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May 3, 2024
A Numbers Game | May 3, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | May 3, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, live from Bar Canada at the D, downtown Las Vegas. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin. Sup? You good?
0:23
Oh, I'm good. I'm good. Ready for some game sixes again tonight? Couple game sixes. Might need a little nap beforehand, but yeah. Otherwise, I'm ready to roll. Let's go Mavs. Uh, yeah. Big night tonight.
0:33
Big night for you with your Mavs bets. Mavs series bets, Mavs and six on the line tonight. Those would be a nice cash to get those home. Oh, nice. You have Mavs and six too. Yeah.
0:42
What did, what number did you get Mavs and six at? Mm, let me check real quick. I don't know. I don't know about numbers. Oh, it's a very nice search for you right now. Let's see what I got it at.
0:48
Uh, we'll get to the NBA- Plus 360. Nice. We'll get to that momentarily.
0:51
El- all NBA things, 'cause I have a series of NBA questions now that we have another, uh, conference semifinal series set heading into a couple game sixes in the first round tonight.
1:00
Drew Dincic will join us here momentarily live from... Do we know that he's at Churchill Downs specifically? He's in Louisville, we know that much. We know that much. Churchill Downs maybe.
1:09
We'll find out momentarily, but Drew, of course, uh, doing the derby for NBC Sports. We'll get his thoughts from down there, and, uh, after that, Pablo Torre will join the show, Kelly.
1:21
The host of, uh, Pablo Torre Finds Out, which you and I, can I speak for you here? Yeah. Oh, yeah. Are big fans of this podcast.
1:29
Uh, it's part of the DK Network, but it's, uh, he goes down sports, not always sports, but usually sports rabbit holes. Like, just stories that haven't been fleshed out. Mm-hmm.
1:39
And he does it with his buddies, sometimes with his enemies, and they just go down this investigative rabbit hole with all these, and it's fascinating, and we'll get to, uh, that with Pablo.
1:48
Chris Felica joins us for a couple segments today. Of course, his final derby thoughts and beyond. I'm sure he's got some, uh, some soccer thoughts as well. Preston Johnson, co-owner of Crawley.
2:00
Co-owner of Crawley Town, baby, uh, who are in the League Two playoffs. He will join us, and it's a, uh, it's a story about how Money Ball won out, and he has gotten his team to the playoffs.
2:12
Obviously, a chance to go to League One if they were to win out in this.
2:16
Um, but the story just to get to the playoffs themselves won rife with amazing, um, emotional rollercoaster elements where the fan base hated him, hated him, and now he comes out of the ashes and, uh, gives them a playoff team.
2:32
So i- in, in just the most amazing way, getting rid of all their best players, just signing these randos from elsewhere that no one thought were any good. It's an incredible story, man. It's awesome. Yeah. It's awesome.
2:45
And then Jason Weingarten, of course, who also has a little something to do with Crawley Town, but he'll, he'll be here from, uh, Under a Cloud of Smoke, of course.
2:50
I don't know if we're gonna get the c- the c- uh, camera on with Jason today, but you know, the contractor has to work still to get there. Uh, okay, NBA last night, two game sixes.
2:59
Remember, uh, two series were sweeps, two finished in five, and we had four game sixes, two last night, two tonight. Uh, the two last night, they end. Uh, the Pacers, first of all, roll the Bucks.
3:10
The Bucks ended up with Dame Lillard, but without Giannis Antetokounmpo, and so in the end, this was a five-and-a-half point spread. Remember, when we were on air, it was eight,
3:20
um, and we made the comment, you know, there's a lot of time between now and tip-off, so we'll see who plays and who doesn't. Um, they both got, like, upgraded to questionable at one point. Yep.
3:30
Dame ends up playing, Giannis is not, and the Pacers say, "Whatever, we'll destroy you," 22-point win, and the Indiana Pacers are on their way to the conference semifinals.
3:40
Um, would you like to, uh, say any pa- any final words for the Milwaukee Bucks this season? Um- 'Cause you know mine. Mine is, this is the greatest thing that ever happened to Doc Rivers.
3:50
[laughs] That these guys got hurt- Yes... so that he doesn't have to take any of the blame. That is fair.
3:55
I think every single playoffs that goes by that we don't get to see someone like Giannis Antetokounmpo participate in is a shame. I agree. Um, I'll, I'll just put it like that, and this is, uh, Pacers,
4:07
good luck next round. Okay. Good luck. Well, we'll get to that, 'cause the Pacers are, um, well, let's put it this way.
4:12
The Knicks are north of two dollar favorites against the Pacers, and the Knicks are in that conference semifinal series in the East courtesy of their game six win over the Sixers last night, and this could have been Disaster: Part Two.
4:26
Remember how they gacked game five when they're up six with 29 seconds left in game five? Well, they go to Philly last night. Um, this was, speaking of rollercoasters, this was one.
4:36
The Knicks went up in this game 33 to 11 with 2:22 left [laughs] in the first quarter. The Knicks are up 22, and you're like, "Wow, nice, uh, nice no-show, Sixers." But then the Sixers wake up.
4:48
They go on a 43 to 18 run to close the half. They actually lead by three at the half. At that point, 30 to nothing in bench points for the Sixers, including 17 from Buddy Hield, who had two all series before that.
5:02
Yeah, it was a bold strategy of throwing out the, uh, one of the, one of the great, uh, three-point shooters in the league that you traded for, and who's just been sitting on your bench the past couple weeks.
5:10
And, and Barkley and, and, you know, he seized on it something that he had seized on earlier in the, uh, in that...
5:15
I wanna say it was in that series or a different s- No, it was in the Nuggets series where he said, "Why are the Lakers doubling Jokic and letting everybody go crazy?"
