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May 5, 2026
A Numbers Game | May 5, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | May 5, 2026 | Hour 1
00:00
47:04
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. So one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. Gil Alexander. Kelly Bidlin. Hey, yo. How we doing? I'm doing well.
0:22
Just got the, get the pack working behind me. It's good. It's okay. He's gonna do this whole show with two hands tied behind his back. I'm good. I'm good.
0:30
I have, I have a burning question right off the top of the show, but let me just tell you who's on the show today.
0:33
Jay Cohn on the Stanley Cup playoffs, Drew Dincic on some clay court tennis and some National Basketball Association playoffs, which, man, got into full swing with the conference semis last night.
0:46
We'll get into momentarily. Mark Borchard on Major League Baseball, Paul Carr on the Champions League. Just the number one champion sound. Uh, and then we'll, uh, we'll do some props later.
0:55
The NBA's semis, conference semis, that is. Or as we're listing it there on the s- on the sheet, the second round, if you prefer that. You know, good on you. You, you are calling it the accurate name. Conference semis.
1:06
That's what they call it. I'm being sloppy. I'm like second round. That's all right. Sloppy as you are. Mm-hmm. Here's my burning question. Uh, CarShield, you're familiar with CarShield? Steven A. Smith is do- Heaven.
1:16
I, we come in the studio, there's a CarShield commercial on. You're familiar with CarShield. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Steven A. Smith is now doing a CarShield commercial. How much is CarShield paying these people? Steven A.
1:28
makes what, 20 million a year, something like that? 18, 20 million a year? I don't know exactly. Somewhere in that ballpark. What, what must they be paying him to get him out of bed to do a CarShield commercial?
1:37
Uh, it's a great question. They also have an i- an interesting, uh, roster of spokespi- spokesmen, I would say, spokespeople. Yeah. Um, my favorite one is when Ice-T and Vivica A. Fox team up for theirs.
1:48
[laughs] 'Cause it's, like, very dramatic. Well, I under- It's very, very dramatic... I understand why Ice-T and Vivica A. Fox may do a CarShield commercial. I, I, no, from y- Yeah...
1:56
from, from the monetary standpoint, I completely agree. Yeah. It's a great question. I was surprised when I saw it myself a few weeks ago, but, uh, yeah, I think, think Steven A. likes to say yes to things. It's amazing.
2:06
Absolutely amazing. Uh, let's talk about these ba- By the way, we have a, we have a tennis, I have two tennis matches for subscribers in the overnight.
2:13
Uh, the first one was a winner, a plus 120 dog on Aleksandra Olena-Nikova. Uh, d- you gotta like when the font gets squeezed. Y- yeah, you gotta like... Then, then you're dealing with a real tennis player.
2:24
She beat, uh, Petra Martić in, in straight sets. Now, I have Kamila Rakimova in the second match. Uh, so we're trying to get the 2 and 0 clean sheet as opposed to the wash, and they went to a third set. Are we...
2:38
How, what are we doing? Oh, it's started already. I was gonna say, if, if the third set hadn't started yet, I was gonna say, "People, jump on in if you want," but the third set has begun.
2:45
It is on serve early in the third set. We'll see if we can't get the clean sheet. Uh, let's go to basketball. Last night, conference semis begins, and, uh, those two games were not like each other. Let's put it that way.
2:58
Yeah. Firstly, the New York Knickerbockers, they win their third straight game by at least 29 points. Hoo. What is, what is going on? Uh, clearly the most dominant team in ba- in the history of basketball, Gil.
3:11
[laughs] And if you are a Knicks fan, you should not be concerned whatsoever- No... of this, of this coming down at all. They will continue to play at this level and roll through the rest of the NBA playoffs.
3:20
He's being sarcastic, boys and girls. 137-98, they beat the Sixers. I wanna thank Kelly Bidlin, uh, for telling me not to bet it early in the day and saying, "Why don't you wait on this? It might get higher."
3:31
It never did. I wanna thank Carl Sack, as we had the discussion yesterday on the show. I'm like, "Well, I'm not gonna- Also gonna talk to us...
3:37
I'm not gonna take the Knicks, but I might, you, you might have talked me off this." Right. [laughs] Yeah, yeah. Um, but 137-98. Because I do remember, you know what it was? It was sort of a throwback to...
3:46
I can remember Bob throwing out his numbers a lot for situational bask- uh, playoff basketball stuff. This was clearly one of these spots, um, if you believe in such things.
3:55
Of- First quarter, Knicks led by as many as 10, eight after the first quarter. Brunson scored the last 11 of the half for the Knicks. 27. Brunson had 27 at the half.
4:05
Knicks led by 23 at the break, 74 to 51, on the strength of a 41-point second quarter.
4:11
Third quarter, they led by as many as 34, by 31 after the third, and the fourth quarter they led by as many as 40, and they won by 39. Brunson with 35 at the end. The Knicks shot 63.1% from the field. Mm-hmm. 63.1%.
4:29
They were 53 of 84. By the way, they shot 51.4% from behind the arc, 19 of 37. So, so 63.1% from the field. I'm always curious when I see a number like this that stands out.
4:40
I'm like, "Well, for, just for context, what's the highest field goal percentage any team has had in an NBA game this year?" Knicks shot 63.1% last night. Any idea?
4:51
Uh, if it wasn't that, wasn't it the Knicks the game before? It was the Indiana Pacers. The Indiana Pacers had a game this year against the Hawks. Oh, I thought you m- I thought you said playoffs. Sorry.
4:59
No, no, just the whole season. 67.1%. So this was about as amazing as it gets- Yeah... in terms of just your percentage from the field. Knicks crush. A one-off? Just a, just a one-game thing in your opinion?
5:12
Okay, so c- I mean, a couple things.
5:14
I do think, fr- from a betting, betting conversation first over a basketball conversation, it's the, we often talk about rest disadvantages, and y- you know, like you pushed back a little bit on, on that yesterday.
5:25
It's almost impossible to, like, put a hard number on what that means, right? This is- For me, it wasn't a rest disadvantage. For me, it was just a mental disadvantage. Okay.
5:33
It's like they came o- they, they, they slayed the dragon, and it just looked like they were like, "We're good for-" It sh- Yeah. I mean, they... I was shocked at Max.
