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May 7, 2026
A Numbers Game | May 7, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | May 7, 2026 | Hour 3
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Transcript
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0:29
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSIN.
0:40
Hour number three of the Numbers Game at VSIN, the Sports Betting Network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM Channel 158. Gil Alexander.
0:49
Kelly is behind the glass because, uh, we're getting ready for, uh, Unscripted with The Crack Man Bill Krackenberger. Just one tweet here before we g- uh, get into it.
0:56
Torch D, the one who put the satin in your panty, said, "Draymond Green is a first-ballot Hall of Famer and he will be a media all-star. The guy is fascinating. I wouldn't say Kurt held his career back. Kind of absurd."
1:06
Yeah, kinda. "But he may have been a more prominent feature on a different team." Ooh, Torch D. We, we were in agreement until the, the end of that. One, I agree he's in the Hall of Fame.
1:18
First ballot, I don't know, he's in the Hall of Fame. No question. In fact, I took incoming for many years 'cause I said Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are gonna be in the Hall of Fame.
1:27
They absolutely are gonna be in the Hall of Fame. They won four championships, and they were key cogs of the Warriors' wheel outside of Curry. So that, that I totally agree with, and I've said it all along.
1:36
Um, will he be a media star, all-star? Yeah, I don't know about that. I really don't. And would he have been a more prominent feature on a different team?
1:47
Uh, sure, on a team that finished maybe 20 and 62, if they made him a prominent feature. I just feel like there is no person like him in any other sport.
1:57
So valuable to a, in a Hall of Fame career, to four championships, but if you place him on another team, what does that really translate to?
2:05
We can n- I can never prove it, you can never prove it, but it's just one of the, the interesting questions. But I do agree with the Hall of Fame part. Unscripted with The Crack Man Bill Krackenberger. Let's do it.
2:14
[upbeat music] Hit it. Morning. Billy. And, uh, last night, a great meal.
2:30
Uh, the reason why I bring it up right away is because it's, it's kind of a gem that people didn't know about in this town. I think it's one of the best steakhouses in town. Yes. Right? You are referring to? Bavette's.
2:40
Bavette's. Bavette's at Park MGM. Uh-huh. I love the music, the silent, like, the nice little jazz music. The- Yeah... it, it's pretty dark in there. It used to be real dark.
2:48
Like you said, you w- wouldn't be able- When-... to see your menu... when it first opened- Right... you needed a lantern to see the person across from you. Wow. I kinda like that. We would, we would laugh uncontrollably.
2:58
[laughs] Now it's a little more lighter in there. It's, it's still dim- Yeah... but it's, it's a little lighter in there. But- Food is great... thank you for dinner again. Yeah. Fantastic. Yeah, no, isn't that great?
3:06
And, and, uh- Steaks consistently good... steaks are great. Bread. The burger. Oh. The bread. The bread is the most glutinous bread in town. Yeah.
3:15
So- You see, you see what I still do, I grab the inside out and, and that's- That's what I do. That's what I do... the, I just want, I just want the little bit of the crust. Meat. You know? That's exactly what I do.
3:22
Trying to get, you know, and that's the old, uh- The, the wedge salad with the bacon. That one's great. Dude. Mm. I'm, I haven't stopped thinking about it. And, uh, where'd we go the night before? I forget.
3:31
Night before we went to Lago. Oh, Lago, which sh- I've never been to. Bill and I are not, uh, skimping on meals here. Oh, sorry. Lago. Sorry, guys. Lago. I mean, it's good for people to know where to go, though.
3:39
Yes, Lago at, uh- Lago at Bellagio-... at Bellagio... is fantastic. Give the girl, like, five bucks, 10 bucks, and go where- and go at 5:00, right when they open, and get right out a window. [laughs] That's right. Yeah.
3:48
It was great. I'd never been there before. I had- Me either... but at the, but at the table tops in the front. Me either. So not really. I thought the food was great there. Yeah. Yeah. Fantastic. Okay. Man.
3:57
Well, I was just outside. You're a good man, Bill. I appreciate it. Randy McKay was outside talking to me just now. Yeah. He went to the game last night. He sent me a couple photos, and I was...
4:05
He was right against the glass. I'm not... Just, and I said to Randy, "How, wow, you had great seats." He goes, "Oh, I was with Derek." Yes. So I wasn't thinking that's Derek's box right there. No wonder why.
4:13
Is that right against the glass? So Derek has seats right behind the goal. Uh- Yeah... right behind, I wanna say it's the east goal. I don't know.
4:21
If you're looking at the TV broadcast, I think it's the one on the right, but don't hold me to that. Okay. But anyway, it's front row. Okay. And yeah, I went once where there was a VSIN group.
4:29
It was VS- I went VSIN team B night, I believe it was. They had a team A night and a team B night. But we, they were nice enough to invite us all. Nice. And it was spectacular.
4:37
'Cause- They, they do a great job, too, the Golden Knights, of, of, of getting their fans into the game, getting the kids into the game. It, it's a great venue. Oh, yeah.
4:45
The thing about that, those seats, though, they're so good that when it, when the game first starts and you're not used to it, you know, these guys are shooting [laughs] at the net, and they'll, they'll more often than not miss- Yes...
4:55
and it'll hit the glass- Bang, right in front of you... right in front of you. Yeah. And at first you're like, "Whoa, oh my God." Yeah.
5:00
And that happens, and imagine before the game starts when they're just whacking at it, right? Trying to get in there. Sure, sure. And it's, it's just, uh, it's, [laughs] it's like you're on the fire.
5:08
Now I, I've been to a, maybe a dozen hockey games, one in Florida and about 10 here, I'll say. Yeah. I've never seen the pu- Does the puck sometimes go over the glass? I, I would think it would. Oh, yeah. Absolutely.
5:18
Like, hit the glass and pop over it. Oh, of course. The, hockey is the same as baseball.
