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May 31, 2024
A Numbers Game | May 31, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | May 31, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. So on those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, however you're taking us in, we appreciate it. Live from Bar Canada at The D here in lovely downtown Las Vegas.
0:22
Gil Alexander, Kelly Midland in the hizzy. How you doing, man? Doing good, man. How are you doing? Doing very well. Uh, NBA finals are set.
0:29
We're gonna talk about that momentarily after a, uh, nothing burger last night of a game. I thought it was the greatest game ever. I'm sure you did.
0:36
[laughs] Uh, we will talk about all kinds of things later on the show, including, uh, Jason Weingarten will be here from Under a Cloud of Smoke, of course. Jordan Sherwood on UFC 302. Chris Felica,
0:48
Champions League thoughts. And are you ready for this? College football season win totals. Love it. Just a couple of them, though. Love it. Couple of them to whet your appetite.
0:58
You know who used to pronounce whet like that? Ron Flatter. [laughs] Why, Gil, why? Who, what, where? Okay, that's enough.
1:05
Uh, John Legasa, Instant Offense, the microwave, will join us as well to talk, uh, with his baseball picks today. Paul Carr will talk soccer with us as well, his, uh, thoughts on the Champions League final.
1:14
Uh, and a, uh... How can I put this, Kelly? You know, yesterday I had a day to reflect. It's May 30th, 2024. Uh, you know. You know what I did yesterday, by the way? I went to California and back.
1:28
[laughs] Uh, and so I had a lot of time to, uh, I had a lot of time to reflect and, uh, one of the things I reflected upon was you sort of saying, "You know, Gil, for the content, we need a June, June MLB bet."
1:40
And I said, after, after the March, April Cleveland Guardians gut punch- Mm-hmm... an out away from cashing at 65 to one.
1:47
And then after the Guardians, and by the way, again, shout out to the Guardians, you have given me two months of awesomeness despite not cashing. Uh, they come one game shy of...
1:57
This, this game today doesn't mean anything to them 'cause they'll end up third or at least they're in third right now. It's between, by the way, the Yankees and Phillies. We'll update all that later.
2:05
I said to myself, "Self, maybe you should look over June schedules in Major League Baseball." And so, um... By the way, here's your most wins by the end of May update.
2:15
Yankees heading into tonight after their five-run win over the, uh, Angels yesterday, 8-3. Yankees are 20 and seven, Phillies are 19 and seven, and there's our poor Guardians at 18 and nine right after that.
2:26
Ah, poor out of 40 for the Guards. Man, I feel bad for JVT too, right? Didn't he have- Oh, he had the Phillies too... Phillies and Guardians? Oof. Well, is he at a dead heat or is he at Circa? I can't remember.
2:36
I'm guessing Circa, but I don't know. Yeah. If he's at Circa, he's out. Uh, if he's at a dead heat shop, Phillies win, Yankees lose, Phillies and Yankees can tie. Yeah, completely. Um, Yankees are at San Francisco.
2:46
You know how Gi- Giants magic go. Phillies hosting the Cardinals. Um, so I looked over June schedules and, you know, at first they, they weren't at Circa, right?
2:55
They were only at, at Caesars William Hill and I was like, "Oh, well, okay. It's only at one shop and it's a dead heat." I'm not sure how interested I am.
3:02
Not that I wouldn't be interested necessarily in a dead heat, but sometimes I'm more interested in the Circa rules. Um, and then I was like, "Oh, well, the Dodgers, th- they clearly should be the short shot."
3:11
We'll get into all of it later. Anyway, I made a play, Kelly, and it's coming up. Like it. Like it. Hour number two on the show. Why hour number two, you ask? 'Cause I'd like to even bet more this morning.
3:24
That's why hour number two. Uh, so we'll get into all that and we'll go through the whole, the whole handicapping process of that. Uh, first the NBA last night.
3:33
The Dallas Mavericks are taking on the Boston Celtics in the NBA finals. That will begin on Thursday at the TD Garden in Boston. Remember, it's a 2-2-1-1-1.
3:46
1985 through 2014 they switched the, uh, NBA champ- the NBA finals to a 2-3-2 because in those days, 1985, it was so often the Celtics and Lakers that David Stern, the commissioner, was like, "Nah, let's reduce travel by this point.
3:59
Celtics, Lakers, coast to coast, let's go 2-3-2." Well, when Adam Silver took over, 2014, he's like, "Yeah, not so much, 2-2-1-1-1, because we get more randos."
4:08
And take, for instance, this one, Dallas-Boston, that ain't coast to coast. So we have 2-2-1-1-1 like the standard playoff series that exist pre NBA finals.
4:16
Um, and last night, in case you missed it, you didn't miss much, it was 18 to 18. Mavericks went on a 12 to nothing run to go up 30 to 18.
4:26
At that point in the game already, 30 to 18, Luka had 20 points on 8 of 10 shooting, four for five from behind the arc.
4:32
By the way, that was part of what ended up a, as a 17 to one run for the Mavs to conclude the first quarter. They were up 35 to 19. 16-point lead after the first quarter.
4:43
Yeah, it was, uh, it was Luka 20, Minnesota 19 at the end of the first. That's right. Second quarter, more of the same. Second verse, same as the first, I believe someone once said.
4:53
Mavs led by as many as 23 early, 46 to 23. They were doubling up the T-Wolves. They closed the half on an 11-two run. They were up 29 at the half, 69 to 40. At that point, Luka had 25, Kyrie 19.
5:06
Third quarter, they led by as many as 36. [laughs] 82 to 46. Uh, led by 24 at the end of the quarter, 97-93. They win it 124 to 103. The Tim- Timberwolves could never get it lower than 21 points. They couldn't.
5:21
And by the time it got to the second half, I mean, Gil, how many times have we talked about NBA games and you're like, "All right, there's live betting opportunities. Like, this is a g- it's a game of runs.
