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May 7, 2024
A Numbers Game | May 7, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | May 7, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VN. It is a numbers game here on a Tuesday. Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander.
0:14
Kelly Bidlin to my right. A new friend over behind us over here, watching his backpack for him as he heads about this, uh, the D around here in Las Vegas.
0:22
Drew Dintzer gonna join us a little bit later in the program, as is Paul Carr, as is Paul Sporer. So we have a great lineup for you guys today. But Kelly, we gotta get into the NBA from last night.
0:33
We see an excellent, excellent game between the Pacers and the Knicks. The Knicks pull it out 121 to 117 when it was all said and done. Another Herculean performance from Brunson, a no-show by Halliburton.
0:47
And we go into a game in which the Pacers were leading for a good portion of the game. The Knicks down the line were able to close it out. I look at this as...
0:57
I know that there was a lot of people who look at this and say like, "Man, this, this Pacers team, they blew it, they blew it, they blew it."
1:03
I don't necessarily really look at it that way as much as I do that the Knicks are a very, very good team that kept it close enough to where in the NBA is the, let me say it, a game of runs.
1:15
You know, it's a NBA, it's a game of runs. They go on a run, they do what they need to do, and then close it out. They win the fourth quarter, 39 to 30.
1:23
And by winning the fourth quarter 39 to 30, they end up with a four-point win. Yeah, it was, uh... Yeah, I'm, I'm with you. I don't think it was...
1:30
I, I mean, for the Pacers, there's definitely some good things to take away from that game.
1:33
I mean, if you're, if you're anybody like me who was holding, you know, heavy Knicks series tickets, those were a sweaty last few minutes, that's for sure.
1:40
I, I, you knew the Pacers were gonna have the advanta- There was few places they had an advantage in this series, in my opinion, but the bench was one of them. And the bench kind of kept them in this game throughout.
1:51
TJ McConnell, huge night, 18 points, 9 for 16. I was shocked he was able to do in last night what he was able to do in that first... I didn't think that TJ McConnell was gonna be able to do that again in this series.
2:02
And, and listen, I understand small sample size, that's one game. But in 22 minutes, like you said, he was a factor in this thing. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. [laughs] I mean, so much so to a point where, like, it's...
2:11
Y- y- you felt like there needed to be ski- like, adjustments for TJ McConnell [laughs] Yeah... which is, you know, something, just something to be said. But, um, I mean, end of day, great.
2:20
I mean, you're talking about solid th- three point shooting from the Knicks. I mean, Jalen Brunson, how much more can you say? I mean, this guy just continues to put this team on his back offensively, getting it done.
2:30
Brunson, Hart, DiVincenzo, those three having huge games again.
2:34
Um, and yeah, i- you know, they closed it out and, you know, did make their shots when they needed to down the stretch and, you know, some questionable officiating thrown in there. Yeah.
2:41
Well, st- to, to put a, further emphasize here on Brunson, Hart and DiVincenzo, Ian Begley is a beat writer for the Knicks.
2:50
He put this out that Brunson, Hart, and DiVincenzo scored or assisted on 109 of the Knicks' 121 points in the game one win. Brunson of course, went for 43 on 26 shots.
3:05
M- that joins Michael Jordan, Jerry West, and Bernard King as the only players to score 40 plus in four straight playoff games. Hart had 13, 8 with three steals in this one as well, Kelly.
3:18
So again, a massive, massive production from those three guys where they scored or assisted on [laughs] 109 of the 121 scored by the Knicks. Yeah, yeah. They're huge. Uh, and this is...
3:30
I mean, I think it's the, one of the big questions with the Knicks going forward, right? Is, is this sustainable?
3:34
'Cause I think w- these guys have been playing like this for the bulk of the playoffs so far, and when they do, this team looks very, very dangerous to, to anybody. Yeah. I don't care who they're playing.
3:44
Um, but, you know, can the three of those guys keep up that level of play is gonna be a big time question. Um, and yeah, I think as far as last night, I was...
3:52
I, I mean, I, we haven't really talked to you about, much about this series. I was loaded up on kn- some Knicks series bets. But game one was, I was scared of.
3:59
I, I was scared because of coming off of that series against the 76ers, it felt like the opportunity for Indiana to possibly go in and steal game one and ma- and make this interesting.
4:09
I, you know, they, them coming up short just at the end, I'm, I... It's gonna be interesting to see how this affects the Pacers going forward. Like you said, Halliburton, i- It, it, that's the thing for me, right?
4:19
It's, it's the... I- it was, like, if the Pacers were gonna have any shot in this series, 'cause I was on the... I, I, I think the Knicks are, are a better team.
4:25
I thought that the Knicks were going to win this game, win this series, et cetera. But the, the X factor was, okay, hey, listen, if Halliburton can somehow channel Halliburton from the beginning of the season- Mm-hmm...
4:36
then maybe there's a chance in this Pacers, which by the way, I got like super excited when they traded for Pascal Siakam. I have a Pacers Eastern Conference ticket in the account, which I know is, is- Ooh... dead.
4:47
I mean, it is [laughs] Oh, come on. Like, it's, it's dead. Because this was based off the fact that I was super excited about how, the way Halliburton was playing, you know, at the beginning of the year.
4:56
He gets injured, comes back, does not look the same at all. By the way, only two of six. Shot only six times- Yeah... in this game. Two of six, six points, to go along with three turnovers.
5:06
I- it's, if he no-shows, they have no shot in this series. Well, so a- and it's a trickle down effect, right? Yeah. Because you can... B- when you have a defensive expert like OG Anunoby, right?
5:16
That you can deploy so many different ways, when you know that Tyrese Halliburton's gonna be a non-factor and you can just stick him on Siakam and he really makes the rest of your match-ups a little bit simpler, that's a problem.
5:29
Yeah. Yeah. It just, to me, I was... I, I, I gave the out in the handicap, basically, of the out being if Halliburton can somehow at least...
5:38
Maybe he was not going to be Halliburton from beginning of the season, but maybe Halliburton could figure out a way to be 85% of what he was, 90% of what he was, because he's been about 60% of what he was, and he was not even that last night.
5:52
And, and Kelly, the fact that it was only a four-point victory for the Knicks, as you said, does say something about these role players for the Pacers, but how sustainable is that?
