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Nov 11, 2025
A Numbers Game | November 11, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | November 11, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
44:47
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander, and that right there, everybody, is Kelly Bidlin.
0:21
Hey, how we doing? What's happening? Lights, camera, action. Let's go, Gil. Lights, camera, action. We got a show today. Yeah, we do. We got a good show. That, that's a great, uh, intro. We got a show. We got a show.
0:30
Yeah. We got a show. Maybe you'll like it, maybe you won't. We got hockey, we got college hoops, we got college football, we got fantasy, we got NBA, we got it all. NFL, of course, top of the heap.
0:39
Jay Cohn on the NHL, Drew Dincic on the NFL and NBA. What a night in the association- Oh, it was so good... last night.
0:46
Victor Wembanyama calmly hitting a three to tie and a three to put the Spurs ahead last night was probably the top of the, uh, the whole thing. But there was a bunch of OT games. There was just incredible performances.
0:58
Oh, g- I, uh- Uh. We'll get into it after Monday Night Football- Yeah... 'cause there, there's probably about five endings that are worth, worth discussing. Incredible. Incredible.
1:05
Jeff Erickson on fantasy and his week, uh, 11 thoughts. Matty Cox from Three Man Weave. That's a tough booking, everybody. Yeah, you know, these, uh, these kids forget where they, where they came from, Kelly.
1:14
That's what they do. Matty Cox is on here, and Tyler Shoemaker on college football a little later on the show. Plus, we'll look at, uh, make miss playoffs in the NFL.
1:22
We'll do some survivor talk, which is our habit here on, uh, Tuesdays, and power rankings. Yeah. Pug them in, power them up. I think we finally got the power rankings right. Finally. Only took 10 weeks. I think so too.
1:36
Yeah. Only took 10 weeks. Me and you are pretty similar again too. Yeah. Last week was more fun because there was violent movement, right- Violent... in our power rankings. A violent disagreement is what there was.
1:47
There was violent movement on our power rankings. Yeah. This week, not so much, but yeah, some fine-tuning. Mm. I think we're in the fine-tuning stretch. I hope so.
1:54
Well, uh, that, that will help win some bets at some point. Mm-hmm.
1:57
Last night, in case you missed it, Philadelphia and Green Bay, and when I say in case y- and when I say in case you missed it, maybe you had YouTube TV and you missed it.
2:05
Can I just say this about the YouTube TV, ESPN, uh, dispute, which- Sure... is ongoing. Probably shouldn't, but sure. Why? Well, no, I just, I just want to say this.
2:12
It w- it would, it, it would be nice if they solved it. It would be nice. [laughs] That would be nice, yes. That's all I'm gonna say. For a lot of people, yeah. That's all I'm gonna say.
2:20
Uh, and I'm just, and I'm just saying, you know, the, the discount could be made easier. That's all I'm saying. All right, Philadelphia at Green Bay.
2:26
Philadelphia wins it 10 to seven, bookending week number 10 in the NFL with two 10 and seven games.
2:33
Remember, the Broncos beat the Raiders last Thursday night 10 to seven, and the Eagles do it here tonight, or last night, 10 to seven at Lambeau. Um, and an interesting game in many ways. Let us begin guessing lines.
2:47
Now, first of all, Green Bay first drive, fourth in inches at the Philadelphia 41. Kelly, they eschew, it's the first of three times we're gonna say this word. Yes. They eschew the 59-yard field goal try. They go for it.
2:59
Love gets two. Mm-hmm. Packers offensive line, by the way, moved early, uncalled. Yeah, absolutely. But then after a Jalen Hunt sack on the next play, they had to punt.
3:08
Philadelphia, multiple Eagles move early in a Tuchus Bush formation for their first first down, uncalled. That led to a third and eight at the Green Bay 24.
3:19
Hurts for 10, but the ball poked out by Edgerrin Cooper, recovered by Keyshawn Nixon. Green Bay then fourth and one, own 45, false start called. That's a three and out. They were gonna go for it, perhaps.
3:30
Philadelphia three and out. Green Bay fourth and two, own 46. They try to draw Philly offside. They take the delay. They punt. Three and out from Philly, three and out from Green Bay. Philly punts.
3:38
Green Bay second and 10 at the Philadelphia 27. Love takes his second straight sack in the sequence, this time by Nakobe Dean, tries to make a play with the ball. He fumbles it, recovered by Jalen Phillips.
3:48
And Philadelphia and Green Bay scoreless at the half. The first scoreless first half since 2023, since the 2023 season. None this year. None. None last year. And the first on Monday Night Football since 2009. Wow. Yeah.
4:04
Okay. Second half, third quarter, Philadelphia first drive. They get a Jake Elliott field goal. The scoreless tie has been snapped. Three to nothing, Eagles. Green Bay then fourth and nine at the Philly 41.
4:17
Kelly, they eschew a 59-yard field goal try. Love intended for Bo Melton after Dobbs couldn't reel it in a potentially big pass on the previous play. Yeah. Incomplete. Philadelphia threw it out.
4:28
Green Bay, they get to the Philly 35, but then an illegal formation. Incomplete, incomplete. They eschew, that's the last one, a 58-yard field goal try.
4:40
Melton has his toe on the line on the punt when he tries to pin the Eagles in, uh, the Eagles in jail there at the half yard line instead of touchback. Philly still up three to nothing.
4:50
We'll get b- we'll get to why the eschew is so important, of course. Moving on here. Philadelphia four plays, 80 yards. Hurts to Saquon for 41. Almost all of it yakked to DeVonta for 36. Touchdown, 10 to nothing, Eagles.
5:00
10:35 left in the game. Then Green Bay crosses midfield for the fourth straight time. This time, what happens here? This time, as he loses his place. Let's see here. [singing] Saquon four times. Oh, here we go.
5:17
Um, this time they cash it in. 11 plays, 75 yards, 4:46. Jacobson from six, 10 to seven, Philly, 5:49 left. Not so fast, Eagles. Then Ili- uh, the Eagles get to second and eight at the Green Bay 43 with 2:34 left.
5:30
Okay, this is where the coaching part of the game, besides the eschewing, here's where the coaching part of the game really takes forefront, uh, center stage.