5:41
He loo- how exhausted he looked, and Bead was, I mean, and Bead was in bead. He's grabbing something all the time.
5:45
He's got, you know, he's got an appendix hole or something that's bothering him throughout his entire, in his body throughout these last- Was his keeled over at one point. Yeah, yeah, I, I shouldn't joke about that.
5:53
I have no idea what's going on. The man had s- had something removed from his body surgically, and now he's grabbing his side and back-to-back games.
5:58
I mean, the st- the stitches are gone, so it's not like, it's not like it's gonna pop open or anything. G- hopefully. Thank you. Yeah. Thank you. I appreciate that. Yeah. But the, uh... Like, it was...
6:06
My point is, when we talk about that in handicapping games, like, you never think it's gonna look as massive as that appeared last night. Wow. I mean, right?
6:14
Like, that was just almost from the jump, you th- you got to halftime and you thought, "Okay, maybe, maybe this changes in the second half." No. Um, it only got worse. I think that yes- Second half was unwatchable...
6:26
second half was unwatchable No, yeah, yeah. And, you know, with the terrible staggering of TV start times, uh, you know, that was kind of a good thing, I guess. I do, I agree. Right? Ended up being a good thing.
6:34
It's incredible. Yeah. Um, I think the one, I don't wanna say a complete one-off, this is couple games in a row from New York. They've looked very impressive.
6:42
I think this is a, you know, a, a very good Knicks team, as we've talked about. I think this is, whoever wins this series is probably coming out of the East.
6:50
I- but yes, I think to expect the Knicks to play at this level over and over again is too much to ask. And I think the one maybe most notable thing is you didn't want...
7:01
If the Sixers come back in the second half and lose that game by one point, way worse outcome than what happened last night, because Joel Embiid at least got to rest a little bit.
7:11
These guy- he only played 25 minutes in the game, right? It just became a total blowout where you're wor- maybe worried about rest- It's a good point... with these games every other day. Joel got to rest a little bit.
7:21
Game two last night, much different. Yeah. Much more exciting. Spurs, T-Wolves. Ant Edwards, after we were off the air yesterday, he was a go, an absolute go. Shocking.
7:32
Um, well, we knew already that he was a big participant in shootaround, so we kinda had the directional indication that he would go, but it was official. He didn't start, but he came off the bench.
7:42
Spurs led by seven in the first quarter, 17 to 10, but immediately a seven to nothing T-Wolves run out, uh, to end that. 24-23 T-Wolves at the end of the first quarter.
7:52
Uh, second quarter, T-Wolves led by as many as six, 29-23, but a 12 to nothing Spurs run put them up six, but then a seven to nothing T-Wolves run gave Minnesota the lead right back, 36-35. It was 45-45 at the half.
8:05
Third quarter, nip and tuck. Spurs led by only as, as many as five, T-Wolves by three. It was 72-69 Spurs at the end of three. And then as the T-Wolves have done all playoffs here, they went crazy in the fourth.
8:17
84-81 Spurs. The T-Wolves go on a 14 to two run to go up 95-86. Nine-point lead with 4:41 left in this game, their biggest lead of the game to that point. It's 101-94 now Minnesota with under two minutes to go.
8:32
Vassell misses a three. What's my man's na- how do you pronounce my man's last name? Julian? Champagnie. Champagnie. About to say Champagny for a second, as we used to call Champagne back in the day.
8:42
Uh, Vassell misses a three. Champagnie with a follow-up, 101-96. Gobert fouled, he hits one of two, 102-96. Wemby misses. Champagnie board. Wemby misses again. Champagnie off the turf
8:54
for the board, gets off the floor, gets the board put back, 102-98 with 1:07 left. Then Randall with a great floating banker, 104-98. Wemby with a drive and jam, not to be denied.
9:04
It's still 104-100 with 44 seconds left, and then Ant is pinned on the, uh, sideline.
9:11
Vassell steals it in the same way that, that Draymond stole that ball in the play-in game, right on the sideline right there, sort of with the back of his hand.
9:17
Ahead to Dylan Harper, and all of a sudden it's 104-102 with 31 seconds left. No timeouts being called. Randall no good. Harper rebound with six seconds left. Still no timeouts being called.
9:28
Pushes it ahead to Champagnie. Gets a look from three to win it. No good. Ball game, 104-102 Minnesota. They were up nine like a blink of an eye ago. Had to withstand that final shot. Ant was killing himself afterwards.
9:43
Like, "Gave up two rebounds, got the ball stolen from me." Randall 21 and 10 in victory. Edwards 18 off the bench on eight of 13 shooting. Harper led the way for the Spurs with 18.
9:54
Wemby though, 11 points, 15 boards, and 12 blocks. But the T-Wolves take the one to nothing lead in the best of seven series against the Spurs. Um, do a...
10:06
They've, they've done their job, let's put it that way, in the first two games. Mm-hmm.
10:09
Uh, as far as the, uh, killer sports contest was concerned, Kelly, this was still sitting at the static Minnesota plus 13 at a half, so this was a free bingo square for s- for those of us who decided to choose it last night.
10:20
Yeah. Yeah. What, what's wrong? You didn't, you didn't play it? I think the, the hour cutoff was a, was a bit more than an hour. That's what I ran into last night. What do you mean? I tried to get in, I couldn't get in.
10:32
It was got, it cut, it cut, it locked up games from over an hour out. Oh, I don't think that's true. I just put it in just after an hour. I mean, just- It w-... just before an hour. It was, uh, yeah, I got locked out.
10:44
Um, good, good for you though. [laughs] Kelly- Um-... Kelly is screaming that there's something afoul going on here... it's shenanigans. Shenanigans. I'm calling shenanigans on that last night. Okay.
10:53
Uh, but look, the game itself, I think that's, is this the first sign of lack of experience showing up for San Antonio? I don't know. I mean, I, I'm, I'm openly asking. It is a, a- Or Minnesota's just good. They're good.
11:08
They're good. Um, I'm really interested to see what we get going forward. I think you could bet, I think you could bet that series price. Like, that Champagnie three, three goes in.
11:17
We're staring at what, like minus 1,100 today? Oh, yeah. Minus 175 over at MGM right now. I think s- the Spurs are still the better side. Um, more depth. As low as minus 175, huh? As low as minus 175. I considered it.
