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May 8, 2026
A Numbers Game | May 8, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | May 8, 2026 | Hour 3
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46:16
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Transcript
0:00
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0:57
the sports betting network. The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
1:11
Hour number three of a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game+, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. Gil Alexander.
1:20
Kelly's behind the glass, uh, because Steve Fezzik is, uh, about to happen with Fezzik Fridays. Real quick, the tweets. Uh, Colin Murphy, "I'm so sorry for opening that positive regression can of worms.
1:32
I regret sending that tweet now. Hopefully, my tweeting experience has done positive regression." [laughs] Okay. Uh, Trojan Ram, "Yo, I thought this was supposed to be a classy show.
1:40
I tune in late and the first words I hear out of Felika's mouth is vomit and diarrhea. I expect this kind of language on Follow the Money, but not on the Numbers Game."
1:47
I'm sure, sure it happens from time to time e- everywhere. Lionel G. Williams, "Good morning, Gil and Kelly. I heard your take on Harden and I completely agree.
1:54
What about Evan Mobley scoring nine points and grabbing one rebound? What's his excuse? Just a horrible game." Um, Brian Point Shafer, "Listening to Philly radio right now.
2:03
Philly reporter came on the radio, said from what he's hearing is that Embiid is highly unlikely to play today. Shaking my head. The process is over."
2:11
And Kevin Ryan, "Gil, you and Kelly are still the clubhouse leaders in VSiN show pairing, but Stormy and JVT are on your heels. They are an awesome pair." Yes, they are.
2:19
Uh, hope everybody tunes in and listens to them every single day, as I do hope you listen to Steve Fezzik, the star of Fezzik Fridays. Let's go.
2:27
[upbeat music] Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Fezzik Fridays.
2:37
Starring Steve Fezzik, the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest back in the day, and he's won many contests since. How are you, sir? I don't know if you've noticed, but JVT- Yeah... is looking good.
2:48
[laughs] He, he l- did a whole workout thing, lost tons of weight. Oh, yeah, I, I was like- Yeah...
2:52
Kelly, you know, was, is, is the superstar, but JVT right on his heels, so I might tune into that show just to check him out. Just- He's looking so good... [laughs] just to check him out 'cause he's looking- Yep.
3:02
Well, it's a different kind of show, Steve, but okay. Whatever your reasons are, it's fine.
3:05
Uh, let's start with, let's start with yesterday's appearance, thanks to Bill Krackomberger, of Paul Matias, who came on, spent a couple segments with us talking about the computer-assisted wagering
3:17
debacle, can we call it? Or, or just, just nightmare that's happening in horse racing. You had some comments on it. Yeah. Let me caveat this. I don't bet horses. I know nothing about horses. There we go.
3:28
That's your segment, boys and girls. However- Yeah... I know a whole lot about advantage gambling, and in general, and a lot of people are really upset about the CAWs that are able to bet right at post.
3:39
Now, I don't understand this analogy at all, where they're talking about it, it, it would be like, you know, a line's minus seven and be able to lay minus five and a half. I- in many ways, it's the opposite.
3:49
It's the opposite. I agree with you. It's like- Yes... instead of being able to lay minus seven, it's like you have to lay minus nine, okay? And here's why. The more money you bet on a horse, the worse the odds get.
3:59
Imagine this. So w- we'll u- we'll use an example of a typical horse race. So you bet a horse at eight to one, right?
4:05
And you bet your $10,000, and like, ah, that's probably gonna compromise my, the odds I get a little bit, right? And then I'm gonna bet him again at m- at seven to one, but guess what?
4:14
Now the eight to one, it keeps dropping. The more money you bet, so this shows how much money these people are making because they're willing to totally ruin their, um, rate of return on their initial bets.
4:27
So instead of getting eight to one, they're, they're bringing it all the way down to five to one on every bet they make on a horse.
4:33
But the key here, and that shows how profitable they are, because obviously, if they just bet half, the horse would only drop to plus 650.
4:39
It really doesn't matter whether they b- in my opinion, whether they bet it early or late. I mean, they're tipping their hand a little bit.
4:45
But the bottom line is, any horse that is a break even horse, these computer groups are going to bet, why? Because they get a 10% rebate. A rebate, yes. Win or lose.
4:56
Now, maybe it's a little bit less than 10, but I'm just gonna use 10 by example. Mm-hmm. So how good is that? Um, when you get a 10% rebate, win or lose, that's like doing 20 cents better.
5:06
So you, if, if you had like a p- a horse that was pick 'em, you bet 'em plus 100. They essentially are betting that horse plus 120 in terms of their odds. Right. So they're breaking even...
5:16
No, th- th- they're, they're, they're, they're basically losing betting plus 100, but they are cleaning up plus 120 because they're es- essentially, the horse is gonna win a little less than half the time.
5:28
You're, you're right that the sp- that the sports betting analogy, although I think people understood it, you're right, it was a little bit wrong because it's, uh, the sports betting equivalent would be like, let's say you put in a play at minus seven, and then you find out later you got minus nine, right?
5:42
That's the, that's the difference. Uh, the, and the more you bet- Yeah... the worse your number's gonna be on the bets you made earlier in the week. Right. That's right.
5:49
And the, and the part of the explanation that I think, again, for sports bettors that I think gets lost, that I, I don't, that I don't think, that, that I don't think was made also is there's no such thing as in-...
6:02
in, uh, in-race betting in horsing. It doesn't exist, right? There, they're not b- you're, it doesn't exist. There's no betting while the horse race is happening. I think they do it for the Triple Crown.
6:11
They try to, actually. Okay, but, but in this case- But with micro limits. Yeah... but in this case- Mm-hmm... eh, what the, what's the deal? That there's a delay in, in the reflection of those bets. Yes.
6:23
So that's what's happening, and so I guess, like, that's a little detail that is not... Yeah. So, so maybe, maybe they would make everyone happy to say all these CAW guys gotta bet, like, five minutes before post.
6:32
So at least if for, for s- for the common bettor that's betting- Yeah... they'll know ex- almost exactly what the odds will be. But it's not gonna change anything. Not gonna change.