5:31
Like, there's gonna be..." I don't know. I... It was the first time in a while, I'm not saying I bet it this way or anything, first time in a while like that by, by halftime I was like, "This is over." It's over.
5:40
"This is over." Like, Luka- I think I sent... Didn't I send you a text? The competitive portion of tonight's festivities is over. [laughs] Like- Yeah... Luka was on.
5:46
When you watch that first quarter, man, like he hasn't shot the ball like that in months just 'cause he's been dealing with the knee injury. But him, him leaning into shots, fading away, everything was going in.
5:58
I- You could tell early it was gonna be a long night. By the time we got into that third quarter [laughs] it was, it was dead silent in the arena. You could hear, you could hear everything.
6:06
Luka's yelling at people on the sidelines. Some fan was getting into it with him and, you know, classic Luka is yelling at everybody, yelling at the Wolves bench- Oh, geez... yelling at a fan.
6:16
Some fan had brought a handkerchief I believe is what, uh, is what got reported for his crying, Luka's crying.
6:21
A good little bit until he starts draining every shot in the building at you [laughs] Um, and so there you have it. Mavericks should go. By the way, uh, you would like to say anything as we pour out a 40?
6:30
Not, not a Cancun, a one, two, three Cancun thing, but anything you want to say about the Timberwolves in closing? Um, let's all not overreact. I guess I would say that. There's going to be a lot of...
6:40
I mean, I- where were we a series ago with this team after they just beat the Denver Nuggets, and now it feels like all this fallout is, is coming because of Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert and all this stuff.
6:52
And this was still by far the best defensive team in the league next year. Let, let's just, let's all take a breath a- a- and we can reapproach, uh, things in the off-season. Will, uh, Hill said this.
7:02
He said, "Imagine, imagine telling the Timberwolves after they came back from 20 to beat the Nuggets in game seven, 'Hey, you know, 11 days from now, you're gonna be out of here.'" Yeah. Yeah. [laughs] "What?
7:11
What do you mean? We're awesome." Eh, not so much. I don't know why. It, it feels like this year even more than, more so than others, like the, the instant reaction we want to have to everything, right?
7:22
Anthony Edwards is Michael Jordan. Like, you know, they beat the Nuggets. It's- Yeah... you know, to this morning it's where does Luka Dončić fall in the greatest players of all time?
7:31
Like he's awesome, but- How about-... like can we let him win a championship first, maybe? How, how about what I brought up? Thank God we're not gonna have to re-adjudicate the Rudy Gobert trade. Oh- Yeah...
7:40
for God's sakes. Well, you know, we're onto the, uh, we're onto the Kyrie one now, right? I mean, this is, you go on to win- This is a new one...
7:46
the championship, the Kyrie trade's gonna look like one of the best trades ever. Well, also the narrative is going to be all week how Kyrie left the Celtics, that conflict. Oh, that and Porziņģis. You got the- Yeah...
7:56
Porziņģis, Kyrie, absolutely. And it should be. Should be.
7:59
So I, I, I've said this in different ways for the last couple weeks, but once the Nuggets got bounced, um, it was clear to me that I had no sense for these Western Conference playoffs.
8:09
If, I mean, there's really no sense to have in the Eastern Conference, it was that straightforward. But I, I feel that way now after this series as well.
8:17
Um, and so here we are now the Mavericks and the Celtics, and dare I say, I think I, I feel like I am part of the crowd of people, and by s- by crowd I mean every human being I've talked to,
8:31
with the exception of Drew Dinsick, likes the Mavericks here. That scares me a little bit because I do like the Mavericks at this price.
8:37
Uh, Steve Fezzik, only back-to-back winner of the, uh, Hilton Super Contest on the football side, he sent, he sent me this text this morning [laughs] and I love this 'cause you know, with Stevie it's always advice and then calling out people- Mm...
8:49
even if there's nothing to be called out. He says, "Gilly, I bet Dallas, uh, two to one and plus 190." He gives himself a fine because he bet it before he said anything. Uh, he said, "Circa still has plus 185."
9:01
This is Dallas in the NBA finals on the series price. He says, "I strongly believe the market is going to back Dallas.
9:07
The narrative is going to be that Boston is a paper tiger built for regul- built for a regular season, uh, and injury aided three straight series.
9:15
So if you're gonna back Dallas, I would bet them now because I think this line is going down. If you like Boston- Agreed... wait un- until post to get them." I completely agree with that. Uh, here's the, [laughs]
9:24
here's the part that I love though.
9:25
He goes on to say, he says, "Also, I don't want to hear any blank about anyone getting two to one or plus 195 th- th- that I did because I was all over the openers and that was me that got, [laughs] that got those in pocket right after the games, and I want to see the tickets if they claim so."
9:41
[laughs] There it is on brand. Couldn't get... Was, uh, asked him on air, go, "Do you, what do you think you care more about, winning money or calling other people dumbos?" And he's like, "Dumbos." Um- Oh, that's great.
9:51
That's great... so by the way, you can parse this out of obviously more than just a series price. Um, you can bet this game by game.
9:58
First of all, over five and a half is at minus 150, so slightly juiced to the over in terms of five and a half games. The under's at plus 125. Celtics sweep is six to one. A Maverick sweep is 19 to one.
10:09
That of course is the long shot. Celtics in seven is plus 350. Mavs in seven is eight to one. The shortest of all shots is not the Celtics in seven. A tick shorter than that is the Celtics in five at plus 340. Mm-hmm.
10:25
Yeah, that is, that is not gonna happen. I don't, I don't, I don't think so, but we'll, we'll see.
10:30
I, I th- I actually think Drew on with us the other day was the perfect just, just to sum up what the Celtics are, where it's, uh, for a lot of NBA bettors they've just broken his brain, right?