5:39
And when I say takes center stage, I mean what the heck was anybody doing? So Philly's up 10 to seven now. They get it to second and eight at the Green Bay 43 with 2:34 left. Green Bay uses their first timeout.
5:51
Now, Philly had just run Saquon four straight times for 15 yards total, but then they decide, "Well, let's try to end this with a pass," right?
6:00
'Cause it's still, what it'll be, like two timeouts left in the two minute warning. They can't end it, but they can really Really put a nail in the coffin, let's, let's say Yeah. They decide to pass. Incomplete.
6:10
Stops the clock. Then third and eight, incomplete again, and they punt the football.
6:16
So Green Bay now, from their own 10 with 2:18 left, with two timeouts, they get it to fourth and one at their own 44, and then def- uh, Eagles defensive tackle Moro Ojomo is yelling, "Inside zone this way.
6:29
Inside zone this way." You can hear it on the broadcast. Jacobs, Josh Jacobs hit by Jalen Phillips. Reed Blankenship knocks the ball out of Jacobs' hands. Philly recovers it.
6:39
So Philly now, at the Green Bay 37, up three with 1:22 left. You figure, "Well, it's over, right?" So they end up fourth and six at the Green Bay 35 with 33 seconds left. Green Bay's out of timeouts now.
6:51
The only play here, Kelly, is to pooch this. Yes. You gotta pooch this. The only play. It's the only play. You pin Green Bay deep, or worst case scenario, the punter puts it in the end zone, it's a touchback. Yes.
7:05
Instead, Nick Sirianni apparently loses his mind and they decide to go for it. And Hurts then decides, "Why don't I throw this deep to A.J. Brown?" Incomplete.
7:18
So Green Bay, from their own 36 with 27 seconds left, has a puncher's chance at this. And they get an 18-yard play, a Love to Melton hookup. They get it to first and 10 at the Philly 46 with five seconds left. All right.
7:33
46. Remember all that eschewing before? All right, those were 59s and 57s and 58s. All right. So Philly calls timeout here. But McManus, Brandon McManus, gets off a practice kick when he's really not supposed to.
7:48
Oh, yeah. They're supposed to stop him from doing that after the timeout. But he gets it off, and the Packers get the information that, yeah, this 64-yard try is gonna end up a few yards short.
8:01
It was a good kick, but he just couldn't get it there. Right. Uh, and smart by McManus, right? Yes. 'Cause we heard the, we heard the booth official f- uh, explaining it, that there's not, it's not a penalty.
8:10
The ref is supposed- That's right... to go there to stop it. Ref, it's on the ref. And McManus was like, "Yo, run this, snap this." On the ref. "Let me get a kickoff."
8:15
So armed with that information and the extra stoppage here with the Philly timeout, Matt LaFleur wakes up and says, "Hmm, maybe with five seconds we should run an out pattern and get a few more yards."
8:27
So they do at that point, even though they weren't going to. But Philly's timeout and the practice kick perhaps sort of jogged his brain. They try it incomplete anyway.
8:36
So with two seconds left- Did, did they really try, though? Eh, it was done. Not, not much of a try. Right? Like, Jordan Love had a lot more confidence in McManus than, uh, LaFleur did, apparently.
8:44
[laughs] Well, it should also be noted that Lucas Haversick was sitting on the bench. Now, Lucas Haversick is the Packers kicker who came in when McManus got hurt initially.
8:54
Lucas Haversick, also in his time kicking for the Packers, owns the Packers' long f- longest field goal ever record, franchise history. He's sitting on the bench.
9:05
Kelly now is impressed with my recap, 'cause he didn't pick up all this information. That was well done. Wait, he was eligible to play? Yes. Wow. And ladies and gentlemen, with two seconds left, McManus from 64.
9:16
Let's just say you and I might have been able to kick it just as well. It went, how can I put this? Sideways. It stood no chance. So, so, like, every one of these situations, right, like, the coach talks to the kicker.
9:29
Like, "Where, where's your range from," right? "What did you hit pregame? I know the condition"... Like, you should know. Think about everything that we just went through in that game. Yeah. In a 10 to seven...
9:38
This, this 10 to seven game was way more interesting than the 10 to seven Broncos-Raiders game. 'Cause this one, again, Sirianni, what the hell were you doing going for that? Why didn't you pooch punt it? That is...
9:49
We do a Dumbo of the Week thing on the Megapod. Oh, it's, it's- I don't know if you beat that. I really don't... Dumbo of the year. Uh, LaFleur not figuring out that last field goal situation.
9:59
Also juxtaposed with the three times earlier in the game where he's like, "Eh, we don't need the three points." Mm-hmm. Right? Mm-hmm.
10:06
Because you get in this mode of football where you're allergic to field goals, apparently, in this day and age. Um, then the Eagles, Moro Ojomo calling out the fourth and short play. You know.
10:17
I mean, there's so much of that in that ballgame. There was so much in there. Jalen Phillips having a big, uh, performance for the Eagles. No, he was awesome. Yeah. He was awesome.
10:24
And I just have to say this about the, uh, the Green Bay Packers. And this will, this will come up in our NFL power rankings, I believe, after this game. But if you...
10:32
We talk about, like, you throw up these teams however you want them in the NFC, and who knows who ends up in the, in the, uh, Super Bowl. It's getting really hard to consider the Packers as one of these.
10:43
Um, they beat the Lions the very first game of the year really, really well. Mm-hmm. But you could say, hey, that was the first game for both Lions coordinators, right? You could make that case.
10:55
Here are the other Packers wins this year: Washington, Cincinnati, Arizona, Pittsburgh. Here are their losses now: Cleveland, Carolina, and finally this one last night, and of course the tie with Dallas.
11:09
That is not a good resume of games in the least bit. So I don't know how...
11:15
You can't put them that high in your power rankings, just because they haven't beaten anybody besides that first Lions game the opening day of the season.
11:23
And w- what's sad is I have, I have slightly more concern about them than I do about the Philadelphia Eagles, and they only have two losses. Neither offense can get going. I- The defenses look good I don't know.
