that's, that's what I'm trying to get at because we just described how Cleveland has, you know, again, there's much baseball to be played, but let's just say, right?
31:53
Let's just say Cleveland won 100 games and the Yankees won 100 games, and Ramirez's stats were the same exact stats, let's say, as a Juan Soto. Not exact, but you get it, in the same realm.
32:05
You're just saying the Yankee bias is such that, that Ramirez will never win it? One of the unfortunate things about betting on futures is that sometimes you can just do everything right- Yeah...
32:18
and you're totally correct, like, uh, Wenbaiana, who's a very good- Wenbaiana. Yep... you know, is a good example recently.
32:24
You did everything right, and you even have the voters coming out afterwards and saying- [laughs]... "I can't believe I voted for Rudy. I was wrong." It doesn't, doesn't change anything.
32:34
Um, sometimes you could be 100% right. You could have a guy like Jose Ramirez just crushing it, and at the end of the day, um, Juan Soto's still gonna win 'cause he's Juan Soto.
32:45
Like, we've been, we've been waiting for this w- version of Juan Soto for a couple years now, and we're finally getting it. Yep. Don't I know it, that you could be right and just not have the ticket come home.
32:55
So my Aaron Judge under 43 and a half home runs, uh, not looking so great, huh? Not so far. Okay, cool. Uh, Jason, anything- We'll, we'll see, we'll see. Jason, anything US Open for you this, uh, weekend?
33:04
W- women's US Open you're betting? Yeah, if you have access to DraftKings, they have Rose Zhang top 10. Um, I wanna say it was, like, plus money. It was, like, plus 140 or something. You get five to one on the top five.
33:16
Uh, both good bets. Uh, we'll see if anyone can beat Nelly Corda. Might be Rose. We'll see. I don't even know if you have to ask that question with Jason. It's always Rose Zhang. I, I wanted to, I wanted to- Yeah...
33:26
confirm 'cause I'm tailing. I'm tailing Jason. All right. All right. But I only bet top five and 10. I didn't bet to win. That's cool. I think those are just good, good numbers. I'm glad we clarified. Thank you, Jason.
33:36
Enjoy. Pleasure. Talk to you guys later. @SpreadAPedia for Jason. RBC Canadian Open next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
We are so close to crowning an NBA champ, and with the action heating up on the court, it's even hotter at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA. New to DraftKings? Well, listen up.
34:03
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34:12
Download the DraftKing Sportsbook app now and use code VSiN, that's V-S-I-N. The crown is yours. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin live from Bar Canada here at the Date.
34:22
Uh, before we get to the RBC, uh, Canadian, you wanted to, uh, take a look at the French Open futures that I made and see where they stand right now.
34:30
Obviously, uh, we have a, uh, match right now, Osaka and Swiatek in round number two. I've got Iga every which way. Um, to win the tournament I've got her parlayed with, uh, Carlitos, Novak, Casper Ruud.
34:44
None of that has changed. Uh, I do have Jannik, excuse me, Jannik, Jan-Lennard Struff to win the second quarter, quarter number two, at 14 to one, and, uh, so far so good from Jan-Lennard Struff as well.
34:59
So all looking good thus far, but we're early. Yeah, we're early. Oh, and by the way, just a French Open update, all of the outside court matches have been canceled today. Mm. So only
35:09
the two stadium courts in play for the rest of the day. Any th- So we're gonna get backed up here.
35:14
Anything you've seen first, uh, uh, these first, uh, days of the tournament that would affect any bets, uh, on the, on the current futures board? On the current futures board? Yeah. No. No, nothing so far.
35:26
I mean, again, there hasn't really been any headline yet. The only, I mean, the biggest favorite to go down, I believe, on either side is Maria Sakkari.
35:35
Um- I still haven't made my Djokovic bet yet, but it keeps getting longer. The number keeps getting longer, Gil. Why, I'm not running.
35:41
Well, 'cause he, he wobbled a little in his first round match before he righted the ship. So I, I don't, I think there is a lot of doubt about Djokovic right now. And again, he is with Casper Ruud, uh, in their quarter.
35:53
So to me, again, Casper Ruud and Djokovic are headed to a quarterfinal match, I believe. And so, yeah, so it doesn't surprise me that it's a little longer.
36:02
By the way, I should let people know that, uh, Kelly shared with me that he has a bets to make list. This is what Matt Brown found so amusing. [laughs] Yeah. So you have a bets to make list.
36:11
Oh, he would be killing me right now 'cause it's a little, it's way longer than it should be. So you still haven't bet Djokovic to win the French Open? I still haven't bet.
36:17
I'm, I'm really, like, th- these first couple rounds of the f- of, of these t- of these Grand Slams, right? Yeah. When you're talking about the big favorites- Yeah... they win, the number barely moves.
36:26
It barely moves 'cause they're, like, minus- Yeah, yeah... 5,000 or whatever they are. Uh, you still have two College World Series baseball bets to make Florida State, Florida State and Oklahoma State.
