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May 8, 2026
A Numbers Game | May 8, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 8, 2026 | Hour 2
00:00
46:16
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Transcript
0:00
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0:57
the sports betting network. The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
1:11
Hour number two of a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. Vsin.com game plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM channel 158. Did I leave anything out? I don't think I did. No. No.
1:21
Any way you're taking us in, we appreciate it. I'm Gil. That's Kelly right over there. Hey. He's the, he's the one with the, uh, the weight loss. Ladies, soak him in. How you feeling? You feeling good about it all?
1:32
Feel like a new man? Feeling great. Yeah? Just ran into Brendan Mendez at the gym yesterday. Hey, Brendan. AG Legend. Yes. What's happening with Brendan? I hadn't seen him in a while either- Yeah... man.
1:41
It was, uh, great to see him. Um- Was he like, "Wow," when he saw you? He, well, he was. It was kind of funny. [laughs] It was kind of funny. Do you get that a lot of people are like, "Oh my God."
1:49
Well, I think he was like a perfect... I haven't seen him in like a year basically, since he, I think it's been a year since he left VSiN, and yeah, I haven't seen him since then.
1:56
It's like you ever see the Kevin Hart thing where Don Cheadle says he's 57, and Kevin Hart goes, "Wow." [laughs] It's like, Brendan's like, "I saw the beard across the gym- [laughs]...
2:04
I was like, I'm pretty sure it was you, but I wasn't sure until I came up." Uh, we had tweets beat the book Teddy Rak. How do we feel about just auto fading the over on Angel Reese points all year?
2:15
[sighs] Let's see how it goes for Angel. New team, right? Yeah. New team. No longer with the Sky. She's with the Dream, I believe. Is that correct? I'd say that's what I was- Yeah... gonna say too.
2:25
[laughs] That's what Kelly was gonna say too. [laughs] Vegas regular, uh, quote, "I want them creamed and buffed with a fine cham..." What was that? "I want them now. Chop chop." What is that from? I don't even know.
2:36
This is, I'm just reading random quotes without even knowing- Yeah... what they're from. Confirmed, Angel Reese- There you go... on the Atlanta Dream.
2:42
Uh, The Mel underscore Insiders, "I went to click, and the Yankees moved to plus 390 on DraftKings. Still like it." Yeah, I do too. PK Mountain, "Still the market mover. Race to 10 wins. Go Yanks.
2:53
I just barely got it in at plus 475. Not there now." He got there quick. Mike Rouse, "DK down to plus 390 now. Yanks for May wins." Did I do that?
3:04
And PK, uh, adds, "I thought Gil was moving markets, but DK reset my screen to most wins in May with Yanks at plus 390 in that market." Yeah.
3:10
After I got plus 475, a race to 10, doing stuff like this, I should pay attention. So it did move to plus 390, in other words. Yeah.
3:17
Mile High David, "Yo, Guardians versus Vikings, [chuckles] that's the relegation I'm here for. Hanging on your every word. Got Y- [laughs] got Yankees race to 10 plus 594 with a boost." There you go. "Love the show."
3:28
Thank you, Mile High David. Uh, there you go, showing the plus 475 from Joe Trapanese. He said, "I bet it on principle, but come on, the CFTC can't grant widespread approval to prediction markets fast enough."
3:40
Yeah, man, it's, uh... I should do a show on that. I have very strong feelings, and it ain't the Nevada side of things. Let's put it that way. Just leave it at that for now. It's frustrating.
3:53
I'm on team prediction markets. Ladies and gentlemen, Chris Fallica joins us now, The Bear from Fox Sports. He is the head of the Bear Bets podcast empire. You can follow that at BearBetsPod, by the way, on Twitter.
4:04
You can follow him personally at Chris Fallica. Um, by the way, check out all his stuff on Instagram as well. He's all over the place. Fox Sports just doing you good on Instagram. Mm. Fallica bits everywhere.
4:14
You enjoy doing those? I do. Absolutely. Yeah. You do s- Of course I do... you do great, you do great on them. How was your derby? We should start there. Friday was vi- Friday was good. Saturday was horrific.
4:27
Ho- horrific. Yes. I needed- Yes... yeah, I need, I needed either, uh,
4:32
Chief Wallaby or Emerging Market to run in the tri, and then I would've been good because I had 12, 15 kinda keyed in with a bunch of horses in different spots, and, uh, unfortunately, the, that didn't happen.
4:44
Uh, Renegade ran an unbelievable race, something that I did not foresee happening from the rail, so I lost the matchups that I had with Renegade against everybody else. So, uh, yeah, Saturday was, uh, rather forgetful.
4:57
Can you grade my, uh, or my B- Bill and I, Crack and I with Paul Matisse yesterday? Did we do okay with that? A. A. Absolute, an absolute, an e- easy A. Great movie, by the way. Easy, easy A. For those having fortune.
5:11
Side note. Yes. Side note. Um, it is- Yeah... your text was pretty- It, uh, it w-... was pretty interesting in the middle... it w- w- Yeah. Yeah. Paul, Paul w- uh, gets it.
5:20
I mean, he's a guy who's been around the industry, uh, his en- his entire life, uh, he and his family. And I, I, I think what he said at the very end about
5:32
you're betting thinking you're, you, you, you're laying seven, and then for no reason whatsoever, you get to bet five and a half at the last click and lay that.
5:42
Like, that, that's the, that's what we're dealing with here. And, uh, yeah, it, it has deterred me from betting.
5:47
I think I said to you, I think I looked, I had like six full days where I've, like, literally just dedicated my afternoon to just firing all afternoon, uh, as opposed to maybe a spot play here or there.
5:57
But yeah, it's, it's been, it, it, it's been a rough go. So, uh- They, they, you can't really do anything because the tracks need the churn.
6:05
Uh, then the tracks and Stronach are involved with the Elite Turf Club, uh, is the report. So yeah, it's a, it's a bad deal right now for the, uh, for the average der- race, race fan.
6:15
Yeah, I think Fezzik will have something to say about it a little later on in the show.
