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May 31, 2024
A Numbers Game | May 31, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 31, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, visa.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. We appreciate you hanging out with us here on the Numbers Game.
0:17
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, best listeners in the game. Uh, we appreciate it. Numbers Game, presented by ZYN nicotine pouches, America's number one nicotine pouch. As always, you can find out more at zyn.com.
0:28
That's Z-Y-N.com. Bill Ade's, uh, favorite is the wintergreen. He swears by wintergreen ZYN. Mm. Just wanna point that out. Yeah. Shout out to wintergreen. Several flavors to choose from.
0:38
Several flavors to choose from, but he's a wintergreen kind of guy. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, you may know him as The Bear.
0:43
Uh, we know him as Christopher Fellica, uh, Fox Sports, all, all sort of court betting expert, to use the tennis term. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Chris? I, I'm, I'm okay.
0:57
I'm, I'm going through some things in terms of figuring out how to maximize a ticket that I have, and, a- a- and you, you influenced me this morning by, uh, checking, by looking to see if I was able to play, um, most wins in the month of June- Ah...
1:10
on the, uh, the Caesar, Will Ha- Will Hill app in Massachusetts. So, uh, after the show, after I'm done here, I think I'm gonna take a ride and go make a couple of plays here on the, uh, on most wins in June.
1:19
There you go. I think I'm gonna- Yeah... I'm, I'm gonna go play, uh, I'm gonna play the Twins at 16 to 1. Mm-hmm.
1:25
They got, they got, they got 16 games versus Pirates, Oakland, Colorado, and Tampa, and I'm gonna go play the Mariners at 11 to 1, and they get that holy trinity of the, uh, the White Sox, Marlins, and A's.
1:38
So those are the two that I was gonna take a look at and play. Okay. Twins and, Twins and who was the second one? Mariners. Mariners. Twins and Mariners.
1:45
Uh, we're showing the Twins and Mariners as the fifth and fourth shots respectively at Circa- Circa... anywhere- Yep... on those. And, and by the way, that's the o- that's also a thing.
1:53
Also, you know, look at the Circa odds juxtaposed. I know you don't have Circa available for you- Right... Chris, but for the p- people that do have both available- Mm-hmm...
2:00
look at the odds juxtaposition, and, uh, the, obviously the rule, the rules again really matter.
2:05
Like, the, it always comes down to, 'cause remember last month I was probably in a better position having the tiebreakers of Circa, whereas this month it was a worse position to have on the client. Right.
2:15
So you have to- Right... sort of think that, and, and we'll get into all that strategy coming up when we talk about it, because,
2:21
and we'll get into that, but it's like having more games can be a double-edged sword kind of thing. We'll, we'll talk about it a little later on.
2:27
All right, uh, let us begin with the Champions League final and what your bet is there, sir. Yeah. It, it, it's a tough one for me being that I am, I am not a, uh, Real Madrid supporter or anything at all.
2:39
They, they've, they've ripped my heart out in the past, and I'm not a fan of these super teams that basically go out and just buy whoever they want.
2:46
And you could really make an argument that neither of these two teams, uh, Real Madrid or Dortmund, should, should be here.
2:52
Uh, if you looked over the, the two-legged tie between Dortmund and PSG, I, I, I mean, the, the, there's nothing that indicated that Dortmund should have gotten through, yet they did, and, uh, Bayern Munich, uh, had an absolute collapse, uh, in Madrid in that second leg that allowed, uh, Mad- Madrid to get here.
3:09
But these two teams are here. Uh, they will be playing for the, for the championship tomorrow, and, uh, uh, everyone who knows me knows that there, there isn't a bet I like more than a high-stake soccer match under.
3:19
I'll put under two and a half. [laughs] Uh, they, in the la- in, in the last five, uh, Champions League finals there've been a total of six goals.
3:27
Uh, the, the last, the last four have been one-nil, and the one before that was two-nil, so, uh, th- these are matches with so much at stake.
3:34
Uh, teams do not want to allow, uh, to g- to have a big mistake in this game to, to allow an easy opportunity.
3:40
So, uh, under two and a half was the, uh, w- was play number one, and then I also played Vini Jr., uh, anytime goalscorer at plus 130. I, I think this has a, uh, a one-nil, two-nil, uh, Real Madrid-type win.
3:53
Uh, Vini Jr.'s gotten most of the big goals for Real Madrid, uh, this year. He scored in the Champions League, Champions League final against Liverpool, uh, a couple of years ago.
4:01
A fantastic player that I don't think he gets the, uh, recognition worldwide as one of the elite players in the world that he should. So, uh, it, it feels like a one-nil, two-nil, uh, Real Madrid win with Vini Jr.
4:12
at least getting one goal. Okay. Let us shift to college football. Never too early- Mm... to talk college football. No.
4:19
Um, before we get to your, uh, season win totals, refresh folks' memory, 'cause I know you, you had a, you had a really definitive opinion on this before most did it, at least in my sphere anecdotally. The playoff.
4:32
T- we are now moving into a whole different realm of college football. Um, was this generally something that you're happy about, or generally something that you're actually sad to see the old days go?
4:43
I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm kind of sad about it. Lo- look, it's, I don't wanna say I'm sad about it, because more college football games are, are never really a bad thing as someone who loves the sport. Uh, but at the same time,
4:56
you're really not increasing the number of teams that are going to win the national, that, that can win the national championship. Um, so I am, I'm not, I'm not necessarily in love with it.
5:07
I, I still think that if, if you look at this year, it's hard for me to make a, a case between anyone other than Georgia, Ohio State, if you wanna maybe throw Oregon in there as a team that could win.
5:16
But that, that, that's really, uh, about it. So I'm not necessarily a, uh, a fan of the expansion. I think it should've been hard to get in.
5:24
I th- I think the, the discussions and the debate about who's four, who's five, uh, I think they were great for the sport, a- and now you're looking at t- look- looking at games that, and rivalries, like the Ohio State and Michigan game li- likely is not going to mean anything ever again in terms of, uh, but both games are gonna be in the playoffs, or the playoff I should say.