5:59
You have a- 50% shooting night from Siakam- Yeah... you have a 50% shooting night from Turner. You got a above 50% shooting night out of Toppin, Jackson, McConnell, all these guys.
6:08
I mean, it, they played about as well as they could play with the no-show from Halliburton, and it still wasn't good enough. Yeah. Uh, the Turner part's huge- Yeah...
6:14
'cause I, I think he was kind of the X factor for me on the Indiana side coming in. And like he had a, he had a big game. Right. And, and can he... If he can keep doing this, I think he can keep Pacers in it.
6:24
But how, you know, should you expect that? I, I, I don't, I don't know. I think this... I think as, regardless as the series goes on, it... I mean, you, you, you'd love it to be over in four if we're- Yeah...
6:34
if we're both involved in the Knicks. [laughs] Yeah. You'd love it to be over in four, but I think the Knicks, even as we saw last series, the more this goes on, the stronger they're just gonna get, uh, in my opinion.
6:43
So I, I... Uh, it's gonna be interesting to see, but that was... Man, it, I think if you were on the Pacers, you needed that one last night. Yeah, I think that one did slip away from you, certainly on the road.
6:52
You talk about Miles Turner. There was a bit of controversy towards the end of this one.
6:56
Of course, officiating much bigger in the next game that we're going to talk about because there was all kinds of people losing their mind about that one.
7:03
But Miles Turner did have something to say about the end of that game. I just, you know, it just, uh, just in my experience in this league, I think it's best when the players decide the outcome of the game.
7:13
Um, I think it's unfortunate that, you know, it happened. You know, we reviewed it. They still called it a legal, you know, legal screen, but it's the playoffs, man.
7:19
Like, I feel like DiVincenzo did a good job of selling it, and, you know, for the most part, you can't leave the game to be decided by the refs. So we have to take accountability as well.
7:29
So of course, it's right after the game. I'm a little fresh off with my emotions about it. But we know at the end of the day that, you know, we sh- we don't, we can't get to that position.
7:37
So, um, I think the last human report, we're all looking forward to that coming out. Great response in my opinion by him.
7:43
He let it known, he let it be known that he didn't necessarily like the way that it went down, but also said, "Hey, look, you know, we reviewed it. It held up. It is what it is.
7:52
We put ourselves in the situation to have it be like that anyway." There were several leads in which they got... That they had erased throughout the course of the game.
8:00
I don't know what you thought about, uh, by the letter of the law, was a moving screen. Yeah. Do you see that call get called very often in that situation? You don't. Did Di Vin- DiVincenzo sell it amazingly? Yes. Yeah.
8:10
I mean, there's a, there's, I mean, there's all kinds of things going on there. It, it's, it was unfortunate that the timing of it. But again, letter of the law, yes, called correctly.
8:19
You just don't see it called right there. Yeah. That's, uh, I, like y- you just said it. I think you just put it perfectly. Uh, you for, you're gonna hear this a lot today I hear.
8:28
I've heard it a lot today already, but last two-minute report's gonna come out. That's gonna stand as a call. The bigger, the bigger one was the, was the kicked ball that was not a kicked ball. Yeah.
8:36
When, when the, uh, when the- But non-reviewable... Yeah, that is not reviewable. [laughs] And the Pacers were about to force a turnover and go out and transition- Yeah... and get a easy bucket on the other end probably.
8:47
Ends up being a Knicks three, so that's a five-point swing essentially that you get in that game. I mean, again, uh, those of us with Knicks tickets, uh, maybe didn't mind some of these calls so much, but I...
8:57
That one was way more brutal actually than that screen. It's a whole, it's a whole different conversation too. It's like, why can you not review... I mean- Yeah... why can you not review that?
9:04
It's something you should be able to look and say, "Did the person kick the ball- Yeah... or not?" So we go to Timberwolves a- a- and the Nuggets. Wolves get it done big time, 106 to 80. You look at this, Jokic 5 of 13.
9:17
He, 16 points. He did have 16 boards and eight assists, and sometimes that, you know, Jokic doesn't always have to show up on the scoreboard to have a huge effect on a game.
9:25
He did have 16 boards and 18, eight assists, like I said.
9:27
However, Kelly, you have a guy that, it's more s- what stands out to me more than anything is just the efficiency or lack thereof with Jokic so far because this is a guy that shot 58% in the regular season.
9:39
He is now 42% combined in the two games against the Wolves here. And like I said, it's not necessarily so much that he didn't contribute. 16 boards and eight assists.
9:47
We see games all the time with Jokic where he scores about 20 but has a massive rebounding game, massive assist game, but he's also really efficient when he does all that.
9:55
The efficiency is not there for Jokic so far in this. Jamal Murray, three of 18, 0 for four from downtown, eight points for him. You, you...
10:04
That's the box score right there of a losing effort for this team, and not only was it y- losing effort, it was a blowout. Yeah. I, this was stunning to me. Yeah. Uh, th- this was a spot I...
10:12
I was on the Nuggets yesterday.
10:13
Uh, it felt like if you had any, any shred of respect for that team of, of going forward and what their thoughts were this, later this postseason, that was a spot y- I thought you had to play last night.
10:22
Timberwolves, to their credit, no Rudy Gobert. Um, that comes out a little bit later in the afternoon. Uh, he's gonna miss the game due to the birth of his child. Um, he's not even there, and it's no problem. Yeah.
10:33
No problem for the Wolves. I mean, this... A- and, and it's, it says a little bit about both teams, but I mean, the Nuggets' dysfunction is, is evident right now, and it's just lack of players- Yeah... lack of health.
10:44
Jamal Murray's not there. Um, and obviously that, that's the story of the game. That's what me and you were texting about last night. I mean, Murray's not healthy.
10:52
Uh, this Denver Nuggets team- It's obviously frustrating him- I- it's obviously-... that he's not healthy. Yeah... frustrating him. Yeah, yeah. I mean, Malone, uh, Malone losing his cool, Jamal Murray losing his cool.
11:00
Like I, I've never seen... Jamal Murray's not that guy. Yeah. Threw a heat pad onto the court. Before that, had tried to throw another. He threw a towel- [laughs]... that he tried to throw onto the court.
11:10
I didn't see the towel part- Yeah... till this morning. Yeah. That makes this even more damning to me, Matt. Yeah. Like I, like the fact that he, he tried it twice. Yeah. So here's the...