6:18
For those who missed it yesterday, you can go to the VSiN app, uh, check out hour number three yesterday, where Bill Krackenberg and I talked to, uh, Paul Matz. I'll shout to Krack for getting Paul on the show.
6:28
Uh, the Preakness is but eight days away- Mm... at Laurel Raceway, uh, in Maryland. Golden Tempo will not be there. Uh, do you agree with- Right...
6:38
do you agree with my very non-horse person take of I get it, I get the horse people know what they're doing, and Golden Tempo, it's too, too short, uh, of a, of a track. It's also too short of a rest.
6:50
Uh, they don't wanna risk anything. Breeding is where the money is, and I get all that.
6:55
But do you agree with the, with the sort of the casual fan that's like, "Okay, man, this sport, like, first it's the betting thing we were just talking about," which that- [laughs]... that's, that's going awry.
7:04
And now it's like, oh, we're just not doing Triple Crowns anymore. That kind of, that's not gonna gain fans either, right? No, a- and I get it fro- from that standpoint.
7:13
You, you have an unbelievable story with, uh, Cherie DeVaux and the Phipps family, and Cherie would becoming the first female trainer to win the Derby.
7:21
And you, you would think that that would be something that you could capitalize on, uh, running in the, in, in the Preakness.
7:28
But again, if the horse comes back, lays an egg, uh, a- and then you're looking, okay, well, now the horse is too tired, and coming off of that performance, maybe something goes wrong, and you can't run in the Belmont, and maybe there's an issue for later in the year.
7:39
Like, I totally c- I get everything from the, from the horse owner's point of view, and that's kind of the side, uh, that, that I err on.
7:46
But yeah, from a, from a pure racing fan or a racing casual who's like, "Oh, this is great, maybe this horse can win the Triple Crown," yeah, it does suck.
7:54
Uh, it, it does suck, and now you're looking at a, uh, a Preakness field where you're probably gonna get one returning horse from the Kentucky Derby, uh, Ocelli, the maiden who, uh, ran an unbelievable race at a million to one and finished third and nearly looked like he was [laughs] gonna win the race for a minute.
8:10
So you, you might only get that. Uh, we just saw Crude Velocity, uh, the Bob Baffert horse that Drew had alluded to earlier i- in the week.
8:18
They're gonna skip the Preakness with him and point him towards the Woody Stephens, uh, which is the seven for a long sprint race Belmont weekend at Saratoga.
8:27
So for, for racing fans, uh, that's gonna be an unbelievable race. Uh, we'll, we'll see Cr- if Crude Velocity can, uh, back it up at Saratoga.
8:34
Uh, we, we'll see what the field draws, because I think there's a horse, uh, that, that I looked at in the, in the future odds, uh, named Iron Honor, uh, a Chad Brown horse who we, who we will likely be, uh, sending to, to Laurel for this.
8:47
But I think that is a horse that you might wanna look at. We don't know, we don't know the full field yet, but, but I do think Iron Honor would be a horse that you might wanna look at. Say, say that five times quick.
8:57
Iron Honor. Iron Honor. Exactly. Iron Honor. Exactly. Iron Honor. Very good. Okay. Um- Say, say Iron Honor along with, uh, Yulia Starikova, and you're golden. [laughs] Sta- There you go... Starikova. That's right.
9:09
Uh- She'll be the jock... thanks for walking off the court, Clara Tauson. [laughs] Anyway, don't take me back to yesterday. All right, so, uh, do we have horse races, a horse picks for you today, for you today?
9:19
Did I see that? No, I, I- Okay... looked. It is a decent weekend, um, at, uh, uh, at, uh, Aqueduct, uh, Belmont at the Big A. That meet is going on for a little while until they move to, uh, Saratoga.
9:30
They, they, you do have, uh, a few stakes races. But I, I just thought there were shorter fields and a couple of logical contenders that kinda stood out, so I couldn't really, uh, make, make hay of anything.
9:41
But yeah, there, it is a pretty decent card, uh, at Aqueduct tomorrow. And then obviously Churchill is still open as well.
9:48
And then, um, we'll have Preakness weekend next week, and then Sara- the Saratoga Festival, uh, first weekend in June. All right, we got four sports worth of picks nonetheless. Forget horse racing for a second.
9:58
We got four sports. Mm-hmm. Uh, we got the WNBA, we got college football, uh, we got baseball. Let's start with soccer, though. Let's crescendo. What do you like in soccer, in the Prem?
10:08
Uh, Paul touched on the, uh, Liverpool-Chelsea match before, and I took it one step further and just played Liverpool, uh, first half, +120. Uh, Liverpool had been extremely disappointing this year.
10:21
A bunch of injuries, and really, again, Paul mentioned they don't have a lot to play for.
10:25
But I do think the fact that this match is at Anfield, and the fans are a little up in arms right now about the reports that Arne Slot will be back, um, Mo Salah gone, a lot of the moves surrounding the team.
10:37
I think you're gonna get a, uh, about as good of a performance, as good as an effort as you can from Liverpool on, uh, tomo- tomorrow morning. I think they'll get a goal in the first half.
10:47
Chelsea scored one ma- one goal in the last seven Premier League matches as a team. They don't have a manager. Their ownership is in disarray. They got players who are absent.
10:55
I think they'll show up for the FA Cup final in a couple of weeks, but I think tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon, uh, at Anfield, the, the goals could really pour in for Liverpool.
11:05
So I, I played Liverpool +120 first half. First half, Liverpool +120 versus Chelsea. All right, college football, you've been sort of sprinkling these around for us. We have an under on Michigan State, four and a half.
11:19
Shocker, another under from me- Mm-hmm... on, on a season win total here, right? But yeah, I, I, I laid the, I laid 145 with Michigan State under four and a half. Uh, a team that was four and eight last year.
11:29
You bring in Pat Fitzgerald, a very high-profile coach hiring. And look, Pat Fitz got screwed at Northwestern. He absolutely did.
11:36
But if you look at his final four years at Northwestern, you take away the 2020 COVID year, which was just a complete outlier, just a varying range of ridiculous results. I, I, I don't count 2020 really for anything.
