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May 9, 2024
A Numbers Game | May 9, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | May 9, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSAN. Thursday edition of a Numbers Game here on VSAN.
0:13
Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander. As always, my friend and yours, Kelly Bidlin, sitting here on the desk with me. We have Jonathan Davis a little later to talk some NHL.
0:21
Adam Burke joining us at the end of the program to talk some Major League Baseball, and you know what? Anything else that he wants to talk about.
0:27
Adam's writing about everything over there on vsan.com, also the co-host of The Double Play podcast over on DraftKings network as well. So we will talk to Adam Burke a little bit later in the program as well.
0:37
Kick things off with what seems to be the growing trend amongst every single thing in sports. A- and this has always been the case, but the fact is now we have more avenues for ev- everything to get highlighted.
0:51
We have more ways for people's voices to get out there, and that is their displeasure with any sort of form of refereeing.
0:57
This is ha- this is, it happens in football, this happens in basketball, this happens in baseball. We are already moving towards robo-umpires.
1:05
AAA has robo-umpires that they're trying to figure out if that's the way to go. I welcome our robot overlords, actually, in baseball because there shouldn't be a, "This guy has a low strike zone.
1:15
This guy has a high strike zone. This guy has a wide strike zone." No, that doesn't exist. A strike zone is a finite area that exists, and there shouldn't be any difference in the strike zones.
1:25
And so here we go with, was this a pass interference, was this not a pass interference? Was this a hold, was this not a hold? Now we get over into the NBA.
1:33
Wow, have we had a ton of complaining about the referees and what is going on in these games. Have they been more physical than we have, than we have been accustomed to over the last few years? I would say yes.
1:46
Then you listen to these guys that played in the '80s and '90s and they go, "I mean, that's basketball, man. Like, that's just what we're watching out there. That's just, that's just basketball."
1:55
You guys think that this is so crazy because we have become accustomed to where every single little thing that, e- every single, every single little ticky-tack thing becomes a foul call.
2:05
Well, is there something that we can do about this to create a happy medium? Because I don't think you can referee a sport one way during the regular season and change that into the postseason.
2:14
So can we find a way, without going to robot referees in NBA, is there something that we can do to get a little bit more consistency throughout the course of the entire NBA season?
2:26
I know that you want to make sure that these players stay healthy.
2:30
You want to make sure that the stars are there for the playoffs, which is why you probably referee this game a little bit lighter during the regular season.
2:39
But Kelly, when I see what's been kind of going on here throughout the early part of these playoffs, it's almost like two different games that are going on out there. And again, I, I'm not against...
2:50
I'm not for or against the way that the refs are calling these games.
2:54
I don't mind if there's a little bit more physicality in the NBA game if there was more consistency with that throughout the course of the NBA season, and I don't mind if they continue to referee it the same they did the way the, th- through the whole...
3:05
because at least there's consistency there. Mm-hmm.
3:08
But I kind of do understand why we have this outrage, why fans, maybe fans who have just caught a game here and there throughout the course of the season and then they turn, tune into the [laughs] playoffs and they're kind of like, "Well, this is not what I saw at all- [laughs] -during the course of the regular season."
3:22
So I can understand why there is outrage. I can understand why these players are getting frustrated. I can understand why these coaches are getting frustrated as well because they don't really know now.
3:30
They're almost having to re-game plan. They're almost having to re-understand what a foul is, and we've, we've gotten to the most important part of the season- Yeah... which is the playoffs.
3:39
Yeah, I think that, uh, I mean, I, w- it's all about consistency, right?
3:43
W- whether we're talking game to game, within a game, from regular season to the postseason, I think the one that we've come to just accept is that the officiating will be different in the postseason than it is in the regular season.
3:56
I think the part that's really tricky about this year, though, is, I mean, we have on record at this point that post All-Star break, the end, re- the rest of the regular season was officiated differently and they allowed more contact.
4:07
So then when you go from, okay, what was play like in December, to what was play [laughs] like in March, and then what's play like now, you're really jumping a couple steps there. So, uh, there's a lot of contact.
4:19
I, I, I get it. Um, I don't... I'm almost, uh, like you, I, I'm, I'm, I'm for it. That's fine with me. Just call it consistently on both sides of the ball. That seems to be one of the bigger issues.
4:29
And if you're going to allow the extra contact, then you go back to the Myles Turner thing in game one, where you, in a critical moment of the game, in which we saw screens like that in the '80s and '90s- Yep...
4:43
every game, multiple times a game. It was never called a foul. That was a borderline even in today's NBA as far as that call goes.
4:51
And so now you're sitting there and you look at that being called and you go, "Wait, we officiated this game one way for the first 58 minutes of the game, and then all the- Yeah, when there was 30-plus screens set- Yeah, yeah...
5:03
that were probably, most of them moving- Yeah... exactly like that. Yeah.
5:06
So 58 minutes we refereed this one way, and then the final clutch time, whatever, just because it was an important possession, just because it was an important part of the game, now we're going to change the way that we do this.
5:16
I at least can sympathize with the frustrations. And I'm not saying that I agree one way or the other. Yeah. I'm have... Again, no dog in the fight in all of this. I'm not trying to say...
5:25
I mean, I guess there's a future ticket with the Pacers involved, but, you know, like- [laughs] You, you, you get what I'm saying. Yeah. Like, I'm not a Pacers fan. Right. I'm not, like, I don't have a series price.
5:33
I don't have any of that. So I, I don't really have a dog in the fight, but I can understand the argument. I can understand what's going on. And I can understand even as bettors, right? Key moments, because
5:43
it will come down to one of these weird fouls getting called that's going to either push a game over 'cause a guy goes to the free throw line, or cover a spread or whatever it might be that shouldn't have gotten covered.
5:53
Th- it will happen... It, it will inevitably affect a bet.
5:57
It will inevitably affect a player prop or whatever it is, you know, somewhere down the line [laughs] 'cause a guy gets to the line for two free throws that he probably shouldn't at the end of the game. Mm-hmm.
6:05
So there, there are all kinds of implications here that goes down. And so I- I look at this, and are we a little sensitive? Sure we are. Should everyone have a voice? Probably not.