5:22
He said the same here about, uh, the Knicks way up, doubling up on Embiid, and so it allowed Hield and other guys to have some room. Um,
5:31
Philly went up by 10, 71 to 61, but by the end of the third quarter, it was tied at 83, and then late in this game, the Knicks 109 to 101.
5:41
They're up eight with a f- with, with OG Anunoby at the free throw line with an att- with a chance to go up nine. This is with 2:43 left in the game, and you're like, "Well, this is over again."
5:51
And- And before [laughs] Embiid just in mere moments, it's 111-111 with 35 seconds left. It's incredible. It's wild. [laughs] It was wild. It's incredible. Uh, and then a- What a series...
6:03
and then a Josh Hart three, uh, splashes with 26 seconds left. And after an Embiid, uh, layup and a couple DiVincenzo free throws, New York finally understood, unlike in game five- Yes... we are going to foul up three.
6:17
I was screaming at the TV. You know what happens when you foul up three? You probably win it in, uh, 97, 98% of the time. Yeah. I haven't run the numbers, but don't hold me to that. It's a winning strategy.
6:28
I mean, time, score, situation, that was the perfect, that was the perfect spot last night to do that. Yes. Philly could never catch up. And, and, and it should be the perfect example of why- It is...
6:38
every coach [laughs] do this. Do this. This is what you do.
6:42
We've been t- It's not just about the makes and misses at the line, it's about how much time g- right, take, time is taken off in between all the different motions of inbounding and fouling- That's right...
6:50
and trying to steal. The ball's getting knocked out of bounds. Th- 'cause this is what happened in the end. In the end you're up three. Um, the ball gets tipped out of bounds.
6:57
So I think that the, the Sixers had 3.7 seconds left on the clock- Yeah... I believe it was, and they inbounds to Buddy Hield, and Hield knows, well, they're going to try to foul me.
7:09
So rather than really getting the best setup and look for a three, which he kind of had the space to do, but in your head you know you're about to get fouled, so that...
7:18
And by the way, inherent in that is why you do this. He kind of rushes it, right? Yeah. Yep. Because he, he has to.
7:25
And of course, it misses horribly, and the Knicks win it 118-115, and the New York Knicks are headed to the conference semis.
7:31
Yeah, and I don't know this would've made much of a difference, but that, that foul, the, the possession beforehand where they had a chance to foul Josh Hart, put him on the line, a little bit worse free throw shooter, uh, they ended up, they didn't foul him.
7:45
I think it was Oubre on him and didn't get the foul on him. Ends up getting it over DiVincenzo. Embiid has to foul him. Embiid fouls out. Yeah.
7:53
And I mean, it's easy, it's easy to say now maybe that w- wouldn't have mattered at all, but you talk about that, that situation with 3.7 seconds left, it'd be nice to have a 7'2" guy to throw the ball into that can actually shoot pretty well- It w- it would be...
8:07
when you know you gotta get it up right away. Um, so we have the series set up between the Knicks and the Pacers, conference semis now.
8:16
Uh, the Celtics awaiting the winner of tonight's, uh, or not the winner of tonight's, but the winner of the series anyway between the Magic and the Cavs, their game six in Orlando tonight.
8:24
Let me ask you a series of questions. Uh, Knicks are min- let's start with the Knicks and Pacers. Knicks are minus 225, Pacers plus 190 on the comeback in this series. You already tipped your hand.
8:32
You don't give the Pacers much of a chance here. I'm in. I thought this, I thought this price was gonna be a little bit steeper. It has gotten. DraftKings actually one of the cheaper sp- uh, shops out there.
8:42
I was shocked, man, when I saw some of the openers. Uh, a couple of the offshore shops opening this, like, minus 175, and a blink got beat up. Um, that was, I got in at minus 215 on the Knicks. I played that.
8:54
I'm not gonna sit here and say I went crazy on it, because I'm wondering about game one. Game one I'm probably gonna stay away from.
8:59
I mean, this was a hell of a series between the Knicks and Sixers with a lot of minutes being played by the Knicks starters.
9:07
I'm wondering if they're gonna be able to c- take this momentum and carry it over into game one and be okay.
9:13
I think if the Pacers have a chance to catch them, it might be in that game one, uh, where they might be able to catch the Knicks a little bit off guard. So I did bet it.
9:21
I laid my, uh, laid it at minus 215 on the Knicks. I think they're the far superior team, uh, heading into this matchup. Um, and if they can win game one, I think this series could be over quick.
9:33
I think Pacers, uh, Pacers have got a big chance, so if they can steal one in New York, get them off of a long, long series where the starters played a lot of minutes and now have to refocus their attention to a brand-new opponent that brings different struggles.
9:46
All right, let's do two minutes of rapid fire. Um, do the Knicks have a... W- q- would the Knicks have a puncher's chance against the Celtics in a conference finals, yes or no? Yeah. They would? Yes.
9:56
Um- Puncher's chance? Sure. Yes. Game six is tonight. Orlando's favored by four against Cleveland trying to knot up the series at three apiece.
10:02
Dallas is favored by seven and a half trying to end the series at home against the Clippers, who will be without Kawhi. Would you consider an Orlando series adjusted series price? I don't hate it.
10:15
I do, I do, uh, I don't hate it. I, I would lean, I would lean Orlando's way tonight. I think it's gonna be a gross game, probably looking under, probably looking Orlando back home having a chance to win.
10:25
Who, who can win more games against the Celtics in a conference semis, the Magic or the Cavs? Cavs. Even though the Magic have beat 'em I think, what, two or three times this year, I still think it's the Cavs. You do?
10:36
Yeah. Okay. And the Clippers are done tonight? Clippers are done tonight. Clippers are done. Go home. Sorry, JVT, I love you. [laughs] But I like my money more. [laughs] You beat me to the, "Sorry, JVT." Yeah.
10:49
Um, you do like your money more. And you have the, and you have the Mavericks in all kinds of exactas and futures as well. So this goes beyond this. Yes, it does. Yeah. Um- I don't want that to get to a game seven, man.