11:52
He was seven and 29, three and 24 in the Big Ten in the, i- in those, in his final three years if you exclude, uh, 2020. I worry about how much the game has changed Uh, in, in the four years since he's been a head coach.
12:06
Uh, you look at the schedule, they're gonna have to be four and three after seven games in order to have any chance, uh, at getting to five.
12:13
Uh, no Ohio State, no Indiana, but still, you're looking at UCLA, at Michigan, Washington, Oregon, and home prior to that final game of the year a- at Rutgers, which is probably the game where you could get your fifth.
12:26
I, I just don't see it happening. Uh, I'm under four and a half here with the Spartans. Okay. Under. What were some of the other unders you had real quick on the show so far?
12:34
Yeah, I, I have, um, I have Florida State under. I have LSU under. I have, um- Michigan under... let's see. The o- Was it Michigan? Yes, Michigan under as well. Michigan under. Yes, thank you. Okay.
12:48
That was the other one. WNBA and a Cy Young play from Chris. A long shot, next. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
13:00
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13:16
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13:49
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14:04
Head to vsin.com/subscribe and use promo code PRO. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. We get tweets. Beat to the book. Always appreciate it. Uh, Aya Oya, S69, "The quote you, uh, read is from Caddyshack.
14:19
It's Judge Snell telling the employee of the golf club how he wants his shoes shined." Oh, that's right. I'm sorry about that. Judge Snell, what a character. Big A Mountain Steel,
14:29
oh, the, the Caddy- Caddyshack reference, he's letting me know as well. Judge Smalls demanding his shoes be, uh, stripped of wax, creamed, and buffed with a fine chamois.
14:38
Jason Stark, was it first to 10 in May or May total wins? Yeah, you're too late. It's first to 10. [laughs] And we were talking about first to 10, Jason. Yeah.
14:47
He said, "Oh, that one," he said, "That one's plus, still plus 475. It's the May total wins that's down to plus 390." Sorry, trying to multitask with my job. Wait, is that true? Oh, no.
14:56
Well, g- good pointing that out then, Jason. Yeah, 'cause- And that, and that's a, and that's a good point. Hold on one second here. Yes, we were talking about the first to 10.
15:01
If, if only it were easy to find on DraftKings. Plus 390 May wins, but what about for race to 10, though? Okay, so it didn't move. The market that we were talking about didn't move.
15:16
Yeah, if you're on that DraftKings page, what you're gonna wanna do is you're gonna gonna go to DraftKings. Mm-hmm. You're gonna wanna go to MLB. Yeah. And then you're gonna go to the Specials tab at the top. Yeah.
15:26
You're gonna go to May Specials, and the first one you're gonna see- That's right... most wins in May. Keep going down a little bit further, then you're gonna see the division wins market- Yeah...
15:37
which is also awesome that they post. And then finally race to 10 wins- No, don't be-... where you will find the Yankees at plus 475. Don't be in the wrong market. That's not what we were just talking about.
15:46
We were talking about mos- first to 10 in May. Thank you, Jason Stark, for that clarification. Chris Fallica kind enough to join us for our second segment 'cause he's got a bevy of picks.
15:54
Uh, we were going through, uh, Chris, yesterday, we were going through all the, uh, all the sports that you have, uh, handicapped on this here show in the past, and we came up with 11.
16:05
Horse racing, NFL, college football, NBA, WNBA, college basketball, NHL, ML- MLB, soccer, tennis, golf. That's 11. Fallie, are we leaving out something? Did we do something random once? I'm sure we're leaving one.
16:18
I'm sure we are. We pro- we probably are. Yeah. I'm sure we are. Okay.
16:22
Let's, uh, let's do your baseball one, 'cause I actu- actually watched a, uh, Instagram video of yours where you talked about a long shot American League Cy Young play. What's that? Yeah, yeah.
16:33
Emerson Hancock, uh, he's now 65 to one. I, I will give the correct price. He's, uh, no longer the 80 to one that I, uh, just played. But 65 to one I still think is worth a, uh, a price.
16:43
It's, it's, uh, worth, worth a play. Uh, I think it's a wide open race. Skubal is now out of it. Uh, you really can't back any of the Schlittler, Cease, uh, Fried, uh, de Grom, uh, really short prices.
16:58
Look, uh, Hancock is a guy who hasn't thrown more than 90 innings in his Major League career. He got, went from 60 to 90, and now maybe he's ready to make the leap, uh, to the, an, an ace type of stature.
17:11
He goes tonight against the White Sox in Chicago. What you're looking at a, a young arm who's averaging 10, 10 strikeouts per nine innings, doesn't walk anybody, eight to one strikeout to walk ratio.
17:21
Uh, a whip under one, 2.56 ERA, uh, 225 opponent batting average, which is down, like, 45 points from a year ago. Uh, a team that I know you're very high on, and a team that should be a playoff team in that division.
17:34
Uh, why, why not Hancock if you're looking to try and go a little bit further down the board? Uh, 65 to one, I'll take a shot at that. Okay. Uh, special numbers game.
17:43
By the way, Emerson Hancock coming off that, uh, 14 strikeout, zero walk outing where the, uh, Mariners lost the other night. 14 strikeouts, zero walks.
17:54
[laughs] Gave up six, scattered six hits over seven innings of the Mariners lose the game to the Royals. Gave up the lead in the ninth, lost it in 10. Emerson Hancock. That's right. Ooh.
18:04
Emerson Hancock Uh, all right, special numbers game investigation reveals that the WNBA season begins tonight. You're pretty pumped about this, right? You're a big fan of the WNBA. I am.
18:14
Yeah, Jeff Schwartz got me f- fired up about the start of the season. Uh, Toddy's sending out Discord messages- Yes... that the WNBA starts tonight.
18:21
Yeah, so I f- I figured I had to do a little bit of research and be invested for some season-long stuff. Uh, and, uh, it leads me to a couple of season win totals and an award. Uh, I...
18:31
The Chicago Sky were a team that were terrible last year, and, uh, Angel Reese was like, "Oh, we, we need to improve our talent level." Well, they did improve their talent level. They did, by getting rid of her.
