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May 6, 2025
A Numbers Game | May 6, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 6, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:47
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:10
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158. It's radio's Gil Alexander, everybody. How you doing?
0:21
What you doing? Kelly Midland is here, producer number nine, so much more than a producer. I'll be YouTube TV's Kelly Midland. The people's champion. YouTube's T- YouTube TV's Kelly Midland.
0:30
[laughs] I will always be- I like the people's champion though. It's a little, uh- I will, I will always be radio's Gil Alexander.
0:35
Um, still to come this hour, Paul Carr on the Champions League, and, uh, Drew Dinsick standing by momentarily. And by the way, uh, Skype is dead, Vmix is in for us. We're having fun. Technical stuff. Yeah.
0:45
And Drew is so good at this stuff, so good at figuring out stuff. Uh, thank God, we, we should have a- I, I, I need people like that, yeah... we should have 100 guests like Drew. I need people like that.
0:55
I hope he l- help me know what's going wrong. And you, you- That, that we can fix it... you pointed out also that in Drew's case he can call in whenever he wants, we put him on the air, so. Yeah. [laughs] Yeah.
1:02
Uh, we got tweets @bettingthebook.
1:03
By the way, I love that Eric Biggio tweet from, uh, from William Hill Caesars where he's like, "Yeah, w- g- let's go Rockies and White Sox, we need them every night," uh, from Mark Borchardt's place.
1:11
I mean, I'm enjoying you prying the other bets out of, uh, out of Borchardt besides just the base winner parlay and then it's- He's, he told us that, what are, what did we become the parlay show?
1:19
Yeah, then it's, uh, we go, r- w- what are we, White Sox and Rockies? Is that what it was saying? Uh, I was like, "Listen Mark, I, I know you got clients. They might not have known about you unless you were here.
1:30
Come on. Just give us a straight bet." White Sox and Rockies, let's roll. R- it was, that wasn't the parlay though, that was just straight run line bets. Yeah, that's run line. Yeah.
1:37
Uh, Nicky Bets 303, "History repeating itself for NBA MVP. Last time they gave it to Embiid, Nuggets won the title.
1:43
SGA much more deserving than Embiid, but still Jokic clearly the MVP, willing his team to victory last night." Uh, Jay, Touchdown Jesus, "Padres six figures stuck at, uh, William Hill Caesars."
1:53
By the way, I think they're stuck for six at, uh, Circa as well, um, unless s- unless there was a torrent against me. Uh, he said, "Padres six figures. Did I do that?" Yeah, we did.
2:05
Uh, Brian M, Brian Moriennan, "On the Stolarz-Bennett incident, it didn't even seem like that bad of contact." I agree with you. I saw a post earlier from a doctor on Twitter
2:15
that the shot to the side of the head in the first period that took his helmet off was likely what caused the injury. It's probably true. It was probably cumulative.
2:24
And it d- and he stayed on, like I said, he stayed on the ice, but then he vomited, like then it all, like c- came to him, so he had to leave. And so, yeah, it was, it was very weird. Strange incident in that Leafs game.
2:33
Um, Larry Matthews Jr, "Any golfers in current poor form you might be looking to fade this weekend in Philly?" I think that might be directed towards you. Coming up tomorrow.
2:43
[laughs] 'Cause I have not done much with golf yet. [laughs] There it is. There it is.
2:47
Uh, if you missed, uh, b- by the way, if you missed earlier in the show, I just, uh, kind of lost my mind about, uh, about, uh, Mark Daigle. We'll see if Drew has something to say about that.
2:56
But by the way, Shrek McPhee also, "When's the big Roland Garros pod, guests?" Well, we always love it if this gentleman has the time to do it. We're still one tournament shy of Roland Garros.
3:04
It's Drew Dinsick, everybody. Uh, you can follow him on Twitter @whale_capper.
3:09
He is the co-host of the Deep Dive podcast with Andy Malatur, Bet The Edge from NBC Sports with Jay Croucher, and coming off a weekend where he was just decked out at the Derby.
3:18
He joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Drew? You know, uh, it was, uh, such a phenomenal, um, Friday, Saturday at Churchill Downs that inevitably there's a comedown, you know? Mm.
3:31
And then to, to make matters worse, uh, I'm o- I'm obviously at the front of the bandwagon here as Captain Thunder, to see them lose game one, uh, particularly in that fashion, uh, was, uh, was tough.
3:43
So Monday was a tough bounce back Monday, if I'm being honest. To- Uh, and, uh, but then you wake up on Tuesday and Scam Nori loses as a minus 147 favorite, and all is right in the world again, so.
3:55
[laughs] You know, you win some, you lose some. There you go.
3:58
Uh, it, but, uh, but ultimately, like, uh, no, it was, uh, coming off the best weekend of sports that I can remember in, like, the last, I don't, I don't even know how long. Um, but, uh- Well, let me, let me- Yeah...
4:09
let me answer your, your rhetorical question. Let me actually answer, which is, you know, the comedown. You're like, "You know, comedown from the Derby." No, I don't know, Drew, 'cause I've never been to the Derby.
4:17
[laughs] So I don't know what that comedown's like, to be honest with you. Uh, know what lives your life. Yeah.
4:21
Um, so- The, I guess the, uh, yeah, the Der- the Derby itself, just for, just for the FYI, the, um, why it was so special this year, number one, they put together just an unreal undercard leading into the Oaks on Friday.
4:33
Like, all of the biggest stars in horse- in racing were there. They brought them, brought them in. Uh, so you got to see that. I h- ended up hitting the Pick 6 on Friday into the Oaks. Ooh. Um, so it was so- Oh, man...
4:43
that's basically to say, like, you know, every 40 minutes there's another race, and it's just like win or win or winner, and, like, the energy and the excitement is so intense when you're just getting those wins and, and some of the races themselves were extremely close and fun.
4:56
So that was just like, you know, I left Friday thinking like, "Well, never, they'll never get better than that."
5:01
Like, that, [laughs] you know, hitting the Pick 6 into the Oaks, like, you know, that's, that's as, that's as good as it gets.
5:06
And, uh, and then on, uh, on Derby day, had kind of a repeat experience with the Pick 6 into the Derby and, uh, ended up getting four in a row and then lost five by a nose, and then had Sovereignty in the six.
