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May 29, 2026
A Numbers Game | May 29, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 29, 2026 | Hour 2
00:00
45:22
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat rock music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:17
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM Channel 158. Gil Alexander. My little buddy, Kelly Bedell- Hey...
0:27
alongside, uh, Chris Fallica standing by, Steve Fezzik in the hole, Stormy on deck. That's the, that's the lineup. That's right. Do we have a, uh, we have a Are We Sure coming up as well? We do. Ho-ho. Estamos seguros.
0:41
Estamos seguros. Question mark. Uh, Aaron Rodgers showing up like that to camp today apparently. Oh, he shaved his head. Shaved head. Wow.
0:47
I see, I don't know if that tattoo's always been there, but there's a tattoo on the inside of his bicep now. Wow. He doesn't look a day younger than 43.
0:54
[laughs] Um, real quick on the Cubs, most of you missed it, I am, I have bet the Cubs at 12 to one. You still get it at nine to one.
1:02
By the way, DraftKings hasn't put it up yet, so you may be able to get a number as good or better than mine once they put up their numbers, which they should be doing here in the next 24 to 48 hours, are DraftKings for most wins in the month of June, if history is any indication.
1:16
But here again is the Cubs' schedule. Three versus the Athletics, three versus the Giants, three at Colorado, three at the Giants, three versus Colorado to start the month.
1:26
Four more at the Mets, depending on how you feel about the Mets, a little later on. Um, but I didn't really... I d- I didn't, I wasn't as thorough. Kate Horton's not coming back. UCL. He's out for the year.
1:36
But Edward Cabrera with his blister expected to come back June 5th at the earliest, starting, starting rotation. Matthew Boyd expected to come back June the 9th.
1:46
And the offensive stats that I was referring to, 11.6% walk rate for the Cubbies. That's the best in baseball offensively. They have a bottom third K rate. They're tied for third in OBP at 333.
1:57
Weighted on base is seventh in baseball at 323. Tied for seventh in weighted runs created plus at 107. As I mentioned, love their defense.
2:07
And the, the knock on the Cubs, again, the Cubs have had this weird season so far. Kelly, it's not even June. They've had two 10-game winning streaks and one 10-game losing streak already. Oof.
2:19
They've won 20 of 23, and they've had a 10-game losing streak. It's been a really roller coaster first couple months for the Chicago Cubs, and the knock would be, "Hey, you know, I hear what you're saying, Gil, but, uh,
2:29
Suzuki K's 40% of the time. Bregman barely slugs. Nico Hoerner's cooled off. PCA's hot and cold. Dansby Swanson 170 with runners in scoring position." Or, well, Swanson is batting 170.
2:44
Runners in scoring position as a whole has been bad. And of the, uh, nine players in their batting lineup, o- only three had OPS marks of sub five, of sub-700 though for me.
2:56
Alex Bregman, Dansby Swanson, and Peter, and Pete Crow-Armstrong.
2:58
What I'm, what I'm getting at is while the offense has, while you can put the offense through a lens of they've kind of floundered in certain ways, I don't think that that is a sus- I don't think that that's them sustainably.
3:10
I think the offense will bounce back. The, the underlying numbers, as I just mentioned, are solid. The schedule is cake. Cubbies, most wins June. What could go wrong? I'll tell you what could go wrong.
3:21
They could have a two and six record in one run games like the Mariners did this month. That's what could go wrong. Ah, yeah. Lose, lose 10 in a row again. [laughs] They could do that. That would be bad.
3:28
They, you know what? They could lose all their games, Kelly. [laughs] That could be bad, too. I do the Todd thing. Or they could lose 17 of them. That would be bad also. Or 19. Yeah, man. Chris Fallica joins us now.
3:37
He's on Fox Sports. @ChrisFallica on Twitter. The Bear Bets podcast empire is his, and he joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Good morning, Christopher. How are you? Um, I'm, I'm okay.
3:49
Just getting, uh... Enjoying the show so far. Enjoyed Mr. Carr's, uh, soccer preview as well, and as always, looking forward to, uh, what follows me at noon. What f- what follows you at noon would be Steve Fezzik.
4:02
[laughs] It's, it's- Fezzik Fridays. We'll, we'll see if Steve doesn't take any shots back at Todd Wishnow and a little guest-on-guest violence. I'm sure that won't happen. That happened the other day.
4:10
Completely uncalled for by Todd- Wow... a couple of days ago, so- Wow... hopefully, uh, hopefully Fezz has an opportunity here to respond. I'm not sure Fezz has slept either.
4:20
Did, did you note the times on when we got text messages? Oh, dude, we got texted like 3:00 something in the... Yeah. Yeah, and then like at 6:00 again. I don't know about that kid. I don't know about that kid at all.
4:29
We, can we start with a WNBA play? You f- this is, this is, again, rando from Chris, but we cover all the sports- Yeah... especially with Chris on.
4:36
Uh, but you, you bet some WNBA, and tonight I see you have, oh, you have a season long on the WNBA. Yeah. What do you have? Yeah. But, uh, prior to the season, uh, we gave out, I believe on your show- Yes...
4:48
uh, definitely on Bear Bets. So we gave out the Chicago Sky over 18 and a half wins. Mm-hmm. Um, very high on them.
4:54
And they got off to a great start, but they recently lost, uh, Rickea Jackson, one of their, uh, better, pr- not one of their, their best front court player, a- and that's a big problem for them, and they have not looked the same since.
5:08
You can still find an, uh, 19 and a half there. So you can go under 19 and a half. Maybe we get absolutely lucky and we thread the needle and it lands on 19.
5:17
But, uh, w- without Jackson being out for the year with a torn ACL, uh, it's gonna be hard for the Sky to have the type of season that it looked like, uh, they, they were aiming towards and shooting towards.
5:27
So I, uh, I, I got off my over 18 and a half with an under 19 and a half bet. Yeah.
