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May 9, 2024
A Numbers Game | May 9 , 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | May 9 , 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:27
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Transcript
0:00
With Gil Alexander on VSiN. [upbeat rock music] Hour number two of a numbers game here on VSiN. Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander. This segment brought to you by Zen Nicotine Pouches.
0:13
Kelly Bidlin on the desk with me as well. Kelly, uh, the Twitter machine always, you know, rampant with rumors out there as well.
0:23
An anonymous veteran assistant coach says you can almost sense a sigh of relief among Luka Dončić's teammates when he checks out of a game. Wow. Okay. I don't even know what that means.
0:38
I, uh- Like, they want him to get the rest, or- No, I-... or they think they have a better chance with him off the court? I'm guessing it's that since he's so
0:47
limited right now with whatever's going on with him- Yeah, they think they have a better chance with him off the court... that, that, like, that, like, they'd rather him not heave up...
0:54
They'd rather him not go one for 10 from three and whatever. And like, yeah, I, I don't know. That's, uh, again, a...
1:00
It's pretty easy r- for an anonymous person to go out and, and say that, but, uh, you know, look, could you, could you get yourself to, to a point where you could actually believe that? I mean, I don't know. I guess.
1:12
We, we don't know how injured he is. You know what?
1:13
I, also I, I'm sure there's been a lot of superstars in sports that have dealt with injuries, that a lot of teammates have felt their, uh, this way about, but if they actually feel that way, guess what, anonymous source, you ain't winning anything if that guy ain't- No...
1:24
on the court. So. No. That said, if you do- Sorry. [laughs] That due- that said, if you do in any... I- if he does end up sitting a game in this thing, I will break my finger betting the over on Kyrie Irving points.
1:35
Like, I mean, Kyrie is gonna score 40 plus easy. I will, I will bet every single ladder all the way up to 40 for Kyrie. I, I mean, yeah, like I...
1:44
I- if you wanna tell me right now, K- this, this offense should be running way, way more through Kyrie's... K- through Kyrie, I, I, I can't argue that with the current state of Luka Dončić, but- Yeah... I, I don't...
1:55
If that guy's not playing, I don't think you stand much of a chance. No, not at all. Only thing we're gonna do is just bet Kyrie to score all the points, 'cause he will. He'll score all the points. He's a premier scorer.
2:04
People f- people- He's awesome... he's an amazing scorer. People just forget. He's playing with Luka, so he doesn't... He didn't get as many chances. All right, let's talk some NHL.
2:11
Your friend and mine, Jonathan Davis, joining us here. You can find him on the Ice Cap over on Sirius XM. You can also see him as the host of, uh, Show Me the Money hockey betting podcast as well.
2:19
Jonathan, how you doing, buddy? Appreciate the time. Doing great, guys. How are you? Doing good here. The Progressive guest line bringing us the heat today with Jonathan Davis, and we're going to get right into things.
2:31
Uh, uh, Jon, let's, let's do a quick little recap before we get into your plays for the evening. What we saw last night, um, the, uh, so, you know, the blowout, right? Do you, do you take anything from the blowout?
2:46
I mean, you see the six goals in the two periods and all of that, or is that just like, you know, whatever, sometimes in hockey that happens.
2:52
Is there anything that you drew from that that you're gonna take moving forward? Well, o- other than the fact that we know that if you had any concerns about the Florida Panthers, put them to bed because that...
3:03
Look, they're, they're a really good hockey team. I, you know, for me, there's no momentum from game to game. Hockey players will tell you, you know, in the playoffs, it's, it's shift to shift.
3:12
It's not, it's not game to game. Uh, we got a series. And I think anybody... You know, we all felt, I think many of us felt this was gonna be at least six or seven games, so how you get there, I don't...
3:23
I, I never get too ramped up about it either way, a blowout. I'd rather lose 6-1 than 3-2. Yeah, no, I, I, I, I feel you on that one.
3:31
What about, what about the second game in which we see a, a 4-1 deficit get erased and then a 5-4 win by the Canucks to go up in that series?
3:40
One, what did you think of, of that series heading in, and then what do you see of it now that we see that, that, that big rally from the Canucks? And man, that was...
3:48
Uh, listen, I'm not a, a huge, huge hockey guy, but that was super fun to watch last night. Well, Matt, they, they... You know, Vancouver had scored just 13 goals in round one, and they scored five last night.
3:59
Again, it's the second time the Oilers lost a 5-4 game to a team that you wouldn't expect them to lose 5-4.
4:06
You know, they lost 5-4 in overtime to Los Angeles and then again last night, and the fashion that they lost last night was very disturbing. They didn't have a shot in the third period until about 15 minutes in.
4:17
They just... They sat back, and they did that against LA. LA doesn't have the talent that, that Vancouver does, and it bit them in the backside. And their goalie, Stuart Skinner of the Oilers, you know, the...
4:28
He, he's been the question mark for them throughout the year. He was once again a question mark last night. Uh, that winning goal should never have gone in. So let's take a look at what we got going tonight.
4:41
The first puck drop Rangers and the Hurricanes. That's coming to you about seven o'clock Eastern. Hurricanes minus 166 at home in this one, plus 140 with the Rangers on the road. Five and a half is our total. I, I...
4:55
Let, let's, let's talk about the game in general. I know you have a player prop as well in, in this one, but let's talk about the game in general, what you think is gonna go down. Well, firstly, I...
5:02
You know, I wanna go back to a conversation you guys had last segment. How about we have the Hurricanes against the Blizzard in an upcoming Stanley Cup playoff? [laughs] I mean- The Utah Blizzard. There we go. Okay.
5:12
All right. You don't like the Yeti? Come on, Utah Yeti. It sounds so good. U- Utah Yeti. I'm good with the Yeti. It's gotta be the Yeti. It's gotta be the Yeti. [laughs] I mean, think of the merch.
5:20
I mean, the merch and just the merch alone. [laughs] You, you make a little Yeti. You get... I mean, it's, it's amazing. It's... Uh, yeah. I, I- No... I love it. I love it. All right. We, we, we digress. Mm.
5:29
Look, th- this is one of the loudest buildings in the NHL in, in Raleigh, uh, with the Hurricanes. I... You know, I, I don't like the price of $1.65, uh, for, for Carolina. It's just... It, it...
5:41
While I like the Canes to win, I just think there's better value in other places. Carolina was one of the best home favorites in the NHL, though, this year. They were 27 and 14.
5:49
The Rangers were 7 and 6 this year as a road dog. Um, you know, there are a couple ways you could approach it.