6:15
You maybe should pa- have to pass a test to get a Twitter account. [laughs] You know what I'm saying? Like, whatever. Something along the... Like, every p- Oh, yeah.
6:19
Every person can't scream from a mountaintop about every single thing that goes wrong against your team.
6:25
But I do get what is kind of collectively brewing here in all forms of sports, because all we really ask for is consistency. Yeah, yeah. Like, there shouldn't be like, you know, in the NFL, Kelly. We get these...
6:38
We now have s- so much analytics on everything, that we can get, like, this guy's crew calls more- Mm-hmm...
6:44
holding penalties than this guy's crew, and this guy's crew has more personal fouls than this guy's crew, and all... And we're like, none... That shouldn't be the case. Yeah.
6:53
A personal foul is a personal foul, just like holding is a holding is a hold. There shouldn't be variance among the, the crews. The same way I was talking about with the strike zone.
7:00
There shouldn't be a low strike zone or a high strike zone or a wide strike zone, because the strike zone is the strike zone. And so it's the same deal in the NBA. I understand it's a little bit more difficult.
7:10
You're making split-second decisions on what's going on in real time with dudes moving very fast and a lot of things that are going on.
7:18
However, we're just asking for consistency of what is and what is not getting called on a consistent basis. That's, yeah, 100%. Yeah. Absolutely.
7:27
I, I, eh, I mean, w- we talked about this Pacers-Knicks game last night [laughs] though. I mean, you're gonna hear a lot about, uh...
7:33
I mean, w- the Pacers have filed a complaint to the NBA over 78 calls from game one- [laughs]... and game two that they felt were, uh- That's all?... officiated wrong. That's it? That's what... That's it, Matt.
7:41
Only 78, okay? That's only all they're asking to address. I don't have much sympathy for, uh, for Pacers backers, and, and those people complaining though last night. Like, it is...
7:51
Yeah, yeah, it was another night with some iffy calls. It wasn't nearly as bad as game one. No. To me, not even close- It wasn't... from that side of things.
7:58
And if you're complaining about that last night, maybe take the time to reflect on you had a whole quarter plus without Jalen Brunson in that game, OG Anunoby missing the end of the game, and you still couldn't close out the Knicks.
8:10
I- I'm sorry, but that, that's the way you gotta look at it today. I said this last night to a couple of, of, of Pacers fans on the Twitter machine.
8:16
I go, "Are you sure you're not just frustrated- You're frustrated, yes... as to what's going on with the series?" Because here's the thing. Deep down, you know it's over because you, you did... W- what did we say?
8:27
You and I both said that JBT said this as we were talking to him about this game. The only way they were going to win this game is if they got a monster performance from Tyrese Haliburton.
8:36
They got the monster performance from Tyrese Haliburton and still couldn't get it done. It's a 130 to 121 victory for the Knicks.
8:43
The Knicks come all the way back and cover, by the way, you know, any number that was out there. [laughs] Yeah. Like, any number that was out there. Not only did they win, they covered as well in this game.
8:53
And so we were sitting here saying like, "Okay, Pacers, the only way you can do this is if you can get Haliburton to look like Haliburton from the beginning of the season." Haliburton goes 11 of 19 for 34 points.
9:03
He's seven of 11 from deep, five of six from the line. He actually adds nine assists, six rebounds and three steals as well, and that was not good enough, Kelly. You still got a seven of 18.
9:15
I mean, it's not the greatest shooting performance out of Siakam, but it wasn't God awful. I mean, he played decent, I guess. Obi Toppin, 20 points as well. But the...
9:24
You just look at this and you say, "If you can't get that done after that performance you get from Haliburton last night with the situ- injury situation like you mentioned with Brunson, all of the stuff that went on,
9:35
man, this is a wrap," right? I mean, I understand. There can be people who point to the Knicks and say, "Dude, they're running this team into the ground." Fair, fair. They played eight guys last night.
9:43
And when I say they played eight guys, one of the guys played one minute. [laughs] So they played seven guys last night, you know? Uh, I think it's interesting. I bought a little...
9:50
I bought off a little my position on the Knicks. I was very happy to see them win that game to get me a nice number to be able to, to do that just because I'm s- I am scared of what is...
9:59
OG Anunoby's gonna get, uh, imaging done today. Yeah. He was incredible to start that game yesterday. If he's out, I think this series could change.
10:06
He is such a weapon on both sides of the ball for the Knicks, but specifically, specifically on the defensive side of the ball, where he can give Siakam nightmares. Um, if he's gonna be out... And man, I,
10:18
you know, we're, we're, we're not doctors. We're not doctors. Yes. But, uh, man, that was the immediate- We always have to put that, uh, that disclaimer out there...
10:24
that was the immediate hamstring grab that doesn't ever look good, y- uh, that usually in my mind goes immediately to, uh, okay, a couple games at least. Um, we'll have to see, though.
10:33
And then Brunson, I mean, I, I still got more questions than answers with what happened with Brunson during that game yesterday. I mean, that was very odd. 'Cause it just said... 'Cause it just said- Foot...
10:41
foot soreness? His right foot was sore. And it just said... But yeah, soreness. It wasn't like, oh, he felt like it was sprained or- Yeah... oh, or whatever. It was just soreness. A- and I mean, there were definitely...
10:52
Like, I... These guys are incredible. These athletes are incredible because I think there were moments in the second half where you're like, "Wow, this is really bothering him."
10:59
In other moments, he's driving to the basket, and you're like, "I don't know. He looks fine to me there." Yeah. I, I don't get... By the way, you mentioned that series price.
11:04
So if there was a time to buy in and you wanna get in before any of this news comes through- Yeah...
11:10
you know, and, and I imagine in the next 10 hours we are going to know a whole lot about this Knicks team, it is plus 330 on the Pacers.
11:19
I understand it's a daunting task to come back from two, from 0-2 in any series, Kelly, but at this point, you're getting plus 330 on a Knicks t- if you were, you were betting with that plus 330 on the fact that you're getting a banged up Knicks team that's gonna be without at least one more person somewhere along the way.