5:22
Think about all the history of this country, how we went all those years, all those decades, where the netting at a baseball game only extended a certain amount- Yes... down the foul lines. Yes.
5:34
And how in hockey, the, the pucks were, you know, y- they were, they flew out into the stands all the time- Oh, okay... before safety restrictions were sort of put in place. You'd get killed by one.
5:43
How did more people not get killed? 100 miles an hour, I mean, uh, these things come at you. I remember in an Orioles game, dude two seats next to me got hit by a Cal Ripken line drive in the chest. Wow. Oh.
5:53
Took him, like, three innings to recover. Wow. Wow. And he didn't get the ball. It bounced- He didn't even get the ball... bounced to someone, like, 10 rows down who was like, "Thank you."
5:59
I see all these videos of people stealing the ball from kids- Oh... stealing the ball from females. It's so bad. These, these, these wackadoos. Uh- Yeah... speaking of wackadoo, Randy got a little wackadoo last night.
6:09
Okay. He's, uh, he said, "I'm recovering." I said, "From what?" He said, "I was drinking all night." [laughs] Like, I, I didn't even know Randy drank. [laughs] I was, I really didn't realize he even drank.
6:17
And, um- You mean that slow drawl of his is not, um- Yeah, it's slower. Yeah. It's slower this morning. Slower this morning. Yeah, he's feeling it.
6:24
But, um- You know, one thing about advantage players, they just take advantage of everything. So drinks are free, just keep on giving me them. Sorry, Randy, I don't mean to put you on blast here.
6:34
Get the free drinks- It's the principle of the matter... get the value. It's like Fezzik, it's the principle. It's just the principle. [laughs] Gotta do it. But, um- That's so great. Yeah, so- Yeah...
6:41
so, and, and then he just told me, "It's good for you to drink." I said, "What?" "This is good for you to drink. There's a lot, a lot of good f- things that come out of drinking." So- In m- I, I may start...
6:48
in moderation, boys and girls. Yeah. It's not, that's not health advice we're giving. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, no, no. And I, I just think that,
6:55
especially in a gambling setting, I think drinking leads to bad behavior, you know? Because you, you feel like a superpower. Of course. You know?
7:01
You, that comes over you, and, you know, I, I just don't think gambling and drinking mix. Not only- But I understand every casino does it and has it, and I, I get it...
7:08
not only superpower, but imagine, like, how irrational people get when they lose a bet. Yes. It's always never- It's a different- It's always a conspiracy against them, the refs did this.
7:17
You know, and I'll tell you another thing. M- without drinking even in the mix, you put it in the wix- in the mix, it's even gonna be worse, but poker players, or i- I'll, I'll say gamblers in general.
7:28
Let's use gamblers in general. They mistake luck for skill. They actually think that- Right... they're skilled at something. Right. It makes them wanna come back.
7:37
Or I always say it, if you're watching a game, you know, your eyes play tricks on you. You're always thinking, "Oh, I shoulda won that," 'cause you're only looking at the game from the way you bet it.
7:47
It, it, it, it, it really is amazing how, especially in poker, World Series is coming up here at the end of the month, I believe it starts the end of May, and people really think that they're much better than they are at poker, and they mistake that one lucky tournament when they, you know, w- where you have to...
8:06
I, I guess you have to come over, like, you, you have to overcome, I mean. You have to overcome, like,
8:10
you know, many, many different situations to get to a final table, and you actually think that you were a f- a, a coin flip that you won. Yeah. In theory, it's really a coin flip that you won.
8:21
You know, you were 52% or, or, or 50% or 58%, and you keep on winning the 58%, so that, you're not supposed to win the 58% three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10 times. Right.
8:31
But they say, they feel that, "Oh, oh, I'm lucky." Y- you know where we see it? "I'm actually very good. This is not luck, I'm skilled." Oh, I say it all the time in Survivor, in NFL Survivor.
8:40
It's like, the person that gets to week 17 doesn't even process, like, how some people play it- Perfect... and are willing to, to risk it all in weeks four and five.
8:49
Like, they don't e- They think they're so much b- They think by virtue of the fact that they've gotten this butt lucky the whole way through- Right... and that you played it a different way- Right...
8:57
that they are just so good at this, right? Yes. I'm like, "Oh yeah." Yes. "You're really skilled. Man, you're the best Survivor player."
9:03
No, it's you, you had 55 entries and then you happened to play it well down the stretch. Oh, that's right [laughs]. Yeah, there's that. He had two, did that person have two entries that made it?
9:10
He's a poker player, he had two entries that made it to the end? Yeah, he wasn't the original, though. Oh. He invested in them. Yeah. Okay, okay, okay. But yeah.
9:16
Um- Can we set up, so we're, we're usually, we're unscripted typically. Oh, yes. But we did get into a conversation last night. We did. And so we do have a guest coming up the next segment.
9:26
Would you like to sort of set this up for us? Uh, Paul Matisse is one of the best horse r- you know, one of the best horse... I'll just be honest here. I, not honest, I'll just be blunt.
9:36
Him and his brother, some of the best horse rating, uh, racing syndicate guys in the world. They controlled markets. They were very, very sharp at what they did.
9:44
They beat horse racing, um, personally about 20 years ago, got me thrown out of a racetrack. It, it's a long story. I'm sure, uh, Paul probably doesn't even remember. He's been...
9:54
By the way, they, they didn't get thrown out for doing anything wrong. They got thrown out for using their brains. Mm-hmm. So, um, a- a- and I was also part of that. So, uh, Paul beats horse racing.
10:04
I always put down horse racing 'cause of the takeout, 20%, 25%, the gimmicks and stuff. It's ridiculous, or even higher than that.
10:11
But if you are good at this, which there's not many people that are good at this, horse racing is the downfall for so many gamblers.