5:55
If you like the Rangers, I would go and, and play their alt line on the team total at over three and a half at plus 235. When they win, they score at least four goals. They've done that in 40 of 41 games.
6:07
Um, you know, they're 40 and 1 when they score four goals. So that, that, that'd be a way to approach it from the Rangers' standpoint.
6:14
Uh- I also, you know, while I'm leaning Carolina, I think the props are better on, uh, on the Rangers' side. Vincent Trocheck there, the former Carolina Hurricane who scored the game-winning goal
6:25
in, in game number two, I, I, I did a same game parlay with him at over a half a point and over two and a half shots on goal. Get that about plus 163.
6:34
So I do like the Ranger props better than the Carolina Hurricane props.
6:39
But if I gotta pick a winner in this one, I think ultimately I do like the, the, the Canes in pretty much a must-win situation 'cause, you know, you, you can't go down 3-0.
6:48
We said that you cannot be the Utah Caribou when there are no caribou in the state of Utah.
6:53
Just look, North Carolina's hit, been hit by 55 hurricanes, including seven category three through category five hurricanes since they've been measuring, like, hurricanes hitting- Oh, they qualify... places where...
7:04
So if you've been hit by 55 hurricanes- Yeah... you can be, you can be the Carolina Hurricanes- Absolutely... if anyone wants my opinion. 100%.
7:09
You know, so I just- Well, now you see, you've got the advantage to look that up on, on those five screens that you've got in front of you. Yes. [laughs] I mean, it's not fair.
7:16
I, I've said this, uh, many a time, uh, I have sold more of these things than these people have. [laughs] Like, I, I get asked where I got this thing all the time. I mean, and people...
7:23
And next thing you know people are coming back, "Dude, I got it. It's great." Like, I mean, uh, seriously, I've, I've sold five of these. Zero, $0 from the ZBack company, by the way, on, uh, on my selling of these.
7:33
Well, you got a shout-out, too. [laughs] Yeah, I didn't even think about that. I should've, I should've said, "On said company." Yeah, said company. You didn't pay for any of this stuff.
7:41
You didn't get paid for this promotion. All right, so we have one more, uh, puck drop here, Jonathan. Avalanche and the Stars tonight, this about 9:30 Eastern. Minus 122 Stars at home, plus 102 Avalanche on the road.
7:54
Six and a half, though, is our total in this one. How do you see this one? I, I like the Dallas Stars. I mean, I, I like Dallas in the series. And, and if you still like Dallas in the series, you know, I think...
8:08
now to win the series. They were, they were about minus 120 heading in. So I think there's a lot of value there on, on a series price with the Dallas Stars. Couple of props in this one as well.
8:17
Wyatt Johnston, the rookie phenom, over a half a point at minus 143. And on the Colorado side, their leading goal scorer, Val Nichushkin, has scored in every playoff game this year. He's got eight on the year.
8:28
It's pretty remarkable. This guy, you go back to 2017, '18, when he was a member of the Dallas Stars, guys, he had zero goals in 57 games. Wow, zero goals in 57 games. Yikes.
8:42
Kelly, how many goals can you score in 57 games? Zero. [laughs] I mean, he, he's, he has the same as [laughs] he has the same amount as you in 57 games, doesn't he? That's right. [laughs] Sign him to a contract. Yeah.
8:50
Kelly, you're in the wrong business. I mean, yeah, Kelly, can you ice skate? It would be really ugly. If I hurt myself with us playing football, I, I don't wanna see myself on skates right now. N- never once.
9:00
I've never ice skated, not one time. Really? That fun fact about Matt Brown, never w- ice skated, not one single time. I played hockey when I was a kid, but yeah. Really? But, by the way- Never done it...
9:07
guys, you were talking about the, you know, the injuries on the Denver side, on the Nuggets side. And it, it...
9:13
There's nothing better, like, once the, once an NHL playoff series ends, when you hear about the injuries that these guys play through, it's scary. I, I, yeah, I can only imagine. Can only, yeah.
9:23
D- I mean, they're gonna- Again, the good stuff... yeah, broken all this, strained this, that and the other, all the whatever. So you mentioned, uh, y- you're, you know, maybe the Stars out there.
9:33
So we are looking at the odds, plus 425 Rangers to win it all, Avalanche at 425 as well. Panthers at 450, Oilers at 550. The Stars are at 750, Bruins at 950. 10 to 1 on the Hurricanes, and then 13 to 1 on the Canucks.
9:50
If I'm coming to you and I say, "Jonathan Davis, here is a 300 Matt bucks, and you can go in and I'm gonna allow you to put this Matt bucks on a future with one of these teams out there," would it be the Stars?
10:04
They would... It would, it would be a toss-up right now. Look, I like Carolina. I liked Carolina a lot. And I, I had a futures ticket on the Hurricanes.
10:12
I think potentially the Florida Panthers have a be- an easier path at least to get out of this round than any other team. I, I, I just think Florida's- Mm-hmm...
10:20
much better than Boston, even though the series is tied at one. So if I'm taking Matt Brown's money- Yes... and Matt, thank you very much. I'll, I'll, I'll be waiting for, uh, the Venmo.
10:28
[laughs] I, I, I'd put it on the Florida Panthers right now. There it is. I m- I, I might have to throw me something in there, Kelly- All right... on the, on the Florida Panthers. Okay.
10:35
And we'll find out if there are Panthers in Florida, uh, on the break. There are. And we'll let, we'll let people know there. He...
10:40
You can find him over on the Ice Cap on Sirius XM, also host of Show Me the Money hockey betting podcast. He is Jonathan Davis. Jonathan, thanks for your time today, man, and good luck. Always a pleasure, guys.
10:50
Have a great day. So we're gonna go in, we're gonna bet the Hurricane. Uh, can we bet the... Can we, can we bet... Can w- I mean, can we bet the Panthers? I think I already have a Stars bet. I can't.
10:59
I don't know if I can do it. I don't know if I can do that. I think you're good. I mean, what's, what's tough- I think I just deleted the Stars...
11:02
with almost all the, all the great NHL guests we've talked to, uh, whether it's Jonathan or Jay Kahn, it's, we've talked about this all season long.
11:09
They, you know, how, how many teams are bunched at the top of the odds board, it just feels very wide open right now. I don't really know that much has changed.
11:17
The, uh, I, I can, I can tell you right now, when I was reading those, I was actually shocked it's, that there were four teams that were all- Right... plus four something. Yes. You know? Like, with, with all that.