11:30
I laid nine in game two instead. I think we see a strong bounce back from, uh, from Wemby and the S- uh, Spurs unit. I do too. Haven't bet it, but I do too. Don't expe- don't expect that to happen again anyway.
11:41
But good on the T-Wolves, man. Good basketball team, period. Physical with Wemby. That mattered last night. Coming back, more NBA on the other side. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:50
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13:18
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13:30
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13:47
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13:57
That's P-R-O. Head to vsin.com/subscribe today. Check it out. Uh, numbers guys, love the show, I would never complain, but your picks don't often show up for me under tennis the way that Zach's do. Is it just me?
14:11
Hey, wait a minute. Is that true? On the website? I know. Bill Ady, white glove service. Supposed to be there. I think they're there. It's, it's a, it... Check the t- check tennis, check my name, check all of it.
14:25
It i- can be a little janky. There's an easy solution to this. We just have Zach Cohen take over entering your picks. That's right. [laughs] We could do that. Zach- Or we could do that... Zach is somewhere yelling at me.
14:36
[laughs] No, I imagine Bill is super cool for doing it for me, right? No, he is. Yeah. He's awesome. Could do that. Uh, this is from, uh, no emu Doug, "Is Minnesota real? Are they the 2021 Hawks this year?"
14:48
They're real good, that's for sure. I don't, I still don't think they're beating the Spurs, but they're definitely real good.
14:54
Ooh, interesting question, because what are we ta- what, w- when we're comparing to the 2021 Hawks just of how far they got, I guess, they're a better team. Like, they're a better team than, than that Hawks team.
15:05
I can't even s- But, like, the hurdles that are in front of them are steeper than what Atlanta had. What did Atla- I can't even remember what Atlanta had there.
15:14
I don't know, but I'm just saying, I'm gonna say that without even remembering off the top of my head, Gil. All right. The Knicks were one of them, right? The Knicks were one of them.
15:19
Are we w- so this was the, this was the year they, they... Okay, the Hawks, this was the year that the Bucks beat the Suns in the NBA finals. Mm. The year after the pandemic. The Hawks beat the Knicks.
15:30
The Hawks were the five seed that year. They beat the four seed Knicks, then they beat the one seed Sixers in a seven-game series before losing to the Bucks- Yeah... in the Eastern Conference final.
15:40
Yeah, I'll still say that. Timberwolves, this is a better, better team, but, and a tougher task in front of them with the Spurs and Thunder on the horizon. What about tonight? Game ones of the other two series.
15:51
The Pistons, three-point favorites, hosting the Cavaliers. Saw some three and a halves this morning. Yeah. Three, three and a half on the Pistons. Drop it down. Total 216.
16:00
And then OKC, more than a two touchdown favorite in their first game tonight, uh, out west against the Lakers, the Luka-less Lakers. We'll start with the Pistons and the Cavs into Traw, Detroit.
16:12
Fascinat- fascinating matchup. Uh, I am on the Cavs small to win in six and seven. That's how I played it. I didn't go heavy in on the Cavs to win the series. I'm not super confident with this.
16:24
I think it's gonna be a very interesting series, and I'm fascinated to watch game one here. 'Cause I think there's a lot of things that Cleveland struggled with last series against Toronto, that guess what, Gil?
16:36
Detroit does a whole lot better [laughs] as far as forcing turnovers is all I... It, points off of turnovers.
16:42
If Hardened and this team is gonna be turning the ball over like they did against, uh, Toronto, Detroit is going to feast off of that. I think Cleveland did find some things at the end of that series.
16:52
I was yelling about it all series long, about them get- them getting beat on the glass, and that should never happen. Jarrett Allen finally stepping up in that last game.
16:59
We saw Jalen Duren step up though later in this series for Detroit too. I think the battle of the rebounding is gonna be extremely important, uh, for who wins this series.
17:07
But I think it, I think it's an interesting, interesting matchup when you're talking about a Cavaliers team who you should be able to trust in this offense. The defense has some question marks.
17:18
And then Detroit, I think it's the complete opposite, right? You have a lot of trust in this defense. Who's gonna help out Cade offensively?
17:25
But it matters so much in the playoffs that you do have that one go-to guy to go to in Cade Cunningham. So I kinda lean, uh, Pistons here game one.
17:34
I think that this Cavs, like, Cavs, not gonna get any easier going from Toronto.
17:39
If Donovan Mitchell struggled all series against the Toronto Raptors, meet my friend Osar Thompson that you're gonna have to go up against for seven games or however long this takes.
17:47
That's gonna be a tough matchup to get used to. I think it could take him some adjustment time for Cleveland. But I think this goes six or seven games either way.
17:54
I lean Cleveland overall just because I think the depth is in their favor, and just overall talent is in their favor. Heard Nick Whalen, uh, on with, uh, Jensen and Dave this morning on By the Books.
18:04
He liked Cleveland too. He leaned Cleveland or, or likes Cleveland. Feels like a lot of one-way traffic on Cleveland from the Hardos. Mm. Just again, be- brief anecdotal take in of information. And
18:16
again, this is, it's curious to me. This is this Detroit team that f- that s- that gave us problems, us Hardos problems all season long. Yeah. You know? Yeah. So it's not surprising to me.
18:26
Plus ag- plus again, 'cause somebody tweeted yesterday also, it's like, h- you know, oh, well they beat the, they beat the Magic with- without Vagner. I think the Magic are better than the Raptors
18:35
And that's who the Cavs beat. And the Cavs struggled to beat them also, so I don't, I don't get that kind of line of thinking either. Um, and it's funny. Who, who was it on Twitter? Oh yeah, the g- guy who knows it all.
18:47
He, uh, he was saying, "Oh, Gil, you said that they have the advantage 'cause you, you don't have these hard opinions. Well, I didn't see in your picks that you consistently faded the..." Yeah, but others took them. Mm.
18:59
There's nothing better than people on... uh, people who think they're smarter than they are, and they just... The, uh, the combination of arrogance and dumb. They have no idea what they're saying.
19:08
Vegas Chump, I'm talking about you. It's, it's incredible to me. So yes, so I, I'll, I'll be happy to let people run into a wall on Cleveland on this as well. That's my, that's my whole strategy there.
