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May 9, 2025
A Numbers Game | May 9, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | May 9, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Gay Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158. It is Gil Alexander. It is Kelly Bedell. What's happening? What up, man?
0:22
How you doing? I'm good. I'm good. I'm great. It's Friday. It's always great on Friday because, uh, we got Felika and Fezzik on Friday. Uh, Fezzik Fridays at hour number two.
0:31
Chris Felika's, uh, bumped up a little earlier 'cause he's got a thing today. He's got work stuff. He got work stuff. Man has another job. He doesn't just come here and then sleep the rest of the week like a bear would.
0:41
[laughs] He might. He al- he also might feel like that's all he does- Yeah... over the past week, though. I think he was on enough Kentucky Derby shows. You know what he's doing for us today? College football win totals.
0:50
How about that? He's got a lot, too. College football win totals- Got a fire... and more with Christopher Felika, who, uh, when we last spoke...
0:56
By the way, we, I owe a couple apologies to both of these guys, one to each. Chris because we were like, "Oh, Samich hit the superfecta," and, you know, Felika gave us a seven to one horse. Mm-hmm.
1:06
And then, uh, Fezzik, remember when, uh, we thought he cursed a couple weeks ago? No, I wasn't here. Oh, you weren't here. I can't- Well, the day I came back, you guys were still trying to figure that out, I think. Yeah.
1:14
I, I accused him of cursing. I gave the, you know, the guys behind the, guys and gals behind the w- window who make this show happen, they all listened to it. They said, "Oh, he cursed." And he's like, "No, I didn't."
1:24
And we had a couple listeners who, uh, decoded it for us, so an apology to him as well. We'll get into the details of that. Jonathan Davis on the NHL playoffs. What a finish at T-Mobile last night.
1:35
VGK fans don't think it was a great finish, but man, was it amazing. Yeah. Oilers up two-nothing now? Oilers up two-nothing, heading back to Edmonton.
1:44
Um, heading back to, uh, what was Edmonton in, uh, m- well, my, uh, my knowledge, uh- Canada. [laughs] No, no, no. Is it, is it Manitoba, right? Is Edmonton in Manitoba? I don't know. [laughs] I don't know.
1:57
I got my, my regions wrong. Sorry, Toronto. I know you're in On- North America... I know you're in Ontario, Toronto, but Ed- Edmonton, I think, is Manitoba.
2:04
Anyway, uh, they head back to, uh, Edmonton for games three and four with the Oilers up two games to nothing, but in overtime yesterday. And we'll talk with Jonathan Davis about this yesterday.
2:12
It just reminds me, like McDavid and Draisaitl remind me of when I was, you know, watching Caps playoff games in the early '90s, and Lemieux and Jagr would just bury them. That's what it reminds me of.
2:26
Uh, but we'll get to, uh, Jonathan about that and all, both games tonight. Caps won last night as well. Um, only- Edmonton is in Alberta. Edmonton, Alberta, of course. What am I so stupid?
2:34
You've got, uh, you are confusing it with Winnipeg. That's correct. Um, Edmonton, Alberta. I'm, I'm, that is the worst Canadian geography move I've ever made right there.
2:42
Um, okay, uh, we'll get to the NBA here momentarily. There's a lot of things to get to. One, I just have a couple picks I wanna get out. One is a tennis play. Uh, two days ago, two and O, yesterday, four and one.
2:52
Clay looking good until this morning. O and two on a couple big dogs. Oops. The problem is the dogs aren't coming in. The big dogs are not coming in. Come on, dogs. Get it together.
3:01
We, and we probably would've been O and three, but we got the benefit of a walkover. Uh, so the only thing remaining is another dog, Daria Kasatkina, plus 141 against Marta Kostyuk.
3:13
Kostyuk has been playing fantastic, uh, tennis, but I'm going with Kasatkina to be, uh, crafty. She's crafty. Get her, uh, the win here against Kostyuk. That's the remaining tennis play.
3:24
Got a couple things in b- uh, a couple plays in the Padres game at Coors. The Rockies are just dreadful. They got destroyed by the Tigers yesterday, I wanna say by a collective 18 runs. Do I have that right?
3:37
Um, that was just unbelievable yesterday in a double header. I got the Padres minus a half a run first five. We got the Padres in the run line for the full game today at Coors.
3:46
I don't care if Dennis Tankersley's pitching for the Padres. Trying to think of the worst Padres pitcher I can think of historically. 17, uh, no, 18 runs. You're right. Yep. 18 runs.
3:55
Uh, might not have gotten Al- Wow, that's incredible... might not have gotten Alberta, but I got the 18, 18 correct. Jackson Merrill, I also made that play yesterday that, uh, we were talking about.
4:03
I got a MVP, the only one that was available in town yesterday, 50 to one at MGM, so I will be sprinkling that all over town. Um, those are all the plays.
4:11
So again, I wanna get the tennis in 'cause that starts in about 20 minutes. You know how tennis start times go, but in case you want some action during the show, Kasatkina is the play as a dog in Rome.
4:21
All right, uh, NBA, only game last night, T-Wolves off the schneid. They even up their best of seven series against the Steph-less Warriors, and they do so by 24 points.
4:32
They win it coast to coast, led by as many as 25 right before the end of the game. Um, the only Warriors threat came in the third quarter when they cut the lead to seven at one point.
4:43
I mean, this was the game where the T-Wolves scored the first 13 points of the game. Uh, the Warriors were lucky they weren't down 20 earlier. Yeah. Uh, but they scored the first 13 points of the game, did the Warriors.
4:52
There was a moment in the second quarter halfway through where it looked like Anthony Edwards got hurt with the Wolves up 18, but it was more like a Paul Pierce chariot him off the court kind of thing, where he magically appeared just fine in the second half.
5:05
Uh, T-Wolves led by 17 at the half. Uh, as I've mentioned, Dubs got within seven with under seven minutes left in the third quarter, but then the T-Wolves went on a 14 to three run.
5:14
They kicked it back up to 20, and it was Katie bar the door. Uh, Ant 20 points on six of 13 shooting, nine rebounds, five assists, three steals.
