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May 29, 2026
A Numbers Game | May 29, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | May 29, 2026 | Hour 3
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48:17
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Transcript
0:00
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0:29
[upbeat rock music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story. They always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:47
Hour number three of the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM channel 158.
0:55
I am grateful each and every morning that you choose one of those ways to join us. You make it a blast, seriously. Best listeners in the game.
1:02
Uh, Kelly is behind the glass because, ladies and gentlemen, it is time for Fezzik Fridays. [upbeat rock music] Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge.
1:13
It's time for Fezzik Fridays. Starring the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest, Steve Fezzik, ladies and gentlemen. You can follow him on Twitter, at your own peril, @FezzikSports.
1:24
That's F-E-Z-Z-I-K Sports. Uh, first of all, sir, thank, uh, thank you for coming. Appreciate it. Good to see you. Are you ready for the summer? Are you ready for the summertime? Is that from some movie or something?
1:36
No more classes. No more books. No more teachers. Dirty looks. The great Bill Murray, Meatballs. [laughs] I think I saw that in the theater when I was a kid. It just doesn't matter. Meat- Meatballs. That's right.
1:49
[laughs] Uh, why are you... First of all, why are you texting us at 3:00 in the morning? What are you doing? Why are you out that late? Should I ask why you're out that late?
1:56
I was playing Poker Blast tournaments on World Series of Poker. Oh. Yes. Okay. I'm a short stack specialist, and I wanted to lead today 'cause Crackman came on, did his- Ah, yes...
2:08
tremendous job as always, almost as good as Wishneff Wednesdays- [laughs]... like Crack Thursdays- [laughs]... where he was talking about World Series of Poker and how
2:18
they are allowing late entries, and I assume rebuys, up until, or very deep into the day one. And so two-thirds of the field has been eliminated, and some people [laughs] are just arriving for the tournament.
2:32
And the problem with that, from a, a business perspective, makes total sense. Get more, uh, revenue, more people sign up, you're raking 20%, and the prize pool goes up.
2:43
But the problem is it's inherently unfair, believe it or not, to the people who've been playing the entire tournament because, and then think about this, if you could just enter on the last hand, you could, um, sign up before the bubble.
2:56
You [laughs] just wait till the bubble. You, you survive one orbit, boom, you're in the money, and you double up. Mm-hmm.
3:02
And so because one chip, just having one chip, that last chip, an ICM, um, math geek stuff warning, that last chip is worth so much more than all the other chips just to survive and make it into the money.
3:16
And so because of that, um, late enterers, believe it or not, actually have an edge in terms of their expectation. Thank you for that clarification.
3:24
Is it, is it a dream of yours to participate in the World Series of Poker, by the way? Uh, no, I played. I finished. Like, I had a 19th place finish- 19th... in, in the six-handed. You did? Really?
3:32
Yeah, I played in the main event. Okay. I w- ended, ended day two. I'm a, you know, I'm not a great poker player. I'm a good t- poker player. I'll say this. I'm a great short stack player.
3:40
So, and, and this is not, there's tu- there's millions of great short stack players, okay? Maybe not millions, but a really good short stack player is better than Phil Hel- Hellmuth. He's better than Phil Ivey.
3:51
Now, how is that possible?
3:52
Well, obviously we're not as good as Hellmuth or Ivey heads up, but if you have a full table and everybody has 100 big blinds and Stevie Fezzik has 10, I have an advantage against everybody, and the reason is they're all playing optimally trying to get all the chips of the other people that have 100 big blinds.
4:10
I'm just playing my short stacks, um, all in or fold basically with my 10 big blinds. It's so easy to play. It's like a chess opening. You can just memorize the moves and have a little chart.
4:22
You can adjust it slightly for the players. It's easy-peasy to play with a short stack.
4:26
All right, let's talk about the, uh, the big upset that happened in tennis yesterday, Jannik Sinner going down as one of the big favorites at any tournament ever in tennis history.
4:36
And, uh, I'd like you to sort of address this from a, uh, from a prediction market standpoint and the lessons we can learn from this. By the way, I'm the idiot that bet Purdue three years ago. That's you.
4:46
Minus 4,500, so I'm not qualified to talk about any of this stuff. However, having said that- [laughs] Oh, you'll give it a go anyway. I will give it a go anyway. Yeah.
4:55
So the, uh, a, a couple, some people famously laid 50 to win a dollar, so Jannik Sinner was 98% to win- We saw reports of that, yeah... on the betting exchanges.
5:04
So, or you could take 50 to 1, and it really shows there's people out there that keep talking about, "Oh, these betting exchanges, you're playing against the sharks. You're up against it. You're not gonna win.
5:14
You should just play against traditional sportsbooks." Well, the traditional sportsbooks, a lot of them were paying 25 to 1, whatever Stiff won, um, against the Heat- Juan Manuel Cerundolo. Yeah, the Stiff. Yeah. Uh-huh.
5:25
That, so, uh, against the heatstroke guy. So Sinner- Yeah... at, at, at Circa for instance, you had to bet 200 to win a dollar, all right? Not 50 to win a dollar.
5:33
You are laying 200 to win a dollar, and it just goes to show the, we talked about this before, the s- the traditional sportsbooks wanna preserve their 4.5% hold, and it just becomes egregious [laughs] where they'll offer 30 to 1 on something and they'll, uh, uh, 35 in this case with Circa, but they'll charge you, you have to lay 200 to win a dollar the other way.
5:54
Nobody wins. Both sides, horrendous bets. But having said that- I did wanna dwell into Sinner losing and the whole weather aspect. Really weird weather helps the underdog. When Gil and Steve play tennis- Mm-hmm...
6:09
I wanna play outdoors, and I want the wind blowing- [laughs]... 30 miles an hour. I want the sun in your eyes, so you can't wear your glasses. Right.
6:17
Or because they're uncomfortable, and if you, if you take 'em off, then the sun's terrible in your eyes. You get the idea.