19:18
'Cause I, I don't have a t- tremendous conviction on the Pistons either. Yeah. But I'm happy to stay away. I think this game one's gonna be very interesting to, to see tonight.
19:26
I have a feeling, my opinion, I will have much stronger opinion after game one tonight, whether that's right or wrong- Yeah... um, than I do right now about this series. It's a- I think it's long though.
19:37
I think both, both, both se- series in the East go long. I still think that about the Knicks and Sixers. But I, I agree with you in the sense that I, I'm not sure I...
19:44
Uh, whoever wins this series, I'm not sure they beat whoever wins the other series. I don't think so. But you know what? Fluid situation. But I don't, I don't feel that way at this point.
19:53
Uh, as far as the other one, OKC is a 16 and a half point favorite. Is that what the number is right now against the Lakers? Is that what it's up to? Let's call it 15 and a half. I overshot. 15 and a half. 15 and a half.
20:02
There's some 16s out there, don't worry. 214 is the total. Give me the case where the Lakers can compete in this game. Oh, that is a great question, Gil. What, what, what has to happen?
20:12
Forget win, what has to happen for them to compete? Uh, okay. No Jalen Williams. I love this question. No Jalen Williams, uh, in this game for Oklahoma City. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
20:23
They st- the, the refs come in determined that they are going to blow a tight whistle on the Oklahoma City Thunder, who teams have been complaining about all year swiping at everything.
20:33
And Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gets in early foul trouble. LeBron James has a throwback LeBron game like we saw a couple times against the Rockets. I don't want to take anything away from Le- uh, LeBron.
20:43
And it's something like that. But the, the Thunder are gonna have to shoot themselves in the foot somehow. I... That's what, that's what I believe.
20:49
I think it's- They just would have to have such a miserable game from the field. They would just have to miss. Just have a night- Yeah... where they miss everything. Have a terrible shooting night. Ter- Yeah...
20:56
absolutely terrible shooting night. This, this is...
20:58
This series though, I will, I will tell you, there is a part of me inside that is really, really rooting for the Lakers one of these first two games to steal it because I wanna see what this series looks like late.
21:08
If, when, if Luka comes back, if and when he comes back, and if the Lakers, let's say they steal one or two, game one or two on the road, and if you think Luka's coming back game three, game four, oh, this series gets a lot, gets interesting real quick.
21:22
Oklahoma City's so strong. I think they likely, like most likely outcome is OKC in five to me. Um, gentleman sweep over the Lakers.
21:30
But Lakers can steal one of these games early, get Luka back, this series gets a whole lot more interesting. It would be. I've got absolutely nothing in this one tonight though. 15 and a half.
21:39
Luka, Luka ruled out for the first two games of this series. That much we, we seem to know. Of course, we, we thought similar- Right. Yeah... similar things about Ant.
21:46
But, uh, with the hamstring here, we believe he's out for the first two games. At least that's what the Lakers are going with. Though Luka, on the Gram, posted pictures of him lifting weights. Mm-hmm.
21:57
People reading into that. Just a reminder, we talked about this yesterday. 117 point differential between these two teams in the four games they played in the regular season. 117. OKC plus 117. Wow. Yeah.
22:11
So just shy of 30 points per game. Mm-hmm. In other words. Dominant. [laughs] That's re- That's just ridiculous. By the way, uh, JJ Redick, when asked about L- uh, was, was... Even he preempted any questions about Luka.
22:23
He says, "I don't have any updates on Luka." So that doesn't sound very- Hey, do you want the, do you want the-... optimistic... do you want the full game scores? I have them in front of me too. Yes, please.
22:32
'Cause it's, like, more balanced, so it makes it even grosser than you expect. November 12th, Thunder 121 to 92. February 9th, OKC 119, 110. Nine-point win. Uh, April 2nd, OKC 139 to 96.
22:48
April 7th, OKC 123 to 87. Phew. Just three absolute- 29-... butt whoopings... 29-9. And what are the last two? Give me the last two scores. 139-96. All right, that's 43. 123-87. Pfft. 36.
23:05
Yeah, it's bad. It's bad. [laughs] It's bad. Well, there was the nine-point game. Let's play, let's play the game we played yesterday.
23:11
Uh, if you had to take a side and you had to take a, uh, a piece of the total, where would you go? Um, I would take the Thunder side based on what we just talked about. Yeah, me too. Me too.
23:22
And then I would take the under, which doesn't make any sense [laughs] but that's where I would lead with both. But think about what we're saying, like, what, what's the most prudent play?
23:31
Laying all those points with the Thunder. All those points. Think how, like, square bear that is. Oh, yeah.
23:35
But yet in this, but yet in this day and age of the NBA and with these teams, and with the Lakers being, you know, hamstrung, if you will, no pun intended. Although it was a pun. Hey, that's a good question though.
23:46
Is, is it actually- Yeah... is it a square bear play to lay 15 and a half points? I don't know that the square, the square bears, uh, like to lay 15 points. It's a lot of points. Yeah.
23:55
[laughs] You, you understand the point though. Yeah, I do. I do. It's like we've got to that point. Uh, how many... What percentage of these NBA games in the playoffs have been unwatchable based on blowouts? I know, man.
24:04
Gotta be about 50% of them. Yeah. Yeah. Lakers, I hope you steal one of these first two, man. It'd be awesome. That's your double header in the NBA tonight. We got one game in the NHL.
24:13
We'll talk NHL Stanley Cup playoffs with Jake, Jake Hohn next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on a numbers game live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
24:30
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. Yo. And Izzy. Uh, we got tweets. Speaking of book, this is from... Where'd I leave off? Where'd I leave off?
24:39
Oh, PsyCon says, "I was gonna ask the exact same thing about not seeing your picks. Only reason I subscribe." Okay, well, was this a one-day thing or was this like last week we were killing it also?
24:49
I feel like we would've heard about it. I feel like this is a... Yeah. Yeah. I feel like this is a one-day thing. So maybe, maybe Bill just forgot to put it on there. I'm sorry, guys.
24:55
By the way, you d- it, it appears like you're not gonna miss anything. Appears like it's gonna be a wash. Bill was at the VGK game last night, right? 'Cause we're, we're down, we're down a break.
25:02
Oh, was he at the VGK game? Yeah. Oh, yeah. Give him a break. He had a busy evening, okay? Put in my tennis picks when he's at a hockey game.