5:31
You did, uh, you did say it on the show, because I remember you had a Sky over and you had a Dream under, and we referred to it as your- Mm-hmm... anti-Angel Reese place. [laughs] Is I believe how we, uh, referred to it.
5:39
By the way, did you see that one tw- I, I forget who the, uh, the account was yesterday who they rated, uh, like every, like starter in the league, and I think Angel Reese was like 178 out of- Yes... 190 starters- Yes...
5:51
in terms of efficiency. Yes. Oof. I did see that. 178th. Yeah, that's not great. I'm sure there were very sane responses out there- Right. [laughs] I'm sure... on social media.
6:01
I'm sure the reactions were all very objective. Everybody handled it well. Yes, appropriately. Uh, Gerrit Cole is back pitching for the Yankees, and you have fired. Yeah. What do you got?
6:11
I, I have fired, I'm kind of, uh, adopting this and taking this from, uh, uh, Will Hill, who, who kind of originated this in the, uh, uh, the group text dur- during the week.
6:21
But, uh, you can get, find him at 150 to 1 on DraftKings. And I know I, I just played this about an hour ago.
6:28
Uh, they had some, like, 25% MLB boost out there as well on, like, a pre-game bet and a p- And so I was actually able to get a guy, Gerrit Cole, of 188 to 1, uh, to, to win the American League Cy Young and look, I, I know people may say he missed a couple months of the season or about two months of the season.
6:46
Um, how, how can he win? But there's a lot of runway left, uh, i- in the season. I mean, the, you look at, you're probably gonna project, if all goes well, to get, what, 20, 21, 22 starts, uh, maybe the rest of the year.
6:59
Missed all of last year. Last time we saw him pitch a complete season in 2023, uh, he won the Cy Young, uh, 222 strikeouts, a, an ERA of about two and a half, a WHIP below one.
7:12
He's been unbelievable since he's come back. 12 and two-thirds shutout innings. Uh, he looks like the pitcher that we saw pre-injury, uh, w- when he was healthy.
7:22
Uh, look, w- uh, I've talked about, I have Cam Schlittler, not at the, uh, the Matt Humans number, but I do have him at, like, 30, 35 to 1 in pocket.
7:30
So with that, it, it feels like this is the market where you can still make a bet depending on how you feel about the Schlittlers, the Ceases, the de Groms of the world.
7:41
Uh, this could be a situation like we had in the NL a couple of years ago when, when base winner gave out Robbie Ray, who was, like, 100 to 1- Yes... late in the year. I, I, look, I, did Will, Will Cole win?
7:51
Probably not, but at this price, I certainly wanna take a chance. I'm glad you brought that up, but for, for those who wonder about such things, uh, it's too late.
7:59
Uh, remember Chris Sale, we thought one year he was the shoo-in to win Cy Young until he wasn't, late in the season, right? Almost, almost August. You point out the, the base winner one.
8:10
Base winner was on here July 31st, the year that Robbie Ray ended up winning the Cy Young. And 100 to 1, he said, Robbie Ray, Cy Young, and it cashed, and it just shows you the, the baseball season is interminable.
8:23
It is so long, and what feels like a lot of season, we're barely past the quarter mark of this season. So Gerrit Cole, 150 to 1 to win the American League Cy Young Award.
8:34
By the way, if you had a vote for NL right now, who would you vote for? Well, I mean, I guess it's gotta be, like, prisoner of the moment, just with what Sanchez is doing.
8:43
What, 44 straight scoreless innings, and he's striking out a, uh, a million guys. It would probably be him, but, uh, that'll probably... Ask me again in 10 days- Yeah...
8:53
and I'll probably give you a different answer if, uh, if Otani goes out and does what he did again, or M- or Miz does what he... That's g- It's gonna be an unbelievably interesting, uh,
9:03
AL Cy Young race, 'cause there's so many guys. You, you, you could say four or five different guys, and you could be right. You can, you could say, "Okay, I, I'll buy that." I think that's as good as answer as any.
9:14
It feels like it's on a start-by-start basis right now at this point. Everybody just, uh, jockeying for position.
9:19
Uh, before we get to your World Cup plays, and you got a bunch of them, l- Kelly and I were just sort of, we were talking about this, and someone else was asking. Uh, you're, you're closer to soccer than we are.
9:30
We're gonna get in this mode, right? It starts in 13 days. You know how the United States, uh, as a, as a nation becomes, we all rally around this team. We all become soccer [laughs] experts.
9:40
[laughs] Everybody has, has bought into it. "Oh, how is this, you know, how, how can this guy be doing this?"
9:46
I'm curious from your perspective, do we have a chance to go, forget winning it, to go further than we've ever gone before- No... or is this just gonna result in a... No, there it is. I can't even finish the sentence.
9:59
No. No, we don't. No. Like, like, like, like, quarterfinal, like, is, is prob- where, like, the furthest we've gone, a- and I don't even think we'll, we'll get there.
10:10
There's a really good chance that the US will wind up, uh, finishing third in its group. I mean, well, actually, it's not really good. There, there's a chance that they will. I, I'm not sure if they will win the group.
10:19
Uh, I mean, they will advance, and they will get to the knockout round, and just because of 32 teams being in the knockout round now, uh, it feels like round of 16, winning one knockout round game is about the max right now, uh, for this team, which it has not looked good.
10:37
And Paul hit on the, the friendlies that are coming up. Uh, a friendly against Senegal is a, is a really good, uh,
10:44
test experiment to, to find out what we have, because Senegal has to have some, some world cast- class players, a team that won, um, the A- AFCON tournament, um, before they got it taken away from by the whole African soccer politics.
10:58
We don't need to get into that, but, uh, yeah, I, I think round of 16 is probably ceiling, uh, for this US team.
11:04
What would they consider, if you gave them truth serum, what would they consider a, what would constitute a good showing? I think they, in their hearts of hearts, feel like quarterfinals is, is realistic.
11:20
I think that would pre- If you gave them truth serum, I, I think they would say that. Because I think, look, you're still the players on that team. You're still the coaches on that team.
