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May 5, 2025
A Numbers Game | May 5, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | May 5, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. So, all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. My name is Gil Alexander. That right there is Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Hello.
0:22
Producer number nine, so much more than a producer. How you doing, man? I'm doing great. How are you doing? I'm doing fantastically. Thank you. Well, lovely weekend in Las Vegas. Oh my God, we have rain?
0:31
We have rain, yes. It's cold. It was a rainy Sunday. It was very hard for me to get off the couch yesterday. Oh, it was fantastic. Yeah, it was awesome.
0:38
If- if we could be guaranteed one day a week like this during the summer, real estate prices would ri- rise exponentially. Yes, you are 100% right. What, what, what, what are we supposed to top out at, like 72 today?
0:51
Oh, man, it's fantastic. It's May 5th. Give, give... Enjoy it while we can- It te- 'Cause it's, 'cause it's coming...
0:57
it terrifies me every spring we get one last cold day like this, 'cause I'm like, "Oh, boy, it's gonna, it's gonna be- Oh... 110 till, like, November." Remember, what was it last year? 15 straight days of one...
1:07
No, excuse me, 20 straight days of 115 or higher last year. Human beings, just gonna suggest this to you and Bugsy Siegel and everybody else who came up with this idea.
1:15
[laughs] Human beings were not supposed to live here. It- So let's enjoy this while we can. On- once we get to, like, 104, there's no difference anymore. Like- Oh, I disagree. Disagree... oh, I, I, I... No.
1:26
That's where- Disagree, because when it goes from 115 down to 104, you're like, "This is fantastic." Yeah, no, disagree with that. Mm-hmm.
1:34
And, and, and there, and, you know, Matt Brown and Matt Youmans are both waiting for it to still get warmer so they can go golf- Well-... at 104. They need the, they need people cleared off the golf course.
1:42
I mean, Matt Brown is Matt Brown, and Matt Youmans is a medical marvel, so there you go. He really is. Uh, Carl Sack, NBA Today from Killer Sports.
1:49
We'll talk to Carl about all four conference semifinals, and boy, does the NBA have four great ones lined up. One, of course, has already started with the Pacers game one upset of the Cleveland Cavaliers.
2:02
We'll talk about that here momentarily. Paul Sporar on baseball.
2:04
Wes Reynolds joins us to talk about Scottie Scheffler shooting a million under par this past weekend, what he's got coming up with the PGA, uh, championship, what else he's betting on.
2:14
Spanky will join us, the creator of BetBash. Spanky, also, uh, host of the Better Betters pod- Be Better Betters podcast. It's always hard to, uh, get that. Be Better Betters podcast.
2:26
And, uh, he's got this handicapping, this MLB handicapping contest going on, which he came on the show a month ago to talk about, and I hope everybody caught that. I hope everybody joined.
2:36
But we'll, we'll do it one more time here, because this is a pre all-star break MLB handicapping contest, which I am participating in, by the way. Uh, it's about 200 people deep. Okay. 10- $10,000 top prize. Woo.
2:48
Yeah, man. All right, let's go. It's a marathon. 240 picks minimum from beginning of baseball season to all-star break for you to qualify. Doesn't matter when you make them? Just before? Doesn't matter. Okay.
2:59
You can make 10 today, 10 tomorrow. You can get there in tw- you know, as quickly as possible.
3:03
You can lollygag it the whole way through right up until, you know, the middle of June or, excuse me, middle of July, when the all-star break happens. Um, but that's part of the deal, too, is getting enough volume. Yeah.
3:14
Um, so we'll talk about that. And this is probably the last reminder of this, because once you get past early May, it's gonna be virtually impossible for you to get to 240.
3:24
You know, if we did this in beginning of June, it'd be like, well, now you gotta really do a ridiculous amount of games every day.
3:28
I, I don't even know how, you know, sw- switching to our NBA one with Carl, it's like I, if I didn't start firing out of the gates- Oh, yeah... I don't know how I would've gotten to 20. That's right.
3:37
So some of those guys that waited, I was kind of impressed with, uh, making up ground.
3:41
Uh, by the way, first round in the books, and the, uh, leaderboard for the NBA, what Kelly's referring to is the VSiN Killer Sports NBA Playoff Challenge, which we're doing here.
3:50
15 handicappers, uh, with the top prize, what is the top prize, $3,000 in this one? It, I believe so, yes. Uh, first round, Doug Kazerian, 14 and 6, Steve Fezzik, 13 and 7.
4:01
Kelly Beidlan and Alex Christensen both 12 and 8. Yeah, I think I lost my last three games there, though, so that's kind of frustrating.
4:08
I had the, uh, I had the under in the Pacers game last night, and it, oh, it, yesterday afternoon, and it almost got there- Yeah, yeah... somehow, somehow. Uh, also, by the way, uh, who else?
4:19
W- w- well, no hockey g- we don't, we're having hockey yesterday. Well, that's, that's unfortunate. That's what we got Jake tomorrow. Okay. We'll talk, yeah, we'll talk a little puck with Wes.
4:25
Well, let's just do, we'll talk puck with Wes, but I just wanna say this.
4:27
The, the NHL looked at the NBA game sevens and was like, "Pfft, your game sevens are adorable with your, with your blowouts, with your Nuggets crushing the Clippers, and all the NBA hardos, with the Warriors kind of easy peasy getting by the Rockets," uh, which we'll talk about.
4:43
But did you see that? I mean, while we were watching the NBA- [laughs] Yeah... good God. Th- th- this is two, it was two nights in a row.
4:50
First of all, there was that Edmonton game a f- few nights ago where the Edmonton was down two, and they stormed back and won, uh, against the Kings, which was awesome.
4:59
And then two nights ago, um, Rantanen for the, for the Stars, for the Dallas Stars, he had a hat trick, b- basically scored a third period hat trick to, uh, help the Stars advance past the Avalanche.