6:39
You're not gonna get any, any good, for the most part. There's exceptions to the rule, and there's carryovers and Pick 6 and things like that. But op- opposite that, uh, you're not gonna win. So you know what?
6:49
For, in my opinion, I think these tracks are doing the correct thing, just maximizing the volume that they get from these groups, and that way they'll be profitable.
6:58
And I'm not an expert at all on this, but I think as far as ju- just the guy, the bread and butter old school guy that comes to the track, make it a better experience for him. I don't know what you need to do.
7:08
Be like the South Point. Make it like s- like any, like when you go to the viewing rooms at the South Point, unbelievably great. It's an experience. It's an experience.
7:16
And, and that's the way to preserve these customers. And you know what? And I would tell everyone, if you love horse racing, bet your $2 and have a great time. Yeah.
7:22
But don't go in there thinking you're gonna be able to win. You're n- you're going to lose. You are, without the rebates, you're gonna lose. But this is a, this is a sport that you can in- that you can even predict.
7:31
You can see it dying before your eyes, right? Unlike, so horse racing, boxing, baseball, huge in the '70s.
7:38
I'm not sure anybody in the '70s, correct me if I'm wrong, anybody who was, who was adult then, would've said, "Oh yeah, these sports are not going to be, in the future, what they are now."
7:49
You can see it with hors- horse racing. In other words, whatever it's been diminished since then, being diminished even more. 'Cause if you go to those South Point events, the average age is deceased, right? H- 100%.
8:01
It's like the movie Other People's Money with Danny DeVito. Yeah. Where, like, someone says, "Oh, you know, if this happens and that happens, you know, we're gonna rebound."
8:10
And, and Danny DeVito says, "Your company is dead." Yeah. You know, "Even if the dollar does this and the yen does that and the infrastructure does the other thing, you're still gonna go bankrupt. Why? Fiber optics.
8:23
You know, new technology." And bottom line is horse racing is just, like, too far behind with the, uh, the g- the cr- it's cr- gambling's critical, but their takeout's the same as keno.
8:34
It's the gambling, and that's that Triple Crown point I made yesterday, which is, again, the casuals only care about the Triple Crown. The only thing I'm, I'm fascinated by in horse racing is the Triple Crown.
8:43
It's the only thing that historically I can latch onto. If that is not a thing anymore, wh- where's the, where's the contact point?
8:50
Malika's just upset because he was ready to bet against that golden horse in the Preakness. You can read between the lines there. Get back his Renegade Losers money.
8:58
You got some, uh, some plays for us, which we will get to. You have some thoughts on the, uh, killer sports NBA playoff challenge. We'll get to those as well.
9:05
But, uh, before we, uh, let them die entirely, a requiem for border towns. [laughs] "Borderline" Madonna song. Um, "Keep pushing me- My, I think, I think that's my favorite Madonna song, by the way. Right. "Borderline."
9:16
"Keep pushing me to the border." So all around the state of Nevada, there are border towns. You go north, Idaho, Jackpot, Nevada. You go, um, to, uh, obviously Lake Tahoe is a border town. It's, like, eight miles away.
9:30
Primm is closing- Primm... in southern Nevada. So unfortunately with Primm, um, why are they closing down? I really think it used to be that no one could gamble in California.
9:42
They would drive out, and they, like, the second they got there, the degens would be like, "Oh, I gotta, I gotta get down bets." And even people would make sports bets.
9:49
They just would drive to Primm, get down, and turn right around and go home. Not even come to Vegas. But now with gambling everywhere, it's not as big a deal, so there's not as much of a demand.
9:59
Hey, I used to drive to Mesquite, which is on the Utah, southern Utah border, uh, and Arizona, and I would drive to Primm, like, every Saturday morning just because they had an independent sportsbook run by a woman.
10:11
Glynis, uh, did a great job running it. And it wouldn't be unusual, USC would be a 21-point favorite. They'd be 23 and a half right before the game kicked off in Primm because- Wow...
10:22
of all the Southern California money. Oh. Or the Lakers. The same thing. When the Lakers were really good- So you could fade, you could fade California teams. Exactly right. So, and, and- Yeah...
10:32
you always got just such unique numbers. This was back when there was over 30 independent operators in Nevada. Now in Vegas it's down to 10 and dropping. What was that, what was that other town you used to go to?
10:44
Oh, so Wendover. So when- Wen- Wendover. Uh, you know, so I'm, it's like The Godfather, you know? I'm getting chased all out of Nevada, in southern Nevada. BF Gil Lupo's kicked me out of the Stardust.
10:54
Other people are upset. I'm playing all these advantage parlay cards. [laughs] And I'm like, "The Godfather doesn't have that muscle he used to have where he used to come in in the early '90s and do whatever he wanted."
11:04
And so I started exploring. So I went up to Reno, all right? And, like, Baldini's and John Ascuaga's Nugget. And Chris Andrews I think was running the, um, Cal Neva, and had some great success against them.
11:15
Those guys don't hold a grudge, though. But they're starting to get unhappy with me. [laughs] And then finally, I'm, I'm sure if you apologize to Dennis Taylor you get your job back at In-N-Out Burger, Mr. Fezzik. Yeah.
11:25
I know. Fast times. Fast times. Uh, but in Wendover it was like going back to the 1960s in terms of sports. It was like nobody knew anything. They were paying on four team NFL teaser, six points, teaser cards. Yeah.
11:39
Four to one. Not three to one, you know? The four to one. It was like getting each leg bet, each, each two team or better than even money. And, like, the 17 parlay was 120 to one. Um, uh, there's only 128 combinations.
11:54
So if you hit 50 and a half percent, you had the edge. And it wouldn't be unusual, a spread would be two and a half, and they'd put plus three and a half on the parlay card. It was the greatest boondoggle ever.
12:06
And we actually played up there for, like, almost half a season, and basically broke even, won a little bit, and then one weekend we annihilated them, and they wouldn't pay us.
12:14
And then the, the, the Gaming Commission had to get involved. Had to, and you, and you got paid. Half a million dollars. That Gaming Commission came on, and they, they accused us of everything pos-...
12:21
possible that we were doing wrong. And the Gaming Commission says, "Well, did these guys just start playing last week?" And they're like, "No, they've been playing all year."