10:41
Like, I mean, like we asked him- Yes... a fair, uh, what, what is a price that he, a fair price for him on the NBA finals with the Mavericks.
10:48
He's like, "I mean, minus 400 it should be for Celtics," but he's like, "They've broken my, they've broken my numbers this, uh, uh, this postseason." He's like, "I can't get there."
10:57
So- This postseason, also last postseason they've broken like- Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Um, so I'm really interested to see. I mean, this, that Porziņģis has to be back. It sounds like he will be.
11:07
But man, I think with those types of injuries and those types of players, I, I'm kind of wa- I'm waiting to see. I would like to see him back before I think you really get excited about betting Boston.
11:18
Otherwise, until then, you're probably just looking at the Dallas sign. I, I don't know how you could bet Boston without knowing 100% for sure Porziņģis is in there, which I don't really know we, we can say that yet.
11:28
And what's your Mavs, uh, ticket to win it all again? What number? 19 to one. I have 40 to one in the exact, hear the exactas. 40 to, I have 40 to one on Dallas o- over Celtics in the, in an exact. Let's go Kelly Fidlin.
11:40
And then I do agree with Steve's point on the price. I grabbed a little Celtics last night to hedge off a bit though. Coming back, French Open update, remaining plays. That's next.
11:51
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12:05
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12:17
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12:30
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12:38
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13:06
That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. You know, Kelly and I, we, we read this promo as, as everybody has here on the network, but we've read ours for weeks now. A couple weeks, right? Couple weeks? Few weeks?
13:16
And, uh, so it gets lost- I think like four of them... may- what's that? Maybe like four, four weeks? [laughs] Four of those things. Um, but it really deserves to be said again, like 50, less than 50 cents a day, dude.
13:28
Ah, yeah, yeah, yeah. It is. And this helps you make money.
13:31
So again, remember all those streaming subscriptions you have, which you don't even know if you're doubling up on them, and you're spending just as much as you did when you had cable?
13:38
They told you get rid of cable, now you got all these streaming services, and you're like, "Man, I wish I hadn't gotten rid of cable." This is less than 50 cents a day. This doesn't even make a mark on you.
13:46
Yeah, we also don't really care. We don't care if you don't like everything.
13:49
Like, I don't know about you, Gil, you know how many, like, uh, like different stats and betting sites I'm subscribed to that I, I go to for one thing? That's fine. You could use us like that. We don't care.
13:58
Yeah, absolutely. One thing you like on there, use it. Use us. Use us. Use us for that. Uh, French Open today, uh, we had a winner.
14:06
I, I don't even know what to do with myself, Kelly, that we had a final set tiebreaker win this morning. I didn't even know that was possible.
14:12
Olga Danilovic, uh, took down Donna Vekic in a third set tiebreaker, after she got bageled in the first set, by the way. She likes, "Here, here, take a set," and then she went ahead and she won the match- Oh, nice one...
14:23
on a third set tiebreaker. But this on the heels, this on the heels of yesterday, I had Flavio Cobolli, he's a Italian player, Flavio Cobolli, uh, and he was playing Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune.
14:40
And Holger Rune is one of these guys that when you're betting against him, you wanna beat him so bad. He's just got this attitude about him.
14:46
And so Cobolli's down two sets, and we had him at plus 180, plus 178 to be exact. Again, all these plays from all hosts and all guests on the network in every sport at vsin.com/picks.
14:57
It is for subscribers only, vsin.com/picks. And I had Cobolli, he comes back, he knots it up at two sets a piece, and then they go to a fifth set tiebreaker, which at the French Open is out, is, uh, first to 10 by two.
15:10
Every Slam has a different... Uh, no, no, I think they're all uniform now. They all go to 10 in the decider. They are? Yeah. I think they're all uniform now. Really? Okay. Yeah, I think so.
15:19
Now it's, I'm getting confused. Um, so the French Open, anyway, goes to fifth set tiebreaker at, uh, up to 10 by two, and Cobolli goes up 5-love in the tiebreaker, plus 178 dog. You know what happens? We lose.
15:37
[laughs] Yeah, b- but of course. I'm like, "Clay despises me." But of course. But Danilovic did come back this morning to make up for that, although she was a favorite, so it's all a wash. Um- Yeah, you're right. Yeah.
15:47
It's all, it's all uniform now. I did, I did not know that. It's, it's recent. It's in the last year or two. Yeah, I think it's, yeah. It used to be every ti- every Slam did it differently.
15:54
Some would have a fifth set tiebreaker to seven, another would have a fifth set tiebreaker to 10. Wimbledon famously back in the day went forever. Right. Yep. Yeah. Uh, the Isner match that, that lasted three days. Yep.
16:06
It's probably better it's all uniform now for the casual fan, but do you like it? Oh, I like it uniform. Like, was there one that you liked better than others? I like it uniform. Just make it uniform. Okay. Yeah.
16:16
'Cause I kind of go back and forth on that with the PGA does the, like, if there's a playoff, they do, like, the three-hole aggregate instead of just one hole playoff. Oh, right. Yeah.
16:24
And there's, like, part of that that I like, but- But it makes you have to ask the question every time they're coming down 18, "Okay, what's the, what's the playoff format on this?" Ex- Right? Right. Exactly. Yeah.
16:33
Which I think for the casual fans, I'm very okay if they just went to a uniform system. Yeah. The other, uh, we have two, uh, we have, we had two more besides the winner this morning.
16:41
We had, uh, by the way, and yesterday was a terrible day, but today we start off with a winner, and now Clara Tauson, who we have, uh, over Sofia Kenin. She's up a break in the first set, so that's going well early.
16:49
The only one we have left today is the only dog, and that's Ben Shelton. Took a d- uh, took Ben Shelton on the men's side up a- Boo, Florida Gators, boo [laughs] Up against Felix Auger-Aliassime.