5:18
So it would've been, that would've been, uh, kind of like ho- holy smokes. Oh, my goodness. Two for two, 20, 20 cent Pick 6 Derby, uh, you know, Derby City Pick 6, and ah.
5:28
Uh, anyway, it's just- So- When, you know, when, when, yeah, when you're in that kind of environment, 100,000, 150,000 people, and, uh, everybody's screaming, it's, it's just, it's, it's unbelievable.
5:37
So between Samich getting the superfecta, Felika with the seven to one, and Drew having a great day- Yes... what a horse racing trifecta we had. Yeah, it was incredible. Um, okay.
5:46
Let's, let's get this- I lost money, but- I, I lost money... 'cause I've been doing this. [laughs] I lost money 'cause I went with American Paradise or whatever the hell the name of that horse was. Yeah, American, yeah.
5:54
Yeah. American Promise we should say that. Sure, Promise. Uh, mm-hmm.
5:57
Yeah, that, that would've been the, um, that would've been- Like kind of the coolest thing that had ever happened just because that was the, like, I, I was on him in the futures pool at 30 to 1.
6:07
And so that would, that-- and futures pool for like max stakes multi-clicks. Like, that, that would've been, um, you know, life altering for me in the year twenty twenty-five [laughs] as far as, uh, outcomes go.
6:19
Um, but, uh, you know, it, it, at, you-- I woke up on Saturday. It's raining. It is raining hard. You look at the, uh, forecast.
6:25
It's gonna rain all day, and you're like, "Okay, so we're gonna have an off track that's gonna absolutely open the door for a lot of horses to push this pace. We're gonna get a fast pace, American Promise."
6:35
And so I'm, I'm doing the math in my head. I'm like, "All right, he's cooked." Like, this just isn't happening today. Not, not my day.
6:40
Um, so ultimately was able to find a way to, uh, to get right otherwise, but, uh, did not hit the lotto. W-w-- uh, Drew, what's the atmosphere like there, uh, when it is raining for, for one of the Derbies?
6:51
Is it, uh, uh, is it much different or not really? Doesn't change at all. Uh, the, uh, there's-- obviously, there's a little bit, um, there, there are more plastic bags on people [laughs] Yeah...
7:03
and on hats, um, but that's the only difference. Uh, you looked around the infield, and it had been raining all day long, and it was still shoulder to shoulder.
7:11
Um, they had-- you know, there was a lot of speculation that there was gonna be a comedown in terms of attendance, in terms of handle this year because last year was one fifty, you know?
7:20
And it was like, is this was one fifty-one? Like, did people like kinda save up their, their bullets and fire last year, and then this year it's gonna be a little bit of a letdown? And no. The handle went up by a lot.
7:30
[laughs] And it's like, oh. So this is just, it's just growing and rolling downhill now. And, uh, a hundred fifty thousand people there in the pouring rain all day. It was absolutely wild.
7:39
Does NBC also have the Preakness? Do you go to Pimlico? I'm not going to Pimlico. You are not. I think they do have the Preakness. Yeah. Fox stole the freaking Belmont from us, but, uh- [laughs]...
7:47
NBC will have the, the Preakness Felika, Felika's listening going, "Damn right we did."
7:50
[laughs] [laughs] Um, yeah, because I was gonna say the, the contrast between the Derby to the infield grounds at Pimlico is a whole different story. It's not very Denzickish if you know what I mean.
8:01
Um- Y- the first horse race I ever went to was the, uh, the Preakness at Pimlico, and it was very Denzickish when I was an eighteen-year-old. Yeah. Wait, I was gonna say, are you implying he's too bougie for that now?
8:10
[laughs] I'm im- I'm implying that Drew has evolved as a human. He's not funneling beers anymore? [laughs] He has evolved. Um, speaking of your evolution, do you have any-- uh, to, to tennis.
8:21
Let's get the tennis out of the way before we go to basketball. Oh, sure. Do you have anything left in Roma today?
8:26
Uh, nothing qualifying, but let's kinda talk a little bit about where we are in the calendar since it's a good reset point. Uh, Madrid is in the books.
8:33
That is kind of your first measuring stick for how these players are coming along on clay. Uh, Rome starts in earnest tomorrow.
8:42
Um, and we find ourselves in a very, very wide open, you know, both men's and women's, um, you know, s- landscape right now.
8:51
Um, you know, this time last year we're like, you know, click it and forget it with Iga in every clay tournament she's in. Like, don't overthink it.
8:59
Um, that has completely faded into obscurity as far as a strategy for betting money, I'll tell you that much. Um, her kind of c-- her current sort of mental, um, you know, just the
9:13
damage she's taken from everything that's going on in her life on top of just, you know, having h-- you know, a struggling s-suite of results, uh, to me makes her a bet against that price in Rome.
9:24
Uh, the women's, uh, draw as I look at it is massively lopsided. All of, like, the interesting high-powered, you know, power hitters are all on the top half of the draw outside of Madison Keys who's in Iga's quarter.
9:37
Um, Sabalenka, Rybakina, Zhang all in Q1. That sets up for a, a, a f- a f- quarter one quarterfinal that's gonna be just flat out awesome.
9:46
Gauff, Anna Semos- Samova, and Andreeva all in Q2, uh, is gonna set up for just an awesome first, their top half semifinal.
9:55
Um, don't have an opinion of between all of those women as to who ultimately comes through, but the fact that they're all on the top makes me wanna shop for price in the bottom, and particularly in Q3.
10:04
The name that stands out above the rest in Q3 is Muchova.
10:07
I know she hasn't really put together much to be excited about on clay or really at all in twenty twenty-five so far, but, uh, she got a super nice soft section where she, uh, you know, she draws, uh, potentially Ostapenko in round three, Paolini in round four, and Pegula in, in the, uh, in the, uh, Q3 quarterfinal.
10:27
I think that's very winnable path for her, and then she- A former French Open finalist... uh, gets the better of Keys and Iga. Yeah. For- former French Open finalist. Yeah, exactly. Yes. It should be mentioned.
10:34
Yeah, go ahead. I'm sorry. E- exactly. Absolutely. And, uh, she's, like, in the eighteen to one range to win this title, and Muchova is the pick to click for me in Rome this week among the women.