11:26
It just lets you know there has been variance a lot, you know, in the, in the NHL playoffs.
11:30
So yeah, when we come back, let's talk a little at these NFL rookie leaders, 'cause I actually did put one of these bets- Cool... into the account, and, uh, maybe you want to too.
11:38
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:55
Kelly, Kelly, we got people out there, they got computers, they got tablets, they got mobile phones. You know what they should do?
12:03
They should type V-S-I-N into their browser of choice, and when you go in, you see a shiny new toy that we've done over there. Lots of work has gone into the site behind the scenes. That's right.
12:12
It makes it, uh, better for mobile, so you could be on your phone and scrolling through the website. Everything at vsin.com.
12:18
It's like one of those things where you wanna say whenever you're scrolling through your favorite website on the toilet, but you don't say it. Like, you, like, you think it, but you don't say it.
12:25
But it's like one of those things, like, that's what you're, that's what you're thinking whenever you say- Oh, you mean-... scrolling through your, your phone, on your phone, you know?
12:30
You mean like, uh, the exact location where I made my Mystic Dan bet- Yeah. [laughs]... uh, on Saturday morning. [laughs] There it is. It is vsin.com.
12:37
You get the bets, the splits, the articles, every single thing, all the odds, and of course- We know you love the pick, so that's over there as well. Was that the horse's name? I keep forgetting his name. Mystic Dan.
12:47
Dan, right? Mystic Dan. I don't... I always remember the Mystic part, but then Dan sounds weird. So I had a beef with Samich, my, um, my co-host on The Handle. Uh-oh.
12:57
Because as we're doing the previews to all of this, one of the things he failed to mention to me... I don't know if you guys know or not, if you've been around for years on the network. I've been here for a hot minute.
13:08
I am from Louisiana, but specifically was born and raised in Shreveport, Louisiana. Mm-hmm. The owners of Mystic Dan are from Shreveport, Louisiana. If he brings that up, I ma- I place a bet just off- Ah.
13:22
Just based off of that. Right? So when did you find this out, on Sunday? Because I don't do horse research. I don't, w- you know, I don't do horse research.
13:28
I go off names that I think are pretty cool and, like, whatever s- stuff someone says somewhere along the way. So when did you learn this, on Sunday on the show?
13:35
W- no, they won, and then all my friends are all showing me- Oh.... their winning tickets. 'Cause every one of my friends won, and I'm like, "How did y'all all end up on this horse?"
13:44
And they're like, "Dude, the, the, the o- owners are from Shreveport." I'm like, "What?" Did, did you know them? One, informa- no, one, information they should have shared with me before the race. But for two,
13:54
come on, man, Samich. Samich, let's go, man. Come on. You gotta let me know that the owners are from Shreveport. It's almost like he Samoa bombed. He Samoa bombed on that. Yeah. [laughs] Yeah, big on boom, boom.
14:05
[laughs] I think that's his Twitter name. There's a reason why we said that. [explosion] It is, right? Samoa bomb. Yeah, there it is. Samoa bomb. [laughs] All right, so the, the, uh,
14:16
tons and tons and tons of football markets. We've been running through some divisions. We'll get to the other two AFC before the end of the show. But over there, this is one I found interesting, Kelly.
14:25
Because there is... You go in and you hit, and there's one of the tabs says rookie leaders, right? So you can pick the passing leader or the receiving leader- Yeah... of, of, of rookies out there.
14:38
And so you go to passing leader and, and, you know, rightfully so I think that the favorite is Caleb Williams at even money.
14:44
Jayden Daniels plus 250, JJ McCarthy plus 350, Bo Nix eight to one, Drake Maye 16 to one, everyone else 60 to one or longer. If you bet Spencer Rattler, you're probably lighting your money on fire. That said,
14:57
I look at this and there's one name that jumps out to me on this one, and it's Bo Nix at eight to one. And reason being is 'cause I actually believe he starts from day one. Yeah.
15:13
So I think he takes the first snap of the season, and I don't think the Broncos are gonna be very good.
15:20
And so I think there will be a lot of garbage time passing, and a lot of playing chase, and a lot of Bo Nix just being able to kinda, like, run around and, and play backyard football Bo Nix type of stuff that's gonna be going on.
15:33
And, and, it's not necessarily that I think that he is going to win this, Kelly, but one in eight times- Mm-hmm... if we run this out, one in eight times, he probably does win this, right?
15:44
Because you look, we think that the Bears might actually be fairly decent, right? And they've got a good running back situation going on there. Like, they've got a good defense. Like, th- there might be...
15:54
Also, let's just go, you know, it's Chicago. There could be, there could be weather games as well, which also that would affect Bo Nix. But there, there, th- there could be weather games.
16:03
There might be a game in Chicago where it's so windy that they don't throw the ball, right? Yeah. Now you've, now, now you've erased one of the games off of Caleb Williams', uh, schedule with all of that.
16:13
I think JJ McCarthy's interesting in this at three-and-a-half to one. He's stepping into that situation like we said yesterday when we were talking about this.
16:20
You get Justin Jefferson, you get Jordan Addison, you get TJ Hockenson. They signed Aaron Jones, by the way, if y'all forgot that. Yep. What does Aaron Jones do very, very well?
16:28
Catch the ball out of the backfield and create after he's become a, a receiver in space. And so I would actually go McCarthy and... or Nix, or both, or McCarthy and Nix in this over Williams and Daniels.
16:42
I actually think it would not shock me at all if McCarthy or Nix won this over, over Williams and Daniels. And so I, I, I think that this market to me is, is kind of bettable.
16:52
You get an eight to one in your account, you get a three, three-and-a-half to one in your account, and, you know, you make money if either one of them hits. I mean, do you think there's that...
17:00
I, I, I figure right that you could, you could read into a little bit of what they're telling you in these... with the odds here, right? Like, these odds tell me that JJ McCarthy is definitely starting day one. Right.
17:13
Even though it doesn't- And, and that Bo Nix-... dictate that in the other market that we looked at. Correct. Correct. Yeah. And even though it doesn't- Yeah... dictate that in other markets.
17:18
And Bo Nix, they're a little unsure of. Yeah. 'Cause if you told me there's four guys, a- I mean, and Drake Maye they're unsure of, right? Yeah. That's what you're seeing here in 16 to 1 next to Drake May. They, but...
17:28
Not, not, not just not sure of, they're probably leaning more towards he doesn't start week one as well. That he probably doesn't start- Yeah... until week four or five.