17:01
You want me to spell that again? Um- I think me and, uh, I saw- Ben Shelton was Florida, right? Yes, he- I'm not making that up, right? Oh, he was Florida, all right. He was. His dad was the coach there, I believe. Oh.
17:10
Yeah. Um, college tennis is great, by the way. It's awesome. But Shelton thinks he's still playing college t- uh, college tennis sometimes on the pro tour. Like, you know, after he won- What does that mean?
17:20
Remember, remember after he won a match, he famously, I can't remember which tournament. He has some antics, right? Yeah... he, like, acted like the, he was c- he was hanging up a old rotary phone.
17:28
He's like this, and then Djokovic beat him, and Djokovic goes- [laughs]... like that. Uh, sorry for the visuals if you're not watching.
17:34
Um, so yeah, he does a lot of that, which is, like, kind of not what, you know, old school tennis folks are used to. Anyway, I, I'm on a- I like it. I like it... I'm on Shelton to get through today.
17:43
Hopefully, we can have ourselves a sweep today. Um, we'll see. We shall see. Uh, as far as the French Open futures that we have... Oh, by the way, Iga plays a little later on. She hasn't started quite yet.
17:54
But Iga, in her first match since the epic battle against Naomi Osaka, uh, she is, uh, taking on Marie Bouzkova today. It may start during this show. I expect Iga to roll. Do you ever...
18:06
Okay, well, that kind of answers that. Yeah. But in general, do you ever worry about that with so- well, let's say some, some tennis players of lesser talent. Yes.
18:13
Like, is there a, kind of like we bring up in, in other sports, a letdown spot or something like that? Like, are you worried about that with some, some players that come off- Oh... a huge match like that?
18:24
I don't, I don't think there is a letdown. I don't think that term exists in tennis. Okay. I think it's a different thing. Yeah.
18:30
I think it's you're so mentally shot from what you just went through that the emotion of it, that you can't recover from it. I don't think it's a, like, letdown.
18:38
When we talk about a letdown spot in other sports, we're talking about a, the human flaw of just sort of letting your guard down. I don't think that's it typically in tennis.
18:48
Um, but I, I think that Iga-Osaka match, I think that Swiatek-Osaka match will go a long way towards helping Iga forward. Um, not that she needed the help, but that was an epic match.
18:58
Uh, so she's got Bouzkova here later in the day. Uh, as far as our futures, we have Iga, and we have all of the men's players are intact. Casper Ruud had a bit of a scare yesterday.
19:07
He had to go five sets against, uh, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, but he got through, um, one of our, uh, parlays. And then Jan-Lennard Struff. Yeah. Uh, still rolling so far in queue number two.
19:20
We have him at 14 to one to win the, uh, four- to win the second quarter. But his next match is against Alex de Minaur. Hmm. And I still, I'd, I'd love to...
19:30
I haven't seen the price on that, but, uh, young Gilly may have a bet on Struff- All right... that match alone. So. He also, he also made the, uh, he's at least made it to the first page of the futures, uh, board.
19:40
Your boy- Oh, finally... Jan-Lennard Struff, yeah. Was he not on there before? Yeah, you know, he was a little bit further down, but yeah. He was a little bit further down. He, he cracked the top 10 now.
19:46
He cracked the top 10 for me, Gill, so yeah. Oh, you mean on the outright futures board? Yeah, yeah. I gotcha. So he's 80 to one, 80 to one, but he cracked the top 10. Yeah, he ain't gonna win it all. But, um,
19:55
I'll tell you who, you know, the, we're looking at that futures board, one of those guys is gone. You know who that is? Andrey Rublev is out. Rublev got beaten straight sets this morning- Wow... by Matteo Arnaldi.
20:09
So if you had Andrey Rublev, who, Andrey Rublev's career is, he's a top 10 player that cannot crack the quarterfinal ceiling of any slam, and he didn't get to the quarterfinals here at all. Yeah. So.
20:21
So, uh, remember, remember how I told you yesterday or the day before that I, I was all caught up on my, uh, bets to make to-do list? Oh, yes.
20:29
I lied, 'cause there's one I still haven't made, and I still haven't bet Djokovic. So if you were landed on this, we'll play the whole game. You don't have any bets. Yeah.
20:36
Is there, is, would you be Alcaraz still in the men's? I, I don't feel any differently about the men's side right now- Okay... than I did before the tournament, which is to say, quite honestly,
20:47
that the only bets to make are, are long shots like on a Struff. But I, like, Alcaraz, Djokovic, Sinner, Sascha Zverev, Casper Ruud, I stop there. I don't go to Tsitsipas.
20:59
I thought, I thought odds movement was a little interesting on these. Like, he, Djokovic kept getting longer, and then yesterday got cut down to four to one. Yeah, but, like, not to any significant degree.
21:08
No, nothing significant. Yeah. I just, I, I mean, there's just injuries you don't know, and these guys are, you know, Alcaraz dropped a set to some dude the other day. And you're like, well,
21:18
you know, Djokovic didn't look as sharp as he could in some of these. So you just know there's a little wobble in all these guys. Okay. Little wobble.
21:25
Um, but they're all intact so far, and, uh, this tournament will go through the end of next week, you know. Rain, ra- the rain should be gone finally.
21:33
This is finally the day where the rain is over, so they're all caught up now. So that's where all that stands. Um, you're gonna make that Djokovic bet? I mean, I've meant to for a week. [laughs] We'll see. Uh.
21:46
It is, but we, we, we don't talk about it as much anymore. I feel like Gill hears me bring it up a lot off air. But, like, I, some of these with the Grand Slams, I just don't rush to make.
21:55
Now would be the time, I think you gotta, probably gotta get it in. But the, like, you know, for those top seeded guys, it's so rare.
22:02
A, the, A, they don't, either they don't lose in that first week and their odds barely move.