10:20
I mean, look at all the broken down people that have bet horses their whole life, just, just not even realizing, uh, why they lost. They just, they're just destitute, broke, and, and go from check to check.
10:32
And, and I understand it. Guess why? I was one of them. I used to go to Monmouth Park when I was a kid, Meadowlands when I was a kid. I didn't even know it was 20% hold.
10:39
I didn't realize, sports is like 4% compared to that. Right. Um, so, uh, yes, Paul and, and his brother, some of the best in the world.
10:48
However, I believe Dukes, his brother, they're, they're both on Twitter, Dukes made a post on, under one of mine that says he hasn't bet a horse in a year, and it's due to these CAWs. Yes.
10:58
So it's due to these- Computer-assisted wagers. Yes. So, uh, we're gonna find out more in this next segment with Paul. I look forward to... I, I haven't talked to him about this at all.
11:07
We're gonna talk about it for the first time here live on VSiN in about- Yeah... 10 minutes or so.
11:11
Because what, what we got into in the conversation last night, and, uh, y- I don't know if you noticed this, I was having trouble getting the answer I was looking for from our, from our lovely company last night. Yeah.
11:21
Because essentially what I'm, what I was trying to get at was if w- what, i- is this going to cause bettors, hor- horse racing bettors to stop entirely, in many cases, from betting horses, this advent of computer-assisted w- uh, computer-assisted wagering, which essentially
11:40
w- we had it on a grand stage over the weekend where folks thought they had w- you know, odds on a certain horse that, I don't know what it was, the exact number, uh, was, I wanna say 12 to 1, don't hold me to that, but essentially what they ended up getting in the end was far less than that.
11:55
Five to one. Five to one. It's unbelievable. So- Live on TV people seen it. W- how does the racetrack handle this? Do they care? I don't think they care. Do they have a- We're gonna find out.
12:05
And what I was looking for last night was what's the explanation they give, though? Right. Because when I go in- Ooh, good, good question from Paul... when I go in and they spin the odds on me, they make up something.
12:14
They're like, "Oh, somebody on the other side of town might've, must've just bet it right at, right at the same time," which is, you know, bull. Paul Matisse next on The Numbers Game.
12:22
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12:46
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
13:01
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13:12
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13:15
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13:28
That's all of them. For every major sport throughout the year, head to vsin.com/subscribe. Use promo code PRO. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander, Bill Krackomberger, Unscripted with the Crack Man.
13:41
Uh, you can follow Bill on Twitter at @BillKrackMan with a K. Name of his podcast is, uh, Wisecracks, which he does with John Orlando.
13:47
Uh, and Bill, this is a real, real treat that we have today because, and I hope Paul, um,
13:53
is, is okay with the sort of sports bettor-angled questions because as, as sports bettors who are not n- who is not necessarily a horse bettor, this is fascinating to us.
14:03
Well, a lot, a lot of sports bettors were horse bettors when they were younger- Yeah... or they still are. There's a, there is a crossover there, so it's a fascinating subject.
14:10
You asked me about it and I said, "Let's go to one of the experts." Yeah. Paul Matisse joins us now from Saratoga. Paul, a, a great horse bettor himself. Paul, thanks for joining us. Appreciate it. Yeah.
14:21
Th- thanks for having me, guys. Uh, you guys were talking about perception in gambling. I, I've always said that that... earlier, that there should be, like, a, a, a course study on that.
14:30
It, I think it would be, like, the most fascinating, uh, psychol- psychological study ever. I know gambling's taboo, but the perception in gambling is, is just a unbelievable topic.
14:39
I was glad you guys [laughs] brought that up. Oh, for sure. It is. Paul is an Eclipse Award-winning, uh, handicapper as well. So Paul, let me, l- let's, l- let's go back to this past weekend. T.O.
14:48
Elvis, four-year-old Kentucky-bred thoroughbred, trained in Japan, wins the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes.
14:54
Now, he does this, he wins by three, uh, over three lengths, I believe, under Jackie, under jockey, uh, Ryusei Sakai.
15:01
And so he goes into the gate, the horse does, as a 12 to one shot, and then because of computer-assisted wagering, the, the race starts and all of a sudden it shifts to five to one.
15:14
Uh, take us, uh, g- give me the background on computer-assisted wagering. How long has this existed?
15:19
Why did this moment become such a seminal moment for it in terms of folks realizing, "Wait a minute, what's going on here?" Well, it, it's, it's gonna be a big deal now that it was on national TV.
15:31
You had Mike Tirico talking about it, which was great. Oh, wow. Uh, it finally really, it came into the f- the forefront.
15:37
And, uh, so to have somebody of his, uh, stature, you know, kind of questioning it and, and trying to, uh... almost putting a negative light on it was great for, for, uh, for, for gamblers.
15:50
But, um, the few, the history of CRW, CAW or CRW, whatever they call it, um, really came out of blackjack, believe it or not. You know, the guys who used to count cards? Um, they had this idea to, um,
16:05
that if they could match up probabilities versus odds, that they, and do it using a computer, um, that they could beat racing. Like, uh, I think y- y- it, Beat the Book was, or was it, uh...
16:18
It, it pretty much started with the same guy there that, that had the blackjack counting book. I can't remember his name. Bill Benter, maybe? Wait a minute. Well, he was his disciple. Okay.
16:27
He, he's a big, he's a big guy. But this even goes back further. But he, Benter was a blackjack guy, too. Right. And they, they came up with this idea, which was fine because they were still handicapping at that point.
16:38
And, you know, if you were handicapping and you had a different opinion and, th- th- than they did, even the way they bet big amounts of money to kind of break even, you still had, you still had an opportunity
16:51
if you were right and they were wrong, which is basically gambling. You know? If you're playing against somebody's opinion. However,
16:59
with the technology, AI technology, and the way it's progressed and the evolution of it, it's now become more like the stock market, more arbitrage, where the AI analyzes the money bet and puts it s- this w- in this position instead of another position.