18:40
[laughs] A- and you brought in- She's... Bam. Wow... Skylar Diggins, Jazi Shelton, God's girl, Dijonai Carrington- Oh, he loves her... uh, Natasha Cloud from free agency.
18:49
It's a, uh, the, the back court should be pretty good, and you got two p- two players in the front court who were both top five picks, uh, in consecutive, uh, i- in, in the same draft are Rickea Jackson and Camila Cardoso.
19:01
So, like, it's a g- interesting combination of experience in the back court, uh, w- with, with youth in the front court. Like, they, they could be one of the more improved teams. I think they won 10 games last year.
19:15
Uh, 18 and a half, it doesn't seem like that's too far of a, uh, a reach to expect that they could p- make nearly double their win total given the big names that they brought in.
19:24
I mean, they were a terrible offensive team last year. You would expect that to get better. And even with Angel Reese and her rebounding ability, they weren't that good on the defensive end either.
19:33
So Sky over 18 and a half. And then on the flip, uh, I, I know, uh, I- I'm not gonna lay the three with the dr- with the Dream. That's a nice inside joke. But, uh- [laughs] Yes, it is...
19:43
Atlanta won 30 games last year, had a surprise regular season, uh, and then flamed out in the playoffs, uh, losing in the first round to Indiana.
19:51
Common school of thought is you bring in Angel Reese and everything's gonna be better and they're gonna continue to rebound, they're gonna continue to win, uh, those games.
19:58
They were one of the better three-point shooting teams in the league last year. Is that going to continue? I mean, three-point shooting is very, very random. So we, we'll, we'll see if that happens.
20:09
Uh, I think a lot of people are expecting this team to improve on last year. They gonna win 30 games again? I don't know, so I went under 29 and a half wins- Wow... on the Dream. Wait, can I just stop you?
20:18
And then I played the- Can I, can I just stop you there? This is just you ha- Oh, I'm sorry. I apologize... this is just... No, that's okay. This is just- I'm on a roll...
20:23
this is just you hating on Angel Reese, isn't it? Sky over Dream under. This is just the anti-Angel Reese. I- I- it's like, like the re- it's like the, the Ewing theory, like i- in reverse and, uh, a- and four.
20:35
But I, I... You like to play, like, contrarian narratives, and I think that's more what it is. Like, pe- people think, like, her not being in Chicago is gonna be bad now, and her being in Atlanta's gonna be better.
20:47
I think the numbers are, uh, a little bit off. Can we, can we get a prop on will she shoot 35% from the field this year? [laughs] See if Chris wants to hang that prop for us. Oh, right. Yeah. Yeah.
20:57
She's a, she's a, she's a rebounding machine, just throws it up there, gets her- She's fantastic [laughs] at rebounding. She is. Um, and save the date, by the way, everybody.
21:04
We should be expecting the save the date invitations on the, uh, Todd and Dijonai Wishnev wedding coming up very soon. Oh, looking forward to that one. Looking forward to that. That's a good one. Looking forward to it.
21:12
I'm sorry, I interrupted you. What's your other play now? No, no, no. I'm gl- I'm glad you did interrupt- Yeah... because people are probably tired of hearing me ramble on.
21:19
Uh, I, I played, uh, Chennedy Carter, the sixth player of the year, uh, now in Atlanta. Uh, last time we saw her in 2024, she averaged 17 and a half points a game.
21:30
Missed last year, but now she's in amongst an embarrassment of riches, uh, with the Aces, the best team in the league. She's gonna come off the bench and be in a great situation.
21:39
Uh, she is the short shot, I believe, at that price to win that award. But, uh, she gives Vegas an unbelievable offensive option, uh, off the bench. So, uh, that was my, uh, my one WNBA awards play.
21:51
Yeah, the Dream minus three inside joke is, uh, we use that now as a past post- [laughs]... on our group exchange. Todd famously, "Oh, by the way, I, I have the-" Just, just, just to piss off Fez?
22:01
"I have the Dream minus three," the Dream won, the Bad Morale lost. So now whenever someone says something after the fact- Is that still available?... we're like, "Is Dream minus three still available?"
22:07
[laughs] It's our- That's pretty good... it's the inside joke now. Really good. Really good. Yeah. Um, okay. So w- by the way, Bear Bets Pod, we don't do this enough. How often do you do that a week?
22:19
We- we- week- weekly now. O- o- once a week now. Uh, and then once football season starts up, I'm sure we'll be back on the, the three times a week, uh, schedule as well.
22:28
Monday, Monday, Thursday, Friday, which'll, uh, whi- which'll be fun. But by the way, Kelly, another special numbers game investigation, uh, shows that the PGA Championship is next week at Aronimink. That is correct.
22:40
That is correct. It's, uh, you know, only on- Kelly... the heels of back-to-back, uh, back-to-back signature events. Do we have- Man, what a great schedule. Do we have a play or- But tell me why- Yeah...
22:51
tell me why I should hate, or tell me why I shouldn't bet or should bet, uh, Bryson DeChambeau at 16 to one, uh, to win. You look at the kind of the course comps for Aronimink. Yep.
23:03
The, the two common ones that come up, Winged Foot and Pinehurst number two. You know what those two courses are? The courses he won his two majors. Mm-hmm. So, uh, it's a classic type course like that.
23:14
Now that all the LIV stuff is out in the open, like you don't have to be hiding it and being just d- d- just, just bundled by it and being angry. Like, maybe he just comes out and plays great. Yep.
23:27
I, I, I le- uh, look, I, I don't hate it at all, and, uh, I'll tell you though, Chris, it was the, uh, the name that jumped out to me at the same exact number because of similar things that they could do off the tee.
23:36
Cameron Young. It was like [laughs] why is he still 16 to one? He's been really good. Yep. So I'm there with you. There with you. You want- Yeah. We'll, we'll see what happens this week in two at, uh, at Quail Hollow.
23:46
Gill, could you, uh, could you a- I wanna do the old could you ask the, uh, another guest a question. I wanna know, uh, from Stormy, being that she's dialed into the NHL playoffs and really- Mm-hmm...