10:59
Uh, that's part of the, uh, it's done and my brain's saying, "I hope it's done. I hope it's done," 'cause game seven might be dicey. OKC awaiting the winner of that series.
11:08
So if it's OKC and Dallas, what do you think that series price is? I, I, y- I don't know. Uh, it's Thunder, but I think it's small favorites. But- I do too...
11:18
uh, I mean, I don't know, minus 140, 150, something like that. I haven't, I don't think I'll be getting involved much [laughs] in that series, uh, from a series betting perspective. Game to game maybe, yeah.
11:29
That's where the, the youth of the Thunder will reflect in the price. I think it's gonna be a great series. I think both those series in the Western Conference could be great. See what happens tonight, two game sixes.
11:40
Drew Dincic from Louisville next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:51
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12:03
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12:54
That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander, Kentley Bidlin. Numbers Game live from Bar Canada at the D. We go to Churchill Downs, a soaked Churchill Downs, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. And look at this guy.
13:09
It's Drew Dincic, everybody. Whale_capper on Twitter. What's happening, Drew? Oh, nothing bad. Beautiful day here in Kentucky. Uh, the Oaks running today.
13:19
And, uh, honestly, the conditions on the track look a little pretty [laughs] look a little questionable.
13:23
[laughs] Uh, all week long I've been asking people like, "Hey, what do you think on, uh, what do you think on Sa- on, on the, on Oaks day? They're, they're calling for rain.
13:30
What are the, what are conditions of the track gonna be like?" And everybody just glows. "Oh, the d- the t- the dirt is so, uh, impressive here. It dries so fast."
13:39
[laughs] Uh, I don't know if you saw that horse running behind me. Yes, I did. But it is s- it is, it is sloppy AF. It is...
13:46
Uh, I have no idea how, uh, they expect this track to be dry enough to run a clean race, so, uh, we'll see. Maybe, maybe the rail, maybe the inside is, is, uh, a little bit more firm.
13:55
But, uh, from where I can see and from what I've seen so far in warmups this morning, it's gross out here. So, uh, best of luck to the horses.
14:02
I hope we have a safe and, uh, and, uh, uh, you know, competitive, uh, Oaks today. But, uh, yeah, it's gonna be wild out here. Sloppy AF, horse racing term. I, I actually didn't see- [laughs]...
14:12
the outside rail behind Drew when that horse came up. I thought the horse was about to truck Drew Dincic. [laughs] I did. I did too. [laughs] From the angle that we... I was like, "Is he gonna react?" There she goes.
14:20
He didn't react. It... Yeah, look at that. That is, uh, that is a sloppy looking track. Do you have any Kentucky Oaks bets today, Drew? Yeah.
14:28
So, uh, the Oaks, uh, when I, you know, kind of did my homework before coming out here, um, I was like, "Wow, this is an impossible call."
14:35
There are three very, very good horses in this race and, like, three long shots that all looked very live.
14:40
Uh, and then I came out for warmups yesterday in particular, uh, and got to see all of the Oaks horses kind of do their, uh, you know, their, their, um, uh, training and their schooling.
14:50
And, uh, and I gotta tell you what, Just FYI, who is, uh, sired by Justify, is, uh, a beast of a different nature. Uh, it is, it was... It literally looked like...
15:01
You know, they, they have the Derby horses and the Oaks horses have their own half hour to train and, um, they were out there together.
15:07
And if you didn't see the pink, uh, like, uh, you know, uh, uh, you know, coloring on the, uh, saddle, you would not have known that that was not a Derby horse.
15:17
Uh, she is much bigger and more physically impressive than the other, uh, fillies who are running the Oaks.
15:22
And I know that's not, like, the end all be all from a handicapping perspective, but she's got speed, she's got, you know, pedigree.
15:28
She's, you know, she's done it, uh, at, you know, a level that I, you know, would, would have no problem believing that she can do it, uh, today.
15:35
So, uh, she looks to have taken the biggest step forward from the juvenile fillies, and I think she's probably gonna run this race, uh, as impressively as you can.
15:42
So, uh, if you like a long shot, uh, Pretty Woman drew in at the, as the, uh, 15 horse. And, uh, the connections when that... You know, drew in because of a scratch to the one.
15:51
And, uh, when that happened, the connections basically was, they lost their mind. They were so excited. I think they're, they think that horse is ready to pop.
15:58
Uh, and so I would look for, uh, Pretty Woman as, as the 15, uh, as, uh, kind of the long shot to use in, uh, the exotics. Okay.
16:05
And just if anybody missed that, 'cause you started the sentence, uh, Drew started the sentence with, "Just FYI." Just FYI is actually the name of the horse he was referring to. Yeah, I got that. [laughs] Yeah.
16:15
No, I'm- Yes... seriously, 'cause I think- Just FYI is the name of the horse. Yeah. Right. Yes, Just FYI. Okay. Derby tomorrow. Uh, has your thinking changed? How are you gonna play this? Yeah.
16:25
So there's been a lot of rumblings about potential scratches with- for Fierceness, potential scratches for Honor Marie. I think all of that is noise and nonsense.
16:32
I'm sticking to my guns that those are the two best horses in this field. Uh, Honor Marie's going off at a price. I'm using him out top, I'm using him, uh, in exotics. I'm using him under Fierceness in an exacta.
16:43
Uh, and then, uh, I think ultimately, like, my, my feeling on the race all comes down to pace thesis.
16:48
I'm expecting that you're gonna get a hot pace because there's so many sprinters, particularly Doorknock who's in the one, is gonna have, they're gonna have to send him. Uh, and he's gonna probably draw out, uh, T.O.
16:58
Password the 10, maybe Track Phantom the 12. Definitely Epi- Epic Ride, who's outside of Fierceness.
