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May 2, 2025
A Numbers Game | May 2, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 2, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. So, one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, eSports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:20
It's Kelly Bidlin alongside everybody, producer number nine. So much more than a producer. Hey-o. Who was it back, uh, behind the glass that said you've changed since Turks and Caicos? Rob Moreno.
0:30
Rob Moreno says you've changed. He's very, he's very critical of me, though, always.
0:32
[laughs] We, coming up, Fezzik Fridays, Chris Fallica standing by to give his, uh, Derby and Oaks plays, and whatever else he's betting. Uh, we get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciate this. Uh, Jeff Cam,
0:44
"Love Jason, but he looks homeless." [scoffs] Wow. Yeah, well, yeah, but you haven't seen his shoes, so. Yeah. Jeff, he speaks very highly of you. Geez. Yeah.
0:53
Tronsky, "What I think Gil and Drew have failed to mention in the recent Iga struggles is how the field has drastically improved over the last year and a half.
1:00
Similar to ATP, WTA goes through peaks and troughs of talent. Iga took advantage of a trough."
1:07
I, I was, I was with you till that last line, because that's like sort of saying Tiger took advantage of that in golf as well. Yeah, he was just so far better than everybody else that then it appears that way.
1:19
That was Iga. Iga shows up, she goes to number one in the world, she wins 23 tournaments, she wins five majors. Yeah, eventually they'll catch up with her. But, I don't know about taking advantage of a trough.
1:28
What I will give you is she did get lucky that Ash Barty retired. I do concede that point. That was, that was definitely a help. Uh, Big Kahuna, "Bucks have only one option.
1:41
Trade Giannis to OKC for some of the picks they have. They have a ton." Oh my God, could you imagine? Need players, too. No, no, the one I'm secretly hoping for is, uh, is the Spurs. The Spurs.
1:53
You want, you are, you are obsessed with the thought of Giannis and Wemby playing together. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Because you could just build, build whatever you want around them on offense.
2:03
They, good, good luck attacking that defense. The OKC thing, is there a thing, is, is there such a thing as too much? Would that work? Oh, I, oh, there's definitely a thing as too much. Yeah.
2:13
I think we've seen it over the past 15, 20 years- Yeah... with some of the big threes and stuff that have been- Yeah... assembled, of who's gonna get the ball, and usage rates and stuff like that.
2:19
I, I, th- that's all it ta- b- basketball's a funny thing. You've got five guys on a court. It's, there's an optimal efficiency.
2:25
If you had, if you had a team of five that was Bird, Magic, Jordan, Oscar Robertson, and Wilt, you're not scoring 300 points. Right, yeah.
2:33
It's, it, like, I think the fir- perfect example though of Oklahoma City is, okay, Giannis goes there, y- sure, I think Giannis and Shai are great, but does it stunt the development of a Chet Holmgren?
2:43
Probably, absolutely. Probably does, yeah. Has some sort of, uh, d- you can't really quantify the effect in some cases. Yeah. Um, ladies and gentlemen, you know him as The Bear, El Oso. Uh, he is at Fox Sports now.
2:55
Once upon a time, he was at ESPN.
2:56
Maybe known more for college football than anything else, but if there was only one sport he could handicap, if you held him to one sport for the rest of his life, his answer will always be horse racing.
3:06
It's Chris Fallica, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, @ChrisFallica, F-A-L-L-I-C-A, on the old Twitter machine. How you doing, man?
3:14
I, I, I'm doing well, and I wanna ask you a quick question just because, uh, if you were someone hypothetically that had, was holding a Jack Draper at 28 to one to win Madrid, and now he's in the, the semis today against Musetti, who's the better, uh, clay player, but this court seems to be playing a little bit more like a, like, like a hard court.
3:32
Like, what, what would you, in theory, uh, do today? Musetti has overperformed his numbers the whole tournament.
3:39
Something happened to him in Monte Carlo where his entire brain changed, and he's like a t- he's, he's considering himself a top 10 player, and he's playing out of his, out of his gourd at this point.
3:50
So what do I mean by that? I mean that w- I can't properly tell you how good he is. He's a plus 147 dog. I would be terrified.
3:59
Draper to me is still the guy to win this tournament at this point, uh, in the semis, but I'd be a little terrified today. I don't know if that answers your question, but I would, I would s- It- Yeah...
4:09
a little terrified is probably the, the way I'm, I'm seeing it too. See, I, I'm thinking about, uh, putting a nice little pre- pre-flop on, on Musetti to cover my pr- cover my, uh,
4:20
uh, investment and maybe make a little bit off of it. Well, but, uh, looks like Ruud took the first setting against Cerundolo today as well.
4:25
Yeah, Ruud of course traditionally with great clay numbers as well as they're in the semis in Madrid and then the finals on the WTA side, which is, uh, Sabalenka and Coco with Sabalenka a very short favorite at minus 125.
4:37
Interesting. Uh, okay, Kentucky Derby, sir. The run for the roses. Mm-hmm. The fastest two minutes in sports. Go. What do you got? Uh, uh, where, where to start? Um,
4:50
I hate landing on the favorite in this race, but I, I can only envision four horses of this field. I, I, I know Drew was talking about how deep it is. Uh, I can only see four horses winning this race.
5:02
I can see Journalism win, I can see Sovereignty win, I can see Basah, who just drew in today, win, and I can see Luxor Cafe win. I, I think the winner comes from one of those four horses.
5:13
Uh, you can knock Journalism for only facing a couple of five horse fields, but he's got the proper profile for the runner that I think is going to win this race.
5:23
So I'm gonna key Journalism first and second in, in the exacta. Uh, what that means basically is I need Journalism to finish first or second, and then I'm going to need either, uh, Luxor Cafe,
5:39
uh, Publisher, Tiztastic, uh, Cole Battle, who may or may not run, I, I, I've heard some conflicting reports there, and then Basah, one, one of those horses to run second, or
5:52
Cole Battle, Luxor Cafe, Basah to win, and then Journalism to finish second.