23:57
uh, familiar with the, uh, the Golden Knights, why should I not, uh, bet the Anaheim Ducks plus 140 to win this series? Because they've been the better team. Okay. Ooh. S- question is submitted and will be asked.
24:06
Let's go. The not so mighty Ducks. Wow. I don't know how she's gonna take to that question, but we'll ask her that question. Okay
24:13
Anna, why should- By the way, those jerseys the other night looked like a combination of vomit and diarrhea. [laughs] Okay. Stale orange Jell-O down and ready to fall. Okay, that's... Thank you, Chris.
24:22
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort and Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Betland. My little buddy, Kelly Betland.
24:40
Soak it in, ladies. Hey, do we have those, uh, because, uh, we're supposed to have Jordan Sherwood on, UFC 328. Uh, problems with his, uh, he's had to deal with his- It-... children... come up this morning, yep.
24:50
Yeah, they go, I think one of his kids got sick. We hope, we hope his child is better. Uh, and then Rob Moreno just straight up big timed us. He's, he, we're, we're too small for his superstardom at this point.
25:00
That's right. So b- but- First Strike podcast, man. That's right. But he is- We can't compete... he is the star, along with Dave Ross. I don't know who gets top billing anymore.
25:08
Dave, I think Rob's getting too big for you. Oh, I kind of went full toddler mode yesterday, by the way. I know y- you caught some of this conversation that Wyatt and I were having. I didn't realize that, that...
25:18
I mean, Rob Moreno, VSiN OG, and it- Yes... is, on the production side of it, uh, one of the best that we have around here and have had around here since day one.
25:28
But I think he's doing some, some fancy production things with First Strike that I, that I will not be left out on, Gil. Hmm. That was, I mean, Wyatt and I were having a long shots conversation yesterday. Okay.
25:40
Uh, but Jordan did leave behind his plays. He did, yes. Okay. He absolutely did. Main event is, uh, he's going over on Khamzat Chimaev versus Sean Strickland, over two and a half rounds, uh, minus 125.
25:54
He's also taking Chimaev via decision, plus 310, versus Sean Strickland. Uh, that is the main event. This is in Newark, New Jersey tomorrow. Newark? Is it Newark or j- or somewhere else in New Jersey?
26:07
Did I just make up Newark? Yeah, it's in Newark. I didn't think I made that up. A 13-fight event, a large octagon. Chimaev, for as dominant as he's been, uh, I, I guess it's a play on his cardio, right?
26:21
B- is his cardio suspect? Going over two and a half rounds, Chimaev versus Strickland, and again, Chimaev v- via decision. He does think Chimaev gets there in the end, plus 310 versus Sean Strickland.
26:32
Um- I know, uh, real quick, Gil, Zaid Hussein was on w- By The Books, and then also the First Strike podcast. He has a six-figure bet on that, uh, fight, so go check it out. Oh, really? Yeah.
26:43
Those two, Chimaev and Strickland, have trained together in the past. So I would have asked, had Jordan been here, I would have asked him, I was like, "Hey, what's, what's that? How does that impact your handicap?"
26:53
Well, you know- But he's not here, so I can't ask him... I c- d- I g- I'll g- I give you the fight camp que- uh, answers if you want, right? Please, yeah.
26:58
Well, you know, it's, uh, it's always tough going up against someone that you spend so much time training around, but you do get to know kind of strengths and weaknesses, but he knows that about me, too, so we're both gonna try to exploit that about each other.
27:10
Eh, we're gonna see how it ends up in the octagon. Thanks, generic UFC guy. No problem. [laughs] And by the way, we both look great.
27:18
Uh [laughs] That was always Matt Brown's- We both look [laughs] That was Matt Brown's joke, always. By the way, we l- we both look great. [laughs] 'Cause he go, he w- That's right... he would always say.
27:24
You go to UFC fight camps, and it's like you talk to the trainers. "How does the fighter look?" "Oh, best shape of his life. He looks amazing." Um- What else are they gonna say?
27:31
No play from Jordan on the co-main between, uh, Tatsuro Taira and Joshua Van. He, uh, has not given us a play for that. But he is on Alexander Volkov on the money line, minus 150 versus Waldo Cortez Acosta.
27:44
Uh, and he is on Joaquin Buckley as a dog, plus 135 versus Sean Brady. Those are both, those, those fights are the two fights right before the co-main and the main.
27:56
So Chimaev versus Strickland over two and a half, Chimaev via decision plus 310 versus Strickland in the main, then Volkov minus 150 versus Cortez Acosta, Buckley plus 135 versus Sean Brady.
28:06
Your Jordan Sherwood UFC 328 bets. There you go. I am enjoying Matt Brown trying to help us out as well w- figure out what other sports- Yeah... that Chris Felica has come on here and talked about- Oh, yeah...
28:17
that we couldn't remember. And he goes, "Had to have done Olympics, right?" Oh, for sure, Olympics. But I'm like, I'm like, "I can't specifically remember." Yeah, I don't either.
28:24
And then, and then of course, Matt Brown went a step further. He goes, "Quick search of the internet," he says, "I can't find any ev- evidence of it." No, I can't either. But I'm sure, uh, Chris would remember.
28:32
It was a good guess though, Matt. Thank you, Matt. Thank you, Matt Brown. It was a good guess though. Yeah.
28:34
By the way, Chris Felica, off air it should be mentioned, said, "Hey, could you guys go back and start doing Primetime action again?" He says, "I miss it."
28:40
So Chris is gonna submit, [laughs] is gonna submit that to the, to the management. Well, I was laughing. That'll be fun.
28:44
He's gotta, he's gotta find a Tufts win total to f- uh, to go under on because it's LSU under- Oh, yeah... FSU under. Under on the Jumbos.
28:52
All right, to basketball, 'cause we didn't really touch ver- at length on these games- Mm-hmm... tonight.
28:57
Um, again, Killer Sports challenge, contest.killersports.com, where, uh, I see, uh, not only do I see Steve Fezzik in the rear view, but I also see Kyle Akins, Noops Christensen in the rear view, Zach Cohen only one back in the loss column.