5:42
But that's why that game mattered so much last year with, with Ohio State and Michigan.
5:46
The stakes of these regular season games are, are nowhere near as g- as great as they once were, uh, because of the, uh, the expansion now.
5:55
But this is what we have, and I, I understand why, why ESPN, uh, paid what they did for it, and people are gonna watch it. I'm gonna watch it, and you're gonna watch it, and we're gonna bet on it- Yep...
6:04
and we're gonna yell and scream about it. Yep. So, uh, it is what it is. Yep. Bring back the BCS. [laughs] That's what I say. Let's roll it back. Bring back the BCS and the computers.
6:12
Oh, there are people that, there are people that are calling for that, Kelly. Yeah. Uh, all right, you got one over, you got one under. Let's start with the over. Yeah, I played Syracuse over six and a half.
6:22
And I know people are probably like, "What the hell? You're playing Syracuse over six and a half?" I mean, it's a team that won six games last year.
6:29
Um, br- yeah, they bring in Fran Brown who is a really, really good recruiter, uh, a lot of ties to, to the South. He, uh, brought in a couple of, uh, transfers from, from Georgia at wide receiver.
6:41
You, you, you brought in Kyle McCord, uh, the quarterback at Ohio State last year. Now, maybe he didn't pan out at Ohio State, but it's still a massive upgrade for Syracuse at the quarterback position.
6:50
Uh, of the schedule should allow them potentially to be four, 4-0, 5-0 maybe to start. Um, this is... Look, this is the ACC. We're not, we're not talking about a, a powerhouse-type league here.
7:02
So, they got some other winnable games later in the year. But I think Syracuse could be a, uh, a sneaky good team this year, and, uh, and certainly press for bowl eligible.
7:12
Certainly, I think they get to six, and I think there's a, uh, an excellent chance that they get to seven. Yeah.
7:16
And I'm just, you know, I, I know it's May, and we're looking over a schedule, and we're doing the whole, "Uh, this game they should win, this game they should lose" kind of thing. Mm-hmm.
7:23
Hardest game on there is probably at NC State. Uh, it doesn't look like that hard of a schedule, quite frankly. No. No, no, it doesn't. Yeah. And that, and that's what... The ACC is just kind of a- Yeah...
7:32
a mishmash conglomeration of a lot of, like, just averageness, for lack of a better word. Okay. And you have an under on UCLA. Yeah. I don't, I don't think UCLA is gonna be very good this year, uh, at all.
7:46
Certainly a lot of turnover on the coaching staff, but turnover on the roster as well. Uh, lo- losing Denton Linn, the op- defensive coordinator to your rival, USC certainly not good losing, uh, uh, Latu, the...
7:58
W- one of the best defensive players in the country. The best, uh, the, the guy who was top defensive player, uh, taken in the draft, unfortunately, much to the, uh, chagrin of us that had tickets.
8:06
And, uh, other, other players. Uh, Ethan Garbers is back at quarterback, but, I, I mean, is he really the guy? I mean, they got a stretch early in the year, uh, I, I think it's LSU, Oregon, Ohio State.
8:19
I, I, I think it's the three games that they have in a row. Like, y- you're gonna lose all three of those games.
8:24
I, I, I just don't know how many stops, uh, this team is gonna get, and how they're gonna hold up, uh, potentially in the trenches on the defensive side of the ball, uh, losing Latu and a lot of the other guys on that defensive side of the ball in the Big 10, where they're gonna go up a lo- against a lot more, uh, physical offensive lines, uh, than they did in the Pac-12.
8:42
So, uh, UCLA under five and a half, Syracuse over six and a half were the, uh, the first two that I fired on. Our buddy Pete Fiutak over at CollegeFootballNews.com, he ranks all of the 134 D1 college football schedules.
8:55
He has UCLA's football schedule as the third-hardest- Ooh. Mm... in the entire nation. Be- behind Florida and who? Who, who does he have two? Flo- good call. Florida's number two, and he has USC as the hardest. Okay.
9:10
Yeah. Okay. USC one, Florida two, UCLA three. By the way, Purdue and Michigan rounding out the top five. Um, I know that Belmont is a week away. I know it's not at Belmont Park, [upbeat music] it's at Saratoga.
9:22
Any preliminary thoughts? Mm-hmm. I- I- I- It's gonna be hard for s- to get past Sierra Leone.
9:28
Uh, w- with Fierceness now out of the race, uh, we, we're still gonna pro- we're either gonna get, uh, Thorpedo Anna or Mystic Dan from Ken McPeek, uh, the Oaks winner and the Derby winner.
9:38
We're gonna get one of those two. But, uh, it, it, it... Sierra Leone just towers over this field.
9:43
So, uh, if you can find a, uh, a fixed odds price on Sierra Leone prior to next week, uh, I think that's probably the best way to, uh, attack this guy.
9:53
It's not gonna be necessarily a big field, so I don't know how much you're gonna...
9:56
How much money you're really gonna be able to make in this race even keying Sierra Leone on top of some tries, hoping for some long shots. But, uh, i- if...
10:03
Th- this weekend I, I actually was looking for some other things to potentially play, uh, and, and give everybody out. So I- Nice... I was looking, I wa- I was looking at Churchill Downs, uh, tomorrow.
10:12
They got some nice stakes races. Uh, the number one horse in the sixth race, Ottoman Fleet, uh, a- at Churchill tomorrow, uh, in the Arlington Stakes. A nine to five morning line.
10:23
Uh, looks like, uh, he should tower over this field. Uh, probably will go off shorter than that again.
10:30
And, and if you look a couple of races later in the, um, in the Regret, uh, the ninth race at Churchill, the number five horse, uh, Poolside With Slim. Uh, it's three old fillies.