22:06
So I'm not rushing to bet these guys sometimes 'cause I don't wanna be killed by the biggest upset ever, and I got a ticket on them already. So yeah, I, I, I think I'm going to.
22:16
I've bet Djokovic at the French, like, five years in a row, which, what has he won, like, two of those or something? Two or three of those? It's been pretty good. Uh, my Twitter is overrun with, uh, MLB June.
22:27
People really like these monthly markets, and- They're cool. It's good that books keep doing them. Yeah. Shout, shout out to Ce- shout out to Caesars, William Hill. Shout out to, uh, Circuit for continuing to do them.
22:37
Um, always a fascinating market, and really the correct meter of time for a baseball bet, in my opinion. We'll get to mine later on the show, or on the other end. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:59
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23:27
Back on a numbers game live from Bar Canada at the D's, Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin, Bar Canada, the Barrage. Uh, thanks for tuning in. We get tweets at Beating the Book. Always appreciate the feedback.
23:37
Best listeners in the game, Kelly. Have I said that before? 'Cause I mean it. I think I've said it before. It's how you say it off air. [laughs] Don't say it. See if I can believe you. I'm kidding, I'm kidding.
23:46
I, I only laud, I adore, um, what we've created here. I do. I love. And, and by the way- Like, oh boy, Jamie Lev, if you could hear what he says about you off the air.
23:57
[laughs] We do do the b- uh, we should say this, we do have a bit, though, that I like to do, is when we know that the guests are listening to us before they come on.
24:05
I do like to do the thing where I go, "Boy, Jason Weigart is such a... Oh, hey, Jason." There, we like, we like doing that. Uh, we get tweets at Beating the Book. Mr. Lucky, honestly, the best listeners in the game.
24:15
By the way, for those of you who show up after the show and say hi to us, we so enjoy and appreciate that. Thank you for doing that as well and taking the time. Mr.
24:23
Lucky, "The Dodgers' June schedule is highly favorable." He's calling his shot. Brian Schaefer, "Gill, take the Dodgers most wins month of June." Oh, people like the Dodgers.
24:34
The Dodgers are the short shot, and I will go into my reasons as to, uh, you know, I considered them. I did. I don't like the price They are the short shot for a reason. I just don't, I just don't like the price.
24:47
But we'll get into it. I have my June bets coming up on the show, and I don't think you can anticipate it. Uh, let's see.
24:55
Jay, Touchdown Jesus says that, uh, Drew and Julian Edlow are the lone wolves on the Boston Celtics so far. Okay. I'm sure there are others. I get it. But, yeah. I get it.
25:07
Uh, Brad Billups, what are the best bets for June MLB total wins? Uh, non-shock. Oh, I'll get there. I'll let you know what I bet already and what I'm gonna add to it here coming up. Table Max, uh, proud to be a...
25:17
Oh, this was yesterday.
25:17
We were talking about, you know, with Crack, how many people made the bet, what percentage of, of numbers game listeners would make the bet that Fezzik, uh, recommended yesterday, week one of the NFL.
25:28
A week one NFL total. We got a bunch of tweets of people like, "I'm part of the 1%." So here's another one, Table Max, saying he's proud to be part of it. He made it.
25:36
Under 49 and a half on the Jaguars Dolphins, week one tilt. Uh, Jamie Leyva, "Where does the MLB monthly team win totals end and Gil begin? [laughs] Have a fantastic weekend, gentlemen." [laughs] Where does perk end...
25:48
Where does the suit end and perk begin? Uh, and New York Morty, tuned in all week to Angie from France. No days off, even on vacation. Thank you, New York Morty.
25:57
He said, "Some tennis to start the week at Roland Garros and finished off in south of France. Watch out for Chapeau upset today versus Orcards." Wow. How about that? That's a, that's a trip. How about that?
26:09
Did you go to Philippe Chatrier? That's what, that's what we wanna know. Um, I have a... Can we bring in Jason Weingarten for this?
26:15
Ladies and gentlemen, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, it's our buddy Jason Weingarten from Under a Cloud of Smoke at Spreadapedia. How you doing, Jason? Good morning. How's it going, guys? Going very well.
26:25
I would like to air my new airlines and air travel pet peeve to the both of you.
26:30
[laughs] I d- I believe I am going to cover new airline air travel pet peeves in the next 30 seconds, and that is this: when you get a text from an airlines that says your flight is delayed, let's say it's delayed an hour, like I did yesterday, like I already have today, Kelly, your flight is delayed an hour, and then they come back with subsequent texts bringing that time back towards your original, uh, departure time.
26:57
So first you were de- late, delayed an hour, then, oh, by the way, you're only delayed 33 minutes. Oh, by the way, now you're only delayed 18 minutes, and oh, now, by the way, you're only delayed four minutes.
27:08
They cannot do this. You are killing the passenger because the passenger has in their mind the f- or her mind, the flight is delayed.
27:16
Now, the passenger is not processing it's basically on time, and they're late to where they have to go because you set them up for failure. It happens all the time now.
27:26
I've already ordered two more drinks, and now I'm missing my flight. It's a problem, yeah. Or some people are chilling at home before they go. Has this happened to you, Jason? Many time.
27:35
I, I, I don't leave the airport, or I don't leave for the airport till the last minute. So, uh, yeah, I've, I've been in this situation. He doesn't sound as, uh, upset about it as I do.
27:45
I do feel like it's, I feel like it's a newer thing. I al- I do... I al- I also don't know what percentage of people actually would be outraged like me and you are, I feel like. [laughs] Well, it's not, it's not outrage.
27:54
It's you're going to make me miss a flight, though. It, it's, I mean, it's outrage to that extent, right? Eventually, you're gonna miss one 'cause yesterday I was like, "Oh, wait, I'm basically on time. I'm late now."