5:57
That's the main way I'm betting this race, and then I'm gonna wind up, uh, doing a smaller exacta key with either, with, with Sovereignty to run first or second with those same horses.
6:08
Um, a- and then I'm gonna have that trifecta that was put up there with Journalism keyed first and second With those same horses in the other spot and then, uh, and then fill out.
6:18
I, I've tweeted this out, so i- if you, if you haven't had a pen and paper to jot, jot down your notes, uh, if y'all look at my Twitter feed, I have a long, long, long, long, long thread there- [laughs]...
6:28
that has, uh, a lot of things laid out. So, uh, hopefully we come across some winners. But yeah, I,
6:34
uh, I heard American Promise, he did pass the, uh, the, the, the vet, the vet report and the, and the, the stewards voted I guess two to one to allow him to run. So take that for what it's worth. All right.
6:44
Journalism, Sovereignty, Baesa, Alex O Cafe, the four horses that you think can win this.
6:49
100- Yeah, like if you're gonna play, if you're gonna play some pick fours or whatever, those would be the, uh, the four that I would use.
6:54
But, but again, I am, I, I hate landing on the favorite, uh, i- in this type of race. But, uh, outside of questioning just the short field, he's got two of the best speed figures of anyone in the race.
7:06
He's got a great running style, a, a really good trainer, a, a great post.
7:10
Like, u- unless it pours t- overnight and tomorrow and he hates the off going, uh, or if he gets left at the gate or just gets corralled, and th- that's racing. That's the Kentucky Derby. It happens.
7:21
Um, but I, I, he, he just checks every box for me. All right. The 151st running of the Kentucky Derby tomorrow, first Saturday in May. Kentucky Oaks.
7:31
Uh, we go to the Kentucky Oaks where Good Cheer, as Drew mentioned, uh, undefeated filly, is the very short favorite. How are you going on the Oaks?
7:38
Yeah, a, a lot of people are knocking Good Cheer, uh, just because she hasn't, like, I don't wanna say improved or really wowed with the speed figures, but she goes out and visually you watch her, and she just takes care of business.
7:51
She's someone who can be right up on the lead. She can come from well off the pace. She can be, uh, in that first flight as a stalker.
7:58
Uh, again, I think she is the most likely winner, but I do think there are four long shots in here that has an opportunity to win this race and certainly, uh, crack the exact at the number one horse early on, who's 30 to 1, who ran second.
8:12
Uh, we, we gave her out, uh, on a numbers game a couple weeks back in the Gazelle, and she ran too good to lose that day. She's 30 to 1. I think she can improve.
8:20
Faith Fondly, uh, is another horse who's 20 to 1, who's gonna kinda be coming from just off the pace. Tenma, the horse that Drew also mentioned. I am in full agreement with Tenma. Uh, second race off of a layoff.
8:31
Bob Baffert, uh, this horse should improve, uh, in this start. And then Take Charge M'Lady for Ken McPeek, who won this race last year with Torpedo Anna.
8:39
Uh, she is, is rumored to have a little bit of a foot issue a couple weeks back, uh, which caused her to scratch, but reportedly she's doing well.
8:46
So I'm gonna play Good Cheer in the exact, uh, first and second with, uh, with, with those four horses in the Oaks tomorrow.
8:52
And by the way, uh, Torpedo Anna, who I had mentioned, uh, she runs today, uh, in, in a stakes race at, uh, [smacks lips] Churchill Downs. I'm gonna, uh, I'm gonna take a cha- I'm, I'm gonna look to beat her today.
9:03
I think she is very vulnerable today.
9:05
I think both of the, uh, the Chad Brown horses in that race, uh, have an opportunity to win, and if you're looking to, uh, maybe play some pick fours and pick fives, uh, later in the day, maybe, uh, take a stand against Torpedo Anna because I think she might be, uh, a little short today.
9:19
All right, the Oaks is today. The Oaks is today- Yes... for those who are- Mm... who are wondering also. Okay. Fastest two minutes in, uh, in sports is the Derby.
9:26
This is the fastest two minutes in handicapping right now for the rest of these races. Perfect. Today, the Eight Belles, the ninth race. What do you got?
9:32
Uh, t- uh, the, the Eight Belles, uh, the Eight Belles is today, like I said. Uh, I'm gonna look at the, uh, the 11 horse, Look Forward, at 12 to 1 on the morning line.
9:42
Uh, she's two for two sprinting, and I think the cut back from a mile on the 16th, uh, to seven furlongs will be good for her. Uh, we're gonna move to tomorrow. Uh, Churchill just after half mile, that's the fifth race.
9:53
I think the five t- uh, the five horse, Five Towns. Uh, second off of a layoff. Uh, she's run huge those couple of instances as well.
10:01
She's had second off of a layoff, Brad Motion, uh, gets Erath Ortiz Jr., who's the best finisher in the business. Uh, the turf sprint tomorrow, the seventh race, uh, the number 11 horse, Amon.
10:12
Uh, drew wide, gonna need a little bit of pace help and a clear path, but, uh, if, uh, Amon can avoid getting hung out too wide, I think, uh, has a good shot.
10:21
Uh, the American Turf, the ninth race, uh, the number 12 horse, Golden Avenue, who's 20 to 1. Uh, I think the favorites in that race are very, very vulnerable. Uh, the pace doesn't look super fast.
10:32
I'm throwing a line, drawing a line through Good Afternoon's, or Golden Afternoon's last race. Uh, never really comfortable with rank. Uh, Mike Smith is very good on the front end.
10:42
She might get brave, uh, and have a big say in the outcome. Uh, Derby City Distaff, the 10th race, uh, the number seven horse, Vava, is six to one on the morning line. I'm not sure we're gonna get six to one.
10:54
Uh, she's four for four at Churchill Downs. Uh, last year she was great. She won this race. Then her final two races of last year at the Ballerina didn't necessarily run well on a speed favoring track.