11:27
You believe you can go out and win. You can believe you can win your group and, and get a favorable path, and then you get some, uh, maybe you get a home whistle.
11:35
You get a penalty at home that sends you to the spot, and you, you advance, and you, you win another round that maybe you shouldn't have.
11:41
But they still feel like they can go out and compete and win every game, and, uh, because it's at home, they can go out and, uh, exceed expectations.
11:46
So I honestly think they think that quarterfinal is a, uh, realistic goal. I don't know. Okay. All right. That put things in perspective a little bit. Yeah.
11:54
Uh, Chris Fallica's soccer picks, more World Cup plays from him next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners.
12:04
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12:15
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12:31
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13:08
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13:17
Jim Campbell, after l- after listening to the World Cup segment with Paul, specifically on his handicap of Scotland finishing last in their group, "There's an option on DraftKings to lose all games in the group, where Scotland is 16 to one."
13:30
Ooh. "Seems like g- seems like good value," he says. I agree. Ooh, that's a Kelly bet right there. Yeah, that, that was one I was already gonna tail on- Mm-hmm...
13:37
tail Paul on, but I think that's worth, that's worth adding. Doug Tuttle, "I'm seeing 25 to one on the Astros at Caesars. For whatever reason, they seem to get hot in June and have a pretty easy schedule."
13:46
Yeah, they were, they were on my list, and we won on Houston. We cashed in June two years ago on Houston, both at 17 to one and 25 to one. Michael Salvina. Michael Salvino, pardon me. "I gotta go Spurs money line."
13:59
Me too, Michael. "Got to," he says, "Good luck to everyone." I don't think I wanna bet it, but I think that's gonna happen. I think they're gonna win. Joseph Freda, "Question for Fezzik today,
14:08
are the New York Knicks this year's Honky Tonk Man team?" Okay, well, we'll have to ask Fezzik about that. Uh, Chance Copperpot, "As a Thunder hater, I can fully agree Presti's the best GM in sports.
14:18
He came out of the Spurs organization under Pop, and RC Buford. Presti found Tony Parker and became the Supersonics GM at 29 years of age." Mm-hmm. "John Schneider is the second-best GM."
14:28
I once, uh, hopped on a call with RC Buford. You know who set that up once? Who? Jimmy Vaccaro. Really? Back in the early South Point days of VSiN, yeah. RC Buford, yeah. I need to swing by the South Point. Yes.
14:39
I haven't been over there in a while. I saw a cracked hot dog video yesterday, and I was like...
14:42
[laughs] In the back, I was talking about how working in local news, you'll never eat more c- more cake in your life, 'cause someone's got a birthday or something every week that you're celebrating.
14:52
And then I, I think I ate more hot dogs in a two-year span or something at the South Point- And-... than I ever have in my life. And good for you, by the way. Very good for me. Oh, yeah. Very good for me. Good for you.
15:01
Uh, let's give Chris Fallica a crack at this, uh, question that was asked by Icegoon earlier. Chris Fallica joins us once again courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
15:08
You can follow Chris on Twitter, by the way, Chris Fallica. That's clever. F-A-L-L-I-C-A. And check out the latest Bear Bets pod, like I did this morning. World Cup preview. Yes. Let's go.
15:18
I'm trying to get Chris and Paul to do a World Cup, uh, Beating the Book, but the man's busy. We'll see if it happens or not. Here's the question once again. Well, I'm, I am busy.
15:25
I'm trying to find the appropriate time for you and Paul, being that Paul has travel issues on Thursday, I have a travel issue on Wednesday, and I have my own little Bear Bets show that I need to record on Tuesday.
15:36
So I'm trying to find the appropriate time where I can accommodate you- Yeah, you...
15:41
a- a- and make this happen, because I wanna make it happen from the, the 2010 FIFA World Cup, uh, South Africa, uh, research, uh, triumvirate here.
15:50
The, the, the, the dream team of Paul and I down there, going to Montecasino with the vuvuzelas there. Uh- [laughs] I'm so jealous... a bunch of black cabs in the middle of the night that break down on the road.
16:00
We can get into it on the... I'm, I'm making Kelly jealous of, uh, he- he's wanting to be there in South Africa at the, uh- Yes...
16:06
at the World Cup like he was saying a couple- Yeah, well, I wanted to be your AD or something for that. A couple of years ago. Well, I am sorry, but- Which was great... but you didn't have to chastise me.
16:13
Do you ever see the Justin Timberlake where he said that when he got punked? [laughs] He's like, "Hey, guy- Oh, man... you didn't have to chastise me." Uh, okay, here's the question from Icegoon, Chris.
16:20
"I see that this season the Premier League sent a record nine teams to next year's European competitions. Villa and Palace already won both Europa Leagues this season.
16:27
Is this incredible strength of the league something to push us to Arsenal tomorrow?" And you have a college football analogy for us on this. Yeah, it, it, it's not for me.
16:36
I, I like to, I'll make a try to, 'cause you said there are a lot of Americans who aren't familiar with all of the international leagues and such. I, I kind of, uh, make the Premier League as like the SEC.
16:48
It is the deepest, it is the strongest from one to whatever. And Paul had mentioned Palace, uh, where they finished and wind up winning the, uh, uh, the, the conference league there.
16:59
However, you've got these, like the Big Ten has three teams at the top that were better than anybody in the SEC. Uh, the, the ACC had a team at the top. Miami was better than anyone in the ACC.
17:10
The Big 12 had a really good team in the top with Texas Tech. So that's kind of how I feel that it is with like, uh, in the Bundesliga, you got Bayern Munich, a- and then in, uh, uh,
17:21
in, in, uh, in France, you've, you've got PSG. PSG, I think is, is the best team in the world. I like them to, to lift the trophy.
17:28
I think they have so many different, uh, answers offensively that they can, they can u- use and score. And it's weird. There's been ki- I'm, I'm tight with a couple of Arsenal friends of mine.
17:39
There's this weird vibe that they have about, like, the Champions League is kind of like this free-for-all now- Mm-hmm... being that they did win the Prem. So I, I don't know mentally where they, where they...