28:02
Yeah. So, you know, they gotta stop doing that. Anyway, Jason, uh, you, uh, texted me something yesterday. Nelly Korda. Nelly Korda, who has dominated the LPGA Tour this year, she went into the water three times.
28:15
She ends up carding a 10 over par yesterday, um, in the, uh, in the LPGA tournament. And so you're getting excited 'cause you've got Rou Xiang, and then Rou Xiang goes out and posted eight over.
28:28
[laughs] What had happened? Ni- uh, nine over now. Oh, was it n- Was it a nine over? I think it was eight over, and now she's one over for the day, so she's nine over now, I think. Oh, no, maybe you're right.
28:36
It's like back, back to eight. Back to eight. You're, you're right. Maybe it was nine and then went to eight. Either way, um, wow, that's a missed opportunity, huh? Yeah.
28:44
Uh, the, the crazy thing is there's a chance that one or both of them still make the cut today. The, uh, the wind is picking up there. It's a, it's a proper golf test I guess you could, you could call it. Uh- Yeah...
28:57
I think there's one, two, three, five players under par right now. By the end of the day, wouldn't be surprised if that number drops to one or two or even zero.
29:06
Um, so there's still a chance either one of them or both get inside the cut.
29:11
Um, but yeah, this point in week does not look like Rose is going to capitalize on, uh, Nelly's early misfortune, and it's gonna cost me some money. And you were correct.
29:22
It was nine over, and then she's one under for the day. Uh, T-109 for Rou Xiang. That was one of those where when Jason sent it to me I was like, "Oh, I forgot to bet her."
29:31
And then by the end of the day I was like, "That's why I didn't bet her." [laughs] Yeah, but I'm telling you, they, they still... I'm telling you, they both might still make the cut. Yeah. There's a lot of golf left.
29:39
Lot of golf left. Lot of golf left. What'd you bet in baseball today, sir? Let's see. I bet, I think I have two, two bets. I bet Baltimore minus 140, and I faded the, uh, oh, the Giant. Your Giants, Gil.
29:55
Oh, that's not allowed. I'm sorry, but I took, I took the Yankees minus 127. Did you catch any of the Yankees game last night with my bets? I did not. I did not. Yankees, Yankees Angels.
30:05
I watched a little bit of it after the, uh, basketball was over, and, uh, I was actually...
30:11
You know, I haven't got to watch the Yankees a ton this year, but, uh, you know, Soto hits a home run, and it's just one of those moments where I just kind of thought again, "Do you believe we just let the Yankees get Juan Soto- Oh, dude...
30:22
for like nothing?" It's- I, I'll tell you- What, what's going on? I think about it every day because I'm on a, uh, I, I always talk about I'm on a, uh, text ex- uh, text thread with, uh, Will Hill and Chris Fallica.
30:33
Chris is coming up on the show in a bit. They are diehard Yankees fans. They talk how happy they are that, that Yankees baseball is so great again because of Juan Soto.
30:44
And I'm just thinking to myself, I'm like, "You mean Washington Nationals great Hall of Famer Juan Soto?" [laughs] Like, it just drives me crazy that this is how Yankees, this is...
30:53
Yankees fans just have this entitlement to these players, right? And, and you're right. How did, how did the world let them get him? Yeah, just let 'em have, let 'em have 'em and- Yeah...
31:03
they're, they're l- they're looking great. I, I'm, you know, I was worried at the beginning of the season. I guess my, my concern over Aaron Judge's toe has been slightly unfounded. Yeah. But, uh- Me too. Me too. Me too.
31:16
Yeah, I'm just shaking my head if you can see me right now. I'm like, "Looks like I got that wrong." But they... looks like a good team. I'm, I'm excited to, to watch some more of them on this West Coast swing.
31:25
Uh, Juan Soto is who we thought he was, and like I said, if, if he stays healthy, I don't know how he's not gonna be the MVP. I don't care what anybody else does.
31:32
It's just gonna be Yankee Juan Soto wins the MVP, you know? Yeah, I know.
31:36
I'm glad we had that, uh, that Jose Ramirez exchange the other day because it is a, again, uh, and I'm, I'm the captain of this in the last year, great bets that finish second, right, on a lot of these.
31:46
And, and yeah, no matter how good Jose Ramirez is in, um, in Cleveland, all things being equal, they're gonna give it to the, the Yankee bias and to Juan Soto.
31:56
The other thing that, that occurs to me about the Soto thing is, and we've said this about so many acquisitions of the Yankees through the years, New York's not for everybody, right? They get...
32:05
They, their, their trajectory of their career sometimes changes, like the big stage is not for them. It doesn't appear to be at all a thing [laughs] for Juan Soto. He's like, "Whatever, New York." Oh, yeah.
32:17
No, I mean, like you see it across town with the Mets, like you have a guy like maybe Francisco Lindor, and it just isn't, isn't working out as, as great as it could be.
32:25
And then you see Juan Soto, and it's just like he's always been destined to be a Yankee almost. It's- Yeah... yeah. Anything- Some guys, you just, they look better in pinstripes.
32:34
Anything else besides the Yankees against the Giants? You mentioned one other there. I do. Um, well, actually, it's somewhat Yankee related.
32:42
I'm, I'm hesitant to, uh, to give it out 'cause I'm, I'm not done betting it yet. But I have a- Okay... I have a rookie, I have a Rookie of the Year bet on, uh, on a Yankees player, and it's not Luis Gil.
32:53
I guess you can, uh, draw conclusions from that as, uh, as you'd like. But I've been heavily betting it this week. Yeah.
33:00
Well, it shouldn't be Luis Gil because, again, Luis Gil is just destined for regression if you, uh, immerse yourself in the FanGraphs page. Um, could he pull a Blake Snell and do it for the whole year?
33:10
I guess anything's possible. Um- But none of these pitchers, and we've seen it year, year... Oh, we gotta go. We'll talk about it next week, Gil. Wait. I'll, I'll talk some more about it.