5:23
Julius Randle held down the fort most of the game, 24 points, 11 assists, seven boards. The Warriors, 17 turnovers. Their offense just looked absolutely lost without Steph. Jimmy Butler had 17.
5:36
Uh, driving in, was listening to, uh, By the Books with Jensen Lewis. Keith Irizarry was in for our buddy, uh, um- Dave Ross... Dapper Dave "Don't Talk Politics or NFC East" Ross with me. Captain America.
5:48
Captain America. Um, and, uh, I agree with what Zach Cohen. Zach Cohen was on the show, and Zach, I agree with what he said. Jimmy Butler does not look right either.
5:55
So as, as worrisome as Steph is, Steph's not gonna be back till, you know, earliest game six if the Warriors can extend it that far.
6:01
But Jimmy Butler looks like he is still feeling the effects of his fall in the second game against the Rockets, and even though he scored 17, he does not look to score. Yeah. He does not look to, uh, make things happen.
6:11
The Warriors also comically become the first team, do you see this, in NBA playoff history to use 14 different players in one half. Braxton Key even got in there for five seconds. I did not see that. Yeah.
6:24
In one half, that's impressive. That's a, 'cause, 'cause, 'cause basically Steve Kerr is just throwing stuff at the wall. Stuff, by the way. Mm-hmm. Throwing stuff at the wall.
6:33
And he, th- this, as bad as you might have thought it would be without Steph, it could not have looked any worse yesterday. They head back to game three at the Chase Center in, uh, San Francisco.
6:44
Minnesota installed as a five-point favorite in game three. Series price adjusted, T-Wolves now minus 320 in a one-to-one series. Warriors plus 250 on the comeback. Yeah, I don't, I don't think there's any major
6:58
freak-out moment yet. I, I, I agree with you- The Warriors aren't freaking out...
7:00
I agree with you, the Jimmy Butler stuff is concerning 'cause he needs to be near top level for them to survive, uh, some of these games without Steph.
7:09
But y- you kinda, you kinda knew one or two of these games was likely without Steph in, in the lineup.
7:14
Look, Timberwolves finally were able to hit a shot, like that, that, you know, it, that had been a problem for them the past two games going back to last series. Uh, Julius Randle's been awesome. Props to him.
7:25
Anthony Edwards, look, that ankle, that ankle has been, I mean, that's been a thing since last series as well for him, so let's see how that carries over.
7:32
You know, he might've been l- looking okay in the second half, maybe a little, it, it feels a little worse a couple days later after some swelling, something to keep an eye on.
7:39
I'll tell you one, I think one huge positive, uh, for the Warriors in throwing some stuff against the wall is, hey, Jonathan Kuminga's ba- uh, back getting some minutes, and eight for 11 from the field's gonna keep him getting minutes.
7:51
Silver lining. Yeah. Silver lining. Silver lining, yeah.
7:54
Um, by the way, tonight of course in the NBA, this is interesting, Cleveland now up to a three or even a three-and-a-half [clears throat] point favorite, um, against Indiana.
8:03
Again, Cleveland must, a proverbial must-win situation tonight.
8:07
Gotta win, otherwise you're down three to nothing, and once again, no team has ever come back from a three-to-nothing deficit in a best-of-seven series ever in the history of the NBA playoffs. So I'm seeing threes.
8:17
Uh- Dude... there's some three-and-a-halfs s- in some spots.
8:19
And let me just say this, the total, which has remained at 229 and a half in games one and two, and was 229 and a half here in game three, this has now gone down three points sort of out of nowhere, 226 and a half.
8:33
Mm-hmm. Stevie Fezzik will have something to say about that a little later. Mm-hmm, yeah, was noticing that movement this morning. The spread continues to go Cleveland's way.
8:40
Gil, I, it's been a little while since I can remember a game that the books seem to be d- making, uh, taking such a stand on knowing injury information ahead of time, or assuming on injury information, 'cause otherwise this, this line doesn't make any sense.
8:54
From where, where we saw that close in game two, you're only baking in about a point for home court advantage, which does not make much sense, uh, unless you're ver- fairly confident that, like, one of those three Cavaliers players, or multiple, are gonna be back in this game.
9:07
Even if it's all of them, right? Even if it's Garland, Mobley, and, uh, Hunter, should the Cavs be favored by, uh, w- after what you've seen by the Pacers?
9:17
I, I, I will be, I, I don't know, but I will have, I will be w- have my- Yeah... phone in my hand all day, 'cause if those guys get ruled out, I will be, you gonna give me Pacers plus three and a half- No...
9:26
of those guys getting ruled out? I'll be on that side. OKC up to a five-point favorite, uh, at Denver tonight, the, uh, other game that is tonight. That is game three.
9:34
With that series knotted up at one game a piece, but we're back in Denver. That has ticked down a point to 232 and a half on the total as well. OKC minus 450 on the adjusted series price there.
9:45
Yeah, I'll just be, uh, I'll be, be holding on dearly to my, uh, series t- uh, futures tickets for the Thunder.
9:51
Steve Fezzik will have not one, but two NBA plays later, and he will both, they will both be contest plays for him in the VSiN Killer Sports NBA Playoff Challenge, that he leads, by the way.
10:03
Yeah, I dropped another last night, went under on that game. How did that game stay under? I mean, s- go over, I should say. How in the world? A lot of fourth quarter scoring, garbage scoring. Oh my God. Yeah. Yeah.
10:15
Um, the other thing, there, there's a few other things that happened in, uh, in the betting world yesterday. Let's get the golf out of the way here. So, um, did you guys give out this pick or you did not?
10:26
Nah, no, I mean, it's first round leader stuff. I usually don't bet it till, like, Wednesday night. So it was, it was one of those, we were gonna try to squeeze in yesterday at some point on the show- Yeah...
10:34
'cause it started later, but we didn't get an a- opportunity here. But you didn't do it on long shots either. Um, we didn't do it on long shots.
10:39
I don't usually bet first round leader stuff till Wednesday night when I have, like, the clearest vision on what the weather's gonna look like then, that, that next day.