6:23
Almost every upset, big upset that happens, happens because there's some elements that help level the playing field. So in football, you want the field to be a quagmire.
6:33
You want there to be a monsoon coming in and the wind blowing sideways. And in a game like that, obviously, it helps the running team also, but Navy can go ahead and beat Ohio State, given the planets align.
6:47
There's no way [laughs] Navy's gonna ever beat Ohio State if the weather is perfect. Yeah. And no one's ever beaten Sinner if the weather is perfect, for him anyway- Mm-hmm... uh, in that tournament.
6:57
Um, back to the, uh, the prediction market thing just for a second. Um, so let's just put that in real terms 'cause you, you, you sorta glossed through it. I hope people don't miss this. So s- in that match,
7:09
you had to lay 200, it was 200 to, to win, what was it, a dollar on Sinner? At, at Circa. At Circa. Yes. In a prediction market- Pre-flop... pre-flop, it was $50 to win one on Sinner.
7:21
Um, otherwise put, let's just put it in, you know, you would've lost, uh, you know, if, so just, you know, scale that. 200,000 to win 1,000 versus 50,000 to win 1,000, so on and so forth.
7:33
Uh, what about the straddles on some of these as well? Yeah, yeah, and, and that's the problem, is that the straddle at, at a prediction market, you're paying, like, a little bit of, um, uh, fees- Yeah...
7:44
commissions, but there, there is no str adds. Minus 5,000, plus 5,000. Right. I, I, I only do the American pricing. I'm sorry.
7:51
I know people, like, they, I, I understand mathematically you're supposed to say, you know, the 98 and the two, you know, and talk about the percentage. That's right. And it makes all the math sense in the world.
8:00
It's, it's a different language, but you know, once you become adept at the language, you will be fluent in it as well. Yeah, I can't. I'm like an American. I like- Yeah... I can't do meters. I can't do cubits.
8:09
I can't do any of that.
8:10
[laughs] Anyway, so the straddle, obviously, in that match was, is sizable, but that, that, that difference in straddle exists in all tennis matches, prediction markets versus sports books, in all sports.
8:21
Baseball is the biggest example of this. A- and, and VSiN does a great job with their live bets, you know, over, on, on these games, and they talk about what the line is, you know, currently.
8:29
But I'll say it, it's, it, it, it's completely worthless when you're talking about a money line once a t- a, a team becomes a large favorite.
8:37
Because, like, all the time, like, "Oh, do you wanna lay minus 800, or do you wanna take, you know, plus 425?"
8:42
And it's like, I wanna get a gaming license, and I wanna book the bets in either direction because the straddle is so egregious in each direction that they're basically, that market would be saying the correct line is minus 610 plus 610, right?
8:55
So if it, I'll round it. So if it's minus 600 plus 600, it's gonna be so rare that you're, you're gonna have a good bet
9:03
taking four to one on the underdog, and it's gonna be so rare that you're gonna have a good bet laying, you know, minus 800 on the favorite. It's just too big of, of a differential. I just dismiss it.
9:11
It's not to say there won't be a good bet on a rare occasion, but even in baseball, like live betting, "Oh, Boston's minus 170 and Atlanta's plus 133." No, thank you. Yeah. Nobody wins playing into those straddles.
9:22
Nobody wins. Maybe Wishnev. Did, did- Maybe Todd. Did, did you see Matt Kalish's latest salvo defending the business model of limiting sharp bettors? Did you see that latest? He, he, yes, and I was really disappointed.
9:33
So, um, Matt Kalish, one of the founders of DraftKings, correct? Yes. So he came on, and every one of these guys- No longer with DraftKings, I don't believe. I- I think he's got his own thing now... I believe so. Yeah.
9:42
Uh, but every one of these guys, it's like the industry s- standard where th- when, when asked about limiting people, they come out, and they always say, "Well, it's very important that we can limit people.
9:53
Example, we, we really like to limit problem gamblers." Oh, boy. "Because we're concerned," it's like Gary Loveman used to do this all the time. Yeah.
9:59
"We're very concerned about our, you know, gamblers, and if you've, gambling too much or you're having an issue." And, and my point is, like, the truth is those are their best customers.
10:09
How many people, Gil, do you know that, like, they gamble too much, they don't gamble very well, and they gamble with money that they shouldn't be gambling with, just i- in, in town? Many, many. Dozens, probably. Yeah.
10:18
Right? Me too. Yeah. How many of them have been limited at one- [laughs]... sports book or one casino? Uh, zero. Zero point zero. Yeah. I literally know people- Yeah...
10:28
that are, you know, have, have, you know, gone bankrupt gambling. Yeah. And they've never been limited.
10:34
So don't come out and, and lead with, "Hey, the number one reason," you know, you're talking about, like, you know, a DraftKings or FanDuel, "The number one reason we wanna be able to limit people is to protect, you know, the problem gambler."
10:45
No. You know what their, their definition of problem gamblers are? The people that beat them, because those are the problem gamblers that are, you know, th- that are a threat to them, and they limit them to, to $18.
10:55
It takes an amazing amount of, uh, you know, at worst, audacity, but I will s- I, I will give him the benefit of the doubt.
11:02
I'll say, at best, just an ignorance and an, and an un, a- an inability to understand, 'cause he describes himself as, "You know, I've been this, I've been with this since the inception of legalized gambling."
11:14
Okay, inception of legalized gambling, but there was a whole world that existed before this. He acts like he's the Christopher Columbus of this entire industry, right?
11:22
[laughs] And so, or depending on how you, who you think r- discovered whatever.
11:25
But it's just an incredible disconnect between reality and not only what he thinks, but that he thinks, he's saying the quiet part out loud, which- And-... which he doesn't get, like, he shouldn't be talking like this.
11:37
A- and the truth of it, and every- everyone knows this, all the sharps know this, th- like, within the industry, everyone respects the bookmakers at Circa and Westgate- Way more than any of these bookmakers at all these other operators that limit everyone.