33:18
Give us, give us the headline of your thought, though. We'll tease it for next time. The rookie pitchers don't get enough innings to win Rookie of the Year. There's a lot of value on the Rookie of the Year board.
33:26
We gotta dive into it. All right. We'll do that next time. Coming back. Thank you, Jason. Appreciate it. No problem. Have a good weekend. You too. Coming back, UFC 302 with Jordan Sherwood. Oh. Oh. Oh.
33:38
Is this gonna be good. Next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. We are so close to crowning an NBA champ.
33:55
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34:03
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34:10
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now and use code VSIN. The crown is yours. Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin live from Bar Canada at the D.
34:19
Uh, one of my favorite things in the world, I was just saying off air, is to hear Kelly Bidlin and our next guest, Jordan Sherwood, talk about their old radio days in Palm Beach, Florida. Oh, they wax about it.
34:29
[laughs] They rhapsodize about it. It's a beautiful thing. Jordan comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, Jordan Sherwood, that is, to talk UFC 302. Good morning to you, sir.
34:39
Always, uh, a pleasure, Gil, and yes, always a joy to talk West Palm Beach, Florida with, uh, one Kelly Bidlin. [laughs] Uh, going old school. Off air. Not for on air content. Oh. Off air content.
34:49
The Real Housewives of West Palm Beach, these guys. It's phenomenal. Oh, man. Gil, we had, uh... W- when were we talking about Hard Rock with Crack? Was that this week or last week? Mm, last week, I think.
34:58
One of the first times I ever hung out with Jordan, I, I, I was basic- I was basically asked to show him a good time, you know, 'cause he was new in town. [laughs] And we ended up at the Hard Rock way late.
35:07
One, one of the, one of my favorite memories of Jordan Sherwood. We ain't like the same Palm Beach anymore. [laughs] Jordan, by the way, is the, is the co-host of the Unnamed MMA podcast.
35:14
You can follow him on Twitter @woodonESPN1000. Before we talk UFC 302, uh, I would be remiss if I, uh, just ignored what you're wearing. You are wearing a Chicago Bears top.
35:25
You are a Bears fan, and the Bears are going to be featured on Hard Knocks. How? 'Cause I've always wondered, like if, if Washington ever got on this, I think me and my g- buddies would just go crazy.
35:37
How do you guys feel about this as Bears fans? Are you happy? Are you, are you mixed in your feelings? We, we kind of knew that was c- this was coming. Uh, the reports were that, you know, they were one of what?
35:50
Four teams available for Hard Knocks. They've got all the storylines of the off-season with Caleb Williams, the additions, uh, the stadium discussion that's going on with the team and the city. So it's about time.
36:02
W- basically, Bears fans want the spotlight. They like the attention. And look, it's gonna give them a, a little bit more of an inside look of Caleb Williams and how he's, uh, maturing as a rookie.
36:13
So yeah, we're, we're absolutely excited, uh, as Bears fans that they're gonna be featured on Hard Knocks. Okay. All right. Um, Ca- what did I say after the draft?
36:21
Caleb Williams, certainly not lacking for confidence, that I will say. Yes. That is correct. I am very interested to see what his personality is like on a more in-depth, uh, basis. All right.
36:30
UFC 302 in Newark, New Jersey. Um, let us start with the main event, the lightweight title bout between Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier, where Makhachev is a $6 favorite, Poirier +440 on the comeback.
36:45
Uh, for those who don't know, Pa- uh, Makhachev, number one pound for pound fighter, um, hadn't w- hadn't defended this tit- hadn't fought at this, for this title against another lightweight, though.
36:57
Uh, had fought twice, defended twice already against a former featherweight champion, Alexander Volkanovski. Uh, he moved up to the 155 pound belt to do so. And Then you have Poirier.
37:09
We all know him, former inter- uh, interim lightweight champ. This was his third attempt for the 155-pound title. Uh, he beat Benoit Saint Denis. I know you know that, Kelly. Benoit Saint Denis- Yeah...
37:20
uh, by second-round knockout at UFC 299. How are we betting this? And by the way, Jordan, just to, like, w- w- watch, uh, Makhachev's sort of interviews leading up to this, he is not the most cuddly guy in the world.
37:35
Let me just say that. No, I mean, he's, he's there to fight. He, he's there to fight and be a dominating champion. Uh, and look, I, I, I understand why the odds are into place.
37:46
Makhachev is, as you alluded to, Gil, number one in the pound-for-pound rankings as a fighter, and he can do it all. He's not just a grappler. Uh, he's also evolved as a striker.
37:57
And, you know, he is Khabib Nurmagomedov 2.0. He's the protege of Khabib, and Khabib's gonna be in his corner. Uh, so there's a lot of familiarity. Uh, Nurmagomedov defeated Dustin Poirier a few years ago.
38:09
And, and y- yes, you are right, this is Makhachev's technically first title defense against a, a lightweight. But Dustin Poirier, whether he hangs it up or not after this fight, is a future Hall of Famer.
38:21
He's a great boxer, but he's struggled with guys that, that have a grappling, uh, attack, and that is what Islam Makhachev is going to feature, you know, in this fight.
38:31
And I'd love a storybook ending for Dustin Poirier to finally become the lightweight champion of the world, but I don't believe that that's gonna be the case. But the dollar price point of Makhachev is... That, that's...
38:43
You can't lay that. You can't lay 650 on Makhachev to win the fight or, you know, maybe even get, uh, creative.
38:48
So what I'm gonna look at is actually what Makhachev typically does in fights: starts a little bit slow, gets a feel for his opponent, and then goes on the attack.
38:57
And the last two times that Dustin Poirier, uh, has lost, uh, in a, in a title fight, uh, via submission, it's been in the third round. So how about this to get creative? Makhachev to win in round number three. Ooh.