17:50
May, may, maybe it's just a fan thing and not a team thing, but, but it seems like Ar- Arsenal might, like, be just kind of happy they won the Prem and kind of whatever happens tomorrow happens.
18:01
But, but I like PSG to lift the trophy.
18:03
Here are the, uh, World Cup bets that Chris has made on the show prior to this appearance, and I will ask him here which does he like the best and which does he already regret terribly.
18:13
Uh, "Jeremy Doku to win the Golden Boot 80 to 1. Belgium to reach the quarters," Doku's side, "at 2 to 1. Spain to reach the quarters -145. Portugal to reach the quarters +125.
18:23
Morocco," remember that one, he got frisky with Morocco, "to win Group C." Plus 325, and then the tandem bet of Spain and France both to reach the final. They're on the same side of the bracket there. That's what it was.
18:34
Okay. Spain's plus 220. Yeah. France is plus 300. And then, uh, apparently there's no logo for Group E. They don't have logos per group. [laughs] So it's highest scoring group at six to one.
18:44
Which of these do you feel the best about, and which of them are you like, "Oh, I don't know. I, I can't believe I did this"? Portugal to reach the quarter- Yeah... is the one I feel best about. Ooh.
18:51
Because I do think, uh, despite, despite the group that they're in, the, the challenge that they could have, uh, in winning that group, you win that group, you get a dream run in the r- in the round of 32 and the round of 16 to get to the quarter-finals.
19:05
So that is the one, uh, that, that I do feel the best about. Okay. And y- you're feeling good about all of them. None of, none of them are like... Y- you're not- Uh, y- yeah. Okay.
19:13
I, I, I am feeling good, uh, good about, uh, good about all of them. I, I know, look, the, the Belgium play is a, is a price play. I mean, Mar- look, Morocco waiting, there actually was a five to one out there.
19:23
I mean, that's a, that, that's a handicap that I, I made, and maybe Morocco can get a point against Brazil on the first match and, uh, go out there a- and win that group.
19:32
But, uh, yeah, I mean, obviously do I expect Jeremy Doku to, to win the Golden Boot? No. But at eight to one, and I kind of m- made the path and the argument for, for, uh, Belgium. So yeah, I feel pretty good about that.
19:42
All right. Well, it isn't for another 13 days. Would you like to add some bets to this? What do you got? Oh, we're gonna add more bets today. We're gonna add more, more bets next week.
19:50
Um, uh, r- relating to Group E, uh, I'm gonna take a little stab with it, um, Ivory Coast to, to win Group E. It's seven to one. I know Paul had made a, a case for Ecuador, uh, in that group as well. So I'm gonna...
20:03
I, I think the Elephants are low-key lo- uh, loaded here. Uh, they have a bunch of young talent with, with Diallo, Yaya Touré, uh, Evan Guessan, uh, Franck Kessié.
20:14
Uh, they, they've got really young, talented players, and a couple of veterans in there, uh, like Kessié and some of the guys on, on defense that can really mold this team. And look, Germany is a side where
20:27
they have had flop after flop lately on the international level. Now, I know there's a new manager.
20:33
I know it's a n- a, a new team, that they've kind of blended in some younger guys like Goretzka and Musiala, and they got to the quarters, uh, in, in Euros a couple of years ago when they hosted.
20:42
But look, again, we talked about he- Toronto, Canada, i- in, in July, it, it could, could be very warm, and that's something that I think, uh, could favor some of these South American, uh, African, uh, sides as well that are used to playing in some of these extreme temperatures.
20:58
So, look, I, I think, uh, Ivory Coast is live. I think Paul has a great bet handicap for Ecuador as well.
21:06
You win the group here, you get a third place side in the round of 32, and then you'll likely get N- or likely get Norway if you finish second.
21:13
So I think if Ivory, if Ivory Coast can either win the group or get second in the group and then get Norway on the other side of the bracket, like you've got a chance to advance.
21:22
And while a team like Morocco is better than, than the Ivory Coast, they get a much more difficult draw, where they'll probably gonna have to play the Dutch in their first knockout round match, and that is a much di- more difficult match up.
21:36
So I, I think there's a little bit of value on Ivory Coast here to, uh, ad- advance the furthest of any, uh, AFCON team. Okay. Uh, seven to one for them to win Group E. Six to one for them to be the top AFCON team.
21:46
And then I love when you make these bets 'cause this requires a little, uh, bracket analysis here. England, round of elimination, quarter finals, plus 375. What's your thinking there?
21:57
Uh, yeah, we, we hit on it a little bit last week, and again, this is kind of a weather, uh, induced play, climate induced play, where England, if they win their group, Mexico, if they win their group, you're gonna get a round of 16 game at Azteca in Mexico City, England-Mexico, which would be just brutal heat at, uh, at that elevation.
22:19
However, it isn't a lock that Mexico win their group. This is not a great Mexico team. But if they were to win the group and get there, they'd have a good chance.
22:28
And you can kind of, you can kind of play Mexico there to, to beat England, to kind of hedge your bet here.
22:32
But if England were to advance there, regardless of who they play, their quarterfinal match would be likely against Brazil in Miami. And you talk about another heat, humidity, hostile environment.
22:45
The number of Brazil fans that will be there in Miami will be, will be through the roof. So I can't see England getting past the quarterfinals, so I'm gonna bet them to, to lose in the quarter.
22:56
And then if they wind up playing Mexico in the, uh, in the round of 16 at Azteca, I could always put a little bit on Mexico there to kind of go against the, uh, create a little, uh, self-created arb there that they lose one of the next two games.
23:07
And you will be prominent in World Cup coverage this summer, right? Front and center. I, I, I know I will be doing my podcast, and I know I'll have plenty of coverage on foxsports.com. Other than that, I don't know. Ooh.
23:18
We'll leave it at that. Well- Tune in and find out... wow, okay. Thank you, Chris. [laughs] Appreciate it very much. Thanks, guys. Have a great weekend. You too. Are we sure?