11:33
On the other hand, the Eagles have beaten all the good teams. They got tiebreakers- Yeah... over all their competition. And when push comes to shove, when Tuchus push comes to shove, do you not trust this team? I do.
11:46
I still do. Coming back on a Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:03
Want to bet smarter? Start with smarter insights. Right now you can check out Greg Peterson's college basketball best bets, Tuesday's Maxin, and Tyler Shoemaker's Week 12 college football picks.
12:13
And later today you can check out Zach Cohen's NBA picks and props, Jonathan Davis' NHL best bets, and Wes Reynolds' Bermuda championships. You ever been to Bermuda, by the way? No. Oh, it's lovely.
12:22
Would love to go, though. It's lovely. Unlock every article with VSiN Pro. The sports equinox special gives you full access through May 1st, 2026 for just $120.
12:31
Sign up now at vsin.com/subscribe and stay sharp through the springtime. Skill Alexander, we get tweets beating the book. Uh, this is from, uh [laughs] this is from JasonH11.
12:42
I needed Kelly to interpret this for me, but now I understand. He says, uh, "Gilly, what's with all the sneezing? Are you coming down with a cold?" I think he, he, you, you're correct. He meant the eschewing.
12:50
Eschewing, yes. Yes. Uh, this is, uh, let's see. The, the temps are dropping, though. And, and whenever the temps drop, I immediately get a little, a little coldish too. Chad Varino.
13:00
Ever listen to a podcast and think you know what someone looks like? I thought Kelly had long hair by the sound of his voice. I really enjoyed waking up to this twe- uh, tweet.
13:08
Anyways, I have a JT for MVP 150 to 1 and a Colts Super Bowl ticket at 100 to 1. Tell me I have a shot at least one of them. Uh, yeah, you got a shot at least one of them. I, that's exactly what I replied.
13:17
[laughs] I said, "One of those has a shot, for sure." [laughs] It's not the JT one, I don't think. But I, i- in a different world it would be. Uh, Buddhist Man quoting us, "Gil, we got a show today.
13:27
Kelly, maybe you'll like it, maybe you won't." [laughs] Pick 10, "Correct. Gil, I was losing my mind. Punt the ball." Joe E- I, I was so confused. I still can't get over it...
13:37
Joe Abraham, "Let's throw a low percentage bomb on fourth and seven instead of a 10-yard pass to clinch the game." A- as we were laughing about on air, the, the fade to A.J.
13:45
Brown, as if not enough has been, has been made of all year, Gil, of how effective this play has been, right? No, A.J. Brown hasn't been upset or anything, right? No. Like, this has worked every time. Every time.
13:55
Just rule that out. It's a very reliable play. Murphy11821, "Guys, I think, uh, listening to VSiN has affected me subconsciously. Got out of bed last night scuffling my way to the bathroom in the dark.
14:04
Wife asked what time it is. I glanced at my radio alarm clock and replied, '2:20, juice to the over.'" [laughs] Wow. Uh, Ginger, "Sam Darnold MVP 10 to 1 if the Seahawks beat the Rams this week.
14:15
Doesn't this move way down?" Yeah, if he has a lot to do with it, it d- it would. It would, for sure. Yeah. Uh, one other p- sort of pet peeve from last night's, uh, football game. In, in the same way that...
14:27
Have you, y- do you ever... Does this bother you as much as I do? That, that somebody says something and it catches sort of media fire, right? Mm-hmm.
14:35
Meaning it, it's v- it becomes sort of viral, where everyone's repeats the same thing over and over again, and no one actually fact checks it.
14:43
So in the same way that, remember when Jayden Daniels got hurt, everybody's saying, "Oh, same stadium, same down, same opponent." And then everybody says same yard line, right? Okay.
14:53
If the opponent's four-yard line and your own four-yard line is the same yard line, then it's the same yard line. But it's not the same yard line, right? Stop saying that.
15:01
[laughs] RG3 was at his own four, Jayden Daniels was at their four. Anyway, so in the same way that that just no one ever checks that, right? Right, right. And they just go with it.
15:10
Everybody talking about the, uh, on the lead up to the game yesterday about the, uh, oh, the Packers were the one who submitted this, uh, this tush push thing. They were the ones.
15:20
Man, I think the Eagles are gonna try to troll them with multiple tush pushes, right? Or that kind of thing. Okay.
15:25
The real story is, right, and I guess I wish people would, like, before they run with something like that, which I... The league office used the Packers as the team to submit that proposal. Why?
15:39
Because the Packers don't actually have an owner, and so no owner would say no to it. That's why the Packers ended up being the team to say, to be, to be the lead team, quote-unquote, on trying to ban the tush push.
15:52
So that's just another little pet peeve of mine. Yeah. Yeah. So there's that. And then we got the whole, uh, tush push experience, uh, again last night of just, uh, you know, people... See, the, separate issues, Gil.
16:03
Officiating, I, I, this is gonna drive me nuts. This is the, this is the thing that's gonna drive me nuts, of the false starts on the tush push- Yeah... and the, the officials not calling it.
16:12
Everybody just wants to immediately go ban the tush push. I- it's two separate issues. If you want to ban the tush push, you know it. I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna argue it.
16:21
I do think if I was an Eagles fan, I would write, I would write in stone they had to ban a play just because they couldn't stop us. I would leave it at that.
16:29
It is not the tush push's problem, though, that the officials cannot do their job on that play. How many times have we, have we talked about that? It, it's wild, and it just keeps happening every week.
16:37
I'll s- I'll say it for the, the 20th time. They've always had the wrong argument. They've always- Yep... tried to s- to, to think up a new argument, right? Aesthetically unpleasing. Um, causes too many injuries.
16:52
No data to support that. Now it's it can't be officiated. That's a new one this year. [laughs] It's not their fault. Right? It's not their fault if they can't officiate.
17:00
The only proper argument against is defense can't push its own players, and it used to be that they could. And as, when we just go back to those, I mean, that's the, that's the argument. Mm-hmm.
17:11
That's why you can't have this play. Offense can push their own players, but defense can't? Competitive disadvantage. That's the argument.