11:05
Uh, disappointed at Del Mar, never really liked the surface. So I'm gonna come back with her today. And then Redistricting in the Turf Classic, the 11th race, uh, the four horse. I absolutely love this horse.
11:15
I doubt we're gonna get 10 to one, but, uh, this horse should be flying late for, uh, Chad Brown in the race just before the Derby tomorrow. He, he called Golden Afternoon Golden Avenue. I don't feel so bad now.
11:25
[upbeat music] [laughs] Hey, hey, ex- exactly. My, my brain is mush right now. I just, I just got done, like, retweeting my entire, uh, article for, for Dotcom.
11:33
Hey, uh, w- w- I know you have, uh, the Sharp Plays with, with one of your sponsors now. Can you ask them what happened to Mr. Poison? Remember last year- Yeah... during the NHL playoffs, like, Mr.
11:42
Poison's plays were, like, all over the place. He was, like, one of those, like, guys, like- We're on it... you wanna fade. He's got- We're on it. All right. We gotta go, Chris. I will absolutely do that.
11:50
Chris Felice, everybody. Fezzik next VSiN, the sports betting network Smarter bets start here and last all year long with VSiN Pro.
12:05
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12:16
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12:24
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12:36
Head to vsin.com/subscribe now and use promo code PRO to lock in 14 months of VSiN Pro for just $199. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Ladies and gentlemen, by popular demand, it's time for Fezzik Fridays.
12:53
[upbeat music] Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Fezzik Fridays. What do you have to say for yourself, sir?
13:04
You got your own music intro now. One polar bear against three gorillas. Ladies and gent- Steel cage match. Who you got? Ladies and gentlemen, Steve Fezzik, only back-to-back winner of the Hillman Super Contest.
13:15
Say it again? What was it? One polar bear, three gorillas, steel cage match. Well, as I like to, as, as the old adage goes, Steve, "Styles make fights." [laughs] And the, uh, the polar bear has a claw.
13:28
This, this would apply to any bear against the gorilla. I think he might have four.
13:31
Yes, and so that's the, that's the issue, is that the, the, the bear could, the polar bear could s- could stave off the, uh, gorilla with the claw, and that, and the gorilla wants to get close in to unleash his punches, and he won't be able to get in close.
13:46
Kelly did some artificial intelligence research on this, and apparently the draw is not a bad bet where everyone dies, you know? Oh, you're talking about the 100 men now? No, we're talking about the- Oh...
13:56
the, the, the polar bear and the three gorillas all meet their demise from the injuries- I see... from the fight.
14:01
Yes, but, uh, as far as the 100 men, just to put it to bed, as long as they have, like, some, like, militaristic training, they don't even have to be strong, they're i-i-in a, in a, uh...
14:10
Okay, if they're in a forest preserve, the gorilla could just, like, go away from them.
14:13
But if, if it's enclosed confines, the humans always win because they just tackle the gorilla and, like, 10 or 12 of them get sacrificed. Oh, sure. They all just jump. Shouldn't be an issue.
14:21
[laughs] I love the certainty with which you talk about such things. You're like, you're so convinced you're right on this.
14:26
You're the thing, the only- Well, I did, no, I did, but I did research on the internet, and they like- Oh...
14:29
they pretty much said the conclusion is, like, as long as all the humans work together and jump on the gorilla, it's just t- it's just too much, you know, in terms of, you know, the volume.
14:38
But obv- obviously, if you put, like, 100 panicked humans that aren't working together, they're all gonna get slaughtered. [laughs] And the, and the gorilla could tire out at some point.
14:45
I will concede that point as well. Hmm. You wanted to, uh, you wanted to do some guest-on-guest crime. You were not happy with Jason's breakdown of this. Oh, I, I, you know what? I, I, I thought it, it...
14:55
There, there was one time there was, like, a Survivor series and Rick Rude just, a, a very good wrestler, and they're, they're like, "Rude is having an off night."
15:01
[laughs] And this one was like Jason with his gorilla analysis. So he, like, you're like, "Okay, and so no weapons."
15:07
And then Jason's like, "Well, they could have these four-pound steel-tipped boots that they could throw." That's right. [laughs] A, a, a Verlander could throw at the gorilla's head.
15:16
It's like, I said to him, I go, "No weapons, Jason." [laughs] And he comes back and he goes, "And then you can have 100 relief pitchers."
15:21
And then Bad Bad Leroy Brown can take the razor out of his shoe and use that- [laughs]... you know, against the gorilla. Yeah. And it's like, you know, it's interesting, there is a precedent for this.
15:29
In the original Star Trek TV show, Captain Kirk takes on a Gorillian-type creature called a Gorn, although it was, I think it was more reptilian, but extremely strong, like a gorilla, one-on-one, and Kirk won because he was able to use weapons.
15:42
Oh, that is a precedent, isn't it? Yes. [laughs] From Star Trek. The original Star Trek. The best Star Trek, the original series, would you say? Oh, w- y- Not a view...
15:50
way, absolutely way ahead of its time in terms of even, there was one episode where we, where these cre- these aliens have half their face is black, half is white. Yes, yes.
15:58
And they've been ra- and they've been fighting for hundreds of thousands of years. A social commentary. That's right. And Kirk says, "I don't get it.
16:03
You guys seem to have the same values, and, like, why, why, what's your beef? Why have you been warring?" No. And, and the guy says, "Are you blind? The right side of my face is white." Yeah. Genius. Absolutely genius.
16:15
Um, okay, well, I wasn't gonna start with 100 men versus gorillas, but here we are. Uh, let us, uh, segue to another, uh, animal, horses. Um, you are a sports bettor, as we know, but you are not one to bet on horses.
16:28
You find this to be a fool's errand. I don't wanna be the gambling police, and it's fine to put your $5 on your trifectas and your exactas and have a good time with the like.
16:40
But in my opinion, it's beyond naive to think that you can just, like, get some expert that's also doing the NBA and MLB and golf and everything and, and he's gonna give you, um, Kentucky Derby plays and that you have the advantage.