17:16
And it's not, it's not really handicapping. It's just really making a mockery of the parimutuel system. So these odds will drop.
17:25
And also, the, the, the advantage they have, which we should say, is they, they get to bet at the last second because they have the, the technology to do so. So the last bet that comes in every single race
17:40
for every track in America is, is this one group or two groups. And they, so they control the odds.
17:48
They totally dictate the odds, and it's become now where it's a bit more based on their, on their position than anything else. And I've been saying it's a mockery because as we saw on Saturday,
18:02
a horse will go from 12 to one, and during the race he goes to five to one. You know? [laughs] So, so Paul, let me- And that's- Let, let me sort of ask then.
18:09
So do you believe, do you believe that the net effect of this is, now that it was on this grand stage, and so folks who are used to horse racing, they're like, "Wait a minute, I thought I had a 12 to one shot.
18:18
Now it's like so... I, I, I, I wouldn't have taken it if it was a five to one shot." Do you believe that the net effect is that this is gonna have a chilling effect on some who will just say, "You know what?
18:28
I don't want any part, I don't wanna do this anymore. I'm not gonna bet horses at all"? Or do you feel like [laughs] they'll still override this in their heads and be like, "Ah, I still love it too much.
18:38
I'm still gonna do it"? It's gotta have some chilling effect on this, right? I think it already has.
18:43
I think there, you know, there's, there's numerous of people that, numerous groups of people that have- I wouldn't say beat horse racing, but, you know, do better than the, do better than the takeout that have already quit because it's, it's just...
18:59
And then the secondary thing is th- the, the racetracks believe that people will keep, keep playing because it's entertainment or whatever.
19:06
But I would argue that you cannot have a gambling game where people walk away mad. Right.
19:12
If, if somebody's expecting $24, if you, if a, if somebody went up and tried to cash a bet on the, on the Super Bowl and they gave them half the money,
19:22
and they tried to explain it, "Well, some, some computer group in, uh, in Australia, uh, bet it this way, so now you- we're, we're only gonna give you half the money."
19:30
[laughs] It doesn't matter how much you like it, you're gonna walk away. Yeah. So- Yeah, you're gonna be mad... and, and so, and so the racetracks themselves are like, in effect, they're saying, "Too bad.
19:41
It was just a bunch of bets that happened at the very last minute. That's how the cookie crumbles." Well, because they're getting tons of volume. Yeah, they don't care. They're get- they don't care.
19:46
They g- they just get a percentage of the volume. Am I right, Paul? So they're in, they're basically in on it. Absolutely. I- i- in a, in a way they are because they, they understand that they make these guarantees.
19:58
In order to get the advantage that they have, they make these guarantees that they're gonna bet tens, hundreds of millions of dollars throughout the year.
20:04
In return, they get these kind of, uh, advantages, and they've, they've made that deal. They've said, "We don't care about our regular day player. You know, we'll, we'll just, anybody who bets anything, we'll let...
20:18
We're gonna take the guaranteed money from these groups, and, and that's how it's gonna be." And if you, if you...
20:25
The, the other thing, too, is they really don't g- put those numbers out, but if anybody's looking at it, the, the regular horse gambler's handle is way down in the wa- and as, as these groups have gotten bigger,
20:37
and their handle's gone up. Sure. Yeah. The group's handle has gone up. So, so it looks like that the, the racing is kind of staying the same, but it's not. It's, its popularity is completely waning with gambling.
20:49
Talking to Paul Mattice Jr. here, uh, um, just an absolutely successful horse racing handicapper known far and wide in the, in the horse racing industry.
20:56
And I guess, Paul, the, the follow-up question, the obvious question then is at the very least, doesn't this open up the door or at least the impression that someone could have of nefarious activity, right, between the racetrack and the syndicates, right?
21:13
They could make, they could levy that charge at the very least. Like, how do we know this is above board if it's not actually happening? What's, what's your opinion on that? It, uh,
21:21
e- even, even more so than that, it, you know, because the bets come in after the race starts, you know, you, you, you have the idea that, well, maybe they're p- maybe they're betting after the race starts. Right.
21:33
You know, these odds drops happen, you know, they, they don't happen five minutes to post. They, they happen at the last minute, you know? If... You, you can't have that kind of stuff keep happening and have a...
21:47
And that's what I keep, uh, suggesting to the people that are in charge of th- these tracks. You're, you're just... First of all, as [laughs]
21:54
as my friend Crack al- always makes fun of horse gamblers [laughs] on a continual basis, we're already kind of the, the low, the low man on the totem pole with, uh, gambling. Sorry.
22:03
[laughs] When you, when you put this involved, it's like- Right... [laughs] you know, it's, it's... I got, I got no recourse.
22:11
I can't come back because this is, this is a, you know, it's kind of disgraceful, you know, that, that this, this could happen. You know, the, the other thing that's happening that they're doing is that...
22:22
And I don't think everybody quite understands this. It's not completely their opinion, which is what... If it was completely their opinion with gambling, you know, you guys would be fine with it.
22:32
That's, that's the nature of the game. But what they're doing is they have these AI technologies. Because it's a parimutuel pool- Yeah... and all the money comes in, they can analyze the people that are betting it.
22:44
So their opinions basically come from other gamblers, and then they put it all together what's best for their spreadsheet.
22:53
They, so it, it's no longer become a, a parimutuel racing, which was a great system, you know, in, you know, 100 years ago.
23:01
Even, even 20 years ago, it was a great system, that the money would be pooled in and, and it would be s- you know, split between the winners. It, it's, it's a... In, in ways it's better than even, you know, a, a bookie.
23:14
However, in, in this world now with people taking advantage of it, it's, you know, it's, it's run its course. It's- It's run its, run its course. Paul, um, we won't keep- Yep...