10:40
I l- I like betting on these types of horses. Uh, uh, se- broke maiden, went through right into stakes race at Tampa Bay Downs, uh, ran a respectable fourth at six to one. Uh,
10:54
next start at, at Keeneland, kinda led all the way around and then tired. But, but I think going i- back, back here, third start, uh, and, uh, now against winners.
11:05
Uh, eight to one morning line doesn't look like a ton of speed in the race. Uh, Rusty Arnold is a, uh, a trainer who can win, uh, on the turf with a horse at a price.
11:15
So I, I think Poolside With Slim is someone that you might wanna take a look at in this race at base price. Poolside With Slim. That's a great name. When Kelly invites friends over- Like it...
11:23
to his, uh, to his complex, he's like, "You wanna come poolside with Slim?" [laughs] I'm like, "Who's Slim?" He's like, "That's me." That's me. "That's me." Uh, Chris, always appreciate it. Good luck with all the bets.
11:33
Thanks for all the horseplay. You got it. Chris Fallica, everybody, @ChrisFallica, F-A-L-L-I-C-A on the Twitter machine. BearBetsPod is what he does over there at Fox Sports. Check it out.
11:45
John Lagasse, some instant baseball offense next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Back on a numbers game, live from Bar Canada at the Dan Skill Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin. Good Friday morning to you. John Lagasse standing by, also Paul Carr on the Champions League. And yes, June MLB numbers.
12:12
We'll also review our College World Series plays. We get tweets at Betting The Book, always appreciate those. See, Kelly, look what you're doing to me here. He goes... Uh, this is from, uh, Jamie Leyva.
12:20
He goes, "Am I in trouble with Gil?" See? You, you gave him a complex I actually, I told Jamie we're taking away his subscription next. [laughs] Gave him a complex. Mike Stacks, no, Jamie, we love you.
12:29
Mike Stacks, "Gil, if, uh, we're the best listeners in the world, do you think we can get your best sushis pla- uh, sushi place in Vegas?" Oh. That's a fair, fair question. Uh- Through that, you phased pretty well...
12:37
you might, you might, you might have checkmated me there. [laughs] Teasers and parlays, "I think you all forgot the Vsin plus plus plus promo read with code ANG, as in A Numbers Game. A Numbers Game.
12:46
You get monthly baseball plays, meet and greet with Delicious, and most importantly, Gil's secret sushi location. Have a great weekend, gents." But everybody's You have to Venmo me directly for that one.
12:56
By Logic3227, "Gil, I feel your Soto pain. Being in Pittsburgh and watching the Pirates [laughs] trade away Cole and eventually Skeens, all for the promise of a future that never comes."
13:07
I totally thought that was going to Barry Lamar Bonds, you know, leaving the Pirates in free agency and going to his hometown in San Francisco. Um, Screaming A.
13:16
Smith, "10 books in Pennsylvania and no MLB monthly win totals?" That includes ones that have them elsewhere. Yeah. Oh, that's interesting.
13:26
Well, we were talking about this with, like, you know, that stations here says they're gonna have betting here in Nevada on desktops and laptops, and Kelly- It's coming soon, Gil.
13:34
And Kelly, uh, like there's s- there's companies that have that in other states that don't do it in Nevada. Die. Yeah, coming soon. Coming soon. Coming soon. Hold your breath.
13:42
Uh, let's see, a Nash, last name Nash, says, "Poolside with Slim sounds more like a, uh, pickup line Kelly and Jordan would use [laughs] down in West Palm Beach." [laughs] They totally use that.
13:51
You are so on top of that. That's awesome. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, uh, you remember, uh, Vinnie Johnson from the Bad Boy Pistons is the Microwave. Instant offense. This is instant offense on A Numbers Game.
14:01
It's John Lagasse, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. He is the, uh, host of the Court Stats podcast, and an MLB and NFL writer. Don't sleep on the NFL side, uh, for The Athletic.
14:12
You can follow him on Twitter @JohnLagasse. That's Lag-hezz-uh, H-E-Z-Z-A. What's happening, Johnny? Hope them phonics work for me. No, thank you. What is going, what's up? What's going down? Gil, I missed you.
14:23
You can tell every, every week the volume gets a little bit higher. I'm starting to move in the chair a little bit more. I'm getting back to myself. I got some good medical news the other day, man. Oh, good for you.
14:32
There is nothing like it. Nothing like it. People, appreciate every single day. I won't kill you with the mushiness. Appreciate every day and stop arguing with idiots on the internet. That's my best advice.
14:42
[laughs] Do you do that? Do you do that a lot? Do you argue with idiots on the internet? No, but I had... No, but believe it or not, I had done that. We're going back years.
14:49
I'm a little older maybe than I look, but yeah, no, what a waste of your time.
14:52
No one ever was sitting on their deathbed and was like, "Man, I wish I yelled more at Joe7496 about the Pirates' swinging strike rate," you know? No, I, I even go one step further.
15:01
If I, if I have people, you know, being idiots towards me on the internet, I don't even know about it. Like, I don't even see it, so, like, they're just, [laughs] they're just doing it in the wind, enjoying themselves.
15:11
Um, all right- Well, those of us who you don't answer on Twitter know better. Oh, see? [laughs] Hey, listen, if, whatever it- He's back...
15:17
whatever it takes to avoid, whatever it takes to avoid that negativity, man, that's what you gotta do.
15:21
Because, again, if we're gonna bet every day, yeah, I talk about the numbers and the stats, but there is a methodology and a sustainability to attitude that I think really matters to keep yourself in the arena every single day, right?
15:32
See how we kind of took that fun and games into something that people can actually use? It really is the truth. If you're gonna bet every single day, you gotta have a good attitude.
15:38
You have to enjoy what you're doing because you need to be sustainable and avoid, when you lose, like, overreacting and over-leveraging and making mistakes, staying within the process. So here we go.
15:46
Let's bo- we're back on track, just like that. Wow, Lagasse is back, everybody. Yeah, John don't- On fire... John, don't let that stuff bother you.