10:47
Um, so a lot of it's just out of habit, unfortunately. But yeah, it's, uh, Keith Mitchell, man. [laughs] Keith Mitchell. One of the most- What was his number? One of the cra- 55 to one over at MGM was what it was.
10:55
Do we, do we have that tweet about his, uh, first round, first- Yeah, we do... first round prowess? We do. Keith Mitchell, first round juggernaut in, uh, in golf.
11:04
Not a, not a tournament juggernaut, but a first round juggernaut. It's, uh, what's, what's the, what's the dividing line? Here it is. Keith Mitchell, this is from Justin Ray Golf, who always puts out great golf tweets.
11:14
"Keith Mitchell's last five opening rounds in PGA Tour stroke play events, scoring average 64.2. Position, first, first, second, second, first." [upbeat music] It's wild, man. Birdies or better per round, 7.8.
11:27
Are you s- are you kidding me? Ugh, just can't keep it up for four s- four rounds, Gil, but he is the first round the king, man. Man, man.
11:35
It is f- for him the first round leader this year, and then Rory McIlroy outright, so that'd been the way to go in golf betting.
11:40
All right, we'll talk hockey with Jonathan Davis on the other side, and, uh, oh, there's a new pope with betting implications, not necessarily in that order. Next on The Numbers Game right here at VSiN....
11:58
game on VSiN, the sports betting network Now on vsin.com, Zachary Cohen's NBA best bets, Greg Peterson's MLB picks, Nigel Seeley's Premier League best bets as the Premier League season winds down.
12:12
Coming up today, Jonathan Davis' NHL props and picks, Steve Makinen's NBA and MLB analytics reports, and Adam Burke's Peter Pan Stakes preview. How about that? How about that?
12:24
Uh, 14 months of VSiN Pro for only $199, that's the main thing, with promo code PRO. Let me say that again, 14 months of VSiN Pro for only $199 with promo code PRO. That's at vsin.com/subscribe.
12:39
Uh, before we get to Jonathan Davis, the aforementioned Jonathan Davis, talk about, uh, hockey, uh, the biggest news globally yesterday, and it has betting, uh, implications, uh, we have a new pope, Kelly.
12:49
I got so wrapped up in this yesterday. Who- Oh my gosh... I don't know if this happened at, when we were on air or right after. Yeah, it was somewhere in that time. Yeah, I was confused about that as well.
12:58
Well, we got white smoke, that means they, uh, they have s- they selected a new pope. Uh, congratulations to, uh, Robert Francis Prevost, uh, from the south side of Chicago. Villanova grad. Villanova grad.
13:11
Uh, apparently big Villanova f- and a Chicago White Sox fan by all indications. Um, he, uh, he is going by, what is it, Pope Leo XIV. Mm-hmm. That is what he's going by.
13:22
Now, I, uh, when sports, when the NBA and the NHL has been concluding all these nights during these last few weeks, I, uh, I'm like to wind me down and get me to bed I d- I was like, you know, searching HBO Max or Prime.
13:35
Anyway, Conclave is available on Prime. Yeah, we were talking about this the other day.
13:39
And so I, I actually watched the one movie, it's the one movie I watch is Conclave, and I watched it in about three sittings 'cause I fall asleep, right, twice. Oh, yeah. The first two. I'm the same way. Yeah.
13:47
I can't make it through a movie in one sitting. By the way, it has nothing to do with the quality of the movie, just me falling asleep. Yeah. It was, it was really good.
13:53
It was one of those, I will say, that as great as it was, like when the credits come you're like, "Oh, I guess it's over," right? [laughs] So they, they picked a pope, okay, great.
14:00
But Conclave, now I don't know, the fascinating thing to me about Conclave, if it is in any way an accurate depiction of how a pope is selected, um, what you learn from it is not only is it the sequestering of, of the, uh, the votes, right, of the people who then, the, uh, the cardinals who make the votes and try these votes on, on s- you know, several ballots before they can actually pick one.
14:23
That's why you see black smoke, black smoke, and then finally white smoke when they have a majority.
14:27
But what I didn't know, and again, if it is an accurate depiction, what I didn't know is that there's a lot of politics involved. So there's a conservative faction, right, that backs a candidate, if you will.
14:37
There's a more liberal, uh, you know, uh, faction that backs another candidate, just to make it very simple.
14:43
Um, it obviously gets really nuanced on, in the movie, but what's interesting about this is from a betting perspective,
14:50
Bookmaker, an offshore, didn't have this gentleman up as a bettable option until someone requested it. Mm-hmm. And when someone requested it, they put up Robert Francis Prevost from the United States at 325 to 1.
15:07
He closed at 50 to 1, uh, at, at BetMGM and not in the United States, but other BetMGM properties. Yeah, so- 50 to 1 to be the next pope.
15:15
Um, 19 to, 19% of bets, this is from John Ewing at MGM, 19% of bets, the most were on Pietro Parolin from Italy to be the pope. Uh, he obviously did not win. 58% of the money was on Luis Antonio Tagle.
15:27
So, uh, i- you know, it's a, uh, it's, it's pretty fascinating. So someone, I guess from a betting perspective, what's interesting is that someone knew something.
15:36
I don't know if they knew someone who knew this guy, who was like, "Oh yeah," like, "he might really genuinely be the next pope." Like, maybe he, uh, but you're sequestered, so how do you know, right?
15:47
Um, on the blockchain-based site in Polymarket, six users profited at least $20,000, uh, according to the publicly available ledger at Polymarket.
15:57
Uh, someone won 63,000 plus dollars on a 1,000 plus dollar bet, um, Just Punched, a user on Polymarket. And then Kalshi, another, um, you know, uh, platform, someone won $52,000 plus on a $526 wager.
16:15
So it just is amazing. People profited from this, and, uh, I don't know. There you go. If there's inside information on this, there's inside information on anything. Yeah, I don't know how mu- I don't know how much is...
16:25
Do you actually think it is that, or is it just, uh, just people wanting to bet on the American? It could be that, but, like, specifically to ask Bookmaker, "Hey, could you put this one dude down for me?" Mm-hmm. Maybe.