11:19
I know people are gonna debate this, and, and listen, he very well may not get suspended. But I can tell you this.
11:23
If he doesn't, it's special treatment because anybody else does that, if it's not the playoff, whatever, like, they're getting suspended for that. If you're- They're getting suspended for that... if you're...
11:30
I know they're, just, just, it doesn't happen, but if you're gonna suspend guys for coming onto the court, throwing stuff into the crowd, someone throwing something on the court should easily be suspended. Yeah.
11:38
We, we'll continue to talk about this game last night. Where would they go from here? Talking about the Nuggets when we come back here on Numbers Game.
11:45
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12:01
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12:28
VSiN Pro subscription, vsin.com/subscribe, promo code ANG. Matt Brown, Kelly Bidlin in. I am sitting in for Gil Alexander, who I don't know, maybe i- i- is on, is on vacation this week doing who knows what.
12:42
I'm gonna s- you know what I'm gonna say? He's in Antigua. [laughs] That's what I'm going with. I'm just gonna go with Antigua. He, he's over in California. Uh, no, let's say Antigua. It's, it's sexier.
12:50
[laughs] Oh, okay. Sure. Yeah, yeah. It's sexier. He's down, he's down in Antigua doing Gil things in Antigua down there. He can drive it all over the state of California- Yeah... so I'm not really jealous.
12:57
[laughs] Yeah, just doing... You know, he's out over in Antigua doing Antigua things. Putting a bow on that Timberwolves and Nuggets game from last night, Kelly, I mean, it, it, I...
13:04
There are gonna be a lot of people who look at this and say, "Is this thing over?"
13:07
And with it being 2-0, and I gotta say, so I thought that the Wolves were going to be able to give the Nuggets some trouble, considering they have three legit bigs and were gonna be able to put three legit bigs rotating on Jokic, right?
13:19
So the thing that I thought may be a factor in this series was when KAT is on him, he's able to do one of his skillsets, and then you move it over, and then when Naz Reid is on him, you're able to do another skillset.
13:31
And then when Gobert's on him, you're... So I thought that maybe they might be able to not let him settle in, right?
13:36
Because sometimes you see Jokic where, "Okay, they're playing me this way, so tonight I'm the scorer," right? Yeah. Then, and it's like, "Oh, they're playing me this way, so tonight I'm the distributor." Mm-hmm.
13:44
And then whatever.
13:45
Well, now rotating the three different bigs, the three different types of defenses, the three different ways that those guys can play him, I thought that maybe that could confuse or at least neutralize him just a tad.
13:55
You're never gonna shut him completely down. I am shocked at how much they have been able to do that so far through the first couple of games.
14:03
And I will say this, I don't think it's over over, but I think it is going to be a big time, big time task for them to come back from 0-2. Yeah, I'm, uh, I'm kinda beating myself up on this one. This is...
14:14
A- a- and kind of applies to the, to the Mavericks-Thunder series we'll talk about here in a, here in a bit as well. But the, uh... This was one where we're like, I, I liked the Timberwolves in the series.
14:23
I had the price a little bit off, though. And, and I, I, yeah, I thought it was too mu- a little too much the Timberwolves way, so I laid off it. Didn't bet it. Man, they, they are... They're steamrolling. I, I,
14:34
I think you're gonna have to s- I mean, the guys might be likely dealing with a suspension that Jamal Murray. Yeah.
14:41
I think you gotta see a completely different Jamal Murray come ba- come back a- a- and w- if, if that occurs, after that suspension comes, uh, he, he comes back from that suspension, I...
14:50
He's gotta be a next-level player like we've seen him before in the past or else th- this team's done. Timberwolves are too good.
14:55
A- and they just, for, for a team, if you have watched this team all season, like, this is, this is who they've been, like, through the regular season, and they're just getting better and better and better as it goes on.
15:05
And, uh, playoffs are not se- seeming to phase them at all. And for, for all the people I see out there tweeting about Phoenix, uh, and maybe they're not so bad, no, they're still bad. They're still bad.
15:13
You're, you're- Still a complete failure of a season. You're, you're, you're, you're... Yeah, I will not give you that much. Yeah, no, I'm still giving you that, though. Yeah. That, that, that is not gonna happen.
15:20
Uh, we did have hockey happen last night, Kelly. Uh, the Bruins fought- Oh, Matt, real quick. Yeah. I wanna s- I did bet, uh, game three on the, on Minnesota side. Yeah.
15:26
That was j- just to, just kind of assuming Jamal Murray is probably gonna be out. I think I gr- I grabbed it three and a half forts out to four and a half five now.
15:35
I think if you can get in at four, four and a half, there's fours out there. I think you can get in under five. I still like it. I, this, I, Nuggets are on their heels right now. Man, I, this is not looking good.
15:45
Going back to Minnesota, Rudy Gobert is gonna be back. Jamal Murray might be out. Everything I've seen so far, a b- much better team is in Minnesota.
15:51
So, um, yeah, I laid it pretty quickly last night, uh, kind of expecting suspension news coming down the line. Over in the NHL, game one of the second round between the Bruins and the Panthers.
16:01
Bruins get it done on the road five to one. It was a scoreless first period, then a three to one Bruins advantage in the second period.
16:08
They add on two more, one of the empty net variety in the third period, and take that one five to one. Uh, move on, 1-0 in this series.
16:17
Kelly, we spent a whole segment breaking down basketball because I know how to do that, and I can't sit here and tell you... Uh, I can't break down the, uh, the hockey game. All I can tell you, it was five to one.
16:25
I had it on. I watched it. They s- put the, they put it in the net more than the other ones did. Yeah, the worst is, uh, I ha- I had it on a TV early. Yeah.
16:32
A- a- and then I flipped it back on late, and then it was, I was like, "Oh, it's five to one already." What, what are you supposed to do when it's five to one? So... Yeah.
16:37
I mean, listen, I, I can break down basketball, football with you, baseball all day long.
16:41
I'm not gonna sit here and try to tell you the intricacies of what went on on that hockey, on the, on the rink last night and the ice. I, I can't do it. I mean, pretty clearly the Bruins were the better team last night.
16:49
Yeah, there it is. Five to one. And they, they proved it. And there we go. Five to one. Yeah, so [laughs] Panthers, we got, we gotta rise up, right? Yeah. Sunrise, come on. Let's get it together for game two.