5:12
Um, Mikko Rantanen, who played with the, uh, who played with the Avalanche, comes back to haunt his old team. What an amazing dominant performance. That was down the stretch of that game.
5:21
And then last night while we were watching basketball, Winnipeg, down three to one, scores twice in the final two minutes. First, uh, it was, uh, Vladislav Namestnikov who scores, and then a, a last moment
5:37
goal, and I'm talking 1.6 seconds left in the game, Cole Perfetti, off a shot from, uh, left winger Kyle Connor, past Jordan Binnington, and they force overtime, do the, uh, do the Winnipeg Jets, the President's Trophy winners this year, uh, with 1.6 seconds left, and then they end up winning in double overtime, in the second overtime, I should say, on an Adam Lowry, uh, deflection.
5:58
And so Winnipeg, by the way, only eight President's Trophy winners have ever won the Cup since they started doing the President's Trophy in the mid-'80s Only eight.
6:08
I would say that's interesting, but as you always do a great job of every post-season talking about- It's completely random... [laughs] talking about how- It's completely random... wild the playoffs are with the NHL.
6:16
You're 100% right. It's completely random, and no one should be surprised by that stat.
6:20
[laughs] Um, so anyway, the NHL's just amazing, and so we'll, uh, obviously the, you know, four series in the, in the NHL, uh, left as well with Florida and Toronto, game one tonight.
6:31
Uh, Panthers, by the way, all the teams without home ice to that point, Kelly, every team without the home ice is the favorite in the series. So Florida, a minus 170 favorite, uh, uh, for the series. Hmm.
6:43
Game one tonight at Toronto. Um, Carolina at Washington. Carolina's a minus 160 series favorite, game one tomorrow night in DC. Edmonton at VGK, this is the closest, most closely lined one of them all.
6:58
Edmonton a minus 115 favorite in that series against the Golden Knights. That starts at T-Mobile tomorrow night. And then Wednesday night, the aforementioned Winnipeg Jets, um, have home ice against the Dallas Stars.
7:10
Dallas the minus 160 series favorite. So we'll talk hockey as the, uh, week progresses.
7:14
As far as the NBA yesterday, uh, Pacers get it done, [laughs] 121-112 game one win over the Cavaliers in a game that does go over the total.
7:23
Not only, of course, do the, uh, do the, uh, Pacers cover, but they win it outright. They led 36 to 25 after the first quarter. They closed that with a 10 to nothing run. They led by six at the half.
7:33
Cavs did take an 85 to 84 lead with 3:16 left in the third quarter after a 10 to nothing run themselves. That was actually a part of a 13 to nothing run. But then Indiana led at 92 to 90 at the end of the third.
7:45
They closed the game on a 20 to 10 run to give you your final score of 121-112. It was tight up until that moment. Nembhard 23, Halliburton 22 and 13 assists, Mitchell 33 in defeat.
7:58
But what's the stat we only need in a box score to tell you who won the game, Kelly? Three point- Threes. Pacers 19 of 36, 52.8%. Cavs nine of 38 for 23.7%. Overcoming, by the way, 16 Pacers turnovers.
8:13
Cavaliers, should they be worried? Adjusted series price, Indiana plus 170 up a game. Yeah, I think there's, uh, I think you gotta separate a couple things here, right?
8:25
I think if you, if we just looked at the game one results and a lot of the numbers that you just ra- ran through, no, I wouldn't, I wouldn't be worried.
8:31
The, couple that together, though, with Darius Garland looking like this is a little bit more serious than- And, and how soon before game time did we learn of this? I, this wa- I, I was, I was fairly surprised.
8:41
I will- Yeah... I will s- I, I don't wanna put it like that. I wasn't 100% sure he was gonna be back right away for game one. But it was, it was minutes. It wasn't hours. But it was very close to game time- Yeah...
8:50
and I was fairly surprised to see it. 'Cause I think it's, if he's missing game one, then we're probably talking missing game two, and then it reja- reassessing things for once they have to hit the road.
9:00
So, um, that's, that's a big deal. That is a big deal.
9:03
I think it's important to keep in mind when you see what Donovan Mitchell did last night and how much of the offense usage rate shots that he put up, you have to keep in mind that so much of the Cavaliers' success this year was Donovan Mitchell willing to take a bit of a step back, Gil, as far as being that offensive dynamo and involving the rest of this team and getting them all better together as a team, and a lot of that had to do with his play with Darius Garland.
9:27
So, uh, look, if Garland's not gonna be on the court, you're gonna see a lot of what you saw out of Donovan Mitchell last night, and that's gonna be a lot of shots up from him.
9:35
I think you could look pr- uh, player props over, but it doesn't necessarily make this team better as a whole.
9:40
So I'm not s- I'm not gonna say huge concern for the Cavs right now, but couple Garland with, with a, with a loss at home a little bit for sure. Game two is tomorrow night in this series.
9:51
The total remains at 229 and a half. The spread ticks up to minus nine and a half in favor of the Cavaliers. Most people would immediately go to zigzag here and be like, "Oh, lay it." Are you that confident in that?
10:04
So I, th- this is n- I, I probably will end up there, Gil. I haven't pulled the trigger yet, though, which should tell you something.
10:09
You know, I, I like to bet a lot of openers in these games, um, especially since I think all the money's only gonna go the Cavaliers' way from now until basically that game time.
10:17
Probably be more of a first half look for me, uh, but maybe full game as well. But I'm not going crazy.
10:22
Again, if we're, w- if we don't know Garland's in there, look at what the rest of this offense did on the Cleveland side, and there were some struggles. Uh, Ty Jerome was awesome all season. Yeah.
10:31
He can't be putting up 20 shots in this offense. No one loves Ty Jerome more than me. Uh, he was the, the official, uh, player when he was with Virginia of, of a numbers game.