23:26
Next on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game live at Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
23:41
Rafa Nadal through to the round of 16 on the men's side. Nadal. Five set victory over his, uh, over, over Alex Mikkelsen of the United States. He had to come back from two sets down to one. Rafa Nadal, the next big thing
23:57
supposedly, right? I think I'm on board with that, but he is just a beast. By the way, the, uh, the other next best thing in tennis. Uh, Todd Wright asked me a question. Todd Wright, by the way, texted me the other day.
24:08
Todd Wright, who, uh, he was, was always a regular on this f- show for many, many years, the greatest sports talk radio host there, there ever was in my opinion, All Night with Todd Wright back in the day.
24:17
He texted me, he goes, "One, I'm about to pop the champagne that a Canadian team is not gonna win the Stanley Cup finals again." [laughs] Does he, like, literally pop champagne every year this happens? A la '72 Dolphins.
24:26
Jeez, man. And, uh, and the other thing he said, he goes, he, he asked me Who, now that Sinner is out of this tournament, who wins this that will... He, he, his, his comment was, "What winner would only be a one-timer?"
24:41
In other words, if they win this French Open, they'll never win another Slam. Mm-hmm. And so my answer was, well, obviously, if it's Novak, Novak will have won his 25th.
24:49
And the only other two players that I believe would win multiple Slams if they win this one are Rafa Nadal and Joao Fonseca. Joao Fonseca getting rolled by Novak Djokovic right now. Up a set is Djokovic.
25:02
He has got it on his racket now to go up two sets to none. Um, but everybody else besides those three, Djokovic, who's won 24, Nadal and Fonseca, who are the next best things coming up,
25:15
I think it's probably one and done. Yeah. Oh, even depending on how the question was, was worded, Novak might even be tough, right? Of how, who's gonna win more Grand Slams going forward?
25:24
Like, I mean, this, he's just running out of time. Oh, I, yeah, moving forward, yes. Yeah, after winning this one, right? But I mean, I, I think he meant career-wise. Right, right. Yeah. Yeah. Career-wise.
25:32
I think if Sascha Zverev wins, it's gonna be his only one. I think if it's Casper Ruud, it's gonna be his only one, and so on and so forth. Uh, we got tweets at Beating The Book, just want to read a couple here.
25:39
Cheap prop bets. "So you know that 16 to one bet on Scotland, uh, to not win a single game in the World Cup? It got the DraftKings account limited," he said, "and it was pizza money. A medium, no extra toppings pizza."
25:53
Did everybody bet it at the same time? Is that what happened? [laughs] Yeah, man, probably. Sorry about that. Yeah, Patrick Kelly said, "Some more possible fading of Scotland.
26:01
They are two to one to be eliminated in the group stage on DraftKings." You can bet that. You know, more, more Scotland tweets than I imagined we would get this morning. Mm-hmm. Um, is it time? Golf update real quick.
26:12
Yeah. JJ Sp- this is gonna be a long, well, hopefully it's a long shot sweat. JJ Spaun with a two-shot lead at the Charles Schwab Challenge. I'm on him at 30 to one. Ain't right? There you go. There you go.
26:23
And then one, two shots behind him in solo second, a guy that, uh, Gil has seen me bet many times this year. I did not bet this week, and Wes and Matt did. Rio Hietsune. Wow. Two shots off. Okay.
26:36
But actually, I, as I texted Matt Brown this morning, you know who's three shots back? Gary Woodland, who I love, and then Doug Ghim. Doug Ghim.
26:43
So obviously, Doug Ghim will win this tournament, uh, for the first time at the PGA Tour- That's a bestie everybody knows... after we've bet him a million times. That's the Charles Schwab Challenge.
26:50
We're three weeks away from the US Open? Ooh, good question. Uh- I believe it's three, right? Yes, that sounds right. You have any- Father's Day, three weeks. Yeah. Do you have any thoughts on that? Any, uh, bets yet?
26:58
No. Nothing yet. Nothing locked and loaded yet. Oh, cool. Can't wait. Can't wait. Let's do it. It's time for Are We Sure? You think you know what's going on in the sports betting world? Are you sure? I'm positive.
27:14
Gil and Kelly tackle the hard-hitting questions on another exciting edition of Are We Sure? You know, exciting, exciting might be a bit of hyperbole. It's one of our best opens. It is one of our best opens.
27:26
I like the song at the end. We don't, you know, we haven't done Are We Sure? in a while it feels like. We should do it more often just for the open. Yeah, yeah, I agree. Yeah. I agree. Okay. Uh, hey, Gil Alexander.
27:35
Yes, sir. Are we sure- Mm-hmm... with Jannik Sinner out, Zverev should be the favorite to win the French Open? Uh, yeah. I mean, his clay numbers, again, just the raw clay data, six months, one year, is,
27:50
if you take Sinner out, is still the best of the bunch. Okay. Still the best of the bunch. We're seeing Novak Djokovic do i- doing, uh- Actually, let me-...
27:57
fist pumps over there like he's ready to win another Grand Slam. Well, he's got a set point to go up two sets to none. It's actually, if you take out Sinner- Yeah...
28:04
the best one-year numbers, let me, let me re- let me rephrase. The best one-year numbers, actually, Djokovic. Hmm. I just don't have six-month. And the best six-month numbers is Casper Ruud with the, with Sinner out.
28:15
But- How short term do you go? Just six months. Okay. I don't go shorter than that. Um, here's, here's my, here's my one year, six year. It's Sinner, Djokovic, Ruud, Nadal, Sascha Zverev.
28:27
So, but, but- Nadal comes in top five in the past year? In, in clay, yeah. Wow. In clay he does. Cerundolo, by the way, sixth. That's why he represented- Okay... the best value. But, uh, should he be the short shot?
28:38
Based on, based on the bracket, um, now, you know, Sinner was, Sinner is not on his side of things. Sascha Zverev has Nadal in his quarter. So I don't know. I, I will, I will say no, I'm not sure that he should be. Okay.