16:56
I'm a Panthers fan as of right now. And there- So let's go. Yeah, and there we have it.
16:59
A, a couple of news items we'll get to a little bit later, but don't want to, uh, skip over what we got going on here, uh, tonight, Kelly. We got the Cavs and the Celtics.
17:07
That is Celtics 12-point favorites, 210 the total. If you think the Cavs win this thing outright, plus 470 [laughs] on the money line.
17:15
And then the Mavs-Thunder, that is Thunder three and a half point favorites, 218 if you think the Mavericks win the thing outright, plus 136. Starting with that first game, uh, w- you could make a case, I guess, for...
17:30
I mean, 12 points is a lot of points. It's up to 12 and a half here at Circa. Yeah, I mean, it's like- I, I am a little surprised. Who's coming in today and run- like running to lay 12? Right. I just, I just don't...
17:40
You know, I just don't know, man. I, I just don't know. It, it, that, that's basically gonna be the summary. This whole series throughout, I think, uh, I bet the Ca- uh, Celtics to win at five. Um, I mean, the thing...
17:50
I think they... If I, if I, if I wanna ruffle feathers here, I could make an argument that the Cavaliers have the best player It's just, you know, they're the next five [laughs] Yeah...
17:59
six are on the b- on the Celtic side with no Jarrett Allen. Um, I bet, I bet 'em to win at five. I threw a little bit on that, uh- Yeah... Celtics to win at five.
18:07
I think that, uh, knowing the Celtics and how they usually, usually play- Yeah... uh, and they take a lot of threes, could there be a, a bad variance game where they drop one to the Cavs here at some point?
18:19
Yeah, I think that's completely possible. It's really hard for me to see them lose- The Cavs just aren't a very good team... yeah, it's really hard for me- They're-... me to see them losing more than a game.
18:25
They're just not a very good team. I, I mean, it's, it's, it's one of those things where I, I, I could sit here and we could take the next three minutes doing the what if, play the what if game and woo.
18:34
It's like, no, man, Celtics are gonna win the series. Like, they, they are. They're just gonna win the series. Like, uh, you, you have a Cavs team that is [laughs] going to rely...
18:41
You're gonna need Donovan Mitchell to... You're gonna have to have him go for 40, like, to even have a shot in any of these games. If he goes for 50 every night- [laughs]... how many games do they win? One.
18:50
I, that's [laughs] all I- One... I don't even know. Like, if I- Yeah... I, I'll go two. Yeah. If he went for 50 every night, I'll say they'd get two. All right, all right. So then we at least, we at least have that.
18:58
I mean, well, the, I guess the only thing we can say from a, from a, from a bettable standpoint, if you do look at the prop market, right? Like, Donovan Mitchell is set at 27.5 right now.
19:07
Kelly, he might not get there because he is just off. It is not going to be for lack of trying. He is going to shoot every bit of 25 times in this game, if not more. And so- Uh-... 27.5 seems pretty low to me.
19:21
I am with you. Yeah. I didn't even really check that out- Yeah... 'cause I, uh, i, I mean, I didn't really think about it. Yeah. Just kind of assumed it would be a lot higher. Yeah.
19:29
I- He's gonna play f- unless it is a just absolute blowout- Right... he's gonna play 40 minutes in the game. So you're getting 40 minutes out of him with a guy that's gonna put it up 25 times.
19:40
I mean, he might just be completely off, and i- and if he's off, then there's a way that he couldn't get here, but I, I, I think that he gets there.
19:47
I mean, like, you're going up, you're going up against some of the per- best perimeter defenders in the league on the Celtic side, for sure. Yeah. But what you just said is all that matters.
19:54
Like, the guy's gonna put it up a- Yeah... bajillion times 'cause he's- The, the volume is there... yeah, the volume is gonna be there. [laughs] Yeah, yeah. The volume is there.
20:01
So just some- I think I'm, I'm betting that. Yeah. I'm betting that. Uh, Mavs and Thunder, a much more interesting series in this one.
20:05
As we said, Thunder three-and-a-half point favorites, 218 the total, plus 136 if the Mavs, if you think the Mavs win this thing outright.
20:11
Kelly, I mean, if we look at this, no Max Kleber, and, and I think that people might not really understand what a pretty big loss that is for him, because he's a fairly versatile player for this Mavs team.
20:22
I mean, you can play him at the four. You can, if you wanna go smaller, you can play him at the five.
20:29
He's a guy that kinda, like, adds a little bit of a wrinkle on the offensive side of everything, too, and, a, I mean, he's definitely done for the series. They're gonna reevaluate him in a couple weeks.
20:38
I mean, he's probably done for the whole playoffs with all this for the Mavs team. And I, I'm not saying that that means the Mavericks can't win this series.
20:43
I'm saying that it's a bigger loss for them than I think people are giving credit for. Uh, this series for sure. I, I think they played him too much last series.
20:50
I was kind of in that camp of, okay, you've got, you've got these couple other bigs with Derrick Lively and Daniel Gafford that you kinda brought in for a reason. Yeah. Kleber's been around forever.
20:59
I think he's great, like you just broke down. Great in specific matchups. Little smaller ball you're gonna see in this series.
21:04
I think it w- he would've been nice to have and, you know, just kinda- 'Cause you could run him out at the five. Right, exactly.
21:09
He, and, and just, and be able to match up with what the Thunder are gonna do when they try to g- go small. Yeah. Mm-hmm, yeah, absolutely. This is, uh, I bet the over tonight. I bet, I bet on the over 216.5.
21:18
That, uh, you know me. I, uh, the totals I'll bet a little bit more in the playoffs. I'm not a huge totals bettor.
21:23
And man, it's mainly unders in the [laughs] playoffs for me, but I thought there was a little value on the over here. I, I, just to... I mean, you're talking about two top seven teams in pace during the regular season.
21:32
Now Luka Dončić dealing with his knee injury has definitely been playing slower. They're gonna wanna slow it down in the half court a little bit more.
21:39
I think the Thunder, though, will be looking actively to get out and run, attack the paint like they do in every, uh, every single game that they play.
21:46
I'm expecting a high up game, uh, up-tempo game from the Thunder, kind of forcing the Mavericks', uh, hand in that. This is, just talking about the series price real quick, man.