16:35
Maybe it's ju- maybe they just got lucky, or maybe they knew someone. It's wild, though. Like, that is- But, but if the movie's a depiction, you, there's no way you could know anything.
16:42
I was te- I was texting with Dinsick yesterday 'cause I know he had been tracking all this stuff. Yeah. And it was like, I was like, "Was this on anybody's radar?" He's like, "No," like, "not at all."
16:49
Remember, remember- Not, not from a betting standpoint or from a- We brought it up on a Numbers Game two, three weeks ago, and there's a couple listeners who were, like, clutching their pearls about it, but I was like, "This is a real thing."
16:57
Mm. "People bet on this." Uh, to hockey. How's that for an- [laughs] How's that for an in... [laughs] A, uh, non-artistic- Yeah... uh, segue. Uh, Jonathan Davis joins us now to talk NHL.
17:08
Uh, obviously, uh, some people's religion in their, in their own right. Jonathan Davis, not only our betting analyst, but you can follow him @WestCoastHockey, that's West Coast H-K-Y, on Twitter. How you doing, Jonathan?
17:19
I am doing great, guys. How are you this morning? Doing very well. We have a Twitter question for you before we get into the NHL.
17:25
Manny Davison, "Any plays from you on the 2025 World Championship starting in Stockholm this morning?" I just took a quick perusal. Look, Canada is plus 140. They are the favorite.
17:38
Uh, as I was telling you guys during the break here, uh, Nathan MacKinnon, Sidney Crosby, Marc-André Fleury, amongst three of Canada's players. I just took a quick look at, um, at leading goal scorers.
17:50
I, I think, I know Canada's got at least the top six, so that puts them in a pretty good spot. Nathan MacKinnon nine to one to lead the, uh, the tournament in goals.
17:59
So I'll go Canada 140 to win and, uh, you know, little, a smaller play on MacKinnon at nine to one- To lead the tournament in goals. All right.
18:08
Let's talk about, uh, yesterday before we talk about tonight's NHL games in the playoffs. Yesterday, Caps even up the series against Carolina. They bounce back with a three to one win.
18:18
That series now even, headed back to Carolina, where the, uh, Hurricanes are gonna be a minus 192 favorite in game three. They're a minus 230 adjusted series price favorite.
18:28
But the big one last night, man, I was, I was mentioning this earlier. This feels to me, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl give me Lemieux-Jagr vibes as a Caps fan, and just seeing them just tear your heart out.
18:41
Uh, the overtime goal where McDavid, you know, got the puck on the fly, Jack Eichel just had no chance. He was flat-footed.
18:49
Goes by him, feeds Draisaitl, and, uh, Edmonton now with a two to nothing lead over VGK in that best of seven series, with, uh, Edmonton now a minus 550 adjusted series favorite.
19:00
Only minus 125 in game three, it should be pointed out, back in Edmonton, Alberta. What are your thoughts on both of these series? All right, quickly, 'cause I know we're short on time.
19:09
The Cap- look, I, at this price, I like Washington. Carolina has struggled five on five. They've actually, I think they've been outscored 13 to 12, or maybe they're up by one.
19:19
They, th- they're, look, this is a, you know, we've essentially had two one-goal games. I'll continue to take Washington at plus money.
19:26
VGK and Edmonton, um, yeah, look, as Connor told s- our, our, our story bond, Tony, who was working for Espn last night, you know, they were pretty qui- he and Leon were pretty quiet throughout the game, but when, you know, game on the line there in overtime, they came through.
19:41
Here's the one thing with Edmonton. They're no longer about just Connor and Leon. They've got 15 different players this year who have scored a goal in the playoffs. That's number one in the NHL.
19:50
18 different players with a point, that's number two. Interesting that they're up 2-0.
19:55
Last series they were down 0-2, but, you know, they smell blood, and they're, they're, uh, I mean, it, it's kind of hard to deny what's going on.
20:03
I did have Vegas, though, going into the series, and I had Vegas as my representative for the West to win the Cup.
20:09
My very uneducated eye, I, I'm getting Oilers vibes to win the Cup, I really am, and with the way they come back in these games. Uh, tonight, Toronto and Florida. Toronto up two to nothing. We're back in Florida.
20:20
Uh, Panthers are a minus 238 favorite in this game. Toronto obviously up two games, a minus 230 series favorite. How are you playing game three tonight? Yeah, ridiculous price on Florida, just, uh, way overpriced to me.
20:31
But I'm gonna target, you know, one of, one of the best trends that I've been following throughout the playoffs is the team that loses the previous game to score the first goal in the next game.
20:42
That one is, it's 28 and 14 that they score the first goal. It's 29 and 13 that they score that first goal, or they score a goal at least in the first period. But I'm gonna take Florida right now, minus 170.
20:54
It is pricey just, just to score the first goal. Brad Marchand of the Florida Panthers, I'd like him to pick up just a point tonight, or you could even target him for a goal and an assist.
21:05
You're gonna get better value if he strikes on one of those. He's got the fourth most points in, uh, lifetime against the Maple Leafs in the playoffs. William Nylander for Toronto, an anytime goal.
21:15
He's got six goals in eight games in the playoffs. He's got nine goals in his last 10 playoff games. I like him. And Max Pacioretty of Toronto, been reborn in the playoffs. Play him again for a goal and an assist.
21:28
Th- you get five to one on a goal, three to one on an assist. It's better value than playing him for just to get a point, so you can split up your, your unit in any way you want on that.
21:37
Pacioretty, not one rupture of an Achilles, but a re-rupture, three total surgeries, back from all that.
21:42
And then, uh, VG- excuse me, Dallas and Winnipeg, game two back in Winnipeg, uh, tonight with Dallas up one to nothing in the series. The Jets a slight favorite in this game. How you playing this?
21:52
Yeah, so again, Winnipeg lost last game. Play them to score the first goal of, of this game tonight. Uh, you can get that at minus 115. But you gotta go with Mikko Rantanen of the Dallas Stars to do something tonight.