28:54
Not sure that he should be. Who's, who's the Gil Alexander favorite to win the French Open right now? Uh, I will say J- oh my, am I really gonna, is this really gonna come out of my mouth? Dude, say it.
29:03
He's- I think it's-... a freaking winner, man... I think it's Djokovic. I think Djokovic is the rightful, given, given the pedigree- Mm-hmm...
29:09
I still think he's probably the rightful favorite, though I will say, as I said earlier, Sinner's out, Shelton's out. Matteo Berrettini is in that quarter.
29:18
That's a pretty good path now for Berrettini to come out of there. He's been in the final of this tournament before.
29:25
Um, and then in his half of the bracket, Medvedev is gone, so he would, you know, would a Berrettini-Cerundolo quarter shock me? It would not.
29:34
Somebody f- is coming out of that half of the bracket that is going to be a shocker at this point with all the eliminations. So to me, I think Djokovic is the rightful short shot, but I wouldn't make that bet. All right.
29:47
Ran- I'd make a longer shot bet. Random question for you. Mm-hmm. Just talk, we saw Sinner go out yesterday. Uh, Djok- and we're talking about Djokovic right now.
29:54
Is there something to, I, I, I know we talked about the heat being a problem for Sinner and the cramping being an issue for him.
30:00
Is there something, though, of learning how to play, like the, in these conditions, these, I mean, obviously- Yeah... for these five setters?
30:08
Like it just, Djokovic it feels like we've seen for how many years now have to battle through different conditions at different tournaments, five setter after five setter. I'm just wondering if that is part of the- S-...
30:19
that endurance is something that you have to learn through your career. Sinner has to do something about it. Sinner has to do it. He's never won a match I think that has gone beyond four and a half hours. Okay.
30:30
This is like, oh, for career Um, so this has always been a thing with him, and they've gotta figure it out. Darren Cahill and his team have to figure out something.
30:39
Maybe they go, we talked about this, maybe go to Florida. Maybe you start training.
30:42
Maybe you start getting used to bad conditions because this is always, unless you start trying to train him and get him acclimated, this is always gonna plague his career. It's gonna keep popping up. Yeah.
30:53
I don't, I don't know what it is. They have to do something. I'm glad you understood that question- Yes... 'cause I know it wasn't perfectly worded. But it's, you know, how many years have we seen Djokovic?
30:59
It's just, like, we think he's getting old, and he can still grind through these massive tournaments. Um, okay. Are we sure the Knicks should be underdogs to both the Spurs or the Thunder in the finals, Gil? Yes.
31:11
I mean, this Knicks team is- Yes... hasn't lost in over a month. I am sure. [laughs] I am sure. The, the Thunder and Spurs, how can I put this, are better than the Knicks. I had to do the- In every which way...
31:22
I had to do the sports talk favored question, uh, for you. Yeah. It'll stop in New York, people. Oh, oh, oh. Are we sure Mitchell Robinson being out with a broken finger is a big deal? No. 'Cause he's not out.
31:31
'Cause he's not out. Not a big deal. Bad question. I should've edited this this morning, apparently. Are we sure AJ Dybantsa will be the first pick in the NBA draft? I am sure. I think the Wizards are gonna draft him.
31:43
It sounds like they are. When I was in DC it seemed like fait accompli. I think they're doing it. He's first. Are we sure the USA soccer team should only be 18 to 1 to reach the World Cup final?
31:54
Okay, so this is kind of why, why I asked Felika what I asked him. I don't know. Right. I mean, should they, they're only 18 to 1 to reach the final? Yes, to reach the final. No, they should be way longer than that.
32:05
This is, it is. Yeah. But I don't even think we need to know anything. Yeah. We just need to know how betting works on US sports teams. Just, just history tells you- Right... it should be longer than that.
32:12
Like, feels like, feels like there's a at least one zero missing there. [laughs] At least. At least. If, if not four. Right, [laughs] if not four. Yeah, yeah. Oh, man.
32:20
All right, are we sure the Guardians should be minus 195 to win the mighty AL Central? Okay, so you know I have a season win total under on the Guardians. I don't think that highly of them.
32:30
But the problem is, who's beating them in the division? Mm. That's a different que- that's a different question entirely. Is it the Tigers? Not this year. Is it the Royals? Not this year. Is it the Twinkies?
32:41
Pfft, not this year. Is it the White Sox? The White Sox are their biggest competition, at least how it looks now. Right. Um, what's the number, minus 195? Yeah. No. Here's how I'll answer that.
32:55
I'm not sure they should be that, and if you have minus 190 to burn on a division play, play the Yankees in the East. Good call. That number. Good call. I like that. Yeah.
33:04
I like that, especially since I was looking at the Yankees earlier. Uh, are we sure the Phillies should be a favorite to make the playoffs? Yes. They should be a favorite.
33:14
Those numbers really been crashing here in the past couple days. To make the playoffs.
33:17
'Cause if you think about it, you go to the National League, and you're like, all right, who, remember, in the format that, that exists now, six teams make the, uh, post season, right?
33:25
Three division winners, three wild cards. Yeah, yeah. So, uh, I'll give you the Cubs. Uh, let's say the Brewers win the Central, I'll give you the Cubs. Let's say the Dodgers win the West, I'll give you the Padres.
33:38
Are there two more teams that are gonna oust the Phillies? That's what would have to happen. Well, w- is there one more team that would oust the Phillies? Pardon me.
33:46
That's what would have to happen in that scenario for the, for the Phillies not to get in. Who's that team? Is that team the Diamondbacks? Maybe. Is that team the Nationals? I don't think so. Oh, man.
33:58
I think the Phillies should be a favorite. I think the Phillies should be a favorite. All right. Absolutely. Added on question 'cause I think you're looking at the same market that I am right now.
34:04
There's six teams favored to make the playoffs for the National League. Do you see any of those teams not making it? I'm not. I'm just looking at the standings. Who are the six?