23:25
we won't keep you for another full segment. Can you hang out for a couple more minutes, though? Is that okay? Sure. All right. Paul Mattice- Yeah, definitely...
23:31
Paul Mattice Jr., by the way, you can follow him, uh, on Twitter at Paul M-A-T-T-I-E-S-J-R, J-R for junior, on the old Twitter. Uh, that's where you can follow him. We'll talk to Paul.
23:44
Just a couple of more follow-up questions with me and Crack and Paul Mattice on a Numbers Game at VSAN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSAN, the sports betting network.
24:01
Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, Downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Bill Krackomberger.
24:07
It's good to know Crack, 'cause Crack, uh, has gotten us so many just amazing guests that I could have never on my own this year. Thank you. Yeah, it's been fun. Matt Boyer. Matt Boyer. Um- We've had Teddy on.
24:18
We've had- Teddy on. Uh- Casey, obviously... the Japanese gambler. I can't think of his name. Oh, yeah. Nice guy. Absolutely. Yeah. Um, and today Paul Mattice, who was kind enough to join us this morning.
24:28
Real quick before we get to Paul, 'cause I was, I was hogging Paul last segment, so Bill wants to ask him some questions. But we get texts and we get tweets.
24:33
Chris Felice, our buddy the Bear, who obviously loves, uh, betting horses, he says, "I went back and looked at my ADW summary for this year. I have bet horses, uh, six days," he says. "It's driven me away, too.
24:46
Contests I'll play because they're technically not in the parimutuel pool, but I have bet far fewer horses this year."
24:52
Tired of getting, and these are, [laughs] these are his words, tired of getting reamed in the keister [laughs]... is what he said on there. And, um, yeah, I mean...
25:02
And, and he says, he goes, "I know, Gil, you've said this in the past, how I, how I- it's the one thing I love to bet more than anything." And it absolutely is for him.
25:09
Uh, so that's a, you know, that's Chris' perspective on it, and it, and it comes from someone in the know on this. RN Diggity, "How or why are they able to be the last to bet?" is his question. Uh- Good question...
25:21
good question. We'll get to that here in a moment or two. Ace de Cardano, "You can't tell, you cannot tell a dying business not to take free money. Every extra dollar of pari-mutuel pool adds money to their pockets.
25:30
The only solution is fixed odds wagering, like they have in Colorado and the rest of the world. It's great," he says. And then a couple questions about the rebates, right?
25:38
Uh, TDG, "It's also my understanding these CAWs have negotiated loss rebates with the racetracks to gain an even bigger advantage." And Pre-War Collector says, "Gil, ask Paul about the rebates these groups get as well."
25:48
So Paul Mattice joins us once again. Um, let's- Hit that last question first... let, let's start with that last one first. Yeah. Exactly. I would like to know that. What, what of the rebates?
25:55
I, I didn't think that was legal. Yeah, what of the rebates, Paul? What's the story there? They're gonna agree with me. Gamblers are the smartest people in the world. You know, those are great...
26:03
All those comments are, are awesome. They were great. Um, it's not sucking up. I, I just believe that, you know? Like, in, in life. I, I'm sure you guys feel the same way. Yes. You guys have similar likes than, as I do.
26:14
You just wanna hang around with, with smart people, and the smart people are gamblers. [laughs] You know, it's like, it, it just, it, it's that way in life. But anyway, rebates are...
26:26
Rebates were a good thing which led to the boom of ga- where horse racing turned into the best, uh, gambling game, where I don't think Crack knows this so much, uh, 'cause he was too busy making all his money in sports.
26:38
But around the same time that I just went towards horses, rebates started popping up. So which, essentially what rebates do is lower the takeout.
26:48
So the, the takeout being such a high amount, if you were a regular player, you could change the, the takeout from 15% to 10% or 8%, you know, based on what you're playing.
26:59
And now, now the- now it becomes kind of a, um, more enticing gamble because the, the, um, at that rate,
27:08
you know, it, you're, you're playing a, at more of a reasonable game, especially with multiple, uh, result scenarios.
27:15
So technically, you know, you could throw one horse out and, you know, your, the, the edge keeps dropping that the, that the house has. So and that, that existence was good for, for everyday gamblers.
27:28
It was good for, for their, for their players. However, when these computers became involved, their rebates kept going down because what the tracks looked at is, "We gotta keep these guys in business.
27:40
So if, if they don't have enough rebate, then they're, they're gonna stop playing, then we're gonna lose the handle."
27:47
So they just, they just kept giving them whatever advantage they, they could on the rebates to keep them playing. It's to the point that one or two groups are essentially playing without a r- without a takeout.
27:59
So now you understand that any sports player, if you, if I could play a game where everybody else is g- is, is a takeout is four, and I'm gonna get... And my, the game is gonna be at one,
28:11
and I'm playing against, essentially playing against that person, I mean, just look at that edge that you're gonna have. Massive. Oh. You know? Yeah. Forget betting last, which is another advantage, [laughs] you know?
28:23
And forget analyzing.
28:24
If, if I had the computer and the AI technology to take Crack and all the, all the expert guy, winning guys and take all their, their action and actually kind of try to pinpoint it, you know, and the way the lines move, and then change it.
28:40
So say a line moved from, you know, during the, during the game went from five and a half to seven, but it n- it never showed. So everybody else had to lay seven, but the computer guys get to lay five and a half- Yeah...
28:57
at the last minute. That's essentially what's happening, you know? And they didn't even come up with that line, though I think they do s- they might have made it six and a half on their own.
29:07
But they get this reassurance that, "Oh, we're right. You know, what... Everybody else's, everybody else that's sharp is playing it."
29:14
So that, I mean, that, obviously, if you keep playing that, in that world, they're gonna end up keep winning. Sure are. They're gonna keep taking the money. That, that drives it- And that's what- Yeah...
29:23
and that's what's happened in racing. That drives it home for sports bettors. But Paul, th- this is happening at the big racetracks also? Someone asked that. Great question.