15:52
There's nothing more cowardly than the quote-unquote courage of anonymity, trust me. Yeah. Oh, wow, well put. Yeah. Uh, all right, baseball. Yeah. What are you looking at today?
16:02
All right, first things first, uh, give me the Guardians. Although I would say to a kind of macro view, it's not just me, I've been hearing it from other kind of town sharps and the like that
16:11
I think it has to do with the inception of legalized betting, widespread betting, where the public generally, this is something you talk about all the time, the public loves favorites, the public loves overs.
16:20
We're seeing a lot of juice to baseball favorites, maybe more so than ever, and it's created an interesting problem of then, you know, you're either paying a lot of juice, minus 170, minus 180, for teams that should probably be minus 130, or having to cover the run line.
16:37
That's one of these cases, but I am comfortable with the run line. Let's dive right into it. I like the Guardians covering the one and a half full game. We're getting plus 135. I think I might have even seen plus 140.
16:46
It's my boy Tanner Bibee, the youngster on the bump, against Patrick Corbin for the Nats, who is a living testament that sometimes salary equals playing time. This guy really, it's none of it's performance-based.
16:56
He's through 16 and a third. It's a 6 ERA, 1.7 WHIP, OPS north of 900. I mean, a lot of these numbers are really, I mentioned unsustainable, this is unsustainable. A 5% KBB, 24 CSW, 19% WHIP, that's not gonna do it.
17:09
He's pitching to content, 49% hard hit. I mean, it's been really bad. You gotta give me the Guards. The offense is humming right now.
17:16
I know you were doing a great job highlighting how well they were doing in terms of run differential. The pitching was carrying a lot of the load to start. Now the offense really starting to come on.
17:24
They are crushing lefties.
17:26
Last 175 PAs, they're actually second in runs, 350 OBP, that'll play, 200 ISO, so they're getting extra base hits, plus the double-digit walk rate and top three pull rate, number one in team WARBA.
17:39
So all the kind of things that Corbin does poorly, right? Sometimes he falls behind, then misses, and then has to enter the zone without great stuff. You gotta like José Ramírez today. Even David Fry has been great.
17:51
He has, yep. I don't think the Nats... Yeah, I don't think the Nats really stand much of a chance. The bullpen to a man, not very good. Cleveland Guardians bullpen, one of the best in the league.
17:59
212 innings on the season. That's a 2.5 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP with a sub 200 batting average. So ha- given the, that we have the three phase edge, 'cause Bibee, rough start.
18:10
I think he's about three quality starts in a row. We're starting to see what they like so much, and of course, something again you talk about, the Guardians pitching development is very good.
18:18
And that is a good place to decide where to put those chips when you wanna buy low, right? Do you believe in your organization? Do you believe that they'll maximize the talent?
18:28
And the Guardians have kind of proven that to us. So I think Bibee's getting up off the mat. I just think all the kind of trends are working. Give me the Guardians more than two.
18:36
Over Washington plus 140 All right, there you go. By the way, Guardians helped along by a seven and one, one run record in the month of May. Um, I don't kn- listen, I've...
18:45
They have been- The bullpen, so good They've b- yes, they've been amazing and, and Manuel Claesse specifically, but they've been amazing in the March, April, and May markets even though they didn't get there in either.
18:54
Um, th- they have a very, as you alluded to, a very sneaky good batting order. I don't agree with Adam Burke, who is the glue that holds this whole operation together.
19:03
Uh, he's a Guardians fan, and so I think he, he's somewhat defeatist on it because he's, he's used to the pain of it. But the offense is really good. The bullpen by and large is good.
19:13
The, their only weakness is starting pitching. Bibee's not part of that, but they do have a couple gas cans that are in that rotation, and they don't really have a way of sort of replacing it right now.
19:23
So I don't, I don't... Listen, do I expect them to maintain this rate of, uh, wins, uh, this, this, this win percentage for the whole year? I don't. But I do expect them to be a post-season team, a playoff team for sure.
19:34
Yeah. Uh- Probably part of the problem had been Bibee and Mackenzie, and I think there's an argument to be made that the worst could be behind us.
19:41
It's not a guarantee, but again, I just tend to put my faith in what we've seen. Yeah And if, right, if Mackenzie is the worry, there's gonna be 25 ball clubs that wish they had him right now.
19:50
All right, you got the run line on the Guardians. You have another run line. Yeah, I know.
19:54
That's, it's not something that I've always been into, betting run lines, but again, this year you gotta be malleable, and I'm not just gonna start smashing into bad prices that don't work out with my model.
20:03
So I've got another big win. We're gonna go with the Boston Red Laundry. They're somewhere up in the Northeast from what I understand. Tanner Houck on the mound against the Tigrays.
20:11
And Kenta Maeda, you know, one of the things that I am taking a gold star on my big nose was keeping an eye on the off season, again, pitching development always at the center of my work.
20:21
When the Red Sox brought in Kyle Boddy, the Driveline founder, I had a feeling that they might take an uptick. That rotation has been just phenomenal.
20:30
Probably the biggest over performer from a macro standpoint in the league. So give me Tanner Houck. I mean, a 1.9 ERA,.99 whip. He has been an absolute revelation, just, just brilliant. F- I mean, the ball rate at 31%.
20:43
I've been trying to use ball rate over walk rate, though it's a four and a half walk rate. He's been great. 20 KBB, everything you're looking for. Keeping it down, not giving up home runs, just everything you wanna see.
20:52
Maeda's been a struggle. We're actually gonna sell the rip, right? The opposite of buying the dip. I'm not buying what he's selling. He's come up off a good start. 5.8 ERA, 1.30 whip.
21:00
The OPS at, like, 850, but the expected ERA near five. Single digit KBB, single digit swing and strike, all the stuff we generally go after. Double digit barrel, more than two homer, nine 400 wOBAM on contact.
21:13
Yeah, just give me the Red Sox to kind of demolish these guys.
21:15
Also, if you don't get it early, if you notice, if I play for the run line, a very important piece of my calculus always is to attack bad bullpens, 'cause even if it's close, maybe we'll, they'll cough it up.
