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May 2, 2024
A Numbers Game | May 2, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | May 2, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:42
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. [upbeat rock music] Good morning to you.
0:11
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. We got there eventually. Fourth word, fifth word. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Binlin. What's happening?
0:21
Not much, man. How you doing? Good. Live from Bar Canada at the D here in downtown Las Vegas. On the show today, Bill Krackenberg, the return of the Crack Man. That's right. Here at the, uh, at the table at the D.
0:32
What is, it's be- it's been two, three week- before the Masters. Is that? Oh, that's true. Yeah. He hasn't been with us. That's right. Uh, for various reasons, some happier than others.
0:42
Um, but he'll be with us here to do, uh, give us a full hour at the desk, at the table, at the shield, whatever we're calling it here at the D, Bar Canada.
0:50
Uh, and, uh, we have Peter Fornatale on the Kentucky Derby, my old buddy from the, uh, Money Players podcast. We'll talk 150th Run for the Roses. And Al Bernstein, Kelly, original VSiN host,
1:02
boxing aficionado for so many years at ESPN and Showtime.
1:06
He's making a big career move in, in his boxing broadcasting game, and he'll be here, uh, to talk about, uh, Canelo Alvarez and Jaime M- uh, Jaime Munguia for the super middleweight title of the world. Let's go.
1:16
At T-Mobile, my backyard right here in Vegas. Always- Horse racing and boxing, ladies and gentlemen, if the coveted 18 to 49-year-old demographic is what you're looking for, you've come to the right place.
1:27
[laughs] That's, that's right. [laughs] Um, uh, coming up next, we'll talk about the rise of communism across the world. [laughs] And then bare-fisted boxing after that. Uh, before we, uh, talk NBA...
1:39
Oh, were you gonna say something? You threw me off something. Sorry. No, no, that was good. [laughs] Um, before we talk NBA here, obviously two games last night, blowout fashion again.
1:46
By the way, the NBA playoffs is very much thus far like March Madness, which is to say there were moments where it was great, but those moments were completely trumped by so many other just ridiculous blowout ho-hum results.
2:02
But we do, we, we do have four game sixes, two today, two tomorrow. We'll get to those momentarily. I just wanna, uh- Yeah, it feels like very... I, I hear you. Yeah.
2:10
I, if you're a casual f- uh, fan, it feels very much like, "Oh, one night's great, one night blah, one night blah, blah, blah." Yeah. Yeah, from a non, I'm talking from a non-betting perspective, right. Um,
2:19
okay, before we get to that, postscript on the Guardians. You know the Guardians beat the Astros in extra innings last night. Obviously. Because of course they did. In retrospect, that was like the lock of the night.
2:31
Right, right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Like we should have said that. Like of course they're gonna win. Should have hammered the Guardians yesterday, yeah. Yeah. Uh, it went to extras.
2:36
Of course they won in extras, and guess who got doubled up to end the game? Victor Caratini. It's just you can't make it up.
2:43
T- the o- the, the best comment I think was from Wishnev, Todd Wishnev, who on this show, for those who, uh, are familiar with, uh, who are keen observers of this show, the greatest bad beat story of all time in my opinion is Todd Wishnev's, uh, Yom Kippur massacre story, which was not an actual massacre, so no one panic.
3:03
Uh, but he, that's what he dubbed this bad beat, and it had to do with, I'll just give the, uh, the ten-second thumbnail here. It had to do with he had USC in some game.
3:11
They impossibly lost a game w- on a Saturday, which happened to be Yom Kippur, the holiest of Jewish holidays, and, uh, the quarterback for, uh, Arizona State that killed him was a kid by the name of Mike Berkevich.
3:23
And so he endures this bad beat by this kid, Mike Berkevich, and then two weeks later, one of his buddies emails him and is like, "Hey, uh, are you familiar with the football player Mike Berkevich?"
3:33
And Todd's like, "Are you messing with me? Like, really?" Like he us- he didn't use the word messing, right? He's like, "Are you, seriously, are you messing with me?"
3:39
He goes, "No, no, I'm here at Starbucks right down the road, and I'm like with this guy's grandfather, Mike Berkevich's grandfather." And Todd's like, "What? I'm coming down there."
3:48
[laughs] So he ends up having this talk with Mike Berkevich's grandfather, the kid that crushed him- Yeah... in the bad beat, and turns out that Berkev- he, he learns in this conversation that Berkevich is Jewish.
3:59
He's like, "Wait a minute, you're Mike Berkevich's grandfather, and he's Jewish, and he was playing on Yom Kippur?" [laughs] Like nuts. He's, Sandy Koufax he was not.
4:08
So anyway, Todd says to him, he goes, "The only thing that could make this any better is if you get a text from somebody two weeks from now that Victor Caratini's grandfather is hanging out in Starbucks- [laughs]...
4:18
and you find out that his wife's last name was Goldstein. [laughs] That's the only thing that could make this even more ridiculous. All right. That's good.
4:24
Uh, NBA, last night Luka gets it done in a big way for the Mavs, and the Mavs beat the Clip Show by 30. The Clippers without Kawhi Leonard. Is it even necessary to say the Clippers without Kawhi Leonard?
4:37
I feel like the baseline ought to be, ought to just be like Clippers, and then if he plays I should mention it.
4:42
Uh, y- d- yes, I agree with you, although would I be shocked if, if he tried to do the, the hobbled hero return for game six and be completely useless on the court? No, I wouldn't be shocked by that.
4:53
35, 10, and 7 from Luka last night. 30-point Mavericks win. They take a three to two lead in their best of seven first round series against the Clippers.
5:01
They go back to Dallas for game six where the Mavericks are like a eight-point favorite in this game now- Yeah... uh, in game six. And the Celtics, uh, no surprise, wrapping things up against Miami.