16:55
And the reason being it's not that they're not doing their homework and working really hard, the house vig is just so high on all this.
17:01
And I get it, they're saying, "Well, this is the one time of the year, there's so much public money that can come in." I agree in theory, but that 18% track hold's just too much.
17:10
Yeah, the dumb money theory of, for why you bet the Derby. Yes. Uh, and I brought up earlier with Drew, which I know you, you love this, is, uh, Rich Strike.
17:17
Rich Strike, three years ago, out of the 21 post position, was an alternate. We, again, a whole week's worth of content prattling on about the Derby, right? Podcasts, shows on TV dedicated- Best bets...
17:30
to who you like, who you like, right? Horse one through 20. And literally no human being could have made a bet on that horse the entire week of doing this. Yes, so if you made every single recommended, you know- Yeah...
17:40
bet on who won the whole, the race or, or the exactas or the s- the, the superfectas, everything, you bageled. You got nothing back. Nothing back. But now that was an 80 to 1 horse as it turned out, Rich Strike. Hmm.
17:52
Which by the way is the second-longest shot in the history of the Derby to win. Hmm. Can you name the longest shot? Uh, I, Upset. I don't know. Oh, good guess, though.
18:01
Good guess, 'cause the, from which, uh, the, the term upset comes from. No, 1913, who could forget it, Stevie? Donna Rail won it- Of course... won it at 91 to 1, but Rich Strike at 80 to 1 three years ago.
18:14
Now the horse that is in the alternate post position, 21st position this year, Baesa, is a known horse that is only 12 to 1. So I don't know. You're, you're looking at me like I'm still not betting this thing.
18:25
Time to up- update some podcasts, like, like... Yeah, I mean, b- hey, matchups, horse versus horse, I'm, I'm all for that, where they're minus 115 in each direction and now I don't have to buck an 18% house edge, yes.
18:39
Um, this is kind of related but not related, 'cause you had just brought in someone who's handicapping another sport with, uh, with the Derby and horse racing.
18:47
Um, we are in the middle of the, uh, we're almost at the end of the first round of the VSIN Killer Sports NBA Challenge, the NBA Playoff Challenge.
18:57
Uh, right now within, and most people have a game left, mo- uh, some of us are done with the first round, all 20 picks, and then there's Aaron Renning who might not get all his 20 picks in if, if, uh, the Warriors series is not extended.
19:09
Um, but, um, or I guess he could do... No, he could- He might get it total... he could, he could get it in 'cause he got the seventh game, so he could still get his 20 picks in. Yeah, yeah, he's fine. Yeah, he's fine.
19:18
Uh, but Doug Kazarian in the lead at 14 and 5, you're in second in the clubhouse, 13 and 7, and then Kelly and Alex Christensen, 12 and 7, and 12 and 8 respectively in third place, um, followed by VSIN's own Zach Cohen and JBT both at 11 and 9.
19:34
I should point out Kyle Lakins in there as well, 11 and 8. Um, you have a, th- this is not just this contest, but there's other contests that we do as well.
19:42
You, um, you have a broad point you'd like to make about these contests, ex- uh, sort of shedding light on some things.
19:50
Yeah, so isn't it remarkable how, you know, I'm listening on airwaves, and it's not just, you know, this station, it's all the stations, and everybody's winning. All of these services are winning, all right?
20:02
Everyone- T- Twitter specifically, nobody ever loses... no one ever loses. Yeah.
20:05
Everyone is crushing it, yet as soon as you put everybody into a public contest, be it The Westgate or be it, you know, the Circa Millions, isn't it remarkable how you, you, you, you aggregate all these people that are in this contest and they're a- above 500 typically by a few games?
20:24
Like, they're hitting, like, 50 to 52%, yet everybody wins when they're not in the public contest, when they go ahead and self-document themselves. Interesting. Interesting.
20:34
Um, you would also though concede, and this is a little different than what you're talking about, but it's, it's, it's related, which is contests are not the same as actual real betting, right?
20:45
So James Salinas is a great example. James Salinas is like, "I'm great at contests, but I'm not necessarily a great bettor." He's upfront with that kind of thing.
20:53
We, you and I have talked privately about some of the really good NBA handicappers, two that we think are above the fray here,
21:00
that when it comes to the contest, if they fall a few games behind, they don't have the contest brain to play game theory at that point to win said contest, that they will still hold fealty to the way that they handicap and not use game theory, so it's a different endeavor.
21:18
Exactly right.
21:19
To, to, just to use an example, so, like, Aaron Renning has been very sparse with his selections, so he's just barely gonna be able to get enough selections before the first round ends, and he'll, he'll forfeit those games if he doesn't get to 20.
21:30
Well, there, there was hitting a point where literally I was saying, "Well, wait, he, he's, he's fine because if, if he's got a situation where he needs, you know, there to be a game seven in a series, you know, or he's gonna forfeit picks, well, boom, I'm gonna go ahead and, and shove with the, the favorite game six that needs to win," right?
21:46
Yeah. Because that way, uh, if, if I forfeit a pick, I'm not gonna win this contest anyways, so it just makes sense to game theory like that. So I, I love this part about you.
21:56
You've already declared that there's only a certain num- there's only a certain number of players that can win this contest now.
22:01
There's 18 after this round, there's 18 picks left for everybody else throughout the duration of the, uh, the NBA playoffs, but you have proclaimed that only six people can win this?
22:10
I think it's up to, uh, I know I said six, but now I think it's seven. I, I, I, if you're above 500, I think you're live. If you're 500 or below, you've essentially been eliminated. Uh, let me use an example.
22:19
It's like being- [laughs] Let me use an example of the Masters. It's like the Masters, we have 18 holes left. Yeah. 18 picks, and Doug Kazarian's nine under, okay? Yeah. He's, he's plus nine. Yeah.