21:25
Tigers, Gil, 46 and two-thirds from the bullpen last two weeks. It's a 7.3 ERA. Oof. Oh, my goodness. 1.5 whip, opponents hitting more than 270 off them.
21:36
Red Sox bullpen not great, but I think, do think to a man considering Houck is likely gonna get you into the sixth. With the Tigers offense, that's okay, but not great.
21:43
I think Devers and the boys in Boston do enough to get it done, even if it's close. Give me, like, a 4-1, 5-2 Boston win. Wow. I'm told a, uh, north of seven ERA is not good.
21:53
That's what I'm being told in the ear right now. Blanstein, Blanstein. Yeah. Back of the napkin math. [laughs] Uh,
21:58
um, last thing by the way, 'cause Jason alluded to this earlier, and then I, I had pr- praised Tanner Houck earlier this year because, again, when I was following my Guardians in March and April, one of the games, one of the few games where they had no answers for was a game at Fenway against Tanner Houck.
22:11
He was just brilliant. Yeah.
22:12
But the Jas- the Jason Weingarten note from earlier on the show should be repeated, which is yet don't translate that necessarily to a Rookie of the Year bet because, again, pitchers' innings that are young like that, um, or, or young-ish in different markets, not just Rookie of the Years, but they tend to get limited on, uh, on their innings.
22:31
So just keep that in mind. End of the year, yeah, no good. Yeah. Maeda with an 11.00 ERA. Is that good or bad? [laughs] I'm told that's not good either. Thank you, Chuck. That's not good?
22:39
Okay, I'm gonna run with off good, 11 ERA. Yo, I miss you guys. Have a great weekend, everybody. You too. College World Series bets, we'll review those, and Paul Carr on the Champions League. That's next post June MLB.
22:51
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. For a limited time only, we're slashing the price of our annual subscription. Normally $240, you can now sub, uh, secure your subscription for just $199.
23:03
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23:15
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23:26
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23:43
That's vsin.com/subscribe. Let's go, Alexander. Uh, I was inarticulate before the end of the break, what I was trying to say about...
23:49
'Cause Jason had brought up Rookie of the Year, and if your innings are limited w- as rookies are, don't bet a Rookie of the Year.
23:54
And I was making the point earlier that Tanner Houck, you shouldn't bet him for Cy Young because I think his innings in his, like, third or fourth year are gonna be limited. So it's like...
24:04
Anyway, I was inarticulate about that. I just wanna get that, uh- Gotcha. I gotcha... correction. Um, we get tweets at Betting The Book. Always appreciate that. This is, uh, this is Blake, GM of the week.
24:14
He said, "Hey, Gil, when is it appropriate to bet more than a single unit?
24:18
Is it more about finding a good number to get in on, or about model stats, model/stats that may be unaccounted for with any specific line or price? Also, best restaurant at Mandalay? Thanks. Love the show." Thank you.
24:30
Um, let's take the second one first. Best restaurant at Mandalay? [laughs] Oh. Oh, that steak place is great. Steak place is great. Uh, strip steak. I feel like, I feel like- Strip steak...
24:39
yeah, strip s- yeah, strip steak. It's great. Yeah Pork belly fried rice. Boom.
24:44
Actually, that's one of my favorite sides in town is at Strip Steak Uh, and a nice little dessert place is, uh, Citizens- Citizen right in the middle of town I don't really know that they have much else in that- No, it's just dessert...
24:53
for big owners. Yeah. Yeah, just dessert. No, no, I'm saying like- Oh... restaurants in general that I would recommend. Yeah. Yeah, not really But, but you're right, Strip Steak is great- Yeah...
24:59
and one of my favorite sides in town Yeah.
25:02
Uh, as far as the, like, betting more than a unit kind of thing, I mean, again, if you have a model, um, the larger the edge, um, with confidence in that model, the larger the unit size some would subscribe to.
25:16
Short of having that kind of precision on stuff, um, I don't know that I would go around recommending- Yeah, I, I-...
25:24
the average bettor to do that kind of thing I think it's regardless of, uh, uh, regardless of how you're handicapping sports, the larger the edge is where you would end up making larger bets.
25:35
Um, but you know, I, yes, I think if you are more of a novice bettor just getting started out, flat, flat betting everything is the way you should be approaching things Yeah, I think so.
25:43
Uh, this is from, boopity boop, last one here. Let me read one more here. This is from, uh, oh, JoeC714 will always have a place in my heart.
25:51
He said, "Does Gil still have the autographed Iga Świątek ball by his TV that I gave him? I can claim the best gift given by a loyal listener according to Gil. Please DM me the sushi spot." [laughs] I will.
26:02
When you're coming here, I will DM you the sushi spot, my man. Appreciate that. Uh, okay. College World Series plays real quick. Can we get these out of the way before we get to Paul? Yeah, let's do it. Yeah.
26:12
These are what we have at College World Series. Uh, the regionals begin today. College baseball, baby.
26:17
Thanks to, uh, Matt Grissom, thanks to Ben Wilson, thanks to everybody who has, uh, talked college baseball with us this year. Um, Ole Miss 100 to one couple years back.
26:26
More people bet college baseball now than Major League Baseball. [laughs] It's an interesting question. Certainly around our little corner of the world.
26:31
I was gonna say on, on our network, they might be talking about it as much. Not, not generally they don't, but in our little corner of the world.
26:36
By the way, I'd like to think that, uh, we have a little something to do with that over here- Yeah, yeah... um, on ANG.
26:41
To win the College World Series, I have three bets, two of them completely inspired by Matt Grissom, and those are the first two there. Wake Forest at 20 to one and Georgia at 25 to one.
26:49
Those are simply based on the collegebaseballinsiders.com rankings that he had at the time that he was on the show here a couple weeks ago.
26:55
Um, he had Georgia as the number two team in the country when he did, and then Georgia, by the way, right after he was on, had like a bad stretch.