22:04
He's been in on their last 12 goals. He's got back-to-back hat tricks. So, you know, you can play him. You can get a little f- creative if you want. You know, anytime goal is plus 175. Two goals is plus 1,200.
22:16
Three goals is plus 7,500. I mean, uh, play him at least for two goals and, uh, you know, a little bit of pizza money there for sure. Um, I, I, I do like the Dallas team total over two and a half.
22:28
That's my best bet, guys. Connor, Connor Hellebuyck has given up at least three goals in all but one playoff game this year. Mikko Rantanen and Connor McDavid right now co-favorites for the Conn Smythe.
22:39
Jonathan, thank you so much. Appreciate it, man. Always a pleasure, gentlemen. Have a great rest of your day. NHL playoffs, so good. Thank you, Jonathan. We'll come back. Chris Felica next on a Numbers Game.
22:50
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. It's Gil Alexander.
23:00
It's my little buddy Kelly Bidlack, everybody, alongside. We got tweets and beating the book. Always appreciate the feedback. Best listeners in the game. Have I ever mentioned that before?
23:08
Michael Burns, "I got plus 160 on Daria. Congrats, Kelly, on the first round, uh, leader," he says as well. Thank you. Uh, Dan Wickhorst, uh, you are right, @Dan. I, I messed up the Edmonton, Alberta thing.
23:18
"That hurts, Gil," he says. "Have a great day." I know, my bad. Completely botched that.
23:23
Uh, Scott, New York, Mess60, "No, Gil, if you only lived in a state where gambling was legal, I got Jackson, Maryland, 80 to 1 at DK," at DraftKings. Okay. Uh, good for you.
23:32
Jack Olachire, "Gil, is Dennis Tankersley," any relation to Dennis Eckersley? "Asking for a friend or maybe a brother." No, two different humans. Two different humans. Mm-hmm.
23:40
Chance Copperpot, "Now that Jordan Hudson has been banned from the UNC facilities and their games, uh, is in the win total over," oh, "and their games, is the win total over on the Tar Heels a bet, or are we still going under?"
23:53
Did you hear about this? Mm-hmm. Sure did. Um, Pablo Torre, our buddy Pablo Torre. Can we call him our buddy?
23:59
Uh, he talked with 11 different sources reportedly, 11 different sources, it says in this New York Post article, that say that the UNC administration...
24:09
has banned Jordan Hudson, Bill Belichick's girlfriend, from UNC's football facility.
24:15
She will not be on the field, she will not be in the building, and in fact, uh, one of the quotes was one source, quote, "Don't think you'll be hearing much from Jordan moving forward." The other story- Yeah...
24:26
about this that Pablo, uh, talked about is that the, uh, the family is very concerned that this will affect Bill's legacy. It's a bizarre story, man And that they are investigating her as well. Investigating her, okay.
24:38
Uh, well, it's a bizarre story. It's probably best for everybody involved though that if this happens now, and just move on. I like it. Good for you, UNC.
24:47
John U, "Interesting read on how the experienced poly market trader bet the pope market and won. He also won on the presidential election. Per your discussion today, this guy might have moved the market on the pope."
24:56
I will read that article once we're off air. That's interesting. Uh, Kyle Firestein, "I wonder if the pope markets have Italian versus the field odds like golf." That I did not see. I don't know.
25:06
[laughs] Uh, NCI95 gambler, "This is not gambling related, but can you ask the audience if Twitter is having problems? I haven't received any notifications since last night. Thanks, guys." No, it's working for us.
25:15
And then I'm here for all your questions, sports gambling or not. And then, uh, T. Shell Doll, "Turning in late. Did you give out any tennis plays this morning that haven't started yet?"
25:22
Yes, Daria Kasatkina, which would start any time now against Marta Kostyuk. Christopher Felica is the bear, ladies and gentlemen. He works at Fox Sports. You can follow him on Twitter at Chris Felica, F-A-L-L-I-C-A.
25:34
Comes to us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. And Chris, before we move on to anything else, my sincerest apology, because while we were slurping sammich last week for a superfecta- Unreal...
25:43
we let it sort of slip till the next segment that you also gave us a seven to one play, so- I know, and you- you're forgiven... my apologies. You- you're- you're- you're forgiven.
25:53
I'm, I'm cur- I am gonna watch that, uh, Kasatkina-Kostyuk match because that- that'll be interesting post-match now, uh, because we, we know about, uh, like Svitolina and a lot of the, the Ukrainian tennis players, how they won't shake hands with, with anyone affiliated with, with Russia, and now Kasatkina has a, a Australian citizenship, so may- maybe there'll be a, uh, a mending of the fences there with, uh- Hmm...
26:15
the Ukrainian Kostyuk and the, and Kasatkina now, who's gonna be under the, uh, Australian flag. We have to watch. Yeah. Well, people should watch all, all Marta Kostyuk matches just on principle alone- I agree...
26:24
if you know what I mean. She's got a cute little dog too. A, a what now? [laughs] A dog. Cute little dog. Dog. Yeah. Oh. That's scary. Oh, you haven't seen the, the, the videos of- Thank God...
26:32
her and her and their dog on the court afterwards and stuff? Yeah, sure. Very, very cute little dog. Oh, Lord. [laughs] Uh, okay. Uh, do you have any horse racing, or are we going straight to college football?
26:40
What do we got today? Uh, no, no hor- no horse racing this week, and I, I'm gonna be away obviously next week for, uh, the, the Preakness, but I'll, I'll be back for, uh, for Belmont for sure.
26:48
But yeah, no, no horse racing. Soccer's kind of winding down. Uh, should, should have a really, uh, competitive Champions League final with Inter Milan, um- Okay... in there between- And you, and you will-... PSG...
27:00
and Fox has Belmont, right? So you'll be all in coat and tie. Yes. You'll be all dressed up for that? Exactly.
27:06
I'll look a lot prettier than I do right now having not, having not shaved in a, in a few days, sitting here with my dome, dome shining here in the light. Okay. Let's go to college football. This is your- Yeah...