11:52
Because if their, um, if their bookmakers were any good, if they could set any kind of good numbers, they wouldn't have to limit every single person with a pulse like they do. They don't even try, and it's funny.
12:02
Like, the earnings report, they talked about, you know, a new customer acquisition. No one even brings up the fact that a lot of these operators, they can't even set a line.
12:11
Like, when they're the first ones to set a virgin line, they're just universally made fun of. Like, they're, they're, they're just guessing.
12:17
They got some 70,000-a-year dude just guessing, you know, what the line should be Texas-Texas A&M. Steve Fezzik, everybody.
12:24
More with Steve on the other side, including a baseball season win total bet next on The Numbers Game. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real.
12:35
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14:17
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14:27
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. The clock is ticking on one of the best VSiN Pro offers of the year.
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15:10
This offer expires on Sunday. Do not wait. Head to vsin.com/subscribe. Use promo code PRO. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. We got tweets. Readin' the book. MoneygunnGuzz, who did very well in Circa Millions this past year.
15:24
He said, "I'll be in town next weekend signing up for Millions. Will swing by and say hello on Monday, June 8th, if you and Kelly are around, and I'm looking forward to Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals live in person.
15:34
Cheers." There you go. He's got tickets for the Golden Knights against we shall see. Uh, let's see. This is from, uh [tongue click]... Oh, and this is a great one. From NewYorkFootballGiants42, "Finish this sentence."
15:46
Well, this is what I was getting at yesterday when Sinner was being eliminated. He says, "The player who will be kicking themselves the most if they don't win this French Open is blank."
15:54
Ugh, there's so many answers to that question. It'll be Djokovic 'cause he wants to win 25 so bad. It'll be Zverev because he's had this whole career where a Major has eluded him and he's become, and he's come so close.
16:08
I will say the answer is Sascha Zverev by a tick, but it's a really paper-thin margin over anybody else, but that's the order: Zverev, Djokovic, one, two.
16:19
Steve Fezzik back in studio with us today, uh, as he is always on Fezzik Fridays. Uh, Steve, the other thing about, uh, you come here sometimes. You got things to say.
16:27
You got sports bets to make, but you also have actionable betting information by promoting some other stuff. What do you got today? Yeah, so let's start with, uh, World Series poker. So we talked about the negatives.
16:36
Let's talk about the positive. Reload26. What's this? I'm on their, um, their website. $1,000 match. You, you, you put $1,000 into the wsop.com, and they match you a thousand. Now, they hold it hostage.
16:50
You gotta play through quite a bit of action, but given you're already playing poker, uh, why not pick up your $1,000? Why not have your wife pick up $1,000?
16:58
So we're both gonna go ahead, ahead and put in our $1,000 deposits and, you know, play that through over the- Name of the site again? There's some... Uh, wsop.com. Uh, the code is reload26. Reload26.
17:10
All right, there's two other websites. You were talking blackjack. You brought in a book last week. Some, some websites you wanna promote for that as well?
17:16
Yeah, so we, we came on Rosenthal's book, uh, Breaking the Slot Code. Yeah. All right? That we talked about that. But, um, two sites. One, an old-school site, Stanford Wong's site, bj21.com. It's been around forever.
17:28
If you want to learn to be a good blackjack player, definitely recommend it. They've got different tiers. They've got, like, the basic tier, and then the green chip tier, and then the black chip tier.
17:36
You gotta pay for the higher levels. Um, but pursuant to that, Anthony Curtis, Huntington Press. What's this? Just watched. [laughs] slotslayers.com. This is like- What's this? This is, like, incredible.
17:48
So, like, like, if, like- There's a dude, like, there's lots of guys that do this. They're like slot vultures.
17:54
They just go around the casino looking for mini jackpots that have built up wh- it could be the Frankenstein monster, um, you know, slot machine, or, like, hundreds of others, right? That, that, that, that it builds up.
18:05
So, um, because of that, if you've ever, like, wanted to get into that, and recommendation, like, when you're reading a book by Rosenthal or when you go to this website, don't try to become an expert on 30 different games.
18:18
Pick one game- Mm-hmm... and get really good at it, and in terms of how to, you know, turn the tables and get an edge. And the, and the, the beauty of this is when, okay, you find an advantage play in slots, right?
18:30
Wait until the casino's having a promotion, and they're giving away a car, and you need, like, lots of points for the drawing, or you want a better status code so you get free parking, and you get free dinners, and things like that.
18:41
Stack the different promotions up one after another. All right. So, I'm curious if you have a take on this.
18:47
So Caesars takes over the West Gate Sports Book operations, and then Tilman Fertitta, billionaire, goes ahead and buys all of Caesars. Do you have any take on any of this? Just that consolidation is rarely good.
19:01
You don't want a monopoly. You don't want...
19:04
Y- you want multiple different books because every one of them will look to increase their market share, and they'll do things, sometimes crazy things, like, um, use the Virgin, for instance, um, hotel.
19:16
They had a sports book just 15 months ago. [laughs] March Madness, uh, minus 100 betting. Some might call that even money betting on every game. How are they gonna make up for the fact that they're not charging any vig?
19:27
Higher volume. Well, that didn't work.
19:30
Um, but the, uh, inevitably, the more competition there is, the different the lines are, the more promotions are offered, the more contests that are offered, and when there's fewer and fewer sports books and consolidation, which may well happen with this, uh, there becomes less opportunity.
19:48
$5.7 billion. You have that kind of money lying around, Steve?
19:52
You know, it's interesting because I don't know if Caesars is worth a penny because they're, obviously they've got this horrible debt structure where they're, um,
20:01
if, if, if they were just paid for, they're making money, but then they gotta make, you know, cut a check every, every month to pay, you know, the interest on the debt, and that's the problem.