17:17
Like, do you- All the other stuff is just made up on the fly, like, it's like, uh, Jon Lovitz. Yeah. Uh, the, the, yeah, it's, it's aesthetically unpleasing. That's the ticket. [laughs] All right.
17:27
As a Commanders fan- Yeah... coming from a Commanders fan- Yeah... do you want this play outlawed? I, y- I'll go back to the playoff game.
17:36
Remember when all, all the Commanders were just, like, jumping offsides all the time? Mm-hmm, yeah. Just making a mockery, like, "Oh, well, we're just gonna jump two seconds before the play." Uh, do I want it banned? No.
17:47
Not really. Okay. I, see, see, and this is where, like, I think there's a lot of people that would say yes. Right.
17:52
And I would worry about Joe Pepa and all the Eagles fans in the world for the rest of your lifetime being like, "They had to l- they had to get rid of a play just because of us."
18:02
But if it got banned based on the argument that, well, we just figured defensive players, if they can't push, then you can't do this, offensive players can't push. If they banned it based on that, I'd be okay with that.
18:11
That's fine. But you can't ban it on the other stuff. You can't ban it on the other stuff. You can't let the Eagles walk away with a victory- Well-... from that, from that settlement...
18:19
well, we can't, we can't officiate it, as it turns out, so. I can't, it's just... God, God knows why. Though I will say, on that first fourth and short yesterday, the Eagles... I know the Packers- Yeah...
18:27
didn't get called for it. They were so... They moved so early, and they didn't catch it. It's, it's laughable. It is. They, they moved so early. It's laughable, but, like, I'm not blaming the Eagles for that.
18:37
Get it together, officials. All right, AFC play- AFC and NFC playoff picture in terms of make, miss playoffs. Um, we wanna go through this. Sometimes we'll do segments that will produce bets. We did the number one seed.
18:49
I've been saying Patriots for the last, uh, few weeks that we've done it. Hope people have gotten on that. AFC playoff picture make, miss. I don't... There's only one...
18:58
I, I don't know how you feel about this, Kelly, but as I looked at all of these in both the AFC and NFC, and this dovetails with what we were talking about yesterday, that, are there really any playoff positions up for grabs?
19:07
Yeah. Very few. Very limited. I look at the AFC playoff. You see the makes and the misses. Makes on the left, misses on the right. And it, you know, reflects exactly what our conversation was yesterday.
19:20
All the minuses above the horizontal line are on the left to make, with the exception of the Steelers, because that's the AFC North playoff position. And so you see the one minus number, um, on the Ravens below that.
19:34
Um, so, Bal- uh, oh, oh, and the Jaguars have a, uh, who are currently in playoff position, have a, have a plus position because people assume, as I do, that the Chiefs will overcome them- Mm-hmm...
19:44
for that final playoff spot. The only play here that you can talk me into is the Bengals 10 to 1 to make the playoffs. That's the only one.
19:55
And again, we talked a little bit about this yesterday, which is to say that if the Bengals beat the Steelers this week, we'll get to that in survivors, in our survivor segment later, but if the Bengals are to beat the Steelers this week, then all of a sudden, no matter what the Ravens do, the Bengals will only be one game out of the lead in the AFC North.
20:16
And this just in, Joe Burrow looks like a Thanksgiving return. Mm-hmm. That's what they're shooting for. So if that happens this week, all of a sudden 10 to 1 to make the playoffs becomes live.
20:30
Because again, it's a very weak division. So I'll bring that up 'cause we've done this before when we've talked about the North. It's literally the only make or miss bet to make to me.
20:40
Wouldn't you ra- wouldn't you rather play the Bengals 15 to 1 to win the North? Oh, uh, uh, absolutely would. Yeah. I haven't gotten there yet, but I'm just saying- Okay...
20:46
in this vacuum, that's the only thing I would do.
20:49
So- There's no other make or miss playoff bet I could, I could justify The only one I'll go back to, I brought it up last week when we ran through this stuff too, 'cause, uh, y- I wanted to bring this back, right?
20:56
'Cause we, we, we said this last week, and then we said this yesterday again of like, "Well, we're kinda, we're kinda sure of what we feel like these playoff pictures are looking like," and it's, I mean, we're, it's only week 11 here.
21:07
Yeah. Um, the Jaguars miss to miss is the only number I could play, uh, on that AFC board. Minus 180 to miss, yeah. Minus 180 to miss. Yeah.
21:16
And the only other one, we pointed this out last time, 'cause there was a stark difference in this the last time, where the Ravens number was much juicier to go win the division. It's only a 20 cent difference now, Gil.
21:26
They're minus 260 over at DraftKings to win the AFC North, minus 280 to make the playoffs. I'd actually probably, I'd probably lose the 20 cents of value and play them to make the playoffs if I was gonna play that.
21:37
Again, Ravens' schedule's super easy. That's why the, the, quote-unquote, "confidence" there. Now ask me those other Bengals questions you just asked. What were you just about to say about the Bengals?
21:46
About winning the division. You said beyond the division. Now, you said, "W- would you rather play, instead of playing the 10 to 1 to make the playoffs- Yeah, playoffs or to win the AFC North...
21:54
15 to 1 to m- to win the division- Yeah... would be the play." Right, correct. Yes, yeah. Yes, would be the play. Now, beyond that, right? People, 'cause people are gonna then extend, "What about AFC?
22:03
What about Super Bowl?" Um, Joe Burrow doesn't play defense, does he? [laughs] Right. That's, that's the only thing I would say on those. No, no, he does not. Yeah. So, uh, so no to those.
22:12
But yes, division greater than make playoffs. And then the NFC, literally, Kelly, I don't think there is one. I, there's, there's nothing. There's nothing. I mean, un- un- unless you wanted to play the Bears to miss.
22:23
Bears, Bears to miss at minus 170-ish. But, but, like, Gil- Yeah... I, even, even as much as I believe that's gonna happen- I wouldn't play it... I wish, I wish I had more teams to challenge them than the 49ers. Right.
22:33
I, I don't think there is a play that really leaps off the page. Me neither. Yeah. All right, let's talk some hockey on the other side. Jay Kahn with an early season hockey heat check and all his plays today in the NHL.