27:01
But I got Wake Forest 20 to one, I got Georgia 25 to one, and I have your FSU Seminoles at 35 to one behind their ace, Jamie Arn. Let's go, 'Noles. Let's go, 'Noles.
27:09
I'm on them as well, uh, to win, uh, to win the College World Series and the regional this weekend. Um, and Oklahoma State is my other one. Okay, there you go. Paul Carr joins us from all parts of America.
27:21
Uh, typically it's Topeka, Kansas, but he can be found in so many locations because he's a renaissance man when it comes to sports. [laughs] Paul joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
27:30
Paul, where are you today? Gil, I'm talking to you live from, uh, Commerce City, Colorado, and Dick's Sporting Goods Park, which is where the US Women will play South Korea in a friendly, soccer friendly tomorrow.
27:43
Oh, we knew that. Of course. I know. Dick- Dick's Sporting Goods Park in Commerce City, Colorado. Stop making up cities. Yeah. [laughs] It's just made up. It's just made up city.
27:52
I think that's pretty much it, you know, how they, you know, they kind of made up the city and started putting stuff here. It's one of those, you know, down the suburbs of Denver.
27:59
Um, does have a nice view of the Rockies, but yeah, it's a, it's a town that's just kind of sprung up, and there's not a ton here, but it's a nice stadium and a nice view of the mountains.
28:06
By the way, is there anything more antithetical to the American brain than the notion of a soccer friendly? Yeah, it's, trying to explain it to, yeah, a traditional American sports fan is a little bit weird.
28:19
Like, so it doesn't count? Well, it does count. So it's like preseason? Well, no. Oh. But yes. Yes. And yeah. No, kind of. What do you mean friendly? Uh. Right. Not really friendly, but yeah.
28:28
Yeah, it depends on the teams. Okay, before we get to your, uh, Champions League final play, lay out, if you would, the summer soccer schedule for us. Yeah. Yeah, it's fun. Soccer never stops, as I always say.
28:41
So next week is when Euros start. This is the European Championship, normally every four years. So you know, it's the closest thing to a World Cup in general because most of the best teams are in Europe.
28:50
So that starts, I think it's a week from today in Germany, so that'll be a fun one as always. The week after that, Copa America starts.
28:59
Copa America is usually just South American teams, but they're having a special one this year that includes the US, it includes Mexico and other CONCACAF teams, and it's in the United States. That starts in two weeks.
29:09
Ooh. And then end of July is when the Olympics will start. That's a U23 tournament for the men and a senior tournament for the women. Do you anticipate betting each and every one of those events?
29:20
Uh, Euros and Copa, absolutely. I have a few futures in already. Uh, Olympics, the, the men I shy away from more again, just 'cause the youth tournament a little less known.
29:30
Uh, the women probably a few plays just 'cause it's a senior tournament, will be easier to get a handle on, things like that. All right. Wherever Germany is playing, Paul Carr is sure to have a bet. That's right.
29:38
It's a, it's a thing with him. Uh, I, I can neither confirm nor deny already having a future on Germany to win Euros. Oh, okay. [laughs] I think I stepped into it there. All right.
29:46
Champions League final, um, you have not one, not two, but three plays. How do you feel about this, and what are your plays? I do. Yeah, so this is Real Madrid against Dortmund. Real Madrid is a heavy favorite.
29:58
You know, they're roughly minus 160 on the three-way. That's a 90-minute money line. Um, so yeah, they're a sizable favorite.
30:05
Um, and just trying to, you know, you try to kind of play out how is this game going to go in your head and make your bets accordingly in part.
30:11
So, you know, I'm just looking last, last four finals, last four Champions League finals have all ended one-nil. Um, and the first halves of those four finals, total of one goal.
30:21
So I know Dortmund has a reputation as a little bit of a higher scoring team 'cause their defense isn't great, and Real Madrid has as much offensive talent as anybody.
30:30
So it's a little, I don't know, dangerous in my head at least to do this, but I, I think this will be a low-scoring game, especially early on.
30:38
Dortmund has tended to be defensive, more defensive and a little better defensively when they're outclassed, like they were against PSG earlier in the knockout stage.
30:46
So I'll start, my first play is no goals in the first half. Plus 245, uh, just 'cause again, Dortmund I think will come out defensive.
30:54
Madrid is not a team like maybe a Man City that just presses, presses, presses and s- tries to score, score, score.
31:00
Uh, they- they're much more comfortable, you know, without the ball or sitting back and just kind of being patient. So I think I'll start right there. No goals first half, plus 245 is my first play there. Wow, okay.
31:11
First half, under a half a goal. You might see that listed that way as well. Yep. Plus 245. Yep. All right, and then, and, and under for the whole game as well? Yep. Yeah, so we'll carry this over to the whole game.
31:22
Again, last four finals all ended one-nil. Four of Dortmund's six knockout games have had two or fewer goals. So again, they try to keep it tight, steal a goal type of thing.
31:30
And even Real Madrid's knockout games, half of them had no, had two or fewer goals, and two others probably should have.
31:36
You know, there was a silly three-three game against Man City where there was, like, one and a half expected goals total, and there was a two-two game against Bayern that had two penalties.
31:43
So, uh, yeah, under two and a half you get plus money. I have it at plus 120, so under two and a half goals. And I'll say what I always say, this is a 90-minute bet, so if this goes to extra time, say a one-one,
31:56
and someone wins in extra time, you're still winning this under two and a half bet because by default at least, you're making 90-minute bets. Okay. 'Cause you have a, you have a future here on pla- Play Too, right? Yeah.
32:07
I have a Real Madrid. This was a kind of a brain-dead type of play I made in January or February where it's like, "Hey, I'm just gonna throw something on Real Madrid 'cause they always seem to win Champions League."
32:16
So I have a plus 550 that's in action. Um, yeah. So I'm kind of- Are you t- yeah... semi-hedging this a little bit. You're, you're threading the needle here, right? Yeah. So- A little bit, yeah. Yeah.