20:10
Yeah, he's absorbing 11.9 billion in debt. So it's a, it's a $17.6 billion transaction when you put that into the mix. $31 per share if you wanna do it in those terms. Um, okay, let's talk about a baseball play.
20:27
Teased that before. You have, you're always making season, adjusted season win total plays during the baseball season. What's the latest? All right, so let's talk about the New York Mets. Okay.
20:34
So famously, by the way, Joe Pete is doing really well with the season win bets overall. I think he gave 11 of them. I think they're doing very well. Um, and the Mets back preflop were, I think, 90 and a half. All right?
20:47
So now the Mets are sitting at 78 and a half, all right? And that's, like, a, an enormous adjustment, and so we're gonna set up, don't bet this yet. Oh, no. [laughs] Here we go. Don't bet this up. [laughs] No.
20:57
Set up the New York Mets over 78 and a half. Don't bet it yet. All right, you got it set up? You got it in your betting slip? Opposite. We are going opposite. Oh, no. We are betting the Mets under, under 78 and a half.
21:10
I don't care that the Mets were lined at 90 and, and a half. I don't care that everybody liked them. Uh, I don't care that we're barely past the quarter pole in baseball. The Mets are no good.
21:21
The Mets are 10 games below 500. The Mets are a minus 29 run differential.
21:27
I think I'm gonna be wildly optimistic and quote a line from Meatballs, "Even if the Mets play so far above their heads versus what they played year to date that their noses bleed for the rest of the summer,
21:41
they're probably a 500 team." And Gil, if they play at a 500 level, which is way, way better than they've been playing- Yeah... then they're gonna finish 76 and 86. Now, last time I checked, 76 is under 78 and a half.
21:55
That's true. [laughs] So we are gonna go under as my timer goes off to go ahead and make that, and make that bet. I can't- Despite having silenced my phone, I've blown it.
22:03
I can't believe you put an oppo down on these, on folks. The, so a couple things, one, quarter pole refers to the final pole, Steve. I think you know that. And, uh, two- Whoops. Yeah.
22:12
And the other thing is, you know what really would help you out with this bet, the Mets under 78 and a half wins?
22:17
If they have a bad June and July because they, y- going into sell mode would, or, and, or more specifically not into a buy mode, would very much help you as well. 100%. Yeah.
22:27
By contrast, you've got a team like Philadelphia that they've, um, they've figured it out, as they say in Forrest Gump. They've straight- Forrest Gump has straightened himself out here, as have the Phillies.
22:37
I mean, it helps that they have a pitcher that doesn't give up any runs every fifth day. Um, so wouldn't wanna step in front of Philadelphia right now. That would be a strong lean to the over, 86 and a half.
22:49
Um, generally speaking, you are an unders player, um, but that may change here. Why? So in terms of totals on baseballs- Yes...
22:57
because we have seen an unprecedented, like, cooler weather on the East Coast, and I don't know, I remember, like, I'm old enough, like, it was 1992, I think.
23:06
Some volcano exploded somewhere, and it was the coldest summer I had ever experienced in the Midwest. [laughs] Okay. All right? It was freezing, like a July 4th. Good visuals, Steve.
23:15
But, but it's been really cold late in May. I don't know what's going on. I'm not a meteorologist. Maybe ask the Whale Capper. You know, what's, what... Oh, that's more under the ground. S- s- seismologist, yeah. Mm-hmm.
23:24
Close. Yeah, close. But the, um, the bottom line is it, it is gonna heat up, and when it heats up, the ball travels further. So although we've seen all these unders, I'd be a little bit careful.
23:35
I think we're gonna suddenly see, you know, scoring going up significantly in Major League Baseball. And you wouldn't, you bet unders.
23:42
You're, uh, it's thir- it's first three innings, it's first five innings, it's under salamis. You do that as well, the grand salami? Well, right, I'm, I'm a firm believer- Yeah...
23:49
that the market is pretty darn efficient. And you know what I love about the first three under is that if you like both the starting pitchers to be dominant, all right?
23:58
And you're right You eliminate a lot of noise because any one inning there can be a, just a random craziness, you know, man on first and second, and here comes the perfect double play ball
24:09
just between the third base- [laughs] the shortstop. Mm.
24:11
And it goes to the wall, and here comes that long fly ball that should be a sack fly, but it somehow gets over the wall, and there's the crooked inning, four runs, and you lose when you play first five under four and a half.
24:22
I would much rather play first three under two and a half than, like, a first five under four. I wanna ask you about, uh, the industry next, after the break.
24:29
I wanna ask you about contests, uh, what you can learn from them. I wanna ask you about the tout industry. I wanna do all that.
24:36
Uh, but in our last 30 seconds here before the break, would you like to respond to Todd Wisniewski's guest-on-guest crime from his last appearance? 100%, and this is gonna be a little bit selfish now. Oh, no.
24:45
Todd Wisniewski on his Discord is crushing it. Yes. Won 188 units in college basketball. All right? Now, in MLB, what's this? He's up, like, 40 units.
24:58
So whatever differences I might have with Todd on other aspects- [laughs] In no way, shape, or form, selfishly, am I gonna say anything that might disrupt or distract the man from the whole purpose of sports betting, and that is winning.
25:14
Hey, whoever you're paying for for picks, fire them immediately. Fire, fire them and go and get Todd's Discord because he is better. Todd, the most nimble 280-pound human being I have ever seen. Go, Todd. Go.
25:27
Okay, that's quite enough. Coming back. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game. Football season just around the corner.
25:43
Football contests already open for business, and you don't have to live in Las Vegas to play.
25:46
After your required in-person registration, Winners Circle Proxy handles your weekly submissions so you can make your picks from anywhere in the country. Winners Circle Proxy is VSiN's preferred proxy service.
25:56
One trip to Vegas, play all season long from anywhere. Schedule your appointment now at winnerscircleproxy.com. You're a man who's won a, a contest or two. You looking forward to it?