12:27
So they had no problem with anything any of us were doing until we won, and then they cried like little, you know what? You got paid, you got paid? Yeah. You did it then. Absolutely.
12:38
I, I wasn't actually there the big weekend, so my, my, my buddy Ryan and Lisa White took, took the pay.
12:42
You think, you think with all these friends you made around town here in modern day, are you glad that you weren't alive at a different time when you would get backroomed? Oh, I wouldn't get backroomed.
12:50
I'd be in an Iowa cornfield with the [laughs] Or that- Never to be seen again. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
13:01
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13:09
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13:17
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
13:33
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13:44
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13:47
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14:01
Adam Berg, Zach Cohen, everybody does such a great job on those. Matt Humans. Head to vsin.com/subscribe. Use promo code PRO. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe.
14:12
Somebody asked earlier if you bet the, uh, OKC Thunder minus 1600 'cause you, you enjoy bets like that. You did not? I don't recall. I'm not 100% certain.
14:19
Sometimes they put up offers, like on exchanges, and I like [laughs] like, "What's this?" All of a sudden, like, like I, I, I won a little money or I lost a whole lot. You did. It happens.
14:28
I, I have not lost a really big favorite since Purdue three and a half years ago, famously with the minus 4500. You got close on one the next week, right? Seton, Seton Hall. Yeah. I, I think it was Seton Hall.
14:39
It, it, it was a DePaul game where someone- Yes. Yes. Oh my goodness, yes.
14:43
Scott C., um, "There are horse tracks such as Santa Anita and Del Mar, uh, and, uh, the NYRA that can, that discontinue computer-assisted wagering, win pool wagering at two minutes to post, CB.
14:55
That way we see the odds drop earlier, which is helpful." Chris of St. Barts, "Bummed to miss you in person next week.
15:00
Gil, for you and Steve, name me a downtown breakfast place, not named Saginaw's or the coffee shop at, at the Cowl?" Is that what you said right there? Thanks, guys. Breakfast place recommendation for Chris of St. Barts.
15:11
Sorry to miss you too, Chris. I'm not so good with breakfast places. If you do like buffet, there's a, there's a downtown buffet at Main Street Station. Oh. It's the only one- Okay...
15:19
so you can pretty much get anything that you want. Where, where, where was that old-school hotel you took us to? Boy Kelly. Oh, El Cortez? El Cortez. El Cor- You know, El Cortez is, Bugsy's restaurant is fantastic.
15:29
Um, Magnolia's is a nice little coffee shop in the Four Queens. By the way, Hugo's Cellar is, like, an old-time Vegas, um, um, standard in Four Queens, which is a dump, but it's a great restaurant still, Hugo's Cellar.
15:42
Okay. For dinner. There you go. Um, and Chris H. says, "I've certainly driven to Reno and South Lake to fade NorCal teams.
15:48
Also definitely placed a bet on Army minus seven and a half, even at the Wendover Peppermill years ago when everyone else had it at minus 120." There you go. He, he knows of what you speak.
15:57
Game recognize game, as the kids say. All right, um, parlays have come up here in recent, uh, days, as they do most every day or week on, uh, sports betting media.
16:10
We always bring you up when Mark Borchardt, our buddy who's super smart in baseball, right? Fezzik is, St- Steve, he's always upset because he's like, "He's this really smart guy.
16:19
He's got all these great baseball numbers, and then he always puts out a parlay at the end of the show."
16:22
Would you like to have, because we haven't done this in a while, would you like to rail against parlays for a second? Okay, I'm gonna come in in favor of Mark in a lot of the shows in terms of entertainment, all right?
16:31
Because if somebody, if everybody wants to get their steak well done with ketchup- Ugh... and you're the chef, have the Heinz ready and, and have the grill turned up high, okay?
16:42
Because that's what, if people like parlays. So even I do some shows and, like, with Ross Tucker, Even Money, and, and, and I'll give out parlay, a, a, a parlay bet each week.
16:53
But I'll say, I'm not personally betting this. All right, the reasons to bet parlays. I'm not anti-parlay.
16:57
In fact, like I just talked about, throughout the '90s, all I did was play 17 parlays and 10 team parlays and 16 parlays on these parlay cards because the reasons to play parlays, you get better numbers- Mm-hmm...
17:08
than you would normally get. Correlation, um, home team, home dog to under in baseball is, like, a classic good correlation to play. Um, weather, like two team, two teams are in the same city, it's supposed to rain.
17:20
Explain that, the home dog to under because you don't get the, the at-bat minions. Good chance you don't get the bottom of the ninth. Yeah. So it shortens the game to eight and a half innings. Mm-hmm.
17:26
Plus, just in general, a dog to an under- Yeah... has some correlation, like when the Yankees play, um, et cetera. Um, circumvent limits, parlay a whole bunch of different things together. Look like a Dumbo, look stupid.
17:38
Books love people playing parlay, so there's reasons to play parlays. Books will, on the inside, will tell you, "Throw in a parlay, look dumb." Exactly. Yeah.
17:46
However, the idea that you're not laying minus 300 in vigorous, all right, by putting in a parlay, I'm like, "Yeah, now you're laying minus 320," 'cause you could have laid minus 292 on a betting exchange.
17:58
But when you put that team in with something else, now you no longer have that option, so you don't get the best price. And the most egregious thing is when the games aren't at the same time. So UFC is a good example.
18:09
All the time I hear this, like, "Take the two biggest favorites and parlay the two minus 300s together."
18:14
I'm like, "Well, why not just lay the minus 278 after it wins or reinvest it on the other dude minus 286," you know?...
18:21
shopping around at the ProfitXes, um, at the other, you know, uh- The pre- the prediction markets have really driven this, this point home. And that's the thing.
18:29
People, like, keep thinking that it's, it's n- it's 2006 still, and the markets have become so much more efficient with these prediction machines, with the, the shortening of the bid and the ask on all this stuff.
18:40
So on a traditional game on Pick 'Em, day of the game, baseball, minus 103, minus 102. Like, that, that's the pricing you're seeing. Nobody's gonna win laying minus 108. Nobody.