29:14
I lead, though. But I see them, I see them lurking. Still, uh, I still have l- what is it, 13 more games to play. I could totally botch this between now and the end. Plenty of time for me to botch this.
29:26
Killer Sports, uh- Man... it's contest.killersports.com. What are you- Kelly Betland not pictured... you're five into this round, three and two? Five, five, and three still to come.
29:37
Yeah, five, I'm, um, no, I'm four and one in this round. Four and one, okay. Yeah. K- Good for you, man. Yeah. I think I'm four and one.
29:42
That's, I'm like, I feel like I'm day off, day on, day off, day on right now [laughs] with how these games are breaking out.
29:47
Fez- Fezzik has much to say about this contest coming up at the top of the hour, um, Fezzik Fridays. So I don't know if I will have a play tonight. Um,
29:59
but as far as the games from a betting standpoint tonight between the, again, these are, uh, these are game three now, we're in Philly for the Sixers and the Knicks, where the f- where the Sixers are one and a half point favorites.
30:12
But we still don't know about Embiid. I'm sure the second Kelly and I leave, we'll get a, we'll get news about Embiid. 10 a- 10:00 AM injury report. 10:01 AM, it's like, "Are those guys off the air?
30:21
Let's give you a report" Uh, so we don't know about Embiid, and we don't, we, we don't really know about Anunoby yet e- e- essentially either We don't. So it's kinda tough. We don't. I can't say anything concrete.
30:32
I would be shocked if he played. I think this is very much- Up two to nothing, yeah... NBA playoff, uh, w- injury reporting of, "Yeah, we're g- let's throw a questionable tag."
30:41
Have you heard VJ Edgecombe's spot-on imitation of Embiid, by the way? Uh, no. It is fantastic. Th- I'll have to check that out. Add that on to the things- Yeah...
30:50
that, uh, VJ Edgecombe's doing amazingly in this, uh, playoffs. I d- I don't know how you approach this game not knowing those two bits of information though. Kinda gotta wait. I, you know, I think Embiid's gonna go.
31:00
I'm gonna wait for confirmation at this point. I do think this is... Josh Hart also, listen, is questionable for tonight. That's interesting. Um, and Mitch- Mitchell Robinson u- upgraded to probable.
31:10
He did miss the last game. He was sick, so I think whatever he was sick with, uh, he'll be okay. This i- I- it's a big swing, right?
31:17
Like, even if, if you're, if you're saying Embiid's in, uh, I mean, this line is telling you Embi- Embiid is playing in Ho Chi Anunobys out. 'Cause if we- That, that, that is definitely what the line is telling you.
31:27
Yeah. Yes. I mean, we were sitting at 10 and a half this last game. It's what, it's what the line is assuming anyway. The line is assuming. Yeah. Yes. Th- th- that's better wording there.
31:35
Uh, so know that if you are going to bet into this right now before knowing that injury information. This is really what this is kinda baking in. Talked about it, uh, a lot with the Knicks when they were at home.
31:45
Okay, Knicks have been one of the great, great, great home teams this year in the NBA. So what does that usually mean? You're not as great on the road [laughs] then, right?
31:53
25 and 20 straight up, 18 and 27 against the spread this season for the Knicks when they hit the road. Couple things just to keep your eye o- out, out for tonight.
32:02
Carl Anthony Towns, we brought this up with the assist numbers. This is five consecutive games now of six assists or more, um, that he's had in the playoffs.
32:10
This, they've really found something with him being able to run offense through him and his distribution. Uh, interesting to see if it keeps up. I'm not, I'm not running to bet props.
32:18
I think it's five and a half is his assist prop, so the books have kinda caught up, caught up to this. If anything, I'd probably start looking under at some point. S- we brought this up yesterday.
32:28
S- 76ers, if they don't get Embiid back tonight, are there gonna be some tired legs?
32:32
Four or five of their starters played over 40 minutes in that last game, and 47 for Maxie, and they're gonna need Maxie, uh, to continue to be great here. I, I do think I will end up on the Sixers.
32:42
I li- if we're talking no O- OG Anunoby and Embiid is back, which I think there is a little bit of a possibility, it was kind of a punt on it with, uh, game two with Embiid, make sure he's ready and healthy to go back at home here, I, I like the 76ers to punch back.
32:55
I still think the talent is there for this to be a long series for the 76ers to get back into it. This, this one to me is, is more interesting, which is the Spurs are five-point favorites now- Mm-hmm...
33:05
at Minnesota in game three. Of course, splitting the first two games. T-Wolves won by two in game one, got blown off the court in game two. Um, again, I'm, I'm...
33:15
I go back to Zach's comment yesterday, doesn't really understand the spreads in these, in this series, and I think there are a lot of people that would look at this spread and, and say to themselves, "Wow, T-Wolves plus five?"
33:25
Sure. I should probably grab that. Um, I feel like, and I don't, I, you know, listen, this is just a Malcolm Gladwell blink thing. I feel like this is gonna split in Minnesota and we will have a de facto best of three.
33:37
Will it be tonight that the Spurs take the two to one lead, or will, or based on the spread anyway, how will it, how will it work out? The total's 216 and a half. You feel like five's too many on the spread?
33:50
We're getting, we're getting there, but I bet the Spurs yesterday. I laid, I laid the three and a half yesterday. We talked about that on the show. Yeah.
33:56
Uh, but that's, it, it ke- it keeps going one direction here, uh, towards San Antonio. I,
34:02
I think you're probably right though of what do we get over these two games, and I think most people, mo- man, most NBA bettors would say, "Okay, zigzag, zig- zigzag. Look at this first game for Minnesota to capture."
34:13
But I think it's probably more likely that second game just of any, any more time they can get these guys to get healthy. And Ant still doesn't look right. We don't know what we're gonna get out of Ayo tonight.
34:23
He's questionable again after leaving that game, uh, game two.
34:27
I think one thing w- watching back that, watching back that game of just the Spurs were such a concerted effort to capture one part of the Minnesota defense that is not that great, and that is in transition.
34:38
They were pushing the ball every time. Over 25% of their possessions started in transition, either off a live rebound, off of a turnover. Think you're gonna see a lot more of that, uh, here tonight.