10:44
Uh, and then the men's, we welcome Jannik Sinner back to tour. He looks different. He looks like he's grown up a little bit, I have to say. Uh, and- Physically, you mean? Physically? Physically. Oh. Yes.
10:57
Like, he- I haven't seen him... like, he just, he, he look like-- he doesn't look the same to me. Um, a lot of the kind of the boyish nature of his face and just his, his stature is, uh, is kind of, um, refined.
11:08
I think, I think he's probably, uh, in an even better state than he was, uh, at the beginning of the season where he was questioning whether he even wanted to play in the Australian Open with the doping case hanging over his head.
11:19
Now that it's behind him, I think he's probably gonna run amok, uh, through this next portion of the calendar, and he-- it would be an easy click for me in, uh, on the men's side in Rome.
11:29
You had Draper in Madrid, right, to win it, didn't you? [sighs] I did. Sorry. Sorry for the- Casper Ruud. Casper Ruud. Absolute thievery. Thievery in the first set of that match.
11:40
Draper, I know it's, it's tough when you're young and you don't have as many pelts- Yeah... on the wall, but, uh, you gotta, you gotta close that first set and win that match, buddy. NBA with Drew on the other side.
11:50
Numbers game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:52
[upbeat music]Betting Network Smarter bets start here and last all year long with VSiN Pro.
12:10
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12:20
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12:37
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12:48
Slashed. Head to VSiN.com/subscribe now. Use promo code PRO to lock in 14 months of VSiN Pro for just $199. That's VSiN.com/subscribe. Slashed. [laughs] I think you guys get the idea. Um- That's so nice of you to...
13:05
I, I heard Gil was taking all this money out of his paycheck to, uh, pay for everybody's two months free. It's very nice of you. De- Slashed. Yo, but you know what I am doing?
13:13
I said if I win this VSiN, uh, Killer Sports NBA challenge that I, that I'm giving all the money to the guys behind- I'm plotting... the guys and girls behind the glass. Oh, you are? Oh, yeah, yeah. Wow. If I win.
13:22
I missed that announcement. Okay. Fezzik is in first place now. Steve Fezzik luck boxed his way into a two and one because the Knicks-Celts went to overtime yesterday. So he is 15 and 8. I think I've lost four straight.
13:34
I'm out of the top three, right? You are out of the top three. Fezzik is, uh, first place, 15 and 8. Kazarian is at 14 and 7 in second place. Zach Cohen is your new third place, sir. All right.
13:44
Bronze medalist, currently 13 and 9. A lot of basketball yet to be played. He's a decent guy. He, he can take my spot. He's a good guy. Um, but yeah, those are the top three right now.
13:54
You are c- you, sir, are in a tie for fourth at 12 and 9 with Alex Christiansen. Got work to do. And JVT's got 12 wins, too. He's 12 and 11, so still a lot, a lot of work to do. And, and Fezzik's a little too cocky.
14:05
I'm gonna be honest with you, a little too cocky, this kid, Steve Fezzik. You know what I realized? I'm sure this complaint was gonna come up at some point. Oh.
14:12
But, you know, we have to, like we were talking about this with Carl off the air yesterday. Mm-hmm. We, you know, we have content to do, so we have to talk about our picks. Steve doesn't necessarily have to do that.
14:22
No, that's right. So yeah, we, we could telegraph everything we're gonna do. Yeah. I don't know if that's what's at play, but still. You know, he's, he's got some regression coming to him.
14:32
By the way, the only thing, we'll get back to Drew here in a sec, the only thing that, uh, made up for Barkley's horrible take on the, on the end game in that Thunder-Nuggets game yesterday was that the end of Inside the NBA, they did a spelling bee.
14:44
[laughs] Gosh. Inspired by apparently Shaq and Craig Sager back in the day where Shaq would try to do, you know, he'd like tell Sager to spell words that he didn't understand.
14:52
Be like, "Spell it, smart guy," or something like that. [laughs] Uh, and they gave Shaq, Kenny, and, uh, Charles Barkley, Ernie did, "First word, podiatrist. Podiatrist." And so they had to spell that.
15:03
Then it was plethora and peripheral. So they had to spell podiatrist, plethora, and peripheral. Can you spell those words? Uh, probably. Let's do it on another segment.
15:11
Okay, but, um, I'm just giving you the words now so you can write them down. Don't look, and so we'll see. Oh yeah, good point. Okay. Uh, Shaq went O for three, and he tried cheating off Ernie's paper.
15:20
But Ernie purposely spelled them wrong on the paper 'cause he knew Shaq would cheat. Oh, that's so good. Yeah. Uh, Charles went one and two, and Kenny won it, went two and one. What are they?
15:27
Podiatrist, p- peripheral, and what was the third? Podiatrist, plethora, and peripheral. Oh, plethora. Drew D- I think I'm three for three... Drew Dinsick kind enough to join us once again.
15:35
I didn't go to Duke or anything, but, uh. Yeah, well, who, who amongst us did? [laughs] Oh, Drew did. [laughs] Hey, Drew. Terrible- Well-... terrible speller, though. Oh, really? Terrible speller.
15:44
I think spelling, yeah- Oh, terrible... I think you're kind of born with it. I, I really do. I think it's kind of like a thing in your brain. Um- I think I got all three of those. I'm sure you did.
15:52
You wanna spell them now, or you wanna let, let Drew talk about basketball first? [laughs] Uh, y- let's let Drew talk. Okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Let's Drew think. All right, Drew.
15:58
Uh, you're with, by the way, you, we, we got one tweet, Drew, where somebody said about your, uh, win at the derby. He says, "Had to be the lucky turkey feather for Drew," uh, according to Scola on Twitter.
16:07
Um, okay, Thunder- That's incredible that he picked out that there was a turkey feather there, and, uh, it'll, I'll, I'll speak directly to him. I found that turkey feather myself in Napa- Hey...
16:17
uh, and added it to the hat for the flair. While he was sipping wine in Napa. You, you pointed it out on Friday. [laughs] Oh, I did? Yeah, you did. [laughs] Oh my God. [laughs] All right. Um, Thunder, Celtics, Cavs.
16:34
They all come in as big favorites. They all not only- Yeah... don't cover, they all lose outright. Which is the most concerning of all those favorites? And I think the answer is Cleveland because of the personnel issues.