25:08
Larry Fresh, "Second half of the Knicks game was so unwatchable they spent time talking about Josh Hart messing with Jimmy Fallon's shoelace. I figure that's better than this." [laughs] Oh my gosh.
25:17
I can't read the rest of this. [laughs] All right. Wait, hold on. I'm glad that was brought up, though. [laughs] It took me way too long to figure this out. Yeah. The, the NBC crossover-ness.
25:26
I, I w- I, I was wondering why I've seen some other, like- Oh... NBC people brought up on broadcast before, specifically at Madison Square Garden. It finally took to that moment last night- Here we go...
25:36
where I was like, "Ah." Mm-hmm. The synergy, Gil. The synergy. Mm-hmm. Hobbs, "Awaiting Jake Hahn's appearance." Jake Sandyby goes, "Jake is the man." Very short and sweet. He is. We'll talk to Jake here momentarily.
25:48
Hoops by Hoots, "I agree. I did not see your picks for tennis anywhere on the site." Sorry, guys. I think, yeah, I think it was just a one-night thing. Brian Point Shaffer, "Too soon, guys.
25:56
You had to open that wound up with the Hawks beating the number one seeded Sixers that year." That was the year that Ben Simmons had that open look dunk- Oh, God. Yeah... and passed it. That's right.
26:04
That dunk would've put the game away. Do you remember that? That was one of the more im- It... You're so right, by the way, Brian Shaffer. Like, that's the one moment we all remember.
26:14
Also that feels like, that feels like 10 years ago at this point. Yeah, true. Yeah, the, the pandemic has me so... I know this was after the pandemic. Pandemic- Like Ben Simmons?
26:21
Pandemic has me so messed up in terms of time perspective. Mm-hmm. Uh, PK Mountain Steel, I'm not sure what this is about. He says, "Oh, Gil, you can't win if you don't play.
26:29
We all have to keep the lights on, and scaffolding is actually the height of industrial chic." I'm not sure what he's talk- [laughs] I'm not sure what he's talking about.
26:35
James Sod, "I can confirm that I didn't see your picks on the picks page. Can also confirm the Cavs are soft and you can't trust them." Kelly Bidlin tweets in as well, "Jake is the blanking man."
26:46
That's right, that's right. [laughs] Respond- It was adding to that the man bar to- Yeah... the tweet. Yeah.
26:52
And then, uh, Bruce Dobing, "And regarding layoff slumber, Pistons had a full week off while the Magic played three win or else games. Took Detroit five games to catch up.
27:01
So yes, competitive edge is a real thing," he says. Let's talk some hockey, shall we? Let's do it. So much basketball. Let's talk some hockey. Jake Hahn joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
27:10
You can follow him on Twitter @JHahn4. That's H-A-H-N. Jake, of course, the co-host of The Point and the Fantasy Hockey Show on SiriusXM NHL. Co-host of NHL Fantasy On Ice pr- uh, podcast as well at NHL Fantasy.
27:24
Jake, good morning to you. Good morning, guys. Uh, I like all the tweets today. I especially like Hobbs and, and Kelly's tweets. Yes. [laughs] Those were the top tweets that you read. The best.
27:33
Although there were some other good ones in there as well. Only thing I know from basketball last night is that Timothée Chalamet picked the Knicks game over the Met Gala. So another thing- Yes...
27:42
that me and Timothée Chalamet have in common. It's a long list now of things we have in common. [laughs] Uh, picking sports over our girlfriends or wives or whatever it might be. So, uh, I...
27:51
He, he gained a couple more points in my books last night, guys. Such a great call. His girlfriend did go to the Met Gala, by the way. She went. She did. She had- Yes...
27:58
what is refer- was being referred to as a nude dress. It was not nude, but it was like the- [laughs]... the coloring makes it seem that way. I'll get to the bottom of it. That's my, that's my Met Gala analysis- Yeah...
28:07
for you as well. [laughs] Um, what was it, what was it specifically about those two tweets that you loved s- nevermind. Don't ask that question.
28:13
D- wait, did you guys catch the Timothée Chalamet manspreading, uh, uh, situation from the other game? The, uh, uh, in the last round with T- uh, with Tina Fey? Oh, he was, he was- He was boxing her out. Yeah...
28:23
he was encroaching, encroaching. He was encroaching. Yes. Oh, that's not good. Never liked the- It was a big thing online... the, the, the, the encroacher on an airplane. Not, not fun.
28:31
And there was, uh, there, there were some pictures to back it up. Yeah. I know. It... Dial it back, Chalamet. Come on, Chalamet. Know your space. Stay in your lane. All right, Jake.
28:40
Let me just, let, let's start from, let's start from the beginning here. Are the correct eight teams in the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs? Do you believe that these are the eight teams that deserve to be here?
28:51
It's a good question. Always a good question to ask because, uh, so obviously a lot of years, Gil, you might get one or even multiple teams that just sort of sneak through. Yeah. Maybe get a little bit lucky.
29:01
I think if you're maybe looking at one, it might be Montreal in that series against Tampa Bay, but it's so hard to call that team lucky. They've been really solid all season long.
29:10
I think it's really just game seven of Montreal-Tampa that stands out in a lot of people's minds, where they only had nine shots on goal.
29:16
They set a record for fewest shots on goal to win a playoff game, and it was in a game seven. Mm. So just a frustrating loss for Tampa, but, uh, Montreal led more of that series than the Tampa Bay Lightning.
29:25
So I, I can't call them lucky. Uh, Tampa just never really got it going in that series, and Montreal got great goaltending, and you have a great goaltender this time of the year, and Dobesh is playing well.
29:35
You deserve to be in the second round. So I, I really can't look at a team here and say that they don't deserve to be here.
29:40
Anaheim is maybe a bit of a surprise, but they took it to the Oilers in most of the games in that series, particularly the games in...
29:47
Uh, we haven't had a chance to see if that's between them and Vegas shift to the pond yet. Uh, but they, they got some great energy from that home crowd. Haven't been in the playoffs for a long time.
29:56
So to answer your question, Gil, I would say yes. We probably do have the best eight teams from the first round advancing into the second round here. Yeah.
30:02
I think, I think you're probably right about the Montreal call, but hey, good, great goaltending is a tried-and-true staple of the Stanley Cup playoffs for sure. This segues into the next question in tonight's game.