32:26
I mean, I got a chance to win both of these, but I like the Dortmund double chance at plus 130. Uh, again, I think Dortmund's gonna try and keep it tight.
32:34
Could very easily see this being one-one at the end of 90 minutes, which again cashes the bet. Yeah. Yep. Even if Real Madrid goes on to win in extra time or whoever wins in penalties, doesn't matter. Okay.
32:43
So yeah, I have Dortmund double chance plus 130. So if it goes, you know, one-one to extra time, Madrid wins, then I'm cashing everything. Okay. So under a half goal first half, plus 245.
32:53
Under two and a half goals for the game, plus 120. We got 30 seconds for your final bet. That is? Final one's the Dortmund double chance. Yeah, plus 130.
33:01
Again, I think Dortmund will try to keep it tight, try to get one goal on the counter, and if it's, you know, one-nil late, Real Madrid's gonna be fine.
33:07
They just go grind out a goal in the last 10 minutes like they always seem to do. You get to extra time, and that would be a winner in that case. All right. One-one there.
33:14
Paul, enjoy Commerce City and, uh, Dick's Sporting Goods Arena, I believe you called it. I w- Or Field. Dick, Dick's Sporting Goods Park. Park. Park, yeah. It's a park. It's not a field, it's a park.
33:23
Get it together, Gil. That's right. Thank you, Paul. Sheesh. Appreciate it, Paul. You're welcome.
33:29
[laughs] Senior Director of Content at True Media Sports, also the host of the Expected Value podcast from Commerce City, Colorado. MLB, most wins, June, it is next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:43
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34:15
The crowd is yours. A little update in tennis. Uh, nice bounce back day for us on the clay at Roland Garros. Danilovic wins in a third set tiebreaker. Uh, Clara Tauson took down, uh, Sofia Kenin in straight sets.
34:27
Um, so hopefully things turning around here at Roland Garros. Iga, Iga- Can you show the audience real quick just, uh, how you did that live read? What do you mean? I was staring right at it. What are you talking about?
34:36
No, no, no, no, no, it was g- it was great. Sorry. It was like that, so we could see the final point. Uh- Yeah... I was really hoping the point was gonna keep going. [laughs] 'Cause it was, like, a long rally.
34:45
I was like, "Keep going, keep going." [laughs] Uh, he's talking about Iga. Iga just won the first set against Marie Bouzkova, and I wanted to read the promo while watching at the same time, so it was a...
34:54
Yeah, that's what it was. I was really hoping the point would just go on forever. [laughs] Serious. Gil would get trapped when he like read, uh, uh, ran through the read. Okay.
35:01
Um, real quick update on May most wins in Major League Baseball, and again, our Guardians bet at 16 to one. Remember, our 65 to one in March, April, dying the sickest death of them all, one out away.
35:13
Uh, but 16 to one, Cleveland gave it a run, um, but they're gonna fall short. They're in third place. They're at 18 and nine. The winner, and I hope, uh, congratulations to you if you are a part of this.
35:24
If you have a Phillies ticket or a Yankees ticket, you are live at Circa, which has the, uh, tiebreakers of, once again, uh, fewest wins and best run differential.
35:35
Yankees have to lose, Phillies have to win, and you will win on, well, you'll win on fewest losses. So run differential won't come into play 'cause they play an uneven amount of games, the two of them.
35:49
So if the Yankees, uh, if the Yankees lose and the Phillies win, if you're at Circa, the Phillies will win based on fewest losses.
35:57
If the Yankees lose and the Phillies win over at William Hill Caesars, that will be a dead heat between those two teams. There are no other possible outcomes. If the Yankees win, the Yankees win in both spots.
36:08
I, I, I don't mean to sound like a jerk for people out there that have these tickets, 'cause we've been tracking the Guardians so much. Yeah. Is this about to be a bad beat sort of with the Phillies?
36:16
Um, I don't know if you can consider it a bad beat- Okay. Okay... but it certainly was, they were in the lead- They looked good for a long time...
36:23
they were in the lead most of the time, but the Yankees were always lurking, and the Guardians were the sneaky freaky brother sneaking in from the rear. Yeah, you're right. The, yeah- Yeah... they were right there. Yeah.
36:31
Yeah. Um, okay, which brings us, ladies and gentlemen, to June. Ah, yes, June. 30-day month. They don't get any shorter during the baseball season than a 30-day month. Remember, March, April was like 34.
36:43
Um, May was 31, and now we're at 30. We'll have to wait till September to get one as short as 30, so this is a bit of a sprint.
36:49
Um, and, uh, I wasn't gonna do this And then yesterday I was texting with Kelly, I was like, "Yeah, I mean, it's only up at William Hill, so I don't know."
36:56
And then Circa put them out, and then I was like, well, I had flights, I had time to k- let, let me delve into this. So yeah, I delved into it all right.
37:04
So the first thing when handicapping these is, and we talked about this last month with Samich, 'cause remember Samich had the Blue Jays, and then after he was off the air, I was like- Mm, yeah...
37:11
"Here's the problem with the Samich bet. He's got, like, three fewer games, uh, than most of the teams."
37:15
So first thing you do is you count up the total number of games that each team has scheduled, and when you do that analysis for June, the Baltimore Orioles have 29 games in June. They have one day off. That's it.
37:30
Now, that could be a double-edged sword. It's great- Right, right... on the one hand. On the other hand, like, I, I l- I look at that last Guardians game in Colorado, they just look gassed, right?
37:39
So maybe it's a good thing, maybe it's not. Also, when it comes to, like, a Circa tiebreaker, when you play more games and then you end up in a tie, by definition you'll lose 'cause you'll have more losses, right?
37:52
So keep that in mind. St. Louis, Toronto, San Diego, Kansas City, and the White Sox have the next most games at 28. Most teams have 27, or the b- or the biggest group of teams have 27. Three days off.