21:56
I don't know if you did anything with this. I've got Mavericks futures that I'm just kinda b- gonna be riding and hoping and praying here for. Uh, look, they're a great team.
22:04
Uh, uh, they're a great team right now, uh, have looked awesome since the All-Star break. To me, at this price, there's some value on the Thunder side. If I d- if I wasn't involved at all, I'd probably be looking there.
22:14
I'd probably be looking Thunder a little bit game to game here. Uh, especially to start with Luka's, Luka still having knee issues. Uh- That's the thing.
22:21
If there, if there was, if Luka was 100% healthy, I don't think I'd, I don't think it'd be a thing for me, but yeah. Yeah, yeah. It just, this is a little...
22:28
It, it, it was kinda like, it was kinda like the, uh, the Nuggets-Timberwolves price. It was just a little bit off to me. So I, if, if I was gonna go anywhere and wasn't involved, it would be with the Thunder.
22:37
Let's talk all things sports with our friend of the program, Drew Dincic, when we come back here on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:55
It's The Numbers Game here on a Tuesday. Matt Brown in for Gil. Our next guy, you know him, you love him. You find him over at NBC Sports Edge Deep Dive podcast, on Twitter machine whale_capper. He is Drew Dincic.
23:07
Drew, how you doing, buddy? Oh, I'm doing great. Good morning and, uh, great to see you again, Matt. It's been too long. I know, I know. Uh, I haven't, uh- I miss- All my plans to come out to Vegas have busted- I-...
23:17
uh, recently... I mean- So I haven't gotten to come see you, but yeah. Drew, it's, it's...
23:21
Listen, I, I was, I had a prior engagement and wasn't able to get onto the, uh, NFL Draft Megapod this year, which was good for the listeners because I got absolutely destroyed.
23:30
[laughs] So I'm glad, I'm glad I didn't, like, glad I didn't make it this year. [laughs] So, uh, that was, that was pretty good. Uh, yeah. Yeah, we- We, we normally catch each other at least that time of year anyway.
23:39
Yeah. You and I are in good company. [laughs] I did not do well in the draft either.
23:42
Uh, and, uh, yes, of course, uh, the, the big, like, the common theme really, uh, of Um, the 2024 so far, like, I'm, I'm just, you know, cruising along, grinding NBA. [laughs] Everything's going well.
23:54
Cruising along, grinding tennis, everything's going well. And then, like, the big events, like the Super Bowl, I thought the Niners were gonna win. Um, they did not.
24:03
Uh, the, uh, March Madness, I was against the Huskies, and of course they, uh, not only won but covered every single game. [laughs] Uh, and, uh, yes, Masters, it was a bloodbath. Uh, the draft was a bloodbath.
24:16
And, uh, I couldn't find a winner in the Kentucky Derby. So the, the big kind of marquee betting events that, uh, you know, people tend to remember, uh, I'm running pretty cold. Yeah, it's, it was...
24:26
I, I, I saved, I saved the listener some money by not making the, uh, the draft podcast this year. [laughs] That's, that's for sure. Uh- Yeah... but you... But real quick on the Derby, though.
24:34
We were talking a little bit before we came on air. The, the experience itself, though, let's talk outside of the betting thing. Sure.
24:39
You know, I do, I do a show with Mike Somich, and, and I kind of grilled him on this whenever we came in on Sunday, and actually gave him more of a, more of a position to kind of defend the, the process that goes into horse handicapping.
24:52
At the end of the day, it's the biggest race that gets the most attention. That being said, it's also the one with the highest amount of variance.
25:00
The v- much, much harder to predict than any, basically any other horse race [laughs] you're going to be handicapping on a day-to-day basis.
25:05
And so it's pretty easy, I think, for people who aren't in it very often to come in on Sunday morning, start pointing fingers and going like, "See? No one knows anything.
25:13
Y'all are all stupid, and this is the stupidest thing ever." But it's 20 horses. It's the gigantic race. Any little thing can change the way it goes.
25:20
And, and honestly, the Kentucky Derby, anyone that does a lot of the horse handicapping will tell you, that's not really where you, you make money. You make money on all the other races all year long. Yeah.
25:29
That, well, that's n- no question. But, you know, we're, we're like moths to a flame, Matt. [laughs] It's the, it's the toughest puzzle to solve. It's the toughest challenge.
25:39
Uh, the white whale of a lot of people who play horse racing is hitting the superfecta in the Derby because you, you think it's hard to pick the winner, try picking the top four.
25:47
[laughs] Uh, but, uh, you know, it's, it's, uh, you know, the race is so dependent on, um, you know, the, the early pace in particular, and whether that sets up opportunities for closers or, uh, whether the lead is gonna be able to be maintained.
26:01
Um, and, uh, guessing what that pace is gonna be just depends on evaluating the early speed horses, where they're drawn, whether they'll break well, and all of these are huge, uh, you know, just wild question marks.
26:13
And so, um, yeah, ultimately it was, uh, uh, it was not something that I saw coming that, uh, you know, Kenny McPeek and his, his, his jockey Brian Hernandez, um, they did the D- Oaks-Derby Double, and they did it the same way in both races, which was get on the rail and ride that golden rail.
26:31
'Cause the, you know, the, you know, second, third, and fourth, um, slots effectively on the track coming down the home stretch in particular, but, um, also kind of around the back, uh, were s- they were softer and the inside was tighter.
26:46
And the inside was just, it was a, it was a better footing, um, because of some of the, you know, the conditions, the rain we had on Friday in particular.
26:52
And, um, you know, Brian Hernandez is a guy that likes to ride the rail at Churchill Downs. That's his, um, you know, that's his MO.
27:00
And, uh, he did it with, uh, absolute perfection two times in the most, two most important horse races of the, uh, spring. So, uh, congratulations to him. Congratulations to McPeek and all the connections.
27:09
Mystic Dan is, um, he's a very lucky horse, man. Uh, two just absolute golden rail wins in this, in his, uh, three-year-old campaign so far.
27:18
I would say that if you see him, you know, kind of at short price, I, I would, I w- I'm not buying it. I mean, he's a good horse, but he's not that good, so.
27:27
Uh, and in fact, if the, if it was a mile and a quarter and an inch, I think he probably loses- [laughs]... to Sierra Leone. So, um, you know, it is what it is.