5:09
They beat the Heat, um, by 34. [laughs] They wait for the winner of the Cavs and the Magic. The Heat without Jaime Jaquez, as we talked about yesterday on the show, so it just got r- even more ridiculous in that series.
5:22
So in essence, what we have now in the NBA playoffs is, uh, two teams got swept, the Suns and the Pelicans out west. Two teams went down in gentleman sweeps, if you will, five-game series.
5:32
That was the Lakers and the Heat now.
5:34
And then we do have four that are going to game sixes, Kelly, uh, beginning with two tonight, and I'm curious your thoughts on this, um, on all of these really, the two tonight and the two tomorrow.
5:44
By the way, the Nuggets and the T-Wolves will begin on Saturday, the only one of the, uh, conference semifinal series that has been determined, that has been locked in already.
5:54
Um, but tonight it's the Knicks and the Sixers. It's the Bucks and the Pacers. It begins with the Bucks and the Pacers. Remember, the Pacers are up three to two, but this is back in Milwaukee. Excuse me, pardon me.
6:03
This is in India- Indiana, I should say. And it's their shot, right? If you're up 3-1 in a series, but you don't have games in five and seven at your place, it's kind of a faux 3-1 lead. Mm-hmm.
6:16
Because you really only have the one game where you're gonna be a favorite, and this is it for the Pacers.
6:20
Eight-point favorites tonight against a Bucks team, I'm seeing nine right now in some spots, against a Bucks team that at this moment, and I do mean this moment,
6:31
is a team that is not prepared to have Giannis or Dame, but there's a long time between now and tip-off. Yeah, there really is. I think you're, I think you're saying it well.
6:40
I think there's, uh, I'm not expecting anything, but man, I think that every, every day that goes on here and that every, every game, uh, that this series goes on, there's a better and better chance we see...
6:53
I think we're gonna see Giannis before we see Dame. Like, I, I, I think Dame's could be a little bit further out. But he gotta show up tonight if he is. Yeah, right, yeah. I- it's, uh, it, it could happen.
7:02
Um, I wouldn't be shocked by it. I think from a betting, betting perspective, the only way I'd be looking still is Milwaukee.
7:07
I think this, this series, it, it has shifted a little bit in th- i- in just the sense that, that, that the Pacers are th- they're so mediocre.
7:15
I was loaded up on them on Sunday when it was kind of just after Dame's going out. Okay, you can bet against the lowly Bucks then. Bucks have kind of gotten things together these la- uh, uh, y- you know, the last game.
7:27
Middleton looking great. Portis didn't get ejected. He's looking good. [laughs] You know, if he can stay on the court, he's a big factor. So I, it would, it would...
7:34
I could not imagine laying eight points with the Pacers. The defense is just not there, uh, for them to cover a big number like this. So I, it would be Bucks or pass. Nothing for me on this one, though, tonight.
7:43
If, if someone said, "Shouldn't my entire handicap of this game be perusing Twitter and Googling anything I can find about Giannis, trying to read the tea leaves?" Yeah.
7:53
"And if I come to the conclusion that this guy's a go, I would get ahead of this by taking the points." Yeah, yeah, yeah. I, I mean, that's what I'll be doing this afternoon for sure. That's the- Yeah...
8:01
that's, that will be the only way I will end up on Milwaukee tonight.
8:05
Um, I'll just remind everybody, though, we did see Giannis try to come back hobbled last year, and like, he s- he's a guy that relies so much on his athleticism that anything, any lack of explosion or anything, the guy can't be a jump shooter.
8:18
He's not a jump shooter. So you ma- if you b- if you put him in that role- Sure... it makes it a lot tougher. So I, that would be my only hesitation.
8:25
Yes, I would s- if I thought, if he was coming back though, I would think it's because he's healthy enough that he thinks he can do something on the court. No, that's a great point.
8:33
It's, it's not as if a, y- let's say KD, when KD was in this similar situation, it's not as if you can make the case, "Well, he'll just sit behind the three-point line- Right... and fire in threes." This is not that guy.
8:42
Yeah, yeah. I mean, I think- Yeah... even, even when Dame got hurt in that game, right? I mean, w- the end of that game, it was, "Hey, leave me out there. I'll just be a decoy." Like, because he can't, right?
8:52
Giannis can't really do that. If you see him- No... hobbling over the court, it's like, let him go. Go ahead. It's fine. Go ahead. And then of course, it's game six tonight back in Philly.
9:00
The Sixers in unbelievable fashion, uh, erasing a six-point deficit with less than 30 seconds left in game five to miraculously force overtime courtesy of the four-point play and then a game-tying three from Tyrese Maxey.
9:14
Seven points from him in that short span, and then they end up beating the Knicks in overtime, and now they're on their home court.
9:21
They are three-point favorites trying to force a game seven back at Madison Square Garden. Yeah, no, there was no immediate bets for me after the game five, Gil. I needed a minute to, to sit on that.
9:33
I especially had the under in game five, so that was, that was a pretty bad beat going to overtime. Um, it would be l- it, it'd be lean under.
9:40
I don't think I'm gonna end up on a bet on it just 'cause this, this number has moved a few points now, uh, total down, yeah, down to 199 and a half, 200, uh, most places. I'm, I will be on the Knicks.
9:51
I haven't made the bet yet. I'm going to make it here, uh, during the show. I will be on the Knicks tonight. I'm going back to it.
9:55
Think I needed a day to think about it a little bit, but man, the, the way Joel Embiid was just gassed at the end of that game.
10:02
A- the, everybody on the 76ers b- besides Tyrese Maxey did not look great, looked out of sorts, looked like they were ready for the series to be over.