11:34
That is at least still on the table. Again, nothing definitive right now for all of this. Wow, what an opening segment.
11:41
We're gonna come back and we're just gonna continue rolling on, and we didn't even get to half of what we were trying to get to here on The Numbers Game.
11:46
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12:02
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12:26
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12:46
I haven't done the math, but it- that's what they say anyway. Me either. [laughs] Yeah, so there it is. Uh, so we did a lot of talking in, in...
12:53
Th- the game itself, Kelly, really came down to the fact that you mentioned Jalen Brunson leaves, ends up coming back, scores 24 of his 29 in the second half. Knicks win 131-121.
13:03
It was 79-70, Pacers, with 9:52 left in the third quarter. The third quarter ended 99-91 Knicks, and then, you know- Yeah... th- the story was written from there. But it was a Pacers nine-point lead
13:19
under the 10-minute mark in the third quarter, and then it just all went to hell from there. And here we now have, uh, a- again, a, a series in which...
13:29
If you're the Knicks, though, Kelly, and this is us playing hypothetical, and also we a- have, have not been to medical school at all. Not one minute. Not one single second actually. Not one single second.
13:38
Not one single second of medical school. If you're... I- okay, Brunson's foot's sore. You're up 2-0. Yeah. It's a road game anyway. Are you, are you resting him? No. No, it's playoffs.
13:53
You say, "Get that sore foot out there"? Absolutely. Yeah, yeah, yeah. This is th- no, no. We can't go down the... Can't... I mean, OG, if it's a hamstring, maybe a little bit different situation. Uh, but you...
14:03
Yes, not a doctor. [laughs] Yes. Immediate, immediate reaction to what you just said, no. If you can go, Brunson, we need you every minute that you can go.
14:11
We're gonna shoot that foot up- Just, just like he did second half last night. Yeah. We're gonna shoot that foot up with the good stuff. The good stuff. Yep. Which is obviously what happened.
14:17
Yeah, that's exactly what happened. Yeah. Yeah. He went in and he was like, "Man, my foot really hurts. I need the good stuff." And the doctor was like, "All right, I'll be back. I gotta go get it in the other bag."
14:26
[laughs] I think I might have to wait an entire quarter actually- Yeah... to make sure we get the extra actually. He's like, "Let me send a text and see who...
14:33
All right, get that over here down, and then we give you the good stuff." And then boop, there you go. 24 of his 29 in the second half. And- I do think B- I do think Anunoby- Yeah... that could be a different story with.
14:42
Yeah. Right? I mean, if it's a hamstring and it, it... Let's just say it's a strain or something like that. He... Let's say it's maybe him missing a week or two, right? Yeah.
14:50
I, I think you wanna put him on ice and rest him up, and see what you can do at least in Indiana before you think about forcing him back in the lineup.
14:57
But I think if, if it's Brunson and it's just looking like it's battling through pain like he was last night, I... You gotta go, bro.
15:04
Like sorry, but, uh, they need you every, every second that you can, you can be out there. The Knicks need it. You know what? I would pa- I would pay some good money for the good stuff. How come we aren't...
15:11
How come the good stuff isn't available to us? We get to sample it? [laughs] Yeah. Like how come the good stuff isn't...
15:15
We always talk about that they get the good stuff, and it's like, well, what, what, what, what do you... I have, I have means. I have money. I'll pay for the good stuff. Yeah. Why, how come I...
15:21
How come the good stuff's not available to me? I, I think I needed that after, after the kicking incident with my calf. Yeah. I, I needed the good stuff on the field. You needed... You definitely needed the good stuff.
15:29
We were supposed to go to the golf tournament that day. Yeah, yeah. You- Had to go home to my couch... you definitely needed the good stuff that day. We'd have just, we'd have- We could've walked around golf all day...
15:37
we'd have shot, we'd have shot you up, let you sit down for 30 minutes, let it kick in. Boom. There we go. We're out there, we're watching, we're watching some holes. Maybe one Crown and diet- Yeah. No...
15:44
and we're good to go. Yeah. It'd have been, it'd have been amazing. Uh, someone, someone make the good stuff available to the public out there, all right? That's a... There, there's your billion-dollar idea.
15:51
Absolutely free. How about the Celtics minus 380 to win the East now? 380. They've won one game- One game... in the second round, and they are minus 380.
15:59
We do have two more basketball games tonight we should talk about, though there isn't much to talk about here in this Cavs-Celtics game, as the Celtics are now 13 and a half point favorites in this, plus 625 on the Cavs money line.
16:12
[laughs] 212 is the total. Kelly, we've seen this thing tick two points now. It goes off, you know, well, well, I guess a point and a half at the... It started at 11 and a half.
16:20
It goes 12, 12 and a half in some books, and now 13 and a half as we get to this game from where we were in game one. You know, listen, the reason I'm not willing to...
16:29
Uh, there's a point where there's probably a buy point on the Cavs, but, but the thing is with me is I think the Cavs are likely smart enough to understand the only chance they have to beat the Celtics in this series and s- in, in, in, in any game is to increase the variance.
16:47
And the problem is, is when you increase the variance, then games can get way out of control. Like the Cavs probably, i- if you were...
16:54
If you sat down and modeled this, and like there was a, a actual true, real game theory for the Cavs, seeing how outmanned that they are, they should probably shoot 55 threes in this game.
17:07
I mean, that is the Celtics trap though, right? Like they, they want you to try to beat them that way. Yeah, yeah, like, yeah. But it's the only way. But I wanna tell you- I know, I know...
17:14
if, if you try to play the a str- Yeah... if, if the Cavs try to play them straight up, it's o- it's not going... They're not going to win, right? Like it is...
17:20
So it's like you almost have to look at it and say, "Well, who cares if we lose if we... Losing, losing by, losing by 25 doesn't matter," right? Like it doesn't matter if we lose by 20. Mm-hmm.
17:33
Like we have to go out and try to increase the variance in this game. And what if we shoot 55 of them and we end up making 21 of them? Yeah. You know?
17:41
Like I mean, there, there is, there is a world that exists that that happens through the course of one game. I think that's the only way that they can do this. And so that's why I'm...