34:11
Dodgers, Braves, Brewers, Cubs, Phillies, Padres. Those are the six I just named. Yeah. And I agree with those six. Yeah. Yep. Are we sure? Are we sure Storey Bonatony's gonna join us next? Oh, we are.
34:22
I, I believe we are. Let's talk some hockey. It's the Numbers Game at VSIN, the sports betting network.
34:27
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSIN, the sports betting network.
34:43
Back on the Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander. Kelly Vedan. Heyo. In the hizzy.
34:50
Um, after our show, which, uh, happens at, uh, 10:00 AM Pacific, 1:00 PM Eastern, Prop Points joins us for an hour o- on the network, Nick Whalen, Jeff Erickson.
35:00
And then after that it is Money Moves hosted by Stormy Bonatony. She has made some extra time for us this morning, talk some Stanley Cup playoffs. She joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
35:10
Stormy, good morning to you. What up? How are you guys this morning? [laughs] Doing very well. By the way, uh, if you wanna follow her on Twitter, uh, go Storm Bonatony. Don't do Stormy. Yes.
35:21
Apparently someone had Stormy Bonatony. Yo, was that taken? What happened? No, we just, we reached the character limit. Oh. Oh. There's too many letters in my last name.
35:28
[laughs] So if I had to pick somewhere to take a letter off, that made the most sense, no? Uh, yeah, that, I guess so. I suppose so. Bonatone would've, would've been another option. Yeah. Uh, I have a question for you.
35:38
Before we get into all your picks here on tonight's game between the Canadiens and the Hurricanes, Hurricanes looking to close out the Canadiens, looking to take on the Vegas Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup final.
35:48
Uh, I'm curious. You cover the team. You obviously do work for ESPN in the NHL.
35:54
It got back to us, and this didn't surprise me, but I w- but I was curious that it, that it finally was sort of out there, that the Vegas Golden Knights and their fan base are not beloved throughout the land.
36:05
Is this true? And how, how have you sort of soaked that information in? You've seen this with your own two eyes. Oh, yeah. They're, they're a villain of this post-season for sure now.
36:15
Um, but it's interesting because if you think back to year one initially, there was so much love for the Vegas Golden Knights because if you didn't have a team, they could kind of be your team.
36:28
There was obviously the expansion draft and, like, everybody called them the misfits. They're kind of these throwaways from other teams, and there was a lot of affinity for them.
36:37
And then you think into the emotional element of it with what happened with October 1, the community rallying and how much- Yeah... people kind of fell in love with the story.
36:47
Then they made the Cup Final, and everyone's like, "Oh, okay. Well, that's a little jacked up."
36:50
Like, there have been, lots of us are waiting for decades to get back to that position, and it's year one you get there, and then year after year after year, they continue to make the playoffs.
37:00
They continue to find themselves in the Western Conference Final. They won a Stanley Cup, and now they're in position to potentially win a second in four years. So people think that we're spoiled.
37:09
People think that we are ungrateful for what we have as well, and then you have the Kelly McCrimmon and higher leadership cutthroat element of it all as well, that Vegas has certainly become, I think, pretty villainous throughout the course of the league.
37:24
And then you look on the other side of the country right now, and the Toronto Maple Leafs, for example, who really, really are frustrated because now Vegas has one of their own who has- Mm-hmm...
37:35
been exceptional [laughs] in the playoffs in Mitch Marner when, when he wasn't able to do that with them.
37:40
Um, one more gossipy question: How much does this franchise hate, uh, Bruce Cassidy, that they won't let him interview- [laughs]... with another team? What's going on there? What's the story?
37:48
Just a- It's, I, I really, really feel for Bruce, and listen, he's doing the best that he can going out on all these different radio shows and podcasts and stuff like that, trying to make his case, and the fact that the Coaches Association has come out in support of him, I get 100% where he's coming from, but we've also seen the league come out and support Vegas being fully within their rights to do this.
38:10
It's, I always say it's the golden rule, he who has the gold makes the rules, and Vegas is paying Bruce Cassidy. Yeah, they are. Vegas can do what they want to while he's under contract.
38:20
And, um, Kelly McCrimmon, their general manager, was just on the radio yesterday saying the only reason this is a story is because Edmonton leaked it and was very [laughs] frustrated with that, that he's had conversations with Bruce, understands where, where he's coming from, but he is doing what he thinks is best for the organization.
38:37
Hmm. And it kinda, it is what it is. There's nothing else anybody can do about it at this point. What I got from that answer, Kelly, by the way, w- how much they hate him, was a lot. Yes.
38:44
That's what I got from that answer. Y- no. Yeah, yeah. And that stinks, because I, I disagree with it.
38:48
It's bad form, but I also get it from Vegas' standpoint of the teams that are pursuing him are in your division, and [laughs] that's, that's gonna be tough if Edmonton comes back with a new coach who's your old coach who you let go, and then they make a sick run in the playoffs.
39:01
Yeah. You know- That's a good point... you know what I got from that answer? Hmm. Is Kelly McCrimmon, welcome to the coolest of male Kellys. [laughs] That's what I got.
39:09
How annoying is it when the two hosts of the show just g- grade the answer right afterwards? [laughs] Very, I'm sure it's very annoying to the guest. All right, Carolina- I'll allow it, because it's you. I'll allow it.
39:18
Thank you. Thank you very much. [laughs] Carolina-Montreal, Game 5. Carolina looking to close out the Canadiens and advance to the Stanley Cup Final against the Vegas Golden Knights.
39:29
If they do so, Stormy, this will be a 12 and 1 run to start the playoffs for the Carolina Hurricanes. How do you see this game? How are you betting it?
39:39
Yeah, they've been unbelievable, and I, I haven't bet a side in this. I do think that the Canes close it out. Selfishly, as someone who laid 1 1/2 games with Carolina in this series, [laughs] I hope they do.
39:49
But the way that they came off of that Game 4 win, it was the first time we really saw the scoreboard reflect just how one-sided the play has been in favor of the Canes, because you have games two and three that end up being these 3-2 overtime games.