10:12
I know it's gonna be a tough mental challenge for the Knicks to get, get back and play some great basketball tonight after taking that terrible beat at, uh, at home.
10:20
But I, I think they're, I think they're still just the, the better-prepared team right now to close out this series. If they lose tonight, I will not be betting on them in game seven.
10:28
I think they lose this and this goes back to Madison Square Garden. Oh, really? I, I think that means the Sixers have probably found something a little bit, and who knows what happens in a game seven back in the Garden.
10:37
Think it'll be a Knicks crowd tonight, or is that done for one? So the, what, what did you, you had the ownership group buy up a bunch of tickets for the 76ers to give out to [laughs] locals, I believe.
10:47
So that is, uh, it's an interesting move. I don't know how you feel about this, like, this whole story. I have no p- I have no problem with any of it.
10:55
Like, I have no problem with players complaining about the lack of home fans. Oh, no. I have no problem with home fans selling their tickets for five to 10 times more than what they're worth.
11:07
I don't really care about that. It's fine. I'm a Washington Commodes fan. That place has been overrun by road team fans for 10 to 15 years. Yeah. And is it desperate that the ownership group had to do this?
11:19
Sure, but I don't care that they're spending their money doing this either. But I gotta tell you, it kind of matters 'cause before that it was RFK Stadium, the Theater of Thrills, and it was a totally different story.
11:27
I mean, it- Yeah... it's, it's a shock to Philly because they're supposed to be one of the great sports towns in America is the thing.
11:33
Uh, we'll talk about tomorrow's games obviously, uh, a lot more tomorrow, but those are the initial NBA thoughts. We'll come back, NBA exactas and, am I reading this right, NFL power rankings. Post-Bowl.
11:43
Our first of the calendar year post Super Bowl. Next, Numbers Game, VSi, the sports betting network.
11:48
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13:02
A- vsin.com/subscribe. Gil, you know how excited people get when they, when they're at a basketball game or something, they're throwing out free T-shirts to the crowd? Yeah, yeah.
13:10
Just imagine one of those T-shirts says, "One month of VSiN free." Boom. Promo code ANG. We get tweets @BeatingTheBook. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback.
13:21
John Sepulveda, "Can't believe you made it through the first segment without mentioning that Iga is in action." She is. Semifinals, Madrid. But she's up against Maddie Keys. She should take care of business.
13:30
The big one is, uh, Rybakina and Sabalenka later today.
13:33
Logic3227, "If you're, uh, talking all-time bad beats, don't forget me losing a bet on a PSG soccer game 'cause one of PSG's players' families was being robbed at their home at gunpoint during the game.
13:43
Still the craziest thing I've ever seen in a game." Wow. [laughs] Geez. I mean, I was, I was watching that yesterday. There were, there were some, some missed opportunities, uh, for sure on the PSG side.
13:54
[laughs] I don't, I don't know if there was something more specific I missed. Clone Bone, "We may have lost the Guardians bet, but you don't have to make this a complete loss for your audience.
14:02
Consolation prize, Sushi plays Nay." We talked about it. I was gonna give it out if they won. That was the grand prize. I was gonna give it out- Not the consolation prize, apparently. Yeah...
14:09
Jimmy Lopez, "The good old Mike Bercovici Yom Kippur massacre." Love hearing that story. Jack Larkin, "Assuming not, but does Sinner with- Sinner's withdrawal from Madrid with a hip warrant any Roland Garros futures?"
14:20
Well, if the hip is serious enough to take him out of it, absolutely it would. I mean, right now this is kind of falling Djokovic's way, 'cause Nadal is, you know, not the Nadal of old, obviously.
14:35
Sinner's got the hip issue. Alcaraz looked terrible yesterday. So, like, Joker's sitting on the sidelines being like, "Yep, this looks pretty good right now." [laughs] That guy, man. Is that...
14:44
I think that's a great question, though, just overall basic tennis when you're seeing injuries happen. Like, is that where you, you put more weight into it when a guy is w- withdrawing from a tournament?
14:55
Yeah, the problem is you don't know if it's real or not in tennis, alt- right? Like, Sin- Sinner obviously this is a legit injury, but you just don't know if it's gonna take him to that point. Mm-hmm.
15:04
Um, and that's always the problem. Most injuries in tennis are really nebulous. You're like, "Is she just pull- or is he just pulling out of this tournament- Right...
15:12
'cause he wants a little more rest for the next one that's bigger," or whatever. So there's a lot of that that goes on in your head. But this is a, Sinner's a young guy.
15:19
He's obviously been ha- h- this is obviously a legit injury. The question is, does it take him through, you know, the next c- does it take him through Rome? Does it take him all the way into Paris? We'll see.
15:30
Um, couple more here, by the way. This is from, doo-ba-doo, Russ Hardin, "Well, Gil, not only am I a lifelong Cleveland fan, I also bet them. I also had Baltimore.
15:39
So I've been numb since Kimbrel blew two games, and Cleveland being Cleveland, all things said, it was a great month of baseball." It was a great month of baseball.
15:45
By the way, a lot of people making a big deal about the O- Kimbrel blowing two games. That's baseball. Just like the Guardians losing that game last night was, or two nights ago, is baseball. You know?
15:54
Like, th- those things happen to every team. And again- Yeah... the people who are complaining about the Orioles, no one was as lu- unlucky as the Guardians and the Braves.
16:00
Guardians lost their best pitcher to Tommy John surgery, Shane Bieber, as the Braves did with Spencer Strider, and then the Guardians lost a game to rain, and the Braves lost two to rain.
16:10
So there's no other team that has a, has a case to be unluckier than those. Um, Dan Goodwin, "What a ride. 50 to 1. Shaking my head."