10:39
We loved him, uh, when he took Virginia to the title, but I had that same feeling- Yeah... last, yesterday.
10:44
A- and they did a great job of pointing it out on the broadcast, but this is just, this is just not what this Cavaliers team's been all season long as far as putting up that.
10:51
You had 50 shot attempts between Donovan Mitchell and Ty Jerome. That's not, I, that's not how this is gonna work, uh, to get past the, the Pacers. So- The, the playoffs really brings that out.
11:00
I'm not, I'm not co- not comparing Ty Jerome to, say, like a Quentin Post for the Warriors, but when you're watching the Warriors, you're like, "Get him off the court." [laughs] Right, exactly. Yeah.
11:08
Um, so yeah, it, look, it was a great game one, and credit to the Pacers, right? I think there is, some of the things you've, you brought up, the turnover differential. Everybody's gonna point to the shooting- Right...
11:17
as we often do, but the turnover differential, there were a lot of parts of this game that the Cavaliers did dominate.
11:23
And look, they took that lead in the third, and the Pacers could have easily have given up and, a- and lost that game. They came back and won it.
11:30
Uh, Warriors-T'Wolves we'll get to after the break, after the Warriors game seven win over the Rockets yesterday. And then, of course, both game ones tonight, or games one, however you wanna say it.
11:40
Uh, Knicks-Celtics, Nuggets-OKC, rest or rust, plus a May baseball update on the other side. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:49
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12:05
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12:47
Jesse Welch, Kelly, "I'm super pumped to see if the NBA decides to announce the Hump Day Award today, which recognizes the player who played best on Wednesdays." Like, he says, "WTF are we doing here with some of these?"
12:58
I think what Jesse's referring to is these hustle awards and best teammate awards and all that stuff. You don't, you don't like the teammate award? Uh, best teammate was Curry. No, it's Curry, yeah.
13:07
Best hustle was who Dr- was- I have no idea. No, somebody got- Can't, can't bet on it. I don't care... somebody got best hustle. Let's see. Yeah. Um- Hustle... was it Draymond? Somebody got something.
13:16
Dan Groeschel, "So far the White Sox and Athletics are among the leaders with three wins in May. Is 250 to 1 too short of a number on Chicago to win the month?" We'll get to this momentarily, Dan Groeschel.
13:27
Draymond Green was the winner. Thank you very much. Uh, JoeC714, "Yes, let us give a shout-out to Mike Samo Bomb Samich."
13:35
Joe C, "Since I hit that derby Samo bomb, I've decided to retire from horse betting except one superfecta every year. It was a great career. Still over the moon about this."
13:44
What he's referring to, and thank you, Joe, for that, Mike Samich strolled on- Incredible... strolled on into the show on Thursday and superfecta-ed it to death. It, and- Fantastic...
13:54
and did multiple shows, VSiN At The Track throughout the- Yep... weekend. Yep. Uh, stuck to it the entire time. Hits that.
14:01
It, yo, I love the timeline because you're, like you said, he comes on here Thursday, goes through all those, so I easily could have just tailed it and made a lot of money this weekend doing that.
14:10
But no, on Friday we go, "Are we sure?" And I felt a little bad after this of how I phrased it, of, "Are we sure you and I are gonna lose money betting horses this week?" Mm-hmm.
14:19
'Cause it implies maybe we're not listening to some of our guests. That's what it does imply.
14:23
What it, what, what, what I should have clarified, though, is I always get lazy with stuff, so I can't, like, go through the, the million different combinations like Samich did and make a lot of good money.
14:32
I just, I just at the end was like, "Wait, who's the most popular horse? I'm gonna go stick with Journalism," [laughs] "... the favorite, and bet him to win."
14:40
So therefore that's how I lose money and Mike Samich wins a lot of money. Sovereignty winning the 151st Run for the Roses.
14:47
Um, and that segment that we did with Samich last week where he was like, "13, 6-4, 7-3, 4, 7," and that was, like, terrible radio, made you tons of money. [laughs] Yeah. That's right. That was the trade-off.
14:58
Which would you rather have? You can only choose one. Great radio or win a ton? Oh, man. I, I don't, if you're a fan of this network, it's the second one. [laughs] Like, let's just list at numbers.
15:07
If it makes me money, fine. Let me, let me answer before we move back to basketball. Let me answer Dan Groeschel's question.
15:12
This is the, uh, we're, we're obviously, it's only May 5th, but I should mention that these are the current May standings for most wins in Major League Baseball in the month of May, and looky here who's at the top just after three games.
15:24
It is the San Diego Padres. San Diego Padres, 3-0. They're the only undefeated team thus far, uh, in the month of May. Obviously it's super early.
15:32
They sweep the, uh, the Buccos, the Pittsburgh Pirates, and now starting today... By the way, here are my, um, this is, you know, I did this last year all the time.
15:40
I g- I do the grid of what I think their projected, what I project their record to be, what their actual record is. So I had them at 20 to 6. The Padres played 26 games.
15:49
So they're on pace basically according to what I think. So now this is the series. This is the, quote-unquote, "hardest series on paper" that they're about to play here at the Bronx. By the way, there's weather.
16:00
There is rain expected tonight. Paveta versus Rodon tonight. I'm on the Padres, both, uh, first five and, uh, game- Ooh... in this one tonight. I've been betting, I bet them every game.
16:10
They are, uh, they, they were really fair. I mean, they were a dog, for goodness sakes, in one of these games this weekend. They were short favorite in another one.
16:17
So, uh, yeah, I mean, the Padres, again, here was the thing with this handicap as we show, we can show the whole standings for the month of May if you guys have that as well thus far.
16:26
But essentially right now you have a bunch of teams with three wins. The Padres are the one that's 3-0. [lips smack] Tigers, Cubs, Royals, Giants, White Sox, Athletics, Nationals, and Guardians, all 3-1.