22:44
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:47
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:03
Little breaking news from the National Basketball Association, from Shams Charania. The Dallas Mavericks and owner Patrick Dumont,
23:12
Dumont, are expected to fire GM Nico Harrison 10:00 AM Central, that's, uh, top of the hour here- Mm-hmm... on Tuesday, sources tell Shams and Tim MacMahon.
23:24
Um, no truth to the rumor that Patrick Dumont's first words in the press conference will be like, "Wait, you traded Luka?" He's just coming out of the, uh, the funk of that now.
23:32
Yeah, well, Nico said when he made the move, "Defense wins championships," Gil. Yeah. They've got the fourth r- uh, best defense in the NBA right now. Do they? The offense, though, 29th. They're three and eight.
23:43
Or as Steve Spurrier said- "Ungood"... "Well, suppose some teams are two and eight." [laughs] That's Steve Spurrier.
23:51
Pe- Pelicans are two and eight, the only team that's worse than the Mavs thus far in the Western Conference. In the e- in the Eastern Conference, the Nets and Pacers are both one and nine. Poor Pacers.
24:01
Uh, uh, actually, let's play the- And, and the Wizards are one and 10. Let's play the whole offense/defense game.
24:05
So meanwhile, the Lakers sitting there with the seventh-best offense, 23rd-best defense, but what's the record? Eight and three. Defense wins championships, says Nico Harrison. Defense wins championships. Yeah.
24:16
This had to happen. It was coming. It was coming. It was coming. Hey, look, Cooper Flagg was his last bailout, but man, they went into, they went into this season with such terrible roster construction.
24:27
The idea that you're gonna run out Cooper Flagg and have him be your point guard and not much depth behind him... for, to begin the season was always a little absurd. It has not worked out very well so far.
24:37
Uh, it's j- I guess it's just a little sad that Cooper Flagg had his best game of the season so far last night I was just ab- I was just about to call up his, uh, his exact, his exact stats. Pardon me.
24:46
But it also happened in a game that they were controlling for the vast majority, should've won, and the Bucs came back and won the thing. Yeah. Cooper Flagg with, uh, 26 in defeat.
24:56
26 and nine, nine boards as well from Cooper Flagg. Let's talk some hockey. Jay Hahn joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @JayHahn4. That's J-H-A-H-N4.
25:08
Co-host of The Point, Monday through Friday, 1:00 to 3:00 Eastern, and the Fantasy Hockey Show, Fridays at 2:00 PM Eastern, uh, on Sirius XM NHL.
25:15
Also co-host of NHL Fantasy on Ice podcast on NHL Fan- Good God, I gotta g- g- go for, like, a minute with everything you're doing. Stay working, man. How you doing, Jake? Busy. Busy, like you just said, Gil.
25:27
Very busy this time of the year. There's snow on the ground, it's hockey weather, and you guys just went over the news with the Dallas Mavericks.
25:33
We've somehow made it to November 11th in the NHL season without firing anybody- [laughs]... which is a very long run for the NHL. So coaches beware.
25:41
Uh, I think everybody, you know, the hot seats get cranked up a little bit, but there's, there's no truly bad teams in the National Hockey League this year. I think that's kinda why we're seeing this.
25:49
Uh, but the closer and closer we get to Christmas, you know, maybe even American Thanksgiving, you might see some, uh, some of those hot seats cranked up in the NHL. Usually we got, like, two guys fired by now.
25:57
Can I ask you a, uh, a sports talk radio question about hockey and, and the, and coaches? Yeah. We have seen, I mean, we could list them, right?
26:04
But here in Vegas alone we could, we could list a couple coaches that got fired in a fashion that you wouldn't see in other sports. In other words, "Hey, just, you just came off a Stanley Cup final a little while ago.
26:16
We're, we're gonna fire you." Um, or we've seen in the case of the Washington Capitals, right? Like, you win a Stanley Cup. It's like, okay, y- we've seen enough of you.
26:23
Hockey seems to have the most r- the, uh, the highest rate of that where coaches get fired after massive success, like, a minute ago. Why is that the case in hockey as opposed to all other sports?
26:39
W- we've spent shows and shows and shows trying to figure it out, and I, I, I do think there's some knee-jerk reaction to it. There's a little bit of what have you done for me lately.
26:47
Uh, but in a couple of those examples you mentioned, Gil, and I think the one that s- stands out the most was Washington winning the cup and Barry Trotz. Now, it wasn't technically scored as a firing.
26:55
I think it was more so a contract- Right... not being renewed and a, a coach not coming back. Now he's actually a general manager for the Nashville Predators. But it's, I, I, I looked at that and I thought, "Really?"
27:05
Like, this, this guy was one of the reasons why you won and, and was such a main... You'd think you would prioritize this over everything. Money shouldn't matter in this type of situation.
27:13
So it leaves me scratching my head. I prefer the teams with coaching consistency, guys that have been there for a while. John Cooper in Tampa Bay, Rod Brind'Amour in Carolina.
27:22
I can't name too many more, Gil, because most of the guys have only [laughs] been there for, like, two years because we keep continuing to fire the league.
27:27
There's only really a handful of guys that have been coaches for longer than five years in this league. Barry, it's always been interesting to me about hockey why it's like that.
27:35
What about the, uh, we look at the Stanley Cup, uh, market to win the Stanley Cup, and I know we're only, you know, 15 or so, 15 to 17 games into a, uh, 82-game schedule.
27:45
But you, uh, you know, I also say this about hockey. Unlike other professional sports in North America, you have eight teams, right, bunched up at the very top, and that's unlike what we see.
27:57
To win it all, we're talking about. That's unlike what we see in other sports.
28:00
Do you believe that any of those eight teams, Lynch, Hurricanes, Golden Knights, Panthers, Oilers, Stars, Lightning, Devils, you think any of them can win the cup? Well, I think all of them s- could stake a claim to it.
28:11
I think the two that we have seen play in the last two Stanley Cup finals, Edmonton and Florida, have shown a lot of vulnerabilities.
28:16
Now, Florida did get a nice win in Vegas on the road last night, maybe steady the ship a little bit, but they've got some huge injuries. Edmonton's just doing the Oilers thing. They do this every year.