16:17
And then, uh, Nick Kendhammer, "Not sure I wanted to listen to, uh, yesterday's podcast of the show knowing the nature of it, but God, I love your storytelling.
16:24
The detail of when you talk literally makes me feel like I'm there living the ups and downs with you. I truly am sorry, as I had no skin in the game." Oh, Nick, that's very kind of you to say. Hope everybody
16:34
enjoyed the retelling anyway. NBA Finals exact outcome. Kelly, uh, I was mentioning the other day, I'd bet one of these. You could actually get four to one on the... Or no, you could actually get better.
16:43
Plus 425 on what I got at plus 375. That's the Nuggets beating the Celtics. Uh, that price is, uh, exists at DraftKings.
16:51
Only the Celtics beating the Nuggets is shorter at four to one, and if you ask yourself, "Wow, really? The Celtics are shorter than the Nuggets?"
16:57
The reason for that simply is that their path to get to the finals is easier, and therefore shorter than the opposite, the Nuggets beating the Celtics, Nuggets having a more difficult path, uh, path out west.
17:09
After that, it's all Celtics over opponents, and that makes sense, again, because of the nature of the Eastern Conference field right now. Celtics to beat the Thunder, plus 650. Celtics to beat the T-Wolves, 10 to 1.
17:21
Celtics to beat the Mavericks, 12 to 1. Um, and then after the Nuggets beating the Knicks, it's all Celtics on the other side. T-Wolves to beat the Celtics, 18 to 1. Thunder beating the Celtics. You get the idea.
17:31
Mavericks to beat the Celtics. And that makes sense mathematically. Makes complete sense. Is there a bet here for you? Yeah, I think it's interesting.
17:37
I did bet the, uh, I have the Mavericks in an, uh, Mavericks over the Celtics. I bet at the beginning of the playoffs. I remember that. Yeah, I bet at the beginning of the playoffs.
17:47
I didn't take the Celtics over the Mavericks [laughs] 'cause there was such a ridiculous price dis- uh, discrepancy here in town between the two. Um, I still think 12 to 1, like, I like it. I think it...
17:57
And I think it's b- I think the time would be now, uh, for you to make that bet if it's... I, I, you saw the Mavericks team I saw last night.
18:05
Luka Dončić- By the way, I think he's pl- playing the same games that LeBron plays. I love these NBA, uh, mind games where it's like, "Oh, I don't know if I'm gonna be back to the Lakers."
18:14
Luka at sh- at shoot around yesterday will be like, "Oh, I've been dealing with this illness, and the knee's not great." And then he's had by far his best game of the series. [laughs] Shooting from the, from the rafters.
18:23
Right. [laughs] Yeah. Um, I- that would be the one I'd be most interested in. I'm, yeah, I'm wrapped up in this market, though. I've got Thunder and Celtics, uh, both ways.
18:31
I- that would be awesome if those two met in the finals. Um, and then I have the Mavericks over the s- uh, over the Celtics, so I'd have to do some hedging, I guess, in that situation.
18:39
If someone said right now, though, I get it, you've got those priced, but Thunder to beat Celtics 18 to 1, and then Celtics to beat Thunder s- plus 650, would you say yes, bet them?
18:47
I like the Celtics over the Mavericks 12 to 1 best. That's on me. That's your best one. Yeah, that would be, that would be my favorite one.
18:52
I have absolutely no problem with anybody, anybody thinking the way you're thinking, though, and saying, uh, Nuggets, Nuggets and Celtics are meeting, uh, meeting in the finals. You can't convince me otherwise.
19:02
In the, in the year of, again, UConn, South Carolina, Scottie Scheffler, and Nelly Corta, I got the Nuggets over the Celtics. Yeah.
19:10
A- a- and look, the way I view it is, is the Sixers and/or Knicks could give the Celtics some issues, but I think it's very likely the C- Celtics are representing the Eastern Conference the NBA finals.
19:22
I'm excited for the second round of the, of the Western Conference. I think there are four really good teams. I should, I should shut up right now. I have so much Maverick series stuff. What am I talking about?
19:32
[laughs] There hopefully, Gil, will be four really good teams- [laughs]... facing off in the semi or the second round here. How's JVT doing? We got a wellness check on JVT? Yeah, I know.
19:42
It's one of those situations you just don't text each other. You don't text him. Like, Zach and I were both on the Mavs yesterday. Yeah. Assuming it's JVT wasn't. You just don't text each other.
19:49
Ladies and gentlemen, NFL power rankings. Do we have an intro? I don't know. It's been a few minutes. We do not. Yeah, we'll, we'll just move along. We- All right. Now. [upbeat rock music] Plugging in. Plugging in.
20:01
107.5 The Bone. [laughs] Um, okay. Me first, you first? You, you first. This is a, this is an interesting exercise.
20:10
It is interesting because we h- honestly, you're just, you're, you're playing off the drift of last year. Yep.
20:16
And then you're trying to convince yourself that something mattered in the draft enough, you know, kind of thing. And we're, we're still just going same old power rankings like we've always done.
20:25
This isn't, this isn't- Yeah... from a odds perspective or betting- No... perspective right now. All right, one, Kansas City. Sorry, you doing anything else, I don't know what you're doing.
20:34
I don't know if you know this, but they won the Super Bowl. I, I mean, I'm, I'm... A- at what week during the season do you think one of us could possibly change that? Um- Like, after what we saw last year.
20:45
I think we've learned our lesson. Right. After what we saw last season. Yeah.
20:49
I feel like it would have to take to, like, week five or week six, it, when they're, like, one and five or something f- like that for me to move them. Xavier Worthy, they traded up to draft him in the first round.
20:58
The lineage of Tyreek to Kadarius to Xavier Worthy is intact. Chiefs, number one. Niners are number two. I know there's talk about Aiyuk and Deebo, but I still got the Niners at number two.