29:32
The Saratogas, the Del Mars, and the, uh, obviously the Churchills. This is happening at those big giant racetracks also, correct? This has happened at every race at every track every day- Wow...
29:43
for the last, you know, five years. The o- the only thing that's changed is that NYRA has in the last, uh, six months have made some changes. So I imagine Saratoga's gonna be a little bit better. Okay.
29:57
They're, they're kind of limiting and making them better. So to NYRA's credit, um, th- they are aware that it's, that it's a problem, and they're gonna, and they have made some adjustments.
30:08
It, it's not, it's not completely... They're not, they're not throwing them out, obviously. But it's at least where it's, it's playable. Uh, so you have to give NYRA some credit in that, in that regard.
30:19
Now, you and your brother- It'll be, it will be okay... your brother and yourself, you, you guys really are in play. Your brother said he wasn't playing at all. This is a guy who's made millions in horse racing.
30:28
He's not even playing because of the CAWs. Is that correct? He's not playing in an, in a, uh, you know, in the same manner, you know- Okay... uh, w- that he was. Not even...
30:39
I mean, he's more recreational now than, than he, than he was. Um, I continue to play and I won last year, but the amounts that I bet and the way I play has completely changed. It's taken...
30:51
You know, if I didn't love the whole process of the, you know, picking winners and the game, I, I definitely would have quit But, but, you know, I just still see it as a challenge and it's, it's kind of been my way of life and it, it's, it's saved me from [laughs] what you were talking about before, you know, going down bad roads as a gambler and to other things.
31:12
So I- Sure... I have a, a, a huge, huge love for racing. Because I do believe it is the greatest game. There's so many ways to go about it. It's just a shame that it's come to this. Todd Bubba Horowitz, our buddy.
31:23
Uh, the tracks love the CAW. They make more money. Pari-mutuel wagering is a license to steal.
31:28
Notice that in Vegas they used to book the races themselves, but now only take action where they share in the handle with no risk. There it is. What, what that means is they used to actually book in-house- Right...
31:37
the odds, which is a, you know, can have, you can have a lot of different edges there betting. There's quinellas. There's a lot of different little things that these guys had. But the tracks now are not.
31:46
They're putting it right in pari-mutuel. Is that right, Paul? Yeah, and, you know, it's, it's, it's, it's a funny game because the, the, the good players got really good.
31:56
I don't, you guys might not have been in Vegas then, but, um, when, right at the end of when the, when the horse racing was booked in Vegas, the Sport of Kings opened. It was over on, uh- Oh, yeah... Paradise. Yep.
32:06
Um, it's, uh, it's where Piero's, is that still open? Yes. Yes. Piero's, yep. Yeah, it was, it was right there. And what, what, um, what happened is they...
32:17
Well, they had the idea that they'll, they wanted to take every horse bettor in the world, [laughs] and they would take any amount, and they, they just got too cocky.
32:26
And they, and they took every sports bet that, uh, anybody wanted to bet, and they, they went belly up in like in a year. Um, the horse bettors and the sports bettors beat them, you know?
32:36
And that kind of put the end on booking in Vegas. That left like an idea that you couldn't do it. And it was a shame. Uh, it was more so the way they went about it than the fact that, that it happened.
32:49
But that kind of was the end of the, the booking in Vegas. Paul- Paul, Paul... Th- oh, go ahead, sorry. I'm just, Paul, what do you see happening? My last question. What do you see happening here in the end?
32:58
What do you see happening at the Del Mars and the Santa Anitas and the Churchills? What's your, what's, what's the end game here? What do you...
33:04
Or do you think nothing's going to happen because, uh, you know, you can't fight Congress? What do you think here?
33:10
I, I, I, I love the fact that, that, the, that it happened on such a national stage, and you guys are bringing it up. This is, this is awesome of you guys. I can't thank you enough. I'm sure Bear feels the same way.
33:20
You know, it's not just the win odds, too, you know? It, it, that's all that you see, but the exactas, and that's probably what Bear was getting at. Exactas and tris are, are, are, the same thing happens.
33:31
You, you expect to get a certain price that was paid forever. You know, this exacta's gonna pay $100, and then it pays 60, you know?
33:40
[laughs] And just over time, this has happened in every pool and every bet at every track. What's gonna happen is, if they don't do something, there's going to be no general fan bettor, uh, slash, uh, bettor. Right.
33:56
Gotcha. It's only gonna be the enter- it's gonna be entertainment, and then the computers, you know, chewing up the, chewing up the, I hate this term, but the, the fish, [laughs] you know?
34:08
They're, they're just gonna chew them all up, and nobody else is gonna be... There's gonna be no middle ground.
34:12
And, and that kind of, uh, that kind of culture or that kind of society in, within any gambling game can't work. It just, it, it has to be the end of it. It can exist in a, in a fringe, but it has to be the, the end.
34:26
Paul Matisse Jr., everybody. Paul, thank you so much for the time, and really, uh, giving us context and shedding some light on this. Thanks, Paul. Yeah. Thank you, guys. Paul Matisse Jr., everybody.
34:36
Uh, really kind, uh, to spend some time with us on The Numbers Game in what is, uh, what appears to be a sci- You know, it's been going on, but a lot of people saw it for the first time on a national stage, and it's gonna have effects for sure.
34:48
It ain't going anywhere. Coming back with Bill. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:06
Back on The Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort Casino. Gil Alexander, Bill Krackomberger. Unscripted with the Crack Man, Bill Krackomberger. Usually for an hour. I know. I know.
35:14
We, we ate into some Crack time, but we, we thought it was worth it- Definitely... with Paul Matisse. Uh, could you just, uh, indulge me for 30 seconds here, or maybe 45 seconds? We have had...
35:24
This is, you talk about other sports being frustrating to bet. How about this for this morning? So in our four tennis bets, one of them, well, withdrawal, so that doesn't count, so it goes down to three bets.