18:51
I can't find anybody in the world that can win against a 15-cent baseball line the day of the game. Now, overnights- Mm-hmm... like Base Winner gives out his plays overnight. I love that.
18:59
You know, he's, he, uh, he's, he's had some good evolution there. He's getting his plays out earlier and earlier, and certainly it's different for props, for first halves, for things like that. Look at Todd Wisniewski.
19:10
How many, how many plays does Todd give out a, on, on a game? Maybe, maybe 5%, w- at most, versus pitcher strikeout, first five innings, team totals, live, things like that.
19:20
I, I feel compelled always when we do the parlay thing, though, to point out two things. One, you are absolutely right about you're not gonna get the best price on every leg at one shop, right?
19:28
That's, that's the th- thing that you're m- the most right about to me. But the, the one thing that I always wanna point out, though, is 'cause your, your brain works a certain way.
19:37
I think there is a, there is a little carve-out, though, that there's a bunch of folks that do parlays that I don't think we can quantify that they would've lost more had they not done 'em.
19:49
In other words, what I mean by that is, and this is, this is something we can never wrap our brains around.
19:53
They'll have a f- let's say they'll have a five-leg parlay for a day, and they'll hit the first one, or they'll hit the second one also.
20:00
That will prevent them from losing money on other bets while that action still exists.
20:06
So I do think it's not the most black-and-white thing in the world, because I think there is some, there is some unquantifiable little cottage thing in, in there where we're not really grasping how it might save some people.
20:19
Well, I can quantify it. Their volume goes way down. Yes. So they bet, they bet $10 on- Right. That's what I mean... six minus 800s.
20:26
It's not like they're gonna be able, that they, they, they'd have the discipline to say, "I'd like to bet $4 to win, you know, 38 cents on, on this favorite," you know, over and over.
20:34
So because their wage, even though the, a- a- and the house theoretical hold really isn't very high, even if you're making, like, horrible bets.
20:41
Even if you're laying minus 300 and you should be laying minus 260, the theo hold is, i- i- is negligible compared to other areas of sports betting. So because of that, you're right.
20:52
It's a, it's a very cheap way to lose just- Yeah... a little bit and not get- That's right... nearly the disadvantage you think, because if you're laying 300 and you're really laying- You're losing less. That's right...
21:01
280 minus 285, you're not taking that much the worst of it in a theoretical basis. Do you have plays for us today, Stevie? I'm told- Yeah, let's-... late-breaking plays. Yeah, let's, late-breaking plays.
21:09
Let's, let's go ahead- [laughs]... and do two, and we're gonna do two- Yeah... MLB season wins, then I'm gonna explain it. Oh. And so the very first one, let's set it up Right Angle Sports style.
21:17
[laughs] Let's set it up. Let's go St. Louis Cardinals over 77 and a half. Oh. Cardinals over 77 and a half. Go. We are betting the Cardinals over 77 and a half. I know the run differential's, like, zero.
21:29
That'll be- The Cardinals were supposed to stink this year, but they've act- they've actually been good, and I think, and they, they're not gonna be a seller probably at post, because here they are, um, seven games above 500.
21:41
For those of you who are, um, watching the show, you'll know this. For those who are listening, you'll have to bear with me, so be careful here. We're gonna set it up, and then we're gonna play it.
21:49
The Houston Astros over, we're gonna go over 77 and a half. Cancel. Cancel. We are not going over. We are going under. Astros under 77 and a half. I love this bet, and here's why.
22:01
There is no opposition at all with the Astros. Yeah. Early in the year, pre-flop, the Astros were lined in the low-80s. Everybody was ramming and jamming against the Astros to go under, and now they have sucked
22:16
year to date. There's been no- and now, um, they've got an injury that just happened, and they're sitting at, at seven or eight games below, I think eight games below 500. They, they're gonna be a seller at the deadline.
22:28
We're going under. Opposite. We're going under 77 and a half.
22:31
See, [laughs] I'm laughing so hard because, well, first of all, what makes you happier, doing the Right Angle Sports bit with the go or the cancel, or the whole bang bang thing you did with wrestling? Bang bang.
22:40
[laughs] Something's wrong with this guy. Okay, so y- Danny, you- Get rid of the garbage at Houston... you tripped up- I'm the garbage man, and Houston is the garbage this year. Why did I, why did I even bring this up?
22:50
Okay, so you- Bang bang... you tripped up Danny Higgins back there, so I know you tripped up some of the listeners.
22:54
So again, what, what the actual bets are, Cardinals overnight, o- over 77 and a half wins, Astros under 77 and a half wins. Those are the official bets. [laughs] And let me ask you, Gil Alexander. Yes, sir.
23:05
The Card- with the Cards approximately seven games above and Houston seven games below, I might be off by a game, what's the probability that the Cardinals will finish with a better record than the Astros? Oh, very high.
23:17
It, and, and they both got the same number. Yeah. But that, and that shows, like- Yeah... like, if I could do a head-to-head matchup, I would literally happily lay minus 220.
23:26
The Cardinals wound up with the better record. Did you, did you wanna give us another Atlanta Braves division bet again while we're here, or is that too high now finally?
23:33
I, you know, I looked up the, the, the Phillies are playing much better. Yes, they are. And, and [laughs] Atlanta's sitting at minus 700 to win the division.
23:41
So I think it's like that game that, that we used to watch, Card Sharks, where you would advance a higher. You're- Lower. I would go, "Freeze. We're gonna freeze right now with our three Braves bets- Yes...
23:51
at plus 170 to win the division- Good. I'm glad you are... at minus, like, 150 and then minus 270. Now we're gonna freeze." Okay, good, 'cause it's May 8th, for God's sakes.
24:00
I was thinking about just giving it out every week and then saying my documented record on futures is 17 and 0 when they win the division. [laughs] I knew you would.
24:08
Um, Stevie's got more to say, including, uh, the Killer, about the Killer Sports NBA challenge. We will talk about that. And, uh, handicappers, don't trust them all.
24:17
Steve Fezzik, Fezzik Fridays, here on a Numbers Game at Visa, the sports betting network
24:31
The Sports Betting Network Back on a Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. We just got Steve off his, his excited high doing the, the Go Cancel game, courtesy of Right Angle Sports.