17:35
Um- Well, at these, at these odds, they're- That's what they're telling. This is, like, multiple games that he's not... Correct. Yeah, yeah. Correct. So I think that's interesting.
17:41
If you're just gonna take away anything from this conversation, I think that's what dr- uh, DraftKings is telling you a little bit with these odds. Um, I'm with you though.
17:49
I mean, if you were j- if you knew those top four guys were all starting from day one, it's hard to real- it's hard to really say that a guy eight to one, I don't really care what situation or what team- That, that's, that's what I said...
17:58
they're playing in- That-... i- yeah, is not a good bet. Th- that, that is, that is the case to be made here. And all of this is like, it doesn't matter what you think of Bo Nix as a player.
18:05
Like, it do- that, that, that doesn't matter really. The separation between him and any of these other guys given the opportunity should not be that big of a gap to him.
18:14
Because they're still capable players in Denver, and if anything, you could make the case- But garbage time's such a big deal... that, that, that Denver might be the worst team of the four. Yeah.
18:22
And if Denver's the worst team of the four, he m- he's probably gonna have more opportunity. And they are. I mean, d- to me, they're definitely [laughs] the worst team of those four. Yeah.
18:32
I, I guess the only problem is, you know, are they gonna have, you know, yes, actually games against the Raiders and Ch- Chargers might be competitive.
18:39
[laughs] We, I, there is the whole division thing going on there too. But I, eight to one, I would imagine they're playing a lot of catch-up. I, and, I mean, I'm with you.
18:47
I'm not a, I'm not personally a huge believer in the guy. Yeah. I'm not really a believer in what Denver's doing overall as a team. Um, but just eight to one on a guy who's likely gonna start. You might...
18:57
Like, I'm not running to bet this right now. I might, I might just take the approach of I'm gonna wait till I know for sure he's gonna start, 'cause I don't think there's gonna be a ton of movement- Yeah...
19:04
in this market. But yeah, if I had to bet one right now, for sure it would be him. So they still have Courtland Sutton. They still have Marvin Mims. They signed Josh Reynolds, whether...
19:14
But again, we're talking a wide receiver three or four. Mm. Josh Reynolds was successful as a wide receiver three-four in Detroit. He can do the same in Denver. They drafted Troy Franklin, who was his teammate- Yeah...
19:24
who was Bo Nix's teammate at Oregon. So a- again- Yeah, you would sure think that counts for something. You know- Yeah...
19:30
again, it's just, it's, it's eight to one on a guy that probably is gonna be on equal footing as these other guys, is, it's all said and done. So again, that one really stood out to me.
19:37
I will say, though, I like, like Drake May, you could... Same, same thing, right?
19:41
If I'm sitting here saying I'm gonna wait to see what the annou- you know, wait for the announcement for him that he's gonna be the week one starter, you can make the same case for May.
19:48
Maybe he does beat out Burset and starts week one. I, I'd be hammering 16 to one. You would, knowing that that's gonna be a loser because he has no talent on that team. [laughs] Like, there's no talent.
19:58
At least these other guys have talent. There's no talent on that team. Yeah, but I, I... Sure. I think there's still...
20:03
I think he could still be playing from behind a lot, though, and they're just gonna let him throw the ball. Yeah, but who's he throwing to? He's throwing to me and you. Like, like, it...
20:08
He's throwing to me and you on ice skates. Like, that's who he, that's who he's throwing to. Like, that's basically the equivalent. I've never skated one time in my life. All right. He's throwing to me and you on a...
20:16
Demario Davis? Are you... Come on, man. Like, it's- [laughs]... he's throwing to me and you on ice skates. So the receiving one is fairly interesting as well. So Marvin Harrison's the favorite, and he should be.
20:24
He's the instant wide receiver one, no question. He is stepping into a team that has no other [laughs] wide receivers that are any good. Marvin Harrison's plus 175.
20:32
Malik Nabers also stepping in to be wide receiver one for the Giants at plus 550. I get that as well. You get Keon Coleman at six to one. Eh, you know, eh, yes no, ish, whatever.
20:46
Josh Allen is weirdly an equal opportunity. He like, he just spreads the ball out a ton. Like, I don't know. I mean, it- So real- Yeah... quick on him. Well, I'll tell... Same t- Yeah... type, same type of thing.
20:56
When I was looking at th- at, at these odds, it told me something, right? Mm. And it told... What that tells me with Keon Coleman's odds is that my 50 to one bet on him to win Rookie of the Year is not a bad bet- Yeah...
21:06
because if he's... He should not be third on this list, and then 50 to one. And I know he's not that. He's like in the 30s- Yeah... now, for the ma- most part, 20s, 30s.
21:15
Um, but I think this gives you [laughs] a better idea of kinda where he should stack up in that Rookie of the Year race, at least amongst these wide receivers. Yeah, 'cause it's like, I guess for me- I hear you.
21:24
I don't know that I'm running to bet him in this market. But if you're telling me that you think- Yeah... he's the third, uh, the third best chance of w- of leading rookies in receiving- Mm...
21:31
yards gives me a, him a lot more, uh, a lot more value in the Rookie of the Year award. The, the reason I'm just a little shy is like, I don't think he'll end...
21:39
Uh, I don't think he'll be the primary option from day one, right? Like, I think Dalton Kincaid might lead this team in targets- Sure. Yeah... for like the first half of the season. They did sign Curtis Samuel.
21:47
Whether you think he's any good or not, he's gonna be out there, right? He'll be utilized. Khalil Shakir. Yeah. Khalil Shakir's at least got some rapport with Josh Allen. So like, there... That one I don't love as much.
21:56
But then you get to Xavier Worthy. Mm-hmm. There's more Rashee Rice nonsense going on now. It's incredible. Right? Where apparently he punched a photographer or something at a club or whatever and all this.
22:06
Like, Xavier Worthy might be stepping in in the same role as Marvin Harrison and Malik Nabers, but has Patrick Mahomes throwing him the football. Nine to one on Xavier Worthy. Again, it's the same kind of thing, Kelly.
22:17
It's like same thing we were talking about with Bo Nix. If all these guys are stepping in on s- equal footing- Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah... why is he nine to one when he has Patrick Mahomes throwing him the football?
22:26
So he's the second Rookie of the Year bet I made, and I actually think this is the bet, this is the market I should actually be betting in. It's, it's, it's crazy to me whenever we look at this.
22:35
We'll continue on some of these, talk some more divisions when we come back. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:49
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22:57
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23:08
You type in A-N-G as the promo code. Three letters. That's it. It's the easiest one of a- of the bunch. It's just three letters, A-N-G. You don't even have to spell a word.