30:13
We have a standalone today between the, uh, Wild and the Avalanche. Game two of that series with Avalanche up one-nothing [laughs] after their nine to six win in game one.
30:22
Let me just ask you about the hurri- the Hurricanes who won last night and the Avalanche together before we get into the specific game with the Avalanche and the Wild today. Yeah.
30:29
Which is, the next question is, I mentioned this yesterday. So the, the longest streak of wins from the beginning of a Stanley Cup playoffs in d- in deep into the playoffs is nine in a row to start.
30:40
The 1985, uh, Edmonton Oilers of Gretzky and Coffey and Messier and Anderson, Grant Fuhr in goal, that team won nine in a row to start the '85 playoffs on their way to the Stanley Cup.
30:53
The Hurricanes are now after, they were down two to nothing to the Flyers last night. They come back, they win it in overtime. They won their first six now.
31:00
And now the Avalanche are trying to win their first six with a game tonight at home. That would be six in a row for them. Those two teams in general, do you feel like we could get one of them to nine?
31:11
Will we, will we get that? And then how do you feel about tonight's game? I, I honestly wouldn't be surprised with Carolina getting there now because of what we saw last night, Gil. You mentioned it.
31:21
You know, Flyers get that two-nothing lead. That's exactly what the Flyers needed last night. Th- Carolina had not trailed in a game all, all playoffs long.
31:28
It had just been so easy for them, so they hadn't even really gotten punched in the mouth yet, and Philly comes out, does so. Carolina responds, they come back, they still win the game.
31:36
That felt like Philly's moment now that that series does shift to, to Philadelphia where they should get some great energy from that home crowd. So I could possibly see a sweep there.
31:44
I'm still gonna give the Flyers and Dan Vladar a game and, and probably see Carolina winning that in five.
31:49
But ultimately just looking at these two teams, Gil, and I, I hate to say it because I'm always looking for value, I'm always looking for dogs, it really does feel like we're heading on a collision course for these two teams to play in a cup final.
32:00
Now, the, the one I could see maybe getting tripped up is Carolina in a conference final. I think the winner of Buffalo and Montreal will put up a pretty solid fight in that potential conference final series.
32:10
I think this is Colorado's toughest opponent that they're going to face, and if they find a way to, to sort of breeze through Minnesota in five, maybe six games, I, I don't see the, the Pacific Division winner offering too much resistance to what this Colorado Avalanche team can do.
32:24
And the Avs catch a bit of a break here. The, the Minnesota Wild, who you know, you guys know I loved in that series against the Dallas Stars, they kind of limp in.
32:31
They're already down the middle of the ice at the center ice position, Colorado had the edge, and Minnesota's down their number one center in Joel Eriksson Ek. He missed the first game.
32:39
He's going to miss tonight's game as well. That, they're already fighting an uphill battle against this team. That's one player they cannot afford to miss.
32:46
So, uh, I could see this being a Colorado, I'm still gonna, I'm still gonna give Minnesota a game, heck, maybe even two games if they can get the goaltending, but I, I see Colorado and I see Carolina both advancing.
32:56
Any play on tonight's game between the Avalanche and the Wild? So I, I, a couple props I wanna look at here, guys. I mentioned Joel Eriksson Ek with the Minnesota Wild, so that does offer up a, a opportunity.
33:06
We just saw a, a wild game, you mentioned it, Gil. Nine-six was the final in game one, and there was j- it was just a high event game. Look at the shot totals.
33:14
It's not something you see very often in the NHL, certainly in the playoffs.
33:17
Ryan Hartman is getting that first line center role right now with Joel Eriksson Ek out, which means he's playing with Mats Zuccarello and Kirill Kaprizov, two guys that can free up a lot of space.
33:26
And Hartman, if he gets the minutes, has been a guy that's never afraid to shoot the puck. He had seven shots on goal in that first game. He's plus money for three tonight against Colorado.
33:36
I'd expect that to continue at that same spot in the lineup.
33:38
You could even maybe flirt with going four or five if you wanna ladder it up a little bit and sprinkle on those to see if he has another game similar to game one.
33:45
I'd look at the, uh, safe prop for, for Colorado's goaltender, assuming it's gonna be Scott Wedgewood tonight. It's sitting around over 24 and a half.
33:53
I do think Minnesota's gonna fire some rubber over Colorado's way, and he seems to be up to the task. And maybe, maybe, Gil, a contrarian play on the under in this game after such a crazy- Hmm... game one.
34:03
I'd, I'd wait till closer to puck drop to see where this gets. I think wanna bet the over here after what we saw in game one. If it's, if it's getting up close to seven, I, I'd see some value on the under here.
34:14
So that's a wait and see one for me, because I, I do think that these teams will wanna tighten it up a little bit after a, a pretty messy, sloppy game one.
34:20
Real quick, 30 seconds before the break, uh, the other game last night, the Golden Knights beat the Ducks in, uh, game one of that best of seven series.
34:29
Uh, Golden, uh, excuse me, the, the Anaheim Ducks, they, they tied it up late, but then Vegas comes right back and gets the go-ahead goal. They end up with an empty netter to make it a three to one final.
34:38
Should that have been icing on the go-ahead goal in your opinion, Jake? It, it's a judgment call by the official on the ice, but for me, I say yes.
34:47
I, I do think that it should've been icing, and I, I thought Anaheim caught a bit of a raw deal on that one. You saw how ticked off Co- uh, Coach Quenneville was behind- Quenneville was-... the bench.
34:54
He was not happy about that one at all... angry. But judgment call, he made his call in, in the moment. It's sort of a bang bang play, so, uh, you kind of have to live with it if you're for Anaheim and keep playing.
35:04
I don't know how Golden Knights are doing this. I don't know how they got, I don't know how they got by the Mammoth. I don't know how, up one-nothing here.
35:10
We'll ask Jake if they have any shot if they have to play the Avalanche. And Conn Smythe thoughts next. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
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36:11
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the numbers game, live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander.
36:30
Producer number nine, so much more than a producer, Kele Beidelman. Heyo. Heyho. Uh- Starting a fantasy hockey league- No you're not... for the rest of the playoffs. No you're not.