24:43
We got tweets beating the book. Bobby Getty's watching, uh, ANG with my father-in-law today. He's also a diehard Skins fan. He said his favorite player was Sonny Jurgensen. Who was your favorite?
24:52
I assume someone on the second-best team of all time, behind the '07 Pats, of course. [laughs] Oh, stop it. You know the '91 Skins would have crushed that team. Give me the Riggins.
25:01
Uh, Riggins, Monk, Clark, Darrell Green, those four. Br- uh, Buyers Well, "Chicago Brewing Company at Four Queens has great beer, wings, and pizza, but yes, Four Queens is a dump."
25:12
Paul Kapus, "I have the Astros under 86.5 pre-flop before the season." There you go. Paul Kapus likes your directional bet. Every 10 days, their number drops another two games. [laughs] Prime Time Leon Sanders, yo.
25:24
Hey, man. "As long as Stevie's playing Mick Foley wrestling personas, have him dress as Dude Love for next week's segment and make it a Love Zone tribute. I've done all I can do. Suck it, Fezzik."
25:33
Is that, is that Brother Love? [laughs] That's what he says. "Suck it, Fezzik." Brother Love used to come out and he'd, he was one of these bad guys.
25:39
He, and, and, and he'd be like, "The Million Dollar Man, Ted DiBiase, loves you. Hulk Hogan does not love you." I don't know what he's doing. I don't know what he's doing. Wrestling people understand.
25:51
All right, Visan Killer Sports NBA Playoff Challenge. It's over. Yeah, oh, stop it. Stop it with this. I know what you're doing. Carl Sack, shout out to him for, uh, doing this for the second consecutive season.
26:02
Ste- Love The Carl Sack... Stevie, you won this last year in its inaugural. You won. Uh, Zach Cohen and Doug Kazerian were tied for second. I finished fourth.
26:13
This year, we are a little more than halfway through this bad boy, and, uh, I see you, Steve Fezzik.
26:19
You're actually not in second 'cause you have 11 losses, we're not really, like, the same amount of games, so loss column is what matters here. Well, nope, plus the games above 500 is the critical component.
26:28
And you're correct, I am in, like, a three-way tie- Yeah... five games above Kyle Aik- A- Akins is there. Kyle Akins, yep. As is Zach Cohen. Zach has a slight advantage- Yes, he does...
26:39
because he is 13 and 0, and that's obviously better than 16 and 11.
26:43
And he's really the wild card here because for me to catch Gilley is gonna be very problematic because we, we're like two horses that, like, run the same- Yeah...
26:53
race, basically, whereas Zach Cohen is like a loose cannon. You just never know where, what he might g- give out on any given game des- regard- That's right... less of the spread on the game. I'm gonna be...
27:02
That's right. I'm a, I'm a good front-runner 'cause I'm gonna play, I'm gonna play by the book, and you love the book. So- I love the book...
27:07
you love the book, so it's gonna be hard for you to catch me, but someone else like Zach, he could catch me. A- and I'll s- I'll say this in terms of contest play is completely different than sports betting. All right?
27:18
You can, you can take a Steve Fezzik who can't name a player. Is James Harden still in the league? Um, and- [laughs]... by contrast, you can take a NBA hardo that knows everything. All right?
27:30
Everything, and is so much more knowledgeable.
27:32
But in the betting markets, and I'll, I'll say it, like, the contest player in a contest is always gonna be a favorite because they're so used to, they know how to play these contests. Yeah.
27:43
Uh, Kelly, what time does the, is the cutoff on these contests? [laughs] These are the sort of things that the contest specialists never get wrong. Yeah.
27:51
I said last year, I was like, "Oh, they, they put us in as, like, to pollute this thing," right? So I, I sort of feel that way about it this year. But you were, what's interesting is that you think... I, I...
28:02
There's still time for me to jack this up, Steve. Let's make no, let's n- make no bones about it. There's 13, I have 13 more picks to make. You don't. I could lose them all. You never know.
28:09
It's like a golf tournament that has- Yeah... two 18-hole rounds. Yeah. And we're, you're like a number seven on your second round right now. So you're going into, into amen corner here.
28:17
What's my price to m- what's my price to win this? Minus 175 field, plus 155. Anyone who thinks that's a bad number, go ahead and contact me.
28:25
I, uh- [laughs] We'll, we'll make a d- we'll m- [laughs] I don't know your tiebreaker, so we'll say a dead heat's just a, a, a break. Anyone who wants the field plus 155, let me know.
28:33
I'd be more than happy to, to, to, to, to... I, I, that's a good number. Minus 175 on me? Yes. Oh, boy. Oh, boy. Oh, boy. You disagree with my line? No, I, I, I'm not saying- I disagree... you're gonna win.
28:43
Minus 175 favorites- Yeah... lose all the time. That's, that's, that's right. Ask the Dodgers when they played the St. Louis Cardinals, who are going over 77 and a half. Go, go on the Cardinals, over. [laughs] This guy.
28:53
[laughs] Uh, all right, uh, by the way, we're having a great time with this contest. Contest.killersports.com if you wanna follow along for daily picks in this contest.
29:02
Again, 20 in the first round, full game ATS or, or, uh, totals, 10 picks full game ATS or totals in the second round, then it's five, then it's three in the NBA final.
29:13
So 38 total picks, and, uh, you're 27 in, I'm 25 in, so we are, uh, we're rounding the bend. Hey, and go to Killer Sports, and a shout-out to Carl Sack. He's
29:24
one of the best, if not the best, NBA handicappers that we know. And buy his picks.
29:30
Like, like, I'm a reluctant, I talk all the time about it's hard to win, it's hard to w- it's not hard to win if you're getting Carl's picks during the season. That's right.
29:38
It's gonna be harder to win during the NBA playoffs- Mm-hmm... where the market's much more efficient.
29:42
But, um, over the next five years, if you get his plays and play every one of them, and, and you're diligent and you get them right when he releases, you will indeed win.
29:51
If you don't win over those five years and I'm still alive, I'll buy you dinner.