23:18
I'm gonna, I'm gonna guess it's followthemoney.ftm. [laughs] You know what, Kelly? Is labortoflove.ll? [laughs] It's probably not. You know what? It's probably not on either one of those, and I don't really know.
23:29
I actually don't know. [laughs] And I don't, and I don't really know. A-N-G's all you got. Just use A-N-G. All you need is, all you need to remember is A-N-G. And so $199 for 14 months of VSiN Pro, vsin.com/subscribe.
23:42
Matt Brown in for Kelly. I mean, in for, [laughs] in for Gil Alexander with Kelly Fidlin. [laughs] I'm not in for you. I couldn't do your job. Oh, man. People don't even get it that you're multitasking over here.
23:52
I am multitask- well, I, I- Do you, do you get your flowers enough that you multitask? Yeah, yeah, yeah. If, if you listened to the show yesterday, you caught it. Rarely do I have that mo- the moment.
23:59
I usually time it pretty well by conversations with the crew. And I... What did you tee me up for, golf bets yesterday? I just looked at you like, "What? What'd you ask me? I didn't hear what you said."
24:07
[laughs] That was, that was, that was a rare moment where I get caught. But yeah, it was, uh, it's a little back and forth. Gotta talk to you, gotta talk to the crew, make sure everything's ready to go.
24:15
Yeah, I mean, it's, uh, it's one of those things where I... People don't work... You're working the ones and twos over here. People don't, people don't, people don't see that behind the scenes.
24:21
Sometimes, sometimes you gotta deliver a stiff arm. You never know, uh, who might approach the shield here, the desk. [laughs] This is [laughs] also true.
24:28
So all things that you guys should respect Kelly Fidlin a little bit more out there. Um, so there you go. A little, little... the applause.
24:36
So w- we're going to break, like kinda making a case for Xavier Worthy here in this like rookie receiving yards leader market, sitting at nine to one in a scenario which he could be the wide receiver one for Patrick Mahomes.
24:46
And I understand people are gonna say like, "Well, yeah, but it's really Kelce." Man, Kelce's getting up there in age. Yeah. Kelce...
24:53
And h- honestly, we kinda saw this in the beginning of last year, where it was like they kinda saved him for like the end- Yeah, yeah, mm-hmm... of the season and stuff, you know?
25:01
And, and he was running fewer routes and all these things. Like, I think we might see a tad bit more of that this year, too. Me too. I...
25:08
Don- don't you feel like that's kinda what we saw with Gronk near the end of his career- Yeah... as well?
25:12
I don't think it'd be shocking at all if you see a little bit more with that, with Kelce over these next- Where you're like-... couple years, probably... where you're like, you know, on- Second and sixes.
25:21
He's just on the sideline. Mm-hmm. You know, like, it's... 'Cause why is he out there on second and six? You know, it's, uh...
25:27
I, I think we could see some of that, you know, m- with, with Kelce moving forward, trying to preserve him- Yeah...
25:31
for what will inevitably be another playoff run for this Chief team, 'cause they're gonna win that division. Well, that, that and, I mean, just the, uh, you gotta b- you gotta start looking ahead at some point, right?
25:41
Mm-hmm. And it, it, and it's not just about, you know, what life after, after Kelce. It's what are we doing with this wide receiving corps, right?
25:48
'Cause that, I mean, [laughs] they still won, they s- they won a Super Bowl. There's still major questions about- Yeah... that, you know, going back to last year and going into this year. So I...
25:56
You gotta figure, you gotta get that figured out, and it's far from figured out, even though you did win a Super Bowl. So, you know, Lad McConkie is listed... [sighs] Okay. He feels short, too short.
26:10
Ro- [sighs] Roma Dunze says he's too short. That's the thing. At 11 to 1, it's like y- so we could make the argument that he's wide receiver one, but I mean, look, they still have Quentin Johnson.
26:19
Now, and, and do we know for sure that he's, that he's dumpster fire trash? Like, we don't know that for sure, I don't think yet. So- What a compliment. [laughs] You know? Like, uh, so it's, it's...
26:32
I think 11 to one's too short. Brian Thomas, we were talking about, like, I think there's a bull case for the Jags because of what they kinda have around, but, like, there's also other guys- Yeah... there for that.
26:44
Roma Dunze, you can scratch off the list. He is wide receiver three from day one, and it doesn't matter if by the end of the year he's worked his way up the chart. He's, he's not going to eclipse DJ Moore.
26:56
He might eclipse Keenan Allen, because Keenan Allen's getting up there in, in age as well. But, like, 13 to 1, that would need to be...
27:03
He would need to be in the 20s for you to even consider that, 'cause again, like, unlike Harrison and Nabers and Coleman and Worthy, and I guess to a lesser extent we could argue McConkie- Yeah...
27:13
and Thomas, Roma Dunze is the clear wide receiver three when he steps in. Like, clear wide receiver three. Mm-hmm. He is behind Moore and Keenan Allen for sure.
27:24
Now, he might work his way up to be two, but he's never gonna be one. So 13 to 1 on a Dunze is just lighting a ticket on fire. In my, in my opin- I think you're just lighting something on fire with that.
27:33
Yeah, yeah, yeah. So. I... Is there anybody else you'd even really consider? I mean, I don't think any of these other guys I'd consider for, for this market.
27:40
I, I know it's great to have a long shot ticket, but man, I don't... Like, I don't see Brock Bowers coming close. Even, even if he has a great year, it's just a tough ta- a tough ask for a tight end- Yeah...
27:49
on a team that's not very good. 22 to 1, I'd need longer than that. And they, and then you're just talking, you're talking other wide receivers I just don't think have near the talent as some of these other guys.
27:58
So it's like A.D. Mitchell steps in. Again, like you're, like we're saying, it's just, it's just a, it's a clear wide receiver two role. Mm-hmm. And two,
28:08
while we think Anthony Richardson is gonna be good, and I think you and I might be a little bit higher on Anthony Richardson than some people out there- Yeah, we don't know... it's a very small sample size- Yeah...
28:18
that we saw last year, and his whole thing was accuracy. Like everyone, the reason that people were scared of Anthony Richardson was accuracy.
28:25
So you're now getting a wide receiver two with a unproven quarterback who might have accuracy issues and, oh, by the way, also likes to run the ball a ton, and so could limit the amount of passes that could be thrown in the first place, right?
28:39
Yeah. So it, it's hard to get to, to him as well.