27:15
bread and butter, of course. Uh, Big Noon Saturday is where, uh, you can find Chris during the college football season. Yep. So you have not one, not two, but nine, nine, count 'em, nine season win totals.
27:25
Let's begin with Kelly's alma mater, the FSU Seminoles. Do I? Yeah, yeah, I guess it is nine. Yeah, I, I, I think I've given this one out on the air already, so I'm not gonna go, uh, too much into detail.
27:36
I, I bet, I think when I gave it out, Florida State under seven and a half minus 120. Now it's six and a half plus 110, so the, the number has come down.
27:46
You can either, A, uh, take a position where you can try and middle this and maybe FSU, uh, lands on seven and you, and you can win the under seven and a half, win the over six and a half. But, but I don't know.
27:57
Like I, I'm not seeing, I think they have a lot of roster holes. I think the way the schedule shakes out, uh, is isn't good.
28:03
I don't know if quarterback Thomas Castellanos will, a guy who basically quit on BC, uh, and is now the quarterback, if he's gonna be able to survive in Gus Malzahn's offense.
28:12
So I am, uh, I'm gonna press in more and go under six and a half at plus money as well, and ba- basically if they land on seven, fine, it, it'll be a watch, but I don't see eight and four here for Florida State at all.
28:24
All right, Cade Clubnik coming back to Clemson here, but you're going under on the Tigers. I, I am, and it's hard to say.
28:30
I mean, I'm, uh, I, I was a big fan of this Clemson program for a long time, but you look last year, and despite the fact that they won the ACC, like they really didn't beat anybody.
28:42
Uh, you got blown out in the opening game of the year by Georgia. You, you were non-competitive on your home field against Louisville.
28:48
Yeah, you, you ga- you gave a game away against, uh, South Carolina that maybe you should've won, but you also stole a game at Pitt that you, uh, had no business winning.
28:57
They were one of the better teams in the country last year in turnover margin, which is always kind of an indicator for either positive or negative regression. You got the opener against LSU this year.
29:08
The road schedule, you got Georgia Tech, who's always tricky. BC with Bill O'Brien, who, uh, obviously, uh, they played better towards the end of last year. Louisville beat them last year.
29:18
South Carolina, who beat them last year. They gotta go, uh, to both of those places. That's five potentially losable games.
29:24
And then you've got the SMU team that they beat in Charlotte last year in the ACC championship game, who should be good as well. So like I, n- 10 to beat me I think is really, really tough.
29:35
I think this Clemson team is a little bit over-hyped because of Clubnik.
29:39
Uh, I know they got some good young receivers too, but I think, uh, Clemson under nine and a half at plus money is a good little contrarian play there.
29:45
All right, Indiana coming off the greatest college football season they've ever had in school history. [laughs] 11 and two.
29:51
Uh, quarterback room with, uh, four guys, including two brothers, two, uh, biological brothers, the Mendoza brothers. You are going which way on Indiana?
30:00
Yeah, I'm gonna go under eight and a half, and it's, uh, mi- minus 122 I saw at FanDuel. Yeah, the, the non-conference schedule is as laughable as it was last year.
30:09
Old Dominion, Indiana State, uh, and, and Kennesaw State. But you, you look at the The way the schedule changes this year for them. Last year they had road games at UCLA, Northwestern, and Michigan State.
30:21
Now they gotta go to Iowa, Oregon, and Penn State. That is a massive switch and flip in the schedule. So in addition to those games, you, you assume they're gonna lose all three of those.
30:32
So if you say that, then that means they basically have to run the table against Illinois, Michigan State, UCLA, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Purdue to hit nine wins.
30:42
Again, they, they were very, uh, positive in the turnover margin last year. Outside of the injury, uh, at quarterback that caused Brock to miss a couple of weeks, they were relatively injury-free last year.
30:52
So like, a- again, great season last year. I don't think they're gonna completely, uh, fall by the wayside and go four and eight, but nine and three out of Indiana to beat me I think is highly unlikely.
31:02
All right, give us like 20, 30 seconds on the rest of these. Uh, yeah. We'll, uh, we'll go, uh, Wisconsin under five and a half again. This is a team that didn't, uh, do a whole lot in the portal.
31:12
I think that it was a, a net negative for them. Uh, the way the schedule, uh, breaks down, uh, you're not gonna beat Ohio State, uh, you're not gonna beat Alabama.
31:21
I, I think it's another bowl-less season, uh, for the Badgers. So I'm under five and a half on the, on Wisconsin. Uh, Texas Tech under eight and a half minus 115.
31:30
Uh, the Red Raiders are a team that are very, very highly thought of, uh, after a, a very active transfer portal period.
31:38
But again, this is a team that you've got five road games against Arizona State, Houston, Kansas State, Utah, and West Virginia, uh, in, in the, in the Big 12. All kinda toss-up-y type losable games.
31:50
And remember last year too, they were six and one in one-score games, so they got a benefit of toss-up games last year. Maybe this year they don't. Under eight and a half Texas Tech. I'm over 10 and a half on Oregon.
32:01
I think the assumption is a lot of people, uh, are gonna be under on Oregon just thinking they're gonna take a step back a- after, uh, losing Gabriel and everything else last year.
32:10
But I'm not giving them a loss at Penn State. Who's to say they're not gonna go to Penn State and win? Like, that's a very winnable game, and you look at the rest of the schedule, it's super manageable.
32:20
So even if they lose at Penn State, I think 11 and one, uh, i- is likely. Uh, Purdue under three and a half I think is really, really juiced. Uh, close to $2.
32:29
You can get under two and a half at plus money if you like, but the three and a half kinda gives you that extra game buffer. Uh, I don't know how they're winning two Big 10 games.
32:38
Uh, one I'm kinda high on here, I think maybe higher than most, is Auburn. Uh, over seven and a half. Uh, they gave games away last year against Oklahoma and Missouri. Uh, they were five and seven. The offense struggled.
32:49
You bring in Jackson Arnold at quarterback. Uh, you bring in Eric Singleton to a really good wide receiver room. A lot of upperclassmen on the offensive line. Uh, non-con- three non-conference wins.