21:10
Uh, the Bengals are the wild card here, and I threw them in at number three 'cause Joe Burrow is, Joe Burrow is walking through that door. Give me the Bengals at three.
21:17
And then it's Ravens at four, 'cause the Ravens are just always good at football. They do everything right. Eagles are five. The Lions making their highest appearance for me in the last year, six.
21:28
Congratulations, Lions fans. Uh, Bills fall to seven, but it's still Josh Allen. And then it's Texans, Dolphins, Packers. Packers make the top 10 for me, but those are my top 10 right now.
21:38
I have no idea what to do with the back end. The one thing I'm shocked at on yours is that you have the Eagles ranked higher than me. [laughs] 'Cause I was sit- Yeah...
21:47
I was sitting there yesterday, and I'm like, I'm like, "I, I like, I like the Eagles still. Like, I think they're gonna bounce back from last year. Yeah. I love the pieces that they added in the off-season.
21:55
I know-" You notice I don't have the Cowboys in there, though. No, you don't. You don't. No. And I don't have, I don't have them in mine either.
22:00
The ba- I found the ba- I, I mean, we, I feel like we say this every year during the regular season, too, but the, the back half of this was not easy. No. It was not easy for me.
22:07
I had Chiefs, 49ers, I, I'm a big Josh Allen guy, sorry. Bills will s- always be up there for me. I went number three for them still. Um, Ravens, Bengals, flip a coin. You could put them either way, I think.
22:19
I went Ravens, uh, and then Bengals. Uh, but you know, like you said, Joe Burrow back, I'm high on the Bengals. Lions, same here, as high as they're pretty much ever been for me. Number six, Texans.
22:29
I believe in, I believe in the CJ, uh, the CJ Stroud greatness once again. Uh, seven for me, then I went Eagles, and, uh, then I'm like, "Okay, who else in the NFC?"
22:38
I don't believe in these two teams as much as seemingly some other people do, but Rams, Packers, nine, 10 for me. Rams, wow. Without Aaron Donald, huh? Okay.
22:46
Take it for what it's worth, horse racing, Kentucky Derby with Peter Fornatale next. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:00
Numbers Game live from Bar Canada at the D, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. Producer number nine, so much more than a producer. Bouncer. What else do you do around here? Bouncer, producer.
23:14
Clean up ashtrays. Clean up ashtrays. Make- Get water bottles... makes you a drink if you want one. That's right, yeah. [laughs] Yeah, does it all. Uh- Need a screwdriver this morning? Gotcha.
23:22
[laughs] Ladies and gentlemen, it is the 150th Run for the Roses on Saturday, the fastest two minutes in sports, the Kentucky Derby. First of the three Triple Crown races.
23:31
Uh, we bring in my old friend to not only talk Derby, but also to talk beyond, uh, specifically about the Preakness.
23:37
It's Peter Fornatale, everybody, host of the Money Players podcast, US analyst for Sky Sports Racing, and he comes to us courtesy of the Progressive guest line, and has one of the great Twitter handles of all time,
23:50
@loomsboldly. Peter, how you doing, man? I am great.
23:54
If you're a horse racing person and you're not super excited at this time as we're on the eve of this 150th Kentucky Derby, if that don't get your fire going, your wood is wet, as I like to say. Okay.
24:06
Whatever you just said, awesome. [laughs] Uh, give us, give us the, uh, give us the, the origin, for those who don't know, of your Twitter handle, loomsboldly. Let's start there.
24:18
It harkens back to one of the great race callers, maybe the greatest race caller of all time in America, a guy named Tom Durkin, and he would have these marvelous little turns of phrase.
24:29
And one that I can recall him using on at least a few occasions when a horse was sort of making that move on the turn, and you could tell they were full of run, and it was just a matter of time before they exploded to the front, that he would say that the horse looms boldly.
24:42
So I can remember, for example- Love it... Coronado's Quest looms boldly at the eighth pole. That kind of thing. Looms boldly. I love that. Okay.
24:49
Uh, Derby's obviously, uh, Louisville, uh, Churchill Downs, then the Preakness at Pimlico in Baltimore, and then this year, the Belmont is at Saratoga. You will be there for all of them.
25:02
Before we get to the Derby, you have some Preakness thoughts and bets to consider. Yeah, it's a really interesting year because there's a new bet, a Preakness future wager.
25:14
It's a parimutuel future, so you're not getting these prices locked in, but it's going on right now. So if you have two... There's two different ways of expressing this opinion, I think.
25:24
If you love a horse like Fierceness, maybe tipping my hand to who we're gonna be talking about in a minute, you have an opportunity not just to bet him on Saturday.
25:32
But if you, like me, think he might really be the goods, you can get ahead of the game and get a much better price betting him in the Preakness future wager because there are a lot of doubters out there with this horse, despite his obvious merits.
25:45
So you have a chance to do that. Uh, if you think you wanna bet the don't pass line on these Derby horses going forward, you could take a horse like Bob Baffert's Mooth in that bet.
25:55
That would be another wise guy way to play it. Honestly, I'm gonna check the markets.
25:59
If the prices are good enough, I may look to Dutch those two as an interesting way to maybe build up a little bit of equity before the Preakness in two weeks time in Baltimore.
26:09
But yeah, wherever you bet your horse racing, look for that Preakness future wager. I put on the Lily shirt, uh, in honor of it. [laughs] Is, is Fierceness the only horse that could win the Triple Crown, in your opinion?
26:23
I believe yes, because it's, even for Fierceness, it's gonna be especially difficult because you have these Bob Baffert horses waiting in the wings for Baltimore, and then New York, Saratoga, in five weeks time.