17:03
Uh, and if those five horses are competing for the lead and we have, like, a 45 low, uh, at the first half mile, then I think pace melt is in, is in play. Uh, and a pace melt means Fierceness is probably going down.
17:14
Uh, you have a really strong, like, group of closers in this race, including Honor Marie, Catching Freedom, and, and Sierra Leone, the second choice. Sierra Leone to me looks a little out of gas.
17:24
I think we've seen the best of him. Uh, I don't think we've seen the best of Honor Marie, and I don't know that we've seen the best of Catching Freedom.
17:30
But, uh, of all the horses that were warming up, C- Catching Freedom kind of had the most intent.
17:36
Like, he looked very, very ready to run and was, you know, run- you know, w- warming up with purpose, whereas a lot of the other horses looked like they just kind of wanted to be somewhere else.
17:44
Like, particularly the Japanese horse, uh, Forever Young. Uh, really not, not, not even, couldn't even tell you how unimpressed I've been so far with the work- with the workouts and the warmups for Forever Young.
17:54
So, uh, ultimately this horse race probably to me comes down to whether or not Fierceness gets burned out by the early pace. And if Fierceness does, then that opens up the door for the closers.
18:04
I know that there are some sharp folks who really believe in Just, uh, Just A Touch. Uh, and Just A Touch was sort of the same kind of wow, physical impressive moment that I had with Just FYI.
18:15
These are two Justify horses, and if you ever saw Justify run, you kind of get the sense that it's just, it, it, it was, it was just, it's just a giant, beautiful, physically impressive horse.
18:24
And, uh, that, that was clearly passed on to Just FYI and Just A Touch.
18:29
Uh, and so I guess if this is more of an honest pace and Fierceness is kind of, uh, con- dictating, I would expect Just A Touch and Stronghold are gonna be kind of right on, uh, Fierceness's, uh, you know, kind of hindquarters.
18:40
And at that point, uh, that would be sort of the three, uh, horses that I think could hit the board.
18:45
Um, but I'm kind of leaning into the maybe 20% chance that we get a hot pace and a pace meltdown, which'll, which will open up the door for my, my guy, Honor Marie. Uh, Just the Touch is the only bet that I have.
18:55
I have it at about double what it is now, and I, I, I take no credit. That was good. I take no credit. It was a good bet. It was all Felica and, uh, Flatter for that one. Uh, they matched on that play.
19:04
That was a while ago. I'm curious, do you get involved in match-ups, Drew? Yes. They hung a billion match-ups offshore, and I have an uncomfortable amount of money across the match-ups.
19:14
[laughs] Uh, I, I went, I went against Doorknock. I think Doorknock is gonna be hot on the early pace and, and could finish, like, you know, 19th to 20th. Uh, I went against T O Password. I went against Track Phantom.
19:24
Uh, I'm on Endlessly. I'm on Catalytic, which are two horses that people don't really think have much of a chance to run, but I think are gonna kind of hit that five to eight, uh, slot when it's all said and done.
19:35
Uh, and then, uh, you know, I have a lot of match-ups with Ana Maria and Catching Freedom, 'cause I think those two closers have a big race in them. All right. Let me ask you what I ask everybody.
19:43
Uh, if I come to you from the future and a horse- Yeah... won, won the Triple Crown, what horse is that? Not happening this year. Period. I can say that with hi- high confidence. It's not happening. Not happening. Okay.
19:57
No.
19:57
The, uh, the Baffert, the Baffert horse, Muth, uh, who is not allowed to run in the Derby because Baffert, of course, is suspended from [laughs] Churchill Downs for cheating, uh, he is not suspended from the Preakness.
20:07
And he will- [laughs]... re- run Muth at the Preakness. And so you'll have a rested Muth against, uh, you know, whatever horse kind of makes their way through a very tough race, uh, o- on two weeks rest.
20:16
That's just not gonna be enough to beat Muth. So I think I would be kind of blown away if Muth doesn't win the Preakness.
20:22
Drew Dincic from the, uh, not only the Deep Dive podcast, which he does with Andy Molitor, but also NBC Sports Bet the Edge. Um, I just, I don't wanna let this moment pass without saying this.
20:32
You seem so in your element here. [laughs] Did you, did you grow up on horses? Uh, uh, no. I s- I mean, college, college, uh, Preakness was the first, uh, experience I had horse racing.
20:46
Uh, but then, you know, kind of as a young adult, uh, going down to Del Mar every year for opening day and for the Pacific Classic, uh, was a ton of fun.
20:53
And now I've kind of gotten into, uh, Triple Crown and Breeders' Cup and, uh, yeah, it's, this is, uh, it's a, uh, it's an... For me, it's not as much a investment and handicapping
21:04
sport as it is just a, uh, entertainment tax when it comes to betting horse racing. So, uh, but that said, you know, everybody needs a, a little, uh, you know, something fun- Okay...
21:13
when, when you're in the betting, betting space. And where can we find you? Is, are you gonna be on the broadcast? You gonna be on Peacock? Where are we finding you? No. Everything I'm doing is digital.
21:21
And I think actually- Okay... once I'm done recording this morning, I'm gonna be able to relax and enjoy the rest of the racing. This man right here. All right. So, uh, let's review.
21:29
It's, uh, Just FYI is the, is the main keyed horse here you're doing for the Oaks today. Um, for the Preakness, you mentioned Muth. For real. And then for, for the Derby, let's just review in 30 seconds here.
21:43
The, the way that you are betting it is, once again, the, the thumbnail. Uh, I got, uh, Ana Maria to win. I like, uh, Fierceness over Ana Maria as a little bit of defense in the exacta.
21:54
Uh, and then in the, uh, the superfecta I'm playing Ana Maria and Fierceness on top. I'm playing Ana Maria, Fierceness, Catching Freedom under, on, uh, on, for, to, to, uh, place or, yeah.