27:34
But, uh, the Kentucky Derby experience remains probably the, one of the highlights, if not the highlight of my sports year, just because being there to be part of the coverage and, um, you know, get the access to, you know, everything that's going on at Churchill Downs.
27:46
And, uh, meeting people and, uh, shaking hands is, uh, it's, it's a really, really good time. So, um, you know, all told, uh, I really hope to get invited back to cover next year. Talking to our buddy Drew Dintzer.
27:58
You can find him over on NBC Edge, as well as his podcast, Deep Dive. A- a- and Drew, I want to look forward before we look back, before we talk about last night.
28:04
We- we've done a bunch of recapping here, so I do want to see if you have any thoughts here on Cavs-Celtics, Mavs-Thunder. So let's start with that first one. Cavs-Celtics sitting at 12 right now in favor of the Celtics.
28:15
Yeah. 210 the total. Kelly and I were sitting here saying, "I guess we could try to talk ourselves in circles as a way that the Cavs win this series." I'm not gonna do that.
28:22
I think there's gonna be like- [laughs] It's just I, I don't see it. I don't know how it goes. We were saying even if Donovan Mitchell goes for 50 a game, how many games do you actually give the Cavs here?
28:30
So w- what do you look at this series and what do you think about the 12 tonight? Yeah. So I laid 11 on the open with the Celtics. Mm. And I took some Celtics 4+150. Mm. Yeah. Um, I don't think that the Cavs...
28:41
I, you can talk yourself into circles that the Cavs win a game in this series. Mm. It's, it's kind of like an absolute death matchup for them in every way.
28:48
Um, when you are-- And this kind of goes for, uh, you can-- This is a perfect analog to what you've already seen, by the way, with a better team in the Timberwolves-Nuggets series.
28:59
Like, when you're depending on, you know, guard play and you are up against a team that has elite w- wings, um, and the guards are such an enormous part of your offense, then that puts you under enormous stress.
29:12
And the Cavaliers are even a more distilled version of that than the Nuggets, where, you know, f- we, you-- th- they're effectively a one-man show.
29:20
I mean, it's Donovan Mitchell and to a lesser, much lesser degree, uh, Darius Garland kind of with the ball in their hands who are making things happen. Caris LeVert, uh, from the second unit taking on that role.
29:31
Um, they're, the, the bigs offer very little, uh, in terms of offensive, um, you know, production, and they, there's no creation whatsoever.
29:39
So now you're up against a, a Celtics team whose defense I think is gonna be absolutely smothering. Um, no idea how Donovan Mitchell's gonna find any space against this lineup.
29:48
I think the, uh, absence of Porziņģis against a, uh, better team would matter, but Horford is kind of the ideal, you know, uh, um, mobile spacing big to have on the floor with the rest of these guys.
30:00
So swapping Horford for Porziņģis is m- maybe even a small upgrade for this particular matchup. Uh, and I think, uh, the Celtics kind of They need to start to kind of ra- ramp things up a r- a little bit.
30:12
I don't think they can afford to come into the, uh, Eastern Conference finals flat against, uh, potentially a, a, a, a feisty Knicks team.
30:20
So, um, you know, I think they're gonna take these games pretty seriously, and I think it's, uh, uh, it's a fun play to look for, uh, Celtics to come through with the sweep.
30:28
Well, let's talk about one that might be a little bit more interesting in the Mavs and the Thunder. Three and a half currently over at DraftKings in favor of the Thunder.
30:35
218 your total if you think the Mavs went out right, plus 136. Series price a little bit, a little bit swayed out of a coin flip. It was coin flippy there for a while. I think it's 120 and even money now on this.
30:46
Uh, this one I'm pretty excited about to see how it all plays out. Well, what say you? Yeah, so I'm, I'm holding a decent amount of Thunder to win the West, uh, at five to one.
30:55
I'm holding a decent amount of Thunder to win this series at, uh, minus 115. I think my, uh, l- last time I looked, uh, and let me just double-check. Yeah, my fares for, uh, this series are mi- minus 132 for the Thunder.
31:07
Um, and I don't d- uh, you know, like this is not to disrespect the Mavericks really, but what you saw in that, uh, Clippers series I thought was pretty telling, where it took them, um, phf, what, four games to really kind of solve sort of how they wanted to...
31:21
Really, I guess maybe, maybe till the third game, till their offense really kind of started clicking, uh, to the degree it should have.
31:27
And some of the people could say, "Well, you know, Luka was hurt and he's getting healthier." Okay, fine.
31:31
Well, I, I would point to there was a tough matchup with, uh, the switchability and the, um, you know, the, the way that the wings were playing defensively for, um, you know, for the Clippers team, and just in general the Clippers being well-coached.
31:43
Well, now you come up against an even better version of that, uh, in OKC, and I think you absolutely need to kind of sincerely think about how you upgrade OKC's defense, uh, from the regular season to the postseason based on what you saw in that Pelicans series.
31:57
Uh, they made life absolutely miserable from the guards. And again, you have a situation here where 90% of the offensive creation is coming from two players who are guards here.
32:05
And while Luka is a bigger guard and certainly you can't just out-physical him, uh, the length and, you know, the ability to kind of have send multiple waves of people including Lu Dort who, um, you know, is one of the bigger just like, "I will be a absolute pest and make your life miserable," kind of defender, uh, is gonna be exciting to see how Luka handles that.
32:24
Uh, and I think it's gonna take him a couple of games to solve it. So, um, Thunder defending home court in game one and game two is my expectation. I think I take, they take the...
32:32
I, I bet them, uh, to take a lead into game three, uh, as well. I think that one was minus 125 that I bet, and, uh, it's out to minus 143, and I think that's a strong play as well.
32:43
So I think the Thunder can, uh, could take the first two here while the Mavs figure out exactly how they wanna run their offense against this very, very dynamic and flexible defense.
32:52
And, uh, I don't know that it's gonna be a short series in favor of the Thunder, but I'm not gonna be surprised if it is. Uh, 10 seconds, Drew. Are the Nuggets done? I think yes.
33:03
The guards, the guard health situation is absolute, uh, disaster for them, particularly in this matchup. So, uh, don't know exactly how they solve that. Our friend and yours, Drew Dincic.