36:33
I'm, I'm gonna tailback Chris about Oklahoma State. Yeah. I have to- I have the Florida State one, 35 to one When do the regionals start? Today? This weekend. Tomorrow? This weekend. Friday, I believe.
36:41
That's what I was... I just gotta make sure I get 'em in before that. I believe Friday. Yeah. Yeah. Don't hold me to that, but I think so. We got Ben Wilson on tomorrow to talk about it. Oh, do we? Yeah.
36:48
Are we getting Lindeman on? Is he coming on? I, I, I got, I gotta follow up with him. Yes. We're- Okay... ran into our good friend, Matt Lindeman last night. I ran into Matt Lindeman as well. Yeah. Yeah. Okay.
36:55
Uh, c- a lot of College World Series love, so- Uh, Steelers win total under, still gonna bet that. [laughs] Bro, we only got... But you still got time on that. Yeah.
37:05
This, this is the ultimate example, though, of like the things we complain about betting in Nevada, right? Yes. Still, okay, so Gil, like, they, uh, my- I still have to go do it...
37:14
my Tuesday golf handicapping process, right? Yeah.
37:16
For as long as it takes me to actually handicap a golf tournament, then it's tack on an hour and a half to two hours for me to go through every app in town- Totally agree...
37:26
to price shop every bet that I need to make, right? Totally agree. So sorry, but sometimes these, uh- I'm sorry...
37:32
[laughs] I get a little exhausted of looking around every app to make every, uh, to price shop every one of these bets. Kelly's getting very upset.
37:38
I'm getting upset that we, uh- No, I, I hear you because- I do have a source, by the way. I'm just gonna anger you a minute. Oh, yeah... I have a source. Oh, God. Okay, Steven A., what?
37:46
That told me, that told me the other day, just me- Yeah... not, not us- Yeah... that, uh, there is a desktop, uh, version of a, of a sportsbook being worked on in this town. Oh, I was here for that. Yeah, yeah.
37:58
Well, I was- I was here for that... trying to leave... just you. No, I... Are we allowed to say that out loud? I don't think so.
38:02
[laughs] Oh, yeah, but one of the shops here, I know for those of you listening outside of the state of Nevada, which is most of you, we could have a desktop/laptop ability to bet sports. Oh, pretty excited about it.
38:15
It's a big deal. Pretty excited about it. Oh.
38:17
[laughs] I, I know people at b- at home rolling their eyes at me, but, like, you just get to pull up DraftKings and hit Command + F to go find whatever you want in whatever market. It takes you two seconds.
38:26
Just remember, Gil, you're our guest here. All right. RBC Canadian Open, what you got? Yeah, you got, uh, how about... Do, do you like, uh, Rory McIlroy at Scottie Scheffler prices?
38:36
'Cause that's what you're getting this week in Canada. [laughs] Thank you. This is, uh, right down the odds board, Rory +360, Tommy Fleetwood 16/1. Uh, had a nice second place finish on him last year at this tournament.
38:48
Sepp Straka 18/1, Corey Conners 22/1, Alex Noren 22/1, Shane Lowry, Sam Burns, Cameron Young 25/1, everybody else 30/1 or longer. They, uh, this year, headed to Hamilton Golf and Country Club for this event.
39:03
You have full field event. There's 156 players, top 65 and ties.
39:07
Shorter course, very similar if y- I mean, if you're handicapping golf week in, week out, actually pretty similar skill sets what you were looking at last week. Accuracy off the tee, this is not a super long course.
39:17
Uh, accuracy off the tee a premium here. The rough is very grown out, three and a half inches, uh, as you can see on the screen. Not a lot of water that you're gonna have to, uh, uh, play with here.
39:26
Greens, not, not small, not huge, but they have, they do have some, uh, they renovated this course from when, uh, when they played here in 2019, so the runoff areas, chipping might be interesting this week.
39:37
There's a lot of these short grass runoff areas from the greens that we didn't really get to see a lot of in 2019 when Rory crushed this course.
39:45
That is, I'm making fun of the odds, but he did absolutely crush here in 2019. Plus 360 on Rory. Yeah, exactly. Wow. So I, you know me, Gil, I'm not looking towards, uh, Rory's way.
39:55
Just a couple other stats really quick to throw out. This was, when they were here five years ago, absolute putting contest.
40:00
Every single one of the top 17, uh, finishers was positive that week in strokes gained putting, so it's really, you're looking for accuracy off the tee, you're looking for good approach players, and you're looking for a hot putter, which always makes tournaments a little bit harder for, uh, for me to handicap when I gotta factor in putting as much as that and I can't just ignore it.
40:18
So lighter card for me this week, only one outright. Uh, Sepp Straka I played at 20/1. Like him in a, a, this is a, uh, you know, not a great field. So you're getting one of the more quality players. It's still at 20/1.