22:28
So he's nine under, so h- how, how much of a chance does a golfer have that's at par to catch a guy that's nine under, unless it's Greg Norman, not much. Except for the fact that this isn't as hard as golf.
22:38
You could get on a birdie streak here- But you cannot get-... in a way that you can on golf... but you cannot get on an eagle streak, and your, and your opponent cannot get an eight on number 12. That is true as well.
22:49
Coming back, Fezzik next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSIN, the sports betting network. Numbers game live from Circa Resort Casino in downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Steve Fezzik alongside.
23:02
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23:09
Bet on the Derby and hundreds of other races every day at firstbet.com. That's the number 1 S-T bet.com. New users can use promo code VSIN200 to grab a $200 signup bonus. Get ready, the Derby starts at firstbet.com.
23:23
We get tweets at Beat The Book, always appreciate the, uh, feedback from everybody. This is from Nash, last name Nash, "Not sure what Jason dislikes more, horse betting or the post office." [laughs] That's great.
23:34
Uh, OffInTheDark, "Gil, if you were handicapping the guest most likely to try and talk through the break and have to get the 'We gotta go,' who's the favorite?"
23:43
Falica strangely, and he's a guy in broadcasting, he strangely runs into the wall often. Hmm. Um, but, uh, Dr. Bob has that as well, and I have to prepare for Bob 'cause Bob's answers are always in four-minute Length.
23:57
He's always very thorough. So if I only have two minutes on the clock, I have a real dilemma every time Bob's on, 'cause I'm like, "I don't know what to do here."
24:03
Play-by-play commentary the end of the Jacksonville State-LaTech game. Yeah, exactly. Hell, marry. Yes.
24:07
Um, but the answer to your question historically is the worst off- there was a couple of worst offenders into the wall.
24:13
JJ Redick was on a numbers game once, and he would [laughs] he just kept going, and I'm like, "JJ, I know you're gonna be the coach of the Lakers one day, but I gotta go, buddy." That was JJ Redick. Um,
24:24
that's a good one. Roger Jones, I cannot read that. That is very funny, but I cannot read that on air.
24:28
Ryan Hyatt, "The big wild card in the polar bear versus three gorillas is the fact that one of those gorillas will turn midway through the bout and team up with the polar bear, then it's all over.
24:37
Heck, they travel together." Gil, you should've seen that coming. Um, Kelly Bidlin, a Kelly Bidlin has tweeted in. He says, "Long time listener, first time caller."
24:46
He says, "I hear your director, Savannah, wants to know that if Fez- wants to know if Fezzik played Dungeons & Dragons when he was younger, and how good was he? Like of a GOAT?"
24:54
[laughs] I had the four-sided die, the six-sided, the 20, yes. Absolutely. You are the quintessential D&D player.
25:03
Uncle Bush, "My analogy for the derby is trying to bet the exact outcome of the first three basket scores and method which they score at an NBA game, except there's 20 guys on the court at the time, or more topically, which of the 100 men will deliver the final blow to the gorilla?"
25:16
[laughs] Oh, man, that was all over the place. Keto Walker, "Good morning.
25:19
If sports bettors followed the, uh, Jason Weingarten rule of thumb, stop playing what you never win, sportsbooks would be more polite, more courteous, and give more incentives to bettors just to keep their doors open."
25:28
Rick Ollier, "Can we get more nerd talk with Fezzik? I wanna know if the gweeblers, with or without their power swords, from the eighth episode of season 72 can defeat the gorilla. Thanks." Is that a Star Trek question?
25:39
Rhodes Knows, "Steve was really critical of the Jaguars' pick of Hunter. What type of year would he have, uh, would he have to have for s- for Fezzik to admit that he was wrong or to say that he was wrong?"
25:50
Oh, he could be the MVP. They'd, they'd still be wrong because we're not, we, we're really not sure if Travis Hunter's gonna be a great player or not.
25:56
That's, the, the, but the point is, basic strategy, it's like blackjack. Um, you, you have a seven and the dealer has a nine, you must hit.
26:04
So, uh, regardless of whether you get a three or not, the outcome is irrelevant to the fact you don't, you don't mortgage your future to move up three picks in the first round. Okay. Um, this is... Oh, one more here.
26:18
Spence, "Fez has a great point on people who self-document. I heard so many experts go hard on the Lakers to blow away the T-Wolves.
26:24
At the end of the day, a certain percentage of good old-fashioned luck comes into play." Okay. Yesterday, when Crack was here, Bill Krackomberger. Love the Crack man. Who doesn't love the Crack man?
26:33
Uh, each and every Thursday here on The Numbers Game at 11:00 AM Eastern, 8:00 AM Pacific, Crack spends an hour with us.
26:38
But we got into this whole discussion about, uh, this kid who won $800,000, um, making various bets, and how the casinos are trying not to pay him. That's basically- Some of the casinos. Some of the casinos.
26:53
Are, is it, is it all of them or some of them? One of them paid, one of them paid like 135,000. Okay. No problem. So he got something out of it. Yes. Uh, okay.
26:59
So the commissioner of sports betting, Captain Jack Andrews, um, I believe he still has that in his bio, that I call him that.
27:06
He DM'd me because apparently, and by the way, apparently, I, I raise my hand, I was not nearly thorough enough with this 'cause we were just sort of reading it on the fly, and there were some things I didn't know about this, and Captain Jack has, uh, set the record straight on this.
27:19
Would you like to hear it? Please. Here we go. He said, uh, "Hey, Gil. Caught the segment, uh, with Crack about the, uh, kid in Chicago. Couple points, uh, to add to the story.
27:27
One, the kid did present ID and file a W-9 on multiple occasions when Caesars asked him to when they realized he was going over the thresholds.
27:37
His play, as far as I can perceive it," that's Jack talking, "was to bet on a team at the current spread and then parlay the lookahead lines on that team, surmising that the lookahead line would be less given their recent win.