17:51
I, I don't know what the buy point would be on the Cavs for me, but I think that they understand the path to victory has to be doing something like that.
17:59
And with that, if it's not dropping, Celtics will cover this 13 and they, they might double it up again. Yeah. Right? Yeah. I mean, they doubled it up in game one. They might double it up again. Yeah.
18:07
I mean, between, between that, you, you know, maybe they do take that approach to the game. Between that and between garbage time, I think this does make it, it difficult to talk about this point spread- Mm-hmm...
18:16
specifically. Um, I- I, I, I do like Will Hills bet. He c- he came on here, talked about yesterday team total under on the Cavs. Yeah. I think that's a way you could look for sure. I, I even like probably the...
18:26
I think he mentioned it as well, the first half team total under, it's probably where I'd look. Just take garbage time out of it if it does become a Celtics blowout. I like that.
18:34
I, I didn't end up betting anything though w- with, uh... I'm with you. I think this one's kinda too tough to figure out almost every game. But I- I'll still go b- keep going back to the well with Donovan Mitchell.
18:43
Like you brought up, I had a great day, great the other day over on his point prop. I bet it at 29 and a half last night. Um, I'm over on that. I, I h- you gotta get above 30 for it to ma- make me rethink that.
18:54
I- he launched 25 shots last game. I... There's no reason to think that's gonna be any less.
18:59
In fact, if the game is, does happen to be close, it's probably gonna go up 'cause it, they did take him out at a certain point. Um, so I went with that.
19:05
Nothing huge for me tonight, but w- that is my one bet in that game. Yeah, I think, I think m-
19:11
I don't know if there's a number, like you said, under, under 30, u- under 32, 30, 32 and a half, something like that, that would scare me off- I-... with Mitchell just strictly based off of what is the expected- Yeah...
19:25
volume again. Now, he's had bad game, he could have bad games. Yeah, totally. Absolutely. But, but, but we're betting on opportunity. It's the same thing we talk about all the time with player props.
19:32
Like we wanna bet on opportunity because opportunity at least brings the chance of this. Hey, like w- it's hard to bet, dude.
19:38
So, so like I've often said this about Jokic and why he's such, he's so hard to bet from a player prop perspective. One, because he plays two different types of games. Like some days he'll accept the scorer role. Yes.
19:50
Yeah. Other days he'll just accept the distributor role. Two, he just doesn't shoot with volume, so like you have to have incredible efficiency from a dude like Jokic when you're betting- Mm-hmm...
19:59
a, a player prop on him. It's not the same with Mitchell. Like we know... Like Mitchell, uh, his...
20:04
My guess tonight in a game like this where they just got the wheels blown off and like, I think his baseline is what we got in game one, which is 25 shots.
20:11
And if they keep this even somewhat competitive, Kelly, I'm not kidding you, we could see this dude take 30, 31, 32 shots in this game because he, he... There is no other path to victory.
20:20
They don't have another stud scorer. He has to be the guy that does that. And if you go down in flames with your dude, at least your dude is how you went down in flames.
20:29
Yeah, the, I mean, the o- the other one I think to, to think about, I was just looking this up 'cause I think this does speak to the game script a little bit, that you could be cor- there's no way this is accurate.
20:38
[laughs] Yeah, it is. Um, okay. I, I, the w- the one I was gonna bring up quick is, I, I feel like DraftKings has tripped me up a couple times with these, uh, Donovan Mitchell player props.
20:48
Uh, points over, I think the other look would be three-pointers over, right? He was 4 for 11. He took 11 three-pointers. Yeah. And think about the game script that you brought up. Absolutely it could turn into that.
20:58
High variance, let's take a lot of threes, try to beat the Celtics. He took 11 last game. It's probably not gonna be too much less than that. Right now DraftKings, it's set at two and a half for some reason- Yeah...
21:07
on his threes. Over juice to minus 166. Yeah. I, I think three and a half, over three and a half, wherever that's priced at, I... That would be- Or just including it in like a same game parlay- Absolutely...
21:17
or something like that- That would be a bet... where, where it's like a, okay, it's this, this, this, and it's just three based off Mitchell- Mm-hmm... and volume and whatever, you know? Mm-hmm.
21:24
And like, and l- again, the, if the game gets out of, way out of hand too early, then sure, I guess it could. But it, what's the...
21:31
It's, you're almost like no harm, no foul situation with the Cavs at this point, where you're probably not taking Donovan Mitchell out until
21:39
the five-minute mark in a fourth quarter or six-minute mark in a fourth quarter because it's like y- you, why? What's the point? I mean, it's the playoffs. It was pr- it was pretty gross- Yeah...
21:47
when the Mavericks did that the other night. Yeah. Even, I mean, they, they weren't even down to full 20 yet and it was the five-minute mark and they waved the white flag.
21:54
So [laughs] you would hope, I would hope- Yeah... you play to like the three and a half- Yeah... minute mark and then you're down like 20. Then I might be more okay with that. Yeah.
22:01
And, and, you know, listen, you get a little lighter defense too whenever, whenever a team's up big, so like you're talking about those threes, he might get a little, a couple uncontested looks- Mm-hmm... as well.
22:11
So stuff to, stuff to look at in this one. But again, it's just, it's a, it's just a tough handicap. It's a, it's a- Yeah... it's a lopsided series. It's a lopsided game.
22:20
The variance is, is, is really, really wide in this thing. So I just don't know, I don't know where to go with all that. We got one more basketball game to get to here, and then we'll start talking some NFL bets as well.
22:30
Kelly, I love running through these divisions with you. Get our thoughts here on anything that may or may not be heading into our account here on our Numbers Game on Thursday.
22:37
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22:55
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23:45
It's a Numbers Game here on a Thursday. Matt Brown, Kelly Bidlin. That's new, the little pre, the pre-done reads, and I don't mind it. That's all right. Thanks, Ryan Donner. Yeah, I don't mind it. I don't mind it.
23:54
It's great to hear your voice in the morning. I mean, if I had to power through a 60-second read, I think it would, uh, it would be tough. It'd be tough. My... I only have so much brain power, you know?