28:25
October, November, we're asking questions about goal tending, depth scoring, defense, and then they somehow seem to find it late in the season. So I, I don't know if I wanna play this game with Edmonton again.
28:35
I'm gonna need to see life from them before I, I buy into any sort of cup future market.
28:40
A- Colorado's shown they're probably the team to beat, at least at the moment, but the team to beat in November sometimes isn't the team to beat come springtime, so I'd be careful, you know, jumping on them, especially at those current odds.
28:50
I think if I were to play anything, I would go with a team I had strong pre-season perceptions on that's just maybe not playing up to their standards just yet, but I still believe in long-term.
28:59
I look at a team like the Washington Capitals, 25 to 1 on your board right there. That's not a bad number. I- in a metro side of the bracket, that seems pretty gettable. And the Winnipeg Jets as well.
29:08
As tough as the Central is, they've proven a lot to me over the last couple of years. Uh, they lost in the second round of the playoffs last year.
29:15
I think at 25 to 1, that's probably the healthiest number you can get, where you can get a bit of a sweat. You could get a team that's, that's likely to make the playoffs.
29:22
It is gonna be a gauntlet for them to go on a deep run, but 25 to 1 on the Jets doesn't look like a bad number to me. All right.
29:27
Well, since you bring up the Capitals, before we get to your picks today, I feel compelled to ask this question. So Alex Ovechkin just got his 900th goal, right? Extending his, uh, all-time goal scoring record.
29:39
Give me a yes-no price, a Jay Hahn yes-no price, he's 40 years old, on Alex Ovechkin scoring 1,000 goals. Oh. I'm gonna put, I, I think no has to be the favorite in this situation.
29:52
There's a lot of speculation this could be his last year. If this is his last year, there's, there's no shot that he's going to get it. He's gonna need to play a couple more years.
29:59
So I'm gonna set no at, like, minus 250, minus 300, something like that. I'm, I'm gonna make it pretty chalky. And I think yes has to pay out pretty good in this situation, Gil, because it's, it's tough.
30:10
1,000 is a lot of goals. And again, he's gonna have to play for at least a couple more years and probably score at a, at a good clip. And his scoring rate has gone down this year. I, I hope to see him get hot here soon.
30:20
Uh, so I, as much as I really want it to happen, I'd love to see him go for 1,000, I, I think it's, I think it's gotta be the plus money in this situation. I think that no price is getting steamed right now, Jake.
30:29
People like that little no price for you. [laughs] Um, right now. But you're right. I mean, impossible? No. 'Cause who knows what he's thinking at this point. All right. What about your plays today? What do you got?
30:39
A lot, a lot of props on the card, but I'll start with some sides and totals. I, I like the Dallas Stars money line on the road in Ottawa. I just, just to play t- what I think is on the better team.
30:47
Now, Ottawa's won a few games in a row here, kind of steadied things a little bit. Uh, but I do like Dallas on the, on the money line, getting a pretty decent price here.
30:55
Again, just a team that I, I really buy in, I really believe in. I'll go out west to the Winnipeg-Vancouver game. I like the under six.
31:01
Now, I do wanna see confirmed goaltenders for this one, but if it is going to be Connor Hellebuyck versus Thatcher Demko, an all-American goalie clash, maybe two guys that will be teammates for the, the American team at, at the upcoming Olympics.
31:13
I like those two goaltenders to go toe-to-toe under six in that game. And the San Jose Sharks, just still not getting enough respect in the market, Gil. Uh, you could throw Anaheim in this as well.
31:22
Now, Anaheim-Colorado's probably the game of the night, but I like San Jose. I'll take them plus one and a half just to play it a little safer. I don't mind a sprinkle on the money line as well in Minnesota.
31:32
Uh, the Wild, a team I really believed in coming to this year, have been very disappointing so far, and San Jose is on the ups.
31:38
They, I, and I still don't think the market has fully reacted to the fact that this Sharks team is not bad. Looks like they might get Will Eklund back tonight as well, which is a nice piece of that top six.
31:46
So I like the Sharks to at least keep it close in Minnesota tonight. Any prop bets tonight? I got lots. I'll, I'll give you a handful here. Please.
31:54
Mikko Rantanen over, over two and a half shots in the Dallas-Ottawa game that I mentioned. I, I do like the Stars in that game. Brant Clark over one and a half shots for the LA Kings on the road in Montreal.
32:05
I like that one. And look to some Boston Bruins props, guys. Uh, the Maple Leafs cannot keep the puck out of their net right now. They lost to the Bruins in Toronto over the weekend.
32:14
Now they get another crack at them in Boston on Tuesday night. Uh, I don't have a play on the game, but Morgan Geekie for a point. Uh, on the other side, William Nylander over two and a half shots on goal. I like that.
32:26
And, uh, you, you mentioned Washington. Washington-Carolina's another good game tonight. I like Nick Ehlers for a point at home for the Carolina Hurricanes.
32:33
And you could play a shot prop over two and a half at plus money. Don't mind Svechnikov as well for, for shots or points in that, in that game, uh, between Carolina and Washington.
32:42
Jake Firen, were you trying to get in and say something, or is that what you were looking for, props? I was gonna ask, Jake, Sh- Sharks, Sharks were supposed to be, like, the worst team in the league heading in, right?
32:50
Right, Jake? They, they have been the last two years, and they landed Macklin Celebrini, who looks like an absolute stud. He, he looks like a generational talent.
32:59
Everybody in Canada here is debating should this kid be on the Olympic team already. Same with Connor Bedard in Chicago.
33:04
Uh, now Celebrini's a, a year younger, so only a second year in the league, but he's making a strong case for himself. He should be on that Olympic team, and, uh, he's incredible.
33:12
There's other good players on that Sharks team, too, and I, I think they're a little ahead of schedule. Like you said, Kelly, they were supposed to be the worst team in the league.
33:18
They do not look anything close to the worst team in the league to me so far. Jake, we appreciate it. 10 days after the Blue Jays', uh, game seven loss. People over it? People still talking about it? Oh, man.
33:27
No, I think we've finally moved on. You s- you're still hearing a little bit of murmurs about it, but it's, you know, there's snow on the ground now. We got a, we got a full snowstorm here.