27:50
It's the kind of thing a 24-year-old might think is a plus EV parlay, of course. However, a chain is only as strong as the weakest link. Uh, so the EV here is less than the guy thinks, maybe even minus EV.
28:01
He ran good, in other words.
28:03
Caesars," this is Jack talking here, "Caesars is citing structuring to avoid, uh, FinCEN rules, but as Fezzik points out, that's on Caesars to detect and protect, and it appears they actually took steps, so for them to toss that back on the bettor is a weak argument."
28:20
He goes on to say, "Caesars is also citing multiple duplicate wagers to circumvent limits. However, again, this is Caesars' problem, not the bettor's.
28:29
To have house rules that are subject to the objective opinion of Caesars is really poor rulemaking, and Indiana Gaming shouldn't permit that.
28:39
If you make two different parlays including the same key team, is that a violation? If you bet a team at minus three, it moves to minus three and a half, and you bet them again, is that a violation?
28:49
It's ambiguous at best. The Indiana Gaming Commission has said the bettor acknowledged his bets were subject to be voided when he contacted them." See, I didn't realize he did that.
28:59
"However, the bettor has produced the original email in which he acknowledged they may be voided, and he wanted to avoid being free-rolled, which is what happened.
29:09
The bettor got no mediation from the Indiana Gaming Commission other than a blanket reply that the sportsbook is governed by house rules, and if he's in violation of the house rules, then they back the sportsbook."
29:20
Uh, he finally goes on to say, "He does have a case that seems destined for courts, is a case both against Caesars for having ambiguous house rules and against the IGC," the Indiana Gaming Commission, "for failing to establish unambiguous house rules by one of their operators.
29:34
Interestingly, he probably didn't commit fraud because his wagers were likely minus EV, and thus Caesars cannot prove damages resulting from the fraud.
29:44
This is a likely case of a bettor who got lucky and an operator looking to find a reason not to pay because the details of how he bet seem suspicious to them."
29:55
Thank you, Captain Jack Andrews, for that unbelievably thorough- Description there. I love that description. I actually disagree with some of it, though. Okay. It's irrelevant whether it's a plus EV or a minus EV.
30:06
I would agree with that. Yeah. All right? And by the way, I did speak with Bob Nersesian, gaming lawyer here, locally. Not just, not just a gaming lawyer. The gaming lawyer. The gaming lawyer.
30:14
The guy, if you have a beef with a casino- Yeah... and, and, like, you know, talk to him, and he is extremely confident this whole structuring thing is absolutely not the case, and it's, it's not my job.
30:25
I go in there, I go gamble in a casino. I'm gonna go f- gamble in Circa, all right? And I'm, and I'm buying in for amounts, and he, he was adamant it's, it's getting paid out that actually is the structuring aspect.
30:33
Actually putting the money down is not, you, n- no one's ever gonna get in trouble for, like, betting lots of money in a casino, and guess what? People do that all the time.
30:41
They don't have to come and say, "Hey, by the way, just making sure you're, you're filling out the proper paperwork and doing your job." You know, it's not the, the, the patron, the gambler's job.
30:50
You know, the one unclear aspect of this is that if there are rules that clearly state, "Hey, you know, $500 limit on kiosks, you know, that you can bet on," all right? Yes.
30:59
And you're s- and you're going above those rules- And s- and sometimes those are post- posted... Willy Wonka style, you know, you did- Yeah...
31:04
it's in the Photostat copy in the rules, you know, get out your micro, y- y- your, your magnifying glass and you can read, hey, um, then you, you do have a situation where the casino could have a voidable, um, option where they could say, "All right, you went over these rules and we are gonna go ahead and lock up these tickets and refund them.
31:20
We're not gonna, because you, you went over the limits." But that, just because you have a voidable contract doesn't mean you can pass post someone and wait until
31:28
the actual, um, culmination of the results and then only void it if the person loses. I'm, I'm gonna use an analogy. Two of them.
31:35
If this kid had just loved the Cubs, and he'd gone and bet the Cubs to win the World Series- Mm...
31:39
over and over and over and over and over again and circumvented all these limits, 500, 800, thir- 300- It's like, it's like my Atlanta Braves to win the division a few years ago, where I bet them 17 consecutive days.
31:50
Exactly. Yes. You know, there would never be a problem. There would never be an issue. So the only issue is like, oh, maybe he made smart bets, you know? What... Irrelevant whether they're smart bets or dumb bets.
32:00
It's all the same.
32:01
It's like it's either okay or it's not okay, and the fact that, that any, any casino that waited until those tickets resolved itself and then tried to decide whether they would have action or not, it would be like me walk- I walked up a blackjack table, one more analogy, $500 limits, clearly labeled, and I'm betting 2,000 a hand, and they're paying me.
32:20
You know, we're, they're dealing, dealing, dealing. But clearly it says $500 limit, but I'm betting 2,000. I play for an hour. I win 100,000.
32:26
The casino says, "Excuse me, there's a $500 limit, so we are gonna go ahead and we need that 75,000. We're not gonna pay you for that 75,000 win. You went above the limit." Yeah, but you accepted the wagers.
32:37
That trumps any placard or sign that says that's the limit. Well, see, w- the interesting thing is, and what's getting lost in here, I think, is you make a point there about how it's the free-rolling, right? Yes.
32:49
So you can't wait till the event to be done before you then decide to, you know, adjudicate.
32:55
So what we're really, what, what I think we're kind of getting here is that the casino has some sort of burden on them, what, what we are kind of saying is, to adjudicate it beforehand.
33:07
This is, again, and may I relate it back to my thing with the Westgate. Mm-hmm. Right? This is, this notion is crazy to casinos.
33:14
You have to tell the bettors, but you have to contact the bettors beforehand and let them know this is voided, and of course, there is no burden on casinos to do that, so in the end, they're like, "What are you talking about?
33:26
You should've known." But yeah, you free-rolled everybody in the meantime. And the burden of proof has to be on the casino. It's just logical and obvious, not on the bettor. So it's fascinating.