26:07
I am not gonna win the, um, the VSiN NBA Killer Sports Challenge- Oh... where Gil Alexander has basically h- um, looks to be a lock two games up with- Wait, don't say that... three to play. Don't say that.
26:19
Don't do that to me. It, it would just take an epic collapse. [laughs] A mental fortitude, like, like, collapse. [laughs] I'm up two on Kyle Aikens with three to go. You're th- you and Zach are three back. Yeah.
26:32
Well, we know, we, we know- Yeah... Zach is gonna finish tie for second, so that's- That's what Zach does... that's what, that, that's, that's- Yeah...
26:37
the, it's like the Reds under Pete Rose when he managed them in the '80s. That's what, that's what Zach Cohen does. Here it is, Kyle Aikens- [laughs]...
26:43
held the win on the Spurs last night, so he is still alive for the, uh, the grand prize, first place, but second place is a cash money prize, too.
26:50
So Stevie, you're, you're, you c- I mean, look, we all dead heat for first still, right? I could still botch this. Might have to- What could go wrong?
26:57
I might have to start paying a lot of attention to who Kyle is picking each [laughs] week. Yes, you might, and knowing you, you, you are going to.
27:05
Let me ask you a question about, so I, I wanna take, I shouldn't take this personally, but about contests, um, you make a point about this, that you'd much rather back someone
27:20
who has, uh, so explain, I'll let you explain it 'cause you explain it better, but you wanna see a history of this. Yeah, so
27:27
what would be more logical than to take someone who won, like, Circa Millions or, like, that, that picks 70%, that guy is great.
27:36
And then you run, like, the parameters and, like, within a 99% confidence interval, you can conclude that a select handicapper must be, you know, better than a 55% handicapper because he hit 70%.
27:50
But here's the problem, and here's where the math crashes. When 6,000 people enter a contest- That's right, the, the size of the pool, yeah... the survivorship bias,
27:59
if you have 6,000 people flipping coins all year long, one of them is supposed to hit 70%. I know it sounds impossible- Right... but they are. So
28:10
a tremendous record in any one year is basically irrelevant because someone's going to put up that record, and so it's much more significant when a Jon Jarvis finishes fourth, and then he finishes 10th, and then he finishes 121st.
28:26
That 121st finish, I believe last year, for, uh, Mr.
28:29
Jarvis, even though he wasn't in the money, in my opinion, this is crazy, far more impressive than somebody winning Circa Millions once, um, because that could just be random those, or the, I mean, it could be great handicapping also, or it could be a combination.
28:44
But one thing I've, I've seen, these one-time champions that tend to win, when you run them back, what's the over under what they'll pick the next year? 51 and a half percent. Yeah.
28:54
Well, how, did this come up for any reason? Were you offended by something, or are you, 'cause- Um... you apply to the consistency in this.
29:00
I s- no, what, what happened is that Plus EV Analytics put out, like, a record of five handicappers, all good. Yeah. Like, and like, who is the best? One dude is, like, 12 and one, one dude is 50 and 34, one dude is 176.
29:13
All right? And, and usually what happens is that the people think the 12 and one's the most impressive, and it's the least impressive. You know? Right.
29:19
The bigger sample size is more impressive, but even a dude that's, like, 122 and 80, you know? If there were, if you're drawing from a sample of 500 guys, somebody is gonna be 122 and 80.
29:30
Doesn't mean they're any good at all, um, because of- Well-... the survivorship bias. Hold that thought for a second.
29:35
Let me just, uh, read this to you because you were trying to give the explanation about why entering late in the World Series, it, we have, we have a clarification question from Gizzy, who says, "I still can't understand Steve saying it's an advantage to buy in late.
29:48
Most players rebuy, but to buy in as late as he is saying, and he's correct about this, you just need luck to suv- uh, luck to survive.
29:55
To me, it's like saying you need to win $1,000 at blackjack on a $50 bankroll, and it doesn't give you any leeway."
30:03
And, and the key here is that your chance of winning the tournament is maximized by being there from the first hour. All right? Mm-hmm.
30:10
That gives you the biggest chance to get a big stack, run over people on the bubble, you can be ultra-aggressive because you're not worrying about busting on the bubble.
30:17
However, the prize pool is not winner take all, except for in Circuit Survivor.
30:23
And because there's so many other, there's so much other prize money, including typically doubling up or almost doubling up if you make the bubble, that just being alive at the bubble, even with just a s- little, small, tiny stack, is so advantageous.
30:36
And you're, a- and the later you enter with your initial starting chips, the more likely it is that you are gonna survive and get something back.
30:44
And, and, and if, i- over the course of ten thousands of tournaments, if you could just enter really close to the bubble- Ah...
30:51
you wouldn't, you would win fewer of the tournaments, but you'd make way more money than anyone else. So then that's how you should explain it. It's, it's more of a, it's a plus EV play.
30:59
It doesn't, it's not, and what Gizzy's referring to is, it's not a, it's not, doesn't give you an advantage to win the thing, but it is a plus EV play, is what you're getting at. Exactly, yes. Okay. Um, all right.
31:09
Let's talk about the, uh, let's talk about the tout industry. I know this is, uh, something that, uh, you are currently not in, and you have things to say about it. And I'm, I may well enter back in. All right.
31:20
But if, but- Portent of things to come- But... sounds like. If, if I do, I, I guarantee you this, I will not ever join a group with an umbrella of handicappers that don't win.
31:32
In fact, I wouldn't join an umbrella of e- a- if, if, if, if, if there clearly are cappers that I don't feel have the advantage, and this is the vast majority of them, there's no way I would ever be a part of that group.
31:42
And, you know, the more I look into it, it's like, my goodness, there's so many people that, like, have losing records. They won't even show it. Like, like, "Wait, what's your record?"
31:53
Like, I had, famously I had a minus 95 unit 2025, right? Mm-hmm. The five years before, I was plus 257 units. But I had a bad 2025. Then I had a, a great 2026 spring. I won, like, I don't know, 55, 65 units.