16:36
So obviously it's early. Everybody has either 23 or 24 games left. There you see the standings right now. Early, early in the month of, uh, May, guys, not April. Most wins, uh, in the month of May.
16:48
But, uh, Padres tonight against the, uh, the Yankees. This is a series, again, where if the Padres, I have them projected, just to be fair in my 20 and 6 projection, as going one and two in this series.
16:58
So if they can win, if they get, if a game is played tonight and they can get a win, they got Michael King going tomorrow, so that would be just spectacular for the Padres.
17:07
And I think it's a favorable pitching matchup, and the price is, is a trigger bet for sure on Paveta.
17:12
Uh, and but the big thing with the handicap that I mentioned, w- Padres getting, some people got 35 to 1, as long as 35 to 1 at DK. I didn't. I got 25 to 1 at Circa.
17:20
[lips smack] Um, that Luis Arias had already come back. Lockridge came back right after that.
17:27
Jackson Merrill is supposed to be activated today for the Padres, the, uh, the reigning Rookie of the Year in the National League.
17:35
So Jackson Merrill's supposed to be activated today to play in the Bronx tonight, and then Jake Cronenworth is supposed to be activated on Friday to play at Colorado on Friday night.
17:44
So the lineup is gonna be full strength by Friday. Huge reinforcement tonight, uh, supposedly in Merrill. And, um, I just can't say enough about the Padres. Let's get it done. Let's keep winning them one by one.
17:56
Um, the Warriors, game seven with the Rockets yesterday. Kelly, in the first half, Steph Curry scored three points, and the Warriors- He sucks. Coming from the hill...
18:07
kind of, kind of ho-hummed their way to a 51 to 39 lead. I'm not even sure, I texted you this, I'm not even sure the Warriors were all that spectacular.
18:16
Obviously the defense was good, but part of it to me was just this is the thing with the NBA. We saw it in the Knicks-Pistons series. We saw it last night Experience matters. The young team was tight.
18:26
Uh, ultimately with the Rockets though, this was always their bugaboo, right? When they need points, who do they go to? Yeah. And if Jalen Green is not reliable quite yet on a night-to-night basis, they're kinda toast.
18:38
And then Steph came alive. Steph ended up with, uh, with 22, 10 and seven. Playoff Jimmy, 28 and seven. Buddy Hield, this will always be remembered as the Buddy Hield game.
18:49
33 for Buddy Hield on 12 of 15 shooting, nine from 11 from behind the arc. Draymond added 16. Uh, Amen with 24 and nine in defeat. Sengun, 21 and 14. But again, three-point shooting, Dubs 18 for 43. Rockets, six of 18.
19:05
That'll do it. Mm-hmm. And the Rockets out-rebounded, and this is why I bring this up projecting forward to the Timberwolves series now.
19:12
The Rockets out-rebounded the Warriors through the course of these seven games by 51 boards. So now that, with the Timberwolves, again, this is a six-seven series.
19:21
Timberwolves are the six, they'll have home court here in this best of seven conference semifinal. Are you surpri- uh, you know, the Timberwolves are gonna have the size advantage.
19:28
How they're gonna play it, I have no idea. Uh, are they going to try to go big? Are they gonna try to go small here? What are they gonna do? Series price. Are you surprised by this?
19:40
By the way, Minnesota a six-point favorite tomorrow night in game one. 207 and a half is the total. The T-Wolves are a minus 175 series favorite. The Warriors plus 150. Disrespectful. What do you say?
19:52
I, uh, [laughs] a little bit. A, a little bit. We talked about this last week. You asked, I think it was last Tuesday, you, we, you asked both myself and Drew kinda what we thought- Yes...
20:02
series prices would be for this. I thought it was gonna be, look, I thought anything below, like minus 120-ish or better on Minnesota, I'd probably be involved.
20:11
We ta- I think Drew and I were both in the range of about minus 120, minus 130. Oh, I thought you were minus 120 on the Warriors. N- uh, no, no, no, on the, uh- Oh... on the Timberwolves' side. Okay.
20:20
So the, loo- look, it would be Warriors or nothing for me. I'm gonna pass and just probably play this game to game. I think it is an interesting matchup.
20:29
But, you know, at that time when we talked about this last week, what, what did it look like?
20:32
It looked like the Warriors were gonna have an easier path to victory than they did over the Rockets at that time, and the Wolves still hadn't wrapped up their series with the Lakers.
20:40
So I, I, I understand there being an adjustment because of that, but this feels like a pretty heavy one to me. So I'll stay away, attack this game to game.
20:51
I think the Timberwolves, yes, the size that they're gonna be able to bring to the table sh- will be an issue for Golden State.
20:57
Um, but, you know, we'll see what Golden State does, and if they're able to kinda play around and get the, the double big lineup that the W- Wolves are gonna try to throw at 'em on a night-to-night basis kinda off the court.
21:08
I just, I, I keep getting back to this, and, you know, full disclosure, I love the Warriors. Been calling them the most beautiful thing in sports for years.
21:16
Four titles should've perhaps could have been, or could have perhaps should have been six. Um, I think this is a terrible price. I think I will b- I think I will be on the Warriors plus 150.
21:26
I haven't bet it yet, but I think I will. Um, I think the Warriors train ends the next series against either the Thunder or the Nuggets, 'cause they don't play well against the Nuggets.
21:37
Um, but I just, for me, this is a, uh, this is again, it's very, it's sort of disrespectful. I just think the Warriors have a way.
21:44
This is why after, remember after when they lost to game five and you said, uh, th- th- they're embarrassed, and I said, "Are they?" 'Cause they've been through it so many times, right?
21:53
That, or excuse me, when they lost game six. Well, they got crushed in game five. Are they embarrassed? I can't remember. Whenever you said it, I'm like, "Are they?" Yeah, game five.