29:54
Carl Sack is the only handicapper in any sport that I will follow blindly with his picks, 'cause I have watched him make these picks 'cause he and I used to work for Dr. Bob. I have seen him doing this for a decade.
30:06
Like, this is not some fly-by-night thing, right? Carl Sack- Dr. Bob Sports... Dr. Bob Especially, like, college football, you, I won't even shop so much.
30:14
It's, it's just that Bob has so many picks, I can't play them all. College football season wins? Yeah. Literally- Oh, yeah, release... if he releases, I don't even shop.
30:20
It's like if he says UTEP's gonna suck, I'm playing UTEP. Yep. Under, absolutely. You know, the, the, the, the, the, the best handicapper nobody knows i- is, um, uh, @JBWinsBig. Yes. Jeff Berlin.
30:32
Um, he like put up 100 units, you know? And how does he do it? Well, he's playing NBA props at 5:00 AM. It's hard to get down. Mm-hmm. But the, but the, but those numbers are widely available.
30:42
They're on PropBuilder, they're on FanDuel. He's great. And of course, the great Todd Wisniew. Oh, yes, and Todd Wisniew. On his Discord- He-... he's apologizing for only being up like 18 units on his baseball.
30:53
He's like, "Ah, it's not as, I'm not as good at this as college basketball." Now, that doesn't change the fact that he takes some liberties when playing tennis, and yes, we will, uh, be addressing that, Mr. Wisniew.
31:05
And to quote John Goodman in, um, in, uh, Re- Revenge of the Nerds, you know, "If somebody's like talking as much smack and, uh, having the results that they've had against you, I'd do something about it."
31:20
So we'll see how the tennis goes going forward. I don't know what that, I don't know what that meant, but okay. Remember when they got their butts kicked by a bunch of nerds?
31:25
By the way, uh, AT- the ATP, uh, Todd Wisniew barnstorming tour, we've played in St. Louis, the ATP St. Louis. ATP DC this weekend, me and Todd. Is that right? Fashion. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Is that right? 55.
31:37
The, um, yeah, Wisniew is, um, I would play with some serves. I think that might make a big difference. Yeah. Maybe it will. Instead of the, we've, the, the, when Gil and I play, we play by the rules.
31:49
We hit it back and forth three times. One, two, three, and then the fourth shot is usually like a little bit harder, but never a winner. Like we're, we're very gentleman-like. That's the rules we play by.
32:01
That's not the rules Todd pl- Todd has his own set of rules with his grandstanding, his showboating. Hmm. Well, we're not playing- Be careful... with serves, yes. He's looking for an edge, for sure. Yep. I give you that.
32:11
All right, um, cousin to the contest plays i- are these, uh, sites that are, new sites that are tracking handicappers. You had something to say about that. Fraught with deception possibilities.
32:24
Not deception, but like what could be easier than just t- I'm not gonna mention because so many different places are doing it now, where they say, "You, we've got a list of the 100 handicappers with the best record and it's what they're actually playing.
32:37
There's no phony baloney. These are actual bets they make against books, and we're adding them all up." But the problem is it could be phony baloney, and here's why.
32:47
Um, DraftKings, a book like that, like I just gave out, you know, Houston under 77 and a half, St. Louis over 77 and a half. That's at Caesars. That's a real number. You can bet it. Mm-hmm.
32:57
But it's not like it's at 20 books. Right. It's not like it's readily available, you know, um, and because of that, if you wanted to, you could just not give out anything, but cherry-picked bets.
33:09
Oh, you just gave out some like, like the, the quarterback. You gave out some great bets. Yeah. Like, you, like, like for Atlanta, you got one dude coming off the ACL. Yeah. You know, he's not gonna be starting.
33:19
Yesterday on the show, we, uh, Kelly and I were doing, starting the first game, for, taking the first snap of NFL teams this year. It's gonna be Tua. It's gonna be Tua. Tua was like minus 130-something over Pence.
33:28
It should be minus 200. I agree. Watson- Yeah... uh, Cleveland's still paying him like, like- I agree... what, what, like, uh- Those were the two bets... like $100 million. Yeah.
33:35
So of course Cleveland has to start Watson instead of, um, Sanders. Today we did a race- Should be minus 200... today we did a race to 10 in Major League Baseball in May. Like we, so we, y- you're right.
33:45
These are all, these are all bets that would not get tracked on a site like that, right? Yeah, the Yankees, what a c- what a c- exactly. Yeah, yeah.
33:53
What a great, as long as the you know what doesn't hit the fan tomorrow, they should be in good sh- [laughs]... good shape with, with, with, with Schlitzler? What? Stop, don't even try. Okay.
34:01
[laughs] You're gonna mess it up. Uh, did you wanna say something in, in, uh, in parting that, that is upsetting you, or did you wanna not, steer clear of that? I'll, I'll defer to you.
34:10
Do you think I should address this? Uh, you have a right to defend yourself. I'm, well, I'm just gonna use like, be very careful about, and Jeff Benson and I argue about this all the time. Yeah.
34:18
The theoretical hold I hear all the time, like when there's a big underdog, the straddle becomes enormous. Yes.
34:24
So by example, you can have an underdog 13 to 1, but if you bet the favorite, uh, it, they're like you lay 30 to make 1. That's like a ridiculous straddle. Nobody's gonna win.
34:33
But yet if you look at the theoretical hold on that, it's less than the 4.54%.
34:38
It looks attractive, but low theo hold doesn't mean you're going to win, and the best example I can give, if the true odds should be 20 to 1 minus 2,000 plus 2,000, okay?
34:48
The minus 3,000 bet actually from a theoretical hold perspective isn't so bad because you're gonna get back your money 95% of the time even if you got paid nothing, so the household's way less than 5%.
34:58
But on the dog side, if you had to book it and they only offered the dog side, 13 to 1, they didn't offer the no, well, the true odds are 20, you're getting 13.
35:06
The household suddenly is 33%, so don't be fooled by this low hold where, which is only there because you get your money back. Steve Fezzik, everybody. Fezzik Fridays. Thank you, Steve.
35:18
Uh, Fezzik Sports on Twitter, follow at your own peril. Coming back.
35:21
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Well, Mr., uh, Mr.