16:45
But what do you think is the most concerning? Of all three of those, who's, who's got the most to worry about? Yeah, I think it's Cleveland because of the personnel issues.
16:54
[laughs] That's the shortest Drew answer we've ever gotten, by the way. [laughs] My turn now. He's like, "And when it, and when it-" No, I think, uh, no- Yeah...
17:00
the, the real- really, like, yeah, I mean, I, I do still think that these are your three most talented teams.
17:05
At full strength, this is still clearly the, the championships, you know, starts with understanding the probability of those three teams specifically.
17:12
I think the fact that, uh, they all each lost a home game to start their series, um, while it is concerning, uh, it is not really a reflection that they, any of the three are now, uh, unlikely to win their, their series.
17:26
Um, market says the same. Um, my numbers agree. I have between the three of them, um, I have Oklahoma City as still the most likely of the three to come through, uh, with a fair price of minus 244.
17:41
I have Cleveland as the second most likely to come through with a fair price of minus 277, and I have Boston third at minus 200, which I, maybe surprises some people.
17:50
That's just raw numbers as I kind of am crunching here.
17:54
Um, but at this point with kind of questions swirling about availability for both Cavaliers and Celtics, I think you have to be a little bit more qualitative, and I think you have to talk a little bit about path and about opponent, uh, as far as, like, who's, you know, whose opponent can hang/improve as we kind of go through this series.
18:12
And as far as opponents go, the Pacers look the scariest to me. Um, the Knicks to me are the kind of a team that has defensive woes.
18:20
I mean, just the fact that they gave up as many threes to the Celtics as they did is a huge problem. That's eventually gonna bite them in that series.
18:26
And then the Nuggets, um, you know, the fatigue that's set in with that team that will ultimately, I think, affect them in games three and four at home, uh, we could still s- very well see the Thunder come home for game five up 3-1 is, in my opinion.
18:39
So, um, I don't have A fair price on any of these teams versus the market that I bet into that says take a, make a bet on any of them now.
18:49
Um, but, uh, I would say that with the, you know, with the absence of Garland and how important he was, and really not having any read whatsoever on how serious his toe injury is, combined with, uh, now Hunter and Mobley being question marks with injuries they picked up in game one.
19:05
Like, that's three-fifths of your closing lineup.
19:07
That's a huge question mark, huge problem, and the Cavaliers defense slipped throughout the balance of the, uh, you know, final third of the season to the point where the defense was their only key question mark coming into this playoffs.
19:20
Uh, and you thought the offense was gonna be able to offset that.
19:23
And while Mitchell got everything he wanted an- anywhere he wanted it in that game against the Pacers, and he is-- they have no defensive answer for him, um, the Cavaliers defense is, is not what it was, you know, s- expected to be in terms of, um, you know, kind of preventing the Pacers from getting away in these games.
19:40
So, um, yeah, Cavaliers are probably at, uh, for me at least, they're at Defcon 4. Uh, a loss in game two would put them up to Defcon 2.
19:49
Um, and, uh, you know, certainly the issues are all really about the fact that we, uh, we may not know how serious their, their injuries are until, uh, we see them play tonight.
19:58
And then even beyond that, like- How many, how many people just listened to that and went- Yeah... oh, Defcon 1's the worst? How many people listened to that and thought- No, I, I- Yeah.
20:04
[laughs] I was, I'm sitting here actually thinking about it as you said it. Yeah. [laughs] I'm sorry, Drew. Which one's the worst again? One's the worst. Yeah. One.
20:11
Def-- you know what Defcon 1 is, if you want a reference point? It's when you're watching the, uh, the Los Angeles Clippers against the, uh, the Nuggets in game seven. Ugh. And you have a Clippers ticket in your account.
20:20
Drew's not bitter. And then you get to halftime, and you're like, "Oh, I think I should be concerned. I should be concerned." Drew's like, "I think we're at one." That's Defcon 1. I think we're at one.
20:28
I think we're at one. Yeah. [laughs] Like, this is Defcon 1. Uh, before you go, Drew- Or Defcon 4, yeah... not to, not to slow your roll here. We're a long way away. But let's g- let's get to the, the game two.
20:37
So the Cavs are favorite- Sure... game two tonight by nine or nine and a half still. Uh, the total on this game is at 229 and a half, same total as, as in game one. And then Golden State Minnesota, game one tonight.
20:50
The T Wolves are up to a, am I seeing this right, a seven-point favorite now? Mm-hmm. Uh, with the, with the T Wolves, we're showing six and a half, but there's some sevens out there.
20:59
W- on the series price, uh, T Wolves are a minus 175, minus 180-ish favorite. Golden State plus 150-ish coming back.
21:08
Do you have any plays on the individual games tonight or on, and/or on the Warriors-T Wolves series price? Uh, series price is a pass.
21:17
At price, I would, you know, I was hoping we were gonna get something more bettable for Minnesota. Minus 180 is not bettable by my numbers. Um, I did take them game one, um, at six and a half.
21:29
I think ultimately this reasonably is, it's, it's, it's, um, it's, there's a premium here. Um, you know, I'm not, I'm not saying that this is going to open game two at six and a half or seven.
21:41
It's probably realistic neutral fair is probably more like four and a half, five. But, um, there's a two-point premium because of the, uh, the rest imbalance.
21:50
And while that guy probably cooked a lot of people last night, including me, on Oklahoma City- Yeah...
21:56
uh, it, uh, it's, this is more real in my opinion, just because of the degree of physicality that, uh, Houston had against the Warriors and, and really making, um, Steph Curry's life difficult.
22:07
Uh, and you know, Curry is a one-of-one offensive, uh, you know, just generational talent. Um, but he's not a very big guy, and he is carrying an enormous amount of the load.
22:19
And we've seen this in playoffs past with this War- Warriors team, where, you know, you're not giving him much help whatsoever outside of Jimmy Butler, you know, getting to the free throw line.
22:28
And, uh, that to me is concerning that he is gonna be worn down from that, uh, that, uh, Rockets series, and that ultimately the Warriors are drawing dead tonight.
22:38
Now, I may dabble with Warriors series price if it's a blowout, uh, and, uh, considering it's already at 155. Okay. Drew Dinson. Thank you, Drew. Appreciate it very much, man. All right, best of luck guys.