36:39
If you want to, if you wanna join, Gil, okay? My first draft pick, Scott Wedgewood. [laughs] He just- The names you're discovering? Yeah, discovering, yeah, right now, yep. Michael Kettler. Thank you for this, Michael.
36:50
He says, "First time tweeter. The tennis plays are not posted, but believe it is a one day occurrence. Love the show. Cheers." Thank you, Michael. Michael Kettler, the voice of reason
36:59
Coming down from the, from the rafters. PK Mountain Steel is he's, he doesn't, uh, I don't know if he's, uh, he's got about four tweets here, but he, he's amazed that I'm staying away from the Cavs business.
37:08
I think that's the takeaway. Judd O'Connor, "Tim's girlfriend wearing a new dress. Kelly then says, 'I'll get to the bottom of it.' No stone left unturned during this three-hour window." You know what?
37:17
Oh, we cover it all here. You know what I was a little sad about yesterday? We didn't get more reaction to our hard-hit...
37:22
I mean, look, I know people get, y- the audience have gotten used to Brian Ortega with his hard-hitting movie breakdowns. I thought you and I did a fantastic job yesterday in the final segment. Of?
37:31
Breaking down movies, ones that people should see. Oh, yes. [laughs] Yes, we did. Just the most- There was very little reaction to that... this is our most childish segment ever.
37:39
[laughs] You should really- I had a good time. No, you should really go see Charlie's Ang- You should really r- you should really rent the Charlie's Angels box set. Charlie's Angels, we didn't bring that one up. Yeah.
37:48
Uh, Jesse Welch, "Fellas, we have a super cheap six-and-a-half total in the Wild-Avalanche game tonight.
37:52
Call me simple, but my hockey betting this season has been about 90% Minnesota Wild overs and I'm going right back to it." So Jesse, on the other side of Jake's, uh, thoughts on that. Jake going contrarian.
38:04
Manny Davison, "We got an explanation on MLB sponsoring PGA guys. What's up with bowling sponsoring the NHL playoffs? Who's funding this?" Oh, I didn't even notice. What? I'm getting to the bottom of that this series.
38:15
That's even, that's even, that's even weirder than Stephen A doing a, what's it called? Car, what is it? CarShield. CarShield commercial. Seriously, how much is CarShield paying?
38:25
Ladies and gentlemen, Jake Hahn, kind enough to join us for our second segment, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Again, Jhan4 is where you can follow him on Twitter.
38:32
He comes to us from Toronto, Canada, the T-dot, the six. That's all I got. I'll stop. Um, okay. Let me- I'm, I w- Yeah... I want more movie reviews, guys. [laughs] I, I want the movie takes from you guys.
38:44
So maybe, maybe deeper into the playoffs we'll, uh, when we, when there's a little bit more time, right? Can I tell you how excited I am to see Michael? Like, I have, people don't...
38:52
If you're of a certain age, Jake, this is, this is just us talking here. Like, these kids don't understand how big Michael Jackson was and how when I was, I was obsessed with this guy. I was obsessed.
39:03
I speak for millions of Americans. I cannot wait to see this movie. We're both so excited, Jake. We haven't gone yet. Oh, my God. We're gonna spin out for, like, a week and a half. That's right.
39:12
Is that, I, I haven't seen it yet either. It's funny, my 18-year-old nephew saw it before I did. Him and his buddies went to see it, and they, I'm like, "What are you up to tonight?"
39:18
He's like, "Yeah, I'm going to the movies." "Oh, oh, what are you seeing?" He's like, "Yeah, me and the boys are going to see the Michael movie." [laughs] I thought, "Really?
39:23
I didn't, I didn't take 18-year-old kids for going to do that." And he, uh, he said he liked it. He said it, he said it was a good time.
39:29
He said it was very informative for somebody that didn't, uh, really live through that era. Oh. Good for your nephew. Yeah, I hadn't really thought about that either, but an 18-year-old going to a Michael Jackson movie?
39:39
Yeah, like, they have no i- he had no idea who Michael Jackson is probably. You know- Barely...
39:43
for those of us who are Michael, who, who are, who were big fans, you know how p- everybody remembers where they were when JFK was assassinated, of a certain generation?
39:50
Like, the night that he did the moonwalk on Motown 25- Ooh... like, this was just, like, a seminal moment of our childhood. That's how, just, I can't even, can't even, I can't exaggerate it enough.
40:01
All right, back to hockey for a second. I left by talking about the Golden Knights. Golden Knights, it's, it's amazing that they're here.
40:08
They've won multiple games now that perhaps they shouldn't have, but somehow figured out a way to win in this short playoffs thus far, and here we are. They're up one game.
40:17
It, it, let's say they meet the Avalanche, just to project forward. I know we're way projecting 'cause it's only one game in. Do they have any shot against the Avalanche, in your opinion?
40:27
And then if we talk about the East, and we haven't touched on this series yet, but Buffalo and Montreal, which has yet to start, so we're gonna have two series that are two games in before Buffalo and Montreal even start with their series.
40:37
Does the winner of that series have any shot against Carolina, in your opinion? I think the winner of Buffalo and Montreal has a much better shot against Carolina than the winner of Vegas and Anaheim versus Colorado.
40:50
That's how I would look at it.
40:51
I, I, I just felt like the East all year has been fairly wide open with a lot of really good teams, and that Atlantic division, which is the, the side that Buffalo and Montreal would be coming through, is a really, really strong division.
41:02
It has been for years. Now we're seeing some different teams this year than maybe previous years where we've had teams like the Florida Panthers and the Toronto Maple Leafs involved.
41:09
So there has been a, you know, maybe new blood in there in the Atlantic, but they're still very, very strong teams.
41:15
Uh, I would give either of those teams a, a very good chance against Carolina and maybe expose some things with the Canes that we haven't seen exposed yet, that the teams that they've faced yet haven't been able to do so.
41:25
Obviously, we still have to get there, uh, but I do assume Carolina is going to get through Philly. Uh, this is as close of a series as you're gonna get between Buffalo and Montreal. It's a very tricky one to pick.
41:34
But I, I would give one of them a very legit shot in that conference final, whereas I look at that Pacific versus the Central, I've been pretty steadfast all year, Gil, in saying that whoever makes it out of the Central division is going to make the, the Stanley Cup Final, and I haven't seen enough from Vegas yet to, to change my mind on that.