35:36
Uh, Oleksandra Oliynykova was up 6-1, 3-1 on Clara Tauson. We're on Oliynykova. Clara Tauson walks off the court with an injury, so if you didn't bet it at a full, if you didn't bet it at a one-set shop, instead of
35:51
coasting to victory up 6-1, 3-1, it's a refund. So we have a win taken away from us by that. Then we just had a match, and this has been going on the entire show. We had Katarina Siniakova versus Anna Kalinskaya.
36:06
This is a new record for me. Katarina Siniakova, who we were betting on, had nine match points. Nine. She squandered every one of them, and we lose the match in three. That's impossible.
36:21
I, I just- I guess it's not impossible... I literally, I know your- It's too strong a word... I know your sports keisterize you. Nothing keisterizes you more than tennis can. Whew. My God. It's just bru- it's brutal.
36:31
Instead of a 2-0, somehow you're 0-1. Wow. It's incredible. Ay, yay, yay. That's gonna leave a mark. Anyway, thank you- One, one of the worst ones? One of the worst feats? Oh, I've never had a match...
36:43
I, I can remember a Ludmila Samsonova match where it was eight set points, I wanna say. Right. But nine match... I think six was my previous match point squandered record. Six or seven. Oh, wow. Never nine. Wow.
36:53
It's never been like this. That's incredible. Wow. What do you say? Uh, you know, and to go back to Paul. Yes. Yeah, I d- I thought he would be the expert guest, and he was. He was great.
37:04
Uh, I, I think he was really good at, at the way he explained it. Um- E- especially going to the window and going to cash your ticket for 100 bucks and you're only getting 50 back. Yeah.
37:14
It's like, wait, wait, what happened here? What happened? That, that's, you know, trying to draw a parallel to what us horse b- us, us, uh, the, the horse bettors go through compared to us sports bettors.
37:23
Now, on a good note, I absolutely loved that Sherry DeVeaux, and I wanted to ask Paul and I forgot. Darn it. I thought it was so good for horse racing. First female trainer to ever win a Kentucky Derby. Yes.
37:36
The videos they showed of her and her, her sisters- While, while it was happening... and her daughter went, "Oh." She was, like, riding the horse.
37:42
I thought it was so cool for the horse racing game, and, um, the overhead shot of Turning for Home. Incredible. How... I- I don't think we'll ever see a horse again, dead last in a, was it 20 horses?
37:56
I think it was 20, 22. 20. 20 horses. And then as one got scratched or something, two... Um, I don't think we'll ever see a horse go from dead last like that, Turning for Home, to go outside- Yeah...
38:08
around all the other 20 horses and beat and win the Derby. And just think about that. I wanted to ask Paul. He would know more than me.
38:16
You're taking so many more steps going outside, that horse, than going inside and saving steps, more ground. I, what an amazing feat for the horse. And I wanted to ask him also, by...
38:28
They just announced yesterday the horse is skipping the second round of Pimlico. Yes. Um, a- and, and people were very upset. People were saying, "Well, that's the reason why I watch these Triple Crown," and- Yes...
38:39
so people are very upset. But I think it's the, is it supposedly the better decision for the horse? Absolutely it is. According to horse folks, absolutely it is. By the way, also Golden Tempo,
38:50
you know, the manner in which it won the Derby is not conducive to the shorter track at, at, uh, Laurel, right? Okay. Or the shorter race here, or the second leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness.
38:58
Oh, that's where it is. I didn't even know. Preakness.
38:59
But, but I, but to your bigger point, I have made the point that you just made, which is, all right, horse racing, we all agree, right, it was a huge sport in the '70s.
39:08
It is a sport that is dying with the generations, right? You're not, I mean, you're not gonna walk out in this casino, run into a random 23-year-old and be like, "What do you think about the Derby?"
39:16
They're, they're not, not gonna have an opinion on it- Right... typically, right? So in addition to all that we talked about with Paul Matise about now they're messing with the betting, right?
39:25
Which is g- which is gonna peel off, if you're to believe the, the Falica sentiment, it's gonna peel off a bunch of folks who have been betting for a long time.
39:34
They're just not gonna bet anymore, or they're gonna significantly reduce their bet size, but probably just not bet at all.
39:39
The Triple Crown thing is a big point because for casuals who might gravitate towards, I'll t- take, I'll s- use my buddy Tommy in DC. Tommy is Mr.
39:50
Average Sports Fan who loves football, and everything else is kind of like, "Oh, yeah, it's the NBA finals. Oh, yeah, it's the World Series," right? That guy, right? Tommy shows up for the Triple Crown. Oh, wow. Okay.
39:59
If there's no Triple Crown possibility, he could not care less about the Preakness or the Belmont. Okay.
40:05
And I think he is reflective of many, many hundreds of thousands, if not a, a few million Americans, maybe millions more,
40:13
who are just like, "Oh, if you're not gonna do that anymore," and I get it for all your horse reasons. You wanna protect the horse. Breeding is way more money than these hor- these, these specific races are.
40:27
But the notion that you are now removing the Triple Crown from the equation as more of the rule than the exception, that's also killing the sport, in my opinion, in terms of if you ever wanted to expand it.
40:38
So I mean, this, this, this sport, man- Yeah... is getting it all wrong. And, and, and is it going to affect the casual fan, like myself? Yeah. I, I, I actually went to Saratoga, like, 21 years in a row for the Haskell.
40:50
Uh, no, no, it's, it's in the Traver- Traverse. The Traverse. I went there with a bunch of friends 21 years in a row when I was back east. And, um, a- and I, and I went to Del Mar many years, the Del Mar racetrack.
41:03
It's a very fun social thing for me. I bet 5 or 10 bucks a race, and guess what? I'm still gonna do it probably. Yeah. And we throw a pool together to bet a pick five, I think it is. Um, we just have some fun. It's...