26:38
So for a horse to win this year, you've gotta be better than usual, 'cause you have such a high quality of opposition.
26:43
At the same time, that's why I like this Preakness future bet for Fierceness, because people know this, and therefore I think his price is going to be inflated in that market.
26:52
And he may just be that brilliant and that good. Yeah. But you, just to clarify, you are advocating the, the Preakness bet, but not necessarily the Triple Crown bet. We don't get enough bang for our buck on that, do we?
27:03
You, you know, you had it the year you, you wanted to have it. I, I- Yeah... I don't remem- I thought it was, was it Pharaoh? Was it back in-' American Pharoah. Yeah.
27:11
It hadn't happened in the 36 years, 37 years or whatnot, and people started to think it was impossible, ignoring how easily it could have happened all those years. You know- That's right...
27:19
you guys talk on the shows all the time about how after the fact, people act like these things couldn't have gone any other way, whether it's NFL Plinko, to throw out the term, or, uh, you know, all the random stuff in other sports.
27:30
But, you know, you gotta look at the big picture, and there was at a time great value in that bet.
27:33
This time around, I think the Preakness future bet is probably a, a safer way to fly, though, you know, it's all depends on price. I haven't seen a price on him at any of the books to win the Triple Crown.
27:43
But my inclination would be keep it simple. Bet him on Saturday. Bet him in the Preakness future wager. Yeah, that was... I'm glad you brought that up. That was ou- that was my complete Triple Crown go-to, um,
27:56
leading up to American Pharoah, right? In the, let's, what was it? 22, 37 years. In the 37 years between Affirmed in 1978 and American Pharoah in 2015, everyone's like, "Ah, no horse has won the Triple Crown," right?
28:11
"In all these years." We counted it up. And yes, the close calls in retrospect were abundant, but no one ever looked at it that way.
28:19
And so that was, uh, that was such a, "It finally happened, and it happened again," uh, with Justified, if I'm not mistaken, as well, right? That's right. So, uh, we've had it twice. Okay, Derby.
28:28
Then how do you approach this this Saturday? It's really interesting. So Fierceness is the horse to really start the discussion with. He's had five races. In three of them, he's been brilliant.
28:39
In two of them, he's been absolutely terrible. A lot of people are sort of taking the master of the obvious approach. "Well, it's been a good race, bad race pattern, so maybe he's due for a bad race."
28:49
I don't look at it that way. Every wise guy I talk to says the same thing. They say, "If he runs his race, he wins." To me, okay, let's look. He's run his race three out of five times.
29:02
Let's be conservative and say then there's only a 50% chance he runs his race, and then he wins. So shouldn't he be even money? I think my math is right on this.
29:11
[laughs] I was told there would be no math, but I'm bringing it up anyway. But to me, this is a horse that probably has about a 50/50 chance.
29:20
And yet, in the parimutuel markets, I think he's gonna be no shorter than 2/1 and maybe 5/2 or 3/1.
29:26
I just think it's a classic case where you take this value, you put it in your pocket, um, a- a- and, and you move on with life. Who are the throwouts? Which horses are the throwouts, in your opinion? There are, uh...
29:38
It's easier to go through the ones I think can realistically win- Okay... because it's a short list. Okay. So a great case for Sierra Leone. I think, you know, if this is in the 50% chance Fierceness doesn't show up.
29:50
Catching Freedom, another one I think could win the race if everything goes his way. Honor Marie, another horse I would put on that list.
29:58
I would say another horse, very, uh, unexposed, up and coming, only three races, could win, logically. Just a Touch is a runner I would put in that category.
30:08
And then the last one is a total wildcard coming to us from Japan, Forever Young. Japan have shown they can win these big races all over the world.
30:16
They haven't done it yet in the Derby, but, uh, this trainer, Yahagi-san we call him, adding the honorific, he's won Breeders' Cup races. Only a matter of time before he wins the Derby.
30:25
I don't like this horse for it, for very technical reasons w- I won't, uh, belabor you with, but it, it's a scenario that wouldn't surprise me in the least, let's put it that way.
30:34
I'm looking at the weather, Peter, in Lu- in Louisville, and it's like there's rain Friday, and then rain Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, but Saturday no rain. Um, how would that affect...
30:46
Like, if you found out, if that shifted, and you found out it was just gonna be a downpour, um, how would that affect your handicap here? Fierceness is a speed horse. Speed horses are generally advantaged in wet tracks.
31:02
It would increase the chance that he needs to break well, but I think that's a prerequisite of him winning anyway. So it wouldn't really change my handicap of the Derby.
31:12
It would probably make it a little bit harder on the closers, 'cause then they gotta run through that mud, dirt getting kicked up in their face, et cetera.
31:19
So it would probably actually strengthen Fierceness's position in the race, in my view, in a slight way, but I'm still crossing fingers that it doesn't rain, just 'cause it's a lot more fun over there under the twin spires when you get a beautiful day.
31:32
[laughs] Which is your favorite, by the way, of the three Triple Crown races to attend? Just from a enjoyment standpoint, whi- which is it for you? It's gotta be the Belmont Stakes.
31:41
I've been to every one since, uh, 1996, excepting the COVID year. Always bring a great crew of friends. You know, I work in the industry now. I have the In The Money Players podcast.
31:51
We have the In The Money Media YouTube channel. You get tons more content if you're interested in Derby and racing there. But Belmont Day is a day where I try to get back to my roots. I wanna be a fan.
32:02
I wanna sit with more casual observers out there by the turn, and, uh, you know, sneak in some cocktails, and, and sit there, and, and eat sandwiches, and, and shoot the breeze with my pals.
32:13
It is, it is a, a back to my roots day, and I absolutely love it. It'll be so different and interesting with it being up in Saratoga this year, but I am, uh, extremely excited to see how it all shakes out.