33:35
[laughs] So everyone's thinking it's hockey weather now. Wow. Get the shovels out. We're, we've moved past baseball season for now. Does feel like two months ago that this went already. It's amazing. It's amazing.
33:42
Jake, thank you so much. Appreciate it. Thanks, boys. Have a great night. Jake Hahn, everybody. How about some Survivor talk? Let's do that and more. It's the Numbers Game right here at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:52
[rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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34:40
We get tweets at Beating The Book, and let's start it out with one from Vegas Sparky, who says, "Shout out to all the military veterans. Happy Veterans Day, and thank you for your service." Yes- Absolutely...
34:50
Vegas Sparky, absolutely. And Kelly, we have a couple here, uh, at VSiN who are, we are close to. I, I think many people know Dave Ross, uh, of course, by the books.
34:59
Dave Ross, uh, Marines, uh, served, served, so absolutely Dave, and then Chris Foster on our own crew. Our audio op, he was Air Force Security Forces, so thank you to both those gentlemen for their service.
35:10
It is, uh, uh, always days like this where it's just those guys doing jobs the real heroes out there that we, we could never do. I could never do, Gil, that's for sure.
35:19
Deep Thoughts with Chris Foster, hopefully a segment in the future. We're working on that one, yeah. We're working on it. He's got, he's got deep thoughts. And then Dave Ross has some stories, huh?
35:25
He was- Oh, D- uh, Dave Ross, I could listen to him talk about his Marines days for forever, man.
35:30
It is amazing because once he tells those stories, it, you know, 'cause, 'cause everybody on a day like this says, "Oh, thank you for your service," right? Mm-hmm.
35:37
And it's, you know, it's like, b- by the way, lampooned in, [clears throat] pardon me, in Curb Your Enthusiasm by Larry David, right?
35:44
It's sort of a, for many, it's just a line, but when you hear stories like that, it really does hit home. You're like, "Oh, man," like, this is just on a level that mere mortals like ourselves couldn't even get.
35:54
Yeah, just never. Yeah. Just never. Are you kidding me? Yeah, n- no, no dice. Jim Campbell I know listens to us every day, um, and he is out, he is out there doing, uh, something for the Wounded Warrior Project.
36:04
He's r- out there riding his Peloton today. Think he's trying, trying to get 100 miles today, raising money for the Wounded Warrior Project. Wow. Listening to us right now, so Jim, appreciate you as well.
36:13
Brandon Webb talking about, uh, the previous tweet where someone couldn't imagine what you look like, Kelly. He says, "I was so very wrong when I thought I knew what Amal Shah looked like based only on his voice."
36:22
[laughs] Tom F., "Kelly is so right. When the tush push is finally banned, it'll be a feather in the cap and a great troll opportunity for us Birds fans." Scott Barbarack, "Gil, awesome Jon Lovitz reference.
36:32
Glad I wasn't drinking anything when you said it. I would've spit up. A true LOL moment." Thank you. JT Speed to Burn, this is great. "The officials can't officiate pass interference or roughing the passer either.
36:42
Why not ban them, too?" It's kind of my point. Yep. Joebalicious, "Playoffs? Playoffs? May I submit Week 8, Jets-Bengals. As you said, Gil, Joe Burrow doesn't play defense. Love the show as always."
36:53
Thank you, Joebalicious. Jamie Samuel, "Love the show as usual. Are we sure," this is a great comment, "are we sure that Joe Burrow returning after injury can do better than Joe Flacco has done after the past four games?
37:05
I'm checking myself into a mental institution after writing this, but Flacco has been lighting it up, and they still lose." Jamie, this is a great point that you are making.
37:15
Because, yes, we do get caught up, I'll raise my hand, right, as, as, as one of the masses who do this. We do get caught up in, "Oh, this person is better than this person."
37:25
What you are really replacing is the production, right?
37:28
So most famously, when the, uh, the Vi- not most famously, but one of the more famous things, when the Vikings first signed Kirk Cousins to a three-year, $84 million contract, I believe it was, I made the point then, maybe over three years, Kirk Cousins will be a better proposition than what Case Keenum was this past year.
37:46
But Case Keenum's production the year of the Mini- of the Minneapolis Miracle, good luck Kirk Cousins topping that.
37:53
So there is a little bit of that with Joe Burrow now replacing Joe Flacco, if Joe Flacco [laughs] is con- is to continue this heater that he's on. So that's a great point.
38:04
John Fitzgibbons, "Might skip the Survivor segment for my mental health, if you don't mind. Took the Panthers over the Bills.
38:08
You'd think it would be some consolation they both lost, but now I find myself thinking, should've gone with Chicago." Survivor. Milemarker420, Scott Kinley, "I had two Survivor, uh, two Survivor revival tickets.
38:20
Was going to be a genius last week. I took the Browns and Carolina." Oh, yeah. "Lost my third entry the week before with Green Bay. See you next year."
38:27
Jason Stark, "Hey, Gil, we need to ban the backwards pass because the officials couldn't figure out how to call a false start on the KC, uh, left tackle during an entire Super Bowl. See how stupid that reasoning sounds?"
38:37
[laughs] Jason, I don't know, are you, are, are you, you think you're arguing with me? Yeah, I don't think so. [laughs] I'm saying the same thing. It's like, I put s-
38:43
by the way, one of my pet peeves- Actually, I still don't know- What are you arguing with people? You're not arguing with me. I still don't know if they're agreeing or making fun of us now.
38:50
I, I actually don't know what's going on here between- No, we made, I, we made the point. We're on your side.
38:55
Steve the Proxy, "With Nico Harrison getting fired this morning, is he the biggest villain GM in sports history?
39:01
I mean, Jerry Krause might be not, might not be hated, but he did get s- six rings before he turned supervillain." Yeah, Jerry Krause was the first person who popped into my head as well. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Yeah.
39:11
But yeah, six rings, right? Six rings. Sean Fox Play- Sean's Fox Place, "Game was so good last night, halftime switched over to the Wiz-Pistons game, which proved to be a great game.