32:07
I can't remember. Um, still negative since 1/1/2025, but nobody discloses that. Nobody ever says anything but their best subset.
32:16
And it, it's gotten to the point where guys are saying, "You know, I'm, I'm red hot, I'm doing great," and you look and their last, over the last 30 days, they're down.
32:24
It's just, like, the- But that's all marketing, right? It, it's all marketing.
32:28
But, like, the, the bottom line, the, what, the what you should ask everyone, "What is your record every release you made over the last one years, three years, five years?" That should be what you're asking people.
32:38
Don't fall for this trap of someone being on a 13 and two run, and they're seeing the ball well. It's just random noise. Okay, but I think I've asked you this before. Are you being genuine?
32:47
'Cause the, because this was front and center in your face for all of these years. Why are you just having the come to Jesus about it now?
32:55
Because I was an ostrich with my head in the s- sand, and all I was doing was focusing on what I was doing and not paying it, nearly enough attention to what others were doing. Okay. So I'm, I, mea culpa, I was bad.
33:07
So did you, so you, I think you just hinted at something. Are you, uh, planning on making a return doing something here- I'm ex-... at some point?
33:14
I, I'm exploring opportunities, but it would have to absolutely be the right fit with the right people. Okay. Right fit, right people. With winning people. Winning people.
33:24
Like, people like Todd Wishneb, who doesn't charge nothing for his Discord. He, he's not doing it. He doesn't, he don't want any part of that. Yeah.
33:31
That, I mean, it's g- you- All the more reason to sign up for his Discord. That's right. Well, this goes against your DNA. This goes against your core fiber. You can't take it that he's not doing any.
33:40
He's a different human being than you. I, I'm, I'm, I'm okay with it. Okay. All right. Yeah, it's, i- i- if, we, d- so let's, let's do not disturb Todd.
33:47
[laughs] Yeah, it, what- Whatever [laughs] Whatever- Whatever you're doing. Yeah. [laughs] Don't... W- what's that term where you don't wanna shake something up? Yeah.
33:53
Like, like, the, the, the, of the, the, the apple cart? Let's keep- If it ain't, if it ain't broke, don't fix it? Is that what you're talking about? Don't, don't overturn the apple cart. [laughs] Yeah.
34:01
Um, okay, what bets have you made in football this year so far? Have you made any? Uh, I made a few select ones. I played on Thanksgiving. I played, I, and the media's killing me on this.
34:14
I played Dallas plus one and a half on Thanksgiving hosting the Eagles. Now $50 fine. Dallas is favored now. If, $40, by the way. And people are, inflation. Yeah. So people are, uh, it's like pizza.
34:25
Like, you, you, you- Yeah... you can't get a pizza for 50 bucks in the, in, in, in some of these food courts anymore. It's like a pie chart. The, it's like $65 now. You do this every year, though. Right.
34:33
You make these bets well in advance. Right. And, and, and then the internet bullies come on and they're like, "What an idiot.
34:38
So much could happen," you know, negative, you know, with, with, with Dallas, and we'll see it again. And, and, like, why would you tie up your money? And, like, uh, tying up the money is, is a good point.
34:47
Do you really wanna tie up your money? But, like, I tell people, I say, "You know, I'm willing to bet you right now $1,000 that you're not gonna be able to get Dallas plus one and a half against Philly."
34:55
Now, you might get Dallas plus four. Dak might get hurt. Mm-hmm. Or Dallas might be a three-point favorite, but just, I think Dallas, the, my unbiased estimator would be pick 'em on that game. What'd you bet week one?
35:08
So week one, I, you know, it's funny because it's all rogue numbers. So I bet Tennessee minus 118. It's long gone. Um, but there's gonna be finds all over the place. Yeah. You're done. Atlanta I bet plus three.
35:18
This is at DraftKings right now. I bet Atlanta plus three, even money. Some might call that even money [laughs] plus 100. Um, against Pittsburgh, I, I think that line should be two, so you got the value getting three.
35:29
But it's only at one book, so I could never give that out to, like, you know, as an official play because it's, because it's only at one rogue book.
35:36
And this is the problem with places like Juice Reel and all these places that are tracking winners. We can find a winner. You know what?
35:43
If Gil Alexander and I just want a, we, if we just wanted to in- invent winning handicappers, we could just sign up a bunch of guys and say, "Well, we're just gonna get a DraftKings account.
35:50
We're just gonna bet every one of these rogue numbers." Like, the Raiders game, uh, against Miami, the total was 41 and a half. Now, Crack doesn't know who the quarterback is.
35:59
I don't either for Miami, but he's not very good. So [laughs] we're gonna go under 41 and a half, although Wills did play very well last year. Yeah. Um, but, like, like, but the number everywhere's 40 and a half.
36:09
How c- how can you possibly let me grade that at 41 and a half? Juice Reel has to fix this, in my opinion. Otherwise, it's just not meaningful. Dr., Dr.
36:16
Bob and I used to have a rule Has to be at three prominent books minimum... three major books. It- it- That's it And that's at a minimum The only way to do it. Exactly. The only fair way to do it.
36:24
And that's what I will do with any group moving forward. Thank you, Stevie. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
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37:23
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
37:38
Numbers game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. We kicked Stevie out so Kelly could come back. How you doing, man? You okay? I'm doing great. Got some soccer bets in. Did you? Got some World Cup bets in.
37:48
Glad you can make good use of the time. That's right, yeah, yeah. You know, well, it's g- making sure Chris Foster's doing his job. Yeah, oh, that's what you're doing there? And then getting soccer bets. Yeah.
37:55
Were you worried that Chris wasn't? Uh, he needs s- he just needs some supervision sometimes, you know? Wow. Wow. Chris, I wouldn't take that sit-down.
38:02
[laughs] Uh, by the way, uh, Djokovic up two sets to none on Fonseca. Fonseca comes back, wins the third set, and now a break point for Zhao early in set number four. Drama. See, I asked you about this.