39:11
It's at plus, I think, 600 or 650 on most books. Wow. So, uh, you know, Dustin Poirier's a tough out, and I would love to see him win the championship, but I just can't see that happening.
39:21
So the Makhachev to win likely inside the distance, but let's get really creative and say that he wins, uh, in round three. However, I just wanna throw out two things real quick 'cause this is a numbers game.
39:33
Dustin Poirier is 7-0 in his MMA career in the month of June. And we'll get to him in the co-main event.
39:41
The last seven times that Paulo Costa has been featured, not in the main event, but in a co-main event or on a main card, the defending champion has lost in all seven instances.
39:54
If you believe in the numbers, Dustin Poirier is the new champion of the world on Saturday night. Is there anything meaningful to that June stat, honestly, Jordan? Not really, no. I think so. I mean, we can [laughs]...
40:04
Yeah. Yeah, I mean, a fight- It's true... a fight's a fight. A matchup is a matchup. Yeah. But look, if you want...
40:08
If, if you like the play and you want a little bit more confidence backing Dustin Poirier, the dude is 7-0 in the month of June. Yeah. You're absolutely right, though.
40:15
Makhachev, that's exactly who he reminds you of, Nurmagomedov, not only in terms of his fighting, but just his attitude as well. And then they both go out and they take care of business.
40:24
Um, yeah, Co- Daniel Cormier was, was talking to M- Makhachev, and he was like, "Yeah, every... Any, like, throwaway question we'd ask, instead of rolling with the punch, he would, like, challenge you back."
40:33
So he'd be like, "This Poirier match is really gonna, like, you know, salt your, your s- your status." [laughs] He's like, "Why would you say that?" [laughs] It's just great.
40:41
All right, co-main, Sean Strickland, Paulo Costa, with Strickland a big favorite here. Yeah, I mean, look, I think that this card is extremely chalky.
40:48
I, I understand why Sean Strickland i- is as big of a favorite as he is. He's got great boxing. Uh, you know, he's got outstanding cardio. He's gonna be in the face of Paulo Costa from the onset.
41:00
This is a five-round fight, even though it's a co-main event and not for a championship. Uh, and he's, he's the former champion. And questions have been always asked about Paulo Costa: Where's his head at?
41:10
Is this guy motivated? Uh, this'll be the first time he actually fights twice in a calendar year since he made his UFC debut, I think, in 2017. So it's been a while since Paulo Costa has been consistent.
41:22
But the game plan for Sean Strickland is to be in the face, use the jab, and, and outbox and outwork Paulo Costa.
41:27
But here's the thing: The last two times that Sean Strickland ha- has lost a fight, uh, he, he's lost it a- against guys that, uh, carry power a- and can go hard for five rounds. Uh, Jared Cannonier comes to mind.
41:40
Similar game plan, similar type of style stylistically for Paulo Costa. So for me, uh, I, I, I could understand backing Strickland, put him into a parlay.
41:49
But I think actually there's some value on Paulo Costa to land more of the significant damage strikes throughout a five-round fight, and win this fight via decision at plus 850. Whoo. It's a flyer.
42:02
It's not a totally recommended confidence pick, but, like, Strickland in a kickboxing match, which he's gonna do against Paulo Costa, has struggled against guys that are powerful punchers. So I like Paulo Costa.
42:13
If he's right, his mind is right, he's set, uh, and, and apparently he is 'cause he's fighting consistently now, I think he could steal an upset here. This would be the one upset pick I look at in the main card.
42:22
Jordan is not messing around. Makhachev round three plus 650, Costa via decision plus 850. Whoo. All right, you got two more plays on the main card. We got, uh, 90 seconds. What do you got here?
42:35
Yeah, I, I, I like the matchup on the, uh, main card opener, Randy Brown against Alessio Dos Santos. I think Randy Brown is gonna utilize his athleticism, his reach, uh, and just outpoint, outwork Dos Santos.
42:46
Just avoid the phone booth fight. He's a dollar 70, uh, favorite on the money line. So I like him. And Kevin Holland returning to middleweight, uh, against Mikail Oezdemir.
42:56
Oezdemir has struggled at times with some takedowns. Uh, M- Oezdemir's gonna have to work the body and look for a knockout.
43:02
H- Holland's got a granite chin, and as long as he's just not having conversation with his opponent... 'Cause for some reason, Kevin Holland likes to talk to his opponent and, like, really get into dialogue.
43:12
[laughs] Concentrate on what you're doing, Kevin Holland. Get the takedown. And Oezdemir has been submitted in two of his three current losses in his UFC career.
43:20
Holland's got some good darts chokes, some good rear naked chokes. So I like Holland via submission to get some plus money. Uh, on Kevin Holland to win the fight. All right. Um, did we go through all four?
43:30
Did we get them all in? Yes. I think so. We did. I think so, yeah. Three dogs, three dogs and a favorite. That, that's another, like... Don't these guys realize we're betting on them? Stop talking and fight. Come on.
43:39
[laughs] Just before you, before J- before Kelly even got to that, I was gonna say, Kelly, you love Jordan Spieth in golf so much- [laughs]... Kevin Holland is your new favorite UFC fighter. Shut up and fight. Come on.
43:50
[laughs] Shut up and fight. Stop talking. Jordan, appreciate it. Congratulations on the Bears on Hard Knocks, man. All right. Thanks, fellas. Always a pleasure. Jordan Sherwood, everybody, talking UFC 302.
44:00
Uh, again, you can follow Jordan on Twitter @woodonESPN1000, co-host of the Unnamed MMA Podcast. Still to come, MLB most wins June. We will get to that in hour number two. But next, Chris Felica.
44:15
People call him The Bear. Um, he's gonna not only talk Champions League with us, but he's also got a couple college football season win totals. That's next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
44:33
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