21:59
'Cause they've been through everything, right? And game seven, I know everybody after game six was probably in a panic, but it's like, no, they, th- no, there, it was no panic.
22:08
And game seven, by the way, they have a history of going into Houston.
22:12
Houston just cannot stand this franchise 'cause this, the Warriors just own them in the postseason, and I just feel like nothing phases them whatsoever. Nothing phases them whatsoever. Are they a championship team?
22:23
Probably not. But do I think they have one more series in them? I sure do. Two of the better teams down the stretch in the NBA. I think that's important to keep in mind. Um, I think it's gonna be a great series. I do.
22:33
I, uh, I, I'm still, I don't think this Minnesota team is quite as good as they were last year with, uh, with Kat too, so we'll see. The NBA hardos are going right from the Clippers to the T-Wolves, though. Yeah. Not me.
22:45
Okay. Like to hear that. [clears throat] More NBA, including tonight's games. Carl Sack next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
Unmatched transparency with records updated daily and AI betting analysis, the Sharp Plays, including real-time global betting information and alerts directly from the pros.
23:06
We invite you to check them out, the Sharp Plays at sharpplays.com. Skill Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. We get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciate the, uh, feedback. Corey Henderson775.
23:18
Kelly, I'm gonna need you to, uh, step in for interpretive skills for this one. Ready? "Went to South Point for the race," he's talking about the Derby, "didn't win the race, but hit a taxable at the bar by the book."
23:28
I believe that would be a, uh, jackpot of some type, either on slots or I'm gonna guess video poker. "Was in the Uber when that gully washer started Saturday." I think he's referring to rain.
23:39
I w- It wasn't that much rain. [laughs] "I've never witnessed that kind of monsoon before. Hagar was awesome." I guess he went to see Sammy Hagar despite the rain. Yes. Wow.
23:49
These- Kelly and I did have to talk this one through during the break- That, that tweet-... but we figured it out. We cracked it... that tweet took a lot of turns.
23:53
Uh, Charles in Connecticut, I don't know if you all saw this yesterday during the Indi- uh, Indiana-Cleveland game.
23:58
So with 4:46 left in the second quarter, whoever was doing the, uh, the score graphic, what do we call that in the business? What's the score graphic called? A score bug or a lower third. A score- Yep... score bug.
24:09
That's right.
24:10
Uh, he couldn't figure, he or she couldn't figure out how to do it, so at one point with 4:46 left in the second quarter, I don't know if you caught it, but while the game was going on, the score bug had it the Cavaliers 245, the Pacers 50 They were up by 195 at that point.
24:26
Do you see that everybody? Now you make one mistake and everybody... There it is. There you go. There it is on screen right there. Look at that.
24:30
Just another, uh, you know, we, we, we've talked about a couple o- ways that we, we would like to use the cash out option, Gil. Yeah. That, that's another one, by the way. That would be great. That's another one.
24:39
What do you mean? They're up ni- they're up 195. Uh, Kevin Ryan, "Gil went to Harold's in Cave Creek, Arizona, where they have off-track betting to watch the Derby.
24:47
Had a picture of Zombo Bomb superfecta from his, uh, Friday show on my phone. Line to bet was crazy long, so I didn't bet it. I hate myself." Oh, man. Wow. That's tough.
24:58
Uh, all right, uh, ladies and gentlemen, what- We, we also had, we also had great results from Drew Dinsick. Yes. And as Chris Felika tw- uh, texts in- Yeah... he also did a great job too.
25:07
Everybody was awesome last week. Everybody was awesome. A seven to one winner on Friday. I did tail you on that one, uh, Felika. Yes. So good job on that. And then the exacta and the trifecta for the Derby from Felika.
25:16
Hey, good on you. We can't have, we can't let Mike Samich have all the shine. Yeah, God forbid. [laughs] God forbid we do that. Uh, Carl Zack, ladies and gentlemen, is, uh, the NBA guru from past days with Dr.
25:26
Bob, but you, uh, know him now at killercappers.com, killersports.com. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line from his lair somewhere outside of Denver, Colorado. How you doing, man?
25:37
How are you doing, guys? Doing very well. Let me, let me ask you about tonight's games 'cause we've, we've already skirted around.
25:42
We'll get to Golden State, uh, Golden State, Minnesota, and to, uh, Indiana, Cleveland game two momentarily. But tonight, a double header, two game ones, beginning with the Knicks at the Celtics. Boston's a nine...
25:54
Well, we're showing nine and a half. I can see some nines also, but they're a big favorite. Both of these games, by the way, lined similarly, right at around nine and a half. Boston a nine-point favorite, uh, total 213.
26:05
As far as the series goes, Carl, Boston is a minus 800 favorite, the Knicks plus 550 coming back. Do you have overall thoughts on these two teams, and then any plays tonight?
26:18
Well, Boston should be getting Jrue Holiday back, and, uh, in the f- in the series against Orlando, they were, they were down a player in pretty much every game. Um, I, I make Boston a few points...
26:35
I, I make this spread a few points higher than it currently is. Um, big favorites tend to do well in the NBA playoffs, despite what we saw with, uh, Cleveland yesterday. Uh, Boston's more rested.
26:51
Uh, i- on, as terms of the side here, I, I, I definitely, uh, would play Boston. Boston or nothing. By Boston n- With all this now, Carl perhaps telegraphing one of his NBA, uh, challenge plays as well. Who knows?
27:08
Our NBA Visa and, uh, Killer Sports Challenge that Carl, uh, conceived. The brainchild came from him. Okay, so Boston or nothing there. Nothing on the total? Um, yeah, I might look towards a, like a first half under.
27:22
I think that these teams get out a little bit slow. For some reason, the market has it shaded towards the under.
27:28
Like, you know, the full game's 212 and a half, so you expect to see about 106 and a half, something like that.