28:41
And then next you, now you get down the list and now you're l- now you really are talking a whole bunch of wide receiver threes and fours, and so you just can't, can't go there. But I think Worthy is interesting.
28:50
I really do, at nine to one. Yeah, me too. I think- I'm, I'm betting that actually... I, I think Worthy is interesting because we, you and I talked about this off air, it's worth saying on air.
28:59
The NFL is its own judge, jury, and executioner. So even if these, even let's say the Rashee Rice charges get dropped, what... They're not going to. There's pretty damning [laughs] evidence of what, like, went on there.
29:09
Like, he's gonna get charged with something. Yeah. You know? It would...
29:12
But, like, even if, even if he gets, even if this gets dismissed, right, the NFL can go back to that whole conduct detrimental to the league thing and whatever and all that stuff like that.
29:20
Like, he's going to, he is going to miss at least a couple of games. I am very confident in that. Mm. And so if you miss, if you miss a couple of games, that gives Worthy the opportunity.
29:31
So let's not, let's not forget, like, Rashee Rice kinda worked his way into that wide receiver one role, but it wasn't, like, a dominant thing. Right. Yeah. You know what I mean?
29:37
He's kinda like a- It wasn't like he was so great that, like, he's just, oh, it's just gonna be crowned to him no matter what. Worthy could take that spot from him. Totally. I, it w- I was gonna say, he kinda worked it.
29:46
I mean, he did enough to work his way- Yeah... into that. I don't wanna take that away from him, but he kinda ended up being the default number one guy. Yeah, yeah. 'Cause there just wasn't anyone.
29:53
And, like, Worthy could take that spot from him for sure. And if, especially if he has to miss, like, three or four games- Mm-hmm... Worthy, he, he could step back in and be wide receiver two pretty easily.
30:00
So nine to one I think is, is interesting there on that bet. Kelly- I, I think the other one with these, with these rookie markets- Mm-hmm... I was just checking around. I, I...
30:07
They're not posted yet, but DraftKings will often post, you know, these, these match-ups too, right? Mm-hmm. So if there are...
30:14
You know, if you do got a strong stance on one, one of these guys, either in the passing or receiving markets, over another guy, you don't necessarily wanna bet the index prop, uh, against everybody else.
30:24
Keep a lookout for those. Those will probably be posted at some point. Or posted at other shops. AFC North, Ravens plus 115, Bengals plus 165, Browns six to one, Steelers eight and a half to one.
30:36
What is kinda setting up again to look like the division of death. Um, we got Joe Burrow back out there passing. He's gonna be there. You think that Deshaun Watson here in his, in, like, you know, now you're back.
30:50
You, you can't, can't claim rust anymore. You sh- like, you say you're healthy. There's no injuries. Browns should be better.
30:57
The Steelers can't be worse with their quarterback situation they had last year, and so now they have a couple of different options there. And then the Ravens, of course, are gonna be the Ravens.
31:05
So this one is super, super interesting to me, Kelly. If anything, I would gravitate towards Cincinnati, but the price just isn't indic- it, it's not enough for me to, to wanna get that. Yeah, I bet 'em.
31:15
I did bet Cincinnati. Yeah. Uh, just, I mean, Burrow back, and it's a little bit of I, it's a l- I don't wanna say, it's a slight fade of the Ravens, dude. Yeah.
31:23
I, I'm just not, I, I'm, I'm not as, as- I think it's fair. Yeah. I think it's a fair fade. Yeah. I think they ran real pure last year. They ran real pure. Yeah. Real pure. And that, and I...
31:31
Look, they're still gonna be a great t- Mm-hmm... I think they're still gonna be a very, very good team in the AFC. Like you said, this is the division of death to me, uh, as well.
31:38
But I, I don't think they're gonna run as pure, I don't think they're gonna be as good. You get Burrow back, obviously- Mm... if you're the Bengals.
31:44
And, man, I've been as high on J- on Deshaun Watson as anybody over- Yeah... the years.
31:48
I'm kinda, I'm entering this season with way more questions about what this guy's true talent is at this point and where he fits, uh, in the NFL, 'cause- No excuses now, dude. If he d- Ex- exactly, man.
31:59
If he doesn't do it this y- now you can't claim rust anymore. Yeah.
32:01
You can't claim whatever, you can't also, like, you don't do it this year, then we're gonna, we're gonna be looking at, like, one of the worst contracts in the history of- Yeah. Ab- of course... of all of sports.
32:07
Yeah, totally. I, I mean, now having said that, I, the Browns [laughs] Browns still fi- figured out ways to get a- Yeah... get wins last year.
32:15
I mean, I, the way you said about the Steelers, I mean, the Steelers still ended up with, with that many wins- Mm-hmm... last year with a terrible situation.
32:21
So I, it's, I, I don't think you can completely count those teams out ever, and I'm not rushing to bet win totals unders like I did last year on the Steelers, uh, because of that.
32:31
Um, but I mean, I do, I do think the Bengals are just a notch above everybody else in this division. So I, I did bet that. I bet 'em a plus 175, not that big of a difference from- Yeah, no.
32:39
It, it, look, like I said, if I was gonna bet it, it'd be Cincinnati. Yeah. 'Cause I, I... it's, it's not that I don't believe in the Ravens, I just don't think that there's much of a separation, if any.
32:46
And I think Cincinnati could very well just be the best team in this division. I, I- Like, from the get-go.
32:50
If I'm wrong about Watson and he is kinda the guy I expected to see last year, six to one sure feels long com- on them compared to the other two teams. Y- yes. Now that is, that is true.
33:01
If, if you believe [laughs] in Deshaun Watson in something we haven't seen in four years. Yeah, it's just e- exactly. If you do believe in that, then six to one is the, is the bet to make.
33:09
I just can't get there because I haven't seen it yet. I mean, you just put it.
33:13
I, so, but, like, I've struggled with him because I've been a fan of him from on a field standpoint of what you see from Deshaun Watson on the field going back to Houston days, but I, we j- it's been four years.
33:23
You haven't seen it in four years. It's, it's so, so incredibly wild. We'll hit the AFC East when we come back. We'll also give you our golf bets and our final NBA thoughts. Take you home here on The Numbers Game.
33:36
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. If you do not yet have a DraftKings Sportsbook account, we got a deal for you.
33:50
Go in, download the DraftKings Sportsbook app, use the promo code VSiN when you deposit, bet $5, we're gonna give you 150 instantly in bonus bets. That's all you gotta do.