34:49
The other one that stuck out to me if you're looking at the total, each team only had 86 possessions in that last game. It's pretty low, and Minnesota's gonna do everything they can to drag this down.
34:59
So I think it would be a lean to the under for me on that total. I did lay three and a half with the Spurs, so I guess I would have to say still lean that way. I mean, long protracted series here.
35:10
That could go six or seven. Thunder getting it done against the Lakers. That's obviously a huge thing heading into the potential collision course between the Spurs and the Thunder moving forward. Hockey with Stormy next.
35:21
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:37
Well, I have no way of proving this with sports betting, but this is old tried and true thing, is if you win something that you have no business winning, you end up having, like, two, three weeks of awesomeness.
35:52
Can't prove it. I just know it from doing it all these years. Conversely, if you lose a match or two, or any sport, if you lose a game you're not supposed to win, you have no business losing, and you lose it- Mm-hmm...
36:02
like with tennis yesterday, it's gonna be bad afterwards.
36:05
And so, uh, the big O and three this morning, Pegula, Brian Pointshaver says Pegula ran through her like a hot knife through butter, talking about, uh, Sanmez beat her. 6-4, 6-love, so we lose on the over 19 and a half.
36:16
And then I think Zumhorst got run through too by, uh, Learner Tien as well. So sorry about that. And Danny Bremet Never misses an opportunity to let me know. Thanks, Danny.
36:27
Appreciate it when they win, when you are so not aware or, or available those days. But that's a whole nother story.
36:32
Uh, Scott C: "One point was missing in yesterday's horse wagering discussion, which was great, by the way.
36:37
The implied pick three odds prior to the race on TOL was, were 6.6 to 1, so there was a strong hit in advance, strong hint in advance, pardon me, that the odds would drop.
36:45
Not simple to find, though, especially for the one-time-a-year recreational players." That should be right up Fezzik's alley today. Oh, yeah, he's got much to say about that, trust me. Linda Cardia. Hey, Linda.
36:57
"Kelly, I will not be ignored. Happy Friday, boys." Happy Friday, Linda. That's from Fatal Attraction, the Glenn Close line where she goes, "I'm not just gonna be ignored," like that. Mm.
37:07
Did you say something like that earlier? I don't think so. Or is she, or is Linda wanting you to, like, reach out to her? Oh, no, no, I'm pretty sure, I'm pretty sure I've met Linda. Okay. Linda, soak it in.
37:16
Pretty sure I've met Linda. He's lost 100 pounds. Soak it in. I know how it goes, Linda. Kevin Ryan: "Gil, please ask Fez if he bet the 1,600, uh, to $100 money line on the Thunder over the Lakers, 0-16 to 1.
37:28
It's better odds than his, uh, college basketball number one over number 16 in the tournament." Oh, I think he means minus 1,600 is what he's trying to say, on the Thunder.
37:37
I don't think he did, but Fezzik's got a lot on his mind. You know who else has a lot on her mind? Stormy Bonitatoni joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
37:44
She is, of course, the co-host of Money Moves, which is on the network Monday through Friday. Comes on, let me see if I can get this right, 2:00 PM Eastern, 11:00 AM Pacific, Monday through Friday. Is that correct?
37:54
Yes, that is correct. Uh, she does it with Jonathan Vontobel. They never bicker with each other, I'm told. Stormy joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Hey, Stormy. I will not be ignored. [laughs] Yes.
38:05
Hi, guys. Thank you for having me. I appreciate it. No, JVT and I do not have any back and forth at all on the show. [laughs] Never. Never. Never at all.
38:13
We have a list, we have a, uh, guest submitted question, if you would be willing to field this, from a Christop- Sure... Christopher A. Felica. Does his middle name begin with an A? Yes.
38:21
I don't know why I'd say it with an A. I've heard of him. I've heard of him. Uh, yeah, Anthony. Uh, from Fox Sports.
38:25
He says, uh, "Tell me," let me see if I can get this right, "Tell me why I should not take the Anaheim Ducks," uh, Anaheim Ducks, yes, "plus 140 series price adjusted against the Golden Knights," your Golden Knights.
38:38
What say you? I wish I could give you a reason not to, to be honest with you.
38:43
Like, this is, the pricing in this series feels so off to me, because it genuinely seems like a coin flip for the entirety of the series, but Vegas has been outplayed in just about every period to this point.
38:57
They could very easily be down two games to none right now against Anaheim.
39:01
We're fortunate to get that game one win, and I think a lot of Ducks fans will look to the controversial no-call on the icing that ultimately led to the go-ahead goal for Vegas, and things change there for them to win game one.
39:13
But I wouldn't fault anybody for playing Anaheim in this series.
39:16
I wouldn't fault anybody for thinking Anaheim's gonna go up two games to one tonight with the win in Anaheim, because they have looked faster, they have looked more dominant, they have had significantly more puck possession to this point.
39:28
Like, even with what they've done in net, like, sure, give their goalie credit, but they're selling out in front of their goalie to eliminate scoring chances when Vegas has been in their zone in the limited opportunities they've had.
39:41
I really [laughs] like everything that I have seen from the Anaheim Ducks to this point.
39:45
The only thing, oddly enough, that they've struggled in is the power play, which was their biggest strength, arguably, in the first round against Edmonton, where they were clicking at a 50% pace.
39:53
They haven't been able to do anything against Vegas's PK, but that's about it. Uh, I, we had Jonathan Davis on. We all know and love Jonathan. We love him.
40:00
I, I sort of asked him, "Hey, if the Golden Knights," Golden Knights were up one to nothing at the time.
40:05
"If the Golden Knights were able to advance past the Ducks and avala- the Avalanche, obviously get to the Western Conference Finals as well, what the series price might be," and I'm not trying to ask you to be an oddsmaker, but I was surprised by his answer, 'cause he, he had the Avalanche as, in my opinion, only a minus 160 favorite.
40:23
It's gotta be higher than that, right? I agree. Yes. Yeah. It would have to be. I would think.