22:50
Horses, tennis, basketball, with Dinson. Coming back with Paul Carr of the Champions League and Kelly Spells Words next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:06
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23:16
Sign up today at edgeboost.bet with promo code A-N-G. A-N-G as in A Numbers Game. Deposit $25, and Edge Boost will match the deposit. That's edgeboost.bet. Let's go to Alexander. We get tweets that made the book.
23:29
Slashed. [laughs] JC at JC562076 says, "Go Dubs. That is all." I'm with you, JC. Go Dubs. Most beautiful thing in basketball. It was well, it was well said by, by Drew. We brought it up yesterday.
23:43
I j- the price just a little off for me. If anything, I'd be on the Warriors too. Warriors trying to make it a full set of four of underdogs that went outright in game ones of the conference semifinals.
23:52
God, and they're, they're, they're the one that we would have said had the best chance too, right? [laughs] Jamie Leyva, slashing weight and prices. Kelly Bidlin. He says, "Excellent Darnest Johnson impersonation, Gil.
24:03
Looking good, gentlemen. Have a fantastic day." Thank you, Jamie. Darnest Johnson. I always love it [laughs] when that was the- That was the prime time action man. Oh, guessing lines, you know, or your prime time action?
24:12
Yeah. Just random Darnest Johnson. Remember when we f- we, we discovered him, and it was like, "Who's this guy? Who's this running back?" And then boom. I always throw in, "From our Atlanta studios."
24:21
Uh, Chance Copperpot, "I can't spell podiatrist, but I know when the Nuggets are down in the fourth quarter, and I take a live flyer at 13 to 1 with 50 bucks. I'm winning 650. #cantspell," he says. Nice.
24:31
Well, actually, you spelled podiatrist right. Ladies and gentlemen, the last night on Inside the NBA. Paul Carr standing by for Champions League picks.
24:37
So, um- I'm also nervous now 'cause he's a regional spelling bee champion, apparently. Paul Carr is? Yeah. Regional spelling- I might have just made that up, but Let's, let's bring Paul in.
24:44
Paul Carr, ladies and gentlemen, from Topeka, Kansas. Uh, True Media Networks is where he does his thing on a daily basis, the Expected Value podcast, and of course, the Ringers Soccer Betting Show.
24:53
Joins us now @PaulCarr, by the way, on Twitter, C-A-R-R, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Paul, were you a regional spelling bee champion? Is that true? Uh, fourth place regional- Fourth-... as far as I got...
25:03
fourth place regional? Kelly, come on. Fourth place. Get a trophy for that? Topped out right there. By the- I did not... you should- Didn't even get a ribbon. Had to get third for a ribbon.
25:11
You should've just said second place. We would not have known the difference. [laughs] That's true.
25:15
Uh, so last, last night on Inside the NBA after Barkley was just embarrassing about the, the Dagnall end of game coaching. "Oh, all Chet had to do was make the two free throws, we'd have been fine."
25:25
Um, they did a spelling bee and they gave three words, podiatrist, plethora, and peripheral.
25:32
And Shaq went O for three even though he tried to, uh, to cheat off of Ernie's page, but Ernie knew it was happening so he wrote, he wrote them incorrectly. He misspelled them on purpose.
25:40
I, I believe Shaq does that often. Yeah. They even caught him, like, looking over. Uh, Charles went one for two, and Kenny wanted, uh, going f- two for three. He went two and one.
25:48
So Kelly now, uh, you get it, and, yeah, the first word was podiatrist. Kelly spelt it P-E-D-I-A-T- Uh-huh... R-I-S-T. P-O? P-O-D. Ugh, man. Oh my God. Sorry, Florida State University. FSU.
26:06
How'd I do on the other two? Plethora, plethora I got right. You were correct on the others. Plethora, P-L-E-T-H-O-R-A, and peripheral, which was the hardest one, P-E-R-I-P-H-E-R-A-L. Way to go. Two for three.
26:17
There you go. You and Kenny- There you go, Kelly... you and Kenny Smith would have a, a, a word off. I mean, I'm an English major who worked at a newspaper. It's a little concerning I can't spell podiatrist.
26:25
[laughs] It's, it's more than a little concerning. [laughs] It's a lot concerning. Uh, Paul, how you doing, man? Uh, let, let- Hi... before, before we get to... [laughs] Hi.
26:32
Before we get to your, uh, Champions League plays, uh, for today and explain the second leg and all that, uh, let's go back to some stuff you had.
26:39
You had s- you had, uh, a goal scorer at plus 250 that took four minutes to cash, right, the other day? It was very nice. Ousmane Dembele for PSG.
26:47
Four, fourth minute goal through traffic and rest easy the rest of the game. That's, uh, that's about as easy as it gets. And Barcelona, Inter Milan, three to three, was that the final score in that game?
26:56
That was a classic, huh? It was. It was a wild one. I had Barcelona minus a goal and a half, and they were down two-nil, and I honestly didn't feel terrible about it given that, uh, yeah, they tied it up.
27:08
Inter took the lead. Barcelona tied it up again with about 25 minutes left I think. Ugh. So it was, it was still very much in play. Yeah. But they, they had a couple chances they didn't finish.
27:16
And, yeah, I don't think either team's really happy with a three-three result going back to Milan. That's interesting, and we'll, we'll, that's a portent of things to come here as Paul gives his pick.
27:24
So, so explain now, this is the second leg of the semifinals. And for the uninitiated, explain, if you would, why this becomes a little bit, uh, multilayered. Yep. Yep.
27:35
Two legs, aggregate scored, which is a fancy way of saying total score across the two legs is what gets you through.
27:42
So the thing to be wary of from a betting standpoint, as I always say, everyone's made this mistake, I've made this mistake, what
27:49
99% of your bets here are for regulation, so for the 90 minutes and the injury time at the end.
27:55
So if you bet, say, Barcelona to win the game, if it's tied after 90 minutes and they win in extra time, your bet probably won't cash.
28:04
Uh, there are separate markets for to advance or to qualify, which are different things. That's just which team goes to the next round regardless of its regulation, extra time, penalty kicks.
28:13
So as always, just be wary of what you're betting and know what you're betting really from a rooting interest standpoint. Also, thank you for using wary correctly, Kelly.