27:35
It's, it's got it up around like 109, I believe, um, which is a little surprising to me because if you look at the second half of the season, both these teams have actually been slower in the first half than in the second half.
27:48
So I'd, I'd lean first half under. Okay, game two tonight, game one of the Denver-OKC series. Uh, Thunder, nine and a half point favorites, totals at 225 and a half.
27:59
For the series, the Thunder are $7 favorites with the, uh, the Nuggets plus 500. Now this is very interesting to me from a couple standpoints. One,
28:08
I feel like I'm tempted by the Nuggets, and I know NBA hardos go crazy whenever you say anything, uh, counter to the, uh, to the Thunder.
28:15
But I will, I will ask you this, and I'm curious if you have any kind of data on this. So the Thunder, because of their own greatness, right, because of their own doing, they have not played a game, right?
28:25
They swept the Grizzlies. They haven't played a game since April 26, so that's nine days ago.
28:31
And if you go back further, they haven't played a game at full strength, 'cause remember, they already clinched the, uh, the number one seed in the Western Conference.
28:41
They knew that they weren't gonna get to 70 wins, so they didn't play guys for the last three games, I think. Well, Holmgren might have played the third to last, but generally they didn't play guys for the last three.
28:51
Uh, so they've played, when you put all that in the wash, they haven't played a game at full strength since April 8th, besides those four games versus Memphis. So four basketball games in 27 days.
29:04
Rust or rest, does it matter? Do you have any data on that kind of thing? Yeah. Uh, the data supports the rest. Um, it, it definitely does.
29:18
Uh, my line makes this game just pure power ratings, you know, factor in experience, that kind of stuff. I think this line is fair. Not only does the historical data favor
29:30
rest, uh, but it typically favors going against a team that's coming off of a seven-game series. You know, you've got that emotional must-win, do or die. Um,
29:42
so yeah, I, I would lean OK- I was leaning with the big favorite again here- Okay... in game one.
29:47
But leading with big favorites in game one in both of those games, and also it sounds to me like you think those series prices are fairly accurate. Uh, yeah. I mean, if I was gonna...
29:58
I- if you like the dog in either of these, I might wait until game two. Okay. Uh, especially in the OKC series, you know. Like, I can see, I can see Denver almost punting in game one.
30:10
You know, they get down 10, 15 points. They played heavy minutes 48 hours ago. I can see them kind of saying, "You know what? Let's rest up and get game two."
30:20
Um- So yeah, I, if, if you like the dog in the series, I might wait until game two and get an even better price It's g- it's generally sound advice right there. Generally sound advice.
30:29
Of course, you do risk, you do run the risk, 'cause the caveat, the asterisk to what Carl is saying is you do run the risk of perhaps a game one upset, and then the train leaves the station, as they say.
30:38
Uh, t- Like the Indiana series yesterday Like the Indiana series, which brings us to game two tomorrow night. Uh, Cleveland's a nine-and-a-half point favorite. It's a tick up.
30:47
The adjusted series price has the Pacers at plus 170 still, up one to nothing. They've got home court. Are you tempted at all by that, or do you think the Cavs come storming back in game two and for the series itself?
31:00
I'm not sure how I see this series going f- uh, entirely in terms of, like, the series price. I, I typically am a game-to-game bettor. I think, I think Cleveland storms back in game two.
31:14
I, I think Indy's a little fat and happy. I think Cleveland has the adjustments to make. Um, I think you see some shooting regression. We talked about the three-point variance in game one. Maybe they get Garland back.
31:27
Um, it would definitely be Cleveland or pass for me in game two. Okay. Carl Szek, not generally Chalk McChalkerson, but he's three for three here on these, uh, game ones.
31:36
Okay, and excuse me, game two- Well, I, hey, I, my plays have been a little bit, uh, haven't been doing so well the last week or so, especially in this contest, so maybe take it with a grain of salt.
31:46
Well, no, we, we, we still know the long-term matters. Two game ones, and of course game two with Indiana and Cleveland, of course, and then game one between the Warriors and the T-Wolves tomorrow night.
31:54
T- Timberwolves installed as a six-point favorite. The total is 207 and a half, and the T-Wolves a minus 175 series favorite to Warriors plus 150 on the comeback. Your general thoughts on this matchup?
32:10
I heard you guys talking about it, um, in the last segment, and I think that this is kind of similar to the OKC series where, you know, Golden State's coming off a game seven. Uh, they're not, they're, they're
32:23
not nearly as rested as Minnesota is. I think that game one will be a Minnesota spot. Um, Gary Payton's a question mark. You know, he was apparently really sick yesterday, and, um, you know, he brings some defense.
32:38
But I w- I would, i- if you're interested in Golden State here as well, I, I do make Minnesota, uh, on a neutral court, I do make them a few points better, um, despite the Golden State experience advantage.
32:52
But if you're looking to play Golden State on the series, I think I would wait until game two, and again, get a better price there. What do you think is the most competitive series of, in the end, of all these?
33:03
Definitely Minnesota-Golden State. More than Indiana-Cleveland, even with Indiana up one? Well, I guess that's a fair point now that, now that Indy's up one and has stolen home court.
33:14
I fully expect Cleveland to win game two and bring it back to Indiana 1-1. Um- All right. Yeah, I guess that gets you, that gets to be a toss-up. That's all right.
33:25
I, so it, the, a lot of lean to the favorites and a lot of, uh, uh, interesting strategy in terms of if you do like the dog, wait till game twos across the board. Uh, Carl, appreciate it as always, man.
33:36
Thank you so much, and thanks for the contest again. Yeah, thanks for having me on, guys. Good luck. My man. Paul Sporer, Major League Baseball next on a Numbers Game right here at VSiN.
33:52
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34:16
Everybody's gonna be, uh, feening for what Falica, after his, uh, big underdog horse won the other day, and Samich with the superfecta, and Drew, of course, as well.