33:13
Find him over at NBC Sports Edge, also on his podcast, Deep Dive Podcast, or the quarter machine at whale_capper. Drew, appreciate the time, buddy, and good luck tonight. All right, best of luck, man. Ooh, boy.
33:24
Yeah, he's, he said they're done. We kinda think they're done, Kelly. Think that they might be done. Yeah. Yeah, I think they are. We might, the champs might be done. It's tough. It was a great series, though.
33:35
NFL week one starters are available over at DraftKings. We'll talk those when we come back here on our Numbers Game.
33:39
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Hey, if you don't already have a DraftKings sportsbook account do we have a deal for you.
33:57
Go in, bet $5 after making that deposit, and we're gonna give you 150 instantly in bonus bets. So what you gotta do is use the promo code VSiN, V-S-I-N, when you go in and sign up for that account.
34:11
So again, go in, get you a DraftKings sportsbook account, bet at least $5, and when you do, we're gonna give you 150 instantly in bonus bets. Use the promo code VSiN, V-S-I-N. DraftKings sportsbook, the crown is yours.
34:23
Kelly Bidlin to my right, Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander as we run through a, just a packed first three segments here, Kelly. I mean, just, just packed. Running out of time.
34:33
We need about an extra 45 seconds every segment- [laughs]... it seems like. Ah, this time of year I could, I could talk, uh...
34:39
Hey, if you watch Live Bet Sunday, I could talk the NBA for hours, and that's pretty much what we did [laughs] on Live Bet Sunday. You're, you're like, "And that, in fact, is what I did. I just did that yesterday."
34:48
I love this time of year. Or on Sunday, I should say. I, I wish I got more sleep, but I love this time of year [laughs] man. Yeah. It is great.
34:53
Uh, we've skipped over just a couple of news items from the top, and we'll, we'll get to the, uh, since we're talking football, I'll get to this one. We'll circle back around to the basketball news nugget.
35:03
But Joe Burrow at voluntary workouts throwing passes. Kelly, had wrist surgery in November, so he is back out there throwing passes. Cincinnati 13 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. They are plus 165 to win the AFC North.
35:17
And Burrow, despite the fact [laughs] coming off of a major injury to his wrist, is nine to one to win the MVP. Uh, I mean, AFC North, I'd, I'd maybe I'd do that. Maybe I'd take him there or whatever.
35:31
Boy, Burrow nine to one, coming back off a major injury with a, uh, with a pissed off T. Higgins. I just don't, you know, I don't know. That one seems a little short for me, and you know how much I love Joe Burrow.
35:39
Well, yeah, yeah, I was gonna say based off of your reaction- [laughs]... I just think that the market's finally, uh, on track with Joe Burrow and how, and how we feel- [laughs]... about Joe Burrow, specifically you.
35:49
I, um, it's kind of funny, uh, we bring them up though 'cause that is the one, I think that's the one team future bet I've made so far was them to win the AFC North. Yeah.
35:57
I, I, I made that basically as soon as that was released. I don't e- maybe we even talked about it. Yeah, I just, it, to me, to me,
36:05
you know, look, nine to one, I love Joe Burrow as much as anybody else out there, but- It's gotta be d- it needs to be, it's gotta be double digits, man. It's gotta be 12, 13, 14, something like that on, on him.
36:16
I mean, there's still, again, major question marks around what T. Higgins is gonna do. I mean, he says he's gonna show up and play, but who knows?
36:21
I mean, his agent might get in his ear bad in, you know, bad advice, whatever it might be. I, I don't know. I think that's a little bit short.
36:27
But good news for football fans just in general, and then also just for, for certainly for Cincinnati Bengals fans, it's Joe Burrow is back out there after that wrist surgery that he had in November.
36:38
It does, it does feel short, though, just because of, I mean, g- like, look at this list right now. There's a... It feels like a lot- He's third on the board. It feels like a lot of dudes could win the MVP this year.
36:48
Yeah. Like, like more guys- Oh... than, than in, in years past. You know what? You know what? Maybe this is a discussion we should have tomorrow or the next. I agree. How about that?
36:57
I'm here, I'm here Wednesday and Thursday. I agree. So maybe we'll throw that up there and we'll give our full opinions.
37:00
But one of the markets that is available over at DraftKings is who will be starting quarterback week one for team X? And this is who is going to be under center to take the first snap of the season.
37:14
That is what this bet is for. So let's go to one that's l- let's go to one that's a little less, a little less sexy, and then we can get to the ones that are, that are sexy. The less sexy,
37:25
Gardner Minshew, Aidan O'Connell for the Raiders. Gardner Minshew minus 400 to take the first snap for the Raiders. Aidan O'Connell plus 270. You went and signed Gardner Minshew.
37:35
Gardner Minshew is nothing special, Kelly, but he's better than Aidan O'Connell. You, you didn't get what you wanted. You... I mean, if you read the report, they were trying to get up in the draft. They were trying.
37:46
They, it didn't work out. You didn't get what you wanted in the draft. It's going to be Gardner Minshew. I know us laying 400 whenever there is the chance of training camp injuries- Yeah...
37:56
the chance of pre-season injuries and all that.
37:59
But if you had a big old fat bankroll and could figure out whether they would give you the limit to make it worth it or not, 'cause I don't know exactly what they're taking on these type of bets. But
38:08
this one is a near lock barring injury. Because they are not, they did not go sign Gardner Minshew to just start Aidan O'Connell. They'd have just left it alone. They'd have went and signed two other
38:19
bums off the street- Mm-hmm... and then let Aidan C- Aidan O'Connell start. I mean, Gardner Minshew's starting. Yeah. What, what... I mean, this is... What are we in now?
38:25
Year three or year four of DraftKings posting these. They're great, they're great markets. I think they're always great con- [laughs] like great conversation pieces for, for us in the past.
38:34
I don't remember liking as many, uh- Oh, yeah... uh, betting, from a betting standpoint as I do this at w- with, on this graphic and what we're seeing this year. And, uh, you, I mean, you hit the one right away. I...
38:45
That's... I mean, it's, it's a gamble, right? This is a gamble because of everything that Matt J- just brought up. Injuries can happen.
38:52
Now, I can, I can make the argument for sure that Aidan O'Connell, uh, y- I mean, he's gonna play more in the pre-season, right? So he... There's even a better chance of him getting injured. Yeah. You don't really w-...