28:21
Wary, cautious of, as opposed to weary, where people say, uh, "Be weary of." Yes. Be tired of. Sure, yes. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Mm-hmm. English major, Kelly Hyland, everybody. W-A-R-Y. That's right. [laughs] He was not sure.
28:32
[laughs] Was not sure. He was not sure. Never. Uh, okay. So be- let's keep that in mind. Let's go to your picks. So, um, the first pick here from you then, this is going to be which...
28:44
Uh, let's go to Barcelona, Inter Milan now. Yeah. So what are the implications here as we head into this game? Yeah. So I, I am taking a 90-minute bet of Barcelona to win this game. I played this at 125.
28:57
It has shifted the other way. It's plus 150 now a lot of places- Hmm... because there's some injury news that has come out. Uh, Lautaro Martínez, Inter's striker, looks like he's going to play.
29:07
That was a little more doubtful yesterday. Uh, and Barcelona's fullbacks may both be out of this game. Personally, I don't think that...
29:14
I mean, it matters obviously, but I don't think it's a big deal from a handicapping standpoint because the Barcelona defense was pretty suspect anyway, and Inter's attack w- was decent against that.
29:24
So it's something, don't get me wrong, but really this is about Barcelona's attack, which is the best in the world. I don't think the Inter defense can hold up for 90 minutes.
29:32
Uh, it wasn't really able to last game, gave up three goals obviously. They did okay. You know, Barcelona didn't have tons of great opportunities, but they had a lot of them. They had 19 shots.
29:40
And even though a lot of them weren't great, when you give good players, like Barcelona has, an attack, 19 shots, uh, you know, they're likely to, to break through one way or the other.
29:48
Uh, Barcelona may have Robert Lewandowski back for this game, so I don't think he will start, but he's a guy they could throw on the last 20 minutes when they're trying to get a win in regulation.
29:57
So I like Barcelona to win this one in regulation. Again, I played it at plus 125, but you should be able to get plus 150-ish right now. So this was the three to three match in the, in the first leg. Yeah.
30:07
Now Paul is on Barcelona plus 125, and it's not that the market has scoffed at you, it's that there's injuries. That's why it's moved. I think so. Yeah. Okay.
30:14
'Cause I'm, I had, had that play last night and the injury news came out this morning, uh, in Europe, so I think that's it. 'Cause Martínez likely wasn't going to play.
30:22
The fullbacks were, I don't think their injury situation was quite a, I think it was more severe than expected. So yeah, I think that's what made the numbers change this morning. All right.
30:31
Ta- I'm tailing you again on this one, Paul. This is like, this is like- All right... an anger bet against Inter Milan. [laughs] Kelly, if you'd watched that game last week, like- Spite bet...
30:38
i- it's the most inc- it's like when we, we talk about the three-point, uh, differentials, right? Like, when you get- Yeah... like three ridiculous, incredible goals that, like, you could never recreate. Right.
30:48
I, yeah, I'm gonna, I'll be right, I'll be right back on Barcelona. Yeah, it's, it's another good point. Like, everything went right for Inter in that game and all they got was a draw.
30:54
You know, they got a early goal on a counterattack with a great finish, you know, tough to replicate.
30:59
They scored twice on set pieces, and while those are also Barcelona's defensive weaknesses, set pieces and transition, they're just tough things that- You're gonna be able to count on.
31:08
So, you know, Barcelona puts up a couple here, two maybe three. I'm not sure Inter can get two, maybe three goals themselves. Spite bets always work out, Kelly. You should be fine. Oh, 100%. Yeah, what could go wrong?
31:17
Yep. Yeah, you should be good. Yeah. Uh, PSG-Arsenal, first, uh, leg, if I'm not mistaken, PSG won one-nil, yes, in London? Correct. All right. Correct, yes. So how are we doing this one? So I'm going under in this one.
31:29
Under two and a half plus 125. Uh, this was, you know, it was kind of a tight, cagey, your stereotypical first leg. I'm not sure the second leg will be much different because Arsenal needs to score, obviously.
31:40
They're down a goal. Arsenal hasn't been very good at scoring all season, and they have Bukayo Saka back and Odegaard's back in the midfield, so a little bit better, but PSG defended them fairly well.
31:50
Didn't give up a ton of opportunities.
31:52
I mean, Arsenal had one shot in the first half hour or so before they kind of got alive, but PSG really just clogged the middle well and Arsenal wasn't able to generate a lot, and I'm not sure this game will be a lot different.
32:02
Uh, they, they might scratch out a goal. You know, it could've been one-nil Arsenal in that first leg without too much trouble. But either way, you know, one-nil either way obviously gets us home. A couple of goals.
32:12
Uh, so this was, this is another one where it could go to extra time.
32:15
If Arsenal wins one-nil and goes to extra time, you're winning your bet regardless as if, of if, uh, you know, a team sank two, three goals in extra time. So under two and a half plus 125.
32:24
Uh, if you wanna get really crazy, go under one and a half at like plus 350. But under two and a half, 125 my play. And these are both today, Paul? Uh, the Arsenal-PSG game is tomorrow. Arsenal-PSG tomorrow, right.
32:36
So Barcelona-Inter Milan today. Yeah, one game at a time for the semis. What's that? I'm sorry. Say again. One game at a time for the semis. That's right. Let us watch them both.
32:42
One game tonight, uh, today Barcelona-Inter Milan, PSG-Arsenal tomorrow. Uh, are you following the NHL or the NBA playoffs at all, Paul? Do you follow that at all? Uh, very casually.
32:50
I st- I don't think I'd watched an NBA ga- NBA game all season until the playoffs. But yeah, now it's gonna throw it on to see what happened.
32:57
And, uh, yeah, so last night I had, I left, stopped watching the Celtics game when they were up like, what, 20 in the third quarter? Yeah.
33:04
And I came back with like a minute left and was very confused about what was going on. [laughs] I thought the score bug was messed up, that kind of thing. The Celtics were very confused- But, uh, no...
33:11
about what was going on as well. Yeah. They just kept heaving balls from behind the arc. A- and there has been score bug issues. And it was just... Yes. So, yeah. Yeah. Fair question.
33:18
May- maybe, uh, shoot the ball closer to the basket. I don't know. I, [laughs] that'd be, it's very, very- What do I know? [laughs]... intricate advice.