22:05
And, uh, and then underneath I'm gonna put some bombs like, uh, Endlessly, Catalytic, uh, and uh, um, and that's about it. All right.
22:13
Doing his thing and then picking on Door Knock among others in the, uh, head-to-heads you were saying. Yes, sir. Okay. Drew Dincic live from Churchill Downs. Stay dry, man. Enjoy. Hey. Good luck. You got it.
22:23
Best of luck you guys. @whale_capper. He lo- look at him. I love the way he said that, man. With all the betting we do, there's gotta be some things you bet on and watch that- Yeah... you just love having fun with.
22:34
And he loves having fun with that, clearly. Man knows where to purchase a hat also. Oh. I should've asked him about that as well. My bad. Pablo Torre on the other side. From Pablo Torre finds out, this should be fun.
22:44
Numbers game. VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game live from Bar Canada at The D. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin.
22:58
Uh, I failed to mention right at the beginning of the show, and I was saying I gotta mention it right at the top, right at the top, because it was starting right as we started.
23:04
Um, every host, every guest on this network, every sport that they have a bet in is all at vsin.com/ is it bets or picks now? It always get, it always kills me. Picks. Picks. Vsin.com/picks. Pardon me. Vsin.com/picks.
23:19
[laughs] Every host, every guest, every sport. I had one tennis play overnight. Uh, I have... I, I feel like I'm the only person who took Taylor Fritz here against Andrey Rublev. Uh, I have- Got it right. I have...
23:31
Picks, you got it right. [laughs] I was like, you're so excited about it. You're like, "Picks." [laughs] Oh, but Gil goes to confirm things with me and I'm like, "Yeah, sure. That sounds good." [laughs] Yeah.
23:38
[laughs] I have Fritz at, uh, plus 127 pre-flop. Right as the match started it was about, I think, a couple pennies better than that. Um, but right now they're on serve. Two games, two games.
23:50
Andrey Rublev against Taylor Fritz. Rublev coming off the win against Alcaraz. And, um, Fritz getting no love, but Fritz... By the way, 3-2 now Rublev, uh, on serve in the first set.
24:00
Fritz getting no love in this on the, uh, the betting line here. Um, but his, uh, clay numbers are better, uh, quite frankly, over the long term than Andrey Rublev's are.
24:10
And Fritz has beaten a lot of clay court specialists in this tournament, so I thought that was a fantastic price.
24:15
Um, so if you're interested in getting in this somehow in match at some point here, including right now where there's a break, uh, there it is. Take that for what it's worth. We get tweets at Betting The Book.
24:25
That's a semifinal in Madrid, by the way. We get tweets at Betting The Book. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback. Matthew Mayberry, "Holy crap. Look what happens when you foul up three," he said. "You win," in capitals.
24:36
"Knicks +3.5, Knicks money line, Knicks series. Sixers in play +9.5 all cash. Thank you, Tom Thibodeau-" Oh, nice... "for doing the right thing." There you go, Matthew Mayberry. It is the right thing.
24:48
We used to try on this show to, uh... Remember we did this on Primetime Action too. I don't know if we ever followed through.
24:53
We were like, "We need to keep a list of coaches who d- who do foul up three and those who don't." Yeah. Yeah. No, no, no, you- Some, but they're not consistent either.
25:00
That's what I was just gonna say And we were talking about it ye- what was it yesterday or the day before? I mean, after the last game where it was, like I, w- we brought up that point.
25:10
I mean, none of these guys are consistent. Sometimes you see it throughout, I mean, at the playoffs I think have, have been a disaster. I think there's been multiple times- Multiple...
25:17
where guys shoulda done it, and it's, it, it feels actually to me, Gil, like it's something a couple years ago, a few years ago now at this point, that everybody kind of seized on.
25:28
There were a few that started to regularly do it, and now it's just they're either out of jobs or m- or moved around, and nobody's consistent with it. Trust The Glove,
25:39
deep shot no doubter to center with the Cleveland bet, gambling journalism at its best. I think he's talking about the home run the other night, even though it wasn't center field, Caratini. I don't know.
25:50
Uh, LosVegas514, "No," uh, "Yo, yo," he says, "can you spell the word gacked? I'm looking for it and can't find it. I like it though. LOL." G-A-C-K-E-D, of course. Everybody knows that.
26:02
Um, [laughs] as in they gacked the game. Hunter Gattis gacked it.
26:08
Uh, Nash, uh, Nash, uh, says, "Kelly meant to quote the great Mark Borchardt in saying, 'Love you JBT, but I got my mind on my money and my money on my mind-" [laughs] "... with the Mavericks." That's exactly right.
26:19
Uh, let's see here. Brian Sh- Brian Schaefer, "Rublev went down love one. I jumped on Ruvelev- Rublev pu- plus money." So he went the other way.
26:27
Um, and then, uh, Trust The Glove also add, he, he adds, "I don't bet horses, but Drew's report almost moved me to do so." Drew getting down at Churchill Downs.
26:37
I, I, I, I mean, how many times have we done this with him now? Two, three years in a row where he's been out there, right? I mean, like, w- we've done this same kind of shot with him now a couple times.
26:46
And it is, I mean, you, you obviously seized on it. Like, you could see it. You could see it in his face and his eyes.
26:51
How many times do we have [laughs] we have him on every single week to talk about something sports betting. You can just see his eyes light up [laughs] whenever he's out there at the Derby.
26:59
It brings up an interesting conversation, which we've had, I think, one or two times before, but, uh, when I see him there, it just brings it, brings it to the fore, which I think is worth having briefly, which is, you know, he, and he's very open about this, so I'm not talking about it behind his back or anything, but he works for, he does, he does betting for NBC.
27:17
Like, that's a big potential gig, right? And, um, you know, NBC has what? They have the Derby. They have golf, which Drew loves to bet. Um, they have certain tennis majors.