34:25
Everybody's gonna be ready to go for the Preakness- Yeah, for real. [laughs]... in, uh, in 12 days, the second leg of the Triple Crown. Um, Sovereignty's gonna run, I guess, I, I think. I haven't heard otherwise.
34:39
Yeah, me either, but- Yeah... I, I haven't checked my horse, uh, Twitter feed too, too much between- Yeah. You haven't, haven't checked-... Saturday and now... horsey Twitter. You haven't checked that yet?
34:45
[laughs] Uh, let's talk some baseball. By the way, we did get this, uh, I'm gonna answer this one, tennis question from Mark Decard, who said, "No tennis today? Nothing on the page?" Rome starts tomorrow.
34:55
They're still doing qualifying today. So Rome now, this is the r- this is the only tournament left before the French Open, so we've finally gotten to the, uh, to the slow clay.
35:04
By the way, in case you missed it in Madrid, uh, Aryna Sabalenka beat Coco Gauff in the final, and, uh, yesterday Casper Ruud said, "Don't forget about me on clay," and takes down Jack Draper, uh, as a big dog.
35:17
So, uh, yeah, Rome, now we're on the slow clay. Tennis be, uh, will, tennis picks will begin tonight, again, for subscribers, vsin.com/picks.
35:24
I will have those up on the VSiN picks page, in addition to, uh, the baseball plays, Padres first five and game tonight against the Yankees, assuming it gets done, assuming there is weather that stays away from, uh, getting this one complete.
35:40
Paul Sporer joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line to talk some baseball. You can follow him on Twitter @Sporer. He works at FanGraphs. Name of the podcast is Sleeper and the Bust, for goodness sakes.
35:50
And of course, tell us of your other job again, Paul, by the way. How you doing, Paul? Doing very well. Thank you so much for having me on. I am the, uh, content director for Out of the Park Baseball's Perfect Team game.
36:01
It's a card collecting game, [clears throat] uh, throughout all of baseball history. So I create the cards there. You collect your team. You simulate against other, uh, o- other human opponents. It's a lot of fun.
36:11
So you can have a team that has, you know, Fernando Tatis Jr. and, and Jackie Robinson on it, things like that. You can really dive into the history of baseball, uh, and it's a lot of fun. That is a baseball life.
36:22
Again, when we see these documentaries of football life, one day we will have Paul Spor, a baseball life, a life dedicated to sport.
36:28
Let me just ask you this, uh, 'cause I know you're still w- licking your wounds about your Pistons. Your Tigers, though, there's nothing to lick wounds about. Uh, they are- Hmm...
36:36
they have the best record in the entire American League. They're 22 and 13. Their run differential, uh, is, is the best, plus 63. Uh, it's the best run differential in the entire major leagues.
36:50
Um, what say you about this Tigers team? How optimistic are you? I'm very excited. I, I'm really, really happy with how things are going.
36:59
You know, when Scott Harris came in, really smart guy coming into the organization to lead the squad.
37:05
Uh, it didn't happen immediately, which, you know, uh, in today's s- i- instant gratification culture kinda bothered some people. "Why, why isn't this team any good?"
37:14
And then they had the, the switch kind of flip last year in the second half, and there was some flukiness to that, right?
37:19
And I always point out that without Minnesota's collapse, you barely would've noticed that the Tigers surged. They needed the collapse to go with it to make the playoffs and then make some noise there.
37:29
But they didn't rest on their laurels by any stretch. They went out, they added, and they were, they were competitive obviously for Bregman as well.
37:36
It could've been an A+ off season, but this team is very much in a contention window that they see here, and, and they're trying. Like, they're pushing.
37:45
I think there'll be trades again this year, depending on what the team needs, but I'm really, really excited with how things are going. They've obviously gotten some standout performances.
37:54
Javier Báez, chief among them, I would say. Obviously Spencer Torkelson doing some great things, but his expectations were higher.
38:00
So I would say actually Báez is a bigger surprise, even though his numbers are, are quite a bit less than Torkelson's, just because of the expectations coming in.
38:07
So things are just going really well right now, and I, I think there is some very m- a lot of legitimacy to what they're doing. You're wearing a Cincinnati Reds hat. I would be, uh, remiss if I didn't comment on that.
38:18
Is there a special reason for that? Are you bullish on the Reds? What's going on? I am bullish on the Reds. That's not specifically why I wore it, but yeah, th- you know, they've been playing a lot better.
38:27
Uh, when Terry Francona came in, this is the- somebody that you kinda give a lot of credit to at the outset and kinda see what he can do.
38:34
And so a team with the talent that they had, I thought they greatly underperformed last year, and I still think that they've got some flaws, but putting one of the best managers at the helm, I think, is a, is a great way to start to turn the tide, and we're starting to see that.
38:47
They are playing some solid ball. They're a game over 500. Again, gobs of talent there. Still some things to work out, but I'm pretty interested in them.
38:54
And that Central, we talked about it all off-season and into the early season. Nobody really made a lot of moves. The Cubs made some big moves, some splashy moves, and of course they're 21 and 14 to show for it.
39:05
The rest of the division sat on their hands. So I think it is wide open here- Yeah...
39:09
for a Reds, and, uh, b- before the season started I thought maybe the Pirates could make some noise, but they just have no hitting to speak of, and then Jared Jones got hurt.
39:17
But the Brewers and the Cardinals are also right there in the mix, so that's a wide open Central, um, at least for second place right now. I don't know if anyone's gonna catch the Cubs. They are doing the right thing.
39:25
They're running away and hiding right now at 21 and 14, uh, to keep those other three teams at bay. But I think they're all solid. Reds, Brewers, and Cardinals all have their merits.
39:35
If you power ranked teams right now, who's your number one overall in all of Major League Baseball? 'Cause I'll tell you who I think mine is. It's a wonderful question, 'cause I...