40:04
If you're a Montreal fan, you really fully believe that you're just a shot away. But Carolina fully outplayed them, and you look in this last game, it's a 4-0 shutout. Um, Carolina has 44 shots to Montreal's 18.
40:16
The shot attempts edge was 95 to 45. [laughs] Oh my God. And I've heard a handful of pe- yeah, it's brutal.
40:23
And I've heard a handful of people saying, "Look, there was always gonna be a shot disparity in this series because of the way Carolina plays, and Montreal is more quality over quantity. We're making too much of it."
40:33
I say agree to disagree, because this has been a historically low shooting performance for Montreal.
40:38
We have never seen in a three-game span in the playoffs, or excuse me, dating back to the time it was tracked in 1959, we have never seen a three-game streak in the playoff [laughs] where there have been this few shots on goal from a team, and I think that's gonna continue tonight.
40:53
Even if Montreal tries to come out guns a-blazing, what is that still for them? Like, 18, 19, 20 shots on- [laughs] That's right... you know? It's just,
41:04
they're so fatigued right now, too, that I think at this point in the playoffs, that's when that starts to really matter and take a toll. They've played as many games as you can possibly play in the playoffs.
41:16
Both of their first round series go to seven. They've played in seven overtime games as well, when you put that onto it. I just kind of feel like it's the end of the road.
41:26
I wouldn't kill anybody for looking at, you know, an over 2-1 Moneyline price on Montreal and saying, "Oh, it's a closeout game. Anything can happen." Sure. Um, I just won't be doing it.
41:36
And you have Carolina minus, uh, minus a game and a half in this series, so you're s- Yes... you're sitting pretty with that. Um, you have a lean to the under, is that correct?
41:47
Yeah, I just, I mean, the way that Carolina defends, and I've been betting unders on the Canes all post-season. I don't really think I should stray away from it now.
41:56
10 of the 12 games that they've played have seen five or fewer goals scored. Betting the opposing team total under has been extremely profitable. I'm not even a Freddie Andersen girl.
42:07
I have been so anti backing him for Conn Smythe, and now, given some of my futures positions, I'm like, "Do I have to bet Frederik Andersen for Conn Smythe?" [laughs] He's got a 1.44 goals against average right now.
42:17
It's just, everything tells me, again, and I go back to the fatigue element of it, too.
42:23
Everything tells me that this is gonna show up Carolina, and if Carolina's dictating play, that means it's gonna be a lower scoring game.
42:30
That very first game of the series, guys, we saw Montreal, like, being able to have some of those breakouts and slide through the neutral zone. Carolina was so rusty and couldn't get to their game.
42:40
They have looked like a completely different group, like the one that swept the first two rounds, over these last couple of games, just in terms of eye test and game play.
42:48
And if that continues, [laughs] then that means it's gonna be another long day for Montreal and a low-scoring affair. Um, where do you stand beyond your Carolina minus a game and a half in this series?
42:59
Where do you stand on all your futures? You're set up pretty good, right? So good and bad. Oh, okay. Um, because I'm very pro-Golden Knights.
43:07
Like, as a, as a fan and somebody who lives in Vegas, I always bet Vegas to win the cup at the beginning of the year. So I have a 10 to one Golden Knights ticket. Nice.
43:15
And then as we got into the post-season, we had a lot of the conversation of if there is a world where Vegas beats Colorado, then Mitch Marner at 12 to one is an s- insane price. So I fired on that as well.
43:27
Carolina, meanwhile, is a team that I have bet for the last five years, Gil- Oh... to win the cup year after year after year. Girl. Oh, no. Eastern Conference Final futures.
43:37
I didn't bet it this year because they've done me so dirty repeatedly. [laughs] Oh, man. And now I, like, I don't know what to do to hedge. So if you have any advice, please let me know.
43:44
I'm too heavy on Vegas, and I need something on Carolina. I thi- I mean, I think the, the clean way is Hurricanes win here, right?
43:52
They beat the Canadiens either today or tomorrow or the next one, or t- say or two days or one of these last three games, in other words.
43:58
So you get a Hurricanes, Golden Knights Stanley Cup Final, and not to offend Vegas Golden Knights fans like yourself, but the Hurricanes will be favored in that series. Mm-hmm.
44:05
And I think you just bet on the Hurricanes at that point on the money line on, on the series. It should be a m- it shouldn't be that big of a money line. Yeah, that's the cleaner way. That's the cleanest way to do it.
44:13
I'd probably bet one, 145 right now. Or, or you bet Carolina. That's right. Yeah. Or you don't even wait, and you bet Carolina right now minus 145. Ugh. But that does leave the Canadiens- Sure does. [laughs]...
44:23
open to kill you on both ends. So I would wait, personally.
44:27
You- Well, I would say the one good thing about that is that in the, I think, conference finals or semifinals, it's, like, once in 73 times ever in history has a team down three-one come all the way back.
44:37
So maybe you're right. Maybe it should just be the minus 145 and just bite the bullet. One ain't zero, Stormy. One ain't ze- no, I think, I think you're probably safe, but I'm just saying. Or go half-half. Yeah.
44:47
Or something like that. Yeah. You're, I mean, you're, you're probably good. What could go wrong is what we're trying to say. For sure. Yeah. You're doing nothing.
44:52
Now that you've said I'm probably good, that means I'm definitely hosed. Yeah. [laughs] Montreal's gonna win the next two, and then we'll have a g- it'll, it'll be a b- a whole thing.
44:58
Before you go, your bets aside, in your heart of hearts, do you think the Golden Knights win the Stanley Cup? Oh, think they do? I want them to, want them to. Think. We're asking you to think.
45:08
That's all I'll give you right now. That's all she wrote. Wow. Okay. All right. That's all we got. Find out more on Money Moves. That's right. Thank you, Stormy. Appreciate it.
45:16
Stormy Bonitatibus, everybody, host of Money Moves, an hour after we're on. Steve Fezzik, next. Fezzik Fridays.
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