39:02
I mean, we hate playing that game, but if you're betting something- Yeah... like this, you gotta be thinking that way. Um, but yet, like, they brought Gardner Minshew in.
39:08
Like, they said, "No, no thanks to Aidan O'Connell," [laughs] basically. Yeah. Brought in Gardner Minshew. We don't... I... He's not Joe Montana. I, I like, I don't think he's gonna be great.
39:17
I think the Raiders will be looking to move on from him sooner rather than later, but he's starting week one this season. As long as he's healthy, he's starting week one. Yes. There, there's... They s-...
39:27
I mean, he got a two-year, $25 million deal. I mean, I mean, it, the- Yeah. It, they would not have paid [laughs] they would not have paid him if they were just gonna start Aidan O'Connell. It ju- it wasn't gonna happen.
39:36
I mean, but the other one that jumps out to me, I, uh... I mean, the other one jumps out to me- Yeah... it's the same situation. Uh, or, or, or I'm s- sorry. The, the little bit opposite situation, right?
39:44
It's the Seattle situation. Geno Smith, Sam Howell. I li- I still like Geno Smith in this. Wait, wait, are we... Like, you think Sam Howell start- starting for the Seahawks week one? Like, I...
39:54
That felt like a backup move. [sighs] That felt like a bringing a, a backup now that we need a backup more so than someone to r- truly compete with Geno Smith.
40:02
See, like, now I think, [sighs] now I think we're, we're going different directions here. Ooh, okay. I think there is a non-zeroed... So, so here's, here's what you... If you're Seattle, right?
40:11
One, you know Geno Smith is not your quarterback of the future. You've, y- you, you know that already. We have seen now the true Geno Smith again come out again. His floor... He did raise his floor a little bit.
40:23
But the problem is, is his floor is also his ceiling. He has no ceiling whatsoever. Right. Yeah. So, like, they know exactly what they have in Geno Smith. He has raised the level of his floor.
40:32
He is no longer a bum in the league. But he has absolutely no ceiling. Do we know for sure that Sam Howell is trash? Because if you look at the situation he was in, it was not great.
40:44
I mean, the coaching situation, the ownership situ-... Everything about where Sam Howell was go- where was at was pretty terrible.
40:51
Now, if he were to step in, you have three legitimate wide receivers to throw to, along with a tight end. And, and I, I don't know. I, I think there's...
41:00
I still think it's Geno Smith, but if he goes out there and just absolutely wipes the floor with Geno S- with, with Geno S- if Sam Howell wipes the floor with Geno Smith in training camp, I... It would not shock me.
41:10
Okay. Okay. I would not be shocked. I see that more as a week five, week six. Like, "Okay, we're off to a slow start." Certainly could be. Geno, like, "We're good.
41:18
Let's see what we got when, uh, with Howell here for the rest of the year." Broncos, Bo Nix minus 300, Jared Stidham plus 330, Zach Wilson nine to one. It's not gonna be Zach Wilson, so it's either Stidham or Nix.
41:30
I think Nix starts day one. I know there's some people out there that think not. I think Nix starts day one. I think that you have a coach that went out and got his dude that he wanted. Yep.
41:41
And he's gonna prove a point, that I got the guy that I wanted, and he's gonna go play.
41:45
I think this whole deal of taking Bo Nix, which some people thought of as a reach, and then if you sit him, Kelly, then it's kinda like, "What are, what is, what are you doing? Why did you do this?" Yeah.
41:55
I, I agree with you. I, I agree with you. I don't know that I'm minus 300 confident, though. Like, [laughs] you know, it is... I...
42:01
You do have Stidham there just in case, I mean, things go slow with Nix in training camp or something like that. But I'm with you.
42:07
I, I think it would be pretty s- it would be pretty surprising if Bo wasn't starting week one. Yeah. I, I, I like him to start week one. I think there's some other interesting rookie markets for him as well.
42:16
Maybe we'll talk about those a little bit later in the week as well. This is the interesting one, and I was actually shocked at these odds. Vikings, Sam Darnold minus 160. To start week one, J.J. McCarthy plus 120.
42:31
I like the dog here in this one in J.J. McCarthy. You take a look at the situation that he gets, is stepping into.
42:38
You could argue, even over Caleb Williams, that he is stepping into a better situation in which you are getting not only the best receiver in the game. Addison came on very, very well over the...
42:50
When he had to step up and be wide receiver one when Jefferson was hurt. You have Hawkinson there from a tight end position.
42:55
You play indoors in a dome, which is again another good thing, you know, whenever you're talking about not having to play outdoors in...
43:02
I understand he played at Michigan, but s- you would still, you'd still rather have optimal conditions than having a guy playing outdoors in cold and, and freezing temperatures and things like that.
43:10
I, I, I think McCarthy is in such a good situation that you're, you drafted him as your quarterback of the future. What good is it?
43:18
Like, you're talking about, what is, what good is it if you're the Vikings to do that whole, "Oh, well, he comes in in week four, week five"? Why? Right. Why?
43:25
What if playing Darnold for three or four weeks, what if that loses you three or four games and now you're out of the playoffs already? I mean, like, it doesn't make any sense to me. Oh.
43:31
If you're gonna do that, lose with J.J. McCarthy. So I think, I mean, the team argument, right, would be, "Okay, we think we have a veteran quarterback that we wanna see what they have.
43:40
Can they give us a chance to make a playoff run," right? And I'm talking kind of both Minnesota and Seattle here.
43:46
I think that, I think that's the argument, but I think Sam Darnold is a very, i- is a different situation from Geno Smith, just 'cause Geno, Geno has led these guys to a couple winning seasons over the past couple years.
43:56
The scary part about this one is- Sam Darnold's brand new there. Well, here's the scary part about this is what if you start Sam Darnold and he's good? Right. Yeah, no, I, I, yeah, yeah. And now you gotta sit your guy.
44:05
Then you got a problem. Yeah, and then you gotta sit your guy the whole year. Like, you know, like, what if he, what if he starts off 5 and 0, 6 and 0, or something like that?
44:11
I'm not saying that's likely, but what if he does? And now you gotta sit J.J. McCarthy the whole season. I think that's the best argument, right? You know? Yeah, yeah. Like, what if he's good? We don't know.
44:19
Maybe he is good. We'll see. We'll figure that out. We're gonna talk some soccer here with Paul Carr when we come back. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
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