35:40
Killer sports contest leader, uh, went 0 for 3 in tennis today, so there's that. Uh, they all lost. Xinyu Wang, uh, Wang Xinyu overnight lost to Alexander Iyala.
35:51
Damir Dzumhur got rolled by Lerner Chin, and, uh, the San Miz/Pegula match was a loss. It went under the total of 19 and a half. So that's what happens.
35:59
Again, yesterday, two brutal losses, defeats snatched from the jaws of victory, and, uh, we go oh and three this morning. So that was not fun. Pick it up, Damir. It's been a, it's a- Get it together...
36:09
and the thing was, last week was fantastic in clay. But no, not this morning. Mariners most wins May plus 90, uh, plus 975. Two and four, let's go Mariners. Here comes the easy part.
36:23
Although the White Sox have not been that easy, but they're at the White Sox starting tonight. That one's still in play. Um, and we'll see if I do, I don't know if I'm gonna have any contest plays tonight.
36:32
Uh, haven't looked yet at what the numbers are in the contest itself vis-a-vis the actual numbers. Good question. But nothing for me right now I haven't looked I have a feeling- You, sir... I will be in on, uh,
36:43
at least one. Oh, really? At least. Although, yeah, I g- have to lay a bad number. I, I laid three and a half for the Spurs yesterday. Uh, that is out to four and a half, five now, so you're right.
36:54
We're gonna have to check that contest number, see if that would be a play for me. But, you know, probably. I've got a lot of plays to make, so probably. And then hockey bet, hockey bet from Kelly. Hurricanes, Avalanche.
37:04
Stanley Cup Final matchup, plus 125. There you go. Well done. Th- th- they haven't lost yet, right? Both these teams. One seven and oh, one six and oh. It's pretty good. I, I w- Last time I checked, that's pretty good...
37:16
I can't wait for mainstream media to finally pick up on the stat starting, like, tomorrow, right? Where they'll be like, "Hey, you know the Edmonton Oilers of 1985 were the, uh...
37:24
Hold the record for most wins to start a playoffs at nine and oh." Yeah, we've been talking about it. I, it's like my NBA translation.
37:30
It just feels like the Oklahoma City Thunder are in both conferences in the NHL and, uh, there's nobody else in their way. So yeah, I'm just gonna play that plus 125 matchup.
37:40
All right, you still have the Cavs to win four to two and the Cavs to win four to three, huh? Still alive. Oh, boy. Not feeling great, but still alive. Still alive. Show me something tomorrow, Cleveland.
37:49
What about these other two? S- still alive. [laughs] Still alive. Need, need Joel Embiid to come back. That would be great. Over five and a half games for the Sixers and the Knicks.
37:58
Tune into Prop Points 'cause I'm sure they'll have the Embiid news at 10:01. I, uh- 1:00, 1:01 Eastern. I really hope he plays, and I cannot wait to watch that game tonight. I think we, I think we got a, eh...
38:09
S- I think that was a great series in front of us, man. I, the injuries suck. How would you feel about a Knicks-Pistons Eastern Conference Final? Does that excite you at all? Eh. Yeah, me too. Eh.
38:19
But, like, I don't know. We kinda knew this was coming. This is why we were going nuts about the Hornets for so long. [snorts] Remember them? Yeah. We need some fresh blood in the mix here.
38:28
I really do feel bad for Will with the Magic one. I think the Magic was... That was... It was a Franz Wagner injury away from happening. It's a Franz. That's what I yelled at the other day.
38:36
It was just like, there, it, there's still... Like, it was a good bet. It was a bet I didn't see. Yeah. You know? And it's just like, what are you supposed to do? That's when the best player's out.
38:43
Chris Velika was on earlier. The Bear. El Oso. A few WNBA plays. Look at this guy. Uh, what we're calling the fade or, or just sort of the anti-Angel Reese plays. Chicago Sky over 18 and a half wins now that she gone.
39:01
Atlanta Dream under 29 and a half wins now that she's there. That's what he's doing, just fading. He's just, he's angry at Angel Reese for, I don't know what's, what's the problem with him.
39:10
Seems s- seems to have a personal issue with her, I think. We should dive into that next segment with him. Yeah. Took me, it took me way too long to figure out, by the way, what this next award was.
39:19
Like, way longer than it should have. Kenny Garet sixth, sixth player of the year. Yeah. 'Cause you can't say sixth man of the year. Right, which makes sense. I don't really know why it took me so long.
39:28
[laughs] A plus, plus 480, sixth player of the year. Sixth player of the year. You could say sixth lady of the year, sixth woman of the year, I guess. That's what I was kinda thinking afterwards. Like, why not?
39:36
Yeah, I don't know. All right. Uh, baseball. Emerson Hancock of the Mariners, AL Cy Young, 80 to 1 from Chris. Emerson Hancock. Soccer bet- He fits right in with the Pearson Cooties. He, oh, no doubt.
39:48
The Cooties and the Hancocks. They, they, they have great family Thanksgivings together. [laughs] Never met folks like me before. Liverpool first half money line, plus 120 versus Chelsea from Chris.
39:59
And Michigan State, he's been sprinkling the, uh, the college football season win totals throughout the spring into the summer. Michigan State under four and a half wins.
40:08
Add that to his Michigan under, his LSU under, and his FSU under. And Colorado and Arkansas he gave out as well. He did text us. Oh, he's under on Colorado. Was under on Arkansas too? Mm-hmm. Wow, an underfest.
40:21
And he said, "Yes, totally I did the Olympics," so add that to the mix. Oh, okay. All right. Storie was on earlier. Storie Bonatony, who is, uh, co-host of Money Moves with Jonathan Von Tobel. I was...
40:32
We were talking to Storie, and I never got around to her actual pick, so bad on m- bad on me. But she's on the Canadian Sabres over five and a half goals tonight. Is that correct, in game two?
40:42
Over five and a half for the Canadian Sabres, game two. And then Nathan MacKinnon to win Conn Smythe at plus 380. Who did, uh, who did Jake Hon have for Conn Smythe that he recommended earlier in the week?
40:53
I can't remember. Was it not MacKinnon? I, I mean, he understands why MacKinnon is at that price he said, but he had one long shot. Now I can't remember. Oh. Folks will remember who listen.