39:46
And it's not instantly the Dodgers, because you can't... I, I don't think you can look at that pitching and, and really say that right now.
39:54
I think it might be the Mets, and I'm a little bit surprised at saying that, but I, I, I love what thing, what, what they've got going on, and that's without Juan Soto being Juan Soto yet, right? He's just been fine.
40:05
It is kind of funny that we're nitpicking a 130 WRC plus, but that's the level that he has set that we can actually kind of do that.
40:13
You know, he's a sub 400 OBP for the first time ever, so there can be some nitpicking here.
40:18
But if he gets going, in addition to everything else they got going on, obviously they're gonna be going in the right direction 100%. They're already 22 and 13. So yeah, I think right now it's the Mets.
40:28
I wanna say the Padres, but I, that, h- second half of that lineup is just so suspect that I have a hard time doing that. So I'm gonna go Mets.
40:35
So the team, by the way, the Mets lose two dou- two games in a double header yesterday to the Cardinals, each by one run. In the first game- Mm-hmm...
40:41
I don't know if you saw that, but, uh, one out, bases loaded in the eighth, and Alonso completely got squeezed on a pitch, and, and that was, that was bad umpiring- Brutal... and the Mets lose that.
40:51
I, the team you wanna say, the Padres, is the team I would say. Um- I, I th- I thought you might be going there. Yeah. I, I just think they are. They got Arraez back. They're getting back Merrill tonight.
41:00
They're getting back Cronenworth on Friday. They still don't have Darvish. That's a great point. Yeah, they still don't have Darvish, right? I, I get that. But that bullpen, Paul- Mm-hmm...
41:09
uh, Suarez, Estrada, Morejon, Peralta, Matsui, Jacob, Adam. I mean, you can... There are... You can shorten these games, not that they need to sometimes, right, with King- No, you're right, though... and Pavetta.
41:20
Not that they need to, but if you need to, you can. And I just feel like offensively they are good enough and that the reinforcements are coming. I think this might be... And this is, this is a Giants guy talking, right?
41:32
So obviously the Dodgers- [laughs]... are the behemoth. I think the Giants are super scrappy. But I kinda think the Padres might be the best team right now.
41:39
I, I think you might've sold me, though, because I, I definitely forgot, uh, that Merrill and Cronenworth are... Well, Merrill's back tonight- Yeah...
41:44
Cronenworth back soon, and that my biggest concern of, of tabbing them there was their lack of lineup depth, even though they've been getting it done with those guys. So ha- hats off to the Jason Heywards.
41:55
Luis Campusano was DH-ing yesterday. Oscar Gonzalez, Martín Maldonado, Jason Heyward, José Iglesias, a bunch of fill-ins, each kinda doing their thing on a given day.
42:05
No one's been great in that group, but they've all kinda done some things to stem the tide until Merrill and Cronenworth come back. But yeah, Merrill back tonight. You know what?
42:14
I'm gonna f- you, you got me to flip my answer. I am gonna- There you go... bump them.
42:16
'Cause it was, they were really close to the Mets anyway, so now that I have been reminded about Merrill and Cronenworth on their way back, I'm gonna bring them up to the top.
42:23
Mets are still number two for me, though, which means Dodgers three. Uh, and then I think maybe my Tigers would be four. Uh, I don't want to be too much of a homer there, but I think four makes some sense.
42:33
Uh, th- what we're realizing and underscoring as we have all year so far is that the NL is an absolute powerhouse. Absolutely. Just say it's really weighted towards the NL this year. By the way, the Padres 22 and 11.
42:44
The, my favorite Padres stat of the year, 22 and 11. Guess how many shutouts they have already? Eight. Eight shutouts. I was gonna say six. I was close. Eight shutouts already for the San Diego Pirates. That's crazy.
42:55
This is unbelievable. And that gets to your point about the bullpen. Yes. So even when their starters don't get things done, and, and, you know, even Cease hasn't been, Dylan Cease- That's right...
43:03
Nick Pivetta's kind of made up for it. King's been great. But they've been running, like, two studs and then three kind of mix and match. But that bullpen just completely eliminates things.
43:13
And if they have a lead after, like, the fifth, it's over. It really does feel that way. Uh, DFS to take us home, sir. What do you got today? Short slate, 10 games today. So it, it's an interesting- Yeah.
43:23
Yeah, an interesting short slate today, 'cause there's not a lot of reliability at the top.
43:27
Fantasy folks so angry that Nick Pivetta got pushed off the Pittsburgh start yesterday to face the Yankees and Colorado both on the road this week.
43:35
Fantasy people hate it, but the P- for the Padres it makes a lot of sense. Let Steven Kolek face the Pirates. Let your stud Nick Pivetta face the tough teams.
43:43
I am still interested in him, 'cause I think people will lean away at the Yankees, and I, I get it, but he can be an interesting pivot. Cole Regan's coming back from the, uh, groin strain against the White Sox.
43:53
But then you're really looking at a lot of risk. And, and there's gonna be a lot of different plays today. Shane Smith is somebody I really like. KC is not hitting well.
44:01
He, he does struggle to go five, and the win probability is low, but I love Shane Smith for the White Sox. Brady Singer has shown that moving from KC to Cincinnati has not bothered him at all. I really like him.
44:11
Matthew Boyd, Griffin Canning, Ryan Nelson, A.J. Smith-Schaufer, of those four, someone will be a stud tonight.
44:16
I couldn't tell you who to save my life, though, because all four of them have remarkably difficult match-ups. So it's four talented arms, but very, very difficult match-ups. So it's a wide open board today.
44:27
You gotta be careful out there navigating. And do not start Landon Roop. I know he's been intriguing, but the Cubs- Thank you, Paul... Ace is only against the Cubs right now. Take care. Coming back
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