40:28
Like, I think whoever, whoever gets through this series, Anaheim or Vegas, they have the potential to get dog-walked against the Colorado Avalanche. They're that big of a, they're just that big of a wagon.
40:40
They feel inevitable to me. They're that good. Um, but against Vegas specifically, it's interesting, coming into this series, I did like Vegas better.
40:50
Um, I thought, especially after what they were able to do against Utah, and Utah and Anaheim have a lot of similarities. They're younger, they're fast.
40:58
Anaheim's maybe a little bit of a bigger version of them, but Vegas was able to figure out the Mammoth the back half of that first round series. They haven't shown that in this set yet against the Ducks, and
41:09
if they were to continue to play like this against Colorado, that's a recipe for disaster, in my mind. So no, I, I agree with you on that one, Gil, and I, uh, we love our boy JD. Yes, we do.
41:21
He's doing a great job with everything. Um, I think it would have to be a higher price than that.
41:26
Um, last Golden Knights question, but you, uh, w- we make a big deal, so John Tortorella, the, i- is, you know, becomes the coach, as only hockey does, right, late into the hockey season.
41:36
This is just a very NHL type of thing. It's like, "Oh, we're five games away from the playoffs. Sure, a coaching change. This'll work." You're, you know, you're about as close to the team as anybody I know.
41:45
Um, you obviously, as a sideline reporter, a side, or, or s- I should say for ESPN, both college football, but also in hockey, you take in the team that way, but you're around the Knights in general.
41:56
Is this just something we talk about in media as, like, this narrative that fills time, like, "Oh, coaching change. It really, it really shows on the ice. Look at their record" Or is it just kind of confirmation bias?
42:09
Is it a thing or not a thing, I guess, is what I'm asking. Truly. I guess it de- depends on the situation, but here in Vegas, I, I know so many of us were, were shocked from the standpoint of-
42:21
Bruce Cassidy was a coach that just took you to the Stanley Cup final a couple years ago, and you won, right? Yeah. There, there, a lot of this roster is still largely the same and [laughs] has experience together.
42:31
You know what they're capable of, and yet I do think behind the scenes, over time, Cassidy was somebody who had worn on some people.
42:39
And maybe with that in mind, the game for a lot of those players got a little bit stale, and sometimes you need a different messaging.
42:46
And John Tortorella stepped in there and was that different voice, and was able to change the temperature of things, and got them to play more to their capabilities.
42:57
Whether it was a, an aggressiveness, a pace thing, he's not afraid to mix things up.
43:01
He has also, what I thought has been really interesting about John Tortorella so far in his experience, is that he's, he knows what he doesn't know as well.
43:09
And if he doesn't feel like he's the right voice to get through to someone, he has a good collection of people that he can bounce those thoughts and opinions off of, and has been able to push the right buttons largely at the right times for this team.
43:22
So all of that to say, yes, I've been very complimentary of, of Anaheim, and I think rightfully so for the way that they've played in this series, but it also wouldn't surprise me if Vegas does extend this, right, and still make this a long series between the two because of exactly what I'm talking about and the way that John Tortorella has been able to seemingly get to Vegas and, and understand their leaders and how to get the most of them, especially late in games.
43:49
I ask this every time of every hockey guest, and I'm gonna keep asking. I think I asked it of you last time you were on. I'm gonna keep asking until one of these teams loses. Carolina's 7 and 0 now to start the playoffs.
44:00
Uh, and, uh, excuse me, the Avalanche are 6 and 0. The record is 9 and 0 to start any playoffs, the Edmonton Oilers in 1985. I am secretly rooting, Stormy, for 12 and 0 versus 12 and 0. I really am, because this is...
44:11
It's the most random sport in, in the playoffs, just the way the bu- the puck bounces.
44:16
So anything can happen historically, and so the fact that you not only have one, but two of these teams doing this, is pretty incredible to me.
44:23
Do you think one of them gets to 9 and 0 at least, um, or both at this point? Is... Are these two teams, Carolina and Colorado, that dominant? I think they're...
44:34
It feels like, at least to me, that they're on a collision course for the Stanley Cup final right now, and this is coming from somebody who has been obsessed with the Canes for years and years and years, always thinking it's the season it's gonna happen, that they're gonna get over the hump and win in the Eastern Conference final and make the cup.
44:47
They never seem to do. I've wasted so much freaking money on this team, it's insane. [laughs] Yet I'm buying back in once again, I think especially because of the youth on the other side with Buffalo and Montreal.
44:57
Um, I think the Canes get the sweep, so they'll get to eight.
45:02
Um, and then game one at home in Raleigh, where they've been historically so dominant for, I mean, going back, what, seven years now, they've been awesome at home. So I could see them reaching that mark.
45:12
I just told you my thoughts [laughs] on the team that comes out of the Pacific division against Colorado. So, but I don't know if Colorado gets the sweep on Minnesota just yet. Maybe that's a hot button item.
45:23
I, I think Minnesota is a very good and capable team that hasn't played to their capabilities. I think they should get at least a game in the series with the Avs. We'll see.
45:31
But of the two, I think Carolina the most likely to get to nine. Stormy, we appreciate it. Kelly, tell, tell Stormy on air what you said off air to her. Tell her. Your hair looks fantastic.
45:40
[laughs] You ready for the game? Looks fantastic. You, you ready for the big show? I washed it, guys. [laughs] Pretty, kind of a big deal. [laughs] Thank you. [laughs] Kind of a big deal. Your hair looks great, too.
45:48
Are you using a blow-dryer now? I- I don't know what it is... always use a blow-dryer... you've got something going on here. Blow-dryer- Oh... different products, you know, s- lot of things going on up there.
45:54
You two should- Look at you... you two should have a show, just talking about this stuff. Hair podcast. Hair podcast. Boom. Stormy and Kelly. Thank you, Stormy. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys. Thank you so much.
46:02
Stormy Buonantony, everybody. B-U-O-N-A-N-T-O-N-Y if you wanna check her out on Twitter. Money moves coming up an hour after we're done, after Prop Points, Stormy and JBT.
46:14
Fezzik Fridays next on A Numbers Game right here at the Sports-
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