33:34
I, I, I'm, I'm shocked that the Gaming Commission... No, I'm not shocked, because they're in bed with the casinos. It's clear. Yeah, exactly. 100%. Yes. You're all just our guests around here. Don't ever forget that.
33:43
Coming back, more with Fezzik. We'll recap all our bets next. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
33:59
Gil Alexander, Steve Fezzik alongside during Fezzik Fridays here. Uh, we get tweets and betting the books.
34:04
Scott Skee, uh, Scott C @see Scotty Books 17, "Hopefully the kid's case goes to higher courts," he says, "and ambiguity in casino rules finally gets litigated. Credit to Captain Jack for illustrating the point."
34:16
100%, absolutely, thank you to Captain Jack. That was super thorough, um, and super detailed. The Numbers Guys, "Hi, Gil. Hi, Fezz. Uh, we had Elihu Feustel on our show last night."
34:27
We love Elihu, been on this show many times. Uh, "Seems like the crux of the issue was the kid parlayed teams A, B, C, D, and E and then made the exact same bet repeatedly, which is a violation of house rules."
34:38
Well, that's just one way to look at it, but Totally Driven Golf says, "As Elihu said, under Indiana common contact law, Caesars did not void the bets in a reasonable timeframe, only after the bets won, thus he believes about a 90% chance for the bettor to win in court."
34:52
This is gonna be fascinating. And if he, if the kid had bet the Cubs to win the pennant 88 consecutive times, no problem at all, even though that's an exact duplicate of prior bets.
35:01
But that's, that's why I go back to my Atlanta Braves thing against the Mets. Yeah. Plus money, 17 days in a row, no one said a word. Yep. No one said a word.
35:09
Uh, let's go to our, let's, uh, before we, uh, continue, because we wanna mention something here, uh, let's recap all of our best bets of the day, courtesy of gbank, the official bank of VSiN.
35:17
Uh, I am on, and this is all Drew. I'm on American Promise, 16 to 1. My numbers even as, is not even as good as you can get it now. Uh, American Promise to win the Kentucky Derby, the 151st Run for the Roses.
35:30
We shall see. Kelly on the Warriors tonight, laying the points. Warriors trying to close out the Rockets game six at the Chase Center in San Francisco. No one ever says it that way in San Francisco.
35:42
It's always San Francisco. Never say San Francisco. Never say San Fran. It's the city or it's San Francisco. It's your little lesson for the bay there. Warriors minus four and a half points from Kelly.
35:52
He's also on the Cavaliers minus a game and a half in their upcoming best of seven series against the, uh- The, uh, who did I put in? Oh my God, it's escaping my mind now.
36:03
The Indiana Pacers, thank you for goodness sakes Indiana, Indiana's better than the Knicks, but the problem is the Cavs might be better than Boston Jason Weingarten has a coup- uh, has a few baseball places.
36:12
On the Tigers today laying the, uh, wood minus 177. On the Rays is a big dog at plus 215, and he's taking the Birds, the O's, the Orioles minus 130. You are also on the Tigers today, right?
36:24
I, I am, and a- and Scooball and company, in Scooball we trust. Um, that steamed up, um, and it, it's gone from minus 165, minus 173.
36:32
It's like as high as minus 190, so you might wanna go with a little diversified portfolio.
36:37
Look for, like, maybe the Tigers first five now that it's a cheaper price, and lay minus 180, and that way you're just locked into Scooball. Although, but the Angels bullpen's terrible, so they're all gonna win.
36:47
Uh, the Padres, uh, start their May festivities today against the Pirates. Drew Dincic, he's got American Promise to win the Kentucky Derby at 25 to one, and Tenma to win the Kentucky Oaks at 12 to one.
36:59
By the way, if you wanna see any of Chris Fallica's, um, more exotic wagers in the Kentucky Derby, you can follow his Twi- uh, his Twitter @ChrisFallica, F-A-L-L-I-C-A.
37:11
G Bank, the official bank of VSIN with all of our best bets each and every day on the show. Um, upping the ante once again with up to $750 in bonuses. Earn 1% on cashback rewards on gaming and sports app loads.
37:23
Earn 2% cashback rewards on all other eligible purchases. For more information and to apply, visit vsin.com/gbank. Um, anything else you wanted to add about the kid and the $800,000, or are we covered that?
37:36
I, I think we got all of it. I, I will, I do wanna mention, I'm always a, an advocate for the player- Yeah... and the like, and, and, and maybe part of this is, like, this whole always sneaking around, you know?
37:45
It's like this, that's what blackjack, you know, pros do. That, that's their entire life is sneaking around casinos trying to stay under detection.
37:53
Wearing your hair in a bun or wearing a baseball cap does not, um, constitute, you know, structuring an illegal activity. Um, Kelly, did you say something in my ear that we needed to know here? Um, okay.
38:07
Well, well, so, so, so we have some breaking news. I'm sorry. Ooh. Uh, breaking news here. This is that, uh, Greg Popovich will no longer be head coach of the San Antonio Spurs, transitioning full-time to team president.
38:17
Sources tell, uh, told ESPN the iconic Greg Popovich, a Basketball Hall of Famer, the NBA's all-time winningest coach, and led the Spurs to five championships, has obviously had, uh, his share of, uh, of health issues, above all transitioning out a great coach of all time.
38:32
But, uh, more than anything we all hope that he's okay. Yes. Um, obviously dealing with all of that. Greg Popovich at the age of 76 deciding to retire from head coaching and moving into the front office.
38:44
I'm shocked there's not more people that do that, you know? It's like, why, what, what possesses someone to wanna be, you know, at some point, you know, how big of a yacht do you wanna water ski behind?
38:53
Just enjoy your life at 76. Enjoy your life. That's right, enjoy your life. Um, s- there is another thing.
38:59
You know, we, uh, we don't, I don't often talk about promos that we read here, but this one about Circa that I have been, uh, every time I read it I always stop in my tracks and I'm like, "This is amazing."