33:25
Um, I'm just saying, like anybody, uh, anybody who doesn't like sports, like imagine not liking sports. The drama of the NBA playoffs and the NHL playoffs- Yeah... has, it's just been incredible.
33:34
Um, I don't, I don't know. I don't trust a, I don't trust a, a guy who doesn't like sports or music. Like, what have you, what have you been doing with your life? Yeah.
33:42
I don't watch a lot of regular season of either, but I show up for the playoffs 'cause that's when it gets fun. That is acceptable. Barcelona plus 146. I'm in. He's in. Let's go. Let's go. Spike bet. Thank you, Paul.
33:52
Appreciate it. We'll come back, we'll recap everything next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:10
Get the G-Bank Visa Signature card today because G-Bank is the official bank of VSiN. With all of our best bets recapped, Kelly, shall we do it? Let's do it. Here we go. Look at you firing today, man.
34:20
Uh, this is probably my most, um- Def-... firing of a non-tennis nature on any given day. I, I was gonna say outside of football season, but yeah, good point. Yeah, maybe then.
34:29
Uh, Padres again tonight, uh, moneyline for the full game and the first five moneyline against the Yankees. Minus 105 on the full game, minus 119.
34:38
Michael King on the hill for the Fathers as the, uh, Padres look to go 5 and 0 in the month of May. If they win this, they are already ahead of my projection, and I got them winning the month. Nice. So. There you go.
34:52
Uh, so there, so Padres first five and full game. Mariners-Athletics, I did this yesterday too, over first five and full game. Uh, once again, the, uh, the pitching matchup in that one, Emerson Hancock.
35:04
Who could forget Emerson Hancock? What's your favorite Emerson Hancock outing, Kelly? Oh, man. Yeah. Uh, couple weeks ago. Sure. Yeah. Yeah. Uh, versus Jeffrey Springs.
35:12
They're both fly ball pitchers, and I don't even know, I don't know if you know this, Sactown, that ballpark with the, uh, fake Machu Picchu out there in the outfield and the fake bridge-looking thing, um, that is Sutter Health Ballpark.
35:24
That is a, it is just an absolute fly ball pitcher's nightmare, and so we're going over again, five and a half, first five, over nine and a half for the full game.
35:32
And then in basketball, in the National Basketball Association, I'm taking the Pacers plus the points tonight against the Cavs, who, again, is Darius Garland playing? Nobody knows. Is Evan Mobley playing? Nobody knows.
35:44
Is Deandre Hunter playing? Nobody knows. They're all questionable. Did get a, uh, note come down about 10 minutes ago. Mobley, Garland, Hunter, all not seen at shoot around. Oh, boy. [laughs] Pacers plus nine.
35:57
And that number has adjusted. We're down to eight. Already one point- Yeah...
36:01
less than when we began this show, and I'm on the Pacers plus 191 on the series price, the adjusted series price, up one to nothing in that series.
36:07
I also did take the Nuggets up one-nothing in that series against the Thunder at plus 267. Did not take the Knicks because I just think Tibbs is just the, the two guys logged too many minutes, man. Yeah.
36:20
Too many minutes. And they'll, like, I mean, the Celtics had to screw up last night. The Knicks will blow a game too. Like we, we know that. A game as well. I'm not gonna say necessarily game two, but a game as well.
36:30
Uh, I, I'm in on, I'm backing on the Celtics. Look, it is the numbers game that they like to play. Put up a bunch of threes.
36:35
Um, you're gonna have some nights like you did last night where, uh, you [laughs] well, I guess, I guess you set NBA records missing as many as you did. [laughs] 45 missed threes. It's incredible, man. 15 of 60.
36:46
It's incredible. You, you hope when you see a performance like that, though, they tr- they, they learn at least a little bit, Gil. I don't know that they will. But anyways, nine and a half, wanted to get in on that.
36:55
I knew it would run out a little here a little bit. We're at 10 and a half now. Paul Carr's best bets, by the way, that you just heard, Barcelona, Barcelona, if you pronounce it in Castiliano.
37:03
Barcelona win, plus 125 at Inter Milan. You can get it at plus 150, he said, because some injuries have altered this line.
37:09
And then the PSG-Arsenal game tomorrow in the Champions League semifinals, second leg, under two and a half goals. PSG and Arsenal at, uh, plus 125, under two and a half goals.
37:19
G-Bank, the official bank of VSiN- I got a couple more Oh, we do? Oh, I'm sorry. Mark Borchardt, we did him out of order. Yeah. That's... Oh, my bad. Mark Borchardt, I'm a robot, I just do it chronologically.
37:28
[laughs] Mark Borchardt, best bets, Phillies Braves Moneyline parlay +171 his parlay of the day, and then [clears throat]
37:36
you are not required to watch these, but Mark Borchardt has gone run line plus one and a half runs on both the White Sox and the Rockies today. Oh, boy, that is living.
37:47
Uh, and then finally from- We got Dincic and Jake Haab, yeah... Dincic and Jake Haab.
37:51
Drew Dincic, he's on Karolína Muchová 18 to 1 to win the, uh, WTA side of things in Rome, the final tournament before the French Open at Roland Garros. You know they officially call it Roland Garros now.
38:04
It's not the French Open. We call it the French Open. Really? Yeah, it's ridiculous. Actually, you know what? I think I saw something like that the other day and I was confused.
38:10
I think Charles might have mentioned it on Inside the NBA, and Timberwolves, uh, Drew is laying the points. Drew is unabated in terms of his love for all the favorites, plus on the series price as well.
38:20
He's on the T-Wolves tonight minus the six and a half against the Dubs show of Steph Curry, Draymond, and company. Jake Haab, best bets, Caps tonight, game one, Caps +120. Let's go, rock the red, baby, in DC.
38:35
Oilers-Golden Knights over six and a half here at T-Mobile. Wow.
38:40
I mean, we were talking with Wes yesterday about how you can't bet these overs in game sevens, but man, six and a half on this game, and everybody expects it to go over tonight here between the Oilers and the, and the Knights.
38:48
You know, we, we talked to, we talked to Jake about this during the regular season.
38:52
Man, I would still feel this way when I see some of these, uh, s- some of these final scores of just like, if I was betting it over, I'd be sprinkling some alts, too.