38:14
I don't think it was on air, I think it was off air. Yeah. But the Djokovic with, like, the seven-foot slide on the clay. Oh, it's fantastic. Like, I w- I w- I wanna know how these guys first start training for that.
38:24
Watch, watch Egor. He's the slider of them all. You're right about his, uh, his getup, though. The, the pants camouflage right into the court. Yeah.
38:31
I don't think Kodar can see the whole b- bottom half of his body It's unfair. It's like when the, when the Eagles go full green, you know? It's just unfair. That's right. Yeah. Unfair advantage. Boise State blue.
38:39
Same thing. Boise State blue. Yeah. Yep. That, though, really, have you ever seen that where they, where you can do it- Yeah... from behind the quarterback?
38:44
It's like you really can't see them when they're moving around sometimes. Who is the Redfield? Eastern Washington? I think I, I think I nailed it. Eastern Washington has a Redfield?
38:53
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, they do, I think. Yeah. I believe so. I don't know if it's Eastern Washington, but I know the field you're talking about. Yes. Yeah. Eastern Washington.
39:00
Um, real quick, do you wanna show that video real quick, or are you gonna tell? Oh my, of course I do. Okay. So first of all, I, I don't know about you. No.
39:07
It, I'm not gonna say it's appointment viewing for me every year, the spelling bee, but, like, I worked at a Scripps station for a very long time, so they build it up. It was kind of that.
39:14
What do you mean you worked at a Scripps station? Scripps, uh, local news. Oh, okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Scripps. I didn't know that's a thing. Yeah. All right.
39:19
Scripps Broadcasting, they own a buncha, uh, television stations around the country. So there's one here in Las Vegas. Um, so I used to watch it almost every year then, and it's just beyond fascinating to me, right?
39:29
Like, these kids spelling these words, like they almost all have the same story, right? The overbearing parents that just, like, make them sit in their room and study a dictionary all day. [laughs] Yeah, that's it.
39:38
And then they're doing, like, the spell it out on their hands. Oh. And I'm like, "I cannot relate to these kids at all," and it's incredible.
39:43
So apparently, yest- it was yesterday, I believe, Gil, and we had a tiebreaker, which I didn't know there was, like, tiebreakers ever in this, and apparently they do a speed round. Oh my God.
39:55
So I cut up a little bit of the video- This, uh... of the speed round. That's a great setup because I didn't understand what I was watching. Yes. So this is a tiebreaker. Watch this kid. Xamenis. X-A-M-E-N-I-S.
40:07
Tar parker. T-A-R P-A-R-K-E-R. Tlachni. T-L-A-C-H-T-L-I. Madokua. M-A-D-O-K-U-A. Richerius. R-I-C-H-E-R-I-U-S. Balintawak. B-A-L-I-N-T-A-W-A-K. Tesseraconter. T-S-S-E-R-A-C-O-N-T-E-R. Torokathapsia.
40:23
T-O-R-O-K-A-T-H-A-P-S-I-A. Rapakevi. R-A-P-A-K-E-V-I. Uayb. Uh, U-A-Y-B. Paremia. P-A-R-E-M-I-A. Melanquet. M-E-L-A-N-Q-U-E-T. Teraglyn. T-E-R-A-G-L-Y-N. Homlyn. H-O-M-L-Y-N.
40:40
Chikungunya. C-H-I-K-U-N-G-U-N-Y-A. Bromocriptine. B-R-O-M-O-C-R-I-P-T-I-N-E. Cushaw. C-U-S-H-A-W. Time! [buzzer] Wow. [audience cheering] Come on, kid. Okay. I like the head nod at the end, all confident. Oh, yeah.
40:56
Like, "Come on," like throw the hands up in the air. You just nailed it. Courtesy of James Sabella for the, uh, video there. I, I have a, I have a beef with that, though. What's that?
41:03
Okay, I understand that they've decided that the speed round is their tiebreaker, but intr- intrinsic, inherent in that tiebreaker, he's got to spell it as quickly as possible, right? Mm-hmm.
41:13
And it's, there is a, there is a line there where he's spelling it so fast, because that's what he's incentivized to do, where I'm not sure he actually...
41:23
Like, I don't know if the human ear can determine if he's saying all the letters or not. So I'm going to... Okay, f- fair. I think fair. Yeah. I have no idea how this works, obviously.
41:31
I mean, I'm gonna g- I think it's a fair point by you. I'm gonna guess that they have it, it, multiple people listening in to check it, and then there's probably some type of review process, right?
41:40
If you're ch- if you're going that quickly. Yeah, just give me a word. Like, you're going that quickly. Pterodactyl. Uh, P-TER- [laughs] And they're like, "Oh, yeah, that's good." Right, yeah, that's good.
41:49
[laughs] Right? Yeah. Just 'cause you hit the button afterward. Yeah. By the way, was there, like, a single word on there that you- By the way, what is pterodactyl? P-E-R-A- No, there's a, there's a P up front, isn't it?
41:56
Oh, yeah, it's P-P-T-E-R-A-D-A-C-T-Y-L. I think you got it. Thank you. I think you got it. The, like- P as in pterodactyl I don't even, much less spelling them, Gil, I didn't recognize a single word that was on there.
42:08
No, I didn't either. I didn't either. It wa- it was interesting, though, the ones that he had to have a pregnant pause on were the shortest ones oftentimes. Yeah.
42:18
Well, my, my favorite one was like the second or third to last, bromatine, which just like looked like, it just sounds like something gym bros are taking. Now the question that- Bromatine...
42:27
the question that all of this begs is, can we bet on this? Oh, I've bet on the spelling bee before. Yeah? Yeah. Who posts that? Oh, no, no, nobody here in the United States.
42:36
[laughs] What is y- what is y- what is your handicap on that? Um. Dare I ask. There wa- I mean, I have not bet it in a decade plus. Yeah.