41:03
But, uh, Storie likes Nathan MacKinnon for Conn Smythe. Only thing was there was, there was like eight players from the two teams that I bet to make the matchup in there. That's correct.
41:09
The first six players on the board for Conn Smythe are either Avalanche or Hurricanes. Which led me further to wonder early in the week, should I just not make this matchup bet?
41:18
We'll see if it's dumb or not, but uh, yeah. Two teams that have not lost. Stevie Fezzik. I don't know, uh, if you captured his excitement in doing this whole Right Angle Sports process.
41:27
Oh my God, I was dying laughing in the back. I was dying. I had, I had to get in your ear 'cause it was too funny in the back. [laughs] Da- Danny's doing such a great job.
41:35
I, I, I make his life so much more difficult when I g- when I go in the control room. 'Cause you know, I don't have to worry about it now these days. Right. He's talking their ear off. He's booth- he's boothing the show.
41:44
I'm talking Chris's ear off. He's boothing. He's boothing the show. Or Rob's ear off or whatever. Danny's trying to control things, and then yeah, Fezzik goes and plays that game. And it's like, "Wait, take the graphic.
41:53
Pull the graphic. Take the graphic." [laughs] Fezzik, ultimately Cardinals over 77 and a half wins adjusted season win total. And then he did the fake-out on the Astros, but what he really is betting is Astros under
42:05
77 and a half wins. So there is, uh, the two adjusted season win totals from Steve Fezzik. Um, let me just ask you. Oh, oh, Paul Carr. Pardon me, Paul Carr. Pardon me. Premier League bets tomorrow.
42:16
Liverpool versus Chelsea. He's on Liverpool, minus 115, shop around. Brighton minus one and a half goals, minus 130 versus Wolverhampton. Wolves.
42:27
And then Sunday, Irons, West Ham, Arsenal under two and a half goals, plus 120. Three pack of picks from Paul Carr.
42:34
And then Jordan Sherwood in absentia, as they say at political conventions UFC 328, uh, Khamzat Chimaev versus Sean Strickland over two and a half rounds minus 125.
42:47
Chimaev, uh, via decision plus 310 versus Sean Strickland. That is in the main event. Middleweight fight, main event in Newark, New Jersey. I was like, "Where's this UFC card? Is it Miami?"
42:59
And they're like, "No, New Jersey, Gill." I'm like, "Oh, Miami North." Same thing. Yeah.
43:03
Uh, Alexander Volkov earlier just before the co-main minus 150 versus Waldo Cortez Acosta, and also before the co-main, Joaquin Buckley plus 135 versus Sean Brady. Those are both on the main card.
43:15
Uh, a four-pack of picks from Jordan Sherwood, UFC 328. Hope his, uh, hope his child feels better as well. And Rob Moreno, big time, and us not being on the show, we don't hope that he's doing well.
43:27
We just hope that he's, you know- We don't know what he's doing. We don't know what he's doing. We don't, we don't know.
43:31
Shout out to, uh, Cole Murphy who, uh, tweeted in earlier in the week, "Watch out for one Matt McCarty," who is, uh- has the lead right now at, um, Truist Championship. Okay. Do you have any of him?
43:45
Oh, my tournament's looking terrible so far. Yeah. Yeah. Not looking good. Yeah, it happens. When you bet things every day and every, every week, it happens.
43:55
Uh, okay, NBA, let's get back to it just for a second in our closing two minutes here before we, uh, go off air. The- It's actually really bad. It's funny. What?
44:04
[laughs] I just, like I don't even- Kurt Kitayama one under I think is my best runner right now. It's only seven shots off. Oh. It's good. So you're saying there's a chance. Yeah. Who's in the NBA finals, Kelly Bidlin?
44:15
Hmm. Hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm. This is su- this has been such a moving target when asking this question 'cause on a sports betting show we rarely ever ask the basic simple question.
44:25
W- which your- You know what I hate myself for? Your non-betting friend always asks this. Yeah "Hey, who's winning the NBA championship?" You know what I hate myself for is that I said Knicks all season long- Yeah...
44:33
until like right before the playoffs, and then I became one of those- Now you're back... losers that switched to the Celtics.
44:38
And then it's like, uh, would- would've been cool if you'd just stuck with the Knicks the entire time. You believe it's the Thunder versus the Knicks. Yeah, I do. I do.
44:49
I'd love for it to be the Spurs versus the Celtics, but I am told that is no longer possible. [laughs] It's, it's not possible. Yeah. Um, I feel I still- I'm sticking with the Spurs,
44:58
and I am going to go with the Knicks as well. I just feel like of all, of, of all the iterations of the Knicks, you know how like when we talk about the Sixers and the arc of time that we are- Mm-hmm...
45:06
at Visa, that Sixers team that had, uh, JJ Redick on it. Who was the, the guy, the Italian shooter, the Italian last name shooter? Who? Bella, Bella, Bella Telly. What was his name? Or they had Dario Saric on that team.
45:20
Remember that team was, was incredible, and I always thought that was the best Sixers team in recent memory, and yet here are these Sixers. I would say with these Knicks, did you ever think that this Kn- I guess you did.
45:31
I never thought- Yeah... I never thought that this Knicks team was the best iteration of recent memory Knicks teams. Well, it's... No, you, uh, you keep saying it- But it's the competition...
45:38
like that and it's, it's, you're not wrong. It's the competition. It's just the competition around them. Yeah.
45:41
And I think it's, look, it's understandable I think why, why some people thought that about the Cavaliers once they ar- added James Harden, like at least they made a addition of some kind.
45:51
Um, I think it's understandable. It's just down here in the East. I really hope, I, I hope, I just hope we get healthy, good series here, right? I want Joel Embiid to play. I, I like- Healthy series...
46:01
like I want that to be a, a... I think that can be a good series, and if the Timberwolves, you know, if Ant looks a little healthier, this could be a good series against the Spurs.
46:08
As long as we just have a fair game played. Yeah, I just want to be entertained, and it makes money. We've done all we can do. Prop Points is next. Enjoy from Visa and the Sports Betting Network.
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