27:32
I believe they have the French Open leaps to mind.
27:35
So a lot of this would be right in his strike zone, but one of the interesting things, and for those of us in the gambling media space who have been immersed in gambling and betting sports our whole lives, let's face it, one of our big sort of,
27:48
I don't know if the, I don't know if it's pet peeves or one of the things that we're very conscio- conscious of is,
27:54
are, i- is betting media ultimately, right, on, at the bigger networks, going to be the arena of folks like Drew, who have been immersed in this for all these years?
28:06
Or, you know, when it comes to football, let's use the biggest sport of all- Mm-hmm... um, will, would they rather have some of their mainstream folks talk about betting instead of a guy like Drew?
28:19
So that's gonna be fascinating to find out. And, you know, would they rather have Chris Simms talking about a football line as opposed to Drew Dincic? And so we'll see.
28:26
There, the answers are, are yet to be determined on that. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he is the host of Pablo Torre Finds Out. Pablo Torre joins us right now.
28:36
Pablo Torre Finds Out, by the way, a podcast that both Kelly and I are, dare I say, obsessed with. And I just wanna give you the little quote on it, the little sort of, uh, subtitle on it.
28:46
Award-winning journalist/gasbag Pablo Torre is finally free to F around. Pablo Torre joins us now courtesy of the Progressive gas line. How you doing, Pablo? I'm great, guys. That is all too kind.
28:58
Um, thank you for being obsessed with something that feels like my second child, much to my wife's disappointment. [laughs] She's asking, should we have a second child? Yeah.
29:05
Um, uh, can I just start, like, when you w- when you had in your head, you know, one day I'll probably do a podcast of some sort, how long have you had this particular angle in mind where you essentially do go, as it says right there, go down rabbit holes of sports stories that perhaps haven't been properly vetted out?
29:26
Yeah. It's sort of the culmination of all of my curiosities. I appreciate you guys being curious about this, because I've been doing sports television in some form or another for almost 15 years now.
29:35
I was a magazine writer before that. And what I hadn't yet, hadn't, what I hadn't yet earned the ability to do was basically tell people, "Hey, um, I think I have a sense of what might be interesting for you."
29:50
Because look, I get it. I, I understand that doing something different that's premised on, hey, there's a story here. I'm not gonna tell you what it is at the outset, but trust me, there's gonna be a payoff.
29:59
It's something that I've worked literally 15 years to sort of achieve.
30:02
And so for me, in the last year or two, I sort of formulated this concept of what if the premise is this is a mystery box drawn from the world of sports, but also beyond it, and inside of which you could find something like, I don't know, the video the Knicks used to try and recruit LeBron James in 2010.
30:21
[laughs] That's one of the great ones. You know? Yeah. [laughs] That's so great.
30:23
So I'm just bringing, I'm bringing these sorts of bits of information as well as artifacts, as well as just, uh, to me would feel like revelations in hoping that if you come along for the ride, um, you're gonna maybe be obsessed with this in the way that I am.
30:38
And it i- [laughs] it is so great. Um, you mentioned that one about the, uh, the Knicks video to lure LeBron. There was the, there is a great one on Mat Ishbia, the, the owner of the Suns- Yeah...
30:49
which is just mind-blowing. I'm not gonna say anything else. People should absolutely watch that. Let's just say, wasn't too unhappy the Suns got swept. Just wanted to point that out. Yeah.
30:58
It was w- so the Suns one, I, I'll, I'll say yes, please listen to it, watch it, because it's an exhaustive deep dive into how this guy maybe afforded the Suns for a record price.
31:09
Like, no one had paid as much money for an NBA and WNBA team than Mat Ishbia, $4 billion.
31:14
And this is the story of how he happens to be also the king of mortgage lending in America, and how you, average American, may helped him buy the team without you necessarily knowing it. Um, to be sort of blunt about it.
31:27
And so yeah, when they get swept and all these questions arise now, guys, about like, well, what Ma- what's Matuschka gonna do in this off season? How is he gonna run this team?
31:35
You kind of gotta understand how he runs his big business that made him a bazillionaire to get a sense of like how this could all go for the league and for him.
31:44
Pablo, you made the joke about how your wife, you know, who thinks that, uh, you, this is your second child, the podcast, and not your actual perhaps pending second child. Yeah.
31:52
But let me ask you a similar question, and maybe this is unfair. Do you have a favorite of any of the ones you've done where you've been like surprised beyond belief about it? You know, I love...
32:03
And so for all of the investigative work we've done, and there's a whole laundry list I will not, uh, I will not indulge myself with on your show.
32:11
We interviewed Maury Povich, and I love the interview we did with Maury Povich for so many reasons, in part because this is the king of daytime television, now retired, who just let me watch episodes of Maury with him.
32:26
[laughs] Watching Maury Povich with Maury Povich was like an out-of-body experience that a genie seems to have granted me.
32:34
And so when he's walking me through what it was like, he's telestrating what it was like to, uh, reveal that this gentleman was not the father, it was just one of the greatest moments of my life.
32:46
[laughs] Let alone the revelation, guys, that Maury Povich, in his competition with all the other kings and queens of daytime television, remember the era that this was in.
32:55
This was Oprah, Jerry Springer, Ricki Lake, and all of that.
32:58
Of course, Jerry Springer, the late great Jerry Springer, who's no longer with us, but Maury Povich told me he still-- And Maury Povich is now retired, he still checks the TV ratings to see if he is beating Jerry.
33:10
[laughs] He's not hosting his show anymore. Jerry Springer has died, and Maury Povich cannot stop hosting. He can't stop competing, and that in a way is sports to me also. Pablo, we gotta run.
33:22
I could-- We could talk for 10 minutes about this. Uh, next one is Jokic in the harness racing I believe is, is coming up. Yes. That's Tuesday. Spoiler alert, harness racing. We go and do it.