24:02
I wouldn't be able to, to do that. Speaking of only so much- I'm not sure that was a full 60 either [laughs] Yeah. Like, and also v- to, uh, talking about so much brain power, w- we have skipped right over hockey.
24:11
L- look, we're, we're more well-versed, Kelly, in, in NBA, so it's easier for us to just kinda get in and start rolling on that. We're two segments in. No.
24:18
Well, I don't wanna, like, I don't wanna make sure that we skip over this. So the Panthers score six- Unanswered last night. Three in the second, three in the third. They went six to one over the Bruins.
24:28
Bruins up one-oh after one period, and then, uh, after that, it was all Panthers. Tie that series at one-one. We got to the, uh- I can tell you this much, Matt. If you average- Yeah... three goals a period- Yeah...
24:39
I like your chances. You're gonna win a lot of hockey games. Yeah, you're gonna win a lot of hockey games. And in true hockey fashion, Kelly, the, uh, frustration fighting started last night. So- Oh, nice...
24:50
yeah, as it got to, like, I think it was five-one at the time, as opposed to six to one. When it was five-one at the time, then it just turns to fighting. You know, like, it's because, like, there's nothing else to do.
24:59
The game's over, so let's just fight. It was our boy Pasternak. Ah, David Pasternak. I mean, just a, I mean, a full-on fisticuffs going on. It wasn't a Tuesday night.
25:08
Yeah, there's a full-on fisticuffs- Oh, with, with Tkachuk, right? Out there. Yeah, yeah. I think it was the two stars going at it. Yeah, and so here's the thing. I- I...
25:15
This is, this is the funny thing about hockey, where we just, you know, we're, we're complaining about, air quote, ticky-tack fouls in the NBA. Yeah, these guys just go fight [laughs]. These guys go out there. They go...
25:26
And then they ask the coaches about it at the end of the game. They're kinda like, "Yeah, I loved it. It was great." [laughs] You know, like, serious- [laughs]...
25:31
both the c- both the coaches were like, "Yeah, yeah, no, I thought it was great. You know, th- you know, sometimes you just gotta, like, go out there and show the guy you're not afraid of him and all this."
25:38
It's like- Yeah... uh, like, they're... It's encouraged. They go out there for n- like, to assault each other on skates. It's [laughs] Skate assault, and then it's like, "Yeah, it's fine. It's great.
25:46
I love it," you know? I- We're complaining about moving screens in the NBA, and they're all like, "Yeah, well, they should definitely just punch each other in the face more."
25:52
I always have to say, one, one of the, one of the, one of the things I hate the most in sports is when we, we, we make, we make everybody do the, "Hey, good, good game, good game, good game" afterward i- in other sports.
26:03
In hockey, I lo- I love the fact that they can play a game, beat the crap out of each other, and then they always line up afterward, and it's like, "Hey, good game, man." Well done. Hockey's always the exception for me.
26:12
Well, well done. That left hook, though, you gotta work on. Right, yeah. [laughs] Yeah, that left hook, not so good. The Canucks rally from a four-one deficit last night to win five to four.
26:21
They take a one-oh series lead. That crowd was going crazy in that game, as you could only imagine, Kelly, if you were down four to one and then win five to four, how excited a crowd would be.
26:31
And so that, uh, that got them to a one-oh lead here. Two hockey games today, Rangers-Hurricanes. Uh, Hurricanes minus 170, plus-on 42 for the Rangers, and then Avalanche and Stars, your late puck drop.
26:43
Stars minus 122 at home, Avalanche 102. We will talk a lot more about that a little bit later. But, uh, listen, Kelly, we got to [laughs], we gotta, we're s- gonna stay on task here. Mavs and the Thunder.
26:56
Thunder five-point favorites. 218 and a half is our total, minus, uh, 198 on the money line there. Thunder's plus 164. Mavs, if you think that they win this thing outright. You know, here, here we go again, right?
27:09
It's the, if I knew more, maybe I could come with a much more informed opinion, but the problem is, is we know that Luka is not the same. We know that Luka is playing through things right now.
27:22
What you and I don't know, and could possibly inform a bet in this game, is we don't know the extent of the injury. We don't know what he feels like this morning. You know, we don't know, did he get the good stuff?
27:33
Whatever it might be. And which is very hard, because a handicap around the Mavericks obviously is Luka-Kyrie centric, and then it's kinda everybody else. I- it, it's, it's just a really tough go for me.
27:45
I mean, maybe we monitor the Twitter throughout the course of the day. Mm. Maybe we get some inside information. Maybe we start to understand at least a little bit better what's going on with Luka.
27:53
But until I have that information, I, I would be... It would be hard for me to pull the trigger on the Mavs. Yeah, I don't think you're gonna get anything.
28:00
I, he, he, I mean, he's already listed as probable, so he's gonna go. I, I- He's gonna go... I think what you've seen out of Luka, unfortunately, is probably what you're gonna get. Is what you're gonna get. Yeah.
28:07
A- a- and there... Look, I think there's gonna be games where it's not gonna bother him as much, right? And he's gonna be able to do a little bit more.
28:13
Uh, man, I thought what he looked like in game one, though, was really, uh, it, it was really jolting, just 'cause y- it was the first time where he had an extended break, right?
28:20
At least in the first series, you're like, "Okay, I don't really know how to read into some of this," 'cause he's playing every other night. He had a th- a, you know, a full, what, four days off in between series.
28:29
I don't know how much affected with that little closeout where he went down, too. He definitely, I mean, to me, he looked more bothered, way more, way more bothered after that.
28:38
So I don't really know how mu- That's the biggest question for me. How much of that was just a game one thing that maybe clears up [laughs] by game two and he looks a little better?
28:47
But, man, uh, the step back just isn't hitting. His three-pointers the past few games, he just can't... He's not making... He's very, ma- making a very low clip. I, it, there's not... I...
28:56
Look, I've got big futures positions on the Mavs I don't have much confidence in right now. Um, didn't run to lay five with the Thunder, although that's exactly where I would look. I do think...
29:06
I don't think there's anything wrong with this, with this line. I'd be a little scared of taking Bet Mavericks, uh, tonight. I wouldn't be that worried about laying the points with the Thunder.