41:51
They're finding ways to win games. Carter Hart has stabilized the goaltending a little bit. I think he's been, uh, average to above average, which has been good enough for them to, to win these games.
42:00
But they just look too slow to me to go up against a team like the Colorado Avalanche. Even Anaheim was exposing that a little bit last night. I thought the Ducks were the better team for large chunks of that game.
42:09
Ultimately came out on the losing end. So I, I would assume Colorado, maybe Minnesota if they could pull off the crazy upset here in round number two, the, they would be headed to the, the Cup Final for me.
42:19
Sabres-Canadiens, what's your hunch on that series? Where do you lean? This i- this is so tough, and obviously, uh, you see the price there, minus 110 for, for both sides. Boy, is it. I, I would agree with that pricing.
42:30
I would basically say, shrug my shoulders and go, "You, you guys pick. You guys figure it out." I think it's good. I think you're gonna see ebbs and flows to this series.
42:37
It's gonna be a great one to watch the energies in both buildings.
42:40
KeyBank Center for, for the Buffalo Sabres obviously not having a playoff game for a very long time, now getting to win a round of playoff hockey, and the Bell Center in Montreal is as good as it gets.
42:50
I'm very curious to see how many Habs fans can infiltrate the, the, the Sabres arena here, because they, they do a good job of that. They do it in Toronto. They do it in Buffalo.
42:58
But Buffalo's really good now, and everybody wants to go to the games in Buffalo, so those tickets might not be as available. I'm very curious what those games in Buffalo do look like.
43:07
I'm gonna lean towards Montreal here, guys. I don't see enough value on the pre-series price. I think you could be able to jump in at a better price as the series goes on.
43:15
I, there's just something special about this Habs team, and they just find ways to win games. I love how Dobesh is playing between the pipes. So I am gonna lean Montreal, but not a strong take on this one.
43:24
I think it's gonna be very, very tight. I, I could see it going seven games. It's great. And we're, we're just excited, Kelly and I, to see, uh, non-clashing hockey sweaters- Yeah, man...
43:33
some classic hockey sweaters, as opposed to- Yeah... the Ducks and the Avalanche and the Golden Knights. Good God. Good God with these color patterns.
43:41
Uh, and again, Canadiens- This is, this much better, much better goalie, or sorry, a much better jersey battle here. Yes, much better.
43:46
And I, I hope, uh, Buffalo wears the black goat head jerseys at some point in this, uh, in this series as well. You said you like those a lot as well. Yeah. Those are def- I, I do. I do... Yeah.
43:56
It's, uh, I feel like a l- a lot- some people are on the other side of it, but I, I do, I like the black goat heads. Sabres had not been to the postseason since 2011.
44:04
Canadiens trying to be the first Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup since 1993, when the Montreal Canadiens did it. Okay, to the question of the Conn Smythe Trophy.
44:13
Now, I, I say this for, not for Kelly, but for everybody else, 'cause Kelly knows this. Obviously.
44:19
That the Conn Smythe Trophy is awarded annual t- annually to the most valuable player during the entire, the entirety of the National Hockey League Stanley Cup playoffs. You knew that.
44:29
Nathan MacKinnon, a usual suspect, is a short shot here, is the short shot at plus 475.
44:35
Then you have a couple Hurricanes there, uh, Frederik Andersen and Logan Stankoven right there, plus, uh, this is 7 to 1 and, and 8, plus 850, Cale, uh, Makar then, of the Avalanche, at 9 to 1.
44:46
Everybody else is double digits. Jack Eichel is the shortest among the Vegas Golden Knights, he and Mitch Marner. What's the bet here, sir?
44:57
Well, you can definitely see how the Habs got to the second round, judging by the fact that the only name you see on that board is a goaltender in Jakub Dobes.
45:04
[laughs] So if you're looking at Montreal, you probably are, are looking at, at him. Uh, it, uh, look, I, I know I said I lean Habs in that series, but I could certainly see Buffalo winning it. I wouldn't be shocked.
45:13
And then if that's the case, I could see them giving Carolina a pretty good series in, in the, uh, in the conference final. Alex Tuch is way down at 50 to 1.
45:21
Uh, he was 100 to 1 b- before the postseason started, and he was somebody I, I really liked a little sprinkle on. Uh, number's been cut in half. I still think a very fair number if you wanna get in on the Buffalo Sabres.
45:31
But if we- if we're looking at the top teams, guys, if we do assume it's gonna be Carolina and Colorado, and you want some value on those teams, I think I would look down the board on the Carolina numbers.
45:41
Stankoven, Frederik Andersen, very deserving for where they've been. Stankoven's been carrying that team, that whole second line, and Frederik Andersen's been really good between the pipes.
45:49
But I would look down to a Seth Jarvis there at 35 to 1, who hasn't had a huge impact yet on this series. Did score a big goal last night. He had a couple assists in, in round one.
45:59
That first line is gonna have to show up at some point for Carolina. They only have six wins of a possible, uh, 12 needed to, to win this, uh, to win this whole thing, right?
46:08
So, um, uh, that's, that's kinda where I'm at. Or sorry, 16. Six of a possible 16 wins. So they still have a long way to go before they could win the Stanley Cup.
46:17
I, I do think at some point Seth Jarvis is gonna have to show up, and, uh, a little bit of a dip on that number, where we have a lot of games to go for Carolina.
46:24
Jarvis at 35 to 1, Alex Tuch at 50 to 1 would be a couple, couple I would sprinkle on right now. Kelly, no love for your guy Scott Wedgewood? No. Uh, I, I mean, I love him, but, uh- I don't mind it. Yeah...
46:36
Jake, Jake doesn't. I don't mind it. His family invented golf. I, you don't mind it? Okay. [laughs] Watch. By the way, last- And I, rumor has it, yes...
46:44
la- last Conn Smythe Trophy winner from a losing team, of course, Connor McDavid with the Oilers in 2024. McDavid. So we don't have to look that far back. Yeah. It can happen, if you're that kind of player anyway.
46:53
Thank you, Jake. Always a pleasure, man. Enjoy the game tonight. Thanks, guys. Take care. Jake, Jake Hahn, everybody. Drew Dincic on the NBA, maybe some tennis and the derby next
A Numbers Game
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