38:05
Uh, then you got a, you got six teams... excuse me, seven teams, Cleveland, Boston, Philly, Pittsburgh, Miami, the Angels, and the Dodgers with 26.
38:12
Then, Kelly, you have the Houston Astros with 25 games in the 30-day month of June, and the New York Mets, who just posted the worst record in May, somehow they only have 24 games scheduled in the month of June.
38:28
It's amazing. Like, I've never, like... I, I guess I've never looked at a baseball schedule broken down like this. How- Yeah... the Mets get, like, a week off. It's incredible. [laughs] The, the Orioles have one day off.
38:37
The Mets almost have a week off.
38:39
Anyway, so that's the first thing one should do when doing the most wins in a month, or at least I believe that's the first thing one should do, is have a sense of how many games is each team scheduled to play.
38:49
Now, obviously rain can affect this, but that's what it starts with. So does that mean that you were h- will have sacred fealty to that? "Well, I can only bet on the teams with the most games."
39:01
Well, I am here to argue that is just one component, because I did not end up betting on one of the teams with the most games.
39:09
Now, like some of the tweets this morning we got, a lot of people like that Dodgers schedule, right? But the Dodgers are, are right around five to one. They're the short shot.
39:18
Um, and for me, in the end, the Dodgers was not worth playing, first of all because I don't think five to one is a good enough number. By the way, we're showing three to one at Circa, so even less on the Dodgers.
39:29
Um, but they were as, as, as high as five to one, I think, at William Hill at one point.
39:33
But the issue with the Dodgers is, um, although they're rightful favorites, they play the Yankees and Kansas City and at San Francisco. There is a group of games that is kind of tough.
39:46
So again, the combination of their number and they do have three series that are tough, I'm not playing that. That number's not nearly not good enough to play, in my opinion.
39:55
Um, another team I considered was I looked at the Padres. Uh, the Padres were an interesting one.
40:04
They're about 17 to one, but ultimately they had a seven-game stretch in the middle where they were at Philly, they had Milwaukee, and that kinda took me off the Padres as well. Um, so
40:17
then I stumbled upon this little schedule right here. Now, this is Team X. We're gonna reveal the team momentarily, but this is the team, this is the team's June schedule.
40:27
And what I have done, you'll see that, uh, where there's an at, uh, we took the ats down, uh, 'cause some of these were road games, right? But, um, so... Oh, yeah, we do have the ats. Pardon me. My mistake.
40:38
We do have the ats. Great job by the guys back, by the way, with that, uh, total number of games, and we have the ats here. I just didn't see the ats were on the left. So
40:45
you'll see the home games do not have the at signs. The ats are obviously away games. But what I've done is I've put the run- the current run differentials of all of these teams.
40:56
So Minnesota at home, plus three, plus three. Then St. Louis, the Cardinals, are minus 35. Then at the Angels, the Angels are minus 41. Then at San Francisco, San Francisco's minus 19. Detroit is plus five.
41:10
The White Sox are minus 127. It's incredible. [laughs] Then Baltimore is plus 69, Colorado minus 75, and the Mets, at the Mets minus 36 for a three-game set to close it out.
41:23
Plus they're gonna be fresh off a cruise, so, you know.
41:26
So the only team that this team is facing with an above plus five run differential, and by the way, there are only three circumstances of them playing teams with plus run differentials, the plus three Twins, the first two games, the plus five Tigers for three games later,
41:44
is the plus 69 Orioles. But as we just mentioned, by that time, late in the month, the Orioles will play this team that I bet nine- the Orioles will have played 19 out of 20 days right before they play this team.
41:59
So you're getting the Orioles possibly in a situation where even that one team that has this good performance up to this point via run differential to this point this year, again, don't just tech- check standings.
42:09
Check what a team really ought to be, um, in terms of their run production and their run prevention at this point. So you get the idea. This is as cakey a schedule as you could possibly put together.
42:23
Here is the issue, though. This happens to be one of the teams that actually plays fewer games, so that's the rub.
42:31
Beyond the schedule, the rub is that this team plays only, as we just mentioned in the previous, uh, moments, 25 games scheduled, but they don't get easier than those 25.
42:43
This schedule cannot be possibly any easier than what we're seeing right here. And so the play is on a team that is sub 500 right now. I got them at 25 to one at the Dead Heat shop at Caesars Will Hill.
42:56
But because they're playing fewer games, and I just alluded to this with the Guardians, the double-edged sword of fewer games is that if you win a lot, [clears throat] pardon me, you're gonna win on a tiebreaker at Circa.
43:07
So I also bet it at Circa, not quite at 25 to one, but at 17 to one, and that team is the Houston Astros. Wow. The Houston Astros to turn it around in the month of June,
43:20
25 to one at William Hill Caesars, 17 to one at Circa. That is your numbers game. Most MLB wins in June. Play of the month. What, uh... Wait, wait, what were the number, what was the number at Caesars? 25 to one.
43:34
Okay, I like that. 17 to one here. You know, we were texting yesterday, right? Yeah.
43:37
It still feels like this isn't, this isn't directly correlated to some of the golf markets, but, like, the Dead Heat, you should be getting a little bit b- more bang for your buck on the odds, um, with those tiebreaker possibly co- with the tiebreaker possibly coming into play.
43:50
I like it. I like it. Astros. Do with that what you will. Follow if you must, or, you know, go rogue if you must. Whatever you think. But that is my case for the Houston Astros upon, uh, schedule reflection.
44:04
But that's essentially how I do the handicap most games, is I get into the schedule. That, that was good. I like that. I'm off next week, Kelly. I don't know if you know that. You are? Yeah.
44:13
Um- I'm not sure who's here Sunday. You're not sure who else next Wednesday. You probably know that. [laughs] Nice job. All right. Ben, Ben or Jared will be here. [laughs] Ben, Jared, Matt, we don't know. Somebody.
44:21
Um, they'll do a fabulous job. Um, good luck with all your bets. Joe Golich next on the radio side. Best bets on the picture side. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
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