29:14
Although I actually did put a bet in. I b- I played team total over. That's where I went with- Okay... the OKC side, hoping Mavericks could still pull out a win. [laughs] Yeah.
29:21
But I think Oklahoma City, just from what I saw, offensively and defensively, they still look like the same team through the regular season, through last round, through game one.
29:31
It is a top five offensive and defensive team that's gonna run a lot of fresh bodies at you, and if the Mavericks are having the same kind of turnover problems that they were having in game one, and rebounding issues, uh, it's hard to see them slowing down the Thunder.
29:45
Jokic wins his M- uh, third MVP last night. Kelly, did you see the video of when they announced it, and he just basically went, "I'm so excited"- Yeah... and whatever? Like, he just, like, doesn't even care anymore.
29:56
You've won, so you've won multiple MVPs, so the third one just doesn't even hit anymore? Yeah. Do you- SGA should, still should've gotten more love than he did from the voters is all I'm gonna say. That's all...
30:06
Uh, so are you, you know- I'm not gonna say that y- I... Yes, I had bets on SGA, okay? Mm. Right, right, right. I didn't th- I didn't think for a second they were gonna win, uh- Sure...
30:13
after the past couple months since the All-Star break. But, uh, he should've gotten more first place votes than 15. A congratulations to our friend Dr. Mr. Eric Eager- Yes... out there, Kelly.
30:23
Uh According to Joe Person, who covers the Panthers for The Athletic, the Panthers plan to hire Mr.... Dr. Mr.
30:30
Eric Eager, who has been over at Sumr Sports for the last couple of years, previously at Pro Football Focus, dating back to our Primetime Action days- Mm-hmm... a, a frequent guest on Primetime Action with us.
30:40
Uh, the Panthers are gonna hire him in an analytics role over there with the team.
30:44
So again, it's one of those things where some of these football teams, Kelly, are starting to understand that having someone in the building that can maybe not always give you a gut feeling, can give you an actual answer from what is more probable to happen, what is more likely to go on, what is the easiest path of victory according to the numbers, as opposed to, you know, uh, sometimes we get...
31:07
You know, sometimes some old school dudes wanna, wanna sit there and just say like, "Uh, no, this is the way you do it 'cause it's always been done this way." Yeah. It's like, well, you know, we, we have the information.
31:17
Y- It doesn't mean you have to use it- Sure... but at least have the information, have it in front of you. Maybe it can skew you one way or other. Maybe you're on the fence about something, you know.
31:25
And so the Panthers are, are... It looks like Eric's gonna move over there, and, uh, congrats to him. Good guy. Obviously, a guy that we've, we've known for several years now. Yeah.
31:32
Uh, biggest thing, hey, it's, it's, it's great when you hear good things happen to good people, right? Yeah. And that is, that is Eric Eager, so if sorry with him. Congratulations, Eric. I, that...
31:41
You know, hope that, hope it all works out, the transition works out fine. I, I doubt we're gonna be able [laughs] to have you on the network as much anymore. [laughs] No. That's what I was gonna say.
31:48
That, that was the only thing when we were kinda discussing this on the, on the text with the gang. We were like, "RIP to his betting career," you know.
31:53
[laughs] 'Cause can't do that anymore, which, you know, that's, uh... You're, you are, you are now, you are now forbidden from betting on the NFL, which as it should be. Yep. As it should be. Yep.
32:02
He's inside the building, so can't do that. So RIP to his NFL betting career. He's gonna have to take up betting jai alai and, and, you know, all these other things- [laughs]... that are out there, cricket.
32:10
But, uh, awesome news for him. One thing before we, before we go to break here, Kelly. By the way, we were gonna talk to you guys about our golf picks, but this... The tournament's been postponed.
32:18
Uh, not postponed, delayed. Uh, heavy rains in the area currently right now over there in North Carolina.
32:23
They're gonna try to get it going in about an hour over there, about an hour and a half, I should say, but that is still TBD. So we, we'll get to our golf picks at some point, but we're...
32:31
You're not gonna miss anything 'cause it's not going to tee off any time before noon Eastern, or, that, that they said on that. So, you know they're moving the hockey team from Arizona to Utah? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah.
32:41
They gave the fans 20 choices for names. Oh. I didn't look through them. I was g- I, I wanna... I was gonna go in blind for this. You know- But 20 sounds like a lot. So, well, here's the deal.
32:48
I'm gonna, I'm gonna read them now. Okay. And then everybody at home can, like, kind of marinate on them. You can marinate on them over the break, and then- Tweet, uh, tweet us your answers...
32:56
and then we- @kellybiblin, @mattbrownnfl And then we can come back with, like, what this should be. But so here, here it is. The, the Frost, the Ice- Okay... the Powder.
33:05
S- so far it sounds like they really wanna fall into the sta- the, the, um- The Utah. You know, they, they live in Utah... well, the, the category of not having an S at the end of your name. Uh, Mountaineers- Okay...
33:13
Breeze, Mammoth, Black Diamonds, Blast, the Caribou. God, man, I... Please let that one win. Blizzard. Are there caribou in Utah? Swarm, Hive, Outlaws, Yeti, Squall. Are there are a lot of bees near you?
33:30
[laughs] Fury, Glaciers, Canyons, Venom, and HC, which would be short for Hockey Club. Okay. All of y'all's opinions when we come back on that.
33:38
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34:14
DraftKings Sportsbook. The crown is yours. We left you guys with 20 different names for the Utah hockey team, which by the way, they're gonna go by Utah whatever. It's not gonna be the Salt Lake City whatever.
34:27
It's gonna be the Utah whatever. That was one of my clarification questions- Yes... during the break, yes. We- I think that's important when you're discussing a name. How does it flow? Yeah. And, and so one of the...
34:36
We did a, a minimal amount of research on the break as much as we could. We found out that it is, uh, that it's, uh, the Beehive State. The Beehive State. Okay.
34:41
Which is why the, which is why the Hive is part of the deal. We also did something where you have to eliminate one of these. So we're... Caribou, uh, we did some research.