42:44
So I don't think there was very sharp handicapping going on, besides, uh, besides someone telling me that someone in a regional or whatever- Oh... was absolutely outstanding. [laughs] A regional. Wow.
42:54
You know, d- did work at Scripps, so there were like- Yeah, you, oh, you know your things over there... you know, there was some, yeah, inside chatter going on. Uh, here are the, uh, here are the pending wagers.
43:03
Uh, by the way, Jannik Sinner, minus 120, loser. Iga, though, doing her thing, French Open, plus 275. Uh, Francisco Cerundolo to win quarter number two, plus 650. Those are still alive in terms of the futures.
43:17
Today in tennis, uh, 0 one and one. One was a push. There was only two plays. It was very chalky today. One was a push.
43:24
Did lose on Yulia Starodubtseva, um, so that's minus 1.18 unit back to the, uh, to the kitty there on that one. Uh, you, sir, and of course the Spurs 19 to one. Spurs 19 to one.
43:38
Oh, and I did add a college baseball play, Arkansas at 44 to one, tailing Matt Grisham- Let's go... in the College World Series. Jensen's in, uh, in Morgantown, I think today. Yeah, he's on TV right now. Yeah.
43:50
There you go. Okay. He's talking to- Well, there you go... the Kentucky head coach. There it is. Par- pardon me, I, I gave myself more.
43:56
It's 41, just a little over 41 to one on Arkansas to win the College World Series tailing- Yep... our buddy, Matt Grisham. I am right there with you, my friend. I've got, uh, let's see.
44:07
Tennis parlay, I don't even know if this, maybe you can tell me if this is, uh, done yet. I know Kees is good and Boko's good from yesterday. De Minaur in action right now, I believe, right?
44:16
And then I have no idea on Casper Ruud, so that's still open as far as I'm aware. I did add some college baseball. Arkansas with you to win the College World Series, 40 to one.
44:24
Also bet them to win the regional at plus one to 45, and Oklahoma State to win their regional at plus 175, tailing the fine work of Matt Grisham, Jensen Lewis, the guys we've talked to here over the past couple days about college baseball.
44:38
Uh, Alex Caruso, Western Conference finals MVP still up for this series, 50 to one. And then I have Daren Peterson first overall pick, plus 350. Cameron Boozer, third overall pick, minus 125.
44:51
And then we've got soccer bets, World Cup. [laughs] Taylor Paul and friends. Just hot off the press. Hot off the press, just bet these. Uh, France to win World Cup, five to one. France to reach quarterfinals, minus 125.
45:02
Portugal to reach quarterfinals, plus 125, and Colombia to win Group K at plus 260. The others that I had written down I was gonna play, Gil, I could not find that sweet seven to one that Paul Carr had on Scotland.
45:16
Had it, yeah. Best I could find was five to one on that. That's all right. So I don't know if I'm going for that or not. Um, to answer your question about your, uh, parlay- Yeah...
45:23
De Minaur is up a set, but he's down a break in the second set. No. So it looks like that's gonna get knotted up by, uh, Jakub Menšík. And then Casper Ruud down a break in the first set. No, Casper. [laughs] Sorry.
45:34
By the way, João Fonseca breaks in the second, in the fourth set. We could be two to two pretty soon here. I jinxed Djokovic. Oh, boy.
45:42
Paul- I had that, I had that real smart question for you about the, uh, how much he had to learn through his career- Yeah... how to play five setters- Yeah... with Djokovic, and now it's like he, he was up, what was he?
45:51
I think he was up two-nothing when I asked you that. Yeah, you jinxed it. Yeah. Um, we'll see. He is, he has ways to, to amend. Uh, Paul Carr, Champions League bets.
46:01
Arsenal to beat PSG at plus 220 in tandem with both teams to score no at plus 105, meaning someone's gotta have zero at the end of, of regulation and, and added time.
46:14
Someone's gotta have the nil going for him to win that. Both teams to score no, meaning that both teams will not have zero. It's a very, it's a word puzzle is what that is. Mm-hmm.
46:25
Uh, Paul Carr's World Cup bets in case you missed them. France to win the title, plus 750. Ecuador to win Group E, four to one. Colombia to win group T, uh, Group K, pardon me. God, Group K, plus 250.
46:37
Panama to advance, plus 225. Scotland to finish last in Group C. He added that one today, seven to one. Raphinha to win the Golden Boot, 33 to one, and Mikel Oyarzabal,
46:47
I got chastised for that earlier, to win the Golden Boot, 30 to one. Christopher Nkunku, the Bear, Jeremy Doku to win the Golden Boot, 80 to one. Belgium to reach the quarters, two to one.
46:57
Spain to reach the quarters, minus 145. Portugal to reach the quarters, he loves this one the best, plus 125. Morocco to win Group C, plus 325.
47:04
Spain and France both to reach the final, they're on the same side of the bracket, tandem bets, plus 220 on Spain, plus 300 on France. Highest scoring Group E, Group E, six to one.
47:14
And today he added for his World Cup bets Ivory Coast to win Group E, seven to one. Ivory Coast to be the top AFCON team at six to one.
47:21
And England round of elimination quarterfinals, round of elimination quarterfinals, plus 375. Also, baseball play from him. Gerrit Cole, AL Cy Young winner at 150 to one. Taking a flyer on the Yankees ace.
47:34
And then WNBA adjusted season win total going against his pre-flop play, Chicago Sky under 19 and a half wins from Felika. Fezzik, Mets under 78 and a half wins, adjusted season win total in baseball for Stevie.
47:48
Mets under 78 and a half wins as he adds that to a, uh, roster of season win totals pre-flop and adjusted. Thank you, sir. Appreciate it, man. Hey, thank you. Oh, thank you. Bogey for JJ Spa, no bueno. God. Uh.
48:02
Gonna golf out right home. Sorry about that. Prop Points is next. Nick Whelan, Jeff Erickson, enjoy from VSAN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
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A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