33:59
DraftKings account, promo code VSiN when you deposit. Bet 5 bucks, 150 instantly in your account in bonus bets. DraftKings Sportsbook, the crown is yours.
34:09
Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander, and if you hated me here, guess what? You only have one more segment. I'm not in tomorrow, so if you hated me the last three days, you only have to listen to 15 more minutes.
34:19
There you go. That's it. Good for you. It's a lucky... Y- how lucky are you that you only get that today? We'll have some Friday fun with Ben Wilson tomorrow. Um, we said- Lots of college baseball you said?
34:28
Little, we'll hit, hit some college baseball. We're gonna have Matt Grissom on the show to talk college baseball, so he'll join. We'll, we'll start breaking that down.
34:34
I know the ANG audience loves some College World Series bets, so we'll dig into that a little bit. Lou Finocchario gonna join the show for a little playoff hockey, UFC talk.
34:42
We said that there was a delay in, uh, the, the event- Oh, yeah... the, the event of the, uh, teeing off because of the weather. Um, looks like they're gonna try to get going here in the next 20 minutes or so.
34:53
Um, no, I'm not... don't hold me to that. I, I'm not a weatherman. Not only have I never gone to medical school, Kelly, I've never gone to meteorology school either, so never done any of that stuff.
35:02
You would run through- I took a class. Oh, l- did you really? I took a class. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Can you tell me what a cumulonimbus cloud is? Uh, well, the cumulus are the big puffier ones.
35:11
I don't know what a cumula- cumulonimbus... I thi- feel like you just made that up, but maybe not. I don't, I don't think I did. I think there's like- It feels like I-... there's like a stratus cloud too. Yeah.
35:20
I feel like I did, I th- there must be a nimbus then, and I think maybe the combination of cumulus and nimbus i- is the cumulonimbus.
35:26
In the same building I also took a dinosaurs and natural disasters class, which I thought was gonna be a breeze. Mm-hmm. Way more dinosaurs w- were around than you think.
35:34
That, that's- Like, hey, when you're like, "I know all the dinosaurs. I saw Jurassic Park." That sounds fun. And then they're like... Yeah, no fun. They're like, "Here's 657 dinosaurs.
35:42
Uh, have 'em memorized by tomorrow." No, I'm good. You're like, "I'm out." I'm out. All right.
35:46
So I have Wyndham Clark, Sathiagala, Tony Finau, Akshay Bhatia, Max Homa, and Sam Burns in the outright market, uh, with this one. Top 10 on Justin Thomas and a top 20 on Corey Conners if you wanna get in any of those.
35:59
Like I said, it looks like they're trying to get going in about 20 minutes over there. Gonna be some rain off and on it says, but should clear up by the afternoon. So, uh, did put in a first round leader bet on Rory.
36:09
Like I said, I was going two Kelly, so did have that in there. Oh, like it. Okay. Yes, I did get involved first round leader as well. I'm gonna start there actually, and made a few of these.
36:16
Love, uh, i- in the condensed fields, you and I have talked a, a little bit about this, Matt. Love the top 10s, uh, uh, offered, uh, in the first round markets that you can get here.
36:26
Um, I know BetMGM offers 'em, so I, I played, uh, Tony Finau, Hideki, and Akshay Bhatia in f- as first round leaders and then- Oh, I threw a Hideki one in there too. That's right. Nice. So I, I, I threw a Hideki one...
36:37
and honestly, that was more of a, it was a FOMO one because I, because I knew you had the outright on Hideki. [laughs] And the thing is, is anyone that listens to Long Shots know I,
36:46
I am, I, for whatever, I, I can't, I, I just don't bet Hideki. I don't, I don't know why. Yeah, you don't. Yeah, you really don't. There, there, there's, there are some guys I think that we all fall into patterns with.
36:53
Mm-hmm. And for whatever reason, I don't ever bet Hideki, and then, like, when you... You've been on the Hideki scent- Yeah, I have been... like, over the last couple years.
37:00
And so since you had the Hideki scent, I go, "Well, I'm gonna, I'm not gonna miss out totally." So I d- I, so, so it's, I have, uh, Rory and I do have Hideki for my first round leader. Hey, I, and I, I love the...
37:10
You and I, you and I have talked about it. These top 10 options, I mean, you're talking se- s- what are we? We don't have 70, right? 69 players in this field this week. 69, yes, with the withdrawal from Ludvig. So, yeah.
37:19
So you get top 10s, uh, offered in, in first round leader. I love it. I mean, you could, you know, in theory you could hit all three of these. [laughs] All three of the guys could finish top 10.
37:27
That, that is the, that is the thing about this is, like, you know- I'm fascinated by that market, by the way.
37:31
You and I have discussed it a little bit I, I'm not gonna sit here and act like I've had a ton of successes here in it, 'cause I haven't. But it's a...
37:37
I, I just think with all betting, right, you should explore some of these new markets that are offered to you. If you see value in them, I at least see value in something like this, especially in certain tournaments.
37:47
And you're telling me a tournament where there's only 70 guys going, I, I think there's a whole lot more value in the, in those top 20.
37:52
Well, and that's the other thing, too, is, like, the, the top 20 market just for the full tournament, right? Mm-hmm. 69 players guaranteed four rounds. So that's the other thing. Right. So you're not, you're not...
38:04
A guy can play his way back into the top 20 getting two extra rounds. Yeah. Now, he might not be able to play his way into winning. Yep. Right? But a guy that might have fallen on a cut line or something like that,
38:15
playing his way back into a top 20, getting the four guaranteed rounds. So it's like you start to look, some of these guys that we like in this tournament, Seve, the guy who was plus 105 top 20.
38:24
Like, it's plus money, top 20- Yep... on him. I've got that bet. Decky's plus 110. I got that bet. Benal's plus 120. Fitzpatrick that you like is plus 120. Zalatoris is plus 130. These are all for top 20 bets. Yeah.
38:37
Like, finish in the upper third of the field. It's a pretty good bet. No, I, I like them as big. For sure. I don't know how you feel. I kind of feel the opposite when it comes to tournament matchups in these. Like- Mm...
38:49
I, 'cause I actually love the, I love the, okay, g- but get my guy- Oh... past the cut and then get- Oh, no, no. That's for sure. Yeah, get the guy, the guy you're betting against gets cut.
38:57
There's nothing like the Friday feeling of- Yeah... "Oh, the cut came and I already won my matchup bet." Nice. Yeah. My guy can go 18 over- Right... over the last two days, and it doesn't matter. Yeah, no, I, I...