34:49
Montana, Idaho, Washington, and obviously Alaska are, like, the, the main, the, like, the places you find caribou. Yeah. So if you- Leave it for Alaska and Canada. Come on...
34:58
if, if there's, like, a few roaming around in Utah somewhere... Listen, you can't have more caribou on the hockey team. Like, if, if, if- Correct. Yes...
35:08
you can't have more players on the hockey team named Caribou than there are caribou in the state. So that, they get, that gets done, done immediately. Yeah. I brought it up.
35:15
It's kinda why I have a problem with the Florida Panthers name. Like, I lived in Florida for a long time, didn't see many panthers. I get it. That's part of the idea. They're an endangered species there.
35:22
But you sh- you, you just don't connect that with Florida. You, you use an alligator or something like that. Did you... So where did you land? So they give you the option, right?
35:31
This is Kelly Biblin gets to name the Utah hockey team. Where does it land? First of all, I'd go back to my marketing team and be like, "I need 20 more names." I need 20 more names to consider.
35:41
But if I have to choose from this list, going with the Utah Yeti. I think the Utah Yeti sounds awesome. And it flows, right? That was the importance- Yeah... between Salt Lake City and Utah. Yes. Utah Yeti.
35:52
The Utah Yeti. Utah Yeti. Yeah. The U- the Utah Yeti. You know- There's a couple terrible. Here's the thing. Ca- Canyons? Well, Canyo- Like, come on... and also, like, Outlaw. You don't think of the Outlaw.
36:00
Like, you don't think of Out... When you think Utah, the last thing you think of is Outlaws. Yeah. And, and, and- You don't think Outlaws... I, I'm sorry, but I'm skipping all, I'm skipping all the skiing, uh, names.
36:09
Like, anything to do with skiing. Like, that, that- Right... that makes you sound badass and tough when you hit the ice, a bunch of skiing terms. Yeah. That- Let's go to Park City and- Yeah. It's, it's like-...
36:18
have a good- He's like, "And tonight the powder come to town." It's like, no, no. I mean, come on. [laughs] Like, that's just, no way. There ain't no fighting in Park City, okay? Yeah, yeah. Come on.
36:27
You know, like, we're not, we're, we're not scared of the powder coming to town, you know? Like, that's, that's not happening. You know what? You might be scared of the yeti, though.
36:34
You might be scared of the Yeti You might be scared of the Yeti Also, like, there's some cool uniform opportunities- Yeah... with that one too. There it is. Utah Ye- We... I think we did it. Utah Yeti.
36:43
Utah, uh, Y- we, we just saved you guys [laughs] out there. You no longer have to vote. It's gonna be the Utah Yeti. Um, Kelly, real quick, a, a quick note, if you guys did not see this yesterday.
36:53
Oh, I missed the beginning of that. It is a fan vote for- Yeah... out, out of those 20 names. That's what I'm saying. Wow. Yeah. Okay. It's a fan vote. That's what I said, that they gave you the power to do it. Yeah.
37:01
Pick correct, fans. Pick correct. Yeah. There are some names you can eliminate off there. This is not a, a... This is not a pat on the back.
37:06
We had absolutely no inside information that this was going to happen, but we did have on Pulse Four on Tuesday, we did say, "Hey, maybe you wanna throw a Paul Skene's Rookie of the Year ticket into your account."
37:15
It looks like they've s- they're stretching him out to come up sometime pretty soon. Well, that pretty soon is now. So [laughs] he got the call, and he will actually be starting for the Pirates this week.
37:24
So Skene, they saw all they needed to see in him down in Triple-A, where he was just absolutely dominating guys at Triple-A.
37:31
And so Skene's is gonna come up, which obviously if he were to pitch well, plenty of time for him to win the Rookie of the Year and all of that. So maybe hopefully you threw that in there.
37:39
Uh, I, uh, I put a, put a ticket in, as we talked about on, on that and, uh- Did odds move big time? You know, it, it just... A couple- I- you texted me when it happened. I ran to check if I could make a bet.
37:50
They had pulled them all down. I didn't check after they got reposted. Just a couple of points, right? Okay. So you could find, you could find out there at the time, like we said, 14, 15 to 1, something like that.
38:00
And so now over on the NL side, Skene's is 10 to 1. So it fell four or five points. Yeah. So- Yeah. Yeah. Okay. So- That's not bad, though. Not, not, not terrible. Yeah. But again, that's what we were saying.
38:10
We were saying the second he got the call, it was going to fall, right? And so that's why we were trying to get it in there a little bit earlier. And, uh, we do. So we'll see what happens. Hopefully he pitches well.
38:19
That's two Tuesdays in a row, actually, on a numbers game where... Though I, I don't, I don't wanna say accidental. [laughs] Yeah.
38:24
Where we accidentally predicted some news, but like I asked Gil about Luis Urias being traded la- last week.
38:29
[laughs] We were discussing that for all of two minutes, and then a day later he ends up getting randomly traded. We were talking about fewest wins market. So I don't know.
38:36
That's becoming a odd trend on Tuesdays, apparently. Yeah. I mean, it's, it's...
38:40
[laughs] It wa- it was an inter- it was an interesting deal with Skene 'cause just, like, it was almost like the writing was on the wall, but like- Yeah...
38:44
they, but they didn't, they were not saying they were going to bring him up, you know? But they were, they were certainly, they were certainly like, "All right.
38:51
This guy's now start at three, three and a half, four innings, five innings, six innings." So yeah, they were gonna get him up there. Dude throws triple... At, at the very least, he's much watch- he, he's must-watch.
39:00
Yeah. Like half his fastballs are gonna be 100 miles an hour as a starting pitcher. That's pretty fun. Yeah. Can you imagine- He, he, he, he was, uh, good watching in college. Yeah. Can you imagine throwing 100 mile...
39:10
Like what that must feel like? No, I mean, like- Throwing 100 miles an hour... you pitched once upon a time. Yeah, but that's gotta... I mean, nowhere. I mean, come on. Let's put it this way. No.
39:16
I'm not even standing in the batter, the batter's box, okay? Like, I used to play these games with Josh Towers where I'm like, "How much do you think you could gas it?