32:59
Maybe you beat Baylor. I think that schedule's manageable. And I even saw Auburn at like 35 to one to win the SEC. So, uh, that might be worth a little, uh, little bit of a stab there too.
33:09
And you can read the other ones on the screen too, LSU under eight and a half. Um, it, it was another one that I liked as well. That's right. That's 10. That was the last one. We got to 'em all. Yep. We got to 'em all.
33:17
We did. Yeah. Who's, who's- I did better with the timing, Gil. What's that? I heard, I heard you calling me out last week. I did better with the timing, being able to read the clock.
33:25
[laughs] And what did I say when someone asked, "Who's, who's the most likely to run into the wall?" And the answer was you. Mm-hmm. Exactly. Yeah. [laughs] And someone who works in television- [laughs]...
33:34
knows how to take a hit. Palica sure does run into the w- run into the clock every now and then. You get that criticism a lot, Chris. I bet. I, I love that I have these conversations on air. Thank you, Chris.
33:43
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34:26
Oh, it's so great. So great. I, I got two different friends who've already booked it. They've already used it. I'm thinking about booking it and I live here. Yeah. That's actually not a bad idea. Little staycation.
34:36
Little staycation for a weekend. What are the chances of, of you coming out there and me just, "Is that Gil on a daybed? What is he doing out there?"
34:41
[laughs] The, uh- [laughs] You know, thi- this one came down, this news coming down right now, Gil. I was gonna ask you about this with, uh, Jayden Higgins I believe it was that I saw this with earlier.
34:51
Uh, this is kind of more of a question, but, uh, Colts have signed first round pick Tyler Warren to a four-year, fully guaranteed $20.9 million contract. That includes 11.88 million in si- uh, signing bonus.
35:05
What's, what's with like s- fully guaranteed deals starting to happen now for these rookies? I am not savvy enough with contracts- Yeah. 'Cause-...
35:13
to know if, if that's a, a, a development that is permanent or- Well, apparently it is a development this year... no, that is permanent, I mean? Or what- Oh, okay... or what is... Yeah, I don't know what's at play there.
35:23
I, I don't remember- Yeah... hearing anything about like, "Hey, this is coming, this is coming to the NFL," right? Like- No... it's a little interesting. Uh, we get tweets @BeatingTheBook, always appreciate it.
35:33
This is from, uh, [laughs] this is from Larry Fresh, "One thing you can count on, Gil letting you know if an athlete has ever torn his Achilles." Listen, I can't... First of all, let me just say this.
35:41
We're all on the same email chain, all of us. [laughs] I- It's Achilles. Subject Achilles. Larry, you know how hard it is for me to keep a straight face when he says stuff like that?
35:49
[laughs] I'm like, "He can't, he doesn't even know what team the guy's on and he knows he's had two torn Achilles."
35:53
Well, the reason I know this is because someone pointed it out, one of our great listeners pointed it out to me on Twitter yesterday, that Max Pacioretty had a, he ruptured his Achilles, then he came back too soon, [laughs] what does this sound like boys and girls, right?
36:09
Three months later, he re-ruptured it. He actually had to have a third surgery, which he kept hush-hush, sat out for a whole year, and now is back playing. Good for him. Wow. Yeah. That is a lot of time to miss.
36:22
Yeah, I mean, and especially by the way, he's at an advanced age when it comes to, uh, professional sports of course.
36:29
So, uh, you know, he's 36 years old, and the fact that he's playing for the, uh, the Leafs and playing well, good for him. But- Get, get your doctor, uh, get your doctor brother on the phone.
36:37
We gotta, I need to know how the, how the Achilles would be different in a skate boot as compared to like a sneaker. You know what I mean? Like- Oh, much more, I, I would...
36:47
I mean, but you're skating, you're cutting back and forth, you're doing all this stuff, you know, it's... I don't know. We'll, we'll call him now. It's interesting. Let's call him now. Let's call [laughs] Uh, Tom F.
36:56
[laughs] Quoting me. He goes, "Acute what now? I was in tears, LOL." [laughs] Yeah, I don't know what Falica said at first. I was like, "What now?"
37:03
Uh, Kevin Ryan, "Gil, I know you recap the bets at the end of the show, but I missed the Bears last pick after Auburn." The one after Auburn was LSU, under eight and a half wins from Falica.
37:13
Rick- Yeah, we might be splitting up G Bank, uh, today, 'cause- Too many, too many places to put on one sheet Yeah, 'cause Fezzik ain't gonna have much time in that final segment- That's right...
37:19
if we're going over everything. Rick Ollier, "Are we sure that in June of 2000 Dennis Tankersley should have been traded to the Padres for Ed Sprague?" [laughs] That's right, I'm not so sure.
37:29
And then, uh, Utopia @TwoTopia says, "We missed the Bears final college total. Too much chatter and music kicked in. We heard eight, couldn't make out the team." LSU under eight and a half.
37:41
You're saying we're chattering over the picks? Is that what we're- Yeah. We shouldn't do that. Shut up, Kelly. Shut up, Kelly. I was gonna ask him 'cause he had, he had unders on Florida State and Clemson.
37:49
I wanted to know who's the best team in the ACC this year. Uh, not Florida State. I was just- No... I was just setting him up to say Miami, I guess, but- No. He, his alma mater.
37:57
Uh, Jason Weingarten joins us from under a cloud of smoke, ladies and gentlemen, @spreadapedia on Twitter, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Jason? Pretty good. How's it going? Good.
38:07
Were you the, were you one of these bettors on one of these exchanges who were, who, uh, bet on the pope correctly? Was that you?
38:13
No, I don't, I don't do exchange betting, but I did discuss the, the pope betting with one of my friends like a week or two ago and, and we did find it odd that the US had the second most, uh, cardinals in the conclave.
38:28
And then I never- Oh... kinda followed up on that- Ooh... after that, but I, I was not surprised.
38:34
Um, this is my third conclave of my adult life that I've followed, you know, somewhat, and I, I now realize that all three times had you actually analyze this, uh, the, it was pretty obvious in, in retrospect.