38:59
Like how, I feel like how often do we see [laughs] nine, nine goal games, 10 goal games, 11 goal games is wild. Ho- the, the p- the Stanley Cup playoffs has been unbelievable.
39:10
Uh, that was the, I mean, that was the first great night of the NBA. Not the first great night, but the really best night so far, but hockey's just left and right these games have been incredible.
39:18
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39:27
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39:48
Uh, Stormy and JBT coming up at the top of the hour with money moves. I'm sure JBT will have a lot to say about the NBA playoffs. Stormy doing double duty. She's doing the Knights game tonight as well.
39:56
Oh, she back on that? Oh, yeah. Stormy, Stormy is big time, man. I, I, I screwed up the other day when I saw, I saw her on, uh, doing the Knights game. I was like, "Oh, that's cool. She's right down the road doing it."
40:06
I didn't realize it was in Minnesota. [laughs] In Minnesota. She's gonna do it. Um, so I'm curious what JBT's gonna have to say about these games, but, uh, we started the show, in case you missed it.
40:14
Um, I just, I cannot believe what we witnessed at the end of that Thunder game last night.
40:19
Y- you mentioned something interesting, uh, off air, which is, you know, all these, the, the national shows like, like ESPN, leading with the Knicks and the Celtics as, like, the bigger story.
40:28
I'm like, "Well, it's such an East Coast bias." Like, yeah, that was amazing, too. Don't get me wrong. The Knicks winning game one against the Celtics, uh, erasing the 20-point deficit was amazing.
40:36
But the malpractice at the end of the Thunder game, where again, the problem was not that they fouled up three, which so many articles a- and so many people are saying this morning. That's not the problem.
40:48
The problem is how they did it, and once again, uh, Jokic immediately fouled with a Thunder up three. Jokic immediately, so, so they go up three on two SGA free throws with 14 seconds left. Jokic fouled with 12.9 left.
41:02
He hits two free throws. SGA, uh, then breaks free to the hoop. They're back up three. Then Gordon fouled with 10.7 left. That's not how you do it.
41:10
Once again, he hits both free throws, then Holmgren in- inevitably misses not just one, but two. Gordon three, good. Ballgame. Desperation no good. Nuggets steal it, um, after being down by, what was it?
41:24
Uh, 113-102 with 4:31 left. Geez. Then a 12 to two run cut it to 115-114, and that's when we had those late game shenanigans. But again, it's not that they fouled up three, it's how they did it.
41:35
They did not let enough time elapse, and as a result, what you're doing is creating too many more opportunities for yourself to miss a free throw.
41:46
Because as, the longer the game goes, right, you have to extend it three or four seconds on each of those, and then even if you do miss, Denver's got a desperation heave to try to do something about it.
41:55
But the fact that they just, no time elapsed. I mean, a couple seconds elapsed. So it allowed for, hey, the more free throws you shoot, eventually you're gonna miss one.
42:03
Holmgren happened to miss two, and it allowed Denver to matriculate the ball down the court and get that three from Gordon and Wedge. Just an unbelievable occurrence. I'm stunned. I'm still, I'm still stunned.
42:14
I, I, I know it's been this long after the game. I'm still in shock. You, you can't go to sleep afterwards, as you were saying. No, you can't. I, this is my problem every time the NBA playoffs roll around.
42:21
You get, you get great finishes like that, you're so full of adrenaline after the game, and then before you know it, you're like, "Oh, great, I gotta be up in, like, four hours. Let me, uh, try to get some sleep here."
42:29
Um, this is not a, this is not a pleasant subject. I don't mean to put you on the spot, but, like, who, you mentioned Aaron Gordon earlier.
42:36
What's been, is it the Nuggets that are your big, th- they're the ones that are killing you the most here between the Clippers and the, uh- Uh, so far, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, so far, yeah. Right.
42:45
I, I mean, and that's, you know, it's no, [laughs] you know me. It's not like I'm a Nuggets hater. No.
42:48
And I think it's just been a bit high on Clippers and Thunder, and it's, uh, yeah, it's a t- t- it's a sweat all of a sudden. I mean, I got a lot of Thunder to win the West. A lot of Thunder to win the West.
42:57
Same question I posed to Drew I pose to you.
43:00
I think the answer is probably Indiana because of all the uncertainties with Cleveland's injuries, so it's an easy answer to which of the big, you know, which of the, the, the favored teams pre-flop and current in these series is the most vulnerable.
43:12
So I think the easy answer is Cleveland. But if I had to say who's the second most vulnerable- Sure. I think, I think it's, it's, I think it's easy and it's OKC...
43:20
it's not the T-Wolves who haven't even taken the court yet against the Warriors? Oh, yeah, okay, okay, sorry. If we're including them. Yeah. I thought we were talking about the teams that have already lost.
43:26
But yeah, it's, uh, yeah, I'll say T- I'll say, man, it's a great question. I'll say Timberwolves, but yeah, it's, it's Thunder before it's Celtics for me. Thunder before Celtics.
43:40
I mean, getting out- Which, which is a bit of a- Yes... a culture shock for you. Yeah, for me, I mean, yesterday when we were- Yes... talking about this, I, I was, look, I was gonna give the Knicks a game or two.
43:49
I, Celtics, like we saw last night, I, like, that's not that huge of a shock to me. That the Celtics messed around and took too many threes- 'Cause it's happened before... and got done. We've seen it before.
43:58
We've seen it before. And we've seen over the course of a seven-game series, guess what? Their way still works. So I think that's what's gonna happen.
44:04
But when the Thunder bring in Isaiah Hartenstein and try to redesign this whole front court to specifically handle problems like Nikola Jokic, and he goes for 40 and 20 on you, and you get out-rebounded by 20, that's a concern.
44:17
That, that is a concern for going forward. I love that Hartenstein shot where he doesn't actually shoot the ball. The ball just kind of goes up with him as he jumps. Yeah.
44:25
Uh, I think another one to watch out with that is Chet I think could be in foul trouble this whole series. I think I'll be looking at Chet unders. Drama, man. It only continues, the soap opera that is the NBA playoffs.
44:36
Money moves, top of the hour. Stormy Bonatony and the equally lovely JBT coming up. Enjoy. From VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