39:22
Like, how much do you think you could get it in there?" Maybe he's been out of the game too long. Yeah. I, I'm not gonna trust his accuracy right now, you know? I don't mind getting beaned by that. Yeah. I, I wouldn't...
39:30
Yeah. You, you don't want that. No. Ain't nobody, ain't nobody got time for that. No. Uh, all right. So we said, we talked about these divisions.
39:35
I wanna keep rolling, rolling through these and see if there's anything that we like in any of these, and I think this is the most interesting one over on the AFC side of things, Kelly, which is the AFC South.
39:44
I think the Texans are going to be good. I think the Texans really surprised us last year with all they did. I think the Texans had a good off-season. I do not know, though, if the Texans are
39:55
half the favorite, you know what I mean, like the, the half the number of the Jags, though, when it all comes down to Texans plus 110 to win the AFC South, Jags at plus 240, Colts at plus 340, and then the Titans out at 10 to 1.
40:09
I like the Texans. I think what the Texans have done is absolutely great. I think that Stroud's a stud. I think that getting stuff on... I, I mean, there's all kinds of stuff that you could love about this team.
40:17
But are they... Should they be half the odds of the Jags? I mean, it is still the Jags that are bringing in a pretty talented squad.
40:25
All things considered, they drafted a wide receiver to come in and be, you know, another dude to add into the, into the mix there for Trevor Lawrence and, and all that.
40:33
Like, I, I think the Texans are probably better on paper by a slim margin, but certainly not to the point where 110 to 240. Okay. I'll go. I'm, I, I... This might be...
40:45
It probably is an overreaction, but, uh, I don't think the quarterback position's even close. I think CJ Stroud's [laughs] that much better than Trevor Lawrence. Uh- Ooh... I don't know. We saw it in one year.
40:54
I think it's... I think he is that much better. Yeah. Look at you. Now, here's, here's where this division becomes tricky for me, Matt. It's not... 'Cause I agree with you for the most part.
41:03
Is there that big of a difference as a team whole between the Texans and the Jags? Probably not. There's still a, a, there's still a wild card team in this division, though, to me, and that is the Colts.
41:11
I mean, we, we saw very little of Anthony Richardson last year, and what we did see was damn impressive, and I think he could be really good, too. Um, so I am, I'm ver- I can't wait to see him back on the football field.
41:23
It's probably gonna keep me out of betting mostly a- mostly anything in this, uh, in this division. I, I think I would still bet the Jags. I mean, look, i-i... Trevor Lawrence has been good.
41:35
He just hasn't been great, and that's the problem, right? Because we all thought that he was gonna be great. Yeah. Everyone talked about him being the
41:41
b- greatest can't-miss prospect since Andrew Luck and all the thing... You know, all the hype that surrounded him coming in, and he has not been that. But he's been good.
41:49
And so you have Christian Kirk still on the roster. You draft Brian Thomas, and then you sign, for what it's worth, you sign Gabe Davis. But the thing is, is Gabe Davis now can be a wide receiver three. Mm-hmm.
41:59
And that's probably what Gabe Davis is. And if Gabe Davis is a wide receiver three, you're probably in a pretty good situation.
42:05
Like, I mean, like Gabe Davis is, is probably a wide receiver three, and at that point, he's probably one of the better wide receiver threes in all the NFL.
42:11
And so you still have Evan Ingram, who was a renaissance there for, for the Jags at the tight end position. Decent offensive line.
42:19
I, I, you know, the defense has always been kinda up and down with that Jags team, but if... The, the talent is there. The players are there.
42:26
Figuring out if they can do it on a week-to-week basis has been something that's been... I don't, I don't know. I think if the bet was to be made for me in this division, it, it would, it would still be on the Jags.
42:34
I don't think I'd go Texans plus 110, 'cause I don't think that pri- I don't think- Yeah... the price is indicative of the gap between them a- and the Jags, and may- and like you said, maybe even the Colts. Yeah.
42:42
Maybe even. I, I think this will be interesting to see. This is... I mean, we got schedule release coming next week, right? This, I think this division, I'm looking at win totals.
42:50
I think that's the only thing I could see myself betting, is possibly one of these win totals, and it might... Probably most likely one would be Colts over or Texans over.
42:58
Um, I think I'd rather bet that than the division o- uh, division odds. But that's gonna be schedule dependent. I'll be looking at that.
43:03
[laughs] And the other, the other team you and I were kinda talking about off the areas, and I have no idea what to make of the Titans either. So, like it's kind of another- Yeah... wild card in there.
43:11
I don't really wanna consider if I'm betting a division price here. I don't think that- We didn't even talk about that yesterday. Yeah. Like, I was- So they signed Tyler Boyd. Yeah.
43:17
So now their wide receiver room is, is D-Hop, Ridley, and, and Tyler Boyd with whatever they're gonna do with Treylon Burks, who's like- Right... you know, like who's just kinda over there. I mean- On the team...
43:27
two years ago if you were playing Madden, they got the best wide receiving corps in the NFL. [laughs] Yeah. So like, like if you and I had to think... I mean, I don't know how much your opinion changed last year.
43:37
Like, I still think Will Levis has a chance to be something. Sure. But... And, and that is a great wide receiver room. It wouldn't shock me if they blew this six and a half win total out of the water. Yeah. I...
43:47
So there's a lot of unknowns with it for me, this division. I'm kinda glad most of them [laughs] are all in the same division together, so I can kinda just toss this one out. Yeah. Um, and I don't...
43:57
Y- y- Trevor Lawrence, like you said, he's not a bad q- quarterback. Yeah. He's good. I w- I do think CJ Stroud could end up being that good, though. That, that, that's really my point with it.
44:06
As we head to break, that's all we need for the AFC West. Uh, yeah, the Chiefs are gonna win it. Like there's the Chargers have no shot. [laughs] Okay. Raiders have no shot. That's fair, yeah. Broncos have no shot.
44:13
That's all we need. That's all we needed for, for the AFC West. Yeah. We literally needed no more than the outro music here as we head to the bump.
44:19
I will, I will consider Broncos and Raiders, uh, win totals under, that's for sure. [laughs] That's all we needed for that one. Let's talk some hockey when we come back. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
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