39:09
I gotta talk to Derek. I mean, I know he knows what he's doing and all, but this is, this is, like, the greatest promo, the all-in $400 promo. Tell everyone about it.
39:17
This is it right here, the all-in summer hotel package, $400 all in. This is now through September 4th. You can find out all about this at circalasvegas.com. Two-night hotel stay. That includes resort fees and taxes.
39:30
They don't add that on to the 400. This is $400 all in. Two-night hotel stay, $100 dining credit, $100 beverage credit, and a day bed at Stadium Swim. Who wouldn't like that? All for $400 all in.
39:44
So go ahead and book this right now because they're [laughs] gonna sell out. I'm gonna personally guarantee you're gonna have a, a great time.
39:50
I spend all the time, uh, I'm, I'm, I'm constantly during the summer texting Jeff Benson. I'm like, "Just get me a pass for Stadium Swim because after the show I wanna... And, and get me a pass to the gym." I love Circa.
40:02
I love all the restaurants. I love Barry's. I love their deli. Um, just the whole vibe, the atmosphere.
40:08
Everyone's invited as long as you don't have kids, and it's, um, uh, I, I love the Rose Bowl at dusk, and I love Circa Swim actually at dusk.
40:17
When the sun's about to go down, the games are on and the like, it is the time of your life.
40:21
If you love sports, why would you be, I'm not gonna m- mention any places by name, maybe, like, dark, cavernous sports books where the s- sun never comes in- [laughs]... you know, by the Las Vegas Country Club.
40:32
But, like, that Stadium Swim to watch games- Oh, it's fantastic... right at- Yeah... at, at the sunset, and you're just... Yeah, and you hop in the hot tub, and it's just like life is good.
40:42
Speaking of that, uh, cavernous sports bar, are you going to enter Westgate's, uh, Survivor cup- You don't do Survivor, do you? I, I do it. Oh, you did. Yeah, but- That's right. Yeah, absolutely.
40:49
I, I- You also invest in other Survivor, uh, entries, it should be said I, I, I believe strongly the Millions and, and contests like that are more skill-based and Survivor is more luck based.
40:59
There's still, you know, certainly- Yeah... um, a lot of skill involved, but, like, the bottom line is you're gonna have a seven-point favorite. I'm gonna have an eight-point favorite.
41:07
Kelly's gonna have a nine-point favorite. Yeah. It's like how much of a difference is that really in terms of, you know, um, the skill? Well, so would you play both, or would you just play Circus?
41:15
Um, I, well, I, it depends on the overlay. If there's an overlay- Yeah, different story... in any contest, that trumps everything. Yes. All right.
41:21
Before we go, there is one more thing that we, that I need to bring up with you. The notion of game sevens. Uh, we have a game seven coming up between the Clippers and the Nuggets.
41:30
Uh, that is gonna be on Saturday back in Denver. Um, Denver trying to, to beat the NBA Hard Odes play of the Clippers, uh, with Nikola Jokic and crew.
41:42
Uh, Jamal Murray, one of the more fascinating NBA careers, a guy who's never been an all-star but is a playoff juggernaut. Mm-hmm. Nuggets favored by one. The total here is what I wanna talk about, Stevie.
41:52
It's at 204 and a half, but it wasn't there to begin with. No, so it's interesting. So game six, the total's 211 and a half. The game goes over, all right? Game six goes over.
42:03
And so, well, game seven probably is gonna be about 211 again, right? No. So it opens 209, um, because there's some bookmakers that have never booked a, a, an NBA game. They, in- [laughs]...
42:16
during their entire careers- [laughs]... but yet they're in charge of risk management. But everyone knows game sevens go under dramatically, and so they didn't get the memo. Everyone else did.
42:25
Now we're staring at 204, and now think about that. We're seven points lower than game six, and game six went over. So the pros love playing game sevens unders, but at some point we're being taxed out of this one.
42:38
We can't do it. It's too low. Too low. Too low. But you do, but you, you are of the, you know, but what you were saying there is, is a truism, which is game sevens do tend to play lower. That's a thing. Way lower.
42:51
Like five points lower. Yes. And so that move reflects that, but you're saying, but, but it's a bridge too far at this point. Ex- exactly right. But, but I, I do wanna address, you hear all the time, "Oh, Vegas knows.
43:00
The Vegas odds makers know." Vegas knows nothing. Yeah. Nothing. I mean, like, they'll, they'll, they open this total 209 and a half, right? Like, like, the first bookmakers. The bettors know everything.
43:11
The bettors are the ones that hammer these lines into place, and it's like Michelangelo. Yes.
43:16
That's, that's one of the, uh, one of my favorite sort of, 'cause because we are immersed in this and we, we come from a sports betting perspective, but one of my favorite mainstream media things that still exists today when they talk about sports betting is, how do they know?
43:29
How does Vegas know? And when, and when the confirmation bias of that doesn't occur to them, that the, you know, for every one of those that exist, there's 20 others that don't land on the number. Yeah.
43:38
It's amazing that they continue this. Well, it's interesting too why, like, the Clippers-Denver series. Like, so, so the Clippers open up, like, plus 170. Yeah.
43:46
You know, um, at, at s- at some books, and the money flips all the way to where the Clippers are a, just a s- tiny favorite.
43:53
And now where they play six games, and despite the Clippers underperforming, you know, in the series, the Clippers are still pick 'em here in game seven, so it'll be fascinating. I think Denver's gonna win. You do? Yeah.
44:06
Yeah. And I got Clippers in the series. I'm in trouble. NBA hardos will not like that if Denver, uh, if Denver emerges victorious and knocks out the Clippers. Uh, JVT will have something to say about that.
44:16
Stormy Bonatony and Jonathan Von Tobel, your two hosts for Money Moves, which as always, uh, follows this show here at noon Eastern, 9:00 AM Pacific. That's coming up. Enjoy. From VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
44:28
Thank you, Steve. Thank you. [upbeat music]
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