41:13
But for the guy that goes to the track every day, that was already getting grinded out, that now it's even gonna hurt you even more. Yeah. So, um, great, great questions on, on, on, uh, on, on Twitter here.
41:26
Thank you, guys. Do we wanna recap bets, guys, real quick? Do we wanna do that? Is that, are we, uh, contractually obligated to do that? Um, uh [laughs] okay.
41:34
All right, the tennis was enough I think for, [laughs] for everybody. Um, Kelly's basketball, can we at least do that? Did Kelly have any plays tonight in basketball? Nothing? Nothing specific?
41:43
He's, uh, well, let's just do Zach's, 'cause Zach's had, uh, today. Zach Cohen, uh, by the way, mine Mariners, most wins May.
41:49
Zach Cohen's b- uh, basketball plays, Cavaliers, uh, plus three and a half tonight versus the Pistons. He is a Cavs guy, uh, directionally longterm here in the playoffs.
41:59
He likes the Cavs plus the points tonight versus the Pistons. He also has sprinkled the Cavs on the money line tonight, plus 144 versus the Pistons.
42:06
Rui Hachimura of the Lakers over 12 and a half points versus the Thunder.
42:09
Also Hachimura, 15-plus points at plus 150 for half a unit versus the Thunder, and Jared McCain over three and a half points, uh, for the Thunder versus the Lakers.
42:18
How did, how did they let Jared McCain go, by the way, to the Thunder? It's unbelievable. [laughs] D- Daryl Morey, Daryl Morey's like, "Sure, have him." [laughs] Yes. Did you see one of the tweets there?
42:30
Nine times, like- Nine times... nine t- match points. Wow. Even I know what that, I mean, I'm not even a tennis pro, and I know that just nine different times, phew. Probably can't happen again. It numbs you. Yeah.
42:41
Like, you can't even speak afterwards. Mm. I'm sorry to bring it back up to you again. Yeah. No, that's all right. Um, that, uh, P came out, and Steel was one of the guys that said it, "Bevets is awesome.
42:49
So happy for the entire park." Yes, um, Park MGM, smoke-free, and you know what? They thought that was just gonna be an experiment. As you could see- Yes... the casino is packed. Yes. Smoke-free just may work.
43:03
Smoke-free casino. It just may work. And, um, you know, uh, he also said Bardot at the Aria, I've never been there, for brunch on the weekends. Which place? Bardot, B-A-R-D-O. Oh, yeah. B- uh, Brasserie Bardot. Okay.
43:14
Good. Yeah. Bardot Brasserie, pardon me. Uh, I don't know. I didn't go for brunch, but I think for dinner I feel like we're so bougie talking about these, these big- We're over bougie duo all of a sudden.
43:21
[laughs] You're gonna miss Carbone next week, by the way. You're leaving. Yeah, sorry about that. [laughs] I'll miss that one. Oh, oh, I'm sure it'll be... I'll be back for another. Yes. Yes.
43:28
You'll be back for the one at Bellagio. Although I, yeah, I have not done Carbone Riviera. Let me, let me read some, uh, Twitter- Sure... on the way out here. This is from Folks.
43:34
"Sweet Lou Monaco, thanks so much for having Paul on. Explained perfectly for knuckleheads like myself. Keep getting it, Crack. Keep winning.
43:40
Montreal Max, uh, that was too much serendipity as while I was typing my question for Paul, he drifted right into talking about the sport of kings.
43:46
That was such a beautiful property, but boy, did they ever get their ass busted with arrogance that they could beat anyone.
43:51
Uh, J Bump, personal opinion, but I believe another factor in the last two years of the Derby winner not going to the Preakness is the Belmont being run at Saratoga at a shorter distance tainted the idea of the Triple Crown.
44:01
Asterisk for sure." Um, and on and on with these. Uh, Paul Nelson, "My friend was playing Churchill Downs last week, Wednesday.
44:08
He had this happen to him, seven to two a minute to post, three to one in the gate, seven to five crossing the wire. That's a heck of a cut in your ROI.
44:14
TVG is now FanDuel Racing, and they only have a few advantage races a day." Sir Dub, "I don't think I can take WTA tennis anymore. It's taken years off my life. This girl dominated that match." Wow. Bro. 512 to one.
44:28
Fez just said, "If you have a knife, can you stick it in Gill's side?" 512 to one to lose that, that type of a situation. Keep going, guys. I'll be dead by the end of the show. [laughs] Wow. We only got a minute left.
44:41
It's, it's coming live on air. Jesus, that's, that, that, that's bad. It's bad way to end it, but however, you'll be back. Kevin Ryan is speaking, and I know we get this. We, we really appreciate having Paul Matisse.
44:51
I know Crack is our most beloved. Paul, uh, Kevin Ryan speaks for those for a segment of the audience, says, "Gill, that guest was very interesting. However, we wanna hear Crack every Thursday for the entire hour." Ah.
45:02
I'll be back in a couple weeks. Gill's off next week. He'll be back in a couple weeks. All right. Crack's back in a couple weeks. We'll have him for the entire hour, promise you that. Billy, thank you as always.
45:09
No problem. Great segment, and, uh- Yeah, man... great, it's just great to know that, uh, what's going on in the horse race game, we have one of the experts saying it- Absolutely... and talking about it, so that's great.
45:18
Dude, you're like, uh, you're the best guest getter ever. Yeah. We appreciate it. Cool. All right. Prop points, we've done all we can do. Prop points is next.
45:25
Uh, Nick Whalen, Jeff Erickson, that'll be from, uh, 1:00 to 2:00 Eastern, followed by Money Moves, JBT and Stormy. Stormy will be on the show tomorrow in addition to Fezzik and Felika.
45:35
And Follow the Money with Mitch and Paul after that. That's your day on VSiN. Enjoy. From VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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