33:33
We find out what Jokic loves about it. It is insane. Pablo Torre finds out. Thank you so much, Pablo. Appreciate it. Thank you, guys. Courtesy of the DraftKings Network. We're coming back with Falica next.
33:49
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. It's Kentucky Derby time. Are you ready for the greatest two minutes in sports? Saddle up with DK Horse and official DraftKings affiliate.
34:00
Right now, new customers who download the DK Horse app get a 100% deposit bonus up to $250 when they opt in with code VSiNHORSE, all one word. That's VSiNHORSE, Kelly. No space in between the VSiN and the horse.
34:11
VSiNHORSE. Just deposit $25 or more. Complete the play through requirement. Download DK Horse now to join the Run for the Roses action only on the DK Horse app. I feel like you're getting frustrated by that promo code.
34:23
Like if VSiN owned a horse, you would not be okay with there not, with there not being a space in between it. That's correct. [laughs] You've, once again, you've sussed out the situation, Kelly.
34:36
I'd like to apologize to everybody 'cause I didn't do my job earlier. Uh, Drew Dinsick, when, uh, yesterday, at some point when we were on air yesterday, was doing some hit for NBC,
34:47
and we found out because you're in a, while I'm in a tennis chat with him and others- Yeah. Yeah...
34:52
you're in a equivalent basketball chat with him and others, and apparently they were live texting Drew getting makeup applied for the first time in his life.
35:01
I, I don't even know if that's true, but assuming it was, though. And it didn't go well. Yeah. And I should have asked him about that.
35:07
There was a couple, there was a couple tweets just about, uh, Drew didn't feel like he needed any makeup, you know? And, uh- Drew was, Drew's like, "Makeup on this?"
35:15
I, I know Chris Falica's been there many times before, too. It is always entertaining when, when you see- Oh, man...
35:20
when you see the, the dude get makeup on for the first time and see their reaction of whether it's, "Okay, this is what I'm expecting," or, "Wait, I've got a million questions."
35:29
And, uh, it sounds like Drew fell into that second camp. Speaking of Chris Falica, he is the Bear.
35:34
He comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line from, uh, Connecticut, where of course, he's looking forward to the Derby. He's, uh, the host of the Bear Bet spot over at Fox Sports.
35:43
Uh, he will be on hand for the Belmont when they, uh, do the, uh, third leg of the Triple Crown over there at Fox, but he joins us now. How you doing, Chris? I, I I'm doing good. I, I'm a lot drier than Drew.
35:55
I, I am not, uh, envious in the least that I am not there this year 'cause, uh, when it is wet and damp and ch- cool, like, it's not, uh, the optimum experience. It's, it's still a good, a good time.
36:07
But yeah, you're right. The, the, the first time you sit in the chair and, uh, the, the, the makeup artist gets the, the, the airbrush out and like blow- blows the... It, it's, it's, it's, uh, it's an experience.
36:18
I, I suggest you try it. You, that... I think that could be the next evolution of a numbers game. [laughs] You get a makeup artist- Oh, yeah. [laughs]... with the D there, and you and Kelly can- Yeah...
36:26
can, can get some airbrush, and you're good. That's what, that's what we need here. Uh, all right. Well, let's start with horses 'cause I know you wanna talk soccer, and we got some baseball thoughts from you as well.
36:34
Mm-hmm. First of all, are you over the Guardians thing? Are you okay? You all right about it? I'm, I'm, I'm okay. 'Cause, 'cause like, like, like you, we said the other...
36:41
like, like last or two nights ago, it was an absolute lock that they were gonna win. Of course. So I, I, I played them that night, and, and yeah. We're, we're, we're, we're okay with it. Yeah. We're, we're...
36:50
We've moved past it. I was a little weirded out by how okay quickly I was. Like it hurt bad in the moment, but then... And maybe it's 'cause I had to do the show the next day and talk about it, but like I, I wondered.
37:04
I... There was a little part of me that was like, "Have I become so numb to this that it should be concerning?" [laughs] That was kind of my thought. It, it, it, it hurt, it hurt from... Yeah.
37:16
Like it was initially I l- I sat there like, "That really just happened?" Yeah. And like I was speechless for about five or 10 minutes or so, and then I was like All right, we got an NHL game- Yeah...
37:28
Pens are playing the Oilers. Let's go. That's exactly right. That's exactly how it was. All right. Well, let's start with the Oaks today. What are your thoughts and what are your bets?
37:36
Uh, the, the Oaks is a, is a really tough race to, to get a grasp on, 'cause you can make a legitimate case for any of five horses to win.
37:45
Uh, you can ma- if, if you told me Leslie's Row is one, if you told me Just FYI won, if you told me Ways and M- Way, Ways and Means won, if you told me Tarifa won, if you told me Thorpedo Lana won, I wouldn't be shocked at any of them.
37:56
But you, you're, you're not gonna just sit there and box like the top five horses in an exacta, 'cause that's not gonna come back and, and do you any good.
38:04
I, I guess if you na- narrowed it to two horses, uh, to, to basically play around in in exacta keys and on top of trifectas and you're, and you pick fours and pick fives, the, the two would be the one that you were mentioning, Just FYI, who won the Breeders' Cup, uh, Juvenile Fillies last year.
38:21
Uh, really ha- didn't have the best of it early on in the year. Uh, Bill Mott brought her along slowly. They got a race into her a couple of weeks back to get her ready for the Oaks.
38:31
Uh, she should be ready to run her best race of the year today. And the other one is Ways and Means. The Chad Brown filly who just got into the field is probably the best horse in the last prep race at Gulf Stream.
38:44
Uh, she had a brutal trip, and she has been working phenomenally from what I hear, uh, on, on, on the Churchill Downs track.
38:52
So that, that's the most important thing, like getting a, getting a handle on this track, uh, especially with some sloppy conditions, it looks like on, on hand for the day.