39:07
Yeah, the no-cut events for the matchups are, are dicey. Yeah, yeah. They're dicey. I don't think it means they're bad. It's just- No, no, no... to me, it's a little less exciting- They're more sweaty...
39:14
to rush to bet 'em. Yes, more sweaty. They're- 'Cause those guys are always gonna be around. They're, they're more sweaty for sure. But this is an elevated event, guys, so, um, this is why we're, have the limited field.
39:24
This is why we have the, uh, the g- four guaranteed rounds, all that. So that's, that's what we got going on over there. There was an alt...
39:31
There is an alt tournament going over, going on over in Myrtle Beach as well, if you wanna get going in, in that one. I, I didn't play that one at all. Did you put any on the Myrtle Beach? No, I, I, I didn't.
39:41
Uh, we did, uh, around the world, uh, West Reynolds and I. Mm-hmm. We did talk about that tournament, though, so it is up in the podcast feed, uh, for Long Shots. You can check it out. He did bet it.
39:50
Um, new, new course o- on tour. I'm looking forward to betting it in the future. But you and I, we go off so much data. Mm. Uh, it's, it's, it... Especially with an elevated event going on. Yeah.
39:58
It's just easy not to bet it. I did think EVR, uh, is at the top of the odds board last I checked. He was early. I mean- Yeah... I know they're started now. Um, you know, he was, like, 25 to 1.
40:08
Beau Hossler must have started out well, 'cause he's plus 550 right now. [laughs] I, EVR did, uh, he, he did- Yeah... draw some interest from me.
40:15
Just 25 to 1 in a field that's not all that great when he's actually played some decent golf throughout the season, I thought was a little, a little silly. Yeah.
40:23
I'm looking over, uh, looking over at the leaderboard right now. And like you said, yeah, Beau Hossler is, uh, six under on the round right now. That's not bad. Yeah. It's not a bad start.
40:34
[laughs] Beau Hossler's six under on the round, which is why we're sitting where we're looking. So real quick, AFC East, Kelly. Um- Yeah... the Bills plus 160, Jets two to one, Dolphins two to one, Patriots 25 to 1.
40:43
R- wipe them off the list. They're not winning the division. Mm-hmm. Patriots are, are donezo. Um, do you believe that the Bills are still the favorite? I, I understand they're not much of a favorite.
40:52
It's plus 160, two to one on the other two teams. But d- do, do you think that they're still the favorite? 'Cause I kinda don't. Yeah, I do. You do? But I'm a... Yeah, I'm a Josh Allen ride or die guy, so you know.
41:01
Sorry. I'm with, I'm with my boy Josh Allen. I kinda like the Dolphins. Really? I kinda like the Dolphins. Okay. I don't know r- I don't know why I'm acting that shocked.
41:08
Like, I would be just as shocked if you said Jets there I guess, [laughs] but- I actually don't like the Jets as much. Really? Yeah. Okay.
41:14
Because I think we're putting way too much faith in the fact that an old guy is gonna come off of a major injury and play like the k- the guy that he was before the major injury.
41:23
Like, we're, we're just assuming Aaron Rodgers is gonna come off of a major, major, major injury for an old guy. Yeah.
41:29
I mean, Kelly, I sneeze funny sometimes and my back hurts for three days, and this guy is, you know, he's not that much younger than me, and he is coming off of a major injury to which we're just assuming he's going to be the same player that he was before this major injury.
41:44
I, I just... I can't get there. I think there's just too much assumptions being made from that aspect, which is why I like the Dolphins in this division. I, I... Again, it's, it's... We're picking nits here.
41:53
It's plus 160 to two to one, so I mean, it's not like it's like a- Yeah... a crazy price or anything like that. But I, I actually do like the Dolphins in this division.
41:58
I'm, I'm just conc- I guess I'm concerned about going a- another year this offense. It just...
42:04
It felt like a lot of the Dolphins' success last year was kind of catching some teams off guard with what they were running offensively through the first, you know, half of the season.
42:13
Uh, at least i- in just the offense being so explosive and different. I, I don't know if teams... I, I have a feeling teams are gonna adjust better to that this season, but who knows? How are they- We don't know.
42:22
We don't know that. Did you forget that they signed one Odell Beckham Jr. to be on that team as well? Super. Obvious super. So you have Tyreek Hill, you have Jaylen Waddle, and now you have Odell Beckham Jr.
42:32
I said earlier maybe the best wide receiver three, or I, I forgot about Odell. Odell's probably the best wide receiver three, actually- Yeah, yeah... in the NFL. Uh, we'll have to see on him. I, I...
42:40
There's a massive separ- In my mind, though, between a Tua Tagovailoa and, and Josh Allen is a massive separation. Ooh, listen to you. I, uh- You just can't even get o- you can't get over it.
42:51
You, you, what do you got against- It's Mahomes and Josh Allen's number two for me still... what do you got against Tua? I, I- He's a, he's a, he's a very okay quarterback.
42:59
Cavs and Celtics, 13 and a half in favor of the Celtics at home in this one. 212's the total. If you think the Cavs pull the upset, plus 625. We talked about this one earlier, Kelly, but quick recap for me. Mm-hmm.
43:09
Like, it's just, it's, b- due to what I believe to be the strategy for the Cavs moving forward, which I think you increase the variance in this thing.
43:16
I think you hoist it up as many times you can from three and pray that you make 20 of them. The problem with that is that's also the recipe for this thing to get way, way out of control.
43:26
I know 13 and a half points is a ton of points in the NBA. I understand it's a ton of points in the playoffs, all of that stuff, but the way that I think the Cavs could go about this, that strategy can't get me there.
43:35
I, there probably is a buy point somewhere along the way with the Cavs as the number ke- continues to grow, but I, I can't get there for this one. Yeah, over 29 and a half points for Donovan Mitchell- Yep... for me.
43:45
I'm on that. Uh, I think until we get above 30, that will be a bet for me, like we talked about earlier. High volume, uh, as far as the shots are concerned. Just hopefully he makes as many as he did last game.
43:55
Mavs and Thunder, five points in favor of the Thunder at home. 218 and a half, plus 164 if we think the Mavs win it. Like, I, too much question marks around, around Luka for me.
44:04
M- m- maybe some news throughout the course of the day could swing me one way or the other. Yeah, Thunder team total over, uh, for me over 112 and a half. Don't think they're really slowing down at all last couple games.
44:12
It's been fun. Ben Wilson in this seat tomorrow. Good luck on all your bets. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
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