39:20
Flipped back to watch the fourth when the Wiz game was over, and felt like I didn't miss anything." Yeah. Yeah, I was w- I was bouncing around to a lot of NBA. The,
39:29
a- and g- I know we got Survivor to do real quick, though. C- uh, did you look at Cade Cunningham's stat line by chance? Oh, f- was it he, he shot the ball, like, 45 times or something? He had 45 field goal attempts.
39:42
46 points. He had a triple-double. 46 points. He was 14 for 45 from the field. You, you do not get, you do not get praise- [laughs]... for 45 points on 46 shots or the other way around. He- You do not...
39:54
he missed 31 shots. Yeah, no. Sorry. He missed 31 shots. Well, you gotta try to shoot that many times. I know. It's incredible. There are how many minutes in a basketball game? It is incredible, man. Wow.
40:06
And last one, DJ Jams, "Morning, Gil. Did Kelly start reading that hip-hop book? I heard him start the show off with a shout-out to Mr. Cheeks. Lights, Camera, Action, hit single.
40:14
Shout-out to the entire group, Laws Boys." [laughs] "Renee was such a great hit. Have a good day, fellas." Yeah, that shout-out might've been for another reason. [laughs] Yeah.
40:20
He, he missed the Lights, Camera, Action one. All right, Survivor. Let's do it. Hello. You play to win the game. It's time for your weekly Survivor preview with Gil and Kelly. I'm a survivor. Look at me.
40:34
Uh, at the height of her powers. Outstanding. All right, so we do this every week. Neither Kelly nor I are in this. Yeah. But we do this for those who are. 1,000 left in, uh, Circus Survivor. 1,000 entries,
40:47
each $18,178 intrinsic value. And then how many are left in s- in Grandissimo? Five? Did I hear that right? Five entries left in Grandissimo. It's five or six. One or the other. That's it. It's the list.
41:00
It's time to start talking about chopping though, right? Yeah. Well, for- Talking. I'm not saying it's gonna happen... for, for Grandissimo, you're talking about, uh- Six. We're down to six- Six... in Grandissimo, yeah.
41:10
You, you're talking, in Grandissimo, yes. Yeah. Not, not with 1,000 entries, not yet, I don't believe. No, I'm, I'm talking about Grandissimo. Yeah. All right, so here we go.
41:17
Uh, these are the six teams that have bigger spreads than three and a half points. These are the six teams that have bigger spreads than three and a half points. There are six of them.
41:27
Three I like, three I wouldn't touch. One that I wouldn't touch, the Buffalo Bills. Five and a half point favorites hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There is a Bills game later at Cleveland.
41:37
As we've seen with the Bills, though, you can't really trust them. [laughs] You can't trust this. Um, I would- I, I mean, ab- absolutely right now, right? I would certainly not play them here- Yeah...
41:45
hosting the Buccaneers. I'm with you. I'm not tempted. Baker Mayfield is gonna be in your nightmares. By the way, 551 entries still have the Bills remaining in Circus Survivor, which is, again, roughly half.
41:57
Not nearly as noteworthy a number of la- going into last week, when there was only 35 entries remaining that had the Colts.
42:04
So if you had the Colts, strategically it was a good way to play them, and then see if the carnage happened elsewhere, which it did. But, um, you know, roughly half have the Bills left. I wouldn't play them.
42:13
I wouldn't play the Steelers either, Kelly. They're hosting the Bengals. We just talked about Joe Flacco. Shoot, I don't wanna tempt that fate. Steelers are playing at Chicago, and then hosting Miami later in the season.
42:24
Can you trust the Steelers ever? Uh, I don't know, but especially not this week. I would not play this. Kind of the same one, same thing as the Bills, right?
42:31
For- It's a- it's actually, this is better to save, though, 'cause I actually think you have more future value with the Steelers. Yeah. Well, yeah. I would not host, I would not play them hosting the Bengals.
42:41
1,499 remaining have the Steelers. Still wouldn't play them. Last one I would not play of the bigger favorites on the board in the National Football League, um, is the Ravens.
42:51
The Ravens are eight-point favorites at Cleveland.
42:53
Now there is a home game against the Jets next week as well, which I think is more favorable than the division game at a really good defense, and who knows what the weather's gonna be in Cleveland.
43:04
Also, you do have the Ravens hosting Cincinnati on Thanksgiving. So not saying you're going to play it that way if you still have the Ravens left, but you may still wanna save them.
43:13
So I would not play the Ravens here for two reasons. That you have them on Thanksgiving, and they host the Jets next week. I'd kick that can down the road. Here are the three I would play.
43:20
Patriots, Thursday Night Football, 11 and a half point favorites against the Jets. The only o- other time to play the Patriots, maybe have a better time, hosting the Giants week 13?
43:30
He says with a question mark, 'cause maybe this is even better. I think this is probably better. Yeah. Yeah. Patriots Thursday night. Yes, it is a Thursday night. Yes, it is division. I don't care.
43:38
Patriots I would absolutely consider playing. The other, by the way, 923 entries have the Patriots remaining. There's really no, there's really no interesting quirk with who has what left.
43:48
By the way, this is, those numbers are going into this past week, so they're not exactly accurate. Uh, Texans at Tennessee. Texans are seven and a half point favorites at Tennessee.
43:56
Kelly, I tried to talk myself out of the Texans- Ooh... as a potential play, 'cause I'm like, "I don't know if I trust them," but then I keep looking at the Titans and I'm like, "Okay, I'd still play them."
44:05
They have to be on this list. They have to be. Especially for a lot of people that are getting, uh, to the point where they're like, "Okay, great. Great job, guys. I don't have any of those teams available." Yeah.
44:12
You probably have the Texans available. Uh, Texans do have a, uh, home game against the Raiders later in the year, but, uh, I'd still consider them this week at, uh, Tennessee. And then the other one's the Packers.
44:21
Even on a short week, after last night, at the New York Giants, you know? I still think th- they do have a home game against Minnesota and a home game against Chicago later.
44:33
There's only 418 entries heading into last week that had the Packers available. Wow. No one played the Packers, so that will remain that number. So Patriots, Texans, and Packers would be the consideration for me.
44:44
Coming back on the Numbers Game right here at VSiN, the sports betting network.
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