39:02
So, uh, Ways and Means, Just FYI would be the two that I would play around with the most, uh, i- in that race.
39:08
And I, and i- I know a, a good sharp handicapping friend of mine, uh, thinks Where's My Ring could potentially be a, uh, a sleeper horse to, to pop the trot.
39:17
But I don't, I don't think this is gonna be a race where you're making a huge killing, a huge score. This is one of those where, uh, you're g- you're gonna have five horses probably between
39:28
3-1 and 5-1, and, uh, it, it's gonna run to the board with two of those three running first or second. Okay. Uh, Louisville weather now. Mm-hmm. We, we are expecting rain tomorrow as well.
39:38
Um- [clears throat] Now, whether it's during the race or not, you would have to, uh, get a more specific forecast here as the day go, uh, continues today and then into tomorrow.
39:48
But has your thinking changed from the last time we spoke to you, or, or has it solidified? What are you doing? Yeah. No, it, it, it's pretty much the same. Like I, I, like we talked about.
39:58
I think Fierceness is the best horse. However, can we trust him to run his race? Uh, and what happens if he does not get the easy lead? And Drew kind of alluded on it.
40:09
There, there are gonna be some other horses on the front end of this race where he probably isn't going to have the easiest of leads, and he is yet to show that he can overcome adversity when not having the lead on his front end, and why now should we expect that to happen, uh, i- in a 20-horse field and on a potentially an off track?
40:29
Maybe we'll see what happens by, uh, post time tomorrow, uh, in, in the best field with 100,000 fans screaming. So I, I think you need to handicap and bet the race i- in two different lanes.
40:40
You bet it with the Fierceness is the best horse, and you use him on top with some long shots, and then you bet it in the lane where you look at the price horses like Just a Touch, Just Steel.
40:53
Uh, Resilience is a super long shot, but I, I, I think Just a Touch is the best horse in the race. I, I made my argument for him the other day with how well he ran in the Blue Grass.
41:03
Uh, we talked about these old rules and the strikes against the Derby winner. Uh, you can't win unraced at two. You can't win off of three races. Well, 2018, Justify had, was unraced at two.
41:14
His fourth race in 20- in the, in 2018 was the Derby. He won. Last year, Mage was unraced at two. His fourth race last year was the Derby. He won.
41:22
So, like, those old school rules of the ca- strikes against the Derby winner, uh, I, I just don't think they apply anymore. So I think Just a Touch has a, uh, a massive move in into it.
41:32
Oh, man, if that horse wins, I will love you forever. Let's go. Just a Touch. By the way, a lot of song titles here, right? Forever Young, Rod Stewart. Just a Touch. Slave- It's amazing.
41:45
[singing] Chris Fallica, everybody. There it is. Yeah. Al Bernstein, move over. Here comes Fallica. Exactly right. All right.
41:51
So here are the two questions I didn't get to ask you last time, but I ask you these every year. One is the one that I ask everybody, which is, okay, I come to you from the future. A horse won the Triple Crown.
42:00
What horse was that? It would be Fierceness, just because I, I, I think, uh, he's the most likely horse to be able to do it. However, I'm curious.
42:11
I, I don't think we're gonna get one this year, and Drew me- not only mentioned the Baffert horses that'll be running in the Preakness. You have to remember, too, the Belmont is gonna be at Saratoga this year. Yeah.
42:22
And it's not going to be a mile and a half. Gonna be a mile and a quarter, whi- which I think brings more horses into that race to be able to win at a mile and a quarter opposed to winning at a mile and a half.
42:35
So I just don't think it's gonna happen w- like I said, the, the Baffert horses that Drew mentioned that are waiting in the wings, fresh and ready to run at Pimlico, and then a mile and a quarter race as opposed to mile and a half where some of these other horses, uh, that you wouldn't necessarily think could get a mile and a half at a mile and a quarter, it probably brings them into the, into the race.
42:55
But I would think that, I, I would think that if you had to pick one, Fierceness is the obvious answer, unfortunately. Yeah. So will there be a 2024 Triple Crown, Crown winner is six to one on the yes at DraftKings.
43:06
Fierceness specifically to win the Triple Crown is seven to one at DraftKings. Sounds like you would need longer numbers than that. Yeah. I, I would.
43:13
Like I said, I wouldn't suggest laying the, the 1,200 or whatever it is on the no, just 'cause that, that's just ridiculous to lay that big of a number. But, but I, I, I would need a little bit more.
43:24
You, you're better off just with the, uh, the rollover o- on that, especially being Fierceness is probably would not be an overwhelming favorite in the Preakness.
43:32
And then the other question that, that you have answered so wonderfully in the past, and I... You may have just already given us the answer, which is the Tr- you know, because it's at Saratoga, maybe it nullifies this.
43:41
But in 2017, I asked you, we were talking Derby, you were like, "But I'll tell you this, Taperit's gonna win the Belmont," and Taperit did. No such hor- no such thought now, I guess, with the change of venue? No.
43:52
No, I, I, I don't have one. With the change in venue and the change in distance, I really don't have a, uh, a Belmont horse right now. But g- give me a, give me a week or so.
44:01
I'll see some of the outliers who finish just outside the, uh, Derby points top 20 and who maybe, uh, Fletcher and Chad Brown have waiting in the wings. All right. Um, we'll talk some baseball.
44:10
We'll talk some soccer on the other side. How about that? Let's do that. Yeah, and I got some other undercard picks too. Oh, undercard picks. The Derby. Derby's just one race.
44:19
We focus on it, but it's a whole day of racing at Churchill Downs. Damn right. We'll do that. [laughs] He said, "Damn right."
44:24
Plus the phone number where you can call Pablo Torre and give him suggestions on what to investigate. We'll get to that too next. Numbers Game, presented by the Sports Betting Network.
A Numbers Game
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