32:22
Were you ever an infield at Pimlico guy for the Preakness? I did it twice. Yeah. I did it twice. Yeah.
32:28
And the second time, there was a blackout, and I ended up leaving early, and we were in the nearest bar we could find watching it on TV, and I said never again. Never again.
32:37
It's gotten a lot more civilized out there, though. It's not, it's not the running of the porta potties, uh- [laughs]... that we used to see. It, it, it's definitely a, a bit more of a civilized situation.
32:47
But yeah, so n- these days, though, I, we, we actually do the proper hospitality there, and it's a great, it's a great event. They're all, they're all terrific. These are the days when racing really matters.
32:57
Even a casual sports fan, these are the days to tip your toe into the water and get involved. I love sports gambling. Been listening to you forever.
33:05
I've stolen a lot of your act for, uh, the work I do at In The Money Media, but I have to say, in terms of a gambling game, when it's at its best, and Feliko will tell you this, too, it's, it's the best gambling game there is, and I think a lot of people in your audience would do well to check it out.
33:19
There it is. There's a, uh, a PSA for horse racing itself, betting-wise. Thank you, Peter. Great to talk to you, man. You are the man. Keep up the great work, guys. Love listening to you.
33:31
You, you make the workouts so much easier. Thank you so much, Peter. Thank you. That's very kind of you. @LoomsBoldly, @LoomsBoldly, courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
33:39
That's where you can find Peter on the Twitter machine. Al Bernstein on the other side. Canelo. Canelo's got a fight, and it might not be that easy. Next.
33:49
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. It is Kentucky Derby time.
34:05
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34:11
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34:22
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34:31
It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Tilghman, live from Bar Canada at the D.
34:35
We got the super middleweight, the unified super middleweight title championship of the world this weekend, Saturday, T-Mobile Arena right here in Las Vegas.
34:43
Canelo Alvarez and Jaime Munguia, the undefeated Jaime Munguia, 43 and 0, 34 by knockout.
34:51
Uh, Canelo still a, uh, prohibitive favorite, north of $5, and to help us navigate through that, and with some other stuff to, uh, announce about his boxing announcing life, it's VSiN's original host, one of our original hosts, Al Bernstein, everybody.
35:07
The legendary Al Bernstein, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Good morning, Al. How are you? I, I'm good, Gil. How are you? Nice to visit with you. Nice to visit with you. Always great to, uh, talk to you.
35:16
Um, first, let's get the announcement out of the way. We've known you, obviously, not only as a VSiN original host, but m- perhaps more famously, so many years at Showtime, two decades at Showtime announcing boxing.
35:28
ESPN before that. What's the big news, man?
35:32
Well, I'm, uh, my next, uh, part of my broadcast journey is going to, uh, be switching over to a series that's on DAZN, which of course is the, um, one of the major boxing platforms.
35:46
Um, the giant digital sports platform that, uh, has not just boxing, of course, but all, you know, uh, all, all sports globally.
35:56
And I'm gonna be, uh, starting on May 23rd with a, a Big Time USA Boxing series, it's called, and, um, I will be, uh, now moving on to that series, so I'm excited.
36:07
It's gonna start on May 23rd, and, uh, I'm very happy to be back in, uh, back ringside, back calling fights, which is, um- Well, I like to do lots of things. As you know, that's the main thing. That's the main thing.
36:20
By the way, let's not bury the headline. One of the other th- things that you like to do is you have a, you have a, uh, a singing career here in Las Vegas, and I mean this, Al. I wanna come and, and see this.
36:31
When is the next performance? We're shooting for June, uh, and I'm gonna... I will keep you posted of it. Um, it's not...
36:40
I, I don't have the date, um, set, but, uh, it's gonna be in the middle of June and I'll, um, I'll keep everybody posted on it. I usually do. I'm performing over at the Tuscany, uh, Suites, uh, casino.
36:53
Uh, they have a wonderful, great music room over there, uh, just off the strip. It's a really nice place and, uh, so, um, that's kind of my home away from home musically, so- I love it... we'll be doing something.
37:05
You know, I will make sure you're there. We're gonna get you there. Kelly, we're going. Oh, we're going. We're there. We're in. We're there, Al. Looking forward to it. I love it. Can't wait, and I'm being serious.
37:13
Well, it's so fun. Can't wait. Okay. Uh, before we get to the Canelo fight, can I just ask you off the cuff here?
37:19
'Cause there's been a couple of things, obviously, uh, that have been in the news in boxing, one of which is... And I just wanna ask you which one, as, as a long time boxing observer, um, what bothers you more?
37:32
We have the news of Ryan- [laughs]... Ryan Garcia testing positive for the performance-enhancing substance ostarine. Uh, he had the upset win over Devin Haney. Mm-hmm.
37:40
There's that, and then of course, you know where I'm going with this, then there's Mike Tyson- Yeah... right? At 58 years old. Um, and he's, he... This is a sanctioned fight now, I guess. Although, it's, uh, what is it?
37:53
It's two minute rounds, eight two-minute rounds- Yeah... uh, against Paul. What, what bothers you more as a boxing purist? See, that's, that's what...
38:02
See, only a really, really, really, really good host would phrase that question exactly that way. That's, that's... I can count on you to do things like that.
38:12
[laughs] That's really, really interesting because it is true, both of those things in some ways, I mean, in different ways, are nettlesome to boxing fans.
38:22
Of course, the Ryan Garcia situation, and let's be hon- if there's one, is one thing that can annoy boxing fans.
38:30
Certainly, that whole situation was fraught with, um, eccentricities, uh, and, uh, mistakes, and, uh, poor behavior. Uh, he comes in three pounds overweight.