40:30
That does have a win in, he won in Napa in the fall, has a couple second place finishes. He's putting together some good golf. Little wonky off the tee recently.
40:38
He's got me a little bit concerned, uh, but overall game should fit really well here. Like him outright in a top 20 play. Aaron Rai did the same thing last week. Did not get home with the top 10 play last week on him.
40:49
I don't believe this guy's gonna win. Everything statistically is telling me he should be right up there. I'm gonna aim high. I'm gonna play top 10.
40:56
If you wanna go top five, top 10 on him, I think that's the way to play him, 'cause he could easily miss the cut too. Wouldn't surprise me.
41:02
[laughs] I'm laughing 'cause I already see who's coming up in your top 20s in matchups. Yeah, yeah, there you go. Uh, top 20. Hey, how about this one, Gil? Yeah.
41:09
I don't know how many times I played Tommy Fleetwood the past couple years. Pretty sure this is the first time this season I've made a Tommy Fleetwood bet. Yeah, I think so. So I'm on him.
41:16
He, uh, burned me last year at this event, finishing, uh, in what? Second? Yeah, missed the playoff. Um, top 20 minus 118. Fleetwood coming on here.
41:24
The irons looking, looking back in shape, and he's kind of flown under the radar this season. T26 at the PGA, T13 at Wells Fargo, um, T3 at the Masters, T7 at Valero, but nobody's really talking about him.
41:36
So I like to play in the top 20 market on him. Straka I already mentioned. Noren, been one of the most consistent golfers on tour this year. He has, he's teed it up 12 times this year, Gil. Hasn't missed a cut.
41:49
Alex Noren at 42 years old hasn't missed a cut, has finished T26 or better in 10 of the 12 events that he's played in. So- Wow... he's been a guy I've bet, you know, bet at top 20s in matchups.
42:01
I'm going right back to it. He's one of my highest rated golfers this week. Another guy who doesn't win, so I'm not bet, wasting an outright bet on him, but top 20 at plus money, love that.
42:09
And then, yes, Gil, there it is. Cashmere Keith, I still can't quit. [laughs] Still can- Hey, the top 40 got home last week. Why you calling him Cashmere Keith? That's his nickname. Really? Yeah, yeah. Oh, wow.
42:18
Yeah, uh- How'd he get that? I have no idea. Okay. Absolutely no idea. But, uh, top 40 I played on him last week. Thank God I did that instead of a top 20, because the top 40 got home, top 20 would not have.
42:29
Going top 20, though, a little bit weaker field. Still, this is, I just need the putter. I need the putter to not be absolutely terrible.
42:35
This guy would be so much better than he's be- than he's finished this year on tour. You gotta f- a couple things. You gotta figure out why he's called Cashmere Keith, right?
42:42
'Cause, like, Danielle- I'm sure there's a reason... Frinkie-Collins is called Danimal. You know why? 'Cause she's half Danielle, half animal Um, so you just gotta get to the bottom of that kind of stuff.
42:49
But Keith Mitchell comes up on your model every week- Yes... in all kinds of things. And I'm just curious, like, what is the tennis equivalent for, like, a Keith Mitchell?
42:58
Is that a Sakkari, where the numbers are good, but, like, she'll never win anything?
43:04
Um, so the, the one that, yeah, I mean, look, the numbers have been incredible, and just even where you look at finishing wise, where he's at in a lot of the strokes gained metrics are so much higher from where he's even finishing at.
43:14
So it is, I'm trying to get out in front of it still. I still feel like the be- the better finishes for him are still to come. Yeah.
43:21
So i- it's, you know, it's definitely one of those that I'm sticking to what, yes, my models are spitting out. I would say him and Aaron Rai are good examples. Ne- never winning, winning anything big, I should say.
43:31
You can win- Correct, yeah... you can win at something else. But, you know, then you, you, you dial back into, you know, even for the difference from last week to this week, right?
43:37
Even this week, much lighter field this week than even last week. Yes. Right? And, and no Scottie Scheffler, obviously, but a couple other big names at the top that just aren't around. Any US Open bets yet?
43:48
Um, no, no US Open bets. Uh, women's US Open, I'm gonna tail Jason. I'ma, I think Rose Zhang or Rose at top five, top 10. Rose Zhang. All right, I might join you on that.
43:56
Um, all right, Iga taking care of business early, up a break on Naomi Osaka, 3-1. Again, they're only playing a couple, uh, matches at a time now at the French Open.
44:04
The entire schedule's gonna get pushed back till tomorrow. Um, so let's go Iga. Let's keep taking care of business. Let's go Guardians. Let's go Giants. Let's go Angels. Let's get the Guardians home for May. Hey.
44:18
Again, we could be eliminated as well. I was checking scores last night. Oh. I always check the scores. I was going ballistic. I was going crazy. Good luck with all your bets. GoJoe and Golick next on the radio side.
44:28
Best Bets next on the picture side. It's VSiN, the sports betting network.
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