38:51
Um, but unfortunately I spend zero time following up on Vatican politics day to day, so- Yeah... I had no clue.
38:57
And I, I did, I just, another thing I wanted to point out, I thought it was interesting following this market how absolutely made up the odds were at the top of the board. Mm. It had no- Yep... bearing on anything.
39:07
Everybody was completely clueless. Um, I thought that was, that was interesting. I wish I had seen, getting back to the fact that I, I watched conclave over the course of the last week, I wish I had watched it sooner.
39:19
Well, yeah.
39:19
I wish I had watched it earlier because I think if I had watched it earlier, that exactly what you were talking about, Jason, would've kicked in in my brain and been like, "Oh, maybe I should go and find out what the sort of breakdown is of cardinals in this conclave."
39:33
Right, right. So- And maybe then I would've thought, but, but I, I was watching it half asleep last week So when you were telling me you started watching- Italy's first, the US is second, and Brazil is, was third.
39:41
I, I actually found that interesting. Wow. I wouldn't have guessed, guessed that. You were saying, sir?
39:45
So when you, when, when you were saying you started watching this, you didn't, you, you weren't aware this was going on? No, no, no, I was completely aware it was going on. Oh, okay.
39:52
But, but, but at the time of night that, while I'm falling asleep watching conclave, it never hit my brain like, "Hmm, maybe I should now think to bet this." Look for a bet? Yeah. [laughs] Yeah. Yeah, I hear you.
40:03
No, it didn't occur to me because I just, again, I found the fact that politics are involved. 'Cause who would the, uh, maybe I'm naive. Who would've thought that picking a pope, right?
40:11
'Cause you think the pope is, picking a pope is a sacred- Mm-hmm... uh, uh, thi- sort of thing, says the tribesman, right? That I didn't realize that politics are involved.
40:19
And if you watch this movie, if, again, if it's an accurate depiction, clearly politics are even involved in this. So anyway.
40:26
Um, anyway, and before we get onto your picks, are you, uh, you happy that Jordan Hudson has been banned from the UNC, uh, football facilities, Jason? I know you're obsessed with this story as well.
40:36
It's not that I'm happy or not happy, I just wanna point out, like I, I said on Twitter this morning, I can't think of another Division I college football coach whose wife or girlfriend has to be formally banned from the facilities.
40:49
Um, this is just clearly not a normal situation, and it's taking a while for the collective consciousness of sports media to kinda come to terms with it, but this is not normal, and we're just gonna keep pretending this is normal until, uh, it gets worse.
41:04
But my, uh, my statement on this situation is I hope his children have hired their own attorney to look at any changes to Bill Belichick's will because, um, if this was my family, I would personally be incredibly concerned for- Oh, they are...
41:19
uh, somebody like Bill Belichick. According to reports, they are very concerned. And, uh- They absolutely should be. Yeah.
41:24
I mean, they should, they should be hiring lawyers to, to get this, this lady, uh, away from their father- Well, from a, from a foot-...
41:31
uh, if necessary From a football perspective it does, I mean, it's hard not to let it seep into you to, to think, "This could be a disaster," right? I know you w- by the way, good on UNC for putting- Football coaches-
41:43
Go ahead... football coaches have to have an attitude of, of respect, you know, of leadership, and this is not a man that you could look up to and say, "This is normal." Um, this is just, it's gonna take a while.
41:57
It might take another week or another month for, you know, the collective consciousness of sports media to, to come to terms with this. But sooner or later this will come to a head and it will end badly.
42:07
I'm confident in saying that. I'm sure Lombardi's got it all under control. All right, what did you play in, uh, baseball today, Jason? Got a couple plays today. Actually pretty excited.
42:17
I got the, uh, the Atlanta Braves minus 140 against one of the, uh, biggest loser franchises in baseball, the Pittsburgh Pirates. They seem to not be able to do anything right right now.
42:27
Um, the San Diego Padres With, uh, R. Velasquez, Randy Velasquez pitching, um, I had an error here. It said Vince Velasquez was pitching for the Padres, and I was like, "Vince Velasquez? He's still around?"
42:40
But no, it's R. Velasquez, Randy Velasquez. Um, I got the Padres minus 161 against the Rockies here. I have the Dodgers plus 108 today against, uh, the Diamondbacks. Yeah, Arizona Diamondbacks. And, uh,
42:56
last play, Baltimore Orioles minus 138. I know the Orioles have been really bad. I do think they're still gonna turn it around. I'm not worried about them. Yeah, one, one small correction.
43:07
It's Randy Vasquez, Jason, by the way, not Velasquez. It's Randy Vasquez. Yeah, Vasquez, not... Uh, and my, my, I had Velasquez. It's, it's just an error on the- Yeah... pitching schedule.
43:15
I, I too have the Padres, I too have the Padres run line, both first five and full game. The Rockies lost by 18 collective runs in a doubleheader to the Tigers, and I just wanna say this.
43:26
Do you ever remember, and I know it's early May, and I know we tend not to try to overreact to these things, but I'm overreacting. I am, I am okay with this.
43:34
I've never seen a worse collection of teams at the bottom, and the Rockies are the worst of the worst. I think they may be worse than the White Sox of last year. They're so bad.
43:43
Is, I mean, the ever-widening chasm, does this just keep getting worse and worse from year to year? Yeah, bad organizations continue to, to be bad, and good organizations continue to be better.
43:55
Baseball's the kind of thing where if you're not constantly trying to get better and trying to innovate, you're gonna be falling behind faster and faster, and we're seeing it with some of these bad organizations that aren't committed to spending money or winning, that they're continuing to fall behind, and they're practically not even playing the same game.
44:12
They... A lot of these teams just at this point are closer to Triple-A franchises than they are the top of the league, so yeah, I agree with you.
44:19
Jason Weingarten, everybody, from under a cloud of smoke courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Thank you, Jason. Enjoy your weekend. Thank you. See you next week. My man.
44:28
Coming back, we'll talk some NBA and Fezzik Fridays. This is a Numbers Game right here at BSNN.
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