38:45
Uh, there's all the craziness leading up to the fight, and then of course, why wouldn't it culminate with him, uh, testing negati- uh, positive for, for performance-enhancing drugs?
38:58
It is a little bit annoying because it, it... More than a little bit. It's, it... Because here's this fight that
39:06
boxing fans are a little embarrassed about to begin with, then because of his great performance, it kind of took some of that away, and then now here we are back again. So that one's certainly a, a problem.
39:17
The other, the other situation, uh, with Fu- with, uh, Tyson and, uh, Jake Paul [laughs]
39:25
, you know, we live in times now where an event, the marketability of an event and, uh, what you can do with it in terms of marketing and PR kind of overtakes the value of an event. Uh, that, that's true of everything.
39:42
Um, so which one is more annoying? I'm gonna say, um, one is the more globally annoying thing and one is the more specifically annoying thing. How's that? Is that a fair statement? Okay. That, that works.
39:53
Mike Tyson will be 58- [laughs] I'm trying to, I'm trying to put on my UN diplomat hat here. [laughs] That's right. Mike Tyson will be 58 by the time the fight goes down in July. Jake Paul, 27 years old.
40:05
Um, I c- I'm only reminded, though, uh, and we'll get to Canelo here, right? But, uh, last thing I wanna say about this is Ernie Shavers came on the show when we were at the South Point about four or five years ago.
40:15
Mm-hmm. And Ernie Shavers, for those who don't know, one of the great boxers of the 19- Yeah...
40:18
one of the great heavyweight boxers of the 1970s, and largely considered to have the, the hardest punch of all of the greats. Right. And he was 73 years old at the time, right?
40:28
73 when he came on the show, and I said to Ernie- Mm-hmm... I go, "Ernie, if we stood up right now and you punched me as hard as you could in my stomach, would I fall to the ground?"
40:36
And he just, he smiles and he goes, "Oh, yeah. For sure." 73 years old. So shouldn't- Mm-hmm... shouldn't Mike Tyson be able to take down this kid? I'm, by the way, I'm no Jake Paul. I'm not making the comparison.
40:45
But what I'm saying is these old fighters don't die that quickly. Well, they, you know, the old, the old line that power is the last thing to go, and that is probably true. However,
40:58
Jake Paul is kind of like a, a, a, a fledgling professional cruiserweight. Like, he would be fighting cruiserweights and kind of ads that are, like, five and one, or six and two, or seven and four, whatever.
41:11
And the thing about Mike Tyson is, A, he's 57, and B, he didn't fight well in, in mo- in his final fights, you know? Yeah.
41:20
He lost ag- Um, now we saw him in the George Jones exhibition, uh, at, you know, some y- about a few years ago and, um, you know, he showed some skill level and, uh, and clearly he is muscle memory.
41:38
Um, if he hits Jake Paul correctly, he could knock him out, but, uh, the other thing is they're fighting with 14-ounce gloves, which, um, uh, is partially done, I think, to mitigate somebody getting hurt in that fight.
41:52
Yeah. All right. Canelo, Munguia. Uh, Canelo Alvarez and Jaime Munguia, uh, how do you see this? Canelo is a -525 favorite, but a lot of folks are saying Munguia has a shot here, +380 on the comeback. Here's the thing.
42:05
This fight boils down to... And, and when you look at the, you know, the wagering, this is the pr- this is kind of, to me, the, uh, the,
42:15
the, the thing that hovers over all of what somebody might decide when they're thinking about wagering on this. At the end of the day, uh, Canelo Alvarez simply, it do- it doesn't get knocked out.
42:27
He gives an iron chin that is almost impossible to ultimately penetrate. Jaime Munguia is a, is a volume puncher. So Jaime Munguia
42:40
can win rounds against Canelo Alvarez, assuming he would get that. But, you know, Canelo is o- often, of course, gets the benefit of the doubt from judges, um, and that's something to remember.
42:53
The question is, can Jaime Munguia stand up to the power of Alvarez, who is a, who has been at 168 longer, and who is probably the hardest puncher that Munguia has faced?
43:06
That is really what this whole fight boils down to. And so when you're looking at the, the overall odds, and when you're looking at whether you wanna bet on it'll be a decision or it'll be a knockout,
43:19
I think that's the key thing you have to decide. You know, Munguia, uh, is what, uh, you know, uh, to win by decision, plus 700. To win by, uh, KO, plus 950.
43:32
Of course, those are attractive numbers, and for somebody to put down a c- a couple of dollars thinking it might happen is interesting, I suppose, but it's just not a likely...
43:43
You know, to, to most people's minds, it's, it's a tricky scenario. So tho- that's the one thing you have to decide as a fan and as a bettor when you're gonna look at this fight. So one of the...
43:54
Y- you would say put a little money on one of those two if you can bring yourself to a Munguia win here. Oh. Figure out if it's by decision. If, if, if, yeah. Yeah.
44:01
If you're convinced of a, of that, that there might be a, uh... That's exactly right. Um- Okay...
44:06
if you're convinced there might be an upset, take a shot at a little bit of that, of both of those and, and, you know, and, uh, go home and, and say a novena.
44:15
[laughs] I'm glad you said that part about, though, when it gets to decision with Canelo, it always gets a little dicey. Well, that's the other thing. Yeah, yeah. Right? And, and, and- Alan, Alan, I gotta run.
44:24
I gotta run, unfortunately. Yeah. But thank you so much for spending the time, and congratulations on DAZN. You take care. Hey, good to talk to you. You too. Okay.
44:32
Al Bernstein, ladies and gentlemen, Hall of Fame boxing analyst. Not every day we get to talk to a Hall of Famer. Hall of Fame boxing analyst. We'll come back. The Crack Man, unscripted, next.
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